A quick, handicapping only segment with Barry.
Ellis Park Saturday | Barry Spears
Full Transcript
That's what they tell me at least.
Welcome in impromptu edition of the Horse Racing Happy Hour.
When it's impromptu, you know it means Barry Spears.
My name is Linda Revo. Thanks for hanging out with us
tonight. We're going to go through the
late Pick 4 at Ellis Park on a Saturday.
This is also part of the Kentucky Racing Spotlight.
So if you listen on Friday, we appreciate you hanging out with
that. Thanks to my guest in the
previous segment, Barry, how about this?
We're going to be doing radio live during a podcast.
My guest today was Nick Lynch, sister trainer of course, for
his dad. Brian talked about lots of
things. And one of the horses we talked
about, Barry, was one that I'm very excited to see return to
the track. And his name is Owen Almighty
and we saw him win the Tampa Bay Derby earlier this year.
We we saw that very public back and forth between Brian Lynch,
of course, the trainer and the Flying Dutchman folks were like,
no, no, he can get the distance. But I was like, Pat Day Mile,
how about that? And then they ran him in the
Derby turning for home. He's totally live berries right
there at the top of the stretch. It'll lead and he holds on for
fifth. Man, I frankly in a 20 horse,
19, I guess this year, 19 horsefield #1 good check in the
Derby #2 lots of really good horses haven't cracked the top
five in the Derby. And so all the things I'm
excited to see him back there talking maybe 7 furlongs to
Charlestown, maybe running back up at Saratoga again, I'm not
sure, but I'm just excited to stay back.
I think he's going to be a really nice horse moving forward
and said he's going to run us a four year old, which is awesome.
That's that's totally awesome, but 11 embarrassing fun fact is
I introduced my family to my Australian accent because of
Bryan Lynch and Owen Almighty. I did an invitation after he won
at at Tampa. At Tampa, Sure.
And, and I said basically Owen Almighty in the Pat de mile in
my Bryan Lynch accent and my wife and child did not
understand a word I said. And then I played the I played
the the clip of him saying it. And then they were like, oh, OK,
I get it now. I was like, I have a good one.
I I don't know if I'll pull it out here.
I. I please don't.
I always laugh at these. Please don't pull anything out.
The the thing I always laugh about with these is, you know,
the owners want to go to the Derby.
And I'm not mad at the owners for wanting to go to the Derby,
But it is funny to hear the, the mental gymnastics of a trainer
who says, yeah, we're going to the mile and then all of a
sudden they're going temporal logs.
You know, it's all it's all like, hey, Barry, I need to
switch Wi-Fi so you can go ahead and react to me making fun of
Jock. Excuse me, jockey of owner and
trainer situations, but man, frankly that 5th place, that's
as good as we could expect from any sprinter, frankly, in Derby.
Yeah, I I don't really, I can't knock him.
I mean, he he really ran good. I think he's a really good
horse. He's a little one way as far as
his running style, unless he's matured over this break and he
can show the ability to rate that would be excellent.
But we'll see. I mean, I'm excited.
I mean, it's just adds to the older horse division, which is
very, very strong right now. So that's right, you know that I
hope that trend continues where we get these good 3 year olds
turning the good 4 year olds to good five year olds and and keep
that ball rolling. I also think we're karting more
races at a mile on the dirt now that we have in in previous
year. So horses like Owen Almighty
going forward can have a lot more opportunity, whether it be
1 turn to Churchill or a turn and 1/2 at Ellis, what have you
moving forward as well. So yeah, I really enjoyed having
Nick on. I appreciate him jumping on
short notice here on the Kentucky Racing Spotlight.
Of course, also the horse racing happy hour.
Barry Spears, Lou Rebeau hanging out with you.
Late pick for Saturday at Elis Park.
We'll start with Race 7 here on the card.
It's a climber and we are going according to the form.
It's made optional 50,000 personal, 44,000 mile on the
turf course here, Barry at Ellis Park.
Tough one here, I thought. And probably the race where you
and I are both going to spread the most in the late pitfall.
Yeah, this is a real tough race. I mean, anytime you have maidens
going a mile on the turf for the first time, doesn't matter what
age they are, it's always going to be chaos.
Typically, unless there's a, you know, there's sometimes you get
a horse that's that's very well meant from a big barn.
But we don't have that kind of situation here, thankfully.
Yeah, no, that's exactly right. You know, like I said, mile on
the turf here. Barry, where'd you land?
On top, at least. I think on top I would go with
#8 tearing up my heart. This horse really didn't get a
chance to run for Brad Cox first time out at Ellis on July 5th.
You know, was was slow to begin with.
Got checked and really didn't have a shot.
Brad Cox's horses do a lot better second time out anyway.
I'm a little kind of put back that he that he put Jaime Torres
on his horse, but he's been riding great so.
Well, and everybody's out of town, man.
It's King's great day and it's I mean, there's just everybody's
out of. Town That's that's true and and
you know Brad likes to spread it around anyway, so I'm I'm it's
not too concerning, but it's just a little bit different.
I mean he's only written form, you know a few times, but I
don't think that's going to matter.
Usually his horses do all the talking and I think this horse
has a good shot. It's interesting 'cause he does
have Edgar Morales aboard Alta Ave. who both of us will have in
our Pick 4S. First timer worked really well
from the gate the other day at Ellis Park.
But this debut at a mile thing like if you wanted to try to
find a, you know, a chink in the Arbor of of Brad Cox, this is
the under 20% angle. Yeah, 19, right?
But this I, I, this is never an accident with him as far as
placement of these kinds of horses.
You know, it's a Tacitus. We're on the turf here out.
We're going that mile over the two turns.
I think it's never an accident when he's trying to do that with
two year olds for sure. Look, this is a guy who's
incredible with two year olds to 26%.
And so I'm going to include that one as well in my late pick four
at Ellis Park on Saturday. Barry Spears Luger Beau hanging
out with you here. Crossover horse racing happy
hour of course, the Kentucky Racing Spotlight Audi FPS 680
and 105.7. Pick three does start in Race 8.
A $32,000 claimer here with a $46,000 purse going a mile and
an eighth. If you are not familiar with
Ellis Park, that means that you're starting at the finish
line. It is the same round as it is at
Saratoga. Again, running for 46,000 in
here, a wide open one according to the morning line maker,
except that Hey boss here comes in at 5:00 to 2:00.
The 8 horse here. Barry, will you be including the
Tom Amos trainee in your? That is a negative my friend.
No chalk zone to be. Honest, why are you tossing?
Hey boss, let's start. The horse has every right to win
a race like this. I just think there's a lot more
class wise than what this horse has been facing previously.
And this might be a a real true test.
And I don't want a horse that's getting a a a class test as the
favorite, you know, unless they really tower over this field,
which this horse does not. And I think there's there's
other ways to go. Yeah, I agree with you that
there are other spots to look in here.
I'll be using three different horses as well, including the
seven right next to him in Winston Wolf.
Rocco gets the ride for Von Hamel.
That's a combination we talk about all the time, Barry.
You know that this is what 2 back I thought looked really
good over dirt at turf at Churchill Downs.
Excuse me, but we're talking about horse only one four times
in his career. Two.
One of those is on the turf with a second place finish as well.
The last time we saw this horse on the turf was at Ellis Park
going a mile and an eighth in a good second place doing that
last August. I actually like the move back to
turf here. This was one they tried to move
back to turf in January at Fairgrounds, got taken off, gets
claimed by Tom Amos. He's been running this one on
dirt. I'd love, love, love, love them
trying to stay on the dirt here with this 1/2 for 15 lifetime.
I think there's a chance at least with those six times
hitting the board that this one will get us some value, at least
in here, Barry. But who are you gonna use
instead Instead of Hey boss? I I like the six.
What's up, Doc? Quite a bit here.
This horse was transferred Barnes from Chris Hartman to
Riley Mott, which is kind of a lateral move.
I, I, I guess there's, I don't think there's any drop off in,
in training styles or anything like that there.
This horse was running good at Oak Lawn over the winter when it
was really tough, especially early in that meet.
One almost won a race there in December, 1, one in January,
which is kind of in the thick of it, and then tailed off a little
bit. Got beat by a horse that's in
this race, Hay strike before a layoff since March.
Came back off of that layoff at Ellis going the same mile
distance and got beat by oh, I'm sorry, came back at the mile
distance, they're going a mile and an eighth.
Got beat by a good horse or a notoriously good horse and
golden glider and also finished in front of a horse named Maina
who's pretty decent as well. I think class wise this horse
fits very, very well. Just needs a trip.
There's not too much speed. So I think this horse could be
even closer up to the pace and they were last time since they
were hung out on the 10 spot last time.
A little bit of post relief gets it done here.
I I I like the six quite a bit. If people are trying to remember
the name Hayes Strike that he mentioned in passing Didbury,
that was a horse we saw on the Derby trail in 2023.
Obviously still running these days will give it his best from
the outside there at Excuse Me at Turfway at Ellis Park.
Barry, are you including Hey Strike in your handicapping at
all? Absolutely.
I know this horse had a couple of bad runs.
The last one notably at Ellis on July 20th, just didn't get
involved, was way out wide and and just was never involved.
I, I can see this horse turning the tables back because of the
fact that he's with his friends again.
I, I think the the 40,000 level or at least last time, you could
just put a whole line through that last race.
This is where this horse needs to be, you know, just needs to
work out a little bit of trip, but has the class and and the
kind of running style to win this race.
Interesting to see if he wants to get back to the distance as
well. He is over 5 at the distance.
But frankly, like, like you were saying when he was earlier on in
his career in that Kenny Mcpeak barn, they thought a lot of him
going further and frankly, he's a connect colt, right or good
gelding in this case. And so clearly they think the
distance can be there. Like you said, wasn't great last
time out before that ran on the turf.
So hopefully gets back to what he wants to do in this spot.
The late double will start up with race nine, one of those
$102,000 races in an allowance at Ellis Park going a mile
through the chute there on the dirt.
This is for three-year olds, Phillies and mares and up who
have number one of a race other than their maiden races.
Essentially a non 2 lifer race here. 8 to 5 on Lemon zest here.
Barry, how do we feel about lemon zest at 8:00 to 5:00?
We don't want to make anything with lemon zest on Saturday, I
can guarantee you that. I mean, no lemon drop martinis,
none of that kind of stuff. Here, no lemon at all.
Come on. This is the happy hour.
Come on. OK.
Nope, Nope, too sour too. Sour.
Oh man, Berry likes the sugar. That's bear.
What about? Who are you going to try to beat
Lemon Sespa? The horse I really like is the 7
Colonial Rose. I know this horse has some speed
and this is sort of a speed challenge race.
There's not much in it. I think, you know, Julian Leperu
is very, very good at getting horses out and in the front.
He he's nursed so many leads I've seen, whether it's at
Saratoga or at Churchill or Kentucky Downs.
I mean, he he does it a lot when he's when he's aboard horses.
And this fits that kind of description.
They claimed this horse. Norm Cassie claimed this horse
back in April at Keeneland and ran this horse on the slop at
Churchill and won in a good field and then at Saratoga July
27th against our Liberty Bell and Coquito who were razor sharp
even though Colonial Rose was the favorite in that race.
Funny enough, I I like playing beaten favorites when they come
in under the radar. It's a little bizarre that
there's they're, you know, shipping this horse back and
forth from New York, but. Yeah.
I I'll take it because this is a a decent spot, a horse that
that'll probably be a decent price and getting the trip that
they want. So that that those are like the
three elements right there that tell me that this horse is going
to run well. Highest speed figure, odd dirt
of her career was in fact at this distance of 74 there in
the, excuse me, in the the buyer figure.
Should be interesting to see if she can get back to that.
But you're right, last three runs are at Keeneland Churchill
in Saratoga. Last recorded workout for that
horse was in mid-july at Saratoga.
So interesting to see Colonial Rose make the trip back here to
Kentucky to run at Ellis Park in this condition.
I'm short and this is my Brad Cox race.
I'm going two and six here. I will use the 2 lemon zest.
I'm pro lemon zest, unlike Barry who's very anti lemon zest.
I'll go sharp smile as well. Coming off a little bit of a
layoff here. This was one of Brad Cox's
attempted folks horses this year.
It's a daughter, a practical joke.
It's a softer spot for her to land in, but she ran in the
Butcher last stop. But before that was really good
in the Busanda in January at Aqueduct.
Just didn't quite get there behind my Sharona and Running
Away who ended up winning that race.
But then he throws her in the Bush of her head.
We saw Drexel Hill, who ran a a bag up race in the Kentucky Oaks
itself, win that one by a bunch of lengths.
And frankly, I don't think anybody was going to beat that
field that day. And certainly Sharp Smile was
not part of that. She gets Lasix for the first
time as well, which I really like in this spot for her.
And Brad Cox off the layoff does hit at 23%.
Do you give Sharp Smile a spot here?
Absolutely, just because of the fact that this horse has ran in,
you know, steaks company. This is definitely some class
relief and should run better. I I mean, I'm not really too,
too keen on our chances to win because there's a lot of
question marks there, but trusting Brad Cox and where he
places his horses, you would think that this one out of the
two would definitely be in the mix.
I mean, lemon Zest has shown potential, but it's it's hard
for me anyway to take a horse like that just off a maiden win.
I know the the fig was high, but you know, at 8:00 to 5:00 you
got to be better than that. I mean, at least have more races
and more to go off of just than that one race.
I, I mean, certainly can win, but I'm going to be against
that. Yeah, I like 2 by the way, with
sharp smiles. So the two and the six are the
Brad Cox trainees in Race 9 here.
What I like too, is he moved her to Ellis, right?
What, when he decided she was going to get back on the work
tab, he moved her to Ellis. And so she's been working there
and frankly, not quickly, but no one's been working quickly at
Ellis Park. That's what's interesting,
actually. So the work times are never that
fast. And so she's in the top
quartile, essentially top 25% of what she's doing that day,
whether it's at 5 or 4 furlongs. But oftentimes it looks like
it's not very fast compared to say, what's happening at
Churchill or at the training center, what have you.
I think she's working just fine. Edgar.
Alice gets them out here and by the way, batting 1000, Edgar
Morales and Brad Cox one for one.
How about that? We'll include those two in our
tickets on a Saturday. The closer will be race 10 Barry
$16,000 Claver or not, 2 lifers mile in the 16th on the turf.
By the way, folks, if you want to fill a starting gate in in
horse racing, make the conditions this simple.
Here's the claim price, here's how many times you could have
won. Here's the distance, here's the
surface. We're done here.
That's the easiest way to fill these races.
And guess what? We got 10.
Barry, where did you land in the closer?
Because I think you're going aggressive here.
I landed on #8 Catalina Crush. This horse is is actually
stretching out from a couple of five furlong efforts at Lone
Star. But this is a this is quite a
bit of class relief and I think the stretch out won't bother
this horse at all. Catalina Cruiser was a huge
horse that like to kind of go long and, and, and had some
speed and this horse has that. Not to mention the buyer figures
are better than everybody else's.
I, I, you know, the only question mark is the distance
and I don't think that's a problem.
He ran a mile on the turf at Canterbury, almost broke his
maiden then. So I, I don't think the distance
is the problem. The two sprints to a stretch out
makes a lot of sense in a race that's sort of challenge.
As far as as contenders go, I I don't really see too much in
here. Atlantic Dancer might be tough,
but not really a turf horse. So we're going to see some some
positioning here. I'm not so sure that we'll get
that 4 to 1. I think we're.
Actually, I agree with it. Yeah, I agree.
I I think we're looking at probably 5:00 to 2:00 on that
horse. I think you're probably right
about that. I think there's another
interesting horse in here. I'm going to use Atlantic Dancer
because of something you mentioned earlier, Barry, that
we haven't talked about, Rafael Bay, Ronald sticking around for
the day, right? And, and there's a chance that
with some people out of town that he's the kind of guy that
can pick up 3-4 kind of wins on a card.
And I think he can close it here with a horse of the talent at
least of an Atlantic Dancer. Jason Cook, of course, moving
this one to the turf. I think Fountain Run on the
inside is really interesting. Sophie Doyle gets them out here
for Animea and we see those two together very often in Indiana,
where this one broke its maiden last out ninth race lifetime.
Before that, they tried her at Colonial and and and Horseshoe
and Gulfstream and all kinds of different places.
They tried her on the synthetic, all kinds of things.
She's already run this distance 6 times on the turf.
She does have to win 2/3 as well, including a third in a
maiden 32 at Horseshoe Indianapolis.
Speed all matches up all the time, all the things.
She ran a a style that we last saw in a maiden special at
Horseshoe Indianapolis when she was in the Pletcher barn for a
race. And that is a pressing style.
I think she can do that again here, Barry.
So the the the the rail position to me less of an issue.
I think she's going to have to make her run anyway.
But she's a daughter of unhappy. We've seen these actually
translate to the turf OK as well throughout his stud career.
And so I think the price at 12 to 1, and I think you're going
to get every bit of it by the time you get to the gate is
really, really a good number. And I think that Sophie could
pilot this one to a win in the finale.
Barry's pick four nice and skinny here.
Look at you. Look at you being skinny with a
pick 418 bucks here. Barry in race 7 is 4 wide, 378
and 10. Then in race 8 he has the three
6:00 and 9:00 and then in race 9367 he will close with a single
in race 10 with the 8 horse. So there you go, 18 bucks on
Barry's ticket. How well confident we feeling
about the pick four there, Barry?
18 to get you 500. We're in it.
Gone, let's go, let's go. I am much more expensive than
Barry, $45.00 for my pick 4 here.
I've got five horses in the first leg, 347810, so we are
only different in that. I added the four.
I'm 378 in the second leg. My Brad Cox race is race 9, the
two and the six and then I'll go 3 wide in the final.
Hopefully we get Sophie home in the last one. 1-2 and eight in
that race, $45.00. We get Sophie home.
We're talking talking to G, we're talking Sizzler.
You understand me? Barry Spears.
More than that are. Talking Sizzler, you understand
me? Let's go, Sophie.
We're going to Sizzler together. If you get.
How about that? Hey, enjoy the stakes in Ellis
last weekend. You enjoy those games.
Oh. Yeah, yeah.
It was really fun racing. You know, it was a little,
little form full, but I still enjoyed watching the, you know,
the races were really good. You know, everybody showed up,
showed up. Sturgeon Moon.
I mean, we got some scratches and stuff, but you know, I, I
think at least our handicapping we did pretty good.
We did great. I think that the, the big trust
performance, we're all, we're always looking for that that
three-year old who's going to be great in the fall.
I wonder if we didn't see something where he could be
better in the fall than we expected.
I I. Think so.
AKA kind of run or maybe you know, over one turn, that one
turn mile kind of thing. We heard from Nick in the
previous segment about that, but the I, I, I just don't know if
he's trading well. Why would you not try the
Pennsylvania Derby? Because you're not going to get
sovereignty. You're not going to have
journalism in that race. What go try to be Gosger
essentially, who's not going to traverse.
I mean that kind of thing. I'd, I'd love to see it.
I mean, he's definitely matured even since we saw the horse in
July, you know, at the AT Horseshoe.
He didn't run well that day, but he was also against the track
quite a bit and a lot. Of you'll and all three weeks
too, yeah. You'll notice on that card at
Ellis last Sunday, a lot of those horses that came back from
that Indy card ran excellent. Good point.
So I would definitely continue to, to, to keep an eye on that
because big Truss just kind of opened up and, and they couldn't
catch that horse. He, he looked really, really
good, got in the right position. Tyler had him on cue and, and he
was just, he was very, very good.
And I'm very interested to see what happens going forward
because he's kind of under the radar.
He hasn't been running at the big track, you know, and he,
he's going to be OK. I I like that horse.
Yeah, I think he'll be. He'll be.
All right. There you go.
It's mind of Spears. What was your boring play of the
day? Was it the eight in the last
race at AT? At Fort One, absolutely.
The chalk. The only chalk on my.
Well, that's not even true. You took the second favorite in
that race. I I actually, I disagree with
you. If there's a 2 to one favorite,
you pick a four to one horse. That is not picking the chalk.
I disagree. 2 to one is chalk. That's true.
True. You're right.
You're right. You're right.
OK. What you said, yeah.
We'll go with what I said. For there, he's Barry.
I'm Louis. Thanks for hanging out with us
tonight. Barry and I back tomorrow for
we're back for South Cal Saturdays tomorrow.
You can find us there. 1:30 PM start time on that one.
We'll get you all caught up on everything happening at Del Mar
on Saturday. For Barry, I'm Louis.
This has been the horse racing happy hour Ellis Park preview of
that lake. Pick four on Saturday, they can
hang out.