Steve Kornacki Still Comes Back! | Cigar Mile & Remsen

Islands get after the December 5th afternoon edition of the

Horse Racing Happy Hour. We work around our guest

schedules on this show. I'm Lou Rebeau Studios of ESPN

Louisville. I'm actually in an old side

recording studio that we use here for essentially for promo

promos and this this show, if you ever listen, I did the

Kentucky Racing Spotlight, which will be on tomorrow, 6:00 PM in

our local market here. You'll hear many, many things

recorded in this studio here at ESPN 680 and 105.7.

So hey, join us tomorrow. Derby winner, Oaks winner Clark

winner all one 50s all this year.

Brian Hernandez junior joins us on that show tomorrow night.

We will have that on this podcast platform as well.

Steve Kodak, you'll be with us in about 10 minutes.

Producer Zach hanging out behind the scenes with us today.

Appreciate him making us part of his early part of the day.

And I, I just kind of wanted to start with early conversations

about who's at the top of the, the Derby standings, what we saw

at Churchill this year. Now as we move into sort of

these winter months, I kind of think of at this point the Cigar

Mile weekend, especially the Remsen, those sorts of things

being kind of a line of demarcation getting into the

winter. Obviously here in Kentucky, that

means the move to Turfway Park. We'll have the synthetic

championship coming up here in about 10 days, which is

exciting. Have to go check that out, see

what that looks like for the first time.

But after that man, until the Pegasus till we get into those

later, you know, sort of Derby preps in Arkansas and New

Orleans and that kind of stuff. It it is the winter of this

sport for sure. And so the cigar mile to me and

that tarp goes over the grass there in Ozone Park, all those

sorts of things. And it just is a different time

of year in horse racing and we'll get into that.

And one of those things that it it absolutely comes up as who's

in this Kentucky Derby field at this point.

It. And look, we can always debate

what the, you know, the difference is going to be

between say, you know, it is a horse going to be peeking too

early as a 2 year old, that kind of thing.

Is this a a situation where, you know, we think we we know who's

who and who's doing what and what that looks like and what it

might look like in the spring and we simply don't.

But at this point, of course, the most interesting thing we

don't need to bury the lead here is that Bob Bafford's got the

top. Well, we lost Louie.

We're waiting on Steve. Am I back?

Can you hear me? Your audio is back, yeah.

OK, something is going on with my computer today.

That is not great. Why don't we just go ahead, wrap

this one, Zach, We'll send a new link to Steve and I'll get my

computer restarted. Or we could just leave this

link. OK, All right, I'm going to log

out. You go ahead and talk for a

couple minutes. I have no idea what you're going

to say, but I'll be right back. All right, brother.

Yeah, sounds good. So one of the things I love

about being a producer on the Horse Racing Happy Hour is the

ability to sit here and do nothing while Louie talks.

So I guess Louie's not here. I can talk 0.

Is that me? How about that?

Can you hear me? How about that?

I can hear you. You came back.

To all the things OK, well, no one likes you so go away there

we go alright, how about that? So there you go Zach's off the

screen now I'll get back to the show here, Steve Kornacki with

us in a couple of minutes on the horse racing happy hour.

But of course at the top of the trail, of course is a man named

Bob Baffert. And this is a man who's no, you

know, no, it's just no stranger to this stuff.

And and frankly, when we get to the top of that group with a,

with a horse like Citizen Bowl, let's be clear about what this

horse is and why this matters for moving forward with the

Derby trail is that this is a get out front, stay out front

type. And when Baffert wins his

derbies, this is generally how he does it.

When you get an authentic, when you get a justify, when you get

an American Pharaoh, those kinds of horses, they're all get out

front, stay out front types. You get that with Citizen Bull

here. Martin Garcia, of course, has

gotten them out to this point. I think he'll be keeping them as

well. Guy that really knows Churchill

very, very well. Of course, some of the local

ownership of the Starlight folks, the SF racing as well

here in the Commonwealth. I, I don't know what to make of

that horse at this point. Obviously gets up front, stays

up front. Very impressive at Del Mar in

the Breeders Cup this year. What does that look like as far

as by the time we project that to the spring?

It's impossible to know usually and generally speaking, we don't

get great horses, you know, in November that also translate to

May. We do have notable exceptions,

of course, but I would say most recently a couple of years ago

in the Kentucky Jockey Club, you know, we had Smile Happy and

then we had in 3rd place in that race a white barrio who went on

to win the Florida Derby. So at least he was really good

at that point. Obviously became a classic

winner, those sorts of things as well.

Random, the Cigar Mile even. And so I, I do wonder if perhaps

Citizen Bowl is one of those kinds of horses that does his

best running in early November, almost certainly going to get

some time off in that, that Baffert barn.

We'll see him probably. Gosh, Zach, if I had to guess,

man, that he, he feels like the horse that they'll leave in

Southern California out of the Baffert runners and they'll send

a horse like gaming or something else out there to to Arkansas,

which Bob, of course, loves to use as part of his road to the

Kentucky Derby. Spread those horses out.

We see that in the different barns.

Brad Cox has got runners this weekend in New York.

He's got them in the fairgrounds and that kind of stuff.

Got to spread your runners out when you've got that many at the

very top of the sports Act. But I, I mean, you were there on

that Friday for Breeders' Cup. I mean, Citizen bold out front,

stay out front. It's as impressive as we had

that weekend. Yeah.

I mean, I got to say that I'm going to disagree with you and

think that and say he's going to bring bring him out to Arkansas.

I'd say this about Arkansas. Yeah, I think he's got an

opportunity there if that horse explodes that.

Yeah. No, that's right, $1.25 million

kind of races in Arkansas, then you can't run.

It in Southern California. We see those persons ticking

down, down. At the I don't say it, but

Southern California doesn't pay right.

Like, it's still the struggles with that and they're going to

continue to struggle, especially as these other companies come in

and sponsor these big races out East and and in the Midwest.

Well, especially in Arkansas, that's got the backing of a of a

very healthy you. Know oh gosh yeah.

Yeah, just a a, a healthy racino sort of thing there with their

casino on site there in Saud Springs and frankly a town that

really cares about it. That area of Arkansas as into

horse racing as any part of the country that we've been in.

We saw a lot of really great stuff in the Carlsbad area, that

kind of stuff just north of San Diego when we were out for

Breeders' Cup. Another part of the country that

really gives a damn about their horse racing for sure.

But you know, it's it does stand out that that, you know, he's

got the top two in the Derby standings the very first chance

that he has coming back. We see with Baffert, for

example. And it's interesting to watch

Zach because one of the rules, the new rules they have with the

Derby qualifying this year is if as the fields get smaller, the

percentage of points goes down as well.

And so you see Baffert entering extra horses at Los Al to make

sure those fields get to 7, those kinds of things.

That'll be interesting to watch. What I'm getting at, Zach, is

while the money in Arkansas is undeniable, getting in the

starting game for the Kentucky Derby is the is the goal for an

ownership group like this. Obviously you need the checks

for things to go, but they're pretty well established and this

might be the kind of group that ends up just wanting to qualify.

A Citizen Bolt in that case then would be a horse that frankly

can run anywhere and qualify, right?

He's already way ahead. He's got 40 points already.

Many years, 40 points will get you in the Derby.

Now, someone reworking of the points with the 50 pointers of

the 100, etcetera, he's probably going to need to pick off

another two or three, probably 2 races where he's at least second

place, that kind of thing. But have that 40 point jump man.

He's already in a great spot as well.

By the way, we're going to besmirch a horse later when we

get to Aqueduct, and I'm very excited to besmirch this horse

because of who his dad is. Just just perfection, Just just

things, Zach, We used to be a proper country.

We used to be, I'm not sure that's true actually, but we we

pretended to be a proper country, you understand me?

And now we got horses being bred by horses that have no business

bringing in the breeding shed. And now they're the favorites in

in Derby preps. I I got, I got no, I got very,

very little time for this kind of stuff, Zach.

We'll just we'll just have to see what Steve Kornacki says

about that here in. About so I want to go back to

the conversation a little bit. Sure.

Which is, you know, if Baffert doesn't hit the board in the

Derby, is that a disappointing year for him?

I, I think with this crop, with what the expectations are, I

think the answer is yes, yeah, in the same way.

And I'll, I'll flip it. I think if Brad Cox doesn't hit

the board in the Oaks, good Lord, what are we doing?

I don't think if he doesn't have a top 2 runner in the Oaks, all

the, all the Philly strength that he's got his barn right now

in that 2 year old group, I would be surprised number one.

But #2 on top of that, I, he's just, he's, they're just too

good right now, man. It's just too good right now.

And so I, I'm hopeful that they'll be on top there.

I think it's just and, and you know, my opinion on this, I

think it's good for the game when the very best are involved

in the game, That's it. That's the whole conversation.

It's very simple for me, frankly.

And so getting a bat for back, having Brad Cox with a bunch of

great Phillies ahead of the Oaks as well.

But if you look, you know, I mean, Cox has the one and the

just got one in the Oaks of prep at in the demo Zelle this

weekend with Muhima. I think she'll be the favorite

by the time we get the post time.

But the the other thing, by the way, before Steve comes on, I

don't want to put Steve in a bad spot.

The naira people, we're less than 48 hours away from these

races. I have the morning lines for the

stakes from David Aragona on his Twitter site and nothing on the

past performances and nothing on Equibase from Naira yet.

We're less than 48 hours out from this card.

I, I, we're trying to talk about your racist people.

I brought, I blame Matthew DeSantis.

That's what we're going to do. We're just going to blame

Matthew DeSantis and just run with that.

I think that's what we're going to do.

We'll talk to him tomorrow. By the way, I'm going to bow and

go on the SP at 68157. But no, we got we got a horse in

these races that's just ugly. Ugly.

Of course, also in this group, by the way, Zach is a horse

named Jonathan's Way and I'll be interested to watch his

development because we see him run really well at Saratoga.

Comes back in that Iroquois dominates the field in the

Iroquois goes out to western Southern California, excuse me,

to the West Coast. It doesn't have his best race.

Comes back, runs in that Kentucky Jockey Club runs a good

second, good second for sure. But I'm wondering if he's not a

two turn horse. I'm wondering if we're just

gonna find out with him that he's a 1 Turner.

And I'm sure someone just rolled their eyes and said, you think

you know what a 2 year old's gonna be when he grows up.

You're right. I, I probably don't.

But in the case of Jonathan's, Jonathan's way, I, I think

there's a chance that he's shown us what he is as far as as what

he's going to be the best at. Now, the son of a coma, We'd

quite, we don't quite know what the vacomas are necessarily and

what they're capable of, how they fit into the sport sort of

in general. But I would say, you know, if,

if one's gonna jump up here, Jonathan's way does seem like

that kind not to be lost. By the way, Getaway car has 11

points in the standings and is another Bob Baffert, of course,

right. So getaway car might be the one.

You might be right about this part, Zach.

They might be sending, you know, their horses at the top of this

to go, you know, Citizen Bowl, that kind of horse to Oaklawn to

get those checks. My wonder is with a horse like

Getaway Car, is that the one you leave at home because you got

Juan Hernandez? You're gonna be able to run

those races in Southern California and try to keep

packing up the points that way. Of course, Chancellor Macpatrick

on the East Coast, East Avenue almost fell out of the gate.

You and I were there for that one.

Almost fell out of the freaking gate in the Breeders Cup

Juvenile. And so interesting to kind of

figure out where these horses are at.

Zach, if I gave you the top ten in the Derby standings right

now, from Tis Tastic all the way back up to Citizen Bowl or every

other horse that could be qualifying for the Kentucky

Derby, what would you take right now?

I'll take the field. What?

What horse would I take or what? Would you take the top ten in

the Derby standings right now? Or every other horse?

So you get those 10 or or the field.

Nice horses. Yeah, I agree.

There's some nice horses that ran this fall, though.

Let's bring him in. His name is Steve Kornacki joins

us here on the Horse Racing Happy Hour.

We'll get rid of Zach. We'll bring Steve in for the

show. Goodness gracious.

Steve's hidden somewhere in a bunker.

What's going on? What bunker are you stuck in,

Steve? I'm on the 18th floor of a

building. I don't usually work it, but I

can tell you I I was listing last week and you put me on 5th

Ave. with all the fancy people and that is not that is not

where I'm doing this from. That was more of an illman joke.

You watch your mouth. That's more of an illman.

That's the New York thing. I'm not involved in that.

I'm here in the middle of the country, you understand, just

that we were kind of recapping, you know, to this point.

And I know you're just kind of getting your feet back

underneath you after a long election cycle and all those

kinds of things. But you got to do the trip to

Del Mar. You got, you know, a little bit

of a little bit of R&R for you. How did you take it?

Breeders' Cup? Anybody surprise you?

Do you have a Derby favorite right now?

Definitely don't have a Derby favorite right now, although,

yeah, you know, I'm interested in this, this Remsen we're going

to talk about because it's been a it's it's done.

It's produced some interesting stuff the last few years.

But yeah, no, no Derby favorite. Yeah.

For the Breeders Cup day, I think.

Well, look, we were all disappointed.

You didn't see that idiomatic torpedo Anna, you know, match

up. You know, I, I think we'll talk

a little bit maybe here about the Sprint too.

I, I was surprised how that one went.

I, I didn't think, I didn't think straight.

No chaser was going to was ever going to hold up.

But yeah, I was, you know, I missed the I was big on

fierceness in the classic, just missed.

And that's my style. No, that's OK.

I I don't think you should feel bad about your fiercest pick

because that might have been the best race he's ever run.

Yeah, yeah, he's, he's finally that whole, you know, every

other race thing is, is put the rest, I think.

Yeah, I think he's he's put that to rest for sure.

Well, he's Steve Kornacki at Steve Kornacki on Twitter and

all the things. And of course you can find him

on NBC and all the places. Let's get into the Aqueduct

card. Will you make the trip on

Saturday? You going to be at this Remsen?

I'm going to be there for the back half of it, for the for the

good stuff. Love hearing that.

All right, so heading out to Aqueduct this weekend.

Leave him alone. Matthew DeSantis, you leave

Steve alone. You understand me?

It's not like quite like put a blanket over my head and telling

people to leave Britney alone, but it's not.

It's not terribly different. David Aragona has put the lines

out for this weekend. So you and I will go on those of

course. But Race 7 does start the late

pick for Steven. It is the Derby prep here in the

Remsen, as you mentioned, three Grade one winners in this race

last year between domestic product running 7th and of

course, that stretch tool between Sierra Leone and Dornak,

which ended up being a bit prophetic for what we were going

to get. And how cool is it, man?

We get Sierra Leone next year. We get fierceness next year.

We're going to see Thorpedo and a Mystic Dan.

I mean, just to set that up, 2025, what a spectacular year we

might have. Yeah, I hope after being down on

the older crop this year, we, you know, maybe this is a start

of some kind of a trend, maybe we got lucky, but looking

forward to it definitely. Yeah, no, that's right.

I think sometimes we we look at like 2-3 year snippets in a

sport that where by the way, we just had the 150th Clark and we

kind of assume the two year snippet for a sport is

everything and instead we see a different kind of trend.

The two year olds will be running in the ramps in the mile

and an eighth start at the start line and finish at that same

line. Steve Tux is in here.

A second time starter is going to be stretching out for Bill

Mott, but the favorite in here is going to be Keewadin, the

five horse. Dylan Davis gets the mouth.

This is a horse that broke his maiden last out at Aqueduct over

7 furlongs after running at Saratoga in August.

I think this is a horse I'm going to try to beat just for

money, Steve. I, I, I have the same reaction.

You know, I was trying to think of some other way to go and I'm

trying to think of some way to justify going against here.

Besides the short price. The two things I came up with I

thought were interesting. Chad going from a a maiden win

to a graded stake on dirt last five years.

I think it's 4 for 34. So, and there may be, I don't

know if this might be a stretch. Is there sort of a distance

question with this horse, you know, going out to a a mile and

an eighth. So maybe between that and the

short price? Yeah, I'm going to I'm going to

look elsewhere too. And you know, the Mott one

stands out just like he has a much better track record,

obviously in that in that set up the maiden win to the greatest

stake. I I think he's I wrote it down

here 6 for 26 positive ROI on dirt.

So, you know, maybe it was a bit of a longer price there, but I

don't think it'll be too much too much longer.

And I like kind of poster as a wild card in this the the turf

horse, the Owen Hardy's early candidate for comeback of the

year 2025. Yeah, he.

Had a nice little weekend over the weekend at Churchill as as

well, several 2 year olds around the country.

And frankly we're at the part of the year, Steve, where I let

jockeys kind of dictate some of these bets as well.

I'm not betting against a Flavian Pratt in the grated

stakes. And frankly at Churchill this

last meet, I wasn't betting against Luis Saez, I'll put it

that way. So I think that's probably a

wise a a wise place to look with poster coming out of Keeneland,

as you mentioned that one mile on the turf there.

But he has the son of Munnings. We've seen the Munnings for sure

on the dirt as well. Do things just fine.

I would not be surprised. I want to be very clear.

I would not be surprised to see Kee Wade and win this race.

I think that that's, you know, definitely in the cards for

Dylan Davis in that spot. But just from a pure betting

perspective, try to beat him there.

How many do you think you would include and say the late pick 5

or something like that? I, I think it's, it's, it's

probably those three. I was initially I looked at it

and I said studly do right. And I look closer and, you know,

I I realized I had a note in here that in that Nashua, the

track that day was favoring, you know, the inside speed.

And he kind of I I think that might have boosted him a little

bit there. So I I have kind of a feeling he

may not quite be at that level here.

So if I can save some cost there, I'll take that chance.

But yeah, I think, I think tux and poster and and you know, I

think the only question then is do I use key Waden defensively

in in a pick 5 or something? But yeah, I'd be, I'd be good

with those two trying to take a shot.

Yeah, the incredible thing about I think Studley do right here

is, you know, he does have the two runs in a mile, both of

those over one turns. So he's actually trying the two

turns for the first time. He won't be the only one in this

group, but like you mentioned, you know, with a horse like

poster, that horse has at least gone the two turns before,

right? And he's done it twice on that

maiden win at Ellis and then of course followed it up at

Keeneland as well. We'll move on to the Demoiselle

that is Race 8 here and then we'll get you into the Cigar

Mile Grade 2 here for the Phillies.

On the Oak side of things, another quarter million dollar

race here. Steve Bukima is going to be the

prohibitive favorite. Frankly, it is even for Brad

Cox. A stunning amount of riches in

that Philly barn right now with two year olds spreading those

out around the country for the different preps here.

More of a single lean for you or more of a try to beat lean in

this case. Yeah.

I mean he seems to own the the Oaks trail and this doesn't look

like, I mean those wins and you know, geared down in the last

one. I mean ICC one is an 8079 buyer

for the last one that could have been a lot higher easily.

You know, and then I I just started looking here.

Obviously I want to try to beat it because I think the price is

going to be extremely short on this one.

But I mean you're left. I think you're kind of left with

the two that I'm a little curious about.

You know, you got ma in here and it's the exact same reason, you

know, beauty range, exact same reason, you know, potential and

there's tap it there, maybe the distance and I the other one.

I I was a little interested. You say it because he's run the

two turns before. Excuse me she's run the two

turns before you know would be blessed.

The broken switched over you know to to Walden's barn seems

to be improving. Maybe finding her stride.

But I'm I, I feel like I'm grasping when I go with these

and I I, I, I haven't fully decided but I would lean

probably towards singling and looking elsewhere for for

prices. I think Bohema's that horse in

the late sequence. Whenever I have you on I, I like

to try to on this horse. Is she the one you got to beat

to get a big payout over this sequence?

I think she is probably right. Well, there's that then, yeah.

Can you thin it out? Can you thin it out a little bit

and just hammer the, you know, the the base unit or something?

But yeah, I mean. The reason I like Bless the

Broken though, is because you're going to get Muhima out front.

That's what she's going to want to do.

She's going to want to be on the pace up, maybe setting it even.

And then you're going to get, you know, you're going to get a

chase from Bless the Broken. Ramon Vasquez, if he's a little

patient, you know, that's a guy who grew up at Golden Gate

Fields on the Tapita there. You got to be patient on that

surface. If he's able to just kind of

keep her a little bit off the pace.

She was pretty good over that mile and a 16th at Churchill.

And I think the thing that sets up well transferring to Aqueduct

in that case is it's a long stretch of Churchill, man.

And so she's not going to be overwhelmed at all by what's

happening at at one of those Long Island tracks where the

stretches seem to be as long as the island itself.

And so, no, I I think that's not a bad plate, especially if

that's 12 to one kind of price We've seen.

Will Walden do stranger things that win this kind of race?

You're you're talking me back into it now and it's it's not

going to, it's not going to take too much nudging because I hate

taking the two to five or something.

And I think part of it is, you know, psychologically, if I'm,

if I'm coming off doing the Remsen and I just, you know,

decided I'm going to play against the, you know, the short

price there. It's like, am I pushing my luck

doing it two times in a row? But you know, the other one.

I mean, if we're talking like, you know, hey, there's a there's

a chance for someone else here on the on the far outside in

this one. You got that Chad horse

ballerina Doro, you know, turf. You don't know how that's going

to translate, but look at the look at the breeding on that

one. You know, you got, I mean

Medallia Doro, you know, you got I mean, it just looks absolutely

bred for the the distance. And then in that again, it's

turf, you don't know, but in that in that Jessamine, it's 8th

place, but that could have been a lot closer than 8th.

That all, you know, just got jammed up, you know, repeatedly

there in the in the stretch. Finally got out late and was

running. So yeah, I'm a little, I'm a

little interested there. And yeah, I really, I'm, I'm,

I'm now, now you've got me thinking it's OK now to do it

twice in a row. I, I want it.

I really, I want it. Talk me into it, you know?

Yeah, yeah. No, I think in this case, you

know, between the Remsen, especially with these two year

old races, right, Steve? We're still figuring out what

these horses are good at, what they're, you know, going from a

turf to a dirt. We saw a lot of this, frankly,

with the Kentucky Jockey Club. So many horses switching

surfaces in that one as well when they're this young, Steve.

I think trainers, especially now, there seems to be less of

an emphasis on chasing say a grade 3 in Maryland or something

because it's going to be 100,000.

You'd rather run for non 4 lifers or something for 140 at

Churchill or 110 at Saratoga or something.

And the other thing is with the two year olds, people are trying

a lot of different things. So you're seeing, for example,

you brought up the horse on the outside of here, Ballerina de

Oro. She broke her maiden at Kentucky

Downs, right? And then she comes back, runs

another flat race, though, and that Jessamine, as you

mentioned, and she's very good. So we see her good on multiple

surfaces. I don't want to say that I don't

think of Kentucky Downs turf, but because it is such a strange

layout and what they do there is so unusual, it's nice to see

those horses come back and run well on a flat surface like

Keelan. So I don't think it's a crazy

pick at all. But if I had to, if I had to

lean in this case, I think it's Bless the Broken.

Our Ramon Vasquez would be making the trip to Oaklawn after

this weekend. So are you, Are you throwing out

the favorite here? No, I have not, but but I do

think if you're trying to, you know, one of the ways to

maximize here is to play a, you know, a really pressed exact to

that kind of thing, just a $20 cold exact or something like

that. I I think in this case, bless

the broken, probably like 1618 to one, something like that.

They can get a good return on your exact in that case.

All right, Steve, so we're going to play a game.

We do this with all of our big races on the show.

And so today you're going to tell me if a runner in the Cigar

Mile can win, and we'll say cigar.

And if they can't, you're going to say close but no cigar.

All right. Sound good, love?

It love it. Did you like the save the neck

for me last week with the Yeah. No, that was, that was.

Yeah, I was. I was wishing I was on that one

just for that. There you go, I'll been played

along. Well, all right, so the Cigar

Mile of course is a mile, that one turn mile there at Aqueduct,

$500,000 for the grade 2 here, a race with a lot of history.

And see if I was saying before you came on, I think of this as

sort of the of curtains on the fall season.

This to me is the last, you know, sort of big weekend before

we go completely South of here, right?

We go to Gulfstream, we go to Fairgrounds, we're back to Saint

Louis, AL and Santa Anita, that kind of stuff out West as well.

We'll start with Book of Dano and this is a horse that just

ran second in the in the Perryville over 7 furlongs.

Frankly, if that mile, if that had been a mile, I think at

Keeneland, the horse probably wins a three-year old in here.

Steve, do you think Book of Dano has a chance?

A cigar, as far as I'm concerned, yeah, I mean, my, my

concern. I I guess my, my worry would be

I, I, I I feel like does he? Does he is he a victim of some

bad circumstances? I think like he was in the

Perryville when he really, you know, had all that difficulty

squeeze there on the stretch or does his running style sort of

produce bad luck and and difficult circumstances?

And especially, I think if, you know, breaking on the inside

here and not, you know, just gunning for the lead, is he

going to find himself in a really tough position there on

the rail trying to. But, you know, even when he's

had those bad trips, he he finishes really well and is is

right there. And I don't see why that's going

to be any different right now. So absolutely, in my mind, a

contender. Yeah, for me, he's a cigar as

well. We saw him in that Saudi Derby

over the one mile turn there in at Abdul Aziz.

He finished second to a little horse you may have heard of

before. His name is forever young.

And so yes, he's been in some very good company.

Frankly, the, the the race that caught me off guard Steve, was

that he came back from the Arabian Peninsula so well in

that Woody Stevens comes back in that grade one, goes ahead and

wins that thing over 7 furlongs. I think if that race is a mile,

I think it I think he wins by 3 or 4, something like that.

And so obviously an older group to deal with.

You're more experienced group than those 3 year old races he's

been in. But I agree with you that he's

absolutely a must include in this one.

Nelson Ave. is the two horse if you're he's going to come in at

30 to one. I will say this like Luis Saez

in in Kentucky betting against Dylan Davis.

Not the smartest thing in New York there.

Steve Kornacki. He I've been on an absolute tear

and I mean, I, I, you know, close but no cigar for me.

Although I, I, I'm not sure how close it it was to be honest,

but but I'll go over that. Yeah.

I I just one of the things I, I I think, you know, lately been

showing more speed and there's, there seems to be a lot of speed

in here and, and that plus the low figures relatively some

relatively low compared to the field.

Yeah, I just don't think quite up to it. 2 for three at the

distance and one for two at Aqueduct.

I'm a close but no cigar, but I'm actually close here.

Steve. I think this is a horse that can

hit the trifecta. I think this is a horse that if

you're filling out that kind of wager and exotic in this race, I

think you have to include and I think can offer incredible

value. Dylan Davis a big part of that

for me coming out of the pots barn there.

Here's a horse that could ruin your day, folks, and his name is

Repo Rocks. He will be the three horse and

here another 30 to one horse. So Vera getting them out here

for Jamie Ness. He comes in in that 49er.

We're seeing a lot of horses in that late October prep for this

race in the 49er over the the mile there, Steve coming back in

cigar or close, but no cigar for him.

Yeah, I mean, I'm going close, but no cigar.

But yeah, in that, in that 49er, I'm just looking at my notes

right here. Yeah, I mean, yeah, right.

You had, you had, you know, traffic trouble there, you know,

boxed until very late. So, you know, and as certainly

shown in the past, the capability at Aqueduct at the

distance even, you know, even at the level.

I'm just thinking that, you know, now at six and I, I never

quite know what to make of these Jamie Ness horses anyway.

But you know, you know, I just, yeah, I, I kind of, but I, I

was, I, I took a longer look, I think, than I did on, on, on #2.

OK, there you go. I had the opposite reaction.

So he's less close to be no cigar here for him in this case.

Rebel Rocks, though, does have four wins at Aqueduct lifetime

in 15 runs has won this year has kept it.

Look, this is these are these are fun horses, Steve and and

you and I have talked about this on the show.

They get to be 6. They're gelded.

So they're just going to keep running forever.

You get an honest effort every time.

And so I look, I'm not rooting against him by any stretch,

except that I won't be betting on him this weekend.

Insanity comes in. He'll be the four horse.

He's 50 to one. We get the we get the bug boy on

him today. He's running at 112 under

Martinez. It's not a bug, but it's just

there. He's been running.

Look, his last one was in a 25 claimer, Steve.

Close but no cigar, I imagine, for both of us.

Yeah, I, I just, I just don't, I just don't see it here.

So if he wins at 50 to one, or maybe more like 90 to one, it

happens. Yeah, good for them.

That's exactly all right. We move on to Mullikin, Flavi

and Pratt gets them out here for Rudolfry.

Say this horse ran third in that Breeders' Cup Sprint was coming

at the end. It was in the form.

I think the form got this one right.

It went back and watched the Steve Mild rally.

I agree. That's what that was at the

Breeders Cup that Saturday. But before then ran really,

really huge of the four go and in the Nehru before that as

well. Would not be surprised Steve if

he's the favorite of post time. Yeah, and I mean, so I, I, I got

to say cigar because I think, you know, I don't, he's not

going to be my pick, but I, I could see it, you know, when I

look at that, you know, at that Sprint, it was, it was kind of a

weird race. And for him, that's not his

style. You know, he wasn't, you know,

he wasn't really forward. And I, I wondered in that race

too, if it was there was so much.

I mean, it's a Sprint, but there was so much speed there.

I think everybody seemed to assume there's going to be a

meltdown. And I wonder if if if if there

was almost a sense of like, let's let's maybe sit back a

little bit here and not, you know, get get get caught in it.

I was wondering if that had happened, you know, So I think

he again, like the way I see this race in in my mind at

least, you know, kind of playing out.

It maybe is a little more closer friendly.

But no, I mean, look, look what he's done.

You know, I mean, he's won the four go.

He's he's, he's a contender. Yeah, no, I agree.

Total cigar for me here. Like I said, I think because of

the connections that Flavi and Pratt getting them out here, the

likely post time favorite in my mind for this one.

I don't think people will hold that Breeders' Cup against him

who will instead look to that Nehrude form that he had there

before his last run and only run at Aqueduct to date.

Outside of him will be law professor in the 6th hole off

Lay 6 here, 15 to one Kendrick Carbouche.

I saw STAT the other day, Steve, he's hit a hundred wins a year

for something like 15 straight years.

It's just an insane run he's on right now.

It may be longer than that. I'll have to look it up while

you're talking, but just an incredible run.

He's one of these guys, wins a bunch of Aqueduct because he's

willing to stay up there and do the thing.

This is a horse that won in a mile and an eighth here.

One of us, Speaking of Dan Ellman's favorite angles is

going a little bit back in distance.

Do you give the 15 to one law professor a chance here?

This truly is a close but no cigar for me because I, I, you

know, I'm, I'm looking at it, trying to get away from the

obvious ones. And this is this is this is one

I looked at a lot, you know, five or seven at Aqueduct, You

know, I think has won three times at the at the mile.

Ultimately, I to me, I just look at it.

I think that at least recently, the best success has come at a

lower level. And this is the waters are

probably too deep here. I agree.

By the way, I was totally off. It's 24 straight years with 100

points. Karpouch, who's in?

Unbelievable. The entire 21st century.

Literally 01 was the first year. That's right.

It's incredible. It's an incredible run,

Kendrick, if you get it done, buddy, good for you.

I am. I'm betting against you.

But good, good, Anya, if you do get it done.

Pletcher's got locked in here. This was a name we heard a lot

last year because this horse won at Saratoga by a bunch, went

ahead and won a Keeneland in that Grade 1 Breeders fraternity

and then finished third behind Fierceness, but was the favorite

in the Breeders Cup. Juvenile came back this son of

Gun Runner at Aqueduct over 7 furlongs and won by 312 lengths.

Steve, is he a cigar? No close, but no cigar here.

I mean, to me, he's a cigar because he's the he's sort of

the wild card here in that feel. You haven't seen exactly what

he's going to be and the potential is obvious, you know.

But this is again now he's this is great at stakes with older

horses. This is this is not the company

here is vastly different than that last race.

But at the very least he, you know, I think he's shown, you

know, he has the the potential at least.

And, you know, with the with the performance of speed figures

like that. Yeah, it's a cigar to me.

Cigar, he's my top player in here actually.

And so I'm going to take this horse second off the layoff here

for Chad Brown, going from Sprint to route.

But frankly, that's 7 to a mile to me.

Not that much of a step up was so good last time.

Got out of the gate really, really well.

And frankly, just just put that field away, including Gunnett,

who's not a bad horse, by 7 1/2 lengths the minute 21.

It is about right, especially since they were able to gear him

down a little bit at the end of that race.

So yeah, he's a cigar for me for sure in this spot.

And he will be my top play when we get to Saturday.

Pipeline is just to the outside of him there in the 8 hole off

Lasix. Junior Alvarado does get them

out here. 20 to one. Steve Cigar or close, but no

cigar. Close, but no cigar.

I'll pass on a stogie on this one.

Yeah. I just hasn't really got it done

at the at the level we're talking about right here.

Well, and he loves two turns, which is interesting actually,

right. So he's he's been better over

that mile on the 16th course at Churchill Downs.

I'll go close, but no cigar on this one as well.

I think the mile might be OK, but a mile at Del Mar or Santa

Anita, not at Aqueduct. One that I cannot figure out is

Senor Buscador. He's here as well.

He is the Next up. He is the 9.

He is 6 to 1. He will need speed to run at.

The good news for him, I think Steve, is that he will have

speed to run at. Todd Fischer's been training

him. I love this.

By the way, Todd Fischer has been training him at Zia Park.

I love that so much. They're just saying you're

Abuscador just walking around Zia Park in New Mexico doing the

damn thing. Cigar or close, but no cigar.

Well, I'm going to say cigar because I do think he can win

the race. I'm not going to I'm not going

to pick him. I agonized him.

He was when I my first look at this race, he was going to be my

pick and he was going to be my pick because you know, just that

that one turn mile at Aqueduct, you got that.

Well, I think it just it suited to his style.

He's you know, he's pretty much outside there where he can kind

of run where he's comfortable. He was in this race last year

and look, it was it was in the mud.

He's starting to make his run. It was in the mud.

There was a bias that day towards the rail towards the

inside. So I it wasn't really a fair

fight in the stretch and he still got second, still running

at the end. You're right.

I think there's going to be pace here.

It's I can't get over what's happened since he came back from

the Middle East. Each you could end of you could

make an excuse for the for the Breeders cup easily.

You could make an excuse, you know, for the comeback at Del

Mar at 7 furlongs. That's not his game.

Then you add in that that awesome again or California

crown, whatever they call it now.

And now it's now you're trying to make 3 excuses.

I really can't, I can't get past that, that scene on either 1 and

I just wonder if if he's kind of lost his fastball.

It's amazing how good the classic was that he ran A1O3

buyer and we're like that's, but I'm going to be I'm going to

take a stand here and I'm going to go no cigar.

I'm not going to include him in my tickets here just to try to

shorten up a little bit, maybe press a little bit earlier in

those two year old races. But I just don't think this is

his game. Steve.

Now, I do like the long stretch. I like that long sweeping turn

for him because he's going to need to gain that momentum

coming out of the gate. But I'll just go ahead and say

close but no cigar there Steve. I'm going to go first on the

next one and this is for Coastal Mission, 12 to one Arnaldo Boca

Chica coming to town to ride for Jeff Runko.

And this is absolutely a cigar for me.

This is my long shot play in here.

Love Coastal Mission, 5 year old gelded son of Great Notion.

They paid 7500 bucks to breed this guy.

He's made over 1,000,000 bucks in his career.

Those are the kinds of horses we love on the horse racing happy

hour. And I do think he's got a legit

shot here Steve. I thought he looked great in the

49er and I think he's been around enough. 25 career starts.

He's not going to be intimidated by this competition.

Yeah, I, I, I agree with you. I love a good West Virginia

bred. And yeah, I mean, look, I, I

feel like the, the odds, if, if those are the odds you're

getting, this doesn't become like the the trendy pick who

suddenly is, you know, but if those are the odds you're

getting, I think, yeah, the, the concerns I'd have, you know, I

said maybe not quite fast enough, maybe not quite at this

level, but, you know, worth I capable worth a shot always, you

know, dependable. And yeah, I, I, I, I think a

live long shots the way to look at them.

Yeah, the only time he's been off the board was in the

Charlestown Classic. But that's a three turn race.

It's just not his game, right? So I think, I think frankly, in

this case, he's absolutely live. And I think your pick is going

to be on the outside as the Russells come to town.

Breeders cut Dirt Mile alum in post time.

I'll go ahead and click cigar here.

Steve, why does Post Time win this race?

I did this wrong. I see I was holding out till the

end to give you and I've I realize I've given you some.

I'm not taking along the way. I'm not taking post time, Kenny.

With the Kenny with the race though?

Yeah. Oh, he can win.

He can win, you know, And again, he's that's a he's drawn where

he, I think he'd want to be. He's gonna come late.

He does always come late, you know, It's one, you know, I

think he tend. I think he's left himself too

much to do. And I I'm not sure that won't

happen again here by my pick in the race who I, you know, maybe

I didn't sell well enough. I'm going to go book him Dan out

for all I got concerns. Yeah, yeah, no, I mean, I I got

concerns on the inside, but yeah, yeah, that's that.

Yeah. Sorry, I did the segment wrong

here. No, no, not at all.

Actually, it's totally fine. No, because the purpose of the

segment is can I win or not is really yeah, what this comes

down to. I agree with you by the way.

Odd post time, cool story. In the same way, frankly, the

two outside horses here, you get the West Virginia horse, you get

the Maryland horse from those kinds of circuits showing up

here in New York for this. He does seem to be in every

other kind of type as far as his speed figures.

But frankly, I thought he looked really good in that in the Met

mile of a high National Treasure this year ahead of horses like

Hoist the Gold. If he runs that kind of race,

Steve, I think he can absolutely win here.

Frankly, if he repeats the sport from Del Mar, I think he's got a

real shot. Yeah, no, I agree with that.

So there you go. All right, so you are on Book

Emdano and I am going to try the ride the lightly raced locked in

this case I know you got to get going, but do you have a quick

pick for the last race? Yes, I'm going to go Bill Knott

and then go Reynolds Channel. OK, that is a Reynolds channel

Junior Alvarado. There you go.

OK, all right, so he's coming in randon the jerkins earlier this

year. A little bit of time off, but of

course, that is a 22% angle for Mr. Mott as well.

Hey, Steve, we appreciate you, buddy.

Have a good rest of the day and, you know, don't be a stranger.

Maybe, you know, next week to check us out for that little

synthetic championship. How about that?

Yeah, you got it. Good luck.

Good luck Saturday, Louis. And yeah, don't put me on 5th

Ave. anymore. Sorry.

Steve. Sorry.

Sorry. Steve Kornacki, We appreciate

you. Thanks, buddy.

All right, Steve Kornacki. There you go.

He joins us here on the horse racing happy hour.

Man with hard outs. How about that?

I live a life of with a lack of hard outs.

Zack Xander, you understand me? So there you go.

So listen, the good stuff right there.

Steve Kornacki, a horse nerd. I love that guy.

But yeah, no, a fun sequence as well.

The cool thing too, And if you've never tried the bet the

the Grand Slam this weekend, it's a $1.00 bet.

You got to pick top three finishers in the first 3 races,

The winner in the last race, it ends with the Cigar Mile.

This week at Naira might be a fun week for that, frankly,

because if you can catch some of these two year olds in that

second and third spot that don't take as much money as some of

these other horses, got a real shot to clean up on that.

And frankly, if we can catch in the Cigar Mile, you know, if a

horse like Coastal Mission does end up winning the thing, you

know, maybe that's the kind of horse that could get you a big

payout as well in that Grand Slam kind of bet.

But I'm Lou Rabeau, we'll be back tomorrow.

Tomorrow morning, 1020 more Aqueduct talk with our guy.

His name is Matthew DeSantis. He works with Naira bets.

And then tomorrow night you can hear me on the Kentucky Racing

Spotlight guy named Brian Hernandez Junior who piloted

Mystic Dan Torpedo and and of course Rattle and rolled this

year to three big wins. We talked about his year at

Churchill Downs and where frankly, I cool part of the

story there. Where does Torpedo and a fit as

far as the best horses that he's ever gotten to ride in his

stage? But Zach, if you can play the

music and get us out of here, we will do exactly.

We'll