SoCal Saturday | 3/29/25 Santa Anita

Right background. What's going on with that?

Quite know what to do with that. All right, let's get after it.

It is a Socal Saturday edition of the happy hour hanging out

with am wager and our guy Barry Spears of course, here on the

happy hour ahead of multiple graded stakes.

That's at Anita Park tomorrow. Barry, how are you my friend?

Welcome back in. Thanks for having me back and

everything's gone, man. Ready for the weekend.

A lot of nice racing all over the country, including at Santa

Anita. So ready to get some of this

cash in my pocket, you know? There you go.

I always find myself and I always laugh because you know,

I, I'm, I'm lucky guy, get to cover the Derby around here and

Horseshoe Indianapolis always jumps in with us during Derby

week and people are always like, why are they advertising?

I'm like, 'cause people aren't just playing Churchill, they

gotta fill the time between the, you know, what is it, 7 hours

between races up here on Derbyday?

Something like that. Yeah, you gotta fill them, fill

them with something else. So that's the kind of thing on

Saturday too, is everyone, oh, they're only gonna be watching

Gulfstream and all. No, they're not, no.

And if you have a big score at Gulfstream, go parlay it over at

Santa Anita Park. And again, our Socal Saturdays

presented by your friends at Amwager, AM wager.com.

Check them out right now. 100% deposit match up to $150.00 for

new clients. There you get the AM Wager Edge

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The platform itself is beautiful.

It is its own thing, Barry. And I'll be in New York City for

this show next week ahead of the Wood Memorial.

So that'll be a lot of fun. But do want to thank our friends

at Amwager. We'll make sure we keep up our

good work there. And of course, next week we'll

be a Santa Anita preview show. We'll have a special guest as

well as part of that show. Really, really excited to get

that going for all of you who hang out with this version of

the happy hour. Let's get into it though, Barry.

Race one out at Santa Anita on Saturday.

Get my banners together. There we go.

Race one on Saturday is a made special weight going a mile and

an eighth on the turf course. What a great race I thought it

was, Barry. Just a really great race to kick

off this card. Nice field of eight in this one

as well. And I know you, I know on these

turf races you're always looking for a little bit of a price.

But I have a feeling, hey look, nothing wrong with Browski in

this spot as your top pick. Unmute yourself, Barry, unmute

yourself. You can do it.

Unmute. Yourself, I I love the name,

among other things, you know. You call everybody bro or

brother. That's right.

Yeah, that's what that's what Barry does.

You are muted again, my friend. What a start to this one, huh?

Oh, man, Is it on my unmute. There we go.

Now try Barry. There you go.

Oh, no. One more click.

You got Broski on top. I'll let you work on your bike.

I'm going to go to the six here on top in mythical real.

Only 5:00 to 2:00, but this is an Antonio Frey zoom out for

Phil d'amato. You're going to hear that name

for me a lot today. I think Phil set up for a

really, really big day tomorrow. This is a horse that broke OK

last time and then came out after the start and and really

got himself in a bad spot. I think he's going to be

considerably closer to the pace here.

Almost picked off the race anyway under Flavia and Pratt

last out keeps the Lasix, keeps everything, throws the blinkers

on. I think we'll start a little bit

better. And so I think the six in

mythical reel on top for me makes a lot of sense in the

spot. Unrivaled heroes in here.

Was really good in a maiden 80 last time in a maiden 80 in

California is not something you're going to get you're going

to get claimed in. It's like a maiden 200 at

Oaklawn Park. Just not going to happen.

And so that was a high, high level race.

Hector Barrios picks up the mound here from Mark Glatt.

The two of them won their last race together.

Should be interesting moving forward to see if they keep it

going. I thought the five horse was

interesting in here as well in Rowan August. 2nd time starter.

I get Armando Ayuso aboard here as well, which I really like.

A son of Authentic here throwing the blinkers on only the second

race ever. Maidens with second starts with

Richard Mandela to win one out of every eight races as well.

And so Barry, where did you land in this race?

In race one at San Indian on Saturday.

I cannot hear you Barry. All right, so why don't you I'm

gonna I'm gonna kick you out and then I need you to go ahead and

just log back in here. Barry, go ahead and try to re re

up yourself in here. But interesting card.

Excuse me interesting race to start the car on Saturday there

at San Anita Park with race one there.

Barry, by the way, does have Broski on top.

The number one horse here comes off of a a career high speed

figure last out of 73 trying the mile.

This will be the second time trying the mile and a move to

Umberto Rispoli as well. I think it makes a lot of sense

to try to ride this one and the aforementioned Phil D'amato, the

two of them winning one out of every five races together at

20%. Really, really good percentage

as well. I think Broski makes a lot of

sense in here as well. Race 2 on the card at Santa NIA

on Saturday and then let's see if we can get Barry on stage and

hear from Barry here. Go ahead and talk for me, my

friend. Hello can.

You hear me? Oh, there we go.

Hey, you do. All right, Yeah.

You got Broski on top. We'll move into the second.

We, we will move into the second.

The second race here at Santa Anita, it's a maiden 56 furlongs

on the dirt there for Cal Breads as well.

The Phillies in on this one at three years old.

Another nice field here of nine here.

Barry, I'll let you go first on this one.

I know that you think the 8 and bottom dollar first time

starters got a real shot here. Oh poor Barry, just not working.

He's got the 8 bottom dollar on top in this spot here.

First time starter for Miguel Ramirez.

Not a huge amount of data on Miguel.

Did have 70 runners with 12 of them winning last year.

So 17% hit rate with his winners last year.

Alvarado jumps on board here. This horse has been working at

Pleasanton, but again, a lot of these races are largely set

aside for those Northern California runners.

And so in this case, there's a bit of a bit of Barry just

trying something here because look like I have the four on top

here in sexy blue. But if you told me you didn't

trust that horse to get the distance to get to the to the

winning, get to the winner's circle with those connections,

etcetera, I would totally understand.

And I understand why you would take a swing with another group.

But we've got a three to two favorite here.

Barry, in Race 2. I imagine you're going to try to

beat Tapatilia. Yeah, absolutely no trust in

that horse whatsoever after the last, you know, or the three

races that this horse has had, especially the last two burned

up money the last time just doesn't appeal in this spot.

I'm going to go to a first time starter in the 8 bottom dollar.

I'd like the last workout in the steady stream of five furlong

workouts. This this field is is kind of

awkward. So trying a first time starter

kind of seems like a good fit here.

Sexy blue, who I do like because of the pace advantage.

I'm not sure this horse really wants to to finish races off.

I you know, the horse was 20 to one last time.

I don't gather that that horse would be alone on the lead.

If if she even gets the lead. I I can see a scenario where

bottom dollar just goes and and gets in front and and kind of

runs this, this group off their feet.

So that's kind of what I'm hoping with I, I think Tabatia

Leah is, is still a good option here to, to be around the lead

and, and, you know, finishing strong.

And then I use sexy blue for 3rd just to kind of speed and fade

type. Yeah, no, I understand.

I mean, I also think like little silver girl on the inside just

being a second time starter. She was kind of up the track

last time, but at least she knows what it's like to break

from the gate. Did finish ahead of four other

horses in that one. It wasn't a great race.

I'm not going to lie to you on top and you mentioned sexy Blue.

She did finish second in that race.

I I just wit this one man. If we can get that kind of value

at 12:50, I just would. Tapatilia, I'm, I just, I don't

know what we're getting and which makes me think she's going

to win this race before fun to just run away with it.

But, but I just, I simply don't know what we're getting.

And once in a while in those kinds of scenarios, I'm like you

in this case, where it might just be worth it to, you know,

try to try to beat a, a, a Tapatilia, that kind of thing.

And so we'll see though as the races move on here.

I do want to thank again our friends at Amwager.

Check themoutamwager.com. Get in right now for that 100%

deposit match up to $150.00 as well.

We also have a race 3 to talk about now.

How about that? That'd be fun.

Get back to the banners and there's race 3 clicking across

the bottom. This is the San Carlos and we're

going 7 furlongs on the dirt, so 4 and up, 100,000 in the Kitty.

Here we see the return of Fort Bragg, who you may remember from

the Florida Derby a couple of years ago.

Lost that that Pat Day mile on Derby Day in 2023, right behind

General Jim in one of the great finishes in Pat de Mile history.

Actually, we see him back in this spot, Barry.

And you know, he was a winner of the Dwyer.

This one turn thing seems to be what he's best at.

You and I both landed on Fort Bragg in this spot, which is

interesting because pilot commander, because Juan

Hernandez has the mount here. Barry.

I think we'll get most of the money, but no step down in my

mind to Kazushi Kumura in this spot.

No, Kazushi Kamura is excellent and and has been really good off

the layoff, as we say. But as as the body of work for

Fort Bragg is just better, more extensive and better.

And that I yeah. And I think that that'll make

all the difference between the two of them.

It's it's really splitting hairs.

But I'll take Fort Bragg because of the price over Pilot

Commander. And then For All Mankind looks

like the logical third choice here.

And, and obviously it's just a little bit below those two, but

it really there's no surprises in this race at all.

Yeah, For All Mankind did go in the Palos Verdes last time

behind Roland. Big Joe, who has won multiple

races in a row here, look no worse for not having Lasix.

But I think that's the real issue here for Pilot Commander.

All of his best runs have been with Lasix, and obviously with

the Grade 3 and the Heisen rules and all that, can't run with the

Lasix here. So we've seen Fort Bragg do

exactly that and frankly, he's been good without Lasix before.

But yeah, I'm with you. I don't really trust either of

the two favorites here out of the Baffert barn.

But it seems to be that this just seemed to be the kind of

race that he would just pick off.

So Before All Mankind could be the one that really does upset

the apple cart here. I don't know what to do.

In case anyone he wants to ask with Vlahos here, I don't think

that horse in A5 Horse Shield should be 12 to one.

I don't think that at all. He was really good in the

Clockers Quarter, but that was over a wet fast track.

And so I don't know that we're going to get that same a

performance out of him. It was also at a minute 10.

And if you're going to win a 7 furlong race at Santa Anita, you

got to be in the one O eights and the one O 9.

You just do them. So I don't know that he's fast

enough to get it either. But I'll go Fort Bragg on top

pilot commander in the second spot there in the San Marcos,

the San Carlos, excuse me. And then race 4 is, by the way,

I should get San Carlos, right? Because that's my oldest son's

name, Charles. I should get that.

I should get that right. I should not screw that up.

My kids have names that are very easily translatable into

Spanish. Made special in ways.

Race four, Another 14 state breads.

We're going a mile on the turf here.

Super maidens 3-4 and five years old. 118 lbs for three-year

olds, 126 for older horses in here as well.

You and I both have the five in our top 2 here.

Just to gaze again, Kazushi Kumar gets the ride here.

That horse was right there at the line last time.

It's interesting you and I landed here, Barry, because this

is a horse that's going to have to stretch out.

But we see over and over again these 6 furlong specialists who

turn into great milers all of a sudden on the turf course there

at Santa Anita. And I expect that to continue

here with just a graze. But on top, you've got the three

horse here. What do you like about fight

Back? Why can I not hear you, Barry?

There we go. A little trouble with Barry

again there, but he is on a fight back as his top pick here.

What did he did try the mile the last two times out and has

really struggled with it. But Simon Callahan on the turf

and on these kinds of races hits at about 10% with that.

Hector Barrios gets them out here and if you wanted to look

ahead and hope that this horse was going to get back on track,

this might be the spot for this son of Morazik.

Barry, go ahead and talk, see if I can hear you this time.

Oh, not so much. OK, No luck there for Barry

there. And in this race he landed on

the one in the third spot. I have the nine in the two spot

here going nowhere. This is the Erantis Ellis

combination. That's three for their last 10

at Santa Anita Park. This horse was really good last

out with Erantis in the in the saddle there gets to keep that

121 carrying weight despite being four years old.

The son of Ohm here I killed the son of Om in this spot almost

won two back at 6 1/2 in the West bat wet fast that they had

there on January 26th out at Santa Anita Park, but came back

looked really good last time out trying to turf for the first

time going into 4th place. But was really part of all doing

all the work with King of clubs and on and in that race.

And and then of course comes in as your favorite.

The two horse here at 5:00 to 2:00.

Giovanni Franco gets them out here.

I'm playing against just because of the Giovanni Franco 5 for 85

during this meet just does not seem to be up to the caliber of

these other jocks. And so if I have to get five to

two on a guy who's winning at 6%, I'm going to pass.

I'm going to try somewhere else in that spot.

And so that is where I landed in a Race 4.

Closing out the early pick 5 is race 5 and Race 5 on the card

here is is a mile race on the dirt for nickel claimers for

$5000 and $16,000 in the Kitty. This is one of the Northern

California races here. And Barry, I'll let you go first

if we can hear from you here, but you and I have There we go.

All right, the four of the one are in our handicapping, but you

have the three on top here in Union Wave.

Solid price at 5:00 to 1:00. Yeah, Union wave looks pretty

good in this spot. You know, happy does is a horse

that I I want to like, but it it just seems like this horse is

going to be up against it in this spot.

There's there's other horses that kind of have better speed

and better positional speed than that horse.

And and I I just feel like that horse a is going to be over bet

and B won't be in position to to really do too, too much.

You know, I, I think on talent alone this horse is just kind of

be around and I have him for second, but I do have the three

on top. Union Wave.

His back races back at Golden Gate were pretty good and he's

been facing open company and then getting into these

restricted races is certainly a step down and he fits very well.

Could be on the lead, could be stalking the pace.

I didn't find there was a whole lot of pace in here so this

horse should be close up right there ready to go. 5 to one

seems to be the perfect. Price, yeah, 5 to 1 is a nice

price in this field. I agree with you.

I did land on the four on top. I think dropping from that

optional claimer kind of level where the horse has been running

and hitting the board at least has already run four times this

year. We love these kinds of horses,

Barry. Fifth race already.

We're still in March. We love that kind of stuff and

this is a horse. Think it's an honest effort

every time, right runs hits the board every time and happy does

under under Castillanos. I thought the one here was

interesting too, brother, Brother O'Brien.

If we take that last effort out at Santa Anita and get back to

this kind of claiming 8 kind of level where this horse has one

previously at Pleasanton, I think we'll see a lot more.

I'm really hoping with that one, Barry, it wasn't the surface.

Obviously we're hoping that's not a Santa Anita thing, but

rather just a one off kind of performance there.

But brother O'Brien an interesting one to me as well.

Then I thought the 10 for a little bit of value as far as a

maybe a an exact to play with right hand rider on the out

outside. I don't love that with the

layout of that two turn one mile course at Santa Anita being on

the outside there. But this horse last time in this

company finished second from the 8 hole.

So this is a horse that was able to overcome an outside post and

you know, they tried this horse at six furlongs in an optional

claimer. You know, when you get to that

starter allowance kind of level just wasn't ready, gets back

down to this level at the nickel level where it's been very

effective before. I don't think he wins, but six

second place finishes and 12 runs last year.

So use that 10 as part of your exact as a race 5 as well.

We'll move on to race6thisisthepartstartofthelatepickfivewithourfriends@amwagerandamwager.com.

They've got the deposit match right now for all new customers.

100% match up to $150.00 a week. You go to the turf shoot, not

the downhill turf and run 6 1/2 furlong.

So we're using all of it here. Optional claimer here. 32,000 is

the claiming price. 40,000 is the purse.

This is for Phillies and mares 4 and up, which lots of different

conditions, but essentially non 3 lifers.

We got happy in here. Who is a three time winner?

Barry in the two hole here, but I went three on top.

You got a long shot here. Yeah, absolutely.

I going to take the 9 horse Lamborghini.

I I really felt, you know, I I've watched this horse run

pretty much every race this horse has ever run and I I

believe that this horse is probably a better sprinter than

a Miller and the cutback makes a whole lot of sense.

You see the horse 2 back or three back run really good on

the flat 6 furlong turf and I think that also makes all the

difference. This horse isn't really meant to

run down the hill and you can see that in the past

performances. The last two efforts weren't

bad, just not what this horse likes.

I think getting back to the the flat 6 1/2 and then the class

relief is going to make all the difference and put this horse in

the winner's circle. An interesting one.

I landed on something a a lot more conventional,

unfortunately, in the three doors here in Lady Gregory.

But this is a horse Berry. I I kind of just like when I get

to this kind of level when we're in the middle, you know, the

middle claiming ranks or the optional claimer kind of ranks.

I just want winners and this horse has 10 lifetime wins.

There's one at Santa Anita before 82 speed figure last out

doing exactly this over this course has been in the top three

all but one run in her last like 8 races here.

I'm just I know I'm going to get an honest run here.

Seems to work really well with Hector Barrios.

So I I think the three makes a lot of sense here on top.

The two horse and happy I mentioned is also 3 for four

lifetime and and I don't think as fast as some of the others,

but we found a new dimension with her running this race last

time. So she was in for 30 last time.

She's in for 32 this time, $100,000 purchase a daughter

quality Rd. So this is a well bred horse, in

this case Drosselmeyer on the damn side.

That's a name you probably haven't heard in a while, but

you know it's a it's with with a horse like Happy, this wouldn't

be such a stunning thing. And I think you'll get every bit

of five to one, maybe even 6:00 to 1:00 on that horse.

And Barry, am I crazy for liking Corporal Violet on the inside to

at least hit the board? Look at this horse's recent

form. Once they move this horse into

more turf races and on top of that into more of this level,

last out wins a claimer at the 25 level before that finishes

second. At the 25 level, that race was

spreading. The race before that she won was

at the miles, so we're going 6 1/2 year over the flat. 30 to

one is an absurd price on that horse.

I think she's going to be part of the equation at the end and

that's why she stood out to me. Barry's just the value.

I think if you can get that horse second or third at your

best, you can make significant money.

Well, you'll get you'll get your price for sure.

I think part of the reason is because of the running style.

She's not going to be able to get to lead here.

So she's going to have to work out a different kind of trip

more like what she did last June.

And that's not a bad thing because there is a lot of speed

in here. And that's why I kind of

gravitated away from horses like Happy, because there is some

speed in here that can kind of get in the way, namely the seven

unwritten code in the 8 Champagne Cami.

And it kind of sets the table for a horse that's stalking

because even Ivory Moon wants to be forwardly placed quite a bit.

So Lamborghini and and horses like that seem like they'll fare

well in this race. Even Lady Gregory has that sort

of thing. So there's probably going to be

a line of like three to four horses trying to get the same

trip. The one might actually fall into

a better trip just by being in the one hole.

I can definitely see how that horse could round out a triple

or superfecta easily. Yeah, ironically, a daughter of

Star Spangled Banner who's an Australian bred one of my

favorite random name things, not not an American horse.

The old Star Spangled Better Race 7 is the start of the late

pick for it's a $16,000 claimer with a $25,000 purse going a

mile on the dirt course here at Barry.

I'll go first on this one because I went very short on

this one. I really think there are only

two horses to play on the outside is boats.

Bow tie boy, bow tie boys. Why that's difficult for me to

say, I'll never know, but a set of Frosted on the outside in for

the tag here Was in last time in a $16,000 race.

Ran a really good second last out at this level for non 2

lifers. Tried non 3 before that, was

just not ready for the non three level.

Does have to carry 126 lbs here, which is a little bit more than

he's ever carried, but I think that horse is set up in a really

serious way to be really, really effective.

And then I went to the five, the second favorite here.

I hate to be boring but this one ran in the same race and was

right there right behind under Antonio Fresu.

I just couldn't find anyone else that I was in love with here

Barry. Everyone else seems to be

running kind of meh or worse kind of races and so I just

landed on those two in the spot. Do you got any more value than I

do? Cuz can't have any less than I

just pointed out. I think so.

I I mean these are the kind of races that would yield a big

price where everybody's kind of jumbled, they all look sort of

the same. I mean you see this a lot or

even around the country at different tracks where these non

one is A2 non 1 is a three conditioned claimers.

You get a lot of surprises. I ended up on number two big

bet. I think those November races,

the November 3rd race and then the November 23rd race yeah both

would win this one and the horse kind of tailed off in December.

They brought her back or brought him back on February 23rd.

He didn't run a bad race at a higher level.

The the class drop makes a lot of sense and the trip should be

OK. This horse is going to be

forwardly placed and and kind of have the run of the races.

It's a matter of whether this horse wants to go that far.

You know, it's tough because this horse does tend to quit a

little bit late, you know, and that's just the problem with

these types of horses or horses in this level.

They have trouble finishing races off.

So you got to you got to take a shot somewhere.

Somebody has to win. So I'm going to try the two.

That fair enough. Race 8 is the other feature of

the day. This is also my featured article

at the Sporting tribune.com. Barry, you will love this.

I think you'll love this. So I've been hanging out with

the Sporting Tribune for about a year and I've never asked them

for anything. I've literally just said, hey,

let me you know, let's do the thing.

Let's you know, we got our contract together, whatever, you

know, that kind of stuff. We got our agreement, but I've

never asked them for extra tags or extra things.

They have a horse racing tab on the website now and so I can't

think of, I know I that's exactly, so just scroll to the

bottom on the right. They feature all the stuff.

So like USC and UCLA and the Vegas Golden Knights and all

that stuff. Horse racing's right there with

all of those. So I'm really, really proud of

the work we're doing out there at the Sporting Tribune,

including this show, which is on the Sporting Tribune's YouTube

page every single Saturday as well.

Really appreciate Grant and a rush and all the guys out there.

I'll be on with them next week on the Sporting Tribunes evening

feed ahead of the Santa Anita Derby 2 to give you a preview of

that one. Should be a spectacular,

spectacular 3 races next Saturday.

Cannot wait. But the Grade 3 Wilshire is race

8 here on Saturday at Santa Anita Park.

This is a mile turf race here and I think one that is

absolutely spectacular to try to figure out because mostly

because I'm against the seven to five favorite.

So there you go. But this is a mile from Phillies

and Bears on the turf here for four and up 100,000 indicated

here 7:00 to 5:00 On to Ropati, who was very good in the Buena

Vista last time out. Barry But to me, that's more of

the exception than the rule with tear potty, so I'm going to try

to beat her. Where did you land in the

wheelchair? Yeah, tear potty just seems too

good to be true in this spot. I I, I get that the horse ran a

really good race last time and it might be overinflated as far

as the the buyer speed figure in the in the racing form, but it

was a solid race. But you have to think that like

the number indicates that's the bestest horse has ever ridden,

you know, run. So naturally, I would think

either the horse is going to pair up that number or regress

slightly. I'm going to, you know,

obviously the gamble is I'm going to bet against this horse

pairing up and just slightly regressing.

And that leaves Alpha Bella with the run the race.

I like the fact that this horse is getting back to the turf.

What she was doing early on and and was really good at, you

know, she kind of tightened up and and ran against some really

good company on the dirt. But she was really a turf horse

and a turf speed horse going long and it's good to see her

back doing that. And I think that's the the

formula for success here. Yeah, Not to give away my

article on the Sporting Tribune, but that's what I wrote about

her was just, you know, they do the barn shift away from Todd

Pletcher gets to the Sadler barn, and he immediately says,

now we're going to try the dirt thing with her.

And to be fair to John Sadler, this is a daughter of Justify.

And so there isn't a clear path necessarily.

So many of the justifies have been very good on the turf.

That's clearly what Pletcher saw, but we we saw what Justify

did on the dirt. We've seen what his progeny have

done on the dirt as well. So I wouldn't hate on anyone

that thinks that, oh, a horse can be, you know, out of this,

you know, Justify thing. And frankly, on the number one

and #2 on the damn side, we've got, we've got a lot of turf

pedigree as well, right? So Alpha Bella, that part makes

sense as well. I've got her second in my

handicapping for many of the reasons that you said it, but

especially getting back to the turf.

My question for Herberry is, is a mile on the turf enough time

for her? Is it enough distance?

I because her very best runs La Prevo, Beyoncé, those kinds of

races where she's going a mile and a half, three turns over

that turf at at Gulfstream Park, that kind of stuff.

That's where she really seemed to be.

Is she a plotter or could she bring some of that dirt form

that speed that she's had since moving to the Sadler barn?

I think that's a real question, but I would definitely I would

definitely include her in any kind of multi race wager.

I thought uncorked was really set up for this one.

Try that Buena Vista finish behind Tirapati in that one.

But I've seen assistant shows from this horse and frankly,

second off the layoff here, I think she's going to be in a

much better spot. Ran really well.

The Yellow ribbon last year, the handicap at Del Mar in August

before that did win a Grade 3 Miller in the Royal Heroin at

Santa Anita Park. So I'm really going on that

race. Barry back in April, that was

First off the bench. This one's going to be second

and 2nd off is an 18% hit for Phil D'amato, who wins at 17%

with Antonio Fresu as well. So I think that's five to Two's

a little short. I'd like to get 3 to one or or

maybe even 7:00 to 2:00 on that horse.

But I think she's going to be absolutely part of the equation

there. The one horse is interesting in

here with Tirapati because of the last race.

But Barry, again, what you talked about, is she going to

get better here? And my, my gut just says she's

not going to get better here. Plus the miles, the Max for me

because she's a daughter Mitoli, This is this is where you got to

Max out distance wise, I think with Mitoli's and catch you in

here. Sure, But I'll take on cork

certainly. Oh my gosh, at at what 2 times

better odds, something like that.

I'll take on Cork over to. Well, here's the thing.

Please. Here's the thing, you see her

race, that was kind of we'll, we'll say it's equal to the

last. All right, you're still there

Barry, but I can't hear you when you said the last like 5 words.

All right, there you go. Go.

Ahead. Yeah.

So let's just say those two races were equal, right?

One was in a non winners of three and other was in a grade

2. Yep, you.

Got to think that this horse has has it's challenged.

I mean, even even the speed figures aren't that great.

I I'd be really, really shocked if the course is 7 to 5, right?

But I do think the the horse is gonna be funny and it just seems

like the other two are just better And I threw that one out

completely and I'm going to take the two to tahini for 3rd.

I think the source is going to be forwardly placed and could

hang around for a piece at a big price because the others really

don't look like they want to run.

Well, and Mike Smith's going to be in Florida and I have not,

and I've asked around. No one knows who's who's going

to ride tahini. But frankly, for example, I

think. I would guess.

Kazushi, right, yeah, I think so.

I think Kazushi's going to get their mound here and this is a

horse that's capable of getting the lead, keeping the lead in

tahini. I I don't know why they wouldn't

just hey, you don't know this horse, Kazushi just get the lead

and try to rate it out rather than hey, go ahead and time this

race. I mean it doesn't make any

sense. And so I think with I think with

her, she's an absolute because of the jockey change actually,

an absolute include actually, and she's coming off the bench

here too. Hasn't run since November.

That's a good angle for George Papa pro Dromo as well.

So I, I don't he doesn't win graded stakes tahini, but boy I,

I wouldn't be surprised to see her pick up a check in this one.

So I agree with you for sure. Race 9 starts the late double

and of course a reminder the late double.

There is a $5 minimum but a 15% take out.

Forgot to mention at the top of the eight, the eighth race, late

pick 315% take out, three dollar minimum.

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wagering, check out our friends at amwagerandamwager.com for

that 100% sign up match for new customers.

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Optional claimer in race 9 on the dirt 6 1/2 furlongs here for

$67,000. This is for four and up

essentially for non 2 lifers. Berry.

We've got horses in here that have won a lot more than those

two races but at lower lower levels including a group hour.

Who's high for eight lifetime? How about that?

Never missed the board in all of his runs.

I love horses like that, has won a bunch and frankly has made the

move from Pleasanton to Santa Anita.

I got to imagine you and I are both trying to beat this horse

here. Absolutely.

There's there's a ton of speed in this race.

Kangaroo court. Kangaroo court is as fast as

anybody. Even though he hasn't been out

in a couple years, he's still going to be fast in this race.

You know, there's there's a lot of speed in here to to bother

the four. So I'm going to gravitate away

and I'm going to use a horse that I even picked last time to

pseudo got a horrible trip. I mean an absolutely terrible

trip. A horse back into this horse had

to go inside, then a wall of like seven horses in front of

them and then had to go around wide and just had no shot.

I got to give this horse another chance.

I liked him last time off of that nice race against

positivity, just missed. I think he's going to turn the

tables that that was just such a terrible trip that any any kind

of good trip is definitely going to improve this horse.

And if he gets a clean trip, I think this horse can win.

So you landed on the 6th. I went much longer than that.

I landed, I'm just kidding, 8:00 to 1:00 instead of 6 to one.

Touchdown Brown, which is just a name I like, but also has what,

three straight and has been running in this kind of level

optional claiming state, breads, claimers, etcetera, but moves

into the libretto. Borrasio barn here.

And I just like that I'm getting 8 to one on a horse.

That's 2 for two this year, 2 for four last year has been in

the top two of five of his 7 attempts at Santa Anita Park.

The last one was on firm go before that.

By the way, A5 length win in a $25,000 claimer as well.

Going this distance. I just look, man, I know it's a

little bit of a cut back in distance here, but I think the 6

1/2 will play fine horse one at six furlongs back in October at

Santa Anita as well at the $20,000 level.

This horse as well is able to run late Barry, or run early.

So whatever this race shakes out to be, I think we're going to

get an honest run. That'll be kind of my long shot

play of the day. I've got kind of a long shot

double at the end here with the with the five and then we'll

talk about the next race of course when we get there.

But I've got the two in the second spot here in positivity

for Kent de Zormo and George Papa Prodromo in this case.

He ran really well last out in an optional claimer at the

$50,000 level horses in for the tag here.

The son of Painter, but he's a gelded son.

He's seven years old. Very unlikely probably to get

picked up in this one. Did win at the optional claiming

level 2 back as well. So I think positivity 4 to 1 is

a gift on that horse and if you can get it, go ahead and pump

that one as well. Who you gonna be using

underneath? Yeah, positivity is, is the

horse I've finished or I picked for second.

Yep. I think it's just a a matter of

them flip flopping that January 31st race that that trip, at

least for me for Desuto was so bad.

And then momed looks like the horse on the rise.

I like that effort off the bench stretching out a little bit.

This source should be right there.

I think he's going to be a little bit closer than he was

the last time. In fact, he could probably be

the surprise in this race more than anybody else, You know,

kind of the new face sort of thing.

But they're all kind of the, you know, in and around each other.

So this should be a good competitive event.

Yeah, you and I leaving Grubauer out of our handicapping here

again. Never missed the board in eight

runs, 2 for two this year, both of those in restricted races for

Northern California horses. But hey, no hate on that, man.

Go get your checks. That's all I'll say about that.

37, two this year. That'll pay some bills.

Our race. Ted will close the card on

Saturday at Santa Anita Park. We're back in the shoot, going 6

1/2 on the turf here, $65,000 on the line for maidens, Phillies

and mares. 3-4 and five years old here, a 2 to one favorite in

sun glow on the outside. Barry, I know you and I sure as

heck ain't touching No 2 to one in this race.

Nah, not not in this race. There's a lot of horses doing a

lot of different things, you know, second time starters.

I mean this, this is like the proverbial crapshoot at the end

of the at the end of the card. But I narrowed it down to

Eastwick. The two horse from Mandela has a

real nice, a real nice set of works.

You know, the March works in particular and that's really

kind of what piqued my interest the most is because the horse

seems to be getting faster as they go.

That's always a great sign for a horse that that's going to be

unveiled. 8 to one seems like a pretty fair price in a race

that's I think it's pretty wide open.

I went to another long shot here.

I landed on the 10 horse, so I landed way outside on Inner

Fury. This is a first time starter in

North America. That is something that Phil

D'amato does unbelievably well. So this horse in on the turf, he

wins at 24%. His last 34 starters with first

timers in North America, first time at his bar, he wins at 23%.

Very similar. He just knows when he gets a

horse Berry how to place them. I get Juan Hernandez and six to

one. I want to be very clear, ain't

no way I'm getting 6 to one on this horse by the time we get to

the gate on Saturday, but I'll take nine to two real happy.

I'll be happy about that. I think this one sets up really,

really well. The Irish bread obviously ran in

the auction series. Phillies last out at Down Royal

in Ireland. That is not the best place in

Ireland. I'm not going to pretend that

that was some kind of world beating performance out of

there. I am simply trusting Phil

d'amato in the spot. Horse has been working on the

Tepita, not as well as yours, not as well as Eastwick, by the

way, it's worth mentioning, but has been working on the Tepita

there, landed on her because I think if when you filled the

model with the 1st timer in North America at that level, you

got to go with it. And by the way, you've got that

horse second in your handicapping.

Yeah, it's worth noting that that race that Inner Fury was in

had fourteen horses in it. And the comment, the comment

really stuck out to me and said no chance, but the horse

finished fourth. I know I had to.

Do some kind of running, right. I mean, I honestly, I, I had the

notion that interfury might actually go off favored or close

to favored, OK, just for that alone.

And it makes a lot of sense. The horse probably can run.

I mean, obviously we don't know for sure.

I just didn't want to take a short price and that's why I put

this horse second, but kind of like a close choice.

Yeah, no, but I like, I like what how you're talking about

this and I think this is a conversation we should have

right now, which is by the time we get to this race, if you want

to put a wind bet on this horse, you're literally gambling that

other people aren't going to notice what you're knowing

they're going to notice, right. The best way to get value on a

horse like this is actually at the end of the sequence.

So if we did want to play that late pick 3 for three bucks,

maybe we press on these two horses that you and I have just

brought up. Maybe you play the two in the 10

as your, you know, your closer or play the turf pick three with

these two horses. Get them in that kind of

sequence where they're down the line.

They're not the morning line favorites.

And so other people are just pushing on, you know, morning

lines to fill out a pick 3 or whatever it might be.

Do your handicapping early. We did this the other day at

Turfway Park with the Ruby and we got a 14 to one horse at the

end of that sequence that was 6:00 to 1:00 in the morning

line. We knew that that horse was

going to drift up because he's coming out of a maiden win.

This is an opportunity to actually catch a horse before it

drifts down and ruins the value on your ticket that.

Way that's a really good point because of the fact that you

know, I I've noticed this it's it's a trend because of the CAW

money that's in the pools. You'll see a lot of the times

the wind price is very low but the exotics in the multi.

Race multi race. Are on par because of the fact

that the CAW # the, the wind pools a lot, but not neglect,

but they don't play the same way in the multis.

And you'll get horses that, you know, a stream of four, let's

say five to two shots that pays $1000.

So you kind of have to ignore some of that and and kind of

stick to the the morning lines when it when it comes to those

multi race bets. And you don't want to shy away

because sometimes those horses will be lower prices, but in the

other pools they'll be a lot higher.

I do have by the way, I have the 8 ahead of the one in my

handicapping Halston Rose, which is which is a three to one horse

with Imberto Wrisply I thought looked really good last time and

and it moves to the Baltus barn here out away from Brian Lynch.

I'm not anti Brian Lynch, I'll be really clear.

I just sang his praises on my my morning show here.

But this is a horse been working really, really well at San Luis.

Rey is trying to turf for the second time and Barry, I like

that angle too. Horse trying to surface for the

second time, getting used to it over an earlier run.

I I think Halston Rose is interesting here as well.

Got to ask you of course for Florida Derby and Arkansas Derby

takes something's happening Barry that I think is really

interesting and, and and it's our fault, but it's everyone's

fault. Cole battles a really good

horse, but he was bred for 2500 bucks and because his trainer is

Lonnie Briley, we ain't giving him his his due.

And that's a really good horse. That's all I'll say.

That's why I went Oh. Yeah, he's nice.

He's really nice. Yeah.

Really good. Yeah.

Cornucopian. How are you?

How are you handicapping that one going into tomorrow Runs the

six furlongs. Runs off the page at Oaklawn

Park. It's Bob Baffert.

We've seen this before. Has to go from six furlongs to

9. Would you include him in a

ticket? I think I have to.

You kind of have to include him, but you know, it's a real big

ask. Tyba.

I know did did the same thing a couple years ago.

But man, you know, being stuck on the outside like that.

And this isn't that same kind of field that tape a beat.

Like he beat Messier in that race.

And we've seen what Messier has turned out into.

He's not even in the Baffert barn anymore and he's he's

running, you know, kind of lower level stakes in New York.

So I, I don't know, I got to go with a lot of skepticism.

I like Sandman to to kind of reverse the trend.

He he got into a lot of trouble in those races at Oaklawn and he

gets a clean trip. He's going to win.

I think I just want to see him a lot more in the race earlier and

I think that's what Jose Ortiz brings to the table.

There you go. Yeah, I'm interested in Sandman

as well. Florida Derby sovereignty and

the and everybody else. Some weird jockey injuries

unfortunately happening at Gulfstream Park this week

between Junior Alvarado, Tyler Gaffe, Leon.

I don't love Mike Smith on Maticot Road, except that I do

trust Mike Smith to get out front and stay out front.

Like, I think it's one of the things he does the best is is

rating on the front. But man, Sovereignty's so tough,

dude. That is just he's a beast of a

horse man. He's really nice, but I I got to

think that they're not going to be real mad if this horse

finishes in the money and not win.

And I would rather see that now than obviously on Derby day.

But I think Madiken Rd. is is going to be under pressure and

needs to win. So I think that one in Tappan

St. looked like the two top horses here.

And then I'd throw in the two cool intentions at a price to to

to kind of round out the exotics there.

I think I'll make you really happy.

But I just talked with oh gosh, oh, I just talked with Brian

Nadeau and he's riding with a different local in Jimmy's

dailies. 12 to one dude. Yeah, Brian Lynch is the other.

Lynch, if you will, just ran in an optional claimer under Irad

Ortiz and he really likes to switch to Joel here, which is

interesting. So I like, I like that Brian in

a race with sovereignty is going to go on top with that horse.

I like that. So so there you go.

He's brave. He's awfully brave.

I'm, I'm, I'm agreeing with you, it's out of a coma.

So maybe they'll get something out of that as well.

But this has been another edition of Socal Saturdays.

Good luck with all the Derby preps tomorrow.

But of course, much more luck at Santa Anita.

Again, we encourage you to check out our friends at

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Barry. I'm Louis.

We will see you next week ahead of the Santa Anita, and we'll be

live from NYC. Why not?

This has been the SoCal Saturdays presented by and Wager

and our friends at the Sporting Tribune.

Luther Beau, Barry Spears, we'll see you next week.