Louie’s Eclipse Ballot & Fake Derby Preps

Hello, welcome in. We'll go ahead.

Welcome to the Horse Racing Happy Hour 2024 edition.

Producer Zach out here doing work.

I'm Louie Rebeau. Thanks for hanging out.

You can find me on Twitter at Racing.

We're going to start over. Hi, I'm Louie Rebel.

You can find me at Radio Louie and you can find the show of

Horse at Horse Happy Hour if you haven't found us there yet.

If you're watching us on Twitter, thanks for joining in.

I'm here to talk to you about my Eclipse votes tonight and I'm

also here to look at what I'm calling 3 Derby Preps, even

though only one of them actually has Derby points attached to it.

I will explain my thought process as to why I actually

think there are three Derby preps on Saturday.

Zach, how are you? How was the New Year?

How was the trip back to Austin from Maryland?

It was, it was interesting. So we we did the thing that you

can do in an RV, which is why I love the RV.

We were like, you know what, we're done with this Maryland

thing. We're going to turn around and

go home and we're just going to truck it, right?

No big deal. So about midway through day one

of two days of trucking it, my wife accidentally butt dials my

mother who's staying at our house.

And they talk for a second and my mother's like, oh, you are on

the road. Are you headed to Hershey Park

which is a theme park? We're like, no, we're headed

home And she's like, oh, well, I have friends staying here till

Thursday, so this is Sunday. So I we have the choice of

either telling her to leave, like, Nope, sorry, we're going

to be home, your friends have to go, or finding other things to

do. So we visited Biltmore, which is

the Vanderbilt mansion out there in North Carolina.

And then we did the Hot Springs experience in Hot Springs AR.

So we went to all the the bath houses there to check out the

history and we hiked across the mountain.

What do? Your family do In bath houses is

your family's business. OK?

Thank you. I'm not.

But this is a family show. Please keep the bath house.

Talk to yourself. All right.

We had a good Christmas over here, too.

And, well, Christmas. I've done, what, three shows

since Christmas or whatever. But, yeah, we had a good New

Year. So how's that?

Thanks to all of our guests. Most recently, John Piasik, of

course, Maryland thoroughbred breeders, Dan Illman from the

DRF and Steve Kornacki from NBC all jumping on and doing shows

with us between Christmas and New Years during the busiest

part of the years. We got a Road to the Preakness

series going again this year. And of course, we had Kornacki

on to talk about his Eclipse ballot.

He and I have done exactly the same number as we've turned

into. And so let's talk about that.

You know, a lot of people right now, this time of year, they do

the thing, they put their eclipse votes out on Twitter and

let you kind of comment on it and all those sorts of things.

And it's been interesting because I know last year when I

did mine, I had a couple of opinions that were pretty

different from from most people. I think this year we have a big

question, Zach in, You know, the Cody's Wish story was really

incredible and it was really, it moved a lot of people.

There's no other way to say moved a lot of people.

And I'm leaving all my own personal feelings and all that

out of it. I'm wondering how many people

are going to vote for that horse based on sentimentality rather

than based on what he actually did on the dirt at the different

tracks where he was. We will find out on Saturday if

he's a finalist, for example, for Horse of the Year.

My sense is that he isn't at the top of my horse of the Year

ballot for all the track reasons, but I think for horse

racing, almost certainly he would be on the top of that

list. But let's go straight to the

categories that I know everyone pays attention to the most.

We'll go to three-year old male here in another year where there

wasn't an obvious because of the Triple Crown sort of course,

right. There wasn't one that won two of

the races or you know, one bunch of craps and then came in and

dominated the Derby or anything like that.

Of course we had three different winners of the Triple Crown

races, but we did have one back-to-back winner and two of

the major races going two turns in this country.

That was Arcangelo. He wins the Belmont and he comes

back and he wins the Traverse. So he got my vote for first

place, the three-year old division.

I don't think that's surprising to anybody, but that's where I

ended up going there. I did get Forte the the nod for

second spot. I know that lots of people just

remember him not running in the Derby and therefore being

disqualified from running in the Preakness, running in the

Belmont in second place. But I think people forget he ran

in the gym. Danny won that in the slop.

He was the Florida Derby winner, if people remember that.

Of course before that the Grade 2 fountain of youth as well,

one, two grade ones was up the track a little bit in the

traverse behind Archangelo. So when they went head to head

and in the the biggest race of Saratoga season, he wasn't good

enough. And so I put him second.

And then in the third spot I had a ghost, rodent, rodent.

And I just this was more just I didn't love any of the other

horses in that three-year old group and I think best race run

on American soil by a three-year old, which here was August Rodin

in the Breeders. You won the Breeders Cup turf as

a three-year old in that pretty important Irish breeding line

that we talked about with James Welsh leading into the Breeders

Cup. And so I put him there because I

thought he was a worthy spot, a worthy you know, it was worthy

at least of a vote, even if it was just for one race in North

America. That's where I think I'll be

especially different than other people on the three-year old

ballot. I think otherwise nothing that

I've said just now stands out as a crazy sort of vote.

Let's go to three-year old Philly.

And on this one I thought there were a couple of different ways

to know I I unfortunately, I think a horse that could have

pressed for three-year old Philly was Maple Leaf Mount and

of course. Oh my gosh.

Yeah. And and so we didn't get to see

her all the way into the fall. I wonder if she would have been

a contender today when we got to the Blue Nurs at the Breeders

Cup if she would have been part of that conversation.

But unfortunately she was not and and frankly she wasn't even

in our materials because she's got a Grade 1 winner technically

in the United States. And so I I think pretty

mischievous sort of by default all of her early season success

is obviously comes out of the fairgrounds.

In that fairgrounds, Oaks runs second.

They give her the time off and she ends up running and winning

the Kentucky Oaks. The Acorn in the test all in a

row and obviously that test was was was marred by the Maple Leaf

mill injury. But she did come back in a in

the sloppiest cotillion in history and run second in that

one, the ceiling crusher. But I think just before that the

fact that she won all those great ones, especially against

other three-year old Phillies for me was good enough in that

three race run, that three race, three race stretch if you will

to jump into that. I had surge capacity in the

second spot here amongst 3 year old Phillies ran obviously in

the matriarch at at Del Mar winning by a head against older

horses and I love that. So she wins the grade one

against older horses out West in a full field of 12 at Del Mar in

December. Before that of course winning in

several graded stakes at lower levels but I love that search

capacity stepped up beat the Phillies and mayors of older

ranks in that race out West. Chad Brown shipping her out to

San Diego for that one so love that effort from her.

And then my third spot there, I gave it to Maj. and I think Mage

actually kind of had a weird underrated year and was about a

neck from having one of the great three-year old seasons.

And really I think maybe being 3 year old of the year had she

been able to pull out the Breeders Cup mile against

That'll be older horses, but against the boys too, she had a

huge race under Royce and Murphy.

Really wonder if she had won that race, what we'd be talking

about with her. But she got my third place vote

amongst the three-year old Philly candidates.

I don't think anything there is very especially different or or

what have you. This is where I think I'm

different older dirt mail. And this is where I think just

overall body of work the entire year that for me elite power was

the best older dirt mail. Now I know that in general

Eclipse voting there's a major lean toward people voting for

two turn dirt horses. In this case I thought Elite

Power was the best sprinter the entire year.

His one slip up was in the four go.

It was behind Gunite, who I all think all of us think was a

terrific sprinter. Elite Power came back, beat him

in the Breeders Cup Sprint with no effort at all.

So I put him on top. I do have Cody's wish in the

second spot on this category, another guy that was not much of

A two turned horse, but I do think his races stand out as

well. 4100 speed, 400 buyer speed figures.

And of course his only loss was in the Whitney trying to go two

turns behind Whiteabario who I have third and that's because

Whiteabario ran two good races. Did he he win two really, really

important ways, Races in the Whitney and in the Breeders Cup

Classic? He did.

He absolutely did. But I don't know the whole body

work for the entire year. I'm less moved by Guadavario

than other people, which is funny because I was the one who

had Guadavario season as a hashtag on this show.

And so for me to have him in 3rd, I think is probably a

little surprising to some people who follow this show.

But for me, just just overall, you know, he runs in the Met,

he's behind Cody's wish. So there to me puts him one spot

behind Cody's wish in the one match that they had.

They did stretch him back out in the dutro barn there and I think

did right by the horse toward the end of the year.

And he'll get my third place vote there for older dirt male.

And then we get on to a horse that I think has absolute

ability to win horse of the year and her name is idiomatic.

So idiomatic. Got my first place vote for

older dirt female even though this year she won on all three

surfaces, which is pretty incredible actually.

I think this year, no, this year, excuse me, it was just at

turf play on the synthetic. And then of course she flipped

over to the dirt. And after she did all she did

was win the Shawnee, the Delta, the Delaware handicap.

Excuse me. Then she ran in the personal

Lance and the spinster of course finished it off by edging out

and winning the British Cup distaff over randomized.

So I thought had a really nice year as well.

And so yeah, give me idiomatic on top for older dirt female.

I also love that she ran a huge number of races this year.

Nine times blood, eight of them. One second place.

Like I said, switching surfaces. They're very impressive to me.

I thought that she was easily the best older dirt female this

year. I did have a good night.

All of them. The second spot, apparently.

I love sprinters. I had no idea until I did this

balloting Won that Breeders' Cup, Billionaire Sprint.

Another one of those. Back to backers for that.

So I gave her the second spot here.

Thought she had a really nice year for trader Chad Brown who

we'll talk about later when we get to trainers and I put her in

that spot for older female and 2nd, I have EZ Third, a very

incomplete grade for her this year.

I think had she run in the Breeders Cup she probably would

have won and I think we'd be talking about EZ on the same

level. As an idiomatic, I think I would

probably still lean idiomatic even if she had run a little bit

more in the fall. That is EZ because of the body

of work, because of having run nine times getting those eight

wins. But EZ just ran in the very best

company the whole time, Churchill Downs and then at

Saratoga wins and dry go wins over wet go, etcetera.

To me, really, really good season.

Gets my third place vote there as well.

We'll move to the male sprinter and then we'll get to horse of

the year. I guess we'll do 2 year olds

after that. You know, I'm going to, I'm

going to skip the Sprint, look at that.

I'm pulling an envelope here, Zach.

I'm going to get into the two year olds and I thought this was

an interesting year. This is where I think I got it

pretty wrong last year. And so I wanted to make sure

that I spent time making sure that I did this the right way On

the male side. I I did the cop out and that was

I put fierceness in the first spot.

He wins the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

And frankly the way that he won the Breeders Cup Juvenile is why

I voted for him in the top spot as two year old male.

In this case. I have locked in second place

here, obviously locked He is the Todd Pletcher trainee ran third

in that Breederscript Juvenile but did run the Breeders

futurity at Keeneland before and then before that of course broke

his maiden at Saratoga. Just a really good year running

third in the Breeders cup. Juvenile, excuse me, puts him

into very, very good company as well.

And after lunch I had Muth who's actually running.

We'll talk about him for a run on Saturday.

Ran second in that British Cup. Juvenile won the American

Pharaoh before that at Del Mar and the best pal he ran second

in before that out there on the West Coast.

I do think that second place finish puts him in a good spot.

I think that this Saturday he has a chance to really show that

he's the best horse in Southern California that's just turned 3

and I think it's there's a real possibility that he'll do that

on Saturday. Now here's where I think I there

is a chance on the 2 year old side that I am a little bit

different because I have a grass horse on top for a 2 year old

Philly and her name is hard to justify.

She was 3 for three this year, broke her maid in Saratoga, then

went down to Aqueduct, won the Miss Grillo and then shipped out

last and won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Philly turf.

All those under Flavian Pratt, all those for trader Chad Brown.

I just thought she had a really, really terrific year and I think

we have this bias against her horses for some reason.

But I love the fact that she ran three times, won all three of

those races. I I think that she's absolutely

one to watch as she as she grows and being in the Chad Brown barn

and being able to mature with him I think will only be a major

positive. I do have, just FYI, in the

second spot, she obviously won the British Cup Juvenile

Phillies race on the girls side by a neck over Jody's Pride was

another horse that's actually listed in here as well winner

the Matron. And after that I had Life talk

in the third spot, another pletcher trainee Bill Mott

trains. Just FYI.

We'll talk about Bill Mott later on today as well in this

episode. But yeah, just an underrated

year by the way for life talk. One or twice hit the board in

every race except for the Breeders cup.

Juvenile Phillies. And she ran 4th in that race by

3 1/2 legs, came back, ran in the demo zone after that.

Shipped back to New York and won that race.

Love that they shipped her back, love that she was ready to go.

And so I'll put just FYI in the third spot there amongst the two

year olds now horse of the year before we get to the humans.

I did put idiomatic on top and I I think that the nine runs, the

eight wins, I put White Abario second and a horse that we

didn't talk about but I had as my male turf horse of the year

was up to the mark and I think up to the mark was a was a neck

from beating August Rodin in the Breeders Cup and from having

probably horse of the year type year for up to the mark and so I

have him third. If you wanted to talk to me

about moving up the mark up to the mark further up in the

standings, man, I'm here for it. I I absolutely think he had a

fantastic year and I think any of those three could be horse of

the year and I wouldn't even blink an eye.

I do wonder though, like I said, I don't have Cody's wish in my

top three. I do wonder how many people who

vote on this will go the sentimental route rather than

the on the track route and vote for Cody's wish we should. 75%.

I don't know. It'll be interesting.

I don't know. I I'm.

Betting. I'm betting the vast majority of

people do that, because at the end of the day.

I get it. I do.

I get it, people. Want to be on the side of

history and Cody's Wish is an awesome story.

And you can say I voted for Cody's wish.

It's, you know, it's not this, but I'm going to make a

comparison. It's almost like a a lifetime

achievement award, right? Where, yeah, exactly.

You give the MVP to somebody who might not have been the MVP that

year. You know, they've had a pretty

good career, that kind of thing. And that's what Cody's wish

we'll get here. Let's get to the people side of

this thing. I did vote for Noah and the ark

for steeplechase. Worse, in case anybody I was

wondering, I do vote on the steeplechases.

I do go back and watch those races and try to get an idea of

who my favorites are. Let's get to the owners.

I have Gandolfin on top. I gave a shout out to Brutko

Shikandonz as my second owner here.

And if you're wondering who Bruno is, Bruno had I have him

because he has the most wins in North America.

He also had the most starters with over 1100 and his horses

won 173 races this year. So I just thought it was cool

that there's a guy who's out there just owns a bunch of

horses. He's running them all over.

I looked him up on Equibase to get more of a sense of what his

operation looks like. Hey guys everywhere, so shout

out to Bruno. Great year for them.

Gave him the second spot. Well, Juddmont, the third spot

there. On the ownership side, Juddmont

had a really, really good year for earnings and I thought a

really good record in graded stakes as well.

On the greater side, I did go with Godolphin on top, Calumet

second and Stone St. in 3rd. I expect a Dolphin to sweep

those two categories. I think that's a place where

I'll be very, very similar to my fellow Eclipse voters in that

way. Jockey was tough this year

because I. So here I I thought about a lot

of different options. And you know, I think it's

natural to go to IRAD with his numbers just as pure numbers.

And and I do have him on top in the first spot and then I think

after that is where you can get a little bit more creative as

far as who you think had the best year.

I happen to think who had the best year as far as quality, not

just quantity plus quality that's floppy and Pratt.

So I have him second, excuse me, I have him third actually,

believe it or not. And I think just for quality,

his greatest stakes wins etcetera.

It's changed a little bit by running in smaller fields in

California and some of those horses.

But with as much time as he's spending away from California in

major parts of the year, I I think that he's having in just a

couple time. And the fact that the guy runs

just as well in LA as he does in New York is pretty remarkable

and I think he's deserving of that.

But I put Javier Castellano in the second spot riding Mage and

then riding Archangelo. That's a guy who had a great

year, won yet another traverse, etcetera.

So I think just for what Javier Castellano accomplished with the

three-year olds, very impressive.

I put him in the second spot, like I said, Flavia Pratt, just

a great year. You know, that leaves off great

years for guys like Junior Alvarado.

Flora Giroux has just had a terrific year.

Tyler Gaffellion had another unbelievable year at least,

mostly on the Kentucky circuit. And just a great year.

Juan Hernandez out out West just becoming an absolute stunner of

a great jockey at Bo Santa Anita and at Delmar and just one that

you know isn't on my ballot but I love Louis sighs is another

one of these guys came back from the injury really well not easy

to do so that was an impressive thing that we had this year.

John Velasquez I left off I mean just a really right now the the

top of the Sport 10/12/15 jockey is just really, really good.

There's a great jockey essentially on every major

circuit which is really fun and and so that was a little bit

more difficult. I had Axel Concepcion as my

apprentice jockey and now to train and this one was a little

bit different because I, you know it would be easy to go by

numbers and if you went by earnings for example you would

just put Brad Cox on top. I put Brad in second place and I

think he had an incredible year again just a a terrific set of

races and and and you know graded spots 902 starters coming

into when they sent us this you know I mean probably 930 by the

end of the year. Different tracks different

surfaces different circuits etcetera.

The guy's just wildly consistent man.

I mean just really is and I I put him in second.

I thought Bill Mott had a really great year too just a really

really great year and especially good Breeders' Cup and so I put

him in 3rd. I thought that Bill Mott was

definitely worth having on my ballot and so I left him on

there as well. But I have it first place for

Chad Brown and. It's mostly because if you look

at the total number of starters he actually had, which is right

at right at just below 900, is essentially where he ended up.

His graded stakes. He had twelve grade one wins

this year. He had just as many as Brad Cox

total overall graded stakes. He had the most, and that's with

fewer starters. So that's nine more graded

stakes than the next, than the next trainer.

And if we're talking about the top of the sport, who's the very

best? Give me Chad Brown, the guy who

won the most stakes this year and it's it's worth remembering

too his stakes percentage is incredibly high and often he has

multiple runners in the same race.

So he's he's hurting his own percentage by running in a lot

of the stakes races that he's in.

So there you go there's my there's my different votes for

Eclipse awards. Didn't want to spend too much

time on that sack. But.

Listen, you know the one thing, and I know I haven't talked to

let you do your Eclipse award thing.

The one thing I can say about Chad Brown is the man can pick

races. No, that's right.

He. Knows how to place his horses in

the right spot. And he also too and and I don't

but it's not a by the way I'm not saying like oh he has a

rabbit out there, the horse. No he's he's great at placing

horses who have different running styles to the same.

Right. So like in Italian stands out,

she's in the you know she's going to go to the front in her

races and then he'll have you know a white beam or something

like that and just maybe two horses that is chasing her.

And if it in Italian gets her first grade if white beam

catches her, great. You know he doesn't you know

it's not not going to lose sleep.

But yeah, he's as good at that as anybody that I can think of.

And I really, I mean especially on the East Coast, him and

Fletcher, I mean they just, and Bill Mott's just been

unbelievable. The guy's just awesome.

So I feel good about my top three.

I don't think I'll be right. I think there's a good chance.

Speaking of which, by the way, been on this show.

So it's not, it's not that I think Janet Antonucci is going

to get a ton of votes because she's the first female trainer

to win the Triple Crown race. I certainly hope so.

Like Mark that in history, you know for that's right.

That's right. But I just body work wasn't

wasn't Eclipse worthy to me. But I understand the moment.

I hope you know like the Ntra has the the moment of the year

what have you. I hope that people will look at

her go back and watch her watch the Belmont.

It's as good as it's as good as a videos we've had in horse

racing in a long last there are my my Eclipse votes for 2023.

Please don't take them away. National turf riders and

broadcast. All right.

So let's talk about three different spots.

We're going to New York, Kentucky and California this

weekend to look at races for three-year olds.

Let's start with the one that actually has attached Derby

points. And then I'll make up a case

that both the San Vicente grade two out at Santa Anita and the

the preview at Turfway Park are both actually Derby preps as

well. And you may be thinking, well

Louie, they don't have any points attached to them.

And when I told a friend of the show, John Sherba that I would

be talking about the San Vicente as a Derby prep, he kind of he

scoffed at it, text wise, as much as you can scoff in a text.

He scoffed at it and I decided I'll make my case later.

But the Drone Stakes has only been on the dirt for a couple of

years. But it's at a mile on the dirt.

One turn there at Aqueduct 3 year olds in this race 150K.

It's a listed stakes. At one point the this was a

exact of all things. This was a grade one race on the

turf and it was in April. So we are now in Aqueduct

instead of Belmont running this one.

It is now considered a prep for the Kentucky Derby.

You've got a big favorite in drumroll please out of that Brad

Cox barn. Javier Castellano coming back up

from Miami for the day will be aboard.

This horse ran third last out in the Remsen gets back to a mile

where he broke his maiden. Checking the weather for New

York would be a big key for this weekend because over the muddy

go he was actually OK he wants he was OK and we're looking at a

really reasonable chance of rain at Aqueduct on Saturday and but

it will be probably after this race is run because they're

running it earlier in the card. It's probably going to rain

around 233 o'clock. So they should have dry

conditions but it's also going to be colder and bleep.

It's going to freeze overnight in Queens.

We'll probably have temperatures right around 3035 for race time.

How will he react? Well, good news.

He ran in the Colwood reps and happened up before it was just

fine under Javier Castellano. Gets a little bit of time off

here, about a month between races.

Horse really does seem ready. This is second off.

The layoff of Brad Cox goes to 29% that way.

Horse we talked about last week on the shows at Sweet Soddy.

J won the heft, won the first race on the road to the

Preakness. They are going to run.

I checked with Daniel when they're going to run this horse

on Saturday. That is the plan.

So A7 day layoff, this horse is coming back.

I don't want to hear about your prissy horses in their three

month layoffs. I don't want to hear about it.

We're going to back to the 1980s where everybody runs a week

later. Is like what only two races in a

week Sweet Saudi J is going to run with Dylan Davis ran under

Barbosa last time in the half won and a half by 6 lengths.

A reminder this is just a furlong longer there at Aqueduct

going one term is 3 for eight this month so I don't I don't

know what to do with Sweet side of Jay.

I'm not going to lie. But to be fair trainer Ray

Gitner has done this 13 times in the last year and he's won four

of those races. So if anyone's going to turn a

horse around this quickly, it's going to be him.

The other, excuse me, the other major favorite here is El Grande

O the four Horse here, Kendra Carmouche and Linda Rice.

Linda Rice set the record for for trader wins in New York last

year in 2023. And that's another woman.

So we've had a couple of women in New York kicking ass this

year. Her and of course Jenna

Antonucci. Kendrick comes in on this horse.

Nine to five, one to one, even money by the way.

On the one horse here in drumroll please El Grande O

coming in be the ninth start already lifetime for this horse

alongside Sweet side EJ. They'll both have nine starts in

this one. Has run in all kinds of

conditions. Ran in that champagne in a mile.

Didn't love the conditions. Finished behind Timberlake of

course and then ran in the Sleepy Hollow and won in muddy

conditions. Interestingly in a state bred

race coming back, interesting to see this horse step out of the

state race and run against a horse at Drumroll please.

It's actually a Pennsylvania bred but a son of hearts Fun.

I do think drumroll please gets it done here, but I do.

I I'm fascinated by some of the other runners I hear like

Ricallo's coming up for Brittany Russell who by the way another

female trainer just won the training title in Maryland this

year. Two finishes 2 first place

finishes last, two out Maiden special, then an optional

claimer at Laurel Park. The first one going 7 furlongs.

Then they tried it over two turns.

A horse didn't seem to mind it at all of a sudden.

A Maximus mischief obviously in that it's a mischief line as a

Kentucky bred there and so interested to see if that horse

likes the mile at aqueduct if it likes the surface.

Time will tell that that's a tough one to predict if horses

will like those deeper surfaces on on Long Island.

All right, so let's go out West before we head back to Kentucky

the Great to San Dissente. And so Louis, how dare you call

this a pre previous prep. How dare you call this one?

It is also. Louis, how dare you call this a

dirty prep? How dare you call this a

Kentucky Fair listener? Let me tell you that since 2016,

which horses have won this race and what have they gone on to

do? Fantastic question.

Loyalness. In 2016, Nyquist won this race.

I don't need to tell you about Nyquist.

In 2020, a horse named Nadal won this race and it was right

before the world fell apart. OK, that horse came back and won

the Rebel and won the Arkansas Derby.

Zach, do you happen to remember on what date we ran the Arkansas

Derby in 2020? Oh.

We ran the Arkansas Derby on the 1st Saturday in May.

Hey Zach, what race is usually on the 1st Saturday in May?

I'm going to guess the Kentucky Derby.

That's a good guess. This horse won the Rebel and the

Arkansas Derby. The Arkansas Derby on the

traditional Derby date that year.

So look, the horse never ran again after that Arkansas Derby.

I'm not going to hold that against the San Vicente.

I'm going to say that was the Derby for 2020.

That was a Derby prep concert tour, won this race in 2021,

also won the Rebel and then ended up running in the

Preakness. So to me, we do these Road to

the Preakness shows right where we talk about the progression of

distance and they just ran that heft Stakes, which I just

mentioned at 7 Furlongs, right? So we're doing that here leading

into the races next month at at Santa Anita.

When we get into those more developed races, the longer

races getting ready to actually have attached Derby points and

not gagging for the name of that race.

I'm going to look it up real quick, but you know it is it.

It to me, just because of the history of what horses have come

out of it, I think it is. I I think it acts like a a a

prep for a Derby prep. It's a it's a hockey assist, if

you will. It's not the LastPass, it's.

The second LastPass crossing the blue line.

It's it's the the past before or the past.

That's exactly right. Yep, exactly.

And it's of course it's the Robert B Lewis, excuse me,

they'll run that out of Santa Anita and if memory serves,

that's at a mile in the 16th. But you know, essentially

because my sense is because they give the points to the low Sal

Derby a future, excuse me, they don't want to turn around and

give it to the San Vicente as well.

I'm here to tell. I'm here to tell Churchill

Downs. Do both the 10 point races mean

nothing anyway all right so we'll get it.

As far as the final numbers, interesting field of 6 here and

I say interesting because three of the horses are coming off the

turf and really what it shows me Zach is and and and I need to

remind myself whenever I look at these races in Santa Anita the

surface change dirt to turf it's and and vice versa is much more

common in California especially in Southern California than it

is almost anywhere in the country right.

And and you know, the only other thing we see is like at a Golden

Gate that has synthetic and turf, you'll see the horses go

back and forth between those because we think of those as

adjacent type courses, right, Where if the horse is good on

the turf, they'll be comfortable in the synthetic vice versa.

Not always true, but usually true.

And so I I always have to remind myself of that.

But for example, like sliders in this race who just ran in the

Breeders Cup juvenile turf Sprint and at Santa Anita and

finished 9th, but only by three lengths right under under Hector

Barrios. Giving them out to Johnny,

excuse me, to Joel Rosario for John Sadler coming back to Dirt

Man he heads at 24% going turf to dirt.

So is this the kind of horse that beats Baffert on Saturday?

That's really where my brain is at right now.

He's trying to figure out what it is that it's going to take to

beat either Mewth or Pilot Commander when we do get to

Saturday. Now the issue for these other

horses, I think is the following.

Muth shown in the Breeders cub juvenile that he belongs right

fiercest just had the day of his life.

That's right. He won the American pharaoh

before that. Before that he ran in the best

pal and was up the track a little bit behind Prince and

Monica. Prince and Monica was not on

this field and if you would purely on speed figures, I think

that you would land on Muth and not even have a question.

If you go to the history of this race, you would also land of Bob

Baffert. Man I'm interested in pilot

commander here coming out of Del Mar.

Coming out of winning off at first asking over 7 or 6

furlongs. Excuse me, this is sort of

justified. We just watched in my bad living

for example the top two Phillies and two year olds were both

justifies right? And and so this horse actually

breaks his maiden over dirt does by a couple of blanks.

Juan Hernandez was support. So they're going to put Flavia

and Pratt in the irons here. Horse has been working grade at

Santa Anita is totally ready for this.

Not the Muth has it. Muth looks great too.

Don't worry about it, Amanda. Is there a chance a pilot

commander picks him off? Y'all?

That's exactly right. Then he got some other horses in

here that I don't know what to do with.

Voltages in here. For example, coming out of the

Zuma beach, up the track ran in that Del Bar, excuse me,

juvenile turf. That was back in September.

That's at the Grade 3 level. Finishes third there under Ramon

Vasquez. Ramon's obviously not in

Southern California right now. He's in Hot Springs where you

just were running at Oak Lawn. I I just.

I don't if I'm looking around trying to find another winner

that isn't there, it might be slider.

It might be the horse coming out of A5 for a long Sprint that is

going to be the fastest out of the gate.

If that horse can get ahead of Muth and do you and and can they

can they tire Muth out essentially and and I just don't

know. Now the issue is we're seeing

good magics run like crazy too so I'll be staying away from the

same as Senate. It won't lie, because my sense

is if I do feel like there's an an upset brewing here that Muth

is going to run away with it. Maybe.

Yeah maybe by Saturday I'll talk myself into something else.

I am fascinated by pilot commander that's not a justified

if lobbying gets the right trip I that's the kind of horse that

you know good break all those things.

You know the baffled horses coming off of a win are very

very good interested to see that one.

But if I was going to go against Mewth in order I would use the

four pilot commander and the two slider.

Really fascinated by slider and slider can get the seven

furlongs and not just be a 55 and a half six type turf

sprinter there out West. By the way.

I think a cool thing about this race a couple of things.

So Baffert of course has won the most of these.

He's won eleven. OK.

Bill Shoemaker the the jockey won this race 8 times.

Bill Shoemaker made I I love this, this kind of stat.

Bill Shoemaker was put into the Hall of Fame in the 50s and he

won the 1986 Kentucky Derby. What a badass.

That kind of stuff is awesome. So yeah, Bill Shoemaker, just an

absolute baller. There's great pictures of him in

a talks with a bunch of Playboy models.

Like just how, like we're tracing back in the day, man.

Just of course, of course, yes. Just the absolute best.

All right, so let's go back to Kentucky and you're wondering,

hey Louis, why are you including the Turfway Preview stakes,

which is just for three-year olds as a Kentucky Derby prep?

Very similar reasons as we did out of Santa Anita.

This will preview literally getting ready for the Battaglia,

now the road to the Kentucky Derby through Turfway Park we

used to laugh at and then Rich Strike happened, but I think

more. Important two years ago, man

not. And and I actually mean this

more importantly as far as how we we look as we try to figure

out like, you know we do the road to the Preakness, one of

the running jokes on this show. If you want to know who's not

going to win the Preakness pick the Tessio winner.

Right. Like it's just.

You could Every time, every time.

Man, the Jeff Ruby Stakes is not.

It's not that anymore. 2 Phils came out of this race last year

and he was every bit good enough to win the Kentucky Derby last

year on fire. By.

The end, right? Finish a second in the Derby.

That's legit, man. And we so we get a winner.

Enrich strike, which you can call it whatever you want.

I know it's it's fluky now looking back, it's fluky now.

Two fills though shown coming off this surface though for the

Kentucky Derby at least, it is not a hindrance.

And so Turf way preview leads into a race called the Battaglia

Memorial that used to be run as a Sprint as well, but they have

stretched that race out there at least, man might be a mile and a

16th this year. I'll have to look that up.

But they'll run the Battaglia in March at at Turfway and this is

essentially the preview for that.

The Battaglia to do to do my it runs in a mile and a 16th like I

thought, OK, there you go. So they stretch that race out to

an appropriate distance and then of course they'll move it back

1/2 for a long for the Jeff Ruby stakes at the end of that month.

Vote no is in here. The one horse he's going to be

the favorite and I think he's a deserving favorite.

Finished second in the grade 2 bourbon last out in October.

So a bit of a layoff here but Billy Moore does that as well as

anybody goes turf to Synth and a terrible 42% and so he's only

hitting it five of his last 12. Like I said Sweet Saudi J is

listed for this race in the 2 hole here he's actually going to

run at Aqueduct if my guy Dan Ullman is correct.

Joe Scheiste's in here, which is just a great name for anything

and of course broke its name last out set of Air Force Blue

of all things home bred for Rodney Orr is now owned by the

Reynolds family and I assumed to be the foster family and comes

in at 2:00 to 1:00 for Alex Sashard who is a grade one

winning jock rides enough at Turfway to know the place, but

last time out was aboard this horse who won by 12 lengths in a

maiden win. Can the horse repeat that

running 214456 and 1:10? We shall find out.

But that horse was running against very bad competition in

that race and I think getting that horse to run that kind of

race again when that one very clearly came out of nowhere, I'm

just not sure. That might be one that I try to

play against. Let's go Marcus on the outside

here. And this horse is interesting

because it was running in other company in Keeneland as a 2 year

old, it ran 8 times total. This is the first time obviously

running as a three-year old this early in the year. 8 times last

year. Did win three times including

its last race. Two back or excuse me 3 back.

Ran 6 1/2 at Churchill in A50. Claimer won it.

Ran back in an allowance going two turns.

Didn't didn't like it frankly, behind Maina and Dizzy Andy

Excuse me in that race. I was out there for that day in

November and then comes to the to the the synthetic surface at

Turf Lane seems to really like it.

So let's go Mark on the outside of Son of American Freedom.

Might be an interesting play here for the gelding at 5:00 to

1:00 for Adam Biscenza who's actually starting to round into

form. Got back over 10% for last year,

150 races. Interesting to see if that horse

has what it takes You want a long shot.

Didn't hear Zach well. Always, always lose.

Long shot. I got you Joe Schisty right

here. I let's look at CPG that's the

six horse LON Machado. This is coming out of trying.

Oakland Park didn't like it before that random broke his

maiden over firm go at Churchill Downs.

OK what's that firm go at Churchill Downs.

Yeah that was in September when they still had a turf course.

How about that. OK no speed rating for that day

they weren't there was there was an issue with with all those but

did run the five furlongs in 58 and change that that that's

fast. That's fast.

Pretty good. Goes down to 1.

Goes down to 1. Essentially stretches his legs

because does This is a Romo cat trainee did not like it.

Comes back Luan Machado by the way won the right the riding

title at turf way in the fall. I'm going to roll with CPCPG in

this race. The six horse 12 to one Luis

longshot in this race. We'll see if he can get some of

that speed back that he had at Churchill Downs and translate it

to the turf way Preview on the synthetic well, how about that,

Zach? We did.

We got through that. How?

About that we did. So that's 39 minutes of me

talking and I don't even how did I open this show?

What was the terrible, stupid thing that I said?

Oh, I'm at Racing Louie on Twitter.

Yeah, no, I'm not. I'm.

At Racing Louie. I do more radio than I do

racing, so. Do you though, Louie, Do you

well? There you go, You can also.

Check me Out with you 7 micless episodes now 8 I Love You Mike.

On Wednesday. So I talked to Mike yesterday.

No, it's fine today. And he said he listened to my

interview with Steve Kornacki. Do we believe him?

I believe I'm. Going to say that you will

listen to it used it. I used it.

I think he used it to verify or go against some of his own

eclipse boats. Yes, I think that's what he did.

I will say that I was in Kentucky and MM refused to come

see me and he was on that down for the record.

And he he was in Austin to refuse to go see.

You. Yes.

So my love for Mike is waning at this point.

We'll see if it comes back. Not.

Heavy weight here. Oh, Louis.

Let's pay the tab. We'll get out of here.

I'm back at it tomorrow morning, 10:00 here at ESPN Louisville.

I'm on 2 hours a day, Monday through Friday, Eastern Time

here with our affiliate here. You can just ask your smart

speaker to play ESPN 680 and you will get me every weekday Monday

through Friday. Obviously lots of local talk

when we do horses. Pretty darned off.

We will do that tomorrow. I'm also check out our other

podcast. Yeah, I do have another one.

It's called 40 Minutes of POD in honor of Nolan Richardson.

It's obviously about college basketball that releases every

Tuesday. And then you can check this one

out every Thursday. I'm glad we started that College

Basketball 1 because I wasn't doing enough media.

So this is, it's a really nice outline to extra shipment.

It's really great. My wife loves it, all those

things. So, yeah, that's good.

All right. Well, I am Louie Rabaud.

He's producer. Zach, we're going to get out of

here. We're going to pay the tab.

As Mike would say, this has been a Thursday Eclipse Votes Edition

and Fake Derby Prep edition of the Horse Racing Happier.