The Sniper Returns | Tampa Bay Derby Weekend

All right people, Welcome in America's least.

What is it least? Serious horse racing podcast

Horse Racing Happy Hour Hanging out with you, Louis Rebel.

We got producer Zach and of course our guy.

The point that way over there, Barry Spears, how about that,

the urban handicap or the sniper, whatever you call him,

we call him Barry around here. Barry, how are you man?

Hanging in there, man, you know, it's it's the least serious, but

it's the most serious by being the least serious.

See. There you go.

All right. How?

About that, yeah, we don't. We, we take the sport seriously.

We just don't take ourselves seriously.

That's essentially what we try to do is.

There you go. All right, well, Barry Spears

with us, man. He's got that beautiful

background there in Daytona. He is our correspondent for all

things Tampa, so we always call him on these weekends, of

course, Tampa Bay Derby this weekend and their top top race

actually is this weekend in the Hillsborough as well.

So we'll talk about all those races.

Fun. I like how they move their cards

around. There's multiple pick fives to

try out a pick six. They've got a couple different

pick four options. Takeout options at Tampa, very,

very favorable to the player as well.

So we'll get into all of that in the second segment.

We'll start though, Barry, with the replays and kind of get into

what we're thinking about this Kentucky Derby melange of horses

reported. So trying to figure out who's

who here. But door knock keeps the trend

going from Sierra Leone a couple of weeks ago in Louisiana, comes

off the bench and wins his prep down there in the Fountain of

Youth in Miami. So he joins Hades as winners of

preps in Florida leading into the Kentucky Derby.

Of course, the Florida Derby is the number one predictor for

winners of the Kentucky Derby. Second of course Santa Anita

Derby and then third is the Wood Memorial.

Those 3 historically our best predictors.

The Wood Memorial hasn't been that great for the last quarter

century. So we lead into tracks like

Gulfstream sending us the very best horses for that first

Saturday. May Zach, do we have a door

knocks performance there down the stretch.

Pete Aiello, Julie Saez on big favorite door knock.

He's inside 1/4 of a mile from home and in front.

Ledambro fighting as hard as he can, trying to stick with them

Three back to Frankie's empire and they're at the top of the

stretch. It's Dornak asked to finish the

job at the inside, Ledambro running his heart out.

But he's back to second as Dornak is too much horse.

Dornak clear with a 16th to go. The Fountain of Youth Stakes

goes to Dornak. Dornak passes man.

So Dom bro. Dude, I I feel bad for that

horse because I think he's just too little to do anything.

You know what I mean? Like I say that now.

I just. I just totally jinxed myself.

He's going to win every race he ever runs again.

By the way I want to give a shout out before we get into

Tampa. Our boys at Single Barrel Cigars

hanging out with us. Ybor City doing the work on

these shows and so make sure you get in there.

Check them out all over the Tampa area.

So if you're heading to the track this weekend they've got

you covered. Check them out.

Single Barrel cigar co.com as well.

Got you covered on there. All the socials and all those

things door knock off the bench. Barry, I've made the case the

last couple weeks on this show. A couple years ago we had that

Kentucky Jockey Club Smile Happy Classic Causeway.

We got quite a barrio out of that race.

Any chance we look at this Remsen the same way 'cause I

think there's a chance we do. Yeah.

Which is surprising because you know, the last few years the the

surface and the fields at Aqueduct have been tough.

You know, I think that the the only horse that really came out

of that race, the Wooden Memorial a couple years back was

with Bourbonic. The one that he won was Dynamic

one. He's still around, but everybody

else is kind of gone. But the track at Aqueduct in the

winter has been notoriously deep and and and it's kind of slow,

but horses haven't really come out of that or those races and

done well at other places. But this year's a different

story. I mean you you saw Sierra Leone

come back really well at the fairgrounds and then Dornoch

took care of business. I mean, albeit it was a kind of

a paid workout for him, but it's it's also good to see him do

what he needed to do against. Softer competition.

That's exactly right. And the running style too.

That sets up better for a Derby run than it does for Sierra

Leone, who is going to have to come from off the pace if he

keeps his current running style. So that part of Dornoch Berry, I

really like that he's willing to be closer to the front of the

pace, do more of the work than a horse like Sierra Leone is.

And I'm not, it's not a knock on Sierra Leone.

He could definitely win a bunch of races with that running

style, especially at 910 furlongs, that kind of thing.

It's just man, it's it's better if you have less horses to pass

at a 20 horse field. And so that makes me put door

knock probably just running style wise a little ahead of

Sierra Leone. I think Sierra Leone might be a

little more talented between those two.

Barry, do you have a Do you have a favorite?

I'd I'd go with door knock too. I I mean, I like that race in

the fountain of youth. It's pretty good despite it not

being a a a really tough race and you can see the horses kind

of playing around in the stretch, didn't switch leads

until later, you know and they really didn't ask him for too

much. So you know, you kind of rolling

the dice a little bit here, get into a a risky territory where

you know maybe he didn't do enough and and it might hurt

him. Later on.

But that that remains to be seen.

But all systems look pretty good.

It's no thought. All you can do is win the races

in front of you, right? I mean, it's essentially what we

can say about door knocking. And he didn't just win.

He was easily the best horse on this past Saturday down at

Gulfstream Park, thanks to the folks at Gulfstream that was on

their YouTube page. And of course Pete Aiello call

in the races down there. Let's head to Long Island.

Let's head to Aqueduct. Chris Griffin on the call here.

This is from the Nairos YouTube page.

We go back to the Gotham. We will talk about the Gotham.

It is predictability for the Kentucky Derby, but it is

deterministic. Who comes out on top here?

The three horse AO is looming up on the outside.

These two head and head as they reach the top of the stretch. 46

and three for the half mile time, 1:10 and 4:00 for 3/4 El

Grandeo has got the lead in the Gotham.

It's El Grande O out in the center of the racetrack.

Maximus Meridius is battling on chasing his deterministic in

between horses El Grande O. But here comes deterministic in

full gear down towards the inside it takes the lead.

It's deterministic. Who's in front is up by a length

and a half, just a touch in a second.

Deterministic wins the Gotham. So I have a couple things to say

here. The only horse to win the

Gotham, to win the Kentucky Derby was a horse named

Secretariat. Second thing I want to say,

Barry's totally right about that surface.

We had Danielman on last week, I guess two weeks ago now, and he

was talking about the surface at Aqueduct.

And because of that move from Belmont, instead of like

reshaping it, they just they just made it deeper.

And so, you know, it's it's hard to know, especially with these

splits, Barry, how well horses are running at this point.

But I do try to keep track of these of these preps that are

run in the slot, because there's about a 45% chance they'll run

in some kind of wet surface for the Kentucky Derby itself.

The thing I liked about deterministic here is the horse

went between horses, number one to win the race and #2 took a

bunch of kickback. Didn't seem to be bothered by

it. On the turn there, I look at

those as positives. I don't know that this is a

great determiner for the winner of the Kentucky Derby.

What says Barry Spears? Yeah, I mean that kind of

experience has to has to count for something.

When you do those kind of things that these horses haven't done

yet and they actually do them in a race is is always a good thing

because the next time the situation comes up they know

pretty much what to do. That being said, I I really

don't believe that Deterministic wants to get a mile and a

quarter. I don't even know if that horse

wants to get like a mile and a 16th.

I I think that he's a really good one turn Miller, you know

obviously they're going to give it a shot.

I would too if I was in that position, but I I think when

it's all said and done that would be a good good mile or

seven for a long type horse. You know, I was saying last week

too that this is almost setting up, that both the Preakness and

the Pat de Mile on Derby day are going to be fine.

Like we're going to get fantastic.

Fields in both of those and frankly attend Furlong Belmont

at Saratoga, probably. I get it.

Put the asterisks on everyone that wants to be a.

Purist to do whatever. Have at it.

If we get a great field to Saratoga, that's all I give it,

believe it, right so. That's what we want every year.

That's what we want. Doesn't matter where, who, what,

why, You know good racing is good racing you.

Know that's right. Yeah.

Give me door knock. Sierra Leone and Nicos in the

same race. Let's go.

I want all of it. Let's do it.

Give me everything. Yes, that's right.

So nothing held against Deterministic does come from

just behind the pace to win. They're in the Gotham, Thanks to

Naira on their YouTube page and of course, Chris Griffin on the

call there. Let's go out West the San

Felipe. Obviously nice little scratches

out so we miss out on his run in that race.

We're going to miss out on him in the Derby anyhow, so not a

huge change for us here on the Derby trail, except that it

effort went 1/2 thanks back in 3rd.

They turn for home imagination and wind me up.

Imagination. Chest in front.

Wind me up battling bravely at the rail.

It's imagination with a narrow lead with a furlong left to go.

Wind me up though is very tough And here comes wind me up on the

inside under Juan Hernandez. Wind me up.

Imagination in ADK Horse San Felipe Thriller photo finish I

got to say. I got to say let's get this out.

Totally snarky. My man Frank Miramati's doing

God's work, making four horse races sound interesting.

I mean, he's doing God's work. It is what it is, people.

I mean, that's God's work. You're out in LA.

It's beautiful. I've been there.

It is fantastic. Santa Anita is dope as hell, but

that man is making, he's making chicken soup out of chicken

bleep, people. That's what that is.

And it's OK to say my man's doing work.

At least we got a good stretch run out of this one, Barry.

But I mean, I was actually really hoping scat, if I was

going to win this race, We get somebody out of California here.

Yeah, it would have been nice. But you know, I I don't think if

those horses were even going to compete that it would make

anything any easier because it you couldn't separate those two

and there was nobody else in the race.

So it was kind of like a workout.

But it's it's tough with those California horses because the

fields are small and you don't know how they'll respond to a

big field or anything like that. So it it continues to be murky

and this year is is even more like crazy than any other year

because of those factors. And then everybody else is so

lightly raced that you know, I mean who knows, we could see

somebody just kind of blossom and and and grow up in the Tampa

Bay Derby or any one of these next prep that we never even

thought about. I think that's totally right.

The real, the real thing that happened for me on Saturday,

Barry, was I realized I was sad to just not see Niso's run, but

imagine, imagine the kerfuffle if he didn't run and he was

eligible for the Derby. Right.

Right. And he missed a chance at a

starting spot in the in in the Kentucky Derby because he wasn't

able to run in the San Felipe. That didn't happen, obviously.

But the thought experiment of how people would have reacted

had nice just not been available at all for the San Felipe.

And then like is he going to make the San the San Anita

Derby? Is he going to be able to run in

that race? We missed out on that headline.

We missed out on that conversation, and I hate that

about this year. Yeah, it it, you know, it's

just, it's just one of those situations, like I don't really

understand why a lot of trainers have gone to the trend of not

giving themselves chances. I mean a lot of these horses are

going to be up against the wall needing a win or something close

to it in order to get in the Derby when there's opportunities

to run. And it's it's kind of baffling

in a way, especially if you want to make the Derby.

You know, some people are just like, all right, whatever, we'll

skip it. Our horse probably isn't built

for that or what have you and they'll do something else.

You know, like a, a guy like Brad Cox, he really likes to

train up and and it it leaves a really slim margin of error.

I mean, I thought he had a really good shot last year with

Angel of Empire, but when I look back it was like, man, if that

horse may have run one or two times more, he might have been

that much better prepared and and closer to to victory.

Yeah, it's interesting. You know I talked to Brad last

Friday on the Kentucky racing Spotlight and he he he's he's

turning into Baffert and that he'll he'll push the the the

conversation in the direction of the horse he wants to talk about

rather than the one you asked about.

But you know we're going to go. And he, he had the winner at

Turfway and we'll talk about Encino in a second here.

He pushed everybody out of the way and talked about Encino on

that show last week. And then I asked him, I said a

horse that's not in this race is Tennessee.

Is he your Ruby horse? And I heard him smile through

the phone because he he knew I. That's all you need to know.

Whatever the puzzle was. And he's like, yeah, he's my,

he's my Ruby horse. I'm like, there it is.

OK, so his real horse out of that path is Tennessee.

We haven't seen him yet, but Encino did win at Turfway Park

in Florence last weekend. Zach, go ahead and play that

one. Tony Callow on the call Here up

at Turfway Park. Encino makes a move for 3rd.

From the outside. Epic ride has come away with the

lead. Here comes Encino to the

outside. Blue Eyed George is trying to

fight on Bolt at midnight. From the inside a final furlong

to run and the John Battaglia Memorial Epic Ride.

Encino is testing a blue eyed George from the rail.

Here comes Encino. Encino wins the John Battaglia

Memorial so epic ride finishes second in this race and and John

Ennis is one of these trainers very where if a horse is ready

to go he just puts him in the starting game right and and I I

love him for that stuff. What I like about John is we

interviewed him a couple weeks ago and he said about about EP

Grud that if the horse didn't win this race they would just

run him back in the bluegrass and figure it out at Keeneland.

I love that. That's fantastic.

What a great, that is a fantastic attitude to have about

a three-year old horse that's still developing, that's still

getting better and and so I'm hopeful that horse will come

back in the bluegrass. But again, of course Brad Cox

just picks up one of these races with Encino Barry.

Do you still have the the Turfway thing in your head where

you can't admit that this is actually a good route to the

Derby, even though Rich Strike won the damn thing and two Phils

ran a really good race last year?

No, I. Mean.

OK, good. OK.

Yeah, I mean the. The those days are gone.

Yeah, they definitely are. I mean you had Animal Kingdom

win. That's right.

That was, that was years ago, but.

But if you grab somebody in 2010 and said in the next 15 years

there's going to be two Derby winners and a second place are

off this track, people would have laughed at you.

Yeah, it's just but it's but that's that's just not the case

anymore. It's just it's a legitimate path

to the Derby now. Yeah, absolutely.

And this field that they had the other night was was pretty damn

good. I mean it's.

Honestly. It's better than the Tampa Bay

Derby field. So you know it's it's hard to

tell I mean like I said these horses haven't been running you

know a lot. So it's it's you kind of have to

pick and choose and and that's why the Derby is so unique is

you know you get these fresh young horses in the starting

gate a lot of chaos can happen right at the beginning and then

you're out of the race and and you may have had the best horse.

I mean, look at what happened to point given you just on.

Fire and holy bull and. The the list goes on, but it

makes it exciting. And now with everybody being so

evenly matched, you can get a winner from anywhere.

Yep. No, I think it's it's it feels

wide open this year and I I pretty God for betting purposes,

that's true. When I'm standing at 3:22 on

that Saturday in May. We've got to got to pick five

tickets at all or something like that ready to go.

So that'd be great. He's out here is Tony Kalo, man,

he, he sounds like the quintessential race caller.

Not to mention he's a, you're right handicapper too.

He's a He's a good bettor. He's a no they they went away

from you know Jimmy. Jimmy was up there and he was

you know he's he's a Jocks agent too so he's got plenty going on

and I was so worried they were going to lose that turf way

thing. Tony's been fantastic.

He is a perfect he fits there so perfectly.

I'm so glad that he's able to to swing down to Florence for the

winter which is fantastic. So no it's been fun.

I I'm glad to to see especially you know on in the negative

space that is horse racing Twitter.

To see people, really. Embracing these, these weeknight

tracks and you know, that sort of stuff.

And people, you know, I, I know you like to refer to these dead

days of racing, but I mean when there's ten horses in every

race, in a pick five that ain't that's, that's.

What we look for, that's what we want, you know, I, I mean one of

my guiltiest pleasures is, is is my play on Friday nights.

You know, I like playing harness and I and I like playing, you

know, Charlestown and Turfway it.

Sure, it's fun. Yeah.

No, I don't think you're alone in that for sure.

I had a buddy who I got into horse racing like 7-8 years ago

and he texted me a picture of a ticket from Charlestown and he

said you did this to me. Yeah, I did.

That's true. I did.

Yeah, that's how you know they're they're for real.

If if they're betting Charlestown on a on a Thursday

or Friday night, that's. Exactly right.

They're in. They're not.

Getting out. Yeah, that's exactly right.

I don't know if I've said it, but Barry Spears is at Urban

Handicapper on Twitter. Go find him there.

You can follow him along with thousands of people.

How about that? A really, really good fellow and

tapped in with all that stuff. He's also on Going in circles on

on Monday with our guy Chuck Simon.

So make sure that you get in on that as well.

Usually a a multiple hours. So if you're a commuter or you

need something at your desk on Mondays, Barry and Chuck give

you that for sure as well. All right.

Yeah, I know for sure this is a predictive show.

Theirs is a reactive show and so that's a it's one to get in on

for sure. Do you have a Derby favorite at

this point? I know it's a ridiculous

question on the 7th of March. You know what, It is funny

because on the podcast this week Chuck asked me this very same

question. Yes, he did.

The only horse that that kind of caught my eye was catching

freedom. And again it was one of those

things where the horse is kind of green if if he can get his

act together in the stretch and run straight, that horse is

going to be very, very good. I I mean it's just a matter of

time of as to when it happens, it's going to happen because

Brad Cox is so good. It's just a matter of when.

Hopefully you know we'll get him at a price when he when he comes

through. Well, there you go.

All right, well let's get into the card down at Tampa this

coming Saturday. It is their biggest day of the

year at Tampa Bay Downs at Tampa Bay Derby, of course.

I wanted to give a shout out before we started of course to

our guys at Single Barrel Cigars, check them out.

But you mentioned like, hey, try this out, get your horses

running, that kind of thing. Arno Delacore has Fulmaneo in

the Challenger back on the turf, but they tried them on the Derby

trail. They just, they wanted to see,

they wanted to see if they had that three-year old.

They've come to the conclusion that they don't.

So he'll be in the Challenger, obviously on this card in Race

7. But let's or not in the

Challenger, he's going to be in the Columbia.

Excuse me, I got my got my space missions mixed up.

Here we go. And so it's the happy hour,

people. There's only so much I can do

here. All right.

But we'll get to Race 6 here. This does start their pick six,

which runs through Race 11. It is a Grade 3 Challenger mile

and a 16th. Awesome horses in here that you

definitely know. Including last year's winner in

Skippy Longstocking. Not a great showing off the

bench. Last out in the Pegasus World

Cup Invitational at Gulf St. Park.

Had to actually be pulled up in that race, Barry.

Does that mean much to you, or are you drawing a line through

that one for him in this race? You got to have to think about

it. I know the horse didn't kind of

did the same thing last year, but at least he finished the

race. He didn't run that great in the

Pegasus, which was, you know, comparatively to the challenger

is is a world of difference class wise.

So I can forgive that race. Even though he didn't finish, it

looks like he came out of it OK had a.

Couple of workouts look fine? Yep.

Yeah. So I'm, I'm not too concerned,

but the idea is basically where the gamble is in this race is,

is how much you think Impacto is going to get in Skippy's way.

If you think that that horse can get in this way and kind of make

things a little bit difficult for Skippy longstalking, then

this race gets wide open. If not, Skippy should run over

this field twice over and and win by ten.

Yeah, it's. I don't want to call it a free

space in the pick six, but if you were going to go skinny to

start your pick six, it's probably this leg with Skippy

Logstock and do you give dynamic one much of a chance here?

Hasn't won in many years is 4 for 15 lifetime 6 year old

coming in here. I think it's the connections

making it five to two in a short field more than anything.

Yes, that is absolutely correct. I mean, this source probably

wants to go longer than the mile in the 16th anyway.

This is probably something to to get him through those summertime

kind of stakes where where he, he had a pretty good run last

year or two years ago in 2022 with the Suburban, you know?

I remember that suburban. Yeah, yeah.

I mean he he kind of peaked and he was running really well that

year. That whole year he ran, ran

pretty decent. So I think they're going to try

to point towards those races and this one, it seems a little bit

too short, but good enough to springboard off of, especially

coming off a Pegasus that was kind of over his head.

Yeah, it was a little over his head.

He did earn enough money in that Pegasus to pay for his purchase

price for his career at $730,000, he was purchased for

$725,000. Before anyone says anything,

yes, I understand that's not how horse racing works.

All right. Next X Races race 7 to Columbia

Oz. Black type 75K here.

Mile on the turf course there. That beautiful Wash Turf course.

What's it like having a reliable turf course, Barry?

It's different. But actually lately they've been

kind of, you know, babying it a little bit and been off the

turf. It kind of got rainy here last

week. So I I get it.

I I mean it was, it was kind of monsoon type conditions but not

for very long but enough to to kind of soak it really bad where

they couldn't run on it. That being said, you know most

days it it's it's absolutely lovely.

Chad Brown's out here. You know, he's got a few horses

that have been running well over this track.

In fact, you know, he's been so kind of cold that Tampa's really

the only place he's been winning.

It's not wrong. We had Brian Nadeau on last week

from Gulfstream Park. He had nothing but great things

to say about the turf course at Tampa.

We head there for the smile race.

I have full meneo on top, man. I really like the 10 horse here,

even though he's got to make that trip from the outside.

I think this move to this race makes a ton of sense for him.

I don't want to call this essentially a high level

allowance, but it essentially is a high level allowance for

three-year olds. What says Barry Spears about

this one? You know, I looked at this race

up and down a few times and and basically where I I stand with

it is there's not much speed in here at all.

And a horse like in a jam who was showing speed at you know,

maiden races. Then he jumps up into an

optional claimer allowance type race 75K at at Gulfstream and he

comes from pretty far out of it and to me that's signalling that

with the tougher competition he's probably not going to be on

the lead. So that kind of brings me to to

full Nelson, the horse outside of him, the eight who might go

unopposed for a lot of this race and I think he's going to, he's

going to hang in there, he's getting one of the top riders at

the track so he knows the track well.

He he he rides there every day and Sammy does a great job of

raiding horses on the front end and not to mention he's kind of

on the way up. He's kind of getting better.

You know they switched him over to the turf from the synthetic 2

races ago and he's on a three race running streak.

I think this horse has a lot of upside.

The pace kind of favors his way at 12:50 I I I really can't

resist. But you know a horse like Move

to Gold who's going to be the favorite hasn't run since

actually my birthday October 28th and he's just seems like a

dead closer has one kind of OK race but it's it's going to be

tough because I don't I don't think this this pace is going to

get fast. Yeah, it's interesting too.

So I mean the the wild card to me here is, is the three to 1

TikTok, the 9 horse coming off the layoff, right.

And we just, we haven't seen a consistent pattern coming out of

that Breeders' Cup for some reason.

We it it's either horses are ready to go or their fierceness,

right. And so I or life talk or

whatever, right. I mean it is, it is really

fascinating trying to predict which of these horses coming off

the bench from the fall as two year olds, of course, are going

to be good at 3. And TikTok, I think it's one you

got to include in your tickets because if he wins, are you

going to be surprised? I wouldn't.

Be no, I I mean a lot of these horses could win and you

wouldn't be surprised, but talk talk is is very, very good and

you know it's just a matter of how you feel about the layoff.

Yeah, a reminder, this is one of the pick fives.

Another pick five will start later on, but in race 8 is a

handicap 7 furlongs. This is the Manatee overnight,

which is one of my favorite names in all of horse racing.

It's up there with the dinner party stakes for very different

reasons, but this is 7 furlongs on the dirt forward up for

Phillies and mares 50K in the Kitty here.

I don't love the favorite here and so I think there's a chance

to make some money. Barry, even without a huge

field. What says you?

Yeah, It's a same sort of situation as the last one we

talked about where you know, I'm not really too sure how quick

the pace is going to be for a horse like Sterling Silver to to

run into especially off the layoff.

You know it, it it's, it's just a tough task.

And on the rail to boot, that's a tough horse to take at a short

price. I think you know there's a

possibility that the pace could be honest enough for a horse

like the Ford Cheetah. To to come.

Kind of running late, but I'm not really sure if this horse is

going to stay in this race or not.

Or run it. Going, I agree with that too.

So so you got to have to kind of tread carefully horse like Poema

seems like it's it's a rabbit for dream Concert.

But there's a there's a sort of a situation you know this horse

is getting Jose Ortiz and you're like why?

But the horse has speed. I think one of Jose Ortiz's

strengths is his riding on the front end especially on the

dirt. This horse is training well.

There's a bullet there on February 25th at the Gulfstream

2 Bullets. Actually his last two works were

bullets and the other horses in this race don't feel like they

they're really all that quick and even that one can kind of

come off the pace slightly. Dream Concert is another one

that might be tough in this spot that that likes this track and

and is only getting better. So this this is a really wide

open race. I couldn't fault anybody for for

really liking anybody, maybe other than maybe one or two

others. Try the five Lady Rattler on top

here. Second off the layoff, random.

That Raven run at Keeneland just was out of gas by the end of her

campaign last year. I thought she ran really well

for a first time back in that minaret on Sam F Davis Day this

last month in February. I think she's got a legit shot

here as well for Jesus Costanon and a smaller barn in the

Campbell barn. That might be the kind of horse

that can really elevate a pick whatever sequence that you're in

as well, especially if you can get that horse somewhere around

six to one like it is all right. Usually at Tampa once or twice a

day you get these kind of inexplicable results and and I I

I don't know which race it's going to be in, but I'm pretty

sure one of these races is somebody's going to pop at a

huge price. It usually happens every year,

especially on the big days, Every Tampa Bay Derby day,

there's usually one price that's outrageous.

Like, how did that happen? So we'll see.

According to the graded stakes committee, the ninth race is the

best race at Tampa the whole year.

It is the Hillsborough. It is a grade 2.

It's a mile and an eighth on that shoot down there at Tampa

Bay Down's Another pick four here that you can play.

Really playable takeout rates on the double S, the pick threes

and the pick fours at Tampa. So whatever kind of player you

are, you want to try those rolling pick threes maybe.

Maybe take a stand in some of these races.

Really good opportunity this weekend.

We see some horses in here. There's a lot of class in this

race, Barry. We get fluffy socks here.

Market segmentation, both out of the Brown barn, obviously.

Sparkle Blue is in here at 8:00 to 1:00.

That's a pretty good sign that this is a pretty damn good race.

What do you say about this one? Yeah, this is brutal.

This race was really tough, but you know, after, you know, kind

of pouring over the PPSII do think Beechnut Trophy is is

going to scratch out of this race, which kind of makes it a

little bit easier. Not much but market segmentation

looks like the controlling speed and I'm not really too sure

who's going to get in front of this horse at all.

I think this one might be the goods in this race especially

with the with the scratch of Beechnut trophy who doesn't have

or has shown some zip in the past.

Elusive Princess is another one that that looks to be in great

form. But beyond those two I I think

it's kind of a toss up. But I I like those two, but

they're probably going to be bet pretty good in this race.

Yeah. I the only one you didn't

mention that I'm going to have an eye on a star fortress on the

outside just because I thought she came back OK in that the

World Cup. The Pegasus.

Philly mare turf. Not a great run five likes off

the off the winner by the end. But that was the first time back

since a run in the cardinal right before Thanksgiving here

in Louisville at at Churchill Downs.

But here's the deal. I don't know how much that was

really grass in November at Churchill.

I mean I'm not kidding. And like they they shut the turf

course down the next day. That's right, the next day.

I'm not at all sure how much of A turf race that really was, but

I think that horse on the outside is going to get a good,

is going to get a good ride. And I do think Sheree Devoe does

a really nice job with horses second off the layoff as well.

And Tyler will give that horse a really, really fair trip as well

I think in that one. So I agree though, if you're

yeah. She's definitely talented.

Do you know what I think about her?

She's she's definitely talented. I just need her to prove it to

me again. She ran great at Churchill.

And then, you know, not not so bad.

I mean it it wasn't the best of trips, but she didn't fire

either. She was the morning line

favorite, I think, in in that race.

Oh, she yeah, she went. Off and then she drifted up at

to to like 7 to 2 and and didn't get the greatest of trips either

was bump checked around a little bit.

So I can understand people you know giving her the the pass on

that one. You know I just wasn't too

enthusiastic about her in that race because of how she ran at

Churchill. Now the rebound makes a lot of

sense in this spot. It does and I think that shoot

will help her running style as well because she's going to want

to run late. It's going to let her settle in

fourth, fifth position. That's exactly right.

I think Tyler will slaughter in very nicely there as well.

Let's move on. Florida Oaks Grade 3 obviously

for three-year old, Philly's here 200K in the Kitty mile on

the 16th, we're back on that turf course as well.

Look, this is this is another one where at least on the

morning line they think it's pretty wide open.

When you're with dynamic pricing, all these horses name

dynamic, I'm going to lose track dynamic pricing is, is the Chad

Brown Jose Ortiz favorite at 7:00 to 2:00.

Do you agree that she's the favorite here?

Yeah, absolutely. She kind of ran the best in a

strong race. The sweetest chant that a couple

of them are coming out of. I I do think those horses might

dominate this race if you had. If I had to pick right now, I

would go with the 5W Sue. Like it?

I I think that horse is on the rise.

You know Mott tends to do well with these types of runners.

You know horses that show flashes come back then kind of

he takes his time and when they get back on the scene they they

really run and and I think we're going to get that kind of effort

out of this horse on Saturday. But there this is an evenly

matched race. I I could see more than half of

this field winning. So if you know any, pretty much

anybody but the two and and even the two, you could make a case

for in in some way, shape or form.

Oh, if that horse gets an early lead and no one pushes.

Right. And nobody goes.

It's it's it's a home run. Almost.

Yeah, right. You don't know.

Yeah, right. But dynamic pricing should

should be able to to get his run.

It's just a closer you know I I'm not really too fond of

closers at all. I think you need to be at least

close up. But Irad's the best and Jose

he's the second best so you know he's he.

I think actually, I think Jose rides better on the turf anyway,

but man, that this is going to be a hell of a race.

Yeah, I the only one that I that you didn't mention that I'm

really fascinated to see here only because I appreciate I

think Trina Mark Cassie's just trying different things.

Where she ran in the forward gal to see if she was going to be on

the oaks trail. Didn't like the dirt They're

getting her off the dirt. She ran on the synthetic.

This is wit waters ran on the outside the 12 horse 8 to 1 here

for that barn. Look, I'm just interested they

they hired the local jock in Gallardo.

I don't know if this horse ends up winning the race.

It might be too much work for her to run and win from the 12,

but I'm interested to see her because she's going to try to

run in that stalking position. I think she's going to be right

behind on Premiera Vista, for example.

And if it's not fast enough, I could see her going and making

her own way, and then that way we might get something

interesting in that race. Yeah, I think.

I think getting out or being forced to get position is

probably a blessing in disguise for that horse.

All right, well the the race of the day Race 11 is the Tampa Bay

Derby Grade 34K in the Kitty Here mile in the 16th.

It is presented by Lambholm South as well, a little too

much. Oh, cigar head on.

Oh. It's almost like smoking's bad

for you. All right, well, we got a bunch

in here. We got domestic product back

from that holy bowl And of course, no more time.

The winner of the Sam F Davis last month.

How did he look, By the way? I know you were there.

Did you make the trip for the Davis?

I can't remember. Yeah, I was there.

That's right. How did he look in the Davis?

He looked pretty good. I I mean it was such an odd race

because it didn't really pan out like it looked like it was going

to on paper and I kind of thought that after the race that

no More time kind of got an easy sort of lead.

He ended up being the favorite which was was a little

surprising but he kind of had his way with it.

You know and and I know Agate Rd. kind of sort of made a run

at him but it was never in doubt.

I I mean it was it was a pretty strong performance and it wasn't

as slow as as it might appear you know comparatively with the

times of everybody else in this race it was it was rather quick.

But that being said he's not a monster.

Nobody's afraid of him. There's there's a lot of

different directions you can go and and a horse like domestic

product who I kind of like in this spot because he ran into a

slow pace and and was finishing pretty good and I think that can

only help him as things get a little bit quicker.

He's just got to get a rider that's going to be, you know,

patient enough to to wait for it because he's going to give it to

you in the stretch. Calumet is paying Irad Ortiz to

ride good money in this race run once won once for Chad Brown.

Do you read into that at all? You kind of have to, because I

don't. I don't see IRAD wasting mounts.

Not in a $40,000 race, That's. Right, exactly.

I I mean he, you know, I I think if he didn't really or him and

his agent didn't think that this horse had somewhat of a chance,

he wouldn't be in it riding. He'd be somewhere else or you

know, doing other things, winning other races in other.

Places that's right. That being said, you know if

these horses improve, he's a three-year old.

He ran good the first time out on the track that they're

running on. There's a lot of upside here,

even with the Maiden on the way outside.

Why not? I mean, you know that that race

he ran in a mile and 8th was not bad.

The horses that were beating him are awfully good locked domestic

product, who's in this race? So I mean this, this can go a

lot of different directions, but I think domestic product just

off the last race, you know that big improvement off the, you

know the kind of freshening, I think it just springs board,

springboards that horse into a a different category at the end of

the day. It is so interesting to that you

mentioned Sturdy on the outside. I'm fascinated by that horse

too, I think. This got to be.

They were going to run in this spot no matter what, but he has

run without Lasix, obviously as a 2 year old over that mile in

an eighth course on Long Island at Aqueduct under Javier

Castellano. I love that Junior Alvarado gets

the ride here. Really interested to see if he

can put together a a good race in this one as well because he's

going. To see him at least getting the

money and get some points. Yeah, no, that's right.

And so, yeah, I'm. I don't know why I can't get

over good money here, man. The four horse.

There's something about that horse that's just he just

stretches out so damn well. I just, I I just, it does, Irad

stretching out. It just it just makes so much

damn sense to me. It it definitely does.

And you know, it's just bizarre because you see Jose Ortiz is

riding the one for Pletcher and that's where you most likely

would see Irad. So there's a lot going on in

this race, you know, you just got to got to make some

decisions I guess. Go ahead and give us a pic.

Is it domestic product? Yes.

That's what I think it is too. I think he's the the winner at

the end of the day. I'm watching the four though,

and I'm watching the outside horse as well in the 10 in

Sturdy, A son of Mottoli. Never thought I'd be talking

about Mottoli's routing, but here we are.

I say that, but the the horse won the damn at mile.

I mean, it's not like he, you know, I mean, it's not like he

didn't go distance. I mean just really fast.

One of my favourites, the last decade for sure in Mottoli.

So good to see his kids doing just fine.

The last leg of all of this is an allowance on turf mile and a

16th up that chute. This is for Phillies of mares

who are 4 and up. This is essentially a non to

lifer in this one. I think this is a race where you

can go pretty skinny. What says Barry Spears?

Yeah, I I think you can do that. I I do like a horse in here that

you know it's probably going to be around 7:00 or 8:00 to 1:00

it's cloud storage I I think that horse has has you know run

well in the past especially at Tampa.

He has two wins on the turf course and I think this horse is

versatile enough to be where you need him to be and and I think

Bennett you know chose Camacho to ride this horse for that

reason because he's so good at at at reading the pace and you

know when it slows down he's up near the the near the front when

it speeds up he's back in the back to get his best run.

So I I I think that one's going to be a a good shot here.

I might, I might take a shot and single him in the last.

Love it. No, that's great.

And I mean frankly, you know one of the things I love doing of

doing this podcast, Barry, is that we do go to different

tracks around the country and you're you're forced to really

immerse yourself at who the royalty of those tracks are.

Sammy Camacho's Tampa royalty. He just is it's OK to say, I

mean that or King Guillermo. That's all I need to say.

People drink. And so it is, it's an

interesting close. I always, I don't know.

Do you have a similar rule that if a jockey who's in from out of

town stays around for the last race, you pay attention?

Yes. Typically, yeah, you.

Kind of have to. I mean, you know, those guys are

trying to get out of there, especially to go across state,

you know, back to Miami, the Miami area, so.

Yeah, yeah. So I ran on three here.

Yeah, I ran on the three here. Not a million years, Tyler

staying on a start up mentality for Chad Brown as well.

I'm going to be using the two chads at the end of the sequence

here just to try to get out of town.

Barry will be on the seven cloud storage.

I really like that pic. Seems to be a really good one.

Shout out to our guy Eddie C by the way.

Commenting on the show deputy minister lineage on the four

there of course. And so yeah no, I mean that

Tampa Bay Derby dude if you like, Barry said.

I think you could make a legitimate case for I.

Don't have one? At least, right?

Yeah, sure, right. And to hit the board?

Almost all of them, for sure. Why don't they give a shout out

to one of the really good guys in racing, Darwin.

Viscaya's got a horse in the Tampa Derby in literally in

Kati. Rey Vizcaya, the six horse

there. He's going to be 30 to one.

He's really up against it in this race.

But I love Darwin. He's such a good guy.

Great. Does great work up at Naira E

Pues Ciabla Espanol Darwin ETU Hermano.

OK, so get in on Darwin. He's a great guy doing all this

stuff. Naira Ane Espanol.

Love that stuff for sure. I I've been.

I need to do an episode in Spanish, don't I?

I just need to like you. Should, yeah, you definitely.

Should, Yeah, I think that's my best chance to talk to Claudio

Espadaro. Just saying there you.

Go. Hey, I'm going down there in a

couple weeks, man. Just give me an, you know,

something to say. I can I I can write it up for

you. I I read and write Spanish.

So we're good. Adam All right, so you'll be at

Tampa this weekend. You've seen what he looks like.

People go harass him. Say that yes, please do.

Happy hour. Let's go.

What do? We do.

I like taking pictures, you know.

But. That's what that's one of the

things about the track is meeting people.

From Oh man, it's. So fun Stuff's the best for

sure. Yeah, it's so these Barry Spears

at Urban Handicapper on Twitter. Find them on Going In circles

with our guy Chuck Simon every Monday as well.

And all the good work they do over there.

Barry, we always, always love it when you jump on.

I'm sure we'll talk to you before the Derby.

Be well, my friend. I'm glad.

You look good, man. You feeling good?

Feeling great, man. You know, getting used to

everything, the medicines and the routine and all this other

stuff that I didn't even know about before.

But, you know, I'm making it. I I feel good though.

I feel, you know, probably better than ever.

I even before this happened, I was feeling great and I was

like, wow, that was not on my bingo card.

Well, there you go. Sometimes the the cumulative

parts of life catch up. What's up, Zach?

I I should add that everyone looks good when Louie's on the

show. That's fair enough.

Yeah. Thank you.

Thank you. Zach.

He's not wrong. It's OK.

All right. Well, he's Barry Spears.

We'll let him get out of here. Barry, we appreciate you, man.

We'll talk to you soon. All right, man.

Thanks. We'll see if there.

All right, Zach, get on here, buddy.

We'll close up the show together.

Zacarias on here. Producer Zach, if you will.

Look man this is it's interesting because these these

Fifty Point preps and with how trainers are training up to the

Derby now and skipping these races they've become really

important cogs in the in the story of the path to the Derby

now and especially with Derby 150 and all the the hoop lots

going to be going on. I I listen to media around town

here talk about what they're working on and they're like top

10 Derby moments ever. I'm like you're an investigative

journalist looking up meth like what are you talking about Derby

like you know like this kind of stuff that's where we're at man.

I mean it is it's it's already kicking up around here, which is

it's one of the best times you're around here for sure, but

these are the kinds of weather. Where the Top 10 Derby moments

ever are already clocked. Thanks.

Thanks for adding to that list of exactly the same thing that

everyone else has been doing. We will have the gold book, Gold

book bets.com on. I will have a pick five play and

a pick six play for Tampa as part of that card and I'll

probably have a couple of rolling pick threes for earlier

on the card because there are some races that I really like

where I think you can get some value as well.

I want to thank everybody for hanging out.

I think we had a huge number on the stream on Twitter today,

which I really appreciate. You can find us at Horse Happy

Hour on Twitter. If you're listening right now,

you can join. I think it's like 6 or 7000

people that watch us every month on Spotify as well.

So go check us out there as well.

We get great pictures in our DMS from people by the way, don't DM

us. Put them on Twitter and text.

It's way better if you're watching this show.

I don't know, in Maine or something.

Or Dubai. Or China.

Or wherever. Like 30 people in Poland that

live at, listen every week. I don't know why you do, but I

love you. And so, yes, I'll be one of

those people and just go ahead and give us a shout that way.

All right? Producer Zach, how's things

going? You doing all right?

We, I mean, we good. I should talk business.

We we'll have a pre-order up next month for our Derby 150

package. You're gonna see 25% off on that

package if you order in the month of April, so.

Yeah, so we'll have you covered every racing day at Churchill

Downs Derby week. We'll do both days, Black Eyed

Susan and Preakness, and then of course Belmont Day as part of

that package as well. Have you totally covered for all

those races? Gold book, bets.com.

Get in now 'cause then you get on the e-mail list anytime you

download from us. And we'll make sure that you're

totally covered with all of those things as well.

Tomorrow on the Kentucky Racing Spotlight, I wanted to share

this. It'll come out on this platform

as well. I'm going to talk to my friend

Roger Browning, and if you don't know his story, he was the owner

of a great story and then a really tragic one with nobody

Listens last year. And if you want to hear the

connection between owner and horse and how emotional it gets

with these equine athletes, it's a really good chance to hear

that. And I really encourage people to

listen to that episode either live tomorrow, 6:00 here in

Louisville on 680-1057, or if you want to write on this

platform here with the horse racing happy hour as well.

Again, I want to say that. Like sitting?

Yep, There we go. Rep Single.

Barrel scars. Really good guys.

Nick man, all the guys down there.

Amazing guys. The product is really good.

If you like bourbon, if you like cigars.

Best marriage out there. Not even a question.

Their process. They buy the they buy the the

full leaf tobacco from Nicaragua imported.

Buy the the empty barrels. Hang it in the barrels.

Yep, instead of artificial flavors, none of that BS, they

put them together. Delicious cigars.

Really, really great. And so make sure you get in on

those as well. I apologize.

I cut you off. Oh, I was just going to say, you

know, like every other sport, horse racing looks like hardcore

business, which it is, you know, when you watch it on TV or or,

you know, on the Internet. But man, Roger Story is just

amazing. Like it's Yeah, Roger Story is

really, really worth hearing. Aspect of this that owners are

invested in their horses. This is not just a business,

it's it's also, you know, there's human investment.

Oh yeah, And you'll hear the emotion and and he and I talked

yesterday. You will hear the heartbreak of

owning a horse and and all those things and you know it he sounds

like a guy who lost his, his dog he had for 15 years.

I mean he really does. And so I really want people to

hear that story. It's really, it's heartbreaking,

but it is absolutely worth tuning in for.

All right, Zach, play some music.

Let's get out of here and we will get you into your weekend

again, 11:50 tomorrow on ESPN, 680-1057 if you want to join me.

Listen, anywhere in the world, ESPN louisville.com.

And of course, tomorrow on the Kentucky Racing Spotlight, we'll

talk to him and trainer. Oh my gosh, now I'm mixing up

all of my guys. Source just won the Oaks Prep.

His name is Eric Foster. I apologize to Eric for that.

We tried to connect today. He and I will connect tomorrow

and get that episode together for everybody.

But let's play the music and get out of here.

For producer Zach and our guy Barry Spears, I'm Louie Rubel.

This is the Horse Racing Happy Hour at Horse Happy Hour, Horse

Racing happyhour.com for all the good things as well, We'll talk

to you next week. Good luck this weekend.