Jim Dandy 2025 | Kaylie Shapiro

I welcome in late July edition of the Horse Racing Happy Hour.

It is July 24th on the calendar and of course it is.

We'll talk with Kaylee Shapiro on this audition of the episode.

We'll walk through the field to figure out who it is.

It's going to give sovereignty the most trouble on this room.

I'm Lou Rabel, thanks for hanging out with us.

Find us on the socials at Horse Happy Hour, me at Radio Louie.

You can find me every weekday 11:50 here in this studio at

ESPN 680 and 105.7 in the Louisville market here.

You can stream us anywhere in the world like all radio

stations. Sounds be very clear.

We're not doing anything groundbreaking here at ESPN

little bit other places aren't doing but certainly you can find

us there horse racing segment 10/20 every Friday morning.

But we're going to get straight into the handicapping today.

Shorter episode today and looking forward to having Kaylee

on. She's up there in New York

obviously on the ground from naira bets she will walk us

through all of that. She wants to walk through the

dandy with me. So we will do that.

But I want to talk about the Lake George, which will be race

9 the the race right before it frankly, as you are looking at

the car there. So race 9:00 tomorrow.

Let me get my banners up. How about that little banner

talk? Honestly, that's for the Jim

Danny, that's not what we're talking about here.

Talk about the Lake George, it's a grade 3 mile and a 16th on the

inner turf course. And if you have followed the

show for more than 5 seconds, you know, if it's not on the

Mellon turf course, if it's not on the bougie turf course,

that's Saratoga. I'm not interested.

But I still have to talk about this race because it is a Grade

3. It is for Phillies.

They're three years old as well. And we get a match up again of

two horses in this field that people really like.

Classic Q comes back in for Mark Cassie out of that win in the

wild applause before that up the track in the regret here at

Churchill Downs just down the street, but got back to that

mile distance. Really, really enjoyed it Has to

go a mile on the 16th here. So I have a real question.

Will she want to get that last little bit of distance by the

time we get there the five Classic Q apologize.

My summer summer cold is back and I think it's a real

question. I I I think some of the horses

coming out of the regret like a fion like some of those other

horses would be in a better spot to run the mile on a 16th here.

And that makes me wonder if lavender disaster the eye rider

tease mount here as well for Chad Brown isn't going to want

to get the distance either. Best run as at a mile.

Really got tired last time as part of that pace early in the

race there as well. Just couldn't keep up with the

classic queue in that one. Will that be a place where they

run out of time between the two of them?

And that's why I'm going to go ahead and I'm going to lean on a

horse that's already one in a mile and a 16th at the

Fairgrounds going two turns on the turf.

Let's play with fire. Manny Franco picks up, picks up

the mound here. Flavian Pratt just didn't get

this horse there in time last time.

An extra half and furlong. This horse wins the race.

I expect a bit of a repeat of what we saw in that wild

applause last out over that 4th of July at Saratoga, which by

the way, they listed Saratoga not as bat ball.

You know, Belmont at Saratoga, NY.

Very, very straightforward place.

I do love that Jorge Abreu threw in a a main track only like

they're gonna give up the greatest stakes here on this

one. But again, we're just waiting on

Kaylee Shapiro. We'll get here in here and I see

her now. So we'll get her here in just a

second. Of course, from Naira Bets,

talking about the Jim Dandy this Saturday over there at Saratoga.

But again, I'm gonna lean on the 10 in the Lake George in Play

with Fire. That is Chad Brown and Manny

Franco, the two of them. An underrated jockey trainer

combo there in New York for sure.

But we welcome Kaylee to the show.

Really, really glad she's able to cut out some time for us.

She's even got a window. How about that?

Look at that Kaylee, how are ya? How are you doing?

Thank you for having me today. No.

Problem. It's been 5 days since we hung

out. How much do you miss me?

It's got to be ridiculous. I can't.

Imagine just a little bit. I mean, that was our first time

meeting, but definitely it was really nice meeting you.

So I was really happy to join today.

Yeah, Haskell Day is awesome, isn't it not?

I mean, just a, just a spectacular day of racing and

the crowd is awesome. It's just a fun day.

Yeah, I love the Haskell so much.

I've been going since I was really young every year and

definitely really cool to go back now.

And I mean the young crowd that Monmouth brings out every year

is definitely really great for the sport.

And that's something that I noticed a lot when I was walking

around yesterday, even more so than usual.

So yeah, it was a really fun day the.

Other part too, is some of those folks that were in that 20

somethings group that went to Haskell, you can tell they

brought their babies now that they're in their 30s, right?

There were babies at the track on Saturday, which I love it.

So you can tell it a lot of those things for those groups.

Hey, no, Saturday Haskell, we're all going.

You got a baby, cool, bring the baby, but we're all going to the

Haskell. I like that a lot.

Yeah, I know. Same.

It was. It's really funny.

I mean, that reminds me, that's probably how I looked when I was

a baby. So I always think of that.

Yeah. But I mean, I can't lie.

If I have kids, one day they probably will be at the Haskell.

You're on the track. That's exactly right.

Yeah. No, I'm the guy.

Someone made fun of me for having my kids at the track one

time. And I was like, do you want this

to happen in 20 years from now or not?

Like, 'cause they gotta, they gotta make a decision.

They wanna be around this thing. So anyways, well, we wanted to

have you in. Yeah.

No kidding. Jim.

Danny's this weekend, The return of sovereignty.

You got to see journalism this last Saturday in obviously in

the Haskell. You've seen him in up close in

the Belmont as well. You know.

What do you make of journalism's win in the Haskell?

We'll start there. I thought, you know, it's

amazing we have these cliches in our sport and horse racing.

Oh, he, he knows where the finish line is.

He just really does like sometimes it's OK.

Horses just know how to win. And he see he appears to be one

of those. Definitely.

I mean, I think no matter how tired that horse is or the

trouble that he encounters, I think that he'll always find the

finish line. He's he always looks like he's

not going to find it. But he's the only horse that's

ever looked like that, that I have complete confidence will

get there. I mean, journalism, obviously

he's a spectacular horse. He's travelled across the

country to participate in all the legs of the Triple Crown and

then the Haskell. So great for the sport.

And definitely the big performance he put on makes

sovereignty look even better. So that's that's another thing.

And, you know, Gossgar ran back to form, so that was another

thing to know. Yeah, Gozgar's I think an

underrated horse. It's interesting, you know, in

these different years who would have been whom if there wasn't

the top end competition. And Gozgar seems to be that

third horse this year, except Byes is in your race up there at

New York as well. We'll talk about him as as who's

in that second tier of of three-year olds this year, maybe

horses that we'll be lucky enough to see next year as 4

year olds running in those sort of the old handicapped division

we call it around here. But no, I thought the the thing

with journalism that's really fascinating to me, Kaylee, and

it's it's something that I get reminded of every spring is how

important the Triple Crown is in what we do.

And so we did a mid mid year eclipse awards on a podcast, I

hope it's called Blood Horse Monday, and we put it out there

to the public. Who's been the horse of the year

to this point. And the number 2 vote getter

wasn't mine frame who won the church, by the way, sovereignty

wins. OK, so that's that's a point

right there. That the horse that everybody

was quote UN quote mad at for skipping the Preakness still

voted for as the horse of the year.

The second part is journalism finishes second and not my vote,

which was mine frame who won the Churchill Downs against

everybody, Bulkham, Dano Nicos, everybody was in that race.

Turns around a month and a half later, runs at 9 furlongs, wins

the Stephen Foster right against Sierra Leone, who's the reigning

winner of the of the Breeders Cup Classic of show.

All these things. No journalism got the second

most votes and it's for what you just talked about, Kaylee.

It's if you bring your horse and he performs well or she performs

well, whatever, people are going to fall in love and the star

power still matters. I learned I I was reminded of

that this spring, and journalism has been the reminder.

Yeah, definitely. I mean, you can't really make a

star out of a horse. Like, you know, there's a lot of

horses where I always say, well, that's a really cool horse.

And you know, I say that about these types of horses that make

fans out of people. I mean, you can win all the

greatest stakes races in the world and there's just not that

special quality about you that the people love, even if you

like the horse. And journalism and sovereignty,

to me, they are two of those horses that I think created a

lot of fans. Even I noticed, I mean, I'm 24

and I spend a decent amount of time on TikTok and I noticed a

lot of people continuing to follow.

I, I respect a Sandman. I think that kind of introduced

that to the younger generation. And then now people are fans of

sovereignty and journalism. So I don't think that there's no

reason for that happening this year.

Yeah, no, it's been really, really fun.

You mentioned Sandman. Let's go ahead and get to the

dandy. We have a tradition on this

show, young Kaylee, that we have to have a buy or sell segment

for whether a horse can win or not win in a race.

OK, so we're gonna play a game. If a horse can win, they're

dandy. OK.

All right. So like sovereignty, probably

dandy. OK.

And if they're not, we're gonna say they're they're fine.

They're fine and dandy. We'll do that today.

OK. So if it's they're fine, I'm

glad they're here. But you know, they're not gonna

win in this spot. We usually go one through 5.

Today, we're gonna go 5 through 1.

Just cause sovereignty is on the outside.

Kaylee. So let's start with him.

We know his resume, Kaylee. I was one of the people that

thought they were really smart and gave out sovereignty as the

top pick in the street since in December or November because he

was a maiden coming in from New York.

And then he was the betting favorite because everyone else

knew exactly what I did. But he has only lost once since

then. That was in the Florida Derby to

to Pan St. who's no longer on the trail at all.

Finer dandy for for sovereignty. And do you have a favorite race

of his? I'll do that too.

Sovereignty is very dandy. I think he's the dandiest of of

them all and definitely I think honestly the dandiest of a lot

of the three-year olds we've seen maybe since Justify.

That's really how I how I value this horse.

I think he's a special horse. He breathes different air.

I'm not gonna keep going on and on about it, but he's definitely

very dandy and I'd say my favorite from him is probably

the Belmont. I think he showed a different

dimension last time out, sitting closer to the pace than he's

ever had to. Yeah, speed figures just keep

climbing. It'll be interesting to see if

he can climb even further. I meant to ask you so you get to

do work with Nick Zito, who I think is hilarious.

Do you know Nick Zito's tied to this race by chance?

To the I'm not I I'm really embarrassed to admit that I

don't, but I probably will when you say it.

As soon as I say it. So he trained Louis Cat's

Rollers, who won this race? Yeah, at Day Rd.

But it's still the fastest time in the history of the Jim Dandy.

How about that? Oh wow, I didn't.

I have to tell him that. Wow.

He still has the record, so they got.

Yeah, that's. Really good and knowing Nick,

he'll appreciate here on that. So the Hill Rd. will break from

the four. This is a horse that a lot of

people like and I think they should.

This is one that showed a lot in that Peter Pan certainly wasn't

quite ready for the Tampa Bay Derby when the horse tried that

in early March. We always forget, you know, if a

horse isn't ready for the Derby, it doesn't mean they're

necessarily a bad horse. They're just developing at a

different rate than some of those horses that might be ready

to be here in Louisville on that first Saturday in May.

But Hill Rd. a son of quality Rd. we get lemon drop kid on the

on the damn side. This is obviously one the

distance isn't an issue. Nice price of 12 to one.

We get irad Chad Finer dandy. He's fine.

I, I'm really, I love this horse.

I weirdly enough, like I had a thing for this horse.

So when he first came to America and I picked him in the Peter

Pan because I don't think he's super pace dependent.

But then again, I mean, this is a different class of horses that

he's facing. And I'm still waiting for the

horse to switch his lead and then maybe he'll become a little

dandy. But.

Is there is there a scenario in which he just kind of plods

along and it's so fast up front that he gets maybe not a win but

a good check here? Maybe.

I mean, I wouldn't be shocked. I I think honestly, I'm, I have

my eye on another deep closer. I think that's going to run a

pretty good race, But so I didn't really include Hill Rd.

in my top three, but I won't be shocked.

All right, she's Kaylee Shapiro. She's joining us here on the

horse racing. We are playing Fine or dandy

with the Jim Dandy field on Saturday.

They're up at Saratoga. She will be in in person for

that one. She and I hung out at the

Haskell like the cool kids do getting to Moplex.

So this is an interesting one. We get a New York bred in this

field, which I always like when these sorts of things work out.

A son of complexity could not have been more impressive in the

in the Ohio Derby. And that is a race, frankly, a

good horse win. It really is.

It's it's still a half million dollar race.

It's a, you know, a race that very, very good horses win.

He beats chunk of gold by open links in that one.

Mcafee's up the track in that one.

People really thought he was going to be part of that as

well. I like him here because I think

he's going to inherit the lead. Kaylee.

Whether he can keep it up the whole way and be fast enough to

hold off someone like sovereignty is a massive

question for sure. But I do think he's going to

inherit the lead here. I would agree he's fine.

I. Honestly.

He's a really nice horse and you know, obviously we were for New

York brats, but I really like his way of moving.

He's a pretty moving horse. There's a lot to like about him,

but he's really jumping into some deep waters off that one

one figure where he had a dream trip.

And I honestly have doubts of him replicating that this

distance, this track. But I mean, he he should run a

pretty good race. I, you know, but he's just fine

to me. Kind of.

Yeah, trying two turns for the first time there was running

that mile, that one turn mile at Aqueduct over and over.

Seemed to have some decent success there as well.

I just I I like the Manny Franco angle of this too, because he's

a guy that I trust on the front with a lead to rate The the

problem for this guy is that the sovereignty's in this race.

It's just I. Don't.

Want to tell you sovereignty in this race, otherwise I'd feel

really good about multiple X at this time.

Yeah, like, yeah, he could have been interesting in the Haskell

too, for example, with with the running styles of the different

runners in that one. He would have been I think part

of that three-way finish, you know, the at the end of that

race as well. So interesting, interesting

spot. Hopefully he's good here.

Throwing the blinkers on is Sandman.

I'm interested to see this. We got to interview a part of

his ownership at DJ Stable the other day and they are pretty

darn excited about his comeback here.

Fine or dandy on Sandman here. He's a little dandy.

He's not fine. Yeah, he's definitely.

And I didn't like Sandman all year.

Like I really never liked the horse.

I didn't have him in my top 4/3 for any of the races.

But this, this time I'm putting him right underneath

sovereignty. I'm going to put him second and

hopefully try to find some Holly with Sandman.

He's six to one on the morning line.

I think Baeza is going to take a ridiculous amount of money.

Yeah, and I think, honestly, Sam Mann's cranked up for this race.

He threw in some pretty fast works, and I think he looks

really good with his blinkers. I think he has a lot more focus

and he looks a lot more alert. And maybe he sits a little bit

closer in the gym dandy, But all I know is that they've had their

eye on this race for a very long time and he's working up really

well to it. I think that's right.

So you're essentially in this race, you expect to have two

closers, but it's going to be, it's going to be sovereignty

that gets the job. Sandman follows him into second

place, essentially. Yeah, that's how I see it

playing out. And oddly enough, I have had

this weird theory. I think Baeza might even be on

the lead. OK.

I would ask you about that. OK.

SO2 parts to this that are actually interesting for the

pace conversation about this razor.

I think before the Belmont, you talked about sovereignty showing

the new dimension of being closer earlier.

They very clearly in, you know, in the Cassie camp think that

Sandman's got to be closer. And by the way, they're correct.

You can't be closing from the clouds in every race and expect

to pick any of these things off. Being red route one, for

example, is very, very difficult.

You're just not going to win many races that way.

So I agree with the the sort of general thought of the tactics.

To me, it's pretty clearly that's why they're throwing the

blinkers on. For example, with Ieza.

Do you think there's a chance that they they're bringing in

Hector Barrios to just out of the gate bang, bang, bang and

and try to get out front? It sounds like you do.

I do I I think so a little bit. I mean by MO Plex had a really

nice trip just tracking right off the pace last time off

Clever again. He sat pretty close to that

horse. I I think we can see similar

positioning in the Jim Dandy. I won't be shocked if I see

either one of them up on the lead.

It's going to be one of the two of them, obviously, but Baeza

makes all the sense in the world to make that argument.

I mean, breaking from the one hole gets back to the original

jockey. And I don't really think that

they want to be travelling next to sovereignty.

And if they're sitting, you know, a length or two off of MO

Plex, they're they're going to be nearby sovereignty.

And I think they're going to try to establish some sort of

position or advantage early on. Bais is fine or dandy.

Bais is fine. OK.

All right. OK.

All right. So you're 2 dandies, of course,

in order, sovereignty and Sandman.

So you are leaning on the closers here.

Of the other three, do you have Baez as the most likely winner?

Yeah, I have them third. I mean, it's you can't deny he's

run some pretty good figures. He's closest to sovereignty out

of the field. But I mean, I just haven't seen

anything from this horse that really makes me like him or view

any sort of upside, especially at 3:00 to 1:00 morning life.

Yeah, a couple of different things about about Baeza's

numbers, for example, never, you know, this year not missed the

board, he missed it in 2024, but he's earned over $800,000 this

year. And in any other year we would

look at a three-year old that's made 800K and go, wow, wow, look

at this guy. Oh my gosh, he's so successful.

And it said he's he's up against journalism and, and against

sovereignty. It's just, it's just, it's the

nature of this game. It is the nature and obviously

has that big pedigree being out of puka half to major door

knock. So there is that.

And I think that also attracts a lot of money as well.

And yeah, I just, I, I view him in sovereignty as being in

pretty similar positions. If he's not up on the lead.

If he's up on the lead, I think he's cooked.

But if he's close to sovereignty I I don't see him getting it

done. Either way.

I won't be shocked if he finishes second, but I'm leaning

towards Sandman obviously. I mean 6 to 1.

I think he'll get a little better price.

On him. I think you will too.

Yeah. I wanted to ask you this part

too, with sovereignty. So I remember before the Florida

Derby talking with Brian Nadeau, who works at Gulfstream Park,

and he's really excellent. And he said, man, I'm just not

sure he's gonna be cranked up. And I, and my counter argument

was, bro, it's still a grade one.

Like we're talking Godolphin, like they're still gonna care

about the Grade 1. And then we hear the comments

about going to Baltimore and, and, and what they care about.

Is there any place in your mind, Kaylee, where maybe they're just

keeping them on the track and the dandy and it's really the

traverse that is the marker here.

And does that matter? And that might be the other

part. It may not matter. 80% of

sovereignty might be good enough.

That's how I think. I don't really think it matters

that much. And also I think he's a little

bit more lightly race than a lot of the others in here.

And I saw a video of Bill Mont saying that, making that point

and saying that therefore, you know, it's kind of puts him in

an advantage where he can run a decent race here and then still

save a little in the tank for a big blowout in the Travers.

I think, you know, the horse can win at 85 percent, 80% here in

the gym dandy and I think he does everything.

I mean, if you look back at the Belmont, he didn't, he wasn't

asked that hard to to do that. So I, I don't really think that

it'll take much out of him or that they'll say, I think he can

go into it like you said at 80% and get the job done for sure.

All right, so this is part of the Grand Slam bet up there,

which, and it's not the closing race, it's the third race.

Which three horses are you throwing into your bet?

If you're playing the the Grand Slam, 'cause if people don't

know, you just need your horse to finish in the top three in

the first three legs and then pick the winner in the final

leg. Which three horses would you

include in the Grand Slam? Out of the Jim Dandy if I'm not

mistaken. Yeah, yeah, it's the it's the

third race in the Grand Slam this weekend.

Yeah. I mean, I would only include

sovereignty. I, I, I view him as a strong

single here and if I'm playing any bets, I'm going to, you

know, try to, I'm betting everything straight sovereignty

on top of everyone. I, I'm very confident that this

horse will win on Saturday. So, and I think honestly, even

if he does win on, when he does win on Saturday, we can

anticipate a pretty big performance in the Travers.

I think we might see something close to a track record in my

opinion, if that's what they're saving all the gas in his tank

for. So.

Little gas in the tank talk with Kaylee Shapiro.

She's from that's fine. Shapiro, 13 on the socials as

well. Is Naira Bets doing more stuff

on TikTok? I am not a TikTok guy, 'cause

I'm a dad and I dress like this, but I need to be is very obvious

what I'm hearing from you that Sandman has all this following

in this kind of stuff. Is Naira bets doing a bunch of

stuff on on TikTok? We're not we don't really well,

we don't do anything on TikTok Naira bets.

I mean, we have a lot going on on Twitter, but Naira General

just at the Naira definitely has a lot of stuff.

On Tik. T.O.K, So definitely check that

out and I'll be there tomorrow trying to see him at I think

5:30. He'll be on the main track, so

that'll be nice to take a good look at him.

And yeah, but I actually, I mean, we should, we're probably

going to get started with TikTok soon, which is exciting.

Yeah, well, let me know when you do so you can show me how to do

it. All right, She's getting Sharir

on there. It's Saratoga.

We appreciate her jumping on the horse racing gap here.

OK, we'll catch you next time. Thank you.

Thank you so much. There you go.

Kaylee Shapiro joins us here on the show itself.

Again, she is going 5 to one in the gym dandy.

So Sandman at 6:00 to 1:00 will be here sort of upset, kind of

2nd place play there. I don't have a strong, strong

feeling about this race. I know that sovereignty is the

class. He's the best horse here.

I think if there's going to be an upset of him, it's going to

be in this spot and it will be by ISM.

And so if you wanted to get aggressive, if you want to make

money on Saturday at Saratoga and actually blow up the board a

little bit, you're gonna have to beat sovereignty.

Just how it works. I don't think there's a lot of

value in the races right before then.

There might be in the maiden right after, there might be in

that maiden 50 at the end of the card.

It's probably pretty smart that they put those together that

way. But even then, there's a Brad

Cox, Manny Franco in the last race that I think is really

good. So boy, oh boy, gonna be tough

to make money up at Saratoga this weekend.

But good luck to all of you with your wagers that way.

Tomorrow on the Kentucky Racing Spotlight, we'll welcome jockey

Tyler Gothal Leone to the program.

It will drop right here on this podcast network wherever you

happen to be listening. So we will have that up for you

as well. My gosh, Josh, my guy, Josh

Rodriguez will be in to handicap the late pick three at Ellis

Park on Sunday as we pump up those Sundays down there at

Ellis Park where it is also college day.

So you have to be a college student.

Pop on by there, but I'm Louis Ribo.

This has been another edition of the Horse Racing Happy Hour.

Really appreciate everyone hanging out with us on the

program. Taking Kaylee here from up there

at Naira. A quick episode, quick turn

around.