Keeneland Saturday | JD Fox

All right, you know what time it is.

It's time for the horse Racing happy hour.

It's April 10th of 2025 edition of the program.

Lou, your bow and JD Fox hanging out with you this evening ahead

of I'm calling it, Jenny Wiley Saturday at Keeneland.

JD just so you know, because the Lexington has turned into a

Preakness prep, which is fine. It's not a bad, not a bad spot

for it to be in, but it is no longer a Derby prep, at least

for 2025 purposes. How are you by Fred?

Been a long time since you've been on the happy hour.

It has been a long time since I've been on the happy hour.

I I had a lot more control of the happy hour when I was

involved. I must say, it's a little weird

being on this on this side of things.

I'm sure it is JD Fox, of course, available at horse

tickets. One of my favorite pick five

players in the entire country, him on the him West of the

Rockies and my God, Johnny PE of the Rockies, of course have them

both on the show. Really appreciate you jumping

on. You're going to be at Keeneland

this weekend. You excited to at least be back

in the bluegrass? Check out Keeneland a little

bit. Yeah, no, it's, it's honestly,

it's been a couple years since I've been to Keeneland and

that's always a terrible thing to say.

I know it's, it's shocking off for me too.

But yeah, it took, took some time off because I was, I was

doing the whole Kentucky circuit for a long time.

And you know, sometimes you got to switch it up and go to other

tracks and other places. But back in in Kentucky this

year quite a bit and, and happy to be at Keeneland and, and what

is, you know, weather permitting, you know, looks like

a pretty good weekend to racing. Yeah, it should be all right, as

long as you don't get the weather we had here a week ago,

JD, where we got a foot of rain in three days, literally a foot.

I was there Tuesday for the Bluegrass, and I was very

impressed with how well the turf course had held up because they

ran everything. They didn't.

They didn't take a single race. I was.

I thought about it too, but you know how this is on the big

days, like a bluegrass day, tons of people just want to win on

Bluegrass Day, right? I mean, they just want that.

I was just up in New York for wood day.

People just want to win on Wood Memorial Day.

So I'm sure they they kept them on for that purpose.

But man, I've been very impressed with the turf course.

So hopefully the weather will hold up as well.

But of course there, you know, JD, it is the, the time of year

where we start to understand who's going to be in the

starting gate for the Kentucky Derby. 2 runners from the UAE

will have a Japanese starter as well.

And then the low, the low bar for points this year, really,

really remarkable. We're going to miss out on a

Baeza, for example, coming out of the San Anita Derby.

Do you have a top five here? Is there anyone that's not going

to run in the Derby that you wish were that kind of thing?

Yes, so my #5 horse is somebody who is not going to be in the

Derby, but it's a hard pick. It's it's Render Judgement and

it really, you know, it, it's all about for me and somebody

who I think did so much for racing, you know, Dream Walk and

Farms is on that ownership line. So Toby Keith's on that

ownership line. It would have been really cool

if there was a way. I mean, we need, we need six

horses to scratch and we need like 4 of them to scratch in the

next week. So I don't think it's going to

happen. But Render Judgement, you know,

just came up short on Saturday. It is what it is, but a good

story. I like the horse going forward.

So #5 It's a hard pick just because Toby Keith, I mean, he

basically saved the Oklahoma breeding industry.

He did a lot for Remington. And you know, people will miss

his music and some of the other things he did, but he was such a

big part of horse racing. So just there at the number 5

spot #4 will, will be a little more sane.

I have Sandman at #4 and you know, again, it's, it's a case

of, you know, a lot of a lot of cool connections and stories

with, with Sandman, but you know, just getting the job done.

I I, I think the Arkansas Trail maybe didn't end up being as

strong as we all thought it was going to be headed in, but

Sandman obviously dominated there through the winter,

dominated in the Arkansas Derby. I I think Sandman is definitely

a horse that can hit the board. I don't know if Sandman can win

with the top three horses that I have here.

All right, so Sandman at 4:00 will definitely be in the

starting gate off his win in that Grade 1 Arkansas Derby.

Who do you have in your top three?

So Sovereignty is number 3 for me and, and I know sovereignty

is, you know, one or two on on most boards right now, but three

for me, you know, Fountain of Youth stakes winner off the

pace. I just want to see I just want

to see the draw. Honestly, I think Sovereignty is

the most draw dependent of the top contenders.

And so sovereignty #3 can sovereignty win this waste race?

Certainly. But based on, you know, I, I

think we'll be far back. Yeah.

How many horse you have? The draw you have a staff?

That's a really important question for the Derby.

I agree with you. Yep.

How about #2 where? Where are we?

We're going through J DS Derby, top five on the happy hour.

Oops, I'm getting. I have, I have a degree.

I have a degree in this Louie. I I don't, I have a degree.

That's true. Yeah, go ahead.

So, so journalism, you know, I was doing a Santa Anita Derby

broadcast on Saturday and the spot journalism was in, you're

like, journalism's done. And then journalism won so

easily. And I, I was at journalism's

previous start at Santa Anita and just a classy horse, big

heart. And that's what we're seeing

right now with journalism. I I don't think there's a

situation that journalism can be put in that he's not going to

come running hard. Yeah, he'll be in that super

facta is almost, you know, one of those things that you're just

going to be relying on. I imagine by the time we get to

that first Saturday in May, we're going to drum roll here

because JD, there are lots of options for for #1 here that I

think people are trying to figure out where you're going to

go since journalism and sovereignty, who seem to be at

the top 2 for many, many people here on the board still.

Burnham Square. Rodriguez, who won the Wood, of

course, Burnham Square coming out of Tuesday's Lexington or

excuse me, Bluegrass Stakes, Tis Tastic coming out of the New

Orleans route, of course, and then Tappan St. wins the Florida

Derby. Where did you land #1?

And the answer in that case is E none of the above.

Let's go. I love this guy.

Luxor Cafe and and here. And here's the big thing for me

here, the UAE Derby only just made me love Luxor Cafe more.

You look at it at Admirer Daytona and Dawn in the Mood who

finished one and 1st and 3rd in the UAE Derby and Luxor Cafe ran

them absolutely off their feet in the last common appearance

last month. Obviously Luxor Cafe didn't get

the competition in the Fucurus recruiter youth sakes.

I'm I'm terrible with the Japanese steaks names.

I apologize in advance, but Luxor Cafe looks to be the

Japanese Derby horse. And I've said this for a couple

years and really Louis, you know, we, we saw this breeders

stuff and talked about this is, is, we've seen it time and time

again anywhere in the world on dirt.

The Japanese horses are bringing it.

They just haven't brought it the first Saturday in May.

And you know, this is a year where I think we've got the

strongest contender that we've had and we've got a contender

that is shooting up a lot of boards.

I know Byron King over at Blood Horse has Luxor Cafe at #5 in

his in his rankings this week, so.

Yeah, Byron, I've been doing the the Derby dozen for years for

sure. One of the authorities on that

kind of ranking Luxor Cafe, especially after we got forever

Young and TO password in the top five last year.

I mean TO Password ran his ran his face off race last year, JD

And so yeah, I, I, you and I are very much of the same opinion.

We talked like you said at Del Mar, at the Breeders Cup about

this, which was at some point they're going to breakthrough.

This is going to happen, frankly, forever.

Young could, I mean what the the Derby's another 5 feet longer

and he doesn't get bumped into by Sierra Leone, probably wins

anyway. So certainly the Japanese are

not the right path. Yeah, no.

And, and I think really it's, it's the the breeding over in

the, you know, Japan and Australia right now.

It's it's very American centric pedigrees.

American Pharaoh is doing everything.

We've got day two of the championships at Randwick this

weekend. You're going to see American

Pharaohs up and down that card. You're seeing a lot of American

Pharaohs in Japan, a lot of American Pharaohs in in South

Korea. I mean, American Pharaohs have

been producing all over the world more so than they've been

producing in the US, for sure. Yeah, it's interesting, right?

It is funny how that works out. JD Fox with us at horse tickets

on the socials. Go find him there.

And of course, if you see him at Keeneland this weekend, give him

a really hard time. I'd appreciate that very much.

But we do want to talk Keeneland when we get there.

But first, you're Oaks horses, man.

This is the the old Louis special.

Of course, we've got a A what feels like a superstar here in

good cheer. Certainly if people have her in

the number one spot, JD, I'm sure you wouldn't object to

those kinds of things. But I do know that, you know,

it's something that we've talked about on this show for a very,

very long time. Fall in love with the Phillies.

They're gonna race for a long time.

You know, if Thorpito Anna were a colt, we'd never see her again

for sure. Right.

I mean, that's she's the obvious most recent example.

Certainly idiomatic. Fell into that as well by

running at 5. Where do you land here, man?

Let's go. Maybe top three on the Oaks here

so we can get you into the handicap.

Yeah, so my top three was going to be the top three horses other

than the the horse you mentioned Good Cheer.

I think you know, good dolphins got a home run there.

I I think it's going to be very tough for anybody to be good

cheer. I think good cheer is also going

to be a very, very heavy single in all the military race exotics

on Friday when it comes to folks day.

So we're going to talk about where we're going outside of

that. I like.

It. Yeah, so, so 3 for me there

would be 5G if you're, if you're taking good cheer out.

I I think 5G really the Gulfstream Park Oaks was kind

of, you know it, it didn't return the same number as the

honeybee where obviously she finished second in that one cash

run. Steaks I think was her most

impressive visual performance so far, but nothing wrong with that

Gulfstream Park Oaks run. And I think the Gulfstream Park

Oaks has been kind of a slept on race in terms of the oaks trail

the last few years. And I really think that a horse

is going to jump up from there and take it.

So 5G there. I I think you you got to look at

quiet side next, obviously back-to-back with the the win.

And I said the impressive number in the honey bee and then, you

know, came out in fantasy and kind of even went over the top

on that number. Had the Churchill experience.

It wasn't a win, but it was a good second.

The Goldenrod, knowing the course I think is important in

these early Oaks races when they're when you've got a bunch

of horses there, that will be first time on Churchill.

You cannot say that about Quiet side.

So quiet side was there and I mean Lacarra, you know, the

Ashland, I mean that was just that was just such an impressive

visual performance and the number came back well and

obviously needed to come back. The Devona Dale was kind of a

clunker, ended up being a lot slower race than what we all

thought. The number was very low there,

kind of a return to form in the Ashland and I think Lakara is

your best exact, a partner or far and away the best horse.

Good cheer. I was going to say, do you think

of, and obviously we're not, we don't know the field for the,

you know, the the American turf or for the mile or whatever

else. But is your assumption that the

biggest favorite and or the most singled horse in a late sequence

on Derby weekend will be good cheer?

My sense is yes. Yes, I think that's, that's a

fairly I, I mean, that will be very interesting to see how the

Pat Day mile field ends up coming out because there's a

certain Baffert horse that I think is going to take an

absolute ton of money in that spot.

He starts with AC, ends with an N.

You might know of that horse having run in Arkansas.

JD Fox with us hanging out horse racing Happy.

Our April 10th edition of the program ahead of Lexington and

Jenny Wiley Stakes on Saturday at Keeneland.

We're presented today by my friend Jason Shepard at J

Shepard Cigars, Bartstown Rd. If you happen to be coming to

town for the Kentucky Derby, it is the best tobacconist near

Churchill Downs. About a 10 minute drive from the

Highlands straight over to Churchill Downs, or frankly

about 10 minutes to the shuttles if you need to catch the shuttle

to go to the Oaks or Derby. So go go say hi to our friend J

Shepherd over at J Shepherd Cigars.

You can find him on Bardstown Rd. in the Highlands

neighborhood of Kentucky. Buy 3, get one free.

If you mention Louis, it's the world is very, very simple.

So if you got a group going to the track for a couple of days,

go check out our guy Jason over there at J Shepard Cigars

Keeneland Saturday. We get into it now, our

handicapping section of the show.

Of course, race 7 will start the late pick five.

It's made special 6 1/2 on the dirt there.

This is for three-year olds and we're running for $110,000 on

the dirt here. JDI was I was smiling because

you and I landed on different horses for a fair amount of our

handicapping this race. I think we were the most

similar. But after seeing some of the

bombs today, does that affect you at all?

How you're going to handicap for Saturday or you just looking

card to card? I'm just looking card to card.

I I think there was definitely bias.

There was a, there was a speed bias early and speed held on.

And then when we get more moisture, we'll see how it goes.

I think, you know, we're going to see some more rain overnight.

I think the track will end up drying out a little bit late

Friday into Saturday. I think it'll be a more fair

setup than it was today with the, I think 6/10 of a rain

overnight at Keeneland right overnight Wednesday into

Thursday. So I'm not necessarily looking

at that. It's a few days away.

It's it's kind of a different experience now.

If we see speed do well the next two days and the track

conditions be the same, then maybe I'll change my tune and

change the story, which is why we've got a couple days to

change these tickets if we need to.

Louis. Oh, that's exactly right.

Who do you have in Race 7 here that made special that I

mentioned before? So my top pick here and again,

this is a first time starter so I'm going to guess on what the

pronunciation will be. I'm going big truth instead of

big troughs 'cause I don't know troughs, troughs I, I don't

know. But the seven horse six to one

on the morning line for Brian Lynch, we'll have Luis sigh as a

board. I'm more Sarah Lynn and and the

story of the dam here I think is the most interesting part to me.

So the dam sold for 2:50 as a wing lane, 470 as a yearling and

1.3 million as a 2 year old in training at FASIC Tipton.

Ran a grand total of once finished second was retired, was

sold privately. Then this horse sold at the cell

and then Colleen Shaw, who was the original owner of, you know,

that spent $1.3 million on this horse, spent another $285,000 to

get the dam back. So as a broodmare, So it it's a

very interesting, you know, very connected family, good pedigree,

you know, strong win first pedigree and you know, coming in

off of a a bullet two weeks ago going 47 flat out of the gate at

Palmettos. I mean, there, you know, Lynch

has not been really firing well 8% with first time starters

recently. But I, I do like, I do lay in

there as a topic, you know, and I've got two other horses, but

I'm, I'm curious who your, who your top selection is in this,

in this spot. On a different first time

starter, I went to the William Walden first time starter in the

two and it's mostly for that first time starter stat that you

just mentioned with Brian Lynch. I think a lot of Brian Lynch

obviously, but with first time starters, it's simply not how he

operates up here. Brian's more of a second start

guy. Rusty Arnold's more of a second

start guy. That's my sense in Kentucky with

this kind of horse. I think fact in this case, and

you mentioned it, the break from a bullet break from the gate

workout last out. That speaks to me.

I like those kinds of things. A full 5 furlongs in under a

minute. To me, that does stand out as as

a reason to to push this one. And frankly, we're watching

these Instagrams try to qualify for for the for the Derby go to

turns. That's not what they do.

I think 6 1/2 is perfect for fact in this spot.

But yeah, so I landed on the two another first time starter.

So at least we agree on that. But I know we've got very

similar handicapping after that. Yeah, and so one thing I'll say

on fact to the half sister to Esteo Talatoso.

So a great steak winner as a half there.

So that's that's good to see. But yeah, I'm 1/7/10 for the the

my my three horses for my pick 5 ticket.

Belly Humor first place horse from debut just finished third

beaten 4 and a quarter Wednesday card at at at at Keeneland.

Dan was a multiple graded stakes winner and one of my favorite

places to see multiple graded stakes winners.

Peru. But obviously the other

interesting thing is she Valiant Humor had an old or had had an

older brother who sold for $750,000 and has ran his entire

career in Japan, 3 victories and is a stakes horse and has ran in

Korea and Japan. These are only the notes you're

going to get from me, Louis. I, I, I, I did like the the

first effort and, and I think, you know, strong come back here.

And then the 10 Nantucket Megalodon finished second in the

rush away. And obviously for Josie Carroll,

we're going to see Megalodon in a bunch of stakes races at

Woodbine coming up later this year.

Discotheque has been a horse I've been chasing.

Nantucket finished just by Discotheque.

Discotheque just ran second again at Gulfstream Park, which

I believe is the fourth straight time Discotheque has ran second.

I I'm not as concerned about this switch from synthetic to

the main track for Nantucket in this spot.

Yeah, I, I think the switch is not a big deal, especially for a

guy like Rudy Bruce, who, who does this frankly, right.

He's he's more and more horses at Turfway.

A real sense of which horses are gonna be ready to run here.

Just one obviously that wasn't ready to run as a 2 year old.

I totally agree on and talking, by the way, I love that 8 to 1

price. And there's I think there's a

chance that we'll get close to that maybe 6-7 to 1, something

like that, JD by the time we get to the gate with that horse in

particular. But yeah, serious ownership

group, serious connections there.

And I do think now I love the second starter angle for sure.

And so, yeah, I I was 2110 here, you were 7110.

I think as similar as we're going to be the rest of the

show. JD Fox with us here on the horse

racing happy hour. We're talking about Keeneland

Saturday. We move on to race 8, which is

an allowance mile on a 16th on the turf there, there at

Keeneland 120,000 and the kid here, non 2 lifers.

This is Phillies and Mares 3 three years old.

Excuse me, essentially all the conditions, but haven't won a

second big race here. And I'll let you go first again

here in this spot, JD. But I thought this was one where

I really had to search for a top pick.

I felt that this was a pretty balanced race.

Yeah. And and where I'm seeing it is

is value in that two of the three horses I'm going to have

on my pick 5 ticket are going to be double digit odds.

But my top selection is the 2 Always Forever for Brad Cox.

We'll have Manny Franco aboard. I'm going back to Ellis Park hot

summer last year, Vixen was favored or excuse me, always

forever was favored against Vixen.

Vixen the next start I got to watch in person at Woodbine

almost win the Natalma just missed and that and that horse

Vixen might be familiar to those paying attention to the King

Lumi Vixen just finished second in the Appalachian.

So this is a very strong race that was coming out of the the

the summer the the last race we Sophomoist forever before.

Getting a long spell on the bench came back and and broke

the maiden fairgrounds late February.

I think this horse, she's really improved growth and maturity

from 2:00 to 3:00. You see it in the work pattern

as well. See consistent works after the

bench. You know, I I think always

forever has got a big shot here as as my top choice.

And again, I like two other long shots.

So I'm very curious to see who you have on top here, Louis.

Chalk Chad Brown the the the the euro shipper.

I just I, I'm, I'm, I'm a total sucker for these things.

I'm also a sucker for Flavia and Pratt.

I I won't I'm not going to go deep into this.

I I'm just I'm going to trust the euro shipper and the Chad

Brown. I think this is not an

unintentional start. I think the ship to Keelan was

was very intentional. Horse has been there for a full

workout, which means that brown has had her ready for this spot.

I, I got the 11 on top. I do have the two in the second

spot. I totally agree on that horse

and I, you know, as far as I I think that horse at six to one

and probably give me like 4 to 1, seven to two kind of number

unfortunately because of the the Cox angle there as far as that.

But man, I just there's something about the Chad Brown.

I think it just makes too much sense here.

My my second choice here, 30 to one on the morning line for good

Dolphin. Dear Louise, the seven for

Michael Stidham. I mean, look at that race at

Keeneland in the fall on October.

It's basically the two year old equivalent of this condition and

the horse was 7 to 1 and finished third beat in the

length with a 69 buyer. That 69 buyer might win on

Saturday. So I'm just I'm just curious.

Obviously threw in a major clunker.

You know, you got to you got to look past the fairgrounds start

there beaten 23 3/4. Just, you know, faded.

Never really was into the race, but I'm willing to take a chance

to see if we can get the return to form.

Obviously, you know, we're not having Irad Ortiz junior pop

back on this horse like we saw in in in October in Keeneland,

but. I think Tuesday, man, I, he's

going to be fine, yeah. Yeah, I think so as well.

So you know second off the layoffs, second time Lasix,

there's lots of things in the positive direction for this

horse. So 30 to 1, I don't think we're

going to see anywhere close to 30 to one just based off of that

buyer from last year. And the other horse I have is as

an include is the one copy the Princess getting Lasix for the

first time. You know, you go back and look

at Keeneland again in the fall last year and into all company.

It's very green in the stretch, still finished second, beaten a

length and 1/2. This horse's numbers are much

better on turf than the winter numbers on the synthetic surface

at Turfway Park. I think this horse getting back

on turf for Troy Newton, this is this is a big spot.

Obviously we don't have a lot of of stats on Troy Newton and you

might be, you know, scared with the the one for 18 figures so

far on the year. But you know, I I think this

horse is he's she's much better. This Philly's much better on the

turf and getting back to the turf.

So I think it can angle here. So I'm 127.

I I couldn't separate the long prices from the chalk here.

Honestly, Louis and and I had to go.

I didn't want to make a monster ticket so I I went 3D.

Got it. I have a different long shot

here, the six horse Precious Medley for for Kelsey Danner and

this is one that broke its maiden last out at Turfway Park.

And this is a move that we see from Kelsey fairly often over 30

examples the last couple of years and she wins at over 10%

in these out of the Schiza keeps them out here and I really like

that angle here. I also think this horse, if you

look at the maiden run in the fall at Keeneland, over a mile

and an eighth, I remember this race 'cause she was 65 to one in

that race and I remember everyone screaming who is the

6th horse and that horse is flying on the outside and just

didn't get there. 7th by a length and 1/2 this horse breaks

through last time out and it was a full, full breakthrough at

Turfway Park. I I think once in a while these

Phillies get their confidence in a race like that and they wanna

go do it again. If you notice in the in the line

there in her maiden win at Turfway, she stayed a lot closer

to the pace. JD and I think she can do it

again. I think we'll get every bit of

1012 to one on that horse and I think it's a good value in that

spot. JD Fox hanging out with us.

Go ahead. Yeah, I was just gonna say that

that's the first horse I left off, OK.

There you go, good. All right, I feel a little

better now. The Lexington Stakes will be

race 9. Hanging out again with JD Fox at

horse tickets on the socials. Go find him there.

Lexington Stakes would be 20 points for the Kentucky Derby

and it still will be, I guess, but none of these horses can

qualify. But we're going a mile and a

16th. A reminder at Keeneland, there

are two finish lines, so this is the shorter of the finish lines

for this race. Mile and a 16th as I mentioned

on the dirt. 3 year olds, of course, 400,000 in the Kitty

here. A lot of Triple Crown nominated

horses in this spot here, JD so clearly people either trying to

use this as you know, work up for the Preakness or work up for

the Belmont, whatever they want to do or maybe a street sense or

whatever it might be St. sense. What am I saying?

Oh my gosh, is it this No. Oh, what did society man win

last year? Oh, the Matt win.

What am I saying? Yeah, the bat wins like that.

Pray Tour comes in as a 2 to one favorite here, JD, and that just

feels monstrously short in this field, which feels much more

balanced than two to one on any kind of favorite.

This is your single in the pick five sequence.

Who'd you land on? So I'm glad you mentioned the 2

to one favorite. And I think the one issue that

the 2 to one favorite is going to have is the 2 to one favorite

is going to want the trip that everybody else in this race is.

And that's going to be in front or right off this pace.

I think they could cook here. And that's why I'm taking one

last chance. Hipness, you got one more chance

with the blinkers on here. Obviously back-to-back.

Just super disappointing efforts in the Rebel and Louisiana Derby

after just you know, you watch that maiden debut at Fairgrounds

and and you watch it after the the same horse ran in the the

Louisiana Derby and the Rebel and you will think they are

different horses. Obviously, you know, the sloppy

ground might have played into that as well.

We'll see. So if there is a little moisture

in the track, you know, this might even be a a bigger play

for me on a win end. But you know, I really think

you're going to want somebody that can pass horses late in

this race if the track fares out and evens out.

And I think Hipness is is the horse to do it.

As mentioned, blinkers on for Kenny Mcpeak, it's not, it's not

a big angle for him. You know, it's 11% angle for

him, first time blinkers. But I think just keeping Hiptus

focused on the task, not worried about where the other horses

are, just setting up for the one run for Luis Saez.

I really like Hiptus in the spot and that is my single because if

I did not single in this race I would probably have to take all

of the horses. OK there.

OK, there you are. OK, that's what I was wondering.

I'm I'm going to take a a shot on a horse that's not gone two

turns but has gone a mile. And that's Gosger, 7 to 2 here.

So I'm not taking a huge shot. But this Brendan Walsh trainee

breaks his maiden last time in at Gulfstream Park in a maiden

over that one mile, one turn mile.

Excuse me, at Gulfstream Park. We're not doing much more work

than that. It's a son of Nyquist.

I think he's easily going to get the mile in 16th.

And I disagree with you on the closing part of this.

I think you want to be out front right now at Keeneland and I

think with the short stretch, you definitely want to be there.

And so I'll learn more on a horse like that.

I know I'm not getting great value here, but Gosgar will be

my top play here in this one. I am interested in hipness

though. I have hipness second in my in

my handicapping here, mostly because this is a massive class

relief for this horse and you know, not having to run in a

Louisiana Derby, etcetera. Those got Rebel and and you said

it earlier, I think earlier in the Arkansas road to the Derby

when Cold Battle was rolling, etcetera.

That was probably one of the very, excuse me, one of the

better routes to the Derby at the time.

Cold battle was rolling. So to be up the track in that

race doesn't make a lot of difference to me.

I'm interested because Brian Hernandez junior is not on this

horse here. The switch to Louis size really

is interesting to me, which makes me think that they think

either this is either like you said, a last, last resort, last

ditch, you know, opportunity for this horse or that they'll get a

different kind of trip throwing the blinkers on and getting Luis

aboard. And so I've got him second.

Who do you, who would you have second in your in your

handicapping, do you think? 2nd handicapping for me would be

Bullard on the stretch out and, and really I, I think the San

Vicente, you know, Barnes, just, you know, set a good pace there

and, you know, but you look back at the, the Bob Hope, I mean, is

a, is a great 3 winner stepping back against a field honestly

full of, you know, main special weight and allowance types.

So Bullard on the stretch out for Michael McCarthy And, you

know, there's probably not a hotter barn in the country than

Michael McCarthy right now. So we'll see what what this

horse can do with Berto Rospoli. As he mentioned, the Grade 3

winner and the Bob Hope is Bullard's son of gun runner and

of course Mike McCarthy. This year only one starter at

Keeneland but did win 21% of his races to this point overall,

which is not the easiest thing to do certainly where he is

based out Weston in Kentucky at the current time.

The Jenny Wiley is the star of the day.

Grade one on the turf there mile on the 16th.

This is for Phillies and Mares 4 and up and there is $650,000 at

stake. A mix of American based runners

and new to North American runners for this one.

JD lots of moisture in the ground.

Does that play to the EUR at all in your mind?

I think it I think it could, but like you said, the the turf

course has been draining just amazingly and and it looks just

lush and and perfect. So I think if, if we get the

rain stopping as the, as it's projected early in the day on

Friday, you have the rest of the day Friday with a little bit of

wind and then you have Saturday the whole day.

I think we, we could even see, you know, a firm turf listing

and you know, firm turf. You can see firm turf on the

floor for some of these European shippers.

Their definition of firm turf and our definition of firm turf

are completely different animals.

I just always like to remind people they see, they see firm

on a forum for somebody in Europe and like, OK, hey, this,

this horse can can get something done.

No, it's, it's a completely different animal.

So I, I think this is also been a very interesting and very

difficult morning line to set. I think this is probably of all

the legs in this sequence, the one that will have the most

interest win the actual mutuals Open after the previous race.

Because I think honestly, any any of the horses could

probably, you know, have a shot at at being the favorite of this

race outside of maybe the three and the four.

It's very interesting to see where the money will end up here

and I have a very interesting horse.

I was going to say you and I have 6 very different horses

listed here. JD, I'm just going to go 1st and

Get Me Out of the way. I have Kehoe Beach on top.

Wesley Ward, Frankie Natori, This horse was really good in

the Mrs. Revere, last out at Churchill, obviously first start

in 2025. But this kind of layoff for

Wesley Ward, 23%, two of them have won a third of their last

nine races, 3 for 9. This horse has been working

really well at Keeneland, etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.

So Kehoe Beach for me on top seven to two.

I think we'll actually get that price too, which is interesting

because that's a horse with graded stakes wins in the state

of Kentucky. But because we've got the

shippers in Excellent Truth and Choisia, I think those horses

are going to catch considerably more money.

I'm going to include those two as well.

I'm 712 in this race. JDI know it's boring as bleep

but after the end of the day it's still a Grade 1 and I'll

lean on grade one type horses. Very interesting to see.

When Keeneland put out the press release about this race, they

talked about it being a renewal of the rivalry between Be Your

Best and Sacred Wish, two horses that have ran against each other

once. But I think, I think both of

them factor into this place for different reasons, but they're

not my. Shop picks.

You're going to be in the press box Saturday, right?

Amy's going to be like, hey, hey, I'm doing my best with

these releases. Be nice.

You know what? No, no, no, no, no.

I I'm I'm just saying, you know, I I look at a horse, the only

lead and I was going to give give here, Liz.

I look at a horse that lost to be your best last time out as as

my top choice. And that's the nine no show.

Sammy Jo. You know, you look back at the

four year old campaign and what did this mayor do wrong?

Not a whole lot. She kept getting put in tougher

and tougher spots and what did we see?

We just saw the buyer increase every single time and you know,

ended up being, you know, odds on a couple times and then in

the Long Island just coming up short, just missing your best

just able hold on on the front end.

It was a great finish. If you haven't watched the

replay of that race, I really suggest you so Frankie to Tori.

I don't know what he did to get that horse home.

Be your best look dusted and no show.

Sammy Joe just ended up a millimeter short of of winning

that they they say a nose, but that's about as close as you can

get if you look at that photo. So no show Sammy Joe is a is a

no show in the morning wine maker's opinion in in relation

to chances here because 15 to one on the morning wine.

I mean, you're I don't see 15 to one on the morning line here,

even with the shippers coming in.

I'm with you. I'm with you, but I think you're

going to get it. I think you're going to get 15

to one on that horseman. And then obviously Sacred Wish

is another type that can chase down a strong lead.

You know, won the matriarch last year, finished third in the

golden coat and the golden Coba, which is obviously one of the

races lead up to the Breeders cup card out of Del Mar.

So I mean, I think this this horse makes all the sense in the

world. And you know, the the shippers,

it's kind of interesting. We've got a lot of shippers that

have ran a lot of straight courses.

You know, I did have to do like I had to write phonetics down

and I hate doing that. Louis Shawazia, the two I will

say is is pretty well prepared. Five of her seven career wins

are going left-handed as they will go on Saturday.

But I just think coming back from Maidon, that hasn't always

been the key to success. The the horses that leave Maidon

early and come back to the States have not historically

done. Very well.

There's a reason they left early, in other words.

Correct. I mean, that's kind of what

you're good at. Yeah.

OK. Right.

Yeah. And and didn't beat, I mean,

we're, we're talking about two wins in two grade ones, but

beat, you know, beat four other horses twice.

I'll give one long shot that I think if this horse wins, I'll

feel very dumb. And that's poolside with Slim

Jose Ortiz riding for Rusty Arnold.

Second off the layoff here. Horse just ran in the Honey Fox

at a mile. I think at a distance here will

be good for this horse. I know it's only a 16th of a

mile, but if this horse breaks well and is right off of the

leaders, I think this is one that at least part of the exacto

trifecta kind of play on Saturday.

The three poolside was slim. I I that was my my longer shot

here. I don't disagree with anything

you said, by the way. I do think that you know sacred

wish can absolutely win here and it would not surprise me.

No show, no show Sammy Jo would surprise me a little bit.

I won't lie to you, but I would not be surprised by that.

Do you make anything of the other shipper here?

Jabara the the 6th horse here. Yeah, so the Wolverhampton race

was the favorite. You know, it's a very

disappointing effort over 3 going left-handed.

And you know, I think this source is definitely a closing

sprinter type good dolphin. You know, when they place horses

like this, there's obviously some intent here.

I think they want to see if she can get the longer distance.

But I I think this is a horse that we're going to see

sprinting on the turf the rest of the year. 4 year old Philly

going up against some older here.

I think getting getting over to the states was the key thing

here in finding this spot. I don't necessarily think this

is what she wants to do. All right, JD Fox with us.

We'll go to the closer here at Keeneland Saturday.

It is a starter allowance, $50,000 starter allowance, about

7 furlongs, as they always tell us, the two places that are

about 7 furlongs at Keeneland and 6 1/2 down the hill at Santa

Anita. This is starter allowance.

Like I said, 63 of the Kitty here.

Billy's three years old, of course, started for a claiming

price of 50,000 or broke their maiden in an auction race, which

means, you know, a, a, a slightly lower purchase price

for that. Where did you land in this one,

JD? You went as wide as you were

going to go on your ticket with this one.

Yeah, I'm poor deep here and I'm, I'm not a confident poor

deep. My, my top selection is the 2

Autumn Rhythm for Eddie Neely has been running on it.

To be honest, been running pretty evenly.

Hasn't exactly wowed if you go back in and look at the video,

but the numbers and the competition this horse, what

she's been facing Philly at fairgrounds.

I think it's better than what you're seeing the rest of this

field coming back in. You've got a lot of horses

coming from, you know, Turfway. You've got a couple fairground

horses and some horses awesome layoffs.

I I think autumn written this bit 4th up on the on the form

cycle. It's good size aboard.

I know we we I think Curtis is going to be a very good rider.

Just won a big a big race. But I think the improvement

there to Saez going to a 24% job at the meet so far, 17% will

call him here. I definitely he's got a good

shot in my other. My other is between these two

horses for me. Louis is between two and the six

6 Madeline promise obviously coming out the Devona Dale you

know La Cara was in that race wings MG that's kind of sad

story there. We won't get into it, but you

know set the pace faded a little bit.

You know long term is this horse going to like go along?

Probably not just one to turn 7 for a long and.

Yeah, so I have the I went 5:50 in here.

So I agree on the two and the six years at must includes

Zagruda will be the 10 here. This is more just trusting Favia

Pratt in the last race of the day here horse did break its

main go to mile 70 route to Sprint.

By the way for Brad Cox is a 31% angle.

So he seems to know what his horses want to do.

And JD, you know this, the seven furlong distance is a little bit

of a strange one, not quite a Sprint and certainly not a

route, but you know, you can close into the speed, you can be

kind of a consistent runner. And I think this is one that's

going to want to sit right off the pace, make its move later.

That second finish line will be just fine at Keeneland on

Saturday. I agree with you about the two

and the six here you met, you talked about Madeline's promise.

I think the Autumn Rhythm one is is interesting as well because I

think like you said, this horse has one under Louis size before

and that was at Keeneland on going 6 furlongs.

So we're getting back to a place where this horse has really

enjoyed it has been working at Churchill.

We'll ship over for the day. But I think you're right about

Autumn Rhythm that that one will will run well on Saturday.

You did not mention the eight who is also going to be part of

your ticket. Yeah, the the 8 was a very

defensive play here. I mean, this horse has been

facing just so much better, you know, last year as a 2 year old

was in just every two year old major race, you know, last

lines, you know, finished third and good cheer that that good

cheer girl. Of course we were talking about,

you know, she's in that in that form cycle.

It was 9 and 1/4 in the rags to riches that Trevini fell.

And I think this is also a case where the three to two morning

line, I think this horse probably goes off, you know?

5 to 2, three to one sort of deal, I think.

I think this is a chance to, to float up here.

And obviously, you know, Bobby Flay, whenever Bobby Flay is the

owner of the horse and not a the breeder of the horse, that

always is an interesting thing to me.

You know, Bobby likes to race his horses and likes to race

horses that he breeds and it's just very interesting to see him

whenever you see him in the ownership line of a horse that

only cost $40,000. Obviously, you know, they had

big expectations in too long trading sale, yes, and hasn't

shooken out in terms of the win end yet.

But you know, looking at checks, I mean, we're talking about a

horse that is not $60,000 already.

That's right. Nope.

Certainly paying her own way is sure beanie it just one.

I'll I'll I'll tell you I'm I'm just going to try to beat that

horse off the layoff. Maybe she's not ready.

And three to two. You know, you know, and you know

how this works, JD. Where yes, if you by the time we

get to post time, that's three to two will have moved to five

to two or three to 1 potentially.

But in the pick five, people are just going to include that horse

because it's 3:00 to 2:00, right?

And so I'm, I'm just going to use that as a chance to try to

beat her at the end of the ticket.

Here is your pick 5 on screen here, 3 wide, three wide, a

single, three wide and then four wide in the last.

Be honest with us. How much do you think you'll be

adding to this ticket? I think I will probably play

other things and I will probably, you know, play this

for a dollar. I'll play this set for a dollar

and that'll that'll be 108 and then I'll play a lot of pick

threes and and obviously I'm taking a stand that, you know,

you know, a closer is going to be able to win a race at

Keeneland. We didn't see that today.

So, you know, this also is going to be a, a, a potential change

and, and I will, you know, at horse tickets, I will update

this. I will tell you guys what I

punch in plenty of time. I will I'll punch this early in

the in the car and give you guys plenty of chances If you're if

you're following along and want a good sweat.

We obviously have a lot of prices in the sequence.

So if we can get that eight home, I mean, we're when we play

pick fives when at least when I play pick fives at Keeneland,

I'm trying to score big and try to figure out the sequences

where they're going to pay big. And I think this is a sequence

that's going to pay big. You know, when I normally play,

you know, I'm a pick five player.

As you mentioned it, Louis, I take a look at pick 5 fools.

I play pick fives at a lot of exotic tracks.

That's how I generally handle it when it comes to Keeneland.

You can look at the form and say, OK, this is a pick five

that's going to pay $300.00 and this is a pick five that's going

to pay $3000. This is a $3000 sequences.

OK, all right, there you go. That is JD Fox.

You can find him at horse tickets, of course, on Twitter

and different places hold him to his promise of a Saturday post

about his ticket people, but let's make sure that we do that.

Hey, man, safe travels. I I I mean this, you know, and

I'm AI do this a lot on the pod. Appreciate you jumping on man.

It means a lot to me. It does.

So have a great, great travel day man, and have a great time

at Keeneland. Yep, going to hop on my red eye

in a few hours. It's going to be fun.

Going to the airport right now. So yes, we appreciate you very

much JD, and we will catch up. Are you coming to Derby by

chance? Are you going to be at

Churchill? Not the.

Churchill I will unfortunately not be this year, so.

OK. All right.

Well, we'll have to figure out our next our next rendezvous, as

the kids say, the old rendezvous.

All right, brother, I'll talk to you soon.

All right, all right, JD Fox, there we go at horse tickets, of

course, on all the socials. Go follow him there, man.

He's a great follower. Really, really into the game.

He especially JD man, he's a very serious pick five player.

The tickets are exceptional. He's just got a really, really

good acumen for building those, those those wagers out.

And so a guide that you should definitely go check out on the

socials cost you nothing to go check him out.

Zach, are you there, my friend? You can certainly play us out if

you would like to do that. By the way, a reminder if you're

going to be in Louisville for the for Derby week, Tuesday

night of Derby Week, 7:00 with my friends over at Blood Horse,

we're going to be doing our annual Derby seminar at a place

called Blind Squirrel. It's in the East End of

Louisville. We've got the entire 2nd floor

to ourselves. We'll have a bunch of giveaways

and different things at that event as well.

So come on out, come see us Tuesday of Derby week, 7:00 out

at Blind Squirrel Restaurant there in the East End of

Louisville. Again, I want to thank my friend

Jason Shepherd at J Shepherd Cigars for presenting us today

here on the happy hour. Again, buy three, get one.

If you mention me the next time that you are there at J Shepherd

Cigars. This has been the horse racing

happy hour for April 10th, 2025. My name's Louis Ribow, thanks so

much for joining us here on the show.

We'll see you next week as we previous.