The Sniper & the Davis | Tampa Bay Downs

Welcome. Dead.

Let's go. Welcome to another edition of a

mic less horse racing. Every time we do it.

Louie Rabo hanging out with you, of course, producer Zach

alongside as well, and we welcome in friend of the show.

His name is Barry. We call him the Urban

Handicapper. We call him the Sniper.

We call him the man that we're just happy to see this week.

Barry, how are you, my friend? Hanging in there, You know good.

The weather's getting better, slowly but surely.

Everything's. Kind of falling into place.

There you go, I was looking. At living in a in a city of

second tier sports teams. I'm just wondering.

It's rough, man. No, no, no respect.

The Magic get no respect. It's unreal, bro.

Well, there you go. All right, Well, Barry Spears

with us. We're going to preview all the

stakes action down in Tampa this weekend, where Barry will be on

site. He will not be on the feed, but

I'm just doing that, so everyone will walk up to Barry and ask

for a picture this weekend. So please.

Do it. I'm down for that. 100% go high

to Barry. He'll be there.

Will not be hard to pick out Barry.

He's the tall guy with the Barry.

You know who Barry is, it's OK to say and then want to give a

shout out to our guys Single Barrel cigars.

Hey. Tampa, shout out to our guys at

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Just it's really a fantastic concept for cigars and if you

are at all into your bourbon, make sure you get some single

barrel cigars as well. That way good guys hanging out

with us whenever we do this show.

I wanted to ask Barry to jump on right away because we did have a

four Derby Derby replays to go through from last weekend.

Obviously one of the winners doesn't get any points.

We can get into that as well. Shameless plug for me.

New show tomorrow, the Kentucky Racing Spotlight will air at

6:00 PM on ESPN Louisville. So if you are able to listen on

your smart speaker or you happen to be in the Louisville market,

you can listen to us on 681057. We will of course podcast that

everywhere, including on the Horse Racing Happy Hour podcast

platform as well. So no matter where you are

you'll be able to check that out.

Want to thank our friends over the Kentucky HBPA for sponsoring

that one? So Barry, let's get into it man,

and I'm going to let Barry kind of navigate us here.

Was there a particular non Nisos performance that you were

impressed with last weekend? No, OK.

And a word. No.

I get it. So let's go to one of those.

His name is Hades. He ran in Gulfstream in the Holy

Bowl. He beat fierceness.

It was supposed to be the grand re entry of fierceness.

We talking to Brian. We talked to Brian Nadeau last

week. He thought it was just going to

be a straight up fierceness. And then and then Hades straight

up cold. Exacta.

Instead, he's just won the damn thing.

Zach, can you go ahead and take us back out of Gulfstream Park

from last weekend? Horses, another two legs, back

to domestic product and dropping back to last.

His dancing room just ahead of him.

Motelo fierceness not out of second gear yet.

They went 3/4 and fierceness. Goes to the first finish line

trying to put Hades away. Gaff Leon getting a response

from domestic product and it's time to go to work for the two

year old champ. Fierceness is off the turn, but

he's not. Yeah, as Hades is dead game and

battling back off cover. Domestic product is charging

hard 16th to go. Fierceness coming up empty Now

Hades has the lead. Domestic product is out of time.

DJ Stables Hades wins the Holy Bowl under.

All right, so one thing I want to mention before we really get

into talking about the actual things that happened in this

race. I think no one does a better job

in horse racing. And then what Pete Aiello just

did. He talked about what was

happening with fierceness during the race, right?

No one does that as well as Pete does.

He's willing to say those things and know he's just right and not

worry about the repercussions. I really appreciate, though,

about his calls Barry a slow race, but look, it's not Paco

Lopez's fault that he was able to rate.

No one caught up with him, right?

Yeah, you know he he got away with some easy that that second

split was kind of easy for him and and it really set up the

race for him to win. I thought honestly Fierceness

actually ran the best race. I know a lot of people won't say

that, but if you look at the replay, he got off slow.

He he didn't really brake well and then got forced out wide.

And it's clear by the way that Johnny V was riding him that he

has to get clear. He doesn't like kickback and

that's what he tried to do and got forced out wide.

He was about four wide the whole way and he kept running.

You know he he was battling on right up to the top of the

stretch and then you know he was still trying and and then faded

behind domestic product who you know looked like he was just

going to blow by both of them at the top of the stretch and he

kind of flattened out. I think that's a little bit of

inexperience but those top three are are are pretty formidable

and I and I want to see them going forward.

But I think, you know my personal opinion, I think

fierceness actually ran the best race.

There's talk of fierceness skipping the Fountain of youth

next month and going straight to the Florida Derby.

Barry, do you think this is a horse that can afford another

month off between races and then be ready for both the Florida

Derby and the Kentucky Derby? Or would you prefer they try the

fountain of youth and then if they win that one, they got the

50 from that, they've got the 30 from the Breeders Cup.

They really wouldn't need anything else to get in that

starting gate for the Kentucky Derby.

Well it's it's hard because you know obviously they they really

don't need too many more points to solidify their spot in the

gate on Derby day. But it seems like this horse

likes to race. You know I I I think, I think

laying him off might not be the best thing but Todd Pletcher's

won a billion races so he's a lot better than me in in that

department. I heard him all the shots, but I

I personally would like to see him run, you know, in succession

because you know having that foundation of of a lot of, you

know, longer races leading up to the Derby is always a plus.

All right, Well, there you go. Yeah, a slow one.

But frankly, all the preps outside of Santa Anita were slow

this last weekend. One of those races, of course,

happened at Oak Lawn Mystic Dan, A touch of an upset.

And I want to talk about the ride for Brian Hernandez Junior

here because I am convinced of the rides this weekend.

This was one of the very, very best.

And so watch Mr. Dan. He's the 10 horse here.

He's on the inside. He's trailing horses and unlike

fierceness, gets a bunch of mud kicked in his face.

Seems to not affect him. Zach, let's go ahead and go out

to Oak Lawn and watch the replay of Mr. Dan winning the Southwest

coming back to the lead. Jess Steel making a big move

after Carbone and Otto the Conqueror, Jess Steel storms to

the front. Jess Steel and Ramon Vasquez

have three Sixteenths to go. Here comes Mystic Dan right up

the rail though with a rail skimming ride by Brian Hernandez

Junior and Mystic Dan is turning it on in a huge effort for the

Kenny Mcpeak. Bard Mystic Dan 5-6 ahead and he

wins. Wrapped up a duck?

Oh, man. All right, by the way, first

thing to say, of course, going back to track announcers.

My man Matt Dinnerman doing the damn thing at Oak Lawn.

He sounds great. He is crushing at big field be

damned. The man is crushing.

Doing a great job. Caught Mystic Dan right when he

made that move on the rail. Man.

Barry, I just thought of all of the rides we saw this past

weekend. Brian Hernandez, Junior getting

up the rail there and knowing that his horse would make that

move. That was about as good as we saw

this weekend. Yeah I mean he he was real you

know obviously savvy enough to know that the the inside was the

best part of the track stuck to the rail and and it got in the

win. About the performance itself I

think Mystic Dan really just kind of freaked on the mud.

I I I don't I'm I'm real skeptical because that race was

just kind of out of nowhere for that horse and and he he seemed

like the way he was running he was like you know just skipping

right over the mud. It looks like he he definitely

appreciates that that wet surface so the jury's still out

on him. I thought Liberal arts actually

kind of ran a really good race for comebacker.

You know he he his progression is just keep it's it just keeps

happening. So he he's one I'm definitely

interested going forward. Yeah, Matt gave us liberal arts

on on ESPN Louisville when I had him on ahead of the Southwest

Stakes. Really thought that he would be

the winner in that race. Even 6:00 to 1:00 or 8:00 to

1:00 in the morning line. I can't remember at this point.

But yeah, no, an interesting horse.

I thought an interesting race, Barry, only because in Derby

terms, at least when we do get to Derby day, it rains on like

48% of derbies, right? And so sometimes you do have to

deal with a muddy or a sealed track or something like that.

Kenny Mcpeek's going to have that horse ready to go as far as

being there, right. So even if he's first alternate,

second alternate or something like that, as horses start to

scratch out of the Kentucky Derby, he might be the 22 that

gets in the race and is actually interesting.

So you know, I'm with you on this one.

I think it's a little bit more of letting the cake bake, if you

will, something like that, where let's see a couple more races

out of this horse. It's so hard sometimes with guys

like Mcpeak. Mcpeak to me is the Doug O'Neill

of anything east of the Mississippi River.

It's just kind of like, yeah, sure, he could start.

Sure, let's throw him in that race.

That sounds great. What's the surface?

I don't really care. Let's just try it out.

So. You know, the good thing is,

yeah, go ahead. I was going to say the good

thing is with Kenny, he runs his horses.

He shy away from spots. He he runs them.

But the bad part is it's hard to predict when they're going to

run. Well, correct.

Yeah. He's good for the game because

he runs the damn horses, and it's tough for the better

because the 1213% isn't an indictment on his training.

It's that he's gonna take. Chances, right.

That's exactly right. So it's it's, it's interesting

to watch different trainers take those different tacks and he

certainly won. We appreciate because like you

said, runs the horses. That's that's all we can really

ask of our trainers in this game.

Let's head up to Long Island. We did talk.

I want to give a shout to our guy.

Matthew DeSantis up there with Naira was a really great guest.

He's been on a couple Times Now on the radio show with me.

He's been really great, really generous with his Friday

mornings with me and was you know this was a Withers that we

didn't quite know what to do and in fact we didn't know what to

do because Uncle Heavy won this race.

Chris Griffin on the call up at Aqueduct.

Zack, if you could go ahead and pull up that replay for us, he

is all it is not cutting into the margin light line is

starting a rally here for Manny. Franco is going to be a touch

wide. But the front two have not come

back to the field. And El Grandeo is back in front.

It's El Grandeo who kicks away. Kane continues to chase.

Uncle Heavy is trying to commence or rally is making

hardware light line and deposition on the grandstand

side. But El Grande O is still there.

El Grande O. Here comes a run from Uncle

Heavy and Uncle Heavy in between horses deposition on the far

outside. Light light right there.

El Grande O needs the wire. Uncle Heavy Late it's a photo

finish. Oh, there's two noses on the

line. Oh.

Damn. It's a great race.

It really was. It's a fantastic finish.

Chris really graduate, really grabbing on to that.

By the way. Naira has a fantastic YouTube

page if you ever want to go back and watch any of their replays

and stuff. It is like the easiest one to

navigate for sure. So thanks to all the folks for

their their putting their races up on YouTube for us to be able

to talk about on this show. You know that it's essentially

the second race in a row, Barry, where we heard the race color

got to kind of get caught off guard.

They thought they knew. The guy says, oh, they haven't

been caught by the pack. And then, you know, Uncle Heavy

gets that extra whatever in the stretch there.

I don't know what to make of this race.

The splits are incredibly slow, Barry, but I also don't hold it

against horses. If that deep sandy, you know,

dirt thing on Long Island, either at Belmont or at Aqueduct

slows them down a little bit, that really doesn't bother me.

What did you see in this race? Did you see a Derby contender?

Because look, we're talking about 1/4 century now that we

haven't had a winner come out of the Wood Memorial.

Yeah, it's tough because when they changed the surface and and

got rid of the inner dirt, they really kind of they didn't

winterize the track, they just basically added more.

Right, more tracker to the track.

Yeah, and it and it's like quicksand when it gets wet.

And you know Uncle Heavy really ran good.

I'm just curious to see how horses leave aqueduct.

And run. Somewhere else and that'll

probably be the the tell tale sign of of what's going to

happen but I mean the the top two were really good and and the

rest of them didn't really show up but it was a wet track so I I

can't really say you know Oh well we can just toss this one

or that one because sometimes they just don't like it.

I've I've seen horses, you know, in the past performances now

that are coming back from like the Remsen and things like that.

And you know, they just had a bad race and they're they're

probably going to run better. So we'll see.

This is a fun one. This is a Pennsylvania Bread.

The owner has had four starts, ever pops up, wins the Withers,

and has a horse. A serious contender on the New

York route to the Kentucky Derby.

Got to feel good for the connections there.

Michael Sanchez, of course. And they're out of the Reed Barn

there up on Long Island. Look, one of those stories

that's just easy to root for, so frankly, out of the the Naira

path to the Kentucky Derby. Hate me?

Whatever. I'm rooting for Uncle Heavy here

also, just so we can play a lot of Heavy D songs going forward.

Like, I know I was about to say that.

We like Heavy D, Yes. I think it's like heavy.

D Anytime we see, Look, if somebody out there wants to make

a music video with Uncle Heavy running around to Heavy D music,

I'm not opposed to it. So just figure it out, people

that'd be really. Great.

I think I got a water follower named Uncle Heavy.

DI like that a lot. Yeah, that's pretty good.

Yeah, that's pretty good. I agree.

That's pretty good. All right.

So let's let's talk about it Barry.

Let's just do the the, you know, it's not even an elephant in a

room in the room anymore. The Baffert thing with Churchill

Downs and not being you know eligible for a third straight

Derby here, Nicos. I mean look you and I watch a

ton of horse racing. That's as good a stretch out as

you're going to see from a three-year old.

I mean that just is it's off the charts great.

The horse looked totally comfortable new seemed like he

had done it 100 times. It's I'm Barry.

I'm I'm a guy where I'm just disappointed that we won't have

the very best collection of three-year olds that we can for

this race. And I I kind of look, I I think,

I I think I what's the word here.

I think I think for this Churchill is trying in their

mind they're protecting the 150, the Derby 150 thing by not

having Baffert there. What I don't understand is

Barry. I was there a couple of years

ago and Bafford agreed to have all of his horses blood tested

before the Preakness Stakes. Why are we not doing that for

the Kentucky Derby with just everybody and and moving on and

trying to figure out a way to get Bafford back in these races?

That's a hell of a question because that would that would

solve some of this issue. I I think at this point it's

kind of petty on both sides because he was still suing them

before, you know a couple of weeks ago or a week ago and I

think that would that had a lot to do with why they wanted to

extend the the the suspension. And as a fan I don't like seeing

Baffert out as a better I do because I think it kind of

creates some chaos within the race and you see that the horses

so far everybody's kind of evenly matched.

Not that they're not evenly matched when you know come Derby

day but even more so now they all kind of look the same.

Nicos was was the one that kind of separated himself and he's

not going to be in it. But but also don't you feel

like, like some of these owners and trainers have to feel like I

don't get a shot at the king? Like, hey, you know, I you can

put a star next to my Kentucky Derby or or my race because Bob

Baffert can't run in it and he might have had a winning horse.

I mean it. They get money and all this

stuff too, but in the back of your head, you know.

I think owners just want to win the Kentucky Derby, to answer

your question, Zach, But there there is absolutely value in

beating the best horses too, right?

I mean, there are different levels of Derby winners there,

just like there are different levels of Hall of Farmers and

different sports, those kinds of things.

I I'm with you Zach, on that point.

But I do think, I think if if you went to an owner and said

you can win the Kentucky Derby, but Baffert Saw could be in it,

they'd say what was that second part 'cause I don't care about

it. I think.

I think that's about what that that's what they would say.

But no, let's watch this Nicos replay because folks, this is

what it's supposed to look like under Flavi and Pratt here.

Frank Miramani on the call. With a quarter of a mile to go

has LED throughout Nicos let loose with a huge bit on the

outside, though at the three sixteenths Nicos blows by the

competition and turns it on. Wind me up in a battle for

second with Scatify Nicos passing the two turn test

beautifully geared down to stroll in by 7 lengths.

That horse is walking that. Horse.

Oh, they were his walking. He got around that corner.

They wrapped him up quick for sure.

It's exactly what they're supposed to look like.

You know, Barry, I mean, I I'm interested because some

something very significant is happening this year.

Next year, which is the Belmont Stakes is being run at 10

furlongs instead of 12. And it's being run at Saratoga

where you can just leave your best 3 year old and he can run

in all of the best races during the summer because all of them

are at Saratoga for three-year olds especially.

I think some of the ownership group with with Baffert decided

not to move this year because they see the Preakness 3 weeks

off to a Belmont at Saratoga over 10 furlongs as something

their horses can probably do. Plus, it's a $3,000,000 race up

there at Saratoga. Do you agree with my assessment

there or am I reading too much into it?

Nope, absolutely. I feel the same way is is, you

know, the Belmont's going to be the prize this year because.

I agree. Everybody's going to be there,

Baffert's going to be there and you know, you get the new

shooters that that skip the Preakness and all that it it

might end up being the best race out of them all depending.

I mean there, I guess there's always the possibility we we

could be going for a Triple Crown, but we'll see.

I mean, we got to let it play out, but it's sure going to be

fun to watch, I know that. Man, oh man.

Well, there you go. I, I I mean the nice host.

That's as good a stretch out as you've ever seen.

Yes. Oh yeah, yeah.

I mean he's very professional. He's he's only, you know, run a

couple races. So, you know, you don't expect a

horse to look that good this early.

I I mean, the field wasn't that great.

It was a bunch of tomato cans, but he looked really good doing

it. Yeah, I I'm less interested in

the in winding UPS race there and more interested actually in

scatify. I wonder if they couldn't turn

that horse into some kind of seven furlonger, Maybe one turn.

One Turner. Yeah, he really looks like

that's me. I don't think he's a six for a

long horse. I don't think he's like 5 1/2 on

the turf, but I think if you can get him more of those like 7 for

a long type race or something like that, maybe even 6 1/2 he

could be pretty effective there. I I actually agree with you.

I. Would think he would be a

monster if he cuts. Back if you had a Derby top like

horse, do you even have one right now Barry 'cause I don't

it's. Tough.

Yeah. I I mean, you haven't seen, you

know, haven't seen many horses, to be honest.

And and you know, one could come out of nowhere if if you had to

put a gun to my head. I'd say fierceness is still the

top dog right now Despite that last one because he probably

wasn't even already, you know, cranked up all the way to win

and and they got bigger things. You want them to peek in May and

not February. Well, there you go.

All right, well, let's get to the handicapping section of our

show here. Barry's favorite part, and I'm

not going to lie, also my favorite part.

How about that? We'll go down to Tampa for this

one. It is.

It is Sam F Davis day down there.

Wanted to give a shout out again our buddies at single Barrel

cigar, Single Barrel cigarco.com.

The website is up. How about that?

Go check them out. Picture of cigars ahead of any

tamper race. And of course any race around

the country. They'll ship them straight to

your house. Single Barrel Cigar co.com.

Go check them out there. Barry Davis Day Man, this is a

fun 1. The Suncoast, the Minaret.

There's some nice the Pelican. There's some nice steaks on this

car. Yeah.

You usually get kind of a little combination of horses that are

just starting their year or you know trying to get into it for

bigger things. And and you know for from a

betting perspective it makes it interesting because this is the

time that you could probably beat some some big favourites.

And I think there there is a little bit of that going on in

this sequence on Saturday. Yeah, there are numerous horses

at 8:10 to 1:00 kind of numbers that I really like on this card.

And so we'll get into that. Now, Barry, let's head to race

five. It is the Suncoast.

This is a prep for the Kentucky Oaks.

They're going to mile 70 on the dirt there, obviously for

three-year old Phillies. It's $150,000 in this one.

Look, I think you do have a little bit of a dilemma here in

that power squeeze a second off the layoff here.

She looked really good at Gulfstream Park last time.

Barry is a believer in distance, not in turns.

So she's going two turns here, but it's not much more distance

than she did at Gulfstream last night.

And of course, you have live talk coming out of that really

nice run in the demoiselle before that.

Of course, in the juvenile Phillies.

Barry, more often we see the Phillies carry from 2:00 to 3:00

than we do the Colts. Will you lean on the class of

life talk, or do you like the current form of a power squeeze?

Or are you looking somewhere else?

I I I think live talk really is is the standout like like the

morning line has her, but there there's some knocks there.

I mean the horse really hasn't run all that great up until that

last race and went to the lead that day, which she hadn't done

before. If they employ that strategy, I

think they'll be fine. If they decide to rate they

might be in trouble because the the closers are a lot faster

than her finishing. Even the one who who just is a

maiden breaker. It's probably a little bit

quicker than what it appears on paper.

Power Squeeze is is kind of a closer and the outside horse was

kind of interesting to me in in Gorgeous Girl who's also

probably be a a stalker type so that just leads life talk to go

to the lead which I hope and think they would do.

Managed mischief is probably going to cause a little trouble

but if that one goes to the lead I I don't think they'll have a

problem. Life talk looks like a stand

out. Yeah, and and going the distance

here we have a couple of horses who have done it already.

You mentioned one who could ask for MO the one horse on the

inside here Tyler, For Tyler and for and for Suge.

I, I'm with you on the on the class of life talk.

Do you think the power squeeze, I mean Santino here hit the

board kind of horse or do you is this one you would fade in in

those kinds of plays? Pretty dressed up off of that

perfect trip win last time. So I think that number or you

know, the speed figure even in the third graph might be a

little bit inflated just based on that trip.

I mean it was, if you look at that race, it couldn't have set

up any better for that horse and you know, she obviously took

advantage of it. If she gets that same situation

on Saturday, she's going to be ultra tough.

But I don't know how how that develops because there's there's

really only one speed horse 1 1/2 and unless they just go, you

know, crazy in the first quarter, I really don't see

Power Squeeze getting a good trip.

And and five to two seems like a really big underlay.

OK, well there you go. Reminder to at Tampa, the pick

threes, the Daily Double S, the pick fours are all 18% Takeout

really playable game races here. Barry, this starts a middle pick

four. Would you single life talk here?

Yes, I would. OK, there you go.

All right, we'll move on to the next race then.

It is an an allowance optional claimer.

Easy for me to say. They go over to the turf for

this one. It's at a mile for three-year

old Phillies. The claim price here is $75,000.

Fifty 3000 is the purse here. I thought a couple of

interesting entries here as well.

Is there an option outside of the favorites here?

That nine of course, or the eight of course is Sputnik.

You'll see some money come in on sacred image as part of a Chad

Brown in a combination with Sami Camacho, who is one of the very

best riders at Tampa. Then Bourbon briefs under for

Riley Mott and under Junior Alvarado here also entered down

at Gulfstream on Sunday. Outside of those three, is there

a player or are those the ones you think you'll be laying on

here? I I think the two horse Destiny

star has some upside showed some potential early on back when

when she broke her maiden at when she ran in her first race

at Saratoga and you know kind of got away from it was on the dirt

then got back to the turf and you can see she improved.

I think there's still room to improve there and stretching out

might be the the the answer to that.

I mean, I have a declaration of war.

Mayor. Catholic Boy.

Catholic. Boy, yeah.

I don't think distance will be too too much of a problem and

then that one's going to be an interesting price too.

I I not really sure what to make of Sputnik.

You know coming off on the synthetic to the turf.

It's it's it's a tricky read sometimes.

Sometimes horses take to the synthetic, which is kind of

counterintuitive, but they do. And Sacred Image is another one

that didn't run a really particularly fast race first

time out, but got the job done at Tampa, which is a plus.

So they're going to be probably formidable foes in this race.

Not too sure about Bourbon Breeze either.

First time on the turf one seems seems to be a kind of a stretch.

And not even sure that horse will actually run in that race

because it's entered in another on Sunday at Gulfstream, so it

might not make the trip. So if that happens, then I, I, I

think Destiny Star in in you know, the odd horse is Camila T

You don't really know what to do with that horse because ran

great going five first time out and hasn't shown up since.

So yeah. Yeah, maybe the first lay six

will help there, Juan. Juan, Avila's very, very good

off this type of layoff as well. Riley, by the way, with Firsters

on the turf, is over his last 26.

And so that horse, I'm guessing will stay.

Gulf Stream? Most likely.

Most likely. Alright, let's move on to

another stakes. Here it is.

Race 7. Excuse me, The metarat here 6

for longer for Phillies and mares foreign up on the dirt.

All the stakes will be on the dirt on Saturday at Tampa.

50,000 like I said in the Kitty here.

You know, five and eight to me are interesting in here.

Dreaming of snow coming coming out of a win last time at Tampa

at 7. Furlongs in an optional claimer

runs in the rampart down to Gulfstream at a mile behind Mary

Kwai. Contrary.

I don't hold that against the horse there, but did win three

of her six races at Tampa before that.

Well, AIMA to me is really interesting here, Barry, because

the connections with Kathleen O'Connell, she just doesn't win

stakes races for some reason. For whatever it is, man, she is

absolute royalty at Tampa. I think her her at some point

she's going to breakthrough in one of these races.

This horse was right there in that optional claimer that I

mentioned last time out and I I think her numbers sort of make

sense here. Where would you lean, though, in

the minaret stakes? Yeah this is a tough race

because you know at first glance it looks like there's a lot of

speed in this race and and when you dig a little deeper it

really isn't that much and I think Kathleen is is holding a

really good hand. But I I think dreaming of snow

might get the set up and and probably a a a decent price on

the cut back from the rampart back in December 30th.

Yeah, this, this horse likes this distance, likes this track.

Also, you can see that last bullet on January 24th.

That was pretty good. Six or one out of 36 that day.

But the one before that was 6 out of 71, training well into

this race. But.

Andy gets Sammy and Sammy's about as good at Tampa as

anyone. Yeah.

And I I think they really put Poima in here to to kind of set

the table for Dream Concert. And in in doing that it may help

a horse like Dream of Snow because Dream in the Snow and

Dream Concert will probably want the same kind of trip you know

and and that's that's assuming that Lady Radler doesn't want to

go to the lead but she's won on the lead prior.

But I she just doesn't seem fast enough.

So this this pace scenario seems a little bit tricky because I

don't think it's as fast as what it might look initially on

paper. And there's a there's even a

situation where Poima runs off. Right.

Nobody runs with her and and and she just goes.

So I I I I look at the board for some clues on this one.

Who do you are we overlooking, Shy town lady here I feel like.

Closest man, I I can't do it. It's a.

Winner of the test, and I mean just at that price, could you do

it? No, just it's it's hard because

you know, this source is going to be a dead closer in a race

that might not have a whole bunch of speed.

I mean if it heats up up front, shy town lady's going to be

coming like a freight train. But it it's just all about the

set up. All right.

Well, there you go. We'll move on to Race 8, the

Pelican, that's $100,000. Race 6 for longer.

It is the open edition of the six.

Furlong Sprint on the on the dirt here excuse me Hunter K in

the Kitty here. Some interesting horses in this

as well. I thought you might be able to

get some value here. Obviously Sebelius is in here.

You've got Nakatomi in here man. I really like the five here.

Barry in mish under Sammy Camacho for Saffy.

Joseph running in some lower level races at Tampa.

But if that horse can turn in the race that it ran last time

at Tampa, I think he can win here. 7 year old horse still

knocking around 1/4 races last year has been off since right

before Christmas. So a little bit of a freshening

here, which is a terrific stat out of the Joseph barn.

He's 5 for 13 at this meet and he and Sammy Camacho were six

for their last, or excuse me 5 for their last nine together at

Tampa. I love that 12:50 number.

If you're trying to beat the big boys here, I think Mitch is the

horse to use. Are you going to try to beat the

big boys, Barry? Oh, of course.

Of course. I mean you know it's funny

though I I thought the morning line was a little off because I

would think Sibelius is going to be favored and you know just

because of the way the track plays and and so on.

You know it's going to be hard for Nakatomi to to to close into

this and I mean obviously talented enough to do it, but

doesn't really win all that much, right.

I I mean, you know and and I think a lot of that is running

style and I'm also not convinced that six furlongs is the best

distance for that horse either. You know he's one for seven at

the distance, closes every time but just doesn't get there.

I I think, you know seven, 6, 1/2 maybe even like if there was

the old distance the seven and a half for a long race would be

perfect for Nakatomi. That being said, I I think

little Victoria might stand a good chance.

You see that huge number, it was a perfect trip win on in the mud

at at Aqueduct in the time. Yep.

And then they they jumped up in competition and got thumped and

then they laid the horse off. And I think this is, you know,

this is what is a drop in class and being with this class of

horse, I mean Sibelius is kind of on the verge of being a a

really good grade one horse but just doesn't do it consistently.

But I think little Victoria can get the trip here because

there's a, there's a you know a lot of ways that this pace could

heat up and has some class which a lot of these really don't.

They're they're kind of putting around in optional claimers.

Nakatomi you know is obviously facing the, the grade ones and

grade twos, but everybody else is kind of on the edge you know

of being a good horse. That being said, I think this is

a really competitive race and honestly if Sibelius is 3 to one

at post time, I I think my I might dump every cent I have on

them. There you go.

I'm. I'm actually also interested in

Super Ocho here. Chipping in, most recently from

Oakland, has. Razor sharp.

That horse is sharp right now. He's in very good form, ran

really well in the mud, last out an optional clamor there at

Oakland after running in the Thanksgiving Classic at

Fairgrounds. And then for that, of course it

Delta Downs in a lots, which he won under Vicente Del Sid.

But yeah, I I'm with you. This is a race that either we're

just going to look back and go Oh yeah, right, Sibelius or or

someone's actually just going to jump up and make us some money

in this race. Either way, I'm sure it'll be a

fun one. Let's go ahead.

We'll get to the Davis. Now it is a race 10 on the card,

quarter million bucks here, mile on a 16th.

It will help toward some Derby points.

Pretty serious Derby points frankly in this one.

And so look, this is an interesting one.

I think if you were looking at this race, Barry, and let's

let's just say we thought this was an allowance for three-year

olds, I think if you looked at it, you would say change of

command is in good form. He's improving.

That's the horse to play in this race.

Where would you lean in this race?

Because we're early in this three-year old season and so

far, good freaking luck figuring out who's going to win one of

these races. Yeah it seems too good to be

true with you know you know he's he's been improving but you know

I I I just don't see that that horse can get the kind of trip

he needs to to win this race there.

There's other contentious horses that that will be up front kind

of pushing the pace and I I mean not that they that I've haven't

seen connections kind of fiddle around with tactics in in races

like this but I mean it just it wouldn't make any sense to take

that away from the horse who's who's clearly got a weapon in

his speed and in his placement early.

I'm I'm trying to look to throw one downfield.

I thought tireless look pretty good in that race that Joe Bravo

wrote him last time for Pletcher and actually might be a little

bit better than Agate Rd. at this point.

And I know that sounds a little crazy, but on the dirt I should

say. Dirt.

Yeah, right. So that that's the great

equalizer here. I I don't really want any part

of Agate Rd. on the dirt is is dirt races.

One and only dirt race wasn't that good.

Not that this field is that great, but yeah a a hard pass on

a horse is going to be a short price on the dirt.

Basically for the first time in this kind of competition I

thought Fulmaneo the 11 is is 1 on the improve.

I like the Comebacker race and in those races.

You. Know those turf races were

pretty good. Those are classy races and and

and Agate Rd. was in one of them and the Comebacker on January

14th was was a lot better than it looked.

I think the horse was a lot farther back than they really

wanted to be. But I think that helps this

horse, the experience, you know he's got 4 you know, mile or

over races under his belt, which it has to mean something at this

point. So I'll give that one a shot at

at 15 to 1. Yeah, out of that same race with

Fulmaneo was crazy Mason who's in this race as well.

The four horse for 12:50, Michael Sanchez out of the Sacco

barn. And that one's really

interesting to me Barry, because they run him in that in the the

inaugural of course at the beginning of December for two

year olds and finishes you know second does a lot of closing in

that race frankly they stretch them back out goal mile and 40

last out in that optional claimer at Tampa and I thought

he he did the work that in a race like this, especially early

in the three-year old season when these horses aren't used to

raiding yet, they go out a little too hot.

He's the kind of closer that could pick this race off.

And so that's another one, Another option, a double digit

type of horse that I think could be really interesting here.

Do you think they're just kind of trying to figure out what to

do with the Got road or do you think it's more hey it's it's

Derby season, if he happens to run well in the Davis, then we

try to figure something else out.

That's what it feels like to me is we're going to experiment and

see if he takes to it because they, I think they felt that he,

he got better and bigger over, you know, his layoff from

November to January. So they're like, all right, he's

doing well, let's give him a shot.

You know, betting wise, not a not a good thing for me.

I I I wouldn't take a horse like this at a short price.

They could beat me all day. I'll tell you, a horse that's

not going to be 5 to one at race time is copper tax.

That there's no way that horse is getting enough money to go 5

to 1. I'm fascinated by the route that

that horse took here because they ran that horse like crazy

between the 1st of December and the 2nd of December, ran a bunch

of races, won a bunch, frankly doing a lot of different things.

They tried him in the Remsen essentially on three weeks under

Kendrick. Just didn't have it that day.

That was the famous money race between Door Knock and Sierra

Leone. And I say famous because we've

been waiting for another famous on this Derby trail that's not

as famous as we've had. We got really excited about that

one and then we haven't seen the horses since, of course.

But yeah, interested in it. Just sort of what Gary Capuano

was trying to do with this horse.

I do think if you were going to try this horse in a Derby prep,

this is where to do it. And then if it doesn't work,

Zach will tell you and I'm sure you've seen it on the show.

We do a Road to the Preakness shows.

That's the kind of horse I could see.

They aim for the Tessio if he doesn't work out.

His home team. Exactly right.

Send it back to Laurel, go pick off a bunch of races, get a free

pass to the Preakness and I think that copper tax could be

that horse I'll be interested to see.

Well, obviously won't be in February, maybe back in in next

in March if we see him back at Laurel Park.

If it doesn't work out of the Davis on Saturday.

All right, man. Well, I think, I think that's

it. You got to pick for the last

race. I guess we could do that.

Yeah, we can. We can fire it up real quick.

I mean, royal interest is royalty interest.

Excuse me, He's going to get a bunch of money here.

And it's it's fun to see, man, does anybody go to more tracks

than Vincent Chemenau? I mean, that guy is just.

He rides everywhere. Everywhere.

I love it. If there's a grass course

somewhere, the man will be there.

That's essentially how it works. He's down there for Chad Brown

horse. Broken's Maiden at Tampa went up

north to Penn to run in the Pen Oaks $150,000 race on the turf

there. Comes back in this spot in the

allowance to close this card. By the way the late all of the

sequences. This is an awesome card in

Tampa. Nice job sprinkling in maidens

in the middle of I think Barry and I have this in common which

is unusual for us. We like, we don't like the All

Stakes sequence is fine on like a Belmont day or a Derby day or

something. But I'm like a Sam F Davis day.

Sprinkle in an allowance, give us a little maiden special,

right? Yeah.

Doesn't mix it up. Yeah, that's that's where the

value is. You know, a lot of times at

Tampa there's always at least one or two like inexplicable

races where it's like, how did this horse win and it and it

blows up the pick fives and you know, everything skyrockets off

that one race. So I'm I'm hoping that does

happen on Saturday and I hope I'm.

In the right spot. There you go.

Who is the play against at Tampa this weekend, Barry, if you want

to make money, you think, is it in?

Is it life talk in the Sun Coast.

If you wanted to really blow up a ticket, that's.

That's a tough task, Yeah, that that's that's playing hero ball,

if you can beat that. OK, did we say the same thing

about fierceness last week? Yes, we did.

OK, I'm just, I'm not trying to play what about ISM with you?

I'm just saying, if you want to make money on this, if you want

to make money on that part of the card, you're going to have

to beat her, right? I mean that's.

Oh, absolutely. Yeah.

If you beat her, you're you're you're definitely lining your

pockets there. You go, Zach, you were going to

ask a question. I'm sorry.

Buddy, I was going to say I know Louis know probably knows the

answer to this one, but Barry, how many Tessio winners won the

Preakness? Why are we doing that right now?

Poor Barry. Come on, Barry.

Guess my guess would be 3. 1. 1. 1983 deputed testimony.

Oh, wow. I was.

I was gonna. I was torn between 1:00 and

3:00, and I was. Like here.

Well that's that. Did you actually look that up

Zach or we just go in on that one being the one that the last

one that happened? I knew that.

I knew that from last year when we did Road to the Preakness, we

asked who did we ask? I think we asked Ilman.

Yeah, probably. Dan, my man.

One of my favorite, yeah, one of my favorite things to say on

this show is the Federico Tessio.

Great predictor of who won't win the Preakness.

Hey, there's value in that, man. There's value in knowing who's

not going to win a race. Too.

That's true. Yeah, that is true.

And sometimes the toss matters just as much as the include His

name is Barry Spears. He's the urban handicapper on

Twitter, the sniper, all the good things.

Go take a picture with him on Saturday and tell him.

Yeah. Come out, say hi.

I'm going to be there with you. Hey, Barry, I got to say a

personal note. Man, it is.

It's good to have you back on all of us.

We're praying for you. I'm glad that you seem you seem

great. You seem like you're in great

spirit. All the people.

Are you feeling good? Thank you.

I I appreciate the thoughts and prayers and everything and the

support has been excellent. Doing good, you know, the, you

know, just kind of getting used to things after that because,

you know, your life changes. You know, I I went from taking

no medication to taking like six or seven a day.

So things like that, you know, timing with everything.

I got alarms on my phone every time I need to take medicine,

things like that. But you know, getting back to

normal, it's only been a couple months, but you know, trying to

get out and about and do. Things so.

Yeah, feel good. Everything.

'S good. Do you have a?

Do you have a Super Bowl pick? Yeah, neither.

No, I I I can't. That's a good that is a good

answer I. Don't like either of those

teams? The.

Detroit Lions, people the. Detroit Lions.

That's that was the right answer.

I I was pulling for that man. I wish they would have won.

So my my favorite thing to say is that the only thing that

separates Brock Purdy from Tom Brady is Super Bowl wins.

They have the same exact stats for the years that Purdy has

been playing. Oh, wow.

How about that? Yeah.

So he didn't start winning Super Bowls, but KC did beat the best

team in the NFL. So you know there's.

That yeah, I'll, I'll tell you, man, there is.

I mean, if if you talk about like best 3-4 coaches in the

league, two of them are in the Super Bowl.

So at least we got that this year.

Yeah, at least. That that part of KC beat the

Dolphins, the best team in the in the world.

We're talking about the Ravens, Barry.

The Raven, the geekiest man possible got the Dolphin side

coaching job and gives guys like me hope that I can accomplish

something with my life. So they you know.

That's actually the platform that Louis's trying to jump

toward. He he started, you know, podcast

radio. He's hoping to get to NFL coach

by the end of his his career. Obviously, that's exactly right.

That's why I live in Kentucky. Yeah, for those NFL jobs.

All right, boys. I appreciate it very much.

By the way, if you're not listening, I I almost never

mentioned when Barry comes on going in circles on Monday

podcast drops, The Big Monday Podcast with him and Mr. Simon.

Make sure you go check that out. It's a very, very good show,

very different from this one. But the recap shows I absolutely

adore and they do as good a job as anyone in our industry.

So Barry, we will talk to you next time, my friend.

All right. Thank you so much for having a

great time on the track on Saturday.

I'll. Be in turf.

Do you have a Turfway strategy? Yeah, closers.

The longest shot on the board, The longest closer.

Longest closer. There you go.

I will shoot for that, man. Appreciate it very much.

All right, Talk to you very soon.

All right, Zach, Let's wrap this one up, buddy.

Again, shout out to our guys. Single.

Barrel single. Barrel down there in Ybor City.

Single Barrel. Cigarco dot com all over the

socials. Catch them down there best Nick

and the guys down there, just the best.

So make sure you check them out for all those Smokey Smokey

needs. Thanks to Eddie C hanging out

with us tonight. Good stuff out of Eddie.

We appreciate him very much while hanging out and watching

the show tonight. You can always catch us live on

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And anytime you want to watch the replay of this, it's on

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That's right. And make sure you get in

tomorrow. Kentucky Racing spotlight with

Louis Rebaux, whoever. That.

Is and get in on that 6:00 tomorrow on ESPN Louisville.

You can stream that anywhere in the world.

Just ask your smart speaker to play ESPN Louisville and you

will get me around 6:00. And of course, we'll release it

on this podcast platform as well also.

Danisle, which is way better than Louis I.

Did interview Danis? Feel free from Turfway Park will

join us as well on that. Episode tomorrow.

I will do a recap of the four Derby preps from this past

weekend as well probably steal some notes from Barry for that

one. All right.

Alongside producer Zach, my name is Louis Robot.

Thanks for joining us here on the Horse Racing Happy Hour.

We'll be back next week. Our guest will be Steve

Kornacki, ahead of the Risen star at Fairgrounds.

I don't know why Steve Kornacki likes this show, but he does and

so we will talk to him. It's his.

It's his getaway from politics in 20.

That's exactly right. So there you go.

I'm not Joe Biden, and he's not Donald Trump.

Exactly. None of us care like that's the

point. Awesome.

All right. Thank you, Zach.

Go and play that music and we will get out of here.