Tesio 2025 Preview | John Piassek

We now head out to my friend. He's in New York, but we'll talk

Maryland with him. His name is John Piazzic up

there at Yonkers Raceway, but previously with the Maryland

Thoroughbred Breeders Association.

And all of the good things joins us here on Ramonco.

Johnny P Good morning, man. Good morning, Louis.

It's great to be here. Yeah, thanks for jumping on with

us. Tessio Day itself and we always

joke about it and all the things John with oh deputed testimony

being the last one to win the Tessio then win the Preakness in

1983. It's been a very, very long

time. But frankly, it's interesting

because in my mind, the, you know, obviously everyone around

here knows that road to the, the, the Kentucky Derby thing.

When we talk about the road to the Preakness, you know that,

that El Camino real Derby out West because of the connection

with the, the previous ownership and all those things used to

provide another path. We see the bath house this

weekend at Oak Lawn as well. Between the two races here, do

you think we've got a couple bona fide Preakness starters

that you know can get a pretty good check once we get to to

Saturday? Absolutely, especially because

in recent news, traders have not been as enthusiastic about

sending their Derby also Rans to the Preakness.

So it's really the perfect race for a horse who hits their best

stride kind of, you know, in late March, early April and

makes an impact in races like the Bathhouse Row and the Tessio

and the Lexington last weekend. And we've seen that in past

through youth. I mean, Cesar Gray won the PATH

day mile in a career best effort, came back and won the

pregnancy. We had national treasure, we had

early voting, we had horses who who got good just a little bit

behind Derby horses. But it's still very nice horses

in their own right. So it it would not surprise me

at at all if the Tessio produced a serious Preakness contender,

not just a fuel cell. You make a good point about the

Lexington too as well that essentially this year, because

of the very high threshold of points to enter the the Derby

starting gate, we're going to have a fair number that are just

ready to go straight to, you know, straight to Baltimore out

of either that Lexington or the two races that'll be contested

tomorrow. So it's a good point by you that

we might actually have a not only just a really full gate,

but a really good field as well of of the non Derby starters

essentially there in the Preakness.

Is there a race on the late card here that you're especially

interested in that isn't the Tessio?

Obviously we also have on the card here in race 9, the Weber

City Miss a winning in for the Black Eyed Susan, which is the

Kentucky Oaks in Maryland the Friday before the the Preakness

itself, same day as the Pimlico Special.

Any of these other stakes race to stand out to you?

They've got 5 on the card here. Yeah, four other ones on the

card, three of them on the grass.

In fact, today is the first day of grass racing in Maryland,

which is very exciting. One was I'm really curious to

see is in Race 8, which starts the late pick five.

It's the King Leatherberry going 5 1/2 furlongs.

I really like #10 determined Kingdom, who is a mainstay of

these grass sprints in Mid-Atlantic.

In fact, he won at Keeneland last fall in a very tough

allowance race. That was his most recent start.

He was purchased for $190,000 at the Keeneland November sale last

year, which is notable because he's now 6 and he's a gelding.

But to pay that much money for an older horse who has no post

racing value outside of the amount of value, of course, that

tells you how how much ability this horse has.

He loves his track. He loves this kind of

competition. He's done well off a long life

before. So I'm not to be worried about

him not racing since October. He has great tactical speed.

If if he runs his race, he'll win this one pretty easily.

Does pick off kick off the early, excuse me, the late pick

5? They're only a 12% take out on

the pick fives in Maryland, so cannot suggest enough looking at

that in that Weber City miss We're going to see one that if

we were watching that little short Colonial Virginia Derby

meet, we saw a reply. Go ahead and win her first race.

A daughter of Curlin here. Must be nice for Brittany

Russell to get to drop her into this Weber City miss.

Oh yeah, absolutely. And, and in fact, she has two

horses here. She has reply and complexity

drain as well and for those who don't follow Maryland racing

that often, the Saint Brittany Russell is the Queen of Maryland

in understatement. She gets all the best horses,

all the best owners she could. She did excellent work at the

Winter Meat, won over a 30% clip, has many horses in her

bones who are making impacts not only in Maryland but nationally.

She had a voice named Post time last year who came in second in

the Met Mile and the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile.

She won her first ever race. He went early this week.

So it not surprised me if you started making serious waves

over the next few years, not just in Maryland but on bigger

circuits also. Reply Dropping in here, how do

you handicap a horse going from that one turn mile to a little

bit of a strange arrangement there?

Very quick first turn there in the mile and a 16th set up at

Laurel Park. Well, it's it's a question with

two voices in here because as you talked about apply broker

maiden at the one turn mile. I think she's going to be really

over backed. Like yes, it was a nice effort,

but this is a big class test for her.

She's never racing against winners.

She's only raced one time. Everybody else in here has raced

disable mate has raced at least twice and and everybody else has

race against winners. She has not like she can win.

I think you have to use her in a pick four or a pick 5.

But 8:00 to 5:00 in the morning line, I think is just way, way,

way too low, especially because, as we'll get to later on in the

show, Kentucky Outlaw in the Tessio has a fairly similar

profile, but he's already won against winners and he'll be a

much better place. So I don't see how you cannot

like Kentucky Outlaw in the Tessio at whatever odds he'll be

at and think, wow, you know, odds on or whatever on reply is

going to be a good bet. The 10th race right before the

Tessio will be the Henry S Clark.

It's $100,000 one mile turf race there for three and up

essentially the male version over here.

I think there's there's there might be value in this spot

here, John. I think the eight on the outside

if he can, or toward the outside I should say, for Jorge Abreu

and mischievous Angel should be an interesting one here.

Has largely done his work to this point at shorter distances,

but was really effective at 7 furlongs at Kentucky Downs.

I think of the seven furlong race at kDa bit like a mile race

and I think he'll be set up really well.

Paco Lopez in to ride here. This is an angle for Jorge Abreu

over six months off that he hits at 38%.

I love this horse in here at 8:00 to 1:00.

Where did you land in Race 10? This is a fantastic betting

race. There's so many ways to go and

no matter who you like you will get paid.

I am going with a Brittany off a horse in here that's number one.

Ocean City, 12 to one on the morning line.

He didn't have a great year last year.

He only won once in Seven Stars where he went gate Toyo at

Delaware Park. But The thing is he has a lot of

early speed and there's really not a lot of other speed in

here. So I can easily see him going to

the front, just walking of a dog on the front end and then

leaving reeling and winning by open length.

And he's going to be a good fight.

He's 12 to one on the morning line.

He might go off a little bit higher than that and it's very

rare you get as good that kind of price on a horse trained by

Brittany Russell, ridden by her husband Sheldon, let alone a

good price on a horse who I think has a very good chance.

So Ocean City is my wind band in that race.

I am going to spread a little bit in the pick five and pick

four. I like the two Code Trick, who

has good tactical speed and his first local start 3 for Mineo,

multiple stakes winner last year, as was the four neat

coming out of a grade one race. So there's many ways to go, but

Ocean City is going to be my topic.

In the Tessio itself, Race 11 starts the late double here,

mile and an eighth. Exactly one trip around the

Laurel Park dirt surface there, $150,000 three-year olds, again

a spot in the Preakness. On the line here we see the

return of Pay Billy who won last out in the private turns going

that mile and a 16th. Does the 9 hole bother you at

all and is the five to two price?

I think it's frankly pretty fair on him.

I agree. I'm not concerned with the post.

Well, first of all, because it is a mile and an eighth, so

there is a bit of a longer run into the first turn.

It's not quite as bad as post 9 would be, going a mile and a

16th. And he also overcame an outside

post in the private terms. He broke on the outside post of

five in that race. He raced wide the entire way and

he really never slowed down at all.

In fact, he only got stronger as the race got longer.

He kicked away on the turn 1 by 3 1/2 lengths under very big

speed figure on the prison at scale.

He ran in 97. In fact, he really has not run a

bad race in four starts at Laurel since mid-december.

He lost the miracle word by a heartbreaking nose to Obey and

runner crushed the first level field on in late January by 5

lengths. He has a great tactical speed

going back to Kentucky Outlaw who is 2 for two at parks in

Philly and now he's making his state's debut.

He's going to be the speed in here.

Hey Billy has good tactical speed.

I think Kentucky Outlaw goes to the front pay.

Billy sits just off his flank on the outside and once like the

outlaw stop as I think he will pay.

Billy is going to take advantage and win this one I think pretty

easily and depending on on how fast he runs, as I said at the

top of the show, he could be a legit Preakness contender.

Wow, that's a lot, buddy. So so pay Billy on top for you.

We talked about some other horses last night.

So let's walk through some of these just because this is the

feature here. But Surfside Moon comes out of

the Withers. We saw Captain Cook.

You and I were there together at the wood.

By the way, if you're if you're hearing John's voice and go

where have I heard this guy before?

You probably heard him on the happy hour with me ahead of the

wood memorial with Barry Spears. But the the Surfside moon thing

mile and an eighth, the 90 speed figure a ton of time off before

it a fair amount of time off here.

What do you make of Surfside Moon this bud?

He has a shop and he's going to be pretty badly over bed just

because of that flashy line in the weather.

In fact, he was originally pointed for the wood.

He got sick. Trainer Chuck Lawrence regarded

him to Hue. So I kind of wonder if this is a

spot more just to get a race into him and kind of see what

happens then actually generally trying to win it because a lot

of these horses in this race, I mean, this is the last race in a

very long fail of three old races in Maryland.

This one horses who have have been pointing towards this race

since last fall. And he got took out thrown into

it at almost the last minute. So I'm a little bit suspicious

that Woodley Speed is kind of outlier compared to the rest of

his form. Again, he could win, but I think

he'll be too low a price for me to bet.

Others in here that have are probably going to attract a fair

amount of money the the 6th Dudley do right.

They did everything to try to get him on the Kentucky Derby

trail simply didn't work out for him at the time.

John Rob drops him into this spot here comes out of a fifth

place effort in the Virginia Derby.

What do you what do you make of him in this in this company?

I like him as a fan. I mean, Jerry Rob has been

training in Maryland for a million years.

It's always cool to see a Maryland Bread do well and

possibly get a spot in. In the Preakness, he was a two

time stakes winner at 2:00, but he really hasn't done anything

since. He's been off the board in four

straight tries. He was very flat in the Jerome

in January. He was very flat in the John

Battaglia in the Virginia Derby. Yes, it was kind of a speed

favoring track that day, but he really didn't have as much punch

in the stretch as I would have expected.

He came in fifth. I was hoping he'd get at least

third and I feel a bit better about him.

He has one on this track. However, it was against maidens

going 4 1/2 furlongs last May on this track going a mile in

September. He was, he just got up for 2nd

and really never looked like a winner in that race.

So, and I do think because again of those class lines like, oh,

he's a great winner, people know the name, he's going to get over

bat. I'll let him beat me.

What do you think of maybe a a just a fair shake on the

outside? Looked really good at a mile and

a 16th last out against winners was featured in that Laurel

Futurity on Maryland Million Day back in September.

Needed some time off. I thought frankly for coming off

the the bench the way that he did, looked really good,

especially making a move, frankly just at the top of the

turn there at Laurel Park. I think it's 20 to one.

This is great value and I think if you leave him out of an exact

player you're out of your mind. He's been the buzz horse this

week. I'd be surprised if you got 20

to one on him. I think go off probably 12:50,

maybe 12 to one. He's going to get bet.

I mean as you mentioned, he did run very well.

First off, the layoff in a very nice first level allowance which

included a very well regarded Christophe Clementraney named

Superpower. In fact, Wood was kind of out

about just a fair shake for that race.

He went off as the seven to five favorite well bet off the

morning line. First time was Blinker's first

time with Lasix. He overcame a wide trip that

day, held on to win. The speech figure was not that

great. He only ran an 82 on the

Brisnett scale, but again, it was his first start in six

months. It was his first time around two

turns. He answered both of those

questioned very well. Jamie Rodriguez, one of the top

joggers in Maryland, gets the call for the first time.

I mean, nothing he he could do What surprised me is how I put

it. I could see him winning by three

or four. I could see him totally spitting

the bit Either way. As you said, though, he'll be a

decent price. That was good as his warning

line, but a decent price. So if you play an exacto or if

you can't start out a bit in the pick four or pick 5.

So I meant. Who is your favorite of the

favorites? This is John Piazza with us, by

the way. He's at they're off on Twitter.

If you want to go find them, find him there.

And look, you, you talked about a couple of different folks as

we went through here through the sequence.

Is there a single in the suit coats for you?

Is it pay Billy? It is pay Billy.

I think if you have a single somewhere, it's going to be him.

If it's if you are playing to pick five, I would also single

to him in Kingdom. Who's who's going to kick off

that sequence? And then if you single those

two, you can afford to spread out a little bit more in the

other races and try to catch a price like I am going to use.

I'm probably going to end up using reply in the Weber City

myths. But if she doesn't win, it's

going to be a pretty big pick 5 payoff, even if even.

If. The rest of the way right,

She'll be such a big favorite. She's going to be single.

I'm on many tickets. I figured so the way I might

advise to play the tick 5 as of right now.

That might change in the morning or whatever, but right now I'm

singling determined Kingdom. I'm singling pay Billy and I'm

thinking about tossing reply. We'll see.

A little reply toss there from our guy Johnny P John Piazza.

Join us there from New York. What was your what was your

lasting memory of the wood? Do you what do you think of

Rodriguez? I, I, I went back, I watched

that to make sure my eyeballs weren't receiving me.

He was, he was impressive in New York City.

What do you what do you make since you were there at that

prep? Oh, he scares me.

I mean, I think there's he's kind of flying under the radar

because he wasn't one of big baffles big horses at the start

of the year, but he looked very, very sharp in victory.

I've I've seen that song and dance with authentic and with

begin a spirit, at least mutually speaking.

Justify, yes, Justify too. It was actually in the case of

Authentic and Medina Spirit. Both of them went under the

radar. Derby week, Both of them ended

up winning. And then it's like, Oh my God,

how could I not have used a bathroom with a a lot of speed?

I will say the decision to raise Owen Almighty in the Derby, that

news broke this week, that's going to impact Rodriguez a

little bit because now there is a little more speed.

E Avenue, he's going to have some speed.

So he might not get as easy a trip as he did in the wood.

I'm not quite sure how he'll do with more pace, pressure or even

how he'll do when he can't make the lead.

That being said, I think he has to be respected.

I think he's going to fall through the cracks in the

betting. I'm hoping to get at least 12:50

on him the Derby and if he does go off a 10 to 1 I think you

have to bet. Yeah, that's a hammer.

A hammer kind of bet for sure. I wrote a piece yesterday out of

the Sporting Tribune and I I went to three preps, John.

I went to the Ruby, I went to the Bluegrass and I went to that

one. He was the most impressive horse

I saw. And that's over a third, the

starting gate man. And so that's that's the thing.

And so now I'm excited about his prospects.

I think he's he's a cool runner. His his final, if you use Jenny

Reese's final fraction theory, he fits all that bill.

I think he's top 3-4 kind of contender in that race.

I think so, too, and I think journalism is going to be over

better luck because, I mean, he has a big shot, but I feel like

people are kind of coalescing around him and driving down his

price maybe a little too much. I know Baeza, who's not yet in

the Derby field. He's been the a very popular

horse, at least on racing Twitter the past week and a

half. If he ends up getting in, he'll

get back to the moon and be a big underlay.

So as I said, I'm I'm kind of hoping people gravitate towards

other horses and let Rodriguez go off at a decent number.

And it's interesting too because you know, there's so much hype

on Bob Abbott's 3 year old at the start of the year and how

many big ones he has. In my opinion, Rodriguez is

really his only bona fide contender.

I mean, they'll have Citizen Bowl and Manicott Rd. in the

field as well, but I don't think goes to has much of a shot.

It's kind of interesting because it just goes to show you, I

mean, horses and stables look good in January and February,

but it's a long way from there to now.

John Piazzic at their off on Twitter.

We call him Johnny P around here.

Find hisstuffaswell@theracingbiz.com.

They do a great job covering covering Mid-Atlantic racing as

well. I assume you'll have all your

picks up for Saturday. That's correct.

My my analysis for today's card is live on the racing biz.

I'll have tomorrow's up in the morning and I will say something

else about apply also OK this afternoon at Keeneland.

Yes, thank you. Passage E running and I think

the 6th or 7th race, it's it's major race going 7 further along

Passage E lost to reply. Last time out she came in

second. So if Passage E runs well today,

I think that does boost the stock of a reply a little bit.

That sounds right to me. All right, John, we appreciate

you, buddy. Have a great weekend.

Thanks, Luis. See you at the Preakness.

All right, buddy. Yeah.

See you in a month. That's right.

Gosh almighty. We will see Johnny P at the

Preakness. Of course, I'll be there.

We'll do coverage of course around that.

If you're going to be in Baltimore for the Preakness

Friday night, Jimmy Seafood, the big old Jimmy Seafood, they give

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