Pennsylvania Derby 2025 | Steve Kornacki

Oh yes, B roll it meets the horse racing happy hour.

I blew your bow hanging out back deck 88° out currently here in

Louisville, KY. Thanks so much for making this

part of your Thursday to start your horse racing weekend with

us here at the Horse Racing Happy Hour.

Steve Fornaki alongside today. I don't know if it's an annual

tradition, I'll ask him when he jumps on, but it's an annual

tradition at this point. But the Pennsylvania Derby thing

seems to be a Steve Kornacki spot and so here we are.

Ahead of that, wanted to thank our friends at Amwager who

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amwagerandamwager.com. Steve does join us.

I assume we're in New York of some kind.

Steve, how are you? Rockefeller Center 30 Rock

Louie, how you doing? I am nodded.

I'm not at that. I'm not a Rockefeller Center.

There you go. OK, all right.

Well, Steve's working on these much bigger projects than me,

but here we are on the horse racing happy hour.

You gave out sealing Crusher on this show.

Did you appreciate my joke about you giving out Sealing Crusher

on this show? I I appreciate it.

And how about this? The horse never ran again.

I know this. I was thinking about that the

other day. I was like, I wonder what she

ended up. Did she head back to California?

What was Sealy crusher? Nope, just done.

I never. Saw anything?

I mean, what they working to top that?

They working to top the cotillion, you know, I wasn't

going to top the cotillion. I guess so, you know. $1,000,000

race It's time to head out on top.

That's exactly right. Well, Steve Kornacki with us, so

kind to join us here. You were on the mid season

eclipse awards that we tried for the first time on blood horse

Monday a couple of months ago. And now that we've gone through

a couple of more races, obviously we've seen sovereignty

now in the in the traverse win by I'm, I think the other horses

are still finishing that race. So we'll we'll update the the

the the count by the time those other horses pass the past the

finish line. But just your thoughts on this

three-year old year because Steve, as we head into this

Pennsylvania Derby, what stands out to me is this turned out to

be the best of the rest of the three-year old crop.

And if this were the normal crop of the three-year old year, I

think we would really like it. Yeah, well, I mean magnitude

better hurry up and finish because he has to run, you know,

Saturday here. So it's.

A good point by you. See if that affects things.

Yeah. No, I feel like we got, you

know, since we talked, you know, mid season, you know, clear

separation there. Obviously sovereignty separating

himself also, you know, I think there was the, you know,

journalism's kind of standing relatively with the sovereignty.

I think we have AI think people have a more firm sense of.

But yeah, listen, I, I, I there's a couple in this race by

Ace is the the headliner, I think, but there's a couple of

others. We'll talk about it.

Gossgar, I think in particular, who I think boy, couple I know

couple I think and Gossgar could be in a different conversation

right now. Yeah, with Gossgar.

In fact, I was there at the Haskell, standing right behind

trainer Brendan Walsh, and he just had the look, Steve, of a

man who couldn't do any more than he's done in the Preakness

or in that race. He just ran into journalism

twice. And here we are.

He just, he just did one of these.

He just kind of shrugged. He just kind of did that.

And what else can you do? I mean, what else can you do?

Is exactly right. Yeah.

But I know. But I I can't, you know?

Well, again, we'll get to Gossgard.

I got some thoughts on him, but yeah, I'm excited to see him.

What about the rest of the class?

You mentioned that Pacific classic.

Obviously fierceness goes out there and does Del Mar things.

He's very good on that track. Obviously, we'll see him in the

Breeders Cup Classic. If he's healthy, he'll be in the

starting gate. Did that change your opinion on

him? Did you like watching him?

I think for many people watching him be in trouble and then work

himself out of trouble. Yeah, absolutely.

I mean, and, and for all the theories that are out there

about fierceness because, you know, he, he, he had some duds,

you know, earlier in his career too.

Then the Met Mile was terrible this year.

And I mean, I just, I, I always, my, my inclination with the Met

Mile was it was kind of a weird, the weather was bad, the, the

track condition, you know, that monsoon day there, but also just

that turn and 1/2 at Saratoga, weird configuration.

I wasn't sure that that was really, you know, kind of what

he should be doing anyway. But I mean, yeah, to have

trouble 'cause I think one of the things people were talking

about with fierceness was, hey, when he gets in trouble, he

folds. Well, he didn't fold and, you

know, doing it against that caliber of competition and

enough that, you know, I think when you look ahead to the

classic right now, you know, still looking as there's

somebody out there somehow who can beat sovereignty, you know,

fierceness at his absolute best on that track where he seems to

run particularly well. It makes, it makes me, you know,

most curious about him in terms of being a threat to

sovereignty, that's for sure. Obviously you'll be working on

the Breeders Cup, We'll both be there, very different

capacities, but are you starting to get excited?

Yeah. Oh, yeah, yeah.

No, this one, I, I think this this year in particular, you

know, I, I think there've been more kind of star caliber horses

and an older division that I think has been better than

usual. So I, I think we've kind of

known this is coming for a while now.

Yeah. Yeah.

And for example, on the Distaff side of things, we're going to

see in this cotillion a fair number of runners that I think

could be a problem in the Distaff too.

So that's that's been fun on that side.

I just think we have a lot of horses in a lot of divisions

that are going to be interesting once we do get out there into

the San Diego area for Breeders' Cup.

And I, yeah, I I've caught myself looking ahead a little

bit too much. Well, you don't forget before

you down your way hell. Yeah.

Don't forget the spinsters looking, you know, torpedo in a

nitrogen. How about that?

That's as good as it gets, man. It really is.

But yeah, we're and a couple more weeks here at Churchill,

we'll be off to Keeneland, of course.

And once we see the Keeneland grass and that stone and all the

green jackets on the the very old men that work at Keeneland

will know that it's very close to Breeders' Cup.

Steve Kardaki with us here on the Horse Racing Happy Hour

presented by M Wager today. Let's get into that handicapping

TV. You know what, actually, I

wanted to pause actually, because I I wanted to ask, do

you have a favorite moment so far this year?

Has there been a race? I have to say the race where

Nitrogen got back on the turf and Fion set the track record at

Saratoga, forgetting which stakes it is at this point.

I just love that finish. I just thought the race so fun.

We all thought Nitrogen was going to run away with it and

she ran awesome and it didn't matter.

I love those kinds of races. Well, it kind of stands out in

my mind. I had some big multi race wagers

built around nitrogen so I remember that one a little bit

differently maybe than you do. I think the moment that this

stands out for me is just is that is the Preakness and that

whole sequence of events. And you know what, I I think

back to you sometimes. I I mean, look, I'll be a

company man, but I mean this Larry comas call that was so

fantastic because everybody is watching, you know, the

incident, you know, the the pile up, however you want to, you

want to describe what happened there.

And I just what he said on the air was perfect.

He's he's calling that. Our eyes are all on that.

And then that, you know, kind of gets resolved.

And then he just says, Meanwhile, Gossgar is running

the Rachel's light and you look and he's clear and it's like, Oh

my God, gosh, how this guy escaped.

And then he gets rundown. And it's just I, I just think

for, for drama. That was that.

That was it for me. A fantastic moment for sure

there in Baltimore, of course, that version of Piblico, no

more. They're moving on to the new

one. They'll be at Laurel next year.

Speaking of East Coast, we go to the Philadelphia area.

And by the way, if you are a listener to my radio show, the

Woman calling the races on Saturday as Jessica Packet,

she'll be a guest of mine at 10:20 tomorrow on ESPN

Louisville if you would like to join us for that.

But the Greenwood Cup is Race 9, no next in here, Steve, very

disappointing. I got to say, the poor guy off

off the racetrack right now for sure.

But a mile and 1/2 on the dirt here there is a grade 3.

Some interesting because next is not here.

Actually, Steve, I think an interesting Betty Grace because

of that. I think so, although you, I

mean, I'm looking at the, the two favorites here and you know,

I, I, you know, I, I, I, it's hard for me to get past either

one of them. And I was, you know, that, that

#4 let me try to pronounce the name.

No Bien NI Mao. I'm not sure if I'm saying it

right. Yeah.

Yeah, good job. Yeah.

All right, there it is. I mean, I don't know, running in

Uruguay, I, I, I found the race, I found the, the mile and a half

race in, in Uruguay and I was like, I, I felt I felt like I

achieved something great finding it.

And then I was like, wait, how do I, how do I make sense of

what I just saw? Because I don't know who, you

know, and I, what I saw though in the race was it it seemed

like he was up close to the pace and everybody around him, you

know, retreated pretty badly And he and he held on pretty well,

didn't win, but held on pretty well.

And certainly, you know, was, was gutty late in that, in that

Saratoga win. I just I, I, my decision on this

one was I, I, you know, I'm, I, I'm going to go with the number

one digital OPS who had that near miss, you know, in the bird

stone. It's, it's a little, you know,

good horse there who beat him shortens up here from a mile and

3/4. And just I, but this is mainly

based on the price I'm seeing 5:00 to 2:00 in the morning line

for him versus 2 to 1. And I would go between those

two. I just I would go with the

bigger price because I think they both kind of make some

sense here from what I can tell. Yeah, I think Digital OPS is

going to go off the favorite and I think probably a worthy

favorite because of that effort in the bird stone that you

mentioned. They seem to have found

something letting him go much, much further distances hasn't

run anything shorter than a mile and an eighth since he's been

back this summer. And so I'm interested in that.

The only thing that caught my eye, Steve and here's man OK, so

studying horse racing has really ruined me because I used to

trust the times it tracks and now I don't.

And the, the time for a mile and 1/4 for Nobia Nemal in a mile

and a quarter race going left-handed in the Grade 3

Panama, or excuse me, the Aprada in, in Taruma in Brazil was 2

minutes and six, almost 2, two O 7.

If you ran that in the Derby, you'd finish like 15th, OK.

And so that is a, that is not a fast time.

Now we're going a mile and 1/2. So we're adding two full

furlongs to that. So I got to imagine Steve, the

mile and 1/4 time is probably going to be around that.

But can he keep going after that is my real question.

Can he really get that mile and a half doing that now he has

gone. He was in the Grand Premio Jose

Ramirez. Why as you mentioned and he was

in that he ran 4th. It was at a mile and 1/2.

It took six hours for them to run that race as he ran it.

So I just if their timing is at right at all, the Saffy horse

makes way more sense to me. That's all I'll say.

I guess that's if I if I have to go to that spot.

So there you go. Race Ted is the Liberty Bell.

If you are so interested in joining us, Race Ted here starts

to pick 4. It is 6 1/2 furlongs on the dirt

here and we are dealing with the Philly mayor side of things 3

and up here. Steve, I'll go, I'll go first in

here. Landed on the 8 horse in here in

the Sprint and that is probably a favorite.

It is. It's Mystic Lake, so we watched

Safi had her four horses at Gulfstream Park this weekend in

the winning in for the Breeders Cup down there, but decided to

ship Mystic Lake up here and it's an interesting choice,

Steve, and here's why. If you look at her races before

she got to the pink ribbon, she was running over one turn in

lots of different races. The only one where she really

didn't show up was in the Derby City Distaff, which Kopi on.

Nobody was beating Kopi on that day.

So Simply put, it didn't matter. Plus, that was a pretty sloppy

day here in Louisville. You were here, it was a pretty

sloppy day at the track there. So I'm going to draw a line

threw that one for her and frankly, since then she's been

running in this kind of company and it's the perfect kind of

company for her. Tyler keeps them out here was

born in that pink ribbon over two turns at 7 furlongs at

Charlestown last out. But before that was going to one

turn. I think she's very much the

favorite in here and very much a worthy favorite in here.

Right next to her breaking to her inside will be Carmelina

Paco Lopez keeps them out here and this one more because it's a

a horse for course see 4 for four lifetime.

I really trust Paco in these kinds of situations.

Plus look at the splits on this one last time running at 21 and

change 43 and change was never a problem. 114 and four can win in

this company, Steven. So to me a horse that's been 4

for four, I think is really interesting.

And then you look inside at the rail to all class and yes, it's

not great to be on the rail at a Sprint, but the good news is

she's not going to want to be on the lead.

So even if she breaks a little slowly, she's going to do her

better racing later. Kendra Carmouche in to ride her

last win was was with him aboard in a in an allowance up there at

Saratoga at the distance as well.

She's won 2 / 4 races at the distance.

So I'll go 871 here. Steve, I know for you, as you

looked at this one, you looked at someone very similar.

Yeah, I wish I had something to something dramatic here besides,

you know, the horse who's going to be probably less than a 2 to

one favorite. I think I just I I like sort of

that sort of outside his draw there for Mystic Lake.

The class, you know is there. It just seems like this is the

way you know, I look. I don't bet parks that that

often, but my my sense of it is, especially on the sprints, tends

to favor speed. Speed holds up pretty well.

So I think, you know, kind of forwardly plays drawn outside of

Carmelina there. I was intrigued by by the one,

you know, maybe for the reasons you said, you know, coming late.

I mean, I'll in the multi race stuff.

I'm just going to, you know, ride or die on on on Mystic

Lake, but I'll do AN-81 exacta. OK, see, you know, see if we can

get a little bit that way. There you go, the Parks Dirt

Mile is up next. It will be race 11 on the card

at Parks on Saturday. Again, this is the horse racing

app represent by AM Wager am wager.com.

Go check them out right now for that deposit match up to 150

dollars there. Of course, we are going one mile

on the dirt. This is for three and up on the

open side of things here. Steve, we'll let you go first

here. But some horses in here that

have tried higher level, some of them moving up to the listed

stakes for the first time. Where'd you land?

Boy, I, I think I had the I spent the longest time on this

one of anything in the sequence. And I think what I ultimately

kind of concluded what I, I don't like, I really don't like

many of the horses in here. And I don't want to, you know, I

just like I, I initially looked at Nelson Ave. and I'm saying

speed Nelson Ave. had a great race here New Year's Eve.

But then I look back at that, that was just a muddy track, you

know, and there were, I think there were three horses on the

card that day who like Nelson Ave. just got the lead and then

opened up and won by like double digit length.

So I see that really gaudy performance on New Year's Eve at

parks and I'm, I'm not sure it's, you know, it's going to

translate to much here. Coastal Mission coming off it's

a layoff. I'm not sure that's giving me

pause. You know, right there Dilder I

have I have been keeping notes on dilder for the last like 5 or

6 races and I, I, I finally wrote just like stop getting

tempted by this horse. It seems like he's he always

looms and he's there and then it just that that kick that you

need is never there catalytic, you know, just seems to run

second a lot. So I I'm ultimately on this one.

I I agonized between either the three Duke of Gloucester, who's

five years old, kind of run locally looked like the last

five races, four or five races. The horse seems to have come to

life and I think I would have taken Duke of Gloucester in this

race. But what was it?

It was 2 back in that there was a mile stake here at at parks 2

back where he just kind of ran out of gas once they turn for

home. And meanwhile, the horse who

didn't, you know, in that race or held up better in that race

is the seven far MO power, you know, and it's Paco.

I really I really like Paco. I I in in general on on I think

in races like this, I think he can get this horse.

This horse won it a couple years ago, won this race a couple

years ago. I think he'd get close to the

pace. There's another one.

I think just like Duke of Gloucester is sort of getting

sort of seven years old, sort of has a renaissance here in the

last four starts or so. I think with Paco moving aboard

has really helped. And and I think could, you know,

run forwardly placed behind like a Nelson Ave. or something and

then make that make that move and and win it late.

So it's a lukewarm. I'm I'm looking for some kind of

price and I'll go with the seven.

I don't blame you frankly, if the winner of that race Awfully

cool were in here, I don't know that that horse wouldn't be like

3 to 1. I mean, frankly, right, Because

who else is there in here? Bunch of horses, like you said

that have figured out that if they run second, they get the

same meal when they get back to the barn.

For sure. Catalytic is in here is

interesting coming out of a couple of handicaps at, excuse

me, at Gulfstream Park over a mile and a 16th and a mile and

an eighth. And frankly, if those were mile

races might have won them under Edwin Gonzalez picks up Tyler

here and I think it's just a better move here.

As far as Jock, he and Antonio Sonov won three their last

eleven races together, and so maybe there is a spot for

Catalytic in this field here. One for two at the distance with

a second place finish as well. Both of those at Gulfstream

Park, though not going two turns.

Edgar Zayas was up for one of those wins.

I think of him as kind of the new Tyler at at at Gulfstream

for sure. And you know, you mentioned

Nelson Ave. He's coming back out of Kentucky

Downs was on the turf before that.

They tried him though, in that Salvatore Mile.

They clearly thought that this was the kind of spot that they

wanted to have him in. And then it rained, of course,

right. Just sit the horse racing.

He'll just kick you straight in the in the you know, what's if

you if you let it. And so, yeah, I, I actually

landed on Dildur here just because I do think best of the

rest. I guess I, I don't know, Steve.

I guess just that I think Saffy's going to have a big day.

I'll put it that way. How about that?

I'll say Saffy's going to have a big day.

And I think Irad will probably give this horse a good a chance

to win as anybody. I listen, you're probably going

to end up being right here because the time I finally get

off him is the time. Yeah, that's.

Exactly right. We move on to the gallant Bob.

We move into the graded stakes here at Parks.

This starts another Pick 4 here in race. 12/6 furlongs on the

dirt here, a grade two $400,000 on the line.

Steve and I thought came up. I think this is a fun race.

I think it's going to be really, really interesting because you

do get the Baffert shippers in to parks, both for the Derby and

then for this race, of course, in Barnes, who we know as the

son of into Mischief that just ran really well, frankly, behind

Patch Adams and the Jerkins. But you also get Doughnut God,

who matched up with Neo Echos the day before the Haskell at

Monmouth. And I happen to be there for the

Jersey Shore. And I, I, I, I leaned on Neo

echos in that spot because I do think there's I think he's a

good horse actually. And if you look at his Florida

Derby, for example, Louis, why are you looking at a Florida

Derby? The Gallant Bob is 6 for a

launch. You're right.

It is. He did the early work of that

race. That's why I'm talking about it.

So he got the lead. He did most of the work.

He still finished third of the Florida Derby sovereignty to Pan

St. in that race. Of course, I don't love what he

did in the Hilton last out. That is essentially the

Charlestown Derby. OK.

But Steve, the reason I'm not holding that against him is that

was two turns. We're going one turn here,

getting back to one turn instead of that two turn 7 furlong thing

at Charlestown. I got Neo Equus on top here, so

I'm going to lean on the 10 here.

I think he's the best horse in this field.

I do think Barnes is the second best horse.

It's interesting that Tyler gets them out here because guys are

going to different spots around North America.

Big day at Woodbine, for example, if you're a guy like

Jose Ortiz, you just stay at Churchill because there's a

bunch of stakes and you don't have to go somewhere and your

kids are here in Louisville. I don't know.

I'm sure that's why his motivations are.

But you get Tyler in town, this is 1, like I said, that showed

up really well in the jerkins they seem to have found getting

back to that San Vicente kind of form.

So I think it's those two and a bunch of dudes in this race,

Steve, and I'm really excited to see them lock up when we get to

the head of the stretch. You're not going to pick the

Canterbury shipper. Tell us about Canterbury Park,

Steve. Do it.

Tell us about Minnesota. I just, I just, I, I just, I

always love, I love horses like this.

I always like the, the horse that comes in from the small

circuit, you know, usually could just go, you know, brakes great,

can, you know, has that tremendous early speed and then

can't last. And so you got the madhouse in

here who's been up the track everywhere but Canterbury.

But you know, you look at those and I'm like, gosh, I did Paco

on board and I guess they're saying I start trying to talk

myself into it. I'm not, I can't, I can't do it.

I, I don't think, I don't think that's going to happen.

I think you're you're basically. I basically agree with you on

this one and I, you know, I, I'm going to go Neo Echoes too.

That's going to be my top pick. I'm going to try to build some

stuff kind of horizontally around that too, for the reasons

you say. I look, I'm Barnes.

Totally, yeah. Probably the best in the race.

You know, I just doing 6 furlongs, you know, that's a,

you know, a little bit new for him, I think.

And the other one I'm interested in is the one retribution, who I

think's got some, some real upside here.

But I I just think you look, I I I like Neo Equos as a one turn

sprinter. I think there's like the two

turn in the last race is a variable.

I think the Woody Stevens that was what the way outside draw in

the mud. It's almost you know, and then

you've got that that race at Monmouth that that was pretty

good for what you can take from it.

So I like kind of that where the draw is here and I like, I like

a lot that's going to be my that's be my play.

I think the one on the inside is really interesting.

We watched that you and I were there when he won the Chick Lag

at Pimlico and I it was a slower race.

I mean, 111 is not fast for that level of race, frankly for a

Sprint, but it I thought that was a horse.

What was that his third career start.

Now that I'm looking at you instead of the the past part,

there is his third career race and frankly, like you said, it's

one on the rise. And we forget that three-year

olds are at different points in their careers at this point.

Some of them have had two full 2 year old years.

It's only a sixth race ever. I'm with you.

I think that one horse is one that could upset the apple cart,

certainly as far as exotics are concerned as far as exact to

trifecta kind of play. Especially let's say Barnes

doesn't travel well and doesn't like the surface or something.

Who knows in that case. And so yeah, I'm with you.

I think Retribution is really interesting and frankly Sheree

Defoe was placing her horses really well in stakes races as

well. 13% is not an accident ever and graded steaks.

And so and that's not steaks. Great at steaks.

So she's really, really coming on as a great at stakes trainer

here in North America. Move on to one of the grade ones

on the card here. It is the grade $1 million

cotillion. It's is the Oaks there in

Pennsylvania for three-year olds.

Milan is 16th on the dirt here. And I got to say, Steve, this

was when this field came up. And yes, there is no nitrogen in

this one. We'll see her in another spot.

I thought, My goodness, thank God for the cotillion we get.

All of these great 3 year old Phillies.

A reminder of how fun this summer has been with Scottish

Lassie, with Lacarra, obviously with good cheer.

Who was the best of the spring in our three-year old Phillies?

When we talked at the Mid season Eclipse Awards, for example, I

think she was kind of the runaway winner at that point,

but things have sort of flipped since then.

How do you feel about Good Cheer at this point of the summer?

Steve Kornack. I don't feel bullish enough to

to take her in this race. How about that?

And I, I listen, I, I, I don't mean to be too flip about it

because she might end up, you know, this, this might end up

setting up perfectly for her cutting back a little bit here.

I mean, you know, going a mile and 1/4 in the last race,

holding up, you know, pretty well there.

I, I, I think she makes, you know, a lot of sense here.

But I the three heavy hitters in this race, you know, Lacarra,

Scottish Lassie and good cheer. Despite being excited to see all

of them run, I'm not going to take any of them.

OK, All right. Steve Kornacki, probably a

little like me, going to try a long shot in this one.

Who'd you land on? So, well, let me, let me put it

this way. I'll give you my top choice, but

then I'll tell you what I'm going to what I'm planning to do

with this race just but anyways, my my top choice is going to be

dry powder. You know the number 8.

Now a couple of things about dry powder.

Let me just refer to what I wrote down here.

So ran in the coaching club oaks with Scottish Lassie looks

terrible, but I think lost the race at the start.

You know, wants to be before we replaced hit the gate coming out

was never in it. Very, very weird race, 4 horse

race. And and for that same reason, I,

I, I'm sort of of the mindset when I look at Scottish Lassie

prove it to me again. I mean, as he's a gaudy buyer,

the 15 lengths, all this stuff, but didn't have to pass any.

But he kind of had it easy. I think immersive had a little

bit of trouble, you know, early on there, I mean, but totally

capable. But I, I, you know, I'm not, I'm

not going to be too cowed yet by by Scottish Lassie.

And in fact, they ran, you know, together a couple starts back

earlier this year. I think dry powder ran better.

So and then that Catherine Sophia, which is sort of the the

local prep for this race at parks a month ago was won by dry

powder from the far outside post where she's going to be breaking

from here. And she won it overwhelmingly.

That was it. That was a, you know, going away

4 lengths, 5 lengths. So I think, you know, look, she,

she likes the track. She can handle the outside post.

I think she's matched up well with Scottish Lassie before.

I think there's a big price right there.

So that's going to be my top pick in this.

Now, what I'm also going to do is I'm going to do a lot with

the sort of horizontal pick three stuff around this, and I'm

going to use three long shots in this, relative long shots.

I'm going to use Cliquot Cliquot, however you say it, and

I'm going to use Indy. Why am I blanket on the name

here? Indy Bay coming out of the the

Charlestown Oaks. I I just there's different

things I like about all of them, but I think the main thing for

me is play against those three favorites.

Take a shot with these three Neo echoes, the single and the and

the the one before this, and then connect it with another one

in the next. All right, pretty awesome there.

I, I landed on Kleeko on top here, believe it or not.

And a lot of this is, is viewer bias.

I saw her in the Indiana Oaks. And Steve, one of the things

that can happen when you when you actually go to the track and

cover these things, which I have decided I I want to keep doing,

is that when you're in the winner's circle after these

races, you can get a good sense of whether a race was too much

for a Philly or if the environment was or whatever.

This was the the, the, the chillest, most professional

horse I've been around this year was Cleco.

It was after the Indiana Oaks. You could have set off a

firecracker in the winner's circle and nothing would have

happened. She is just cool as cucumber

trains. Well, I talked with Brendan

Walsh after the race and, and I was like, wow, I, you really got

something. Here he goes.

Oh yeah. Oh, yeah, we got something here.

I'm going with her on top. I think this is her coming out

party. I think he's been bad luck with

Gossgar. I think he's owed something by

the horse racing gods. And I think Liko might be it,

man. And I think we might get 10 to

112 to one on her in this spot because of all of the different

things. Her highest buyer ever, like you

say, I said about another contender here is only an 87.

I think she can break into the 90s because remember, good cheer

dominated the spring and never really broke more than like a

9192 kind of speed figure. This group of three-year olds

this year isn't blowing it out of the water with speed figures.

And like you said, if if Scottish Lassie doesn't return

to the exact form she had last time, it goes back to what she

was doing previously. She's very beatable here.

Lacara is an excellent racehorse, is probably going to

be fine. Second off the layoff here, I

think she's going to be OK under Dylan Davis.

Expect her to get back. She's also in every other type

and this is the every other. So I think Lacara is going to be

fine. So I think for me in this race,

I'm three and two, because I do think that that Clico and Lakara

actually have the best shot of the of the runners in this one.

And it's going to be 77 and sunny.

And we're looking at horses in this race that are just Simply

put excellent in these kinds of conditions, Lakara amongst them.

And by the way, I forgot with Neo Ekos, I forgot I meant to

mention this. He's never missed the board at

any distance on dirt when it's not raining.

Period. Conversation 7 for seven.

Quick way to get the Kentucky Derby out of it.

And and so 7 for seven, though hitting the board, which is

really spectacular. And so I, I am really amazed at

at La Cara's numbers when it's not raining.

And I think Cleco, just based on that experience of being around

her and what Brandon Walsh, the confidence he has in this Philly

because I asked her next steps and he was like big ones

essentially. And and that's a that's a cool

thing. So I'm going to land on her on

top here. I'm going to try her.

But like you said, I'm going to use multiple horses in here

because I think this race and frankly, the Derby are pretty

wide open. Well, now you've got me feeling

really good about including ours.

Yeah, there you. Go.

All right. No, I'm, I'm sold.

I'm sold. You know, I want to, I want to

get the price in this one. She was so cool, man.

It just just level. Wasn't breathing hard after a

mile on the 16th at Horseshoe. I yeah, I think she's going to

be great. All right, it is Derby times.

Steve, I don't have a good buy or sell name for Philadelphia.

I couldn't come up with one. You and I have done like Hemlock

before, like we've done fun ones before.

No, Hemlock might have been Joe Christopher.

I apologize. But like, you know, we've done

some of these fun ones before. What's a good buy or sell?

And by the way, what's a good buy or sell for, for for

Philadelphia? I I was trying to think is there

a rocky reference we could do? Is there?

Yeah. The stairs, the the Liberty

Bell, the the fans throwing things at Santa Claus, you know?

What? That's what we're going to do.

If the horse could win, it's Liberty Bell, and if they lose,

it's Philly fans. That's what we're.

Going to do OK. There you go, Philly fans, There

we go. All right, so I think I got

these set up. There you go.

All right, if a horse could win the Derby, folks, you're looking

for Liberty Bell. This is like a scratch off

lottery ticket. You're looking for the Liberty

Bells. OK, that's The Simpsons

reference. I hope Steve got that one.

And then if not, we're talking about Philly fans.

You know who you are, you know how you act.

We've seen it. We know what it is.

There's a jail at your football stadium.

We know all the things. All right, so let's get into it.

It's time for Pennsylvania Derby. 1,000,000 bucks on the

line here. Mile and an eighth on the dirt

there outside of Philadelphia at parks.

My friend Jessica packet on the call on Saturday.

We start with the one horse here in so Sandy shipping in most

recently from Saratoga but broke her his mate excuse me at

Horseshoe before winning on on 1st ask against winners at

Churchill and then running in the Curlin a good second last

out to a little horse named chancellor.

But Patrick, where we go? Liberty Bell or Philly fans

here? I think I'll end up saying

Philly fans, but I'm, I'm I'm tempted to go Liberty Bell on

this one because I mean, you know, he's outrun the odds

couple times here. I I thought I was going to win

that curling. I mean, it could have gone any,

you know, but I think ultimately just, you know, like you said,

it was Chancellor Mcpatrick who beat him and I'm not too

impressed with with Chancellor Mcpatrick, even though

apparently he just got some huge stallion deal this week.

But so ultimately, I think this, this might be a little bit

water, you know, a little too deep here.

But I was, I was curious. I think he's an on the improve,

but I think we've got four or five horses minimum who are a

little better than he is at least.

And so that's really the issue here is that the feels really

good. It's not about him.

It's actually that feels really good.

So I'll agree with y'all go Philly fans, not so Sandy.

What a ridiculous game. I love having you on.

Steve Alto Belly is coming out of the tool hole here.

The Nicholson Barm Castillo gets them out here.

They are one for their last nine together at parks.

Which level of Philly fan is this?

Are we in the jail at Veteran Stadium?

Is that where we are? I don't want to, I don't want to

cast aspersions on their character, you know?

We're throwing batteries. Let's go.

All right, move on to #3 magnitude.

I think the most perplexing horse in this field, Ben Curtis

and the ride for North America's all time leading trader.

Steve Asmussen by wins at least winner the Iowa Derby by a

billion lengths after winning the Risen Star by a billion

lengths. Lost the Traverse by a billion

lengths. Steve, Which horse shows up the

Liberty Bell or Philly fan version of Magnitude?

Do you have any damn idea? Because I.

I mean, the way I'm going to bed it is Philly fans, but I got

this. I that knowing feeling in the

back of my mind that, you know, here comes the next 108 buyer

and we're all like, you know what?

But I I mean, I just I bought into a little bit of the the you

know, hype. I I guess you could call it hype

before it Travers, but hey, this course, you know, and then I

watched him like just fold not in the face of sovereignty, but

in the face of bracket Buster. So I, you know, yeah.

That was the whole thing. I'm also Philly fans and I I

just can't figure out what works for this horse.

He got a medication bump in Iowa, his Risen Star.

There's no, there's no making that up.

He was just excellent. It's OK to say, but that was a

long time off and it, you know, he's run those two races since

certainly the Iowa Derby. Andy certainly picked him before

the traverse. He looked that good in the Iowa

Derby. So I'm not going to fight.

Like I mean, I get it and I understand the hype and all

those things, but I'll go Philly fans at this point.

I just think there are a couple that have been more consistent

and put it all together more often.

David of Athens will break from the floor.

This is one that started its career in October at Keeneland

and one needed time off until June facing winners for the

first time. Ran 5th in that one, comes back

and wins most recently at Ellis Park over that one mile turn and

a half thing like they have at Saratoga.

Steve, that's what I'm doing with my hand is 1 1/2.

Is this Liberty Bell or Philly fans because I got to say this.

This is a fascinating 1 to me because Tyler's aboard this one

and not Big Truss who won the Elvis Park Derby by 7 plus

likes. So this was the jockey change is

what caught me off guard here. Steve.

Liberty Bell or Philly fans on a David of Athens.

I'm going Liberty Bell on this one and two questions for you,

though. First of all, watch the replays

and I'm hearing them say David of Athens.

Oh, Athens. Sorry, yes.

I mean is that AI have no. Idea.

OK. I was, I mean, I was curious if

there's some city of Athens. I haven't if I've been saying a

city of Athens wrong somewhere and then.

Actually, how you say Athens that we just didn't know.

Yeah, that's. Exactly.

Yeah, all these years I don't do Atlas a ton in the summer, but

my sense is pretty speed favoring carries a speed well.

It can, yes. That is, yeah.

You know what? That's this summer especially.

You didn't want to be far back. That's fair.

Yes, yeah. So I wasn't sure what to, you

know, kind of make of that that last one, although what I did

like is, I mean, the last one is super impressive, obviously, but

I like too is that debut came from off the pace.

And so we've seen 2 dimensions from the horse now and yeah, no,

I, I, I, I just, I could see real upside on this one and a,

you know, a good price. So I would and I think that's

interesting what you're saying too about Tyler on board.

Brandon Walsh. There's some, there's some boxes

that check here. And when you factor in the

price, yeah, I'm saying Liberty Bell.

Yeah, Brandon doesn't ship this horse for no reason.

I agree with you. I'm going to go Philly fans, and

I hate to do that because I'm with you.

I think this is a horse that's going to get better.

The work certainly indicate a very fast horse here as well.

And so if he can get the mile and an eighth, certainly I think

he'll be part of the early speed equation as part of this race as

well. But I I think it's just a little

bit too much to ask him here. But boy, if he put if he puts

that last performance together, Steve, like you said, and gets a

little bit better, even he's going to be a problem by the

time we get to Saturday. Speaking of Saturday, a happy

delusional. There you go.

Paco Lopez writes this one a loser in the Smarty Jones one

for eight this year. And that was in a maiden race.

What make you what? What do you say, Steve, about

the fourth place finisher in the Federico Tesio?

I mean, I mean, sometimes you just you look at the name of

your horse and you say, well, this, this fits too perfectly in

this race. I mean, that's that's a great

description, right? But this is, again, no, no, no

aspersions cast on people here. But Philly fans, Yeah.

A little delusional. There you go, Philly fans.

For me as well, the 4th place finisher in the Federico Tessio?

Unlikely to win the Pennsylvania Derby.

The first mention of a Baffert runner in a Grade 1 today will

be goal oriented. Irad Ortiz Junior gets them out

here as Flavian Pratt is not going to be at parks on

Saturday. This is one of the horses that

was involved in that fracas at the Preakness.

Steve, I'll go first. I think this horse wins the

Pennsylvania Derby and I don't like it.

But because I have another horse in this race that I'm very much

rooting for who broke my heart in the Preakness, but I think

this horse ends up winning it. I think this is such a Baffert

type pattern. I think I read gets it done.

I think we're talking Liberty Bell goal oriented at the end of

the day, Let's say you about him.

Is he a potential winner in Liberty Bell or not one in

Philly fans? No, he's, I mean he's a Liberty

Bell, no question. And he, I think it sounds like

me and you may have kind of come down to the same 2 and, and he

was definitely in terms of pick for this race, one of the one of

the two. I was kind of deciding between

the one thing I would say that I heard I I'm not good at watching

workouts and, and understanding them.

I mean, I can watch them and not my first question will be what

did I just see? But David Oregon is really good

at it. And I heard him talking about

the the works for goal oriented and suggesting they were better

a few months ago than recently. That gave me a little bit, you

know, that gave me a little bit of pause on him, but definitely,

totally, totally capable, obviously so, so Liberty Bell.

There you go. Big Trust.

The aforementioned Big Trust winner of the Ellis Park Derby.

I was there for that one as well.

Picks up Javier Castellano on the mount here for Brian Lynch.

Hunter Byer last out was up the track in the Indiana Derby going

a full two turns here. Steve, I almost landed on this

one. I think he is absolutely on the

rise. This is a son of Justify.

We've watched all of those babies grow up just fine, but

Steve, Liberty Bell or Philly fans for Big Truss here.

I'm going to go Philly fans on this one.

I really, I, I part of this is because in that Indiana Derby,

I, I like big Truss quite a bit and I, I did not like that

performance at all on a day, I think when that track was was

carrying the speed pretty well. He was right up there in the

mix. And he's the only one who just

to just to kind of, you know, fell off of it and then yeah,

that Alice Park Derby. That's why sort of what I was

asking you a minute ago too. I, I, you know, the track might

have helped him that day in my, in my mind on that.

So I'll, I'll, I'll go Philly fans.

All right. I'm definitely going Liberty

Bell on big trials. I think he is developing the

right way and I think he can absolutely win here.

Frankly, going to take significantly less money than a

Bayeza or you know a Gozger or a goal oriented with a Baffert

name next to it, etcetera. So I think big trust not only

can win, I think he's the best value in this race.

I think it's not close in this field by ASA will break from the

8 here. Hector Berrios makes the trip to

ride for John Sheriffs. Do not blame them.

Second in the Jim Dandy behind a horse named Sovereignty.

Third in the Belmont behind a horse named Sovereignty and 3rd

in the Kentucky Derby behind a horse named Sovereignty.

Steve, Liberty Bell or Philly fans.

Oh oh by the way, I should mention Sovereignty.

Not in this race. Go ahead.

Yeah, obvious, obvious. Liberty Bell.

What can you say? I mean, it's a deserving

favorite. I would not be most likely

winner here for you Baeza. Yes.

OK. Fair enough.

I I think he's and to this race that might be 1617%, but yes, I

think he's he's the most likely winner here.

Gossgar comes in the 9 was going to be my other pick here, Steve,

because I do think a lot of this horse.

I think a lot of the training job Brandon Walsh has done with

him once in a while, you just shrug your shoulders because you

lose to sovereignty and you lose to journalism.

Let's say you about Gossgar. Yeah, this is this is my

personal Liberty Bell. This is this is who I'm going to

go with. I mean, look, I I think you can

you could say so many the same things about Gossgar you say

about, you know, by ASA. I mean, it's like, OK, second

journalism, second journalism one the Lexington, you know, one

and not not the, you know, toughest race, but great at

stake. So I mean three straight races

now and is within, you know, a combined, you know, one length

total of being 3 for three, having two Grade 1 victories.

And and you know, this close to journalism.

So I think, you know, can the horse put it all together and,

and, and sort of get over the hump here?

You know, I think totally if by, you know, so at a better price,

longer price, I think than than by ASA, I'm with you on the goal

oriented makes a ton of sense here too.

You just look at that Haskell and and I wouldn't be surprised

if if goal oriented came down and and and and got it done.

But you know, look, I just think based on these last three

performances. For his horse and what the price

I think is going to be here. I see 4:00 to 1:00 in the

morning line. You know, I think Baffert will

take more by ASA. I think clearly going to, you

know, likely to be the favorite here.

So I think and based on what I was saying just here and there

going to talk about the workouts, maybe I was fishing

for reasons at that point, but I want to go with this horse

because I'm so impressed with the last, the last few

performances and I think this is I think this is the spot.

He's also in terrific form. I absolutely think he can win

here. Totally agree with you, Steve,

on that. You had a pick 3 heading into

this race that we'll get to in just a second.

MO Plex will be the last one we talk about.

He did win the Ohio Derby. I got to say this too.

I've gotten to know him a little bit just from his time,

certainly here in the state of Kentucky, but up there at

Horseshoe Indianapolis as well. Joe Ramos got his first mount in

the Kentucky Derby this year, Won the Ohio Derby aboard MO

Plex a couple of months ago in June, of course, up there at

Thistledown. By the way, Steve, I was

thinking about this part, too. This is an interesting thing

that happens when you do this show as long as we have.

And of course we gave you the nice shout out for our 6th

anniversary the other day. The I have Bob Roberts on every

year to talk Ohio Derby and Bob was the handicapper at the

Cleveland, OH. Man, what's the newspaper there?

It's a Plain Dealer. That's exactly right.

He was at The Plain Dealer. There was a new, another rival

newspaper in town like every good big American city at that

time. And he had a seat and then two

seats down was the handicapper from this other place.

And I guess there was this beautiful rivalry between them.

But he covered every Derby for like 46 years or something.

Still does handicapping in Northfield Park, all this stuff.

I nominate him every time there's an award for like

lifetime achievement or something like that.

Because guys like Bob, really, they're the ones who really have

made the sport go in all these little markets and I think

little markets. Cleveland had 4 tracks when he

started, you know, this kind of stuff.

And so, but Joe got the win there at Thistle Down.

I was wondering, do you want to be the Bob Roberts of the

Pennsylvania Derby? That's really what I wanted to

ask. Now I'm not well after I've

insulted Philadelphia fans, I don't think they want me taking

that role at all. Delusional.

There it is. All right, So what do you think

about Plex though? Not a great gym dandy for sure,

but no one had a good gym dandy except for sovereignty.

Yeah, no, I just I, I'm going to go, you know, Philly fans on

this one. I just, I, I just think the

waters are, are, are too deep for this one.

And I I, you know, I look Ohio Derby.

I think that's the kind of company, you know, put the horse

in that company and I think called the Liberty Bell.

So Steve does have a pick three that starts in a race 12.

Race 12, of course, is the Gallant Bob.

So this goes through the Pennsylvania Derby if you wanted

to follow along with Steve's pick here.

So you're gonna go ahead and single as you mentioned the 10

horse here that is Neo Equos and then in the cotillion you're

using three horses as well as part of your, your handicapping

here. Clico who we talked about Indie

Bay and then dry powder. Tell people again, you're trying

to catch value in that middle part of the sequence because you

feel strongly about the other two, Yes.

No, exactly like the I mean, because you're going to have

three pretty short priced horses there in the cotillion, you

know, in in good cheer La Cara and Scottish Lassie.

So I'm, I'm hoping to get like, you know, an 8 to 1 winner or

something in that second leg. And then Gosker, I mean, it's

like I just. Hybrid, frankly, I mean, and so

you could get value there, too. What's that?

Gosker might be the third favorite of the Pennsylvania

Derby. You might get value again.

Frankly, that's what I'm saying, right?

I'm not even, I'm not even searching for a price in the

Pennsylvania Derby. I I just, I like Gosker and

I've, I've had this race kind of circled in my mind for a while

thinking this is the spot for him.

So, yeah, I, I just like, you know, look, Neo Equus, let's

lead it off. What's getting upset in the

second leg? And then let's put it all on

Gosker. And if you tell me I got a big

payout sitting on Gosker's chances there.

I, I I'll take that chance, yeah.

That's exactly right. Last race on the card will be

race 15. It is the park Sprint going 6

1/2 furlongs. You know what, shout out to the

people of parks. By the way, Steve, I for years I

went after the Maryland folks because they would card terrible

races at the ends of these days. And I mean, like we'd go from

the Pennsylvania Derby to a $5000 claimer and it's like,

come on people, we could do slightly better.

We did way better than that with the park Sprint here going 6

1/2. We're putting up 150 grand for

this. This is 4 and up.

Might be the last time we see 4 and up on a card in 2025.

Steve, it is November or excuse me, September 20th by the time

we run this race. But yes, as I said, 6 1/2

prolonged Sprint here on the dirt and you in here, you were

landed on the 9 horse in Bucarino.

I think that's a really interesting one as well.

Yeah, I, this is AI like this race, you know, this was, this

is another one I spent, I spent a lot of time looking at this

race and I look, I like Bucarino.

I, I, I like Paco in sprints in particular.

You know, he's ridden. I I think this horse has

responded really well with him on board, you know, last several

races he ran against. Yeah.

I think the favorite in the race is going to be Damon's Mound.

You know, from the outside there.

You got Full Moon Madness on the inside.

I like Full Moon Madness, but I'll, I'll sort of take a chance

for that. That inside post maybe is a

little trouble for him. And, and look, the three of them

ran together at, at Delaware Park, you know, a couple races

back, you know, earlier in this summer and, you know, Paco got

Bukarina. I, I, I thought Bukarino had the

race 1, you know, and they ended up getting caught there.

My full moon man of slave was very competitive with them right

there with them four years old. I think it's still be getting a

little bit better here. And I just again, I just I, I,

I, I like Paco working out the trip for this horse right here.

And then, you know, look, you got the favorite and the wide

outside post. Then you got the other one on

the rail. Maybe they get into a little

trouble too. I'm interested because I have

the 9:00 and 1:00 on top and then I have Damon's mound third.

OK, and here's here's what I think ends up happening here,

Steve. It's a lot of two things.

Either the nine and the one just do their thing and they run and

they're good. And Damon's mound does what he's

been doing for a while and finishes third or fourth or

something like that. And it is what it is.

Or this is the step down in class that he really needed and

he runs away with this thing by like 5 because I think that's

really on the table, frankly. And so I'm going to throw him

in, especially to close the card.

You know how it is. You hate to miss on the last leg

at the last, last race of the day, whatever that thing might

have be, might have been. Excuse me, but you've got

another pick 3 here. You're going to try?

No. What?

What are you laughing about? Hey, you.

You did the homework, Steve. I'm going to show work here.

It's like math class. You know what, Mr. Kornacki,

please come to the board. Show us how to do the

Pythagorean theorem. Yeah.

So we're breaking down for us. All right.

But no, just don't call me back Monday morning when it when it

blows up in my face. But essentially you're going to

try to single again here in the final.

Yeah, it's the same thing. I mean, I I I'm not I don't

always do the pick three, but I actually I really like Bucarino

in here. I really like Oscar and I want

to take a shot at an upset in the cotillion.

So, you know, let's let's roll it, keep it going.

You know, if, if, if ever I hit Gosscar and I could be alive to

Bucarino to like get a little cherry on the on top.

I'll, I'll, you know, live with that.

Delusional The theme of the show they.

Happily delusional. Happily.

Delusional. That's exactly right.

Oh, man. All right.

So what's your next trip to the track?

What are you doing these days? You going out to Aqueduct?

What are you doing? A little, little equestress.

What are you doing these days? Going to be at Keeneland first

weekend of October, so is that? The NBC thing or just you?

Yeah, NBC is going to be on that that Saturday and Sunday.

So and I think that will put the spinster in our in our window.

I certainly hope so, because that's going to be.

I'm super psyched for that. Awesome.

Well, I will come. I'll be there on that Saturday.

So I'll apologize, pop by the side, say hey, all those things.

Well, Steve, we always appreciate you jumping by the

show. Appreciate you.

All right, Louis, good luck this weekend all.

Right you too. Let's see you Steve.

There you go Steve Kornacki and AB and C appreciate him jumping

on with us here on the horse racing happy hour.

We'll be back at it next week. Plenty to get into on the horse

racing side, but should be a fun day of racing out there at parks

again. If you are able to lift AM

Eastern Time at espnlouisville.com or if you

have to be in the area you can just us anywhere on your smart

speaker around that I heart and all those sorts of apps packet

track announcer called parks enjoy me as part of that, but

I'm lure about this is the horse racing.

Happy hour.