Peter Pan Stakes 2025 | Matthew DeSantis

All right, welcome back in apologies for the tech issues

there. Louisville Matthew DeSantis

hanging out with you ahead of Peter Pan Saturday at Aqueduct

race course saying the purses are a little better.

That's that's what BAQ means. That's that's three letters,

meaning purses are a little bit better this Matthew to say this.

Of course we're not. That's joins us ahead of that.

We're wrapping up our conversation about not heading

to the Preakness, but the Preakness itself.

Matthew, I think it's going to have a really fascinating field

and 1:00 that's going to be fun to cap.

Yeah, I think so too. I mean especially with the news

that Bob Baffert's sending goal oriented as well in addition to

Rodriguez journalism still a possibility.

And then you have a horse like River Thames, you have some

really interesting runners, clever again for Steve Asmussen

certainly would add some additional speed in this race.

So I think there's a a few different runners who are really

interesting and I think it's always important to remember

it's not the tight turns of Pimlico.

We all know that's a myth, but Pimlico does play as a better

track to speed, which is why I was always skeptical about

Sovereignty's chances in the Pimlico.

I always thought the Preakness was going to be his toughest

test. I thought he set up very well at

Saratoga, obviously, but I just thought coming from all the way

in the back could be a little bit challenging for him.

So this is a race where journalism is going to be able

to get kind of first run at a lot of those frontrunners like a

Rodriguez, like a goal oriented, like a clever again, so should

set up for him, but really going to be a fun race.

Top three finishers in the Peter Pan get a spot in the Belmont,

only the top finisher in the Federico Tessio.

If you had to forecast for it, how many starters do you think

we get out of this Peter Pan in the Belmont?

How many actually make the trip to Saratoga?

I, I would think 2, I, I think, I think there's a good chance we

would end up getting two of them coming out of this.

It depends on how they run, obviously, if it's a close, if

it's like, you know, two horses or, you know, a half the length

from each other sort of a thing. And, you know, you could make an

argument, hey, that one horse ran pretty well.

And, you know, and especially if one was coming late and you go,

I was going to like the mile and a quarter maybe a little bit

more. So I think we could end up with

two because it's important to remember when you look at this

field, a lot of them had been on, or several of the top

contenders were on the Derby trails.

So these were horses that had four connections, that had

Triple Crown aspirations. And this is their way of getting

into it. So it's not as if it's only one

horse that kind of had those types of aspirations.

You know, a couple years ago you had like what Bishops Bay and

Archangelo and so, you know, Bishop's Bay was kind of

obvious, probably not a mile and a quarter type of a horse or a

mile and a half. And, you know, last year you had

antiquarian obviously coming out of this race, but really not a

lot else after that. So I, I think this year, because

you have Brown and Pletcher with a few different entries, I, I

think there's a good chance you get too, especially with Rick

Dutrow's horse as well. We will go now to that late pick

5 starts with the De Rude. It's a Grade 3.

It's a 6 furlong Sprint here for four and up $175,000 is the

prize we are running for. So obviously starting on the

opposite side of the track from the grandstand there at Aqueduct

there. Matthew, where did you land in

this one? I thought of kind of frankly,

the top two or three are pretty balanced in this field.

Yeah, it's going to be interesting.

And the neighborhood I mean yeah, with going 6 furlongs and

yeah I'd listen I'd like to try to beat the chalk which is the

the number three. What you're talking about who is

6 to 5 on the morning line for trainer Wesley Ward with Irad

up. This one's stepping up against

open company for the first time. And so I, I, yeah, again, I'm a

little skeptical of just backing that one at such a short price.

But you look at this, some of the other horses and you know,

the certainly they could fit in this sort of a spot.

And I ultimately kind of wanted to take a little bit of a shot.

Maybe it's a minor shot, but I wanted to take a little bit of a

shot on a horse like Silver Slugger, who is just, I think

speed of the speed on the inside, 8 to 1 at your second

biggest price on the board. I understand, you know, the word

horse makes a lot of sense without rat up.

I I get it. But this one has at least been

facing open company, admittedly, maybe some easier competition,

but it's not as if what you're talking about has been facing

monsters. I mean, it's been facing $45,000

optional claimers, you know, at New York Breds and so OK, wanna

Villa's bringing a horse that's been facing, you know, $20,000

optional claimers that that's open company.

So I just speed of the speed could be pretty good.

The other thing to note is, and I'm not, you know, trying to

forecast a bias track in any way, but we're going to get a

lot of rain on Friday. Saturday is going to be nice,

but you're going to get a track that's drying out on Friday or

on Saturday. That is usually when you see a

potential track track bias emerge at Aqueduct, and it

usually favors speed. OK, All right.

What do you make of Full Moon Madness in this field here?

Manny Franco for Michelle Nevin did run in that that Carter last

out was essentially nowhere to be found behind Quincepur, Crazy

Mason, some other very, very good horses.

I don't see anyone of that quality in here.

Any chance we get back to that Tom Foole kind of race?

Because I I have the number one here.

Full Moon Madness on top. Makes a lot of sense.

And when I first looked at the race, that was also my number

one pick. My only concern is Silver

Slugger being right next to to him and whether or not he's just

better speed and can kind of and then then you wonder, well, does

he like sitting that kind of tracking trip?

And he can do it. He's demonstrated it, but I just

wonder what sort of trip. But with Manny aboard, you

figure he's going to be aggressive getting out of the

gate. So also would not shock me if he

gets to the front. Well, you know, come hell or

high water kind of. And so that's a horse that I

think is a really legitimate win contender.

And if you're trying to beat the favorite, he's absolutely

included on my ticket. Anarchist in here.

Joel Rosario gets the mount for Doug O'Neill.

Kind of a classic Doug O'Neill and at this point wins A6 for a

long dirt spread at Oaklawn after running down the hill in

Santa Anita. I can't think of anything more

Doug O'Neill than that. It comes in here.

Joel gets the mount here. We see that speed figure.

We've seen this horse at this distance in the high 90s and on

the buyer figure, but going to Aqueduct for the first time like

you mentioned, there's going to be some moisture in the track.

Is that a? Is it a toss because we don't

know how the horse or reactor? Is it in the include because we

might not know? Yeah, I think it's not a, it's

not a bad thing. I mean, the horses won over a

wet track before. So there's some wet track

experience you can go back to and look to and say, OK, the

source can handle the conditions and is 1 / a wet track and three

starts and it's actually never finished out of the money over a

wet track. I like Joelle on this type of a

horse. I think the, the question is

just does Joel get too cute? And that's always kind of the

issue with with Sprint sometimes is does he take back too much?

Because when Joel's aggressive and is up on the front end,

he's, I mean, maybe the best front end rider we have because

he's so strong and nobody's going to get by him down the

stretch. So I, I do like this move in

terms of bringing him here to Aqueduct.

The question with a horse like anarchist is just the

consistency because you're right.

Which one do we get? Which anarchist do we get?

Yeah. And then just what version of

this horse do you get? And especially trying a new

track, I think that's the biggest question mark.

But again, in such a short field, I, I can see a lot of

people building their tickets with what you're talking about

being a single. And so if you're going to single

somewhere else in this sequence, then use two or three of these

other horses to try to beat him and, and just omit him from your

ticket. And if you get through that

stretch, then you're kind of set up for the rest of the the

sequence. Race 8 is an optional claimer,

$75,000 is the claim price. It's a $90,000 purse here for

four or excuse me, for three-year olds and up,

essentially non 3:00-ish lifers or so.

We get a fair number of horses in here.

This is that interesting spot. They start kind of in the chute,

but not really for the mile out of 16th and Aqueduct, right?

Yeah, that's exactly right. Not quite in the, not quite.

Not halfway up or anything like that.

A couple of different horses in here that I think are really

interesting. Matthew, I'll go ahead and go

first here. I do think again, the one on the

inside makes a lot of sense for me here in activist investing.

I'm going with Chad and Irad at Aqueduct.

Breaking news, get the breaking news out of people.

And so I'm going to lean on that one.

Coming out of a race at Gulfstream Park last out under

Irad. I thought it was real, real good

in that one should be able to translate well here.

Keeps the Lasix which is the only time this horse has really,

really run. One row is with Lasix in the

last four runs. Was in that Virginia Derby last

year, just wasn't quite good enough, but this is second this

year in this form cycle. Couple months off makes a lot of

sense here so I'll land. Hate to be a little chalky here,

but I think the one on the inside will be just fine.

Yeah, the one certainly does look pretty difficult on the

inside, no two ways about it. And the connections that you

absolutely trust. And I think, you know, this time

of year, you always wonder, especially when you're looking

at turf races, you know, how horses fire off the bench having

not run maybe for a little while.

But Chad, so good off the bench. And this one at least got to

work. You know, got that race in in

February after that really long layoff, having not run since

2023. So the fact that that one ran so

well in a race which I thought was, you know, pretty solid down

in Gulfstream Park certainly gives I think a lot of

confidence. You know, I, I think Pletcher's

horse enlightened with Flavian Pratt up is also a little bit

interesting. A horse that you know, has been

facing good, not great competition has lost to a couple

of these. Actually last time out, although

it was breaking from a really far outside post and you know,

managed to get over to the rail at some point, but still was was

maybe not the greatest trip. And you look at that some of

those races 2-3 back, you know, they're certainly good enough

from a speed figure standpoint to get there.

And this one's at least in good current form.

And it's been working out really well for Pletcher leading up to

this one. So if you're going to take a

shot, I think against the one and lighten makes a little bit

of sense for Centennial Farms and Todd Pletcher.

I think bonus move the six to one here with John Velasquez is

interesting coming out of that same mile race under Paco Lopez.

Gets back to John Velasquez here who has won over this for

sprinting. It's the first time going a mile

last time. I wonder if we won't get a newer

horse here, a little more comfortable going the two turns,

doing the thing at a mile and a 16th at Aqueduct because

frankly, by track configuration, it's going to be a very similar

race. Just a, you know, 1/2 of a

prolong essentially longer for this one up at Aqueduct.

And so interested to see if John can get this, Johnny B can get

this horse back into it. This is going to be one that in

its best races has been very close to the front, but those

losses has been further back and so if this horse doesn't break

well, we'll be interesting to see.

But did break well last time out at Gulfstream Park.

Hopefully a little bit more. Yeah, Let me just go ahead,

please. Yeah, let me just add to that

one look at the fractions that one ran at Gulfstream Park,

which was 23 and 46 on the lead. Let me tell you something really

right now, breaking news. They're not going 23 and 46 at

Aqueduct. No, Johnny's going to get up

there and try to walk the dog. And that's what we do at New

York Turf Racing is we we do that better than anybody.

If we break 50 to the half, it's going to be a freaking miracle.

So you know, he's going to be able to really divvy out the

fractions the way he wants in this sort of race.

And there's nobody better at that than John Velasquez.

So you know, he gets out there that's a good pick up in terms

of the jockey switch to. And sometimes you're right, that

second race going two turns, you get a little bit more foundation

from that first effort. It's not that much of a

difference. And you're going to be able to

get a slower pace, reserve a little bit more for that final

kick. It's only the horses 10th race.

I mean they're still really figuring out what it's a son of

twirling candy to her daughter. It's not a tour.

OK, excuse me yeah it's for Colts and and so I ignores let

me find this mod for sure has been running at that 62 optional

claiming level at Gulfstream Park was previously at aqueduct

for a six prolong dirt Sprint has only been on the turf five

times so far in his career. The take the A train is the next

stakes that is race. It's it's Wraith 9 and and

Matthew, how often are you on the A train?

Pretty regularly actually, because I live in Rockaway Beach

and so I have to take the shuttle, which is technically

the S train. And so I take the shuttle to the

first stop across the Cross Bay Bridge and then I from there I

take the A train to work. And so I take the A train

regularly. There you go.

It's the outer turf course here, because you can't just have one

turf course and be a New York race, you understand me?

You have to have multiple, preferably have a name on them

so they can be as bougie as possible.

The wider turf course comes to mind, but as bougie as possible

on the turf there, the outer turf.

The outer turf course, that's and that's where we always run

the sprints. The sprints are almost always on

the outer turf. Course, Thank God.

Yeah. So you talk about tight birds.

Don't need that. Yeah.

It's not a turf. This is the A trade, $150,000 in

here. This is for three-year old

fillings. A fun field here as well,

Matthew, I think this might be a place where people take a shot.

What are you going to try to do here?

I agree I I think it's absolutely worth taking a shot

in this race and I'll be honest, I you know, there there's a few

that I think are worth taking a look at here and I really like

Mark Cassie source actually disco star.

I think that's one coming out of New York bread races.

But I think, you know, you look at that maiden breaking victory

coming from well off the pace with Dylan Davis aboard.

Dylan stays aboard and is of course riding well to start this

BAQ meet, winning 27% of his mounts.

Cassie, of course, has been having a lot of great turf

horses. We got nitrogen and Vixen in his

three-year old group. So he's got a ton of great turf

Phillies and I I just think this one's a little bit interesting.

Obviously stepped up and ran against open company that Ginger

Brew, but again, ran up against a horse like nitrogen in that

race, who's probably the top three-year old Philly right now.

And hey, by the way, got the running line failed to menace in

that race. So of course I have to use that

horse. But by the way.

Nitrogen a favorite on Derby, on the Derby card as well.

So yeah. Absolutely.

And so, and one of the things that I like about this horse is

there's a few that are coming back from a little bit of a

layoff and you look at a horse like Lovely Emma and and a

couple of others and even a horse like Hey, Birdie for

Cherie DeVos cross enter down at Churchill Downs.

So you know, there's a little uncertainty.

Is the horse going to run there? Is the horse going to run up

here? And so, you know, with a horse

like disco star, you know, those horses got in a race in in

April, kind of got knocked some rust off the bench in a New York

stallion series race in the dirt and ran pretty well.

Actually got to the lead after sitting last and, you know, just

faded a little bit late. But I like this one going 6th on

the turf a lot. I'm going to the also eligible

for my top because I assume a bunch.

We've got what, 3 cross listeds right right next to each other.

I'm guessing at least one of those ain't coming to New York.

OK, so my guess is warming's going to draw into this race for

grand motion coming off the bench, as you mentioned since

June of last year. But this is something he does

well and this is not an accidental placing for this

horse. And he's been frankly on fire at

stakes races lately, hitting at 17%.

And that's not a small number. He's involved in them all up and

down the East Coast. I know you know that very, very

well. Frankly, he's running in

Keeneland in these high level races as well.

Looking forward to seeing more of his runners at Churchill as

well. But I, I think this sets up this

daughter of Global Campaign. How fun is that to say the

daughter of Global Campaign? I think she's set up to be

really, really good here, has been working in Maryland, but

should get off of that to PETA just fine coming up north.

Just this kind of layoff. He hits at 22%.

It's a big sample size. I think she's primed.

I'm 11/3 in this race. So I agree with you about the

three, by the way. I think that that's where I'm

going to start leaning is trying to get a little bit of a price

in here just because I do think some of those like a lovely

Emma, you mentioned, I don't know that that horse is coming

to New York, right? Is Peter going to ship that

horse? I don't know.

And so because frankly, and I don't mean this, it's just the

reality, they're probably going to run for 127 at Churchill or

ship all the way to New York for 1:50.

I mean, honestly, the when we get to those sorts of numbers, I

think for some guys like if Peter heard, he's just like just

brought her in the allowance. I don't.

Care. Yeah, just why go through the

hassle of the shipping and it's the same thing with Cherie and

just yeah, I mean, why would you, why would you do that?

So yeah, I think it's one of those where I'll be interested

to see how scratches change the complexion of the race.

But those are two horses that we mentioned the both the 3:00 and

11:00 that are 8 to 1 in the morning line and should present.

And I think we'll maintain good value even with scratches.

So you listen. You know what a big fan I am of

Grand Motion. He and Manny Franco, when they

team up, are always dangerous. So definitely like that one on

the outside as well. And yeah, I usually stay away

from AES. But you're right, in this type

of race, you know, it's drawing in.

So yeah. And also Aqueduct, get it done.

Put eleven horses in a straight turf, it's OK.

Just do it. Just get, get.

It's OK. Just open the gate.

It's fine. It's 11.

It's not, it's not 15. It's 11.

We can get it done. The Ruffian will be Race 10.

It's a Grade 2 and this we're back to the Phillies and mayor.

This is for four and up. We're going to mile, of course,

one turn mile there at Aqueduct $200,000 in the the pot for this

one. And this is where I really I

think I'm going to try to be needlessly creative.

I'm just kidding. I'm going to be totally totally,

totally boring and single. My main squeeze.

I think in the late part here, really, really good in the

Madison last out has won three times at Aqueduct.

I don't know what else I need to see the horses won in the wet go

before and it's hit the board every single time.

She's done it. I'm going to lean really hard on

this daughter of Audible and Manny Franco carrying my ticket

late on Saturday. What say you about that that

take? Yeah, I listen.

It's a completely understandable and logical take to have.

And I will say this is also a race whose complexions changed a

little bit last night when the Serena song was drawn at

Monmouth because on paper it looked like, hey, we had 11 in

this race. That's not going to be the case

anymore because that field out on Sunday in Monmouth Park is a

pretty short field. You have power squeeze in there.

I know some people are going to want to avoid her, but she's far

from unbeatable in that race. And so you have a horse on the

inside, take the money, who's going to be cross centered there

Morning. Much is going to be cross

centered there. Catherine Wheels going to be

cross entered there. So you have quite a few horses

that are going to be there. Even Claire Barrett, who is is

going to be cross entered down at Gulfstream Park.

So there's still some things that could be changing there.

My main squeeze on paper, just A, a, the speed figures and B,

the class just looks pretty overwhelming in this spot.

And I don't think you get 7 to 2.

I mean, that's David Price. I don't think you get that at

all. But you know, we'll see.

It's a big field, so you never know where the money ends up

going. I will say the horse that if

you're going to try to beat her, I do think a horse like headline

numbers for Chad Brown with Dylan and Davis aboard is a

little bit interesting on the far outside.

That's one that's coming off a win in the top flight

Invitational last time out, went gate to wire that day and you

know, went a mile and an 8. So you know, the horse has the

foundation to be able to do that.

Has 1 / a dry track, has 1 / a wet track, has that sort of

positional versatility and broke its maiden going a mile at this

track last during the 4th of July weekend before we headed up

to Saratoga and won that race by 11 and at three quarter length.

So you know, daughter gun runner out of Kerlin.

So you know the tons of pedigree there up for that horse.

So like I said, I totally I'm going to be using my main

squeeze. I probably will end up singling

her depending on how the complexion of the race changes

with after scratches. But if I'm going to try to beat

her, I might just sub in a single with headline numbers and

again do kind of a smaller ticket that way.

Yeah, Sterling silver stands out as one if the track stays pretty

wet is an interesting one for Javier Castellano.

And frankly, I'm not in the business of betting against

time. Here comes the model grated

stakes. Like that's not what I'm going

to be doing. So he's one of those.

I do think if if Catherine Wheel stays in New York instead of

going to Monmouth, that one's really interesting to me because

she has won twice over the surface before and I think

Blabby and Pratt will give her a real chance to win.

Yeah, he will. And she sits, you know, kind of

an ideal trip in terms of that tracking trip where you let you

don't get the leaders, you know, too far out of touch from you,

you're not relying on some deep closing kick like others.

And so should absolutely set up well.

And I'll be honest, the horse that is a little bit of a price

who I'd be interested to see run back is Gun Song, another Mark

Henig, Johnny Velasquez combination.

This horse is second back from a long layoff.

If you remember, this one ran in that Just FYI allowance race

down at Gulfstream Park and was just as people were disappointed

in Just FYI. It was really Gun Song that I

thought was even more disappointing that day.

Of course, Just FYI comes back does not run well and kind of

eased in the double dog Derek Keeneland.

But still, this one's been working lights out leading up to

this race, 46 and 448 bullet 47 and 3.

So it seems like Henig has kind of tightened the screws on this

one and it feels like that race was just to knock some rust off

and you're getting 8 to one on a horse that almost beat Torpino

Anna last year in the Cotillion and almost beat Tari from the

Mother Goose. So pretty good back class in

terms of form. Not bad at all.

Of course, on this show, for the big races, we try to play a buy

or sell version of that race. Race 11 will be, by the way, the

Peter Pan. It's Grade 3 that's a mile and

an A start at the same line that they finish there at Aqueduct go

in the two turns on the dirt there for three-year olds.

Top three get spots in the Belmont gate if they would like

that $200,000 on the line in this one.

So Matthew, one of my favorite quotes from Peter Pan is all it

takes is faith and and trust. Oh, and I forgot dust.

And so for for the for the connections today and if they

can win, we're going to say that we trust the horse.

And if not, we're going to say it, they're dust.

All right, so let's go through this trust or dust as we play a

Peter Pan edition of Trust or dust.

How about that? We'll start with Bosma on the

inside. The one horse here.

This is one that you mentioned earlier as as being on the Derby

trail previously. This one ran in the Louisiana

Derby. Of course, before that, in the

Risen Star started his career at Gulfstream Park 4, trainer Todd

Pletcher has not been better than 4th.

Can either of those Derby perhaps trust or dust?

On a Vasimo at Aqueduct, I'm going to trust Vasimo and I

think that he is a horse that is going to get a much better trip

this time. There's not much speed in this

race. The inside rail draw I think

actually forces the hand of jockey Arad Ortiz Junior.

He's going to be out an aggressive if he's not on the

lead, he's going to be tracking right behind and sitting that

pocket trip behind Captain Cook, I would imagine.

And like you said, he's faced some pretty serious company in

those Derby preps. And you know, the 4th place

finish in the risen star, I think is a little deceiving just

because magnitude freaked that day and beat everybody by 9 and

three quarter lengths. So the margin of defeat looks a

little bit bloated compared to where he was relative to

everybody else in the field, including a horse like chunk of

gold who ran a pretty decent Kentucky Derby all things

considered. So you know, I Vasimo one for

top lettry ride RT Junior 5 to 1 on the morning line.

I definitely trust. This is a tough one.

He's right on the edge for me. It's a little dust, dust.

I I'll be a jerk. I'll go dust.

I I think I just didn't see enough in either of those races.

And I do think, for example, like I don't think built as a

horse is considerably better than a Captain Cook or

something. So to finish that many legs

behind a built to me, I'll go ahead and go dust.

Would I be stunned that Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Junior

win the Peter Pan and Aqua No 0%?

Of course. But I'll go ahead and go Dust

for these purposes and I'll be dumb enough to leave him off of

my tickets. Happily delusional.

Which shows what should be the name of this show.

His name? The 2 hole here for Paco Lopez

comes out off the Federico. Tessio did not qualify for the

Preakness, so we see that horse here.

Trust or dust here for the number 2.

Happily delusional. I'm going to dust and I'm going

to do it for two reasons. One is I just on the numbers and

just on the form. I don't think the horse is good

enough to win this race. The other is these cross

centered in the Long Branch which I think he has a much

better chance of running a pretty good race in down at

Monmouth on Saturday. I will leave dust on the screen.

Do do, do I agree with you? All right, so dust for the

number 2. Surfside Mood comes into 3 here.

You've heard of this guy. His name is Junior Alvarado.

He's writing for James Lawrence in this case was in that Tessio

as well. Last outer to Michael Sanchez

saw this horse of the Withers and run a good second frankly

before trying the Tessio. I think a lot of people thought

the horse had a really significant shot in the Tessio

and I know that because he was bet down to 4 to 1.

Where does he land though, in this Peter Pan field field?

As a win contender, he's a dust, as an underneath play, he's a

trust. I I like this horse quite a bit.

I think he's going to come in running at a big price.

And what he showed him that Withers is that he can close

into glacial fractions and they, you know, they went really slow

that day and they might not go particularly fast that day on

Saturday just because, like I said, there's not a lot of speed

in the race. But if I had confidence in one

horse who I know can get the distance and can make a run,

it's going to be Surfside moon picking up pieces.

I think you know your deeper vertical exotics.

Son of Malibu Moon junior Alvarado does get the mount here

if he can run back that Withers. I don't know that it wins on

Saturday, but it's it, like you said, it's for a minor, it's for

a good placing. I should, I don't recall a minor

place in a $200,000 race. It's not a minor place.

It's a good place. And so I I'm with you, two runs

this year hit the board and both I think he's going to do that

kind of thing again. But as you said, as far as a win

candidate, probably still a little bit of dust.

We moved to the fourth horse here that is Hill Road, Flavia

and Pratt and Chad Brown, 5 to 2, and the second favorite,

according to David Aragona, your colleague there.

Up at Vinira, I was called Vinira Hill Rd. for Chad Brown

and Flavia and Pratt. I imagine we have to take this

one pretty seriously because of connections at least.

We do, but I'm a little bit like Vasimo on you where I'm like,

OK, I like dust with this one. Like it's, he's really close for

me. And OK, I, you know, I, I

actually like the other brown horse in this race more, who I

think is probably going to end up running down at Monmouth.

But I, I'll say trust. I don't, but I, no, I don't

screw it. Put dust up on the screen.

We're dusting this horse. And so I, I just listen.

He's run twice in North America. He's finished third two times.

The blinkers had no effect on him sitting any closer to the

pace in the Tampa Bay Derby. Maybe second time blinkers has a

little bit more of an effect. He was obviously pointed towards

the Wood Memorial, spiked a fever and and was pulled out of

that race. I thought he had a good chance

in that race because of the way the pace dynamics were going to

play out. But I just don't see the pace

dynamics playing out in this race.

There's not going to be a lot of speed and I think a horse like

Avazimo is going to be able to get in a mile and an eighth.

I think a horse like Uncaged will get to in a little bit.

I think he can get a mile and an eighth and so I just wonder if

the track is going to be playing against him, if the pace is

going to be playing against him. And so at a short price, I'm

going to try to beat him. I'm.

Just going to leave the dust up because you need to go back to

Leopardstown, son. How about that?

How about you go back? Where you alone?

Well, well, well, I don't know. Little synthetic at Leopardstown

or something. Why don't you go do that?

I think that's where the horse longs.

I'm not kidding. I'm not at all sure that he's a

dirt horse. I'm just not sure.

Yeah, I don't know. I mean, I think and I wonder.

If we've seen plenty of quality roads go real well on the turf.

Oh yeah, and, and quality Rd. means a super versatile sire.

They can do a lot of things. But you do wonder if people got

maybe false hope over what they saw at Del Mar when he was the

only one making up grounding. He finished that big third.

And I don't know, I mean, you're you finished third to Owen

Almighty and Chancellor Mcpatrick.

Those two come back. I mean, we talked about Owen

Almighty earlier, but those two run back to run a dead heat for

last in the bluegrass, which is not exactly a ringing

endorsement for how good Hill Rd. is by comparison.

McAfee will be in the five here. This is John Velasquez and the

Dutch Row Barn ranked 5th in the Wood Memorial after a fifth in

the Gotham. Trust your dust here.

Oddly, I trust this horse. OK, talk to me.

And I do not I, I don't even trust that he might be running

on Saturday. So to be clear, I don't like

this horse has been a vet scratch multiple times.

So do I trust that he will actually run?

No. But if he does run, I kind of

trust him a little bit. And as and all this baked into

the price 8:00 to 1:00 in the morning line.

And the rationale here is listen, from a pedigree

standpoint, he's the half sibling to Thorpedo Anna.

From a speed figure standpoint, he has done nothing but get

faster in every single start of his career.

From an equipment's change standpoint, I love that Dutch

and put the blinkers on and this horse should be sitting more

forward and I think sitting more of a mid pack trip.

This horse has talent, and you've seen it.

You've seen the Source make up huge amounts of ground in both

in his maiden breaking victory as well as even as next start

where he nearly got up in time to be optical.

You know, he didn't run great in the in the Gotham and in the

Woodward, but now he's third back in the form cycle.

And like I said, the the most promising thing for me is a

horse that has historically been a vet scratch.

He's been working well for Dutrow regularly since coming

out of that wood memorial. So I think they all the medical

issues, I think are finally behind them.

Knock on wood. And I think at 8:00 to 1:00, I'm

going to trust this horse to run his race and I think run pretty

well. All right.

And dust I, I think blinkers on is a really good move for this

horse and it is a very good angle for Richard Dutrow.

I think this horse is actually going to get a bunch of money on

Saturday. I think that's the one that it's

going to get down to like 4 to 1.

So I'm going to try to beat here.

Wouldn't be stunned, wouldn't be stunned if he pulls it off.

But I also I'm a little waiting on the cloud computings to be

great as well so. We, we, we don't, we don't have

that much time to wait. We don't.

And by the way, we don't need to wait then.

So it's yeah, they're not, they're not great.

This is me trusting a oh God. What's the name of the horse

Instagram they go two turns something like this yes all

right so on caged is the six here another eight to water.

This is Todd clutch with the other ran a really really good

mile last out in the mud. So if we do have muddy

conditions 2 for two doing that. What say we about uncaged?

I actually, I like this horse a freaking lot.

This is a trust for me, Matthew. I'll go ahead and go first.

I have this horse on top of my handicapping and this is a lot

of the two sprints to a route to an even longer route that I love

for three-year olds. This is a son of Curlin, a very

expensive purchase at a keyless September sale in 23.

I get Kendrick, I get Todd at Aqueduct.

I know what that means. It's a 28% kind of connection.

I really think that this what pioneer the Nile on the damn

side. This is this is a horse set up

to go a mile in an eighth. I love the 8:00 to 1:00.

I love that I get a guy in Kendrick that has won tons of

these kinds of races at Aqueduct and I get Todd Pletcher placing

the source and it's not an accident, I don't think.

I think they very much think get me a Curlin in the top three of

this race. We'll go run in the Belmont and

see what happens. I'll go trust in the spot.

I feel good agreeing with you completely across the board

because I submitted my analysis of this race yesterday to an IRA

bet. So if you go there, you can see

that he is my top selection in this.

Oh my God, and. Set this up people, I promise.

No we did not. This is my top pick.

I absolutely love this horse for all the reasons you mentioned.

The debut was actually a lot better.

He beat 2 stakes horses in debut who was like Cyclone State who

of course goes Bond to win a stakes race up here in New York.

After that, listen, he comes back and and you said the you

said it yourself, the pedigree is this horse should run for

days. Todd brings him off the bench

after seven months and runs him in a six furlong race.

Clearly just let's knock the dust off.

Let's get him, you know, a little bit going.

Then he steps up and doesn't even have a great start in that

mile race, you know, kind of breaks inside bumps with his

horse, gets pinched back between two other horses.

It's kind of last place, makes up all the ground and ends up

winning going a mile. The wet track thing I think

people can look at and go, he's just a wet track horse.

No, he's not. And I say that because a both of

those days I went back and looked at Andy Sterling's track

trends. Both of those days the track

played fair despite it being a wet track.

So I think that's one thing to keep in mind.

There's no track bias those days.

The other thing is it might actually replicate around the

same conditions it will be on Saturday, which is the track has

taken a ton of rain. It's a nice day now and it's a

drying out track, which is what he ran over the other two times.

So even if you do think he's a little bit of a wet track, you

know, figure then that's what he's going to do.

I think third back in the form cycle going two turns for the

first time. I absolutely love this horse and

you get Kendrick aboard, I think he's going to be aggressive

because there's not really a lot of pace in this race and I think

he's going to want to get this horse up front and close and

just either tracking or leading. And I think this horse is good

enough to go gate Dwyer if he's up on the lead and good enough

to pass the leader if he's sitting in a second position.

How about that little agreement race 11 at Aqueduct?

How about that little? Here we go.

How about that race? The seven horse here is first

pitch. My God, Matthew, I want to love

this horse. I really do.

I want to love this horse so badly for Jose Jimenez, for Jose

Lescano. I thought a a nice job breaking.

It's made in the last time. I want to show people, though,

that they just ran the Kentucky Derby in 202.

This horse ran a mile and an eighth in 157.

Pretty slow horse. Unfortunately, even winning by a

billion likes last time. I'm going to go dust in 50 to

one. It is telling, though, by the

way, that everyone's so afraid to miss the long shot in the

Derby that the longest shot on the board is like 43 to 1.

And in the Peter Pan, we'll have a 50 to 1 duster trust here.

No, we're we're we're dusting this one last out maiden.

It just on the numbers is not quite fast enough at all.

And and you know, we'll we'll be there.

I it'll be interesting to see whether or not this one is, you

know, tries to show the speed that they did last time.

Although, you know, those fractions are so slow in that

race. I just have a hard time seeing

this one even getting up front necessarily in the early going.

So yeah, just a complete dust. Yep, one probably a Mr. there.

We move on to Captain Cook who is the morning line favorite in

this one, the eight horse here, Manny Franco, Richie Dutrow.

You are itching your beard, not making the slashing motion

across your neck. This one importantly in the wood

memorial kind of off the bench off a 2 two-month layoff.

This is second in the form cycle here for this one.

I think this is an include for me, a trust if you will, in this

spot here. Matthew, where did you land with

Captain Cook? I ultimately went with dust.

I I, I'm going to try to beat him.

And part of it was what I saw in the paddock at the Wood

Memorial. I saw a horse that's probably

going to be a one turn Miller Long.

Term. I just from a physical

standpoint, he just doesn't strike me as A2 turn horse.

You got the practical joke influence up top, you grab the

Indian Charlie influence underneath.

But I just think he's a he's a one turn Miller in a lot of ways

and he can get two turns when it sets up for him, IE the Withers

when they went 114 and change to the six furlong mark.

And if they're if they're loping around, then sure.

But if you have Vasimo and uncaged pressing him, then I and

and to be clear, a lot, I mean DRF or time form US should say

projects him to be on the lead. You've never actually seen him

on the lead. I don't know if Dutrow wants him

on the lead. He might be better running at a

target. But if that's the case, then

you're letting Vasimo and uncaged up there on the front

end. And I don't think he's better

than those two horses. So I'm going to try to beat him

in the spot as a short price favor.

OK, so dust for you. They're Bears town Baytown comes

in as the nine horse. We saw this OK, I say we saw him

in the Arkansas Derby. We saw him in the starting gate

of the Arkansas Derby and then once they broke, everyone got

very far away from him. So we didn't see him anymore,

but he ran technically 5th in that race.

All right, so serpent into ride. We've got Paul Mack and I I just

I, I I will dust for me. What do you?

What say you? I'd say a lot of dust for me,

yeah, there's no chance We're moving on.

The Ted horse here is Lordship and this is the last horse we'll

talk about today comes out of a maiden win at Tampa.

Your sense more likely to run at Monmouth or here at Aqueduct in

the Peter Pan. I have to think he's more likely

to run up Monmouth just because I you know, it's interesting if

you think the way Chad might manage this group of three-year

olds that he's got Chancellor is being going back to one turn.

So if Chancellor's going to be your one turn horse or Woody

Stevens horse or has your Jerkins type of horse, then it

would make sense to potentially put Lordship down in New Jersey

and he can be your Long Branch, Pegasus, Haskell type of horse.

Okay, So he can be your Jersey horse.

And then if you have that high of an opinion of Hill Rd., Hill

Rd. would ideally then for Brown be your or maybe Garamond be

your, you know, Peter Pan to Belmont to Jim Dandy to Travers

type of a horse. So again, if you don't want him

running against each other, maybe that's how you space them

out. Just kind of doing 3 different

circuits slash divisions. And but if he runs here, he is

dangerous and he is my second choice.

I like this horse a lot. That debut was impressive for me

and and he he hopped at the start, gave up a lot of ground

still made. He still managed to come on with

it and get the win. And he is the full sibling, the

Hall of Fame who we saw two back, of course, when the Grade

3 raced out at the fairgrounds and just finished third behind

fierceness and most wanted in the alley Sheba over the Derby

weekend over the on Oaks day undercard.

So I like this horse quite a bit, but I like this horse a lot

more down in the Long Branch, where I think he's probably

going to end up being the top choice for me.

Think about him. That's very interesting.

The only thing you didn't mention and I agree with you.

I think he's very interesting in this fun Chad Brown to start a

horse in a maiden going a mile on the dirt.

So not a turf horse going around, but starting on the dirt

is not it's never an accident. It is never an accident happens

very rarely. So this one he very clearly

thought, OK, gun runner top, we've got giants Causeway

bottom. This makes total sense that this

horse is always going to be a two turn type of horse.

Now, obviously we've seen exceptions in the gun runner

line where, you know, they're good sprinters as well, but it

makes sense that he would try it that way.

But also obviously saw something in training Tampa's buyer

figures like a 75 there is worth like an 83 at Santa Anita or

like an 84 or something, right? And so I do think 23 and 146 and

three. Those are those are fractions

that he's probably going to have to run into in this race.

I think those are probably Peter Pan kind of numbers.

High, you know, high 46, maybe low 47 for the half mile, That

kind of thing. Closed on debut.

I like Dylan, I do a lot actually, and I don't think we'd

get 12 to one if he stays up there.

But Long Branch, come on, Long Branch, be better.

Choose a different day. How about that messing up

Matthew's weekend? I don't like that at all.

Where do people don't like it at all?

All right, where should they go? Look for stuff.

What's that? Where should they go?

Find yourself. Oh well, they can go find my

stuff on naira bets at naira bets on X.

They can also find it at my X account at failed to menace.

We got the naira bets YouTube channel as well.

We have race previews, full cardinalysis handicapping,

embedding tutorials. We got preakness spotlights on

all the major contenders. That's changing every single

day. I I feel bad.

I keep asking our creative department for new YouTube

thumbnails for them to do and I'm like, can you do this horse?

Can you do that? Of course here's a new horse.

No, take that horse out now put this horse in so you know,

always got a lot of content for you, whether it's Preakness or

just your week to week races as well.

I give you Rodriguez and journalism or the field.

Who do you take in the Preakness?

Let's assume everyone's. Starting I I would take the top

two I agree yeah. And here's by the way, that's.

Excellent for our three-year old crop, by the way, that we know.

I, I, like I said when we started the show, we got

everything except for the Derby winner going to the Preakness.

With that Derby, we got everything because the Preakness

was really set up for some cool new shooters, which is one of

the difficult parts of the of the Triple Crown trail is, is

running into those new fresh shooters.

I, it's just such a shame that's not happening.

But I do think, I think the Preakness field is going to end

up being 8-9. I think it's going to be fun.

Yeah, I think it's gonna, well, even if it's gonna be fun on the

infield, I'll tell you that much.

No there. Or wherever I am.

Yes, I love the. Freakness.

They're gonna, yeah, it's, they call it the freakness for a

reason. And so it's gonna be a lot of

fun. And trust the freakness.

Yeah, trust the Preakness. Absolutely.

And you know, trust Black Eyed Season Day too, which is always

a lot of fun. So underrated.

For sure. Very underrated day.

One of my favorite days in the middle, not just in the

Mid-Atlantic, one of my favorite racing days period.

So, yeah, no, it's great. And so it's going to be a fun,

it's going to be a front Preakness and and I hope

journalism goes. And that would certainly make it

a lot of fun and much more compelling if he does.

Because otherwise I think Rodriguez just walks the dog up

front and Bob gets the 9th trophy.

It would be really fun if journalism went and won and then

we got the rematch in the Belmont.

I, I don't know, Look, it's a nice consolation prize for not

getting the Derby winner in the Preakness.

It really would be. Are you going to the Preakness?

Yeah. Are you going?

To the no, am I going to the Preakness?

No, I'm not going to the Preakness.

No, I am. I'm going to be up here in New

York doing New York things and. Which is which?

I don't want to know. Whoa.

Where it's a family show. It's a family show.

Whoa, whoa. No, no.

Which is honestly just getting ready for the Belmont Stakes at

Saratoga and having to move all my stuff up there for a week and

1/2. So that's what I'm getting ready

for there. There you go, he's happy to say

this. I failed the medicine, of

course, and IRA bets for all the stuff going on with them.

I really do appreciate you jumping on.

Apologies for the technical problems, but happy freakness

and all that. But first, of course, happy Long

Branch. How about that interrupting

everything we're trying to do on the show?

Well, yeah, happy, happy opening day at Monmouth.

We will go. Shout out to Matt Dinerman.

We love it. That's true.

I would I would fight you on that, but I really like that.

All right, get out of here. We'll get him out of here.

He's Matthew DeSantis. Thanks, buddy.

I'll catch you next time. All right, Matthew DeSantis,

naira bats, all the things. Go check him out there as well.

Reminder next week we are in Charm City for the entire

weekend. Jimmy's Seafood Friday night of

Black Eyed Susan day ahead of the Preakness on that day,

hanging out with our friends at amwagerandamwager.com.

We'll have some giveaways from them as well.

We'll have some hats and different things as part of that

evening. Go up to the second floor, walk

past the bar. There's a little room in the

back. We always get that room since

about 25. It's perfect for the Preakness

stuff that we always get to do. We'll have some handouts for you

and different things to help you through your bedding all day on

Saturday. So again, Kelly, Francois, me,

Scott Wyckoff from WBAL, you can catch us there.

And I haven't really announced it on this show, but I'm going

to be sitting down with Scott and doing the three hour radio

pre race for the Preakness coverage on WBAL from 11:00 AM

to 2:00 PM Eastern Time. I'll find out the best way for

you to interact with that show. We might just have to set it up

on my Twitter feed or something like that for people to be able

to interact with that show. But I'm really really frankly

honored and excited to get going on that show with Scott.

I'm hoping it becomes a multi year partnership where he and I

are working on that program together.

I'm Louis Ribow, this has been the horse racing happy hour.

Thanks so much for spending your Peter Pan Thursday with us ahead

of that race. We'll be back next week of

course. We'll be previewing the Black

Eyed Susan Friday and Preakness Saturday 11:50 on Friday we'll

have a one hour preview show on ESPN Louisville as well on

Preakness Day and then you'll hear from me 3 hours on WBAL,

but for everybody over here at the Horse Racing Happy Hour.