2024 Derby 150 Draft LIVE!

you. All right welcome to the horse

racing happy hour. Let's go. One

of my favorite shows that is NFL Draft Day which

means for us, it is Derby Drafters. Let's

go. Is this the third or fourth

year? We're and popularity every year.

It's so much so that we told

Dan Isley he couldn't come. He's

like, he just got kicked out. So,

see what it is. But we got a great group of

pickers today. I will be emceeing the draft

and I'm gonna explain the rules here in a second.

And I'll announce our celebrity

guest panels, not including Louie. And

yeah, so we're gonna do a snake draft. And

basically we're gonna go through 20 picks, so five

rounds. And it's gonna be fantastic. So

the first pick of the draft will be from Caitlin

Free and that's because she is a Reds fan. 100 % what

got me out of it. And then, you know, we've got

Steve Bernacchi drafting this year, so who will get

the second pick? And then of course Travis

Stone, who has nothing to do right now. Hope

you don't get on the draft. He's

like, oh, I got plenty of time. Plenty

of time, no issues. No issues. I

hate this. He's just now figuring out who's

in the derby for the first time. So

this is good prep work for him, right? Yeah,

right. And then Louie will be the

last picker. He gets the first pick of the

second round because we are doing a snake round.

Travis, seriously, what is the prep

work like right now, not just for the derby, but

just for the week? Every day, every night, we all

have events. For me and the derby, I wanna

know these horses. Like they're my best friends.

I've watched all their replays,

some of them multiple times, looked at photos of

them, studied them, asked questions. Just,

there's only two minutes to say what you gotta say,

and you gotta hope it's at the top of your brain. So

it's just about rinse and repeat now, you know? And

Travis, so Travis, that the track and elf are in

church with the Elms, if you didn't know that, I

guess I should have said that. Caitlin's

gonna probably be on the big screen in a church

with the Elms all over the place. So

Caitlin, how do you prepare for the week ahead? Well,

a lot of the same ways that Travis prepares for

it, except I'm not calling the race. I'm

just talking about the horses. I'm

doing as much as I can getting on the backside in

the mornings and in the afternoons. I've

gone to Keeneland as well. Just

wanted to talk to connections, whether it be

owners, trainers, jockeys, grooms, everyone that has

some type of affiliation with a horse. I

wanna know everything I can about these horses. I

wanna be able to share that with the betters and

obviously have that knowledge myself, stuff that

you can't read in a form, in a program, things such

as that. That's the type of thing that I

want to bring forward to the Derby, but just really

getting to know these horses and their

connections. Awesome. And then of course Steve

Bernagy will be part of NBC's coverage of the

Kentucky Derby. The Kentucky Derby is so much

about fashion. We've got a guy who's a little

fashion statement with khakis nonetheless, but will

you be wearing something other than khakis? Probably

not. I don't know if it's in my

contract, but it might be. How

do you prepare for the week ahead Steve? Yeah,

you know, a lot of what I do is we're trying to come

up with a couple of like statistical angles that, you

know, help the viewers maybe think about the race

a different way. The challenge obviously for us

is just, it's a super fun broadcast to be a part of,

but we realize too that a lot of the audience,

probably the majority that watches two minutes of

horse racing a year. So you gotta balance knowing

that there's people watching who are really into it,

understand it all. You know, you don't wanna be,

you wanna keep them interested, but you don't

wanna lose people who really, you know, are kind

of new to it. Yeah, and Louis, actually our

show's gonna change this week for that reason. Like

we know we've got listeners that don't normally listen,

maybe aren't as educated about horse racing. And

so we wanna make it approachable, like we wanna

help educate people about horse racing. So

Louis, we've got a busy week, right? Right,

it's kicking off. Everybody on this broadcast got a

differently busy week, but busy nonetheless. So

you wanna know, we have an edge on your preparation.

Yeah, so I'll be doing a bow

and co, 10 to noon Monday through Thursday next week.

Backside Monday through Wednesday,

we'll be in 322 starting on Thursday. And

then we'll do three hours of radio, 10 to one on

Friday, and then 11 to two on Derby Day itself. By

the way, we have the best job at Churchill Downs.

We're done working at two o

'clock on Derby Day. That's the key to life, there you

go. That's fantastic, it is fantastic.

So I'm really excited about

being out there. So it's gonna be a great

week. Love being on the backside.

There's nothing like backside Derby

week, it's the best in this. Yep.

All right, well let's get into it. So

let's get into the draft here. We're

gonna put our draft board on the screen. Zach,

I think, I'm gonna turn down Louis Mike, is what

I'm being asked to do. I got it. There

you go. It's still super, super high.

All right, there you go. All

right, well, I gotta make sure you rest your, there's

our draft board. So Caitlin, with the first, we

got our sounder there, Zach. Zach's

a little slow in the sound. Do

we have a draft sounder? We

got the, like the, the pick. Yeah,

the pick. I thought we had that one. I

could do this. Okay. How about that? The

first pick in the 2024 Derby draft, Caitlin Free

picks. Sierra Leone. Sierra

Leone, here it is. All right, so what else would

you love about Sierra Leone? Well,

between the two favorites, him and fierceness, I find

Sierra Leone to be a little bit more reliable

than fierceness. And I think that we have a

chance to get a very hot pace in this year's

Kentucky Derby. So I'm going to be looking

from horses that are going to be mid -packed and

coming from off the pace. Sierra

Leone has a chance to be last or pretty close to

last early on, which I don't love that part. If

you're going to try to look between horses that do

have a chance in this race, I'd say he's the

most likely horse to finish in the super fact that if

not when it. So I'll go with Sierra Leone.

All right, Travis Stone, you

like that pick? Why is that a good pick?

That's a good pick because he's

reliable. He always comes with a run.

It's not a good pick because

she even said it. He's going to be near the back

of the pack and there's going to be 19 horses

ahead of him that he has to negotiate. And

he's got this sort of a slow grinding stride that

takes a while to get going. To

win the Derby, you got to have push button speed. And

so for me, he's more of a horse to come on for

third, fourth, maybe second, most of the time. And,

but you know, he's one of the ones to beat for sure.

Louis? You know, Travis mentioned

it the other day, one of the reasons this is a good

pick is he's not going to have any issue getting the

10 furlongs. Right. Getting the mile in the

quarter is not going to be an issue for Sierra Leone

at all. We watched, I think, you know,

if we're looking for comparisons of how to win

the Derby with this horse, I think it's going to have

to be similar to say Orban 2013, getting into that

five, six pass, something like that, making his move

in the last three, 16th of a mile of Churchill Downs.

But like Travis said, he's

going to have to be closer to the pace to make that

kind of move. That was my first Derby cover

as a media member. There you go. It

was a good Derby. It was a good Derby. So

yeah, I agree. I look at them between the

two, fierceness and Sierra Leone. And

this is the only time I'm going to give my opinion.

Fierceness at the end of the day,

though, to me, like runs his race as he wins. And

Sierra Leone, I think, has to have more variables to

me to win. It's really up to fierceness

whether or not he wants to win or doesn't win. So

which, you know, Steve Kornacki, who are you going

to pick with the second pick? There

we go. A lot of suspense here. But

yeah, I was going to go Sierra Leone if it was

still available, but not so I will go with fierceness.

So you would have taken Sierra

Leone ahead of fierceness. So

tell us what you like about fierceness. Actually,

I kind of want to know why you would have taken

Sierra Leone first too. So now don't leave us hanging

there, I guess. Yeah, no. I

think, you know, Caitlin laid it out pretty well. I

mean, just the confidence level that, you know, I

would say it's more likely to me that Sierra Leone

is, you know, in the top three than fierceness. I

think fierceness is a boomer bust, you know, wins

it all. Or maybe finishes 20th kind of

horse. I think the range possible,

you know, finishing positions for Sierra Leone

is probably narrower. Although

I take the point 20 horse field, there's a variable

you don't usually deal with. So,

you know, yeah, I take the chance here that this is

one of those races who's to be on every other race

pattern. I guess that would worry me

a little bit about fierceness because this

would be the bad race coming up. But

certainly, yeah, I mean, I was looking at it. I

think the buyer speed edge, you take the top buyer

number for all the horses. I

think fierceness is 110. Mystic

Dan 101, Sierra Leone 98. And

I don't think there's been a gap that big. There's

only been one gap that big in like 20 years or

something. So I'll take the chance here

that fierceness does run in the race. Louis,

we saw one of the good fierceness performances when

we were out at San Anita for the Breeders Cup. What

do you think about fierceness? Look,

when you win the Florida Derby, you're a serious

contender with the Kentucky Derby, especially in the

modern era. This is one of the very best

predictors of winners. Obviously,

even the second place finisher last year in May

wins the race. Before that, you get a tis the

law. You get a maximum security. You

get an audible. You get an always dreaming, a

Nyquist or who we mentioned, a lot of great

horses have come out of winning the Florida Derby.

And when they do, they tend to

run well in the Kentucky Derby. Like

you said, Mike, if he runs that race back from the

Florida Derby, I think he's probably going to be

behind, say, a track phantom. Someone

like that sitting second, third position. I

think he's set up pretty well here. Yeah,

I do do. Caitlin, why is it a terrible pick?

What's fierceness a terrible pick?

I don't think it's a terrible

pick. I completely agree with what

Steve said. The problem is he's a boomer

bus type of a horse. And if you look at the cycle,

this race has a big chance to be a bus. And

just in a 20 horse starting gate, I worry

about this horse getting out of the gate. And

he seems like the type of horse that kind of needs

the best type of a trip. And

Travis talked about it when he and I were on a show

yesterday. The best way for this horse to

win is to do the American Faro or justify type of a

trip, be close to the pace, but be kind of

outside. So it's for me, fiercest

chances are really going to depend on where he draws

in the gate. There's not every horse is gate

draw dependent in the Derby. But

I think for a favorite to be gate draw dependent,

that's a problem for me. At

least we know that a fierceness does win the

Kentucky Derby, that his owner will be very subdued

and no one will even know that he's there. And

just kind of in the background kind of guy. I

interviewed quiet. I interviewed Brooks Smith

today. If Sierra Leone wins, that guy

might be like shirtless in the infield. I

mean, like, I don't know. Like

that. OK, go ahead. I

can see your reaction. Big fan of Brooke. I

talked to him a couple of days ago. I

discourse knows him. He rode on the van with this

horse over here. So he will go crazy if this

horse wins this race. I kind of need it. I

kind of need a dead heat with those two crazy guys.

Let's go. We

don't need the micropoly drama from last year. Let's

just put that. All right, Travis Stone, who is

the third pick in the draft? I

want to know the auditing company that put me in the

third slot, because I think the top two are pretty

tough. But I'm going to take I take

just a touch. All right, just a touch the

son of just a five right there. So

there you go. We'll have him talk to you. Go

ahead, Travis. I'll just touch. Yeah,

I mean, so I get it with the appeal of fierceness

and I get the appeal of Sierra Leone. Just

a touch, though, is the one horse with still

additional upside. The bluegrass pace, in my

opinion, was very sharp and he was right on top of

it. I know that this is a horse

the barn has been high on since way back when. And

it showed as much. They shipped him over to

Aqueduct to try and get some points in the Gotham.

And he also has that running

style. I think is underrated in a

race like the Derby that just off the pace with

some tactical speed. He might not be good enough

to win the Derby. This might be a little bit too

much for him too soon. But I think it's a very nice

horse. And I think he's that if I

were a public handicapper, you'd be my number one

pick, regardless of sort of questionable draft

positioning. Kailin, why do you like that pick?

I almost picked just a touch

over Sierra Leone. I'm not going to lie to you,

but I knew Travis really liked that horse as well.

And as a public handicapper,

I'm kind of dancing around this horse being my topic

as also. Oh, wow. All

right, Cornaki, why do you not like the pick? What's

not to like about just a touch? Well,

I hear I like the pick because I was a little

tempted to. And the upside is the reason

better of your race. But the reason not to just

from a betting standpoint, I think is this this horse

to me feels like it's going to be kind of the

wise guy pick. And I think you may end up

getting are going to be lower than you'd want. So

I just I mean, seeing, you know, Travis and Caitlin,

you know, kind of leaning in that direction, I think

indicates, you know, people who really follow this

stuff closely, I think are going to start seeing and

noticing the same things. And,

you know, that word gets out and I think it could

affect the the odds board. I

would say if you wanted to go negative on just to

touch, you would just say that he hasn't won his

preps, right? That he ran second in his preps

used to be that we really cared about undefeated three

year olds. If you wanted to, you know,

pick nits about this horse, I think that's where you

would go. It's actually though, got a lot

of mage feels to it. I was just going to say, if

you were trying to bet mage this year, it feels

like that. I mean, I would just to

touch. I totally agree. So

that when you, you know, you look at the horse is

not one of state traits, he has only one it's made

in and never race as a two year old. I

think that's the other knock. Of

course that that's been the smirk to you. So,

all right, Louie, pick number four. Oh,

do I get music's action? I wait for the doodoo doodoo

doodoo doodoo. I'll just go. All

right. So we'll go ahead, man, I, if

this were a normal year and I knew the horse was

going to run, I want to be clear. I

would pick endlessly in this spot. I'm

in love with the runners that have come out of the

Jeff Ruby stakes, but I am not going to pick endlessly

because I don't even know if they're going to keep

them in this field. So I'll take the other Brad

Cox. I'll take a catching freedom.

The winner of the Louisiana

Derby is going to come in off of that six week

layoff in the modern horse game, six weeks seems

pretty okay. Now wasn't grand okay in that

risen star. This will be third in the forum

cycle. I like him here in this

spot. I'll take Flavio and Pratt and

catching freedom in this spot. Wasn't

Louisiana Derby so slow that they just kind of

like just stopped it early and just like, you know

what I do like about that max time allowed is not

great conditions in a lot of those races. And

he ran it under the lights in both of those races in

Louisiana. Once you get to the Derby, it

is dusk. You're running under those lights.

He has that experience. Mylan

three sixteenths in the Louisiana Derby. I

think you can make a real case for catching freedom.

Okay. Uh, Steve, why do you like

that pick? Yeah, I think it's the the

distance is not going to be an issue. I

think exactly that style of kind of, you know, being

up there, but not, you know, not on the lead and

being ready. I think just to kind of

swoop in. Um, and I think I have this

in my head and I may be wrong on this, but it

might have been the fastest. Um,

one of the fastest final furlongs, you know, of any

of the horses coming into this. Um,

so I, you know, I, again, I think, yeah, if this, if

this pace gets, um, doesn't have to be sizzling, but

just did a pretty solid pace here. I

think that's, that's right up catching, uh, catching

freedom to alley. Uh, Travis, what do you not

like about catching freedom? Uh,

not much to be honest with you. Uh,

it's that running style, right? Where

he's going to be sort of far off the pace. A

lot of things have to go his way. The

difference between, in my opinion, catching freedom in

Sierra Leone, Sierra Leone is more of a needs to get

going lumbering, you know, wind it up type stride. If

you watch that replay of the losing of Derby

catching freedom had push button speed for Flavien on

the far turn with about three furlongs to go. He

brought himself right into the race and Flavien said,

no, no, no, not yet. Let's just wait a little bit. We

got a long stretch to go and then he tipped him out

and the horse just did whatever he needed to do.

That is such an asset in the

Derby to have that push button tactical speed that

a jockey needs, uh, uh, catching freedom is very

live. Uh, it's hard for me to

totally knock him aside from the running style. All

right. So, uh, Lou, you get to go

again. Yeah. Uh, this is my chance to

then go off the board. I will take the UAE Derby

winner here in forever young, uh, mostly just

because I'm of the opinion sooner rather than later.

And I know Caitlin will agree

with this part at least. I think we're going to have

a Japanese winner of the Kentucky Derby. And

I think that's just going to happen. And

so why not this year? Why not with an undefeated five

starts, five first over 2 million in career earnings?

Why not forever young

connections here? Obviously out of the ahagi barn

here. Interested to see how he travels. I

love the Japanese workouts and the fact that we're

just not used to them and we can't quite figure them

out as far as, oh, he went out in 150 and it's

like, what does that mean? But

I love, I love how the Japanese train. I

love their demeanor toward the sport. I

love all the things that are coming up. I

think it's a matter of time before we get one. I

think it's sooner rather than later. Why

not forever young? I'll take him. Kaylin,

you like that pick? I do. I

wanted that pick. I wasn't quite sure once it

got back to me if he would still be available or

not. So I had to take either

Sierra Leone or Fierce's first and kind of take

that chance. But it's going to be between

forever young and just the touches my public selection.

Forever young. I've

been a big fan of him since the beginning. I

picked Dermasota Gake last year. Didn't

get out of the gates that well. I

think forever young at this stage as a three year old

compared to Dermasota Gake is a much better force.

They've made some changes with this

course and he keeps improving with each and

every race. There's no question that he's going

to get the mile and a quarter distance. And

if any of the Japanese connections are going to

win the derby sooner or later, which they will,

it's going to be this trainer, Yoshida Yohagi.

He's very innovative. He

knows how to win grade one dirt races all over the

world. He won two Breeders Cups

several years back. So if anybody's going to get

the job done, I think it's probably going to be his

barn. All right, Kornaki, what do you

think? Yeah, I agree. Every

one of these years is probably sooner rather than

later. The Japanese horse is going to

come in and win it, but I will not have the horse.

Probably when that happens, I'm more

in the believe it when I see it camp. And

it's not so much the Japanese breeding and

everything. It's more the UAE derby, you

know, 0 for 18. And just the line that I

always remember when I think of the UAE horses is

when Mendelsen came out of there. And

you know, I think the estimated buyer was 106 or

something. And of course, didn't really

fire. And Ryan Moore, the jockey, his

line after that was he was talking about made in and

he said that track tells lies. And

I think of that with every horse that comes out of

there. All right, good deal. So

we're going to move on to Travis, so you now get the

next pick. All right. I'm

going to take. It's not very creative. I'm

going to take honor Marie. Yeah,

honor Marie. All right. That

was my other one. If I wow, that's funny. They

if I didn't go for every young I was going on a

Marie. Well, go and say what you like

it. No, no, Travis. Yeah,

sure. I mean, so he won. He's

won here at Churchill Downs. He's

got a similar running style to several of the main

contenders in here. I just feel like he's a

horse rounding into form at the right time. A

lot of times people get hung up on early season,

three -year -old form or late season, three -year -old

form. His numbers are going in the

right direction. And I think he's he's going to

get a good flow in the race. I

he's like these others, right? He's

like Sierra Leone. He's like catching freedom. He's

going to come from off, but he's going to have to

work out a trip. But by all accounts, he's doing

well. And it's sort of an up and

comer. And, you know, there's not a

lot of other types in here. I'd

be ready to sink my teeth into. And

so on Marie for me. Say what, with Beckman, a

graduate of Holy Trinity. Yep.

That's the cabinet school where I went to. There

you go. His brother lives up the street

from me. How about that? His

brother Beck was in my sister's class. I

like it because of the Churchill Downs part of

this. You know, that that Kentucky

Jockey Club has become a real important race in

November instant coffee last year. And

of course, year before that, you get smile happy

classic cause where you get white abario in the same

race. It turned into a great

predictor for three -year -old success, not necessarily

in the Kentucky dirty itself, but that doesn't

mean it can't. And so between Anna Marie and

West Saratoga, both horses that won preps in Churchill

Downs in the fall. Usually Mike, I watch the Urquay

winner and I think sell that horse. Yeah.

He's never going to make it to the derby. And

then good, good on Larry Demmer for getting him

there. And the same here with

Whitbackman. Great job with Anna Marie getting

him qualified. Caitlin, why do you not like that

big? Um, because he is the wise guy

buzz horse. I think he's more so the

wise guy worse than just a touch or catching freedom.

All right. I

really think it's on our Marie. And

I think you're going to get a very short price on

him more so than you would probably want. But

other than that, I can't knock it because he's done

everything right. Yeah. Local connections can do

that. Right. Well, price, but price

matters too for the derby, right? It

really does. All right. Uh,

Cornacchi, here's your next one. Um,

so I'm going to go with the, uh, Travis called Anna

Marie's win, uh, back in November and I'm going to

go with a horse he called two races before that in

November, just steel, um, D Wayne Lucas. Uh,

I'm a fan. Uh, I'd love to see him win,

but I also, uh, this is an interesting horse to me

because, um, it's the most experienced in the field.

Um, and, um, yeah, he has the

win in the Ed Brown at Churchill, six and a half

furlongs in the knock on him for a long time was

can't get the distance. And he had a, you know, a

couple of second place finishes there in Arkansas.

But then in the Arkansas derby,

he was finishing, he finished terrific. Um,

he was actually getting faster at scene as they

got closer to the wire, only lost out to Mooth. It

was by, you know, a couple, it was a solid win

for Mooth, but, um, I thought that was an eye

opening performance for just steel. The

buyer jumped, um, you know, from where he, you know,

he's feeling it here to be before. Um,

I like again, it's, you know, going to sit off the

pace, but not be as far back, I think, as some of

these others. And, um, I, I, the question of,

you know, can he get the distance? Um,

it's still a question, but I don't, I'm not as

doubtful as I was coming out of that Arkansas derby.

I think the price is going

to be huge. And by the way, if, um, if

just steel were to win the derby, it would be the

first time that a horse with this many starts prior

to the derby won it since. Charismatic

1999 D -Wing. At least four or five years

ago. So it's written in the stars.

I had that one. I

was there. I had it. All

that was great. And plus D -Wing was awesome

after he won the Oaks. I can only imagine what it'd

be like after he won the derby. It

was so awesome. And that blast conference. You

know what? Actually, that was one of the last

times Caitlin and I were in the same room. She

and I stood next to one another. I

don't know if she remembers, but we were

there together. Yeah. For the coach. I

mean, most women remember stand next to you. I

get it. I get it. It's

a problem. We are in Chet Mates, a

classic surgery. Yeah. And I don't know that we

mentioned Mates. Plastic surgery. We

did both. Yeah. Citation needed for that.

Citation needed. We're

actually the before picture. Yeah.

That's what Mike and I are the before picture. I

don't know. I walked in the lobby and

someone said, I want to look just like that. I

don't think that's what happened. That's

pretty much Travis. Why do you like that pick, by

the way? Just Steel was against the track

a few times this winter in Arkansas. So

his form is, is what us horse players called dirty.

Dump. It looks worse than he

actually was. In fact, a bunch of us were

on him last time purely because of that. And

he outran his odds and he ran well. He's

also got a running style that allows him to get

into the game early, which is always key. He

is very much so a live long shot. I

like that pick a lot. Louis,

why did you not like it? I

think just if you wanted to get back to it, just

crossing the line first in his prep races, he didn't

do that. I think that would be the

big thing. Also, Keith Asmos and keeping the

the mount here. A rookie in the Derby big

stage here. I worry about that as well.

Okay. All right. Kailin,

your second pick here. I'm going to end up going with

a couple of horses. I think of the forgotten

horses in this race. I'm going to go stronghold as

my first one, the winner of the Santa Anita Derby.

I think he's been completely

ignored. Do I think he's vast enough

to win this race? I don't know, probably not,

but he's taken a step forward with each and every

race. I have no questions that he's

going to be able to get the distance. So

I'll go with stronghold. I like it. So

let's see. I'm going to remember who's

turned is the talk. Steve, Steve, tell me why you

like that pick. Um, yeah, I looked, I looked

at him a little bit. You know, the Santa Anita Derby

performance, sort of found a seam there, you know,

between horses and, and, you know, got into that

stretch battle was, was, you know, um, was

resilient, you know, in, in that against the

imagination. And, um, you know, I think

showed something there. It has to be a little bit of

an upside here. Has to get a little bit

faster, I think. But, um, yeah, I mean, we're

now, we've gone through the obvious contenders at this

point. So we're getting into territory

here where there's, you know, there's going to be

flaws and they're going to be a bit of a reach. But,

um, yeah, I mean, uh, this is a Santa Anita Derby

winner, not a Bafford Santa Anita Derby winner, but

that's not for the bad route. No,

I think that part's right. By

the way, worth mentioning, and I know Travis called

this race as well, October 1st, 2023 race seven at

Churchill Downs was a maiden race. First

place, finisher, stronghold, second place, finisher

resilience who won the wood, third place, finisher,

track phantom. All three of those horses will

be in the Derby field when we tell you to pay

attention to maiden races in October, November, we

mean it. And that's a perfect example,

Travis. Yeah. Yeah. I

remember that race. And, uh, while the way first

one he is in Kentucky now, we've got good horse horses

coming here left and right all throughout the fall.

This is also, uh, he's just a

useful horse. And what he is, he's gritty.

He's gutsy. Uh,

he, you know, he can get into a dog fight and, and

gets on the right side of that dog fight in the end.

He just has to get faster.

Um, but he's a three year old.

They can do it. So

wouldn't shock me, but he wouldn't be high on my

list, but he's not impossible. Look,

six runs, three wins, three seconds. I

mean, people love imagination. Just,

sure. We just, just got the wins

out. Like Travis said, right? He's

just, he's just a gutty horse. That's

good. There's nothing wrong with that,

especially in a big field like Steve mentioned, makes

his own path in the Santa Anita Derby. That's

really attractive to me too. Okay.

All right. Let's go, uh, let's go on.

Caitlin, what's your next pick here?

Um, keeping with the same

theme. I think this is easily the

most forgotten horse in this race. So

that's going to be track phantom. Oh,

all right. Well, we've talked about track

them a lot already. So I think when people look

at track, I'm just kind of a little differently, right?

Like this is going to be the

horse that sets the pace and then she's going to

tail away. So why do you like them,

Caitlin? I don't think he's going to

be the one that sets the pace. I

think he's going to be very close to it. Um,

he's got a lot of experience and really other

than the last race, he's really not done much wrong.

Um, and although I don't love

it, I think it's interesting and very

unconventional for Steve to be adding the blinkers in

a race like the Derby. So that you're going to make

this horse way too fast and going to burn himself

out or he's going to be able to relax a little bit

more, which could be a good thing, but that's

enough of a variable. This horse is going to be a

monster price for the winning a trainer of all

time granted. He hasn't won a Derby yet,

but getting Joel Rosario aboard. If

he can get this horse close, but not too close,

well, as one of the bus finishers out there. So

I'm going to take track. Phantom.

And I think he's probably going to be like 30 or 40

to one. Travis, why do you like that pic?

Yeah, I just think, uh, as, as

time wears on, we sort of forget about who was good

three, four months ago. And remember who's good one

month ago. A track phantom at one point

was considered one of the major players in this

division. And I think Steve Asmussen is

a borderline mad genius or mad scientist, if you will,

when it comes to horse racing, I just, he's not

afraid to run his horses, all these other trainers,

they want to preserve these wind percentages and pick

these perfect spots throughout the calendar. He

runs them and he needs had success doing so, uh, a

huge workout over the track. Track

phantom is probably going to outrun his odds. Can

he go a month and a quarter? Can

he stay the course under the intense pressure of the

derby pace? Probably not. But

if you want to try, you're going to get big gods to

do so. Louie. Another horse that broke

his maiden at Churchill downs. And

again, if you wanted to knock him, it's the fourth

place finish in that Louisiana derby. It's

the second place finish in the risen star. Like

Travis said, man, went back to back, won the gun

runner, won that Lecombe stakes, both the fairgrounds

broke his maiden at Churchill downs. If

he returns to that kind of, uh, that kind of form,

he's the kind of horse that fails out your

trifecta for sure. As my son. All

right. Uh, Karnaki, who do you got?

That is, that is that Steve,

I'll say, is part of the Pimlico. That's

right. He looked very annoyed when we

came up said, Hey, and then we have, Hey, we're,

we're a couple idiots. That's

right. Steve's pick. Go

ahead. So I'm torn right now as I

prepare to give it to you. Cause

I could go in very different directions here.

I'm going to go with, I'm

going to take mystic Dan. Oh,

um, and two reasons. Um, one is I looked at these,

you know, long -term forecasts are meaningless,

but on a chance that there was rain, it's established

from the Southwest. Um, he just exploded on the

muddy surface. Uh, you know, at Oakland, it's

always muddy at Oakland, right? Um,

put up a triple digit buyer, you know, came up

the rail there, all that. So

look, if you, if you get rain or something, I'd want

to have them. So I'll take them for that

reason. Um, and also, yeah, I mean,

just that, you know, that style, I mean, to what

extent was the Southwest not just about the surface?

I mean, he showed something

that day, you know, coming, as I say, coming, you

know, off the pace, up the rail, 101 buyer, um, you

know, if this is a horse that, you know, is, is,

you know, work out a trip at all here and is not

just dependent on the surface, you know, he

showed something that day that, you know, could win

the Kentucky derby. All right, Louie. Why

do you like the big? I like that pick a lot,

frankly. Look, if you even look at the

Arkansas derby coming off that slop win, by the way,

that ride by Brian Hernandez Jr. to

skim up the rail in that race earlier on, under

Mystic Dan in the slop is just one of the best rides

of this year. Um, I, but, you know, Mooth

was so good on Arkansas derby day. I

think we forget about the other runners in that race

that didn't run poorly. They

just ran behind a juggernaut that day, uh,

under Juan Hernandez and Mooth. And

so no, I think he ran fine in the Arkansas derby.

Like he said, if it, if it,

that's what track Mystic Dan's an absolute must

include in any kind of pick by player. Caitlin,

why do you not like that pick? There's

really nothing I don't like about that pick. Honestly,

I was between him and track Phantom for mine. Um,

for the same reason Steve mentioned, I don't think

it's going to rain. I hope it doesn't rain. Um,

but I think even on that, uh, panic for you. Come

on, Caitlin, what's going on? There's

gotta be some places where I can go where it's dry,

but, um, I think even without rain, this horse is

still a player. All right. Um,

Travis, your third pick here. All

right. Um, we're, we're getting to the

nitty gritty. Uh, I'm going to take, yeah,

I'm going to take resilience. Nice.

All right. And, um, he came out of that

race at the fairgrounds earlier in the year that

has produced several next out winners. He

obviously came back to win the Wubba Morial. He

has to improve. He has to get better, but he

is doing just that numbers wise. And

I think of all the final round of major prep

winners, he's the one that's forgotten the most

and I think he's been offered some value. So

resilience for me. Um, Caitlin, you like that

pick? Yeah, I do. I

completely agree with everything Travis said. The

only problem is the one where it has been the

least productive, uh, Kentucky Derby prep. Uh,

Cornaki, why do you not like that pick? You

know, is it just because what Caitlin just said?

Yeah, exactly. I

mean, you know, you got to go back to more of the

days of like, uh, empire. You

know, it used to be a, um, a fantastic, um,

stepping stone to the Derby, but yeah, look

again, just considering we're in a draft here and

we're past, you know, the 10th position here. Yeah,

I'll take the winner. I would, I, if I were in

the spot here, I would take the winner of the

wood, given what's left on the, on the board here.

Let me defend the Wood Memorial

this year. We've talked about this. The

remson stakes man in December has been a great

predictor of horses coming out. We

got three starters in the Derby from that race alone,

including domestic product, obviously doorknock and

Sierra Leone. If, if the aqueduct surface for

some reason during this Belmont renovation is

different than it has been in past years and horses

are leaving there well, this might be the year

where we break that wood memorial streak. Um,

Louie, do you pick? I get two here. How

about that? Yeah. Um, I'm going to take

domestic product here just because he did win the,

uh, the, uh, and I get I read I learned right before

the show. So I'm definitely going to

take that, uh, as well. So I'll go ahead and take

domestic product, the winner of, uh, the Tampa Bay

Derby and that blanket finish for different horses.

Um, you know, I've talked to

Tyler a couple of times since that race. He

really likes that horse. He really thinks he's a

fighter, just scrappy horse. We're

down to the 12th pick here. So

I'll go ahead and I'll take domestic product here

coming out of both that Remson and then that win

in the Tampa Bay Derby. Steve,

why do you like that pick? Um,

I guess I'll be the first one to use this by saying

I don't, but I understand it. I

understand the logic. I didn't like that. I

didn't like that Tampa Bay Derby at all. Yeah.

I don't think the horse has shown, you know, he's

fast enough yet. Um, uh, yeah, I just, I'm not

impressed by the sort of the numbers he's, he's

carrying into this. Travis, is the layoff a concern

for you? Uh, no, I'll give you a couple

of positives on them. And again, we're sort of

reaching here, right? But, uh, the Tampa Bay Derby

pace was slow, which means it's hard to make final

time figures. Slow paces can sometimes lead to

wonky final time numbers. So

maybe you could argue that if there was more

legitimate pace, you might have earned a better

number. I think his X factor is a,

I read who's just a phenomenal rider, but Chad

Brown, who knows how to handicap races and, and

looks at how races shake out. And

he and, and I read will have a plan. And

if you can remember practical joke broke from

post 20, a few years ago, a horse that is a grade

one sprinter that was able to find the rail from post

20. By the time they hit the

first turn purely off tactics and planning and

just their strategy for the race. And

to me, domestic product, they're going to try and

do the same thing. So maybe he can outrun his

odds a little bit. All right. We're

going to get into a little bit more of a quick pick

around here. So, uh, these last two rounds

are people are going to give their pick and what

they think about it. And then we'll, we'll discuss

who got the steel of the last two rounds, uh, when

it's all done. So Louis, who is your pick

here? I'm going to go ahead and

steal the rest of their rounds. I'm

going to say that endlessly ends up running in the

Derby. I, I love the Ruby route to

the Derby now, uh, in recent years, we saw it

with two fills last year endlessly looked as good as

anyone winning that race. He

may have looked the best outside of fierceness in,

in maybe Sierra Leone and the, in the blue grass of

any winner in any Derby prep this year. Give

me endlessly here in the 13 lucky 13 in the draft.

That's a some strong statements

there. Okay. Travis, you got next. Uh,

give me my biggest long shot of the day. That's

society, man. Nice. I think it's, uh, just a

horse that's going in the right direction. He's

getting a little bit better. I

liked his improvement in the wood memorial. This

is not just a late round throw it out there for me.

I actually believe he's very

live for fourth and fifth at, uh, I mean, if he's

going to be 50 to one, I think he's training well

and I just think it's a horse going the right

direction. A lot of times I was under

any spots in the Derby. It's

up for grabs. Why not him at 50? So

you like this horse in the superfect, uh, superfactor

play. I love it. High

five if you got deep pockets. Yep.

Steve, who you got next? I got a horse who, uh, may

or may not actually be in the race, but I'll go with

Encino. All right. Anything

you want to say about Encino or just, you want

to just throw that one out there? Just,

I, you know, I, my big question mark, you know, is

he was all synthetic and he finally got the dirt

start and took to it really well, showed

improvement. You know, I mean, obviously,

you know, showed, um, real fight in the stretch in

the, in the Lexington, you know, uh, I think the

buyer came back at 94. The stat, I always keep in

mind with the buyers. I think it's, uh, there's

only been two since 2000 that have won the Derby

who hadn't put up at least a 94 buyer. So

he checks that box. I think nine of the 20 doing

this race. Um, and yeah, at, uh, four,

eight, 12, 15th in the draft, I'll take a shot on

that. All right. Katelyn,

who's your fourth round pick? West

Saratoga. All right. You

want to give us any insights? Um,

he won the very first prep race on the road to the

Kentucky Derby and Larry Jamiro planned out a

schedule for this horse to get him to the Kentucky

Derby and it worked. And this horse will run on

turf, will run on all weather, he'll run on dirt.

And I expect him to outrun his

odds and be there late to potentially grab, you know,

that third, fourth, or fifth type of a position.

He's going to be a really good

price. And this is a really good

story. So I'll take West Saratoga.

All right. Uh,

your last pick, by the way, should be pointed out.

Doorknock who won a Derby prep is

still available right now. Right.

It was also the full brother. The

full brother to last year's derby. Still

available here. Katelyn, are you taking Doorknock in

this spot? Nah. I get it. I'm

going to actually take the other Japanese horse, a TO

password, which is not really attractive to me,

but, um, they, or they're not going to go to lead

with this horse, which I think is a lie. I

think they're definitely going to smoke and they're

going to go to the lead. But

in the off chance that this horse can hang on for

a piece that probably the longest shot on the board,

I want to maybe be involved in that a little

bit. And Kuzushi Kumura wrote in

this race last year, so he isn't a total rookie with

this. And he's familiar with these

types of horses. So I'll take TO password. All

right, Steve. I really was hoping Katelyn

would take your bait and, uh, and, uh, go with

Doorknock there. So I could take TO password,

but I'll, I'll take Doorknock just because,

well, there's almost nothing left here. And

I think the horse is a mess, but I'll just take

the chance that, uh, somehow it kind of

straights out. Travis, you get the last real pig

because he's going to get what's our, whatever's

leftover. These are the leftovers. I

will take catalytic. He ran second to fierceness. I

mean, you know, he was a country mile behind

fierceness, but he didn't run second to him. But

in all seriousness, his race two back was okay. He

didn't get out of the gate that well, came on, came

on with a run and he's entitled to improve a

little bit. And I just like him way more

than Brand Mo the first. So

catalytic. Louie, your last pick is actually

a horse who's sired by Derby, you know, has sired

at every one or before. Here's

the deal. Grand Mo the first three starts

this year, three third place finishes, your third

place finisher in the Kentucky Derby. Grand

Mo the first. How about that? Put

it on your tickets right here. All

right. Let's go through real quick and,

uh, who, who's the steal in those last two rounds?

Like who's, who's the horse? I

know we, we know what Travis thinks. Travis

already thinks it's society. I

mean, he got his, he got his horse. Is

that true Travis? No, I mean, I just want to be

a little bit clever. I actually think the steal to

be honest with you is Doranak. Doranak

beats Sierra Leone. The number one pick in this

draft, Doranak beats Sierra Leone. I

get it was on a good rail or whatever, but that

counts for something, doesn't it? I

mean, at one point he was one of the top three

horses in the division. Why,

why not? Why can't he bounce back? I

agree with that. Kailin, who's your steal? For

me, it's between, um, just 90 man and, you know,

because I think Encino is better on the dirt than

they thought he was going to be. Um,

I get, you know, that there's questions about

running him back in this race so quickly. And,

you know, the preakness could be the backup plan,

but I don't know. There's, there's something about the

source that he's better than people think he is.

Steve, who's your steal in this

last two rounds? Well, that according to Caitlin

and Travis, I guess I guess he's the one who's

the steal. Got it. But

outside of those two, you know, either Tio, pass or

society man. On society man, I was a

little curious there too, um, because of Frankie

Dottori. And, uh, you know, just if

there's something to be said for a little, a

little, uh, you know, Dottori magic in this race,

um, you know, uh, a little, a hundred six to

one in the wood and ran a very strong second. Um,

yeah, maybe Frank, he can do something interesting

there. All right, Louie. We've

gotten to the point where I think, you know, we used

to say the other Pletcher or the other bafford or

whatever. I think we're starting to say

the other Brad Cox and that's Encino in this race

for sure. But man, I'll go back. I

think I stole it. I think endlessly if he runs,

runs a huge race in the Kentucky. Everybody

would be very surprised by that. There

you go. For chair force for the nine

year old owners. There you go. That's

how it gets it done. I think we love it though.

Um, Caitlin, tell people where

they can find you and how find you on socials or

whatever else. And then let me know your

favorite Derby day tradition. Well,

you can find me on pretty much any social media

platform. The best one is probably X

slash Twitter. So I'm on there and then, um,

I'm on the Derby morning workshop a lot. I'll

be on the broadcast for Churchill downs all

throughout the week. Opening night, uh, be part of the

draw as well. But, uh, I'll be in the

paddock, the grandiopatic at church. So

in, uh, Derby traditions. By

the way, the morning shows are awesome. Excellent.

And if you can't watch them live, they're on

Facebook in different places, like you can go

back and find them. Churchill

down says really figured out a really good soft

spot with those things in the best way, by the way,

they do a fantastic job of those including Caitlin and

I mean, our guy, Kevin Killroy, everybody on those.

Yeah. I don't, I don't really

know about Derby traditions. Um,

I don't really have, you know, too many of them.

The work show is always fun. I

love doing that. But one quick thing I wanted

to point out in this morning show is could be

all for not, because I don't know if this horse

gets into the race. The reason why I asked if I

could draft also eligible is because I think there's

a chance that Uncle Heavy could run a really big

race if he gets into this field because a mile and a

quarter is his game. And the one where it was a

mess, there was a horse that fell right in front

of Uncle Heavy. So he was completely stopped.

He was the horse that he

ended up winning a prep race. And

he's definitely a true two turn horse. And

they're confident in this course if he can get into

this race, if not, he's going to go to the pre

-ness. He's going to get better as

distances get longer. And if the Belmont was a mile

and a half this year, I would be all over the

source for it. Hmm. That's exactly what my

nieces call me, by the way. I

always thought that was funny. All

right. I nodded because I believe

you. Oh, sorry. No,

sorry. All right. Kornaki,

where can people find you if they haven't found you

already? I don't know. I

don't know. Yeah, right. But

there's some people who have not. Where

can they find you? What's your favorite Derby Day

tradition? I'm specifically from the

outsiders. Yeah, Boston got here. It

lives in New York. Yeah, one of these guys. You

could, look, I'm my name on Twitter, although it's

the world's most boring Twitter account. So

I don't really recommend anyone follow it. I

post lots of pictures of mountains and horse tracks

on Instagram. So maybe do that. And

Derby tradition. Well, it's like since I've

started to get to do the NBC stuff, there have been

two really fun ones. I don't know what's going to

happen this year, but the last couple years, Mattress

Mack has shown up right behind our set with his,

you know, piles and piles of trash. So

it's fun to watch that. And

the other one is we make our picks on the air

basically about 10 minutes before post. So

I make my pick and then I just run to the area NBC's

got just done my on air stuff. And

I can be a fan and I love that part of it. Love

it. Travis, where can people find you

on socials and what's your favorite? The

same thing. Yeah, you can, you can hit me

up, Travis Stone on Twitter. My

favorite Derby tradition is within minutes of them

crossing the wire. I cracked that first beer.

Yeah, nice. Yeah.

It is. If people haven't seen it,

Travis has called to the Derby. They

tape it every year and you can watch him call it. And

if you want to watch the weight of the world exit

someone's shoulders, you can watch Travis as soon as

that call is done. High five someone. I

don't know. Even though don't tell me who

it is. I don't want to know. High

five someone up there in the booth. It's

probably Cooper Assan, whatever. It's

Peter. It's Peter Garner. And

just, you could just see just the decompression of

Travis Stone after weeks of build up for that race.

Yeah, the weight of the world

leaves and Anheuser -Busch enters. It's

great. Love it. Just

that's Jane Issel's favorite thing probably right there.

It's way up there. My

favorite Derby tradition, by the way, is when all the

old Courier Journal guys get together. So

Pat Fordy, Rick Bosich, and they complain about where

the press box used to be. That's

my favorite. Watching a bunch of 60 year old

men stand around complaining about where the press box

used to be. How about you shut up and

cover up for us? Deal with it. I'm

still a sucker for my old Kentucky Home. Sure.

I love it. Lots of great stuff. But

that's why, by the way, I got a babysitter for

Saturday. My wife is camping for Scouts

on Saturday. I got a babysitter just to

watch those five guys stand around and complain about.

Oh, I love it so much. I

guess my real favorite Derby, it's not Derby Day,

but Derby Week tradition is the best. No

question. That is the best. It's

the best. It's the best. It's

the best. All right. We

really appreciate you guys jumping on with us. It

was a great show. Good draft. Cornac

you will let you know if you win. He

was the only one who was curious about how do I win

this thing. How do I put this thing? It

seems like other prizes. Yeah,

what will happen here? Yeah.

Let me say, if I get to watching how does that

work? Yeah, don't we get a statement?

Yeah. Yeah. But

thank you all very much. Hope

we get to see you all next week and have a great

Derby Week. Thank you. You

too. Take care. All

right. Really? Ad horse happy hour on

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That's right. Seven

o 'clock. We'll be out there. We'll

do you do in our Derby seminar. That

should be a lot of fun. Thanks

to Dr. Chet Mays for letting us use

the locker room up here, which is really, really

nice. I'm really going to just come

out here and hang out. Just

work. Yeah. And just say, like, care.

Go give me a water. Care.

Go do this. Stop taking the before picture.

It's going to be great. So

we get it. All right. We're

going to pay the tab. We're

going to get out here. This

has been another edition of the Horse Racing Happy

Hour.