California Racing Update | John Cherwa, L.A. Times

Here we go, all. Right Welcome to March 13

edition of the Horse Racing Happy Hour alongside a guy named

John Shirva, our most frequent guest on the show from the Los

Angeles Times. Of course, you can find all of

his stuff at latimes.com/sports joins us here on the Horse

Racing Happy Hour. As John has written, at least in

my very biased and non humble opinion, the two best pieces

about how to fund this Southern California racing thing moving

forward. John, good afternoon.

What inspired you to put these together?

Well, it's the it's the number one topic in California racing.

I mean, that's really, I think people want to know or wanted to

know why doesn't California have historical horse racing and what

they're doing about it? Well, I think what my story said

was this is what they're thinking, but they're not really

doing anything. It's a, it's a solution without

a plan. And I've followed it up with

calls. I make a call once a week to, to

people to try to find out where they are on historical horse

racing. And the answer is I don't know,

you know what I mean. I can't talk to the principals

because they've all shut me out because they've they've signed

Ndas, non disclosure agreements. And but yeah, I'm, I'm, you

know, fairly well sourced with other people around them.

And, and if your problem in California is they need

historical horse racing, then why don't they try and get it

and what are they doing to get it?

So that's kind of go ahead. Yeah, for those of us who are

are, you know, on the on the very outskirts of of California

racing, you're very much on the inside, of course.

And I am. I'm out there once, twice a

year, that kind of thing, whether for Breeders' Cup or

something else, it, it just always does stand out because we

hear this, oh, why aren't other states helping us?

And, and, and all of us stand back and go.

There are twice as many people in Los Angeles as there are in

Kentucky, you know, and, and we, we kind of just stand back and

we wonder, you know, what it is about that place that they can't

get the funding together for such a beautiful place, for such

an, you know, an idyllic spot to spend a Saturday, etcetera.

But it is the historical racing component of this that is

interesting. You do point out in the first

article on the on February 2nd that, you know, when the

wildfires happen, you know, and essentially is when this, this

article came out. Santa Anita does what it always

does. It was a good citizen, right?

Sets up a, a drop center. It's not as though they're not

part of the community. If anyone's been to Santa Anita,

you know, even to Del Mar, which of course is on the fairgrounds

there, but you know, they're in neighborhoods, they're part of

the community. You know, there's a shopping

mall right next to Santa Anita. It's just so stunning to those

of us, John, on the outside looking in that they would be,

you know, short of money, But it it's reflected in, you know,

purses and different things as well.

You know, good citizens don't always make all the most money

these sorts of things. But is this a case of, you know,

what's I, I, I've worked on non profit boards before and I

remember it one in particular, they weren't releasing the

finances to their donors and, and the money wasn't coming in

the way that it was. And I said, why don't you just

tell people what you want to do? Oh, well, you know, it, it, it

might not align with I'm like, don't, who cares?

How would you know if it's going to align if they're not giving

you money, you know, that kind of thing.

And so is it, is it potentially that where they're just not

putting out there? If we had historical gaming, we

we, we could do this for the next 50 years.

The problem goes back to the way gambling is set up in California

and they basically the the tribes, the the the tribal

Commission controls all gambling in the state of California, all

non paramutual gambling there is like this horse racing

exemption. Now the real question is, is HHR

paramutual wagering? Well, they have, they have

structured it so that it appears to be, you know, that it's based

on, on past races. They give you minimal and by

minimal, however little you think it is, it's even less than

that. Well, you know, 'cause you live

in Kentucky amount of, of handicapping information, which

then allegedly turns it in from a game of chance into a game of

skill. And that's that's where the rub

lies is, is if it is considered paramutual wagering that it is,

then the regulations belong to the California Horse Racing

Board. And frankly, Santa Anita could,

could put it out there right now.

Now be as you know, being right is never enough because it can

it can cost you a lot of money to be right.

And there's not a lot of doubt that the tribes would bring

litigation against, against San Anita or Delmar, whoever, you

know, put in, in the machines. And that's what they're trying

to, I guess that's what they're trying to navigate is how to do

this without getting sued. But, you know, I don't think

that's going to happen. One of the plans is to just put

it in there and fight it out in the courts.

And why they haven't done that, I don't know.

I have not talked to representatives of the tribes in

over a month. I need to try to get back to

them and find out if there's any progress, if if anything has

been done to try to get this, this happened.

And, and let's face it, Santa Anita after Santa Anita Derby

day, it is really not a great meet.

You know, it's, it's just sort of a, a all the good three-year.

Olds stream after the Florida Derby, right?

It goes from championship beat to their summer beat kind of

thing. Yes, yes, exactly.

And so if you're going to do this, wouldn't you do it before

your biggest day or do you try to experiment in your in your

bad days? I mean, I don't know, it's, it's

got me really sort of flummoxed as to who's in charge and what

are they doing. In, in the scenario you

described where they just set it up and they run with it, would

that be on site then at a place like Santa Anita?

Because, you know, we've got different scenarios in the state

of Kentucky. You know, at a Kentucky Downs,

it's right on site. It's not on site at either

Churchill or Keeneland. It's on site at Turfway.

Would Santa Anita, at least in the plans that you've heard

about it, you detail in here that Astronic group was not

interested in talking to you about this.

From your understanding of the plans, though, is this something

they would just set up in, you know, one of the areas of, of

Santa Anita and just give it a run?

Yeah, probably the third, the third floor grandstand I think

is where they would put it. And I don't see, I don't think

they would really do widespread like put it in Otbs and things

like that, at least not initially because, you know, do

you want to, to, to use a, a cliche, poke the bear?

And I think that's what they would be doing.

I another thing I heard is that they would just negotiate with

one tribe and but according to the tribal council, that's not

allowed. You know you had to deal with

all of them, so. Yeah, they're kind of like OPEC,

right? They kind of all set the the

prices for oil together, right? The the prices for gambling

together, right? Exactly, yeah, it's just a

matter of of of how they want to basically, if they do nothing,

then why even have this this group of people that are trying

to make it happen, I guess, you know, again, like I said at the

top of the show, it's it's a, there's a solution without a

plan, or at least a plan that they're willing to share.

So there you have it. Why do you think they're they're

not wanting to talk about this story?

We hear the rumors about, you know, a sale of Santa Anita.

We always hear the rumors of every track in America closing

at some point. But why?

Why do you think it is that the strata group doesn't want to be

on the record about this? Because they don't want to tip

their hand as to as to what they might do, even though there are

only just a few definable things they could do.

You know, stronic companies, Stronic Group has not been very

good when it comes to the planning and execution of, of

big projects like Golden Gate Fields.

When that closed, they were going to make an announcement on

like a Monday. I called them on a Sunday when

I'd found out about it. And then they, they, they had

made all these plans without talking to any of the stakes

holders like the CTT or the TOC. They didn't know about it.

You know how well they executed the plan to rebuild Pimlico?

Well, they did that by just turning it all over to the

state. They just don't have a history

of, of being able to pull off big decisions, big projects.

And now, you know, after they their master plan at Gulfstream

Park, you know, they're talking about decoupling as a form of,

you know, some might say that they're doing that just to, to

go into the casino business or to partner with someone that

that has, you know, the limited casino.

It's basically a slot casino and but you know, again, I, I mean

Astronic getting out of California and getting out of

Florida. Well, then they're getting out

of racing. I mean, they still have amtot

and and express bets and, and all these things.

But you know, they're, they're not doing anything to dissuade

us from the fact that they want to stick in, stick around for

the long haul. Yeah.

OK. All right.

That that's interesting. And the, the HHR question and

the decoupling question, they're both fascinating to me because I

think most people look at something like horse racing as

it should be able to be self-sustaining.

People should be able to push that through in the modern era.

That's simply not true. Is there a sentiment at all that

you've felt in California that people want to keep, you know,

the farms going, you know, the the support systems for these

things you've talked about in the past on this show, how

Astronic Group, for example, like you mentioned some of those

businesses with Express bet with Anton, etcetera, those feed, you

know, those are fed by other parts of their business, right,

Their own, they've kind of got their own ecosystem of

companies. Is there is there within

California a desire to see this keep on or is this, you know,

one of the things that we're seeing is look, in red states

like Iowa and Nebraska, there's an expansion of horse racing and

in California we're seeing less. Is it is it a political thing?

What does John say? No, it's not it's not it's well,

it's a political thing only then that's California is a different

state and the mores and values of people in these different

states is is very different in California is more animal

friendly and animal friendly, meaning they don't like to see

horse racing. And you know, despite what they

say, it's a, it's, it's really not this they, they, they throw

out this, you know, X number of billion dollar industry, It

really isn't on the consciousness of a lot of

people. Yes, the Central Valley had all

these farms, but now all those farms are going to go away.

And if there's no place to raise, to run cowbreads, why

would you, why would you breed them?

But the entire horse racing industry has what, about 1/3 of

the full crop? It did, you know 20-30 years

ago. Sure.

Yeah. No, the Cal bred part of this

conversation is really interesting, right, because so

much of the Santa Anita card eventually the Del Marquart is

built on those Cal bred races. And you know, I I've seen and

and look, we're doing this so Cal Friday show, SoCal Saturday

shows, excuse me here on the happy hour.

And it has been a little encouraging, John, to see so

many Northern California trainers stick it out by sending

horses down for these, you know, these specially made races that

frankly are drawing pretty good field sizes and all that kind of

stuff. But yeah, the the that, that

whole ecosystem of California racing obviously at at stake

here as it is in Florida. I mean, we're talking about to

what after Kentucky, I got to imagine what Florida and and and

California have the two most horses in it.

Yeah. Or New York might be in there,

but. Yeah, I mean, but top 4 for all

of them, yeah. Yes, yeah, absolutely.

And it's just, it's really sad. I mean, you have to head, in

order to breed horses, you have to have a place to run them.

And if, if Santa Anita were to go away and, and the reason is

as a horse racing business, it's not that profitable, they would

tell you they are losing money, but they are sitting on land.

That is, that is arguably, you know, I've been using a figure

of 1 billion and maybe I should say 2 billion now.

And it, it, there's some regulatory hurdles that have to

go through to, to actually convert it to, to real estate.

But, you know, it's, it's very, it's very doable.

I think so, yeah, it's just very difficult to have a rosy outlook

despite, you know, they've got these these new northern, what

we call Northern California races in Southern California.

And you're right, the field sizes are pretty good.

But is there enough to sustain a business that is, you know,

based on that starts with breeding and then goes from

there? And for trainers, it's just a

fact of life. It's more expensive to run in

Southern California than it is Northern California.

Yeah, is there because, you know, we're watching the, for

example, we're watching the Derby Trail in Southern

California. And by the way, it is

spectacular to have Bob Baffert back in the Derby Trail.

Thank God. It's just, it's just so much

more interesting when he's part of it.

But frankly, you know, journalism, the eclipse folks

out there, the McCarthy barn, of course, we're watching this

great product and, and, but is it is Southern California so

niche now, John, is it it like the ownership has to be a

Starlight type or or something like that where they're they're

in it with a singular purpose or is there still a place for, I

don't know the, the, the 20 and and $15,000 claimer type?

You know, I'm, I, I think it's a tough, it's a tough sell to, to

be able to do the lower ranks of the racing.

There are, you know, there are some trainers out there that are

really pretty smart as far as picking where they can take

their average claiming horse and and run them for a purse that

that they're probably gonna win because there's not a lot of

claimers. Now, one thing that has been

brought up, but everyone thinks it's a good idea but doesn't,

doesn't translate anything, is to develop a, a classification

system more attuned to what they do in Europe where essentially

they, they don't have the claiming races, they have

essentially allowance or they have claiming races where the

horse can't be claimed. I guess it's another way to put

it. They, they, they, and, and if

that's, if losing your horse is what keeps people from entering

their horse in a race, then maybe that's something that

needs to be looked at. If is it the, the, you know,

the, you've got your allowance optional claimer, but those are

that's sort of in the, in the middle tier, you know, at the

bottom you've got you're, you're claiming.

But let's say if you were to write the claiming races so that

you could keep your horse and there's a lot of trainers out

there with with barns of of less than a dozen, you know, they

can't afford to be losing horses and and owners don't want to

lose their horses. So if they were to rewrite the

classification system in something more attuned to

Europe, I think that would be a help as to getting the field

sizes and and field sizes up. That's an interesting, an

interesting take. I've seen a couple of proposals

for that and I'm not, I'm not out of just out of, I'm not

against it generally. It would be interesting 'cause

I, you know, for example, you know, down the street here at

Churchill Downs, watching Steve Asmussen have three horses leave

his bar to 2, jump in, in the same day.

You know, you have to have quite the operation to be able to do

that sort of thing, right. And it is just not something

that someone smaller can handle. You know, he's had thousands of

starters every year. He can do that kind of churn.

I'll use the word churn. I mean, it really is.

And it just so much more difficult for other kinds of

trainers. John Chervis with us, he's the

horse racing dude at the LA Times.

He's been there for a long time. What's your next non horse

racing project? What are you working on?

I know you were just at Daytona. I was just at Daytona, which

was. You like going to Daytona?

You know, I, I kind of do, but I left the house at 7:00 in the

morning and I, I got back to the house at 1:00 in the morning.

And that's a long day. And it just, you know, you have

you've got the three and a half hour rain delay and, and all of

that looking. Rain delay.

What is this? So the California racing is

that? Is that what that was?

Good job kid. Is OK.

I've got the Florida Derby in a couple of weeks, I've got the

Saint Anita Derby after that and then I've got the the the

Kentucky Derby and then the Preakness after that.

And then beyond that I don't know.

So I don't know what will my next non horse racing project is

going to be. Oh yeah, I do it.

It might be a women's basketball book if USC or UCLA wins the

national title. Very well.

Shifted to that and because they both got they both got a shot,

they both got a shot. They do the men not so much a.

Little less, that's right. Yeah.

And so I guess that would be, that's the next thing I'm

looking at. And then after that, you know,

the Lakers are an entirely different team now.

And if the Lakers could go all the way, they might have to put

together a book on that. The the Dodger season is

starting. It's, it's, it's, it's quite the

little, you know, wheel of a little hamster wheel that, that

you go on sometimes in Southern California sports.

Yeah, it's like plenty to cover at the Times, Yeah.

Yeah, we got 2 hockey teams, but I don't see either one of those

leading to a book. Quick wrap on the horse racing

stuff. First question, what do you

think the future of HHR is at a place like Santa Anita?

Will they just put it in and ask for forgiveness or do you think

they'll try to go through a legal route first?

Well. Or do nothing, I guess.

That's the third option, of course.

Well, that's and they're doing that very well right now.

Yes, they are. Is they could put it in and face

a lot of litigation, they could negotiate with the tribes.

And this is what I would do. What I would do would I would be

meeting with the tribes and I'll say, what do you want?

You know, your average take out on an HHR machine is about 8%,

which makes it a whole lot better than horse racing.

And let's say you give one point to the Breeders and you give two

to three points to the purses. That leaves, you know, somewhere

in the three to five range of for the rest.

And if and if Santa Anita has to say, hey, tribes, you can keep

all of that, then I don't see why a deal can't be done.

Then basically the tribes are expanding their business and

maybe losing 3 points. And they don't have to operate

anything. And they don't have to operate

it. Yeah, but I you know that that's

that's what I would do. That's what I would just give

them whatever. What, What do you want for us to

have HHR? And, and however they answer it,

you say, OK, we're gonna do it. But we also have to remember,

too, that the, the HHR money to the tribes is very

insignificant. We're not talking a lot of a lot

of money. They are.

They are in some ways like the the NRA, which will oppose any

kind of legislation because they don't want to create, as they

call it, the slippery slope. And what the tribes are really,

really want to do in California is Internet gambling.

That's what they want. And if they if they can get

that, well, then you know, then again, it's like, you know, how

much money do you want? How much money can you print?

So, but if you were to say the the other thing they could do is

they could pass some legislation in Sacramento that would allow

it and it would be just a couple of words.

It wouldn't take a big bill. It would just take an amendment

of a couple of words. But that would bring the ire of

the of the tribes. And let's also not forget that

we're going to be coming up that Gavin Newsom is term limited and

we've got a govern governor election.

And I think right now between Dems and Republicans, there's

about 13 candidates that will winnow down.

Among those is not Rob Bonta, who is the attorney general, who

basically is the guy that could say, yeah, it's OK, do it.

And, and then of course, it would follow with litigation,

but the litigation would be against the state, not against

the tracks. So, you know, don't

underestimate how much the governor's race is going to play

into this. And in what way.

I I don't know. And I and I guess if Kamala

Harris wants to run for governor, that might really

clear the field because I think I think a lot of people would

drop out. Is she still popular in

California? Are you popular enough to win

the governor's beat? I assume, yeah.

Yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah, yeah.

Certainly enough to win to win the governor's governor's spot

because she's got the best name recognition.

Oh, no question, that's why I asked.

Yeah, 'cause it purely comes down to popularity and not

anything else. If she wants to run, I agree.

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. And and also too in there is via

via Ragosa, the former mayor of Los Angeles, who is also very

much tied to a a crisis management firm called ACTEM,

which is ACT, which represents Santa Anita in this in Southern

California. So that that would and a very

good friend of Keith Brackpool, who's one of the people that is

negotiating. So if you're the horse racing

industry, you know that's who you're you're rooting for

because he might be the most sympathetic to it.

Do you remember him being in a Santa Anita Derby or anything

like that? No, yeah.

Cool, cool appearance from the LA mayor.

Yeah, there you go, man. If you had to guess what they

end up doing, which which? Which I I understand which route

John Sherva would take. Which one do you think they'll

take? I think they'll try to.

I I don't think they'll just put them in and turn them on.

OK, I I don't it doesn't seem like what it doesn't seem like

how they operate. I agree.

Yeah. No, and, and plus it's going to

lead to a nasty scene where the Sheriff's Department is going to

have to go and put chains on the, you know, if there's a

cease and desist. And then if Santa Anita doesn't

turn them off and keeps them on, then you get the padlocks and

the chains and it, it becomes a very messy story.

And the story that the that the business in California I don't

think can afford, I just don't think that they can, they can

afford that kind of publicity. What happens to the Golden Gate

Fields property you think? They'll go over to the state.

There's not a lot that they can do with it because of there's

height restrictions and there's it's it's and also river too.

It's over 2 towns. It's over Berkeley and Albany.

In Albany, right? Yeah.

Right. It's it's in two towns and is

that also? Like environmentally kind of

protected because it's next to the the water and all that.

Yes, yeah, it's right next to the water and there's, you know,

like there's just not a whole lot they can do with it.

So I think the best thing is to negotiate the best deal you can

with the state. State turns it into a park,

maybe has sells part of it as a campus for Berkeley or something

like that. If they need more space or need

need, whatever that certain. Thing here right?

Yes, exactly. Then it could go that but but

high rise condominiums overlooking the Bay?

I don't think so. That's not happening.

That's right. Yeah.

Not the California way. I agree.

Oh, man. All right.

Well, I I hope it it doesn't come down to that Breeders' Cup

back at Del Mar this year. Obviously Breeders' Cup at

Churchill not getting along. How important is having

Breeders' Cup in Southern California to the ecosystem

there? Well, it's, it's really

important, but I don't only because it, it reminds everybody

of the golden days of horse racing in Southern California.

I don't think we're going to see Santa Anita anytime soon because

it's it's future is such, you know, is, is, is so much in

flux. You know, I, I think the

Breeders Cup in Churchill, their disagreement, as I understand it

was mostly about Bob Baffert. Now if that has the, the

basically they were all set to have, was it last year's, Yeah,

last year's Breeders' Cup was set to be at Churchill Downs.

And the sticking point was Breeders' Cup said, well, if, if

he's eligible, Bob Baffert can, can run his horses there.

And Churchill said no, under no circumstances.

And so that now that has been resolved with, with, with

Churchill Downs and and Baffert. But that's why you ended up with

Delmar two in a row. You know, Keeneland is going to

get one of the next couple as soon as our construction is

done. Belmont is going to get one of

the next couple. So I, I don't know, I think, I

think they work it out and they have it.

They have it at Churchill, Keeneland and Belmont for the

next three years. Yeah, I think Belmont's

definitely going to get it with the renovation and then I'll be

looking. I'll be interested because

they're also renovating if Maryland gets one right, If they

go to Pimlico after it's done, that'll be an interesting sort

of thing on the on the scene. I don't see them pining to get

to Maryland with the Breeders Cup.

But you know, definitely Belmont.

I agree with you. And at some point, it's got to

get back. To.

Keeneland, but. They they got a long way to go

in, in Maryland. I mean, I don't I don't think

that I will still be working when they have the Preakness in

a reconstructed Pimlico race race course.

Oh wow. OK, I I could be wrong.

Now I'm also 69 too, so I don't have that many years anyway.

But but anyway, that's how I see it going and and whether Santa

Anita will ever get another breed.

This is kind of a bold prediction.

I don't think Santa Anita will ever get another Breeders' Cup

because I don't think that that they're they're going to be

around long enough to where the Breeders cup is going to say in

the next couple of years. Hope I'm wrong.

I really hope I'm wrong. But but if, if they don't fix

things fast and and then why they're not again, that's sort

of the discussion we've been having.

I just don't see much much hope for that.

As a matter of fact, in in a closed door meeting with senior

managers, Aidan Butler, this was before the California crown told

senior managers, hey, if if we don't turn this around, you

know, we're going to be gone in a couple years.

I asked Aidan about that. He's he didn't deny it.

He says, well, I, I didn't, you know, I didn't say quite that,

but yeah, right. But yeah, they know the

situation. They, they know how grave it is

and, and the Breeders Cup does too.

So you know, that last thing they want to do is to put a, a

Breeders' Cup in there and then the track announces it's going

to close like two years after that.

Then the track goes to hell because they're not making any

repairs, any adjustments, any of those sorts of things.

So that is my prediction that I sincerely hope is wrong.

Best Derby prospect in Southern California?

Is it in the Baffert barn or is it journalism?

You know, it's, it's really hard to not like journalism, despite

the name. I mean, the name alone is

attractive to me. But you know, he, he did

everything that he needed to Barnes that was going around

the, you know, the two turns for the first time and you know,

he's, he's just Barnes is just like 23rd on the list.

Now. Of course, you know, it's going

to change a lot. And we haven't even got to the

100 point races or the 50 point race this weekend in, in, in

Virginia. We think, I think today they,

they had today being thirsty. They ran the first race and then

cancelled the rest of the card. And I do not know why.

So everyone check your check your feeds for, you know, some

of the trades to find out why they didn't why they cancelled

almost all the card at Colonial Downs today.

Don't know the answer, but anyway, you you look down the

list and and you've got for Baffert, you've got Citizen

Bowl, you've got a getaway car who's I believe running this

weekend, Madiket Rd. yeah, and and Rodriguez.

And then outside the current top 20, you know, you've got you've

got barns and you've got gaming. He's got a lot of horses, but

the best one right now here in early March, is journalism.

OK, yeah, I was. I was fascinated to see him

sending getaway car out. I guess he was going to send

another starter, but just a fascinating one.

I'm not going to read into Juan Hernandez not traveling to

Richmond, VA, right? And that's not something I

should be reading into, right? No.

And, and let's face it, you know, you can't really tell

which Baffert horse is the best because he's got Juan Hernandez,

because the other ones have Flavian Pratt or, you know,

it's. Just I rat in this case, Yeah,

right. Yeah, I rat.

I mean, come on, it's just but but I do think that Juan

probably has his a horse, whoever his a horse is.

So, but, but you know, Bob's got a lot and, but all it takes is

like one horse and, and, and we've, you know, again, we've

got a long way to go. There's going to be little

fevers and little little bumps and bruises and all the rest of

that stuff that that's going to make the, the field smaller.

But I don't see Bob going with any more than three horses or at

least three horses in the Derby. Could be wrong.

But you know, his rule of thumb is if if my horse does not, it's

not win or finish second or a troubled third by the time it's

time to go to to Louisville, then he doesn't run them.

He doesn't do it. Yeah, yeah.

And we'll see that normal stockpile of of Baffert runners

in the Preakness, I'm sure by the time we get there as well.

Yeah, that Santa Anita Derby you mentioned, it does set up to be

just a spectacular race because we're going to get, you know,

we'll get Citizen Bowl back for that one.

We'll see journalism in that one.

I think both of, you know, after hearing you talk, neither of us

thinks Barnes has hit his ceiling by any stretch of the

imagination. So, yeah, that that race should

set up to be, you know, the Santa Anita Derbies we got used

to in the in the in the teens, right, 20 teens.

And, you know, with, with all the great runners out there with

Nyquist and with, you know, or he didn't run San Anita Derby,

but, you know, before that. And then of course, with with

Justify coming out of it as well.

But yeah, I'll be at the Wood Memorial that day.

John, have you been to the Wood Memorial before?

No, I've been to Aqueduct, but I've never been to the wood,

probably never will for the major reason that it's it's on

the same day as the. Sanity.

That's why I asked. Yeah.

And it's, it's, you know, it's what do you have to go back to

for the last winter was what Fusiachi Pegasus or something

was the last Wood winner to win the Derby.

Now, Bob has sent horses to New York before, and he may do that.

He rarely sends them to Gulfstream, but he you know,

he'll send some to Arkansas. Send it in Arkansas for sure.

Yeah, that's right. Yep.

And you know, this weekend we've got the the Jeff Ruby Stakes,

but that's on synthetic. So I think that's a toss as far

as, you know, sending a horse. Plus, you know, I think we're

already past the entries and, but, but he'll, you know, he'll

distribute his horses all around it.

It's interesting you mentioned Nyquist not running in the Santa

Anita Derby. And that was, that was a, a

crazy, crazy one because that goes back to when there was

$1,000,000 bonus for winning the, the Breeders Cup Juvenile

and, and the Florida Derby. And that's why they didn't run

him in San Anita. They sent him to Florida for

that $1,000,000 million dollar bonus.

And it was, it was like the race of the preseason, the pre Derby

time, because it was undefeated Nyquist against undefeated

Mohayman, who we frankly never really heard from again.

I mean, he ran a few more races, but he never won again.

Mohayman that is and and Nyquist came back and obviously won the

Derby and then lost a in the mud to exaggerate her.

And I, I remember asking Paul Redham, who's Nyquist owner, if

are you, would you rather have a Derby contender every year for

like 5 straight years or would you rather have like the Super

horse, the Derby horse, the Nyquist and then have nothing

for the next 4 years? And he said, I'd rather have the

Super horse. I'd rather have the I'd rather

have the Derby winner than be a Derby contender every year.

Yep, yeah. We interviewed Patrick Beauvais

at Pimlico last, I guess it's two years ago now after Mage won

the Derby, and you could tell it was definitely the same feeling

like, yeah, yeah, this, this sets us up.

And frankly, and you know, this especially for those operations

having, you know, a Nyquist or a Mage go off to the breeding

shed, it can pay for things for a very long time in your

operation. So yes, you'd rather have that

super horse than, you know, try to push a contender along every

year to the Derby. It makes sense to me at least.

Yeah. And you know what else, just

sort of thinking about it as we're talking, the Super horses

that we've encountered in the last, you know, decade have all

really turned out to be pretty damn good studs.

I mean, whether it's Nyquist, whether it's gun runner, Justify

to Justify seems to be a great turf sire and is is you know,

when you get these these super horses, they are turning out

pretty good progeny. So that's it is kind of fun to

watch to to watch it, you know, or an American Pharaoh.

What the heck? American Pharaoh?

Yeah. I love that we, yeah, we think

of his. His progeny is not great.

And they're still great. Yeah, right.

Just because we're putting them up next to justified.

His progeny has been absurd. Yeah.

Yeah, it is. And and you know, the Pharaohs

end up back with Bob usually, not always, but sometimes

there's an affinity. You know, I don't know how many

Nyquist, Doug O'Neill has, but you know, when you're going out

to the sales and stuff and, and you see the son or daughter of

a, of a horse that you trained, I think he might kick in a few

extra 10s or hundreds of thousands or whatever it costs,

you know, to get that horse. I interviewed Wayne Catalano of

all people, after he won his, I think it was either his 25

hundredth or three thousandth race at Ellis Park this past

summer. And I asked him about training

the the, the, you know, the children of the horses that he

trained previously. And he said it's one of the

great joys is to get, you know, the next version of that horse

because so many of them have the same mannerisms or the same, you

know, training issues or whatever it might be, you know,

that kind of stuff. If you said it's a real, it's an

interesting challenge because you have to stop yourself from

assuming they're like their mom or like their dad or whatever it

might be, you know, in those cases.

And it was fun to hear him, you know, sort of walk through that

and, you know, just kind of celebrate getting to train the

progeny like we just said of, of, of the, you know, those the

sires that were in his barn previously.

So, yeah, it's kind of a a fun exercise to watch.

Are they planning? I assume they're playing on the

California Crown again this year.

Yes. Yes, Yes, they are.

Yes. And, and this is, you know, a

year, John, and we talked about a lot on this show and and other

places. One of the best things about

2025 should be we're not there yet, but is the return of all

these very good, you know, Colts that we had as 3 year olds last

year, as 4 year olds this year. You know, many from that

Breeders' Cup Classic. And then you get a mind frame

and, you know, other horses as well, kind of sprinkled in some

newer shooters as well. I mean, that California Crown

could actually set up to be pretty awesome if trainers

decide to run that and then the Breeders Cup Classic, right?

Yeah. And remember, they have what is

that? They have like the $5,000,000

bonus for the Preakness, the California Crown, and the

Pegasus. That's.

Right. Yeah, technically, I guess I,

you know the well the Pegasus is done.

So again, you're and I think it's got to be in the same

calendar year. No, it would be just coming one

in January, right? You would win the Preakness. 1st

and then run the Preakness. Yeah, right.

And then and then the California Crown and then the Pegasus.

And you know, I asked Aidan if they actually put forth if, if

they actually paid the insurance, which I think is like

20% on a, on like a 5 million dollar $5,000,000 bonus.

And he, he didn't answer it, which means that he might have

rolled, they might have rolled the dice.

I don't know that. But but generally when you get

these big bonuses, that's the insurance premium is, is 20%.

So you know, for a $5,000,000 bonus, that's, it's a million.

So there you have it. Yeah, no, it's a lot of money

for sure. Last one we'll get out of here

on this very cheery note. They had an overpayment of

purses. Have they have they gotten back

to where they're even on that? Are they on in the process of

doing that? What what's your what's your

feeling on that? They are.

They're getting well. Basically how it works is the

track puts in the money that the TOC that the East Urban Owners

of California comes up short because they are technically in

charge of the purses. So what's happening is some of

the money they're getting back from Northern California they

are doing to repay the interest free loan from Santa Anita that

covered their purse deficit. So that's what's going on right

now. They're they're chipping away at

it a little bit, but but the the burden of the debt falls with

the TOC and the tracks just just so that they have racing have to

have to pay that money. Is there, has there been the

what's the best term here? Have they seen the benefit of

the the simulcast money from Northern California?

Is that something that anyone's mentioned to you?

Yeah, they are claiming a, an increase in handle from last

year that could be attributed to Northern California, but I

haven't really dug down into it. I mean, I, I, I frankly, you

know, if you get a release from Santa Anita that says they're

the world's safest track or that they're, you know, their, their

attendance and handle is up and stuff like that, you got to

check it. You just got to check it.

And I have not checked the handle.

I've had some people that have checked it and said, yeah, you

know, they're not doing as they're not doing quite the

numbers they say they're not doing.

But you know, it's, you can parse the, the figures however

you want. I mean, what is it right now

the, the government is including and not including federal

spending and in some kind of inflation statistic or something

like that? You know, you, you can, you can

write the rules to make the results come out however you

want. And and I, I so that's why I

like to do independent checking on these sorts of things.

Well, hopefully they're not lying about that.

But I, I will admit, sometimes I read those releases, John and I

and I, they look like the Flyers for a home sale.

OK, we put, we put new Windows in, you know, there's a new roof

on this house. It really once in a while it

reads like that. And, and so hopefully that's not

what it is, but rather just the truth.

And that actually handles up attendance is up all those

things. I mean, they did publish a

number about Breeders' Cup attendants, and you and I were

there, and there were swaths of empty sections that tended me

the last time. So yeah, it's it's it's.

It's own thing for sure. It takes me back to as far as

real. You mentioned real estate way

back in the 1980's, the early 1980s as sort of a high side

hustle while working at the Times.

I would do these real estate sections for the for the Times,

which was basically press releases from the Realtors about

all these houses they're selling.

And all I had to do was like lay it out and put like a headline

or choose a picture or something for it.

And the joke was that every headline has to include the

words highlight, showcase features, You know, because

that's, you know, that's what they want in real estate.

Yeah, it's a good stuff, isn't it?

I it's a good stuff for sure. All right, well, he's John

Sherva at J Sherva on the socials.

But of course, LA Times, just go ahead and Google horse racing

and LA Times for all of his coverage.

And frankly, if you look up John, you're going to get list

of people, you're going to get Daytona 500 coverage whether you

want it or not. Rain delays.

Be damned. John Sheriff was covering it.

It's good stuff. I actually, I've, I've thought

about that, John, like what I would want to cover if it wasn't

a horse racing thing. You know, you and I are at

organizations that cover lots of different things and you're an

Olympics guy. I know you really, you really

care about that coverage. It's something you, you know,

you take a lot of pride in. I, I was thinking about it and

we, we couldn't get the NFL to give us a table at the combine

this year. And that's when I knew I was

very low on the totem. Oh, OK, that would have been

your radiation. Only, yeah, for our radio

station that's only two hours from here.

So I could have just woken up and gone to the combine, you

know, that kind of thing. And NFL was like, yeah, we

don't. We don't.

You're not in an NFL city. You don't get to have a table.

And even though we play all the Ravens games and all of the

Colts games on our stations, But it is what it is.

But yeah, I I think the combine is something I could do because

I've watched the OBS sales and I feel like the combine's not very

different. Yeah, no, I, I think you're

right. You know, the, the, the OBS is

literally an hour and a half hour and 45 minutes from from

where I live up in Ocala. And you know, I, I should

probably get up there just to, to see it.

But it might be one of those things that my first my and I

have been to horse sales before and they happen fast.

You know, it's it's not you watch these auctions on TV, you

know, in scripted dramas and you know, they all this bidding

against that doesn't really happen that way in real life.

You know, it's over fast. It's over fast so.

We have a car auction. The R&M folks come to Louisville

every year, and I think everyone assumes it takes like 3 hours to

sell 20 cars and they sell, they sell 50 cars in in 90 minutes or

something. You know, they're just rolling

through and the bidding's very quick and all those sorts of

things. So yeah, yeah, the horse sales

are not terribly different. Walk around, everybody's done

their research prior to, you know, you're not seeing

something in the sales ring that's going to go, you know

what I was thinking 1,000,000, but boy, that's a 1 1/2 now that

I've seen this horse looking perfect with someone in a Blazer

walking it around. Yeah, that's exactly right.

So, all right, John. Well, enjoy.

You know, it is 80° here. I assume it'll freeze at some

point before the Derby. But enjoy the weather down

there. I haven't asked you about your

dog, and I haven't heard about your dog.

I'm always scared. Have nice people like you, John,

about very old dogs. It's it's a thing that I always

worry about. But how is our guy G?

How's grip doing? He is doing well.

He's actually sitting outside with my wife.

We actually tried to get him because he was in like a a bark

fest this morning. So Lynn took him outside while I

was doing the pod and but he's he's doing well.

He's turned 16 in May and we just hope to have him as long as

we can. There you go.

All right, well, he's John Serva.

Los Angeles Times, of course. Just Google LA Times and horse

racing and you can find him there.

John, I will see you in a couple weeks.

My friend will have some. Well, you'll have a Chardonnay

and I'll watch you have one, and then we'll call it a we'll call

it a friendship. All right.

There you go, good to be. On the show.

Hey, thank you for being back. He's John Serva, our most common

guest here on the Horse Racing Happy Hour.

That is our episode for this week.

We thank John for hanging out and we thank you all for

listening. We'll be back next week.

We start those hundred point preps.

We'll have a show live from Turfway ahead of the Jeff Ruby

Stakes. And of course, we'll preview all

of the Louisiana Derby entries as well.

Lou, your bell, John, sure. Before the Horse Racing Happy

Hour and the LA Times. We'll see you next week.