Lexington Sat at Keeneland | Barry Spears

Welcome in Barry Spears. A friend of mine just saw him in

New York and glad to have him back on here.

Honorable Co. It's been a little bit since

you've jumped on radio with me, but good morning, Barry.

How are you, man? Hey, good morning.

Anytime I hear Mike Jones on a Friday I I get excited.

Let's go. It's it's a whole thing.

This show is very pro Mike Jones.

You know what we should do? Actually, in this segment?

We should play the Lamar Jackson sound for Barry because I feel

like that's an important horse racing moment.

Just kidding Barry, you and I were at the Wood Memorial at

Aqueduct on Saturday. Rodriguez gets the lead, keeps

the lead. We have seen Baffert's do that

before in the Derby. Do you think you potentially saw

the Derby winner on Saturday? Yeah, actually that of course

won that race, I thought pretty easily.

I agree he really wasn't blowing harder or real tired after the

race, so I would gather he came out of it very good and it's

probably ready to move forward again in the Derby.

My only reservation is his running style, if he can kind of

sit off the pace a little bit or not.

I mean, the way he settled on Saturday you would think he can,

but still have to do it. Yeah, that's right.

Barry Spears with us at Urban Handicapper on Twitter.

And of course he's a sniper. Go find him out there.

You'll find them all over my feed on Twitter as well if you

want to go find him there. I thought with his, you know,

and and look, you got Mike Smith and that's a a big help.

It's a guy rode, you know, probably a couple thousand races

at Aqueduct, whatever. It really did rate the horse

well. But like you said, he seemed to

have multiple speeds on Saturday, right?

And something I always look for with a top, top Derby contender

is, hey, if we need to get you out of the gate, you got to go.

But hey, we need you to kind of settle in too when you're on the

backstretch. Rodriguez did all those things.

Right. And and that's going to help him

a long way, especially even after the Derby, because

sometimes the Derby is just a little bit of luck, you know, of

course, goes one way or the other and it makes all the

difference. I mean, like what happened to

Mystic Dan last year where basically he just kind of got in

perfect position right out of the gate, not as strong as path,

and he kind of made the most of it.

You know, it's hard to gauge with the Derby itself, but those

traits as a racehorse in general are very good.

Barry Spears with us here. Honorable Co on ESPN 680 and one

O 5 seven. You know, the other race that

happened on Saturday, of course, was out West with journalism.

What did you make of him overcoming that trip and and how

do you try to forecast forward from A45 horse field to a 20

horse field? It's very difficult to to kind

of gauge what happens out there in California only because, like

you said, the small fields and and the sample sizes of of those

good horses running against each other.

And it really all depends on how you evaluate all of the horses

out there, the Bafferts and the Michael McCarthy horses.

And to me, they seem to be a cut above the rest of the East Coast

horses, at least at this moment. Journalism looks as tough as

they get. The horse can do it all.

He's quick. He he finishes races with

authority. I mean, everything you want in a

Derby favor, he has it. Yeah, I he really does multiple

running styles that we've seen the last couple of races as

well. Do you think in in real

question, if Rodriguez runs his race like he did at the Wood,

but he runs it in the Santa Anita Derby, do you think

journalism runs them down? Yeah.

Journalism I. Think is is better?

He's just flat out better than those horses and we'll see if he

can do the same thing and get the trip against the East Coast

horses in the Derby. But he stands an awfully good

chance. I think you probably get maybe 2

to 1, five to two on Derby day and that's that's probably fair.

Barry Spears with us. I had JD Fox, a friend of both

of ours on the show last night on the happy hour and he he has

Luxor Cafe in the top spot. I'm sure you watched it.

Luxor Cafe in the top of his Derby rankings.

Yeah. How are you evaluating the the

Japanese horses and how much did the performances buy?

You know, a, a top three finish in four over young last year and

TO password runs a good fit last year.

I think people have forgotten that performance and they

shouldn't. Does that factor into how you

feel about Luxor Cafe? Yes, absolutely.

They're getting better at preparing their horses for the

Derby. I think the next step might be

to get an American jockey to ride one of them.

If that happens, look out, because that means they really

think they have a good shot. But that Luxor Cafe in the last

race I seen, that horse run kind of reminded me of journalism a

little bit, you know, kind of dominated that event and I can

see that horse just being better than at least half the field

already without this horse even stepping foot in the US.

So he's definitely going to have a good shot to win this race

especially. They run a lot of those races

over there with 13141516 horses and it won't be as new to him as

it would be to a horse like journalism.

Well, and also they run in front of big crowds, right?

I mean, there's actually some noise at those tracks too.

And that's a big difference. I think for some, you know, if

you're if you're and, and look, I know we've picked on the

Sanity Derby enough, but you know, if there's a couple

thousand people to Sanity Derby or if you're running it at the

Wood Memorial and it's kind of crappy weather and there's only

a couple 100 people standing outside, there might be a couple

thousand inside. But you know, the quiet there,

it's not going to be the case for a Luxor Cafe.

Who's going to be able to step in that way?

Are you really putting Ryousey Sakai down?

Is that what we're doing here on this show, The jockey of Forever

young? Come on, Barry Spears.

No, no, I'm not. But man, that's a tough phrase.

I mean, they almost got it done last year.

Forever Young was literally a head from winning the the whole

shebang. So I, I think they have a good

shot. I I don't blame JD for making

that pick. Barry Spears with us we'll get

into handicapping now for Keeneland on Saturday text you

to say I have a hard time with the quote trip trip trouble in a

high 5 horse field. Still a fantastic horse, but I

just don't put much stock in that as being a legit rough

trip. Fair enough.

I I think there's a lot of ways to look at those West Coast

races texture that I if that's how you feel about that.

It's not I don't think a a terrible handicapping angle

whatsoever. The Lexington is this Saturday,

Barry it'll be race 9 out there at Keeneland.

You and I looking at the late pick three together a mile and a

16th that first finish and they're 4 three-year olds at

Keeneland, 400,000 in the Kitty here.

Essentially at this point now, either I don't know, a Preakness

prep or you know, a Matt Wynn prep, something like that for

these horses as none of them can qualify for the Derby.

Interesting horses in here. Hypnos drops out of the

Louisiana Derby for this one. Always some see some others that

have been running more 6 and 7 furlong kinds of races.

I'm not afraid to use a 7 furlong horse, Berry on the mile

and a 16th at Keeneland just because of that short stretch.

So many of them seem to be able to do it.

Where did you end up landing in Lexington?

I landed on Bullard. I think Michael McCarthy just

having journalism in his barn, he has a real good idea of

obviously who the best horse in that division is and where his

other horses stack up against. And I think this is a really

great spot for Bullard in general.

He's been running against the best horses out West.

This field isn't all that spectacular and I think there's

only a couple of horses that this one would have to be better

than in order to win this race. There may be some scratches in

here. I think Rolando ran on April 7th

and so did Touchy. I don't know the chances of them

running both running in this race.

Maybe we'll get one and not the other, but that definitely

changed the complexion, especially if a Rolando is out

and it makes it really like two horses that are going to be

vying for the lead and that's it.

And that can change the race a little bit.

But I still think Bullard might be the best horse in this race

and win despite any kind of pay scenario issues.

Bullard, as Barry mentioned, success out West, the Grade 3

Bob Hope in November at Del Mar before running third in the San

Vicente at Santa Anita behind Barnes, who ended up, of course,

running in the oh gosh, where did Barnes?

Louisiana. No, Barnes ended up in the

Excuse me in San Anita Derby last in the San Anita Derby.

I landed Barry, you're going to. Be forgot about him.

Look at that. He's an afterthought.

He is an afterthought. You know why?

Because Steve Kornacki told me he was going to win the San

Anita Derby. And Steve Kornacki is a high

level bomb. How about that?

How about that Steve Kornacki, you're a bomb.

How about that? That's that's I.

Were you there when I got that note?

You were there on Saturday when I got that note?

Yeah. Poor Steve.

Poor Steve. Sometimes your horse runs last.

I've taken the Barry Spears angle here.

I'm going to put away turns. And I'm going to ride with

Gossgur here for Brendan Walsh, who broke his maiden most

recently in his most recent race.

Excuse me. Over the one turn mile at

Gulfstream Park. I think the 16th of a mile won't

be a big deal for this son of Nyquist.

Tap it on the damn side. So I will lean on Gossgur.

I don't think I'll get 7 to 2 unfortunately with the

connections there, but that's where I laid it.

Berries on the 6th here. Do you think that's a reasonable

play? Yeah, absolutely, Oscar.

I mean, at least speed wise fits to a tee.

You know, the only thing, he is light on experience at this

level against winners. I mean, that remains to be seen,

but he stands a great chance to win.

JD gave out Hipness as his single in the late pick five.

It's obviously very aggressive, but his case was essentially,

hey, I saw this horse in the slop at fairgrounds.

I know what he's capable of. I'll try him essentially in the

class drop here. This son of Into Mischief.

How do you feel about Hipness? I actually landed on him second,

believe it or not, just because of that class relief in my

handicapping. Hip This is interesting, but I

think he's going to be too far back.

To. Another long shot actually in

the second spot, and that's Bracket Buster.

This horse, Sneaky on paper is probably speedier than what it

looks like. Do you see how the horse broke

his main? That's probably the preferred

running style and they tried to do that in the street sense and

just weren't quick enough. You know, you got three horses

that one preps out of that race, Sovereignty to Static and

Sandman, so he really had no shot.

I think this is a much more realistic spot.

I know the layoff numbers for Vicki Oliver aren't great.

She's capable on the best day and she's not going well at this

point. But this is a horse that could

turn somebody's year around and in this spot, I'd say that this

horse has a better than average chance at least get on the board

and and make some noise. If not, when?

Yeah, son of a coma there and we've seen those of a comas run

very, very well. Big Oliver's numbers to start

this year, very, very tough to see because frankly, she's a

good trainer and it's just not been going her way so far this

year. Pray Tour comes in as the

favorite here, Barry the the seven horse here, Chad Brown,

Flavia and Pratt. I think a lot of that is look,

the last the last effort was very good.

You know, I'm in at 36 over the mile at Santa Anita Park and you

know he comes in second off the layoff here, etcetera.

I don't I don't hate this as the favorite, but to me not a not a

strong enough favorite to to really lean or include a 2 to 1

here. I don't know.

I'm not sure because he did beat sovereignty, you know, breaking

the maiden, came back against winners and dominated that crew

that included bear claw necklace, who well meant in a in

another spot in a in a greatest stakes race.

In the world, actually, yeah. It's it's very difficult to

really know how you know this horse really is, but Prayed is

going to get the test. Goss, who didn't give him all he

can handle. The Jenny Wiley is race 10,

started the late double there at Keeneland tomorrow mile and a

16th on the turf. This is a grade one for fillies

and mares 4 and up, $650,000 in the Kitty here.

Essentially last night JD and I could not have been much more

different on a race than this one that his top three and my

top three do not intersect at all.

He gave out a couple of horses that I think do have legitimate

shots. But Barry, essentially to me

this comes down to do you trust the horses that have been

running in North America or do you trust who's being shipped

in? Where did you land on that?

I'm going to trust the horses in the US I'm going to.

I'm going to beat America first here.

Make America Turf racing great again.

You heard it from Barry Spears. There you are.

I just have a hard time believing that, Schweisser.

I think that's how you spell that I guess.

The two horse? Really.

Yep. Form coming into this race, you

know this horse ran a really good race and made on last time

beat Cinderella's Dream, who'd probably be 3 to 5 in this spot.

It just really all depends on how you think that horse came

out of that race into this one. I've seen it go both ways where

a horse did this, comes over here to Keeneland and throws in

a complete dud. And I've seen it the other way

where a horse almost does the same thing, comes over here and

runs for fun. I'm going to side with the

latter just because of the price.

I think that this horse isn't going to be all that ready for

this race after that hard one. Excellent.

Truth is another one awful long layoff hasn't been out since

July. I mean, that in and of itself is

sort of a bet against for me. I'm a little old school in that

way, because layoff lines don't really mean as much as they used

to. But drawing the rail isn't ideal

at all either. So I'm going to stay America

first here and go with #8 sacred Wish.

I thought this horse was best in the in the Pegasus, even though

I did have a big bet on be your best to beat him or beat her.

She was running like a freight train kind of loose late and was

probably the best horse in that race.

So I think the time off everything kind of lines up for

another great effort. Johnny VS on again, and I think

this horse is really going to make some noise and win this

race. Last two times coming off the

layoff for Sacred Wish, a a good third by less than a length in

an allowance at Keeneland over the mile on the turf course.

Probably wins if it's a longer race than that.

And but after that in the Grade 3 Golden Cova out at Del Mar

after shipping from Kentucky Downs, a horse finished at third

in the grade, Grade 3 Golden Cova before winning the Grade 1

Matriarch out West. That was also J DS top pick

here. I went with Keyhoe Beach and

seven here I thought looked really good in the Mrs. Revere

in November. I get the horse off a little bit

of a freshening here has been at Keeneland the whole time.

I I think that horse is going to be ready ready ready to go for

Frankie Dettori in that spot. But I do love the sacred wish

angle here. Texter wants to know Barry if

you ever handicap based on how far far excuse me, a horse has

to travel like hey with ACC teams.

We think about those West Coast trips differently than we do

when they play more local teams. That's exactly actually what

Barry was talking about. South choice out here not only

has to leave the Arabian Peninsula in Maidan in the in

the United Arab Emirates to come over here, but that horse has to

and run for the first time in a couple of months, that kind of

thing. So yes, distance traveled,

absolutely, especially Barry when we go over an ocean, let's

say. Oh yeah, absolutely.

It definitely makes a difference.

Anyone that's been around horses or talks about this kind of

stuff knows that not every horse ships well.

Some just don't take to it, and they run poorly when they do.

I mean, we're going to find out what these two foreign horses

are made of. One, of course, I do want to

make note of is 30 to one on the line, Gina Arana.

If you look at that race on August 23rd, yeah, August 23rd

last year, he won going away and the running line doesn't tell

the story. This horse won that race

unbelievably easy. And this is an interesting spot

because they tried to get this horse into a couple other races

and for whatever reason, I don't know if the horse has been

injured or just not ready yet, but they land here and I would

give this horse a better than 30 to one chance to win this race

or even get on the board. If this horse is anywhere 30 to

one, he's definitely on my tickets underneath 2nd, 3rd,

4th. I mean, I would recommend

anybody can go back and look at that main race back August 23rd,

2024 and and just you'll see what I'm talking about all.

Right there you go Barry Spears with us here on remote go on

ESPN 680 and one O 5 seven. My log shot in here, by the way,

is the three poolside was slim to hit the board in this one.

So I'll be using that one underneath Inexact as trifecta

kind of plays closer is a starter allowance.

Barry's about 7 furlongs. So my favorite thing about

Keeneland, by the way, everything's very precise there.

Everybody's got the same green jacket on working in the stands.

Everyone follows the same rules. Every guy in the club at the top

floor there looks exactly the same, but no about 7 furlongs.

That's what we're going to do the the ever precise sport of

horse racing. 63,000 in the Kitty here.

This is for Phillies who are three years old who have

essentially never started for a or at least have started for a

$50,000 claiming price or lower. Wide open one here Barry to

close the card. I don't think so.

Sherbini is kind of a stand out in this race.

This horse has been running great.

It stays Grade 1, not running poorly behind the likes of Good

Cheer, Immersive, The Queen's MGII.

Would be hard dressed to think this horse loses this race, but

there are alternatives there. There is situations where this

horse can lose this race by either just not just totally not

performing, but I think the two horse has a chance.

Autumn Rhythm, This horse has ran well against winners and I

think the extra added half of furlong will make the difference

and get this horse into the race a little bit quicker and that

might make the difference between this horse winning and

losing. But other than that, I really

don't see any of these other horses doing much in this race.

You're being kind of towers over this field.

If you're right, do you think we'll see her in some higher

level stakes once we get to Saratoga?

Absolutely. OK, All right.

That's what you think for them. Got it.

OK All right. Yeah.

Well, I think that's reasonable because, frankly, you and I were

kind of joking when we were at Aqueduct the other day.

You know, we see all these guys flocking to Keeneland and

Churchill. Well, that's because every

allowance is is essentially a grade 3 purse, right?

You know what I mean? That's why they're there.

It's. Unbelievable.

Yeah. And so when when you could drop

Shrubidi back in because she she qualifies for this because of

the the maiden race she actually was in was a was an auction race

rather than a typical maiden special at Churchill, which she

won on debut, hasn't won since. But like as excuse me, as you

point out, Saratoga Stakes, Saratoga Stakes, Keeneland

Stakes, Churchill Stakes, right. So she's been in this very, very

high level company. So yeah, she's certainly

dropping back in that way. A texter wants to know, Hey,

Barry, what does first time against winners mean?

I love this, by the way. I wish more of you would texted

questions. This is fantastic.

Happy Derby season, by the way. Yeah, first time against

winners. So after the horse breaks their

maiden, which a maiden race is all for horses who've never won

before, the next level up after they breakthrough that condition

is against horses who have won at least one race.

It's not more than that. And that's usually the highest

jump up in class in horsedom. So that's probably the most

difficult thing to do. And when horses make that jump,

it's very good to their future as to how and where they're

going to be running it. It's it's certainly important,

especially early in the career, as to beating winners and where

and who. My, my equivalency is always a

horse can't become, you know how in, in basketball we talk about

year one to year 2 being the biggest leap for a college

basketball player? I always think of it as once you

beat winners as an, as a horse, once you, once you take that

next step and win that race, then we can figure out what

you're good at, right? That's when we know we can take

a step forward with this kind of, you know, whoever this horse

is, whatever his or her story is.

Once they beat, once they win against other horses that have

won a race before, I go, OK, now we've got something, let's go

figure it out. Exactly nailed it.

There you go. All right buddy.

Late pick three there at Keeneland on Saturday.

It's that time of year, buddy. By the way, I should probably

just go ahead and say it on here.

I've made the important executive decision after really

enjoying my time with Barry Aqueduct.

I'm going to take Barry to the Indiana Derby this year.

So Rachel, Eric, if you're listening, we're going to be up

there. You excited little little grade

3 Indiana Derby, grade 3 Indiana Oaks.

You like that little July 5th. You like that, Barry Spears?

Oh man, I'm loving it. My first time.

It'll be my first time in Indiana.

Grand. You know, not Indiana Granny

board. That's right.

Horseshoe, Indianapolis. That's right, my bad.

Horseshoe, Indianapolis? That's exactly right.

Oh, Zach's not even listening. That's a good joke for Zach.

All right, Barry, get out of here, buddy.

Have a great weekend. All right, man.

You too. Thank you.

See you buddy. There you go, Barry Spears,

urban handicapper on Twitter and of course he is the sniper.

Go find him on all the things you can catch him.

They're on a two week hiatus, which is why I had him on today,

but he and I do Socal Saturdays on the AM Wager and on the

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