Kentucky Derby 151 Seminar | Louie Rabaut & Kali Francois

All right, welcome in for our annual Kentucky Derby.

I almost said breeders. It is not breeders come season.

It is spring. It is the first week of May here

in the Bluegrass. And of course, that means

Kentucky Derby 151 alongside Cali Francois.

My name is Louie Rabo. Thanks so much for joining us

wherever it is that you're in the world.

Let's make some noise in the room, though.

These are the people that, hey, if you happen to be in town, we

have Blind Squirrel Restaurant here in the East End of

Blueville. Cannot suggest enough checking

out this spot for food grub, whatever it is, before or after

the races. There's always horse racing on

the TV's here, So if you're one of those folks as well, they've

got you covered that way. Well Kelly, welcome to TIME your

first Derby been hanging out backside.

Initial impressions would be. Initial impressions are, man,

everybody is just really cranked for what's to come for 1:51.

There's a lot it's been, it's like it has lightened up now

that you know, the the main crowds have come in on the

backside, but everybody is super ultra focused and it's great to

see everybody over here in Kentucky at Churchill.

It is one of those weeks of the year, Breeders' Cup in Derby

where you get to see everybody from around the country.

So for those of us who are in this and do stream yard and

different things around the country, it's nice to see our

friends in in in person. And certainly we get to do that.

For example, with you being down here and being Preakness in a

couple weeks. So we'll be hanging out that way

tonight. Essentially.

I wanted to go through if you could go ahead and click the

next slide here. Everyone in the in the room has

this and we're going to go ahead and send it on here as well.

So if you are interested in being part of it, we're going to

have it up on the screen for you as well on this on the

slideshow. But before we totally get into

it, what we're going to try to accomplish tonight is we want

you to understand how we got to the Kentucky Derby to start with

some of the AD CS of betting. You might be new to wagering on

horses at this point. And if you are, hey, no problem,

we got you covered here. We'll give you an idea of what

the basic, what the basic ideas are for Kelly as we get into

this. If someone's new and they're

watching and they're trying to figure out the Derby and they're

trying to do all those different things as far as wagering, what

would you suggest? They kind of leaning?

Are we talking specifically for Kentucky Derby or are we talking

in general? Because I think those are two

completely different answers. Ultimately, though, the

overarching theme of my answer and what I'm going to say is you

need to take a look at these horses yourself, whether it's in

person, which I highly suggest. I highly suggest being at the

track that you're taking a swing at with some of these games

opportunities and or if not, you can go through any at first,

that being one of them through any of your wagering simulcast

access areas, so to say. So I would say just on physical

standpoint on the day alone, you will be able to tell which

horses have that energy that you need for that winning type of

energy versus what horses are kind of maybe at the best time.

Yeah, no, it's, it's something to to watch out for for sure.

But as we get into it a little bit of how we got here, what the

Kentucky Derby is itself, it's turned into a race that really

requires us to pay attention to races all over the world,

whether they're in the Arabian Peninsula, Japan, or of course

in the United States as well. Any 3 year old could qualify for

the Kentucky Derby. Only female horses can qualify

for the Kentucky Oaks. And so really in horse racing,

we really only have two kinds of races, races only for Phillies

and mares and races for everybody.

And so the Kentucky Derby is one of those races that happens to

be for everybody. There are some predictors

historically for success in the Derby as well.

So if you're interested in any of those, we're looking at races

like the Florida Derby or the Santa Anita Derby.

Historically, the Wood Memorial as well last winter of the Wood

Memorial where the Derby is boost IHG Pegasus 2000.

It's been a quarter century, but hey, still a really good prep.

We'll get into the backward winner of that one as we move

along as well. And hey, like I said, horses of

both genders can qualify for the Kentucky Derby here in this way.

And so we'll be looking at all kinds of different horses as

well that way. Next slide.

We'll keep going along here as we're rolling along again, Kelly

Francois, we were both with you here hanging out ahead of the

Kentucky Derby, some of the ABC's of betting.

So if you haven't really bet on horses or really thought about

what it means to bet on horses, you are betting against everyone

else in this room, not against Churchill Downs.

When you get to the track this weekend.

That's a really important part of what happens.

So the people on screen at Churchill aren't trying to,

they're not trying to to get you to look over here while they're

betting on something over here. Actually, it's in their best

interest for you to hit bets because every time you bet, they

get a little bit of a piece of the pie of your bet.

And so it's better off for Churchill actually if you hit

bets than if you don't. OK, so you're betting against

the other people in the room. There are other basic bets as

well that I think lots of people should concentrate on more than

they do in the case of a win bet, for example.

And, and Kelly, I'll let you talk about this.

I think one of the good things about a win bet, a place bet,

etcetera is you know what you're looking for, right?

Your horse needs to qualify, you know, across the line first.

That's what we're shooting for. Or in the top 2 with a place

kind of bet. I think for a lot of wagers

getting that initial wager back as part of the winning is really

attractive as. Well, and I was just, I was

speaking with somebody before we had to get kicked off on our

discussion here. I think when you're especially

when you're starting off betting, go over it, yes, the

horse is going to be at a bit of a shorter price, but you're

that's the whole thing. You're more apt to get some

success. You need to build your bankroll

somehow some way. And that's really kind of the

best, most solid way to start is just going through those win

bets and especially, you know, you go with your favorite or you

go with some a horse that kind of sticks out to you a little

bit. And that's why you can you can

place more than one bet to win on a race.

And that's what I think makes it a little bit fun as.

Well, yeah, it is fun that way. If you place a win bet, a horse

has to finish first. If they place, they have to

finish second. The money's been divided between

the two horses that finish first and 2nd.

And if you bet on the horse that has more money in its pot,

you're going to get a lower payout than on the other side as

well. Show bets just somewhere in the

top three, your horse finishes there, you're going to get a

payout that way as well. But then we can get into exotic

bets, maybe an exacta, trifecta, etcetera.

I'm sure people have heard about these.

What's an exacta? What's a trifecta?

So an exacta is when you bet on your, it's, it's two bets.

So you're making a bet on not only the horse that's going to

finish and 1st, but the horse is going to finish and 2nd as well.

And if we're talking just strictly exacta that those

horses have to finish in those exact placements.

Now a trifecta, same thing as an exacta, but you just add one

horse. So it's 123, you have to get

those in 123, but the payout can be pretty sweet on.

Those that's exactly right. And so as the bets get more

difficult, by the way, the minimums tend to go down.

So on a win bet, a place better, a show bet at Churchill Downs

this weekend, you will be expected to wager at least

$2.00. If you bet in exactly, you could

get down to a dollar again, that's the first two forces in

order crossing the line. When you get to a trifecta, it

gets down to $0.50. So in other words, as we get

into the more difficult bets, they're less expensive because

generally speaking, you have to put together a more complex

ticket that creates more possible scenarios and a more

expensive one that way as well. Multi race wagers, if you are a

sports better, these ones are pretty straightforward.

If you wanted to parlay 2 games, guess what, we've got them.

They're called daily double S. You're trying to pick

back-to-back races, that kind of thing.

You just have to pick the winner of two races in a row to hit a

daily double. Again, that's a $1.00 minimum.

Then we get into the more difficult ones.

We get into the $0.50 wagers like a pick 3A, pick four, pick

five. That's literally 3 races in a

row. You have to pick the winner,

pick four, say pick four winners, all those kinds of

things. So are you a, you're an exact

player, right? That's how you.

Go. I'm an exact box.

OK, that's my that's can. You tell people what the exact

boxes. So when we talk about box bet,

that means you're, you're essentially taking two bets and

one bet. So let's say we just discussed,

we just talked about what an exact it is.

It's of course going in that one or two spot that you've got in

that order, but in exacta box it could go either way.

So if you're, let's say you bet, you put an exacta on the one of

the two and those horses finish in one too great.

But if you play do an exact the box in the one and two and the

horse finishes and the race finishes 2 and then one, you're

still making some money, you're covered, you're good.

So that can go down a trifecta box as well.

Again, you have to, and I just explained this to somebody

before the show. I usually like to put the

favorite and then what I think is a good value for a price

underneath. And then that's where I go with

my exact the box bet. We will talk prices and

different things as we go along. Again, if you have any questions

in the room, boom, raise your hand whenever we get to the end

of a slide. Now would be a good time if you

have a basics of betting kind of question.

But let's go ahead. We're going to talk about which

races we're going to be covering.

Go ahead. Yep, next one, and this is a

it's cool six months apart, the Derby and the Breeders Cup and

the cards feel very, very similar between Friday and

Saturday and what we get as far as quality, number of stakes

races, etcetera. So we're going to go through

three races on Friday on Oaks day.

If you're not familiar with the Kentucky Oaks, like I said, it

is for three-year old and so it's the best of our our female

runners. We've had some incredible ones

come out of it for sure. It's one of the very most

important races on our calendar every year.

We'll talk about the Alley Sheba.

We get some really, really fun returning runners.

One of the things that's been so disappointing in horse racing

the last couple of years is it seems like if we get a good

three-year old horse, he runs off to the breeding shed

immediately. This year we're going to get a

bunch of four and five year olds that we're going to see, I mean

locked us in this race fierce this most wonderful of fame.

All those kinds of horses, really, really quality.

It's nice to see them back this year.

But hey, the chant from last year, she's running on Friday.

Her name's Thorpedo Anna, she's in the lottery and we'll talk

about that one as well. All of those bets, by the way,

are part of the two day bets. So if you like to play Oaks,

Derby, Double S or the two day pick 6 or whatever, and all, all

of those races are included in those wagers.

That's why we include them in the seminar.

Lot more on Derby. We'll do the last 7.

They're all great at stakes, three grade twos and of course

four grade ones, including the Kentucky Derby, a great next

Cali of races on this day between turf sprints, dirt

sprints, routes, interpret races, where we're going a

longer distance, there's a mile and a half turf race, there's a

5 furlong turf Sprint, this kind of stuff and so fun, fun, fun.

Very fun. It's kind of like winter break

is over and this is kind of, I'm not saying it's the spring break

version of horse racing, but this is where spring really

begins to a very, very competitive summer that we're

going to be having for 2025, not only in the three-year old

division, but the form 5 year old division as well.

How? Boring.

Would horse racing spring break be?

Oh, I don't. Think I'm working.

At all like we're going to Saratoga.

Hey, you ain't gone a second pizza.

All right, Kelly Fritzladler about hanging out with you.

I'll be and we'll take our friends at first bet by the way,

hanging out with us tonight as well.

You see that logo in the top Go visit firstbet.com right now,

1stbet.com. Go check them out up to $250

right now on a on a bonus. If you are a new customer over

there, use our code ESPN 250 when you get over there as well.

The alley Sheba is Ray 6 on Friday and Callie and I have

written down on the horses that we think can can win this race

or interesting at least to talk about in all of this.

And so no problem. My picture on top and I think

that's just a relic leftover for what I've been doing these

before. Kelly's right there with us.

I'm going to let you go first in the alley Sheba.

But this is the kind of race we've been pining for and

watching so badly in horse racing.

To see this quality back two turns dirt older male horses is

a. Spectacular.

And I we we're going to start things off with fierceness

coming back off of his playoff. We last saw him in the Breeders

Cup Classic last out. I just think, you know, I'm

first of all, I'm taking a look at that work tab and I'm

comparing it to when we've seen him come from off of the layoff

before and it's looking pretty nice.

And you take and if you're for those listening online and here,

if you're aware of how important workouts are, it kind of

showcases where the horse is at on a physical standpoint coming

into the race. Now you take a look at where

those works are and those are at Palm Beach Downs, which is a

training center. Now the that surface, the

surface is going to be a little, a little bit deeper.

So those times, just keep in mind those times may be a little

bit quicker than what's actually on the black and white.

So loving what we're seeing. I love that he gets kind of an

outside post. And this is going to be some,

this is going to be a theory that I talk about throughout the

seminars that when we're talking about a horse that's on the

front end, they can get I called an offensive or defensive

position. So he's when he's in a shorter

field, he's on the four path. He's going to be playing that

offensive position. He he loves playing that spot.

Yeah, I think you're right. And he's a horse that has shown

some variability, frankly. This last couple of runs was did

all of the work of the Breeders Cup Classic, looks spectacular

in that race before finally being overtaken by Sierra Leone

in the stretch. Look, I have him second, but he

is the class of the race. I'm not going to lie about it.

I do think Lochte is in better form right now, another Pletcher

trainee in this case. I think he's getting better with

AIDS like his dad did as well. He's a gun runner and I think

once in a while that really does matter.

We think about it for the Derby and then we forget about it

sometimes. We don't have to do that with

this horse. We missed out out on him as a

three-year old last year and we're already getting very much

the best of what he is capable of.

Last out, of course, a big winner in the Santa Anita

Handicap, a grade one out West in California.

I think he'll travel just fine to be good at Churchill.

And, and he will and you know, the angle that I went with with

locked here today, his stablemate, of course,

fierceness, as I mentioned, coming back and he's gonna

fierceness like we could easily see the, the, the speed of this.

No question. Speed for those who don't

understand, means they're, they're in that first position

going around the entire racetrack and we're locked comes

in. He's very pliable.

You can kind of put him anywhere and he'll be very comfortable in

that spot. And especially when you're

talking about a field that's a little bit shorter.

It's, you know, this deal is small, but it packs a punch.

It's pretty mighty. So he's going to be able to play

along with that and be placed a little bit more forwardly than

what we've seen him in prior races, which is something I

love. I love a horse that has plenty

of tools in the toolbox. All right, we'll move on to the

next race. That is the Latroit and turn of

Torpedo Anna to Churchill Bounds.

I love to tell this story on the claiming crown.

They had her, or excuse me on Clark, I should say, excuse me,

on Churchill. They just had her walk around

the paddock just a parade so people could see her and take

her in every time they got by the shoot.

She was like, OK, let's go yeah, it's time to go around all

right, let's go be here That and she was in she was out of break.

She was out at the farm, right. She's they just brought her in

for the day and she's like, oh, good to be here.

All right, let's go around like, you know that kind of thing.

She's back. Cool horse.

These are the kinds of you know, on the horse racing happy hour,

my other podcast, we talk a lot about fall in love with the

fillies and bears thing run for longer.

If torpedo Anna were a cult had the year she did last year.

I don't know that we see her this.

Year, I agree, I think, you know, and I love the connections

because here's the thing, she could easily be put, but she

could easily also be out of it and see into a broodmare.

But I love how the connections have just been a they are

keeping, they're bringing her back and man, she's come back in

full force just as we saw her back in her. 3 year old I think

both of you and we're just going to have her on top yes I mean it

is what it is. We'll let other forces beat us

in this spot. I wrote down on mine.

She's undefeated versus FNM. Philly's admired so against

other female forces she's yet to lose.

Her only loss came by frankly the smallest of margins in the

traverse against fierceness who you just gave out the alley

chief of. So I mean, obviously she's

running against very, very good horses that way.

I'm really interested here in the seven horse free like a

girl. This is her fifty.

If I did I write that down her 51st start career wise, she's

just a gamer. If you look at her numbers, 21

wins, 14 second place finishes. I'm not at all suggesting this

15 to one shot is going to catch up to Torpino Anna.

But I think this might be a fun exact to play in this spot

where, hey, we got to make some money on Torpino Anna somehow.

Maybe play an exact to play with free.

Who'd you have the second? Spot my second spot that I had

in here as I go raging sea, the four horse for Chad Brown,

Flavia and fraud here. And this is a good off of the

what I tend to look at, especially when we're seeing

some horses coming off of what we call a layoff, which is their

their winter break. Essentially.

I look for patterns. I look to see how they're

running first, second, you know, a time off of the layout was his

First off of the layoff. We've seen her run very, very

well off the layoff. And I fully expect from the Chad

Brown Barn to kind of deliver here on this occasion.

Yeah, I think it's I think she's easily the most likely upset

candidate here. Yes, OK Raging Sea for sure.

Seen her at grade one company before a very, very successful

career to this point. Kelly Francois, Louie Rabot

hanging out with you on the blood horse feed presented by

first bet tonight. Proud of glad school restaurant

in East and Louisville as well. We move on to the Kentucky Oaks

and I am beyond excited about this rendition of the Oaks

because we have something that we seem to get a lot and I think

we're getting spoiled around these parts.

We get a superstar Philly. It feels like every year in the

Oaks and I, I never get tired of it and good cheers in this field

here. She'll be the 11 horse in here

comes out of, I don't know, 6 for six lifetime to start.

Not the end of the world here out of the fairgrounds route.

So she has been on the bench for a little while taking some time

off. No worse for the wear in the

workouts, so she looks ready. To go again, yes, And I mean,

this is a filly that has had reputation placed upon her

probably after her immediately after her first start, if not a

little bit before that. So it's essentially my only note

on this one and I keep it very, very simple.

Is her race loose and the really this filly can be pushed a

little bit forward. She's very comfortable.

They consider back the way she's developed mentally throughout

those six wins I think is kind of the biggest take away with

her on her. Who's the most likely upset

candidate here? We've seen some that look really

great the morning. La Cara has looked unbelievably

comfortable at Churchill Downs. The trainee in the barn from

Marcasi I, I think she stands out above.

I'll give a different 1 though. I think simply joking in here.

The two horse is a fascinating one with Beckman.

Local connection here. Literally lives like a mile and

1/2 from where we are right now. This horse, he started her first

start ever in a stakes race. So the two horse in this race,

simply joking, just has a bullet work.

Just a couple of days ago at Churchill Downs.

I think she's the fastest horse in the Oaks.

The 9 furlongs, the mile and an eighth is an absolute question,

no doubt about it. Getting the distance is a

question. Can she get a piece here?

I think she can get a big piece. Here, and this is where again, I

go off of we don't have a layoff really to go off of, but she's

coming second off of a layoff, but you go to her second start

and that was, you know, going a route for the first time.

But still that was we saw something very, very different

from that first win in that stake to the second win in a

stake on the off track. We may have a little bit of rain

coming out and we need to factor that in.

She's won. She wanted her second start in a

stake on the off going. Her effort last time out, she

simply just kind of got. She got tired.

She needed the race. She's going to come back fully

swinging here today. I like that she gets that two

position here for this race. Finished second is simply excuse

me to to quiet side in that one. Sorry about that as well.

I I saw one in person and so massive, massive disclaimer

about how I handicap. If I see a horse in person, I

fall in love. It's how it works.

I saw Valerie Deoro with the gazelle and aqueducts a couple

of a couple of weeks ago, and she was very, very impressive

from off, from sitting just off the pace.

And so I think she's got a chance to sit right behind a

Simply Joking. Well, by the way, I didn't

mention this about Simply Joking.

I love that Laurent Giroux gets them out here.

I think he's as good as anyone at rating on the front, and

that's where Simply Joking is going to be.

I think he gives her a legit shot, at least to be in the

picture at the end. I feel that way about Ballerina

de Oro here. I love the move to Flavian Pratt

#1 and #2 I think she's going to be able to sit a trip where

she's in the pocket the entire time.

It's absolutely be part of the equation.

With the amount of fillies that are going to be up front and you

know, we just talked about Cara's going.

To try to go. Too Cara, just what I from what

I've seen in the mornings, she is going to be coming out of

that gate guns and blazing. So it just sets up so extremely

well for ballerina De Oro, of course, Chad Brown conditioning

this one I think to absolute perfection.

You see kind of the way this Philly has progressed mentally,

the storyline on this. I just love to see she started

out on the turf and moving over to the dirt.

That's not the move that we usually see with Chad.

So when you see that you have to pay attention.

I agree. With you.

That's a really, really good point about that.

All right, all the races we just covered on Friday, who's the

horse we're going to have to beat to make money?

I know it's I know it's Torpedo Anna.

If we're going to get a big payout, missing her in the

lottery and would be a big deal for sure.

I would guess what 8090% of the money in multi race wagers will

be on her, probably closer to the 90 number.

Again, the reason I bring this up is you're betting against

everyone else, right? So if you're different than

other people and the different ends up being right, your payout

goes up. Because if there's more money on

Torpedo Anna than what you're doing, then you're going to be

able to get a more of a payout that way.

That's why I'm asking this question.

I think it might be good cheer in the late, late sequence

that's. Bold but I can.

See it, I think she's going to be every bit of six to five like

they have in the morning line. She's 6 and all six or six or

six. Brad Cox, all the connections,

Dolphin, I mean all of the things, right?

She's going to be 6 to 5, even money, whatever it is.

And so for me, she might be the one later that if we can get a

simply joking at 12:50, that could really blow things.

Up right. And I mean you talk and it's not

only just a couple of Phillies that we talked about, but we

have a couple of others in that field in the Kentucky Oaks that

could really that are sitting. They're going to be coming in at

a price and they're really about to sit on a really good race.

So I could completely understand a potential upset that we have

for the Kentucky Oaks. We have a question from the

audience, as we always do. Michael, how are you?

Quiet side. Quiet side.

OK, what about her? Why not?

Oh, no, I I don't think you're going to get an argument against

from us. That's an Ortiz trainee here and

I'm forgetting who has them out here.

We have Jose Ortiz. Oh, it's Jose Ortiz.

OK, I got it for John. And so no, I I'm not going to

talk you off that one. I'm not going to talk you off

that one. I think she is going to try to

run like good cheer. She's just not the same level as

good cheer. That was what I would say to

that. Well, and here's the other thing

too. A lot of people may worry a

little bit about that 14 post, but she was able to get that

done out of the 12 post at Oak Lawn.

So for her at. Night Much shorter run to the

turn, too, in Oakland. Exactly.

So she's able, not only is she able to handle a wide trip, but

I think she actually prefers it. She kind of makes likes to make

these long sweeping moves. And every time we've kind of

seen her on an inside post, it gets a little bit tricky.

But she's also in that time in the storyline that she's had,

she's gotten more confident. So she's another one that's just

really sitting on a win. Honestly, I think 8 to 1 is for

her. Addict to one could be a really

nice steal. I have her.

And I think you're getting to 1 as well.

I think you're getting to one. Yeah, I think you're totally

right about that. You have Drexel Hill listed on

yours as well, and we haven't talked about her.

Another trainee of wit Beckman's because the guy went from 1

Derby runner last year to two in the Oaks and one in the Derby

this year. He's got, by the way, Otto

Murray is back from Derby last year.

He'll run in the ice of Murphy tomorrow at Churchill Downs over

a mile and 1/2 in the marathon race there.

But Drex Hill 30 to 1 here. Long, long odds.

I don't know. I've been watching her work.

She looks as comfortable as anyone else.

She's not one of these flashy fillies.

She's very steady, very Workman like.

And that's something, first of all, that I have a little bit of

respect for. She's coming off of.

We haven't seen her since March. We haven't seen her run a race

since March and that was in New York.

Now she had a little bit of an uncare.

She had a bit of a stumble and the big question mark was that

she kind of hung a little bit too far back on the backside.

But for watching that race a little bit more, she, I, I think

she just needed that time to kind of cooperate and she took

the, for me, it was a move kind of like an older horse does that

came with a finish. She just was taking care of

herself on the backside. And then you see that finish.

She was, she went, she had the option, Ben Curtis had the

option to go around the 2nd place finisher and he went in

between near the rail. Her ears were pricked up.

It was just, I thought it was a very professional move.

If anything happens in the race as far as messiness goes, this

Billy's going to be able to handle it no problem.

And there you go, huge price. That's another race where if

good cheer does go up as the favor, maybe it's a drugs hill

that can spice up your exacta in that spot.

We'll move to Saturday in Kentucky Derby Day.

We'll start with the Pat Day Mile, which has turned into, is

this the buzz race now a Derby day or what?

Because it just turns into, Oh yeah, you might not go with the

Derby, but gosh, Pat Day Mile. I haven't done any Road to the

Pat A Mile podcast series at all yet, but apparently the next

year that's coming. Scott, just a heads up, I guess

we're going to have to do that. But before we do that, of

course, want to take our friends here at Blind Squirrel hanging

out with you on the Blood Horse streams.

Yeah, for sure. Make make some noise here first

Bat, first bat.com. Go check them out right now. 250

dollar bonus available to you over there.

Use our code ESPN 250 when you do sign up.

All of the details are at the website 1stbetfirstbet.com.

Pat Day Mile is race 6 and we see some very, very interesting

horses in here. I want to remind people last

year before you dismissed the Pat Day Mile, we got Cesar Gray

out of this last year who went on to win both the Preakness and

the Pennsylvania Derby. So this is not an

inconsequential race whatsoever. This is A1 turn mile of

Churchill Downs. They start that very long shoot

off of the eastern part of the southern part of the property

there. Excuse me, who'd you land on the

family mountain? I go with gaming for Bob

Bamford, Velasquez gets the mount here.

I always appreciate and I'm very it's it's an angle.

A lot of people in the industry look at any horse that's coming

from California. They come to a different track.

You take a look. That's where I really say that's

why I really start paying attention, right, honestly.

And I like what I saw there at Oakland Park.

I also, again, I'm taking that outside inside angle from that

post position. I think the post position for

one like this is very, very important.

Every time you see this one, it's something that is either

always happening or it just doesn't pan out when this one is

on the inside. We get an out an outer S post

here. And also, I like the fact that

this one has been here long enough that has had a nice work

over the surface here at Churchill Downs.

Yeah, fair enough. I I played it on the five here

and this is Gates of Wire. I'm going to get what number is

that 6:00 to 1:00 on that? So I get I get Todd and Flavian

at six to one and OK, this one tried to bout a youth going two

turns before that was a dominant winner of the Swale.

So something I'm going to look for in this race is can the

horse go from 7 furlongs to 8? And I think he absolutely can.

I think he absolutely can. And I put the name Pratt on the

screen for a reason. I think a lot of Flabby and

Pratt. I think he's in the best racing

form of anyone in North America right now.

So I trust him very much in that spot.

Off the board pick here too is California Burrito.

Before everyone gets up at Arts about this, oh, Louis, he

finished 7th at the Jeff Ruby Stakes.

I understand perfectly. If you go back and watch the

stretch run of that race, he literally almost collapses on

himself because he trips. If he doesn't trip, he finishes

in the top two or three. He's probably in the Kentucky

Derby and we're trying to figure out what to do with them.

OK, I think you just draw a line through that.

Go back to Churchill Downs in November.

He ran it a mile and a 16th. He doesn't have to do the two

turns here. I think California burritos more

than live. Irving Mulcada knows the course

here super well. He's I just think California

Burrito could be the next Sees the Gray in this spot.

I'm fascinated to see him run here as well.

You're the four on your handicap.

I do smoking wicked there I love.

The one as well. Yeah, Dallas, we were Brian

Hernandez. I love Dallas around here.

Yeah, we, yes, we did. We love Dallas anywhere.

We love Dallas anywhere. Come on.

Again, this is where it's interesting because you're

talking about a horse. This is a horse that's very

familiar with that shoot type of brace over here for the mile

distance. We've seen him win at the seven

furlongs before. It's a little bit of a similar

dynamic, a little bit of a similar track configuration,

just a little bit longer. I think he'll able to handle

this distance no problem. It's when you're talking about a

horse that kind of gets that front end kind of position and

you're talking about a shoot race, they get a little bit more

time than you would normally think on any type of turn,

right? So I can see this horse kind of

getting up to the lead and I would have 0 problems with it.

So I think just the way that the race sets up for him, we're

looking to see a little bit of a bounce back after that.

Lafayette. Louisiana bred.

They bred that one for 3500 bucks.

Why not let's go win a grade 2? That would be great in that

spot. Other horses you've almost

certainly heard of innovators in this field as well.

And so lots and lots of real high end talent ended up in the

Pat Day Mile this year. We move on to the turf Sprint.

By the way, good luck. 5 1/2 furlongs here.

Grade 2 on on Saturday. I'll start with Coppola.

And this to me is is more of a he's really good at Churchill

Downs. Any 2nd off kind of pick.

This is what Romans does well as well is is these turf sprints.

He hits it over 20% in these. It's a guy that normally is

hitting in the teens or lower teens, that kind of thing.

So I'll look for the one Coppola, the one, the one spot

is going to make him have to go, and I think that's what he's

going to be. Here and well, but the problem

is there's going to be a lot of horses that are doing the same

thing. So we've seen him get up to the

lead and get up and do it well. How much is he going to be able

to take that company all the way?

Around. Oh, sorry, yeah, sure.

So, but we would you live on the topic.

I let's, let's do enough Louis bashing.

I do that on the mornings anyway for our ESPN Louisville show

over at Churchill Downs. Yeah.

Everybody likes it. Don't.

Worry that's, well, they they, I believe.

They excited with you. It took two days.

If they excited with you, I understand.

I want to. I see.

I will take you out of the state on Saturday.

It's. Fine, I see the text they

requested so and I just. I just obliged.

I get to return the favor on WBAL Preakness in a couple

weeks. So I go with Rogue Lightning

over here at an international horse that ran over at Keeneland

for the same distance there in the Shaker town.

For me, I like the like you. I like the Flavian pride angle.

But this is more where we get a Flavian second ride.

Now Flavian is going to, if you take a look at the recent forum

over in the European races coming from off of the pace and

all of a sudden we get to America and we're on the front

end. So first of all, that's enough.

That's it's a pattern change in the horse's style and sometimes

they need a race or two to figure out and kind of just get

that muscle memory going to get that make that win happen.

So I think what I honestly think happened, I think a couple

different options there. Pratt, this horse might have

just been sharp and Pratt just kind of went with it and said,

hey, let's change things up and they might revert back to that

off of the pace effort. And I if they do, I think will

think that works out. But I just think this horse,

second time here in the States, is going to be helping.

Out as well. Yeah, I have him third in my

handicap. I totally agree with you on that

angle. I think that he's going to come

out of that really, really well. I think in my notes you have

second North American start, right?

So being stateside, very difficult to win the first time.

We even see American horses shipped to the Arabian Peninsula

need a race back in the United States before they really get

their feedback under them. So in this case, I agree with

you about Rogue Lightning. I also have the three in here.

No balls. I watched this horse win the

Breeders Cup Turf Sprint just a couple of years ago at Santa

Anita. I made a couple of British guys

really happy because they were like, who are the fast American

horses in this race? And I was like, no balls.

The fastest horse. It's OK to say Larry Rubelli, of

course, on that one. I just, I've seen this horse too

many times do the darn thing and he has been spectacular.

Churchill Downs, massive caveat. It's a new turf course that he's

run on. As far as I'm concerned, it's

not whatever it was last time he ran.

We'll leave that conversation for another time.

But I think, I think those two horses, if I get 10 to one, 6:00

to 1:00 and 7:00 to 2:00, I mean, that's an exact way to

happen. There's a, there's a pretty

decent chance that no balls is going to be coming at a little

bit of a higher price. I can see that, right.

So yeah, yeah, those are nice sets and some value.

All right, who else? Do you have enough?

I go with the recipe ride underneath as well just because

this is and I remember seeing this horse at Kentucky Downs and

this is a horse to me that just needs he likes running off a

little bit more time than typical horses in between races.

So his timeline is just fitting perfect here.

So that's my main take away with the recipe, right.

You have to trust a Wesley board in Kentucky on the turf as well.

No question about it. That's a good angle.

I agree. Kelly Francois Lou, you're Beau

hanging out with you on the blood horse feed and of course

with our friends at first bed, first bed.com.

Go check them out tonight. The Churchill Downs is a grade

one. It is race 8 here.

We're going 7 furlongs on the dirt course.

This is for older horses as well. 1,000,000 bucks and the

and the kidding for this yeah like 1,000,000 bucks. 1,000,000

bucks or I guess. I'm happy to go with.

That mine frames in this race and and this just adds to that 4

year old group of who is just absolutely stepping up.

By the way, you probably recognize just stealing this

company from the Derby last year as well, but we get Book of Dano

in this spot and I know you're on Book of Dano in here.

I'm on mind frame in here. I think the seven furlongs is

right. Do you think the seven is right

for Book of Dan? Oh, 1000% And I think coming

back off of that, that colonial effort, they're just getting

this horse warmed up. I think they tried and every

time this horse tried for longer distances, something goes always

happen. It's just never been the best.

So I also love the fact that I think this horse is brilliant as

on a first, on a just individual level, second off of the

layoffs. So I just think that the

distance is going to be absolutely perfect, no questions

there about it. What do you make of Nisos coming

back in this spot? If you remember, Nisos was a

big, big winner of the Robert B Lewis.

The first prep on the Santa Anita Derby route last year.

Went down with injury after that.

Took a long time off actually, obviously more than a year since

he ran last. What do you think of nice looks

in this spot? I don't think this is an

accident by trainer Bob. Baffert No, then this is exactly

So this is something I would fully expect of Bob Baffert to

bring this horse back on this type of race because he's just

that good. I mean, you look at how this

horse is run and all three of us start.

So if Bob is bringing this horse back, because this is the same

nice looks that we have seen beforehand, we're not going to

see any different type of nice looks.

You know, that's, that's specifically Bob's just going

for the money. I don't blame him for shipping

for this one for sure. I know you have my frame in your

in your handicapping as well, but you're looking at Mulliken

on the outside and I like this. Yeah, definitely.

I mean, you know, different trips in those last two starts

will get kind of it just kind of gives me a little bit of a crazy

if you compare it to here's the thing, he had a bit of a really

tough calendar in that summer fall situation.

So then you got some time off and then when they come back,

you know, that first race after some time away, sometimes it

just it's not quite sticking. So what they did is they gave

this horse additional time and I think this horse is going to be

coming fresh. So there's no, there's not

really going to be any bouts here.

That's what it's mostly the way this horse has been managed that

I just really, really seem to appreciate.

We move on to the next slide with everybody in the American

turf, which is one of the great races anywhere in the world

every year will be race 9. This year it is a Grade 1 and

and look, it's a mile and a 16th on the turf course there at

Churchill Downs. We're giving out 1,000,000 bucks

for this one as well. And Kelly, I'll let you go first

here. I think this is the kind of race

where there are ten horses in here you could convince me of.

Yep, that probably sounds about right.

Where did you land in the American turf here?

Yeah, the American turf. Just give me a second, OK?

My contacts have dried up and I can't see a thing on my screen.

If only there were an eye doctor here.

So the American, there we go, the American turf, we we both

found the same horse, Louis. I don't like that at all.

How about that? That's how that's you know that.

8 To what? Louis Cyrus.

Charlie's to blame. There you go.

In my house, that's actually true.

I have a son named Charlie. He's probably to blame.

That's where at. The that's a dad joke.

You need to accept dad jokes. If you're going to work with me

and you got to hang out with me like in two more days, then

you're going to hang out to break this, got to get the dad

jokes are a thing. What are you doing?

They are. But why are we?

Why are we both on Charlie's the blame?

You know, I like how on surface this horse is going to be

sustaining better against, you know, the other prefer other

premier speed in this race. You know the only one that's

going to be faster out of the gate.

He can kind of but this one can handle company for a little bit

longer here and he's had that work.

Remember, we might be getting some rain.

He's had a phenomenal work on the yielding turf over at

Keeneland. I think that's just going to

transfer very well, even if the track.

So we're talking about Saturday's race.

We have projected rain on Friday.

Even if we do get, I know the, I know the turf is going to drain

out well enough, but there's still going to be a little bit

of no matter what. And that's where I say, hey, I

think this guy can handle the surface, no.

Problem I agree with you on Charlie's to blame.

Gets back the turf here off that, you know, synthetic

surface. I don't mind them trying and

it's a nice paycheck at Turfway Park that way.

I think he fits well in this spot umberto's on CPO here and I

quite, I kind of don't know what to do with this horse for

Richard Baltis, but this horse was really, really good last out

in the Transylvania. They tried to open that mile to

16th, the furthest the horse has ever gone.

I think of the Transylvania as one of the very best races

leading into this in the country there at Keeneland.

We've been around Umberto this week.

He it's a weird thing to say, but last year I saw Brian

Hernandez junior during the week and he's usually very like, hey,

how's it going? Yeah, Louisiana, blah, blah,

blah. We couldn't talk to that guy

last year because he knew what he was sitting on, right?

When Barry's a little like he's not being rude or anything like

that. Barry's kind of locked in like

that this week too. So I'm going to use the two

here. TPO in this spot because I think

that transfer can translate to Churchill Thousand.

I think he's going to be a player.

On Saturday and I agree with you.

I think I also like the post that this horse is coming out of

as well. He's going to be getting he's

because here's the thing Umberto this horse has the ability to

kind of get there Umberto is the jockey that's going to be able

to make that happen from that 2 ghost.

We saw Juan Hernandez in a turf race at Churchill Downs today,

so obviously the California jocks have arrived and they are

winning on the grass today as well.

Who did you have in second spot here?

Taking a look at my second. Spot you have the 10 here.

Yes, I do. Thank you again, dry contacts.

Bear with me guys. Iron Man Cow we'll.

Get through this together. We will, yes, because we're team

up. So the this trainer off of the

layoff has been doing has. That's not what's I'm going to

sound a little bit paradoxical, but that's not what's selling me

on this one. There's a chance I have him in

seconds specifically. I don't have this horse in my

picks because I think he has a shot to what I think this horse

specifically and your exactos and your tries and your, you

know, longer exotics. I think this horse will need a

race, but I think just overall his class coming into this race,

even if he's not on his best form, there's no question and I

think he's still going to get a piece of it.

I'm going to stun the crowd. I like a Chad Brown horse on the

turf race here. The Seven Zulu Kingdom comes in

here, Flabby and Pratt aboard one last out in the Columbia and

Tampa. But I like about that.

That mile, of course, reminds me, frankly a lot of the mile in

the 16th route at Churchill Downs.

I think it sets up very, very similarly.

This is a horse that's going to be able to just sit off, make

his best run at the end. Second off the layoff here,

second in the form cycle. An incredible angle for Chad

Brown. It's 26% this kind of race.

I think I'd be crazy to leave the source out.

Oh yeah. OK, I.

Have I have no other no notes on that one.

Yes, agreed. How about that?

That was that was nice. I like that part.

All right, so race Ted is the Derby City Distaff.

By the way, if you hear the term Distaff, it's like Oaks, but for

older female horses in this case, 7 furlongs on the dirt

here, Grade 1 means 1,000,000 bucks apparently on Saturday at

Churchill Downs. And so we're doing that again,

but a bunch of horses in here I'm sure people remember from

previous races. Vavas in here, Mystic Lake Ways

and Means, Darth Vader, an alum of our Kentucky Oaks here.

It's out. And of course, Silla, I'm the

Bill Mott barn really burst on the scene last year right in a

bunch of great races, 4 for four lifetime in Churchill Downs.

Who'd you land on in the distance?

I go with Ways and Means here. I mean, they played around

figuring out the right distance for this one as far, you know,

when you talk about that Saratoga Aqueduct wind stretch,

this is a really sweet spot that I think she's going to really

appreciate. She came up, you know, a little

bit short last year off of the layoff going.

A mile and 16th. So now we get this spot here at

the distance of A7 furlongs. I mean, yeah, that's that.

That's right there for me. The Seven.

Furlongs. I think my late long shot on

Derby Day is here. It's Positano.

Sunset was in the 11 for this one and I'm trying to figure out

why this horse is 12 to one. Maybe I just don't know how to

read the form, but she puts up 100 by her last hour.

She wins a handicap before that, changes jocks to Julian

Leparoux, goes ahead and closes into it.

I'm wondering if we won't get a pay stool up front she's going

to be able to close into it. In this case, I get it.

If you look at her lifetime record, you would think she does

not belong in this kind of this kind of company.

But I think this daughter of Golden Sense is absolutely

running her best right now. We just kind of, I think we've

forgotten the last 5-10 years of horse racing because so many of

the best horses ran off to breed after their three-year old

seasons. Hey, once a while when they turn

by, they get better. It's OK.

It's OK if they get better as they get older.

And so in my mind, posatonal sunset here.

I'll take the 12.1 all day. Absolutely.

I go underneath with Mystic Lake as well.

Sappy Joseph Edgar Zio ships in here for Kentucky, which is

something that I love. And for the most part she likes

kind of using braces to get into that top peak performance.

And you know, you look at the insider info state she was, you

know, coming into that race. That's kind of what I'm seeing

here from that effort last time on the Madison.

The 14 on the very outside in this spot is a horse named Text

at 30 to 1. And look, I I love the added

distance in here. I think this is the spot where

this would be really, really good for if you look at our last

outing at Oakland Park, another one that's going to be slightly

off the pace here. I'll take the 30 to one in a

Christian Torres ride at Churchill down for Randy Morse.

I, I the two of them 21% together, trader jockey combo.

I think they they work really, really well together.

I don't know why I think that Cilla's not going to get up

here, her ways of peace or something, but I think the long

shots of the disc African. Then I could very well see that

you talk about the style that this one has, especially going

to six furlongs and where this one, why isn't getting those

wins at that shorter distances. That just means asking for more

distance. And I think they've tried it

before. You take a look, not only in

that last, not just in that last one, but the win all the way

back in May, late May of last year, that was going a mile at

that Churchill Downs, that same shoot scenario.

We just shorten it up. Perfect perfect distance for

this one. The Turf Classic is race 11.

It is the last race before the Kentucky Derby.

It is one mile and an eighth on the turf, on the turf there at

Churchill Downs. All of us Cali have a favorite

race track, a favorite course that we love, whether it's the

downhill turf course at Santa Anita or or another place.

My favorite route, if any track is a mile underneath the

Churchill. I love how they start at the top

of the stretch. They do the full two turns.

It is absolutely my favorite. I'm not saying I look forward to

this race more than the Kentucky Derby.

I'm not saying that, but I love this race.

It is something I always look forward to.

And and so I'm I'm so, so happy that we get to talk about it

every year. I'm on Spirit of Saint Louis

here because my name's in it, but rather because Louis science

gets the bet them out here for Chad Brown.

I think he can get back to his previous form ran really well in

the Muniz last year. Last down that form last year

translated from the fairgrounds to Churchill Downs.

I'm going to lean on it again this year.

And look, he won the Pegasus earlier this year, right?

He's obviously capable of winning at the very, very

highest levels. Only thing I worry about with

him and I won't, I won't hide from this is if he won't, if

he'll be OK on softer go. But he does have wins over good

go in the past at a lower level, but he has progressed since

then. I think he's going to be OK in

here. I also think we're going to get

all a nine to two on this. No, I and I said Lewis Heisler,

there's maybe Franco. I apologize, but I I think this

is a spot where we're going to get a closer in here.

I think Manny Franco's as much of A candidate.

Hears it and I agree with that. Manny's going to put this horse

in a good spot, capable at any racetrack, not just in New York

as well. I go with the inside horse.

We're going to be outside to the inside.

Let's get here in integration for Sugar Mcgehee, Frankie

Dettori here, and this is an op. And on my notes, I say

opportunity for aggression. And I say that with the fact

that this one coming off the layoff, I would have preferred,

it's OK that we're coming out a mile here with this one.

Now that we're at a mile and an eighth that's a little bit more

suitable for the distance on this one.

It gives Frankie a little bit more time to get this horse in

that more front spot because he has that full front size that we

have here at Churchill Downs for this race configuration.

For him to just kind of take that time and take it to the

maps. There's so many good horses in

this race. Oh my gosh, yeah.

All right, Yeah, I agree with you.

Integration is the other class having in the second spot here.

Why don't we talk about redistricting once in a while.

It's good to just bet the other Chad Brown in this race, it will

be the four horse. I have been underwhelmed largely

in big races with Irad Ortiz Junior lately.

That is going to flip at some point and I think it could be in

this spot. You're not going to get 12:50.

I apologize in advance. I appreciate this being on the

morning line, 10 to 1. I think we'll get like 6-5 to 1

on this kind of horse and I think that's absolutely.

Planned and definitely fair. You know, after that effort last

time out, we just didn't see this one fire what we expected

to. I like this one a little bit

better. Just second off the layoff in

general. All right.

So we're going to walk through the Derby field now, OK.

And so are there any questions on any of the undercard races

that we have done so far? I'm stunned that Michael

Columbus has raised his hand, but I think he's also trying to

work. So that's why on top of that as

well. All right, well, again, Callie

Francois, Louis Rabo hanging out with you on the Blood Force

stream. Catch us this week.

By the way, on Blood Force Monday we did a, we did a 2 hour

show. What was it?

Did it start to smell in there or was it OK?

It worked that way. OK.

All right. OK.

I shot, I showered for that one. My, my focus was, you know, on

the podcast, not necessarily, you know.

The odors, yeah, I got it. OK.

There is a question in the back of the room.

I definitely want to get to that.

Do you expect the turf to be open and playable?

So that's a great question. You're especially talking about

Friday, right? For the races on Friday, here is

here is the the incentive to race.

And I think we saw a little bit of it today at Churchill Downs.

They had moved that that that rail way out today and the

horses were running on the very outside part of that course

today. I think in anticipation of maybe

beating it up on Friday and Saturday.

If you if you move a race off of a a turf, if you switch surfaces

at an integrated sticks, it moves down a brake.

They don't want the American turf beat a grade two this year.

They don't want, you know, any of those races on Friday to move

from a grade 2 to a grade 3 or Grade 1 to a grade two.

That is not in the best interest of Churchill Downs.

They'll be on the turf. It'll just you'll watch the rail

because I think it's going to move in and out.

Go ahead. That being said, yes, have you

looked at soft tracks versus yes, I always see that in turf

forces. That's right.

It's 1 minus. So it's a good point that you

bring up. And so you had just mentioned

one that had run well on a softer turf, as did I.

It's Spirit of Saint Louis, for example.

I mentioned you can look in the past performances of what the

what the surface as well. We'll look at this later

together. OK, this one has one over what's

called good go, which means it's softer than firm go.

OK, then we can work our way all the way down to what's called

yielding, which means they step in and it's a puddle essentially

something like that, right? Get to get to more European

style turf races at that point. But I'm happy to go over that

with you later. But yes, that's part of the

reason I have Spirit Saint Louis where I do because he ran before

on softer go. Had no issue with it.

I think if it pops up again this weekend, he'll be fine.

So yes, good question for sure. All right, Derby field, you're

ready. Are you ready?

You're first Kentucky Derby, let's go.

How about that? All right, we'll start on the

inside Citizen Bowl. Bob Baffert comes out of a very

disappointing San Anita Derby, but worth mentioning the last

three. The last three horses that won

the Breeders Cup Juvenile and then won their first race as a

three-year old. 2 Derby winners and a third place in the Derby.

So sleep on Citizen Ball at your own risk.

Sleep on Citizen Ball at your absolute own risk.

He is absolutely live in this race.

Tell me why he's not. Well, to be honest, yes, I

looked what I I've been watching him in the mornings and it he

has not been my track pick from what I've seen this week prior

to Kentucky Derby 151. One hole, new gate.

Does that bother you? No, in fact, I prefer the one

hole persistent vote because he plays, he has one card to play

and I think he's he needs to take every single advantage that

he can getting to the front end here in this.

Race all right again about that for trainee after the

disqualification tied again for the most all time, but we'll

look to move back in the 1st place there.

You know echos comes in for Saffy Joseph Junior.

Worth mentioning that if I ASA does draw in here, Flavio Pratt

will not be riding, but if he does not, he will be aboard.

I think this is the prettiest horse in the Derby, but that the

horse doesn't always. Win.

Well, this is not a beauty contest.

Oh, man, I yeah, I'm, I'm good in those.

All right. Well, Neil Eppos comes in.

Saffy Joseph Junior does have the best man blonde chest hair

combination in horse racing, so at least he's got that going.

It's a spectacular barbading combination.

I'm very jealous, but hey, it is what it is.

Final game that comes in a local prep winner at Surfway Park.

It as impressive a win, frankly, as we had in any of the 100

point races on the synthetic. We've seen a lot of horses that

have come out of Turfway recently. 2 Phil's finishing

second, obviously right before that Rich Strike wins the whole

darn thing. We've seen some good horses come

out of their transition to the dirt of Churchill Downs,

especially very well that I have final camp winning, but if he

ends up in the top 3-4, I'm not surprised.

It's same and you also take a look at those workouts and the

way this horse travels on the dirt and with exuberance I've

that's I have this horse I think amongst my top five picks on the

field here. I've hurt the Derby.

I think it's the biggest question is can he do that?

But can he do that at this type of distance?

That's a real question here, but a suit, just an assumption that

Machado is going to just keep this horse sitting back and make

one run at it because we see in those works, I see that turn of

foot that we've seen in prior races.

Of course, Brad Cox awarded the Derby for Man to Looney.

He's been very clear with me, though.

He wants to be there in person where his horse crosses first

and really stand in the Derby winner's circle.

I've seen way weirder things at final get way weirder things at

horse racing. Rodriguez is in the poor hole

here. Go ahead, Sir.

Has he gotten his money yet? I from the Ruby, I would hope

so. Oh, from the oh from Mandalu

yes, that has been paid off yes, that that that lawsuit is over.

So yes, Mr. Cox has received this check.

That's right. Rodriguez comes in the other

Baffert trainee in here, obviously a couple of years away

has been Bob Baffert from this race, a son of authentic.

We saw him finish top three in the Derby before as well.

So this is a good a good stock here.

Win the Derby, I should say good.

That's gracious. Authentic gets the lead in 2020,

gets battled by TIS the law, goes ahead and wins.

Rodriguez is going to have to do something similar to win the

Derby. And he will, he's going to be

having a lot of company on that front end, especially with a

number of horses to at least the one in the 2 horse that we just

talked about in Symbol and Neo Echo.

So I know he you've seen this horse when at the Wood Memorial

and so. I'm horribly biased, as I

mentioned earlier. Well, and so that's where I'm

going to kind of take the other direction with it.

And I'm just not sure he's going to be totally game to be on the

front. If he ends up on the front and

battling it out, I think the game is over for him.

We have seen him be OK sitting right off of it and kind of stay

in that steady position. But when you're talking about

the Derby, it's just a lot of horses.

I just question whether it's able to handle that company.

He comes in at 12 to 1. He stayed right around that

number in the live betting as well.

If you case you are wondering American promise comes in a

unique qualifier for the Derby because you qualify over one

turn in the brand new dirt based Virginia Derby.

Now Adam Island and 8th. This is Dean Wayne Lucas.

Bet against this guy. Troll risk of course of.

Course, this is, I believe this is 51st.

It's one. It's the crazy numbers that

Wayne Lucas has had. From I'm shaking my head in in

respect, I promise you. Finally, that's right.

I've seen a couple of head chicks around there and I was

like, oh, did I get the number wrong?

But. Here's the thing about American

Promises that he's just kind of, he's like a lumberjack out

there. He's just got this big lumbering

stride and I just worry about the dynamic of that type of

style that he's got running style with the multitude of

possibilities that could happen in the Derby as far as trouble

goes. So when he's on the when he's a

horse that kind of needs lead on the five posts, I do worry about

that. But I did run into Gary Stevens.

I was next to Gary Stevens during the draw.

I talked about, I talked about it.

He. Was right next to us during the

draw. You're right.

Yeah, I went up. I just went up to.

I was. There for moral support and I

talked about I just when I saw him on the track a couple days

later, I discussed with him how he really felt about that post

and he has the full confidence that Nick Morris is going to be

able to get this horse up front there for 1:51.

It's a total toss for me, all right.

I would love to be wrong for sure.

I think the story would be spectacular.

His post race after winning the Oaks is at 2022.

That is the best press conference I'll ever go to.

The rest of my life. It's done.

I could do this another 30 years.

It won't matter, Lucas. But you went at the Preakness

press conference then last year because that was also a

phenomenal lane, Lucas. Performance.

I was not there for that, You're right, I don't know.

I was on the roof cashing tickets.

Admire Daytona will be the 6th horse there.

Christoph Lemaire into ride. This is the UAE Derby winner.

Last year we watched Forever Young take this path to the

Derby and finish in that historic photo.

Finish three-way photo. Finish there with Sierra Leone

and of course winner Mystic Dan. You and I are both of the same

opinion here. Matter of time before Japanese

based horse wins this thing. It's.

Their their program has just been so phenomenal, slowly but

surely building these horses up into a really high quality

caliber, not of course only in Japan and in other countries as

well, but in the States here on the dirt, I think.

That makes a huge The dirt part is the biggest part there.

You're exactly right about that, Kelly.

He comes in here out of the UAE Derby.

We haven't seen great success out of that race until forever

young. Did that change your opinion

about this horse for this year? A little bit, it was solely and

we'll get to the other Japanese horse as well, but you take a

look at those races in Japan and then you take a look at what

happened in Maidan and that horse just commit and Myra

Daytona just commanded that race.

And I love the finish, the gritty finish that we saw at the

end of it. So I always worry about a horse

shipping over from the Middle East and running next in the

States in the next race. That's my only concern I really

do have about this horse. But, and I know it's been

discussed amongst others about kind of those times in Japan and

and that's where I kind of get sold on him because he just goes

right to the front. Got it.

So it's interesting for very interesting Japanese.

Horse for me I with him he is the character of the race when

he gets so the Japanese horse is because of how the Japanese run

their program have to stay in what's called a quarantine bar

far away from other forces and he when he knows he's going to

the tracks starts to he starts to Yelp he gets really excited

it's adorable frankly, and so if you haven't seen it looking up

on social media admire Daytona go find his stuff.

It's just a very, very funny story that way, but just I, I

don't know the connections are ready.

I mean, it's it's oh, he's been fun of the mornings.

I that story. I would be very, very OK with.

Luxor Cafe comes in the other Japanese trainee or base horse,

I should say in this one out of the Kuku Rayu devastating late

kick in that race. Kelly.

We were talking about it with our friends from first that

earlier tonight that it's hard to know because that wasn't as

fast of a race as the other ones were.

But that late kick is in is undeniable for me.

He's the better of the two Japanese entries here.

Agree and in fact, I have this horse in my track back to Turkey

Derby here for my picks. I think you know, he's he's also

vested admire Daytona in in the previous races over there in

Japan and he's had a couple of and he's grown in the sense of

my biggest question is that I saw this in that previous stick

that you mentioned where it got a little fussy getting into that

first turn. And I think a part of it was

just kind of getting in horses a little bit of was kickback.

So when you talk about kickback, I mean the kickback at the Derby

is, is it's. Going to be more.

Different levels. So that's a little bit of a

concern, but I, I do think here's the thing.

The rider who won on the previous stakes of Rachel King,

she was slated to ride and then Marrero rode this horse last

time out and Marrero was completely booked over there in

Japan and he's just won a bunch of stakes in this past weekend.

He told the Connections that he was completely booked for May

and he would not be able to make the Derby.

Well, he sat on this horse. He said, hey, guess what?

I'm planning my schedule. I'm coming to Kentucky.

So Luxor Cafe will break from the 7th.

Shameless plug, if you haven't watched the Blood Horse Monday

episode yet with Cave and Kate Hunter, you should go and check

that out. Find out how unbelievably

complicated it is to get the Japanese horse to the starting

game for the Kentucky Derby. Really appreciated her jumping

on with us on Blood Horse Monday, our podcast that comes

out every week. Journalism's the favorite here,

Callie. I'll go ahead and say it.

He's in the 8 hole here. He is a well deserved favorite

in this spot. If we have a horse that's going

to win multiple Triple Crown races this year, I think it's

him. People picking journalism, by

the way, that's not the worst thing that's ever happened.

Sometimes you just have to pick the best source.

And you do. And honestly, I was not

convinced until we saw that last race in California.

And this is me talking. We're talking good things about

a California horse who didn't come out of a, you know, super

big field. But but the action and the

dynamic of what happened in that last race, the way he's able to

overcome some adversity, the way he.

That's the kind of trouble that we'll see in the Derby, just

because the trouble can happen and not just in, just because it

happened in what, a six horse field.

The dynamic is still the dynamic 5 horse field.

I thought it was 5 but I gave I got.

You're trying to be nice. Yeah, you know.

I gave 6 horse field. You got to get out the the

auxiliary gate at Santa Anita. So they were like, never mind.

Don't. Fair enough.

So I think, but trouble is trouble no matter what.

And if you're able to overcome it, I think it was just a great

conference booster coming. In Mike McCarthy and Roberto

riskily combining that one he sought of Curlin the eclipse

folks. We we sat down with them on

blood horse Monday like, hey, you want to talk about built?

It was early in the in the in the Derby channel.

They were like, hey, let's let's talk about journalism.

And this was before, of course, his romp in the San Felipe where

he really not caught all of our attention for sure.

Burnham Square, I don't know how to do this because the buzz

horse is the horse with the most points.

Burnham Square is the buzz horse this week.

I don't quite know what to do about that, but we're going to

talk about it anyway. Makes that very, very late run

at Keeneland and we'll get into E Ave. in a minute.

I think we're underrating E Avenue, but we'll start with

Burnham Square here. I don't.

I can't remember a time when the horse with the most points was

under the radar and then goes ahead and becomes the buzz horse

here going back. If you want to see this horse at

his very, very best, it didn't happen at Keeneland.

This is going to be second in the form cycle here for him in a

newer 1 here with this race. Go back and watch his Holy Bowl.

He falls back early in the race and he's asked by in that race,

Edgar Zayez to make an earlier move that he's comfortable with

on the backstretch. Goes ahead, makes that move,

gets back into company, gets into a pocket where he can make

the last move in the Holy Bowl, goes ahead and wins that one.

I think amongst the two or three most professional runs in any

Derby prep race this year, Berlin Square, I think almost a

must include if you're going to go in a deeper kind of trifecta,

kind of. Play.

And that's exactly what has given me this horse as my top

selection for the Derby. I think that the way and not

only that, I've looked at the fact that I've looked at not

only his horse's wins, but his losses as well.

And I've seen especially even in his second start at Churchill

Downs, the gallabout, yes, it was a mile and 16th.

The gallabout was phenomenal. They were.

That gallabout lasted all the way until the middle of the

backside. And they the the job was armed,

was losing an arm wrestling match.

And so on top of that, I've seen this horse get into trouble time

and time again and I've seen him overcome it.

I am very impressed with him coming in.

And of course Ian Wilkes ran into him earlier.

He is thrilled with how the horse is doing on a physicality

wise. Grande will be in the 10 hole

here. Kelly, Francois, Louiebro

hanging out with you. Blood Horse and bloodhorse.com

for all of our coverage and Blood Force funding for the

podcast. Hanging out with first Bet

tonight. Once St. bet.com, go check them

out right now up to a $250 bonus for you.

Go check them out. Use our code ESPN 250 when you

get over there as well. Grande comes in off a second

place finish in the Wood Memorial only three races under

his belt. Did win his first two wins on to

be as a maiden, then goes ahead and wins against winners for the

first time down there at Gulfstream Park and going 2

terms. Right.

So this force has never started at less than a mile distance.

Distance ain't going to be the issue here.

I thought he made a really good run in the wood because he was

caught 6 wide in that field and still made a good run at the

end. If there is another boss horse,

I think it's becoming him and and Fletcher's been so quiet

he's kept him at Keeneland. It's been an interesting week

with him. And it's and it's well earned

because just I typically with the Todd pleasure first time

starter, even if they end up going long, he's starting them

short. So with him going right to the

cutting, right to the tape chase and going long, they knew what

they had right off the get go. Now you're talking about a

little bit of the style. He did not get his way last time

out and that you could say, Oh, the horse was a little bit flat.

But again, I'm going to refer to the fact that that was a pattern

change. So when they have that, they

just sometimes need a race to adjust to that and it may

listen. It's going to have to be in the

Kentucky Derby where he just kind of polishes is that style.

But that means that you can kind of set this horse anywhere.

This horse will 100% be moving forward off of that effort last

time out. Flying Mohawk.

Local connection here with Beckman trains.

Joe Ramos, first ride in the Kentucky Derby, one of my

favorites up there. Of course you Indianapolis horse

finished second to qualify in the Jet Ruby Stakes.

Made a very, very good late run to do that just that.

Where do you have Flying Mohawk? I have him probably in my middle

of the picks. I could see this, I could see

this horse and I've we've seen, you know, slated turf horses run

well in the Derby and we've seen it, we've seen it before time

and time again. So for me, it's a little I have

an I have an opinion of the fact where I when I see him work and

he's working well on the dirt, no question about that.

But his his tempo is just a little bit slower than what we

have seen on the dirt on the turf with him prior to that and

even what we've seen on in the Jeff Ruby Stakes.

So for me, a little bit of a trip dependent horse, but very

tough. And I think he's going to be

tough until the end. And hey, no matter what this

horse is going to be giving it is all.

East Avenue comes in, he's the 12, he's 20 to one.

You're already tired of hearing about this.

Hi, folks. I'm Louie Rebone.

I think E Avenue is really underrated and I I think what he

did in the Bluegrass is unbelievably underrated.

Everything that he did last out before that in the Risen Star,

he could have done again in the Bluegrass he did not have.

He is the fastest horse in this race as far as I'm concerned.

He's going to give my top pick a lot of trouble.

We'll get to that on the next slide, but I think this one

comes in. He needed that race to get a

little bit of confidence. I think he did all of the work

in the Bluegrass. I think he's absolutely a

contender in this league. Can he get the 10 furlongs?

I have no idea. I have no idea, but I have that

question about about 17 of the horses, so I'm not even mad

about that. I am interested, though, in East

Avenue. I think he's going to be part of

the early pace. I think he's the fastest horse

of the Derby. If that matters to you, use

them. If you're looking for a hanger

that's going to be in the exact trifecta, he might be that

horse. And and that's exactly it.

My, my thing about East Avenue is I we are going to be good

seeing a great performance by him with Brandon Brendan Walsh

earlier again, going to blood horse for some socials to find

that interview, especially on the YouTube channel, but going

to be seeing improvement off of the bluegrass.

I just think I, I think he's just going to get kicked if he

does. If he does last this distance,

he's still going to be beat by a dirty nose.

If you were in the Pat Day Mile, he'd be, what, 3 to 5?

And he would win and it would be boring, all the things, right?

Yeah. So glad.

Luckily he said yeah, We don't mean that.

Yeah, yeah, Yeah. Rahul did the Pat Day Mile.

All right, then. Publisher in the 13 here.

I read Ortiz for Steve Asmussen comes in and made it.

Yeah. And look, I don't think the all

time winningest trader in North America is entering a maiden by

accident in the Kentucky Derby. What have you seen from

Publisher looks very comfortable at Churchill Downs.

What have you seen from? So as far as from just a racist

standpoint, he's gotten into trouble and is he, has he got

into enough trouble where these egregious, you know, efforts

where it's made an impact? Yes.

However, when it comes to it, I think he's very comfortable in

his spot of just following the leader a little bit.

However, Steve is very, very high on this horse and I think

just because we have not seen him run again since since

Arkansas, there's a chance that this horse could still move

forward mentally off that. And I fully think Steve is

expecting that here. I just need to see it.

You and I did the Derby draw last week on the Horse Racing

Happy Hour special guest Bobby Flay.

Shameless plug, Go check that out.

He picked Sandman with his top pick.

Sandman bested publisher in that race, so if Bobby's right about

Sandman being real, quality, Publisher might be too.

Yeah, exactly. So it's just a matter of is this

horse, has he had enough of playing bridesmaid?

Is he ready to just, you know, be in the top spot?

We'll find out. I used to work with a guy named

Danis. Yeah.

What you know about Danis, He used to say sometimes they're

just horses, Louis. They figured it out.

They get the same food if they finished third, if they finished

first. And so that publisher might be

one of those his task that comes in.

He's one of my favorites in the Derby because he actually has a

giant white stripe on his nose. So I actually know who he is

during the lookouts. I swear 15 of these horses look

exactly the same. And then there's his tacit God

bless him. He comes in for Steve as must

here Joel Rosario gets the mound.

This was one on the draft. By the way, Travis Stone calls

races to Churchill very high on him as far as this as an

opportunity here comes in off the Louisiana Derby win Island 3

sixteenths there only has to go half for a lump further.

I gave Tastic on a silver platter to Travis in that Derby

draft and I do regret it a little.

Bit you're not a great general manager as far as drafts, that's

what we learned during the Derby draft.

It's OK, we'll move on to try it next year.

We have we, you know, and that's what we're all about.

Learning. It's learning.

Yes, exactly. And when it comes to Tastic, I

think again need to just see just a little bit more.

But I think the screw it's, we just need to see the.

Whatever the next happens, yeah, he's going to have to take it.

He's going to have to take it, and I think he's halfway there.

I think he may just need one more race, but I think we'll get

to this on another horse. The same theory, but the Derby

might wake him up a little. Bit tis the law, of course.

His sire won the Belmont at a mile and an eighth over 1 turn

in. Gosh, was that July?

Can't remember now. Something like that.

Up in New York in 2020, of course.

Ran second in the Kentucky Derby.

Too authentic in 2020 as well. Render judgement drew into the

field after Japan St. unfortunately had to run off and

get surgery. But render judgement in here

Blood Horse Monday. Go and watch our interview with

Brooke Smith. He's out of his mind.

I love that guy Brooke. If you're watching you're out of

your mind. I love you.

People are laughing because they know I'm right.

All right, but render judgement gets in here.

What I said to him in the interview, I totally mean, who

has more experience routing at Churchill Downs in the current

crop than Julian Leperoux? I mean, he really does.

He's been on this day many, many times.

I don't love this horse. I'm not going to lie.

I'm not going to pick him here or anything like that.

We have seen way weirder things to Julian Leveroux getting a

piece of the dermy. We have, this is a very even

paced horse, a very steady Eddy type.

And again, you can't, it's hard to really get behind those types

when you're talking about a, you know, a bunch of three-year olds

in a 20 horse field. It's hard.

It's hard to overcome. Brooks excitement.

So shout out to Brooke. Oh yeah.

Look, if if, if if render judgement wins the Derby,

there's a decent chance Brooke and I are like running around

the into. I mean like, like what?

Like I'm I'm all render judgement today.

A cold battle comes in the 16. This is one of the cooler

stories here in the Derby itself.

They bred this horse for $2000. Lottie Briley's never been in

this kind of spot. He's well to do his 70's.

The story's awesome. And by the way, this is a legit

horse. It's OK to say out loud that

Arkansas route was really, really good this year.

He wins the Rebel prior to the Arkansas Derby.

Just finished third in that race, but obviously had plenty

of points to qualify here keeping Vargas aboard.

I love this story. I think this is a big ass for

this. It's a big ass, but we've seen

I've seen him go overcome again. I'm a bit you're you're getting

the idea that I'm a bit of a trip girl.

So I think this is another one where I've seen him get into

trouble. He's overcome it.

He's going to be he's again, this, this is a horse that's

going to leave everything on the race track.

But the problem is that is it hasn't been flashy enough to

really showcase that he could do a real 1-2 punch on some of

these top horses that we have in the favorites here.

He's the most dirt looking horse in the field.

Yes, very low runner. Yes, right.

He he looks like a dirt horse, if that matters to you.

Wears little red markings on his face when he comes out in the

mornings as well. Sandman comes in in the 17.

Hey Kelly, how many horses have one out of the 17?

0. Does that matter?

No. For Sean Collins, it does The.

It's a big time for Sean Collins.

Where are you, Sean Collins? No, it's no, I don't.

It doesn't bother me at all. This is Bobby Flay's topic.

He went into it. He thought that run in the

stretch in the Arkansas Derby could be something to build on

and that he could be less green in the Kentucky.

Yes. Do you agree with that?

No. OK, I don't know.

How about that Bobby Flay? Eat it.

How about? That so.

I feel like he eats one, right, Chef?

Yeah, yeah, it. Works, yeah, great play on words

there. But I do think he is going to be

needing one more race. I think mentally he's just not

quite there yet. I think he's, I think he's going

to run and Mark Cass, he's going to say, hey, this is a great

force to go in the Belmont and I would think that would be a

great decision. I think we will see him at

Saratoga as well. Sovereignty comes in.

I am standing next to someone I know who is a sovereignty fan

here. This force is live odds right

now, like 15 to 1. I don't understand betting

apparently. I think this is the very most

talented force in this field. I don't know that he wins the

Derby because it's running sour fires him in a 20 horse field,

probably to pass about 15 other horses.

But I think he's very much the most talented horse in this race

as far as his talent, training, connections, breeding, all of

the things sovereignty wins this race.

I think he'll be a deserving winner.

He reminds me a lot of the setup that mage got two years ago

where he was taken, you know, not able to quite get there in

the Florida Derby. Comes in as a second place

finisher. By the way, if he's double digit

odds, that's I'm I'm sorry, honey, I'm selling a car Betty.

I mean, like, that's ridiculous. I mean, it's no, it's absolutely

absurd that this horse would be anywhere near 15 to 1.

Million post I agree. I think you know, there's a

reason again, this is a horse that has had a little bit of a

buzz probably within the two, you know, two weeks leading up

into this. And you take a look at the fact

that he's he's obviously going to be going forward from that

Florida Derby effort. And I think the Florida Derby

effort was a little bit underrated.

But over time, as these races have gone by for sovereignty,

we've every single race I see a little bit more of a quick

response when the button is pushed to kind of give that turn

of foot. So I it's for a big kind of a

big imposing guy. It's been quicker and quicker

and he's getting it mentally. He's there.

It's just a matter of fact if is he going to be able to get a

well enough trip to help him out.

So he ran in the streets, that's of course, here at Churchill

Downs and broke his maiden into grade three.

Yes. And I remember seeing him on the

form and going, oh, he's in the nine.

No one else is going to notice this Baden.

And he went off as the favorite, of course, goes ahead and

dominates the Churchill Downs. We've seen him working.

Looks very, very good. He's got the best back end of

any horse in the Yeah. Exactly.

Got that mower. He's ready to go.

Yeah, I like him a lot. A chunk of gold comes in.

We saw the connections get very sad at the draw when he drew 19.

Jeff Bloodberry rides here for Ethan.

What is the local guy? We like Ethan around here for

sure. This horse qualified essentially

by running second and a bunch of stuff.

Can he hit the board here? If he gets moved up in the

field, I think every single time he's just been a little bit too

far back. As long as he does that, there's

a chance if there's an upset it could be chunk of gold just by

about this much. It really does need the right

trip though. Like it's asking a lot to break

from out there and what we've seen from him, I think it's

going to be an uphill battle. A horse that I think is going to

have an unbelievable uphill battle is oh, and almighty, he

breaks from the 20. Do you does he finish the race?

He. Finishes the.

Race. All right, let's go all with

Almighty. He finishes the race.

It's just not. Going to be there is he on the

unofficial Derby Cup that they sell at Currents Corner with all

the last place finishes on it? When we're talking about him,

you're. Just really kicking the man

while he's. I don't want sound right now.

I saw that they have nice hats and stuff though.

They're fine. The old almighty people don't

need me I. Do yeah it's going to be it's

going to be tougher Owen Almighty to make any kind of

headway here in this race and it's just the 20 spot is.

Tough shout out to Brian Lynch, who months ago said this horse

needs to go in the path a mile. They're like, no, we're not

going to do that. OK, OK.

On the also eligible list by ASA.

I'm a little tired of hearing about this horse.

What do you think? I mean, are you?

It's just everyone tells me, I'll bring you this.

We just want to make friends. What are we doing?

What are we doing? Which?

Is why I've kept my mouth shut about the horse all week around

you and you're asking me now. So when it comes to it, I think,

well, I think again, I kind of agree with you a little bit.

He's coming over from California.

I would need to see more to be really convinced.

That's no, I mean it makes me mad because I think I'm going to

close this horse and I think he's going to get in OK.

We always assume we don't who the Derby field is.

We simply don't. You go ahead and move us to the

next slide and I will do that same thing here.

You get to see our Derby pics here.

Of course, if you are here in person at Blind Squirrel

Restaurant, make sure that you check out our friends here.

If you happen to be coming to town here, broad screen there.

There we go and look. A lot earlier Luxor cafes I had

in second, not in 3rd as I. Mentioned yeah, go ahead go

through your pics. They're all ones that you were

very kind to point out who you were getting to at the end.

I did not follow suit with you, but you have bird square on top

here. It's one of the one great value.

Yeah, exactly. We've seen this horse just

overcome a lot of messy, messy goings.

I think that's again, I am a very much a trip girl, so I

think that kind of says everything within itself here.

Do you want me to keep going? Yes, please.

OK. Luxor Cafe, we mentioned the

connections, just really do think he's a freak of a horse.

And I think Marrera taking off everything in Japan where the

purses are what they are, to come over and ride in Kentucky,

that says a lot to me. Sovereignty.

We mentioned, of course, Bill not this is a horse that's just

been kind of turning it up and cranking up that turn of foot

every single race that we'd get. And then of course, journalism.

I cannot believe I have this horse that far underneath.

But at the same time, I'm just looking to beat the favorite

potentially with the way I have my mix set up here.

I have full faith here in journalism.

Again, look, I have full faith in Burnham Square just as much

as I have in journalism. But again, I'm going from the

season a better price than BI think he's just going to be.

He's way more. There you go, her top 4 here.

All right, so one of my the narratives I've heard this week,

I'm getting this off my chest on this show because I can't take

it anymore. I've had it here all week.

Oh, Louis, horses don't get the lead anymore in the Kentucky

Derby. We get horses from off the pace.

That's what we do now. That has been true the last

three years. Guess who wasn't here in the

last three years the same as Bob Baffert.

Guess what Bob Baffert's horses do?

They get the lead and they keep the lead.

I think Rodriguez is the best of the front runners in this case.

You ascribe it all to the final fractions theory.

This horse is not only fast the front, he is incredibly fast and

the last 3/8 of a mile will easily get the 10 furlongs in

this race. And we're betting against Bob

Baffert. Really, people?

You're giving me double digit odds on a horse that's going to

get the kind of trip he wants? Mike Smith, who's already won

this thing twice, I got to sit back and not doing that.

Rodriguez, my top pick here, I have sovereignty second.

I think he's the most talented horse in this race.

He's going to have to pass a ton of horses for.

That's the only reason I leave him there in my handicap in

Cali. One of my favorite things to do

with the Derby is to pick the best of each case style.

You talk about trip, the best of those trip styles to be

Rodriguez, the best horse on the front in this race, Sovereignty,

the best gate closer in this race, Journalism, easily the

best stalker in this race. He's going to try to be

stalking, mid pack, etcetera. I have him third for the same

reason you have him 4th is. I'm just trying to find value

here. He is the best horse in this

race. It's OK to say out loud, but

what if he ends up 10th and he's got to pass nine horses?

That is four more than he had to pass in the San Anita Durham.

And that was the whole field. I, I do wonder if there couldn't

be some kind of trip trouble at some point with him and have to

deal with it. And I'm going to be very clear

about this. This is not scientific.

This is not on paper. Luxor Cafe is the best of the

Japanese breads. And I heard the Japanese base, I

should say, excuse me, and I just assume they're going to win

a Derby at some point because their program I have them in my

topics. Very unscientific.

That was a great time for Derby questions or anything else.

Or if there's a horse that we talked about that you had a

different question about that would be that time.

Callie Francois, Lou We were beau hanging out with you at

Blind Score restaurant here in the East End of.

Louisville there we have. No questions at all.

OK, we got a Steve question. I can handle Steve questions.

All right, so Oaks Derby double Oaks Derby double trying to keep

the connections the same. OK who does that?

Who's most likely and why is it 10 with Roderick?

OK yeah, we did have to hear another Bobby Flay reference

that he bred 10 so he's very excited that that one's going to

be in here. Look at look at you look at you

doing these things. I actually think the most likely

back-to-back would be for good Dolphin good shared.

I think that's the most likely connected day-to-day.

If I win Oaks Derby double, that's what I would.

Yeah. Sir, The Jackie on Buffer Cafe?

Yep. Is he ever ridden?

OK, Good question. I don't think he needs to

because he's one of the best in the world.

So you talk and you talk about the races that he, it was an

excellent question. Thank you.

I think you talk the fields that they ride over in Japan is very

the dynamic is very similar to what we see in the Derby, except

we just have a a a bit more horses.

I'm not concerned at all. I 0 concerns in this job.

Listen, he's got a long flight. He's going to be spending that

entire time watching Derbys after Derbys after Derbys.

He studies, he knows his stuff. He's one of the best in the

world for a reason. Another thing that's interesting

with the Japanese based horses that are here is they're the

ones who come closest to the rail during workouts because

they're not bothered by crowds. There's crowds.

The Japanese races, man, it's busy there, right?

And so these horses come over, you know, but like Admire

Daytona, it's a little, I was surprised not to see Christophe

Lemaire, for example, who's going to be on the other on

Admire Daytona. Plenty of experience in North

America. Joao Marrero, that's they call

him the Magic Man. Yeah.

We're talking Hong Kong, we're talking Japan, we're talking

serious circuits. He's going to be fine.

In fact, he's going to be riding a champion race, I think in

South America the day and he gets on a plane immediately

after the Derby and he goes off to ride another, you know,

trillion dollar race. So there's there's a reason he's

coming to the Derby. That's interesting that we're

committed because that the past two mornings at 7:30.

Yeah. And we see that with population,

Yes, right. Yeah, yeah.

And you, you pointed out for those watching on the stream

that the Japanese horses seem to be on the the track.

The latest. I think it's Neo Efos actually,

but it's just because he comes out so late.

But the, but the thing about the Japanese horses, they are more

likely on the training side to let their horses do 2 miles to 3

miles on a Wednesday just to do it, just to get out of the barn

and and stretch their legs, really get out there.

The trainees seem to really like it as well.

It's a very different tack. But hey, TO password finished

fifth. We had, we almost had a Japanese

winner last year with Forever Young.

So it's obviously working. And so that tack has been

really, really positive, Sir. The pace on the front, how fast

is the pace on the front going to be in US specifically?

Are they going to dial it back? Yeah, the answer is no.

No, There's way too many speed horses in this one for this

particular Derby. The other part of this is the

human factor. We all think that these these

high level jocks can control their emotions and everything

else. In front of 150,000 people and a

giant field, $5 billion. Somebody's going to go and other

horses that want to go are going to go with them.

I think the pace, let's do this over on it for the half mile.

I'll set it at 47 flat. I was going to, I was going to

go a little bit quicker, but I think for.

I-47 flat happens by the way, Rodriguez with.

Yeah, I'll say. I think it's going to be like 46

and I. Think that's where I was.

That's very fast, by the way. Last year was in the 46, might

have been 45 two years ago. That was bracking.

Him out. So I guess that is a dial back

from what you've been talking about.

But I think if it's 47 or yeah, very, very fast, that's exactly

right. And so that's where a

sovereignty would really benefit, right?

If it's it's just breakneck out front, a horse like Sovereignty

or Flying Mohawk are those kinds of horses that are going to be

coming super late. Yeah, absolutely.

Sets up for a rich type of possibility.

And look, E Avenue is the fastest, but I mean, American

Promise doesn't have an option. He's got to go.

Citizen Bulls gotta go. I think Rodriguez is more

capable of slightly sitting off than some of those other horses.

But there's four or five that just that's what they can do.

That's the only thing they know. And so, yeah, it's it's going to

be fast upfront for sure. All right, we're going to wrap

it up. Any other questions you have,

please come see us outside. Want to thank again our friends

at First Bet for hanging out with us here on the

seminar1stbet.com $250 bonus right now.

Go check them out at First Bet first bet.com.

Use our promo code ESPN 250 when you get signed up there.

All the terms and conditions on the site there as well.

Callie, congratulations, you're done with your first seminar.

We get to do this in two weeks at Jimmy Seafood.

So we'll do that Friday night before the previous.

If you happen to be at Charm City there at Baltzpore, come

find us at Jimmy Seafood. We'll be on the the upstairs

level just like we are here at Blind Store Restaurant.

Want to thank them as well. Everyone are out here for having

us here and of course our friends at Blood Horse for

having us on the stream is for Callie.

I'm Louis. We're back at it the next four

days on radio as well. 11:50 Wednesday, Thursday here on

esp@louisvilleespngoogle.com for all of our coverage starts at 7.

A guy named Drew interviews a lot of important people the next

two days as well. From 7:00 to 10:00.

Make sure you're tuned in for that. 12:50 on Friday, 11:00 to

1:00 on Saturday, of course, on Derby Day.

Catch us for all of them. Callie, thank you so much and

thank you to all of you for being here tonight.

We really do appreciate.