Bayakoa G3, Los Al Futurity G2

Zach, Are we like, live, live or are we?

We are live live baby. How?

About that had. No 20 minutes of live, live

complete. Bum.

I'm Louis Rabo. How is everybody doing?

I had no idea where we're going live.

Shout out to everybody who probably isn't watching.

Thanks for being part of the show tonight.

This is, of course, she's a happy hour, but it's on Twitter

at Horse Happy Hour. We're live on Twitch, Twitter,

and on. YouTube.

We do these shows on Thursday. You can find me at Radio Louie

on Twitter. Zach is at Zach Zayner.

Zach with an H there as well. Short show tonight.

Just wanted to kind of get into a couple of things.

We'll get into a replay of last week's starlet, which I think

taught us nothing about the Oaks race, and who's going to be

qualifying for that first. Bob Befford is back.

Probably not. Eddie's won this thing, what,

seven years in a row? Something like that.

And so I I don't. Think we oh wait, it's like 9,

isn't it? It was like, a ridiculous.

Seven in a row. I was right.

Yeah. Seven.

OK. There you go.

I was like, yeah, yeah. So I I just we didn't really

learn anything. But I do want to watch that way

by There was an article out this week, a concept from from the

Pollock Report and from that group over there about

transferring money out of Kentucky to California.

Yep, I want to talk about that. I talked to Steve Bitten Bender

on my ESPN Radio show here in Mobile a couple of days ago

about this issue itself and what he thought.

And actually he had a better solution, I thought, for

California racing, which I'll get into in a minute.

And of course we'll look at both the Bayakoa and the Los

Alfaturity out there at Los Alamitos racecourse this weekend

there in Cypress in California. But first, let's go ahead and go

back at Los Al closing race on Saturday.

There was the Grade 2 starlet and the other other Baffert won

the race in this one. Go with nothing like you who

travels sweetly around by the 516th pole.

Grazia wider on the track. Great 48 hugs the fence,

continues to run a strong race and Flint's chances threading

forward in the orange colours. Now gets to the outside and is

running on 316th from home. It's nothing like you.

Clear by more than two lengths. Great 48 second on the inside of

Chitallis Flint's chances next Now Great 48 has ducked out and

Chitallis was interfered with. It makes no difference to the

winning result in the starlet because nothing like you is

coasting down the stretch at Los Alamitos to win in a breeze.

Great 48 ended up with. Those are really, really the

slow race. You did everything right.

There's no in there the. Only thing, and as Louis says

about every one of these races, this race is definitely a great

predictor of the Oaks winner, no?

No, no, that's not, that's right.

And so no, it's but look, I mean look, you Good spotting by

Baffert. Good ride, right?

Obviously, Who cares if you go 5 wide in the turn if you win the

race so good enough to win the the $200,000 race there in the

starlet. And if he wins ten in a row, do

they change it to the Bob Baffert Stakes?

I. Probably should.

It will be interesting, Zach, how many things in California

will eventually be named after him.

A. Lot.

I mean it's yeah, yeah, right. I.

Mean cause like any any like controversial things about him

will fall to the wayside for his record.

Like a lot of sports, whether you want to put your quotes or

not. Heroes.

Right. I I think eventually the look

back at Bafford will be that that everybody was doing all the

same stuff and they hate on Bafford is is going to start to

die down a bit. So you know that kind of thing.

So I'm not. I'm not terribly worried about

it, but. Also another double B, Barry

Bonds. Everybody forgets about all of

the drug issues and just remembers What a great.

Yeah, maybe people who care about halls of fame and that

kind of stuff, but you know, for me, I don't.

No. Bafford's Bafford's the best

trainer of two and three-year old horses we've ever seen.

Thoroughbreds in the United States.

So yeah, no, it's not close wins.

Another one there in the starlet horse does very well.

I I, I just, I didn't see a horse in this race that really

that that tickled me. Zach.

No one tickled me in this race. I think most of your quality was

done earlier at Saint Anita in the Breeders cup, juvenile

Phillies as well. So yeah, I think there's a

better group there. I think you're also more likely

that you know your, your, your top oak runners are right now at

you know, fairgrounds or at, you know, maybe at, I don't know,

Gulfstream something like that. Who knows.

But maybe an aqueduct maybe going through that route as

well. So interested to watch that.

But I do think that starlet was nothing to get too excited

about. All right.

So let's get into the second issue of the day here.

The second part of this show I should say and that is this

article called View from the 8th Pole.

It is actually by Republic himself, California racing Heal

thyself. And so there was a, you know

there's a bit of consternation. It's legitimate that the the

purses at Santa Anita, you know those those main special weights

are going to be reduced by $2000 a race at Santa Anita in winter

and by $7500 at Golden Gate, right.

And obviously they're closing Golden Gate And there's mention

of the KTDF, the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund

and something I talk a lot about outside of this show.

And I talk about it you know on the on the the more general

sports show that I do because people might not be aware of the

the funding and how things work in horse racing is we've hit up

a point in the sports history. And I'm not saying it has to be

like this forever, but it has to be right now where we need to

know this is simply a stand alone sport but rather an

industry and that part of that will never go away.

We need to think of it as an industry forever.

The people that work in the barns, the the breeding

operations that are that are out there, the people that grow the

food for the horses and everything else down to the the

veterinarians and the jockeys and everyone else.

Got to think of it as an industry.

There are tons of people, literally thousands and

thousands just show up every day to hang out with horses at

Churchill Downs, right. And so it's that kind of thing,

you know, and obviously we're looking at LaSalle and you know,

San Louis, Rey and San Anita in those spots in LA, same thing,

thousands of people. And so I think we do, We have

hit a point where we need to think of this industry, excuse

me, of horse racing as an industry rather than just as a

sport. And you know, that's not a

popular opinion. I think, I think that people are

really bothered by the racino model where there's casinos

backing it, or in this case in Kentucky with that case the DF

with the money coming from historical horse racing.

And I remember having a debate one time and not debate, just a

discussion at a party with a guy in in Bloomington where Zach and

I went to school at the same time.

And the the crux of the show or the show, the crux of the

conversation was that these guys that I met very nice, were

puppeteers for a living and they were upset because they weren't

getting federal funding for their puppeteering outfit.

And I remember asking, I said, well, you know, if you were to

get that funding and then the government's, you know, the the

party in charge would were to change, what would you do

because they'd probably cut you off.

Do you really want to be reliant on the government for those

things? And I should be consistent and

hold that as my, you know, as my argument for horse racing.

I should be very, I should be stringent about that.

And I'm not because now that I've been behind the scenes and

I've been behind the curtain a little bit, if you will, and

this is more than just a sport, it's an industry, like I said.

And I think that we need to be in a growth mindset, for sure.

But right now we also need to be in a maintenance mindset.

And I think you can do both. I really do.

Money from, excuse me, from Kentucky to California simply

isn't the answer. It's not a sustainable model.

Eventually that's the kind of thing that will get overturned a

little while off in Kentucky for example politically at least

from any kind of change coming from the KTDF we got the

governor was just re elected the the parties the the Republicans

are not going to be out of control in the the house and the

Senate anytime soon and there are enough on the Republican

side that just aren't going to touch this.

There's there's an element in Kentucky of of especially on the

Republican side of people that are purely anti gambling, anti

wagering and will will look at all of horse the the horse

business as as a product of of wagering and that's probably

never going away. But that is becoming more of a

minority. We did get sports wagering in

this state. It started in September.

So it's not as though Kentucky is moving backward from the

issue for rattle 4. It's California I'm worried

about as far as this issue. Yeah, and I mean, Texas

struggles with that too, right? Like.

Yeah, Texas definitely does. Yeah.

No. And these are major markets for

us on this show, which is interesting.

San Diego, Los Angeles, Houston is a huge market for us on this

show and appreciate all the people that listen in those

places, but it's it is watching those places struggle with how

to do this. So for example, the horse

culture is so ingrained that we run the sports books through the

horse racing outlets, right. So all the tracks get several

licenses and they and they run it through that.

And it's not a perfect system. I want to be very clear.

I don't think it's perfect at all, but at least you're leaning

on a group of regulators that are already in place and you

don't have to expand it and spend more money at the state

level when these things can just be put in place.

We're talking already millions of dollars every month in tax

revenue in a state, by the way, that has half the population of

Los Angeles. Right, Yeah.

This is the kind of place where that kind of funding in a place

that needs like lots of states, you know, we have, we have

pension issues, we have you know education funding issues here in

Kentucky. It's not different than other

places. Those are things that are

getting shored up by some of this you know, sports wagering,

it's going into those kinds of funds, it's there, it's pre

earmarked to go into those places, which is part of the

reason that I think it was able to pass.

But yeah, are there issues? The answer is, of course, but

the the solution here is not to send money to California, Zach,

when we were kids. So Zach grew up in Chicago.

I grew up in the western part of Michigan.

I don't know if you were how vividly you remember this, but

there was all the conversation of how do we get water from the

Great Lakes out West? Yes.

They wanted to remember literally a pipe like above

ground pipe. Yeah, and I remember my dad

three times in my whole childhood screaming at the news.

And that was. One of them.

Well, less than a decade ago, they were talking.

About all this stuff. Go ahead.

They were talking about pushing the Mississippi out like to edge

of Nebraska Colorado and and there were environmental people

like and scientists with every right were like you don't know

what that would do to the world. We have no idea.

We've never done that massive of a redirection of water, you

know, and and it's the same thing in a way with like the

finances where like you hear these people were like, oh,

spread the money around and it's like, well, you don't know what

that's going to do to the industry.

You need a a bigger group to be making those decisions.

You can't just have every little government make the decision on

how horse racing is going to be run, you know, you, you.

Not that the NFL should be put on a pedestal for anything, but

at least in this case that NFL model where you have an

overarching, you know model of of management of the larger

funds and then individual funds managed by the teams, right?

Like T-shirt sales, things like that.

The teams can make difference in money based on that, but the

overarching like share it gets shared around.

Sure, it. And it's fascinating.

And this is where the Confederate nature of horse

racing, I don't know a better word.

Than no. Yeah, that's exactly right

state. To state comes out the most

right where if you look at the pictures in the past California

was good. I mean you you had everybody

going to the horse races right And now it's become a bit of AI

don't know I imagine there are there are plenty of circles in

California and other places not just California we're talking

about California So you know I'm bringing it up where you know

the Peter crowd or whatever crowd you want to call it has a

lot of sway and people don't want to be labeled as being the

horse racing people right. You know whatever it is and you

know what the with the rash of of issues at Santa Anita years

back I could see that being absolutely part of it.

I mean still here I, I, I, you know I'll go to an event at my

kids school. OK How's the horse racing going?

Have they have they have they fixed the track yet.

I mean like people that's what they that's what they hear about

right. And so I I would not be

surprised, right. No no.

But seriously that's you know that's what they hear about and

that's what is going around. The answer is no.

By the way, there's still no turf racing at by the way, Zach,

that's the other thing that happened this week.

Churchill made an alliance with Royal Askit to send horses who

win races during Derby week on the turf there to races and

Askit. Oh wow.

Let's say, not a small assumption that that dumpster

fire of a turf course is going to be ready.

Not a small assumption. I I I I don't know.

Maybe I'm, I don't know. And and by the way, all of our

older dirt horses are already going overseas for like races in

Dubai and Saudi Arabia and this kind of stuff.

And now we're going to start sending our best older turf

horses to England instead of having them run in the US

Awesome. By the way, let's be

legitimately like we were just at the at the Breeders Cup.

Excuse me. And and do you really think our

American turf forces are just going to go over to ask it and

be fine? I mean, come on, let's be

realistic. No, I'll be interested actually

decide to go over to Ascot to race.

My guess is it's going to be a very small number of people who

aren't doing that. Well, and it's it's different

because they're they're not as flat, right, like they allow.

For country, yeah. And and on top of that, like who

was it 3-4 years ago? There was a three time winner of

the Ascot that was like 6 years old, Seven years old like they

train those horses to run forever.

Yeah. In in a very small sample size

of Kentucky Downs, right. And so some of that European

style stuff, but it's like 6-7 days a year, right.

So it's not as if we have, you know, just.

A. A circuit that you can run

around. Right.

And I've always wondered too, if they shouldn't figure out a way

for Kentucky Downs to run mini meets rather than just the 17

dayer. I mean, it's already a mini

meet. I shouldn't refer to it that

way. But anyhow, just that that's the

other story. But this getting back to this

this Pollock story and I and I think you know it would be

really quick, really clear excuse me, just I I think

there's more of an opportunity here for the tracks in

California to finally forge those partnerships that they're

going to have to forge. Because this last election

really exposed in California the rift between the groups on

wagering in that state and is they're just going to have to go

do it themselves. They're just going to have to

figure out make a partnership take a pay cut as far as the the

slots or whatever that they're going to be able to set up in

these tracks because otherwise look people are going to follow

the money and and and it was awesome.

We had a great time and we loved being in the neighborhoods, but

I looked. Up what it cost to buy a house

there. And you could.

Fit a house in half of my basement and it cost twice as

much as my house. It's just.

And and Turfway has bigger purses right now.

I mean it's just it just these are just facts and and so I just

they got to figure it out because.

And we talked about on this show and and you know I know Sherva's

listening and he'll crush me for this but this isn't isn't a good

sport if Southern California's not.

Involved, it isn't. It's not a good sport in.

This if that part of it isn't great.

Not just, not involved. I shouldn't have used that word.

I apologize. Should be.

It has to be great. Sanity has to be great.

Delmar has to have great meats. That has to happen.

And and look, I know, I know. It is so easy, if you wanted to

be a snob, to look down at LaSalle.

But man, at the end of the day on a Sunday, isn't it nice that

there's LaSalle? Isn't it nice?

Yes. I think, yeah, we need, we need

those tracks to be as healthy as possible.

We need those things to be as healthy as possible.

And you got an ownership group at at LaSalle that is aging and

AJD and there's going to have to be a solution or that place is

going to go by the wayside as well.

Louie Rebo hanging out with you. Horse Racing Happy Hour producer

Zach alongside tonight. Thanks for hanging out with us

at horse Happy Hour on Twitter. You can find me at Radio Louie.

Let's get into the let's get into the handicapping for the

weekend. A couple of greatest stakes.

They're both at Los Al this. Los Alamitos.

Damn right You can check out our guy Los Ponies out there as

well. The Friday races, the Byacoa

Awesome field. I'm legitimately excited to see

the seven horses, Phillies and mares going a mile and a 16th.

And then of course on Saturday is the low Sal Fraturity and

we'll. Get into the man.

And what it means and and what it is as a as a race because you

know on this Derby trail Zach, we again we talk about those

races that are good predictors of future success and the ones

that are not. But that's a race with practical

moves. Slow down.

Andy Mackenzie more spirit. Mastery.

Shared belief. Dortmund.

I mean legitimately good horses violence.

I think I'm out of this race. Legitimately great horses have

come out of this race for years. It was a Grade 1 downgraded to a

grade 2 recently but we'll get into that in a minute.

Let's start though on Friday with that baiko last race on the

card at Los Alamitos. The eighth race of that day,

going to mile on a 16th on their dirt course there a couple of

interesting horses in here. So Midnight Memories is the one

here for Bob Baffert coming off of the long layoff hasn't run

since March at Santa Anita. And this.

Is a horse. That's. 4 for six lifetime on

the dirt, On dry dirt I should say excuse me. 4 for seven.

Overall, 322 thirds place finishes and I worry about the

layoff. It's the only thing that Baffert

doesn't do well that's under 20% essentially for him and that's

coming back after a six month plus layoff and so I think this

is kind of a soft spot for her to land.

Juan Hernandez gets the ride here.

Who by the way 6 races, three first and three seconds at Los

Al. That's meet this.

Poor guys try to make a living rate doing all the races at Los

Al and then these guys, Juan Hernandez just swoops in for two

races and picks them off. So the one is interesting.

The The favorite's going to be Desert Dawn on the outside, and

she is. She's a great horse if you'll

love horses that run second and third.

She really is 9 finishes of second and third in 17 runs

lifetime. Three out of six this year.

She's one win the last two years and I want to give Trader Phil

the motto credit here. This is where she should be.

This is the level that she's at. She ran to the Breeders Cup

distaff and frankly ran really damn well and had a real

legitimate shot at the end to make a move.

Just couldn't catch up with any Maddox in that one.

Was right behind randomized and laid off Vida and all that group

lost by less than a length and 1/2.

So because I'm going to lean on her, I think you can single

here, lean on her at the end of that card as opposed to trying

to use Midnight Memories in this one.

I think for Baffert that's a bridge too far for her, I think.

I think this is a warm up race to get her ready to go back to

Santa Anita traditional opening day again the day after

Christmas out there in LA that I think she's getting set up for

that. I think they're going to bring

her back here. Let her legs under there.

Has she hit the board? Maybe.

I think she probably does, right?

Six runs out of seven she's hit the board in her lifetime.

Has run the one time in March this year.

But I don't think they don't bring her back if they don't

think she's ready. She's been working really

quickly, but not in something I like to point out about the

Bafford horses. She's not working out in that

traditional 5656 furlong type of workout.

He's got her cut back to four furlongs.

So I think this is more of just a warm up for her to get ready

for more next year at Santa Anita and then see where she

ends up. But like I said, Desert Dawn.

This is where she should be and I think she's got a legitimate

shot to just pick this one off and frankly probably win for fun

if you wanted to. The next day at the lowest

Alphaturity is the same track, excuse me, the same course mile

to 16th. At Lo Salle they're running for

200K in the grade two. You know Bafford's got three in

here. He's got Winstock, who's the the

longest of the odds. Broke his maiden in in in

October at Santa Anita under Kyle Frey.

Keeps them out here. I like that a lot.

Actually, that's not something bafford always does.

He's willing to very much move around on jockeys.

What's prime is in this race the five Flavian pratt's in town to

ride Flavian's over 2IN Lo Salle in these big races this this

meet and and Baffert is 3 right and so Baffert runs a horse they

win at La Salle. This is where he really got his

kind of his start in California of course with quarter horses.

But he's also got why me up in here she he's the 6th horse he's

on the outside ran in the BC juvenile this was his horse on

Friday that we thought if Baffert was going to win a race

this was it right. He ends up, he ends up

finishing, excuse me, 8th out of nine horses almost 30 lengths

back. So he was nowhere to be found.

Now, to be fair fierceness beat everybody by about 30 lengths

that day, but really, he really wasn't anywhere there.

He didn't seem interested in the race, didn't seem to like it

very much at Santa Anita. He also lost the American

Pharaoh before that. Now that was a grade one and

that was to Mewth and he did B BU that day was easily in that

first group, not in the second group.

But I'm going to throw him out today.

I'm also going to try to beat Coach Prime who's coming out of

a one mile win at Delmar in a maiden special last out under

Flavia and Pratt by a billion miles but so do Winstock, man.

So if I'm going to use a, if I'm going to use a Baffert here, I'm

going to use Winstock to two, five to one on on him.

I think you're going to get every bit of that on Saturday as

well. The other horse though that I'm

fascinated by is Moonlight Sonata.

That's a Tim Yacht Team trainee. If we're going to get a horse

that eventually steps up and turns into something for the

Derby that doesn't have to move Barnes, that doesn't have to

change anything. It's going to be Timiac team and

his numbers are getting better. It's interesting to watch his

his evolution. The poor guy was thrown in the

in the spotlight with the with the suspensions at Churchill

Downs and I wonder if it was a little too much and just having

these horses earlier and not having to do all the switches

and those things could be more interesting.

Giovanni Franco gets the ride here on moonlets and out of the

one horse on Saturday 75. Buyer is first out 6 1/2

furlongs, so he will stretch out, but that's what they do

when they're two. Dad's, Malibu Moon, Mom's by

distorted humor. He's obviously built just fine

for this kind of distance and for this kind of test.

So I'm really, I'm interested to see him.

He's the one here. Like I said, Son of Malibu Moon.

This is the kind of horse that I'm fascinated with that if he

can keep it going, there's going to be no change in his lifestyle

and anything that he gets, you know the Soma folks are going to

keep him with Tim throughout the spring.

If there's going to be a Derby contender out of here, Zach, I

would lean on Moonlight Sonata. And again, I'm going to be

really clear about this race. Here are the trainers that have

won this race. Yak team won it last year with

Practical Move. I think that we say that number

one, Doug O'Neill won it with Slow Down Andy, Slow Down.

Andy came back and had a very nice year as a three and four

year old, right? So that that's a horse.

Oh man, am I mixing him up hanging.

He won it in 21, so he would have been, yeah.

So he was four years old this year, came back, ran really,

really well in a couple of high level races.

Spielberg the year before that. I don't know if people remember

that. That was with Flavia and Pratt

and the 1000 words before that 1000 words of course in the 2020

Derby was the one who bucked himself and was scratched in the

paddock with with trainer with Jimmy the trainer.

And so just made it to the Derby field, though improbable.

The year before that. McKenzie, the year before that

mastery. The year before that Moore

Spirit. Dortmund, All those horses by

the way, 123-4567 in a row. Trained by Bob Baffert.

So if he hits the strikes don't be so stunned at all your belief

before that violence, before that looking at Lucky Pioneer

the Nile. It's a mischief.

This might be, and I'm not exaggerating, the best predictor

of future success of any 2 year old race on the calendar.

It just might be of of absolutely high level success in

the future so it's one to watch on Saturday because of that and

so make sure that you are tuned in for it.

A horse that I didn't even talk about in the lost of health

fraternity. By the way it's Stronghold it's

the other Phil D'amato. He's got the you know he's got

Desert Dawn on Friday he'll have Stronghold on Saturday.

Son of go Zapper home bred for the for the for the Wallers

didn't love the Bob Hope last time going 7 furlongs had the

lead for a little bit at oh boy with the mile pole right after

that something like that lost to Nisos Nisos blew everybody away

there finished second up the track keeps Antonio Fresu here

an interesting choice for the ride here.

I think he'll be fine but has been training at LaSalle which I

do like. He does have a bullet the last

out, but has been over the surface and LaSalle does two

things it it favors speed if you're if you're able to Sprint,

but the other part is if you're coming off the turf it's a very

effective course as well from any of those courses.

Stronghold obviously has been running on dirt.

Brooks Maiden at Churchill over the one mile course, so that's

one turn. We are going two turns here for

the first time but going back to route should not be an issue for

him. Phil D'amato does that at 19%

with a massive sample size as well.

So if I had to guess in the somewhere in the 1-2 and three

horses here, I'm going to be looking for a winner and trying

to beat the five and the six on the outside for trainer Bob

Baffert. So there you go.

All right, Zach, what time are we at on the show here?

Since I have to switch, I'm 25 minutes.

I think I did my job and apologies for looking.

Thank you to a homeless person, but there you go.

Any questions for me, Zach? You guys got anything going on

this weekend? We have.

What do we have this weekend is your life.

Tomorrow, mine right now, with everything that's going on.

Yes, basically tomorrow I do have a bourbon and poker party,

which it's high end. The person who's running the

party said he wants minimum $50 bottles.

Yeah. Exactly.

For a bourbon party that it's like, OK.

We're going to pull out the stops, then let's go. $40 Uber

Ready. That's right.

Yeah, right. Yeah.

So I'm going to go to that and then next week we take the RV to

Maryland. So we'll we'll do another trip

and pass like far South of you in Nashville.

There you go. By the way, the Locile meet

closes on Sunday, and so they'll run the the glorious, the King

glorious. Excuse me on Sunday.

That's a cool race. I just got the the past

performances from that one from the folks at Locile and that is

a that's a cool race. There's a bunch of bunch of

horses in there. This one called Size Does Matter

that it's just a name that makes me smile.

That's all in the same race. In the same race as gentlemen's

club. So apparently they got dirty

minds out there in California. So here you go.

I'm literally your bow. He's producer.

Zach. We're going to get out of here.

We're going to pay the tab. We will see you next week on the

horse racing happy hour. Zach, I man, go ahead and play

the music but I am a busy man here.

We got a we got a head basketball coach is probably

going to be fire tomorrow, so. It's going to be.

A lot of radio this weekend. If you were interested in such

things, you can check me out on ESPN Louisville 11:50 every

every weekday, ESPN louisville.com.

You can even ask your smart speaker to play ESPN 680.

And yeah, you can find us here, 40 minutes of pod, part of that

first Gen. Series as well.

Yeah, that is a great podcast. I will have new Derby rankings

out this weekend after the low Sal Fraturity and I will take

the low Sal Fraturity winner and 2nd place horses.

Any consideration for that? Louis I'm I'm calling out Jay

Davis from this podcast. If he doesn't cover Giannis ball

gate that this week on 40 Minutes of POD, I'm going to be

really sad. OK.

I want thoughts on that. Why?

Won't we talk about? Giannis.

Why not? That was it's it's college

basketball adjacent. I mean, that was a hilarious

slash disgusting thing, so. There you go.

All right. I'll ask Jeff later.

Thanks for hanging out.