Barry Spears | Keeneland & Churchill Downs

Yes, horses and talking from my back porch in Louisville, KY.

My name is Louis Rebeau. This is the horse racing happy

hour. Thanks for making us part of

your horse racing weekend starting early on a Thursday

night. Barry Spears set to join at any

time. We'll talk to the urban

handicapper tonight as part of our previews of closing day at

Keeneland already. And then of course, opening day,

2 year old day Sunday at Churchill Downs.

Couple of stakes there on the roads to the Oaks and to the

Derby. We'll get into all of that over

the week. Of course the pre entries from

Breeders' Cup are out. I even got out my Del Mar last

time they were there sort of. Breeders' Cup hat.

Today producer Zach with us from an undisclosed location

somewhere in Texas will pretend he doesn't exist for the time

being, but we'll have Barry in wanted to announce a couple of

events ahead of Breeders' Cup. Of course we'll be there in

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However, you want to get a hold of us at Radio Louie for me, Get

it? We want to see you next week for

sure, starting this Sunday at 8 Greenwich time in the evening,

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listen to this show, James Welsh, his annual visit As far

as the Euro invaders, all of the turf horses that will be making

their way from France, England, Ireland, Germany, whatever it

might be, France jumping over here for Breeders' Cup.

We'll talk to him on Sunday. On Monday, Early Show, 12:30 in

the afternoon, 930 on the West Coast.

We'll talk to Matthew DeSantis about those New York shippers

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Always a really nice week of ratings for us as well because

of all of you. Again at Horse Happy Hour.

Find us on on you can find us on YouTube if he wants it, but we

welcome into sniper himself. His name is Barry Spears.

I'm going to try to adjust the cameras here.

What do I want to do here? What's the best look for Barry

Spears? I don't know what's what's the

best look? We'll go with that.

All right, little move around, little dancing little Tampa hat.

Where do they play next year in your opinion?

Barry Spears, unmute your mic for me if you can.

Hopefully, like Canada, Montreal, I'd like to see him

play Montreal. Let's.

Go little start Olympic. I like it.

Let's go. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

I'm down with that. Go back a plan Slugger Field,

Louisville, KY Make it happen. Beautiful stadium here, Make it

happen. Oh, OK.

That's what's up. I mean, we got a stadium here in

Daytona. It's very small.

But honestly, yeah, I was going to say if they're willing to do

like 1520 thousand Cedars, frankly, the the spring training

setups in Florida will be just fine, frankly.

So if they're good enough for spring training, certainly they

are good enough for regular season games.

Man I Barry, I got to say, man, as that was happening, it looked

like it was designed to have the wind blow the top of that stereo

office of those poor people. It really did.

It was like a drag that. Thing.

I can't believe it didn't happen before, you know what I mean?

I'm stunned by that too. I.

Agree, bigger storms with higher winds supposedly and that didn't

happen so it was just I guess the perfect storm of things,

right? What do you want dad making

jokes like that? Come on Barry, be better.

All right, so he is the urban handicapper.

He is the sniper. We call him Barry around here.

Joins us again on the horse racing Cap Barry.

Thank you, Barry for making it, making us part of your Thursday

pre entries are out for Breeders' Cup.

Do you geek out on those? Because I I definitely do.

Oh, yeah, yeah. I love looking, especially at

the foreign horses, you know, with the early ones, I like

going in and looking and trying to find the the replays or all

those foreign races, all those horses coming from like France

or Germany or wherever and they look like they're running in

somebody's backyard sometimes. Makes Kentucky dolls look really

nice, right? Exactly.

That's really true, man. Yeah, no, for sure.

And that's, I mean, part of the the real challenge of next

weekend. We'll be those European horses

again. We'll have James Welsh Sunday,

usual spot. Come download that episode

whenever you want from JW Racing over there in Scotland.

Barry, I got to admit. So I'm a linguist by training.

I I hear accents really well. I understand people surprisingly

well. James comes on, It takes me a

solid 4 minutes to get used. I was so Scottish.

But yeah, thanks for coming. But once you get into the rhythm

with James Welsh, it's good info.

And frankly, man, he gave us there is a race, I'm trying to

remember which one, but he's given us the winner cold like

four years in a row. So he is I'll have to look it up

on on dude. He pays attention and he also

runs because they have fixed Dods, you know, trying to beat

the bookie essentially on the British Isles.

He runs a racing group that follows American dirt racing

too. So he's way up on everything.

Frankly, is one of the best resources that I know for for

Breeders' Cup stuff because obviously watching all the

European stuff, but then loves our American dirt racing as

well. I have to ask because I think

it's it's one of those short stretch at at at Delmar and and

of course it's going to get talked about.

But for the distaff, we have two great Philly.

I got a Philly and a mayor who are going to be willing to

battle up front in idiomatic in torpedo.

Anna, do you lean either way with either of those, or are you

like me and you're just ready to geek out on that race?

Yeah, I'm ready to geek out on that race.

But, you know, I'm I'm live a little bit against both of them,

but they should be standing out. You know, it's just it's that

race in particular I think is going to be kind of a rider's

race. You know, the cat and mouse game

is is and whoever plays that best is probably going to win

that race. I mean, both of those Phillies

are really, really talented. It's just, you know, a simple

break here or there could make all the difference.

Yeah, having the right speed in the in the before the second

turn, that kind of stuff for sure.

Having that kind of distance. Does idiomatic do what she did

last out and and really push away from the field again and

try to create some space or does she get back to some of those

things? We saw the Molly picture, that

kind of stuff before. We've seen Thorpedo Anna run her

race though. I know with the classic this

year, at least for me, Barry, I very much think that a

three-year old can win here for sure amongst this crowd.

Torpedo Anna could definitely win the race too, right?

Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you have to wonder

though, if, if at this point in the campaign is this just a

little bit too much. I I remember having that feeling

with the Swiss skydiver and, and she kind of tailed off at the

end of her great campaign and it kind of feels that way.

You know, although she did rent, she ran tremendous in the

Travers. But I, I.

When when does she get tired? Is essentially the question

right? Yeah, that's that's really what,

you know, that plays into this too.

And that that could open it up for, for possibilities beyond

those two. But on paper, those two are the

best. I think the dirt mile sets up to

be really interesting as well. Barry, We saw Chad Brown pull a

horse returns. But you know, going two turns

over the dirt mile there at Delmar, front runners.

Are you just gonna try to play front runners in those kinds of

races with a short stretch there or are you looking around, you

think? It's it's going to be tough, but

you know, you got to going to have to look and see how that

track is playing because, you know, Del Mar usually gets

pronounced biases either way. You know, there's, there's been

days I've seen there, especially this part of the year where

front runners just can't hold on.

And then that's right, typically not the case.

I know last year speed did do pretty well, but it was kind of

Fair. So, you know, you just kind of

have to look at those cues and and kind of see, but yeah, for

the place types in general are always usually favorable, but

you never know on the. Dirt there.

Yeah. No.

Fair enough. Yeah.

What else did I want to ask you? Do you have a classic favorite

or is this one of those like, I mean, you know, I'll ask a

simpler question there. It looks like they're going to

run next in the in the classic. Do you like that?

Yeah, I love it because I think he's going to take a lot of

money and I think I'm going to bet against him.

So yeah, I'm all for it. Come on.

Next, Next. Get in there.

Let's go. Get in there buddy.

You can kind of do it ish. It's.

It's weird, I think it it was one of the Japanese horses did

this last year and cut back in distance to a mile and 1/4 and

it didn't fare so well. And next isn't like super fast

early, right? I, I don't know.

I, I just don't know what kind of trip that horse could get.

Certainly talented enough under the right circumstances, but I

don't know if this year and this field is the right circumstance.

Yeah, it'll be interesting. I do think on the classic side,

the three-year olds have terrific chances, fierceness,

running style plays well for this race.

Certainly. You know, you get a, a forever

young coming over. It looked really great in his

last start in Japan. I, you know, and look, city

Troy, that's a, that's a wild card coming off the turf.

They're going to give him the try at a mile and a quarter

distance. We've seen stranger things in

the Arabian Peninsula, frankly, with horses coming out of the

British Isles running then say in Saudi or in UAE.

And so I, I don't know that there's a horse in that

three-year old crop, especially at the top, if they're going to

be near the front. I think the only one I'm

thinking about tossing before we even get there Barry is Sierra

Leone just cuz he's so slow to start.

Yeah, I, I mean, he really gives himself so much to do.

And when he wins, you know, he's definitely much the best because

he's, he's running past everybody.

You know, I'm kind of partial to the Japanese runners.

I I think that you know, they they're they're pretty good man

and I know people are doubting them, but both of those horses

and even, you know, city of Troy, who who I would think

would want to avenge for a talk of New York.

That still stings that that one. Talk a New York reference on a

Thursday. Let's go.

On you know that. You know what's funny about that

is I hit the early pick 4 for 32,000 that day and I had

everybody in the top five but Bayern in the late pick four

that would have paid the same. And oh, man, the toast was it,

is it talk in New York or toast in New York?

Toast in New York, Yeah, yeah, I I had him.

I had a win bet on him too. And I was just like, man, I just

couldn't, you know, I couldn't be too upset because I already

had one big. So I was like, all right,

whatever. But it still stops a little bit.

No, I get it. It's not something you just get

over right away for sure. So there you go.

That is not the layout I want. We're going to dance back to

that one. There we go.

All right. Well, these Barry Spears.

I'm Louie Robot at Radio Louie. Find the show at Horse Happy

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as well. I want to get into the

handicapping here and and I, I don't know if you're like me,

Barry, I kind of don't, you know, I, I had Dan Ellen say

this on this show a couple weeks ago.

I asked him what's a better day, Preakness Day or Maryland

million? He said, Louis, any day I'm at

the track. That's a good day.

And I'm on the same page for sure.

I'm happy no matter where I'm at, as long as.

I'm That's a given. But I get it.

But a 2 year old Sunday at Churchill offers some pretty

spicy good races, right? Oh hell yeah.

I mean, those are, those are just always total crap shoots.

You know, you get these low, nondescript kind of connections

that unveil a nice 2 year old at this time of year that's a

little bit more mature than the rest and lights up the tote

board. I I mean, it's nothing better

than that actually, because, you know, throughout Christmas and

Thanksgiving, you know, extra cash always goes a long way.

It sure does. The interesting thing about

Sunday as well at Churchill is often we look at the stakes

races and we think, oh, Derby prep, obviously we're going to

find a Derby runner out of here. But really it might be the

maiden races that it's, you know, the better time to watch

right now. If I gave you the option Barry,

all of the maiden races or the street sense more likely to get

a Derby starter for next year. I'd say all the other races.

Yeah, I agree with you. Yeah, this is usually the time

of year. This was the last year it was

what, Dornick domestic product. And there was one other Derby

starter, three of them in the same main race.

This coming meet at Churchill's. It might have been the September

meet, but oh, yeah, this is when to start watching those two year

olds, for sure. But we close up the Keeneland

circuit. Can you believe Keeneland?

I swear to God, Keeneland goes faster than Kentucky Downs.

It just flies through. It's unbelievable.

I don't know what it is, doesn't it?

It really is insane. But they will close up shop on

Saturday, so mandatories and everything.

Barry and I are going to look at the last three races that begins

with race 8, the Fayette. It's a grade 2 Milan and 8th on

the dirt. We're going two turns.

This is 4/3 and up. And Barry, I gotta say this

started at the beginning of the year in New Orleans and I

thought we had a couple of really nice two turn older dirt

races. We had some over Preakness

weekend. Again, we've had a couple of

nice fields for these kinds of races this year after a couple

of years of just not great two turn older horse action.

Yeah, you know, horses decided to stick around this year a

little bit. Not the top, top level, but all

the all the kind of mid range to the ones that are on the cusp of

being, you know, top level. And and this race kind of

exemplifies that this is a pretty good field top to bottom,

you know, hit show, Probably the horse to beat is in good form.

But you know, I, I I like another horse in here, though

the four war campaign I I like quite a bit.

This horse has some races that that could easily win this

especially last year. Had some tough luck this year in

the greatest stakes in the Ben Ali and and Blame had had some

tough luck and then kind of bounced back at Indy.

Came back in September and September 25th ran a pretty good

race and I think that one puts this one right in it. 3 workouts

since that last race on September 25th and should get a

nice set up here. I think there's enough speed,

especially from the outside, to kind of force the issue here and

and make this pace honest enough so Tumbarumba doesn't get away

too easy. Yeah, I think that War Campaign

is going to try to run the same race as Hit Show, which is

ironic, of course, but I think you're totally right.

Sims clearly set this up. Hey, let's get the tune up at

Churchill Mile and 16th. We'll try the mile and an

eighth. All of the recent workouts have

been at Keelan, so he clearly thinks that that'll be helpful

as well. But Hit Show man Brad Cox, he's

just, I think he's going to set the record for graded stakes in

a meet at Keelan, in a single meeting.

The barn's just hot. We wouldn't be stunned if Hit

Show wins here, right? Yeah, I mean, he's, he's

definitely the most logical winner of this race and and

probably will run to it. I I don't suspect he's he's

going to kind of regress. He could probably only move

forward a little bit, which would put him right here at the

wire. But I like playing against

chalk, so working against the ones for me.

Yeah, no, there was another horse in here I wanted to ask

you about. The 9 horse in Grand Aspen

coming off an extended layoff, a barn switch here to Jonathan

Thomas. Jose Ortiz gets them out here.

This is a horse we last saw in that Pegasus World Cup in

January at Gulfstream Park. Gets the start here off the

bench. Has been working at Keeneland as

well. How do you read into a horse

like this? Are you looking at trainer stats

or are you gonna lay off a horse like this, wait for him to maybe

run at a Cigar Mile or something like that?

I, I got to see this horse put together at least two good

efforts. Maybe, maybe one if, if this

horse runs well here, I'd be more apt to play him, but not in

this spot. It's kind of hard.

It's just a strange career this horse has had.

You know, he, he really just got off to a slow start, switched

Barnes, ran pretty good, had one clunker right at the end and

then switched Barnes again. Not really sure what's up with

that, but is talented enough. But is he healthy enough?

That's that's the question. The horse I'm sure will ruin my

tickets is the 6th horse here, and that is Rattle and Roll.

Second off the layoff here, do you like Rattle and Roll for the

same reasons that you might like War Campaign?

Rattle and Roll kind of stands out a little bit.

He's been running faster races against better horses, slightly

better than these and and winning races too.

It's just a tough set up here for him in particular because he

does like the launch from way back there.

There are versions of this race where there is a pace meltdown,

but it it doesn't seem likely unless Tumba rumba wants to kind

of speed off and I and I don't think he's really that type on

the lead. He really doesn't really want

the lead right. It seems like he he would rather

have a target. So I don't think the pace is

going to be fast enough for a horse like rattle and roll.

Yeah, Tumbarumba, even in the Akak let the the field catch up

with him. He got an easy lead out of the

gate. He flew out of the gate, Bear.

I was there and he just, like, waited for other horses to show

up. I can only imagine being in Luis

Saez's brain at that point. Like, no, no, we can be in the

front. It's OK, buddy.

I. Had to feel like that for sure.

Yeah, he he's kind of distance challenged.

You get him over a mile and it seems like he kind of slows down

right at the very end. But it's gonna be interesting to

see how this race is run if anybody really tries to press

them, because if that horse gets away slow enough, he's obviously

a danger even at the distance he's kind of shaky at.

But a mile and a seems like a stretch to me.

Race 9 is the start of the late double.

It's a mile on the turf for three-year olds.

It's called the Grade 3 Bryant Station, $600,000 in the Kitty

for this one. Obviously trying to keep

degraded status and maybe even move this up.

Some horses in here that people will recognize.

Brilliant Birdie just won the Gun Runner at Kentucky Downs and

of course, Trickery is in here. The 11 horse for Grand Motion,

Manny Franco in to ride this one on a Saturday that has other

stakes around the country. There are 15 horses entered

here, Barry. I think 20 of them could win.

I think it's that wide open of a field.

Did you land on anybody in particular?

I win 1116 here, so that would be trickery.

I really like Meet the One here coming out of Kentucky Downs,

out of that Gun Runner before that one at Saratoga in the Hall

of Fame in the Grade 2 before that, of course in the Manila at

Aqueduct. I think getting out of Kentucky

Downs will be good for that horse.

I think Junior Alvarado will give him a legitimate chance to

win here. And obviously I love the 8 to

One price. Who'd you land on here?

Yeah, I'm with you. I I like neat.

I like the post position in particular.

I think the source gets a really good trip, while trickery is

going to have a tougher trip to overcome.

There's some speed on the outside and I don't know what

they're really going to try to do, if they're going to try to

go from further back or try to kind of work their way into, you

know, kind of a medium sort of launch trip kind of mid pack.

Because I, I, I don't think they, they're want to force the

issue here. And that that's basically

becomes a really tough call for Manny Franco because if the

horse is just kind of keyed up and you don't want to take any

momentum away from this kind of horse.

So so he's going to have a tough task from that eleven spot.

And I think neat is the beneficiary of all of that.

Can get a great trip here. Should should stock, all junior

has to do is break halfway decent and this horse will be in

the right spot. I'll give you an idea of how

deep this race is. Just let's look at, I don't

know, depiction. The 2:30 to 1:00 in the morning

line. This horse won an allowance

against other horse, older horses, excuse me, not other

horses with horse, but older horses at Churchill, you know, 2

back right in the American Derby at Churchill came back in the

gun runner. This is essentially second off

the layoffs. Sheree Devoe hits it 13% in

stakes. And you know, I wonder, man, if

if this isn't, you know, if we aren't set up for some kind of

upset here or if I'm just overthinking it.

No, you're on to something. I I think particularly in this

race, the Hall of Fame is kind of a key race where Neat won

that race. I think that race was pretty

strong and I think Logano stands a nice chance.

I know this horse has been beaten by a few of these, but

it's it's kind of like a just miss scenario where you know, a

break left to right, you know, something happens in front of

them, whatever. And and this horse is in the

winner's circle just as easily as as he lost those races.

If you get this kind of price, which I think you might, yeah, I

agree, probably double digits and you know, at least 12:50.

Definitely worth a second look in this spot.

Yeah, it'd be interesting too. There's some horses stretching

out in here trying the distance for the first time.

Mansa Musa stands out amongst that group in the 8 hole.

Luis Saez for Bill Mott Evade is in here.

The French horse second start ever came over and in that

Franklin Simpson at at Kentucky Downs.

Speaking of Kentucky Downs, our guy Steve, is it bad that every

time I hear Kentucky Downs I get a cold chill down my spine?

No, no, that's just your wallet, brother.

That's just your wallet. Don't worry about it.

You're good. You you'll be OK.

But some other ones interesting in here.

I actually think coming out of that Jersey Derby twirling point

on the outside, we get Frankie Vittori and I get 20 to one on

A2 turn turf race at Keeneland with Frankie Vittori.

I mean, that's a juicy #2 there, Barry.

Yeah, I mean, you know, Frankie's done worse with

better, but I but I think, I think he does have a shot here

because the way he rides, he's very aggressive and he's a

better speed rider than I think people kind of anticipated.

Yeah, I agree. When?

He moved his task here and and he's been showing him up, you

know, winning races he probably shouldn't have a, you know,

quite a bit even out in California he was doing it.

So you always got to watch where Frankie lands.

You know, he's, he's got a real sharp eye and he, he's a really,

really, really good. You know, he's got a really good

feel for any kind of race. It's, it's unbelievable how how

good he is at that. Speaking of races for which I

have no feel the closer, Saturday at Keeneland will be a

maiden 150 because this is Kentucky, $78,000 in the purse.

This is for two year olds. We are going 6 furlongs on the

dirt. Old 2 year old Sprint to end the

card here. Barry, to you I say good luck.

What do you look for in these kinds of main races with two

year olds? You know, it just depends on the

race because the fields that are assembled could dictate how you

know where your guide is. Like for example, a lot of times

in these races where there's not many, there's not much form,

there's only a few horses that have run.

I tend to think that, you know, the newcomers will probably be

better. That's not the case actually in

this race. I think the horses that have run

might have a little bit of advantage because on paper it

kind of looks like this pace might get really hot up front

and and these horses that have run already might be able to sit

off it a little bit. And by horses, I mean the 11

desert air. I I think that horse learned

some things in this two races that that he's had and will

probably be able to sit off a hot pace and and make a nice run

for Manny Franco. I I've could not agree more.

I do think there are some horses in here that have legitimate

experience that will help them very much on this race.

I, you know, you mentioned the, the Manny Franco Desert Air, the

11. I think just outside of him,

Phil Bauer's got one that ran in Indiana in August, a little bit

of time off here, which he hits at 29 percent.

He's really great as well with two year olds at the same

percentage. I wonder if Winter Creek, the 12

won't break well because it is a second time out.

This is a horse that frankly was good and then just had to go a

mile and did that second turn, just didn't like it.

So maybe going around to Sprint here will be good for the 12 as

well, which is a winter Creek. I'll close this.

You know, you know what's funny about that horse?

You know what's funny about that horse is that he's dropping in

class, but going up in class. Right.

Way up in class, right. Yeah, for sure.

Yes. You don't see them.

You don't. You're right.

It's interesting, too. We'll talk about some of these

horses at Churchill, but you know, because of the lack of

turf course at Churchill and other, you know, factors, people

are using horseshoe, they're using Belterra whatever to break

maidens to protect horses from certain condition books.

And so we're seeing these horses run in Indiana and then pop down

to Kentucky. No big deal.

So it's been it's been interesting to watch and

certainly a trend to watch on Saturday and out on Sunday at

Churchill Downs, which is 2 year old day.

It is street sense and gosh, I'm forgetting what the other race

are. Rags to riches of course.

There we go, the rags to riches. We'll start our handicapping

here late. Pick three starts with that race

in race nine mile on a 16th on the dirt. 2 year old Phillies

here, $200,000 in the Kitty Berry and I think a fun one.

Good cheer is going to come in here at 6:00 to 5:00 for Brad

Cox. She only won by 17 likes her

last time out. Only I thought it was 25, but

you know who's counting. Yeah, why did she win by 25?

Huh? Come on, get off.

And I never heard of those guys. By the way.

Congratulations to them. Must be a small outfit.

Yeah, I mean, I, I, I, I always have problems with horses like

this because I, I definitely want to bet against them, but

it's hard not to because of the way that they win.

You know, this horse freaked in the mud.

I mean, they could have been a complete fluke, especially after

the first race where at least the buyer number wasn't all that

great. Sure.

You know, I, I mean, just looking at the pedigree, who,

who owns the horse and who's training the horse, you got to

think he's better than that. And he showed it or she showed

it, but I don't know if that horse can get back to that

number, I mean. Yeah, right.

Right, sure. They, you know, 2 year olds

really don't do that sort of thing.

They're not pairing up 80 fives usually they there's, there's a

little, you know, kind of rocky road there in the beginning.

I like to go with consistency. So the two Claire's charm seems

more consistent in running style and everything else.

And she seemed to really like she liked the extra distance

last out too. Right.

And, and you know, I, I think a little bit further would

probably be OK for this horse. Oh, I agree with that for sure.

Yeah, I think the mile to a mile and a 16th, you know, we joke

about the turns thing and of course it's a one mile turn, one

turn mile, excuse me, at Churchill moving to A2, turn

mile and a 16th here. But horses that come out of that

two turns or even out of seven at Churchill seem to be OK with

the two turns at Churchill. It's I think more very at

Churchill about horses that can handle how long the stretch is,

right. I mean, that really does stand

out when you watch those races, They turn, they hit the top of

the stretch. Travis Stone still has like 3

minutes to call the race. I mean, like, it's that long to

get down that stretch. And so it's, it's its own thing.

She's obviously shown that she can do that by breaking her

maiden at the highest level at Churchill.

Last out for Phil Bauer, who is now recently hitting at about

20% for the Rigney folks in stakes.

He and Tyler have not won at Churchill on any of their

combined mounts the last four attempts.

I, yeah, whatever, it's over 4. Whatever.

I agree with you. The six and two stand on top.

I have the 8 is an interesting log shot here at Lady Orient

because this one comes off the turf Berry, but this is

something Tom Amos does exceptionally well is get 2 year

old fillies especially ready for their three-year old campaign.

She's coming out of the Johnson A Listed Stakes at Saratoga

where she ran 7th before that broker maiden at Ellis Park, but

did have a bullet workout the other day on the dirt at

Churchill. Do you like her a 12:50?

I really do. Yeah, I mean, the price is

right. She's talented enough.

She looks like she's talented enough.

It's just a matter of whether she wants the dirt or not.

You know, we'll, we'll see. Because usually horses like this

will, will kind of run up, you know, make a move on, on like

the turn. And if they flatten out, it's

usually, you know, they're, they're pretty much meant for

turf. But we'll see.

I mean, you know, these horses do and, you know, these young

horses do different things all the time.

And I, I just kind of, I actually thought it was odd that

they started that horse on the turf personally, but.

I think sometimes it's just what the condition book is, you know

what I mean? You just, you see.

Something in Ellis. Yeah, they're they're running

for 71 on the turf in Ellis. Great.

Let's go win a $71,000 race. And I certainly understand that

kind of thinking. Let's move on.

The Derby prep this weekend is the street sense.

It's the Grade 3. It's race 10.

Start of the late Daily Double there, 200,000 in the Kitty

again, a mile and a 16th on the dirt.

We'll call this what a Grade 3. Did you land on anybody in the

streets since this felt a little more open than the than the

girls race? Dapper Moon, I I think is set up

well here after that that run in the British security didn't run

all that badly was was just hung out way wide and and just was

really up against it. But I thought, I thought he ran

pretty good and, and, and I think getting to a more normal

sort of post position will make all the difference.

I I, I think this horse is. Pretty good.

I think with Dapper Moon, two horses like that, because of the

short stretch of that mile and a 16th at Keeneland, you have to

ask horses to especially push through the turn.

And if horses aren't good at that, the move to Churchill

could be really good because of the stretch.

And so if Dapper Moon's a horse that just needs to get around

the turn and then do her best running or excuse me, his best

running in this case in the stretch that he's going to get

that chance. The son of Malibu Moon, 130

dollar, 130 dollars, $130,000 purchase at the OBS sale in

April. Ricardo gets the ride again for

Dallas Stewart comes to time and here is coming second off second

race ever. Excuse me off a Sprint going

Sprint around. Of course for Brad Cox.

We got 1 coming out of the juvenile mile and tastic for

Steve Asmussen in the five hole for Christian Torres.

He gets them out here. This horse has won twice both of

them in Kentucky Downs. What do you they have not been

running well at Keeneland, but what do you make of a Kentucky

Dobbs runner on this race? I know.

That's why it's a good betting race, man, I'm telling you.

Yeah, it's it's it's tough to figure.

I mean, I, I really don't know. I I wouldn't take any horse at

at a short price. And if this was going to be

short, I I'd have to bet against it.

I yeah, it there's just too many different directions this this

race could go. And if that one gets bet down, I

don't know. That's tough.

I'm with you. Would you lean then more toward

a comes a time who the 8 horse here who's coming in second

start ever is is going to stretch out, but it's Brad Cox

and we've seen this before. Yeah, I mean, he's he's unveiled

horses like this in spots like this and and they've just

overpowered fields. So you got to think that this

horse is probably coming into this race live, but I know Bill

Mott is cold is anything but sovereignty.

I agree. Looks pretty good here and I

think this horse might get a a way better trip than what you

might think of initially. The other thing I like about

Sovereignty is the horse has shown late kick in both of his

runs and in so many of these two year old races.

Barry, we see way too quick of fractions out early.

And if a horse like Sovereignty's willing, you know,

if if they're able to hold, you know, as a junior, it is if

junior Alvarado's able to hold that horse a little bit back

from the pace and then do all of his best running at the end.

I have sovereignty on top in this field of all things.

I've got the maiden on top in the street sense.

And so I like the price, but I, you know, I trust the

connections. A cold bill mod.

I'll I'll trust a cold bill mod. I'm OK.

It's still. It's still.

He's gonna win eventually, you know, it's gonna turn around.

It's just a matter of when. I mean, why not with

sovereignty? It should be an interesting one

as well. We go to the maiden race to

close it. This is a maiden special for two

year olds. This might be where you actually

see a Derby starter mile and a 16th on to dirt there. 2 year

olds for $120,000. We call that a maiden special

weight here in Louisville. Wide open field here, Barry.

I'll go ahead and go first. I like the five in here.

Render judgement, I thought looked really good at Keeneland

going the seven furlongs. Kenny Mcpeek obviously gonna

stretch this horse out for this one.

Does that at about 12% all of his numbers with between you

know, 12 and 15%. That's what Kenny Mcpeak does

because he actually runs his horses instead of training them

and so his horse render judgement will be in here with

Brian Hernandez junior in the mount.

I also thought the three was interesting here in limited

edition ran that mile I thought really well.

Again another horse willing to show closing speed.

Brendan Walsh slow start there at Keeneland has picked it up

lately. Who'd you land on the last race

here? This is a real tough race.

I mean the one horse is is probably the best bred horse

I've ever seen. That's a good point.

And is I, I, I just don't know what to expect.

And, and they got this horse at 7:00 to 2:00 on the morning

line, which probably seems appropriate.

Don't know what to expect there, but it should be interesting to

see. But I I landed on the 12 funny

enough, buzz rocket. I I I just think this horse can

get a really good trip. I mean, Flo, I would gather

they're gonna try to at least get into the race a little bit

earlier than they did the last time.

I agree. And and I don't think that horse

by design was gonna be that far off it.

You know, he he wasn't really meant to break last.

He gets out of the gate decent here.

He could get a good spot and kind of coast around like you

said before, these two year old raises around two turns get

really hot and I I expect that one to to be kind of rolling

late and hopefully. I.

Can take this double? That'd be nice.

There you. Go.

That'd be really nice, wouldn't it?

Yeah, a little little 1012 double.

Why not? Let's do it.

I'm going to guess that would pay something easily in the 5560

to one kind of range. So we'll take it all day.

Here. Yeah, on the horse racing happy

hour. His name is Barry Spears.

He is the urban handicapper. Make sure you find him on

Twitter at all the other places. If you want to start an argument

with him, he'll yell at you. He's capable of that as.

Well, I, I, I have that ability sometimes.

So there you go. I don't know why my camera's

being such a jerk, but there you go.

All right. Well, Barry, we appreciate you,

man. Thanks for jumping on.

I know short notice for this show so I appreciate you buddy.

Oh, anytime. Love you guys man, Thanks.

I appreciate it very much. All right.

Thanks, Barry. Whoa.

Quick hook from Zach. My God.

My God. The quickest hook ever there.

There you go, man. Oh, man.

Barry even shouted him out by name.

That's when you know you're on the horse racing happy hour.

Too often is, you know, the name of the ridiculous producer of

this show. By the way, if you want to meet

producer Zach, come find us a Breeders' Cup next week.

How about that? I'm Louis Ribo will wrap up the

show there again, shows coming up this weekend, Sunday, 8 GMT,

Bill, Greenwich Mean, if you will, or 3:00 PM Eastern Time on

Sunday afternoon. We'll talk to our guy James

Welch. jwracing.com is where you find all of his stuff.

My favorite person in Scotland. And then we'll talk to Matthew

DeSantis on Monday at 12:30 Eastern, 930 Pacific in the

morning. So join us there.

Dirt races preview. But certainly I want to get his

thoughts on the horses that he saw at Saratoga this summer.

Tuesday night, of course, in Louisville, 6 PMBA Colonial.

Come see me. Totally free to get in.

Come hang out. I'll have a handout for you.

You can yell at me in person at that one.

And if you're listening like so many of you do in Southern

California, come find us at Excalibur Scotch and Cigar

Lounge, 8:00 PM on Friday. You can meet Danny Brewer.

How about that? What a tease.

Danny Brewer. Holy bleep, Zach.

It's it's Danny Brewer. It's also time for the music and

time for us to get out of here. This has been the horse racing

happy hour. I'm Lou Urbell.

See you next week. Actually, we'll see you Sunday.

What am I saying?