Lecomte Stakes 2025 | Joe Kristufek

All right, welcome in This is the horse racing happy hour for

January 15th, a special Wednesday edition, a birthday

edition of the program. His name is Joey K Did you?

I mean, you weren't going to tell me it was your.

Birthday. No, I wasn't.

Outside of having to answer all the texts and all the Facebook

messages and the phone calls. And it's great.

It is great people recognize you on the day you entered this

world, but you get to my age, you you kind of would rather

stop counting. So yeah, all good.

I appreciate the appreciate the kind words and I've I've had a

pretty good birthday week so far.

My dad said something like, once you turn 25 and you can rent a

car and run for Congress, it's over.

You know, like that's. Essentially, I like it.

I like it. Yeah, so there you go, Joe

Christophek. Of course, I'll be on the desk

there at Fairgrounds today, tomorrow, whatever day that you

need, are watching races there. Certainly not today, but getting

into the weekend, Big 114 races on Lecomte Day, just one of the

very best days of the year down there.

Or 12 days, 12 rounds, excuse me, 14 horses in that lecamp,

which we'll get to in a minute. You know, Joe, you, how long

have you been going to fairgrounds, man?

I know this is just part of your life now, being down there doing

the fairgrounds things. How many years have you been

heading down there? This is my eighth season here.

Awesome. This place.

I don't know if you've been to New Orleans.

Have you been? New Orleans, but not so

fairgrounds, Yeah. OK, Yeah, New Orleans is just a

special, special place. It's a great meet at

Fairgrounds. We kind of build, you know,

every four weeks there's a big event.

They become bigger and bigger and bigger all the way to

through the Louisiana Derby. And I live in a great area where

I can walk to some great bars and restaurants.

And, you know, being down here, I not only enjoy the job that I

do at Fairgrounds, but I enjoy the atmosphere.

I went to the memorial yesterday, last night actually,

and you know, it was, it was a little tough, but you know, the

people around here are very resilient and it's like I said,

a very special place and I'm very privileged to be able to

come here every winter. Yeah, it's awesome.

You and you and Dooley holding down the Fort there at

Fairgrounds for sure, which is always spectacular.

Love John Dooley on the calls down there.

Joe Christafek with us here on the Horse Racing Happy Hour.

You got 2 preps this weekend. You've got the Oaks prep in the

Silver Bullet Day. You've got the Derby prep in the

Lecompt. We'll play our usual weekly game

of a buy or sell with the Lecompt later on.

But in this Silver Bullet Day, three kind of favorites on the

inside there. It's a good value.

I think it's some other spots as well, one of the open with sort

of a generic question for a guy like Joe K who has to put out,

you know, picks every single day.

You're capping all kinds of races from low level claimers up

to a race like the Le Comp. But when we get into this time

of year, Joe, where we're talking about stretch outs,

we're talking about horses making that move from age 2 to

age 3. What are the like two or three

things that you're mostly looking at when you're trying to

figure out, you know, a Silver Bull a day or a Le Compte?

Yeah, that's a great question. So I put a lot of work in, you

know, watching videos, watching replays, and you know, it's for

a lot of different things. You're looking for pace, you're

looking for trips, but you're also looking for

professionalism. You're looking for horses that

seemingly have heart. You're looking for horses that

you know, show that desire down to the finish line, horses that

can overcome adversity, you know, and then you're looking at

the pedigrees too, and you're trying to figure out whether or

not they're bred to do a certain thing.

Once they prove what they can do, you can throw the pedigrees

kind of out the window once they, you know, try to turn to

try turf or try everything, you know what without having a, a

viable excuse for not doing something necessarily well.

And then, you know, Bruno Di Giulio and his team, they've got

the the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund.

They've got a website up with some of the workouts, you know,

see all of them, but you do get to see a good amount,

particularly of the better horses and those workouts and

watching those videos kind of put the finishing touches on

what I'm doing. Yeah, there's nothing like

actually laying your eyes on the horse, right?

The past performances can only go so far as you know, just the

general information. They're very helpful, for sure.

It's a great place to start. But yeah, if you don't see those

horses, Joe, and especially how they finish races when we're

talking about 6:00 and 7:00 furlong races, moving into these

mile 70s, these mile and a 16th kind of races that we're going

to see both in the Silver Bullet day and in the how they finish

is so, so important to me. I was talking the colleague of

yours, Tony Kalo a couple of weeks ago and I gave, I think it

was Laganos of all things was O for 9 for the year, but how that

horse had finished in a race at Keeneland.

Just watching it, I thought, you know what, that horse is going

to breakthrough at some point. I'll go ahead with that.

I feel like stretch out season it, it involves a lot of

trusting your instincts on what your eyeballs are showing you.

1,000,000% And part of that too is, you know, the gallop out

scenario, how they got to the finish line and then how they

gallop out. So the horses all out to the

finish line and they still gallop out.

Well, you know what, maybe the pace scenario wasn't in their

favor. You know, that's something I'm

really, really looking for. If the pace scenario was in

their favor and they're wrapped up across the finish line,

they're not going to gallop out well because they're already

pulling up, you know, earlier than some of the other horses.

So you got to take all that into consideration, man.

It's a fascinating game. You can never know too much.

You can never watch too much. You know, eyes, ears to the

pavement and, you know, talking to people on the backstretch and

getting a sense for their confidence as well.

So just trying to put that puzzle together and turn it into

some wages at the window. Joe Christophe with us.

Part of that puzzle, Joe, is how the track is playing.

We're talking about lots of different kinds of races on the

car. No balls in a, you know, in

$100,000 stakes down there, sprinting, obviously on the

grass with that one. How is the track playing this

year? We've seen different biases in

different places, but how is it playing at Fairgrounds this

year? Yeah.

I mean, I think for the most part, especially in Sprint races

on any dirt track, it's going to be a little bit on the forward

side. Races are always to me a great

equalizer. Even on a racetrack that can be

deemed as bias for the most part.

There are certain race tracks for the inside as an absolute

Expressway and and you know that the rail is good and you know

the track is biased regardless of the distance.

But for the most part here for a dirt track, I think the track

plays plays pretty fair, quite honestly.

And you know, especially like I said in these two turn races.

But then again, every single day is a little bit different.

If you had rain two days before you got a drying out track, you

just always got to pay attention to it.

I keep pretty detailed bias notes in the DRF Formulator, a

program that I use. He is Joe Christafeck, he's down

there in New Orleans. So let's get into these two

stakes races. The Silver Bullet Day is race 9

on the card on Saturday, $150,000 for three-year old

fillies here. Obviously, we are on the road to

the Kentucky Oaks. Joe, you may not remember this,

but my very early days of actually covering horse racing,

you and I in 2019 were on the same Oaks horse, believe it or

not, and we stood next to each other for the Oaks race in

Section 322 of all things. And her name was Serengeti

Efforts. That's exactly right.

And I remember. I had a that's when my pics were

actually in the program. We don't do that anymore.

We don't like those short deadlines.

They're only on the website. But people, when I was walking

out, people were chanting my name.

I had a huge day, came back on Derby Day and they were not

chanting my name. They.

Were looking for. Me that day for all sorts of

different reasons. So you can either be a hero or a

goat. But yeah, because I I saw her.

I mean, run through the preps at fairgrounds and do the back

story. You know, she didn't look good

paper going into that race, but I knew she was coming into it

well and we certainly got a better price than we thought we

were going to get. Oh my goodness.

I just remember my Co host Mike Gandolfo at the time, he and I,

we were backside and I was still getting used to the backside

thing. Joe, I had not gotten to do

that. You've been at this for a very

long time. I I, I didn't attend a horse

race till I was in my 20s. I came from a part of the

country that just didn't have horse racing.

Fell in love with it once I moved here to Louisville.

But I just remember she walked by and I said, whose Derby

runner is that? And someone said, no, no, that's

a Philly. And I said, what's her name?

I'm betting on her. I don't care what the race is

like. I just saw her.

I just saw her. And and then, you know, then I

got to know the Tom Amos story and those kinds of things.

And it just, it made it even, you know, more of a, you know,

it came together more of in, in those pieces.

But I do remember, do you know what you said right after that

race? How good your day was?

This is how good your day was. You looked right at me and I

said, hey, man, good, nice pick. And he went, yeah, I didn't have

the exacta though. Yeah.

What are you doing, dude? I just had her across the board.

I was thrilled. It wasn't that the year 2, that

maximum security got disqualified.

That cost me a bunch of money. And the double, I always play

that oak sterley double, oak sterley double.

And yeah, but that was the killer.

I was 1, you know, Louis. And when you're a horse player,

you know, and I've learned over the years, you know, to pick my

spot, even when you win, you could have won more.

Oh, of course, yes, right. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Oh, I could have pressed in this leg of the pick 5 or whatever.

Yes, 100% yes, right. Yeah, for sure.

But there you go. There's our oak story together

in 322 before they boy, Darren has since moved us to.

We've been at the same table since I mean, for as as long as

I can remember. But yeah, we were having to be

next to one another for that one.

Look, this is a a good rendition of the Silver bullet day eight

horses here. I think you can make legitimate

cases for probably 6 or 7 here, Joe.

Yeah, me too. I mean Mike Della Berto made

simply joking the morning line favor for Whit Beckman.

She broke her maiden and mistake on untappable day when Whit also

on the untappable with her laugh and before the race and after

the race and her laugh on the untappable.

This maiden won a Sprint stake that wasn't nearly, as you know,

high profile. He said the whole time that

simply joking was better than her lap.

So if her lap was good enough to win the Untappable and he's got

simply joking in the Silver bullet day, you know it doesn't

take a genius to try to figure out that she's probably pretty

live in here. Yeah, I agree with you.

Yeah, Whit Beckman, of course, had Anna Marie in the Kentucky

Derby last year. He, his kids go to the same

school as mine. How about that?

That's how local horse racing is here in Louisville as well.

Brad Cox has the horse on the inside in chasing, and on the

outside we see Bless the Broken with the track configuration of

Fairgrounds. For people who may not play your

track very often. Is the outside post, is that a

problem in these two turn races? We'll talk about that when we

get to the Le Cop. Or will they have enough time

going into that first turn to make their movement?

Yeah, it kind of depends on all the how it plays out.

I mean, I I wouldn't be too worried in a field of eight

having the a post. I'm, you know, I don't think

Bless the Broken has a ton of speed necessarily.

There is some other speed obviously to the inside.

I think that could become more of a factor in the Risen Star

where we've got fourteen horses and a mile and a 16th race

charging into that first term. You know, the Risen Star, when

we get to a mile and 8th, there's a lot longer run in the

first turn, and then Louisiana Derby at a mile and three

sixteenths and the Kentucky Derby in a mile and a quarter, a

lot longer run into the first turn.

So you got a little bit more time to sort things out.

And you know, a lot of it has to do with how much speeds in the

race, how tactical your horse is.

Getting hung out wide to dry on that first turn is almost always

detrimental. We have seen many of these

horses between the Louisiana and Kentucky circuits.

She's a Swede, comes in here, the seven horse for Kenny Mcpeep

broker maiden going two turns last out at Fairgrounds.

Does that usually translate there?

If a horse is is performing well over the two turns, are they

able to come back usually at fairgrounds like that?

Yeah, I mean, I like the two turn experience for sure.

We'll talk about, you know, chasing obviously Disco Time and

the Risen star to Brad Cox, horses that haven't been two

turns yet. But you know, he believes that

moving forward that they're going to be two turn horses

based on what they show in the mornings.

She's a sweet. I mean, she was really game in

that race last time. But you know, the race came off

the turf. I'm not sure what she beat that

particular day. But if you're Ken Mcpeak and

you've already won a maiden or you want a first level allowance

and you're on the grounds, it's not like he's shipping this

horse somewhere. It doesn't hurt to take a shot.

Yeah, she's a sweet daughter of American Pharaoh.

We've seen many of those of course transition to the grass

and do it well. Look, I know we're not going to

talk about the race here Joe, but one of my favorite things

that seems to be either correcting course or we're just

getting it for a year. I don't know yet because we we

haven't gotten to see a play out as we're getting so many of

these three-year old two turn dirt horses back this coming

season, right? We get so many good ones start

on the Philly side with Torpedo Anna, of course, but then it

gets into Sierra Leone fierceness.

So many of those horses that we saw do great things last year.

This Louisiana Stakes man, now two years in a row, has drawn a

really very bettable, very watchable field.

I mean, you guys have to be thrilled with how that race has

gone the last couple. Years.

Yeah, those handicapped races turn out well because there are

horses in and I'm going to just pull up.

I got the PP sitting here and I haven't, like I told you before,

I haven't dug into it really. I get it.

I totally get it. Yeah, I mean, Hit Show is

legitimate. You know, you've got Skinner

first start for Cherie Devoe. He's extremely legitimate.

You got Track Phantom, who won the Lecomte and the Gun Runner

last year, Maycox Bay, who's looking to prove that he

belongs, which takes company that was so good last time.

You know, outside of the two three-year old races.

I mean this, this is the race I'm looking most forward to.

I'm going to dig a lot deeper into it.

Hit Show is the deserving favorite, but you know, he

doesn't necessarily have to win. And we're not talking about a

seven to five favorite here. We're talking about a 2 to one,

five to two, with several other horses in the five to one range

that you could certainly sink your teeth into if you like them

enough. Yeah, No, I mean, like for

example, Warrior Johnny and Pipeline are the two and three

horse here. They've both, they're both over

a half million in earnings career wise.

They're 11:50 to 1:00 in this field.

I mean, it's just it has turned into a very, very nice race and

nice spot I think on the calendar for so many of these

older horses who are ready for a stakes race this time of year

that maybe they can't find another spot.

So just wanted to bring that up before we do talk Lecomte

because it it has turned into year.

I mean, I think this is now three years in a row where I've

thought, man, that's a really nice feel for the Louisiana.

Yeah, no doubt. And then a lot of times it's

horses that are just getting their campaigns.

You know, they're not quite ready for a race like the

Pegasus. They're not quite ready to go

overseas and run in Dubai or Saudi.

Maybe they will eventually, but it's a good starting point.

And yeah, it's a deep field from top to bottom.

Great betting race. It's still a great at stakes.

At the end of the day, we do move to the Le Compte that'll

close the card. Race 12 at Fairgrounds on

Saturday track Phantom Instant coffee called me midnight

midnight bourbon and enforceable before War of will.

Before that, of course, the Preakness winner in 2019 as well

as winners MO Tom on this list, OXPO.

This is hard spuns on this list. This is this is a race that if

you win it, Joe, you're probably going to win some more races

after it. Yeah, for sure.

And it's just a natural progression.

We added the gun runner. You know, this was the 4th

running this year, the final opportunity for two year olds to

gain some points. And then you go to the Le Compte

and you know honestly that the Risen Star is the best race of

the four. And it's not the final race.

The Louisiana Derby is, but we saw last year with Sierra Leone.

We've seen in recent runnings the Risen Star is as strong as

of a prep that we have, not only in fairgrounds but in the

country. Because a lot of those horses

that run in the and Star wind up going to the Bluegrass because

that's a grade one and the Louisiana Derby's a grade 2.

And that still means something in this industry and in the the

pedigree world. So yeah, the Lecomte's a great

race, and it only gets better once we move into the middle of

February with the Risen Star. We like to play a game on this

show, Joe, where you tell me if a horse can win the race or not.

In this case, because Lecomte was named after a a breeder

named Ambrose Lecompt, they named a tout of Louisiana after

this guy. How about that?

We're going to say if they can win ambrosia and if they cannot

hemlock. Now, obviously we don't want any

death on this show. That's not what we're doing

here. But I had to come up with

something to go against ambrosia.

And I think of ancient Greece when I think of ambrosia.

Joe so they so. Let's play a little.

Can win Lecompt if they can't. And then a hemlock if they

can't. Hemlock if they can't.

Ambrosia if they can. OK.

All right. Quarter billion bucks and the

Kitty for this one. It is a grade 3, obviously 3

year olds here, 20 point. It is the first of the 20 point

races after Joe has to depart to hang out with other celebrities

in New Orleans. I will tell you about our Triple

Crown challenge for this year as part of the podcast, so make

sure you are tuned in for that. Innovator is in the one hole

here for D Wade Lucas and Jaime Torres obviously teamed up on

Seize the Great in the Preakness last year and won that one.

And the Pennsylvania Derby, of course, and the Pat de Mile

Churchill Downs before that broke his maiden last outgoing 6

furlong in the mud. We go in ambrosia or hemlock on

this one here, Joe. I am going to go hemlock on this

and I do believe the horse has talent, but again, stretching

out, has the rail, probably makes the lead, but there's a

ton of other horses that in this race that want to go forward.

The pedigree doesn't speak to two terms, but Dewayne Lucas is

Dewayne Lucas. He's going to try it.

If the horse won and paid $35 I wouldn't be shocked, but if I

have to choose I will go hemlock on this one.

I mentioned the mud at Oaklawn Park.

It looks like a bit of rain this coming weekend.

What are you kind of anticipating for actual La

Compte? You shrug your shoulders.

So you don't know because you live in that kind of part of the

country? Yes.

Well, it's true. And you know, you've got the

forecast coming out with rain expected for Saturday.

I've seen days here where we've had 100% chance of rain and we

haven't gotten a drop and days where we have a 5% chance of

rain and it rains for two hours. So it's still only Wednesday.

Things can change a little bit. There is some rain in the

forecast on Saturday, but no rain on Friday, no rain on

Sunday, so I think there's still an opportunity for it to change.

I was talking to track announcer Matt Dinerman from Oakland Park

the other day on our ESPN Louisville show here and I was

asking him about fairgrounds shippers to to Oakland and how

they were faring. How are horses from coming from

Oakland faring so far at fairgrounds this year?

We haven't had a, there's a ton of them, quite frankly.

I mean, I think, you know, the purses are so good at Oaklawn

that a lot of times you'll see horses coming from Oaklawn here

because maybe they're not quite good enough to compete in a

first level allowance. But from a stakes perspective,

you know, this is the first big day since the Gun Runner and the

Oaklawn meat was just getting started then.

So we've only seen a couple handfuls of them.

You know, you got to evaluate each horse for what they are in

the races that they're coming out of.

Coming out of a dominating win in August at Ellis Park over

that 1 1/2 turn mile, there is Brian Hernandez, Junior Candy

Mcpeak and Maximum promise combination we may have heard of

here and I may have voted for for some Eclipse awards in this

one. A son of maximum security.

Full circle on that one there, Joe.

Are we going hemlock or we going a little ambrosia for this one?

Is there? I'm going to go.

I'm going to go hemlock again only because it's tough off a

long layoff like this man, I saw that horse went in Ellis.

He looked awesome. I haven't talked to Kenny Mcpeak

yet. I don't see any workout videos

posted for this horse, so I haven't done all my due

diligence yet. But it's just a big ask against

this field going 2 terms when you haven't raced inside the

middle of summer. So I'm going to be against this

one. Of course has been at

fairgrounds for a while working there as well.

Kenny Mcpeak and Brian Hernandez hitting at 14% currently at

fairgrounds, at least in recent races.

Admiral Dennis will take the three hole here.

Joel Rosario in town to ride for Brad Cox and this one was in the

gun runner up the track a bit, but now does have that two turn

experience here. Joe Ambrosia or Hemlock for this

one. You know I'm going to stay

hemlock on a lot of horses that people would probably stay

ambrosia for because you know, I want to only give you 4

contenders that I think you know, have the best chance to

win per SE. This is a horse that was the big

favorite. Obviously in the gun Runner, he

does have an excuse. He did stumble horribly coming

out of the starting gate. Didn't show a whole heck of a

lot thereafter. Brad's got disco time in this

race as well. Can this horse rebound?

Yes. What kind of price are you going

to get? It's going to be to see how the

betting to him after the way he ran in the gun runner with the

excuse, so I'm going to be against him as well.

He is a son of constitution, a very rare matchup of Joel

Rosario and Brad Cox's only six such get togethers over the last

year and change magnitude will be in the four hole a welcome.

And and I I've said this on other other shows and with other

people, Joe, I don't know that anyone had a better transitional

2024 than Jose Ortiz moving to Kentucky with his tack and then

of course, deciding to ride at fairgrounds in the winter.

Whoever's helping him make decisions this year.

Joe, I think has done a terrific job because he's had a great

year. I I I haven't checked in with

Jose. I talked to him last, I think

right up ahead of the Jeff Ruby of all things.

But I'd love to know how the move went if his family's

enjoying and those kinds of things.

But as far as horse racing is concerned, boy, that move to

fairgrounds has been terrific for him, yeah.

He's the leading jockey in the standings.

He's riding first call for Steve Asmus and it's interesting,

though I'm not sure what Steve's got this year in the three-year

old ranks for the males. I mean, his tastic right now

might be his best. He was third in the Kentucky

Jockey Club. This horse Magnitude, you know,

he was a distant second in the gun runner behind a horse we're

going to talk about in a little bit in built and I just think he

is what he is. You know Steve always talks

about continuing to get better along the road to the Kentucky

Derby and I don't know how much upside this horse has honestly.

He's a nice horse. He's an honest horse can

probably win some minor stakes along the way.

Is he top tier Kentucky Derby caliber?

I'm going to give him a hemlock too.

You know he's got a lot of lengths to turn around on built

and he had a perfect trip outside of built that day.

Know the pace was slow, but I just think we, you know,

probably going to run 4th or 5th, They'll run a good race.

They'll represent well, but not not a horse that I'm going to

back on the one end magnitude. Does seem to be in every other

type of races. 1-3 and five he did not win.

Races two and four he did win. This will be his sixth career

start for the son of not this time.

We moved to Optical, the five horse here, a name we get very

used to there in New Orleans between Dezormo and Jimmy

Graham, of course, in the irons, 20 to one.

Very fair price if you wanted to back this one, Hemlock or we go

to brochure here, Joe. I'm going to go hemlock again.

Keith's been known to pull out some upsets here.

He's pulled out some upsets everywhere and especially here

at fairgrounds. But this horse just isn't fast

enough. Although I saw a recent work,

he's putting blinkers on. I saw a recent work, he worked

really well with the blinkers on.

Maybe he can take a step forward.

Maybe this is a horse that you can put into your try and and

add some spice that he's going to be every bit of 30 to one.

I don't think he can win the race, but I do think he can

surprise some people and, you know, maybe get his number in a

trifecta. Another jock who has taken,

well, frankly, to New Orleans is Axel Concepcion.

He'll have the mount aboard Golden Afternoon in the 6th hole

here. That horse coming off the turf

for all three of its runs, did win on debut at Kentucky Downs,

then ran in that bourbon and ran a very good second before that.

20 to one here, man. If you wanted, I guess, hey, if

you wanted to take a shot, this is this is weird to take a shot.

Shot here was in the vodka race a barn.

We're seeing that transition now from dad to son here.

This coming very recently. I think it was this week, in

fact, Ambrosia or hemlock here for the 6th hole in golden

afternoon. I'm going to surprise.

You. I'm going to go ambrosia on this

one. This is Nick Bodka, Race's first

career starter. He's been at Fairgrounds himself

personally since the end of October with this horse.

He's very engaged with how this horse is doing.

Horse has shown already, you know, some heart on the turf and

if you look at the pedigree, his grand dam is a coma.

A coma was a really good horse on turf, dirt, synthetic.

She could run on anything. This is the first fall out of

her actual dam and although she's only run on turf, she's

got two turn experience. He does golden afternoon and he

had a monster work the other day where he absolutely left his

work made in the dust and galloped out huge through the

turn. This is this is my sleeper in

the field. I think he's going to run big.

You know, you would think that almost it was planned that Nick

Vakaresa is debuting as a trainer.

As you know what, his name on the program for this race would

certainly be a nice flash if he were to win it, or at least it

hit the board here. Are we going to get another

shoot the nickel like we did for Adrian Devoe and she had her

first time starter this year. Only time will tell if Joe is

right. You'll get paid folks.

So that's golden afternoon making the first trip to the

ambrosia side of things for us here.

Calling card will be in the seven hole.

Frankie Notori in town to ride. How about that?

Maybe you'll get to watch him jump off a horse in a winner's

circle there in New Orleans. He's in the ride for Mike Baker

in this one horse comes out of a one mile 2 turn race, though at

Oakland against winners for the first time before that one.

His debut as a New York bred at Aqueduct over the one turn mile

there by over 17 legs. Man, that is an absolutely

insane number. We go in Ambrose, we go in

Hemlock here. I'm going to.

Go hemlock again. I saw that last race at Oaklawn.

I'll tell you what, fan man, if you're looking at Kentucky Derby

future, wager pool number three. I thought he looked really good

in that race at Oaklawn. He just seems like the kind of

horse that's not going to have a problem moving forward with a

mile and 1/4. This horse was a distant third

behind him, so I guess if you look in the company lines, you

can give this horse a chance. I just think he got a great trip

that day. He didn't run very fast.

Overall. Doesn't look like a horse to me

that's going to get better as we get from a mile to a mile and a

16 to a mile and an eighth upwards.

So I'm going to take a stand against him as well, and he'll

probably be, you know, 810 to one in this race, I would guess.

Yeah, calling. Card finishing second or excuse

me, third of nine. Last out was the second betting

favorite in that one at Oaklawn Park.

We moved a tough catch he is going to wear #8 for Dallas

Stewart. Luis SAE is in town, of course

to ride for this one. Slow start for Luis down there

after tearing it up at Churchill in November.

Of course doing most of his riding at Gulfstream Park.

This is a horse with a lot of early speed.

Saw this horse win the Sugar Bowl.

Last out. I I have a rule this time of

year, I trust Dallas Stewart. What says Joe Christophak?

Yeah, man, this is a tough one. I'm going to go hemlock on this

one too, although I think this horse will probably outperform

his odds. You look at the pedigree, it's

mostly Sprint, the Grand Am, though she made 600,000.

She won the fantasy during the course of her career, which is

A2 turn race for three-year olds at Oak Lawn.

This horse has heart, displayed it in the most recent race when

he won the Sugar Bowl here. So I just don't think against

this field two turns for the first time.

I think he'll run pretty well, but I just can't see him

winning. Tough catch in the 8, Dapper

Moon in the 9 Which? What a great horse.

Named Dapper Moon, son of Malibu Moon, of course.

Edgar Morales gets the ride here.

Underrated 19% winning percentage for Edgar Morales

right now. Yeah, and it's Dallas Stewart's

other runner, I believe alone, Louisiana bred in the field.

He too has got art. He showed it when he won over

Hawija and an allowance race last time.

This is a horse. It's got two turn experience of

breeders through Charity St. Sense.

Kentucky Jockey Club went forward in those races and you

know, ran fairly well to be fourth in a couple of them.

I see a similar scenario here, a forward trip, losing some ground

in the stretch. So I'm going to go hemlock with

him too. OK, wow.

Man oh man, these poor horses. I'll tell you what.

You know what? You know what happens?

No. When you get to a 14 horse

field, of course you have to say no to a bunch.

I mean, it's are you like me, like you get to the Derby?

Do you start with who you think won't win the race?

Because that's what I do. I try to eliminate horses before

I pick the winner. Yeah, Yeah, I think I do that

whatever ways I I go through them.

You set up the pay scenario and then you, you know, eliminate

horses at a don't look fast enough and the pay scenario is

against them and you start from there, whether it's a Derby or a

non 2 for five on a Thursday. The tent hole is no better than

good one on debut under Kendra Carmouche at Saratoga in

September. Kennedy Peak bringing this one

down. Colby Hernandez gets them out

here. If you wanted to be positive

about this, the sprinter route number for Kennedy Peak is 15%.

He comes off these kinds of layoffs at 19%.

Joe, is this a little bit too much here, though?

Yeah, I mean. This is a great race for Kennedy

to bring this horse back, give him some two turn experience,

put him where he belongs next time, whether that's in an open

race at Fairgrounds or at Oak Lawn or even just getting this

horse back to New York where he belongs because he's a New York

bred. Take advantage of that program.

You'll see trainers do this. Sometimes you you throw them to

the wolves in a comeback race just kind of trying to get an

acid test for them. And I think that's what the

story is with this horse. So I'll go out hemlock and all

capitals for this one. There you go, four horses left,

you're going to get 3 positive responses from a guy named Joe

Christafeck at Fair Gonzales. I'm just kidding.

There's two. He's out there at the

fairgrounds. He'll be on the desk, of course,

on Saturday for Le Compte and Super Bowl today in Louisiana

today and whatever else other race, Colonel, the Colonel races

this week. Colonel who?

Oh my gosh, how are? You power.

That's right. What a name, by the way, I'll

never have a name that cool. Disco Time is in the 11th for

Ross Giroux. For Brad Cox, this is a horse

that's 2 for two. Lifetime comes in at two off the

one turn mile win against winners for the first time.

Last out. Joe, I imagine this has to be an

ambrosia for you. Yeah, this.

Is going to be even though he's making his two turn debut I know

Brad is always like this horse. He's an imposing physical

specimen. He's been working heads up in

the mornings with Encino who is I believe running tomorrow.

He's running, I believe he's running Thursday.

So he looks good. He look good in the gallop out

in the work. He's 2 for two.

He's got mostly Sprint influences in the pedigree, but

he looks like a big horse is probably going to be have no

issue with distance moving forward.

I think this is one of Brad Cox's better three-year old

Colts. So, you know, I don't think he

needs to be on the lead. I think he'll break and try to

sit a stalking trip, but I'm going to go ambrosia for this

one as well. Joe going.

Ambrosia for a Cox on the the male side of things on the cult

side of things as far as the Derby Trail.

We know how loaded Cox is on the Oaks side of things to go to

Jolly Samurai. The 12 here out of the Pitch

Barn did run in the Springboard mile last out at Remington Park

before that did win a black type stakes there as well over 7

furlongs. Joe Hemlocker, we going ambrosia

with this one. Nah, we're going.

Unlock with this horse just doesn't look fast enough.

Looks like the connections are probably wanting to get a table

in the dining room at Fairgrounds and enjoying New

Orleans for the day. That's my guess.

I mean, it's worth taking a shot.

Where else you going to run this horse?

He's already run three times. You're not going to run an

allowance race against older horses because those don't even

really come up at this time of year.

You're going to run in stakes and you know, you might as well

take your shot. Cold Battle to come back to win

his next third, the Smarty Jones at Oak Lawn.

It looks to be somewhat legitimate.

So they're taking a shot here. But yeah, I will.

I'll definitely be against this one.

Yeah, you're right about this time of year I was joking with

with some another guest that I haven't written 2024 instead of

2025 on anything, but I have written, I have written 3 and up

instead of four and up and we're not in three and up season right

now. So that's a shame on me.

There you go, some of the major. Races at fairgrounds we're at,

we're 3 and up for some of them. But yeah, you're right, we're

not the four and up yet in the three and up in the better races

yet, Yeah, not. Quite yet built comes in in the

13 the Cat Man when Catalano had him on the Kentucky racing

spotlight a couple months back when he went over 3000 career

wins and absolute mainstay there at fairgrounds did win the gun

runner with this horse by let's say 7 million lengths.

I can't see it anyways and so Jared Loveberry obviously

getting the amount here again was ahead of magnitude some

other horses that we mentioned that will be in this field again

Joe can he can he repeat that performance he.

Certainly can. I'll go ambrosia and all caps on

this one. You know he made an easy lead

from the rail last time. Couple of other horses stumble

out of the gate, including rendered judgment.

We mentioned Admiral Dennis earlier.

He got an easy lead. He won 49 and change for good

horses. That is super slow.

But if you look at the way he did it, he was relaxed off the

far turn. He just left magnitude who was

in a perfect, you know, stalking pressing spot left him in his in

his dust was wrapped up underneath the the finish line

and galloped out great. He's got a big imposing stride,

good physical and you know, Catalano drew post 13 here.

I thought, you know, maybe maybe he's going to scratch because he

doesn't like the post. It's a tough post, but there's

456 horses that are going to go out.

If he can just somehow not miss to lose too much ground on that

first turn and sit a stalking trip, this horse can sit 4th or

5th and win. So I see that scenario playing

out for him and we'll see if it does.

Yeah, we saw him at Keeneland in his maiden run.

End up sitting right off the hip of the leader for quite a bit.

Gets into that main stretch there at Keeneland over the

seven furlong course and pull away in that one as well.

Seattle Rd. on the outside. I think this is the my favorite

name in the field between Quality Rd. and Seattle Slang on

the damn side, of course. 20 to one here.

You do get Marcelino Pedroza, Junior for Tom Amos becoming

more and more of a combination, especially when they run

together at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

But where do we see this one broke its main last time at

fairgrounds over this course. Yeah, I'll go.

Hemlock on this one too. Tough post got a dream run.

If you watch that the replay got a dream run up the rail in his

most recent start. I do like the way galloped out.

I do think he's got an opportunity to to continue to

progress. I just think, you know, he's

going to have to work a lot of magic from that outside post.

This horse likes to come from off the pace, but what are they

going to do? Take him back to dead last in

the field of 14? Try to make one big run, pass as

many horses as you can. This is another worse though,

that I would consider using in the try because he's going to be

a big price and he's going to be running late in the race.

That should have an honest pace to it, Marcelito.

Pedroza, in an era where I see a lot of chatter online about is

my jockey riding through the finish line, has more 3rd place

finishes than he does 2nd and 1st place finishes.

And it's not because he's quitting, it's because he's

riding through the line and we'll get you there.

So if you need a horse, maybe for a trifecta kind of play, it

might be Seattle Rd. on the outside.

If someone is watching on Saturday, Joe, and you know, I

have on our show sheet, you know, take out rates and

different things, what kind of bets would you tell people are

the best, You know, as far as bang for the buck at New

Orleans, you know, down there at fairgrounds, I I seem to think

it just in this is totally anecdotal, but just playing

double S at at fairgrounds seems to be a pretty fruitful way to

play fairgrounds. Yeah.

On a. Day-to-day basis, we've had a

lot of favorites win here during the early portions of the meet.

But you know, you're seeing these pick 5.

Some of them they're not paying great.

They're paying 23500 bucks. But if you got 2 singles and a

pick 5 sequence and you can, you know, come up with a $36 ticket

and get back 304 hundred 500, there's nothing wrong with that.

You just got to catch, you know, 1 price and the sequence.

Saturday, though, is a whole different animal there.

There's full field, there's ridiculously competitive races.

You know, try to take advantage of your best opinions.

To me, I'd rather think a good amount of my bankroll into a

pick five. Try to take a shot at A at a

nice score. If you like a long shot, you

know, don't be afraid to play and one of these big fields

stacking across the board wager exactas are great.

You mentioned the double S, the pick threes.

If you got a key and a pick three sequence.

There's a lot of different ways on a card like this to take

advantage of horses that you have strong opinions on.

So they'll be married, necessarily to one wager, be

married to the horses you like the most.

Well, there you go. Is Joey.

Christophec at Joey Decay racing on Twitter and all of the other

places he's down there at fairgrounds in New Orleans.

We appreciate him playing hemlock and playing game Frozen

with us here. All the horse racing happier.

Joe I honestly don't know how we've gone this long.

You haven't been on the show, so I appreciate you jumping on.

Yeah, that was a. Typical for somebody to, you

know, out of 14 horses only have three they think can win.

I mean, I think I'm going out of.

I mean, that means I like to race, right?

I should be firing on this race. I got three horses I like quite

a bit. Yeah, I.

It sounds like you should indeed.

All right, Joe, we appreciate you very much.

Happy birthday. Cheers to you.

Have a great week down there and, and, and look, maybe we'll

talk to you in a month. How about that sounds?

Good. Thanks for having me.

Appreciate it. Alright.

Thanks, Joe. There you go, Joe Christophe

down there in New Orleans. Appreciate him joining us here

on the horse racing happy hour. We are very excited to announce

our Triple Tron challenge for this year.

So if you're on social media, come find us wherever you find

us. There we have, it's a very

simple Google doc. Essentially the Derby preps all

the way through the Belmont. The Triple Crown races are 200

points and then all the other races are based on the Derby

points that they will be ascribed ahead of the Kentucky

Derby. So we're starting with the

Lecomte this weekend. It's a 20 point race.

You put in your A horse. If that horse scratches your B

horse, which you always put or you also put in, we'll be your

horse for that race. If they both scratch, we'll give

you the post time favorite in that race.

So it's that simple. Look for us at Horse Happy Hour

on Twitter. You can e-mail the show if you

need to, horseracinghappyhour@gmail.com.

I'll send you the link for that as well, but I'm Louis Ribbo.

This has been the Horse racing happy Hour for January 15th of

2025. Thanks to Joe Christophec for

joining us from Fairgrounds ahead of this one.

We'll talk on Friday to his colleague Kevin Kilroy at 10:40

on Ribbo and Co, if you are so inclined to get a little bit

more about more of the stakes races that'll happen there on

Saturday at Fairgrounds For producer Zach, who is busy

today, I'm Lou Rabo, we'll see you next week on the Horse

Racing Happy Hour.