BC Turf Race Preview with James Welsh

All right, welcome to a special edition of the Horse Racing

Happy Hour every year. Louie and I, we reached out to

this guy about three years ago and he he didn't know what he

was getting himself into, but he's.

Been our go to like he knows the Europeans like better than we

know the American dirt horses. And then he probably knows the

American dirt horses better than we know the American dirt

horses. So we we bring James Welsh on

because he is our man in Scotland and he is not only very

entertaining to listen to, but we're probably entertaining for

you know with our redneck hillbilly accidents as well.

So if you are a person in California, just get ready your

mind's and explode with the the twang and then the the deep

Scottish accident that's going to come out.

James. So James, how you doing?

I'm good. Thank you very much.

My favorite, favorite couple of days of the year.

And I'll be working hard so hopefully we can have another

profitable meeting again. Yeah, sadly I'm not there.

I was, I was at Santa Anita the last time I was at Santa Anita.

It was my first trip there and it was fantastic.

So I took part in the the Brier's Cup betting challenge,

which was a great experience and I definitely hope to get back

there one once, one more time. Yeah.

Just from the overseas perspective, James, is it you

know, do you? Do you care where the Breeders

Cup is? Does it matter if it's at

Keeneland or Santa Anita? Do you care?

It it, it does actually. I mean I think I think

statistically it does does does make a a bit of a difference.

Certainly I think the, the the California horses have more of

an advantage this time of the year with the climate, the fast

ground. Whereas Keeneland, you know

tough can be a little bit more softer in Keeneland, a bit more

European conditions. So if it's Keeneland or

Churchill Downs, whatever it may be, EUR probably.

The climate is a bit cooler as well.

So it's more like our conditions.

So I think that fears the Europeans whereas you know

obviously Santa Anita, you know it's light and fast ground,

tight turns. So probably not as favourable

but as you say some of the some of the races the Europeans are

are particularly the tough races as we know they're, they're

pretty strong in those races. All right, well we're going to

go, we're going to get into it, we're going to go through the

card, we're going to start on Saturday and we'll finish up

with the talking about the juveniles on Friday.

The 1st turf race we're going to talk about is Race 4 on Saturday

is the Maker's Mark, Breeders' Cup Philly and Mirror turf.

A mile and a quarter on that turf track or at at Santa Anita

Louis. You want to take him through the

field? I do and and I wanted to ask

James. So one of the the quirky things

about the the track at Santa Anita, of course.

Is starting before and having to crossover that dirt course for

this race for the turf, that kind of stuff, man, Top of my

mind. I can't remember an issue, but

is this a thing where the European horses kind of run on

good to soft so it's not a big deal that way or do you think

that could actually affect some of the horses here?

It definitely will. It definitely will.

And it's it's it's a unique, a unique course and get down that

hill going over the over the Duck.

And I think also this one as I said the downhill is is quite an

interesting one and I think that's why we've got in spiral

going up and tripping this race this, this is a male specialist

horse, one of the top male horses we've got in Europe and

stretching out a wee bit in distance because of I think that

downhill run the distance will probably it's the one track in

the world that would probably run it on to get this distance.

All right. So in the in the Philly.

And mayor version here, as Mike mentioned, we're going over that

mile and a quarter going to go over top there you mentioned in

spiral. How do you think she'll end up

favouring in this one? I think, I think she'll probably

will go favorite as I said previously as a as a race we

talked about when six of the last seven winners have been

foreign shepherds. So for the five from Europe and

obviously the one. Our best date of a couple of

years ago we gave out which loves only you from Japan and so

we're able to get some great value on that And so it's

certainly inspired top class horse and if it's going to get

the distance it won't get it on this track.

The interesting one we also top class form I would say is Warm

Heart in the Brine source won a couple of great group ones

earlier in the year at the Yorkshire Oaks and you know the

only thing I would say about that is both of these races were

over 1 / 1 mile for Furlongs mile and 1/2.

This cutting back to the mile and a quarter, but this is a

sharp mile and a quarter you're almost going back three

furlongs. So it's going to be you know

it's going to be pretty short I think for warm hearts.

So ado Brian, he lays them out. And he, he missed out the art

meeting, so he didn't go to Longshot with his horse.

So it's been laid out for the race.

So I think we've got two very, very strong contenders here, top

class horses, but one stretching out, one cutting back distance.

So both of them at a short prices, I don't think I could

recommend. As I said, I'm always looking

for a bit of value and particularly from playing the

Exotics and the American Pools. So the one I would give out that

I quite like and it's not not as good as warm Hearts slightly

behind it is Lumia Rock. And this one currently at the

moment, you can get 1214 to one in a lot of places at the

moment. Now it's probably, as I said,

it's probably just a length or two behind the likes of Warm

Heart and spiral, but it will be probably ridden a bit more

closer to the pace than those two.

And if they can quicken off the bend and get that wee bit of a

lead on them, I can see that going pretty close.

So if I was looking at playing this race.

Which I will be doing. I think the the focus for me

will be Lumiere rock in the exotic betting I've.

I think there's a chance, as I said, but a sharp downhill

course but US horse front runner could potentially build up a

lead in wire the field. But I've looked at an Italian

before I've seen that favour over it would be.

I'm not totally convinced about those horses so if there is an

American horse you think can get a soft lead.

Out within Italian in favour, but it could be a massive price.

You never know. That could be wonky, so it could

be a bit of a bomb, but I don't see.

Maybe maybe you might have something you might quite fancy.

I do think, I mean, if you know, we talk a lot on the show, get

out front, stay out front, that's a fine strategy, right?

And so if an Italian could do that, just rock him to sleep.

I don't know why that horse couldn't win here.

I agree with you. Yeah, so I just.

I think so, I think. Would be certainly one I'll be

playing in my exotic so hopefully we could you know

first race we talk about you know you never know if you get

if you get these two beat warm heart and in spiral but they are

very very strong contenders they are genuine Group One horses.

So warm heart has one at the distance twice and two tries at

this distance. Yes, you just think it's a horse

that wants more distance. I I think it would be suitably

more distance, but specifically as you talked about earlier,

this is downhill run run run into this race.

I think this will be the big the big flying at the start of this

race and I just feel if it was over the the normal male, male 4

warm heart would be very very strong favorite here.

So I'm slightly against both of them with two favourites.

I want to start there. All right.

Two races later. Is that Breeders' Cup mile, I

think some potential absolute superstars in this race.

Obviously on this, on this spot here, 2,000,000 bucks a year.

It's a grade one. Obviously.

No cross in the dirt over here, James.

We do have some good shippers in here, some horses I'm sure

people have heard of between Mos and Kalina and different horses.

Where did you where did you land here?

I would go with in this race. I would probably go with Master

of the Sea Charlie Appley. He's a very poor season for his

standards. We know basically everything

he's been running in North America still runs quite well.

Breeders' Cup has a fantastic record but this year over the

summer the real poor, poor spell.

These two year olds have won a couple of big races recently so

this this table has come back in form and we know Master the Seas

is a good shipper. So I would probably go with

that. Modge.

Yeah, top class horse. The one thing I would say about

that, it had a bit of a rush preparation to get here.

It ran 3 weeks ago and you know it did one well, so but I just

think it's a bit of a bit of a rush preparation 3 week.

Turn around is not ideal. I know it hasn't been working

well on the ducks since you got there, but I wouldn't.

I wouldn't discount that because you know the difference between

working in dart and performing in turf is two different things.

So hopefully it will transfer its form to the to the grass, no

problem at all. The Japanese sauce is very

interesting. I think Song line, it's one

which won quite a few Group 11. I was in Japan.

It does throw in the odd clunker.

That's the one thing about it. You know it does.

It can have good days by days. I think it.

Here last year and didn't run too well either so that was

certainly one at its best. I think Song line would be a

very strong contender but it's things stand at the moment.

It would be master of the sea for me.

The one thing I would say the one I think they're making a

mistake here for the US sources. My favorite point, I think is

the best US tough force is up to the mark.

And I think it would win this race but they're going with it

in the the the, the tough later on in the card I believe and

we'll talk about that later and that's real genuine top class

Group One horses it's taken up taken on there.

So I think they've missed a missed a chance here.

I think up to the mark would have been would actually be my

best 12:50 here in Britain. You can get it a moment and I

would take that because I think if it ran in here against those

those. The two ones we talked about and

song line I think. I think that would be the value

bet, but unfortunately it isn't like it's what it will know

later on when the when the declarations come through and

the draws are made for the stall positions.

That's my thoughts on this one. Yeah, so Casa Creed made the

trip to the Arabian Peninsula, finished second and the Sprint

came back. Pride.

The Jaybird 6 Furlongs got back to a mile has been unbeatable

stateside here. James, do you give Casa Creed a

shot here just as much? Yeah, I do.

I think Cassie Creed probably get a a real good chance, and

certainly I'll be including that by by any exotic bets I'll be

having that. Yeah.

All right, Race 8 is the Longines Breeders' Cup turf the

mile and a half on grade one here, $4 million, usually one of

our favorite races of the day. So who do you like here, James?

Yes. So turf race, we know this so.

Europeans dominated this race. Nineteen wins from 24 runnings

of it. So we know we're going to have a

good chance here and we're sent. We're actually sending over top

class horses now. Ian O'Brien, as I've said before

on the show, most of these horses I'm against the Breeders

Cup because obviously it's it's Quilmore.

They're on the board, they're the Breeders Cup and they do

send over a lot of horses. So you really have to be

selective for Ian O'Brien horses you want to go for, but when he

trains one for the race. He normally never misses and one

of the horses he's got run here is Auguste Rodan.

This horse won the Derby earlier this year, again with its debut

first race this year, the 2000 Games and I think finished last

tailed off. Everybody was, you know, thought

Rosa off. Come back, won the Derby.

Went to Leopardstown. Won the Champions Stakes at

Leopardstown running a a tight left hand bend which was an

excellent prep for us. So I would think this would be a

real strong favorite at Augusta Dime but it has ran a couple of

poor races in the past so it did put me off slightly Most of DAF

took another top class horse. Won the Germante at York earlier

this year. One thing I would say about

that, it was due to run in the Champions Stakes at.

Ascot two weeks ago and it was pulled out on the like an hour

before the race because of soft ground.

That's to me is not the ideal preparation.

It's obviously been targeted that race and this is a sort of

bit of afterthought. I know it's only two weeks late

and it's probably trading regime has not changed any any much.

So I think most of the top class horse, but it's won some

tactical races as we talked about earlier, King of Steel.

Which won the the, the race. I had to ask it the other day

there. I seen it earlier this year when

he was going to make his debut at Dante at York.

I've written it pre played around to the photography, it's

the best looking horse I've seen in years and it's an absolutely

stunning horse. But I had a brutal race at Ascot

and I'm amazed they're actually making a trip over here.

So I I, I I think that's just really the owner want to you

know announce yourself on the the American stage.

So I think that's. Definitely without the bull one,

you'll be definitely against kind of steel that is too short

of a betting. So it's a good horse, it's a

beautiful horse, but you know it's not been trained for this

race. So that's certainly takes the

chunk out of the market I would say.

I think the interesting one is Onesto.

This was, you know, just beating in a fourth finish for second in

the that the Triomphe a couple of weeks ago, it won the Grand

Prix de Paris. Paris is a three-year old.

Ryan An unlucky 7th in the Japan Cup, so we know it's a rude

warrior. It can travel and you're getting

double figure prices at the moment.

So looking at it, if I I think if Augusta Diane turns up, yeah

it's going to be really hard to beat.

I think that probably should be short on the betting but if it

just isn't top form I think Ernesto is great value here and

I'll be using that and make sorties.

And as I said earlier, I feel sad that Up To the Mark is

running in this race because it's.

The top horse, but it won't have any.

I can't see a beat. I think it's in the wrong race.

I can't see it getting close to these horses.

So Gusto Adam, of course, is a is a three-year old, but he has

run against older horses, yes. Yes, he did.

He's done that in the lepers through the Champions takes,

yes. Has Aiden O'Brien ever won a

Breeders' Cup race before? I'm not really.

Now he's now he's just going to make sure all his kids get a

Breeders' Cup win. You know, that's all it is.

Yes. Well the last time the last time

it Santa Anita when I was there if I if I'm right to them but it

was Joseph that won the race with the the Philly is a dresser

so I was playing the Breeders cup betting challenge and and I

was one of the only few have have that I know so that was

quite a nice one for me. So certainly Joseph will be

targeting it. Yeah.

So, all right, the last Breeders' Cup turf race on

Saturday is race 10, which is the Breeders Cup turf Sprint.

The $1 million race here, 5 Furlong turf Sprint.

We only got a couple Europeans, I think, in this race, but what

what are do they have a shot here?

What? What do you think's going to

happen in this one? Yeah, well actually the bet here

in the UK, I'm not too sure, but not is probably not short in the

bottom line, but. You know, they're the two of the

favourites over here. Live the Dream and Brad Sail.

Now this wouldn't be a race. I've never really fancied

European horses sprinting against the American speed

balls, but we've won it before and I think last year we were

second, third, fourth, I think. I think we were pretty close

last year. So there's no top sprinter, no

top dominating European tough sprinter.

So Live the Dream won an ice race in York, the Norfolk race.

It's an absolute. You know, flying 5 at York, it's

a speedball and so it can break well and it's got a good chance.

Certainly it's an interesting loss, but it was handicapping

earlier in the year and. To me they'll be too quick for

that. I think they'll be closing

rapidly in this race. I think Brad Cell is actually a

better horse, the overall all round better horse than Live the

Dream, but it's never been round up end before.

So to me that's a big thing. So to be honest I can't really

have those two. I'd be looking, I think.

Motorists, motorists is probably about 810 to one over here,

which could be a good one and maybe something closing late.

I think. I think they'll go so fast some

maybe big invasions, 20 to 125 to 1 and so I'd be looking at

that. So as I said, I don't think that

the Europeans will win this one. One of the things that I always

watch for James is is experience going going left-handed

essentially, right. We're watching you know you you

bring up Brad Cell only ever run straight line races, right?

I'm not. I'm not you know, holding that

against the horse not the horse's fault but certainly

something to watch. You know we had that broken last

year where on Friday that Sprint on the turf had gone to American

horses. You could tell a lot of the two

year olds just weren't used to the turn Was it was their first

time really, you know in a race having to do that any?

Is that a knock on a horse like Brad Cell or is he old enough,

mature enough to be able to make Edge?

I'm totally with you. I think it's just how you can

balance round round a ton. You're obviously you'll be

trained to come round in a practice, but in a race?

To be a straight straight 5 compared to Girona turn two

different things and I think it's a it's a big big

disadvantage. So as I say it lived the dream

one at 11 at York it's a it's a straight 5.

Brad sells you know Dunwell at Ascot and tracks like that but I

I can't I think. I think America, although I

don't think the Americans are you know, the home.

The home horses are top class. So it might be a weak race.

But I definitely, I'll be, I'm opposing.

I think it probably is. It probably is the weakest field

of all of them, but who do you like how the American horses is

in this one? Because there are a couple you

know that we're familiar with, so.

Yeah, I mean it's hard to look past Caravel when she's on, man.

I mean she's she breaks so quickly, she gets around that

turn so quickly and it's essentially come get me, which

is not a bad way to live as a sprinter.

And so, I mean, she's obviously there, you know, you like the

Tony and horse. Hair sprinting in this country

in general, but I'm trying to remember there was someone look.

Arzak came out of the Woodford really well at Keeneland, but

that's a different style of turf course than we're going to get

on the West Coast. I do think you may get some

horses that came out of Kentucky Downs.

I don't know if you get to watch Kentucky Downs.

Very long, we do. It's quite a unique track, 88

meetings a year, eight race days a year, quite a strange

topography. They can round left hands but

undulating. So we've got tracks like that

over here as well, but not top class tracks.

So, so I've always heard that the Kentucky down form was not

not the best. I know some horses just don't

take this. This year came out very well.

It did very well at Keeland. So can we see, you know a horse

say like Gear jockey who hasn't had a great year, excuse me,

hasn't had a couple, you know, hasn't put year to year

together. He's only runs twice this year.

Could a gear jockey come out of running really well at Kentucky

Downs translate that to Santa Anita.

I I don't know. But I this year, for some

reason, we saw a lot of good form translate from Kentucky

Downs to Keeland. Any concern with Caravelle, just

like the last few performances, have not been what we've come to

love out of this, mayor, I mean. At times undefeated, right?

And eventually these six year olds are are their six year olds

and they slow down. I do think she's absolutely

capable of one more. But does she do it here?

I simply don't know. Yeah, right.

All right, well, let's talk about these juvies.

Or wait, there was a talk. What is your favorite dirt bet

of the day, Buffalo? On oh that's quite.

Yeah this is quite an interesting you always missed

this and we're talking about EUR and so the duck mile very

interesting so quite a good angle in this.

So I think this year so far the. Santa Anita meeting, 80% of the

races have been won by horses on the front.

So any closer let's get that work out.

No one I know. Cody's wishes a phenomenal of us

and the great story behind it. So everyone will be rooting for

it and it will be a short price again.

But I'm out to get short prices beat because it makes the the

exotics, the pick threes etcetera.

So I would be, you know, looking for an American front runner and

potentially practical. Move looks the one, although

it's quite strong. Tibet and second favorite would

be the one. But I think we've got a good one

here, a good Euro, a horse called Algiers.

Okay this horse. I know it's getting to that age

but older now 5-6 and it didn't really show too much and it's

clear in Britain. But he took it last year over to

Dubai and they ran it on The Duck and it was absolutely

sensational. They ran second in the the the

big race itself, the the the Dubai World Cup and she probably

should have won it if it will slightly get a better ride in

it. But it's a couple of prompt

performances that on the clock. The Forum was fantastic.

It missed out its whole grass season in Europe.

It went for its prep race in North America a few weeks ago,

and I think it was going to go in New York, one of the races in

New York. But it was the weather in New

York absolutely terrible and they actually switched it to

running was it cup up in Canada it would bang and did you take

it on a a bus journey if you know so I think it's I think it

was something like you know 12 hours a terrible journey and and

it finished second and it was in in Topeka and to me Topeka is

more like the tough than it is to duct.

OK And so I would just consider that it's just a prep run now

it's probably the terrible journey which is not great.

I'd like to know how it's training on the course and so if

it's going well we can get 810 to 1 here It probably would

Cody's wish and practical move it probably I would imagine I

drove in the morning line is probably around about 12:50 but

you never know these things can drift up a wee bit.

So if I can get worked through the it's it's on the course as

well it's looking healthy. Excellent course.

I would be quite strongly build a lot of my bets around Algiers

around about 12:50. You mentioned California as far

as the turf courses and you know the fast firm nature that it's

going to be when we get to this coming weekend on the dirt side.

Are you going to lean on West Coast horses as well?

Yes, I'm going to lead on front runners.

As I said, 80% of the races I believe will be won by front

runners. Some on the pace, obviously they

might go too fast, so you want a stalker.

I certainly wouldn't be wanting anything.

As I said, normally I don't like coming horses coming off the

pace too much anyway, so I'll be certainly looking for, you know,

horses are up and close to the pace.

I won't be looking for any deep closers.

All right then. Watch your boy zozos in that

deer in that. I think he's he's kind of a

problem. I don't know about the two

turns. We'll find out he was great at

Churchill last out. But if you want a front runner

boy, I got one for you. So.

How about the classic, though? Do you think there's a chance

that we get, you know? You know, it's unusual, but

maybe Anu's birthday sorrow, someone like that that comes

over, you know, we saw a Japanese upset last time we were

in California, in a couple of different races.

Do you think there's a shot here in the classic?

Definitely. I don't think you can do about

Japanese horses any in any race now they really are dominant.

So I I I would say yeah, you would probably include that in

your exotics where it's a win bet.

A wouldn't be win bet. You know I'm, I'm not totally

convinced in the favorite. I believe it's missed its last

two gallops so which is not good.

So I think Arabian Night, I know it's been trading well on the

track front runner obviously Bob Baffert as well.

So at the moment here in the UK we're getting 71 Arabian Nights.

So if anybody I can't get bet so I would have bookmakers at fixed

odds here. You know if you if you're a

winning punter here you don't get on at those prices but if

anybody's in the UK they won't get 71 Arabian Night.

I would absolutely take that. At the moment.

There's a couple of outsiders. I think it'll run well, probably

Saudi crown. I bet I'll last I was just.

Going to ask you about Saudi Crown, what's the number?

Well I like that. So I think that's probably over

here we're going to be 20 to one which is which is massive isn't

it you know so, so I think that would be an interesting one for

me, certainly my exotics but I think about peace burn up up

there. I think you know Saudi Crane

will go on or maybe nail go on and it might not come back

that's the thing they might just keep going the two of them.

So and I would probably one or two up there as well.

So that would be the two that certainly I'm interested in at

the prices in a moment over the probably the Japanese horse,

you've got to include it, but you know I wouldn't be strong on

it yourselves. Anything else you like that one?

I I just I'm interested because we we have a running joke on

this show about White Abario and then of course last out he

changes trainers and runs off the screen in the way I mean he

was one of the people today and frankly against this field if he

does that again he's going to win the freaking Breeders' Cup

classics. I mean I I don't means I don't

know man it's it's it's one of those but I.

You know there are a couple horses here that I do like and I

just clicked on the wrong password for this as I apologize

but I I just, I know that Mike is a fan of of Zanden.

I am very interested in a late bloomer here in bright future

for out of the Pletcher barn and I think that's the kind of horse

that at the distance especially Javier Castellano on

unbelievable fire in big races in the United States this year

on dirt. That's the kind of horse that I

think easily 12:15 to 1:00 kind of number even.

Right before the race, I think he absolutely has a shot.

Here I'm staying with Archangelo.

That's what I was thinking with. You think it's back on track?

You messed up a spot the other day.

We'll have to see. Yeah.

All right. We're going to go to Friday now.

We're going to talk first about the Breeders cub, juvenile turf

Sprint and we know nothing about, you know, any of these

European Hortons obviously. So educate us about the the, the

turf horses, no course. This is the race that we're

talking about. That a a European horse won for

the first time last year, the first time ever.

So this is not traditionally a very strong European field.

Again, Louis mentioning that most of these horses have never

made a turn, they've only gone straight.

So is there is there a contender out of this group of European

horses in the turf Sprint, Juvenile turf Sprint?

There, there is one actually, as you said, no, a race for for

young European horses grown up end and this pace they go as

well. And sometimes it's the jockeys

as well. It's their fault because they

don't seem to break as quickly as the you know, the US horse,

the US jockeys. That's one thing.

I find some of the jockey just watch the European jockeys.

Sometimes they go into these races and it gets the they just

don't seem to get their horses out of the stalls quick enough

and the race is over before he can see it.

Whereas last year I think we finished first second 4th and

5th. So which was I think that's

probably just an unusual there is one here you know for a 2

year old this is a big strong two year old.

This is called Big Eves now it's trainer Mike I will be as I said

he's probably the first runner. They'll live in America.

It's got a chance, it's got a lot of speed, it's got a lot of

size, it's a powerful big horse and if it gets out quick you

could see that running quite well.

So that would be the only one I would say that I would include

in my exotics. But it's the first race of the

Breeders Cup schedule and it's, I've just got my Rd. down here.

It's the only race at the moment of not the betting and I don't

think I will be having a bet. I might put something in for the

pick threes or things like that, but I certainly won't be

singling anything in this race from Europe.

You were you've mentioned the pick three a couple of times.

Is that the longest sequence you play during Breeders' Cup

weekend? I do.

I try and just focus on the pick three as you said.

What I try and focus on is getting couple of short price

favourites or grouping races where I've got a couple of

strong fancies together and then sort of perming it out.

So I might have played two and then I'll put maybe 3456

possibly even in the last leg or whatever it is.

So I tend to focus on the the pick three's my my favorite bet

and as I said if you get one good pick three up it pays for

your whole weekend. So and last year I don't want to

this stuff. I think we both mentioned it in

this show. I think it was your one of your

ones as well was Blue Stripe which get beaten the photo

finish and I had it on the exchanges here at 40 to 140

Sixty one is single bits and I had it.

I had it in daily double s I had it in pick threes.

So that photo finish cost me, you know, over five figure P

out. So that was a blow.

But that is. I know it stinks, but man, that

was one of the coolest finishes I've ever seen.

It was. Awesome.

Those three horses. Together they were.

It was phenomenal. It was a phenomenal race.

It was. A phenomenal race.

I was like 22 and a lot like, damn it.

All right, the Breeders Cup. Juvenile Phillies turf.

This is a mile on the turf course.

There's $1,000,000 race. What about these young Phillies?

Yes, once again. Well, we won it last year with

one we we talked about on this and it was a strong single was

meditated, won the chiefly parched stakes and was going to

the race. It really was looked a cut above

everything else. This year.

It's we talked about a man earlier on.

Ain't a Bryans son. Donica.

Bryans get one in this race. Porta Futura.

It won the same race as Meditate last year.

But when you look at it, it's a lot, a lot smaller horse.

I wouldn't say it's the scorpia horse and I think it will

struggle to get the mail. So I would be against port of

the insurer which is fairly that's probably the shortest

priced one we've got here. The best 2 year old folly we've

seen probably this year in Europe over this distances.

Opera singer sadly in O'Brien's source at one at the Longshong

at the pre like the Treong meeting.

Obviously it's not coming here. It was announced.

It was withdrawn withdrawn last week.

So the horse was just behind it last I bought it's the French

horse. You know it's it might prefer

softer going than it's going to get here but don't think because

it was well beat the opera singer last time out.

You know you want to discount it.

Opera singer is an exceptional horse.

So I would prefer that one and the other one from as I talked

about Algiers, the same trainer combination father and son sets

Simon and Ed Christopher. They've got one of here called

Carla's way and I would probably, definitely, I'll

definitely be including that in a big price as well.

So I think that's got a chance. The one I like actually in this

race, the one I'm going to go for is Chad Brown.

Source is actually hard to justify.

We're getting 12 to one in the UK at the moment, so I think

that's really good value. Probably a bit shorter there.

I know it's only one fairly weak race, won a Maiden and a graded

stakes race before it's jumped into, you know, Group One

company. But the one thing I would say is

by Justify and what a year these horses have fired over here.

I know Kilmore's got it and we've got a horse called City of

Troy by Justify. And once these these horses, if

you watch that horse get through, you know it's only been

running 6667 furlongs. They can't pull it up.

Once that horse gets to a mate. It's won in Group ones by 345

lengths but if you actually let the camera on you can see it go

these horses are going through the lane and I think these I

think justify all of a couple of winners this weekend.

And I'm I'm I'm I'll be pretty, pretty strong on how to justify

beating the EUR here. I didn't.

Have two things being true as as stallions I did not have

justifies progeny being better than American Pharaohs.

And I did not have both of them being great turf sires.

I did not in my they are here we are yeah yeah so that's

certainly the one in that race and I know we talked about the

the city of Troy that you talked about the the classic that

that's your one of the the the Breeders Cup classic next year

already it's going to go for 2000 Gettys in Derby and we know

it's by justifying Kilmore to want to get that albeit's final

race and I would imagine they'll want to get that one to the the

the duct and it could even improve run the dump for the for

the run in the dump for it's tough so that's one if you can

get any we call anti post any any LA books on mixtures classic

I would be right on to city of Troy all.

Right. Race 9 is the last turf race

we're going to cover today it is the juvenile turf.

It again in a mile grade one race here, $1 million online.

This is the boys. Who do we like here?

Not a lot. I don't think this is a as I

said, the best horse we've got you know is City of Troy by a

long, long way. I the horses we've got here are

not in the same same class. I'd probably say these are

probably group two horses. Not Group One horses.

So rubber tie bar and questionable valiant force.

All decent horses all run at a good standard.

But I'm not not strong in any of them at all so I would have no,

no strong fancy on this one. The one I've I've heard about

quite a bit and it's it's a massive price.

Over here is a horse called endlessly.

I know California and tough racing is not brilliant but it's

won three out of three. It's been impressive and you can

get 16 to 1 here. So I'd imagine it'll probably

be, you know be a lot shorter in the in the US I'm having

Mitchells, but as I said if you're in the UK playing this

and including it sort of 681, that's that's a massive price

and I'll be including that. So certainly one race I'll be

probably neither the time I will be playing the exotics in it,

but I'm not playing. There'll be no single bet in

this one for me, unfortunately. Yeah, it's interesting.

I I was I was wondering where you were going to go with this.

Because I think this is an interesting betting race in that

it's very difficult to predict. I'm not.

Sure. If it's the best quality we've

seen in the last. No it's not.

It's I I said I would probably say this is a a level down

there's something right and you know it's like they're all

improving horses. So chances are something could

you know step up and it and it probably will but the moment I'm

I'm not seeing that in the, I would say they're probably

slightly below top level. The best horses are not running

in this race. For your For your money, where's

where's the best? Where has the best turf racing

been in Europe this year? We'll we'll include the UK as

part of Europe still, despite the vote.

Oh, that's a good that's a good geography and politics joke.

Young Mike. Andolfo is it Dokheal?

Is it, is it Longshan? Is it up in Leopardstown?

Is it you know any of these? Is it new market, is it?

I mean is it? Ask it where where are the best

races you think happening right now?

Yeah so certainly we did have we did have one superstar which was

Ace Impact. It won six out of six, won the

most prestigious race, the Cleveland, the Triomphe, one at

easy. The conditions were unusual for

Longshan for that time of year it was, it was quicker ground

than the normal soft, so it was able to show it was a top, top

horse, so, so this year the best horse that came from France, the

best 2, two year olds. I said we've probably seen City

of Troy is probably the most exciting horse we've had since

Frankel. So it's that good so say.

So if you ever get a chance to go and see City of Troy, go go

and see it. So O'Brien's got a good batch of

horses this year. UK horses, I say to Charlie

Appleby, good dolphin. They've not been as good this

year and there's not really been any I would say stand out

performer. I think the big, the big problem

we've got for Europe, certainly for Britain.

You're racing for prestige, you're not racing for money.

The funding the the racing is, is, is not there and the horses

are getting sold off to go to Hong Kong, they're going to

Australia and they're getting bought to go elsewhere.

So we're certainly losing that that sort of horses would maybe

group two, group three, they would probably come over to

Beaters Cup. They're heading now to the likes

of you know Hong Kong and Australia going for things like

the Melbourne Cup and and various things like that so so

we'll still get the horses but you know I don't think this year

it's not been the I think the UK anyway and you've seen Champions

Day on the on the soft ground you know it's it's not been a

not been a great great season but they say there's some really

they say well it was great to see a couple of superstars and

and it's impact unfortunately I said retire now but certainly

with City of Troy and a couple of other two year olds coming

through some really good horses there.

And how much do you use that as your as your base for

handicapping Breeders' Cup. Last year we heard all Rebels

romance has been running in Germany and then the horse runs

them off their feet and caitly, I mean sometimes it's a little

hard to predict what's more important, the form or or or

where they came out. Yeah.

So yeah, definitely the forms, the forms, you know, it's not

everything else. You know you've got to the form

in the book. If you don't get the form in the

book, you know Cody wins. You've got to actually actually

prove that you're actually of that class, you know, as I said,

so we're talking about horses there.

They would think of two year old group two horses.

Do you think they're going to win a Group One?

Well, every horse has got a class ceiling, So I like to make

sure a horse is proved, especially these championship

races to me, you need to be a genuine Group One group, one

horse. You can get away with that and

lower class races, handicaps, group threes, but a lot of these

races are championship races and you do need championship horses.

But the big thing about it, the American thing, is the city can

get European horses beat, one that can be the jockeys can come

out the stalls too slowly, but also with the pace of the race

as well. Some of these races are, you

know, especially likes the French forum coming here and

Andre Fab is a master and he brought horses over.

But the French horses, they sort of just jog and then Sprint to

the line most of their races, whereas it's the opposite, you

know the states you go and it's the other way you know that the

tiring come the end of it. So it's definitely different

running styles and that's what I was trying to allude to in this

meeting. A lot of the horses in European

and a lot of the jockeys are really hold up closers.

And that's why I think this year, I think America will have

a good year because I think the Triangle is definitely going to

suit frontrunners and I'll be basing mostly my bets around the

horses that will be on or close to the lead this year do.

You have a favorite in the Breeders Cup Juvenile on the

dirt. I do.

Is that. Oh, I'll just get back.

I think this is a fast. It is.

I think, yeah, so I think yeah, yeah.

So I think this is Bob Baffert's got three in the race.

One I was blown away with the Ellen year was Prince of Monaco

and that looked an absolute, but I think it's what was it 6 foot

long, 7 foot long horse moving out to a mile in the 16th.

That's a big, big step up and I think there's going to be a pace

burnout here. So I think this could be an

interesting race. I think the the three favourites

have all the strong form but are they are male and 16th horses.

So this may be the one race where let them burn it out and

just the horse maybe just stalking off the pace could pick

up the pieces because I don't think all of them are are

stairs. So I'd be I'd be very keen if

you get any any any strong fancy here or something you you like

all. Right, James.

Well, we really appreciate you. You got anything else from

Louis? I don't just have everything,

James. Where?

Where can people find you this week?

No, I'm just no, just at home. I'll just be, you know, just

basically here in Scotland, just watching.

It You're gonna be tweeting though, right Between.

Between. Between.

Away or whatever. What are we calling now?

I guess we can't call it. Do we call it tweets still?

I guess we're gonna. Be Excellent.

Excellent. Excellent.

You know, I'd love to be there. I'd love to be there.

But maybe, maybe the next thing. So.

Yeah, we'll get James out for Breeders' Cup next year.

Hey, you just tell us when you want to go to Breeders' Cup and

we'll just say that you're part of the broadcast.

Yeah, we can get you. We'll get your credentials.

We'll get your credentials, don't worry about tickets.

You just get your ass to the US and we'll figure it out.

We'll. Get a We'll get you a spot on

Airbnb. You know, all the whole thing.

Yeah. You know, it'll be good if I'll

take you up now. All right.

Well, he is James Welch. He is at jwracing.com.

Literally that on Twitter. jwracing.com is the handle.

Go find him there, James. We always look forward to this

conversation and it never disappoints.

We appreciate your insights. No.

Excellent. Then I'll be.

Like this year to year and it's and it's been not a good job by

me. Will you come on late April next

year and talk Derby with us? Of course, yes.

Let's do that. Yeah, that'd be great.

Yeah, definitely. Let's do that.

Yeah. All right, man, We'll look

forward to it. We'll see you next time.

This has been the horse racing happy hour.

Take care, everybody. Right.

Wait. Thank you very much.

Good luck. OK.