SoCal Saturday Episode 1 | 2/15/25

the dos and tones of Socal Saturdays.

Louie Rebel Mary Spears hanging out with you on the first

rendition of this show. We'll be back every single

Friday to preview the Saturday that will be in Southern

California, whether it's at Saint St.

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Very good afternoon to you, my friend.

Good morning out West where we are broadcasting this.

Thanks so much for joining us for our first ever Socal

Saturday. Hey.

Thank you for having me. This is this is so much fun.

I, I, you know, Southern California has always been like

a staple for me as far as handicapping and playing the

races. And you know, when I was

younger, you really couldn't see a lot of races out there.

Now whole nother story and and and it's added to the whole

experience as a horse player. Yeah, I'm with you man.

And and just a great circuit. Obviously we're going to talk a

ton of turf racing, which gets me excited since the track near

my house doesn't do that very well.

And so I'm going to talk a ton of turf races on this Saturday.

We'll talk a bunch of California bred races as well.

But of course the the Palos ferrates a great 3 turf race on

this card as well. We'll go horse by horse in that

one to get you ready for the weekend.

Essentially this show is going to walk race by race through the

car to every single Saturday. So if you're interested in

what's happening in Southern California, I'd love for you to

join us here with amwagerandourfriends@amwager.com.

All right, let's get into a race.

One man. Like I said, the handicapping

show. Let's get into the handicapping

here. The opener on Saturday is at

12:30 Pacific Time, 3:30 on the East Coast, $33,000 in the Kitty

for a maiden claimer, $50,000 a 45 if you take the weight

allowance here. A mile on the turf course there

underneath the beautiful San Gabriel Mountains.

Where'd you land here? We've got an 8 to five favorite

in Goodfellow. The Irish bred Frankie Natori

rides. This horse was really close and

made and last out under Umberto Rispoli.

Where'd you land here, Barry? Mute, mute, mute.

I landed on the six Goodfellas. OK.

Goodfella. By the way, I want everyone to

know that's watching or listening or whatever you're

doing. For Barry Spears to pick an 8 to

5 horse means that he really thinks this horse is going to

win. Go ahead, buddy.

Yeah, I, I mean, yeah, I'm, I'm a chalk eating weasel in this

spot, but the body of work is just a little bit better than

over the ocean. I mean, the negative is this

horse has had thirteen tries at it and hasn't won.

But I I think this is a field that this horse can handle.

Yeah, I agree with you on that. And frankly, the horses run well

at Santa Anita as well, twice hitting the board in four runs

at the track. Frankly, it's best runs have

been recently right within a couple of lengths of the

leaders. We always joke, you know, that

if a horse knows that he's going to get the same amount of food

if he finishes second or third, it gets to be a problem after a

while. And that's why, frankly, I

landed on the 7th over the ocean here.

I'll take a bear to recently who I think is outside of of course,

Frankie Vittori, the best turf rider, you know, on the circuit

right now in Southern California, at least on a

permanent basis, has won 20% of his amount since December 26th,

the beginning of this meeting in Santa Anita.

I'm going to draw a line. I'm going to try to give the

horse a pass for the last race. I think a mile and an eighth was

just a little bit too long. We see a lot, Barry, of speed

horses getting the lead and keeping the lead in mile races,

especially over the turf course at Santa Anita and I expect over

the ocean to do that here. I think the six horse is

absolutely going to hit the board here as well, Barry.

So if someone's looking to play an exact to something like that,

it ain't going to pay much folks.

Watch yourself here. I think the seven and the six

have to be part of it. I laid it on a little bit of a

longer shot in the third spot here.

Bear inbound to succeed 6 to 1 here and I get to I mean, the

great thing here is then I get Juan Hernandez at that kind of

price, right? And frankly, I think the six and

the seven are going to take so much money even in a shorter

field here that we're going to see bound to succeed inch up in

that number. Has tried the distance before,

hasn't really broken through yet but was fourth by less than two

lengths last out under Hector Berios, like I said, picks up

Juan Hernandez riding for Peter Urton.

So if you wanted a longer shot play, I think the five bound to

succeed has a legitimate shot as well.

Do you have anybody longer here bear that you like?

Yeah, yeah #2 resemblance. There's a version of this race

where resemblance can just slide in right behind Noble Gary and

kind of get a good trip and, and and hang around.

I I think that's really, really possible in this spot.

Not sure what kind of price you're going to get, but it

should be a lot better than what you would get on the 6th or the

7th. Yeah, and Tiago Pereira, been

with this horse since the beginning. 2nd and 4th place

finishes last two out four resemblance finishing, though

within two lengths of the winners in both of those keeps.

All the same medication, all of those things, same conditions.

Should be 1-2, including your trifecta or or exacta plays as

well. Race 2 will be an optional

claimer. The optional claiming price is

very, very low because this is one of the new Northern

California races that is supplementing the card there at

Santa Anita. Barry, I really like these

races. I like that these are included

in the Santa Anita cards because he's a little tougher to

handicap, right? Trying to figure out which one.

Well, and with those sorts of things.

So we'll start looking at some of those trends as we go through

these shows week by week. But in this case, man, a $16,000

person, what a mile on the dirt course.

It is a one mile track there at Santa Anita.

You start and finish in the same spot.

Barry, I'll go first here on this.

And we see so many of these names that we're used to in the

Northern California Rakes as well, the Jeff Mullins of the

world and all that. Fun to see them down in Santa

Anita now. But the Seven Warrens world is

8:00 to 5:00 and I think a worthy favorite here as well.

Did win for fun last out at this level last time in the $5000

rings was claimed in that one and a a smaller barn here in the

trees barn. Only 41 starters last year, but

this horse gets connected with Armando Ayuso who used to ride

up north but has been in Southern California for oh boy,

been a couple years now frankly since moving his tack from

Golden Gate down there. The only reason I'm playing an 8

to 5 is because I'm trying to beat this 4:00 to 5:00 here

Barry in Nameless. So I do think I have in the

second spot and I do indeed won his last time, last one out as

well at the same level as as well for Jeff Mullins here and

Juan Hernandez. Essentially, I'm taking Armando

Ayuso in, in a claimer race here, Barry as opposed to Juan

Hernandez just to get value. But I think 76 on top for me.

Yeah, I went the same direction. It it doesn't really seem like

anybody else could get bet in this spot other than those two

horses. The seven has a little bit of a

pace advantage. I don't think this pace is going

to get too hot and seven looks like he or yeah, he will get the

the run of the race. I I wouldn't be surprised if

that actually is flip-flopped where the seven actually goes

off favored, even though the morning line says differently.

But you know it it is what it is for the second race on the card.

Very low level kind of claimer this has, you know, having these

Golden Gate type races here adds a little kind of turfly flavor

to it because these are all lower level type races and and

you can get some chaos. So it's it's, it's an added

bonus with the Santa Anita now. Yeah, I think this is the spot

where if you wanted to get creative in an early sequence,

whether it's an early pick five, pick 4, even a little pick three

in here, maybe a double, you know, use like a mischief's

thirsty here coming out of a win at Pleasanton, last out at a

mile 70, right? That kind of race where Barry in

Southern California, we see the buyer figures.

They're always really high for whatever reason, right?

We always see that Santa Anita seems to be the spot.

If you need a good buyer figure for your horse, run them there

in Pleasanton. We almost never see that.

So I always go by final times, Barry, when trying to compare

the different circuits between Northern and Southern

California. I think a minute 44 is totally

fine in here for Mischief's Thirsty, the one horse here.

These are just connections that we don't know very well in

Southern California. So I think the the morning line

maker's probably right here, Barry to have this horse at 12

to one, but it also offers the better an incredible opportunity

to have a horse of this of this of this caliber.

Frankly, that's one two of his last three finished third and

the other one same jockey for the last two races.

Makes the trip down from Pleasanton.

Like I mentioned, seems to fit in this class pretty well.

Yeah, You know, it's, it's kind of a crapshoot after you get

past the the six and the seven. I thought the three showed some

speed last time out of nowhere and maybe this horse is rounding

into form. Had some races back in July that

would be real competitive if not win this spot.

So I'd I'd give that one a shot to kind of turn things around

and hit the board at a big price.

Cooper Klimt is the two horse here, is in for the tag for

6250. So we will see if that one gets

claimed out of this race. Race 3 is another claimer,

$20,000 here, $23,000 for the purse, 6 1/2 furlongs there on

the dirt course at Santa Anita. And this is for Phillies and

mares 4 and up number 13 races. And so we are pretty simple,

straightforward condition here. Barry, who'd you land on?

I landed on the one. We're going to throw 1 downfield

our first. Yes, I.

Want a? Strange addiction.

You know this horse if you eliminate those grass races

right? This horse is right there with

everybody else. If you just eliminate those

races and then you can even eliminate the the synthetic.

Ones elastic races, yeah, right. Yeah.

So the October 20th race all the way through the December 13th

race, any one of those fits in this spot and this horse is

technically dropping in class, although I think that class is

probably this level fits coming from pleasant in the allowance.

You know the first level allowance races into this spot.

Non winters are three. This horse might have a little

bit of a pace advantage, so you might see this horse closer up

to the pace then what you can see in the past Durst races over

the summer and deeper into in the November.

So I I'd give this horse a shot in this race.

I mean there there's no world beaters in here.

The favorites look OK, right, but the the pace actually sets

up better for the one than it does them.

They have similar running styles.

Yeah, I I couldn't quite figure this one out either.

I landed on UFTA, the six horse year for Kyle Frey and for Eric

Krochak. I just but I don't love it

right. A horse is coming off in a

Sprint there. We're going back to the dirt

here, which has been a good angle, but there's not a ton of

data on it. But I've seen the horse run well

at other places. 2 for four lifetime trying the dirt.

I like the horse getting back to this spot.

One for one at Santa Anita with a really good buyer as well.

So I landed there. But I'm with you.

I I mean, you have to go back one to October to get that that

buyer figure back then. So is that the same horse that

we're going to get this weekend? I'm with you. 20 to one here

isn't ridiculous. I'll tell you one that I'm

against is, is the five stellar cap.

I cannot figure out for the life of me why this horse would be in

at 7:00 to 2:00. I this is the one that I'm going

to try to beat and keep out of my tickets is the five horse

Stellar cap here for Thiago Pereira.

We just take the prices up in the previous race, of course,

but in this spot I'll try to beat I think the the four.

Isabel Ludlow is really interesting to hear too at 5:00

to 1:00. Blat Herrera combination a solid

11% together. Considering the kinds of races

that they team up on at Santa Anita.

I really I really think this horse has a chance.

Finished a good second at this level last time going the same

distance, a little bit shorter at Santa Anita last out had the

lead. If that horse can even just keep

a little bit more of that pace under check at the beginning of

the race, 'cause they went 22 and 45 real quick, quick, they

keep that a little bit higher, maybe 22 and change get up in

the 40 sixes after that. Might have a real shot here as

well. Did win at the claiming 16 level

at Del Mar, just a couple of stops back as well.

And I think to lose the track. Of course, the seven horse here

is the favorite for a reason. Did win last time.

But Barry, I kind of have a rule.

If a horse went one for 8:00 last year, I doubt very much

they're going to go back-to-back to start 2025, for example.

Yeah, that's a tough task. I I mean, especially in this

race there there's more, way more speed.

I mean, that race I I know the fractions are quick and

everything, but there was nobody around that horse at all the

whole race. And I I just can't imagine this

race setting up that same exact way.

And I think that's the only way the seven can win.

The six is a little bit tougher. I mean, I can see the the

instructions they're going to say for the, you know, they're

going to tell Kyle Frey sit right off of the speed.

And. Let him go in the in the stretch

and if he runs, he runs. If he doesn't, he doesn't.

And and you know, this lower level type race it it's you get

these inconsistent types like stellar Cap is is kind of like

the same way, except on the lead.

So these are tough races because they fall in and out of form so

often. I always have to give longer

shots like Strange addiction a a shot.

Yeah, I'm with you. He's Barry Spears.

My name is Louis Rabo. This is So Cal Saturdays with AM

Wager and our friends at the Sporting Tribune.

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An optional claimer comes up next in Race 4.

We're back to the turf here. Barrow a mile on the turf course

there, 34,000 in the Kitty. Claiming price of $50,000 in

this one. Or unless you can kind of weasel

your way out by being a Cal bread, which is always a good

thing to do in these races. I thought an interesting field

here, Barry. We do only have 6 in here.

Earn Not Giving comes in at 4:00 to 5:00.

You can try to beat the pave. No.

Not at all. Me neither no that that horse

looks looks the best on paper should get the trip to boot.

I know a lot of these horses kind of look similar on paper,

but just the the speed figures alone should place this horse in

the winner's circle, right? I, I really, there's nothing to

get too excited about with any of these horses, but I mean, the

favorite definitely looks the best horse in here.

Yeah, I think are not given looks the best for sure.

Victor Espinosa, a very slow start to this beat one for 15 at

Santa Anita. If you wanted to try to pick

nits here, I guess you could do that with him.

But overall, obviously we know what Victor Espinosa is capable

of and should be just fine. Do you believe he only had 111

months last? Year.

Yeah, I mean, he, I remember, I thought I heard him say that he

was going to dial back a little bit and go for quality, not

quantity. So I guess that's what he's

doing. 111's pretty low though, brother.

That is, that is, That's not many.

I don't know he was he hurt or anything?

I don't remember. I don't remember that either,

but I went with the five in the second spot here.

Dino Dave comes out of a mile win in a maiden special.

It was a state restricted race at at Del Mar, but frankly all

the splits make sense for that one as well. 138's going to be a

little slow at San Anita over the mile course there on the

turf, you see lots of 130 fours and 1:36.

Is that kind of thing including or not Given in his last race

was sub 137 there, which is why I do think he's got probably the

best shot or not given probably the best single in the early

pick 5 Barry, because I think he is.

I wouldn't say the best, but he should win.

The best I don't want to use like a quality word here.

Yeah, right. Yeah, he.

Still should win. I I I'd give the three a shot a

little bit in here. I I there's not too many horses

in this race that have won or ran against Winters.

There's only three. The two, the three and the four.

I would use those 3 to be honest, but a 2-3 exact the cold

seems like the play to me. The three ran good enough and

should you know, be close up to the pace.

I I I'd give that one a shot just because of the the fact

that this horse has run against Winters a few times and didn't

run all that poorly. Well, and if we like earn not

given that much to finish only a couple legs behind earn not

given and you get the 12 to one price, Yeah, I'm with you.

That's not a that's not a crazy play in there whatsoever.

Closing the early pick five will be Race 5 on Saturday at Santa

Anita. It is a maiden 55 1/2 furlongs

on the dirt course there. This is for Cal Breads and

three-year olds. In this case, Western Freedom

and eight to five inside. Favorite second time starter for

Brian Corner in this spot. Barry People are going to learn

on this show that I love a second time starter a lot.

But once in a while, Barry, you got to try to hit a long shot.

Louis Long shot is in this race. The 9 on the outside.

El Ondeado comes in for Jorge Parabon.

Why not? Ran in this level the last two

times out both at Los Al and at Del Mar and I'm largely going on

the works at Santa Anita since then and they've been really

good on the dirt course. So perhaps this horse getting to

try to get back to Santa Anita will really like it.

I don't love any of the favorites in here.

I think the one should win here, Barry, but I don't love that

horse. I'm I can't even be guaranteed

that in a state bred $50,000 climber that that horse is going

to show back up like it did the first race.

So I'll take a flyer 9:50 to 1:00 on the 9 on the outside

here in Race 5. Yeah, I'm not too enthused about

Western freedom drawing the rail.

It might be a little bit of a disadvantage because I think the

two might have equal amount of zip and also a pair bond

trainee. The workout on February 2nd,

yeah, really stuck out to me. It's the longest, fastest gate

work closest to the race. I use that angle a lot when

there's little form. It's kind of an idea that the

horse has some talent and quickness out of the gate speed,

which wins a lot of maiden races.

Horses really don't understand how to run yet and sometimes the

fastest horse actually wins. So I I like to use that a lot

and Distant Fleet is the horse that actually has that getting

Lasik's first time out trainers 17% it's good enough in this

spot, Yeah and 20. $4.00 the whole thing, yeah.

Yeah, I mean that he he does OK with the with the first time

starters good enough, especially in this spot compared to

everybody else. Gray area of the 8 actually

caught my eye too. I think the slight drop will

make all the difference. The last workout, January 19th,

this horse seemed to perk up a little bit.

Getting the blinkers and getting a rider change to Edgar Prayeres

might make all the difference. And I think this horse can be

close up, has a little bit bit of experience, so probably won't

need the lead or you know, could be right around it and still be

able to finish. So I'll give that one a shot at

8 to 1/2. And if you know, if people don't

know their their low Sal night racing, for example, they

wouldn't know that Edgar Perez is a Sprint specialist, right?

This is what saluting this kind of distance is what he does very

well. So I don't hate that.

I was looking at those works and thinking of it differently than

you Barry, which was man, I wish this race were at low Sal for

him. Yeah, yeah, obviously.

Yeah, yeah. You push all.

It is exactly right. I like the seven in here, and

you have to draw hard lines through this one for sure.

But you talk about the gate work.

This is another one that had a very good gate work just the

other day. And so Sir Tom, coming off of a

longer layoff for Doug O'Neill, they gelded this one.

They're taking the blinkers off. This is such a classic freaking

Doug O'Neill horseman just. Oh, why not us?

Yeah, we can. Let's go ahead and win this one.

Yeah. So, Sir Tom, this just feels

like the Bodhi Express child that screws my tickets early on

in the California thing. And so Sir Tom, an interesting

one to me as well. Obviously, I, I, I think anybody

could win Race 5 there Saturday at Santa Anita, we move on to

Race 6. This does start the all turf

pick three and the late pick 5 as well on the card here, Palos

Verdes. Up next, we'll talk about that

Grade 3 go runner by runner in that one, Barry Spears, Louis

Rabo with you here on the am wager.

So Cal Saturdays we are on the Sporting Tribune as well,

$25,000 claimer here over the mile turf course again, Barry,

we talked about it before the show.

Tons of turf racing and that's that's exactly what we're

getting for here. 4 year old and up on the Philly and mare side.

34,000 in the Kitty here. This is just a straight up

claimer. There's no conditions to this

one. Barry, where did you land?

I landed on #2 Annie's joy reluctantly.

Very reluctantly. I mean, it was kind of by

attrition, to be honest with you.

Nobody else really looked as good as that one.

I was trying to get the horse beat, trying every angle, way,

shape or form, but I I just couldn't do it.

It seems like the rest of the horses just aren't fast enough,

including the morning life favorite, Big Mama Sue.

So they're going to be up against it.

Mike Smith, you know, he's a vet, old vet, does the right

thing. Whether this, you know, if it,

if nobody goes to the front, he'll be on the front.

If not, he'll be right second, right off it.

And that's probably where you need to be.

Yeah. I'm, I'm interested because I,

I'm going to lean on the 2 outside horses, one of them that

you just besmirched in Big Mama Sue, but then also the 8 Chasing

Serendipity. The reason Barry, is very simple

for me. It's it is the record at the

track for Big Mama Sue, who has three wins in Santa Anita and it

is the record at the distance for Chasing Serendipity, who

does have four wins and it's hit the board half the time in 16

runs at the distance as well. I'm just going on experience

here and that's really where I'm leaning in my handicapping.

You know, you mentioned another runner.

I think the two horses a little interesting here as well.

And Annie's joy, like you mentioned with Mike Smith.

I I think the class drop does matter for her as well, right

coming out of that, you know, more of that starter allowance

kind of company for non twos and then getting into this sort of

company. My horse didn't win last year

and it didn't win a debut this year.

And I, you know, I start to wonder about those kinds of

things. Whereas I can get a big Mama Sue

who won a couple times last year.

I get a chasing serendipity who won a couple times last year.

So that's where I'm going to lean here.

Between the seven and the 8, which one do you like more?

The seven, OK, just slightly. I mean the eight, I think the

eights running style is, is going to be up against him or

against her in this spot because it's going to be like a chase

sort of situation. I'm not really sure where if

they're going to try to kind of get up close or lag back and try

to swoop. It's it's just a tough post

position, that's all. Well there you go, we move on to

the Palos Verdes. It will be race 7:00 tomorrow on

Saturday at Santa Anita Park. Again, am wager am wager.com

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The Palos Verdes is great is a grade 3.

It is a Sprint over 6 furlongs on the dirt.

We got a field of 6 for this one.

It's for four and up and it is $100,000.

Of course, a grade 3 and we've got a a couple of names.

I think if people you know follow West Coast racing,

Anarchist is in here. The two horse, 12:50 on the

horse like Anarchist in a short field for All Mankind on the

outside as well has been running in different races was in the

San Anita Sprint Challenge most recently amongst stakes company

Man. Is Big City Lights really worthy

of two to five here, Barry? Two to five kind of shocked me,

but when you go through everybody it's it's hard to get

around this horse. I mean even the horses that have

sort of the similar running style just aren't as fast like

the four Barth of the you know on paper visually looks exactly

like big city lights, except for those buyer numbers are just not

as high. You know it, it's just one of

those things where this horse just speed figure wise is faster

than every horse in this race and and that doesn't happen very

often. The thing?

Here you get Juan Hernandez aboard Big City Lights, the one

that horse ran a 1:09 and 2:00 last out over this distance.

OK Martha D, who you mentioned ran a 109 flat, but that was a

Tyler base. Do you care about that?

Nah, it doesn't matter. You know, fast is fast is fast,

but you know against who you know, that's really the

difference between the two of them because you could have big

city lights drop into this spot, right, and just dominate without

even getting a triple digit buyer.

Yeah, the other part is he was just written out.

He ran a one O 9 and two without being pressed right.

Big city lights in his last race.

I mean, yeah, that was that was over 7 and then you know, before

that ran into Cary Grant won that one by over 8 lakes under

Kimura. So even just you know, a good

third place finish in that in that pad O'Brien no one was

catching raging torn. He finished behind raging torn

and chosen LeBron. I mean 000 shame in any of that

right comes back his favorite last two out has run without

Lasix a lot, frankly, right, and that's the thing that we got to

watch Bartha DI don't think it's ever run without LASIK, for

example. So you know, we get into

medication and those kinds of things.

I don't know how much Barry Spears cares about those kinds

of things. But yes, it makes big city

lights a big, big favorite here. Would you have Bartha D second,

maybe a roll on Big Joe? Where would you land if we're

trying to play an exact here? This, this is a tough spot for

everybody to be honest, but I, I'd, I'd go with the two.

I agree. I think the two can kind of just

skate right around with the one and one two all the way around

like a Choo Choo train. Anarchist does run three times

in Santa Anita. Do you know where he's finished

in all three of those runs? Second place.

So there you go. There's a gold exacto 1-2 in the

Palos Verdes. Roll up big.

Joke. Funny, but that August 24th Pat

O'Brien race, if you just switch the top two, those are the three

fastest horses out in California.

Yep. So it'd be chosen Ron Raiden,

Torrent, then big City Lights. I mean, it couldn't have gotten

any easier in the Pat O'Brien to be honest.

But that those are the, I mean, if you, if you want to keep that

as the benchmark, those are the top three out there.

And then, you know, look at what he's facing.

This is also bad. They just don't have the

experience or the, you know, the class.

They don't have the class of the other ones that we've talked

about. You're exactly right, especially

about the Pat O'Brien field. Looks now in retrospect, like

you said, a terrific field. You know, top three finishers

are there as fast as anyone in the sprinting, especially on

dirt in this country. Interesting thing with, you

know, big city lights. This this pattern of starts is

so Mandela, is it not to give his horses this motion between

starts? And I know for some of us it's

like, oh, just run your horses. But then he gave us flight

lines. So we can't be that mad.

But you know, the thing here is his horse runs in November, then

he runs in mid January. Now he gets a little bit, you

know, just about a month off. So this is actually a a tight

squeeze for him. But second off, this kind of

layoff, of course, for Richard Mandel, Mandela surgical like.

Precision. 31%, that's exactly right.

So 23% in graded stakes. We will look at him in the

seventh race, 1-2 exacta, but looking for the one to nominate

there. Hanging out with Barry Spears.

I'm Louie Rabo at Radio Louie, find him at Urban Handicapper

and of course and Wager and wager.com.

Go check out our friends over there.

We move on to race 8. It is a maiden special Sprint on

that turf shoot, which I love so, so much at Sanity as much as

the downhill course. It's OK to say, but you know I

love it all the same. Maiden special 60,000 and the

Kitty here. This is for three-year old

Phillies who are maidens, of course, a first timer as the

favorite for John Sheriff's here in the one horse here.

Barry, where did you land Here, man?

Because I'm wondering. I got a long time.

Yeah, this one, you got to let it fly.

I mean, the one as, as the favorite is, I mean, you got to

be pretty good in order to make that work.

And I, I just couldn't endorse that horse.

You know the workouts look fine and all, but.

Can you remember, And I'm not and I'm not picking on anybody,

I'm really not, I promise. In your mind, can you even think

to a time when a horse was 2 to one on debut and the trainer had

won one of their last 22 debut runs?

Can you think of that? No.

I, I can't I so it just, it stands out as a, as an incorrect

line that for that reason that that's all, that's all.

Yeah. I mean given given the context I

I really don't think that horse is going to be favored anyway,

but I did land on the 9. OK.

We're throwing one downfield here.

Favorite to you. You know, Vizsadero is a pretty

good, pretty good horse in his own right out of Kitten's Joy,

out of an arch mare. I mean, this horse has to be

able to turf a little bit. A little bit, yeah.

I like the I like the workouts in January 19th and January 9th,

especially the 9th because it was out of the gate.

Again, that's where I was saying how gait works, kind of hint to

ability and and and quickness out of the gate to get position.

I'm not sure how fast this horse actually is, but I know the

source can get out of the gate using their go to rider and

Frasu. I think this horse is

interesting in this spot where, you know, it's, it's kind of a

crapshoot other than like Jungle Piece, who I think has a pretty

decent shot because this horse has two runs.

But other than that, it's really, you know, what's your

flavour. I'll tell you my flavour.

OK. It's a woman named Cloudy Woman,

Cloudy Women, daughter of Cloud Computing.

I was there when she won that, when he won that Preakness.

I should say I like the run last time, got Lasix the first time.

Hector Barrios got the mount last time.

Really liked how that horse looked over the distance to back

as well. Gave a little bit of time off

from October to January. We're second in the form cycle

here. That's a 27% angle for John

Sadler here. I'm putting the seven on top.

I'm going to be pretty aggressive with this one.

This feels like Barry. A pretty easy double for me.

One seven from races, 7:00 to 8:00.

I like that a lot. Frankly, I think that's the kind

of play you have to make to maximize value on a horse like

Big City Lights, right, is to play it in a double or in a pick

three or something like that. Kind of hide that horse in the

wager that way. But I'll go with cloudy women

here on top, man. I think that Juan Hernandez is a

great addition here. He and John Sandler are winning

at 24% together at Santa Anita in their most recent runs, the

last 46. I mean, the decent sample size

as well. So yeah, I'll go to the seven

cloudy women here. Nice.

Yeah, I, I, I really didn't. I wasn't too enthusiastic about

the horses that have run already, but they can be any

kind. It's not like they've run a

whole bunch of times, maybe once or twice.

And that's not really a judgement on anybody.

So it it's, it's really a crapshoot this race.

I I would never take a favorite under any circumstances.

Even if they win, I wouldn't even feel a bit bad about it.

Like, let's say the Entresto wins, you can't really feel bad

about not betting that horse. Oh, I agree.

Yeah. And, and frankly, yeah, like I

said, sheriff's I, I backed a sheriff's horse with cloudy

women, excuse my Sadler horse with with cloudy women.

I, I back sheriffs in other races, just not with first time

starters. It just doesn't seem like

something that, you know, he's shooting for, you know, in in

our, you know, Rusty Arnold, for example, in Kentucky.

And I know I'm always looking at that.

I see a first timer for him. I'm like, great, I'll see it for

the second race. I mean, just, you know, it's.

Just. I'm not even hanging on Rusty,

like Rusty does a great job, right?

It's not that. It's just I know first time out

I don't have to worry about it. That's just not part of handicap

in this spot. We'll see.

Like you said, would we be stunned?

No. The answer's no.

Not stunned, No, I'm surprised. Yeah, I would be.

I'll put it that way. We move on to the late double

here. By the way, I I forgot to

mention, if you have not spent much time wagering in Southern

California, a couple of cool additions, great additions.

I think to the mark to the the betting card and available bets

at Santa Anita. The late pick 3 is a $3 minimum,

Mary with a 15% take out, low take out, higher floor needs,

better payouts. It just does a reminder that we

just talked about race eight that will start the late pick 3

and in race 9 starts the late double.

It is a $5 minimum with a 15% take out.

So that is also extraordinarily playable.

I don't know if man, I got to say Barry, and this is when I

knew I was a full bold degenerate was when Golden Gate

closed. I thought, oh man, no more

golden hour wagers, you know, That's all.

That's all I thought about. That's all I thought about.

Dollar minimum on that BIG4, the $5 minimum on that.

I played that double. Man the pick fours were great.

Man they they paid so good a lot.

Yes. Oh, they played 1001 all the

time. Just all the time.

They just did. It was great.

Oh man, those. Were fun fun and it was over and

a pick 4 was done in an hour. Yeah, it was, I mean, it was

bang, bang, bang, bang. And then you're like, all right,

let's, let's cash that. Was great.

So race 9 starts that late, double that $5 late double 15%

take out on that. So let's see if we can't find

some horses in here that tickle our fancy.

A state bred optional claimer here. 20,000 is the claiming

price, 61,000 is the purse. 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt here

and this is for four year olds and up open company that have

never won essentially a second race other than maiden blah blah

blah. You know those conditions that

we see so so often Loads of Stew and other odds on in here Barry

what's this three odds on already maybe 4 on this card

Antonio Frey who keeps them out here. 4th trainer Mark Glatt a

worthy three to five. Are we looking at you know could

you play like two horses in each race and hit the pick 5 late?

I I I doubt. It very absolutely, absolutely.

I think those ones too is is a stand out here.

I mean, his, his buyer, his last two buyers are twice as much as

everybody else's and it's just he just stands out.

It's going to be really hard to beat this horse no matter what

he does. He could go in the lead, might

come off the pace. Whatever he wants to do, he can

do it. You know, there, there's really

not much underneath. I I do like the six a little

bit. Has a race way back September

2023 that kind of fits here. And this horse has been running

on the turf for quite a while. Even his recent dirt races

weren't that bad and kind of stack up OK here with the slight

drop. I think that puts him closer to

the pace and that's probably where you need to be.

I have the four on top as well. I thought Tom Seaver on the

outside was interesting. Only three lifetime starts.

Has 1/2 of them. One on debut in a state

restricted maiden special at Santa Anita.

They immediately put this horse up against winners at Santa

Anita. On the Turf goes ahead and wins

that one as well under Antonio Freis, who drops the latex.

They try him in the Echo Eddy, which is a state bred Sprint

race at Santa Anita. That was in April of last year.

Gets a ton of time off here for Phil d'amato.

If you follow Phil D'amato, this is what he does.

He brings horses back in these kinds of spots.

Hits at 18% off these kind of longer layoffs.

He and Armando Ayuso too for their last 10 together, 24%

overall in all competition. So I think for value 6 to one on

the outside, if I'm looking to fill out that Exacta Barry, I'd

go 48 in this spot. OK, hey that now, Didn't Seaver,

didn't he like throw like a a a sinker?

Wasn't that his pitch? Was that Tom Seaver's big pitch?

I. Don't know.

I don't remember. I remember he's a nice pitcher,

but I, I, I remember he didn't throw gas.

He was kind of like a, a Maddox type.

But I. Could be.

Wrong. Nicknamed Tom Terrific in the

franchise, he played twenty seasons in the majors for the

Mets, Reds, White Sox, and Red Sox from 67 to 86.

Commonly described as the most iconic player in Mets history,

he played a significant role in their World Series win over the

Orioles. 61 career shutouts. You know, I hear those kinds of

numbers, Barry. I wonder if anyone alive now

will ever throw 61 shutouts. No way they don't pitch.

Enough. I just don't do it anymore.

Right. I mean they.

Don't pitch enough Hall of Fame first year of eligibility in

1992, receiving the highest percentage of votes ever at the

time. So there you go.

I do not see anything about his his pitches unfortunately, but

he and Walter Johnson are have 3000 strikeouts, 300 wins and an

earned average under 300 under 3.

So there you go Tom Seaver worthy of of having a horse

named after him. I almost cursed and I didn't

need to do that. So there you go Well TA little

top seaver on the the am wager so Cal Saturday with you again,

100% deposit bonus. Get in with our friends at am

wager AM wager.com for all of those details as well.

Maiden special closes it on Saturday and again this is going

to be a Cal bred race in here in the shoot 6 furlongs on the

turf, $60,000 for three-year olds.

These are for maidens. Hot head is in here.

The two horse at 5:00 to 2 has really enjoyed at least last out

the switch to of the turf here. Are you going to try the second

time? Turfer here.

No, we're going to try to get that one beat.

You know, that horse actually did run big and I I do expect

that horse to run big again. I agree, but I'm going to try a

first time starter. We're going to throw it

downfield here to try to bail out with the 10 Gemini Buzz.

Love it. This this horse has some

precocity in the pedigree. There's there's a lot of Sprint

turf Sprint action going on in the in the pedigree.

A lot of horses winning early first or second start.

The source is showing some zip in the mornings January 5th, the

nice gate work 48 flat and then another one on February 3rd.

So we'll give that one a shot at 15 to one.

Why not? Hansen does pretty good first.

Time out and and on the turf. He does his best work there, so

why not? It's not even a question.

This is where Ryan Hansen is the best.

That's right. This kind of race.

That's exactly right with the first time starter, you know,

and and frankly, he and Escobedo have started to really hook up

as well. 23 starts together, 13% winning percentage on those.

That's plenty good for me to get 15 to one on a horse.

In that case, I think the four and the two are the favorites

here. You know what's amazing?

I landed on the 10 as my long shot as well.

So there you go. If anybody's looking for, I've

got a long shot here in this spot.

Barry and I have a a sheet that we we we share together, but I

made sure not to look at Barry's pics before the.

Ritchie Body, either your first or last.

Yeah, well, you and I landed 10 and two in our top three.

You have the 12 as well. Another first timer here.

Silver. I am.

I think that's one worth a Aceo Espinosa here for Phil d'amato.

If if this horse. No, but if this horse runs like

it did at LaSalle and you know, this bear we see.

And this is something we'll talk about when we get to the LaSalle

meetings, whether it's in September, whatever.

All the turf horses that are very comfortable on the dirt

surface at Los Al because it does seem to translate well, so

a horse working at Los Alt doesn't bother me ahead of this

race. Yeah, yeah.

I mean Phil d'amato. Also kind of.

Owns the turf out there, so he he knows what he's doing

slightly. So I'll, I'll, I'll defer to his

expertise, but that horse doesn't look all that bad.

The post isn't the greatest, but correct.

Kantharos the sprinter. Why not?

I'm with you. And frankly, yeah, Alphabet song

on the damn side. That's a name that I don't hear

too terribly often. But when we get into cowbreads,

you know, you talk about those sorts of things.

But yeah, it's all spreading, right?

I mean, this is what this horse should want to do.

Interesting 1. You know, I do love to and and

you'll get tired of hearing about this on the show if you if

you hang around with us. I love when people breed a horse

for like 3 grand. And then it's the.

Best special or something? Yeah, it's the best.

I love those kinds of stories. And so Silver, I am a $12,500

son of Cantharos on the breeding side or the homebreds there for

the folks there. But yeah, now it should be a

fun, should be a fun day on Saturday.

A lot of odds on favorites. Let's say there were four of

them here, Barry. How many of them do you think

end up winning? Three, just on the average,

three out of the 10. Yeah, that sounds about right.

They'll win three of the races there.

Man, oh man, that was a fun card.

I I, I, you know, I like a mixed bear and you and I have talked

about this before of, you know, getting that Palos Verdes in the

middle where we get those high end sprinters very fast, very

capable sorts of horses. Nothing wrong with a good state

bread race mix right next to it. You know, just trying to figure

out the patterns of those horses coming out of a pleasant in or

whatever it might be. I love this kind of mix of

races. So kudos to the folks in the

racing office there and making sure that we've got twelve

horses in the finale, right, that we know, you know, leading

into that, whether you're playing that late pick three of

the late double or, you know, picking up the late pick 5,

something like that, you're going to get a chance at a real

price in the last race. Yeah, I notoriously I like

playing the state bred races because there's always a lot of

chaos. I mean you get these small time

breeders that get these nice horses that kind of come out of

nowhere, especially in the maidens.

It's it's such a good betting opportunity is as long as you

can seize that moment and embed it correctly, you can make some

good money, even if it's just that one race.

There you go. Well again, amwager.com is where

we are pointing you to 100% deposit match right now up to

$150.00. Get over there. amwager.com

available in Southern California and all over lots of places, but

go ahead and bet all of those California races with our

friends at Amwager. He's Barry Spears.

I'm Louis Rebeau. You can catch me tonight at six

O clock on ESPN 680-1057 on the Kentucky Racing Spotlight.

Back at it next week on Socal Saturdays again as we go back to

Santa Anita and look at the card then.

Barry, thanks so much, man, for being here for the inaugural

edition of the show. You are always muted up when I

need you to say something nice. You know that.

That's what you do to me, Barry Spears.

You throw them up when I'm very nice to you.

And then you're like, oh, I'm saying something nice, but I'm

muted so you can't hear it. And everyone's thinking at it.

That's what happens here, you understand?

Oh. I feel horrible.

Well, don't do that. That's not a good way to start

the weekend. No, thank you so much for having

me on on the first one. You know, it's, it's definitely

an honor. I I like being the 1st to do

stuff. It's the opposite of the

Chappelle Show kiss kit where we are told never to be the first

person to do something. But yes, we will take the the

first foray, the first foray into the the Socal Saturdays.

We'll be back next week and every week with a preview of

racing in Southern California again, back at it at Santa Anita

next week. His name is Barry.

My name is Louis. We're back with you next time

here on Socal Saturdays. Thanks to our friends and AM

Wager and our friends out there, of course, with with the

Sporting Tribune. Look for my column tomorrow as

well, previewing the Palos Verdes and the late sequence and

getting a wager together. Good luck with those wagers this

weekend. Go check them out.

AM wager.com.