Risen Star 2025 | Joe Kristufek

We welcome in first time around Rabo and Co.

His name is Joe Christafeck. He'll be on the desk for the

simulcast tomorrow at Fairgrounds.

We'll be there today too. I say that, but we're talking to

him about tomorrow. Joey K man, good morning.

How are you? Dude, you were just playing old

school Curtis Blow, I mean. Let's go.

Yeah, I mean, I can. I probably rap every word to

that song. That was awesome.

There you go. Yeah, we opened with a

discussion of some some tournament seating talk because

Joe, we finally have two good basketball teams around here.

Yeah, I know. It's exciting.

I mean, when I first moved to Louisville, that's what they

told me. You got to pick a side.

I tried, man. But no, I'm a Chicago sports fan

right through and through, and I keep my loyalties there.

There you go. Well, Joe Christafek with us at

Joey Decay on all the socials and all those things down there.

Hey, you May, I heard you talking weather with producer

Zach. Before you jumped on today,

there was some concern about conditions tomorrow.

It looks like it's cleared up though, Yeah.

Yeah, I mean, we had tornado warnings here.

What was it Wednesday night? I thought we're going to be off

the turf for sure. And then we barely got any rain

at all. So it's like it's so random.

Sometimes the forecast is so bad that you know you're going to

get hit with something. So until we get like a day or

two out, I'm not overly concerned about the forecast.

But yeah, it looks good. Looks like it's going to be a

little bit windy on the warm side.

You know, we should be fast and firm and ready to go with, you

know, an amazing 14 race card. Not only the six stakes races,

but these undercard rates with the pedigrees, the sales prices,

the connections, you know, trying to get these younger

horses started to, you know, move forward into the spring and

summer campaigns. Super exciting card from top to

bottom. 12 noon, first post Central, 1:00 Eastern and you

want to get hide early. Don't miss the first several

races. Yeah, I mean, on top of it, as

you mentioned, I mean I think there's five turf races there as

well. The late sequence is all route

races, 5 full bore, you know, stakes races, which starts with

the stall memorial, of course, in race 10.

This is, you know, you've got an estimate of about 1,000,000

bucks in the Pick 5 down there. What's it like to just ramp

Saturday? Little rising *1,000,000 bucks

in the Pick 5. It's a cool expectation.

Yeah, the expectation was built off what we've done on it the

last couple years. And you know, we had some bad

weather luck when we had the Gun Runner Day card and then a La

Compte card where the races had to be taken off the grass and it

crushed us. Even on a normal Thursday when

the races are taken off the turf, it kind of takes a life

out of some of our cards. So to be on the turf with

quality races, not only the Stig's variety, but the

undercard, you know, being a good horse player is all about

taking advantage of opportunities.

And I don't know about you guys, but I'm ready to fire, yeah.

I'm ready to fire on this one as well in mind in the mine shaft

in race 11. It starts a late pick four there

for you guys Tomorrow we see the return of catching freedom and

and Joe, one of the themes of of this year for me is just how

much fun I think we're going to have with that older dirt male,

you know, category this year with the return of a catching

freedom. You know, we see a batten down

in this race as well when the Ohio Derby last year comes in as

a four year old and then kind of new shooters.

We're kind of figuring it out. Maybe weren't ready for the

Derby trail last year in a Hall of Fame, a Tuscan skies in this

race. We saw him up the track in the

Haskell yesterday before last year, excuse me, before a good

run in the discovery. Any feel on this mine shaft?

It feels kind of wide open. You said it well, I mean, Hall

of Fame was pretty much biting off more than he could chew last

year when, you know, he had the talent, but the maturity level

just wasn't there. And as Steve Asthma often does,

always willing to just regroup with a horse start over.

Got the win in the one term mile to Churchill, which is not his

best game, comes right back and wins the, you know, optional

claiming to other than and basically a public workout.

I think he's got a chance to be one of the best older horses in

the country this year here and I think this is the perfect race

to kind of give him a test against tougher horses.

He's going to have to prove some versatility.

There's other horses that want to be forward here.

The race could set up for Catching Freedom and we know

loves a long stretch, but what a fascinating race.

I think the winner will probably come from one of those two.

They're the two high profile names and the horses with the

best futures moving forward and different running style, so

it'll be fun. Hall of Fame, of course, a son

of Gun Runner, a $1.4 million purchase by the Connections

there. Of course, Gun Runner did his

best running at 4:00 and 5:00, hoping that his son isn't

terribly different there. The Fairgrounds is race 12 one

of those route races Where did they actually start the mile?

And an eighth Turf races at Fairgrounds for folks who are

not familiar. Joe.

Yeah. So the mile and an eighth turf

race. So we moved to the the 12th, the

fairgrounds. So that's kind of like

borderline like on the turn almost, I mean you got a, you

got a real short run, you got to get that position early.

You don't run a lot of mile and an 8 turf races here honestly.

So you know, once you settle into that position in and out of

that quick bend, you got a long run into the next turn.

But horses can sort themselves out pretty well and pretty

easily. I don't think it's really

detrimental so to speak. You never know what's going to

happen out of the gate to begin with.

But like a Higgins Boat in the 9 or a Warrior Johnny in the 10

and I think two horses frankly with shots here, you know,

Higgins boat has already won at fairgrounds in his career on

that turf course a couple back in November.

Is it is it detrimental to be in the 9 and 10 for A1 for a mile

and an eighth or will they be OK like you said because they have

that stretch to work it out? Warrior Johnny's going to go in

the mine shaft as long as the race stays on the turf because

he is cross entered. Got it Higgins both going to be,

I would say a little bit compromised.

You never know what's going to happen.

But even if there wasn't that short little bend at the start

of it, you know, with tactical speed and an outside draw,

Declan Cannon is going to have to work some magic to get

position 2 wide and not be hung 3 or 4 wide into the first turn.

Joel Myers who is the Pelicans play by play announcer talks

about the Fairgrounds all the time on his broadcast.

Great guy. I mean he's he's one of the

major owners of Higgins Boat so I'll be rooting for that horse

with my heart. I just don't know if he's quite

on par with some of the better ones.

Taking Candy I think is the horse to beat and the price I

like in there is Roland, Roland Pago Verde for Ken Mcpeak who is

is good on the turf and I think he's gotten even a little bit

better on the dirt in his last couple of races and that's not

his best game. He's only run 9 times and I

think he's still got some upside.

That's the horse that you'll get 6810 to 1:00 on that I think you

can include and maybe use in some of those multi race wagers.

You didn't mention Higante in the two horse here.

Jose Ortiz gets them out here. 1 is last two including in

December in a listed stakes but over the same course there at at

Fairgrounds. Any reason to leave him out

here? No, not really.

I mean, you know, they take the rails down, you know, for this

big day and the inside can often be good.

Now this horse doesn't have a lot of natural speed, but he's

quick enough to get in front of what say the he should get a

ground saving trip, maybe 5 lengths off the lead going to

get a great trip and you know, he's very trustworthy.

He's a model of consistency for sure.

Yeah, he loves that long stretch of Fairgrounds for sure.

Rachel Alexandra Stakes, the Grade 2 is race 13, start of the

late double there, 300,000 and the Kitty here for this one mile

and a 16th on the dirt. The first of the 50 Point Oaks

preps to this point. We see the return of good cheer

in this race and obviously a Fairgrounds star and simply

joking the 6th toward the outside.

Ballerina De Oro, we learned, will not run in this race for

Chad Brown. Good cheer coming off of a

layoff or, or simply joking. Who seems to be in form right

now. Do you tend to lean toward one

or the other in this, you know, in this kind of scenario, Joe,

or do you just take it race by race?

I mean, it looks like Tim simply joking might have a tactical

advantage. There's just not a lot of horses

that want to go forward here, maybe go well as the light goes

forward a little bit. And good cheer.

If you watch all of her replays, she never gets out of the gate

well. She's always spotting the field

four or five lengths. She gets an uncomfortable

positions, but she still finds a way to not only win, but win

convincingly. And she's got the perfect jockey

for her and Louis size. If you ask me which horse I

thought was more talented, I would say good Cheer, Simply

Joking could have the tactical advantage.

Maybe one of the Mcpeak horses has got a shot shot to step up

and take their game to a new level, but I think this race

probably winds up being pretty chalky.

Yeah, the the simply joking angle and and I, I spoke with

Wood Beckman for our our spotlight show here tonight.

I just I just the confidence to start a horse it stakes like

they did right? I mean, she just he just talks

about her. He just you could just hear him

through the phone glowing about this horse and with his, you

know, with his success with Anna Marie last year, Joe, I really

do you know, I trust Whit Beckman to to condition 3 year

olds and he's got a couple on the Oaks trail that look, you

know, two daughters are practical joke.

Frankly, they both look really great.

Yeah, the horse that won the Untappable, her laugh going into

the Letly air, he had said that simply joking was better than

her. He won the Letly air, then he

wins the Untappable with her laugh, then he wins the silver

bowl a day but simply joking. Then he went second last

weekend, her laugh with a terrible trip of Tampa still got

it out second to get more Oaks points.

He's an up and coming star in this game.

There's no question about He's got a lot of good young stock

and he seems to know how to develop it.

Joe Christophe with us, he's from the fairgrounds in New

Orleans. Big day tomorrow, of course,

Risen Star Day and that will close the card.

It's the Grade 2. It's a mile and an eighth on the

dirt. 3 year olds open company here. 50 points for the Kentucky

Derby. Be honest with me, Joe, when do

you start really looking for Derby contenders?

Are you really watching in October and November in those

maiden races or do you find yourself waiting for say, 2050

point races? No, I mean the Kentucky Derby's

the only month that honestly takes you seven months to

handicap. I'm looking way back in

September. I'm looking, you know, when E

Ave. debuted in August at Ellis Park, I mean, I was there for

that and I was like, man, this is a horse with a future.

So you, that's one of the fun, you know, most fun things about

this game. I'm not looking at 2 year old

races in April, May and even June.

Those horses rarely wind up being anything good.

Rachel Alexander, one of the examples that I can think of

that kind of buck that trend, but now is where you kind of

separate the men from the boys. You get to these 50 point races.

This is basically a win and you're in 50 points should get

you in. East Avenue has been training

like an absolute monster. He was one of the brightest

stars as a 2 year old. We know what happened to him in

the juvenile. I'm super excited to see him run

and maybe even potentially put on the show.

You mentioned him and you know the the first start as a

three-year old is incredibly important if you're going to win

the Kentucky Derby coming out of your fall.

You know, the the trip in the gate at the Breeders Cup.

I assume you're like me, just drawing a line through that

performance. Yeah, draw a line through that.

And probably 10 seconds after the gallop, Brendan Walsh was

already pointing to the Risen Star.

I mean, he's had this race on his radar since the Breeders Cup

Juvenile. And this horse has absolutely

responded to Brendan's plan, the way he's trained him, the way

the horses worked in company, the way the horses work solo.

He's got speed, he's tactical. You know, now he's got to prove

that tactical ability in a race because both times he's won,

he's gone gate to wire. Is he in need?

The lead type? I'm sure Brendan hopes that he

isn't, and if he isn't, that's going to make him doubly

dangerous. Bills us in here for trainer

Wayne Catalano, one of the classic you know when you think

of Fair guns you think of Wayne and and you know loose eyes gets

them out here. Jared Lowberry had been riding

previously. He ran second to disco time in

that sloppy Lecomte last out. He seems to be the best of you

know the group that's been based there since that gun runner in

December. Do you give him a shot here from

the 9 hole? I give him a shot and you know

there's positives and negatives. The major positives, the way he

ran in the Gun Runner, all of the pace was soft and the fact

that he gutted out second in a Lecompt when Jared Ludberry

said, and I believe Jarrett the horse didn't handle the

racetrack at all. He was kind of spinning his

wheels, Still was able to manage 2nd and almost won the race.

Now, what I don't like is kind of sort of the way he's coming

into this. He's had two, you know, very

leisurely half mile works. And the plant was not to run in

this race. The plant was to run in the

Louisiana Derby. I don't like when connections

deviate away from the original plan.

They want to try to get enough points to get into the Derby.

They got 20 already. They run second here.

They got 45. I mean, instead of waiting for

the Louisiana Derby, then it kind of puts you in a tight

spot, tight window to make the Derby if you don't run while

there. So I don't know talent wise,

love the horse, love Wayne. Would love to see him, you know,

prominent with a legitimate horse in the Kentucky Derby.

Just can't help but being a little bit skeptical here.

Your colleague Kevin, Kevin Kilroy almost said.

Kevin Kirsten, he's also your colleague, but that's a

different. KK said a nice piece yesterday

about Bob Most Carlitos who will break from the 12.

I can't remember the last time I saw Floral Giroux on a 30 to one

morning line horse, and I'm not. By the way, I'm not mad at the

morning line maker, I'm just saying I haven't seen it in a

long time. He rides for Greg Foley here.

Seem to like the course last time.

The 146 finish time in a mile and a 16th at Fairgrounds is

probably about the pace that you'll need as far as a

finishing time. It was slower early on, but is

this a horse you think can improve off the last run and be,

I don't know, maybe part of the exact or trifecta here?

Unless East Avenue has a rough break, a portrait, something got

a mile and need to make up for it, I'd be very surprised if he

didn't win. Now your long shots.

I've got two of them. One of them is Vamos Carlito.

So you mentioned who who ran really well last time against

Admiral Dennis, who was supposed to win that race for fun.

Admiral Dennis was the favorite in the gun runner you remember

very highly regarded a couple of months ago.

This horse almost beat him, galloped out like a horse.

And I have no problem with a mile and an eighth.

So always rooting for the Foleys.

I've had some horses for me over the years.

And then honestly, the other long shot that I like is

Giacoso. The Iroquois was deceivingly

good go on a one turn mile. I know his proven record is on

the turf, but he's been training great on the dirt here.

I think he's a mile on an eighth horse as well.

And we've seen Keith Disormo, you know, pull off some upsets

over the years. To keep the Zormo does hit at

15% switching surfaces from turret to dirt on that side as

well. If people are playing at

fairgrounds tomorrow and maybe they're not familiar with with

your set up down there and those kinds of things.

Are there more popular wagers that you've seen that you feel

like, you know, people should be getting in on?

Or is it, hey, this is this is horse racing.

Do you love your pick 4? Go play your pick 4.

Man, it all depends on your budget.

I mean, I'm I'm a big, you know, pick 5 player, $0.50 minimum low

15% take out, find a single or two depending on your budget.

If it's too hard for you and you don't have a big budget, you

don't, then skip that sequence. Find a sequence and there's

going to be several pick fives on the card.

Find a sequence where you like a horse or two that you feel like

you can single or races where you can double up depending on

how much you're willing to spend on your ticket.

And then just play intra race. I mean, to me, exactas are the

way to go. Simple win, double place bets

are the way to go. Try to maximize your opinions no

matter what wagers you play. That's the best advice I can

always give. He's Joe Christophe, he'll be on

the desk there at Fairgrounds in New Orleans for Risen Star

Saturday, tomorrow and of course, back up here at

Churchill Downs once they are running in late April.

We will talk to you ahead of the Louisiana Derby.

Joe, thanks for joining us on the Rebogo All.

Right, My pleasure. Thanks guys.

Enjoy your sports weekend, your racing weekend, and best of

luck. There we go, Joe Christophe down

there at Fairgrounds. Appreciate him joining us here.