Ellis Park Derby 2025 | Handicapping Roundtable

That's true, kid life is good. Welcome in Thursday initial

heartbreaking happier hour 4th of August this year.

August 7th edition of the program.

Handcapped, Handcapped roundtable ahead of a big day on

Sunday at Ellis Park. As I tell you every week, if you

want to show about Saratoga, there are 30 podcasts talking

about Saratoga this weekend. You are certainly welcome to

join any of those. You can find us at Horse Happy

Hour on Twitter and on the platform as well.

I talked to Jason Bean yesterday on my radio show.

You can hear from him ahead of the Arlington Million.

I'll talk to Joe Christophe tomorrow ahead of all of the

racing on Sunday down there. And Brad Cox will be my guest on

the Kentucky Racing Spotlight and you will hear this program

as part of that as well. The handicapping section, at

least at the end of that program.

Josh has been on that program. How about that Josh?

Josh a bougie guy. I mean, just look at this guy,

by the way. By the way, do we need to hear

from JD Fox tonight? I, I, JD, yes.

Champagne. Way less, right?

I mean, that's really where we're at with this.

Stuff. Hey, wait, wait, wait, wait,

wait, wait. I'm down for that you.

Confused JD Fox with me so he's all good.

Every time I did man, that was a great moment for me.

Last week was was me calling JD Fox Berry.

What a job by me just a what a host.

What a chair one. This guy is here Chase.

How are you buddy? You doing all?

Right, man, I'm living the dream man.

Just got back from Alaska, so like I'm.

How was? That.

It was amazing. It was it a word.

It was indescribable. But yeah, food is great.

I put on like 50 lbs. It was really cool.

Really, really cool. Love.

Hearing that, I don't know if we're gonna start call JD the

sniper, but he's more a sniper than an urban handicapper, as

far as I could tell. Yeah, that's really where we're

at on all these things. Josh, you've been all right,

man. It's good to.

See you. Yeah, I literally reinstalled

Windows about 10 minutes before we went live here and just

amazingly, I clicked the stream yard link was the first thing I

clicked on, and everything's working.

I have no idea why I'm not touching anything until I get

through all my content this week, but hopefully and this,

this would be future Josh's problem.

But you know, we'll take one here.

I have no sympathy for future Josh.

I'll be there on Sunday. Barry, by the way, have you been

to Ellis Park? I have not.

I've heard the pee patches is quite the place though.

It's a very open air experience. If you you know, we call the

Preakness the County Fair, the Triple Crown.

Ellis Park is the real County Fair.

It really is. No, it's good stuff.

I'm excited to be there on Sunday.

Derby juvenile, debutant, all the good things happening.

We're gonna talk about the late Pick 5 on this show.

Do a handicapping round table with our guys here.

You know Chase from the notorious OTB.

He's part of the Sports Gambling Podcast Network and Josh part of

that group with On the Wrong Lead.

You can check out their podcast as well.

And of course, you know Barry because he hangs out with me too

often. That's what happens.

I'm not sure why you hang out with me, Barry.

Is it the money? I assume it's the money.

No, it's the. Association.

Of my twin, JD Fox. That's a great mistake by me.

It really is. I mean this, that's something

really spectacular. I love it.

All right, well, let's get into it.

Anything come to mind when you think of these summer derbies

guys? So, you know, this is a mile

one, for example. We can get into it a little bit

more in detail, but when you get into these kinds of races,

Chase, we'll start with you. Are you thinking of these as,

hey, these are horses that I'm trying to figure out who's going

to be, you know, running well in the future or hey, I just care

about who's going to win on Sunday?

I really just care about who's going to win on Sunday.

I I think it's where at this point where it's, you know, we

know who the biggest, most physically developed 2 year olds

are. Like, we'll see how they come

back as 3 year olds. So I try not to get get, you

know, sucked into it too much. So yeah, that's kind of my take

on it. Barry, any anybody stand out as

a a potential monster of the second-half of the year.

You think Admiral Dennis can be that?

Certainly. Can this, this will be the

starting point for a horse like that, But I, I'm still waiting

for somebody to kind of come out of the weeds that that we

haven't seen too much of yet. Yeah.

Now those late developers, we always assume we know the crowd

by the end of the Triple Crown, do we not?

And then boom, we meet somebody who makes the traverse real

interesting, whatever it might be.

Josh might be magnitude, we saw him earlier in the spring, but

of course coming off the bench, you'll hear from Brad Cox

tomorrow, like I said on the racing spotlight to Pan St.

about by the way as well. So lots of horses that are kind

of in the wings as well with our three-year old group should be

interesting moving forward. But we'll have tickets for every

from everybody at the end of the program too.

So if you can't stick around, make sure you jump back in.

We'll go out. We'll have them up on screen.

You can find them on Spotify, YouTube, wherever it is that you

find this show as well. But we'll start with Race 6.

It is the start of the late pick five there, the Ellis Park

Juvenile. By the way, the pick five does

have a very playable 15% take out at Ellis Park. 7 furlongs on

the dirt here, By the way, every stakes race this week.

Last week we talked turf races as part of that Kentucky Downs

preview. This week we're completely on on

the dirt. The juvenile is for two year

olds. It is $200,000 and the Kitty

Berry you get to go first here bud.

This is an interesting one. Only six horses.

We do have a an even money favorite and comport on the

outside. Mike Berry MM Hey AJD, turn your

mic on. JD had his mic off.

It's gonna be hard to get around that horse.

You know, Those two races that that Comport is run were really,

really good. You know that horse Romeo that

beat this horse on June 29th is a pretty decent horse in his own

right. This horse ran competitively

against that one and probably stands out of, you know,

compared the rest of these. However, there is a situation

where somebody could get loose on the lead and I think St.

Player might be that particular horse.

I know he didn't run that well at Prairie Meadows.

If he does run in this spot, I think he might be tough just off

the pace. Scenario alone, we are talking

as I should have it on the screen.

We're talking to the juvenile Race 6 on Sunday at Ellis Park.

Josh, I know for you this is a single as well.

Yeah, You know, we were talking a little bit before the stream

and if the number six comport doesn't win this race, I have no

idea who does, right. And yeah, I, I, I think maybe

you could make a look, take a look at maybe the 1P Ken, I

thought was was the other horse in here.

You know, obviously Steve Asmussen's always, you know,

great with these two year olds. He's always got, you know, he's

got these horses, you know, rearing to go and especially,

you know, going this, you know, Sprint distance, going that 7

furlong, you know that that's, that's his bread and butter.

So, but I don't know Comport looks like like much the best

improve that last time out and I don't know, I think he's going

to be the one to be here. We're talking 2 year olds chase,

so step forward is obviously on the plate for many of these

horses. I know you've got shake and

rattle in your handicapping. What do you like about Jaime

Torres and him? I, I loves me some pocket trips.

Is is what this comes down to. I I really thought that this

you're going to kind of see like a wall of speed.

You'll see two horses sit like not very far off of it.

And those two horses were the 2 that I added in my ticket toss

comport. It was the 1P Ken, as someone

mentioned. Then also the two shake, rattle,

shake, rattle. Mostly the pick due to the the

price, but also love seeing the five for long works getting

work, getting run through this one.

I think Dsormo's got the the screws tightened and it's a

horse that's ascended in speed figures like all three starts.

I, I think that that's a recipe for something good happening.

I fade comport because I sometimes, you know, running a

strong 77 and finishing second can sure take a steam out of a 2

year old. So I, I kind of want to fade

comport on that. Like we've seen what they can

do. It might be time to take that

step back. Yeah, Rattle and Shakin.

Rattle, excuse me? Piloted by Jaime Torres, who's

having a sneaky great meet at Ellis Park, frankly.

And so if he can get that going, I think there's a chance he has

a really, really big day on Sunday.

I'll be throwing the 1-2 and the six in my ticket here because I

simply don't want to be out of the first leg.

But I also do think if we can catch that too, Chase, for

example, and that opens up the pick 5 for a lot of money

because I think a lot of people will be landing on that 6 as a

single. Yep, absolutely.

There you go. All right.

Any other thoughts on the first race here in the juvenile?

Anybody that you know, Barry, you were talking about about St.

Player coming out of that race at Prairie Meadows.

Are you drawing a line through that one essentially?

Yes, absolutely. Just didn't get any kind of run

at all. Kind of went to the lead and and

faded. I just, I'm assuming that the

horse just didn't like that track.

I mean, he's very inconsistent. You can see his races where he

goes the lead and fades and he fades hard when he does fade.

But there's really not much speed in here.

And, and I can see a horse like that getting to the front, maybe

getting a little brave and kind of hanging around.

And we've seen stranger things happen when horses get easy

leads. Yeah, so the juvenile will be

race, excuse me, it will be race 6 on the card.

It will start that late pick five late pick 4.

When Comport loses and you have to look somewhere else, we'll

start to race 7. It's the Cowboy Jones one mile

on the dirt here. They do have a little bit of a

strange you're used to the at the shoot up at Saratoga looks

very similar there at Ellis Park going a mile.

So it's about a mile and excuse me, 1 1/2 turn race here.

This is on the dirt like I mentioned 3 and up here,

$200,000 on the line Josh and interesting 1.

You could almost rename this the what could have been stakes,

right for a lot of these horses, Tumbarumba, Cali Ostro, you

know, and and three technique those kinds of horses.

But frankly, we've got a horse in banishing in here that

frankly is a 5 year old but has really found his step this year.

Seven runs in the top two out of eight finishes this year.

Three of those wins been running at the highest levels.

Josh, it did you land on a single here as well?

I mean, in my opinion, banishing is probably one of the top,

we'll say like top ten older horses running right now.

I I, I mean that second place effort to mind frame going back

to Churchill Downs. I mean, you know, he he did

everything but win in that race. I mean, had a trouble trip and

and still, you know, almost was able to beat mind frame, who a

lot of people now are saying, Hey, maybe, maybe he's the best,

one of the best older horses we got going right now.

So, you know, I just think that banishing has been going

against, you know, just better in the spot and I think he's

going to be really tough to beat.

He's he's basically my lone a the only other horse I did take

a look at the three. This is Oscar was one that I I

looked at, you know, is coming off of two second place win or

second place finishes at Lone Star in the Sexton mile and then

at a stakes race over at Indiana grand or Horseshoe Indianapolis.

But you know, is one that has been able to find, you know, a

couple wins here and there, especially when he's able to

kind of sit really close on on what seems to be kind of slow

paces. And you know, I look at this

race and it doesn't look like we're going to get an absolute

blazing type of fractions I think up front.

So I think there is a chance that maybe this is Oscar is able

to kind of track and might be able to surprise.

He does have figures that kind of fit with the rest of this

group. But I think banishing Far in the

way is the best horse in this race.

Chase, I know you're going to try to beat Banishing here.

Yeah, I I'm going to try to beat vanishing I I disagree with the

the pace. I think this actually gets very

high because you have two horses that run about the same speed

that both need to be on the lead with the the four and the six in

this race. And sometimes whenever I I see

that kind of pace set up, I like to throw a run style at the

problem. So I used three horses here with

Tumba Rumba, who, like I said, a loves maiden pocket trip should

be getting one nice one on the rail right behind this early

speed Cagliostro. If this one takes another little

step forward, it could be a easy winner.

And then this is Oscar. I also like this would be

sitting kind of that wider stalking position and I think

could easily have first run on on those two kind of I call them

hood ornaments where like they're out there.

They're purely ornamental on the front end of the pace with with

this race. So I I was 1-2 and three,

completely agree with this is Oscar.

Yeah, the this is Oscar Angles. Interesting.

Barry Caliostro, second start back from the Arabian Peninsula.

Is that an angle from you? We're now back to North America.

We got our feet underneath us. Absolutely.

There's only three horses really that can win this race.

It's Tumba, Rumba, Cayostro and Banishing.

Banishing. I, I'm, I'm a little bit down on

I, I'm, I'm not really sure that A, this is this horse's best

distance and B that this horse is going to get a great trip.

That being said, I think Kyostro is the horse on the way up was

running really good last year. The races this year were really

kind of tough luck and I, I like the comebacker on June 29th.

It was kind of clear that they really weren't trying to win

that one. This one would probably be more

of the target than the Hashem at, at Churchill and this field

isn't that strong. I, I think Kyostro can can

finish strong is probably a better finisher than Vanishing

and and I want to see that happen on Saturday.

Barry mentions the one mile Hanson at Churchill Downs

vanishing finish second in that race behind.

We'll take it. I'm also going to include

Tumbarumba in my tickets. Part of this is what we saw in

that Hanson, but frankly, it's a little bit of what what Chase

talked about. I do think he's going to get a

good trip. I don't think, you know,

sometimes in these one mile races with these little shoots

like this, you if you're on the rail, you can get stuck.

And that seems to happen at Saratoga quite a bit, a little

less at Ellis frankly. And I do trust frankly with

Tumbarumba's running style here, I think he's going to be able to

to carve it out a little bit better.

He's still got good gate speed, so he's not going to be

overwhelmed by a Coliostro next to him who's not going to break

as well as he is. And so I think he's going to be

able to get there. Tyler's due for a big weekend at

some point. He had one that first weekend he

was back, but I think he's due for another big weekend.

And so to throw him in, he and Bryan Lynch have only won three

of their last 16 races together. So a nice percentage together.

There I have a question all right for.

Their 16. Excuse me?

Yes, Barry. So you've been to Ellis Park,

I'm assuming, yes. Is the shoot like what it looks

like in the racing form or is it slightly kind of toward the

right? It's more to the right.

Yeah. It's not as what it looks like

pronounced as Saratoga, correct. Yeah.

OK. Yeah, it's a little.

Just wanted to make sure and and not.

Similar though, but people do they get they get stuck a little

less on the rail because correct.

Yeah, It's not like Churchill where it's still angled.

Yeah, it's not like Churchill where it's slightly angled and

then they figure it out. It's more angled than that for

sure, but it's not as much as Saratoga.

That's right. Gotcha.

We still talk about it as a as a as a 1 1/2 though turn.

I mean, it is it is, you know, leaning into that thing.

You know, you still got to switch leads when you get off of

it. And so it's it's own thing for

sure. But yeah, this is who scars an

interesting one. I'm Josh.

I'm glad you brought him up as the other option here.

You know, if it were raining on Sunday, he'd be an absolute must

include in this race because of his slot form and different

things. But yeah, an interesting one for

Jordan Blair here. Edgar Morales has had a very

tough as far as wins meet at Ellis, but he's peppering the

board like crazy. You can't leave him out of any

kind of exacta or trifecta play that way.

The Derby is Race 8 down at Ellis Park on Sunday.

Louis Ribow horse racing happy hour, hanging out with you,

Chase at of Oak Lawn, Josh at Cherry Drink and of course the

Sniper. Our guy Barry Spears at Urban

Handicapper. You can find these guys,

appreciate them jumping on for a quick handicapping round table.

The Derby, like I said, is on the dirt.

It's a mile for three-year olds, $300,000 in this one, Barry.

We do get Admiral Dennis on the outside, the winner of the

Delaware Derby coming into this one and frankly an impressive

winner of the Delaware Derby. He beat Barbadian Runner, so I

don't know how good that field was winning by 3 1/2 lengths

over a horse like Barbadian Runner who couldn't win the

Federico Tessio. I'm not exactly sure how great

of a rudder he is, Barry, but Admiral Dennis can absolutely

win here. How many are you including here?

I know you're going to play pretty heavy.

Pick three at the end of the day.

Yeah, I'm going to use three in this spot.

My top pick actually is Big Boat, the seven.

I think this horse had a couple of bad runs.

You know, the February 25th, our 24th effort, this horse was 5

wide as the favorite. Just didn't get a run the next

time out, ran really, really good.

Kind of got into a duel with Baby Boat and lost that one and

then comes back off a slight layoff to win an allowance race

at Ellis. I think that sets this horse up

really, really well because I think this horse going to get a

nice trip. Big Truss didn't do so well in

the Indiana Derby, but I think this spot is a lot better and a

lot more logical for that horse. I I think a mile is probably the

best real position. Plus, on Indiana Derby Day, you

couldn't pass anybody. Anybody.

Yeah. And Big Trust didn't get the

best of runs at it because of that.

I think the bounce back is imminent in this race and then

the Four Retribution is probably sitting on a big race and I

think stretching out makes a lot of sense.

I've got a lot in here as well. Chase How?

How wide are you spreading in the Derby?

I, I'm going too deep and I think it's actually going to be

a horse that is on the lead or very close to it that wins.

So I, I, it better be a big boat.

And remember guys, the best ship is friendship because we are all

on on big. Boat.

No chalks though. Like my other horse is actually

the five master controller at at 20 to 1.

You look at that 2 back figure where it's not like a horse got

a perfect trip. You know, Barry talks about this

a lot. Whatever he's on, whatever we're

doing the show of like the the effects of a perfect trip will

really do a lot for your speed figures.

But we throw out the Indiana Derby where he was dueled out

and you see the only other run on fast dirt where the horse

hadn't had trouble. It's put up a 88 and wired the

field. Like I'd willing to take the

gamble if this one starts well and then just runs them off the

feet. Brittany Vandenberg trains she's

O for 15 and stakes would be a massive breakthrough for her to

win the Ellis Park Derby there with Master Controller, who did,

like you said, 6 1/2 furlongs dominate a maiden 100,000 Oldie

Churchill Downs get can field. But Josh, where'd you lay it in

the Derby? Man, I thought this was a fun

field. Yeah, unfortunately I have a

feeling that our 12:50 is not going to be 12:50 in this spot

because I have only one horse I'm using in this spot and it is

the seven big boat. This is basically the horse that

I'm keying the entire sequence around.

This is my wind bet. This is the horse I'm going to

do everything I possibly can to get live to.

So yeah, I, I just think that, you know, this is this horse is

going to be outside speed is going to be able to kind of, you

know, figure out what kind of trip that he's going to want,

right. Is he going to, is he going to

want to go to the lead? You know, and like I said, we

got that little elbow coming out.

So what what are we going to do there?

But he's going to have options, I think, and I love when speed

figures disagree, right, because that's when you can really,

really make you know, you can see different opinions come out

or you can have a different opinion from from the crowd,

right? If you look at DRF, right,

everyone's going to look and and granted, the seven big boat ran

a 92 last time out, right? But Admiral Dennis has got a 92

and 95 to his name. You got a 91 and big trucks

right. People are going to see those

other big figures. You look on time for him.

The seven looks like the fastest horse in the field by quite a

bit, by about four points in that last right race.

And what I love about that last race is it was here at Ellis

Park. So you got a horse that's ran

its best effort at this track. You got a bunch of these other

horses that are shipping in haven't run on this track

before. I I love big boat in here.

It's going to be a single for me and yeah, I'm I'm going to be

keying this thing and double s in and out and and in particular

in the pick 3 coming out of here.

I love the big boat. Lost to baby boat and now we're

using these boats to try to beat an Admiral.

Can't make it up. I'm nodding, which is good for

podcasting, but not good for the people who just listen to this

thing, which is about 90% of my audience.

So yes, I agree with you, Jason. It's a job.

Good job by you. You know what's what's messing

with me? Hey, by the way guys, you don't

have to hide your vices on this show.

You you don't have to hide them. It's OK.

I know you have vice. Don't hide your vices.

I. I don't have like a breakdance,

yes. You're you're, you're talking to

the boss. I'm hit the the guy smoking the

cigar. Yes, that guy.

The the thing about Admiral Dennis that is messing with me

is that Saudi Crown showed up on this day last year to run in the

RA Cowboy Jones after being overseas as like his soft spot

and he lost. He lost and Admiral Dennis is

kind of messing with me that way.

And I don't know why. I don't know if it's the Brad

Cox connection like it was with Saudi Crown and all of those

things. I think this is the opportunity

on the card to make money is if you could beat Admiral Dennis in

the Ellis Park Derby, your pick 5 is going to look a lot better.

Your pick 3, whatever you play. And so I'm including him for

sure, but I'm going to spread a little bit here.

I went 467 and eight on my ticket.

Agree about Big Charles there. Barry, I think he was never

passing a single person. I think Tyler will have him

closer to the action, as close as he was in the Indiana Derby,

excuse me, under Declan Cannon before those two kicked away.

I think loss though, and I agree about Big Bode and I thought

what you said about retribution is completely true.

If he runs anything like he did in the Chick Lane, he's got a

real shot here. The thing about Admiral Dennis

that does stand out though, if you wanted to make the case is

the Bluegrass because you go back to that race and I was

there. It was that weird Tuesday

because we had all the flooding here in Kentucky and East Avenue

ran one of the great front running races of any 3 year old

this year. Okay, he just did.

River Thames does the darn thing and finishes third 'cause that's

what River Thames does. And then behind him, of course,

and ahead of them is Bartim Square, who has now won multiple

graded stakes this year. He was right there 3 lengths

off. And so, I mean, if you're going

to make the case, it was what he did at Keeneland in the

Bluegrass, turns around First off the bench, wins the Delaware

Derby. I'm not going to get excited

about that. But he did it how he's supposed

to do it, which is by open legs and dominating a field that he

was better than. And so if you wanted to make the

case for Admiral Dennis, I think that's it.

And I would not argue with anyone that has him winning this

race on the weekend. Going to the Groupie Doll Race 9

here. I did confirm with trainer Whit

Beckman before the show. Regale the five will run in this

race and not at Saratoga. Both of his runners in races

9:00 and 10:00 will be at Ellis Park this weekend and not in New

York. Josh, we'll start with you here

in the Groupie doll, which is mile on the dirt.

This is for Phillies and Mares 3 and up.

This is the Cowboy Jones on the lady side. 200,000 in the Kitty

here. Alpine Prince is big favorite at

2 to one. She looks pretty formidable

here, Josh. Yeah, I think she is going to be

going to be kind of tough to beat and honestly, I I basically

got a Brad Cox exacta here. I think the the 1 Alpine

Princess or the 8 Impel are probably your two most likely

winners in the spot. Alpine Princess looks like the

goods coming into this spot and you know, I I on time form you

look at this race and you don't really see a a true, true

leader. I mean, Alpine Princess LED wire

to wire last time out, but I mean, it was just kind of a, you

know, a kind of a slower pace of it was the best, was much the

best horse in that race. So sometimes those horses just

get the lead and they just go. But Impel has shown some speed,

you know, especially routing. So, you know, I, I do think that

basically the one and the 8, they're going to go to the lead

and one of them's going to win. I can't really differentiate

between the two. I, I know Tyler gets up on the

one and Tyler obviously with at this time of year is, is the go

to guy in Kentucky, but Flo's also kind of Brad Cox's first

call guy. So, you know, I, I, I couldn't

really, you know, decide between the two.

So I'm going to use both of them equally.

I got the 1 Alpine Princess and the 8 Impel.

One of them is probably going to go to the lead and we'll see if

they go wire to wire, but if not the the other one's going to win

I think. Very for you.

I know you're using the one in Alpine Princess as well.

You got a a different long shot though that you'd like to use on

yours and and not a long shot, but a horse that I cannot figure

out. Explain to us why Pagal can win

here. I I think this horse likes this

distance and is going to be forwardly placed.

I, I really do not like Impel at all.

I think that horse is just completely phony, just can't win

races against good horses and, and this is a good field and,

and I think it's just a little bit too good for her.

That being said, I think, you know, kind of Alpine Princess

and Pigali will run 1-2 pretty much around the whole track,

forcing the hand of Alpine Princess to go to the lead

because of the rail draw. And I think that was probably

the best draw they could have got in this race.

I I think she dominates this field to be honest.

Chase, I know you are going very, very thin in this one.

Who you got on top? You, you give me what looks like

it's going to be a loose horse setting soft fractions.

We're assembling the flococks. So I I'm all in, I'm single on

the 8. These are the kind of horses

that I love to single. They're maybe just a little bit

off the radar. Man, okay, so.

They're a lot off the radar now. Not.

Be unfortunately so. Barry cut his power over there.

Is that what it is, Barry? Yeah.

After I slandered Impel, he singles.

Yeah, there you go. The only horse you guys haven't

mentioned that I'm absolutely throwing in my tickets is taxed

the seven here who almost won the Dang La Troyeta gets raging

seas. So I don't know why we're just

tossing this horse aside other than her record at a mile where

she's 2 for seven. But frankly came back in the

floor to lead a mile and an eighth.

That's just too far for this horse and was never going to

catch Thorpedo Anna on that day. But if you go back before that,

didn't win a decent allowance at Oakland Park.

Going 6 furlongs. Has to stretch out a little bit

here, but like I said, has one at this distance before.

Ran in the groupie doll last year behind Pagal, who won this

thing, but Ryan was right there. Her fancy and Pagal were in a

three-way before it eventually just fell apart.

Poor Barry has got Ellis Park Derby on his hat now.

That's not what I was going for with any of this kind of stuff.

Let me see if I can get that overlay off of your face.

There we go I'm not sure I don't care about you a little too

much. Let's get Chase back in here.

There he is now I'm putting that overlay back up.

There we go. All right, so.

So I do think it's funny chase you, Barry says Impel's a bomb,

and then you single Impel and then you lose power.

So I think Barry's right. Is that how this works?

Probably, yeah. It's usually about usually about

how that wraps up. So all of us do Haiti cab with

Barry. That's how that goes.

That's exactly right. We're hanging out here on the

horse racing Gap PR Barry Spears, Jay Assassin and of

course Josh Rodriguez. Appreciate the guys jumping in.

Last race of the day will be the Autoban Oaks.

This is exactly what you think for three-year old.

Philly's going 7 furlongs on the dirt, $200,000 on the line here.

Barry, you get to go first in the closer here and then we'll

talk through your pick three because you're going super

aggressive in the final. Yeah, this is where things get a

little wacky, at least for me. I thought this race had a lot of

speed on the outside. So like the 12, the 11, the 10,

the 9, the 8, maybe even the six, the five, they're all going

to be lining up trying to get a piece of this speed.

Even the three Ruby's Ghost and and I think the best closer in

the race is going to win this race, which is the 2 Sturgeon

Moon, who again another one coming out of that Indiana Derby

day that just didn't get a chance to run.

You know, ran third behind Klikwo, who's who's pretty good

that day, but aided by the track.

And since then, this horse has come back to put together a nice

string of workouts on July 19th, a nice one July 27th, and then a

bullet on August 3rd at at Churchill Downs.

Should be flying late and I expected him to get the job done

at at least at 12:50. There you go, straight to Moon.

Of course. We just saw that one in person,

trained by Paulo Lobo, running in that Indiana Oaks, the Grade

3 Clique O. It was a serious Philly.

Speaking of horses, that might be really good in the

second-half. Kleco could be one of those for

sure, Josh. As we look at the Autobid Oaks,

though, I know this is a race where you're going to be

spreading a little bit. Yeah, my kind of opinion in this

race is I I'm not a huge fan of vodka with A twist in this race.

I think. I think this is a horse that

does her best running two turns and and granted, right, you look

at some of the two turn races and you see a lot of you see a

lot of seconds, but I, I just think that those races have

looked a little bit better. I mean, really no excuse.

Last time out as or last time on dirt as a seven to five favorite

in that race. And yeah, you know, I'm, I'm

just off on that horse. I'm you know, I do see a lot of

pace in this race, but I don't know the often times I I I think

I see a Sprint that's going to melt down and it doesn't happen.

Chase can attest to that as as the the aforementioned loves the

bet closers, but I think the 6th Princess proud is kind of the

speed of the speed in this race. So that horse has got to be on

my tickets because, you know, even if you get, you know, three

horses kind of fighting for the lead sometimes, Hey, it's just

the fastest horse puts the other ones away and maybe, maybe be

able to hang on and it's definitely got figures.

I think that fit in this spot the the seven Mandela's kind of

a more of a mid pack type horse and has one closing off of semi

fast fractions. So I think this is 1, you know,

closed in that 8 bells, you know, kind of clunked up for 4th

there. But I I think that was just much

better in that race than what what she's facing here.

Broke. It's broke her maiden at Oak

Lawn closing, which isn't always easy to do going 6 furlongs

there. So I do think there's some

talent here with the seven. I think also the 9 impulse by

the the 8 bells, the she was given a very, very improved time

form figure due to the the pace that she set in that race.

And, you know, I'm just curious if maybe with Tyler aboard,

they're able to unable to ration his horse a little bit better.

I I think her two year old stakes race at Churchill Downs

showed that she can rate a bit off of a pace and and close in.

So I, I do think the 9 impulse buy here with Tyler Gafflion

aboard is, is worth a look. And then the 12 is the other

kind of speed horse in here for, for wit Beckman.

And yeah, this is just another horse that I think, you know, it

has been able to kind of sit off some paces.

You look back at at that Tampa race, that stakes race as a 2

year old, that was also kind of a a day where the, the IT was

just kind of a highway out there and, and was able to kind of

close pass. A couple horses finished second

in that race. So I think this horse has got a

little bit more versatility. And I mean, you see a horse

that's that's running the Miss Preakness in the victory ride,

which are, you know, two of the the better three-year old Philly

stakes races. I I think just getting a little

bit of class relief here in this spot.

So 679 and 12 for me. Yeah, the six to me is really

interesting in here. Chase, I know you're going 4

deep. A horse that hasn't been

mentioned yet that you have on your handicapping, if I'm

remembering this correctly. Never mind, they've all been

mentioned. Go ahead, though.

You know what? Actually make the case for

Rocket with A twist. Why do you think?

And look, this is 1/6 finishes in the money, but none of them

wins and seven runs over fast. Go Chase.

Why do we think she can get it done here other than, I mean,

she's obviously talented. So you have to take into like

consideration the overall structure of my ticket and why I

had bucketed with A twist here. I've gone 2 deep, 3 deep, 2

deep, singled and in the process beat comport, beat vanishing,

beat Admiral Dennis. So I'm not going to lose by just

leaving that horse off. There are others that I really

like better, like the like the two that you guys mentioned.

Also the seven Mandela and Holly Grove.

You know, I I think I would want to jump off of a bridge into

fire if I just didn't win this because I didn't have vodka with

A twist on there. No, that's fair.

That makes sense to me. I don't know.

Did someone talk about Princess Proud coming in for Bill Mott

and Jaime Torres, the six horse here?

I know Josh mentioned including this one.

This is a this is an into mischief candy ride mayor

back-to-back wins at six furlongs.

Highest level at Churchill comes back beats winners at in first

asking easily frankly at Ellis Park last outgoing 6 furlongs.

We're only going a furlong further and this is a taller

into mischief. I think the step forward's right

there for that one, the six to one price, I don't know that

we'll get 6 to 1, but I think 9 to 2's probably we'll bottom out

on that 1. So for me, makes a lot of sense

on an include. I'm 4 wide in this one.

I have by far the most expensive ticket, but I'm also going to

this thing. So this is I just spend more.

I spend more money when I go to these things.

So there you go. Let's go around the table.

We'll go to Josh first. You've got a pick 5 here that I

wanted to share and then I know you sent me a long shot as well,

Josh, that you like in Race 8. Let's start there.

Race 8, of course, is the Derby. You think a win bet on the seven

in big boat is good, a good play there?

Is this like a win place kind of bad for you or you just going

all in? No, this is a it's a strict win

bet. So basically the way I'm kind of

keying my day here is around that, that seven horse, right?

So I, you know, I put the pick 5 ticket up there, which obviously

has got the the two singles, which are the absolute chalk in

those first two races. I sometimes don't like playing

those types of tickets where I'm like I see 3 chalks and instead

I'll probably put more money into a pick three, starting with

the seven in leg 3 and then going to the one eight to the

67912. But really that 7 is kind of the

key to the entire sequence for me.

So I'll probably have double S into the seven, maybe even a

cold 657 pick three. Obviously it's a $4.00 ticket

that we have up on the screen which is 657-186-7912.

But really for me it's it's that third leg, that seven.

That's a win bet. I want to get into this race, I

want to get out of this race and if that seven wins, I want to

make sure that I make as much money as possible.

Barry, your single is in the last race.

It is the 2 horse for people. Just a reminder, it is Sturgeon

Moon coming out of the Indiana Hoax.

The Goldenrod before that, of course, in the Oaks.

At the end of the day, you're going to try a pick 3 here.

You're going to hammer your opinions here, $5 pick three.

Only 30 bucks though. Three horses, two horses, 1.

The old, the old Funnel, as my buddy Jose Contreras calls that

out at LaSalle in the first race there.

So you're starting in race 8 with the Derby itself, 4-6 and

seven, trying to beat Admiral Dennis in a 10 to one single at

the end here. Boy, you're really trying to

score, aren't you? You know, I, I, I really just

think that Alpine Princess is going to get bet down a lot and

that would probably even out a lot of those, you know, the big

boat sturgeon moon combination. But in between that, you know,

if we can get Sturgeon Moon, obviously that will seal the

deal and make this worth playing.

That's the really only way I I could have played something like

this because I'm I'm agreeing with Josh and pretty much

everybody else that that vodka with A twist is real shaky as

the two to one favorite on the on the rail in that race.

And the cutback with Sturgeon Moon makes a whole lot of sense,

especially coming from, you know how how I mapped out his his

last couple of races, especially the one at Indiana Downs or

Indiana Grand or Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Or IGN. They just, yeah, it was just the

horse was just up against the track and and I, I can put a

line right through that one and honestly, the horse didn't run

all that badly. I think getting to this spot

makes a lot of sense and we'll get a a better track hopefully

on Saturday. Shut up.

Happy Thursday, good to see you. Thanks for being here.

We go to we go to our guy, we go to our guy, Chase.

Chase has got to pick five put together as well.

And Chase, you also sent me over a win bet.

So starting in race six, man, you're going to get aggressive

with a win bet here on the 2 horse Shake and Rattle that is

in the juvenile race. Talked about that horse earlier

in the program. And I agree with you.

I think of the long shots on the day, 8 to one there.

I'm with you, Desormo and Torres.

I think that's a good play. Yeah, and with my pick 5 ticket,

I mean, if this thing goes comport banishing Admiral

Dennis, it's not going to pay anything.

So like, let's dream big, let's reach for the stars, you know,

then we'll land around the moon or something.

The poster says yeah. Yeah, you're like the cat in the

Hang in There Kitty. You know, poster from 1978.

That's you, buddy. Chase's pick 5 starts in race

6-1 and two, then 1235 and seven in race 8, singling the 8IN race

9. So let's go back to that again,

to the Chase. So in Race 9, you're you're

going with Impel, who Barry told you was a bum.

Yeah, but I mean, he could tell me he's a bum, but I smells

loose horse. And when I smells loose horse, I

I throw caution to the wind and I usually just jump onto it

because I mean, you can try to make sense of it, like the horse

doesn't fit speed figures wise and everything.

But when you have these extreme pace scenarios, sometimes you

just have to open up and say this horse could get a perfect

trip and and could go all the way.

And for me, it just feels like a good way to get, you know,

skinny through the the last leg and where I could add more

horses. My pick 5, which I should

probably put on the screen now, ad banner, there we go is $144.

I'm 3243 and four wide in this one.

I think that we're gonna get three expected winners in the

sequence of five. I'm hoping to essentially hit

some 28 to one or something like that as part of the sequence.

1-2 and six in the opening race there, one and five in the

second leg, 4678 in the third one, 7-8 in the fourth leg and

1679 in the finale. For me, they're hoping to hit

that pick 5 on Sunday at Ellis Park, which is also college day.

It is discounted hot dog day. How many hot dogs should I have

on a full Sunday at the track? Like what is if they're a

dollar, Like what is the what is the play for track hot dogs on a

sun? Thank you, Barry, you get it.

What is the play? Easy sticks, Half dozen.

Man, oh, I'm an old man that might.

Hurt a lot? Yeah, might hurt.

How many? Well, like maybe 3 maybe. 3 is

probably to play, I think 3 or. Four what what what your

accoutrement like? Is it just straight up some

mustard or like some rella? Loaded dog then.

No, they're, they're pretty. They're pretty straightforward.

Our friends at the HBPA sponsor every Sunday.

So you get a discount on these things.

Josh, What? How many how many dogs are you

putting down? I I got a real funny hot dog

story about just how many I've eaten in one sitting.

I don't know if we got time for it now or was bringing.

It. So when my family, no, my

parents both from Mexico, right. So we used to go to Mexico every

year as I was growing up. And so I was probably like 8 or

9 and maybe 10, like no older than 10.

And we were going to like the State Fair, basically in Mex, in

Mexico, where my dad's hometown, they sold double hot dogs loaded

with bacon. Guacamole and tomato, like the

thing. I mean, they were big double hot

dogs. Huge. 2 lbs.

Of yeah. And so obviously the the dollar

much stronger than the peso. I think at the time it was

something like $1.00 was equal to like like like 10, like 8-7

or eight pesos, something like that.

I forget what it was maybe, but but basically they were selling

these things for a like a dollar and my parents had given me like

20 bucks to go to the fair, right?

So they were selling these double hot dogs, all that stuff.

No kidding. You I ate I think seven of these

things. So it was 14 hot dogs loaded

with that. And the funniest part is like,

like, I barely remember this because I was young, but like,

my, my family loves telling the story.

They're like the people who ran the stand were just looking on

in amazement as this American kid just kept on eating these

damn hot dogs. They couldn't.

They couldn't believe. I mean, yeah, it was just, it

was like, what was it? The, the San Antonio.

San Antonio, Chuck, show them hot the hot dogs, you know, with

the two hands, Like, yeah, that was me.

That was me. Two hand in the hot dogs.

Oh man. Cultural cultural visit from

Josh on behalf of America putting away 7 glizzies.

I love it That's a good job by you.

I like. It the glizzy gobbler.

I'm. Too old so San Luis San Luis

supposed to see which is like central Mexico OK cool but yeah

now now no way man now it's like I have I have two hot dogs and

I'm just like OK I'm I can't eat for the next like 2 days so.

I had something like that at the fair and it just made my pulse

sound like sand going through my ears like afterwards.

Now you get heartburn. Oh, bad.

All right, Well, that was story time with Josh.

We went inside the mind of Barry you.

Don't want that and. Chase had to log off.

I think that's a perfect summation of this episode.

So there you go. Playing this weekend as well.

Any other spots? Arlington Million?

You guys got any colonial takes? Yeah, don't bet integration that

horse will finish second again. How about that?

I like that answer. All right, Chase got a big take

on Colonial. I I'm staying away from this.

I, I don't like that Barry keeps putting me in this position

where say things like I'm against integration, like I

don't want that clip floating around on the Internet anywhere

you go say those things. Funny thing is in that race in

the Arlington Million, I like a long shot in Runaway Storm, who

ran on Indiana Derby Day. Yeah, you know how I feel about

that track. So horses coming off of that

track I'm I'm going to try to take a shot with.

We'll see what happens, but Runaway Storm might get out

there winging it for a little while and could hold on.

I mean, integration just doesn't like to win.

Grand Sonata 8 to one. That's my play there.

There you. Go no, I think that's that's

where we're going to land. Josh, you got a big take on

Colonial this weekend. I'll probably have most of the

money going through Fort Washington.

I think Fort Washington's a real, real solid horse.

Hasn't really done much wrong. You know, I I crossed the line

through that that that Churchill Wise Dan, just because it's just

a weird race, you know, or weird track.

The Churchill turf, even after years after they've remodeled

it. Like you either like it or you

don't. I feel like it's at least

holding together now and there's not just chunks of turf flying

everywhere. But still, I think it's just

kind of a weird turf track. It's it's almost Kentucky Downs

esque where you like it or you don't like the track.

So I, I tend to throw, I'll throw that race out and, and I

think you got a horse that's, that's run a couple of good

races here this year and it's. Not like Fort Washington was bad

in the race either, dude. I mean, 4th by length of 3/4 is

not the end of the world behind brilliant birdie and wagenhouse.

I mean, that's just not a bad finish that one.

I wouldn't hold against it either.

That horse is always there. I'm I'm kind of the same

opinion, Josh, where there's I essentially in these, especially

in these longer turf route races, if a horse is there every

time that's a horse, I always throw in and Fort Washington's

one of those horses for sure. So there you go.

My again, my interview with Jason Beam is up right now at

the Horse Racing Happy Hour Podcast Network.

Wherever you get your podcasts, you can go find that.

That was from Wednesday. I think we talked about horses

for about two minutes and talked food for like 15 and like

visiting ballparks and that kind of stuff.

So very Jason Beam conversation. Yeah, So there you go.

For Barry, for Chase and for Josh.

I'm Louis Revo. This has been another rendition

of the Horse Racing Happy Hour. Gentlemen, please pub the things

you're doing. Josh, I know you're going

tonight. Yep.

On what show? Oh, sorry, at wrong under score

lead I heard the music going. I'm like, am I supposed to keep

going? At wrong.

At wrong under score lead on Twitter.

On the wrong lead on YouTube. Yeah, we'll be live in a little

over an hour. Talking about.

No, we're gonna be doing Colonial, so we're gonna be

talking Colonial Downs. You know, you said, you said

every single person's gonna be covering Saratoga.

We're gonna cover the two stakes at Saratoga, but we're gonna do

the late pick five at Colonial Downs.

So we'll take a look at Arlington Million.

RIP Arlington Park, my home track.

So. RIP Indy.

I was there for the last one for sure.

I'm million day chase. Tell everybody about notorious

OTP. You guys just dropped your look

at Saturday at Saratoga. Yeah, check that out.

Replays on your YouTube, subscribe to that, turn on your

notifications or listen to wherever your pod.

So we got your Saturday covered with how to approach it with

$100 budget. We'll be back bright and early

tomorrow morning, tomorrow morning doing our best bets for

the Delmar card on Friday, So check that out.

We got a special guest joining us, too.

Barry, you got anything going tomorrow afternoon?

Yeah, a little bit so so Cal Saturday going on and I did over

at DRF with Gino, the late Take 5 at Colonial.

That's why I got an opinion on Runaway Storm.

But yeah, check that out. I'll be around all weekend.

Let's do it. Cheesy music and cheesy men.

This has been the horse racing happy hour.

Thanks for hanging out with us on an August 7th edition of the

program. Catch you next week.