Arkansas Derby 2025 | Matt Dinerman

They March 26th, a Wednesday edition of the Horse Racing

Happy Hour hanging out with Matt Dinnerman.

My name, it is Louis Rabo. It is Arkansas Derby week and of

course the second week of all of the 100 point Derby preps

happening. We were at the Ruby last week.

Of course we also saw on the same day the Louisiana Derby,

but we invite Matt and he'll be on the call for the Grade 1

Arkansas Derby this Saturday. Do you still get like when you

hear it, you're going to be calling a grade one?

Do you still? Does it still do something to

you? It makes me really excited, I

can tell you that. Yeah, definitely the juices get

flowing when we're ready to call on these big days.

And one good thing about calling big days is that there are a lot

of good races. So if there's any sort of nerves

whatsoever about the big race, you don't really have time to

think about it because you're worried about everything else

before the big race. So it's it's just a a fun, fun

day when you're the announcer calling all these fun races.

But I'm stressed too. I can't lie about that either.

I'm sure that's true. Matt Dennerman with us, he's

from Oakland Park of the calling the races there on Saturday.

And Speaking of calling races, I wanted to ask about Trevor

Denman. We haven't spoken since he

announced his retirement from calling races the last four

decades at Del Mar. And and Matt, I know all of us

who, who do some kind of, you know, crowd facing work like you

and I do have influences on what we've done.

And I don't know anyone in my professional career, Matt, who's

more affected by one person than you.

With Trevor Denman, frankly, I know how important he was to you

growing up in the San Diego area, going to Del Mar, hearing

him call races, etcetera. I know he became a friend as

well. Just reflections on Trevor and

his his influence on you. Obviously I, as you mentioned to

a big influence on my career, I worked in the press box at

Delmar just handing writers past performances information.

You saw me in there, Louis, I'm sure years ago.

And you know, part of that was helping Trevor out with some

things. And when I was practicing

calling races, Trevor was my mentor there at Delmar.

I've, I have many mentors in the race calling game, but Trevor

was certainly one of the most influential and he just gave so

much great advice and very kind, gentle guy, just his

personality, very sweet person when you get to know him.

And he, I mean, first of all, he changed the game of race calling

for North American racing. It was about position in the

beginning. For a long time it was about

position, you know, horse so and so is first, blah blah blah is

second, yada yada yada. 3rd. And Trevor really changed it to

describing more how horses are moving, what jockeys are doing,

the whole story and really getting into the horsemanship

side of it. I remember one time there was a

horse who bolted and in the call he was explaining how both

jockey was holding the reins to keep the horse straight.

I mean that never happened back in the old days of just calling

races. We just oh so and so is first so

and so, second, so third. So he changed the game in that

respect and he gave me a lot of great advice.

And not just about race calling. I mean we talked about anything

from salaries and pay in, in the announcing world to, you know,

dealing with management figures and when to pick your spots if

you have questions or, or, or any concerns.

So he's been very influential in my career and he will be greatly

missed. I grew up listening to him.

So I'm sure Larry Comas, who's going to Del Mar, he's going to

do a phenomenal job, but it's not going to be the same without

Trevor. And that's not a knock on Larry.

That's just how it is. No, I don't think he even, I

don't think Larry would take that as a knock at all.

I think he gets it. Yeah, it there's something about

Trevor especially, and I know it comes with experience and all

those things, but some of his very best calls are where he saw

what was going to happen before everyone else did, right?

And that's really where I think he stands out.

And there are other callers for sure who do see the development

of races, frankly. A guy kind of locally, John

Dooley, I think is one of those guys for sure does a great job

on north of us in Indianapolis, but also of course at

fairgrounds in the winter. And he's one of those guys that

has that. Of course we're spoiled in town

here. We've got Travis down the street

at Churchill as well. But yeah, just the, I remember

hearing Trevor's calls, you know, when I first got into

horse racing 1516 years ago and just how prophetic so many of

his calls were, right? Just that, you know, and

obviously the blame and Zenyatta call and all those kinds of

things and just all the great stuff there as well.

But yeah, I mean, it'll be different.

It'll be different to hear Del Bar and just not, you know, when

Larry filled in before it was. Oh, OK, we know this is just for

one season, but now it's going to be a little bit more of that

than anything else. Is Delmar still a dream for you?

Have you? I mean, is that still something

you allow yourself to think out or have you, you know, you've

got, you've got such a good gig now between Oak Lawn and

Monmouth, man. I I have two great gigs.

I mean, Oaklawn is fantastic. I I've spoken about it, it's so

many times. There's only so much more I can

say. Just a fantastic place.

And Monmouth is just boy, what a beautiful track, what a fun to

be family friendly. So with that in mind, I'm just

riding the wave. I'm having fun.

I love where I'm at. And I was always taught that,

hey, if you're really, truly happy, it's going to be in the

moment, so. Yeah, I, I good stuff, man.

It's been, it's been fun watching your career.

I was, I was thinking about it when I was booking you for for

today, you were one of the first guys to ever come on the happy

hour and you would do it from Golden Gate Fields.

Of course, we would talk $50,000 stakes and that kind of stuff.

And so it has been, it's been great watching you grow up in

the industry as well. But let's talk about Oak Lawn

Saturday, man. Describe to people what Arkansas

Derby Day is like now that you've been there.

I know you know the average Saturday at Oak Lawn is just a a

smash of people, which is of course, one of the great things

about living in Hot Springs is how much people love not just

horse racing, but being at the track, right?

They really want to be there to take it all in as well.

How crazy is Arkansas Derby Day? It's a zoo, but in a very

positive way. It's just.

I hear ya. Obviously when you go to Hot

Springs, you come here to Hot Springs, there's a lot of nature

hiking trails and the lake here during the summer is very

popular. But during the racing season in

the winter and early spring, especially on the weekends,

people just flock to the racetrack and they absolutely

love it. They celebrate it.

There's a huge difference. When I come here versus other

places. People talk about it.

I remember like one of the first dinners I ever went to during

the racing season last year, my waiter was telling me about the

Pick 5 where he hit four or five.

I mean, it's just one of those places that wouldn't happen in

California or a lot of other places that never happened when

I was there. So it's just a racing town.

And I was talking to Richard Migliore, who's here for

America's Day at the races this season, and he relayed to me

this does have a Saratoga feel to it.

And obviously Richie's from New York.

He's been to Saratoga for many decades and he is somebody who

knows what Saratoga is like. He says this is just like

Saratoga. So it's just a great place to be

and people are having fun and celebrating racing.

And the racing product's been terrific the last quite a few

years and and we're looking to continue that.

You know, I, I recently read a police at at bloodhorse.com

about your show pools on track and how attractive those are as

wagers for, you know, the common fan.

And I think we get so stuck, Matt, especially on social

media, different things. Oh, pick six and oh, I got to

hit this mandatory and all this guys.

There's nothing wrong with a little, you know, show parlay,

right? I mean, there's nothing wrong

with playing that kind of bet and.

That kind of stuff. It is fun.

I'm with you. Yeah.

Just trying to hit the board. Every race is his own challenge

for sure. Matt Dinerman with us at three

Colts handicap on the Social City called the races at Oaklawn

Park Wanted to talk about a later part of the the late pick

4 but the. You know, the three stakes races

in here, Matt, the American Pharaoh, a new a stakes race

here. You got to be happy about that.

The crowd that it drew to, some nice horses in here and frankly

a full field of 10. We're very pleased about this

race. Some very good horses and one

cool thing about a race like this is that you get horses here

that have a lot of ability, but they have not won a sweepstakes

in a certain amount of time, so they are eligible for it.

A horse like Ben Dude, who's great at stakes place, you know,

Grade 2 plays. Bishops Bay ran against

Archangelo last year, but he has yet to win a stake.

May Cox Bay grade three place. You get a lot of these horses.

Maybe they're not grade one horses, but they're horses that

are knocking on the door for a Stakes win and they're all

coming together to try to get that Stakes 1.

Yeah, like like a liberal arts in here that we've seen all over

the place in his in his three-year old career.

Trying to qualify for the Derby is another one in here at 12:50

on a day like this that you could really try to find some

value. Obviously Otto Marie ran in the

Derby last year. Or do you have a, do you have a

favorite in this race, Matt? Well, I haven't made a top pick

officially yet, but I'm looking towards Bishop's Bay, a very

consistent force. That one for fun last time out

in the second level allowance race.

I think he's going in the right direction.

I actually watched his workout. You can go to oakland.com back

slash racing, back slash workouts, and this year we're

teaming up with Bruno Di Julio's team that brings a works from

Oakland Park. And also they have him from

Keeneland Turfway and Fairgrounds.

And he worked at the fairgrounds with Muhima, who's on the

Kentucky Oaks Trail and he absolutely dusted her that

morning. So he's a good horse.

He's working good. I think Brad Cox, from what I

was told through the Grapevine, was maybe thinking about running

this horse in a graded state, but was talked into running into

this race, a little bit of hustling going on from the

racing office. So that's a good thing to see a

good horse like him coming here and I, I think this horse is a

very nice horse and I think I'll run well.

Bishop Spay breaks from the inside.

Flavian Pratt gets them out there.

He'll be in town for the races this weekend.

Yeah, you mentioned like a Ben Dugan might be frankly even like

a Magic Tap, who, you know, wasn't great in the Oaklawn

Handicap, but this is a serious step down from that.

That horse could be part of the equation as well.

Does have a win over the track as well.

Just a fun, fun first rendition of the American Pharaoh there.

Of course, the winner of the 2015 Grade 1 Arkansas Derby that

you're on his way to the Triple Clown.

The fantasy is the next race. Kind of want to go through kind

of horse by horse with you here. Simply joking is going to get

favoritism for Wit Beckman, who chose to run her up here rather

than in that Fairgrounds Oaks last weekend as well.

Anything to read into Whit Beckman deciding up here?

Or do you think might be a little persuasion there as well?

Well, he's got 3 runners on the Oaks Trail, right?

And I think that he's just trying to separate them.

That's plain and simple. Sort of like a Bob Baffert type

of deal when you got all these horses and there's a lot of

money to be made out there and points to be earned and you

know, running your horses all against each other, at the end

of the day, somebody's going to be out of luck because the best

third and maybe they need more points.

So I don't see this as an issue at all.

I see this is a good thing. In fact, if you're running for a

$750,000 purse, which is the biggest purse that we've seen

for a Kentucky Oaks prep, then you ought to bring a good horse.

So 2 for two. I know he thinks a lot of her.

His quotes in the Daily Racing Form indicate that he thinks

she's a very classy Philly. I'm going to try to beat her on

the win end. Not saying she can't win, of

course she could. She's 2 for two.

But this is a step up in class and this is going to be a good

test for, especially because we haven't seen her in a few months

as well. So she needs to be fit and ready

here. We heard the name Lemon Muffin

last year on the Oaks Trail at Oaklawn.

Any chance that Wayne Lucas with Princess Aaliyah and Nick Juarez

here can jump up and kind of recreate some magic from last

year? Well, I'll say this, she does

need to step up to win, but I like your last race.

It was good. It was her best race yet and I

actually watched her workout. I've been following all the

workouts and logging them on my computer, so I have a little

report sheet here. And she seemed to look a little

bit better this morning, this past morning and her last

workout. So maybe the light bulbs turned

on a little bit. I lean elsewhere.

I just don't know if she's fast enough, but she's got the

breeding. She's actually the purchase for

1.2 million and why she was or is a granddaughter to the great

winning colors. So there's pedigree there.

So she has, of course, earned a chance, as Lucas would say, Mr.

Dewayne Lucas, he said it. She's earned a chance.

She ran good. She's getting better, good

pedigree it. Let's try to get her a graded

stakes placing at the very, very least.

So I'm going to try to beat her on the win, but I think she's OK

and she's getting better. Yeah, now it's an interesting

field too, quiet side as you mentioned, coming out of that

honeybee as well. How good was that honeybee you

think this year? I thought it was solid, very,

very solid. I think I I was not on quiet

side that day. I thought that she needed to

prove more even though she had a bad trip.

Two starts to go, of course, quiet side 1, the honeybee.

And I just thought she sort of had a grinding running style and

maybe somebody could beat her. I actually think 13 GS are 5G's.

I'm sorry, there's a horse running game.

There's a horse running name. 13 G's, a first time starter on the

program, 5G's. I think she's pretty good for

George Weaver. I thought she ran really well.

I'll be in on a speed bias track, but I think she's a

decent Philly. We're going to see her in the

Ashland. I think she could win that, so I

think it was a very strong race. OK, yeah, quiet side, of course.

The winner of that honeybee ran second in the Martha Washington

behind Take Charge Milady, who was up the track in the

honeybee. They switch spots there.

We'll see if they swap spots again.

Odd. Saturday in the Fantasy, that

$750,000 going a mile and a 16th for the Phillies.

The boys are running for a million and a half in the Grade

1 Arkansas Derby. We're going a mile and an eighth

here on the Oak Lawn. Dirt there, man.

It has been recently, Matt, a very good predictor for success

in the Derby between a couple of horses as well.

I don't know that I saw the Derby winner this past Saturday.

I don't think I did. Matt, do you think there's a a

decent chance that the winner is running on this coming Saturday

weather in Florida at your place?

I think there's a decent chance, decent chance.

I think journalism and sovereignty are the two horses

at the top of the class right now, and everybody has to prove

otherwise. I love full battle.

I think he's a cool horse. I haven't picked them yet in a

race, so a lot of people are knocking me for that.

It's not that I don't like Cold Battle.

He's a very cool horse. Trust me.

I would love to see it happen. But I think.

Journalism and sovereignty right now seem to be the top two in

the class, and others have to prove otherwise.

And cold battles right there in the top three to five South.

I think there's a good chance I'm a big sovereignty fan.

I think this horse is going to love distance.

I think he's going to get better.

I don't think he was cranked up to win last time I.

Agree with Mike. To win, and he did, so I think

there's a lot of upside with him, so I think there's a decent

chance. All right, well, let's get to

the horses in your race. Baraton's Baytown is the one

horse here. Best win was a $40,000 claimer

in the mud at Laurel. We are looking at potentially

wet conditions at Oaklawn. Does that change drastically how

you look at the race, Matt, or do you think best horses are

going to win on regardless conditions at Oakland?

Well, the problem is some of these horses haven't run in the

mud, so it's hard to predict. Some have, I mean, whole battle

actually want to Sprint in the mud and we know he will run on

that surface. But there are others like

Cornucopian, I mean, who knows? We there's just no way to know

until they do it. So I have a hard time figuring

out how I would how change handicap and given that I don't

have any variables to look at to try to predict other than the.

Pedagogy. And gave you the Tomlinson

numbers. So yeah, I'm, I'm just looking

at it the same. And if I do like a horse that

hasn't run in the mud, I'm going to cross my fingers and hope

that they enjoy it. Yeah, so Brayertown's Baytown is

2 for two white lifetime on the wet go by sense though, that

would be a horse you would use underneath alongside a horse

like First Division. That horse has been running at

at Oakland. What can you tell him?

Tell us about him and do you think he's got a shot?

At least he'll pick up some Derby points here.

Well, I don't think he has much of a shot at all.

So I mean he ran in the rabble. He was no match.

I mean this horse would be a total surprise.

We have seen crazier things happen.

I mean, I always say Louis, if our con going back to him, if he

can win the Breeders Cup Classic at over 101, anybody can win any

race. You just never know.

But I'm not thinking this is the horse.

Bears top Baytown, No. How about First Division,

though? That you have seen a couple of

times and frankly has never been worse than third.

No, and he's got some ability for sure.

He's hung in his last two races, but he also hasn't broken

particularly good. He's had to use a lot of energy

to get towards the lead, turning into the stretch.

He's a horse that has a good kick.

He's actually 1/2 sibling to two steaks winners here at Oaklawn

Park and he was purchased I think for just 15,000.

So that's pretty crazy because he actually has very good

pedigree. If you take a look at the bottom

side, he's 1/2 sibling to ice cold and another Philly of Kenny

Mcpeak's. The name is, I'm blanking on it

right now, but she won a steak earlier this year at Oaklawn

Park. And he's, he can run.

But The thing is he's just hasn't quite figured everything

out. He hasn't broken that slow and

he's hung a little bit in these races.

I'm hoping that he breaks. That's the first thing he needs

to break out of the gate. I don't think the distance will

be a problem for him. He's sort of in the second

flight of horses, but like you said, he's always around.

He's more of an underneath horse for me, but I think he's also

one of these horses that could run to his company and at a big

price, maybe run third or even 2nd or 4th underneath an exotic.

So I think he'd be a solid user really.

Publisher looks a lot like Tis Tastic did before the Louisiana

Derby last week for Steve Asmussen.

Flavia Pratt gets them out again here and this is a horse they're

throwing the blinkers on Matt, and I imagine it's because of

that dreadful start last time. If the horse is more keyed in,

he's probably picking up many more Derby points and finishing

fourth. Are you of the opinion that with

a better start he'll be able to get there or with the added

distance? Or is he one that's just a

little bit below here? Well, I think he's a little bit

below OK. His two back effort in the

Southwest, that was a disaster of a stretch.

I mean, like the epitome of a disaster.

If you watch the race, he got blocked by a horse who was

weakening. Coincidentally, it was American

Promise and won the Virginia Derby.

He made a really early move, American Promise.

Then he got tired back right up into publisher, clipped heels,

almost hit the rail. He was lucky he didn't fall down

and it was just a disaster. He wasn't going to win I don't

think, but he would have been a lot closer.

And then last time out, even though it says in the comment

lines he got a little bit tight in a stage of the race, I don't

think he was finishing any better than 4th.

But he ran on and he is one that will probably appreciate another

16th of a mile. I agree.

I I just think this is a an odd spot because yeah, you see

maidens enter Derby points races, stakes once, maybe twice.

They don't do it 3 many times in a row, so this is an interesting

spot. He's very talented.

This horse actually was out working Tis Tastic here at

Oaklawn in the morning and Tis Tastic's not a great morning

horse really. He's never been very impressive

from what I've been told, and the the videos indicate that as

well. But this horse does have talent.

He's just an unlucky horse to be a maiden at this point in his

career, when really he shouldn't.

So I don't know if this is an owner decision to run him in

this race. I don't know if Steve, for

whatever reason, he just has faith.

This horse is a really nice horse.

I I have no idea, but he does have ability and the blinkers

on, as you mentioned is interesting.

I don't know if they want him to show a little more natural

speed. I don't know if it's a focus

issue. I I just don't know.

There's a lot of questions with this horse and I'm I can't

really put the puzzle pieces together.

I think that's why he's a maiden with us here.

How the horse racing happy hour Lou bro hanging out with you.

It is Wednesday, March 26th, which means we are deep in the

100 point preps. We're talking to Arkansas Derby

with Matt best friend Rocket will break from the four.

You saw this horse win a $200 two $100,000 optional claimer

because only Oaklawn could have a $200,000 optional claimer and

this one comes out of the Russell barn into the Lucas barn

here. This is that Juarez and Lucas

combination is this one. That's a threat to pick up some

Derby points here again, you finished second.

You're in the Derby. Well, I watched his last race.

Obviously. I called it duh that.

That's probably the most duh statement I've ever seen on on.

AI was watching while I called it yeah, I didn't just blindly

call the race Yeah right for. Sure.

I thought he was all out to win. I mean, he lost the lead at the

16th bowl, but but he is a Carlin.

He's a type of horse that's not very flashy necessarily.

I think he was flashy with the Laura Park wins when he was in

Brittany Russell's barn because I think he was just a better

horse than these horses at Laurel and now he's really

facing some decent company. But he out finished First

Division. First Division looked like he

was going to run by this horse and he might have had a head in

front late. It was a three horse scrambled

to the finish and this horse between horses out finished all

of them. It was a good win.

I liked it because he showed grit.

He could have backed out. He could have said, I've had

enough, but he kept on. I wonder was he waiting on

horses or was he all out to win? I think he was all out to win

personally, but I also think he's a horse that another one

that will probably like added ground.

If you look at his pedigree, he's not one that's very sprinty

at all. He's he's sort of route like he

runs like a router. So I, I'm not saying the Sky's

the limit necessarily, but I would also say that he is one

that I, I sort of look at him like a First Division.

I don't think he'll win, but he probably will be around if he

can take a step forward or he's one of these horses that just,

you know, he's just going to keep grinding along.

Yeah. A $575,000 purchase last year by

the Fletcher Racing folks. The Five is Speed King and this

is the one morning line. I don't understand. 15 to one on

the Southwest winner. Yes, he wasn't great last out in

the rebel map, but if we get that form from 2 back, he's

going to be part of the equation here.

Bullet work the other day. Am I missing something or is

this just a horse? We assume that what we saw in

The Rebel is more emblematic than what we saw in the

Southwest. Well, he's a good workhorse.

So first and foremost know that very, very good workhorse in the

morning. They've always liked this horse.

I'd heard through the Grapevine they knew this horse was good

and they went to the windows at 20 to one first out.

They knew this horse could run his two back effort in the

Southwest AI thought was better than Look because he got a

pretty easy lead early. But then at the half mile pole,

American promised the same race. They talked about Publisher

getting in trouble. He made this very early move

after Speed King and Speed King and American Promise hooked up

and separated about 6-7 lengths from the rest of the field.

And I thought Speed King had the right to get tired and he just

kept going. So I thought it was a better

than Looked effort from him. They were thinking about maybe

trying to raid him that day, but he naturally just put himself

from the lead. Last time out.

The pace was a lot quicker in the Rebel.

He tried to stock outside. I thought he had no excuses.

I thought he stocked fine. He was pulling just a tad in the

very early stages of Rafael Bejarano, asking him to relax,

but really took a hold of the bit and then just got in a good

rhythm. I thought there were no excuses.

Does he need the lead well off that last race?

It appears he does, but I think he relaxed fine.

So it was a bit of a head scratcher for me.

I mean, he he was Wheeling back in four weeks.

So we had time off the last run there in the Southwest to where

I wouldn't think the bounce theory would be in play here.

It was a bit of a head scratcher, just did not run

well. So there's still questions with

him. I'm going to try to beat him in

this race, but he is a very important horse because he will

affect the pace scenario. Really, him and Cornucopian are

the two horses that have the most speed, and what Speed King

decides to do is going to affect the entire race shape on the

pace scenario front. So if he tries to stock

Cornucopian, if Cornucopian is just naturally quicker,

Cornucopian is going to get a clear lead.

If they hook up, that's going to be very interesting.

Maybe Speed King goes to the lead and Cornucopian outside

stocks and lays right on his flank.

That will be interesting. So whatever Speed King does is

going to affect the race shape here.

I'm interested too, because I think with him, if it rains Matt

and we do have a muddy track situation, his works, they don't

change. He's good when it's fast, he's

good when it's muddy. Whatever.

If Speed King's over 12:50 and it's muddy, I'm probably going

to just put a little something on him at that point.

I think. I think that makes a lot of

sense. Sandman is the 6th horse here.

We saw him last third place by only about a length and a half

in that rebel before that second in the Southwest, a move to Jose

Ortiz away from Christian Torres, which I thought was

interesting here. What do you make of the of Jose

getting them out here from our Cassie?

Well, I respect Jose Ortiz is a jockey, obviously he's a

terrific jockey. But I am not a believer in all

these jocks changes being a huge deal.

Is horse racing not jockey racing?

Right there, man. Exactly.

And I'm not saying that, you know, again, this isn't a knock

on Jose Ortiz by any means. I just, I think they're all,

let's just say this, I think there are a lot of owners that

have a lot to say about jockey's rides and betters that have a

lot to say about jockey's rides. And this is a game of opinions,

but you have to remember last year Christian Torres was aboard

Timberlake and he won the Rebel on Timberlake and he got yanked

off for no good reason whatsoever.

I'm just going to be flat. I mean, there was no reason to

do that. Timberlake never won a race ever

again. It made absolutely no difference

with a jockey change. In fact, he got a bad ride in

the Arkansas Derby. He did not get a good trip with

a new jockey. So I am critical of this move.

I don't I I know people have not Christian online for the ride on

Sandman. And in my opinion, there's no

need for it there. He hasn't done anything wrong at

all. I'm taking a big stand on your

on your show here a little. I'm just being flat out honest.

I think it's ridiculous to think that he's done anything wrong.

And hey, they're trying something new.

They wanted to have the best chance to win these big races.

And if they feel that somebody else is the key to improving a

horse, that's on the owner's trainer, whoever made the

decision. But I don't think if this horse

wins this race, it's going to be because of a jockey change.

I think it's because he's a horse that wants ground more

ground. He gets the right set up and

he's a very good horse. But I'm not, I'm not necessarily

sitting here thinking that this jockey change is going to change

my opinion on anything about this horse.

Sandman, the most expensive purchase in here by 100 grand,

$1.2 million purchase last March at the Obs sale there.

Son of Tappet distorted humor, Mayor, I assume you assume like

I do. He's got a shot here, yes.

Yeah, absolutely. And of course there are two

rules of thought here. I was talking saying the same

exact thing on on the DRF show with Gino Bicola yesterday.

The first rule of thought will keep the glass half full.

He's a horse that has really good pedigree.

He obviously has more in the tank.

It appears he has more in the tank.

I should say a little bit green, still learning things.

He hasn't had a great trip. Two starts to go in the

Southwest. That was a phenomenal effort

from him. But he also got the right set up

in the second part of the race. The internal fractions got

pretty quick and last time out yes he was running on a speed

bias track in the rebel, but he also got a pace to run into and

he closed into it. He wants more ground yes he's

Got Talent. The glass half negative approach

here glass half empty. I should say glass half empty

negative approach is is he like a Tacitus where just he finds

trouble? He people keep chasing him and

he just keeps picking up awards and maybe a horse gets a jump on

him and he doesn't win all these things to take into play.

I think he's going to love more ground.

I think he's a legit classic distance type of horse.

If there was a future Ben in the Belmont Stakes, I would put

money on him. I think this horse will run all

day in races where there are pace like the Kentucky Derby.

I think he will run on. But at the same time, the

questions with him and I would say if he gets a good trip this

race and doesn't win, depending on how he runs, there will still

be people playing him the Kentucky Derby because they're

going to want another furlong. But that doesn't mean he's going

to win their tip. Right, Boday's magic is a son of

good magic. Will be in the seventh for

Laurent Machado and Ben Colebrook.

We last saw this one in the southwest up the track, but did

win in the mud before that. Is this a horse?

Kind of a outside chance? 20 to one, Maybe take a shot

here. He was very green when he won

his allowance race here a couple starts ago and then he ran in

the Southwest and just didn't do much.

So he's one that I think we'll need to improve.

Yeah, if he does get back here, he does have a win over the

Churchill Downs. Two turn dirt surface in a

maiden special at the highest level at Churchill.

Cole Battle. The guy who's done everything,

frankly, has won his last four, all of them in stakes.

Whether it be a Delta Downs, Remington or at your place at

Oaklawn. Seems to not matter.

Bred this one for two grand. I love these kinds of stories.

Lonnie Briley, an awesome story as well.

The interviews have been spectacular with him.

I think a sentimental favorite here, Matt, but also one that

could really win. He's got the ability.

Well, you look at him in the mornings and he looks like just

an average claimer going around there.

But he knows, first of all, he knows the difference between the

morning and the afternoon, which is pretty cool.

He takes care of himself. He keeps himself fit.

I will say the Lonnie Briley, Juan Vargas, they've done as

good of a job as any top human connection would do.

I think they've done a terrific job with this horse.

I think he will show up again because he just always shows up.

He, I mean, is he a mile and a quarter horse?

I do question that. I wonder if he's maybe mile,

mile and a 16th mile and an eighth.

He was breathing pretty hard last time.

He had to run very hard last time to win the Rebel.

But if he runs back to that, even then he's going to be

around I would think. I don't see any reason why this

horse won't run a good race on Saturday.

Needs to be respected. Major player always shows up.

No reason for me to indicate that he won't show up again.

Cornucopian comes in. The grand dilemma is does Bob

Baffert know what he's doing or not?

I'm kidding. That's not the The grand dilemma

is can we go from six furlongs to 9 furlongs is the real

dilemma here, and I get it. Interesting though, so effort

using Oaklawn for the maiden run as well to get pretty much

foreshadowing that if the horse showed up like he did, they were

going to run him in the Arkansas Derby.

OK, lots of questions. Can he get the 9?

Is the outside post a problem? I'm guessing it's not because

he's going to try to get the lead anyway.

What says Matt Dinerman about Cornucopian's chances?

And I mean, it's a little premature on the justified

comparisons, but I get it. Well, Tava did this a couple

years ago. A few years ago under the

Baffert conditioning program, he was switched to Timmyak Teens

barn. I actually didn't even think

about that until Ed Derosa wrote something to me and I realized,

Oh yeah, that's right, he's under the Timmyak team.

But I mean, he switched to Tim's barn, literally moved Barnes

like 5 days before they see any Derby.

So we're just going to count this as under the Baffert

conditioning program. So Bob can do that.

Get a horse from six furlongs to a mile and a it's a big ask.

I, I just think, hey, I'm just connecting the dots and saying

if they think this horse is that good, they'll do something like

this. If they didn't think he was that

good, there'd be no reason to do this.

There's a risk in doing this. You got to ship them a second

time. And Bob even said with Barnes,

he goes, we're going to ship them once and he's a more

experienced horse. He goes, I only want to ship

more once before the Derby. This horse they're shipping

twice. I I get Citizen Bowl's whole

plan is to stay in California. You don't want to run the same

ownership group's horse. Cornucopia do very good against

Citizen Bowl, totally get that. But it's just a risk because

it's a second start from a mental perspective.

It takes a lot mentally for a horse to do this and run well

and keep them developing the way you want them to develop.

And they're asking a lot of this horse, no matter how talented he

is now, he's obviously extremely talented.

You don't run the way he did in the maiden race unless you have

so much probability. Pedigree says he'll go this far.

The barn who this horse is trained by indicates he will be

fit with Bob Baffert. You never have to worry about

fitness. Is it just too much too soon?

And that's the question mark. And I would say if Bob is making

this move with this horse, you know, $1.5 million race, he

could have run this horse in an easier spot like the wood.

He opts to run him in the Arkansas Derby, which is

typically a tough spot. Then they're I'm just connecting

the dots. They must think this horse is a

really good horse so. Well, same connections have

Madikit Rd. in the Florida Derby, right?

And that horse just ran at Oaklawn.

So for them to make this decision on top of that, I, I'm

with you, I think, I think there's a lot to read into here

with Cornucopia and certainly with Madikit Rd. heading down to

to Florida Derby rather than staying in this spot.

Yes, this is this is a a trainer with a lot of options spreading

his horses out for sure. But choosing this spot with

Cornucopian, like you said, is interesting and shipping him

twice is interesting. It's different than what we're

used to with this. But again, even if he gets a

lead and gets run down here, Matt, he still qualifies for the

Derby with that second place finish.

So I'm sure they're thinking of all these kinds of things as

well. I think so.

And I would say this. He outworked Barnes last week.

I think it was one of these deals.

Bob says it a lot. I believe him.

He has a plan in his mind, but based on how these horses work

and how they're doing, he can pivot.

He makes decisions based off all these things.

And I think I'm just speculating here, I don't know this for a

fact, but he probably said I'm going to work him with Barnes.

He's a good horse, obviously. Let's see how he works.

If he works to my satisfaction, if he works great, we're going

to run him in a good race. If we don't think he's ready,

there's no need to. We can point him even for a race

like the Preakness and not point for the Derby.

So I just think this is a telltale sign that Bob thinks

this horse is very, very talented and has earned a shot

to at least see if maybe they can take a fast track to the

Kentucky Derby here. It's also worth reminding people

to we're not back to Belmont yet.

It's still a mile and a quarter Belmont Stakes, right?

So there's, you know, even as as trainers start to get closer to

the Kentucky Derby, it's not like you have to deal with that

mile and a half monster that is Belmont Park.

I mean, if, if trainers want to hold out and and send their

horses to, to a Belmont Stakes at, at excuse me, at Saratoga,

they can certainly do that as well.

Won't ask you for a top pick, but if you had to guess out of

the the 9:00-ish, you know horses that'll be in the

starting gate, How many have a legitimate shot to win the

Arkansas area? I would say a legitimate shot,

probably about 5 of them. Yeah, I think that's right.

Say about 5. I'd say about 5, I think.

Look, I got a lot of heat for this on Twitter, as you might

have seen. I said Cornucopian is the horse

to beat just on block average record in the Derby.

Even though Cole Battle and Sandman have a lot stronger

resumes seasoning, I think Cole Battle should be stamped as the

one to be given just the storyline of this horse.

They've thought a lot of this horse.

It it it wasn't a secret when he won that he was a good horse.

People are talking about this horse in California when he got

here on Rebel Day to run in a main race.

People are saying this horse might be Bob's best horse.

There was a lot of hype around this horse.

So with that in mind, I think he's the one to be, but at the

same time, is he a good bet? Probably not.

I mean he's probably not a good bet.

Doesn't mean you can't pick him or you shouldn't bet him.

I'm just saying at low odds you would look at a horse like this

and say it's a better bet to bet a horse like Sandman that's

going to be 3 to one, then Cornucopian who has only run

once and he's going to be six to five.

Like it just seems like Sandman would probably be the better

value if you want to call it value at 3:00 to 1:00.

But that's how I see it. So I I'm torn.

I, I don't think I'm going to pick Cornucopian for that reason

because I think there are other better bets.

But I think I, I believe he has the most raw ability.

Whether he's going to have distance limitations, I don't

know, but I think Cornucopia has a lot of ability.

Yeah, there's only one way to find out.

That's exactly right. Well, he's Matt Dinnerman at

Three Colts Handicap on the social school.

Find him there. He'll be calling the races down

there at Oakland Park over the weekend.

Matt, we really appreciate you, buddy.

Have a great time. Of course I will.

Good. If Tom lets me back in the

building, I'll be at the Haskell again.

How about that? Beautiful.

OK, I was going to ask you. You got to come to the booth.

We had a great time. We did have a great time, Yeah.

How about that? A shout out to a guy, by the

way. I mean, you saw the early stages

of that relationship. But you know, I'm doing the

Blood Horse show now with Sean Collins, who you got to meet

that day too. And so maybe I'll drag Sean up

there again. We'll, we'll hang out, have our

you better, you better. Shoot a movie this time, though.

Because that's Sean's fault. Don't put me in there.

Don't do that to me. Bad.

You get to sit on our comfy couch again, as as noted in that

video. I know you like that couch.

I do enjoy your couch in Monmouth.

Yeah, that's true. Yeah, that's real.

That's real life. Yeah, and I'll very nice.

I'm with you. I'll, I, I'll, I'll bring a duck

this year. I was a bad.

I was a bad. Citizen.

Oh, you're bringing a duck? OK, very good.

We're running out of room, but we're going to find more room.

I'm determined to find more. I'll build you a shelf.

Mad, He's mad. Dinner with three Colts

Handicap. We'll talk to him soon.

Matt. Have a great time this week,

buddy. OK, we'll see.

All right. Thanks, Louis.

There you go. No problem.

All right, Matt Determan there here on the horse racing happy

hour. Lou, your bro hanging out with

you. Just a heads up on our schedule

the next couple of weeks. Of course.

We'll be at the Wood Memorial next week in Ozone Park hanging

out in Queens. Special guest Barry Spears

alongside for that one. Johnny P is going to be up there

from from his usual spot at Yonkers.

Going to make him watch Thurburn racing again.

Got to do that too once in a while, but of course, we'll have

all those things covered for you.

I'll talk to Brian Didot on Rabo and Co on ESPN 681057.

We'll make sure we have that clip available on the podcast

platform as well. We'll do that Friday morning and

of course, Socal Saturday. Be watching for that.

A couple great threes on the card at Santa Anita on Saturday.

Lou Ribo hanging out with you here on the Horse Racing Happy

Hour. We're going to wrap it up for

Matt Dennerman. Thank you for joining us, buddy.

I'm Lou Ribo. We'll catch you next week.