SoCal Saturday | Santa Anita Derby 2025

All right, welcome in in someone's kitchen in Queens, NY.

I'm Louis. He's very in person together.

First time doing a SoCal Saturday in person.

A very echoey Chamber of a Queens kitchen.

But look at this, look at this cabinetry, people.

Are we not bringing you just the most Queens thing ever?

Like do not expect one of the Costanzas to jump out from

underneath the microwave over here.

I mean, I'm really, I'm looking forward to it, frankly.

I think we're going to end up on you, the King of Queens.

I don't think that's going to happen.

I'm not that bad, am I? No.

No. Is that what you just did?

Did. You speak a mad joke, Mary.

It's a family show. OK.

All right. Well, we're here ahead of the

Wood Memorial, which will be at tomorrow 11:00 live show there

at Aqueduct ahead of all the racing action and frankly with

the move the Tuesday and the Bluegrass, there should be a lot

of action in the handle both at aqueducts and at Santa Anita

Berry. And so I'm excited for this card

in particular because you know, once we get to that six O clock

hour here, that later sequence starts to kick along out there

in Southern California should be I mean those leg pools should.

Be really terrific, Yeah. Because it's, you know, the San

Anita Derby is a giant race. You know, they have those pick

threes out there, the $3 pick threes and all the the late

action full, full turf fields. So.

That Turf pick 3 is probably going to pay stacks off, just

stacks and stacks, especially with some of the Calbred stuff

that we'll be talking about as well.

So yeah, I get it of course with our friends at Amwager always

presents our coverage here on the show.

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amwagerandamwager.com. All right, very big day, 12

races, a ton of big fields and fun ones I have.

So you and I put together a sheet and it's something that I

think we can, we can peel the onion here.

We can pull back if you want a little bit on what it is, how we

organize this show. But we have a Google Doc because

usually I'm in Kentucky, you're in Florida.

We don't get to do this too terribly often.

And we put little asterisk next to our long shot place.

Barry, if you as you look at my computer for the first time

getting to do this, a long time asterisk on that page.

Yeah, you're, you're you're like an astrologer.

All the stars. Libras in I don't even know like

people start that's a language. I don't it could be Mandarin, I

don't know. How do you not know?

What? How do you not know that's what

I want? What a Libra is, I don't know

how to do that. No, I'm bad at that stuff, but

let's get into it. Race one out at Santa Anita Park

tomorrow will be on the turf and doing the darn thing.

We already have comments from outside, man Good evening.

Oh, our guy's Steve our winner on the other one memorial had

good to see Steve hanging out with us that way here you can

always hey, if you're watching live, man, hit us up with hit us

up with something. We'd love to throw you into the

show. That way you got to play kind of

play. You got to play or something.

Let us know. I'm not above.

I'm not. I was going to say not above

getting help on this state. Red Maiden special way to open

the cards. 6 furlongs out of the turf.

Chute there, $65,000 on the line.

We're dealing with. Three-year old Phillies here.

I thought an interesting grouping frankly early on of of

maiden 3 year old races here Barry.

This is included in that. I've got four horses written

down. I'm I'm a little chalky here,

Barry, but where did you land a race on I?

Landed on #4 Barry Smart. This horse has a some precocity

in the pedigree. I, I believe the damn one first

time out and there's some other horses in there that this horse

has been bred to that have some wins early.

So I think this horse might have a little bit of speed.

I, I like the workout pattern, especially those ones early in

March showed some quickness and then kind of stretched it out a

little bit. Those are the kind of things I

like to see. Sheriff's isn't the greatest

first time out. He's very capable.

I don't think it's something he concentrates on, but if he has a

horse that can do it, they'll do.

It yeah, right. And so very smart, of course,

Antonio Fraser getting the ride there, man, I landed on the 9

here. I'm sure I'm being very boring

before I get to that part of the form.

But if you've been watching this show or any of the other

handicapping stuff that I appear and I love a second time

starter, especially one that comes out of a race where they

could have frankly been a winner going 6 1/2 here, flipping the

dirt, which I know that's a a thing that we always are

concerned about. But frankly, Carla Gaines his

numbers in second starts from maidens or it just stands out

above others at 28%. And that that turf, that dirt to

turf, excuse me, transfer at 14%.

Those numbers put together, Barry, I think the three to 1, I

don't even know that we'll get it.

I think this course might be a little bit below that, but maybe

the Carla Gaines name might not do enough.

But I mean, she's. Hitting at 18% just this year.

What you got? I think she's going to be 9:00

to 5:00. OK.

Yeah. OK.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. OK.

I got the 10 next to it. Oldies memory, Oldies memory

lane. Excuse me in this one.

Throw the blinkers on in this spot.

Which is interesting because this course had the lead in the

mile race last time. Just ran out of gas before that.

Tried the horse at 6 1/2, was right there as well.

I think between these two for me, very.

I think I get pretty skinny early.

Yeah, I can. I can see that.

I went with the five. Guilty of having fun.

Second, I'd like to cut back from a mile to six furlongs.

Ran a pretty good race last time.

I would want to see this horse closer to the pace because I

don't really think this is going to get too wild up front, you

know, but you never know. These are young horses with not

too many starts, so anything can happen and that's what makes

these kind of races really, really tough on a consistent

basis because you get a lot of things going on horses that

probably have a lot more own from the turf than we even

realize until we see run. Yeah, no, that sounds about

right. I do have him third of my

handicapping. So I agree with you that there's

a lot there. How about a bomber dirt team,

the two horse here at 20 to one a guy that you and I touted

frankly a lot last week at Kazushi Kamura riding from our

glad here. The two of them by the way,

recently started to work together a lot more hitting at

20 percent, 26% in their most recent outings.

And this is a trainer at 13 percent on his first timers and

22% turf sprints. This is what he does.

So just a little interested, I don't know that this, this

daughter, excuse me, of Grayson is going to get up and get all

of the money here, Barry. But I think 13 at 30 to one at

20 to one price, I think the horse is probably gonna stay in

that range. But a great play underneath for

exacta or trifecta action. The Echo Eddy Stakes is the

second race on the card here. I always think of the chosen

Gron now when I think of this race.

I just run away from it with everybody. 6 1/2 furlongs on the

dirt here, Race 2 at Santa Anita on Saturday.

This is Socal Saturdays with the Sporting Tribune and our friends

at Amwager. He's Barry.

I'm Louis. Thanks for making this part of

your Friday. We mean it for sure.

This is a state red stakes, but it has a lot of pedigree.

And frankly, Barry, you know, when we talk about California,

what's the word we always use? We use speed.

This is a speed, speed, speed kind of race.

A minute 13 at 6 1/2 furlongs is the track record.

That's unbelievable. That's how fast they're moving

out there. Where'd you land in the echo,

Eddie? This was a really tough race

because a lot of these horses have a lot of speed.

They they are kind of versatile where they don't really need it

a lot of them. So they're around it.

I ended up going with #3 our Heisman on top, you know, this

horse went long a couple of times or actually three times in

a row before getting back to a Sprint situation at Oaklawn.

And I think the second time out is going to make all the

difference. The horse didn't get the best of

trips last time at Oaklawn and got into trouble kind of mid

stretch a lot of traffic. This race sets up a lot better.

There's some speed up front where this horse can run into,

but I don't think they need to be too far back to run into it.

I think this horse is good on his own. 6 to one seems logical

and and a good. Price I've already tried them

three times this year or two at different places.

And I do wonder if this company because it is restricted the way

that it is, is a little a little softer, frankly than even an

optional claimer at Oakland. And I'm not trying to pick on

the state program in California at all with that statement.

I just I wonder if it couldn't be a softer spot.

So I don't hate that angle from you, Barry.

I did land on the two here. Like I said, I'm a little chalky

early, but man, we will get away from that in a couple races

here, folks. I do think I'm a bad boy should

be the favorite here. Even showed it on the turf last

time. But before that has one at the

distance going the mile in the in the King glorious.

He finished second in that one at Los Alamitos just a couple of

months ago, but of course at Del Mar over a turf Sprint as well.

So this of course kind of does a little bit of everything, sort

of the classic Louise Mendez in this case.

But he's at 28% winning right now in this meet at Santa Anita,

He and Edwin Maldonado hitting at 26% together.

That's a good, good number man. And this makes a lot of sense in

this kind of spot essentially in this state kind of level.

We're talking about a very high level allowance essentially.

I think he fits really, really well here.

So I landed on the two. I would go to the five next and

drop them. And this is an interesting one

because this is a horse who's done all of his best running in

Northern California, but he gets to drop sort of back into that

company here I feel. Tried the mile in a 16th last

time. I think that was because of the

money and because of the state bred sort of condition there.

Mike Smith got the ride. This horse was right in it until

he wasn't at the top of the stretch, right?

While we're getting back to 6 1/2 prolongs here, he was 3 for

three. If he wasn't DQ D out of his

third start, I'll lean on him in the second spot here with Kyle

Frey thinking that he and Felix Rondan, who never hook up these

two never work together, can get this back together for this one.

But I hate the numbers off the layoff for Rondan here.

Yeah, that's tough, but I think this horse, but it's not too.

Huge, I mean. I think this horse is 20.

It'd be a lot more glaring, but ten you can kind of. 10's still

a lot, but this this one at least stands out as it makes

sense. I get A and by the way, I get a

workout from the gate like you like that is a bullet work from

the gate. So that's what I saw a couple of

things there. Those are my top two at least.

Barry, would you? Win.

I actually use the five for 3rd OK, I I think if this horse had

a race I would probably have. Upgraded his OK but.

Definitely has a has a shot to win this but I used the seven

bro bro for second. You know the sources run 2 good

races. I can't knock either one of

them. Didn't get great trips in

either. Looks logical in this spot.

You know, kind of like the best of the rest and if things.

Fall the right way that a horse like that can lead.

I largely agree with you about Bro Bro.

I think I have him in my third spot in Andy Cap Seems

disrespecting. On the morning line here, so if

he's if he's 8 to one like his morning line, he'd be.

Very. These are the races Douglas Neil

cleans up, right? I mean, that's the other part of

this is that this is. And this duo, by the way, has

never tailed off the two of them separate.

They're like 10 percenters together.

They're 25 percenters. I'm not kidding.

Like Voltron. It is like Voltron, I agree.

Or or other things like Voltron, but yes.

It is like. It's Voltron.

It's OK, You and I. It's Voltron.

Yeah. It's.

It's OK. Yeah, my bad.

We can stay in the Voltron light.

We'll be all right. But yeah, I agree on bro.

Bro, do I have a longer shot in here?

I probably don't know Style cats.

Interesting to me, but isn't as well for Peter Miller and Juan

Hernandez? Yeah.

So I I would lead on those at the top for sure.

Again, check out our friends at amwageramwager.com.

Use that sign up bonus right now, 100% match up to $150.00.

They got you covered over there and a previous 150 this year.

How about that? We're going to the 100th Wood

Memorial tomorrow. Like we mentioned earlier, 11:00

AM Eastern will be our coverage live from Aqueduct in the

morning. You can find us over there at

Horse Happy Hour at Radio Louis, of course on the Sporting

Tribune on their pages as well. Race 3 will be an optional

claimer. This is for non stapler company.

So the company here a mile on the turf, $67,000 indicating

here 4 and up there. I'll let you go first here, but

this is one of those turf races where I I'm going to step away

from the truck that I was in the 1st 2 races.

I think we could find a bomber here and you don't.

No, I actually, I was really torn with my first 2 picks

because it it was kind of conditional because if the two

goes off at the odds, he is in the morning line.

He'd definitely be the play. But I I have a funny feeling

that that horse. Didn't take.

The money but I I went on top with Paxa Wallop.

I think the class relief was much needed.

Was in the Thunder Rd. and and really didn't do much.

Didn't run poorly per SE. But you see the company this

horse has been keeping with El Potente C Singer, Zeo Joe

Johannes, Air Force Red and and and holding his own.

I think the layoff is probably the best thing for this horse to

come back in this spot. All signs point to this horse

running a big. Race, yeah, I landed on, I say a

long shot, 8 to one, eight to one count as a long shot these

days. It's how we're doing 8 to one.

I think that's a pretty good. But I get Antonio Fraser for Tim

Yak team here and this is a horse last out that went a mile

in an eighth and just ran out of gas in the stretch under Jose

Ortiz when when he was out there earlier in March.

I'm interested here because we're second in the form cycle

here off of a long layoff. I like that angle here with this

horse. And this is just what Timmyak

team does. I think these are the kinds of

races that he picks off. I like the horse just sort of

generally in this spot progressing to this point.

It is. It's as good as it gets.

So I'll 8 to 1 moonlight moonlit Sonata.

Great. I'll take that all day.

Who you got inside? I use the two takes three.

I'm throwing that downfield and like I said, I was kind of torn.

You remember that sound bite of Christopher walking where he

says, oh, you're talking to my guy all wrong?

I think that's what they were doing with this horses.

They sent him long twice on on the turf going a mile and 8th

and that's just not what he wants to do.

This is a much more realistic spot.

This horses run very well on the turf at this distance. 20 to one

is is seems like a a juicy price on a horse that probably has a

way. Better I have him in my four

spot and I included him like, Hey, leave him out at your own

peril. I'm with you.

And frankly, if you're if you're like an exact a box kind of

player or something like that, I think he's a must.

Include. It it it's interesting to look

back because this horse, yes, I get it, three wins in 15

lifetime starts, but seven times hitting the board and it's the

son of Nyquist I. Mean it it.

It it could still all be there, we just haven't seen the best of

that horse quite yet. Getting shadow produced by

people. So I've been messing with your

mic because they want to hear from you, Barry.

Testing. Yeah, we got it.

We got it. Yeah.

How? About that race 4 is the Santa

Anita Oaks win and in for the Kentucky Oaks, which of course

is. If you're new to horse racing,

yeah, it might be a lot of folks blew your boat.

Barry Spears, thanks for hanging out with us tonight.

The Santa Anita Oaks leads to a horse, a race called the

Kentucky Oaks, which is actually one day older than the Kentucky

Derby and is run on the Friday before the Derby is run on

Saturday. And so this is the race for

three-year old Phillies. And there is a lot of money at

stake here, $200,000 for grade 2 in this one, OK.

And this is a race where we're going to see Tema, OK.

And if people are, you know, dropping in on this, Tema is,

she's the class of the West Coast at this point, Barry, are

you going to lean on her like I am, or are you going to look

somewhere else? Yeah I'm not creative here Tim

looks like the goods she towers over this field speed figure

wise all of them. It's really going to be

harmless. She just doesn't show up for

them to beat her. Now I'm going to use the one at

a price for second look forward I.

Was just going to ask you who your second one?

Is, you know that dropping back from that race, the honeybee

didn't really run that well against a couple of monsters.

I mean, 5 GS is razor sharp. Quiet side obviously is is, you

know, one of the leading contenders for the Oaks and

Mohima speaks for herself. So there's no shame in losing to

those horses. The only problem is I'm not sure

if this horse is going to run, but if she does I'm I'm

definitely. Yeah, she's also entered at

Keeneland on the same day. I'm going to go, Madam

Secretary. Second, Speaking of our guy,

Kazushi Kimura in the 6th hole there, six to one for Richard

Mandela. Broke her maiden last out.

Only real question with her Barry is how much did the

medication help? I'll give the horse credit

though for taking a step forward in every one of her starts.

I think if she takes any kind of step forward in this company,

she isn't catching A10 month. But I think she could absolutely

run 2nd and frankly that might be good enough to get her the

Kentucky Oaks starting it. How about that?

That's amazing. I'm sure the connection would

just be overjoyed if that does happen.

I mean, you know. So my racehorse here.

Thousand of them, yes. My.

Original team right on hand trying to reach that horse

thing, but I thought vodka with the twist was she is the second

best horse in this race she's. Talented.

I just, I can't. She doesn't get.

There correct she just doesn't she doesn't get there that's

right but yeah I mean it's it's hard when you are born in the

same year as a horse like 10 so. I get it, yes.

It's tough, right? Plus that three-year old Philly

crap. I know good cheer stands at the

top. For sure she does.

There's a bunch of really nice Phillies in that class.

It's some in there stable. Right, right, just right down

the street. You're exactly right.

So closely the early Pick 5, which we will be playing

tomorrow at Aqueduct. I haven't told you that.

Yet, yeah, no. OK, alright.

Yeah, we do 50% takeout ran on the early pick five in Southern

California, definitely take advantage of that.

The Monrovia, one of our favorite courses that 6 1/2

furlong down the hill turf course there at Santa Anita

Park, Monrovia presented by Kettle One grade three with

$100,000 indicating for this one.

So for Frillies and Mirrors 4 and up, open company here, very

helpful. First race 5 here.

I landed on the 6th, which I'm sure is very, very boring

because that horse is 4:00 to 5:00.

But she's very rarely talented. She's won over this course by

open lengths before. I think she towers after that

wishing Well where she just slept walked to a multi length

win. I think she towers here.

I am interested in Manganza right next to her.

I think the five is probably the biggest push for an upset here.

But how about Ang and Ash? How about the horse you gave us

on this show that when she won, paid 11 1/2 to one?

Can she run it back here? I think she has a good.

Shot, I think she can run second.

I got a second question. OK, I used.

Her for a second, but you know this race is is really

interesting because of the one Omaha Grove and what you think

of this horse and what you think of this horse in this race

because if Omar Algaro is is out there winning it and not going

that fast, she might be hard to beat.

But I don't know if. And from the one you got to go,

and from the one on the downhill you got to.

Go. She's definitely.

Going to try. You got to go.

That's right. I don't know if she's actually

faster than Queen Maxima, even though you see all the ones and

all that other stuff. Queen Maxima is very, very

quick, so I'm leaning to the fact that she's probably Queen

Maxima is going to get in front of this horse.

So I used her on top, kept with ING and Ash, you know, kind of

picking up the pieces. Yeah, I, I'm not mad at the ING

and Ash angle. I do think the five is

interesting in here. I know the four is only 5:00 to

2:00, but I have that horse behind ING and Ash at this

point. Am I handicapping?

I I that's kind of interesting to me, but that horse has never

won down the hill. And that's OK.

I mean, I get it, but just. They're just going to show up

and beat Quid Maxima. No, no thank, no, no thank.

In my mind at least, nothing. I use it for 3rd at all.

OK, all right, fair enough. OK.

What do you think our price will be on the early pick 5 ticket?

About 144, No, probably less. Less play for like 96.

Yeah. What about that you?

Could probably cold deck one of these two favorites, OK, you

know, in the 4th or 5th and that would probably set up your day.

But especially the first race, that one, that one is real

tricky, OK. There you go.

All right again. You're going to be betting

tomorrow either at Aqueduct or at Sanity to check out our

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The Evening Jewel is the next of the state bred steaks races.

This is for Phillies that are three years old.

California bred oreside of $125,000 in this one.

The black type here. 6 1/2 on the dirt here.

Barry, I'll let you go first in this one.

Another spot I thought where you could find some value with a

launch up. Yeah, no, I definitely thrown

one downfield using the seven on top sunset.

Crazy. Let's go.

Let's go. Lock of the day.

All right, let's go. I like the cutback and the

switch on surfaces here. It it seems like sprinting is

what this horse wants to do. You know, I I understand why

they tried going on, but the cutback blinkers on the steady

stream of works kind of sets this one up for a real good run

here. The the the pace and error

really sets up for this horse to get a good stop and trip 8 to

one. I think we'll get most of that.

It's an interesting distance to 6 1/2.

It is. It's not quite that short Sprint

where you just get out there and pray no one catches you.

You really got to do the work right.

I I love 7 furlong races for that reason because you can

close into a 7 furlong race. Quite often actually because

it's just that little extra furlong or, or, you know,

however many yards it is that makes all the difference.

When you see some of these, you know, speedy types get to that 6

1/2 point and kind of slow down and that's, you know, it happens

a lot at Keenan. Too.

And if you look at the dam side with sunset grazing, you see the

tis now align. So you understand why they tried

to go longer. Like you said, right is is there

there's obvious forethought of putting this horse in long

response, but this is just a horse that ate to one that's 5

or 6 hitting the board lifetime a couple of wins, frankly, one

of them in the debutante. So in the highest level of a 2

year old races at the end of the year in Northern California is a

California Stakes or is it a California Stakes or not?

Yes, of course it is. This is what we're doing.

So this one makes a lot of sense for me as well.

So I'm glad we laying on the same one there.

That's very interesting to me. Next to her is Hot Girl Walk at

5:00 to 1:00. Let's go.

How do we do that to go is did we go 1/2?

You did go. I don't think we've ever done

that. No, I don't think.

No chance. Yeah.

Oh, wow. I I I like.

Horses like this that come off the layoff run a race that's

similar to what they were doing before.

And they breakthrough, the younger the better.

And she was a little tired last time.

At this time, all she's got to be is a little bit better to be

right in it. This might be a an exacto box

kind of play that I would love because you're going to get all

of 2530 to one. That's the kind of number that

I'm looking for here. So 76 for ME76 for Barry and

Race 6 on Santa Anita Derby day. Who is your third horse here?

Thank God. OK, All right.

I was going to retire. You went to the four, I went to

the three. I went to Hector Barriers and my

pipe here. back-to-back wins here.

Coming out of the maybe win tries against winners for the

first time. She gets that done.

But guess where? It's on the turf.

Got to try the dirt here. Simply don't know what that's

like. Put her in the third spot for

that. Reason in the air tonight is

just a dead closer who I think might it's better than most of

these horses and can pick up these.

You take it off with the falls apart, that kind of thing.

That's what we're looking. For there you go Race 7 starts

that pick six that we mentioned earlier $2.00 and it is

traditional good take out rate on that one.

This is another state bred maiden special 6 furlongs on the

turf here for a three-year old Phyllis in this one say Bella is

going to come in of one horse as the favorite ran second last out

in her first try ever on of course.

And Barry, I went long shot, long shot here in this race, OK.

I landed on the two straight. No, no, it's happening again.

On top though, I do too. Oh oh oh man, I didn't know

that. Yeah, this horse has some.

Pedigree, of course. No, no, it should be a lot of.

Precociousness on the turf like this speed.

It's producer Zach. Producer Zach, get over here.

I'm scared I need help. You're in my head.

Get Louis out of my head. I'm scared.

We picked on top the same 1212, the same in the last race.

That never happens. I I in fact, I do this show with

Barry because we don't handicap the same.

Exactly. Yeah.

No, it's we're just bums. I'm sorry.

I didn't mean to bother you. You can go enjoy last year or

evening. I'm sorry, Sir.

Live radio striker did. Did the morning light maker not

notice the workouts? The Did they not notice that

Ryan Hansen wins 23% of his first starts?

Did they not notice that he and Kazushi Kimura have started to

get together at 20%? Did they not notice that he wins

in general in maiden specials at 14% and this is a step down from

a normal open space special? Did they not notice these

things? They must be or they must not

have. But we did.

Which means probably the post going to and we're not.

Well, what? Look at that, second to last

workout is from the gate. It's 4 furlongs sub 48.

You love a good fast workout out of the gate like that.

What does this horse need to do in this spot?

He needs to. He needs to get one again, man.

Yeah, because it's. His first try, he can't pass

eight horses or something needs to go do it.

All right, who's your second horse?

Let's terrify the audience. He's the four tight squeeze

alright. Thank God.

You know, there's sort of prancelots in the state.

Bred races are are always interesting because they seemed

like they bred this horse to everybody they could find.

I mean, he's a he's a busy boy, but it gets a lot of runners.

Funny enough, if it works, it works, bro.

I think this one for Sadler makes a lot of sense here.

The the horse has a nice steady stream of of Sadler like works.

Yeah, right. Gets top rider in Hector

barriers who does good work on the dish.

So I'll give that one a shot in a in a race that's really wide

open. I thought Maria Tall Chief last

out January, her run with Kyle Frey.

I actually like the move to Armando IU.

So I think he's making himself one of those guys.

Watch his numbers vary because I this is something we should

start charting. Actually for this show.

His wins right now in 175 races is 21.

His 2nd place finishes right now in 175 races is 32.

So 11 more seconds, I would like to start watching that ratio to

see if it's just a timing thing and the winds start to click,

you know, just a little bit. For Armando, I think that's a

realistic thing. He made the move, of course,

from Northern California when the Golden Gate closed.

So the number one, his win percentage based on the kinds of

mounts that he's getting is already very good.

This horse last out missed by 3/4 of a length, did Maria Tall

Chief, and so I'll use her in that, in that second spot.

Man, I think 12:50 on that horse is a gift, an absolute gift for

Phil Demonto. Yeah, no, if you get it.

I, I mean, I think this, this race is going to be bet a lot

strangely OK. I mean, because even the outside

horse #12 enjoy. Yeah, has some pedigree.

I I know the horses hung out wide, but Cesar de Alba isn't

like a bad horseman or anything. No, he trains good horses.

This one has a nice bullet work too.

I looked at this horse they're working at the horse working at

low Sal I'd. Give him a shot in the Super.

I'd give him a shot. Here we give, we talk all the

time about turf horses translating well to low Sal.

Why couldn't it be the other way around?

The answer is, of course it could be.

So. Yeah.

No, I'm with you. I That's an interesting race,

man King. Joy, I mean.

Yeah, that's a tough one. That's that's the one.

I don't know how you play the pick 6 on Saturday because of

that. I get it with the Santa Anita

Derby, if you have a really strong opinion, but that race,

you'd have to have a real strong opinion if you wanted to go

skinny. But race 8 will follow another

maiden special, another one for Cal Breads.

This one is for three-year olds. We're going 6 furlongs on the

dirt, 65,000 in the Kitty here. It's probably my turn to go

first here. Barry, 12 is my top pick as I go

for another long shot here at 8:00 to 1:00.

This is another Ryan Hansen. Maybe I need to stop picking

Ryan Hansen's. We're throwing the blinkers on

this one, and I'd like the idea that maybe just a little bit of

distraction in the stretch because this horse was part of

the equation, was part of the lead at the top of the stretch

and faded out when he got by the grandstand.

And I wonder if we're throwing the blinkers on to get rid of

some of that distraction, especially on a Santa Anita

Derby day when there's going to be a lot of people there.

It's going to be a crowd, right? And so that's a real thing.

I also trust, you know, that Aguilar Hanson combination here

quite a bit. Maiden's second starts for him,

17%. Give me this one man.

It's I'll take it. Yeah, plus you get a glimpse of

of what this one might do because bro bro beat this horse.

Oh, fair enough on February 15th.

So that might be an indicator. Make note.

But this, this race is anonymous.

That's really wide open. Oh, there's going to be, there's

going to be someone making a lot of money on Saturday, Saturday,

no doubt about it. Yes, I know.

The fields are big and and there's a lot to to throw at.

I ended up with the 8 non domicile.

It just seems like this horse is loaded.

If you just look at the workout pattern, especially that last

work, you know this horse is running 5 for a long 5 for a

long steady diet of those and then the sharpener at the end,

the 36 and three handling from the gate.

It. It just seems like they know

what they have here. This horse is quick and I expect

this horse to go wire to wire to be honest.

Wow. OK, all right.

So that's the eight non domicile first timer.

Yes. OK.

All right, Speedy. There you go.

Plus you get, you know, a little Umberto a little barrel.

He's. The guy out there now, you know,

especially at at this point where everybody's all around the

country right there, their Derby.

Mountain yeah he gets him and Wan and ran like yeah there's

only a couple right that's why they.

Kimura out there. Now, well, you got Kasushi for

sure. I, I, I think a lot of Antonio

Hector we talked about of course as well, but I want to watch

those Armando numbers as he moves up and mounts and you know

that kind of stuff as well. I think he's really good and

I've got him second in this one. Maybe 50 last out in the state

bred ranks. Horse looked great in January.

Need a little bit of time here. Not a problem out of the corner

barn for my opinion or in my opinion and so looking to that.

1 scratched out. Of that distant fleet race that

we ended up landing in that winter, you know, and that horse

is ultra quick and I don't think this horse Western Freedom would

have beat that one that day. OK, but this horse is super

fast. It's probably will be right up

with the with the leaders early. So the aid has to get in front

of that one. Late pick four starts with race

9 going down the hill again. 6 1/2 of course, or about 6 1/2 as

it always says in the form $67,000 allowance here for non

twos and for state Reds here. I thought a very fun field here

as well, Barry. I did not go long shot here

though did land on Roberto who we just mentioned coming out of

a 6 1/2 flat race. This is one that has not tried

the distance technically if you will, but it gets to keep Lasix

here. I thought was a big, big part of

the step forward here for this horse.

I know I'm boring here, but I'll trust you better with that now.

Yeah, I mean off A2 year layoff gets a 20 point buyer jump that

that's definitely something you got to make note of.

I'm skeptical, you know two years off runs a race like that.

I'm not sure the horse can pair up, but you never know.

Fair enough. I I definitely give this horse a

shot because I use it for 3rd. Mark Blatt, by the way, second

off these kinds of layoffs, has 141% of his last 29 starts.

So this is what he does. It is.

So that's part of why I'm leaning on this as well.

Yeah. But I'm gonna go against.

That I don't get it. 59 percent is the other.

One, and really only because of that step, right?

Yeah, OK. Yeah, because other people are

going to notice. It too, exactly.

And and they're going to gravitate, and this was going to

get that down, but we're going to zag.

Little Zig, Little zag. I'm Zig.

I ended up on the 8th, Piper's Causeway.

I I mean, this horse's turf races are really good.

Doesn't get on the turf often. You'll see in the in the racing

form, there's four races, but all of them, the horses right

there ready to win. Yeah, this is, this is a low Sal

evening horse. Yeah, exactly.

But but run is really good races.

On the turf. And and.

And we're seeing more of the Orongo runners make their way

over from Los Altos around San Anita as well.

And this is a good race for this kind of horse because there's

really not much. They kind of all do the same

thing a little closer. There's a lot of question marks

with the turf runners here, so I can give that one a real good

chance in this race because it's going to sit the trip.

Also, you know, if the pace ends up being a little slower, this

horse might be on the lead. So there, there's a lot to like.

I have him third in my handicapping.

I have the seven right alongside here in Smiling Beast, go back

to Armando IU. So for this one horse has one at

six furlongs but on the dirt, trying turf for the first time

here. But that's something that Brian

Corner does at 19%. And so I think the angle there

makes enough sense that we tried that Smiling Tiger.

We've seen many of the Smiling Tigers run in California and run

really well on the turf, so I would not be surprised.

He's kind of their candy, right? I think, like, you kind of don't

know what the kids are going to do, right?

Yeah, but they're going to be good.

Yep. They're going to figure out,

you're going to, you're going to have to figure out the puzzle,

but they're going to get good at it whenever it is.

And so, yeah, that one stood out to me as well.

That, by the way, starts the turf Pick 3.

That's why, by the way, that's part of why it's going to pay

stats. Yeah, that, that, that race is,

is a dozy. That is a dozy of a first race.

It's funny with the 6 1/2 down the hill and the flat 6 1/2.

Yes, they're two totally different races.

And you'll see it in the racing form with the how, right with,

with how the horses run. You'll see horses just run

really good down the hill and terribly on the flat so far and

vice versa. It's just crazy how that

happens. I end up throwing one downfield

using Chrome flash for second. This horse closes on 6 horse.

The 6 1/2 downhill runs pretty good race that last February 2nd

and and was a much improved race from the last one on the same

surface. So we'll give that one a shot

down the hill to to at least pick up the pieces and get in

the money with some some value. Heard you say way crazier things

than that. Oh, yeah, Race 10, that's just

over there. Yeah, right.

Race 10 is the Santa Anita Derby.

It is a Grade 1 and there's a half, $1,000,000 in the pool for

this. It's a mile and an eighth on the

dirt. There it is 4 three-year olds.

There are five horses in this field.

Barry, let's go ahead and slow down, make the case for and

against every horse in this field.

Let's just go numerically, OK. And it's it it it's going to

ruin it a little, I think. But journalism is the one.

He was terrific last out in the Grade 2 San Felipe.

That was at the beginning of the month of March.

Excuse me. He beats Barnes by almost two

lengths after overtaking him in the stretch.

He won the low S fraternity before that.

Prior to that, he broke his mate at Delmar.

We've seen him do it at three different tracks over two turns.

I think he's very likely to win this race and I think the case

in his favor is far outweighs the case against.

Yes, absolutely, yeah. Yeah, What is the case against

Barry? Go ahead.

I just. Made the case against would be

him regressing off that one O 8 buyer and running a little bit

slower and that probably might be not the plan, but that

wouldn't hurt anybody's feelings I'm sure.

Especially when they don't want to win their best race in the

San Anita Derby, they want it in the Kentucky Derby.

So I wouldn't expect him to be all out.

But. Pure talent he just might have

flat out better than these horses and win anyway.

That's that's kind of where I'm at with him.

He's just the dude. Yeah, I remember a couple years

ago, and if people are watching Louisville, they'll remember

this very well. But Booger MacFarlane went on

national TV and said Louisville's just Lamar Jackson

and a bunch of dudes, and everybody got really mad.

But Booger MacFarlane was right. He was right.

And it's OK to say out loud he was right.

I do wonder if we find out on Saturday it's journalism and a

bunch of dudes. He.

Sure looks like, I mean, I it kind of a little reminiscent of

how California Chrome was dominating out.

There it feels like Chrome God, that's the best one I was trying

to that's it it's the Chrome Yeah, right.

I mean they. Couldn't beat him and and and

journalism feels that way. Like same style too right?

Same style you. Want to beat him but he just

keeps running by all the. Best runs past you, Citizen

Bowls and the two cool stat here.

The last three horses before him to win the Breeders Cup Juvenile

and then win their first start as a three-year old.

Two of them won the Kentucky Derby and one of them was

essential quality. I'll take any of that if I'm an

owner. A win in the Derby or essential

quality. Spectacular Citizen Volt just

did that. This is the kind of company

we're talking about talking about Nyquist.

We're talking about St. sets. That's the kind of company that

he's in when essential qualities the loser in that group, which

he isn't. That's how good the that's how

good the company is here Barry are is here's my take.

Here's my take on all the Derby rankings and everything else.

Wildly underrated. What Citizen Bowl has done

wildly underrated. Yes.

OK, OK, that's my we haven't seen him.

We haven't we didn't see him in A50.

We forgot about him right. That's it.

That's exactly it. We forgot about him.

I I love the setup here for him, by the way, even if he runs

second, I will use him in the Derby.

Really. Yes.

Yes, because Baffert's setting him up to be second off the

layoff in the Derby. Yeah, and.

He's going to, he's going to be a front runner.

I Yes, of course. Yes, I will absolutely use it.

No, I I can't, I can't make a case against him.

I I mean, can he win tomorrow? Yes.

I absolutely. OK.

Absolutely. You can run them off their feet.

Yes. And that's probably what they

want to see. They're going to try to do Yep,

it's going to be tough. He he can wing it unless Barnes

presses him, which. Is the only real thing that can

happen here. I don't think that's.

Going to happen. I don't think he's fast.

Enough early. Yeah, I don't think so either.

I I think Barnes wants the same trip journal going to get.

OK. I agree.

And journalism's just better as it.

Right. OK.

You were very high on Barnes coming out of the San Felipe.

Are you still very high on that? Yes.

OK, yes. Can.

He win here. Absolutely.

I think you can if, if things shake out the right way, I mean

any one of those horses, the the four, the two or the one, if

things go one way or another, that'll determine who's in the

winner's circle. But it wouldn't be a knock

against either any of them because they're they should

really make all make the Derby that would make the best Derby.

But I think they're all going to make it.

Not by the points, just the reduction.

One of the staffers wasn't going to make it anyway, so Yep, I I

think you put it would have pulled one of them off unless

they both just ran super and you just had no.

Choice. I think it's worth mentioning

about both Barnes and Citizen Bowl that they both in their

most recent starts finished ahead of Rodriguez.

Citizen Bowl by two or three and three quarter lengths over a

mile. By the way, he ran away with the

Lewis this year, just ran away with it.

He was spectacular. Baffert's response after that,

the the face of a man who knows when he has what he has.

He had that. Face, I got to see it again.

Oh he did. He did.

Like a shimmy. Dude my man back was shimmying.

He's doing the he was he? Did without the bad spending

habits? Whatever.

It's a thing. But Barnes finished ahead of

Rodriguez by 9 1/2 lengths, and Rodriguez is the favorite in the

wood. And journalism is probably the

best of those 3. I don't know, I don't think

robbery is going to be favorite in the wood, but.

OK, but he is. He's definitely going to be an

impact player, that's for sure. Well, he'll be top two or three

betting. Oh yeah, OK, OK.

But 9 lengths, dude, over a mile and 16th, that's that's the

distance. By the way, this is the reminder

in in, in the same year that we got Nyquist and Exaggerator, we

also got Whitmore. That's.

True. And the step down in as far as

going two turns and doing the thing from those top two to him

was astronomical. I wonder if that's what it is

here with those three that are in this race and then everyone

else on the West Coast. That's what it seems like.

It feels like it. Feels like that.

And and that's why I was saying, you know, it would be great if

all three of them were in the Derby because that would make it

a better race. But we know at least one of them

isn't. And, you know, depending on what

Rodriguez does, because that one was out working Barnes according

to reports and everything else. So it's really going to be

interesting what Dad Horse does in New York because it might

determine what happens with these two depending on how how

this race shapes out. So if Citizen Bull and Barnes

both lose, Rodriguez wins, then what?

Man, right? It's a good problem to have.

It is a guy. Well, yeah, for for Bedford.

Yes, another New York City, NY city.

So you can get along. Oh, bad.

Are you bad for its assistant tomorrow?

I can't remember. I should be.

I agree actually. Or is height man one another?

I got his guys in the winner circle.

All right, moving on to race 11. By the way, race 10 did start

that late pick three, the buried I love so much $3 minimum on the

wager and only a 15% take out. Very, very friendly for all of

us players and the late double $5 minimum with the 15% take out

as well. Get in on this one.

Go to an optional claimer down the hill again.

How about the down the hill downhill?

Of course, getting that work. Hey work kids, work on Santa

here. Bobby's kitten on my wall in my

living room and it was down the hill.

You damn right it was. That's what's up.

That's the best that I mean, that's really the best course to

win. I I'm so glad that they're

utilizing. It a lot tomorrow I'm I'm not

going to start on when they didn't run on it.

I'm not even going to start because it makes me mad.

I'm not going to start not doing it.

I'm going to go. Through it batting life 6 1/2.

And race 11 down the hill here, it's for Phillies and Bears 4

and up essentially non to lifers at this kind of level.

Barry, I will let you go first but I went chalk but then long

shot in hue. Yeah, I went a long shot, I

guess. I went to the five, Miss

Roberts. It's 1.

You know, what's funny about these horses from Woodbine is I

think a lot of their buyer numbers are a little unduly

inflated. You'll see these horses run 70

nines 80s and then go somewhere else and not even come close to

that number. And it it seems like they may

have to kind of take a look at that and tweak things, but I've

gotten used to it the way it is. But the thing about Miss Roberts

is this horse ran down the hill February 1st and ran really,

really good. Didn't get a great trip, was in

traffic, was all slow, all that kind of good stuff and still ran

like a freight train. Then they went to the flat like

I was just saying, and you see the world of difference.

This horse didn't almost run a step got got out slow, which

usually indicates the horse wasn't physically in shape yet.

So third time off the layoff back down the hill, I think

we'll do the trick. Little class relief coming out

of the wishing well. You're at this spot.

Makes all the sense in the world.

And then that freight train work.

March 28th, 59. Flat 76, Flat 46 and two there.

We go. It's pretty good.

Similar number at six to one for Drayton Van Dyke and George Papa

Pedromo here was shocking. Gray, the 11-6 year old daughter

of Grayson Brandon, that Irish O'Brien last out in the stakes

level, gets to drop back here. Last time she ran down this

course before that she won in a stakes under Antonio Fraser.

So I think she'll get back to that kind of form.

Has hit the board three times and four trips down the hill and

so I like her in the spot, especially at 6:00 to 1:00.

And the 11 doesn't really bother me on the downhill because by

the time they do get down the hill, take that little bit of a

right turn, you can have moved yourself into a decent position

to be ready for that. Who do you have in the second?

Spot I used what might be the chalk and I don't know if it's

Nene Diamond or Nene Diamond. I want to say Nene because he

was a good player in the. NBA he was a good player.

Shout out to all of our Brazilians.

Yes, absolutely. But it just looks like.

I have, I'm going to look it up after the show now.

How many listeners, Zach, do we have?

Do we have subscribers in Brazil?

We. Got to have at least one, right?

We have one person got to have at least.

There's way more. There's too many people in

Brazil. I'm looking after the show.

But we got like, we got a couple, like a couple. 100 in

Poland. Shout out to Poland.

I I yeah, for sure. Those are my people.

Oh, Subs. Fair enough.

Yeah. Keep going.

OK. But it just screams like this

horse could use the push down the hill.

Fair enough. You know the last time was on

the flat and kind of flattened out wide and got beat by our

buddy in in in ash but hung in there and this is a little bit

of an easier spot. So I think maybe diamond fits I.

Don't hate that at all. I went to the three second, how

about that 12 to one here, Edwin Maldonado Rice riding Miss

Mandalay here, 2 back. Go to that ride down the hill

and the horse was in the lead in the very last moments.

Caught at the end there by Tam's Little Angel.

If we can get back to that form, I think that the horse can win

in this spot. 113 and change is definitely a winning time coming

down that hill. We saw her in that race with

Ingan Ash on the flat, but in this case gets to get back down

the hill. I loved her race there.

If we could recapture that form, I think 12:00 one's very fair.

Oh. Yeah, absolutely.

And you'll get that in this race.

Yeah, for sure. Anybody else for?

You. Yeah, I used the 7th for 3rd.

Summer Lake at 20 to one. Honestly, that March 3rd race

last year would win this one. OK, OK, go ahead.

Ball playoff here. Yeah, there's there's some

problems going on and Carla Gaines is using Ricky Gonzales,

somebody she really doesn't mess with too tough.

So I think this might be a run to set up, go run.

OK. But third is is definitely.

Most recent work very fast and so if that what's that's talent

Yeah that's right for sure that's not the question at all

the get out race is a Miller at the end of the card it's on the

turf it's an optional claimer $80,000 price $69,000 nice in of

the purse there for this one for an up another non 2 lifer at

this level a horse named genius Jimmy in here we should probably

just go just with genius Jimmy and cut the episode off be done

on. This.

Yeah, because genius Jimmy is the horse that I like most on

this car. If you did not know that, you do

now. I was setting up a different

joke, but now we're handicapping Go.

He he fits the profile of a horse that I like to use when

they come off the layoff and we talked about it a little bit

earlier and they run a race very similar to their best races

previous or prior to the layoff and genius Jimmy fits that bill

to ATI agree. And I also think this horse

might be able to rate a little bit.

I know they're going to be up against it breaking from the

rail, but there's some other speed in here, namely the five

Red Cross Knight. And if that horse can flank that

one lights out, I think, jeez, Jimmy will get the trip of a

lifetime and win this race. Yeah, he tried.

He tried grade three company didn't work.

But before that did win at this level, came back one ran second

like you said, last out at this level behind Hart headed who's

also going to be in this field. I'm gonna use that horse on top

here, Barry, because he did last out what you told me that genius

Jimmy's gonna do. And he already did it.

And I get 6 to one. And so ran third by a neck and

then first by a neck. And I think if that, I think

that was a very good race, a very fast race, 134 and change

is what you'd need to be at on the mile course over the turf

with San Anita. And so yeah, I'm, I'm gonna sit

on that one again. Splitting hairs between the one

and the 8IN this race. For me it is, and they're 5:00

to 1:00 and 6:00 to 1:00. Dude, I'm just telling you

there's going to be stacks. There's going to be stacks 7-8

this. Weekend there's.

Far. Especially this is a This ends

the turf. Right, pick three.

I do think the 9 Cathal's interesting in here class wise,

yes, as far and Hector Barrios, who I really trust was third in

that race that we just mentioned City Exiles in here, that's more

of the Phil d'amato Juan Hernandez thing.

But again, second off the layoff horse was good but not great.

First time gets to go again in that last out race, so picking

four horses from that last. You know one of the things.

Being a long time horse. Player that over the years and

and this goes to just horse playing in general where you

can't just get into one mode about a certain subject or how

you look at races because when you do that you'll miss things

like for example, the way we treat layoffs now is a lot

different than when we did it in the 90s and early 2000s.

Now it's almost like we can disregard the layoff because

everybody does it. You know, you see Brad Cox run

horses once a month, and back before, we would think that was

a negative, but now it's almost a positive in some ways with

certain trainers. So, you know, it just goes to

show how you have to be a little bit dynamic when you're thinking

about these things. You have to be adaptive.

That's right, yeah. I also think the mile distance

is interesting for city exile because the horse has one in a

mile and 3/8 is a little bit of a plotting type.

But if it gets a little too fast out front, I think you could be

a part of that equation. We got a Brazil joke on the

screen here. Our guy Steve Ungerd is enjoying

ACCEO. Brazilian guy, yes, yes.

That makes you pro Brazil. Yes, for sure.

All right, friend, Wood Memorial tomorrow for us, 11:00 coverage

here. I won't bore anybody with any of

that talk because you can come find us tomorrow for that one.

But I really do appreciate everyone hanging out with us

here in the most Queens of kitchens.

I mean it just is so Jamaica Queens, I can't even help it.

But he's Barry. I'm Louis.

We'll be right back here next week on the horse racing happy

hour and our SoCal Saturdays. Again, check out the Sporting

tribune.com for my written evaluation of the Santa Anita

Derby. A look at each horse we walk

through the field. I give you the scenario that

they need to qualify for the Derby as well.

And so go ahead and check all of that out at the Sporting

tribune.com. Scroll down on the right side of

the page. You'll find that horse racing

tab. How about that?

We got a tab, people. We are moving up in the world,

but for Barry, I'm Louis happy Hunter pointers.

We'll have to figure out something.

Ahead of England. And we'll get it to it for you.

We'll promise, right? Let's go to the horse racing APR

Little Cal Saturday. See you next week.