Keeneland Opening Weekend ’24 | Dan Issel

Life is good, all right. It is an October 3rd edition of

the Horse Racing Happy Hour. I'm Louis Rabo on my back porch

in Louisville, KY Somewhere in his basement in Denver, Co is

the Hall of Famer. His name is Dan Essel joins us

on the show. Dan, welcome back.

I wanted to ask just to get this part out of the way.

You have three, you have three kids, you have a son, you have a

daughter and you have Keeneland Race Course.

Where does Keeneland fit in the hierarchy of your three kids?

Well, it depends on how they're treating me.

I. I I hear you.

Sheridan is taking us to dinner tonight.

She's buying, so she's now ahead of Keeneland.

No question. God, I'm not so sure.

There it is. The greatest race meet in

America starts starts on Friday at Keeneland.

Well, and frankly, if you want to talk about that, meet Dan,

it's this weekend is really the star of This is the Show, is it

not? Yeah, it, you know, because of

the of the where where the Breeders Cup is situated, Louis,

it has to be the first week because a lot of these horses

will come back and go to Del Mar and run in in the Breeders Cup.

So, you know, a lot of these races that we're going to be

talking about are prep races for their next start out at Del Mar.

All right, well, he is Dan Isel, he's the Hall of Famer.

He joins us here because they're running at Keeneland, people.

I have nothing else. That's why he's here 'cause he

loves Keeneland. And when I think Keeneland, I

think of Dan. All right, so we've seen a lot

of different races getting ready for this Breeders' Cup, Dan and

you, you told me that you were not interested in spending a

weekend with me in San Diego, which I understand.

It's OK. Here's here's what's hilarious.

I hope you understand this. So Dan and I did a radio show

for over a year and a half here in the Louisville market.

And one of the things that we do not have in common is that I

enjoy cigars and Dan does not. OK, so we have that very much.

And not only does Dan not like them, like can you kind of smell

me smoking it here? And we're like 6 states away.

You know what? I can taste it.

We're, we're, we're 1100 miles apart and I can, I, I, I not

only do I not like cigars, Louie, I think I might be

allergic to them because somebody can be smoking a cigar.

I don't I've seen it. And I and I can taste it.

So, boy, you have your cigar, I'll have my Budweiser and we'll

get. Oh, I love it.

All right. Well, Dan with the Budweiser is

the classic, but Dan talking Keelan, even more classic.

We've seen some horses run getting ready for this Breeders'

Cup, man, on the classic side. Dan, do you have a feeling about

this field, about any of these horses?

We see some Sanador get it done at Santa Anita, but he's not

going to have that kind of stretch at Del Mar.

Does anybody stand out in this field to you?

Or we might have a three-year old win it this year.

I, I think it's a good chance we have a three-year old win it and

I think that forever young, the Japanese horse who just missed

by a few inches of winning the Kentucky Derby, won his prep for

the Classic in Japan yesterday. City of Troy.

You know, there have been a lot of good horses that have gone

through Coolmore in, in Ireland and they talk about City of Troy

with the very best of them. And then fierceness.

You know, his last two races at at Saratoga and he's supposed to

be training great. I, yeah, I, I would, I'd take

the three-year olds. If you give me the three-year

olds over the field, I'd take that all day long.

There you go. I think that makes sense.

We had the Kentucky Downs meet. Does Danis will play Kentucky

Downs before we head to Keeneland?

Not well. I play everything, you know

that. I do know that.

Yeah, I play everything, but I I don't go crazy at Kentucky

Downs. Not I mean, it's a great meet.

The purses are, I mean, just unbelievable.

And the setting is kind of, you know, country fair setting.

I enjoy it, but it looks to me that horses either like it or

they can't stand it and so that makes for me, that makes it very

difficult to to handicap Kentucky Downs.

O for the last 53 are Kentucky Downs runners at Breeders' Cup

races in California. I know that's a random stat,

Dan, but we did see Cogburn run off the floor again at Kentucky

Downs. Could he could he toss that?

He's he seems like kind of horse, like a buck that trend.

Yeah, I, I, I think of all you know, and of course we're a

month out. We don't know the fee, we don't

know the post positions. But right now, if you if you

made me answer that question, I'd say Cogburn was the most

likely winner of all of the Breeders Cup horses.

Want to welcome in our friends on the Sporting Tribune feed as

well? You can find me every Saturday

with my preview of Southern California racing out there as

well, so check themoutsportingtribune.com.

We've got all the coverage out there as well, Dan.

Dan loves it when I mention things like that because Dan is

always convinced I need more to do.

That's really, you know, Dan's bit.

Hey, Louis, I know you're not doing this for your health.

Don't. I don't think anything for my

health. How about that?

I drink a lot of water. That's about it.

But we'll get into it in a minute here.

But, you know, has anything stood out to you?

You and I haven't had a conversation since the

Pennsylvania Derby, I think. I don't know why.

And I had John Lindo on from Thoroughbred LA last week.

There seems to be a downplaying of how good of a year sees the

Gray his head. He comes out, he wins the grade

one at the Pennsylvania Derby, he wins the Preakness, he wins

the Pat de Mile 2 weeks before that.

I in an era, Dan, when we are just begging trainers to run

their horses, man, Lucas sends that horse out, He runs them.

He's ran, he ran 9 times between, you know, February and

September. That's the kind of horse that I

can get behind. Why do you think he's getting so

little credit? You know, I, I, I think he's,

he's just a tad below the best 3 year olds.

I mean, he's, he's, when he's run well, he's run very well.

And you make a great point about, about coach Lucas.

You know, he wanted to run him in the Travers and the, and the

people said, no, no, no, no, no, no.

We're, we're going to the Pennsylvania Derby.

You know what happens, Lou, with some of these horses, and it

certainly has happened with this horse, is when they syndicate

them or buy or a farm buys them for stud duty, they put kickers

in. And so by winning the

Pennsylvania Derby is a Grade 1. So they got just as much money.

Now I'm not talking about the purse.

I'm talking about the, the purchasing of the horse for stud

duty. They got just much money winning

the Pennsylvania Derby as they would have the traverse.

So you know, you, you get a horse like that, he's already

been sold for stud duty. You understand why they just

kind of pick and choose their places.

With his running style, Dan, where he needs the front, that's

his style. He wants to be out there.

Get him on the lead, you know, Jaime Torres, you know, shake

the reins, whatever they need. I think he'd be better off

because it is A2 turn race at Del Mar going into Breeders' Cup

Dirt Mile rather than in the Classic.

Do you agree with me? Yes, yeah, although, you know,

there's there's been some people that that realize how tough that

classic is going to be that have already started going the the

other direction. I I think I read National

Treasure is going in the Dirt Mile, did I not?

Yes. Yes, that's right.

So, you know, you put up that kind of money and you're running

for championships. There are no easy spots, Lou.

Yeah, Now I hear you. As far as the two year old races

at Keeneland, I wanted to ask you about this before we get

into the actual handicapping about it.

I actually think with the Delmar layout, with that very short

stretch that they have out there in San Diego, I, I think the

early finish line at Keeneland could actually give us a good

idea of who will be ready for that race either on the Philly

side or on the regular, you know, on the open juvenile side

more than in other places. You know, if you're at a

Churchill Downs with a long stretch or a San Anita with a

long stretch, that kind of thing.

I think Delmar and Keeneland mirror each other that way.

Do you think there's a chance that we perhaps see the juvenile

Phillies or the the juvenile Champ this weekend?

You know, that's a great point, Lou, because when you have that

short stretch, you've got to start getting those horses.

You know, on the turn, you've got to start making your run on

the turn. If you wait till you get into

the stretch, you probably aren't going to get there.

And so I think that's why, you know, the futurity at Keeneland

to me is a better than the champagne because the champagne,

you know, you have the longer stretch at Aqueduct and but they

can they can come from all over. But one thing I'm anxious to see

tomorrow, Lou, is the race at in California so far, you know,

it's always the California 2 year olds against the rest of

the country. And so far I haven't seen any

any 2 year olds take a great big step out in California.

So I'll be interested to see the two year old races at Santa

Anita tomorrow. Yeah, it'll, I'm with you on

that. I, I think, you know, Baffert's

got, I think three of the seven in the American Pharaoh and I

haven't, I'll be honest, I haven't looked at the Philly

race yet, but I it, it will be interesting that way.

I was joking with John Lindo last week from from LA.

He's in Carlsbad closure in San Diego.

But that, you know, we all, we all get mad that we see Baffert

3 out of seven horses there, but we don't say anything with Chad

Brown has five horses in a turf field.

Well, the difference is the difference is Chad's may have 5,

but it's out of seven. In Baffert's case, 3 out of 6.

I think he's got 3IN I I'm pretty sure he's got three in

the Philly race too. Sure.

Yeah, I'm positive you're right. Yeah, of course I is.

Dan, as he's with us here on the Horse Racing Happy Hour and

October 3rd edition of the show. Appreciate that very much.

You know, going through this Breeders' Cup stuff and trying

to figure it out as we get to Keeneland, you point out their

their beats are always going to be front loaded essentially

because it's a month before Derby in the spring.

It's a month before the Breeders Cup this weekend.

A a couple of winning ends on the Breeders Cup side.

Is there one in particular that you think, man, maybe the

jessamine or you know, race maybe on Saturday that stands

out as like a, you know, we talked about the juvenile

juvenile Phillies being potentially because of the

stretch, you know, solid predictors.

Is there another one? Is there a turf race that you

always try to watch? You know, I, I was going to ask

you about that. You know, up on top of the

program there's a little diagram of the track that gives the

distances of the race. And for on my program, some of

those diagrams were in green. What?

What does that mean? Turf, Dan, it's turf.

That means. Oh, I see.

So wait a second, Keeneland actually has a turf course they

can use? That's how you do jokes, folks.

That's how you do jokes. That's what that is.

That's what that is. I like it.

I, I got to say, the poor people at Churchill Downs that have to

deal with me are so tired of me making jokes about that.

Dan, It is, it is stunning. I feel so bad having to deal

with me. They're like, hey, I'm going to

show up and talk about your track.

I'm like, you don't have a turf course.

Especially Lou, since I think it cost him $10 million to put this

thing in and it hasn't been right since then.

I think we're going on four years.

Yeah, it's it's a stunning, a stunning, stunning development

at at what should be, I mean, with the money flowing around

this place right now, Dan, in this state, I mean, it just

seems like the kind of thing that we should have under

control for sure. But here we are.

Question though, you mentioned the one I'm anxious about,

that's the Jasmine that the two year old on the grass.

You know that just handicapping that very quickly it there is a

number of ways you can go. I'm I'm pulling for Bregman, the

third for Houston, who got eliminated yesterday and is now

a free agent. But he's got a justified Philly

in there that Rusty Arnold trains that I'm going to kid.

That's that's who I'd like to see just because you know when

when somebody's new to the game. Not not Rusty, Rusty's been in

the game 100 years, but Bregman, you like to see him have a

little success when they spend that kind of money.

So that's that's the Philly I'm looking for.

Our guy Steve thought that the green on the form met the tarmac

at Bluegrass International across the street.

Dan, there you go, one of our listeners here in Louisville, by

the way, tomorrow if you want to come hang out with us, we'll be

over at J Shepard Cigars, a remote I never would have done

when I was hosting with Dan. You can come find us on

Bardstown Road. And then Friday night, a

Breeders' Cup will be in San Diego at Excalibur Cigar.

You can come find us there as well.

And of course, October 29th right here in Louisville, BA

Colonial. We'll have our Breeders' Cup

preview out there Tuesday night before Thanksgiving across from

Iroquois Park starting at 6:00. No cost to get into that thing.

So come say hi. You can, you can Heckle me.

That's actually something you can do.

How about that? You can't Heckle me when I'm

over there. Come to these live events.

You can Heckle me there in the South end.

Want to remind you about our friends at Manscape.

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Have you opened the thing? Yeah, I because when when you

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There it is, all right, Dan Issel uses manscapemanscape.com

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as well. I've actually been playing that

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excellent products over there, and I really appreciate them

jumping on the show with us. Let's get into that

handicapping, though, Dan. I know that you are a champion

at the bit, as they say around here.

Or that can I bring up something?

Of course. I'm very disappointed in you.

We last Saturday night was the Iowa Bread Champion Day at the

at Des Moines at Prairie Meadows.

Yeah, and you didn't ask me about my horse?

We had talked about it several times before that I have.

I have the receipts here. What are you doing?

How did your horse do? Let's go.

How about that? How does it feel to own an Iowa

bred? Dan, have you made it?

You know I'm. Kidding.

I'm kidding. It's awesome.

I I can't, I can't say enough about Prairie Meadows.

They had, they had eight races that night for Iowa Breds, 2

sprints for older Phillies and older horses 50,000.

Then they had 6 races, 110,000 for, you know, 2 year olds,

Colson Phillies, 3 year old Colson Phillies.

And it was a it was a great night and our, our little Philly

won the sorority won it pretty easily.

Louis, we're really excited. I we've got a really nice Iowa

bred. I don't know if we have anything

more than that, but we're going to find out.

The sorority, how familiar were you?

Were you with those when you were at Kentucky?

Being big man on campus. The sororities, now, they all

came to the Pike House. That's how you do that, folks.

All right, so Dan Isle and his Budweiser, let's get into some

handicapping here. I will start Friday.

We're going to do both days. Dan, I know I sent you all the

info on this. We'll start with the Phoenix.

Dan, did you know that is the oldest stakes race in the United

States, started in 1831? You know, I I did know that and

I and I don't know why, but I guess I guess because it's a

Keeneland. So yeah, the Phoenix has been

around for a long, long time. And you know, it looks good on a

on a horse's resume to win a race like that.

A little bit. So 1831, I thought.

I thought the dinner party of Piblico was a little older, but

I guess no, the Phoenix outdated.

Hard to do, frankly, Yeah. Missed the first one, we were in

the playoffs but I was there for the second one.

Dan was there in 1831 at the Phoenix.

I think the name of the track was the Kentucky.

The Kentucky Racing Association was like the name of the track

too. And then they built Keeneland

and move things over there. But it is what it is for sure.

Hey, the Jessamine is race 7 starts the late pick 4 on

Friday. Or excuse me, the jessamine.

Good Lord, the Phoenix. It's a grade 26 furlongs on the

dirt, 3 and up in this one. Dan, your boy Brad Cox has an

interesting entry here in federal judge.

And I think if people are looking at this sequence, Dan,

this might be a play against if you're trying to maximize your

ticket. But do you think he's got a

serious shot here? I, I do, you know it, it

doesn't. He's won three out of five and

you know it. Last year he won his first two

as maiden and as one other and then ran in a Grade 1 and, and

kind of caved in, but they they brought him back.

He had two starts at Saratoga. The last one was was very

impressive. And you know, Brad's not going

to run a horse if he doesn't think he has a shot.

Now it looks like it looks, looks like he has to be on the

lead to to be able to be successful.

Is he going to be on the lead against a horse like Nakatomi or

some of the other speed horses in here?

But no, I, I agree with you. I think I think he's one.

If you're playing horizontally, I think he's 1.

You definitely have to use. What do you make of Nakatomi?

We haven't seen this horse go back-to-back in a very, very

long time. To his credit though, he's

always in high level graded stakes company.

So this is a horse that maybe has some excuses, Dan, because

he is just running against top, top horses.

When you look at the past performances, it's Sibelius,

it's Elite Power, it's Hoist, the Gold, straight, no Chaser,

those kinds of horses. Do you think he can go

back-to-back here? Do you trust him?

I do and, and I think I mean, he would be my pick here, Lou,

because one of one of grade one at Saratoga the last time out.

But he's coming back. I mean, that was the end of

July. This is the 1st of October.

So he's coming back in a couple of months.

So that's kind of unusual for him.

And, and Wesley's another one. If, you know, he's not going to

lead a horse over there just so we can, you know, have something

in the paddock. And so I, yeah, I expect this

horse to to fire big time and, and he would be my my top pick

here. I've got the six as my long shot

play here. 30 to one for Ricardo Santana Junior and Glenn Wisner.

Why not? Comes in off of a really good

run in a six furlonger at Churchill Downs.

Ran out of space right before that, but they ran that race in

a sub 109 Dan. I think that kind of speed can

win at Keeneland. Do you think there's a chance

that that's a horse that hits the board here at least?

Possibly, and the reason is he's one of the horses in here that

doesn't have to be up on the pace.

He's a horse that can come from 345 lengths off of it and you

know, if they go ridiculously fast early and the race falls

apart, he could come along and pick up some pieces.

Hear Me Song is in here. The two horse Edgar Morales gets

them out. That horse is never finished

worse than second in four races at Keeneland.

Do you look for that with horses?

I know Keeneland's a limited meet in the spring and fall, but

do you look for horses that like the course there?

I do, I, I, I, I really do, because again, Keeneland, not

only on the dirt track, but on the grass as well.

There are some, I agree. With the grass especially.

We just seem to pick it up. We'll talk about one later on

that is 2 for two at Keeneland and and is 6 to one on the

morning line. So I think you definitely have

to use horses that, that look like they, you know, they, they,

they have proven they can run on the on the surface.

Producer Zach chimes in. He says I'm a bum.

Dan, do you agree? Yes, 100%.

There you go, Zach. You have the approval of the

Hall of Famer. How about that?

The Grade 2 jessamine will follow in Race 8.

There's $350,000 in a berth in the Breeders Cup on the line

here. Dan.

I think this is a tough race, really interesting field.

And one of the, the, you know, one of the things that happens,

Dan, is, you know, in the spring we're watching for three-year

olds that can go Sprint to route and become Derby horses with two

year olds in this kind of race. And we're trying to figure out

where for many of them who's going to stretch out and not

mind going the extra turn, going the extra distance.

I I'll go ahead and go first here.

I thought the nine horse in here in the Jessamine totally

justified. Maybe Franco's going to be in

town to ride this horse again. Dan for Rusty Arnold took her

two tries, two tries on dirt to find out that they wanted to try

on on grass. She goes ahead and breaks her

maiden in a Listed stakes. I love that go in the two turns

there at Saratoga over firm go wins that race.

Manny Franco in town. If she takes a step forward at

all, Dan, I think she's got a legit shot here.

Who did you land on top here? Yeah, no, that was the one I was

talking about earlier, Lou. That's that's owned by by

Bregman, the the Astros third baseman.

No, I I think you're right. They it according to Rusty, he

was going to run this Philly down at Kentucky at Kentucky

Downs in a made, you know, because the pots are so big in

at Kentucky Downs is bigger than the pot for the for the Johnson

Saratoga. So he was going to run this

Philly in a in a maiden race and and evidently Bregman called him

up and said that, hey, what about this steak race up at

Saratoga? And so that that's where they

went the horse when I, when I look at races, Lou, that are a

mile and a 16th, I like to see a horse that has run the last

quarter of a mile and 16th, those two together around 30

seconds. You look at this horse she ran,

she ran her last that last little bit in 2929.

So yeah, I, I agree. I, I don't know she'll get that

slow a pace early on, but she really closed and I, I, I like

her and, and you have to look at a couple of these maidens.

The the bolt Doro of Brad Cox, number six, the broken maiden or

her maiden rather at at Kentucky Downs and and then the two Isle

of Capri broke her maiden at Kentucky Downs rather easily and

15 and two. That's racehorse time for 6 1/2

furlongs. So I I think there's a lot of

different ways you could go in here, but I'm going to be I'm

with you. I'm going to be rooting for

Totally Justified. Smaller barn, but Joseph Lee has

a mayday ready. And here the 8/2 for two

lifetime aided up in Kentucky Downs once Frankie Natori

figured out that track, by the way, Dan, forget about it.

That was it. Curtains for sure. 8 to one.

I don't think we're going to get 8 to one on this horse because

of the Datori connection. You think she's got a shot here?

Yeah, no, I think there's all kinds of horses that have a

shot. You know, the the buyers, if you

pay any attention to the buyers, the buyers aren't as good as

some of these other horses in here.

But, you know, sure, absolutely she has a shot.

Yeah, the the buyers coming out of Kentucky DOMS, good luck

putting those together. I don't know how they do it and

how it translates to Keelan. So I'm not going to lose much

sleep over that. We'll move on to the Alsebides.

It is the grade one Darley Alsebides miles and 16th on the

dirt. 2 year old fillies here, 600K in the Kitty.

Breeders' Cup win and in race here Dan as well.

The late, excuse me, late Daily Double starts here in race 9

with this one. Where did you land here and how

do you go about trying to figure out these two year old races

when horses do step forward? Are you leaning on more on

trainers, on pedigree on both? What is Dan Nissel doing?

On both in this in this case, you know, I'm a big Brad Cox man

and I I I think immersive has has this feel at at her mercy

night quit. Nyquist is just having a

phenomenal year. I think his I think his stud fee

this past year was 85,000. Get ready for about 150 next

year because he has had a spectacular year And Bernardini

Maher, you can't get any better broodmare sire than than

Bernardini. You mentioned Franco the last

race. He's here.

I'd be really surprised if anything else wins this race

except Immersive. OK, wow, OK.

I have the six in here is an interesting one and quick kick

out of the Tom Amos barn and we talked about Dan, I just asked

you that question about pedigree or about trainers.

This is me just trusting, you know, a Tom Amos who I think of

as as one of the great developers, especially young

Phillies. You know, from 2:00 to 3:00.

We saw that with Serengeti Empress, not Swiss guy, never.

So we've seen this before with him.

I think she's interesting here, especially a four to one Dylan

Davis. Is anyone having a better sort

of personal year than a guy like Dylan Davis?

No, he's and what's funny Lou, is how long it's taking him to

get to this point because I mean, he's the he's no spring

chicken. He's been around for a while and

all the all of the sudden he's getting he's getting on.

I mean, Charlie Applebee's using him for crying out loud.

And so you know, he's no, whatever he's doing, keep doing

it because he's he's doing great.

You know the interesting thing about quick kick glue is this is

Mackenzies first crop and and this Philly sold for $550,000 as

a yearling. And so you know, all all of the

things are in the right places. That's that's for sure.

If a first crop sire is going to bring $550,000.

Would you be surprised coming out of the mud if a horse like

quiet side the Seven here takes a step forward out of that spin

away? Yeah, possibly, but I but she

got beat a length and a quarter by Immersive who I think going

two turns is going to take a huge step forward.

So I, you know, I'm I'm still with Immersive all.

Right, well, let's move to Saturday then.

Dan, I'm going on Saturday. Are you actually jealous of

something about my life? Yes, I'm very, I'm very jealous.

I'm I go, I go to Prairie Meadows and you go to Keeneland.

How how the tables have turned, young Danissel.

How about that, buddy? You like that?

I like that a lot. All right, I'm actually jealous

you got to go to Prairie Meadows.

So there's that. All right, so let's go ahead and

get into Saturday. Is this the best day on

Keeneland's race calendar this year?

I say yes. Yeah, especially for the fall.

You know, bluegrass. Bluegrass Day.

Bluegrass makes days awesome. Would would rival it I think.

But no. In the fall.

This is far and away the best, the best day.

There you go. We will start with the Woodford.

It is a 5 1/2 for a long, excuse me, Sprint on the turf there.

That's what the green is for, Dan, and that's what a Keeneland

has to be. So though the turf course at

Keeneland, I got it. They will be using the turf

course. I like a long shot in here, Dan

in Coppola. I think that this horse didn't

like Kentucky Downs last out. We're gonna get 20 to one on

this horse. Last time we saw this horse flat

racing on turf, it ran a really good second at Ellis Park to

Charcoal, who's also in this field.

I'll take 20 to one all day. This is probably my win place,

kind of bed of the day, Dan, where you know, I'm just, you

know, pretty easy 20 and 20 win and place that kind of thing on

this horse. Hoping that Tyler gets this

horse up in this spot. But I do think there are some

other horses in here that are obvious our shot.

No nay, Hudson, no balls, etcetera.

I didn't mention some of the other really obvious good horses

in here. Where did Dan Iselin?

You know what? You're going to get all of 20 to

one on that horse. You might get third, you might

get 30 to one. Let's go.

I need all of it. This was the horse I was

mentioning before, Lou Arzak, who who you know is has been

there or there abouts around some really nice horses.

But look at look at his record at Keeneland.

He's 2 for two. He won the Shakertown earlier in

the spring and he won the the the Woodford won the same race

last year. So I'm definitely lose using him

it it might be a little too early to give up on no balls.

You know it. He won the Breeders Cup Turf

Sprint last year at Santa Anita when we were there and saw this.

And then he's off for 9 for nine months and he comes back and at

Saratoga gets beat by some of the horses in here by 3/4 of a

length. And we were talking about

Kentucky Downs, although it was Cogburn didn't look like he was

crazy about Kentucky Downs. I wouldn't give up on no balls

just yet. So Arzak did me a huge favor

this year, Dan, and that was by not winning the Wolf Hill

because I had Arzak and I had nothing better.

And I got a solid $2200 out of the middle pick 5 on Haskell Day

at Monmouth because Arzak didn't win.

How about that instead of I think his payout was like 800

bucks. So he did me a favor that day.

How about that? There you go.

I got to thank you. Have you been to the Haskell?

And he was, yeah. I got to get you out there.

It's a fun. That's a fun day, man.

It's a great day. Monmouth is a great place.

Oh, that's fantastic. Do you know what it is?

It's Keeneland in New Jersey. That's what Monmouth is.

Yeah, I wouldn't go that far. Oh, a New Jersey version?

Come on. What are we doing?

What would you do? For New Jersey, it's terrific.

Are you still mad at the Nets? Admit it.

Are you still mad at the Nets? Yes, OK, just checking.

Look at this picture. That's the Kentucky Colonel

championship picture I eat. It, Doctor J, How about that?

Eat it. Yeah.

It wasn't for Doctor J and the Nets.

I'd have two of these pictures. Eat it Doctor J, how about that?

Do you worry at all about the jockey change to Arzak on

Saturday over to Hwy. Torres rather than Irad running?

Or is the turf spread a little bit less work to do?

No, this kid can ride, Lou. I agree.

Torres can ride. No, I don't mind that at all.

If anybody hasn't seen it, go to our YouTube page, Horse Racing

Happy Hour. We sat down with Jaime and he

walked us through all of the stages of the Preakness.

We did a video with him, like a step by step of that race.

Go back and watch that. It's Evergreen content.

It's really, really good. Jaime was really, really good

that day. Mike's still in that episode,

Dan. So maybe you don't want to watch

it, but other people can't. You know, that's a that's an OK

thing. There you go.

We'll move on then to the Thoroughbred Club of America.

This is a grade 264 longer on the dirt there.

Phillies and Mayors 3 and up spot in the Breeders Cup, of

course, on the Philly and Mayor Dirt Sprint in this case.

Dan, where did you lay it in this one?

Bright work and and I'll give you a couple reasons why going

one turn Lou. This Philly's undefeated.

The only two times she lost was when they tried to get her to go

a mile and a 16th last year getting her ready for the

Breeders Cup. She's undefeated and she's only

had one race this year. Remember, she was supposed to

race earlier at the Saratoga beat flipped in the paddock and

that's an automatic scratch. So she's only had one race and

she got up in the Pyrus and, and one by a neck.

She's one for two at Keeneland. She's one for one at Keeneland

going one turn. I I think I think bright work

get this done. You know, we talked about Dylan

Davis earlier. John Ortiz is having a fine year

too, frankly, right? And so, you know, we see his

horses popping up more and more in these kinds of spots.

Louis Seize will get them out there on on Bright Work.

I looked at the six horse here as well.

Dan, looking at Zeitlos, I think she's an interesting one for

Steve Asmussen. When I think of Asmussen's best

horses, by the way, I think of 6 furlong sort of sprinters.

And so I do think there's something there.

Do you think Zeitlos got a shot here?

Yeah, I, I think it's got a shot.

The one thing I don't like is she's stepping up in company.

I know she won the open mind last time, but that's a, that's

a listed stake. The time before that she was on

the grass. But you know, she's been pretty

good. No, she's been really good on

those those races. But when she when she steps up

in the graded company, it gets a little deep.

So. But yeah, sure, she has a

chance. Your buddy Rusty Arnold has red

carpet ready in this one. Any chance of a return to form

for her? You know, I really don't

understand what what what they were doing.

I guess I know you know, she's, I mean, she's, she's a grade 3

winner, no, a grade 2 winner on the earth, grade one steak place

on the dirt. And I, you know, she didn't, she

ran pretty poorly in the distaff at on Derby Day.

And then I didn't, I don't know why they, you know, being by

Oscar performance, who's the son of kittens Joy.

Maybe they just said, well, let's let's try the grass.

And, you know, it was it was all right.

But yeah, she's going to have to, she's going to have to

return to what she was earlier this year and and last year to

have any shot here. Yeah, it's interesting.

I talked to Rusty actually about her and he said, look, because

of the breeding, we intended for her to be a turf horse.

But because there was no turf course at the time of Churchill

Downs, they just had to go with her on the dirt.

And they got lucky that she loved it.

She was good to go. And they just kept running her

in those spots. And then of course, they try her

on the Oaks Trail for Gal Devona Dale, etcetera, Gulf Street

Park, get her up here for that a bell.

She wins that race 7 furlongs. That was last year, of course.

And so I think they, they, I don't want to say they lucked

into her being good on the dirt, but frankly, they lucked into

her. We're being good on the dirt.

And so I think sometimes, sometimes it's just circumstance

and the horse does that. And so I, I'm looking for her to

have a really nice return to form here because I, I do think

this is a good spot for her. Not a great record of Keeneland,

of course, over one, but I, I'm interested to see her get back

into this. Your buddy Mike Smith is going

to be aboard Spirit Wind. I want people to watch that

horse stand because if you don't know Charlestown, 7 furlongs is

a full 2 turn race there. I think she's going to get back

to one turn here and really like it.

Yeah, now that's a great that's a great point.

He he shipped into Saratoga, had one, had one mount for for the

day and 1:00 and 1:00 the grade 2.

So, you know, Mike is another one.

Mike doesn't get on many horses anymore, but man, is he having a

nice year. He he he won the $1,000,000 race

and no and one of the two seven 50s last week at at Santa Anita.

Could be worse for sure. We'll move on to the next one.

The the first lady starts the late pick 4 on Saturday.

It's race 8. It's a mile on the turf,

$750,000 in this one. This is for Phillies and mares 3

and up as well. Dan Fun, fun group of of

Phillies and mares here. I laid it on the 8 horse here on

top in Chile flag the the other Chad Brown.

Oh no, don't do this. See, I don't I don't like This

is why you could never Co host this show because we would just

pick the same four horses and we'd go to bed.

I don't like that. And so tell me why you like

chili flag. Well, booty, say chili flag.

Yeah, Chili flag. Yeah.

Yeah, no, that's who I pick you. Look, look at the last race.

Look at the 11 horse White Bean who's seven to two in here.

Look how she just walked the dog.

You know, she changes from Pratt to to flow, but but look at that

race at Saratoga, how she walked the dog 49 and 2:13 and 3:00.

They come the last eighth in in 11.

And so chili flag had no shot because it was the pace was so

slow in that race. And at Tyler she gets Tyler.

You know, the other horse in here that I thought was

interesting. Lou was the two horse Tarara, if

you look at look down at her past performances, most of those

races have been against Colts. I think there's only three races

on her, on her form here and there's about 10 or 12 races.

There's only three races on the form that were against Philly's

and the last time out it was against Philly's.

It was a grade 3 at the Cora and and she won that.

She won that race. So, you know, if you don't, if

you want to go against Chad Brown, which is usually not a

very good idea, I think you could do worse than than Tarara

the two horse. Yeah, that that's a very

intentional ship by that group, you know, to to have her in this

spot. The horse has one going

left-handed, by the way, and in Ireland at Leperstown, so it's

not as though she's unfamiliar with that sort of thing over six

at the distance. But I'm with you, Dan.

I think that horse has a legitimate shot here.

What do you say about it? Like a Gina Romanica.

I'm interested in a horse like walkathon here, Dan.

Three straight wins, 4 for seven this year.

Do you give Walkathon much of a chance?

Yeah, I, you know, again, it's not the grade ones that some of

these other Phillies have been running in.

But you know, you're right. She's she's last time out, she

got the highest buyer of her career.

And so, you know, she's she's got a shot.

I wouldn't, I wouldn't have her in my top three, but but

stranger things have happened. There you go.

Ian Wilkes and Brian Hernandez junior have won four of their

last 11 races at Keeland together.

So something to watch for sure once we get to Saturday.

I just think they had just a fun a fun field, frankly.

I I mean, even even you know, special wand coming out of this

race in Kentucky Downs. I wouldn't be stunned if that,

you know, if that horse won this race.

Honestly, I think we're at like, you know, eleven horses here.

If nine of them one day and I don't think I'd be.

Surprised, yeah, no. And you know, I'm a pick four,

pick five player. And so it, you know, you, you

have to go pretty deep in this race because I think I have a

single in the next race. How about that?

Well let's get to it. That is the futurity.

If Dan this is single in a 2 year old races, you know it's

serious. This would make 2 days in a row

mile to 16th on the dirt. This is for open company 2 year

old 600K again and a Breeders' Cup bid again.

Grade one. The Claiborne folks sponsoring

this one. Dan, where did you land with the

two year olds? Yeah, I, I took the chalk, you

know, he he his first race at at Saratoga in the mud was ultra

impressive. He comes back in the in the

hopeful race that I watched live.

Obviously was was odds on and I I watched that race Lou and I

thought I thought he was a little green.

I thought he lost. I thought he lost some some

focus in that race. Two turns being by flatter

should hit him right between the eyes.

He's a 1,000,003 two year old in training sale.

I, I think, I think he's ferocious, has him over a barrel

here. I'm going a little off the board

here with a horse that's got good early speed and I think can

get either on the lead or right at it.

Coming off the turf is Tenacious Leader.

This is a son of Not This Time, Dan, how about that?

All right, Todd Pletcher sending this one in and I never consider

it an accident for Todd Pletcher to ship this kind of horse from

Saratoga to Keeneland. I love having Floral Giroux here

because I think his his best quality as a jockey.

Dan is his ability to get out front and rate and I think if he

can get this horse to rate, I think she'll like the move back

to dirt. That's a 21% angle for our guy,

Todd Pletcher. I don't know why he's our guy

all of a sudden, but he's our guy and he's obviously Todd

Pletcher. Good with two year olds as well.

Do you like that pic or are you gonna try to just?

No, we're going single. Here Yeah no, no I that would be

my second choice. It really good for those that

pay attention to this sort of thing.

Zulu Kingdom who beat him in neck last now came back and won

another steak at Aqueduct or Belmont at Aqueduct last

weekend. So Zulu Kingdom is is a is a

decent horse. He's more than decent.

He's a good horse. And so if if you like those kind

of comparisons and you have to like this horse.

The four Handsome Pants is the son of Daredevil.

Dan broke his maiden going this distance.

Does that mean much to you or, or you know that Kenny Mcpeek

immediately thought, let's get this horse over two turns at

Churchill Downs. Bounce back here.

Frankly, that horse's running style I think plays well for

this short stretch at Keeneland is gonna be near the front of

the pace in this one. I think the four at 12:50 is

very live here. Handsome Pants.

Yeah, I I would agree with that. I mean, anytime, anytime you can

have a 2 year old that can come out and break his maiden going

two turns. That's that's pretty impressive.

Usually you have to have a race or two under your belt ship that

took to win going two turns first time out.

He got a good buyer speed figure.

And you know, nobody's been hotter this year than Kenny and

and Brian. So I I like that pic.

We had, you know, we had an interesting day, you know,

around the Iroquois and the Pocahontas a couple weeks ago

here at Churchill Downs and the Saratoga horses finished on top

of the Ellis Park horses filled out all the rest of the, the

Super Fectas and that kind of thing.

Just as you're sort of watching the two year old programs

developed in are we very far off?

And I was, frankly, I interviewed when I was down at

Kentucky Downs this year. I interviewed Dale Romans for

the Kentucky Racing Spotlight, which is the shirt I'm wearing

today. And he said he thinks that the

Ellis Park program is going to get to a point where for

Kentucky based trainers, the purses are going to be at a

level where it's just simply not worth it to ship to Saratoga.

Do you think we'll stay though in a in an era for at least a

little while where there's still a lot of prestige and shipping

to Saratoga and that's where the best 2 year olds will be?

Sure. And and it it depends on your

ego, I think, quite frankly, because there's nothing like

winning a 2 year old maiden race that's at Saratoga.

I mean, that's people dream, dream about that.

But you know, it costs a lot of money to ship up there.

You're in Saratoga Springs, that cost a fortune to for your help

to find housing up there. And so it's a very expensive and

you know, it's just everything in New York is more expensive.

I mean, you have to pay this fee and you have to pay that fee and

you have to do this, you have to, to do that.

And so I, I agree with Dale. Dale told me of, of several

years ago that, you know, unless he knows he's got a champion, he

keeps them right here in Kentucky.

And I'll tell you who else does it, Lou is Brad.

Brad keeps two years down at Allison and the and the money,

the money is close. So to me it makes a lot of

sense. And I, you know, we're not

Saratoga 2 year olds yet at Ellis, but we're not far behind.

Yeah, I think it's I think it's going to get closer as we move

on. And that's an interesting change

of the dichotomy of that day where where you mentioned it

earlier in the show as we used to look to Santa Anita for that,

right. That was something where we were

watching the two year old series out in California.

And with the, you know, it's just, it's about money at the

end of the day, right, that these horses are able to stay at

a place like Ellis Park or at a Churchill.

And, you know, you know, back and forth between those places.

It it really is a change in that dichotomy.

Yep, for sure for. Sure.

All right. Well, the most expensive race

ever run at Keeneland that is not a Breeders' Cup race is the

start of the late Daily Double. It is the grade one.

Cool. More Turf Mile.

Obviously a mile on the turf there 3 and up a Breeders' Cup

win and in for the Turf Mile. Dan, I've got a long shot in

here that I like, but boy, another really fun feel, no?

Oh yeah, so it's a great field. I don't you know, Mountain Bear

and Kikuli. I, I don't know, those are

three-year olds coming over that you know, and they, and you look

at some of these, I mean the two horse last time out the got

beaten neck in a great A group 2 at Newberry.

The last time he was before that, he was in a grade one at

Duvill and got dusted. So I kind of threw those two off

my ticket. I was looking for a horse that I

thought could beat Carl Speckler and I couldn't find him.

I get it. I get it.

Couldn't find he. He's, you know, oh gosh, gagging

for the name, as Dan Issel would say, who is the really fine

horse. He just went to retirement, won

the four-star Dave a couple times.

They raced him over the Arabian Peninsula too.

Oh my goodness, Why am I forgetting the name of that

horse? If someone's listening and can

comment, go ahead and comment that.

But this is this is where I think American horses, Dan can

actually get up with the European horses in the mile is

if you have a horse like a Carl Spackler that's either willing

to be on the lead or right at the lead, break fast, be there,

you know, part of that early pace and then have a late kick.

I think that's where you can see an American horse actually win a

turf race against older horses at the Breeders Cup.

Yeah, and you know, this, this horse has is 3 out of four this

year. I don't know what happened in

the Poker Stakes at Saratoga and that, you know, he's won.

He's won five out of his last six.

He's by Luke Luke de Vega horses having that unbelievable year

over in Europe, and it's had a couple a couple of nice winners

here. This horse is is really a nice

horse. And like I said, I I tried, I

tried to find something to beat him, Lou, but I just couldn't do

it. Yeah, I think the two and the

three here, Cooley and More Than Looks are both contenders for

sure. And I, and I understand if

people want to back those horses, especially you get

Frankie Natori in that kind of race.

I'll tell you a horse I'm really interested in is Spirit of Saint

Louis, the 8 horse Dan. I think you're going to get

every bit of 20/22/20, 4:00 to 1:00 on that horse.

He's coming out of state bred company.

But if you look at the times on his runs and how well he has

matched up against other horses, I think he's got a legit shot to

hit the board here. And so I think this is a chance

Carlos Backler's going to be what, 4:00 to 5:00 here or

something like that. If you wanted to play an exacta

hit a horse in the third spot to trifecta, I think Spirit of

Saint Louis might be it. You know, I, I kind of went when

I saw that he was coming out of state bred races, I kind of, I

kind of threw him off. But he's won.

He's won an open company and he's always been there or right

there. I mean, he's, he has eight wins

in three seconds out of 11 starts.

Lou, I, I think that's a good pick.

I like that pick. All right, so let's let's close

the show with this, because I've I've wanted to ask someone who's

been in the owners game like you as much as you have and as often

as you have and as long as you have.

Frankly, there's a horse running right now that that everyone's

in love with and I I think they're doing the right thing

and the proper thing with and that's next.

He's running in these more marathon Y type races and he's

dusting the field. He looks terrific doing it.

Do the owners, the trainers any, any of the connections of that

horse? Oh, horse racing, anything to

run that horse in the Breeders Cup Classic or are they doing

right by the horse and getting the checks?

Because I think what we forget when we sit in a chair like I am

and like I do all the time with this show or with with, you

know, the show on ESPN 680, it's easy to say, oh, this is what I

want as a fan and I'm only thinking about next, the one

horse. We forget that these are

operations, right? And that one horse can help pay

for another horse or another five horses or another ten

horses, whatever it might be. If you own next, would you be

happy with how they're handling them?

And why is the answer yes? Well, if they're not going to

the Breeders Cup, then the answer is yes.

I, you know, the that horse owes them nothing and that that's a

common phrase. But Lou, they claim this horse

for $62,000 and they found out, I don't know if it was by

mistake or not, but they found out what the horse can do and

what he can do is incredible. I've never seen a horse run a

mile and a half and then kick it in and that does.

And so, no, if I was, if I was them, I would, I would sure stay

away from the classic. And you know, and you know, with

what is the, the turf race is worth 5 million this year.

You know, there's going to be a bunch of of, of really good

horses coming overseas in that race.

I wouldn't, I wouldn't run him in the I'd I'd find another mile

and three quarter race and pick up at $90,000.

Want to thank Steve, who's listening.

It was Casa Creed. That's who I was thinking of.

Carl Spackler reminds me a lot of Casa Creed.

Dan they. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Well, yeah, I, I, I see this on on Twitter and someone who I

really respect, his name is David Aragona.

He makes the morning lines for Naira, for the Naira tracks and

I really respect him. I think he's got a really good

horse racing podcast as well with the time for the time for

folks, and he is all over this Dan.

He really thinks they're doing a disservice to the game by

running them in these races and oh, this division's not going to

be around for very long. I'm like, that's not their

fault. Like, like that's not their

fault that their horse is winning all these races by 10

lengths and picking up all these checks.

That's what you're supposed to do.

Exactly. That's, that's, that's why they

gave, that's why they put 62 five in the claim box, Louis.

That's exactly right. Well, I'm glad Dan Isel agrees

with me. When is your little sorority

girl going to run again? We don't know she that Saturday

night was closing night at Prairie Meadows.

She is safely tucked in her stall at Turf Paradise where our

trainer Kevin Iberry winters. We don't know where she'll go

next, but it'll be it'll be open company and it'll probably be

around two turns. You know, Kevin, our trainer won

the two year old colt division as well and our Philly and our

Philly ran a second faster colt did so.

If you win the Oaks, you're just going to be insufferable, aren't

you? Yeah, I if I win the Oaks, if I

win the Oaks, you won't have me on this show anymore.

Can we can we can we declare something on October 3rd way

ahead of this obviously a ridiculous claim.

Your horse wins the Oaks, you be shirtless.

Infield Churchill running around.

Boom. Yeah, we're doing it there it.

Is Hey, Lou, I'm I'm, I'm 70, almost 76 years old.

Nobody wants to see me shirtless.

He's Danissel. Find him on Twitter at Danissel

44 for no reason. He doesn't tweet.

It's okay, he's in his basement in Colorado.

Please say hi to your wife for me and enjoy a dinner paid for

by someone else. Your favorite kind of dinner?

Thank you, Lou, always great to see you enjoy the rest of the

cigar. And I will enjoy Keeneland on

Saturday even though you won't be there.

So they thanks man, appreciate you.

Alright. Bye, bye.

Alright, Dan Issel, the great Dan Issel joining us here on the

Horse Racing Happy Hour. Appreciate his insights for

sure. Again, I'll be out there on

Saturday at Keeneland. We'll talk to Brad Cox tomorrow

at 10:40 on my local show here in the Louisville Market.

And you can listen to it anywhere in the world.

Just ask your smart speaker frankly or listen to us at

esp@louisville.com. I will have that interview for

you tomorrow. Talk about all of Brad's runners

this weekend as well. I'll be there out there on

Saturday at Keeneland and if you are so inclined, find me on

Twitter at Radio Louie. Tell me that you're going to be

there too. I'll be out at J Shepard Cigars

tomorrow and so I'll have a ton of cigars to hand out to folks

on Saturday. So if you want to hang out in

Lexington, shoot me Adm on Twitter at Radio Louie.

Be happy to get along with that. You can always e-mail the show

at horseracinghappyhour@gmail.com.

We're happy to answer your questions over there as well for

Dan Hessel, for all the guys, I'm Lou Urbel.

Thanks for making us part of your horse racing weekend.

We'll be back next week. It's Maryland Million preview,

so we'll have Callie Francois, our guy Dan Ellman, and of

course, Johnny P will be back on the show as well.

So, so glad to have all of them as part of the show again.

Lou Urbel at Radio Louie on Twitter.

We'll see you next week.