KY Downs Saturday | Matthew DeSantis

I guess the worst walk of music in podcast history.

This is the horse racing gap hanging out for the man who's

not from Nairo Force wrapped up their time at Saratoga back to

the city. Now of course for that Aqua, I

don't even know what the kids call these days.

Back to Aqueduct, of course, an underrated spot, of course in

our horse racing universe. Matthew, welcome in to Kentucky

Downs, man. How are you?

I'm doing great, man. I mean, it's nice to be back

home in the city and getting ready for a long stretch of

Aqueduct. But you know, we do have the

Belmont fall meet starting on September 11th and then yeah,

September 10th, I guess. And then, yeah, a lot of great

racing all throughout the fall. And you know, we got some

Breeders' Cup win your ends. But yeah, super excited to talk

about Kentucky Downs. And as a viewer, I'm super

excited to watch Kentucky Downs because the camera angles this

year are spectacular. So unbelievable.

Yeah, it's so better. I love it.

It really is. They've got the big wire here.

It's stunning to see, Matthew, how accurate this thing is that

the the distance between the two wires for the camera here is

exactly the same for something the numbers absurd.

It's like it's in the neighborhood of 3000 feet, like

a kilometer. It's unbelievable how long this

thing is. It is end to end.

It has not moved from last week when I was here last week.

It's really a remarkable thing to see because it is so

different than anything. It's about to actually pass me

behind and I don't know if I can figure out a camera angle or

something, but you can kind of see the lines just right here

next to my head if you're watching on screen and the

camera's coming up right now, so you'll actually see it go right

behind there. I'm going to try to not move

because I think it's getting pretty close here.

But yes, the camera angles are considerably better.

And it's one of the there's things in our sport, Matthew,

that I always, it's always amazing.

They build a new spot like Turfway or something and it's

like, oh, we're going to put the camera just there.

It is right there. Boom.

The next day. Earlier they were testing the

speed. I guess the thing could do like

80 miles an hour. And it's terrifying when they do

that. It just goes flying past.

There's this this little like buzzing noise that it makes when

it goes back. Pretty wild thing.

But hey, Saratoga this summer will put aside the Belmont meet

and those sorts of things. Best moments, worst moments,

best horses that you saw. Is there a 2 year old out of

that program that you're excited about any of that?

Yeah, I think, I mean, there's a lot of great moments.

I think Travers Day had a ton of them.

Torpedo Anna's Stretchron and the Personal Ensign over Darth

Vader. What a gritty performance.

I mean, that was 1. Kenny Mcpeak got that horse

ready. I mean, she was as fit as I saw

her before the Travers last year.

She looks so good. So you know, huge credit to her

kind of bouncing back and you know, after that a lot.

Troy Anne earlier this year, a lot of people having doubts

about her four year old campaign and she looked great.

Obviously sovereignty put on a show against not much of A

field, but still just the way he did it was so impressive.

But book em Dano man. I mean, what a cool horse.

I mean just one of the cooler horses in training.

So you know that effort over a really good field in the grade

one got a second grade one at Saratoga.

So you'd love to see that from the connections.

But the two year olds, Hey, we ended on a bang.

Tommy Joe and Ted Nafi. Those are serious race horses

for Spendthrift and Todd Pletcher and John and Alaska's

and ones that we're going to remember in November of the

Breeders Cup for sure. We saw some good ones at Ellis

Park, of course, the Futurdia Debutante out of Del Mar this

weekend. Well, we'll be talking about

that on this platform on Socal Saturday tomorrow as part of the

Horse Racing Happy Hours podcast work here.

Barry Spears will be in for that one.

Matthew DeSantis in today. We're going to be previewing

Saturday here at Kentucky Downs, where I am currently.

I'm in the media, man. So Churchill, they put us on a

bunker. This would be the media tower, I

guess. Have you been here?

For the same Yeah, you look like you're in like an episode of

Hogan's Heroes almost. Just hopefully.

Like that. Yeah, it's this beautiful.

I mean, the woodwork here is actually really nice.

It's a beautiful tower. But Michael Rowan's up there.

The DRF guys are over there. Steve Vick's right in front of

me. We got the Equibase Bros over

here. It's it's it's it's it's it's a

group. Oh and there's Brittany Urton.

I can see her from here. There you go A little busyness

up here, a little non Funko Media Center.

There you go. But no cool spot out here for

sure at the Mint, the gaming hall and all the stuff here too.

All right, so is Saratoga wrapping up?

Did we? You know, I think the numbers

bared out that something I was concerned about earlier in the

summer wasn't true, which was that people would get Saratoga

fatigue. I think they had a number as the

people didn't get Saratoga fatigue.

Thank goodness. Are we getting there, though?

Is it this something like a one more summer?

We can do this. We need to get back to Belmont.

I think it is. I do think people are like OK,

one more go around, we get it and then I think people are

going to be happy that it returns to the normal schedule

of the week after the 4th of July and kind of returns to its

more traditional eight week meet.

One of the things I will say is I do think that the temperature

cranks up on Jim Dandy day that once it switches over to like

Jim Dandy Whitney, like I actually Whitney, I think like

the beginning of August when the calendar switches to August,

suddenly there was more buzz. There was more excitement there.

Obviously we had a big Travers day.

But yeah, the numbers bore out almost 800 million and handle

wagered across the across the board.

So a little bit down from last year, but that's largely because

we had such a historic Travers day last year.

There was always going to be a little bit of a let down,

particularly because we had a 5 horse field without a lot of

intrigue. And so it was just one of those

things. But like I said, it's still

very, very good and people were excited right up until the end.

Really good handle the last few days and you know, the Jockey

Club Gold Cup certainly had a lot of excitement.

I'll say that on that last week, and thankfully I can say that

because everybody emerged, okay. Mean I read here he's clearly

good a ride today and that's pretty it's pretty remarkable

given everything that happened in that race.

I will say this, the I know everyone will focus on that

photo and it's it's spectacular. And if it wins the Eclipse war,

I'm not going to fight anybody of Irad.

Odd White Abario's back, of course, is hanging off the side.

But I'll tell you the, the photo that I'll probably remember from

that day for a long time is, is Flavi and Pratt is obviously

known. He's looking back at Irad,

right? And, and we talk about jockey

colonies and we talk about, you know, whatever else, the

camaraderie, the, the list of people that do that for a living

is not long. And the understanding of what it

is that you go through. I always go back to the example

of the Bond villains in Bond movies because I'm sure it is

easy to look at them and think, why are they inviting James Bond

into their homes? Well, it's because they're only

a certain number of people in the world that can appreciate

how well they live, right? That's kind of the shtick of it,

right? And in stocky world, there's

only a certain number that can understand what they go through.

And even in the moment when there's $1,000,000 on the line,

plus in a race like that, for a guy like, you know, you know,

Flavi and Pratt, where I mean these, these are the races that

make your career, our million dollar grade ones in Saratoga,

etcetera, set you up for the Breeders Cup.

All of the things he's he's got, he's looked, he's looking

backwards, right? He is, he is not eyes on the

race. He's eyes on.

I red trying to figure out if he's OK.

It was. That's the striking moment from

Saturday for me. Understandable.

Yeah, I mean, it was, you know, and you have to also know if you

if you follow the New York colony up here, you know, that

Flavian and Irad ride for, you know, wrote a lot of times for

Chad Brown where they were both in the Klarovich stables silks

together, you know. And so again, more camaraderie

than they would be on kind of almost the same team in some

ways, you know, riding for Chad. And, you know, I think, you

know, that you'd always see them walking out together so often

times in the KS silks and going up to Chad together and doing so

much together. And you know, we think of them

as rivals because they're usually at the top of the jockey

standings and going back and forth.

But these guys there, there's a deep friendship there that they

have. And, and, and honestly, it was

one of those moments where you even saw Flavian kind of

standing up in the irons really down the backstretch, not being

sure if it was going to be a no contest at one point.

And I mean, honestly, not to take anything away from

Antiquary and it just, it showed you what a monster Sierra Leone

is because that horse, I mean, got the worst of everything

outside of maybe White Barrio and just, you know, obviously

mind frame not included, but you know, just ran a huge race as

well. So yeah, there's so many great

performances, great, you know, photos and just and such

touching photos like you said. Yeah, out West, of course, we

get the win from Fierceness, ships out from New York and wins

at Del Mar, the Breeders Cup Classic with Antiquarian

winning. Sierra Leone runs well again.

Did anything change for you as far as how you look at the

Classic over the weekend? I, I, I'll say this, how I feel

about Nisos got downgraded with him scratching out of that race.

And it's not, and it was more, I'm not, I'm not calling anybody

a liar saying there's no injury or whatever.

It's not, that's not what I'm doing to not see him in that

company. I needed to see that for

affirmation of, of his ability, his ability not only on the

track against someone like a fierceness or a journalism, but

also at the distance, etcetera. So it was disappointing to have

him scratch out there. Anything else change for you,

though? Did Antiquarian perhaps become a

contender for you? Not necessarily.

I mean I, I like Ant squaring a lot.

He's he's a really nice horse who just keeps getting better.

For me it solidified my piss position and sovereignty.

I just think he is so much better than everybody else.

And I, I think it is sizable to see.

And I, in my opinion, the only horse that can challenge him is

over in Japan. And I think forever young is a

monster and he's returned to training and he's, he's a freak

show of a horse as well. And I, I, I hope that

sovereignty runs as a four year old and they all meet up over in

Dubai. That would be a lot of fun to

see cuz that's a little bit more neutral territory, but

sovereignty just does mile and 1/4 so easy.

Whereas journalism you go, I don't know, maybe he does only

want a mile and an eighth fierceness.

Well, now we know, we know his next race is going to be a

stinker because he ran a huge one out there, though he proved

a lot of people wrong in that race doing what he did and how

he did it. But I just, I, I struggle

trusting him in these big spots consecutively.

And Sierra Leone just feels like a horse that when he gets the

setup, when he gets the right conditions, he can fire a huge

race, but he's more of a grinder.

And I I just don't know if he's as reliable of a win bet as he

might end up being in terms of the odds on that particular day.

But man, sovereignty, I think just sticks out like a sore

thumb when you look at this field.

I I think he's that good. He.

Is that good? It was.

It was a remarkable thing to watch him take a hard left turn

and then decide to enter the race again after he got to that

sort of temporary pole. Oh yeah.

Oh yeah. And then Johnny B gets A back on

the track. I mean, it is a remarkable

replay to go watch. I mean, it really is.

It stands out as as one of the great rides of 2025 for sure.

The other part of of that race though, that was so fascinating

to me is I, I, I've, I've got to talk to Aaron Wellman, the owner

part of the Eclipse Thoroughbred folks with, with journalism

quite a bit this year. And they are steadfastly

supportive, at least publicly of Umberto Rispoli.

I'm sorry that horse that far back in the Pacific Classic is,

is malpractice. It's malpractice.

It's unacceptable. And at that part, I, I don't

know if he gets a pass for this one, Matthew, and I don't know

if you have a personal feeling about it, but man, I just, I was

surprised at how far back he was because.

That was that was Louis. And when they were going by the

home stretch the first time, I thought to myself, we're going

to see a massive upset because, because what you want.

To. Call it fierceness is inside of

horses and not a trip he likes. And journalism is somewhere in

Pasadena. And I just and what is going on

right now? And I think, you know, Jesus, is

Midnight Mammoth going to win this race?

Like what's going on? And you know, Johnny gave an

incredible ride and got the jump.

Johnny moved first. If I had 1/4 for every time I

said somebody got the jump on wristfully in a dirt race, I I'd

have a lot of quarters. But the bottom line is this guy

just, he takes a horse so far out of it.

And Alex Evers, the great photographer, got those pictures

of just, I mean, the kickback. It was like City of Troy last

year in the Breeders Cup Classic.

It was just all kickback. And you saw Wristley screwing

with his goggles the whole time because the kickback's knocking

him off. It's like, my guy, your horse

has speed, use it. Get in better position.

Why are you this far back? And then having used you use up

all your horse around the turn to get into a position to make a

run at fierceness in the stretch.

But fierceness is worse. It gets brave up front.

You got to get him headed or make you make him feel you at

the top of the stretch. And if you're 4 lengths back,

that ain't going to happen. Johnny's going to sit chilly and

that horse is going to roll. It is interesting how you talk

about how you're talking about journalism because does this not

it speaks to how good sovereignty is too, because he

has been able to show different running styles in incredibly

different races, right? And so most recently the

Traverse, I'm going to, I hate, it's incredible to say this.

I'm going to set that performance aside for a second.

But when you look back at the Belmont, for example, when he

made a much earlier move, what's much closer right after the

first turn, that was a sign that not only was there maturity from

him, but there was an understanding of, you know, all

the great horses, especially 2 turners, have multiple speeds,

right? Get out of the gate speed, then

that ability to move in a race, but then get back to your

coasting speed. And then having a finishing

speed, a horse like Sovereignty, having 4-5 different speeds, I

think is a real plus for him. And it's something that frankly,

I think journalism has at least three and we just don't see

them. We see two out of the gate and

then finishing. Yeah, that's it.

And there's no, there's no sense of the middle of the race.

And what would help that horse be closer and not in trouble,

etcetera. It's it's a really remarkable

thing to watch. And I just, I wonder how long

they can keep up the Alberto thing, because the horse is

better than what he did in Pacific Classic.

He just did. I I agree and I think that so

honestly, the race I would go to, to point to sovereignty,

like what you say about speeds. Watch the Jim Dandy actually,

because Jim Dandy gets he gets away really fast and he's

sitting there and you see at some point Junior goes, maybe

we're going a little too fast. I'm actually going to hold back.

I'm going to let Baeza go past me at one point.

All right now we're cruising and we're cruising again.

We almost fade to last. Then we're going to circle back.

I mean the horse, no, not many horses.

And if anybody's ever ridden a horse, and I've ridden a horse a

few times and throughout my life, but you one of the first

things you know is don't give them too many commands, right?

If you tell them to go and stop, go and stop, they just at some

point go. All right.

What do you want me to do? The fact that Alvarado can ride

sovereignty almost like he's in a video game of just like, all

right, slow up here, move out here, move in.

Here, all right, go faster. Go, he just moved out and the

horse is fine or just like cool, I can do that.

And you just like when I say the word great, I get in trouble by

certain people on Twitter. When I say sovereignty is great,

you show me Sierra Leone speeds. He's got 2.

Get out of the gate, walk out of the gate like a freight track.

OK, Those are his two speeds. Show me fierceness of speeds.

He's got one. He's he's got go to the front

and keep going. That's those are his speeds.

So when I say sovereignty's a great horse, you show me all the

other horses that have four or five speeds like that and can be

maneuvered the way he can. There just aren't many, Louis.

They're just even historically there aren't many who are like

that. Secretariat was like that a

little bit, but there are not many who you could just move at

a push button way. Pharaoh was like.

During a race. Pharaoh stands out amongst

modern horses of being able to do that.

He was very much, but I mean, that's the level we're talking

about. When we're talking about

American Pharaoh, that's exactly right.

Yes, it's totally good. Yes.

The only other ones I'm trying to, you know, like a bricks and

mortar on the turf, like a push button kind of guy.

And I read when he said it was time to go, he just did.

There are examples for sure. And frankly, much more often on

turf going two turns right, a lot of those ones, you have to

have different speeds and there's tactical parts of

things, especially if we're going like a mile and 3/8 or

something like that. But yeah, I the sovereignty

thing, just the speeds and and the the ability that the also

the very obvious good relationship with Junior

Alvarado like that, it just works as well too.

So we do have an important question from the audience,

though, is this Timu DeSantis. No hat or vest.

All right, so here's what we're going to say to Josh Rodriguez

#1 if you ever, if you ever comment on one of my shows and a

man is in a dad shirt of the quality that our guy Matthew

DeSantis is wearing. The dad.

Shirt in front of me ever again we got a problem OK number one

number two yes this is the two more version but that's what I

get on the show yeah that's that's how this works you think

I'm going to get. The good version, this is the

I'll be honest, no, Louis, this is the I haven't unpacked yet

version of the show. There's that.

Good to be back in Rockaway for sure.

All right, well, let's get into Saturday here in Franklin.

You can see Tennessee right behind me, but we are in

Kentucky. I promise at Kentucky Downs,

we'll start at Race 6. It is the ladies marathon here

on the card, 2,000,000 bucks on the line because that's what

they do here. We're going a mile and five

sixteenths on the turf. That means we will start just

past the finish line here at Kentucky Downs and go the full

two turns. Phillies and Mares 3 and up in

this one in the marathon. Who did you land on?

Yeah, it's I'm actually landing on an angle that I will

occasionally play, which is a horse coming back on relatively

short rest who ran earlier at Kentucky Downs.

And that is the #6 Stella 5 for Brad Cox with Florent Giroux

aboard. This is a horse that I just,

listen, I love this type of racing lines from a young,

relatively inexperienced horse, which I don't think we've gotten

to the bottom of yet. You just keep seeing improvement

every single race out. I like lightly race horses like

that obviously goes without saying this one one last time

out at Kentucky down South again, seeing just a quality run

over this turf course, which is so distinct and unique is so

important. I don't always need to see a

win, but I I don't want to see an A 7th place finish by 8

lengths. You know sort of a thing.

And so the fact that this one got a win and while the last two

wins have been in gate to wire fashion, the horse has passed

other horses before. And so, you know, even though

didn't win in debut, went from 6th to 3rd, if I'm not mistaken,

you know, made a little bit of a move and got into contention and

just kind of flattened out. But bottom line is this one can

go past other horses and it's going to have to because I would

imagine we talked about Irad earlier, but no MO Candy with

Saffy Joseph is a horse that's got excellent early speed is

probably going to beat this one to the spot.

But I think Stellify at six to one for Brad Cox look like an

intriguing bet in this particular spot.

I think it must include the other one that's run here as me

was going to have. Jose Ortiz, who was a forward

last time out, also won at this distance.

Mile 5, 16th in an optional claimer last time.

Joe Sharp is a monster here, frankly, really points to this

meat as something that helps fund his operation.

Now. He's also winning riding

training title, excuse me, at Churchill.

So he's doing OK as far as money now, but for a long time he was

using Kentucky Downs as a a bit of a slot machine for a good

reason. And frankly, I expect me would a

run back really well here as well.

What's interesting about Charlene's Dream winning the

Beverly D earlier and we're starting to see some of those

Beverly D Arlington million horses show up on Saturday here.

Man, Charlene's Dream won and ran 5th here next time out at

Kentucky Down. So I'm wondering maybe if that

Beverly D was a little soft this year.

We won't get that kind of transition here between those

two tracks. I think the Safi 11 trainee here

is interesting on the outside of no MO candy, Irad gets the mount

here and Irad is so, so close, man 11 runs so far, 5 seconds,

Matt going there this so far and eventually he's going to

breakthrough on some of these. This is one that you saw at

Saratoga last out. You think she's got a good

chance here? Yeah, I mean, listen, Kentucky

Downs actually plays to speed sometimes and these, you know,

you can go gate to wire here. This is not an unfair turf

course in that regard. Just because it's distinct

doesn't mean it plays any different.

To some extent. You do see a lot of gate to wire

winners. And if IRAD is able to get this

one up front and just kind of take it easy and just, you know,

set the fractions at once, then I I think it absolutely has a

chance. What I will say is Saffy's over

13 this meet at Kentucky Downs and while his stats overall are

pretty good at Kentucky Downs, I will say he is over 16 and

graded stakes races at Kentucky Downs over the last five years.

So that was a little bit of a a caution flag, though I know

overall track he does have success.

Yeah, he loves coming up here, too.

I'm sure we'll see him kicking around today.

I'm Lou Rebel live at Kentucky Downs.

This is the horse racing happy hour.

Hanging out with Matthew DeSantis, of course, from Naira

Bets. Thanks for hanging out with us

here on a Thursday edition of the program.

Race 7UP. Next, of course, on the card

here on Saturday at Kentucky Downs.

The mid millions, two and a half million bucks on the line.

We're going a mile on the turf. This is for three and up in this

spot, Matthew, I'll go first here in this one.

Brilliant birdies in this spot and I think checks a lot of

boxes for betters here 8 to 1. Price as well has won at

Kentucky Downs in the gun runner last year and so that is the the

non Nashville Derby Derby here that'll run on Saturday as well,

a race that you and I will talk about in just a second.

Won that race last year, ran really well in the wise Dan last

out at a mile and a 16th 4 for five lifetime at the distance,

etcetera, etcetera. I think brilliant birdie Brian

Hernandez has had a lot of success here.

I know he's only hitting at 6% right now, but five times hit

the board in 18 runs so far at Kentucky Downs this meet.

I'll put brilliant birdie on top here, Matthew.

I have some others I want to talk about in a minute, but I'll

let you go ahead here. Yeah, no, Bill Billiant Birdie

was also my top selection. So I'm I'm in lockstep with you,

Cherie. Brian Hernandez Junior, the

horse that just is super consistent and so a big fan of

Brilliant Birdie. I another horse I'll mention who

I think is a little bit more of a price is the #3 Cairo for

Alice Haynes with Ben Curtis up. This is 1 I really like and I

like this one actually last time out in that Arlington million,

but this one is getting a little bit of class relief, you could

say going from grade one down to a grade 3.

The other thing is the second start in North America and we're

cutting back to a mile. I actually like those things

quite a bit for this horse. I you look at when this horse

has had success, it's been in a mile and seven furlongs.

So I actually think going a little shorter for this one,

shortening up, even though I know the ground over Kentucky

downs can be a little bit more taxing.

And we'll get to that when we talk about the sprints a little

bit and who we like there. But I I still think that a horse

like Cairo at 12 to one is an interesting horse at the very

least to throw into your exotics.

If you don't think the horse is necessarily win machine, only

three for 20, 2 winning, but nine for 22 finishing second.

So 12 for 22 in the exacta. That's a horse of 12 to one you

might want to think about throwing into your exactas.

Trifectas. Was really good in the Queen

Anne at a great a Group One at ask it for tipping to North

America and the Asket form has been translated well at Kentucky

Downs this year so whatever that's worth.

Talk to Adrian Beaumont on the Kentucky Racing Spotlight last

week and he is from the International Racing Bureau.

His job is to get Euro shippers 2 races here into the Breeders

Cup. And I was asking him about

those, you know, the left hand races and that kind of stuff.

Does that matter to him? And he said, no, it's more the,

and I know you're going to love this.

It's more the the ups and downs of of ask it plays well here,

actually. And so those forces do translate

well. They're used to the general flow

of this kind of place. And so the ask it forms been

really good. So Cairo might be a good play

there. Laganos is another one of these

that is just one here gets another outside post which I

love for Steve Asmus and he's now 2 for three lifetime.

I think he'd be out of your mind to leave him out of your

handicapping right? I I just I.

Think. He's just got to be part of the

equation at the end. And Port Linus is an interesting

one for me in the 9 hole here coming in from overseas.

Frankie gets the mount here and this is one that's been running

in Britain and again, was really good in a Group 2 race in the

Cornice Orchard. So it's a mile race at Ascot and

over the straight line for sure. But this is one that does have

good experience going left-handed, including wins in

in handicapped stakes, that kind of stuff.

So point Lioness, I do think in here is a must include as well.

I think Frankie, he's been out of his mind great in this beat

as well too. So and especially in the big,

big races. So yeah, Port Lioness I would

include here too. I like your pick of Cairo there,

but I went 7:13 and 9:00 here in race.

Yeah, no, the only other horse I've mentioned very quickly is,

is more of a A shot in the dark is a horse like Epic ride #11A

horse that I just think, you know, finished second in that

Kentucky Downs preview to Beach Gold.

But a horse that, you know, largely is only one on synthetic

but has shown good form on the turf, obviously.

And I don't know, there there's a version of this race where

maybe Epic Ride gets out up front a little bit and and maybe

can take them all the way around or just kind of be in that

perfect stalking position and get the right sort of trip with

Edgar Morales. But I I just thought of 15 to

one. That's a horse that I've always

been waiting on to pop a big race in a big spot.

And I feel like we're always waiting, waiting, waiting and

hasn't happened. But you know, maybe worth a

shot. Good guy John Ennis on the

training job there. Of course, I ran in the Kentucky

Derby last year, did Epic Ride. And by the way, his managing of

that horse on the Kentucky Derby trail just fantastic.

I mean, getting him into the starting gate was just

absolutely spectacular. And then it it like, like you

said, to his credit, I was like, OK, we're gonna go spread on the

synthetic 'cause that's what he's best at.

Like, you know what, the Derby, we're gonna go do what this

horse is best at. So maybe this is the spot where

he can step up and get it done. The aforementioned gun runner is

Race 8 here at Kentucky Downs, where I am currently.

Lou Revo, Matthew DeSantis hanging out with you on the

horse racing happy hour. I almost called this Rebo and

Co, but that's not what this show is.

Matthew. Race 8, like I said, is the gun

runner. This is for three-year olds.

It's a bit of a Derby mile on the turf here. 2,000,000 bucks

on the line. Matthew, in this one.

Anybody stand out, especially in this field?

I mean, you can make a case for a few different horses.

I think in this field, you know, certainly you could look at the

number one Nameron. Obviously we just saw a horse

come over from Europe win the National Derby, Wimbledon,

Hawkeye and and so this one an unusual the international

shipper and that of course goes to Germany and then goes to John

Sadler, been training out the West Coast, then comes to

Kentucky 4 to 1 and and I would begrudge nobody for having that

as their top selection. I am going to be stubborn

though, and I'm going to maybe be a Homer and I'm going to stay

on a horse that I have convinced much like Epic Ride is sitting

on a big race and that is the long shot #13 tis dashing 15 to

one for Barclay Tag Sakatoga Stables.

This horse can win a big race. I know this horse can.

This horse has the ability to sit a few different types of

trips, can close from well back and ran into some issues last

time out in that Hall of Fame. Otherwise, I think maybe that

horse runs a little bit better and nearly got up in the Manila

over Zulu Kingdom and Capitol Hill.

Ran a really good race that day. This horse has talent even

though it's only one once and I just the horse continues to

train well. I love tis the laws of turf

influence and I just think this horse, I've seen him too many

times and he's he's an impressive runner and I just I'm

going to keep rolling with him as a top selection.

I love this horse. I He's sitting on a big race.

It always feels like on a big day when Javier Castellano makes

the trip, he has one of those races where he wins at like 1516

and one, and you look back and you go, OK, I should have thrown

that horse in. Maybe it's this one with his

dashing. Has anyone ever called you

dashing? No, no, no, I The fact I even

thought about that is so egotistical.

No, Nobody's called me dashing, No.

You are team dashing. There you are, I.

Exactly. New Century in the second spot.

I do have the one Ameron on top. I like that new century, yeah.

But I think New Century is an interesting 1 coming out of your

circuit there in New York, I thought ran really well both at

Belmont and in the Belmont Derby, excuse me, and then

Saratoga Derby Invitational, I thought frankly was good in

both. Obviously Murphy not available

to ride here, but I read is in town.

Like I said, 5 seconds and 11 runs.

Brendan Walsh trains here. The two of them, by the way, on

their one mount together did hit it, paid $9.

And so that's not a terrible pay, especially on that first

day where we had a bunch of very chalky races.

But this is 1 as well. We saw the American turf right

before that as well. One of the very, you know,

prestigious turf races in North America there over Derby weekend

as well. Ran a good third.

I think that's one. I don't love the five to one.

I wish it were a little bit longer, but I like throwing the

blinkers on here for this one just because I think it needs

to. He needs to be involved more

earlier on, frankly, like he was in the Belmont Derby

Invitational. I think that was a much more

likely win for him that it ended up being in the Saratoga version

of that. So I'll throw a new century in

my handicapping here. I also think native runner is

interesting from the 2 hole. You get 20 to 1 here.

Hear me out on this one. If we draw a line through the

performance at Ellis Park before that was in the American during

the three-year old race up at Churchill Downs.

This is the son of Lalbon and we've seen some of those

transition well to the turf as well.

But this is one that we saw in the Lexington.

Didn't like it. And then they get back to the

turf with this one and then boom at Churchill over the mile.

Good to go. Runs really well in that

American Derby. So we've seen this horse run

without Lasix as well. You give me Brian Hernandez, 20

to one at at Kentucky Downs, I'm going to take it.

And so I think that's an interesting one, especially if

you're trying to play an exotic like a, you know, an exacto

trifecta kind of play anybody underneath for you there.

Yeah, there's a few I mean I think that you could look at.

I certainly agree with you about the seven new century like that

horse a lot. I think Chiacoso for Keith

Disorma with Ben Curtis up is or second back from a little bit of

a freshening 1. The Secretariat last time out at

at at Colonial and it was a horse that I had kind of in the

third position has been training well.

So that was another. One who I thought could be

dangerous. Super tactical last time too.

Like that's the kind of race that you go back and watch and

you're like, OK, that horse knew to stock to stay right there.

Little shake of the reins, he was gone.

That was an impressive run for Joe Koso last time.

I agree. Yeah, So I, I think, you know,

again, I'll be interested to see what these odds are come post

time because I, I agree. Like I love New Century and a

little bit more of a price. I'd love Giacoso and a little

bit more of a price. So like, I'll be interested to

see if they float up at all. I agree with all of the

notorious OTB posts about me looking amazing.

I agree, yes. No nose.

Yes, that's true. You're Dash.

That's what he's saying. People do want to know, Matthew,

are you sleeping? OK?

The answer is no. How about that?

Eat it Actually. Are you?

Where do you sleep better? Queens or or Saratoga?

Oh, Queens by mind. No.

No doubt. I I fall asleep to the sound of

the ocean here. I Yeah, you know, come on.

It's great. And then Saratoga, I'm stressed.

And I got to wake up at, you know, 5:00 in the morning

because Kennedy's on Thursday. Yeah, Anna's doing a paddock

schooling at 5:45. So I got to be out there, you

know, I'm like, I love you, Kenny, but you're killing me

with the times, you know, so. Oh man, we move on to Race 9.

It is the Music City on the card here.

We're talking Kentucky Downs on Saturday.

This is a all stakes pick three if you wanted to try this one

here, 6 1/2 furlongs on the turf.

This is for three-year old Philly.

So this is the gun runner, but on the sprinting side for the

Phillies here. Of course, we'll get the Grade 1

Franklin Simpson right after this for three-year olds as

well. We get the return of Kilwin and

here she didn't get a mention in your Saratoga recap, but

frankly, we could talk about her right here.

One of the more oppressive wins at Saratoga this summer.

Absolutely, I incredibly impressive when I thought for

sure the mod horse had it coming down the stretch and and killing

got there. And I mean talking about making

up a ton of ground that. Day Imagine owning ragtime.

Are you, are you touching the money if you own ragtime in that

race? I had ragtime in the pick five.

I did not have killed him, killing myself.

So that was a tough one for me. But you know, it's an

interesting move because that's a horse, Louis, that really

popped on the dirt. You know, when Rusty moved that

horse to dirt man, he saw those speed figures pop up.

And now we're getting back on the turf and her turf numbers

are not that much better or worse than anybody else in this

field. So I at a shorter price.

She was a horse that I was like, I don't know if I love including

her in this spot. It feels almost more defensive

to some extent. OK, yeah, it's interesting.

I I'll say this, I don't think it's a turf move to run her

here. I think it's a Kentucky Downs

move to run her here. Agreed.

Yeah. Yeah.

So I, I don't think that this is a long term.

Like I don't think in the Breeders Cup, for example, she's

going to be in the Philly mayor turf.

I think she's going to be back on the dirt.

I just think this is a $2,000,000 race and she's a

Kentucky Brad, so she's eligible for all the money.

And so I think that's larger part of the thing here.

I am very simple in this race. You include the 5910, you move

on with your life. I think she's so spicy as a

major player here. I think a lot, a lot of her not

great at Ask It last time. I'm going to excuse that because

before that she was excellent and I think that she's going to

come in here and be really great.

But Tabiti ships in for Ralph Beckett.

Frankie gets the ride here. This is a horse that just won a

Group 3 at Goodwood, has been at ask it running really well in a

Class 2. There was in a group ones

before. Did win a Group 3 in a wait for

wait for age at Salisbury as well.

So I this is just one that's been in good company before.

Frankie is going to give this one every chance ever.

But I will say this, watch the AE list Matthew when we get to

race day because this one has a loaded AE list.

I think the governor of the 13 can absolutely win here for

Carlos David. I think the Pop Idol can

absolutely win here for George Weaver.

I think multiplication can absolutely win here for Brad

Calhoun. So just over and over.

The 1st 3:00 on that AE list are absolute must includes if they

get thrown into this field. But like I said, if they are not

59 and 10, move on with your life.

Yeah, I think 5. I mean, yeah, Tabiti is a horse.

It's funny. I was talking with my colleague

Kaylee Shapiro about this the other day, and I said, you know,

we were talking about Breeders' Cup already.

And I said, you know, so many casual fans.

They know Charlie Appleby, they know Aidan O'Brien, they might

know John and Thaddy Gosdin. I go.

They don't really know trainers like Ralph Beckett who are kind

of like the equivalent of like the Brendan Walsh maybe of over,

you know, overseas of like, no, it's not Todd Pletcher and Chad

Brown, you know, or, or Steve Asmussen.

But it's like a half a step below that.

It's like Ralph Beckett is an amazing trainer.

Like when he brings over a horse, like you pay attention

and but sometimes they don't get as much money.

They don't take as much money as an Applebee horse or an O'Brien

horse or a Dolphin horse coming home from overseas, things like

that. So but no to PD that that was my

top choice. I love that horse and and I have

a ton of respect for Jose Dangelo.

She's so spicy. Loves that horse as well.

So tough ones to get around. Cassie, the classic Q horse

number three. I thought it was a little bit

interesting. It just this is going to be an

expensive sequence if you're playing like 5 or because

there's not a really obvious single and there's a lot where

I'm like, man, I feel like I got to include 3-4 horses here.

So it's a very tough race, but 5 was ultimately my top pick.

There you go, we move on to race 10.

Start of the late pick three if you are playing that on

Saturday. Here it is the grade one, the

one grade one they have here at Kentucky Downs, the Franklin

Simpson. It is a three-year old Sprint

going 6 1/2 on the turf here. 2,000,000 bucks on the line in

this one. Matthew, I'll let you go first

here. I decided they should call this

the good bleeping luck, because good, good bleeping luck.

I don't blame you for that at all.

The this is 1 where I mean the angle.

It's almost like, I mean, we'll talk about this, I'm sure a

little. It's the angle is kind of

playing the way you handicap the downhill at Santa Anita where

you kind of look for horses that can go a little bit longer than

6 1/2 and you want to go from milers a lot of times cutting

back. So a horse like Nibago is

actually really interesting. The number 9 in my opinion, it

is a horse that I always like. It just always fades going a

mile. And so I'm like, oh, this is

perfect. Like you shorten up to 6 1/2,

you're the foundation of running a mile.

You have good speed. Like maybe this is a horse that

can do it. Ultimately, I went against every

single piece of handicapping advice though, and I went to the

chalk. I went to Bill Mott's horse

because I think Bill Mott's horse spiced up, Bill Mott is

not the type. Yes, it's Kentucky Downs, but

he's not the type to throw a horse into a grade one if the

horse is not ready for a Grade 1.

And this one took down Governor Sam easy last time and looked

really, really good doing it. Has that off the pace running

style. I don't think stretching out is

going to be a problem at all from six furlongs.

You look at this one, this one, the way this horse finished that

last race going six, that horse can keep rolling.

So I'm sorry, last race was 5 1/2, but the race before was 6

has no problems. Keep going.

I, I think that one looks really tough.

Like I said, I threw Mibago in underneath.

I I think you can make a real good case for a horse like dream

on. I think you could make a real

good case for a horse like antisocial at 12 to 1.

So I I think there's a lot of horses that make sense here.

I'm 435, so I totally agree with you about dream on.

I can I that pen mile, that yielding pen mile, man I I

there's something about being able to power through that.

That horse ran that 135 and change.

So a sub 136 mile in the yielding go.

I think it's 6 1/2 here. Makes a lot of sense for the

amount of energy that he's going to have to expend here.

Son of not this time. We've seen them run well at

Kentucky Downs as well. And at some point Marcasi's

going to win a race here and I I think this could absolutely be

the one that does it. I think Warhart is really

interesting at 15 to one for Rudy per SE, one last out

closing but stalking at Colonial before that, though, they were

trying this one in different spots as far as as stakes races

earlier in the year just didn't hit but did win stakes up at

Aqueduct in November. You know, in that in the

Atlantic Beach. It's I just I wonder, I wonder

if this isn't one that can pop back up.

Second off the, you know, the layoff here, a little bit of

time off. Maybe the horse just needed a

freshening. I think that 15 to 1 price is

incredible. And we're seeing those Omaha

Beach babies. Oh, there's a camera there.

It is. It started to really show up in

many of these races, man. And so wanted 7 furlongs already

at Kentucky Downs, right? And so this one to me also an

interesting go at 6 1/2. The 15 to 1 price is fantastic.

You mentioned antisocial 12 to one here for Jose Duarte.

Junior was second in that Secretariat at a mile to shorten

up a distance makes a ton of sense here.

Was willing to be right on the front.

So I think that that might be an angle on Saturday as well.

If it stays dry here, if there's a chance of rain, which there

is, man, it might change, change up the course here.

But certainly speed. I've been playing well at

Kentucky Downs. Our final race that we'll be

talking about today is Race 11, and that one is the Turf Cup.

We're going 7 1/2 miles. Is that what, Oh, mile and a

half, Sorry. Here at Kentucky Downs.

And we are running for $2,000,000.

This is a Grade 2, two and a half million dollars.

Excuse me, there is this is a grade 2 as well.

One of my favorite races of the year here, Matthew is the Turf

cup. Love these longer races where

you've got to kind of figure it out.

I'm going to try grandson outta here.

The sixth horse has won before here run second as well.

I thought looked OK in the Arlington million.

I think Tyler tried to make the move a little earlier than the

horse was ready for in that one, but not not a not a massive

downplay of that horse. I think Pletcher setting that

one here to win. So I'll put grandson on top.

Who'd you land on on the Turf Cup?

Yeah, I landed on a horse I've liked for a long time and that's

Utah Beach, the number 7. This is a horse I've always

liked for Ignacio Crais, the 4th Joel Rosario up on the mound.

Listen, you know, lost finished the 4th in the Sword Dancer last

time out, but you go back and look, this horse has run well

down in Kentucky in particular 1 Churchill in the Louisville won

the Elkhorn at Keeneland and has run well at Kentucky Downs too.

That's the other thing is actually ran second by a

distance, admittedly, but ran second while the horse was until

a maiden and 2nd career start. So had some experience at least

over this ground. You know, can run a good race

over this. I thought 6 to 1 was a perfectly

honest price Joel Rosario on a horse that's going to be closing

from the clouds. I'll sign me up for that while I

have a heart attack while he's doing it, but I will gladly get

there, hopefully to cash a ticket at the finish line.

But again, another tough race where you know, listen, grandson

auto was my second choice. So I absolutely as a horse I'm

going to be including in my tickets.

So I think you can make a case again for a lot of different

horses here. You could certainly look at a

horse, you know, like Fort Washington who won that

Arlington million. But another horse who I think is

interesting is corruption at six to one for Mark Cassie, Jose

Ortiz up. So a lot of ways to go.

I think in this race. Utah Beach top choice.

I'm interested in Devan Propola on the inside too.

Safi takes over the training job here.

Frankie gets the mount. I think distance is not an issue

for that one. So, yeah, just a fascinating set

of races here. Matthew, thank you so much, man,

for jumping in today. Really appreciate.

You live here at Kentucky Downs. Do you think they left the

camera there on purpose to mess with me?

Is that what they're doing right now?

Is. That I think they, they were

listening to us and they're like, Louis wants more camera.

And so we're going to give we're going to give Louis what he

wants. One thing I will say, I wanted

to add a little something to the folks who might be playing

Sunday at Kentucky Downs, OK. And the untappable couple of

horses that I think are interesting.

One is the #4 Snow Face Princess, who might be one of

your top choices. Had been in Todd Pletcher's

barn, now is transferred to Steve Asmussen's barn.

Over the last five years, Asmussen only one for 19 with

trainer changes as a 2 year old. O for six on the turf.

So that's something to maybe keep in mind.

The other one is a Bill Mott horse #5 Quiet St. 8 to 1.

Interestingly enough, as Louis continues to play with his

camera. Mott over the last five years, 5

for 1338% with last out maiden winners on the turf making their

second start. So when you see Mott win in

debut and then move a horse up in a second start, that horse is

live. And so 8 to one.

I thought that was really interesting because you don't

see many Mott runners popping debut on the turf in particular

when they do pay attention. So I, I just, I was, as I was

digging into that race, I just wanted to share those two little

Nuggets with your listeners. Matthew DeSantis, that failed

the menace out there at Naira bets, of course, for all the

work they're doing there. Thank you, Sir.

Thank you, Louis. This has been the work grazing

happy hour live at Kentucky Down.

We'll see you next week.