KY Racing Spotlight | Derby 151 Week

A special edition of the KY Racing Spotlight!

Louie is live at Churchill Downs on Oaks Day for a weekend preview.

This episode presented by the KY HBPA – check them out at KYHPBA.com.

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Full Transcript

All right, we'll command a special oak stay trackside

edition of the Kentucky racing Spotlight with Louis Rebo.

I'm Louis Rebo, really, really glad you decided to hang out

with us this week. A special edition of the program

in podcast only. So glad you were able to find

it. So glad you decided to hang out

with us. We're presented as we always are

by the Kentucky HBPA, KYHBP, a.com.

Appreciate them very much, their support of this program and

their support frankly, of all, all of the great folks all

around the Commonwealth, whether it be trainers, owners, grooms,

everyone on the backside that works here at Churchill and

Keeneland and Ellis, Kentucky Downs and of course up at

Turfway Park. We really appreciate their

support. Go check them out right now.

KYHBP a.com for the website over there.

We're presented in a special way today by our new friends over at

DK Horse. Go over right now and check out

their Derby contest. We'll get into that in just a

minute, but I wanted to share some of my observations coming

into this Friday ahead of Kentucky Derby day tomorrow and

certainly ahead of the entire card tomorrow.

Today, you know, I just wanted to share some happiness.

I tried to do that on the show, celebrate the things that are

good about the sport. And it's certainly today in

races six and seven, we're getting a big dose of that and

that's with the Alley Sheba and the La Troyenne races

back-to-back here. And we see in the Alley Sheba,

we see a lot to won the Santa Anita handicapped by a billion

lengths. We see the return of fierceness

and that's really what I wanted to land on in this case is we

get most wanted, we get fierceness, we get Hall of Fame

and we get locked to this race. All of them coming back as 4

year olds. We'll see Mind Frame on the card

this weekend as well. It's just this, you know, we've

already seen Sierra Leone run this year.

Mystic Dan came back off of a three-year old campaign as well.

We're just getting to see these horses again and I wanted to

stop and sort of celebrate that moment.

The fact that we have a fierceness back here on the

undercard on the Oaks, but in front of 100,000 plus people

here at Churchill Downs, this is what it's all about.

They're actually about to take the track here in that race and

I could not be more excited to watch them do exactly that in

the next race. You get Torpedo Anna.

And what else can be said about Kentucky native Canadian Peak

that hasn't been said on this show and on every other show

that talks it all about horse racing?

This horse, of course, wins on debut at Keeneland, comes back

immediately, wins against winners only.

Loss last year in that Goldenrod only, excuse me, as a 2 year

old, and her only loss last year, of course, against the

boys in the traverse, against the aforementioned fierceness.

She frankly almost got up to win that thing.

And she'll go today in the alley, excuse me, in the Latroy

yen. And that's a nice field,

including two great one winners on the Chad Brownbard in Raging

Sea and randomized. Randomized of course, the winner

of last year's Ogden Phipps and raging see that second place

finish in the Breeders Cup disk cap coming out of the bell bane

win and a win in the personal Ensign at Saratoga and at

Aqueduct in consecutive order there.

So it's just a a spectacular day of racing here on Oaks day.

Of course we get a chance for seven for seven for good cheer

in the Oaks. Luis Saez aboard Brad Cox trains

in that one. She comes in as the prohibitive

favorite and a worthy prohibitive favorite as well.

Some other horses getting a lot of play in that one.

I love the local connection with Louisville based Whit Beckman.

Odd, simply joking. The two horse here, I think

she's gonna have her way on the front man.

And I think that Flora Giroux is gonna have a real opportunity.

One of the best front running jockeys in the country.

I think he's gonna have a great shot with her.

If she gets the kind of trip that I think she can.

They're gonna be in a really, really great spot by the time we

make the final turn here at Churchill Downs.

I'm also looking ahead to the races tomorrow.

And, you know, something I wanted to pause to talk about as

well was that we had the agriculture commissioner on

today and there are so many things that go into our great

sport that I think it's easy for us to take for granted.

He's a fifth graderation farmer. He talks about raising cows.

He talks about flowers and pumpkins and all the different

things that he has to raise. But he also talked about

Kentucky for its size, being in the top ten in hate production

to the country exactly because of the thoroughbred industry

here and how the the state is really a leader in quality hate

production. And you know, we talked with

Eric Camelback, the CEO of the National HPABPA earlier in the

week. And I'm always reminded when we

sit down with him on Derby week of the walled city that is

Churchill Downs and all of the people who have their

livelihoods because of these great horses.

And certainly that's on full display as all of us meander

through the barns and there's hundreds of us back there that

aren't usually back there. Those folks that get up early,

early in the morning to hang out with those equine athletes that

we love so, so much, didn't want to lose sight of that.

But just the the way forward in this state, the way forward in

Kentucky as far as racing, as far as what we're doing with our

programs is just so, so positive.

And I love that there seems to be an increase in camaraderie

amongst the tracks, an increasing desire for the tracks

to work together. Small example, but before we go

to Kentucky Downs, Ellis Park, which is owned by Churchill

Downs, runs Kentucky Downs preview day.

They don't have to do that. They don't.

They don't have to do that. Those two tracks did not have to

combine on that kind of effort in any kind of way, but they

went ahead and did it. And I think that's commendable.

And I think it's something that we should say that we're very,

very happy about because frankly, it's one of those

things that makes the sport move forward for sure.

Those preview days are always a great time and I hope that

they'll continue between Ellis and Kentucky Downs.

And frankly, I don't know, those are a way to do a Kentucky Downs

Keeneland preview. I, I don't know, 'cause they're

doing a lot of Breeders' Cup stuff that way.

But hey, wouldn't it be fun if we could keep some of those

races in town as well? I'm not sure that that's it, you

know, a very easy sitting in my chair to ask for those kinds of

things. But I would say it might be

something that's worth looking into long term in the state as

well. I mentioned the Kentucky HPA

again, go over there, check out all the great things going on

with them. But I also mentioned DraftKings.

And before I get into the Derby, I gotta say, Derby week is here.

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Obviously I've been talking about Rodriguez all week and he

went ahead and got scratched out of the race yesterday.

Tough day for me, man. I would look at like a

sovereignty if you were looking for one of the more favorites to

come in in that spot. But maybe if you wanted somebody

off the board, why would we not look perhaps up the board at

maybe a final Gamut comes out of a really, really nice win in the

Jet Ruby Stakes. But man, who knows?

If you want to get a bigger piece of that pool, use a long

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dkhorse.com/bet/offers/details. And as we get into that Derby

and as we get into that card on Derby day, we always kind of

wonder what's going to be on the undercard, what it is it that

we're going to see underneath. And the good news is we're going

to see some awesome races, whether it's the Pat Day Mile

this year with a bunch of really great 3 year olds in it.

Obviously, we watched Seize the Gray come out of the Jeff Ruby

Stakes here in the state of Kentucky, win that Bad Day mile

before winning both the Grade 1 Preakness and Pennsylvania

Derby. Down the line.

We see some horses coming back. As I mentioned on Oaks Day,

we're going to have fierceness. We're going to have locked.

We're going to have Torpedo Anna on that undercard.

We also get a race like the Derby City Distaff where we're

going to get a Scilla and a Copion, a Mystic Lake, a Volvo

Ways and Means and Emory, a Positano Sunset, perhaps these

kinds of quality horses. We just see this over and over

on Derby weekend, just the very best of our sport coming

together to do that. Of course we'll also have that

American turf, one of the very best 3 year old turf races all

year, but right before it in Race 8 on Derby Day, that that

Churchill Downs at 7 furlong. In between that route race and

Sprint thing that we have here drew a field that includes

Vanishing Bucumdano, Extra Niejo, Mind Frame, Nisos and

Mulliken. And I kind of wanted to stop and

make this the other race on the Derby card that we talked about

because we get that return of Naisos, right?

And it's amazing on Kentucky Derby Day that we get a horse

that so many people assumed would be one of the absolute

stalwarts in the Kentucky Derby last year.

And of course, that's Naisos after that performance in the

Bob Lewis talk about the Robert B Lewis, the grade three out

there going a mile. He'd come out of the Bob hoping

to seven for a long effort and absolutely dominated Stronghold,

who went on to win the Santa Anita Derby in that spot.

But he came back in that Robert B Lewis and dominated a field

that included Wind Me Up and Scatified.

And now it's over a year off and he's back straight into grade

one company. It's an incredible thing.

But we also see, of course, that he's trained by Bob Bafford, who

has horses scattered throughout the card here today on Oaks Day

and tomorrow on Derby Day. I've been very clear on this

show and on others that while I understood what was going on

with with Churchill Downs, with the lawsuits and different

things, I just as somebody who observes a sport and someone who

enjoys it very much, I just want the best horses in the starting

gate. And certainly I want everyone to

try to play by the same rules as much as they possibly can.

So it's nice to see Bob Baffert back here and it's nice to see

that the welcome has been what it has been.

Frankly, if Niceless wins a big race and wins here, I'll be

totally fine with it. I think it's absolutely within

his ability. Bullock and just to his outside

does come out of a very good effort against lock in the Cigar

Mile. Last off off the layoff here has

been training in keenly coming in.

You do wonder about a book of Dano in this spot, don't you?

3 for five lifetime at the distance has never missed the

board. 8 to 1 on the morning line.

Paco Lopez keeps them out. He was aboard him for the

handicap that he won at Colonial last out.

Can he make a step forward, though, from that effort?

He's going to have to in this company now.

He is, you know, if you want to say it, second in the form cycle

here. He's about six weeks since his

last race, that Virginia Derby, essentially six weeks out to the

Kentucky Derby. But my colleague on the show

this week, Kelly Francois, has him on top, is very interested

in what he'll get done in the Churchill Downs.

I would a different direction. I do think Mind Frame is the

best horse in this race. He comes out of that Gulfstream

Park Mile, doesn't have to go as long here, but he's going to

have to make his move a little bit more quickly than he did

last out. I read Ortiz Junior, of course,

keeps them out here. He's been aboard him for all

five of his runs. Never finished worse than

second. And by the way, both of those

seconds were in grade. Once in the Belmont and in the

Haskell, they went back to a shorter distance with him here.

Seems to be a good fit for him going forward.

So I will lean on mine frame in that part of the sequence as

well. It is cool as well to see a

horse like a hoist, the gold that we've seen out West and

then certainly out east as well, a horse that we've known winning

the Cigar Mile in the mud there in 2023 goes very well.

Last out in the Commonwealth behind extra on the hill, last

out at at Keeneland. Could Brian Hernandez junior

pull a special here? Dallas Stewart, of course.

Hey, longest, longest shot of the ever.

So with the Kentucky Oaks, is lemon, is lemon dropped?

Why could it not be? Why could it not be a Dallas

Stewart dropping in here to win on Oaks day with, excuse me, on

Derby day with hoisted gold in the Churchill Downs?

Would be real fun to see him do that.

It's lemons forever. I said lemon drop.

I was thinking lemon drop kid. But of course it's lemons

forever that has the longest on to win in the history of that

race. But let's get into the Turf

Classic. It's right before the Derby.

And this is an interesting one as well.

And the real question we had on the show this week talking about

this and certainly we'll get into it tomorrow on our coverage

on ESPN Louisville is what are we trusting?

Which form are we trusting? Is it international form?

Is it Kentucky, you know races in Kentucky form, is it West

Coast form, etcetera. But that Maker's Mark mile in

April, how much is that race won by Carl Spackler?

Of course going to play into this one.

Integration finished a good second was coming at the end,

but was never going to catch Carl Spackler in that spot.

But we get stuff coming out like the Saint Louis Ray Gold,

Phoenix. What about redistricting coming

out of the Muniz at the Fairgrounds for Chad Brown?

What about I'd rather be blessed coming out of the Elkhorn at a

much longer distance than the mile in an eighth?

Going a mile and 1/2 at the Elkhorn is that one that can get

back to form as well. We see Running B over and over,

just the kinds of horses that we would absolutely want to feature

in these races. I landed on Spirit of Saint

Louis coming out of that Beauties Classic, finished

fourth in that race. Manny Franco picks up the mound

here for Chad Brown. I did.

That's partly because the horse did win in the Pegasus World Cup

Turf Invitational earlier in the year at the end of January.

Gulfstream Park. I think that one could get back

to that form. We saw it in the Mohawk at

Aqueducts prior to that in October.

A little bit of time off there, a little bit of time off here as

well, which I really love. Chad Brown bringing this one in

in this spot doesn't get Lasix here.

And actually I think that's better for the horse.

I think that we found out last time not to do that.

And what about brilliant birdie? What about brilliant birdie

coming in? You're going to get a huge price

on this horse. We watched Cherie Devoe win a

turf stake here yesterday at Churchill Downs.

Why can this one not jump up in that spot?

It'd be part of that pace scenario as well.

Again, this is a Kentucky Racing Spotlight with Louis Robot were

presented today by the Kentucky HBPA and our friends said DK

horse again, get over to DK Horse.

Get your $5 win bet in right now for a piece of that $1 million

prize pool. Kentucky Derby is race 12

tomorrow and look, an unfortunate number of scratches

in this field to this point. We lose what was my top pick

coming in in Rodriguez? Very disappointing for me.

I thought that horse, by the way, I'll make the case one more

time just because I made it so many times earlier in the week.

Ran the best Wood Memorial race since Frosten and that was in

2015. And if I I'm really of the

opinion that if Frosten doesn't run against American Pharaoh

that year, we talk about Frosten as a very, very different horse

historically. It's very difficult when you run

Ask Sham how it feels to run in a Triple Crown year or an alley

door, whatever. It's just so, so different.

It's so difficult to be one of those horses.

You're not, you're not forgotten, but certainly you're

not at the forefront of many of those historical conversations.

So I wonder with a Frosted and leading into a Rodriguez, the

son of Authentic, by the way. And I watched Authentic win that

2020 Derby with the exact same style that Rodriguez runs with.

And while it's very disappointing to have him out

here, the foot bruise was the stated reason for the Baffert

camp. I'm sure we'll see him in the

Preakness and I will expect him to be amongst the favorites and

that race. The running sound makes a lot of

sense in Baltimore. One of the other horses in this

race that is in bowl breaking from the inside.

It'll be Baffert's only chance here.

Martine Garcia back in the Derby after about a decade out of it.

This is a horse with a disappointing show in the Santa

Anita Derby. We talked on my other podcast,

the Horse Racing Happy Hour with Bobby Flay as part of our annual

Kentucky Derby Draft, and he said give Citizen Bowl a chance.

And essentially he said, look, it's Bob Baffert at the end of

the day. And he said, I'm dating myself.

But Thunder Gulps drew in a clunker right before the Derby

and came back and won that thing anyway.

Why not trust the Citizen Bowl in this spot to do exactly that?

I'm a little skeptical, especially with the one hole.

It's not a great spot, but hey, it's Bob Baffert.

If that gets done, none of us would be stunned.

Neil Echoes comes in off a third place finish in the Florida

Derby. He'll break from the 2 grand

third in the Fountain of Youth as well.

Best win probably came in an allowance level company

maintenance, maybe in a maiden special way.

Both of those over one turn. I think the distance is going to

be the most difficult part here. Luis Saez to pick up them out,

which I like, but I think this horse is going to try to go and

I think he's just not going to have enough by the time we get

to that 10 for long marker final game.

It is a really, really interesting one.

A lot of local connections here. Of course, horses only ever run

in the state of Kentucky and only ever on turf and synthetic.

For local guy Brad Cox, we have him on the show quite a bit.

And of course for Luan Machado won his last two, one of them as

a mile over the Tepita surface, innovating special weight and

then most recently winning the 100 point Jeff Ruby Stakes.

Frankly, with one of the more impressive gallop outs and all

the things, the distance ain't it for him.

I do wonder with him if he's fast enough.

Everything fell apart for him, everything set up perfectly for

him in the Jeff Ruby Stakes. But I do want to say and give

him credit for something, he wasn't dead last in that race

and pass everybody to get it done.

And in the Derby, sometimes you got to make that trip.

Sometimes in the Derby you have to pass a ton of horses.

He had to pass 11 in that field, more than any other horse in

this field has passed in their careers.

So if you want a horse to hit the board and you want one

that's just a hanger, it might be Juddmott's final Gamut, a son

of Not This Time. American Promise is in the five.

We just talked with Steve Kornacki here on ESP at

Louisville. He spent some time with Dewayne

Lucas this week. And then he said Lucas, of

course, optimistic about American Promise coming out of

that Virginia Derby. The biggest horse certainly in

the field doesn't look like his dad, but he's sized like his

dad, his sire Justify here. I'll be interested coming off

the one turn mile in an eighth if he's good enough to get the

two turns and get the 10 furlongs as well.

I think he got a pretty soft set up there in Virginia.

But hey, credit to him. He ran them off their feet

there. Render judgement who's in this

field was 7 3/4 lengths behind him.

You know, he's running other spots as well.

Like there is a star in the Southwest with less success.

Man, are we doubting the coach? Are we doubting Dwayne Lucas?

Not this guy admirer. Daytona comes in as the first of

the Japanese runners. He'll be alongside his Japanese

quarantine barn stablemate in Luxor Cafe and he comes out of

that UAE Derby, of course. And we've yet to have a UAE

Derby horse win the Kentucky Derby.

But I think it's time for us to stop throwing it out as far as

importance because of the of the performance last year of Forever

Young. I think, right, it's time for us

to move past the Meddlescins of the world and whatever else we

associate with the UAE Derby because of the excellent

performance of Forever Young. And there's a second part to

that that I want to be very clear about.

I think the Japanese program, especially for three-year old

dirt horses is just incredible and they are doing just a

spectacular job with their runners.

Because of that, I expect the Japanese to win a Derby in the

next couple of years. The other part of it is the UAE

Derby is better for it is better for their inclusion.

And so coming out of a race at at Tokyo in the Hyacinth, they

bring admirer Daytona over to the UAE Derby.

And he goes ahead and wins that thing under Christophe Lemaire,

who will be in town for this one.

Luxor Cafe, The other Japanese base horse in here, Joao Marrero

in the Magic man to ride him, a son of American Pharaoh, in this

case, out of the Noriyuki barn. And I'm going to be including

Luxor Cafe and all of my tickets.

I think it's a matter of time for the Japanese before they win

one of these. And I think Luxor Cafe's late

kick in the Fukurayu is good enough for me to include him in

my tickets here. Again, a son of American

Pharaoh. We've seen this before. 3 for

three this year alone, two runs at Nakayama, one at Tokyo.

He dominated, dominated, admired Daytona in two of those races.

And so I would look for him to be the better of those.

And I expect to get double digit odds on him even with some of

the scratches. The obvious favorite and the

worthy favorite here is journalism.

Comes out of the San Anita Derby, won the San Felipe, the

Los Alfie Trinity before that. All of those, by the way, add up

to 15 horses. He was three of those.

So in three prep races coming into the Kentucky Derby, he ran

against 12 other horses. On Saturday, he's going to run

after run against 15 plus agony. That's a tough ask.

And I'm not at all sure that this is the kind of spot that is

going to be a cakewalk for him. I want to be very clear about

something, though, with him, a son of Perlin, the 10 furlongs,

obviously not a distance. Not an issue.

Excuse me. And if he does what he's done in

his last two races, he'll probably win.

He'll probably win. But if you were telling me you

were going to bet against him in an attempt to get value or, or

or shorten your tickets, whatever, I wouldn't totally

fight you on it. But I will say I don't think

it's a question. Journalism is the best in this

race. Burnham Square comes in and

something I never thought I would say is that the leading

points getter in the Kentucky Derby, Burnham Square is the

buzz horse this week. It's a strange thing to say for

sure, but Ian Wilkes trades the buzz horse this week.

We had Kenny Rice on the show today and he said I, I just feel

like there isn't buzz. There isn't a buzz horse.

I think it might be Burnham Square who won the Bluegrass,

obviously in a rallying side, was 11 legs off the leader in

East Ave. kind of a clunker in the Fountain of Youth.

I won't lie, I wasn't thrilled with that experience.

But I do think his run of the Holy Bowl is the most underrated

run of any of the Derby preps. And so look for, in this case,

more of a Holy Bowl kind of effort from Burnham Square,

where he's a little more tactical, makes a smart run late

in the game. I expect Burnham Square to be

part of the equation at the end. Flag Mohawk is in the 11.

Joe Ramos gets his first mount here. 2nd place finisher in the

Jeff Ruby Stakes. Before that, a winner over the

turf in an optional claimer at Fairgrounds.

Did break his maiden here on the turf at Churchill Downs as well.

Has never tried the dirt before Flag Mohawk to me.

Interesting story. I've appreciated Jason worse

efforts around horse racing recently.

Has been a real positive force throughout his time here.

I I just don't think this horse is fast enough.

Good experience for Joe Ramos. I'm so glad he's going to be

here tomorrow. But you know, for the wit,

Beckman seemed to have a Derby starter two years in a row with

Anna Marie and now Flying Mohawk and frankly, for Anna Marie to

come back and win the Isaac Murphy the other day, they're

doing a great job down there. He'll have two in the Oaks.

I'm very not worried about the Beckman program moving forward.

But Flying Mohawk, I think he's just not it in the Derby.

And here's the horse. I don't know what to do with

people now that Rodriguez is out, East Avenue comes in, he'll

be in the 12 hole here for Brendan Walsh and Manny Franco.

Manny's never been aboard this horse, but to me that's not

terribly important as he's just a need the lead type and he's

going to go. He's just going to go.

And I think we're wildly underrating his bluegrass and

what he did, setting the fractions, doing the work.

It wasn't a fast race at the end, but I think we're

underrating what he did early. If he improves off of that

effort, which I think he can, The last time he had a step up

in number was from his maiden win at Ellis to the Breeders

fraturity at Keeneland. He then ran in the Breeders Cup

Juvenile. If you remember that race, he

totally tripped in the gate, comes back in the Risen Star.

We talked with Michael Banahan on another podcast I do about

what happened in that race. Even the Godolphin folks don't

know, but he comes back and he runs the Bluegrass that he did,

and frankly he could have done in the Bluegrass what he did in

the Risen Star. I think what ends up happening

with him is he gets the lead. He's out there, he's hanging

with other horses that are also need the lead types.

He's actually better than those other need the lead types, but

he's overtaken at the end of the race.

But E Avenue ends up in the top five of the Derby this year.

Publisher is in the 13 for Steve Asmussen.

He's still a maiden. We saw him around second in the

Arkansas Derby, 4th in the Rebels, 7th in the Southwest.

He's slowly improving on that front, but this is a horse that

came out of a second place in America in a maiden race behind

American Promise, and he and Steve Asmussen chose to

immediately run him in the Southwest.

He's kept a mistakes company on the Derby trail ever since.

Another side of American Pharaoh in this field, a $600,000

purchase. I ran Ortiz in the mount.

Why not? Why not?

Well, history says why not? That's why not.

I'll let the maiden beat me in this year's Derby.

One that I've heard a lot less about that I thought it would,

is his tastic, a son of his law, of course. 2nd place finisher

here in 2020 in the Derby. This one comes out of Louisiana

Derby in a romping style. Love, love, love.

The distance seems to be one that you cannot give enough

distance. Won the Juvenile Mile at at

Kentucky Downs previously after breaking his maiden in a a race

there at Kentucky Downs as well just a few days earlier.

I think about 10 days earlier in the meet did run in the street

sense, finished second to a sovereignty, but did a lot more

of the work earlier. A reminder, the sovereignty test

Tastic and Sandman were 123 in the street sense here in

October. Not all of the very best horses

go to the Breeders Cup Juvenile. As far as looking forward to the

three-year old year test Tastic, I think you can get a piece here

man. He's got tapping on the damn

side. I am very interested in his run

late in this one. Render Judgement comes in off of

5th place. Finish in the Bluegrass was

second in the Virginia Derby and 8th in the Risen Star, his best

finish since his maiden breaking win here at Churchill over two

turns. It was probably that second

place finish in the Virginia Derby.

I got to talk with owner Brook owner Brook Smith right after

the draw. He's just happy to be in the

race. We've seen weirder things than a

horse like Render Judgement win this thing.

Certainly Rich Strike was a stranger than this.

He's the son of Blame All the Things.

I'll let him beat me in the spot.

Another horse that I'm going to let beat me, but my friend Danny

Brewer's really high on his Cold Battle.

Did win the Rebel, did win the Smarty Jones, and did win the

Springboard Mile ahead of Speed King as well.

I'm interested in this one as a son of Cold Front.

They bred it for 2 grand. I love these kinds of stories.

JP Vargas is going to keep them out here, which I love as well.

2 for three this year. What if he's actually what if

Bobby Flay's right? But the Thunder goal to this

race is actually Cold Battle. Melanie Briley story is

unbelievable. And so all of us would gladly

have this happen as the as the outcome of the race.

I don't see it. He's a very small horse.

I think it's going to get bumped around in the Derby and not like

it. But he's a gamer man and he's

made his way before. And if you won this thing, would

I be shocked? I'd be teetering on shock, but

I'd be really happy to. I'll play against him here, but

that's it's a reluctant play against Sandman's in the 17.

My colleague Sean Collins on Blood Horse Monday will tell you

no one wins out of the 17. I'm not taking that angle.

I just think he's a little overrated.

I think he's put it together a couple of times, but I think

he's just a little bit overrated.

I think he'll run really, really big in the Belmont.

I look for him to get a little bit of trip trouble tomorrow.

He more than he was 13 legs off in both the Rebel and the

Arkansas Derby before rallying to win those races.

To be fair to him, we might get this kind of a pace up front

again and he might just come flying from off of it.

But if that does happen, I'll lean on sovereignty in the 18 to

do just that. Manny Franco did have the mount

last time because of the injury to junior Alvarado.

Alvarado gets back in the mount after the winds in both the

street sense and the fountain of youth.

Sovereignty has one here. Obviously in that street sense

son events and mischief Godolphin all the things I

sovereignty I've got in my top three is my number two overall.

So he's my, oh man, I might have to make him my number one

overall pick in this race because I do trust him that

much. Chuck of Gold and by the way,

that would be good. Dolphin's first win in the

Derby. And I know for them something

that they have wanted for a very, very long time in their

operation. Chuck of Gold comes into the 19.

Steve Kornacki just told me he's really interested in him with

the Ethan W three straight 2nd place finishes.

Never been worse than second by the way.

In fourth. Four career runs, two of them at

Turfway Park, two of them at the fairgrounds.

I was interested because they did pull this horse off the

fair, off the the Jeff Ruby Stakes path.

I was very concerned about that. But this son of Preservation is

has been just fine. They paid $2500 for this horse.

Good luck to those connections. Oh, and Almighty will break from

the 20. Javier Castellano in that spot.

Brian Lisch was very clear early on around the time of the Pasco

that this was a Pat Day mile horse.

Very clear. Flying Dutchman wanted to be in

the Derby, so he is here as well.

Baeza draws in the 21. An interesting one if I guess if

there's an online buzz horse, that's Baeza coming out of that

second place finish in the Santa Anita Derby.

Of course, a win in a maiden special before that.

I will say this, I I think Baez is good.

He reminds me a lot of Mandarin Hero a couple of years ago.

So if you like Mandarin Hero a couple years ago, no reason not

to like Baeza in this spot. And I'll be honest, Blavi and

Pratt choosing to ride this horse makes me think that he

knows something I don't know. I'm going to go ahead and

include him in my my bets, my pick threes, whatever, just to

make sure that I am covered with that.

Well, this has been another edition of the Kentucky Racing

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They're coming down the stretch here.

Fierceness is going to get it done on return ahead of Most

Wanted. Blocked is going to finish off

the track today, but Fiercest back at it.

What a great day here at Churchill.

Happy to be to all of you. This is Ben, the Kentucky

Racing.

Horse Racing Happy Hour