Kevin Kilroy & Opening Saturday at the Spa

Let's get Kevin Kilroy in here. We'll ask him as well.

Kevin, you have walked into lots of people at at Trust Your Luck

on Twitter for Kevin. Kevin, do you take your phone to

the bathroom with you of. Course.

Of course. Who doesn't?

Me. Me.

Smart. I mean, I when I when I tell you

what I do. But I also get mad at my

daughter when she does it. So I'm a hypocrite like most

like those parents. Yeah.

And I need to to iron that out, I think.

How do you how do you how do you what do you do Do you like,

check it in to make sure that you like, don't bring it into

the bathroom, do you. It's in your pocket.

You're sitting there, you know? And I just, I just said this a

second ago. I'm not one of those people,

like your daughter or my grandchildren, who cannot have

physical contact with their phone.

For, you know, less than 30 seconds, I can actually put my

phone down, walk away and not pay attention to it for 10 or 15

minutes. But you had.

I don't know anything about the. Muscle.

You know, you've had decades where you didn't have to rely on

it. We're we're, you know we're

getting hit early on in our lives and it's becoming yeah,

you know that's the advantage of.

Be in old school because this, yeah, this phone.

It dictates us. But how many good tweets come

out while you're, you know, sitting on the toilet?

All. Thank you.

Thank you, Kevin. Killer.

Well see I can I can answer that question too.

I I'm not on Twitter so so that doesn't.

I I need to take your plan. I think I might be a healthier,

happier man if I was living like you did.

All right, where he's wearing a hat.

His name is Kevin Kilroy at Trust Your Luck.

On Twitter, he joins us in his normal spot at 11:15.

You can also find his stuff, his latest pieces up at First Gen.

First gensports.com. You can check out his weekly

piece, becoming one of my favorites.

What did we miss in the weekend of betting that was Kevin, Which

races did you look at this week for that piece?

Geez, what did I look at that was so long ago?

I just got you. Remember the day, You poor guy.

I I do, but I thought since you wrote it you might remember.

You know how much stuff I I've been, you know, I've been

cranking this week, cranking in Chicago, but I've got it.

Right here we've left Wisconsin, is what I'm hearing.

Yeah. You're in the People's Republic

of Illinois, as Dan calls it you.

Know I am in the Palmer House works for Hilton and so we get

the, we get steals. Good rates on on Hilton

properties. So we are staying downtown and

you know 4 kids trips around downtown Chicago.

It sounded amazing. I I was so excited.

But it's been tough it's it's been it's been hard We've gotten

in a lot of people's ways. My 3 year old has peed on every

street corner that he could find just like a dog and but we've

had a good time we're going to head to the beach here a little

bit. Yeah, I took a look at the that

Henrietta Topham justify my love.

Remember that Henrietta Topham was that the favoritism just

barely be justify my love by like 3/4 of a length.

Justify my Love went off at 12:00 to 1:00.

Henry at the top, and I think it was five to two, you see spots

like that. So that that whole article is

all about just finding those spots where this is a little bit

irrational that we're getting these odds right.

And we need to look back at those and say, like, why do we

get so excited about betting Henry at the top who just beat

this other horse by 3/4 of a length.

And when we're getting 12:00 to 1:00 on the other horse.

So finding spots like that, just sort of sharpening up and

remembering that we can't find value because you know how it

is. Sometimes you like a horse at a

price and you're like, nobody likes this horse.

It must be something wrong. I got to go with the favorite,

you know? That's sort of thinking where

you get a little bit weak in your ability to take a stand.

So just strengthen that ability to take a stand, Check that,

check that out. First Gen. sports, all sorts of

good stuff up there. Kevin, what does taking a stand

mean for those people who listen to us who might not know that

terminology? Yeah, you know, I think it's

just thinking in terms of. Leaving with your opinion and

put your money behind it as opposed to maybe playing

defensively, you know there's all sorts of things that cause

us the second guess and you know it's horse racing.

There's all sorts of different scenarios that can can unfold

that you didn't see come and. But if you if you have a strong

opinion about a horse and the the price is there just just to

to send that bet in, you know whether it's a win bet or

however you're sort of feeding the entire race and not get a

little bit not get talked off your opinion because the money

is not going there. Public handicappers don't like

it, whatever it might be really just go after like a 12:00 to

1:18 to 1:00 and just and just send it in, you know.

Kevin, I think another thing that that really influences

those kinds of decisions is also the morning line.

And I think that you have to be aware that that's just one man's

opinion and if he really or she really knew what they were

doing, they'd be at the windows. They wouldn't be bothering

themselves with making the morning line.

Absolutely, absolutely. And and also that morning line

that you always have to remember that that's.

That, you know, the track handicappers guess at how the

race will be bad, right. How the public will treat these,

you know, these these market commodities, right, how, how

they'll they'll put their money behind them and what what's

going to attract them in certain ways.

So it's not even necessarily what the track handicapper

thinks is the fair value for those horses, but just how the

public will approach it. So yeah, that's good to keep in

mind because a lot of times you'll see a morning line price

and you'll think, well, this horse is, you know, six to five

on the morning line. It's probably a sure thing, but.

And that's not necessarily the case at all, as as you're

saying. Kevin Kilroy with us at Trust

Your Luck on Twitter. Find his stuff at First Gen.

Sports First gensports.com. He's got a bunch of stuff up at

Twinspires as well, all those available on his Twitter feed.

You can see all the stuff he's been quote, grinding out this

week, as Kevin would say in Italians.

In the Diana this week she wins when she's not in the Breeders

Cup. Do you expect it to be any

different for the defending channel?

I mean, can we talk about the Diana, can we, can we be real

with this or or not? I mean we got 4/4 Chad Brown

horses in the five horse field. What is this?

What? What is this?

I mean we've seen three again and again and again.

But then I think this is the first time I've seen four and

four out of five. It's just it's a, it's a it's a

race that turns me off, you know, and I and I try to stay as

positive as possible, but this is just like why don't we have

turf horses who can step up some older Phillies and go a mile and

8th at Saratoga. You know, where are these?

Where are these older Phillies? Where where are they racing?

Where are they in this race? No, it's, it's a good question.

It's a half million bucks. I mean it's worth shipping for

even from Europe, Dan. Yeah.

No and and and and and Saratoga feels the same way, Kevin,

because they have a grade one $500,000 race as the fourth race

on the car. They want to make sure they want

to make sure they keep this out out of the pick six.

You know I I'm wondering if as you said Chad Brown has four

horses in here. I I'm wondering and and they're.

They they are for different ownership groups.

All four of them have different owners.

I'm wondering if he runs all four of them, could this be a

case of, you know, I had to put, I had to put four horses in here

to make the race go, but it winds up being a four horse

field instead of A5 horse field. Yeah, I think that's a good

point because that is a lot to put, a lot of a lot of eggs to

put, you know what I mean? It's good money though across

the board if you can, if you can go 123 and.

These are all interesting horses.

That White Beam is, you know, a little bit new on the scene.

Suspect 2 races stateside coming over from from England and

France could improve off of that.

Could sort of be a sneaky 1 to think about because we've just

seen 2 stateside efforts and a lot of times it takes a couple.

You know to really get their legs underneath them and have

their best best go just a four year old by Caravaggio fantastic

sires white beam is is kind of interesting in there.

I mean you guys know the big question is is an Italian gets

it done but a lot of time with without any challenge out front

or any of these jocks going to. She's going to make things

uncomfortable for that frontrunner and that's that's

the way that she wins. She goes out to the lead and and

puts them to sleep if she can. But she really doesn't need to.

She can, she can go all the way through the wire no matter how

long she's going. But that's the hard part where

you have a situation like that and is Chad Brown Pelin, you

know, Jose Ortiz or Rosario or who we got on white beam or

Pratt, like, hey, yeah, take it to an Italian today, you know,

or they going to let her let her go off because if she's off on

her own, she's she's gone. Yeah, I think the other question

here is does Jose Ortiz, who's next to his brother, I read

Ortiz on an Italian. Jose Ortiz on market

segmentation as you mentioned is the other horse that could be

early speed here. Yeah.

And my sense is just because we know when Italian's in this

race, Jose is going to sit just off.

I I think that's probably the most likely pace scenario.

Is there any chance that the Mark Cassie horse fever over who

ran a really good Nassau over yielding go is going to get

softer ground because of all the rain in Saratoga could actually

pick up some pieces here? Yeah, I think so.

I mean I think, you know, I was surprised to see that 12 to one

on the morning line. I was looking at looking at her

before the morning lines were published and I was like wow,

this could be something a little bit sneaky.

Another one is just just four stateside races since last

summer. So it's been a year, but two

wins out of those four, one by four and a quarter lengths over

Moira. Last time that was that was

really impressive. So we've seen different tactics

from February over that should be able to save ground.

Castellanos already got two wins, you know, yesterday.

Say Cassie has one win. It could be, it could be a hot

little little number here. It would it would be great.

You know, just somebody who's a fan of the underdog or, you

know, just sort of taken down these situations where it seems

like some of these positions themselves to to win no matter

what. I'll be cheering for Feb.

Rover is just a contrarian sword, but I'm not sure if I'll

put my money behind her. The Grade 3 Kelso is the 9th

race on the card. It's also on the turf.

It's a mile instead of the longer distance there.

This will be on the inner turf. This is 4 year olds and up here

we get horses in here that if you follow horse racing Kevin,

people will know Annapolis who's 3 for five lifetime at the

distance is in this race. We also get Casa Creed who's

stretching back out after a six for a long run and a good one by

the way, within a length of Caravelle in the Japer.

Last out at Belmont. Do you like the horse stretcher?

Back up, back out. Excuse me, or do we trust

Annapolis here? Is there a longer shot in here

that you like? You know what, I'm going to

single and hear against those two.

I think the, the number seven Anaconda is the one that we want

will be a price, you know, six to one on the morning line.

I'd like to look around and see what public handicappers are

doing just to get a sense that that's going to be a little bit

less. I'm seeing Anaconda used by a

lot of public handicapters, so maybe we won't get six to one in

the wind pool, but I think we'll get more than that in the multi

race wages, right in terms of people are going to use constant

Creed in Annapolis all over the place.

Those are the two logicals. But Anaconda is in really,

really good form. There's a lot of pace in this

race. So we should have some tiring

horses, some horses that don't get the trip that they want

across the board and you watch that last race in the poker just

lost by 3/4 of length of finished.

Forth and had a tough trip. Spotted the field about two

links right off the bat. Expended a lot of energy as he

was pulling at the AT at Gas Leone to get in the mix.

To get in the hunt had to be taken back a little bit, get a

little bit too close to those runners and then had a ton of

run but no lane to to get it done there late.

So gallop out in first Anaconda seems like a really, really

interesting one here that could get us a good payday.

I think it might be a good set up.

Clarifying for people here what what Kevin's referencing here

about. When we get to the actual race

itself, we'll see the actual odds for Anaconda.

As far as it's win, you know it's it's win odds that kind of

thing. But because this is part of a

longer sequence and when he means that multiple races,

trying to pick the winners of multiple races in a row.

So the smallest of these is what's called the double you're

trying to pick two winners in a row gets up to pick six or you

know what other there's a pick eight.

It's. I met Jenna from Scioto the

other day. Good, good luck with it, by the

way. And so the, you know, trying to

pick those races in a row, in other words, this this horse can

be hidden in the sequence. In other words, if you're

betting starting two races before this, no one's going to

know the payouts on Anaconda unless you have a very

sophisticated system. But the average public better is

not going to know that. So that could be a way to hide

this horse within the sequence. Kevin, I've never asked you.

Are you a turns guy or a distance guy?

Because Anaconda has never gone two turns.

Oh man, it's a good point. There never gone two turns.

I am a turns guy. I am a turns guy.

So we we could see something new, right?

We could see something new with with the two turns.

We see it all the time. I actually think in the last

race you've got, oh, I'm trying to think that's not the last

race. There was a there was a race the

other day. Where I included a Chad Brown

going from from Sprinter Out because his horses go two turns

for the first time. Really, really well, no, no, I'm

not. I'm not saying it's a it's a 0%.

But no, it's it's something. It's something to consider in

your handicapping, that's all. I just, I just hope, I just hope

these these races stay on the grass.

They've already taken. Evidently they had a lot of rain

overnight. All the all of the races on the

grass are off. At Saratoga today.

So that's that's the only negative about Saratoga's is

they they you know they they schedule a lot of turf races and

you can get a popup thunderstorm pretty easily at Saratoga and

when they have to take the races off the grass the car just gets

decimated. And Dan, we know that Kevin's

going to go to the Seven Anaconda here.

I mentioned the two favorites. Are you looking at them or you

looking outside? Well I'm not looking at Casa

Creed I I think Casa Creed is much better going five and a

half six for long. So I'm I'm going to let

everybody else have Casa Creed. I I like you know I'm I'm a

class guy and and the the two horse has won a grade one won a

grade one at Keeneland and has made one start this year as a

four year old. And and that was pretty

impressive but I am going to use the couple of others I'm going

to use. I'm, I'm going to use the six

horse and I'll let you pronounce that.

Filo di Ariana? Yep.

There you go. I'm going to use.

I'm going to use that horse because there are some triple

digit buyers there and I am going to use Anaconda.

Okay, there you go. I got a little, little agreement

on there and that's a good one. So let's go to the next race.

It is the Sanford. We saw a huge upset yesterday.

In the Skylerville Kevin of a 2 year old breaks her maiden in

the race runs for the first time ever.

Of course, that's one of those that could end up in your column

for next week. How did we miss that horse at 20

to one? Is there is there a lien here?

You got a major favorite in gold sweep, the nine who's 3:00 to

5:00. And I think for a a really

reasonable there's a reasonable case here.

The horse goes out last time in the Tremont at Belmont over 5

1/2 furlongs. Blazing blazing speed upfront

finishes in a 103 and change over 5 1/2 furlongs wins by 9.

I don't know how good that field was, but when you could best

elicit stakes field by 9 / 5 1/2 furlongs, it's always

impressive. Is he is he the play here or we

going to look around because heck, these are two year olds.

I'll tell you what you know, just the type of player I am.

When I see a horse like this, I just want to play again.

These younger horses, 2 year olds, 3 year olds, they just

haven't shown us everything. So we're kind of just using it

such a small amount of data to to put a lot of money behind a

horse. And so that's a situation where

I want to be contrarian, which is one of the reasons why I'm

singling in that first leg because I want to spread here.

I mean, what are the chances that we see another step forward

enough from for for Gold suite. Unlikely, you know as a 2 year

old stepping forward running you know, a 9395 buyer, whatever you

might see. It's I'll say this as likely we

see a step back as we see a step forward but it's not going to be

bet that way in the market. So all these courses nobody's

running more than twice. We've got some sneaky angles we

can think about Jive coming out for a a trainer who wins early

in the meet at Saratoga often scratch out of the Tremont last

time wasn't able to run in that for just I think some

technicality situation. We should be live in here, you

know was ready to run that race. Could be taking these big step

forwards in between races as we see two year olds do in the

morning, but we just haven't seen it having a night.

The work pattern looks good, works look sharp.

I like that we slowed up a little bit coming into this one

and Jive seems really interesting. yo-yo Candy also

exit that same race. Ran a really strong effort there

on debut. Regressed a little bit.

We improve off that. That first effort blinkers on

this could be, you know, overlooked.

Nice horse Dickens. I think it could be interesting

in here, could be trying to go for the lead and call the

caverly. How often do you see Irad Ortiz

step on board for a Kenny Mcpeek horse?

You know I think there's there's something to be to be seen there

draws the rail you know gold tweet draws outside looking at

the buyer figures everybody and their their cousins aunt are

going to be single in this horse in the pick five and I'm going

to try to be on the other side of it so I can steal their

money. Yeah, I I I agree you know this

horse gold sweep and a fast time big buyer number but he did go

the last 16th of a mile in in six and one.

So he really wasn't pulling away the other horses were falling

back and and so a horse that you didn't mention Kevin that I'm

going to add is market Streak. DD Wayne's 2 two year old Philly

ran pretty well yesterday. He doesn't and he doesn't pop

out-of-the-box too often. And this horse did last time out

at Ellis. First start went right to the

lead stayed there. One by three and three quarters

and and and. Wayne's horses usually make a

pretty good jump from first start to second start.

Goes from Gabriel Sayez to Tyler Gafflione.

I'm going to put Market Street on my ticket.

Yeah, you take that. Lucas has said some good 2 year

olds. I think that's a good call.

There you go. All right.

Well, Chicago for the day. Are there other people don't

know? Kevin's AKC Mo guys.

He's Kansas City guy. When is the when is the return

to to the the BBQ capital of Western Missouri?

On Saturday, my family will be sick and tired of me and they're

going to go back to Wisconsin to just hang out with the with the

Inlaws and the cousins and they're going to drop me off at

Amtrak and I'm going to take the train back to KC.

Whoo. You should be on the show 1/2

hour after us. Man, oh man, I'll tell you what.

That guy. That that's that's a great call

Kevin, because especially with the weather around here, you

know, you might be in O'Hare for three days if you if you go to

the airport. So taking the train's a good

call. It's my favorite way to travel.

It's the best I get to read or watch races, handicap, whatever

I want to do, look out the window, talk to people if I'm

feeling talkative. I love riding train.

All right. A man who takes his phone to the

bathroom, He's Kevin Kilroy. I trust your love on Twitter.

Go find his stuff first. gensports.com A bunch of stuff

up at Twinspires as well. Hey, Kev, we really appreciate

the time. We'll talk to you next week,

man. Thanks.

Guys, good luck this weekend all.

Right. You too.

Kevin Kilroy. The man, The myth, The train.