Road to Pimlico | Dan Illman & Kali Francois

All right, welcome in. This is a January 23rd edition

of the Horse Racing Happy Hour, of course, our Road to Pimlico

series. Once again we're presented by

Amwager for all of these. Really pleased to be joined by

Dan Illman from the Maryland Jockey Club.

We'll have Kelly Francois allegedly along in time as well.

Maryland show. And I think even if it wasn't, I

would have to open with this and and good evening Dan.

But we lost frankly a great Marylander this week.

And his name is Pete Medhurst and voice of many things, Navy

athletics, voice of hardest racing in Maryland of many, many

things. And Pete was one of those guys.

For those of us who are in radio and, and and do broadcasting,

anything like that, we always looked at and we go, how the

hell does that guy do everything like that?

How does he all do it at that high of a level all the time,

whether it was calling games that into the checkerboard call

that he always had for Navy football, calling those lacrosse

games, doing everything else. And then he'd show up on a

Preakness Saturday and boom, he knew the card up and down and he

could just walk through it all with you.

And I'm gonna key on this and I'm working on this and these

things. And it occurred to me I only

spend about an hour a year with Pete Medhurst at those shows,

Dan. But what a it was a total gift.

One of those things where I I just assumed I'd get to do it

for the next decade or whatever it was.

And then you know how it is. I mean, just if people don't

know the story, Navy played Notre Dame.

Pete wasn't feeling well, went to the doctor.

They discovered some some tumors around his brain and and he

passed away on Monday. But just one of those guys, Dan,

I think of when I think of Maryland, Pete's just one of

those guys that I think of. No, it's a huge loss not only to

the local media here in the Mid-Atlantic region, but of

course to the entire sporting world.

When you aspire to be in media, as you mentioned, you want to be

like Pete Medhurst to his extremely, extremely talented in

everything he did, but was also a very, very nice guy and always

had a smile and a handshake ready for you when you went up

and talked to him. He, as you said, he was always

prepared seemingly for just about every sport you wanted to

discuss, whether it be horse racing or lacrosse.

It's a it's a terrible, terrible loss.

Yeah, it's really difficult. One for me got from, you know,

notice from our guy Scott Wyckoff, who's been on this show

before. Certainly we'll see.

Scott Scott was his Co host on all those shows for sure at

WBAL. Did the, you know, did all the

studio work for for the Navy network as well.

So I just wanted to acknowledge Pete's passing because he's just

one of those guys. Like I said, that when you do

what I'm very lucky to get to do, you look at a guy like Pete

and you think, how in the heck does he do all of it?

How does he really do? And he was, he was just one of

those guys always prepared, always do his stuff.

And I'll, I'll miss him very, very much.

But Cali Francois is here too. So we'll add her in here.

There she is. Hey, Cali.

And yeah, right. A little Maryland Jockey Club on

a, on a Thursday as we get ready for the for the spectacular bid.

And of course, the extra heat sticks this weekend at Laurel

Park. How has the weather been there?

Because I, I got to tell you, my kids walked out to go to school

this morning. It was 24°.

And my son said, wow, it's warm out.

So it's in that kind of cold here.

What are you dealing with Cali? We're we're at that similar go,

I mean. Just taking it.

It was really cold on Monday. They did cancel training

yesterday and then I so we have a group text going and then

unfortunately some of the pipes burst in the grounds yesterday.

Of course, no stalls or horses were affected.

It was all tack rooms and offices.

But yeah, real sense of community when it gets to the

times like these. So yeah, they got back to

training this morning and we'll be back in action here.

But as you said, I'm just looking at it right now, the

lows that we have coming up are 18 degrees, 15 and 26°

throughout the weekend. So when we hit 24, we will also

be, well, we're at 27 right now. And it's it's, it's hurting,

it's hitting me a little bit. But again, I'm the Wisconsin.

'S out of me, so I'm not. Holding it.

But we're we're endearing. We're definitely endearing it.

During it a little bit there in the Laurel area.

We do have some race replays to look at this week as we are in a

three-year old season. If you are new to our series

here, this is the Road to Pimlico.

We are trying to determine who will be in the starting gate for

the Preakness and for the Black Eyed Susan with this series of

races. Of course we'd love to joke on

the show. Deputed testimony, of course,

the last Preakness winner to come out of the Federico Tessio

in 1983. We are hoping to break that

streak this year and maybe that horse is running in the

spectacular bit on Saturday. We will find out where we go.

Down to the fairgrounds where Brad Cox, trainee in Disco time,

went ahead and won the Grade 3 Le Compte, the first of the 20

point races on the way to the Kentucky Derby.

And producer Zach is not there, so I'm going to go ahead and

pull this one up. You know what, Zach is not

there. We're going to have to kick down

the road. What did you like about his run,

Dan? I talked to Brad for my Friday

show tomorrow. We recorded yesterday and he

made a point about talk about how far back he was.

Yes, the late kick is great, but man, he doesn't think that

running style can be maintained long long term.

What do you think about Disco Time's performance down there in

the Le Compton? It was a really nice performance

and you mentioned it because he had to do something different.

He was slammed pretty hard coming out of the gate and this

is a horse and in his first two starts going one turn he was

right up close to the pace and in the lecomte he had to

overcome a lot, not only being banged around at the beginning

but also 2 terms for the first time and also a sloppy track.

That being said, it just seemed like it was the same lecomte

I've seen for the last 20 years. We see a lot of tired horses in

the stretch, a few horses running hard at the end, usually

on a sloppy track, and I'm not sure I trust any of it.

And it's very dark. Every time they run little

comps, it's very dark out for whatever reason.

Callie, were you impressed by the late kick for disco time

there? Frankly, he looked a little like

he looked a little like Sierra Leone last year.

The Risen star, frankly. I think it's early to make that

kind of comparison being a huge Sierra Leone fan.

But at the same time, when you're talking about a field

like that in a three-year old who can amass that kind of

professionalism over adversity early on, you it's you

definitely have to take some real weight to it as far when

you're talking long term on the way to the Derby trail.

So pretty cut and dry there wasn't, you know, the way it's a

horse that's just really on on task.

And that's something great to see early on.

Again, he's has everything going for him, doesn't he?

Louise, 3 for three. He's got the connections, he's

got the pedigree, he's passed every test.

But there were a lot of good 3 year olds on that card at the

Fairgrounds on Saturday. And Kenny Mcpeek unveiled one

earlier on in the car that actually ran faster going a mile

and a 16th than the Lecomte, and that was Hypna Susan into

mischief out of a Grade 1 stakes, winning a damn, winning

a debut, going 2 terms. Now he's a little bit behind

these others in terms of experience, but he might be a

horse to watch down the road. Wide trip helped him out, you

know, at the at the tail at that last on the last turn.

And I will say this is just and I know in retrospect, it always

seems like it's a very when we get to Derby time.

It seems like, you know, no time has gone by in between the time

we're talking now and the time we get to Derby, but we we do

have a while. So I like that you kind of cue

this one underneath because you need to just look for it.

It's it's always the first time on the two turns that I that's

that you pointed out that I think is really important to

see. It's not going to take this, you

know, it's not going to take some of these horses 233 times

to get the idea going two turns and to see that to see that one

show of two turns for the first time.

Yeah, that was the well spotted Dan.

We also saw Admiral Dennis come back in Allowance Company on

Monday at the Fairgrounds as well.

Brad indicated that he will be moving back into stakes company,

try to qualify for the Derby trail coming out of that run as

well. On the Oak side of things, did

have two races running away. 1 the Busanda for Wesley Ward

there up at Aqueduct. Dan, I'll go to you first here.

What did you like about her run there?

I like that she continues to improve and you can tell that

Wesley has always thought of her as A2 turn horse.

When you think Wesley Ward and you think 2 year olds, you think

speed and you think from 4 1/2 to six furlongs.

Not so the case with this one. He had to debut her on the turf

because there really aren't a lot of early 2 turn 2 year old

races put her on the turf for a couple.

She's a dirt filly. She's looked good in both stars.

But I do want to caution everybody.

She was very impressive winning the Busanda, but that was a very

speed favoring track at Aqueduct.

It was a race where they ran 123 all the way around.

There was no closing going on. I wonder how good that race was

and she might have been flattered by the track.

The waters get deeper next time. Kelly, similar opinion.

Honestly, spot on. You have to take them.

You just kind of have to take a little bit of assessment with,

you know what you're going. With I think especially here's

the thing, personally for me, indeed, the horses that just go

to the lead bore bore me entirely.

But that's not to take anything away from the performance.

But at the same time, we haven't, you know, just looking

back at this one, this one hasn't had too much, hasn't had

too much. Challenge in her career on the

front end. She's had it pretty easy.

She's going to be getting, it's kind of like when you get when

you get somebody who's kind of spoiled out of position, then

you throw them in the sharks, they they're either going to

sink or swim. And so one to watch for next

time and just kind of sit back and see what happens.

Seen some interesting names on the Oaks and Derby trail between

Owen Hardy and a Little. A little reminder that Wesley

Ward is training 3 year olds as well, not just two year olds.

Simply joking. Wins the silver bullet day at

Fairgrounds for trainer Wit Beckman.

Obviously. Anna Marie back breezing for the

first time since his run into Traverse as well for for trainer

Wit Beckman. I thought she looked really good

in this one. Dan coming out of that debut win

in a Sprint stakes of all things.

She goes ahead, gets the lead, keeps the lead, does the two

turn thing no problem. In some ways she was one of the

more impressive 3 year olds of the entire weekend and I think

that's saying a lot considering there were some very talented

ones. But you hit the nail right on

the head Wit obviously like this well bred Philly.

The debut were in a stakes race going short.

She won that race from off the pace.

She showed her usual her expected stretch out speed going

two turns in the silver bullet day and I thought those were at

least legitimate fractions in the internals.

She went quick the first quarter, she maintained that the

second quarter and she basically ran those horses off of their

feet. Now, I thought she was getting a

little bit tired and green in the stretch.

That's something to keep an eye on, but it was a tiring, sealed,

sloppy track. I'm curious to see how this one

continues to mature. I do have some questions how far

she wants to go, but I was fairly impressed with what I saw

a second time out. A real mix of races, frankly,

Cali for the for the three-year old fillies of the spring

between A1 turn, Acorn and all those kinds of things as well.

But do you think she could be a Kentucky Oaks kind of horse?

Here, I think that you know I'm going to.

Build off a little bit of what Dan said and.

First of all, she's got some back class, you know, where I

could see Dan's kind of, you know, back reading, excuse me,

where the Dan's kind of questioning, you know, as far as

a Max out distance. She you know, when you're

talking Oaks distance, she on the bottom side going back to

her grand. I want to say damn, grand damn,

at least to be questionable going back to that distance.

But it's so funny because I damn alluded to that first time where

the green she showed the greenness and I thought when she

got to the top of the stretch and was wit and just got in

front in her first win, I thought she was kind of hanging

around. I thought she just kind of

wanted to stay within her company.

So I think she got lucky getting on the front end and I know the

connections are, you know, really highly touting on her at

this. I just think I I got proved

wrong going to two turns for the first time because she did once

she there there wasn't in in the sense of when you watch her.

There was the first time I saw her when I knew I saw, you know,

I just have, I said to myself, I know what these connections are

going to be doing next time. Going to the two turns, probably

a mistake. It may be too much for this one,

but you see her at the top of the stretch and she does it

mentally just switches. On SO, I really thought she

proved me wrong in that sense as well.

And then I actually I saw Andy. Bianco on Twitter talking with

Wit about just the greenness of her and apparently it's the

screens she looks at their They have those band, the electric

banners near the what? Near the wire and apparent.

And he just said she was she was that's what she was looking at

and she was even looking at the screens in the paddock going

around there. So that's, yeah.

So that's where that's where if you're in a field, that's if she

ends up in the Oaks, if you're in a big field like the Oaks,

Oaks, just take her to the outside, let the rest of these

inside horses near that electric.

You know near that. Electrical.

Board so that's. Kind of how you play it.

But yeah, going to be interesting to see what goes on.

And again, we're we're in late January.

I know time is going to be so short, but at the same time,

there's plenty of time getting into the Oaks for this year.

I, I, I, I'm of the opinion at least and I, I'd love to hear

from the two of you, a guy like Whit Beckman, younger guy, you

know, doesn't have these, you know, doesn't have a, a classic

win, these sorts of things. Qualifying Otto Marie for the

Derby last year makes us think of her as more of a contender

this year for the Oaks. Yes, Dan.

Well. I would think so.

Whit Beckman was a very good trainer and he's had a great

mentors throughout his career. But getting Honor Marie to the

Derby and then managing that horse pretty well to the pretty

much top of that horse's abilities, he got Honor Marie to

do his absolute best in a lot of those races.

I think it shows that he can be a force if you give him a good

horse. And again, I like that he showed

the conference to debut this horse in a stake.

He knew what he had and he was proven correct.

We've seen trainers at times overreach with first time

starters that they love. They run them in stakes races.

It doesn't work out and sometimes it really gives them a

beating mentally where it takes them four or five races to

finally get back that confidence level.

Not so with this source. He knows how to manage a horse's

talent, and he knows where to place them in the right spot.

I thought the exact same thing because I saw that first one and

I'm like, oh, I mean, because you know, he's had such these

prolific assistant positions. And then once you get into the

spotlight of your own, it's kind of like, oh, is this guy going

to be, you know, is he going to go for it and not not be Because

you know, when you get on, you know, you get that early Derby

trail success and you want to continue it.

It's kind of like our, are you doing this because of, you know,

reason A or reason B? And so I was just again, I was

very much, I was really curious to see how she was going.

But it it kind of it proved to there's a so it shows it to me.

It shows that because he was able to do it and clock it with

these Phillies, it just kind of really further accentuates the

fact that you brought up Dan, that he was able to get as much

as he could out of, you know, his Derby contender.

And I, I believe the horse is coming back.

Yeah. That just kind of adds to it and

it makes it makes you have a little.

You know, bit of faith and the and the young gun like that so.

The Derby and Oaks trails both head to Oaklawn Park, Hot

Springs, AR, of course the Martha Washington, a 20 point

race on the Oaks trail, and of course the Southwest Sticks will

see the match up of Gaming and Patch Adams.

How about that, Dandy? Do you think one of those two is

the probable winner here? Is there a longer shot maybe

you've seen? One of those two is the probable

winner. I'm not really willing to give

up on gaming just yet. I know that some folks might be

down on him, but he's trained by a guy who knows how to win some

races at Oaklawn Park, and something tells me that he's not

here just for the scenery. I have a feeling that game is

going to run very well. The other horse is very nice as

well, but I think gaming's experience, it might see him

through here at Oaklawn. Agreed.

I I really don't have much to add to that.

I just think that when you get horses like that, you just see

it it when you get to this kind of stage with them, It's amazing

how little of experience can be so much.

Of course, back with the winner of last year's Arkansas Derby,

not Mystic Dan. How about that?

So they, of course, plenty of success there.

Of course, American Pharaoh running through the Arkansas

Derby on his way to a Triple Crown ten years ago.

How about that, y'all? It's been a decade.

Feeling good. Feeling good by yourself.

How about that? All right.

Everybody feels old. Now so.

We move in to our handicapping part of the show.

We are presented by Amwager for all of our Road to Pimlico

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We'll be doing our annual seminar as well as Jimmy Seafood

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You need am wager or right a reminder about what the road to

Pimlico looks like. All the races are going to be

held at Laurel Park halfway essentially between Baltimore

and Washington DC. We talked about the Heft and Gin

Talking Stakes last time we got together on this show.

The spectacular bid and extra heater this weekend at 7:00 and

6:00 furlongs next month will run on the 22nd of We'll do the

show then at least they'll run on the 22nd next month.

Excuse me in the miracle wooded wide country.

The boys will stretch out to a mile.

The girls will run at 7 furlongs and we'll go longer from there.

The first race we're going to look at is a maiden claim.

It is race 6 on the card there. It starts the late pick five and

if you are playing in Maryland, you're not used to the scene,

12% take out on those pick fives, very, very playable.

And we hit it last time that we did the show, a 4535 maiden

claimer for three-year olds to open the card.

And Dan, I always ask you, for the people that might not have

played a ton in Maryland before, at what level is a 45 $1000

maiden claimer? Because you know, if you're at

Churchill, the highest level is $150,000.

This isn't real life here, right?

What level is 45 on the maiden claimer?

Is that the highest level of maiden claimer?

Well, it's basically the highest level and you have to be careful

when you read this condition because it's 45 to 36 for opens.

But if you're a Maryland bred, you can waive the maiden price

and you're not eligible to be claimed.

So there are some good maiden special weight quality horses in

this waiver maiden claiming race.

And I think we've got a few in here.

I'm curious. I will defer to Callie though I

want I'm curious to see who she likes first.

I mean, I here's the thing, I'm going off of my overnight notes

so I haven't even looked at the morning lines, but I feel like

Creed's vision is going to be your favorite.

Make a note. So when you're looking at these

races for Saturday, always look, I deferred.

You have to defer. Nola Boss, who ran in that field

last time out is going to be running on that Friday, on

Friday, tomorrow. So the last race, you know,

coming into the paddock show for that last race on this one, I

said that they won't try and force the issue out of the gate

and they didn't. Even though Sheldon was properly

tied on, he sat super chilly behind horses started to make

some move between. Horses and around the turn.

Took a while to just break off from the one that was putting

pressure on him the entire time. Little persnickety this one when

he's getting handled down the stretch, so it's you have to.

He's he's a funny, he's a little bit of a funny one to ride.

Not too funny though, but he's getting the hang of it.

He was hesitant to move away from the other horse.

So that's why these blinkers are on.

But with that being said, I just I was, I had the horse picked

last time out. I was pleased with how it went.

I ultimately go. So the way I the direction I go

is I go Creed's vision and then underneath Daring venture with

Percy. Underneath and then a cumicle.

To round out my top 4 selections that you'll likely see for

Saturday's show. There you go, 3 to one on

Creed's Vision, 5:00 to 2:00 on during Venture, her top 2.

But you do get 8 to one on Percy Dan.

Did you land on any of the long shots in this field?

I think Percy has a chance in here.

I didn't like that he didn't change leads in the stretch last

time out, but he's another horse that's just still learning the

game and again, I think he might get the right race flow in here.

Looking at a horse that might be a potential price.

Smuggler's Goal draws a tough post post position 11 Jamie

Rodriguez up for Cal Lynch. This is a horse I've been

following since his start. 2 races back where he got floated

6 wide turning for home, and he made-up some decent late ground

that day. Now last time out he broke

really well, but then two strides out of the gate he got

bumped a little bit wound up in between horses down on the rail

in the stretch. I just thought it was a

stressful trip for a relatively inexperienced horse.

Now he's outside, might get some clean air.

A lot of these horses getting Lasix for the first time and I

think if Smugglers Gold get some pace, he has a chance at a

price. I'm going to use SIM and I'm

going to use Daring Venture for Brittany Russell gelding Lasix.

Very tough trip, two starts back.

Just stumbled terribly at the start, had to rush up and that

got him beaten. Well, it was a little bit

disappointing last time out as the favorite he was in against a

pretty promising 3 year old from the Robbie Bales barn.

I just have a feeling we're going to see a much better

beginning from Daring Venture this time.

I'm going to key in on those two.

Louis, where are you going? I, I like the two favorites in

this one to start the sequence. I I hate that, but it's just how

it goes. Any trouble that I need to know

about that that Sheldon's riding for Morley here and that

Carrasco's riding for Britney, Is that something I need to know

about? Is there something going on?

No. Victor's been riding this one

since. No, Yeah, no, no, no, Victor,

Britney's gonna. Britney's gonna.

If the jock is good, doing a good job, Britney's not gonna

take it off, take him off. And I think Victor, Victor and

Britney have been trying to kind of team up with horses just kind

of on the outskirts for a win. So this could potentially be it.

And especially for Miss Charles Hillwood, stable jockey owner

combination is very strong. They're good history there.

So I could that's it's more of that than anything.

If I was looking at a longer shot, if I get heavy on Toledo

at six to one on Farouk, a second time starter, a horse

that's at least been in the starting gate has at least

gotten on the track, I think that's where I would be looking.

If I'm trying to get value individual race to race, I'd

probably look at Farouk in this spot.

Don't love the second time start numbers out of the boss barn and

those kinds of things, but I do love a second time starter sort

of generally speaking, and I do trust Toledo to give that horse

a fair shot as well. The late pick 4 does start with

race seven. Race 7 here is an allowance

optional claimer. Easy 3 for me to say 3 year olds

essentially for non 2 lifers here a mile on the dirt.

It is A1 turn mile there at Laurel Park, $49,000 in the

Kitty here, 62 grand if you want to get in on a horse in this

race there Dan. But Kelly, just so you know, our

favorite here is Roland Jesse, the one at 5:00 to 2:00.

Pay Billy the three to one second favorite and the three

seven to two the third favorite. Is this lazy morning line making

Dan just going 123 or do you think they got it right?

I don't think I was that lazy when I made the line for this

race to be perfectly honest with you.

I think it's a pretty competitive field and I think

that that that young man got the three favorites correctly and

I'll pick the third choice of there.

I think All the hard Ways is one of the two multiple race winners

in this field and although he is stepping up out of an open

claiming race last time like what he did that day sort of

made a prolonged 3 wide move on the turn and with the long

stretch of the one mile run at Laurel you go all the way down

to the second wire. You could have made the argument

that maybe the source inherited the lead a little bit too early,

but he was pretty game to keep on trucking through the wire.

He's getting Lasik's for the first time for Jerry Robb.

I do like his tactical speed. A capability's last race.

The buyer's speed figure really speaks for itself.

He just exploded out of nowhere. Now I don't know whether it was

turning back to six furlongs what got him over the hump, but

when you look at Pay Billy, he's a big good looking son of

improbable. I would think a mile is within

his scope from a pedigree and body type standpoint in the

grinding style he utilized last time out makes me think he can

at least get a mile. Maybe he just is finally

reaching his potential and roll on Jesse.

I was talking to Kenny Cox the other day.

He said the source was the slowest horse in the barn when

he was a 2 year old, and he's so far surprised just about

everybody because all three of his dirt starts are good.

He needs pace. He does not have any kind of

early speed, but I'd probably fool around with those three to

kick off the pick 4 second leg of the value pick 5.

I do the same thing. I go with pay Billy on top and

then after with after. That all the hard.

Ways and roll on Jesse I just I love the fact that.

This one you know last time. Out, you know, did he's gotten

to this point kind of the hard way in a sense.

Had to push through early in between horses getting asked

early at the 3/8. Finally got into the stride of

the last 16th of a mile. So visually I just see it

working out really well today. The Gallup out was very forward.

So that's basically what I'm going to go be going off of that

to add anything to all the hard ways I agree with everything Dan

says. Didn't really ask until the last

eighth of a mile. Drifted a little bit from the

stick just due to kind of greenness, but didn't.

Easy. I do think just with the

aggressiveness that we might see out of pay Billy for this effort

might be challenged in that and that's where.

I come up with Roland Jesse, you know he Angel.

Cruz rode the. Hide off of this one on the

backside where you didn't really.

It's a place that you're not really going to see it, but.

The jock stood up. Early, you know was I think was

going to be second anyway, but I think could really benefit from

the, you know, stretching out to the second wire here today.

I like a horse that's shortening up in distance in here, going

from two turns in a mile and a 16th.

Cutting back gets Lasix for the first time I think.

A lot to like here. Well, hopefully Victor Carrasco

can get that second win of 2025 for me here.

So I'll lean on the five Bjorn here.

Don't love the layoff numbers out of the McMahon barn, but

I'll take a shot with that horse at 5:00 to 1:00.

I think I'll get every bit of that price by the time we get to

Saturday. And now it is time for the Black

Eyed Susan version of the day. The the running of the extra

heat steak. 6 furlongs on the dirt here. 3 year old Phillies

in here, $100,000 in the Kitty for this one and Kelly a fun a

fun little field here. We do see the return of my charm

in this one who ran a good second in the gin talking at 7

furlongs. We shortened back up to six

furlongs here for this one. Who did you like in this one?

You know, at first glance of the field I loved Onyx 10, but I do

go with your favorite. In my charm on a top.

With I go my charm chicken looking and then and then I go

with Onyx 10 underneath with Atlantis Queen just because of

an interesting stat. Gary Capilano with the blinkers

on 4 for 9 as of lately. So you just kind of want to, if

you're looking for a kind of a horse to really, you know,

miraculously jump up, it's going to be the number 4.

But my charm luster too impressive.

Caprice, the cow Lynch runner who won her third stakes in a

row, winning six out of seven races.

Just able. I'm looking at the fact that

this one is able to transfer the money to the fast very, very

well. I loved how this one traveled on

the mud but went to the rail outside of that pretty textbook.

But to add to that, going ahead to the #7 chicken like an Ollie

Figgins JB in Toledo with the blinkers on, lost out to Cruz

Ramirez. Who is 1/2 to the?

Cup Sprint winner and Derby trail for Secret Circle when he

was, you know, in his year on the Derby trail.

So you just kind of have to take this again.

This one is going to be challenged, but I do.

I I tend to. Gravitate towards some Ollie

Figgins horses sometimes Onyx 10 Gary Capuano super wide didn't

get covered at all on the backside and just was when they

get into that, you know, mental motion on the backside.

By the time they get to those last few strides where it makes

a difference near the rail, their brain is kaput.

So sometimes when they relax they kind of check out a little

bit and nearly got the win but just got kind of edged out.

So looking the sentimental pick would be Onyx 10 but I've got to

go with my charm. How about you, Dan?

Who'd you land on here? I do respect my charm.

I'm not sure she has such an edge on paper that I want to

play her at a really short price in here, especially cutting back

to six with her running style. She doesn't have a lot of speed

to begin with. And when I talked to Brittany

earlier this week, she said, look, this horse is probably

going to get outrun in the early portion of this race.

And I think that's always a concern with three-year old

Phillies going 6 for a long time.

You're going to have to worry about pace.

You're going to have to worry about Tripp.

I thought you got a good set up last time out.

She ran very well. Kelly talked about Caprice, that

Philly is very, very good and My Charm did her best to finish

second. There are no caprices in here.

If My Charm runs a race, she's a contender, but I'm not sure

again that she is just a complete stand out based on what

we've seen on the track. The most interesting horse in

the race is Wisconsin Girl on the Outside and I talked to Paul

Mcinty earlier in the week and he said that this horse is sort

of a game time decision. We've already seen her run twice

this this year, which is pretty amazing.

They ran her on synthetic turfway I think on New Year's

Day. She didn't really care for that

to pita surface. And then they ran her against

the boys last time out at Oaklawn where she was actually

in with a look turning into the stretch after chasing a fast

pace. I just think a really good trip

is coming from the outside post. If she breaks here, she can sit

right off the speed of the four Atlantis queen and maybe make a

run at it. And maybe because these

connections aren't so well known and Maryland, she'll be a decent

price. But she's a game time decision.

If Wisconsin and Gal goes, I'm going to use her on extent.

Turning back in distance is going to help her.

She was really keyed up and eager, going two turns for the

first time, pulling and rank in the early stages.

Gary was looking forward to stretching her out.

When you look at her and you look at her pedigree, you can

understand why. But I think for this race, he's

happy turning her back and trying to make one run from off

of it. Onyx 10 O for four lifetime at

Laurel Park O for three at the distance, but we'll get another

chance here. My charm never worse than second

in three runs at Laurel Park. I got to be honest, I'm I'm

fascinated by not too late. I don't know if this horse can

get back to that form that we saw in September.

If this is a horse, frankly that just kind of peaked out as a 2

year old and isn't going to be great as a three-year old.

I simply don't know. But we're getting away from that

sloppy track. I thought she ran just fine in

the in the smart Halo before that.

So I think she's an interesting one, especially at 6:00 to 1:00

there coming out of the six hole as well.

The Spectacular Bid Stakes will be a race nine start.

The late double there, 7 furlongs on the dirt.

This is for three-year olds and this does show this is the next

race on the road to the Preakness.

And so these horses will be trying to run later on in the

Tessio Stakes ahead of that third Saturday in May Sacred

Thunder comes in at 5:00 to 2:00 in the one hole, Dan, but 2 to

one on Tony Eclipse. What do we like about Tony

Eclipse? We like what Tony Eclipse has

done so far on the racetrack. He's run nothing but fast,

including his most recent start where he just was showing big

speed from the start. And that restricted Maryland

Juvenile. And Brittany is stunned that the

Source has this kind of speed. He debuted.

She debuted. The source called Two Turns on

the turf has run into nothing but route races leading up to

the Maryland juvenile last time out.

He thought she thought he was a galloping type that wasn't going

to show this kind of speed. Well, lo and behold, even

Brittany Russell can be fooled. Tony Eclipse says big speed is

likely going to show big speed in this race.

I do think that if Sacred Thunder gets a trip he can turn

the tables though. I know Gary is very disappointed

about drawing the rail again. He felt it hurt the source when

he was in the Maryland Juvenile against Tony Eclipse.

He wound up last on the rail turning for home and to swing

wide and really just couldn't Sprint home against Tony Eclipse

that day. In the heft last time out he ran

into a very good 2 year old named One Man Team a horse.

I think we're going to be hearing a lot from from the

Brittany Russell barn. Sacred Thunder's gonna have to

deal with the rail again, and he doesn't have a lot of speed, but

I think there might be some pace and maybe this time he kicks him

down in the lane. Yeah, his last run, no one

intended was just falling down a hill.

Sorry. I just yeah, sentiments there

with that one on the one. He did win the the the Lewis, of

course, back at the beginning of November there at Laurel.

Do you think he can get off the rail?

Do you think he can run a good race here?

I mean, go ahead. I I'm just saying I'm hoping so

because I'm picking him. How about for you, Kelly?

I just I, I. Think it's going to be tough.

I mean, what's great is that this guy just keeps trying.

So I mean, like I said, it was it, it kind of it last effort

had the energy of just kind of like falling down the hill a

little bit and. You just have to he had to

painstaking painstakingly pick through the rest of the field to

just to try and find a spot for some clearance and then kind of

finally got it too little too late.

So with that being said, you've got Toledo on.

That's something that Toledo does do well.

He can't. He tends to get lucky with these

spots on the racetrack that just kind of appear to him.

So I will say if because I'm again, I'm reading off the

overnight. I don't know if Toledo's still

named on. But if he is, that's kind of a

little bit of a little bit of luck, a racing look that could

go, you know, in a positive direction for Sacred Thunder.

But I do believe that not only Tony Eclipse on the outside is

going to be a bother, but I think just due to the way that

the race shapes up, I do have scheduling dude on top just

because you're, we just talked about the speed of Tony Eclipse.

But honestly, I think flashing dude if, if he moves forward off

of that effort. I was very impressed with what I

saw last time out coming out of the gate in those first 5 to 8

jumps that I I think that this guy is going to have the fastest

gate speed in this race. Just he had to fight for the

lead in the beginning of the race in between three horses.

Just fighting for it in it. When you watched him, it didn't

take too much out of him on a physical level.

He kind of cruised. He worked hard for it, but then

he cruised the rest of the time where when you're talking about

Tony Eclipse last time he had, he made easy work of the field

last time out. But it's going to be a bit of a

new dynamic because the 9 on the outside might outbreak this one.

And it took Toledo a little bit of work to get up there.

And I think I think he was supposed to beat the field by

how much he won by. So I'm I think he might be have

an unexpected new challenger on the outside.

I do think the gate speed on scheduling dude is will be

something to really really consider here.

Scheduling dude. Of course a New York bread has

been running in many of the New York designated races there at

Aqueduct before that of course, tried Saratoga for maiden break

there. And am I the only one?

And maybe it's just we're doing a Maryland show, don't mention a

crab daddy. We're not doing that.

Like we're not going to take the the Pennsylvania nursery.

We're not doing this. We're not, we're not, we're not

doing this or we're not. We're not playing crab daddy.

We're not. We're not.

You can the horses What? A stakes race?

What? Are we doing?

I don't know about that. So I don't think it's.

I don't think he's passed enough, but it's OK, yeah.

Yeah, he's don't you know, just don't necessarily be to fool

from that from kind of that running effort he had to really

work there and it wasn't easy. So in a field like that it and

of course you know this ones coming off.

Of a sloppy track as well. So coming back to that fast

track, we're at 30th of December.

So how many days is that in between races?

And this is, you know, this is not something out of reach for

this one. I just feel like this I just for

some reason, I see this horse potentially bouncing out of that

effort last time out. That's my only thing.

No, that's possible. I think we could bounce, but he

is getting blinkers on. I talked to Linda Albert, he

said the source just, she said the source just seemed to lose

focus a little bit on the backstretch last time out over

that sloppy track. She's not exactly sure how this

source wants to run yet because she, the horse has shown the

ability to be close to the pace. Kind of loses interest at times

when you see it him run. I just have a feeling that this

horse is a little bit better than he shows.

But I'm like Cali, a little bit concerned that this horse might

regress a bit off that last start a pretty hard race.

But a good include for saying exacto trifecta play.

Absolutely. Yeah, I think this horse just

might need and again, I think it's also just a, it's a timing

thing. I think to build off of what Dan

said it we could potentially see some nice things out of this,

you know, out of the Linda Albert trainee, which she does

do very well. With types like these, it just

may take a race or two to get there.

I'm going to go ahead and be boring and pick Tony Eclipse.

Dan, go ahead with your spectacular bid winner.

I believe you told us already. Yeah, I'm going with Sacred

Thunder. I like him down towards the

inside and here. It'll be interesting to see if

Dutrow wins 2 spectacular bids in a row.

He won it last year with a New York invader.

Ali's going to go from back-to-back with Dutrow.

That horse does have good speed. It's really an interesting race.

I'm not sure if it has freakness implications.

These horses look like sprinters right now, but I do think it's a

pretty good betting race if it stays intact.

Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah. Hey, Tony Eclipse is is not this

time that we've seen those horses do everything.

His progeny have done a little bit of everything.

So kind of the new candy ride, if you will.

So never know who might end up where.

But the car does close with race 10.

It is a 12/5 claimer. It is a mile and a 16th on the

dirt. We're actually going to use the

whole track for this one. Four and up in this case,

$22,000 in the Kitty here. Kelly, we'll go to you first on

the on the last race here. Tell us why a horse named Louis

is going to win this one. I don't think a horse named

Louis is going to win this because I think Earl of Dassel

is going to be winning this. So the lowest, I mean it's the

lowest level we've seen this one AT.

And you know, we've seen this horse.

At a multitude of distances and I just I like this one best for

him. Just the overall vibe from the

last two races. Just simply not close enough.

So this just gives him an opportunity to just kind of get

up there. Where do I have this Louis horse

last second Louis, Where do I have him?

Oh, I have him in second but. So yeah.

Let's not get into that. Too busy kind of battling a

charge a challenger the entire way around there.

And the winner came up the rail and was a little bit too late

for this guy to kind of challenge back.

I think two turns is the big key here.

You just have to take a, you know, take a look at kind of

what's when you're taking a look at what's going on.

I get, I get the inside speed, I get that angle completely and

not one paste, but it's either a closer or a front runner.

There's kind of no in between. It's just that I haven't seen

enough consistency in that way. So that's the only reason that

I'm kind of just holding back a little bit on this one.

All right, fair enough. Dan, who'd you land on in our 12

five claimer to close card? Well, I have to be honest, too.

I do think last second Louis has a chance in here, Will.

But when you look at that record of one for 26, one for 28,

pardon me, you start thinking. He obviously is a fan of the

horse racing happy hour last second.

Louis, though, has speed in the rail and is likely going to show

it under Tori Alba. I think he's in better form than

it seems. I mean come on, he's hit the

board and five of his last six starts and he was pressing an

odds on favorite last time out before tiring.

He did get beat by a million to one shot, which has been the

story of this horse's life. He's not the most trustworthy

horse in the world. The other half of the Diane

Marici uncoupled entry, Papa Funny, the three I think is

slowly getting better as a lot more upside.

And maybe just the dumbbell morning line maker lines the

dingo HO baby a little bit too high because this source is

taking an unbelievable class drop for Brittany Russell and he

showed a little bit of ability early in his career.

Maybe he just found the right spot.

Man, yeah this is a tough one, but I will take a full field of

a nice field of eight to close the pick 5 any day and so good

luck with all of those wagers. I try to always ask this as

well, what is the horse we would have to beat in the pick 5 to

maximize the profits? Is it Tony Eclipse this weekend,

Dan? No, I think it's my charm.

I think a lot of folks are jumping on my charm in the

Philly race, and I'm not sure. Again, she has such an edge over

this field that she absolutely has to win.

If you want to eliminate one favorite, you might want to try

to eliminate her. I'm a little bit too scared to

eliminate Tony Eclipse based on the figures that the source has

run and the fact that he has shown the ability at this

distance. For me it would be my charm.

OK, how would you? Tell the opposite.

I would take off Tony Eclipse. That's what I would try and

beat, but that's because I have scheduling dude on top so.

No, I understand. I, I'm talking about just

maximizing that pick five, you know, payout, that kind of

thing. Frankly, if you could beat both

of them, of course, I mean, that's a different conversation.

But yes, you know who's trying to pick one?

We're not trying to beat all of the very best horses in these

races. Well, he's Dan Illman.

What else is going on in Maryland, Dan?

Now that now that you're, you're a hotel man, you know you're,

you know you're whatever else you are.

Dan, I'm not going. To I'm not going to be Michael,

that's Conrad Hilton here at Maryland right now.

And no, no, there's a lot going on.

Listen, we're really throwing in a we're throwing a lot at the

fans. And again, the value Pick 5

wager is one of the best bets in the game.

People are always talking about take out.

You're getting a 12% take out on a Pick 5 wager.

It's a $0.50 minimum bet. And we've got big fields.

And this weekend we've got big fields.

You look at Saturday's card, 10 races, 94 horses, Sunday big

fields, 10 races. You do some great betting

opportunities here and you've got some nice steaks horses as

well. Go to laurelparkdrf.com.

I remember that place. laurelpark.com/picks.

We've got a great new handicapping guide up.

We've got picks from the whole team, including Cali and myself.

We've got full cart analysis. We've got horses to watch, we've

got trainer stats. We've got bias information for

the last two months and we're going to be adding a lot more,

lots more graphics, lots of new. Look here at the Maryland Jockey

Club at Laurel Park. I'm excited about it.

It's like they hired someone who likes horse racing.

How about that, do you think, Kelly?

It looks pretty good. No, I with the plans that Dan

has, not only with the way we kind of launched off this 2025,

but with the plans that we have going forward in the future,

we're going to be having so much content for the fans.

I'm Dan and I are fully excited to give you that kind of once we

get into the kind of, you know, once we get into second gear

here, things are going to we're going to crank things up a

little bit. Sure, going to be fun and I

can't wait to provide all of that for you guys.

We are 43 minutes into this episode and I have not mentioned

this yet, but the Horse Racing Happy Hour will be both at the

Preakness. We're going to make it for

Maryland Million Day this year. How about that?

So we're going to be out there for both of them hanging out

with all of our friends there in Maryland.

We're going to have a great. Time we're only $5 and three

$12.00 parking. I heard parking for me was

actually 100, but hey, I'll take the 12th.

That sounds a lot better. There you go.

Well, she's Cali. He's Dan.

They will join us in a month ahead of the two races next

month, which are the Miracle Wood and of course, the wide

country as well. No one named stakes races like

the state of Maryland. You understand me?

No one has the dinner party and the heft and the gin talking in

the same place. Deal with it.

All right? I'm Louis.

He's Dan. She's Cali.

I will let the two of them go, and I'll yell at producer Zach.

Thank you, too, for joining me. I'll see you next month.

Thank you. See you guys.

All right, Get him out of here. There we go.

I'm Lira Bow producer Zach. No camera at all.

How about that? I don't need him on camera

anymore. Kind of a weird looking dude.

I love Drake. Coming up on the sex.

I love you too. How about that?

So there you go. I love these freaking Maryland

shows. I really do.

I love our people, dude. It's gonna be amazing.

Yeah. We're going to have a lot of fun

this year hanging out with them. I don't think people understand

how active we're going to be this year at races, Really

active. We're going to be travelling a

lot this year, so it's going to be a lot of fun.

But we will be there for both Preakness and Maryland million.

Maryland million, of course, a couple weeks right before

they're ahead of the Breeders Cup.

We'll be doing that. We'll be doing really lucky,

Zach, actually the the claiming crowns back at Churchill.

So I don't have to travel for that.

I'll be covering that as well. So tons of stuff coming up this

year announcing our plans for the Derby trail as well next

week. So make sure you join us for

that. I mentioned it earlier on the

show. Trainer Brad Cox joins me

tomorrow night on the Kentucky Racing Spotlight.

You can catch that here at the Louisville Market on ESPN

681057. It'll be up on our podcast

platform sometime tomorrow night or Saturday morning and then

during Rabo and Co on ESPN 680 tomorrow morning, 10:40 AM

Eastern Time. I'll talk with our guy Brian

Nadeau down at Gulfstream Park ahead of the Pegasus on

Saturday. So we'll ask him about that.

Our our guest next week on this show will be John Lindo.

We'll look ahead to the stakes action at Santa Anita next week

and actually just got a text from him about the show, which

is awesome. So our guy Johnny Lindo will

jump on next week. We've got a bunch of good Johns

who work with this show, you understand me?

Johnny P got Johnny Lindo just a good show for John.

You understand me it's just a good one.

So there you go all right well, let's get out of here Zach.

Let's play some music and do all of the things again.

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