Brian Nadeau | Fla Derby 2024

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Hi, welcome back in. Reminder, we are your home in

Kentuckiana for all of the live play by play of the NCAA

tournament. NC State, Marquette, Gonzaga,

Purdue, Duke, Houston and Creighton, Tennessee round out

the rest of the Sweet 16 tonight.

Vegas got some of that money back last night with three of

the upsets happening as well. I do want to take a little bit

of a left turn here, maybe a right turn.

I don't know. Hit the.

Gas. They go left.

Left, Left. That we go left.

How about a? Left turn, then Brian Nadeau,

he's with down there at Gulf St. Park.

He's joined us a couple times on the horse racing happy hour, but

this is a professional show. Brian, good morning.

How are you? Hey.

Louie, what's going on? Good morning.

Very, very little. We're not hiring basketball

coaches here or anything. So how about that?

Yeah, you guys got it rough. There.

Have you ever? Well, I've been not.

Not. You know what happened?

It actually lined up with ratings week, which is an insane

gift. It really is just an absolute

gift. And so I've never asked you, Do

you have a college basketball team?

Yeah, I'm a die. I'll tell you what, Louis, I'm a

diehard Oklahoma fan. So I'll trade my terrible,

terrible coach for your coach on the day of the week.

Porter Moser. I would drive him to the

airport, but that's not going to happen.

With it 6,000,000 we have a $6 million buyout that we can't

pay. So let alone your 33 million.

So we're in, we're in the street boat, I guess.

Bad news, 10.2 million on the Porter Mosier buyout by the way.

Sorry about that Brian talking great contracts here on Provoco,

ESPN, 680-1057. We had Matt Dinnerman on from

Oaklawn Park last night. Talked to Oaklawn or talked to

Arkansas Derby and those sorts of things.

If you I mean, look, I I know you want people to bet down your

way, but if you had to pick between the races, do you think

the eventual Kentucky Derby winners more likely running in

Hallandale Beach or in Hot Springs this weekend?

Hallandale Beach not as a Homer at all but you know you throw in

the the fact that but the the bafford horses can't run and I'm

not a Timberlake fan at all so I think clearly not a not a mile

and 1/4 for Timberlake. So yeah I think it's clearly

here. Now with that being said, it,

you know, doesn't have to be here, but I if you maybe pick

I'm, I'm definitely picking the Gulf St.

Berkshire. In the last 10 years, of course,

we've had Nyquist Orb always dreaming and if you want to

include him maximum security come out of the Florida Derby

run very well. Obviously in the Kentucky Derby.

Mage here. Mage as well of course.

Yeah. What I'm There you go.

So Brian Nadeau with us from down at Gulfstream Park.

Brian under score J under score Nadeau on Twitter.

Go find him there. All the things happening down at

Gulfstream Park. Let's start with race 11.

It is the Gulfstream Park Oaks. I think we have a tendency to

overlook these Oaks preps as they happen.

Brian. But this man, OK, I cannot

figure out this race, and I know that I'm right when the favorite

is a horse that's never routed and hasn't run since September.

So the last time Saratoga was open, the last time this horse

ran, I laid it on Gunsong the Six.

This is race 11, by the way, down at Gulf St.

Park tomorrow. What do you see in this race?

Yeah, I I mean, I agree with you.

Ways and Means is a favorite. She's eight to five.

I made the morning line. She could be 3 to 5.

Lily, I they might not bet other horses in here.

She's very, very good. I think it's, I think it's

significant that Chad Brown is going to run her here off that

layoff at Saratoga. Clearly they have the Kentucky

Oaks in mind if they're going to come back in this spot.

There are obviously other one turn races he could have run in

and here she is. So she's a real problem for this

group because she is way better than this group.

With that being said, I did pick Gunsong as well.

The Recency Edge is big. I think she beat some nice

horses here. She was visually impressive when

she won her last race. There are some hurdles.

Is she a Lasix horse? Is she A1 turn horse?

There is some things going on here but this is the other thing

too is now this is the short stretch finish line at a mile

and a 16th so you can get away a little bit with maybe not being

a true two turn route horse and still win this race.

I like her tactical speed. I like her post and I just I

don't like our devona Dale horses to be perfectly blunt

with you I'm not going to play any of them into champagne.

Look like a horse that you would think would want more distance

but she was got repelled in the in the devona Dale by you know

Fiona's magic who has some from dorth Vader to her Mike Yates

train last year to to win some nice races and I don't I'm not

sold at her going to turn scalable is 20 to one in this

race if she wasn't Todd Pletcher and Michael Polly you know so it

to me it's it's Ways and Means it's clearly the horse to beat

but from a value perspective I I'm with Gunsong as well as you

are. Morning Line Maker down there at

Gulfstream Park. His name is Brian Nadeau.

Joins us here on Rabo and Co ESPN 681057.

We got you till noon. Bobby V is after us.

The Sands Springs is the next race.

A couple of turf races here in a row, one for the Phillies and

Marys and one for the boys. Did you land on anybody in race

12:00 tomorrow? Well, I mean, the defending

champion market segmentation is in here and she's supposed to

win. She's just way better than this

group. She's a little dressed up off

her form last year. She did win a grade one last

year, but they they kind of gave it to her on the front end.

But you know, she's really good and I'm not really sure in here

Lily who's really good. Now the interesting thing is

it's a third straight race where Chad Brown and Seth Klarman are

going to run a horse off a significant layoff.

She hasn't been out since the Diana mid-july at Saratoga.

Now clearly I don't want to say don't care about this race, but

you know, the screws are not 100% tight and I think that's

pretty obvious that, you know, there's bigger fish to fry for

her down the road. Now with that being said, she

could probably be 85% and still win this race.

The barn hasn't been phenomenal here this winter.

The layoff horses have tended to look and run like they needed a

race. I did pick her.

I don't love her. The problem is it's one of those

races, Louie. It's it's like if it's not her,

well who is it? Because then you really kind of

they're all look the same. I I'm going to use candy light

because she in the honey fox was racing on the turf for the first

time for Sappy. I'm going to tell you she was

going to win but she was going to be a heck of a lot closer

than where she was because she completely got stopped trying to

come up the fence in mid stretch.

So she was my point on all of it is she had she showed marked

improvement in her first turf start for sappy Joseph Junior.

She's got a good post again. We're just going to have to work

out a trip. It wasn't there last time.

No real fault of Tyler Gaffney Leone.

It's just turf racing, you know, You wait for the seam, it

doesn't open up, you get sawed off.

And that's that's how it works out sometimes.

So I'm going to use her again. But this is not a race I want to

go too, too deep in, because I just kind of feel like at the

end of the day, the favorite might be just a little too much

racehorse release. Trying to do with us from down

there at Gulfstream Park. He makes the morning lines and

he does a bunch of handicapping on air for them.

So you'll see him on the track team tomorrow as part of Florida

Derby day. The Appleton's the next race,

race 13. We're doing the late pick four

here at Gulfstream Park. Mile for the boys, 150K in the

Kitty here. I'm actually really a fan of

mile route races in on the turf in in American racing.

I think it's some of the the the best races that we have.

Who'd you land on here? I have ice chocolate on top,

believe it or not. Yeah, yeah, actually I do too.

You and I are going to sink a swim together.

This is the race though I I put together Olympic 4 ticket was

$28.00. This is the race that I I think

you're allowed to maybe get a little funky or have some fun

with. I went 7 deep.

I did pick him on top. I like his post.

I like his tactical speed. You know this is a trick race.

Louie. This is this is a turf race

through and through. And what I mean is it's whoever

gets lucky and gets the best trip and doesn't, you know, get

gets. The team is probably going to

win because they're all right there on paper.

They're all within a length or two of each other.

Who's the favorite? And your big Everest is the

favorite. But I mean he's an aqueduct

Taurus. He's done all his best work on

the aqueduct turf. So you're allowed to pick holes

in him. Never surprised.

I I was blown away by his comeback.

This is a horse that ran second in the Pegasus turf and somehow

he's 7 to one for for Todd Pletcher and Mike Rapoli.

Off of what's what's the layoff? 416 month layoff and he runs his

eyeballs out. Now which way does he go from

there? Does he regress because he had

to run so hard? He was completely dead on the

board in that race. I'm just going to hope he moves

forward a little bit because at the end of the day if he's back

to his best he'll win this race. But now he's he hasn't run a

good figure and essentially three straight starts and he's

got that layoff that he's got to come.

Now as he does he regress off such a hard turn race so we'll

see you know quality Jeep beat him.

That race is stable made. I don't, I don't like him at all

but he keeps making me look like a fool and so here he is now in

great form. So this is just a big spread

race. There are other some of the

price sources. Smoke and tea should run better

though. He was very very flat in the

Canadian last time. Right here behind ice Chuck a

lot you know lucky scores. Got a lot of class.

He's also entered Sunday so we don't really know where he's

going. Church town sounds OK.

The post is a real problem for him.

He got some speed down to the inside, but Saratoga Flash

County Finals? Not impossible.

It's a tough, tough race, Louis. I think this is a type of race

where people will kind of do what I'm doing.

I like I said, I went 7 deep and to be perfectly honest with you,

I'm not a fan of the All Ball. But if there ever was one, this

could be it. Oh, there you go.

All right, well, the Florida Derby is the final race on the

card in Hallandale Beach tomorrow. 1,000,000 bucks on the

line mile and an eighth on the dirt.

Start at the start. Finish at the same line.

Look, an interesting field. I don't think up to the usual

standard of the Florida Derby and I say that.

But Brian, you know, we've watched these, these preps over

and over and I remember before the Holy Bowl we had you on the

horse racing happy hour and you didn't love Hades and he wins

and and that's not, you know, whatever, that's not an

indictment on your handicapping or anything.

These things sort of just worked out.

We're seeing a ton of closers win Derby preps and we're seeing

the pace just not be blistering in any of these races.

It really just hasn't picked up anywhere.

Can Hades run it back like he did in the Holy Bowl?

Well, I think he's in a tough spot down there.

He's going to have to see it out on the front end.

This is a real race on Saturday too, because the Holy Bowl in

the fountain youth. I don't want to discredit them,

but we're talking. You said it perfectly.

This is a 9 furlong start at the finish and at the finish.

There's no short stretch here. There's nothing carrying speed

horses home here. You got to earn it on Saturday

and and and well, Joe Arsino has done a phenomenal job with

Hades. He watches races.

He gallops out like a like a a freak.

I I just. I need to see it again that

that's all. He just absolutely walked the

dog in the holy bowl. Fierceness didn't run for

whatever reason. We'll talk about him in a

second. But you know let's just assume

everything goes according to plan on Sunday and that means

fierceness breaks. Well, that means fierceness is

going to be outside of 80s in that that Hall of Fame John

Velazquez kind of ride two path pressing.

And I just feel like that's a problem for Haiti's.

He's the one horse I'm going to fade in here.

I picked Conquest Lawyer. I think it's a big deal.

He's got a nine for a long race and win over the track a little

bit. He's a little slow, I understand

that, but I I feel like he is now.

He was that that horse we see, you know, we see twenty of them

every year that they're playing catch up, you know, and and then

finally when you get to 9 furlongs, they've caught up and

there's no guarantee that Hades is going to get this trip.

We don't know what we're going to get from fierceness.

If the real fierceness shows up, he might lap the field.

I don't think anybody's going to disagree with that.

But what do you get from him? He's got, you know, sometimes he

just stinks and I don't know. I'm not giving him a pass at all

for the Holy Bowl. There is nothing going on at the

start. I don't you can watch that race

20 times. There's no pinball at the start.

He broke a little slow and he was terrible, let's just be

honest. So he's apparently worked really

well. I'm no expert in that but he

always works well and so he's just a tough horse to trust.

They're going to bet him hard. So I he's my other A and I put

him in second, but I'm not going to.

I can't really see making A A A win bet in the race but when I

play my horizontals, it'll be conquest, Boyer and fierceness.

I I would be hard pressed to come up with a scenario where

someone other than the three strong above and beyond

favorites wins this race. Ken Ledam, bro.

The story there with any El Cordero, Just an awesome story.

If he hits the board, he's got a real shot at a starting spot in

the Kentucky Derby. Does he have a chance at that?

Yeah, he can hit the board. Heck yeah.

I mean, I like Frankie's empire a little bit better out of the

Fountain View because I thought he was running on a little bit

more. But of course he can hit the

board. That's the interesting thing

about this race. OK, We just talked about three

horses that I think those are the three horses that can win.

But hitting the board, I mean, anybody can hit the board real

macho, could be running on late, you know, if they go crazy up

front. So absolutely he could hit the

board. It would be a phenomenal story.

20 years old, Louis, you kind of hit it.

Hinted at it. This is a trainer that we don't

really know a lot about, but he's done very, very well this

winter and you can see it right there in front.

And he's done good work with Ladon, Bro.

And you know, he's by Mucho Macho man.

So what? Why can't he handle this trip

nicely? And he, you know, I don't want

to take anything away from the fountain of youth was a weird

race. We all know what happened to

scratches and this and that and then they, you know, it was just

Door Knock's race and he went about his business.

I think we're going to find out a lot more on Saturday about the

Fountain of Youth because we've got Frankie's empire.

We've got Le Dom, Bro, even Real Macho.

And then of course door Knock's going to go in the Bluegrass

with Look, which is shaping up to be a phenomenal race.

So, you know, maybe feather that and put that into your your

think tank there for next week, but I think we'll find out a lot

more on Saturday. And I what is it?

I guess if he probably runs third, he probably gets a spot

in the Derby, right? That's right.

Yep, That's essentially how it works out.

So yeah, I'm, I'm rooting for that story at least.

Yeah, I want to get any L up here and meet him.

Yeah, that's a cool story for sure.

Brian Adele with us. You can also find this stuff at

Capital OTB on Twitter by the way as well for the one sheet

that they do. We always talk about gold book

bets on this show our tip sheet for free, but you can go get

that Capital OTB one as well at Capital OTB that Brian puts

together, really easy to follow. I have a texter has a question

for you. Do you give Ari's magic a shot

in the Cutler Bay? The six horse going to the turf?

A really, really good angle for Christophe Clemont.

Let me see here now. Ari's magic is, so that's.

The race that set is in, coming out of the maiden win, yeah.

Boy set was like ridiculous out of the Canada.

It's amazing. Wow, he was so good.

Well, here's the thing with that race, anybody can run second in

that race. So I think it's significant

twofold for Ari's magic. Kristoff's going to run him on

the turf. OK, that's just something right

there. And the other thing is he's

going to get a second turn to work with, and that could help

him a little bit too. He's got some tactical speed to

be close. I wasn't looking to beat set in

this spot. He's just way too good, at least

from what we saw. But again, another race where

the underneath horses are no great shakes at all.

So if Ari's magic, you can take to the turf.

LSU stables they have, they had, I think they don't have any

more. They had far Bridge.

He's a heck of a turf. Yeah.

And he's actually coming back Sunday.

Actually. He's with Calumet now, but they

had him and so they know what to do with a good turf force and

the horse and certainly Christoph does too.

So hey, if you're thinking underneath, I couldn't see him

winning the race, but he wants some prices underneath.

He will be one of them. Florida Derby tomorrow Force out

in all of the payouts on Sunday down at Gulfstream Park as well.

You'll see him on the simulcast. His name is Brian Nadeau at

Brian under score J under score Nadeau on Twitter.

Make sure you check him out there.

And of course at Capital OTB, Brian, Man, you are awesome and

I'm sure we'll catch up soon. Yeah, sounds good, Louis.

Enjoy the day and let's catch up soon.

Looking forward to it. Thank you.

Everybody good luck with those wagers.

All right, Brian Nadeau, there you go.

I I was. I was thinking about this last

night with and Mike Adolfo is in studio with all.

Kinds of great thoughts when you were with me.

It's true, especially with the the ball trimmers we have now.

So the look you and I texted yesterday about the status of

the Baffert Shippers to Arkansas with the horse racing rider for

the LA Times and it was a casual conversation.

And I remember standing at a parking lot with you at a now

defunct Catholic school and you said, hey bro, my usual Co host

for the Derby isn't available. Do you want to try it?

And now I'm doing this, Yeah. And and guys like Brian Nadeau

just jump on and do shows and hang out and it's, it's now.

It's cool. I am beyond blessed to get to do

this and it started with this jerk right across from me.

Well, you know, but I think we found that with most horse

racing people, they're pretty accessible, you know?

So do you know why? 'Cause no one ever asked them to

do this stuff. No one else I.

I look and I and I know there are people listening right now

that are like, OK, thank God the horse racing's done.

I want to be clear. I know there's those people.

Is there boxing? Talk next.

Now look, it's I, I want people to understand outside of Steve

Bink, who does a show every single day on SiriusXM, that's

just horse racing. I think this show does as much

horse racing as any normal sports talk radio show in the

country. Yeah, I think we do.

And I and I literally someone's like, I like how you sprinkle in

horse racing. I'm like, that's all I'm trying

to do. Doesn't need to be the whole,

the whole show, but it's Derby season, got 100 pipe.

Perhaps we're doing the damn thing.

And then we know how the happy hour's perceived by the industry

to you. So that's good.

People show up. The guilty pleasure, Matt.

Dinnerman was on last night. We did an Arkansas Derby preview

show. I'll talk with Kevin Kirstein on

the Kentucky Racing Spotlight tonight at 6:00.

Not a ton of previews there, but he does give his winners for

both the Arkansas Derby. He's at the Florida Derby in

Hallandale Beach currently. He's at Gulfstream parks for the

weekend. So there you go.

Must be nice, yeah. Yeah.

Do you think Pierce's is in every other?

That's a great. I mean, he's had great damn

question. Every other is what it's been.

It's been 2 like just terrible outings and then two outstanding

outings. So he's due?

If it is so, I don't know. I mean, just because I'm going

to talk Arkansas at 11:20, I will say I I think Conquest

Warrior's a more likely winner. And I I I totally disagree with

Brian about Hades. I agree.

I think Hades is a is a potential problem.

Brian More than any handicapper we've hung out with, once he has

an opinion, it doesn't matter if the horse proves him wrong, he

sticks his sticks with it. Yeah, he really does.

So there you go again. Our first hour of the show is

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Nulu and Saint Matthews alongside Mike Andolfo and a guy

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