100th Wood Memorial | Steve Kornacki

Joins us again. Once again, we have no idea why,

but it is the Horse Racing Happy Hour.

It's a Thursday, April 3rd edition of the show ahead of the

100th Wood Memorial. When I booked this trip to New

York, Steve, I did not realize it was the 100th running of this

race. Good afternoon now.

Yeah, I had to look at that. Good afternoon.

And I think we take for granted how often we get to go to things

that are called like the 150th or 100th version of things that

are horse racing. Yeah.

And by the way, that's a very cool hat.

I'm just noticing right now. Is that is that an official wood

memorial hat or did you? Is that a homemade sticker on a

hat? So this is a homemade one.

Very nice. And Steve Kornacki, I have

excellent news. I made you one so you could have

one if you would like. 1 You always wear your Merrimack

College gear on this show, which I appreciate that you are wildly

consistent on this show. I appreciate that.

Same glasses, same Merrimack pullover.

I totally appreciate it. But yes, you, you are welcome to

to have one of the wood wood memorial hats.

How about that? We like to make these.

We pull out our Rd. trips. So we've got, we had one for

Breeders' Cup a couple years ago and this is our trip this year

that, you know, I'm bringing in Zach, my friend Barry's coming

up from Florida, that kind of stuff.

Is is this made with a a 3D printer like the trophy I got

from you guys last year? No, it's nicer than that.

Don't worry. Yeah, someone else.

It'll actually hold up a little bit.

Hey, man, I don't want to bury the lead here.

A lot of headlines around you. And yeah, it was needless.

Miss Parchment. Thank you, Zach.

Our poor producer. Zach had to use his 3D printer

to make that trophy. It just didn't make it out of

Baltimore. The the look, man, you know what

a new deal for you and a new gig.

You're going to be doing some more sports stuff.

I just wanted to say Congrats. It's been really fun having you

not just on the on the podcast, but you know, going back and

forth about bets and different things that we get to do, which

is great. But Congrats on the new deal.

We were talking right before we came on and it sounds like

you're excited about what you get to do as well.

Yeah, No, thanks for that. It's really kind of you.

And it's like, yeah, this, this is this from my standpoint,

really couldn't have worked out better.

Yeah, I get to keep doing election stuff.

But yeah, they somehow all the losing picks I've given out on

on your show, they they somehow let me still do the Triple Crown

and Breeders' Cup. So can't be more excited about

that. Yeah, NBC doesn't watch the show

is what you just heard Steve said.

So there you go. I'm just kidding, of course, but

Steve, of course, up there in New York, so we thought we'd

have him on. Head of the 100th running of the

Wood Memorial. Has Aqueduct become your home

track these days, Steve, since you made the move from Boston to

New York? I know you've been to New York

for a long. Yeah, You know, it's one of

those, I think even even when you're down here now, you don't

go out there too much, you know, spend an hour on the on the

train. If I got in the car in the

summer, if I get in the car, I can do Saratoga in 2:45 or it's

an hour on the A train, you know, out to, you know, out to

Aqueduct. It could be even longer getting

back in. So truthfully, I end up at

Saratoga more in a given year than than Aqueduct.

Yeah, funny how that works. Man.

Oh man. Yeah, of course we are off of

racing, not off the turf, but off of racing in Kentucky for

the next few days. I slept, I slept in this room

last night, Steve. This is my basement studio here

at the house. And I, we just, we didn't have

an option, unfortunately. We had a tornado touchdown about

a mile, a mile and a quarter South of here.

And so we made the right family decision to sleep in the

basement last night, but Keeneland off Friday and

Saturday, they'll run Monday and Tuesday.

So I actually get to go to 200 point preps within three days,

Steve. So I'll be able to head to the

Bluegrass after heading to the Wood.

But this coming weekend. And what you've seen so far on

the Derby trail itself, do you feel like, because we have a

sovereignty and a journalism and a tap and St. and some of these

horses that have shown up really well in these high level races.

Do you feel like you've seen the Derby winner inclusive by the

way of say, a journalism or a citizen Bowl out West this

weekend? Anyone that we might see in the

Wood Memorial? Do you think you've you've seen

them run a good race already have an idea in your head who

your top, say, two or three are going to be?

I, I think so, you know, I, I mean, the top two or three may

shuffle around based on what we see here, you know, in these

final ones. But yeah, I mean, I, I think

we've seen some, we've seen some standouts.

We've, we've got some question marks that I think surprised me

a few months ago that they'd be question marks.

But I, I suspect, yeah, we've, we've seen the, I suspect we

have. Do you have a, a Steve Kornacki

top three that I throw on you very quickly here?

And frankly, I, I, I wanted to talk just before we got into the

wood and, and the Aqueduct card and all that.

I think the Santa Anita Derby sets up that if you are, and,

and I'm going to do a radio in LA in a couple hours.

I'm just going to tell people, Steve, you don't have to know a

thing about horse racing to know that Citizen Bowl is going to

try to get the lead and keep the lead and journalism is going to

chase him and try to take him out and that's it.

That's all you got, you know, and obviously there's, there's

Barnes out there, there's, there's other very talented

horses running in that race. But those two have their styles.

They are not difficult to figure out.

And may the best horse win, essentially at Sanity on

Saturday. I mean, that's the thing about

those Santa Anita Stakes, right? They make it easy.

There's so few horses you you can figure out the dynamics

have, but no, that's I mean for a for such a short field, what a

race. And I I mean, we could talk

about it a bit later, I guess. But like I, I, I'm, I'm kind of

like, I kind of like Barnes. I think you know I've got down

on him, but you. Know, let's talk about it right

now, yeah. What do you like about Barnes?

I mean, I liked it was it was a one O 5 buyer.

I mean, everybody says, oh, he was exposed.

You know, it got blown by in the stretch and, you know, had to

race his way. And I see these we're talking

about, you know, new 3 year olds here who've run 2-3 races.

Yeah, journalism looked overpowering, you know, in that

race. It obviously, you know, which

should be probably the considered right now the the the

tentative Derby favorite. But you know, you see how fast

these things can change in one race, you know, so I, I, I mean,

I, I think a horse that could run a one O 5 buyer right now,

the second best number out there and he's run three races.

So I'm, I'm not sure, you know, we've seen the best of them and

I'm not sure journalism can do exactly what he just did.

And I, you know, if you, I saw the morning line, I think I saw

three to one on Barnes and I, if there's anything like that, I, I

would take a shot on that. Yeah, especially look that's the

that's Baffert and Juan Hernandez at Santa Anita.

I mean those two they they clip together at AI don't know, 37%

kind of hit rate together. I mean it's that's royalty out

West for sure. And I'm with you, that's an into

mischief. It's, you know, an American

pharaoh on the damn side. If we're going to talk royal

breeding, that's it. And frankly, you know, this is

non folks, a $3.2 million purchase would really certainly

make Kentucky Derby history with that one.

But it's an interesting top three in that race.

I think Beza's really interesting coming out of a

maiden win with a, you know, a speed figure north of 90, which

is not always something we see in those kinds of races.

Obviously we had one with a cornucopian, but this was over

two turns, right? So we get the mile at least

there and then, you know, add add the furlong there.

But Baze is interesting as well. But I I will be very clear on

the show, as I have many times. I'll let the McKenzie kids beat

me over two turns. I'm just going to let them do

that until we see what definitely step up.

But if you had to guess just top of your head journalism Citizen

Bowl, you're going to lean on Barnes cause of value?

Or do you think he'll actually most likely to win the race?

I, I, I wouldn't say he's most likely to win the race, but if

journalism is going to go off, you know, even money or six to

five or something, and, and it truly is 3 to one or anything

right around there for Barnes. I, I think I would take a shot

on that. You know, I, I just, it doesn't

seem, I, I've heard nothing but, but negative commentary on him.

And then for all I know, it's, it's probably all right.

And I'm, I'm kind of the, you know, the, the one who doesn't

get it here. But I, I just look at it and I

say, I, I, I don't know why everybody's so down on him.

I out West, I do think journalism is the best of the

lot, but I think Citizen Bowl, for whatever reason, despite the

connections and the show when the Breeders Cup and everything

else, I think he's being underrated in a weird way

because that's the style with Baffert runners that wins

Authentic won the Derby doing that.

We watched American Pharaoh, we watched Justify win the Derby

running that style. And I'm not putting Citizen Bowl

in the category with those horses yet.

Certainly we'd have to do a lot more, but the last three winners

of the Breeders Cup Juvenile who came back as 3 year olds and won

their next race at their first one as a three-year old, Steve,

two of them won the Derby and one of them was Epicenter.

I mean, so this is Citizen Bulls doing something that puts him in

incredible company. And, you know, you look at some

of the horses I think that are, I mean, just talking about that

style, the kind of front running style.

I mean, some of the horses coming out of these preps right

now are closers, right? I mean, we saw Sandman last

week, Sovereignty, you know, I mean, so it it, it might be the

kind of race where there's it's a little lighter on that speed.

And, and yeah, we've, you know, we've had some, obviously some

closers out of the clouds in the last couple years, but we've

had, you know, Baffert was, say what you want about Medina

Spirit, but you know, Baffert did it with authentic Medina

Spirit, the exact same thing 2020-2021 months apart.

Yeah, no, it's a good point about Medina Spirit as well, But

that, yeah, that style come and get me essentially that Baffert

has so often. I think we're underrating it

with Citizen Bowl. But that race on Saturday, I

think it sets up to be just a a spectacular one.

Obviously the Bluegrass pushed back to Tuesday.

Well, that do you think in your mind?

And yes, I know it's only three days, but does that upset the

apple cart for you at all about picking a horse out of that race

in the Kentucky Derby? No, I, I, you know, I, there's

still, I mean, technically you got the Lexington to come, you

know, that's. Right, five days later,

whatever. Yeah, yeah.

No, it's again, it's one of those things I I think if you're

good enough to win the Kentucky Derby, those three days don't

matter. It's kind of how I look at it.

I think I would tend to agree. Steve Kornacki here with us on

the horse racing happy hour. Yes, I do have a wood memorial

hat on and I will hand it to the first person who asks for one at

Aqueduct on Saturday. So when you see us there, come

say hi to us. I'll be traveling with Johnny P,

Barry Spears and of course, producer Zach, all the random

folks that hang out with the show.

Kind of a thank you to them for doing what they do around here.

Are you, you got to be what's a Steve Kornacki plan on Saturday?

Are you betting all over the place or is it like, Oh no,

we've got New York races. I really got to zoned in on New

York. Well, I mean it would have been

Keeneland, Keeneland, New York and then a little bit, a little

bit on the West Coast. The West Coast is always for me

sort of the the combination of do I have plans later in the

afternoon and at night and how much am I down and trying to

take out from the early part. So you see the two variables for

for Sien, Anita or Del Mar. I think San Anita sets up well

this year because the final four being on the same day, you can

throw the game up, right? You got the San Anita on your

laptop or whatever it might be, and go ahead embed it that way.

So go ahead, give us your top like 2 that you've seen so far

for the Derby trail. Well, I, I mean journalism, I

don't know how you argue with journalism.

And you know, I don't want to sound like a broken record here.

I'm just looking at the, the speed figures and I, I, I, I'm

tempted to put Barnes right there just just for, for right

now. But you know, I, I sovereignty,

I mean, the clothes from sovereignty, you know, was so

impressive in the, the short stretch at Gulfstream, little

disappoint. I mean, little down on them.

Just giving, you know, what happened in the Florida Derby.

But I put him there and I'm, I'm curious, yeah, I'm curious about

that Lucas horse, American Promise, who won the Virginia

Derby. But such a weird race that one

turn mile and 8th, that track was playing super, super fast.

But for the reason we were just talking about, when I'm looking

at these closers that are all winning these points races,

there's someone who, you know, could get right up on the pace

and, you know, maybe have some staying power.

Old old debate in horse racing. Is it the furlongs or is it the

turns right. And with a with an American

promise, I try to remind people to tis the law ran that mile

into Nate one turn Belmont before he got to Churchill and

he showed up just fine in the Derby.

So that it's not unheard of for horses to go from that logger

one turn kind of distance and then figure it out at 10

furlongs over two turns. But you got to be of the quality

of a tis the law. That was a really fine 3 year

old that year or two as well. So you know, American promise

will have to step up if he's going to be that.

He's also a Lucas trainee, which makes Steve very happy.

Something that's. Why?

I really got that one in, Yeah. It's all good.

I yeah, I'm largely with you on those.

The sovereignty thing in the Florida Derby.

I'm going to defend the horse a little.

And I also promise this isn't a criticism of a jockey, but there

was a jockey change there from Junior Alvarado to Manny Franco,

and Junior's been riding a lot more Gulfstream.

Manny, of course, doing much more of his riding on Long

Island at Aqueduct, has to come in, doesn't know the horse.

And I thought he closed just fine, frankly, had it been the

Derby. And there's another full furlong

there. I think that's a we'll race by

the time we get to the end between those two.

And so even if it is Manny Franco and the Derby, I'll feel

a little better about sovereignty because of the the

experience of the first race in the Florida Derby in a mile and

an eighth, only having to figure it out a little bit more at

Churchill Downs. I think they'll be able to get

that together. But yeah, it's impossible to

look past what journalism's done at Santa Anita.

It's just really hard to extrapolate out how is he

running against four other horses and how will he run

against 19 other horses? When do we get to maybe?

Hey, that's the puzzle of the Derby itself.

Steve Kardacki, Lou Yerbo hanging out with you on the

horse racing happy hour. Time for our handicapping

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Get the edge, get AM Wager. We head to Aqueduct where we

will be this weekend. This show will be live ahead of

the card at Aqueduct at 11:00 on Saturday.

If you would like to join us right here, wherever you're

watching, you'll be able to find us on the dais there.

Steve, I still don't know where they're sticking us at Aqueduct,

but I've been told it is not the press box.

So I have no idea where the happy hour is gonna be on

Saturday for the show. But I he's like, are you worried

about background? I'm like, bro, I'm going to

Queens. I know what this is.

It's OK. Like, I know, I know what I'm

gonna answer. Here's Here's what I can tell

you. You're gonna have plenty of

space. You're gonna have plenty of

room. I'm very not worried about that

part for sure. All right, so let's get into it.

We're gonna talk 4 steaks here. We're gonna begin with the Oaks

prep, Steve in the gazelle. This is actually unlike the

wood. We haven't had a winner in the

Kentucky Derby, of course, out of the wood since Fusai Z

Pegasus won the wood and then won the Kentucky Derby in 2000.

The Gazelle very much different. Malafat obviously comes out of

this race just a few years ago. We've seen some very high

quality Phillies come out of this one a mile and an eighth on

the dirt. 4 three-year old Phillies a couple 100 grand in

the Kitty here. Steven an interesting field and

I was able to get the the morning lines to you just before

we got on the show here. I was a little too surprised and

I think by the way, feel like I'm pre correcting myself on

these things, but I think David Aragona does as good a job as

anyone setting morning lines in the country at Naira.

He does an incredible job, very difficult, frankly, going from

an Aqueduct to a Belmont to a Saratoga, all very different

places, different betting habits and he does as well as anyone.

He's got ballerina Dioro, even money in here for Dylan Davis.

Do you agree with him that she's sort of the overwhelming

favorite? And is this a single in the late

pick five? My goodness.

I mean the the line doesn't really surprise me.

I mean, you got Chad Brown in New York, you know, and the

horse ran this, you know, ran the mile and 8th at this track,

second place as a 2 year old, you know, distance, a bit of a

wild card here has a style. You know, look at the last race

was, you know, the the Devona Dale one turn Gulfstream speed.

I mean, it's just, it seems like a mismatch in the last race for

what the horse, you know, is naturally suited to do.

This seems almost like a perfect match.

So, you know, I kind of get it. It wouldn't be wouldn't be a

single for me. I mean, it's, it's it's really a

logical one. The one that I'm intrigued by

and that I'd want to use is pure beauty.

And that's the Shug Samuel Marin horse coming up from from

Florida. And the things I wrote down

here. Just, I mean, look at the

progression 3 races and just taking a really significant step

forward in each race. It has run the two turns, you

know, last out at Gulfstream handled it well.

And in that Gulfstream race it, it was a loss.

But I mean, that's, you know, the 2nd place horse from the

Gulfstream Park Oaks that you lost to Justin Queso was dead 1.

So I, I think, you know, didn't, didn't embarrass herself in that

race and I think has upside potentially.

Yeah, and frankly, Ballerina Dioro in that Desmond so lost to

Muhema, who we all thought of at the time as one of Brad Cox's

very best Oaks contenders as well.

And so she was in that kind of a company as well.

I'm always interested in these these sort of, you know, coming

up like a late night call. Can that is that a horse that

can pick off a spot in an exact because they've been running

well at say, Laurel Park over a strange configuration of a mile

and an eighth course, that kind of stuff.

But I I think Ballerina Dioro in this spot is a very worthy

favorite under Dylan Davis, who I it was surprising to see him

not have any starts. But then I was reminded that

Aqueduct just restarted its season by going into this week

at Wood Memorial. I'm also interested because I

think Manny Franco was set up to have a big day can Finilla

Sunday for Todd Pletcher, you know, stretch it out and get

better in that kind of way because remember for for one of

these horses, a second place finish might be good enough to

get to Louisville for the Kentucky Oaks.

And so I think that second spot underrated in our handicapping

as far as trying to figure out who's going to be there as well,

but should be a fun kick off to the.

Early can I can I just get yeah, there was one thing on this I

wanted to mention on vanilla Sunday because I found this stat

and I couldn't believe it, but I looked at Pletcher making this

move, the three-year old maiden winner going straight into the

grade stakes. One for 31 last five years with

a lot of short prices. Wow, all right, so a good reason

to play against vanilla Sunday. Of course, Todd Pletcher, Manny

Franco Maine stays at aqueduct 19% win together their most

recent races. Steve Kornacki Luribo, this is

the horse racing happy hour hanging out with you.

The Carter will be race 10 started the late pick four there

at aqueduct as well. By the way, the the Grand Slam

bet was in the previous race in the gazelle.

So this we're kind of walking through the Grand Slam part of

this. Ever played the Grand Slam,

Steve? Is that a bet that appeals to

you? I have.

I have not done it. Actually, I'm I'm I've got my

style and I stick with it. You got your stuff.

That's right, I like to say. It's working.

Great, but I it's the way you choose to make your donations.

I understand the I whenever they come up with new bets, I always

think, do they know horse players like I'm an exacto

player and nothing else. You meet so many of those guys.

It's really remarkable. The Grade 2 Carter is a 7

furlong dirt Sprint there at aqueducts is presented by Naira

bets $300,000 in the Kitty here for four and up in this spot as

well. Steve, not as much of A favorite

here, but Quince Brew, of course, 2 to one.

We have a a second favorite at 7:00 to 2:00.

Is Quince Brew that much of A favorite here, do you think?

I mean, just again, I think you look at those figures.

I I could understand why people would, you know, you would want

to, you know, would would bet that way.

And then I watched those races. I mean, and and just these

dominating. You know, a performance is now

obviously the wild card is you're coming in from Laurel and

and how's that going to, you know, stack up in a field like

this? You know, the horse certainly

makes a lot of sense. I I mean, the one that I kind of

like here that I'm you were just talking about Manny Franco is

the one crazy Mason who kind of comes from out of the clouds in

these races. But if you look at has not had a

lot of pace on paper to run into and yet still manages to have

these incredible closes. And I think there could be a

little bit more, you know, speed here coming from that that

outside horse, you know, Maximus Meridius site, you know, quince

brew to me is the most logical. But I I I would want to take a

shot here on the crazy Mason. Yeah, last two outings, both at

Aqueduct, both wins, as you point out, two for three

lifetime at aqueducts at half of the horses career wins.

That's a nice price too on a Quince Mason at 5:00 to 1:00.

And I'm with you man. A guy like Manny Franco on big

days like this, races like this where you have to time a close,

that kind of stuff, I think he makes a lot of sense here.

And you know, nine to two, five to one kind of number also makes

a lot of sense. I'll I'll make the case for Full

Moon Madness here under Kendrick Carmouche.

Another guy that I really trust on a big day if that horse needs

to close was right behind the Maximus Gosh, Max Max was

Meridius in a couple of those races.

I think a lot of horses in this race Steve could catch a fair

amount of of money. But full moon madness 4 for 9:00

at aqueduct. This is a horse that just knows

the course really, really well. Two wins last year and three

runs already won this year. Hasn't missed the board in the

last two years. So I think leave out of your

tickets at your own apparel there for Michelle Nevin, but.

The seven furlong thing is interesting, is it not, Steve,

because the, the mile, you know what you're getting into and and

there's, you know, you're trying to set up a 23 and change kind

of pace 7's interesting because there are going to be horses

that want to go and say, come on and catch me and they're going

to be ones that are trying to close in.

You mentioned Crazy Mason as the one that you think can close the

best and I I tend to agree. Is there one on the front though

that you think can get the lead? Just keep it.

I think Maximus Meridius. In fact, I think, let me should

I see this right? I mean, has what's Maximus

Meridius done off the lead, you know?

Nothing. That's right.

Correct, right. So I think that might be, I

imagine it, you know, goes out there and that, you know, the

two Quinn's brew just try to, you know, sit a little bit off

and then, you know, maybe it heats up a little bit and maybe

maybe my friend Manny Franco comes charging down the center

of the track. Joel Rosario aboard for Maximus

Meridius. If we get 4 to one that might be

my bet because he is a 2 for five lifetime at Aqueduct with

two other 4 second place finishes at the track.

Has one at the distance for sure.

Has done a lot of his running at parks in different places.

We see some of these horses make their way to Long Island as well

but seems to really like the Aqueduct surface and did win a

couple of stakes that I respect. He won the toboggan this year in

February and of course back in December at the end of the year

won the Graves End as well at Aqueduct.

Race 11 is the Excelsior. It is a mile and a quarter.

Love this set up at Aqueduct. Get the classic distance you you

folks that join us at aqueduct. All three of you will get to

watch a a classic distance race in the Excelsior 4 and up here

150 in the in the Kitty here Tarp's still down.

So of course we're on the dirt at aqueduct.

Some horses people will know in here for sure Steve and this is

kind of a fun what if race film star classic catch croupies in

here. Mosmach is another one of these

as well that I'm, I'm, I think actually of these horses is the

one that I'm like, OK, that way could develop and and turn into

something here. Where did you land?

In the in the? In the car?

Excuse me, in the Excelsior? Yeah, I mean, what an

interesting, you know, you'll see too many of these at this

distance like this. I the outs, I like them.

It's Maz Mac, or however you pronounce it, the outside horse.

Again, there's Manny Franco, Rick Dutrow, and I think just

that post. I really like that post, you

know, here and I think it kind of just sit just off and, you

know, a little bit back and then make the move and you know, has

I just think has sort of the right style here.

But potentially I think you could have a little more speed

up front and could open it for a real closer.

So I'm, you know, croupy the four I would want to use and I,

I think curbstone, the five, which is a yeah, real, real deep

closer. I just, I did 3-6 and seven

here, you know, Batten down, Phileas Fogg, Mama's gold.

I, I think they could set potentially a quick pace here.

Potentially. I know it's this thing in New

York racing right where you're like, it always looks like

there's going to be the speed on paper and then, you know, you

watch the racing and where is it?

But I'm looking at it. I'm saying I, I think there

might be, you know, I think Maz Mac might have the best shot,

you know, with those three kind of going out a little quick and

then maybe quick enough that those others, you know, can get

in the mix. I it's interesting here because

we do have horses with the classic distance experience,

right And they've run and they've enjoyed it and it seems

to be the the stretch out like a Maz Mac, for example, has just

gotten better with the added distance.

It's the son of Vino Rosso. It makes sense that he would

want to go a mile and an eighth a mile and 1/4 in his case,

Harlan's holiday on the damn side it it's interesting because

that horse has never won without Lasik Steve and four runs

previously as a 2 year old goes ahead last year as a three-year

old has a terrific win run right comes into a fourth year 4th 4

year old year here with a win already in March going that mile

into Nathan aqueduct. So I'm with you.

I think that's a horse that could certainly win here as

well. I wonder about the medication if

you wanted to make that an angle.

I certainly wouldn't. I wouldn't doubt anyone wanting

to do that in that case. But with the others in this

favorite, I'm batting down at 2:00 to 1:00.

I just that feels shorter than I want to bet on this race.

Does that mean I don't know a better way to say that it just

feels short for this field? Yeah, yeah, I agree with.

That OK yeah 2 for three lifetime though at the distance

has tried aqueduct before that was back at the in the discovery

finishing fourth under junior Alvarado.

Joel Rosario picks up them out here for Bill Mott.

I think there's some other ones in here that are interesting and

film star I mentioned at 12 to one comes in at Laurel last out

random island the 16th and that's that strange starting

spot just ahead of their finish line there at Laurel.

But it is very, very long stretch and those things that

you would expect to have to do with Aqueduct as well.

I think they kind of set up the same.

Jose Lozano was down for that ride and picks it up here for

Linda Rice. I just if I'm getting double

digits on a horse at Aqueduct with Linda Rice, Steve, it might

be just AI mean just a a win place kind of bet in this this

kind of field. Yeah, that one I, I, I passed

there because you have that one, that Laurel race you're talking

about where the the buyer was through the roof and it kind of

stands out. The others are, you know,

typically they're a little mid high 80s.

You go back, you know, maybe about a year and a half, two

years, you can find more kind of, you know, at the at the

higher level. So I thought maybe just a little

bit too slow right there. But no, I agree, nobody.

You look at this field and there's, I could see this race

playing out all sorts of different ways here.

And so there's a price you have some kind of a hunch on.

I think this is a good place to try that.

Yeah, even like a mama's gold, who I know you talked about a

little bit. This is a horse that just tons

of starts at Aqueduct and is one of those pop up horses, if you

will, pops up with a with a performance.

You might not get it every single time from him, but he

certainly is capable of the son of Boltoro there.

But let's move on to the star of the day.

That will be the wood memorial. We always play a game here a

little buy or sell, Steve. And we were talking off air the

way to do a wood memorial and without any of us saying it.

Look, the, the, the wood jokes are all out there.

It is what it is. People, men don't grow up.

We just, we just age. And and so, yes, there are,

there are wood jokes of plenty, but we're going to go if, if, if

a horse can win in the wood memorial this weekend, we're

going with hardwood. And if they can't, they're

plywood. OK, That's what we're going with

this weekend. We're replacing floors.

Maybe you need some new countertops.

You want to go with that, that wood grain.

Look, Steve, you know what I'm talking about.

You live in New York, you understand.

And so and so maybe it's a little bit of that, but hardwood

or plywood as we go through the series here of horses will go

just in numerical order. Rodriguez leads us off in the

one hole for Bob Baffert and Mike Smith in the right here.

Of course, Mike, a legend in New York before moving his tack to

Southern California comes in short odds here.

And I think the favorite, if I'm looking at this correctly, at

5:00 to 2:00 for morning line maker David Aragona, a hardwood

plywood for this one who's never gone the distance.

But hey, we could say that about a lot of horses in this one.

Yeah, I mean, I, I, I have to say hardwood because I, I, I

can't sit here and say the horse can't win.

I mean, you're talking, look at the company.

I mean, we're just talking about journalism.

We're talking about Citizen Bowl coming in from the West Coast,

potentially with the, the best of the, the, the class and, and

holding his own out there. You know, I think the style here

is what you're talking about with Baffert is just, you know,

go to the lead. Can you last a mile and an

eighth? What kind of, you know, pressure

are you getting from the, the, the rest of the field where I

ultimately, you know, in terms of picking this later?

I, I'm not going to go with Rodriguez because I think again,

sound like a a broken record saying I think there's some

speed here, but I do think there's a lot more speed in this

race and you know, bigger field obviously than facing out West

usually in these. So I, I just, I felt ultimately

the horse is going to take some pressure and not be able to

withstand for a mile and an eighth, especially at the at the

price you're going to get. I looked up to Mike Smith's

stats. I know he doesn't ride as much,

you know, as he used to kind of picks his spots.

Obviously very talented horse, although he is winless in stakes

this year over 16 and he's only hit the board and I think three

of them. So you know at that, that short

price, those are some of the things I was thinking about.

Yeah, I I'm actually a little hot take.

I'm going to go plywood on the morning line favorite in the

wood memorial, which is a hell of a thing for me to do with

Baffert in the spring with a three-year old.

But I just, he and Mike Smith are over 9 on their last nine

months together. And I think he uses Mike Smith

as a last. That is the last option at this

point in, in both of their careers.

And it to me, this feels a little like Medicare Rd. last

weekend where he's going to get out there, we'll see him near

the front and then the good horses will the, the distance

horses will overtake him. That's my sense of this weekend.

So hot take, I'm going plywood on the morning line favorite in

Rodriguez, Captain Cook is the two horse and here he is 7:00 to

2:00 on the line. The aforementioned Manny Franco

and the aforementioned Richard Detrow as well.

A hardwood or a plywood here, Steve.

Well, first, I mean, you put me to shame.

I don't have the courage to say plywood on the on Rodriguez.

I should have because that's that's for my that's for my

that's what I'm thinking inside. Believe me, Captain, Captain

Cook, you know, hardwood. I I, I mean, I think this is,

it's just what I was saying about how I'm kind of imagining

there being, you know, a fair amount of speed here.

I mean, has that style to sit just, you know, right off of it

and then overpower the field. Has the win in the Withers at

the distance on the track. Dutro likes kind of resting

these horses a bit. And, you know, yeah, I like, you

know, I like the D Wayne Lucas storylines all the time.

I like the Dutro storylines, the the comeback, you know, he's

been on the last few years. Get him a, get him in the Derby,

you know? I, I totally agree hardwood on

him. And last year, interestingly

enough, of course, the race that he won in December was one of

the great predictors of success, which was the Remsen.

We had Sierra Leone, Dornick and of course domestic product all

win grade ones coming out of that race.

We haven't seen that quite yet, but frankly, we haven't seen

Captain Koch since that race. And so hanging out New York all

winter, it appears with the Dutch Row folks and so very much

at home there on Long Island ready to go for sure. 2 for two

at Aqueduct. I think he's the kind of horse

that if he's able to move forward, it's not a practical

joke. And you Charlie on the damn

side. He he makes sense as far as

breeding Steve that he's the one not necessarily that snaps the

the Derby streak, but shows up in a Vino Rosso kind of way in

the Derby, you know, top five kind of number, that sort of

thing. I think that much of him, I

think Manny Franco on a day like today is the exact guy that I

want a horse on a horse like this, who's going to want to be

right behind Rodriguez. And I think the addition of

Rodriguez to this race makes him even more of a likely winner of

this one because he's going to have something to run at.

And so, yes, absolute hardwood for me in this case with Captain

Cook. The next stop putting hardwood

on the screen. Louis, what are you doing?

The next one in here is the three in Tiger 24 comes in at 30

to one here the connections at 30 to one.

Steve, have you ever seen Javier Castellano and Bill Mott at 30

to one? I'm just.

I'll start with that because I. No, I mean, that's, that's

right. I'm I'm sort of looking at it

and you'll get a little tempted just based on that.

But you know, look, it, you're coming in, it's it's just the

maiden win. You've got a lot of horses here

who've run in stakes, grated stakes.

So just, you know, obviously a huge step up unproven.

And you know, it's it's if you love Mott, if you're a Mott

believer, do it. But I'd I'd go, I'd go plywood

on this one. And we have seen weirder things

than this horse win the wood memorial.

I want to be really clear. We have seen some bombers in

this race, especially recently. But I agree with you, the son of

Lord Nelson probably up against it here.

Despite the connections, I don't hate them trying put all the

horses in the starting gate that you can.

Let's go. I'm into that, but I'll go

plywood with Steve here as well. Just I I think a little bit too

much of an ask right now. But if you told me this horse

picked off a Matt Wayne Grade 3 at Churchill Downs over the

summer, I wouldn't be stunned. That kind of thing, right?

And I think he could be one of those that we see later on in

the year, maybe even, you know, this time of year, Steve, we're

always asking around here who's going to run to the Pat Day

Mile. Tiger 24 might be one of those

horses. He might end up being in that

kind of group. My Metoli is the next horse here

is going to be in the four hole here.

Steve, 20 to one. The Rivera and Martin

combination up there at Aqueduct as well has become, by the way,

very, very fruitful. They've won 22% of their last 32

rides amounts together. Excuse me at Aqueduct.

By far one of the best jockey trainer percentages in New York

going right now in this horse did not get it done in the

Gotham finished behind Floodzone, who's trying to UAE

Derby this weekend, but did win back-to-back races both of the

maiden optional and at the optional claiming levels against

winners. First time go on the mile at

Aqueduct. What say you about this one?

Yeah, a little interesting too. I was looking back at the past

performances. That was that was in that race

last summer. Remember, you know mentee

colloquial, you know the the best 2 year old.

The point This has been running since May last year.

That's not usual at this time of year, you're right.

Yeah, and, and there were a ton. I mean, that was such a key race

too. I mean, you know, there's so

many winners came out of there. So I've been keeping an eye on

that horse a little bit. Ultimately, you know, this is

the first time, you know, doing two turns.

You know, you got horses with two turn experience in here.

Obviously, again, they're young, they can develop, but I I'm just

not there yet on on this one. All right, so plywood for Steve.

I'm going to go hardwood on this one.

I think this is one or throw the blinkers on.

I think he's going to try to get this horse to be closer to the

front. We've already seen this horse go

the mile in the Gotham yes, I get it.

It wasn't good enough to beat flood zone that day, but one

over the mile before going to buck 39.

It's a little slower than what he's going to have to do here,

but if he can plod along and keep keep pace here, big, big

concern is I made fun of Mackenzie earlier.

I should probably make fun of a horse that I want a ton of money

on Steve and that is Mottoli. I don't know if Mottoli's are

going to want to go a mile in an eighth, but we're going to find

out together. And so so there you go.

I will go ahead and give him a chance at least in the my

Mottoli bar. The five will be sand devil.

Lots of money is going to come in on this one at 8:00 to 1:00

for Jose Lescano. Excuse me?

For Jose Lescano, yes, excuse me.

And Linda Rice in this case did run second in that Gotham behind

flood zone. Nobody was catching flood zone

that day. Did you give him a shot here?

I guess is there there's a there seems to be a new tradition with

Linda Rice, you know, Arctic arrogance a couple of years ago

was it was it El Grande O last year she gets.

These When did I forget about Arctic arrogance?

What a great poll by Steve Karnacki.

My God and. They all I, I feel she's got

this horse, these horses that run in New York in the winter

and they're, they're good. They're good, and they can

accumulate. And they're great that way, yes.

Yeah. And they're not, they're not,

they don't totally not belong. They just can't quite get to

that next level in winter race like this.

I think I put Sand Devil right in that category and and again

the the distance here, you know, going a mile an eighth, never

having run two turns before. Son of violence, that's, that's

my plywood. I, I, I, I just, I, I think the,

the violence thing, having to go two turns, I frankly, I, I don't

think this horse finishes in the top five like like that kind of

thing. So to me it's just it's asking

based on the breeding just too much, but I'm not again, it's

the Derby of take your shots. This is a three quarter of

$1,000,000 raise. Take your shots.

I'm not mad at it, you know, for sure.

But I just, I think it's a little bit too much of an ask

for that one. But I look, I, I like the I like

the Lescato booking. The two of them hit a 24% of

Aqua. Way weirder things have happened

than I was winning the wood, but I'll go ahead and play against

as well. Hill Rd. comes in Joel Rosario

and Chad Brown here, 9:00 to 2:00 on the line.

I think third favorite here, maybe 4th.

Steve, give this one a shot for Chad Brown.

Yeah, I mean, I got to say I got to go hard.

Doesn't like anybody in the doesn't like anybody in the

memorial. I mean, it's just I think this

was when you say I said 9:00 to 2:00 is what you just said in

the morning line. I got to I got to think it's

going to end up shorter just because it's, you know, Chad and

then just the IT seems so logical the closer the style.

I personally am a little cool on this horse after that Tampa Bay

Derby, you know, closed a little bit, but not not in any

impressive way that makes me think this, you know, sitting on

the script. But again, you know, then it had

been off what, four months before that race.

Now a little bit more recency and you know, Chad can't get

these horses ready. The style I think could be

logical for a race like this. So I, I think there's a lot

there that, you know, I, I don't want to, I don't want to go

plywood here. I am not having any guts.

Again, I don't want to go plywood when I can see it

happening, but I won't bet on it.

Yeah, value and if they can win the race or different questions

right. I agree with you for sure and

they keep they kept trying this horse in different spots and

obviously, you know starts overseas.

They think of him as you know, it's quality roads.

So we we kind of don't know what the quality roads are when we

first get them. You know let me drop kid on the

mom's side so that that's leans dirt for sure.

Just just this horse hasn't been competitive and kid Chad Brown

just get this one that much better to catch up with a

Chancellor Mcpatrick or with an Owen Almighty, because I don't

even what is chance you're going to go off at like fourth

favorite in the Bluegrass, something like that.

And and this horse is going to be 3 to one or or five to two or

something on the aqueduct card. I I'm with you largely.

I mean, I'll go plywood here just 'cause I I I wouldn't be

stunned if he wins the race, but I I just see other spots where I

think this is going to be a lot better.

So all right, let's move on to Grande.

Grande is in the seven hole here at 5:00 to 1:00.

I think will be many people's top top pick here between Dylan

Davis and Todd Pletcher as well. Comes out of a mile and an

eighth run at Gulfstream Park as a warm up for this 1/2 for two

lifetime. The splits look exactly the same

between this 2. The two runs for this horse.

Steve was able to sit just off in his first attempt.

Overtakes, goes ahead, wins his made.

Does the exact same thing against Winters for the first

time. We are third in the form cycle

here as well. I like Grande a lot this

weekend. Yeah, no, I would go hardwood

too. I think he's really looking at

the the Captain Cook trip. I mean, that's that's sort of,

you know, the race he'd want to run here.

I think to be just, you know, sit a little bit off and I, you

know, this I said at the start, too, you're asking about the

Derby trail. The, you know, the the surprise

questions I had in one of them is, is Todd Pletcher going to

have a horse in the Kentucky Derby?

And, and, and here we go. This is down to getting down to

his last outs here. So, you know, this is this is

kind of it. Well, I mean, he's still got the

Scout, he's still got the Bluegrass.

But yeah. But the nitty is gritty, Steve,

at this point. Yeah, for sure.

So we're getting all of those things for sure.

I I'm going to go hardwood as well.

I think for sure this is the kind of horse that that can that

can win a a wood memorial. And I think his experience to

this point makes a lot of sense. At very worst, I think he can

run 2nd and get Pletcher a starter in the race.

And then he's one of those. I think if if he finishes

second, Steve, I'll make a prediction.

If Grande finishes second in the wood memorial, he's the buzz

horse. When we get to Derby week, non

winner of the wood, he'll get there.

It'll be Pletcher. We'll go Fletcher.

We're just we're look at past Pletcher this year.

We're doing it. Oh my gosh, I'm so you know it's

going to be one of those and Grande just sets up.

It's an important thing. You understand me, Steve,

figuring out who the buzz horse is going to be major part of

Derby week. You understand me.

Who's the dance of this year? Who is it?

Who who we're going to be? We're going to figure out as far

as who the buzz horse is going to be.

I think Grande is my early my early candidate for that.

Keep going through the wood memorial field here with Steve

Kornacki, Lou Rambo hanging out with you.

Thanks to the a couple 1000 people hanging out with us right

now on the stream. I just did Grande.

So passion rules is the 8 here 12 to one.

I get Brad Cox and Kendrick Carmouche 12 to one.

I'm very tempted to make this my top pick Steve.

I don't know what else to say because just because of the

value and I really truck, I legitimately really trust

Kendrick Carmouche up at Aqueduct to make give the horse

the very, very best chance that he can.

So I'll go first here because I this is my upset pick of the

day. I love this horse here in this

spot. I think he's going to be the

stalking type. I think he's going to be able to

run late if he needs to. We've already seen him get the

distance at Oakland Park already.

That was a shorter stretch. Was still able to make a move in

that shorter stretch and overcome runners.

I think he can absolutely win on Saturday.

Steve, I'm a hardwood here. I am too.

I am too for for the really the reasons you just said.

I mean, it's he would need a little bit of a step up, but

that's totally within the realm. You know, the way he ran in in

those in that Oakland race last out, you know, was was just

impressive to watch, I think. And yeah, yeah, believe in Cox

developing, you know, a three-year old.

I I think so. Yeah, no, that's exactly right.

The second, I think they knew Flood Zone was going to ship

with the ownership over to the Arabian Peninsula.

I think he was looking for a horse for this spot and I think

he gave him that warm up earlier in the month because look at the

turn around here. This is a three-week turn

around. He very clearly thinks he has

something shipped this horse to New York for this race.

I'll take 10 to 112 to one. Whatever we're going to get on

this horse, certainly 12 to one right now on the line with that

connection for sure. Bear claw, Bear claw necklace,

which are three words that I've never heard together, is the

9:50 to 1:00 here, Ajim Murug and Sophie Savi Joseph Junior.

Excuse me. Sophie Savi Joseph Junior.

I will go ahead and I'll just, I'll do this.

Steve, if you're watching, you know how we feel about this

horse. And then we'll just, we're just

going to move on. We good, we're good.

Go ahead, move on. We good, good, well.

No, I'm, I'm going to say the only thing is I, I, I paused

here because was it 2 years ago Saffy came in here and won this

thing at 59 to one with the Lord Miles, I think.

It was Lord Miles. Lord Miles.

Yes, Beautiful horse, by the way.

Beautiful. You know, but no, I'm not.

I'm not going to do it. But I did.

I wanted to, I wanted to mention that because it did.

It did come to my mind before I completely crossed the horse

out. Shout out to Lord Miles.

How about that? All right, we move on to McAfee.

That'll be the next horse here. Eric, Console another nut row in

here. This one will be 20 to one on

the line. Steve, I, I think you might be a

little more onto this horse than anyone else, but I'm going to go

plywood on this. One no, I'm I'm I think I

ultimately will too, you know, first time, you know, around two

turns and I I don't know if I I may be getting this completely

wrong. Had I heard some talk this week

he might be scratching out of this is that you might have.

To scratch out? Yep, Yep.

Yeah, he might not scratch out. Yep.

Son of a cloud computing. Were you at that Preakness by

chance? That was I one of my first

Preaknesses I got to go to. I actually been on cloud

computing a winner look. At you all right that's a good

pull right there all right that was a good Triple Crown here

actually, I really enjoyed really enjoyed that year.

It was a good one. And then Statesman is the next

one here after McAfee. He'll be in the 10 hole here.

Another one. Oh, I just did McAfee.

I'm sorry. Statesman here for sugar and for

for the sugar marine combination.

They don't get together very often at Aqueduct, but this one

comes in out of the Tampa circuit back-to-back, wins

maiden and against winners going a mile.

So going to two turns at Tampa. Do you give this one a shot

here? Yes, this this is my.

The same. Way passion rules is your, you

know, kind of sneaky pick of the day.

This, this is this is mine. I know it's Tampa.

I know it's a huge step up coming in here.

I know Marin is is untested kind of on this stage, but just go

watch both of those Tampa races because the word I I wrote down

is just explosive. Top of the stretch last out at

Tampa dead last race looked over horses out of it and and just

seemingly out of nowhere exploded and just blew past

everybody. And then you go to back and also

looked beat in the middle of the stretch.

You know, getting into deep stretch.

You know, the, the, the horse he was chasing kind of re broke,

opened up about 3 lengths in the middle of the stretch and again

just exploded, surged past and won.

And I, I, it's visually it was really kind of startling to see.

And you know, again, if there's if there's any kind of a pace to

run into here, a horse that can do that, I won't take a shot on.

Hey, go 20 to one for Steve's play there.

I'll go play with how about that?

It's mostly the Tampa thing that the fractions are are slow

enough at Tampa in this in this case that I I think he's not

going to get that kind of run with the Rodriguez and different

things. But if it falls apart, which it

absolutely could with the Rodriguez in this race, I, I, I

don't think it's, I don't think it's a ridiculous pick,

especially at that kind of value at 20 to one.

Omaha Omaha will be our last. And then we've got a couple of

comments on the stream as well that I want to get to the son of

audible, one of my very favorite derbies, because I had the

trifecta in the old justified Derby.

Omaha Omaha comes in at 30 to one, which is really interesting

here because I had to hear about this horse a lot.

Steve and I, I cannot wait to do this by the way.

So if you need your besmirchment horse, Louis, besmirchment horse

of the week, it is Omaha Omaha. He is plywood, plywood.

There you go boom. I, I just, I'm a little tired of

this horse. I'm a little tired of seeing him

run 3rd and everything. He's going to be in the Derby

starting gate and make me angry, Steve.

That's what's going to happen. He's going to run second here

and just and, and ruin my Derby gate and it is what it is.

All right, what you got here? Oh, I'm, I'm glad you said it.

I'm, I'm with you on this. I I think it was coming out of

the Jerome. He was getting.

There was some buzz that his Jerome was sneaky good.

And now no. And you know.

Go back to Cyclone State. Yeah, I can't do it.

Our guy JD Fox text in said I want a closer here with the

amount of speed signed on. Something you and I have talked

about right with Rodriguez up front as somebody who tied to

Burbonic in 2021 into the Warner circle for Calumet and Kendrick

Carbouche. I'm doing the same here for 2/3

of the same connections. Prefer him over Omaha.

Omaha in this spot. So of course he comes back to

pass your rules. So there you go.

JD and I landed on the same horse.

That doesn't happen terribly often, so I feel a lot better

about that one as well. Pass your rules.

By the way, a son of Friesian Fire.

Not the name that we hear very often.

They bred that horse for a grand Steve a grand.

They win the Derby with a horse they bred for a grand.

Brad Cox Hall of Fame. Let's get it over with like

we're done here. Shoot, if they win the Wood

Memorial with $1000 horse, they should probably just let him in

there as well. Well, there you go man.

There's our run through the Wood Memorial.

I'll go ahead and let you give us your, your, your top play and

your, your, excuse me, your winner and your, your long shot

play. Go ahead.

Yeah, I mean Captain Cook is is my is my win play here in my

long shot statesman. Statesman OK, I'll go passion

rules as my long shot play. I think he's on top for me too.

I think he's on top for me too. So I I think I'll stick with it.

I I I I don't love many of the horses here.

If Captain Cook runs his race, I think he wins.

I do I think he if he runs, if he runs back, that Withers maybe

even a little bit better because I think he's capable of it.

I think he wins for sure. The works on at at Belmont have

been really, really good. I and you know, I've gotten to

see some of those videos. I think he's ready.

It's weird to have to wait this long, but of course you just do

right by the horse and that Withers because it's in December

does push the the calendar back a little bit.

But or excuse me in February, push the calendar back a little

bit. But I think he's ready for sure

in this spot. Well, Steve, I appreciate you

very much. I don't are you a guy that goes

to the Wood Memorial or are you like is there the final four is

not going to stay home? It's, it's possible.

I'm going to see if I can get out there.

So I, I, you know, it's, it's not, it's not that it's not a 0.

All right, well, there you go. I guess I'll have to mail you

the head after all. All right, at least Steve

Kornacki. We appreciate him joining us

here on the Horse Racing Happy hour.

Good luck this weekend, Steve. We'll talk to you soon.

Hey, Louis, you too. Thanks.

All right, and Congrats on all the all the it's good when

things happen to friends of the show.

I love it. So Congrats on all the new stuff

too. Nice to say, appreciate it.

Yeah, thank you. I appreciate it.

And hopefully by played wheel take off, we'll be up there.

11:00 will be our live coverage up there at the Wood Memorial at

Aqueduct with the Horse Racing Happy Hour.

You're certainly welcome to join us for all of that coverage as

well. Johnny P the Sniper and me

hanging out with you on Saturday morning would love to see you.

And if you happen to be there, come grab one of these hats.

We've got one for you as well. Heck, I probably got a cigar for

you too. I blew your bow.

For producers Zach and Steve Kornacki.

We appreciate you joining us here on the Horse Racing Happy

Hour. We'll be back at it Saturday

morning.