Dan Issel Returns! | Keeneland

Life is good. Ah yes.

Welcome in another edition of the Horse Racing Happy Hour, a

Lexington edition of the Horse Racing Happy Hour.

So of course, if we're going to have a dreary, rainy Lexington

edition of the show, you have to go to the Goat.

His name is Dan Issel joins us here.

First appearance on The Happy Hour In a minute.

Dan Issel, how are you? I'm terrific, Lou.

How are you doing? Where's our Where's our man,

Gondolfo? All right, so I think you know

this about Mike Mike's a big wig with the pink jackets at the

Derby Festival. Oh yeah, yeah, yeah.

So tonight is Bourbonville. It's one of his events and so

it's insane. He got 18 distilleries to show

up, 75 bucks at the door, all you can eat, all you can drink.

Wow. I'm telling you, it's a legit,

legit offer. Here I am in my garage.

It is what it is. We went early and I got a bunch

of kids in my house, so just a little quieter out here, Dan.

No cigar though for you. How about that?

Yeah, yeah, I like that, even though I probably have a hard

time smelling it all the way in Denver.

It maybe I didn't want to risk it.

It's just what it is, you know. So his Dan Issel, he joins us

here on the horse racing happy hour.

If you've never found us on Twitter, you're welcome to go.

Find us for sure over on Twitter at horse happy hour ready to get

into replays. If Zach is ready to get into

replays. I was there on Saturday, Dan at

Keeneland to watch Sierra Leone take down the bluegrass.

We haven't had a bluegrass horse.

Win the Derby, win the bluegrass, haven't win the Derby

since 91. But boy, we got a nice a nice

performance out of a horse named Look, His name is Sierra Leone

and he's a a a serious a serious contender here.

So Zach, if we can pull up the Bluegrass from last weekend from

very far back in the pack to the front on a day when that just

wasn't happening. Center of the pack looking

toward the outside, 8 lengths to make up just over a quarter mile

to go top. Connor is the leader.

Epic ride swings wide just a touch between horses.

Door knock has to shift lanes along with Sierra Leone that

pair out in the center of the track still 5 lengths off the

lead as they move by the 8th pole just a touch has taken the

lead from top. Connor Sierra Leone is running

on from the outside. A 16th to go.

Sierra Leone comes forward with a lead and deep stretch and wins

the Toyota Bluegrass for tight. All right.

So Dan, one of the things that stood about the out about this

race to me that we get told isn't going to happen in the

Derby, but always happens in the Derby.

Oh, there's no rabbit in this field.

There's not going to be any speed.

Well, jockeys are people too, and they're going to overreact

and someone's going to want the lead and they're going to go 23

and 46, and that's going to happen right now.

Either you've got a horse that can just do that and go 110 and

winning these three years old, and that's fine.

And he can go the 10 furlongs to do it.

I don't know, fierceness, right. He's probably going to have to

do something like that. Sierra Leone's going to not do

that, right? He's going to be in the 20 horse

field. He's going to have to make his

own path. He's going to have to come off

off the pace there. Dan, I think of 10 furlongs.

He's absolutely a player here. What did you think of that

performance? I I thought it was excellent.

I I really did. As you referred to earlier,

Louis Keeneland the first weekend was a conveyor belt.

If if you weren't on the lead at the head of the stretch, it

didn't matter if you were four to five or 45 to one, if you

were on the lead at the head of the stretch, you were going to

win the race. Now it wasn't quite as as

adamant going two terms but still this horse came from out

of it. Great big strides if if you had

to pick the the performance apart.

I I don't like that he's trying to lay on horses exactly on the

inside. Now remember there was a huge

crowd there and and he he had the outside post and was very

reluctant to load. So maybe that was part of it.

But he's done this before. But I I I was very impressed

with the performance, the way he ran by those horses in the

stretch and when he gets to the lead his ears just go up and

they start going back and forth. Which tells me that Tyler had a

whole lot more horse than that. And he, you know it right now.

He's my Derby horse, Lou. Oh.

OK, there you go. Well, that's not a Brad Cox

horse, so that's a big statement from Dan Isle.

That's a joke. But look I I caught up with

Tyler right after the race day or actually actually after the

finale which he also won. And I and I made the joke

question are you going to ride domestic products or Sierra

Leone in the in the Derby? He made the the diplomatic

answer of I'll let Chad decide there.

But I I think we know. Does that add a dimension at all

for you? I I interviewed Tyler a couple

weeks ago on the Kentucky racing spotlight.

He's 29. I feel like he's he's right on

the precipice of the very best years of his career as a jockey,

getting into his 30s, more comfortable places.

And I say that about him, Dan. And he's won like 308 Churchill

Downs riding titles in a row. So it's not like he's not

already at a very great spot in his career.

But Tyler's experience at Churchill?

Does that matter to you in the Derby?

Absolutely. And I'll tell you what, not only

that Luke, but he, you know, we talk when we talk about the Gray

jockeys, You know, we talk about the Ortiz brothers.

We talk about Rosario, we talk about Saez.

He is, in my estimation, Tyler is as good as that as those

riders are. And if he rode in New York on a

regular basis, I I think, you know, he'd be in, he'd be

thought of in that same class. But I I love Tyler.

I think that his familiarity with Churchill Downs will do

nothing but help this horse. I agree with you.

And so an impressive rally from the back of the pack.

Let's head out to NYC. Head out to Aqueduct for the

Wood Memorial A, a name that we all know very well.

The horse racing circles on the training side ends up with the

win here in resilience And so let's go ahead Zach.

Head out to Long Island and play the Wood Memorial Stretch here.

Detective from the back of the field.

They're all making a charge for the lead.

Lonesome boy. We'll have the lead here with

resilience. And now resilience presses on

and resilience is quickly up by 2-3 widening lengths.

Society man is in the clear. Oh we had a spill their

deposition. Clipped heels and went down.

It was resilience who's opening up is up by 2 1/2 three lengths.

Society man down towards the inside.

Protective resilience is drifting out its resilience.

Who's clear is up by three lengths.

Now resilience will win the In the Woods Society man's second

protective lonesome boy is going to finish 4th.

Worth mentioning in the spill there in the back of the field.

Dan that the horse did get up under his own power appears to

be OK, as is the jock. So worth mentioning there,

appreciate. I actually appreciate Chris

Griffin, the track announcer at Aqueduct, mentioning that

because it wasn't on screen, it wasn't something that he had to

mention but still mention it. There's no reason not to be

transparent. Horses fall during races.

It happens. Resilience wins here, Dan and

I'm going to, I'm going to frame it with a couple of different

notes here. We haven't had a wood winner

come in and win the Derby since Fusa Ichi Pekka since in 2000.

It's been a long time, OK And trainers are not taking their

best 3 year olds recently on the wood path toward the Kentucky

Derby. They're just not I I think

they're using it right. You know, Brad Cox has horses up

there, certainly you know with Bill Maude obviously in this

case. But with a horse like

Resilience, he wins over two turns at Aqueduct.

We saw Sierra Leone in this last race.

He came out of that Remsen in December Dan and then went on.

He's won two Derby prep since then.

We can laugh, but domestic product finished 7th in that

Remsen won the Tampa Bay Derby, door knock, came back.

He has won a Derby prep since then, just ran in the Bluegrass

as well. Is there any chance that

actually whatever is set up at Aqueduct this year, Dan, will

translate better to the Derby just because these horses have

been coming out so well? I don't think so.

OK, Louis, when you look at the five major preps and I'm talking

about the three we're going to discuss today, plus Louisiana

Derby and the Arkansas Derby. This in my mind was the least

impressive Derby prep, big Derby prep, 100 point Derby prep race

that we that we saw. I mean the the horse that

finished second was 99 to one I believe and so deterministic who

was the favorite Clemont's horse didn't run a step.

I I just, I didn't like this race at all and therefore I

don't like any of the contenders coming out of this race.

Oh, there you go. And we might go a full quarter

century then between Wood Memorial winners in the Kentucky

Derby, the Wood Memorial, a very historic race.

They just ran the 99th edition of it.

And so I'm sure at some point, Dan, we will get a winner.

If we can get two guys, we can get a first place and a second

place finish out of the Jeff Ruby Stakes.

I'm sure at some point the Wood Memorial winner will show up and

do just fine at Churchill Downs. But in the starting gate is

resilience. And so we will see him first

Saturday in May. Obviously the connections there,

Bill Mott, John Velasquez and Bill Mott of course, if you

don't remember, was the recipient of the greatest.

All right, I should say the greatest, but the most famous DQ

in racing history with maximum security, the 22 minute delay

until we got Country House and so that.

Was the last missus. Missus Issel would agree with

that 'cause she had $20 across the country house.

She got back three 3600, I believe.

Good Lord. All right, well, let's go on to

the last race. We will get into the other Derby

runners. You didn't mention the Florida

Derby, but I'm sure you consider it a major prep, obviously.

And so we'll talk about fierceness when we get to it.

But let's go to the last prep from this last weekend, and that

was out West at what is one of the absolute major preps,

especially in recent Derby history, which is the Santa

Anita Derby stronghold. In this one, let's let's watch

imagination making his move past the quarter pole.

EJ won the Cup running a good race on the outside.

Tapilo is down at the Rail and Stronghold, one from the

outside, A driving finish Stronghold.

Burst. Through between horses that is

up to take the lead at the furlong pole.

Imagination trying to match strides with him and EJ won the

cup in 3rd. It's imagination and stronghold.

Nose and nose in the Santa Anita Derby stronghold.

Chest in front and stronghold prevails under end 14998 in that

one. So essentially A-150.

We're seeing a lot of that Dan in the Mile and an eighth races.

Seen a ton of great horses over the years.

Come out of the Santa Anita Derby Dan.

I don't need to list them off. I remember in 2016 I thought the

top three in that race between Nyquist, Exaggerator and

Whitmore was just the best three ever.

And by the way, I wasn't wrong. Nyquist wins the Derby.

Whitmore goes on to absolutely a Hall of Fame career.

Exaggerator wins the Preakness. So we've seen great horses come

out of the Santa Anita Derby. Are you ready for a little fun

fact about Stronghold Dan? Sure.

He broke his maiden. Do you know where he broke his

maiden? I do not.

Churchill Downs on October 1st last year, Do you know who ran

second in that race? Is a horse that won the Wood

Memorial named Resilience. Do you know who else was third

in that race? Was Track Phantom, who will be

in the starting game for the Kentucky Derby.

So the October 1st, 7th race at Churchill Downs will give us 3

starters in the Kentucky Derby race.

When we tell you to pay attention in the September meet

at at at Churchill and then in October at Keeneland, this is

what we're talking about. 3 starters out of 1 maiden race at

Churchill Downs. The thing I liked about this Dan

and I'm not going to get too excited about the time or the

speed or the fight and the stretch.

He had to push his way between two horses to make a path there.

I like that a lot from three-year olds.

What's? Says Danis.

Yeah, no, I and you, you stole my Thunder.

Because that was the exact point I was going to make.

He came, he came through a hole. Which really if you're able to

do that Derby day that's very helpful.

Louis and and I like the way that he he fought with with

Bafford's horse and and came out on top.

I I can't say he would be in my top three but he he certainly is

a contender. He is not without a chance.

So we've gone through, you know Stronghold now fourth in the

points resilience 5th because of those 100 point races.

Dan other horses that won those kinds of races are going to be

endlessly at Turfway Park. You know, a little bit of a, you

know, push back and forth between Mike McCarthy and the

ownership about running in the Derby.

Feels like the ownership wants to.

Mike McCarthy is very convinced he's a turf horse.

I'm always of the opinion, try the Derby and if your horse is a

turf horse, go figure it out later on.

Forever Young is a Japanese trained horse here.

Dan who wins the UAE Derby, wins the Saudi Derby.

Before that I I remember being a Breeders' Cup with you in

November out at Santa Anita. We talked about you know the

eventuality essentially of a a Japanese horse winning the

Kentucky Derby. Is this possibly the year do we

think of this as an all time great Derby field?

Is a horse like Forever Young? Got a shot here?

I think so. You know you he's undefeated.

He's won. I I don't know who he's run

against Lou, but that's not his fault.

I mean he he's got to the wire 1st every time they put him in

the starting gate and if you look at that Madonna it it

looked like to me the horse has trouble with kickback and so

they had him out wide the whole UAE Derby and and that was not

the place to be on that on that day on that track and he still

he still came in and and and did his job.

So if if they can get him used to the kickback because if you

can't take kickback you can't win the Kentucky Derby.

But if they used to that and can put him behind horses, yeah, I

think he's got a shot. The horse that we haven't

mentioned in the prep that you did not mention is the Florida

Derby Fierceness wins that race. Dan, you and I were there in LA

when he won the Breeders Cup. Juvenile comes back at

Gulfstream First off the layoff doesn't look great, comes back

in the Florida Derby, looks like the fierceness that we know he

can be. You and I would be handicapped

together a lot of times. I'll talk about every other

types. Fierceness unfortunately fits

into that every other type and this would be the off race in

the Derby. Look connections here, Dan.

All of it makes sense. Jockey, Pletcher, you know

Rapoli, all of it makes sense for this horse to be able to

compete at the highest level. All of the resources, all of the

you know, the breeding, everything.

Where does Danis will fall in fiercest?

Is this one you can trust on the 1st Saturday May?

You know, going back to that Breeders' Cup day I I seem to

think that one of us cashed a pick a pick five ticket, which I

can't remember which one of us that was Lou.

But but I I don't trust the horse.

It it seems like to me, if everything goes perfectly, he is

awesome. He is awesome when things don't

go his way. What was it the holy bull that

he got bumped up a little bit at the beginning and didn't didn't

run a step and so I I can't trust the horse if I was if if

right now and and he might be the favorite you know a lot of

people he got off and 10 buyer flew in the Florida Derby that's

going to that's going to pull an awful lot of people to his to

his side. If I was playing Trifecta's

right now, I'd Chuck him. OK, catching Freedom is going to

be Brad Cox's top horse in the Derby.

Flavia and Pratt will ride wins. The Louisiana Derby that you

mentioned ran a decent third behind Sierra Leone and the

risen star. Do you think he's got a shot?

He's not my favorite Cox horse. I agree.

My favorite is the one who ran second in the bluegrass.

Yeah, just a touch. Yep.

That that colt, Louis has only had three starts and they've

thrown a lot at him very quickly and he he looks like a horse

that is on the rise. You know I'm you know I love

Brad and you know that that I I would like for him to win every

Kentucky Derby. But yeah, I mean, he's got a

chance, but I I think I can name three horses right now that I'd

rather have than than any of his.

You know, the interesting thing too, Dan, is I interviewed Brad

a couple weeks ago for the Spotlight show and he, he was

very, very transparent about the fact that yes, it's nice that

Mandaloon got the check for the Derby, but he wants to be there

when his horse crosses the line first, right?

And that's AI appreciated him just saying that because you

know, it's it's such a business of these guys saying, well,

yeah, he's training great and he's training great.

He looks great and she's great and she's doing this and this is

great and all these horses are great and all my owners love me

and and he didn't do that. He just, he just fell and he

said no, no, I want to be there when my horse crosses the finish

line first in the Kentucky Derby.

Absolutely. I mean how could you not any

trainer I think would feel that way.

I mean I'm I'm sure he's still cast his 10% of the winning

share but but you know anybody especially a guy that that grew

up A5 iron from Churchill Downs. Yeah that's right.

Want to go over there and and be and get the trophy on the on the

Cupol though. Dan Issel making a golf

reference during Masters week. If you listen to Issel and Louis

when it was on Masters week, I'm still doing the Keynes read like

that, Dan by the way. It's just a it's a ridiculous

thing but the endlessly is going to potentially be in this field.

Dan winner of the El Camino Real Derby at Golden Gate comes to

the turf way and wins for fun in the Jeff Ruby Stakes.

A reminder to everyone, 2 Phils won that race last year for fun.

Ran second in the Derby after doing all the work.

It's passed by Mage in the last eighth of a mile, the year

before Rich Strike wins the Derby.

Do you still have the turf way thing in your head where you

can't trust a horse, like endlessly Dan?

Or are we past that point? No, no, it's not that.

Here's why I trust him, Lou. If I had a three-year old that

had enough points to win the Kentucky Derby, he would be in

the starting gate if he was 2000 to 1.

So I can understand the owner wants to run in the Kentucky

Derby, but when the trainer says, you know, we we've worked

him on the dirt and it wasn't, it didn't go too well and and

$600,000 for the grass race is still a lot of money.

That's why I don't trust industry.

OK. Well, yeah.

Prior to that, by the way, Horse finished 1st in his first ever

run, which was a Sprint on the turf at Del Mar wins the Del Mar

Juvenile turf wins the Zuma Beach at Santa Anita runs in

that Breeders' Cup, Juvenile turf, 8th place in that one

comes back, like I mentioned in those two races as well.

I was a little, I was a little. I wasn't surprised at how well

he ran at Turfway, only that those surfaces at Golden Gate

and Turfway are so different. I know they're both listed as

synthetic, but they're very different.

And so I thought I was impressed that he was able to do that.

I like horses that can travel. I mean, he's one at Del Mar,

he's one at San Anitas, one at Golden Gaties, one at Turf Way.

I like a horse that can do that because Churchill around Derby

is not a normal horse track. It's just not, it's very busy.

It's very, there's a lot going on, right.

And so if a horse can travel and do those things, it's one that

I'm going to include in my tickets, just because, I mean,

if I get beaten by endlessly who's 5 for six lifetime, I'm

just going to feel like a moron. As Dad is a would say I'll.

Tell you what, if you whatever amount you're going to bet him

in the in the horizontal or vertical, sure, I'll take that

to the window for you. There you go.

Are we overlooking door knock because of one because of 1

performance? Yeah I I think I I think what

Danny found out Danny Gargan the trainer is that you know don't

don't try to make a horse do what he doesn't want to do and

in the Bluegrass he tried to raid him he didn't like the

kickback I don't think and in the post race comments from from

Danny were this horse won't get any kickback in the Derby which

tells me he's going to he's going to be on the go and and

that's the way he's run best I I'm still not crazy about him

but any any horse that's a full brother has his record and is a

full brother to the horse that you know I loved in the Derby

last year you can't discount him.

Is there a horse outside of the top ten of the points that Dan

Issel likes? Obviously just a touches at 9th.

I'll just give you the list so you don't have to look it up

West. Saratoga Just steal Wayne

Lucas's horse. Honor Marie with Beckman's

horse. The domestic product that we

mentioned one that winner, the Tampa Bay Derby Catalytic who

ran second in the Florida Derby behind fierceness.

I'm sure no one noticed because it took 7-8 minutes for him to

get there after after fierceness.

Obviously Deterministic, who you mentioned ran in the wood and

then society man. Another Gargan trained just ran

second in the wood at 99 to 1. Mystic Dam is 18th in the points

after winning in the slop in the southwest stakes.

And then TO password is Daisuke Takaya Nagi's, Excuse me, Takaya

Nagi's horse coming from the Fuku Rayu in Japan.

Any of those get Danissel going? Well, I I have to.

I have to give a shout out to West Saratoga.

Yeah. He's owned, he's owned by a guy

I know here in Colorado. He doesn't spend anything for

horses. I think this horse cost him

$11,000 and and and Harry has been we used to match up and run

against each other at old Arapahoe Park here in Denver and

so you know I'd love to see him if you see his silks.

The back of his silks is the Colorado State flag and so I'd

like him if if it comes up muddy, if it's an off track,

then you got to put Mystic Dan in your track.

I agree. I.

Agree. An awesome performance that he

had at Oak Lawn. And worth mentioning too, Brian

Hernandez junior is, is Kenny Mcpeak's top rider so he's going

to get the mount knows Churchill Downs.

And on top of that that move with him, with Mystic Dan in

that race is still 2024. It's up there for best ride of

the year. I mean he he's skimmed the rail

there at Oak Lawn like a like a champ.

So if he's Mystic dad, you talked about horses not wanting

kickback. That horse didn't care.

He was covered. They probably gained 3 lbs

During that race and didn't care.

So yeah, no, it's not. So I agree with you.

I think he's a must include on the bubble are horses that we're

going to talk about. Dan Hades is one of these that's

running in the Lexington on two weeks rest.

They're obviously trying to get in the Kentucky Derby.

As a horse player. I love that.

I just want, I want these guys to run their horses.

So I'm. I'm very thankful that Hades is

making the trip for trainer Joe Arsenio and then you know no

more time is in the field with 45 points currently.

Encino is Brad Cox's other trainee here that's running.

Liberal arts will be in this race as well.

They'll only essentially move up the also eligibles list, which

in recent years in the Kentucky Derby, Matt, you were running,

so you know, so that's a a good place to be.

Is it 21st or 22nd? What do you think?

You know, we'll get to the Lexington in a minute.

If Hayes gets in and has to run essentially 3 times in five

weeks, is that just too much for the Derby?

Absolutely. And and I don't know, I mean,

here's another horse. He looks like a need need the

lead to me. Although in his in his maiden

race which was for Florida breads but against $50,000

claimers if you weren't a Florida bread he did come from

off the pace. The other two, the Holy bull, I

mean he walked them in the holy bull.

They went in 25 and 50 in a piece.

He got absolutely destroyed when he couldn't make the lead in the

Florida Derby. I you're absolutely right there.

I mean, they're just they're they're running in the Lexington

with an outside chance of getting a free box on Derby day.

Oh, there you go. We will get into more Derby

horses as we go this month. A reminder for people listening

if Hades wins, he's in the field.

No more time would move to the also eligibles.

If he does not win, no more time is on the list of horses

automatically in the field. They will run if they're

healthy. If Encino wins, he moves into

the first spot on the also eligible list.

Liberal Arts can firmly move into the second spot on the AE

list if he wins this weekend as well.

Dan, Are you ready for I? I don't.

I don't. There's no good way to

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That's all I need. There you go.

Well, let's move on to the handicapping section of the

show. I like to do this with Dan

because I know he appreciates it.

On a random Saturday in in in Lexington, they're going to run

a late pick five with two non stakes with $1.54 million in the

purses. Dan.

Yeah, I was a little disappointed that you'd use the

second race as part of the handicapping.

Why is that? Because there's a horse in there

owned by Arapaho Thoroughbreds. Oh man, who owns Arapaho

Thoroughbreds? I can't even see who.

Who are these people? Dan got useful.

How about that? We will get to that one in a

minute here. That's a definite play against,

by the way, people, whatever Dan's got in the races, I mean,

it is what it is. But we'll start with the Giants

Causeway race Seven starts with the late pick five.

There at Keeneland it's grade 3/5 and 1/2 for a long Sprint on

the turf here. Dan Phillies and Mares 3 and up

300K in the Kitty. It's like a grade one in

California. Who you got?

Yeah, I I'm going to go with the 8 Roses for Deborah.

I you know if you look at her at her pee pees she, you know she

was undefeated on on the grass last year until she started

running against the boys. She ran against the boys at

parks in the Turk monster and I can I remember watching that

race, Louie that track had no bottom to it.

It was a complete bog. And then she comes back against

the cold. Now remember, she's only a four

year old at that point and she's had some time off.

Her works look good. This is straight Phillies and

mayors, so you get Irad and Christophe Clemont.

I went with the 8 Roses for Deborah.

I think the four over here is really interesting.

Jared Loveberry coming in to ride this one ran last going a

mile and a 16th. Getting back to a distance,

she's much more comfortable at 4 for seven lifetime sometimes and

just that speed, she's going to come from a little bit off the

pace. It's raining here today, it's

going to rain into tomorrow and I think we're going to have

somewhere between good and soft go at Keeneland on Saturday.

What would you guess, by the way, if we're just forecasting

ahead, they'll keep the great at stakes on the turf, yeah.

Yeah, yeah, they I mean it's a fourth.

It's the 14 day meet now they'll take.

They'll take the allowance races off like they did today and like

did yesterday. But no, a greatest stake.

Tomorrow's the makers mar grade one.

It'll definitely those graded stakes will stay on.

They don't. They don't want a grade one to

wind up having four horses in it.

So Giants Causeway will be race 7 on Saturday.

Do you like anyone else in there?

Maybe like a A play the music come out out of Tampa ran a 55

and 4 / 4 furlongs last time out gets Jose Ortiz in the mount

Maybe a bling here. Is this a A spread race or do

you feel pretty good about roses for Deborah?

No, you have. You have to use Use some other

ones. Elm Dr., although the horses

coming from California have have just not done much at Keeneland.

And I don't think deep soft go at Keeneland's going to be good

for California horse. It's and it's a soft Keeneland's

turf course drains very well, so if it stops raining here in the

next, you know, 12 hours, I I think it'll still be OK.

It won't be bottomless, that's for sure.

Sure, sure, sure. You have to look at, I think you

know, you always have to look at Ward's horses and this, the 12

horse love Raines is 2 for three on the turf at Keeneland.

So you know, she's not without a chance either.

Yeah, Love Reigns was one that he took to ask it as a as a 2

year old as well and so obviously a horse that he

thought a lot of. A daughter of U.S.

Navy flag, a sire that I know very very little about.

How about that optional claimer coming up in race eight start of

the pick $400,000 claim price 130,000 in the purse mile and a

16th on the dirt 4 and up for non 3 lifers.

Dan, pick a horse that isn't yours.

You know what? They ought to be embarrassed

that that they're running, that this group of horses is running

for $130,000. They're almost every horse in

this race. Lou got beat double digits last

time, yeah. Terrible.

Yeah, right. Incredible.

I you know, I finally landed on the one and and that is because

if you throw his last race out, the dust Commander which was on

the synthetic and his first race since last August, he's as

competitive as anybody in this field.

Lobo had a pretty decent meet at Turfway and you know XOX equine

has spent an awful lot of money on horses, so I went with the

two transect. OK.

Yeah. Two transect on top here.

Which is your horse in here, Dan?

No, no, no, we're not here. We're in the second race.

Oh, the second race. I'm sorry.

I thought you said the second race of the of the sequence.

I'm sorry. So your your girl.

Your girl say Benny's running on on Saturday.

How about that? Yeah, yeah, and.

And here's something interesting that has nothing to do with

anything or Danny Hurley got his.

Now, we didn't name her 'cause we claimed her.

And so Michael Dub and a couple of other New York guys named

her. But before Danny Hurley got his

first college job at Wagner, he coached for nine years at Saint

Benedict's Prep. There you go.

Nice connection to the national championship.

Were you surprised he turned down the Kentucky job?

No. OK.

No, You know, I think there there are too many people.

If if Cal and his swagger and his personality couldn't handle

the pressure, I think a lot of people are looking at this job,

Mitch might have a hard time finding somebody to take this

position. There you go.

Classic catch coming back out of the hill.

The grade two at Aqueduct in November.

They tried him on the turf and he hated it before that.

Ran really well in the Jockey Club Derby Invitational at

Aqueduct. That Belmont meet up there as

well before that one. An optional claimer at Saratoga.

He'll be the favorite in that race going in certainly the

connections there. Pletcher and I read the the look

I mean I know the Lexington gets the the billing but the best day

the the best race of the day is going to be the Jenny.

While it's a great one going to mile on the 16th on the turf.

Phillies Emir's four and up $600,000 on the line here.

Some names Dan for sure that people know if they if they

follow horse racing especially American turf racing.

Fluffy Socks is in here. Gina Romantica, Surge capacity,

Didia all in here. People don't understand and we

keep doing this. Diddy is not the morning line

favorite and all she does outside of the Breeders Cup is

show up in exactly these kinds of spots.

She's the 9 horse here. Jose Ortiz, because he's moving

his tack to Kentucky. And I talked to him right before

I talked to you on at our Turfway show a couple weeks ago.

He's on. He's in a different zone right

now, Dan. He is just riding his absolute

mother bleep and head off right now.

Where did you land in this one? I'm on Diddy, I'm not going to

lie. Yeah, now you know.

This was really tough. I mean, if you're played, pick

five, This is a spread race for sure.

Lou, you've got her. You've got all of Chad Brown,

everyone of Chad's brown horses, all of his horses are here in

this. Race here.

Here's. Who I and and maybe I'm well, I

am, but anyway, I I think I went with English Rose.

OK, sure. Oh, Charles Appleby has has won

many graded races sending horses over here from Europe.

This horse is a neck away from being undefeated.

She's by Frankel out of a Dubal, a mare.

I mean, it just the breeding doesn't get any better than

that. William Buick will be here

tomorrow to ride one of Applebee's horses in the in the

Maker's Mark and he's sticking around to ride this Philly and

so but I I don't know. You could put them all in a hat

and pick one but it. But since I can't do that I'm

going to have to say English Rose is my pick.

Yeah, it's interesting 3. Times out of her four runs she's

run on on what's listed as good overseas, which actually might

actually pre near firm frankly where they've watered the course

at Maidan and then at Kempton and Newmarket before that.

Look, Charlie Appleby doesn't miss very often.

He's 5 for eight last time, the last eight times running a horse

in North America for the first time.

He wins at 29% in graded stakes, doesn't fly in Bill Buick for no

reason. You're exactly right.

And so this is a good dolphin home bred with just an

absolutely royal line here, Cheetah Romantica.

In this race, a lot of closing is going to happen here,

including Gina Romantica. Is there anyone that might get

out front, stay out front in this race, Dan?

You know that. On the lead.

On the Unlike the dirt on the lead on the grass course really

hadn't been the place to be. So I don't think anybody will

walk the dog in this race. There's just too many too many

good good horses in this race. I mean you know Gina Romantica

way, you can't look at all the grade ones pee pee.

I mean you can't knock her. She's won a million two.

And isn't it interesting that with the Ortiz brothers and and

Rosario Tyler Gafflione is kind of Chad Brown's go to guy, which

I I find very interesting. I'll answer the.

Question for you. I think they're going to try to

get walkathon on the from the lead of this race.

By the way ran second by a neck in the the Honey Fox won the

endeavour before that a tamp. I think that'll be your horse on

the lead, not an especially fast horse.

So I think we'll see those classic mile in a 16th Keeneland

25 and 49 kind of splits coming down the back stretch of

Keeneland. Let's move on then to race 10.

It is the Lexington, the last Derby prep of the year, 20

points on the line. Like we mentioned earlier, if he

wins, Hades is in the field. If Encino wins, he's the first

eligible. Liberal arts move solidly into

the Oslo eligible list as well with a win $400,000 on the line

mile and a 16th on the dirt for three-year olds.

Dan, the wine steward off a massive layoff here feels like a

play for the Preakness for him. Do you think any of those three

horses I mentioned with real Derby qualification

possibilities could win here? The.

One that you mentioned with Derby possibilities that can win

here in my mind is Encino. Now you look at the breeding.

I know he his first three starts were at Turfway, which would

make you think he was kind of a second Stringer or third

Stringer for Brad. But his buyers have continued to

go up in three starts. He's by Nyquist out of a

Bernardini mayor which means to me he doesn't need.

I mean that that pedigree works on dirt as well as it works on

the fit synthetic. Alex Concepcion is a nice jockey

but he's not for Lauren Giroux who climbs more now.

So of the of of the horses that have a chance to to be in the

Derby. I I would say in Encino.

I don't know what to make of the wine.

Stewart. I mean those he broke his maiden

in a New York bread on a a steak at Ellis.

He won a New York bread steak and then just got beat half a

length by locked in the in the Breeders futurity at Keeneland

last fall. He he kind of wondered Lou.

I mean his last race was in December.

No, October 1st he did not go to the Breeders Cup and and here

he's making his first start of the year on the on the 13th of

of April. I I don't know.

I'd I'd toss the wine, Stewart do.

You like the horse on the outside?

His name is Lucky Jeremy. I think I'll put him on top.

I know Billy Moore is really known for his turfway wins, but

this horse ran third by 2 1/2 lengths to Stronghold.

And Stronghold just won the Santa Anita Derby.

Yet at Santa Anita. Any chance that it's Lucky

Jeremy that picks this one off? Sure.

You know, like I like I said I I is Hades, the morning line

favorite. I don't.

He's 7:00 to 2:00. I think he's not, no.

The wine Stewart's 5 to 2 Stewart is.

Haiti is 7 to two. I don't like him.

Liberal arts is 4 to one. I don't.

I don't like him. So, yeah, lucky Jeremy's got a

shot. And I think the only other

horses we have to ask about here, let's go to footprint.

I never know, Dan what to do with Kenny Mcpee Horses.

Whenever I fade them they win. And whenever I I I bet them they

don't win. This is a horse that's been very

close, three straight races and optional claimers.

And then in the rush away at Turfway.

Do you give footprint much of a shot here?

Yeah, I hope so. I love.

Dialed in, I've got a dial, got a dialed in two year old.

So like, like I said, I think this race is is wide open just

like just like the prior race. And the fact that I don't like

some of the shorter priced horses makes me think I could

get a price in here. All right.

Well, they'll close. Out the car with an allowance.

It is technically scheduled for the turf.

Dan and I are both guessing this one will be off.

It is an allowance for three-year olds, non 2 lifers

mile and a 16th on the turf course there.

Dan 110K and the Kitty for this one.

If it is on the turf who did you land on?

I. I landed on the same horse turf

or no turf and that's the nine horse moonlight it he.

I think the track will. The dirt track will be fast.

Look at his last three starts, Louie.

Sloppy, muddy, sloppy. And then you go over to look at

his wet number on the daily racing form 296, which is

pitiful. I mean, that means his breeding

would lead you to believe he can't stand up on a wet track.

He gets Lasix for the very first time.

He gets Irad Ortiz, and so turf or no turf, I'm on moonlight.

His one win? On Dirt was on dry dirt at

Aqueduct in a Maiden special back in September against Not In

A New York bred race. I'll put it that way.

How about that? You know bunch of also eligibles

in this one and I think it's something we need to watch just

because once in a while someone will draw in off the AE list

that's good on dirt and that could be the 15 one.

Red cent. Just a heads up ran in the

Kentucky Jockey Club back in November, 1st race back this

year but did rate break his maiden at 6 1/2 Furlongs tried

him in that race. Let's see if he can get the

distance here man. I Dan, I just don't know.

I think incinerator could be interesting if they're off the

turf. Ran second last time in Tampa

could be one that gets the two turns and is just fine.

But I think royal majesty in here as well.

Junior Alvarado in for the day on the ride for Belmont ran in

that Colonel Liam at Gulfstream last time.

A lot of traders now, Dan, using these allowances in Kentucky

almost like listed stakes right because there's so much money in

the pools and so I think that horse coming out of the the win

in the championship meet as a maiden at Eagle Street Park

comes back in that Colonel Liam. The listed stakes there runs 5th

but only three and three quarters lengths back of a

couple of north horses. Cujito came back well as well.

Go ahead. No, I you.

You're if, it stays on. If it stays on, correct.

He and by. Frankel out of a smart strike,

Mayor. I, I he's.

He won't run on the dirt, but if it stays on the turf,

Absolutely. Well, there you go.

All right. Dan, well, do you have Derby

plans? Are you watching in your

basement in Colorado? I'm watching.

I won't be in my basement Sherry for for special days like the

Derby. Sherry lets me come upstairs.

Should they move the Derby? To Keeland?

No, no. No, so is down his lawsuit.

You think we could see some bafford horses in the in the

Derby? Do we need to?

Remind people this happened in the 80s and we got a 21 horse

starting gate. I mean this has happened before.

It isn't some zero chance. I mean that's what's wild is

because the the counter argument from Churchill is, oh, then

you're going to take someone else's spot and and then the

judge could just like great run 21.

I don't care, 'cause frankly there's no, there's no top limit

to the number of horses you can run in a race, right?

I mean like we see 25 horse fields at Ascot well.

How many horses did they have? I was there for the 100th

running. I can't remember how many.

They had a they had a bunch of horses in that one.

That would have been 1974. Yes, it was.

I let me look, I don't know the answer to that.

The 1974 Derby did it to do they ran 23 horses in that race.

I thought I. Thought so, I think that's the.

Solution by the way is the judge just comes in and says that's

muth is horse #21 you got to start 21 but you get to start.

You know, I I've never. Been in in Baffert's corner on

this deal but the fact that he that he and Zidan dropped all of

their lawsuits and and I thought this was the best argument in

this whole thing that I've heard.

Louis and that was when Zadon said his he he was ruled off for

two years and I and I spent $2,000,000 on mute last year

thinking that he could run in the Kentucky Derby and so to me

that's a pretty good argument. I agree it's the best.

Argument that I've heard from them to this point.

It's not like, Oh no, we just rubbed it on his ass.

We didn't inject it in his ass. Like, it's not that, right?

It's not any of this. No, we use the drug, just not

how you're talking about. It's not that, right?

This is. Hey, man, I made plans.

I made business plans based on public statements by a company

and then they they didn't go, you know, that's neither here

nor there. All right, well, he is Dan

Issel. I'm Louis Robot.

Zach, go ahead and play the music.

We will get out of here. Another edition of of the horse

racing happy hour. Am I not even going to see you

at Keeneland this year? Dan is, are we doing this again?

I'm, I'm going. To be in Keeneland The last

week. Last week.

OK, all right. OK.

I'm either. Yeah, well you should just stick

around for Derby week. Then I'm just not even in that

much time. What are we doing?

I'll give you. I'll give.

You Zach's credential. You can come for the first

couple days. How about that?

There you go. Well, there you go.

How's that, Zach? You like that Tanis?

Could be Zach Zader. For three days.

How about that? All right.

Well, a reminder for those of you still listening, Tuesday of

Derby Week, we will have our annual seminar.

It's at Blind Squirrel this year.

No cover charge. So get in there, have a couple

beers with the happy hour guys. And then the Friday before

Preakness, we'll be at Jimmy Seafood in Baltimore doing a

seminar there as well. Do not know all of the details

yet for that one, but Black Eyed Susan evening, we will be in

Baltimore doing a seminar at Jimmy's Seafood.

Excited about both of those as well.

Don't forget manscapemanscape.com.

Use our promo code HORSE RACING to get 20% off and free shipping

on your order. We will get Dan's face all

cleaned up as well. All right, I'm Louie Rubio.

Dan Thisel hanging out as producer.

Zach, Go ahead and play us out buddy.

This has been the horse racing on Happy Hour.