KY Downs Preview Weekend 2024

All right, welcome in a special August 2nd Friday afternoon

edition. Why not Horse racing happy hour.

It's nude somewhere people. Kevin Kerstein and the sniper,

the urban handicapper, we call him barrier out here.

Joining me, Louis Raboch here on the horse racing happy hour.

It is Kentucky Downs preview weekend at Ellis Park.

And because things have gone a very specific way in Kevin's

life, he has to do publicity for Ellis Park.

So there you are, Kevin. How are you?

How was vacation? Jersey Shore, right?

Yeah, down the shore it was great, but good to be back here

if you can see the twin Spires. Over my background so.

That's a pretty good view right there to to get things going,

but I'll be down in Henderson later this afternoon for a great

weekend to racing down there at Ellis Park and the cards

Saturday through Monday are just phenomenal down there.

And of course, Saturday and Sunday with Kentucky Downs

Preview Weekend. I don't want to totally speak

for Barry, but I'm going to the the the Saturday through Monday

schedule. Just a fantastic move.

We we totally appreciate the Monday racing.

You know, and I've always been a huge fan of like, I'm a

degenerate, right? So like, what am I going to do

on Monday or Tuesday? And so this Ellis Park fills

that void for all of us horse players out there to, you know,

when Saratoga and Del Mar aren't running on Mondays, you know,

why not Ellis Park? And the cards, the Monday cards

are great. They're just really building

momentum over the last couple of weeks since we started running

Mondays this season at Ellis Park.

And this Monday's card is no different.

It's gonna be a great Monday of racing, but really exciting to

sort of fill that degenerate void on a Monday.

What else you're gonna do? Sit at home and do nothing?

Come on, let's gamble on Ellis. I need a T-shirt that says Ellis

Park. What else are you going to do?

Nothing because that would be great.

I really would appreciate that. Kevin Christine with us from

Churchill Downs. Look, I actually don't know this

and I talk about both Ellison and Kentucky Downs a lot,

frankly. But how did Preview weekend come

to be, and what's the background there?

You know, with preview weekends we see in the horse racing

calendar, obviously it's so cyclical.

And here in Kentucky, you know, the racing at Ellis Park is

just, you know, the timing works out perfectly for Kentucky Downs

boutique meet that kicks off this year on August the 29th.

And so really it's a credit to, you know, these two tracks of

Ellis Park and Kentucky Downs working together.

Obviously we're competitors when it boils down to it, we're owned

by two separate entities and we're working together to try

and fill that space for horsemen to really, you know, have their

horses prepare at Ellis Park where they're going to probably

run anyway. But let's boost up these races

for stakes for the Kentucky Downs program.

Obviously, we know how impressive their stakes schedule

is for their seven day meet. And so instead of trying to find

allowances or overnight stakes, let's boost up this preview day

program because the timing fits perfectly between, you know, a

month to five weeks out for the Kentucky Downs races to give

these owners and trainers are spot to run their horses in the

summertime right here in the Bluegrass for Kentucky Downs

racing on Labor Day weekend. And actually, we've seen if

horses run well this coming weekend, they're going to run

well at at at Kentucky Downs. We've seen that over and over.

Yeah, absolutely. And I think the the horses that

you're seeing in these races, you know, Mike Maker's got nine

horses entered across these races.

Brian Lynch is aiming all of these horses are going to want

to run a Kentucky Downs. And that's sort of the the

mantra is, you know, all these sources will run a Kentucky

Downs. Let's give them a starting

point. And you're seeing a lot of them.

Maybe they're not ready on Saturday or Sunday for these

steaks, but they're really prepping for that Kentucky Downs

weekend in late August, 1st weekend of September.

Makes the handicapping even more fun to try to figure out.

This weekend, six of those preview races plus the Pucker

Up. This weekend, the Pucker Up

really gaining in I think in influence.

We're seeing more and more 3 year old Phillies aiming for

that race, $400,000 in the pool never hurts.

But you know, between the three races on the preview side of the

Pucker Up, Kevin, just a really great two day set of races.

Can you kind of describe the people I know?

One wager that people might not be familiar with in Ellis Park

is that Turf Pick 3. Yeah, absolutely.

The the $3 all turf pick three, which on Sunday kicks off from

race number 7. And so you're going to have an

all stakes sequence. It's a 15% take out horse player

friendly wager and it features that pucker up, which features

pin up Betty, who's a regret stakes winner.

Her damn actually won on Kentucky Downs Preview weekend

in 2018. So it's all in the family there

for Mike Maker. So if you have some opinions in

races 79 and 10 on Sunday, it's a great bet.

And you know, with a $3 denomination, you're going to

have to narrow it down. You can't spread like in a $0.50

traditional pick three. And so the payouts will will

reflect that this weekend. On Saturday, it gets kicked off

in race #5 but also includes 2 stakes there.

So all stakes sequence on Sunday.

And I'm really, that's the bet that I'm going to dive into on

Sunday's card because I really love the sequence kicking off a

race #7 with that turf Sprint. And so got a narrow down that a

handicapping opinion. But you can also hedge all six

pick four on Sunday, a great pick five sequence on both of

those races, race cards. So you know, lots of wagering

options. But that all turf pick 3 is

really what I'm keying in on Sunday, starting a race #7.

Yeah, 79 and 10 on Sunday. I would say for anyone listening

that it's never bet that in your ADW it's listed in a different

line than Ellis Park. So you'll have to actually go

find it as a separate bet, but not too difficult once you do

get there. You mentioned that Sunday

sequence, Kevin. I know you're going to be

betting it. Is there a horse in there that

stands out to you that maybe is like, I don't know, 1012 to one

that you must include in your ticket?

Well, it really kicks off that six sequences, the horse that

I'm really interested on, and that's Joe Scheisty, who breaks

from the 10 holies 12:50 on the morning line.

I'm not sure what his price will reflect because he was an

impressive winner of the William Walker Stakes here at Churchill

Downs and he's been off since that race.

He was aiming to return at Ellis Park earlier on in the meet.

The race got washed off and rent went on the dirt.

So we're now seeing him back on the turf.

Eric Foster and his whole family points for this Ellis Park meet,

being a native of Western Kentucky.

So I think Joe Sheisty is ready to roll and if he can, you know,

I don't think he needs the lead. He got the lead in the William

Walker last time out. But the outside post does not

hurt him in this spot. Maybe he can track just off the

lead, but he can also be on the lead too.

So I'm very excited to bet him. I think the press will be right.

12:50 in the morning line. There you go, plus you get her

out of Corrales. He may or may not have won a

turf Sprint in a big spot before.

So there you go. Not the not the end of the world

there. Well, Kevin, jump appreciate you

jumping on buddy. Good luck with the drive there

and back to Henderson, but have a great time with Pete Patch

this weekend. Absolutely looking forward to

listening to the rest of the show and best of luck this

weekend everyone. All right.

Thanks, Kev. Talk to you soon, buddy.

All right. Well, Kevin Kirstein, I he

jumped on right before you did, Barry.

And I was like, oh, you doubted Alice, Bunny or Euclonia.

What are you doing? He literally just turned his

camera. There was the twin Spires.

It's like, OK, no. There we go, There it is.

So there you go. Oh man.

Well, Barry Spears with us. Urban handicapper, sniper, we

call him Barry around here. Totally gracious.

Nice of you to jump in on a Friday afternoon, 2:00 to go

ahead and preview these races as well.

When you play these races, Barry, are you, are you

interested in that higher denomination pick three because

of the take out and because the payouts are better or you look

at more of it as like, hey, this is part of a pick five sequence.

That's what I'm going to be zeroing it on.

Honestly if my opinions are good, probably both.

I I love the three dollar pick three because of the higher

denomination. It it kind of weeds out a lot of

people playing ALS and, and catching some, some wild

payouts. But yeah, I mean, those, those

payouts are usually really, really good and, and it's worth,

you know, spending up a little bit just just to get a shot at

it. Yeah.

Yeah, I I expect big pays in those this weekend and I think

we'll have some surprises in these races.

I'll be interested to hear from Barry where he's looking to

spread, where he's looking to kind of try to 0 in on a horse.

We will see Overcharge this weekend, for example, might be a

spot where we do want to lean in, but every stakes race this

weekend except for the Pucker Up if they were a preview race, is

a quarter $1,000,000. The first one we're going to

talk about is Saturday race seven starts that late pick four

overall on the card, but is part of a pick three with the turf

races. There it is the Kentucky Downs

Preview Mid Ladies Turf spread 5 and a furlongs on the turf.

This is a prep for the great two ladies Turf Sprint Berry, which

they're running for a million and a half dollars, which they

do at Kentucky Downs in every race it seems like.

Yeah. You know, while Kevin was

talking, I was thinking, you know, why don't I just dress up

like a horse so I can't get into one of these races and, and run

for the purses they run at Kentucky Downs because it's it's

phenomenal how big those purses are.

And this is just a little little taste before that actually

happens. This the seventh race the the

preview mint ladies turf Sprint is is a tough race.

I know we got overcharged in there who is is just lightning

fast, although, you know, she hasn't really been facing the

top notch competition, but she's been disposing of anybody in her

path. But I'm going to try to, I don't

know against her here in this race.

I, I, I know this is a prep and she might not be fully, fully

cranked to win this one. She might win it by accident.

But I think this is the kind of race that it's either

overcharged as a single or you're going to spread.

I like two other horses in here. L JS Emma is one of them at

12:50 on the morning line has some races to go to.

Had a nice race back in August 12th last year at Saratoga in

the Galway and got up in a 5 1/2 furlong event there and I think

this race kind of sets up that way.

Overcharged has a lot of speed. I think BG Warrior will probably

try to go in the the the real question mark is what is red

carpet ready going to do? This was just showed a lot of

speed on the dirt getting to the turf for the first time.

I'm hoping that that one kind of gets in the way of of

overcharged and and and won't let her kind of just run off and

and and bury this field. If that does happen, a horse

like L JS, Emma or even Bling, we'll have a huge chance in

here. They those are the two I pegged

as the two best closers in this race and I'm hoping that one of

them gets the gets the money. Man, you mentioned bling.

She ran really well in the Pucker up last year in that

three-year old race. I expect her to get back to

sprinting here. You know, last two times out at

a mile ran out of gas, especially the last time out of

Churchill Downs. Do wonder if she'll appreciate

getting back to a shorter distance here and I fully expect

that she will. I actually just talked 3 hours

ago with Rusty Arnold, the trainer Carpet ready.

And this is an interesting one actually, Barry, because they

they decided with this horse when Churchill had to shut down

their turf course to go ahead and run her on the dirt, even

though her pedigree screams turf.

And then all of a sudden, boom, they had a horse that won by Ted

likes. They set her down at Gulf St.

Park. She picks off the Devota Dale,

this kind of stuff, right? And she's just that kind of

horse. And you know, he said, you know,

the plan all along. He said it was a great, it was a

great accident. She wins, you know, the 8 bells

last year, all that kind of stuff.

And you know, this year, it's just it was time.

It was either now they were going to shift to the dirt or it

was never going to happen for her.

And so they made an ownership decision.

She was going to try the turf. Obviously the breeding makes

sense. And I'm with you.

If she won here, I don't think anybody would be surprised if

red carpet ready is the winner of this race, for example.

And so I I'm with her and I'm with Bling in this one.

I think overcharged, if she brings her a game, though, is

the class of this one. I think we agree for sure on

that one. Moving on to race eight, It is

the the preview for the Nashville Derby.

And so this is a mile and an eighth on that turf course

obviously for three-year olds. Open company here, a pretty wide

open race according to the morning line maker.

We do have a 2 to one favorite in the American Derby Alum in

Green light. Alex Ashard, Grade one winner as

a jockey gets the mount there. Barry, I know you.

So I know you're going to be trying to beat green light in

this one. Yeah, you're definitely right

about that because I I just think, you know, 2 to one on a

horse that only has a maiden score in a race that with some

real pretty nice horses, it's tough to take.

Although, you know, Green Light's performance on that one

win is was exceptional. But I'm not convinced that this

horse is, is the goods in this spot.

You know, there there's some speed in here and I think that

this this pace might heat up a little bit.

A horse like Abramar maybe two months ago probably would have

been on my radar. But it seems like that horse is

kind of just didn't make that leap from 2:00 to 3:00 and it's

kind of tailing off a little bit.

So a horse is like the one Oscars world is really

interesting to me, especially off that last race, showing that

this horse probably made an improvement from 2:00 to 3:00

and getting into that spot, particularly the the one hole

might make all the difference because this horse is going to

get a great trip. And at 8:00 to 1:00, I really

couldn't resist with with that one.

You know, getting beaten by neat Cogeno in the past, Seminole

chief, who's pretty good. So you know, this horse has some

some class there. The other one that that kind of

piqued my interest is the three beyond stoked almost for the

same reasons, kind of stepped up in class and and went in a a

ungraded steak last time in any horseshoe Indianapolis, and it

looks like this horse is kind of turning the corner.

Could get could use a little bit of help up front because cameo

performance. The 8 is is a pretty good closer

too. So between those three, I'm

probably going to take the higher of the three.

But it it's really going to be interesting how this this race

is bet honestly. Yeah, I'm interested.

The only horse you didn't mention that I would mention is

Domingo. The five here, Declan Cannon

gets them out for Brendan Walsh here.

And if we draw a line through the Kent last out, try to go a

mile and 3/8 there at Delaware. If we go back to races before

that, this has been a horse right there at the ends of races

under Luis Saez. So picks up Declan Cannon here,

two of them hitting at a modest 13% at Turfway or excuse me, at

Ellis Park. You know this and I, I do wonder

though, second off the layoff here, if this horse is going to

be ready to go but lost a little rider last time out at Delaware

in the Kent. We'll go ahead and and draw a

line through that. Maybe just with Trevor McCarthy

that day, but I'll go ahead and I'll draw a line through that.

Give that horse a serious chance here.

The daughter, excuse me, the son in this case of American

Pharaoh. I do agree though that if if

green light runs his race, probably the winner here.

But I, no, I'm with you. No guarantees on that.

As you said, only one lifetime win and four runs there.

But we got a bunch of horses in this race, not a ton of wins.

And that's why I think Aberbar is so interesting is because

that horse has been running in stakes company recently, last

three times out. But before that won the Colonel

Liam at Gulfstream Park in March as a three-year old.

So at least has some experience winning those kinds of races.

Get her out of corales in them out here.

He's winning at a decent percent at Ellis right now too.

This is a Safi Joseph, I don't think an unintentional ship to

this track as well for the two Abramar.

So interested to see if either Domingo or Abramar are part of

the Derby finish there. The preview at least in Race 8.

On Saturday we go to Race 9, which is the preview for the

Turf Mile. And this is for the Turf Mile at

the Kentucky Duns, which they are running for $2,000,000.

No big deal. I forgot to mention that the

Nashville Derby will rerun for 2,000,000 bucks as well.

A Barry. At this point with those kinds

of races, especially like a Derby, how many do you think

Applebee's going to bring? Seven horses for a $2,000,000

race? How does that work?

I I wouldn't doubt it. He should, right?

He should load his. Whole his whole barn load load

them all up and get them in in one of these races.

I mean, even getting a piece of any of these races is is

lucrative. So I mean it's just phenomenal

the the purse structure there. But this, this race here.

Yeah, how about Race 9? The the 1,000,000 preview is is

such an interesting race because if it's really a prep, I would

think win for the money wouldn't win in this spot.

I would. I don't see anybody else that

can really beat this horse. He's kind of a standout in.

In this situation, he's going to be really, really, really hard

to beat. I mean, the only other horse

that may have sort of a pace advantage would be Tut's

Revenge, but I don't think this one wants to go that far.

And, and that that's really the only thing that that's holding

me back from playing a horse like Tut's revenge.

I I know he's won it a mile previously in the last race

actually, but I just don't think he he's that kind of horse in

general. He'll have to prove it to me.

He probably can, but I'm going to go the wait and see approach.

Besides win for the money, I think Fuerta Ventura has a has a

really good shot. Both have similar running

styles, however, and it's it's going to be kind of a rider's

race in that regard. I'm interested in Miranda rights

in here, so Luan Machado picks up them out here for Mark Cassie

and Mark Cassie. By the way, sneaky good.

Started LS3 for 9:00 at a sneaky good start at at Saratoga too,

so the guy's barred is just hot right now.

Interested to see if Miranda rights can keep this trend

going. So this is a horse hasn't run a

buyer speed figure lower than 81 in his last five races.

Ran well at Churchill Downs and I know that doesn't translate

everywhere right now, but horses that have run well at Churchill

Downs do seem to be bouncing and running well in other spots as

well. One an optional claimer last out

at Churchill for non two life first so gets that win under his

belt, winning last starts and winning again for Marcasi 19

percent. A really, really good angle for

him and then the four is Hwy. robber.

I got Declan cannon again. Man, I got to watch myself here

a little too much two good rides in a row under Rafa Bay Hirano.

Both of those at a mile. So this horse is one at the

distance ran third by a neck in a very very interesting touch

revenge. One blanket finish that you

mentioned touch revenge last time out.

It's so this one if if it's not win for the money, Barry, this

is another race for me. You either get real selective

here or this becomes a spread race for you too, right.

And so I I'm I'm leaning toward leaning on win for the money

because I think while it's nice to dream about Kentucky downs

and not totally gearing up your horse, that race is five weeks

from now. So it's not as though they

can't, you know, gear up, win this one and then bounce back

and run really well. It's at Kentucky Downs.

Yeah, I was thinking about Highway Robert.

I like that horse in the other race on Sunday rather than this

one. I think this horse has to go

longer, basically. That's the stance on that one,

but we'll talk about that one in a minute.

OK, got it. Do you have a sequence for

Saturday at all? How do you think you're going to

end up playing? It Oh man, this is this is

tough. I mean, you know, honestly, I, I

think I would go ahead and single win for the money in any

kind of exotics and, and try to go through that horse and, and

sprinkle in some, some longer prices, like in the in the

eighth race with Oscar's world beyond stoked and maybe throwing

Domingo or someone else just to try to get to that point and

then and then close it out. I I don't think this is going to

chalk out by any means. So this is definitely going to

be a sequence I'm going to attack.

But of any favorites I think are solid, I think Win for the Money

is the one. I put together a ticket where

with one single and then four horses and three horses where if

you just play it as a traditional pick three, but for

two bucks, it comes out as like a $24.00 kind of ticket.

And I'm, I'm willing to do those kinds of tickets all day long.

Frankly, if I feel, you know, strongly about a nice, you know,

you know, pick one spot in the pick three, essentially try to

hit a double for 2 bucks. And I'm, I'm very, very

comfortable trying to put that together.

If you had to guess, let's go ahead and do this.

Win percentage for Overcharged in her race at race 7.

Likelihood that she wins. I'd probably say 60%.

That sounds right to me. I'm right at about 60%.

Let's go to race 8. The favorite there is going to

be green light. What percentage do we give green

light in that race? Probably about for me.

I'd say 4040%. I'm at like 35, I think maybe

33, like a third of the times they run that race, he wins.

I think that's about, yeah, 40%'s pretty good.

Yeah. And then in the ninth race, the

favorite here, of course, is going to be win for the Money.

I'll put this one, Barry, right, About 55%.

So a little bit more than half the time.

Yeah, I was going to say, you know, probably about that or 60.

I'd probably go 62, but I I just don't want to bet against that

horse in the first race. I think it's overcharged, yeah.

Yeah, I, I, I really. If you're going to make money in

this sequence, that's where you're going to make the money

is against overcharged. I totally agree with you.

Yeah, it's 5 for five this year. Yeah, I I think it was

overcharged is going to get over bet and hopefully somebody can

get in in her way to to to kind of get her tired out.

So somebody from way back and hit the wire first?

I wish they had gone full Rick Pitino on her name, by the way.

And instead of OVA charged, they'd go to OVA and then put an

H in where the R is. Yeah, right.

That's. It go back to my my

Massachusetts roots. Man, there it is, buddy.

You know, Oh, man, get after it. But yeah, no, I wish they would

have done that, but they didn't. And here we are.

There you go. Joe Scheiste was mentioned.

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First race we're going to talk about is race 7 on Sunday.

That'll be the Kentucky Downs Preview Turf Sprint.

This is a prep for the $2,000,000 turf Sprint. 5 1/2

furlongs for three and up quarter million bucks as all of

the stakes do this weekend. Barry, I love a good turf

Sprint. As far as a bad I, I really

love. I do too.

I just I feel like this is where either in a sequence you make

your money or man especially like an exact to trifecta play.

This is where you can really cash.

Yeah, I, I mean, I don't know if, if a lot of the people

listening follow turf sprints like around the country, but

usually these are wide open events every time and exciting

races to watch. You know, there's usually like a

blanket finish, a whole bunch of horses just running as hard as

they can. And it's always a good race to

to at least watch if anything else.

This one is no exception. I mean, there's a lot of really

good horses in this race. This is a really, really good

event. Unfortunately, I don't really

like Joe Sheisey too much because I think there's a ton of

speed in here and and outdoor in particular I think is kind of a

rabbit for Arrest Me Red and I think Arrest Me Red sits a great

trip in this race and gets it done.

The only other horse I could see getting a similar trip to what

Arrest Me Red might get is Moustache cutting back from a

mile. You know, last year he's running

in mile races, mile on the 16th and on the cut back I think he's

a lot more effective. His, his, his speed figures have

gone up and I think he he's gonna be sitting a great trip in

this race with all the speed from the outside and then out to

door mixing in those two horses for me look to be the freight

trains coming late. A a horse who's won twice at

Ells Park and never won, including in this race last year

was Oceanic, and I think he's going to have a big day on

Saturday under Christian Torres, 9:00 to 2:00 on the morning line

here. The two horse, I think he's got

all the speed in the world and I think he's absolutely going to

show it off. Second off, the layoff here for

Jordan Blair. I think that this is a fantastic

spot for that horse and I got to be honest, good luck to Ray Liu

and Edelmar, but I love Christian Torres aboard here in

this case and so I went two one on top.

I agree about the 11 here. I think that Joe Scheiste is is

up against a little bit. I'll get into him in a minute,

but I think Coppola's got a lot of speed as well.

Could be part of the equation. The five horse in here is

interesting to be at Bear River. I don't know how this one's ever

going to go off other than connections.

This one wins the day. Parks Dash.

Yes, it was in the slop, but before that wins and allowance

at Churchill wins in the slop at Churchill's.

This is a horse that just is winning right now, Barry and

sometimes those 12 to one type of horses.

This son of flame away trained by Keith de Zormo.

I just really, really interested in how so he's going to run as

well. Very much feels like a spread

race to be in this spot in Race 7 on Sunday.

Joe Scheiste. Here's why I disagree with

Kevin. Eric Foster's worst, and I mean

worst angle is this kind of layoff for his horses.

So I actually think he's trying to gear this horse up completely

for Kentucky Downs. I think they're they're going

for it with this horse. And so I think he'll be, he'll

be fine on Saturday for sure. But man, I think they're trying

to gear that horse up for once they get down to the the great

Meadow that is the Tennessee border that is Kentucky Downs.

So we'll have to see. So who's your top top play in

that race? Top, top play.

I'm going to go with Moustache. OK.

All right. Just because of the class, you

know, he, he faced Cogburn, he, he, you know, he's been running

Web Slinger last year, Talk of the Nation.

He he's been running with some really, really good horses and

he's he's showed his class. And he won a, you know, won a

high level allowance at Keeneland this year already, so

obviously plenty of class himself.

The next race is Race 8 on Sunday.

That will be the Kentucky Down Preview Lady Turf Mile.

That's a mile on the turf, obviously, Phillies and Bears 3

and up, quarter $1,000,000 in that.

This is a prep for the Grade 3 Ladies Turf, which they'll run

for $1.5 million at Kentucky Downs.

But I'll let you go first again here.

But we do see in this field some horses that people probably

remember. Regal Realm is in here.

Fastest flight man. Who else?

The Bolli VS in here. Trying to figure out what to do

with her four year old career. For sure.

Walkathon is in here. Dana's beauty.

Lots of nice horses in here and we see the return of Jose Ortiz

for this day. Yeah, that that was really

interesting, but I zeroed in on one horse and one horse only in

here and it's #5 fastest flight. I think this horse has been

stellar all year. This year is 3 races this year

have been her. Her three races this year have

been very, very good had excuses in the two that she didn't win

the first one March 30th at at at Gulfstream, she was out wide

and and just didn't get an ideal trip and and actually ran pretty

damn good despite all of that. Then came back May 3rd on the

Derby undercard and and won the modesty pretty well.

And then at Woodbine went in the Grade 2 Nassau and was just

compromised by the post was just out wide, didn't you know, 456

wide basically the whole way and never really had a shot to win.

Draws well here gets the perfect setup.

There's enough speed, especially from the outside for this horse

to just settle in and get a good trip.

And I don't really see too much past that horse myself.

I think Regal Realm you might want to give a a second look to.

She's an old kind of classy mare getting into this race off one

race over at Horseshoe Indianapolis, and I think that

one sets that one up for the rest of the year kind of.

Yeah, I think you're right. I have.

I have a three, five in my handicapping.

I had a long shot in here, Barry, that I really like.

She's looking lucky. The 20, the two is 20 to one.

Excuse me for Axel Concepcion, who rode her last time and she

did win last time out at Ellis Park over a mile.

And guess what we got to do with this race?

We got to go, I don't know, a mile where?

Ellis Park. How about that?

And so she won it last time. Do you see the final time on

that? 133 and four.

You think that can't win a stakes race because I do now big

questions big, big question. She's looking lucky.

Last time she won without Lasix, never.

So we're going to have to see if she can drop the Lasix and win

that way. This daughter of looking at

lucky. But I I was so impressed, went

back and watched. There's nothing not to like

about how she ran last time. She was patient.

She she waited her turn and when Axel asked her to go, she did.

And so that was second off the layoff.

I think you could draw a line. I think she even ran well in the

slop at a mile and a quarter of Churchill before that.

And so I think she's just in good form right now and it's 20

to one. I think she's won at least in

race eight there in the preview for the Turf mile, for the

Lady's Turf Mile that you have to include at least in your

exactas or in your trifectas, you happen to agree about her?

Yes, she's very sneaky because she's been keeping really good

company. You see the likes of Corning

Stone, Jaguera wet paint, Silla punch bowl when when she was

good. So this horse has been knocking

heads with with some really good horses.

It's just a matter of you know, if she can handle the the class

rise into this race in particular and then handle the

turf again, which I I think she probably can.

We did not. You'll get your price too.

You'll get. Your that ones going to be I'd

be surprised if we get 20 to one.

I'm honest. I'm being honest like I I think.

She should probably be less, but I I don't think much less.

No, 1618, yeah, that kind of number.

Yeah, I'm with you man. I think you'd get a a real

number on her, which would be fantastic.

The ninth race is the one great at stakes on the car that is the

pucker up for three-year old Phillies go to mile and an

eighth on the turf course there at at Ellis Park. 400K in the

Kitty here. Lots of horses nominated for the

Breeders Cup and by lots of them I mean all of them in this race.

And so we've got a bunch of owners who think a lot of their

horses here. Barry, did you land on anyone in

this race? I will share that I did land on

the favorite pit up Betty in this spot.

I thought she looked really good at Aqueduct last out over the

mile 316. Just didn't get there at the

end. I thought she was still

energized at the end. Just couldn't catch up with

Cinderella's dream in that one before that, of course, wins the

regret at Churchill Downs. I would say the downside to her

is she's going to have to make a trip now.

I think the good news is she's going to be sitting third or

fourth rather than, you know, 9th or 10th, something like

that. And so I think in this field

she'll be able to set herself up behind, I don't know, maybe a

sanctify or who was it most time Michelle, who's going to be in

this race as well. I think she'll have a little bit

of speed to to to trail behind. Maybe she's fired just to her

inside. But I did land on pin up Betty.

This might be where Barry I get a little skinny and try to use

her. Yeah, I, I, I agree.

I she she kind of stands out over this field trip wise and

speed figure wise, she probably stacks up.

You know what, ahead of most of these horses, one I I would take

a second look at would be Hello Hollywood.

And I think only because Jose Ortiz will probably try to get

this horse to the front and, and try to slow things up and, and,

and have the the run of the race, which might be the move.

Because obviously the only other horse that I can see kind of

making a run for the lead is ceasefire.

And I don't I don't think Hello Hollywood out of the gate.

So I I think that one might be up against unless they just full

out just go as fast as they can. And it's interesting that Kevin

Rice is somebody that Jose Ortiz rides for quite a bit and he

ends up on Hello Hollywood. Not that he would ride cheese

fire because you know, it has a very minimal chance to win this

race, but could cause some problems upfront early.

The other horse that that I would give some attention to

maybe is Mofox given, although the pace scenario doesn't really

set up for a horse like this. She's been out kind of out

running out running the pace scenario she's been in lately.

So I, I would, I would think that this horse would be coming

late and fast. I do wonder.

If the stretch out will actually be good for her.

And so I I think there's a chance that she'll likely be at

a distance here. You know, she wins the

Appalachian in April or excuse me, she runs second in the

Appalachian in April at Keeneland, right there behind

Buchu when Buchu was running her very best.

And so, you know, could she get back to that?

Because I think if that races a mile on an eighth, she probably

wins it right. And so maybe it's the mile on

the 8th for Mofox, given that'll be a little bit bit better.

It is fun to watch horses like pin up Betty, for example, who

it takes them. I think it took her eight starts

to break her maiden, but man, once that light went on, Barry,

my gosh, it just went on, right? She goes out to regret the next

start, wins that one and then she goes out.

They ship her to ship her to Long Island.

She runs a good fourth of that race.

It's fun to watch the light go on.

You know it's funny you. Say that because years ago, if

you remember, Orb kind of did the same thing, didn't break his

maiden right away and they didn't have to rush him or

didn't feel like they had to rush him into steaks company.

And that ended up benefiting the horse later on because he he was

just a better horse with more foundation for going long and

things of that sort. I think this is kind of the same

sort of situation with Pin Up Betty is that she didn't really

figure it out until later on, but once she did, she's very

good. Yeah, no, that's right, Mike.

Maker trains there. As Kevin mentioned at the

beginning of the show, he has 387 horses entered this weekend

just at Ellis Park. So that'll be that's a lot of

horses. Boy, oh boy.

Come on, Mike. Let other people in there.

Ridiculous. No, I think it was nine.

I think 9, whatever. Nine, 387, Barry.

It's all the same to me, buddy. Race 10.

Race 10, The closer on Sunday there at Ellis Park, another

stakes race at another preview race.

This is the preview Turf Cup. We're going a mile and a quarter

on the turf course there at Ellis Park.

This is actually a $300,000 race.

I did misspeak a little bit earlier. 3 year olds and up.

This will feed into the Kentucky Downs Turf Cup, which is a grade

two this year, $2,000,000 race. You know, that's all.

And so, Perry, where did you landed this one as they prep for

running for $2,000,000 later on this year?

Yeah, this was. Interesting the morning line on

this race because the the horse they have at 5:00 to 2:00 Siege

of Boston. You know, I've been I've been

watching this horse for a while since basically since he ran at

Tampa Bay Downs back in February.

And he's like right on the verge, but just for whatever

reason can't win races. And, and I think that trend is,

is probably going to keep going. So we're going to look at other

horses here. Anglophile is the one I I really

like here in this spot. Brian Lynch has this horse

really ready to go, I think and and just kind of got a little

unlucky last time was it parked outside wide and I think that

basically did that horse in. But the the three horses that

finished in front of them are pretty damn good when Webslinger

Segoe and bold act that's nothing to to to feel bad about.

Then going a mile and a quarter, I think is right up this horse's

alley as well. And then I alluded to Hwy.

Robber, who I think has a good chance in here and I think the

stretch out will really help this horse if he lands in this

spot for me. Brian Lynch is holding all the

cards here I landed on. What say the the seven horse

here? Jaime Torres?

I got to watch myself, not Christian.

Jaime Torres here for Mike Maker won the Texas Turf Classic last

time out. Then before that one, an

optional claimer. Before that one, an allowance.

So maybe I'm missing something that this horse is 6 to one, but

he's 4 for five this year. He did run 2nd or 7th, excuse

me, in an optional claimer at Gulfstream Park, but otherwise

has done nothing but win. And I just think he's on the

kind of tear that I'm not willing to bet against if he

gets the right trip here. And so if Jaime, who will have

to close and make a path for this horse, I can do just that.

This horse has an absolutely mega shot here in my notes.

I also have the five horse in siege of Boston kind of in the

second spot because Barry that's what he likes to do.

He likes. You're right, absolutely in the

second spot. I agree with you about

Anglophile, by the way. I think Declan cannon has a

chance to have a big weekend with them and the Christian

Torres is on win for the money on the inside.

He's going to probably have to take back just a little bit.

But I I wonder if you don't like they did up at Woodbine a couple

back in the grade 300 Patrick husbands, if they won't try to

get him closer to the front this time and just being on the one,

maybe just wanting to be there and just getting to set the pace

that way. Mark Cassie trains, of course.

I think it's not an accident that this horse is making the

switch over from the wise Dan where frankly he ran a pretty OK

race. But like you pointed out, Jose

Ortiz jumping on siege of Boston.

In this case, do you think there's a chance that a change

to someone like Jose Ortiz could be the thing that gets CJ Boston

or siege of Boston over the over the hump here?

It could, I mean. You know, it's tough because he

hasn't been riding this horse, but he did ride, you know, ride

them once back in March and he may know a little something or

some way to save that much energy or, or get in whatever

position just to get to the wire 1st.

And I mean, it's, it's happened before with him and his brother

on on. You know, you see them pretty

much every day get on horses and, and change their form or,

or, you know, get them in positions to where they can win.

One thing I'll say about what say the you know, that horse has

been favored all year, which is wild to me, but he's been

winning and the thing I I don't particularly like is that he's

speed figure wise and everything else looks very, very similar.

Six to one, I think is a little bit high.

I think he's probably going to be more second, third choice in

this race, but we'll see. I, I, you know, he, he just

barely wins races, which concerns me a little bit, a lot.

Of neck. Heads, things like that.

There's some horses that are just that way.

Dude, I was just at the. Haskell And that's not

comfortable for me. I get it.

Idiomatic's like that, man. She's never going to win by

three. She's never going to win by

three lengths, and she's just never will.

It's just never going to happen. So I'm with you, man.

All right, so there are four races to close the card here.

All turf, all turf stakes races here.

I'm going to try the pick 4 Barry on Saturday or excuse me

on Sunday. I know you're playing that turf

pick three. Is there a key horse for you in

races 79 and 10 on Sunday at Ellis Park?

Actually I I like the horse in in the 10th probably Anglophile

the best. I I think that horse is really

sitting on a good race solid. Solid single if you can get

there. Man that would be fantastic.

So they like the singles in the last.

Race too you you know it's. It's funny, we had we had Jose

Contrerasad from LaSalle a couple years ago and he said

something like, man, don't we all just love the funnel pick

five. It's like real wild man.

The. Single in the last race.

Oh man, so he said. He said something like he tries

to reverse funnel once in a while.

You know, like flip it upside down, get the single early and

then try to figure it out. I know people who liked the

single early, but I think it's just because they have a bigger

bankroll than I do and they could just play the pick four or

something, you know? I like, yeah, you know.

Singly, when I do that, I'll single a horse that's probably

7:00 or 8:00 to 1:00 usually when I try.

To do that but. Barry, you want?

To be proud of you for a second. You ready to be proud of you?

Yeah. OK, let's do it.

Haskell weekend, your boy. Hits the middle, pick five, 2200

bucks, like $55, fifty, $6 ticket.

Like we're rolling, we're rolling.

We're doing it right. We're doing it.

I'm like, all right, late pick four.

What are we gonna do here? And I'm like, I gotta get

smoking on top. It's time to single a 12 to one

dog. Your boy single calls me one.

Played it for a dollar because I could hit for 1200 bucks.

That's how you do that, people. How about that?

That's right. No chalk.

Zone. Well, we played the chalk.

At the end, but that's OK. Yeah, yeah.

You hit the 12 to one early, get that out of the way and then,

you know, get that. Something I always say is.

Nobody remembers chalk players. They always remember.

Always remember the guy that gave you a 20 to one shot, Never

the guy that gave you the three to five shot.

Yeah, that idiomatic. I'm serious.

Just do it. You'll cash tickets.

Yeah. No, no, they don't.

Remember that guy. You're right, they don't.

Well, he is. Barry Spears at Urban

Handicapper. Odd Twitter, Man.

I I think I have to ask because I've had you on several times

and we haven't gotten into it. You had a wedding anniversary

this week and I just it is it so 10 years, dude, not a like zero

and five anniversary here, right.

So ends with a zero. We got a 10 made it a decade.

Who's more surprised, her parents or you, that you made it

10 years? I would say probably me.

OK, All right, there it. Is Yeah, man, we're coming up.

I was my my dating history. Before was, was a mess.

So you know, I, I'm lucky and I'm happy.

I'm, I love my wife to death. It, it's just it things couldn't

be better. I know I had the, the health

issues earlier, but yeah, we're past that.

I feel good. Everybody's good and life is

good. I I can't complain at all.

Awesome. Well, there you go.

Well. Great.

Are you a celebrate on the day of couple or no?

I mean, we're 10. Years, man, we don't do that.

Like, we went out to dinner last Friday, actually.

OK, Yeah, yeah, the weekend celebration.

I understand. Yeah, we went Fleming.

'S and, and, you know, had a little good time down in Orlando

and then, you know, a little little post on the day.

You know, actually we celebrated our home anniversary too,

because we bought our home on the same date as our

anniversary. So we moved into our house.

How about that? Yeah.

I like all of that. Barry Spears.

I like that. How?

About that stuff. Man.

That is good stuff man all. Right, ten years married.

If you need marriage advice, he's at Urban Handicapper.

And you know, if you need a betting advice, he's also Hey, I

got, I got it. Right for you.

Get somebody that knows you play horses and knows you love it and

can accept that. Other than that, all bets are

off. And.

Figure out everything else that's.

Right. Well, she was a.

She was a teller at Orlando Highlight.

That's where we met. So she knew I played Forza and

she was wondering why I was going to the window cashing all

the time. And then that's how we started

talking, you know? You know, I tip her Weld and

stuff like that. So, yeah.

And our first date was a WWENXT match.

How about that? And I'm not even a a wrestling

guy. Somebody gave me a ticket, then

we went. I I.

Don't. I don't care where the first

date is. If the marriage lasts 10 years,

I like it's, it's fine. Like indeed.

We sat in a we sat in a kiddie pool at 8 hot dogs and now we've

been married 10 years. Awesome.

Good for you. Whatever works.

Whatever works. Oh man.

That's great. Well, there you go.

Well, 10 years for the for the Spears, if you will.

So there you go. All right.

Well, good luck this weekend, Barry.

I guess I should ask you who's your Whitney pick?

Whitney pick. Bright.

Bright work OK Bright. Future bright future.

Not bright work, right, Right. So yeah.

I'm I'm grabbing the yeah, the 9 horse bright future.

That's right. Yep, it was either him or

Croopy, but OK, Croopy. Too.

OK. Yeah, Pletcher's gonna win the

race. You guys OK.

All right, dude, I wonder if Mott's about to pull a fast one

and it turns out Arthur's ride is really good.

Yeah, right. Like, just.

I mean it's. It's possible he's done it in

the past, didn't he? Oh, I forget the he just did it

the Ohio Derby. Yeah, he did.

No, I mean like he just did. I mean like, no, it's it's

tough, just nails, man. And he looked good coming back.

I mean, the horses betting Down's got to run to the Travers

now. That horse looked good.

He looked like he belonged. Yeah, he.

Definitely did. I thought that anyway, back when

we did that show, the Ohio Derby, I think I picked him,

didn't I? What a crappy.

What a crappy, crappy day that ended up being.

As far as like I, I just like those paper.

Prices were so ridiculous and Barry, you could have gone all

all. All all and made money.

I mean like honestly I it just, it was one of those didn't pay

like. 40,000 two people split the pick five yeah.

Unreal dude. The winner?

Of that first. Race Barry, I'm not kidding.

I've heard the joke like, oh, you could have picked that horse

with a Ouija board and like it that that race was offensive to

Ouija boards. Like there's no chance I was

like you. Know honestly, looking at that

race I was like how is the I I I was like how's this horse still

in the lead at the top of the stretch and just kept.

Going just kept going his right. You like that sometimes.

As they say, it do be like that. Sometimes you're totally right

about that, man. Oh, man.

All right. Well, he's Barry Spears.

He's the urban handicap for the sniper.

We called him Barry on this show.

So, Barry, appreciate it, man. Happy anniversary.

We will catch up with you down the line, I am sure.

Thank you for making time, and I mean it.

Thanks for making time on a Friday afternoon.

Anytime. Thank you.

So. Much.

You guys are more than gracious with me.

All right, Barry. We appreciate it.

Tolerant, I should say. Tolerant.

Tolerant. It's a better word.

There's a lot of tolerance on the horse.

Racing happy, I appreciate. It all right buddy, We'll talk

to you soon. All right, the urban handicapper

or the sniper, the Berry, the Berry Spears, 10 years, man, How

about that? I'm going to go ahead and add

Zach to the stage here just to make fun of him.

So I hear that you are not back in school.

Zach is essentially the things that I'm hearing.

All right, Zach's not there all. Right, I thought I'd try.

Well, I'm Lou Rebeau. Thanks to Barry Spears.

Thanks to Kevin Kerstein for joining me for this edition of

the Horse Racing Happy Hour back at it on Thursday next week.

And I'm not going to lie, I haven't looked at what those

races are going to look like. You can hear me indict as well

on the Kentucky Racing Spotlight on ESPN 680.

Check out the podcast center around the Horse Racing Happy

Hour. Tons of tons of things going on

there as well. Got my interview with Rusty

Arnold up and I've got an interview with Matthew to stand

us up as well. We talked to Danis the last

night ahead of You'll be OK ahead of Whitney weekend and his

the anniversary of his son sweeping the pick six.

Zack the producer Zack joins us here to close the show.

Have your children decided to behave?

No, no, one of them just slammed the door as he ran away.

So how about that? The fun of working from home.

There you go. And Barry, 10 years married.

Are we impressed or are we old hat for that now?

I mean, dude, anybody who makes 10 years, that is rock star.

Yeah. You're balling out.

That's right. Yeah.

Yeah. I mean, you know, nothing

compared to the 17 that I've got and the 20 what that you've got,

but you know, 21 and 19 days. Yeah.

Yeah, exactly. So I'll look.

I look. Forward to my wife buying me

absolutely nothing for our 21st anniversary.

Oh, yeah, me too. She'll say something like, oh,

we were in Italy this summer. Wasn't that enough?

And I, I don't know why women, is your wife like this too?

Where where it's like you're eating tacos and she's like,

didn't you have tacos yesterday? And it doesn't matter to you.

It doesn't matter at all. Yeah.

And it's. I don't, I I think women do

that, but the opposite for, like, life events.

It's like, hey, it's my birthday.

What'd you get me? She's like, we just went out to

dinner a week and a half ago. It's like, no, no, no, that's

not. It's not what we're doing here.

So I imagine that's what's gonna happen on our anniversary coming

up here. So there you go.

Pretty much. We're gonna get out of here.

Keep this one right around 45 minutes.

Looyer Bow producer Zack, Thanks to Barry Spears and of course

Kevin Kirstein from Churchill Downs at Ellis Park for best

podcast and horse racing folks. There you go.

Which one the the one that Kevin does ours horse racing.

There he does. There you go.

He's eating on air and I'm Lou Rebeau.

This has been the horse racing happy hour.