Churchill Thanksgiving Week Stakes | Matthew DeSantis

Here we go. Hey, before Thanksgiving.

A terrible music. It must be the horse chasing

happy hour. You know, not the Santos.

My name's Lou Rebeau. The studios.

There's a PSP at Louisville. Matt there before 5.

Happy Thanksgiving, man. How are you, man?

All right. Happy Thanksgiving to you as

well, Louie. Things are great here in the New

York area and we're getting ready for maybe a blustery

Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade. But I also am getting excited

because on Friday, the after Thanksgiving, not only am I

going to enjoy some great racing at Churchill Downs, but EAGLES,

Eagles, going into my first Eagles home game, actually for

that game against the Bears on Friday.

I'm going to one up you. I'm I am a 7 mile St.

John's hospital Eastside Detroit kid.

I'm going to the lioness. That's awesome Thanksgiving.

How about that's awesome. Unbelievable dude.

I, you know, you talk about the Macy's Day Parade and I'll, I

don't care how many listeners lose because of this little

slow, but the, the Detroit parade dates to 1934, as does

the Thanksgiving game. OK, So we've been doing that in

Michigan for almost 100 years now, OK.

And I got to tell you, everything on Thanksgiving Day

is built around the Lions game. Even when I was a kid and they

were horrible, yeah, the whole day was still built completely

around the Lions game, and I just assumed I'd never get to

go. I just assumed it would never

work out, that I would get to go and afford it and do all the

things. And then I got into this career

and now I have sponsors and partners and now I get to go.

So how about that? Eric, that's I mean, I remember

my Thanksgiving was filled with like Wayne fonts and Eric

framework and yeah, that was knowing that I guess the.

Yeah, they'd be. They'd be two and 14 and they

went on Thanksgiving. That's exactly right.

Yeah. Exactly right.

Exactly right. No.

And everybody would think of nuts.

And like, why do we keep giving these Thanksgiving.

Thanksgiving. Dave anymore.

So, no, I'm going to be in a much colder place, even trying

to take in some of the very sad Detroit Thanksgiving Day Parade

since Macy's has completely stolen all the bluster from

that. CBS doesn't even come anymore to

the trade to cover the parade. So it is what is what are the

bonuses right now? So this is actually a very fun

time of year, Matthew, as far as as betting a busy week at

Churchill Downs. But then we go to places like

Turfway and busy tracks where they're going to be big fields.

What can we get in there about right now?

Well, right now, obviously we have the $200 amounts of patch

deposit match bonus. If you use the promo code bonus

200, you can get that. But on top of that, every single

day we have promos attracts across the country, whether it's

a bet and get, let's say bet 75 at Churchill and Aqueduct, you

get 15 back. Win or lose, we're going to have

a bunch of stuff. You mentioned Turfway, we're

going to have a bunch of stuff next month.

So that's going to be a lot of fun.

But then we also have the $5000 late pick five hit and splits at

Aqueduct Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday.

So if you play the late pick five at Aqueduct and naira and

you're not opting into naira bets, you're kind of leaving

some money on the table because if you hit that, it just adds to

your winnings every single week. That's exactly right.

And even if it's just, you know, whatever the bonus is, I.

Shouldn't even. Yeah, I'll be honest, I'm able

to see kind of behind the curtain on that pretty

regularly, even on a super chalky day like where the pick

five hits for like 200 bucks, you typically add and there's

the bonus is $700.00, you know, $1000.

And so it really does pay to play.

There you go, All right, Matthew DeSantis there at Naira and

naira bets of course. He and I are going to go through

the eight different stakes races at Churchill Downs over the next

three days. So 2 tomorrow on Thanksgiving

Day, the only graded stakes in the country will be the False

City Run on the dirt over frankly, just down the street

here at Churchill Downs. Then on Friday, of course is the

third oldest race at Churchill Downs, that is the Clark Stakes.

They will run the 151st version of that just like they did the

Derby and the Oaks this year. The Misses Revere on Friday and

then Two year Old Day on Saturday almost certainly will

see a bunch of starters in that Kentucky Derby gate and Kentucky

Oaks gate run on Saturday across the street here at Churchill

down Matthew and are going to go through two stakes each on

Thursday and Friday and then four on a Saturday.

Matthew, you ready to go? Yeah, absolutely.

Excited, exciting. 8 races for sure.

It really is and some fun fields and frankly only one major

defection to really go after and that is Explorer did not get on

the plane changes the. No Moss.

I'm Moss. Not get on the plane.

Is that what she said? She said.

She said no Moss. She goes Bob.

No, Moss, we're not getting on the plane.

So that does leave an interesting runner in the the

grumpy Rabbit gets to break from the 11 instead or the 12 instead

of the 13. We'll get there when we get

there. We'll start on Thursday, though,

with the Cardinal Stakes. This is part of the Thanksgiving

Day program. Matthew, if you had to guess how

many people go to Churchill every week or every year, excuse

me, for Thanksgiving Day, how many would you guess?

I'm going to guess like 74. People.

I, I don't know, based upon what I see on the wide shot on an

average day at Churchill, I assume there's like 12 people

there. So I I can never said how many

people are actually. So there will be 1000 people

just sitting around the paddock hanging out all day.

Just hang it out. Just just hang it out.

Just there, just doing it, whatever.

Over. About 7500 people are expected

this year for Thanksgiving. That's pretty.

That's wonderful. The I know that's tremendous.

I just stay at a better camera. I know I just put a better

camera angle so that it didn't look so empty all the time.

What you go, you go on like a like, let's say right now, like

you go today on Wednesday. Or something.

There's 45000 people kicking around there.

But you're right. I mean, you would never see it

on the TV. A lot of people tend to migrate

Matthew up to the third floor. You're undercover.

You can get that view from upstairs.

Yeah, yeah. I'm not gonna lie, it's nice.

I do a lot of spots. It's as go to 2nd floor viewing

area as. And I, I've heard a lot of

people, I've heard a lot of people migrate to that first

turn as well. I think I'd heard some some of

that a little bit and that's not picked up in some of the camera

angles and stuff like that. It's so big too, that it

honestly it's like the old. Belt you got 5000. 10,000 people

and it looked like 5 people were there.

I mean, it was so no, I, I, I commiserate with the people at

Churchill who got that job. But it's, it is what?

It's just one of those funny things where I'm like, well,

there's like 8 people. On the right, a little dizzier

than that out there on Thursday. Yeah, that's great.

That's great. The Cardinal Stakes is a race

11. I don't know why I have this one

first, because we're not going to talk about it first.

But that's a bad job. I mean, we're going to talk

about the falsity first. We're going to flip this.

There you go, boom. How about that?

We're also presented by Mercedes Durban, who I'm sure is thrilled

to be hanging out with this ridiculous show today.

We are, we are talking. Also, Need is a great three mile

and 8th on the dirt here, 4-3 and up.

Sort of the undercard race, Matthew, for the Clark on

Friday. Where'd you land in this one?

Yeah, listen, I I kind of went to an angle that some people

like playing with, some people like playing against.

That's usually kind of playing against a horse coming out of

the Breeders Cup this shortly after the race.

I just a lot of times believe that trainers will have a horse

really ready to go for that Breeders' Cup race.

And there's kind of a natural let down, particularly when you

run back a month, a few weeks later.

And so that was one of the reasons why I was playing

against #10 regaled for wit Beckman coming out of the

Breeders Cup to the staff, I thought ran very well enough

Breeders' Cup to step honestly one of the few horses to make up

any ground on runaway winter Scylla.

But that said, I ultimately landed on this number 7 Royal

Spa for Brissette. Tyler Gaffney went up.

This horse has just been an incredible field to ship across

the country, but is right here in Churchill Downs where the

horses won four for 8/6 for eight in the exact always seems

to run well. Brissette seem to have this one

kind of cranked up coming off of, you know, a little bit of a

freshening and I just think has the versatility to win up on the

front end and also when been coming from off the pace.

I like that versatility that it gives Tyler riding in this

particular race. So that was my top choice.

I do think the number 8 standout sensations a little bit

interesting as well. At 8:00 to 1:00.

The numbers would need to get a little bit faster, but this one

has won three straight and clearly is kind of pointed the

right direction for Tom Amos and I was really pleased to see that

victory off Lasix last time in the turn back the alarm up here

at Belmont of the Big A. Also too that's one where the

the numbers at Churchill make sense, right?

Five times in the exact in seven runs.

And and so yeah, I mean that that's the kind of horse that I

think can absolutely get there. You and I have the same top

horse here by the way, in this one.

Here's what I'm really interested in is one that we saw

a lot of in the spring and a ton of buzz around her is quiet

side. We're back on the course in in

the Raven run last time at Keeneland, and I'm not gonna lie

like she didn't, it wasn't great.

Now, she wasn't bad at the beginning or anything like that,

but you know, once she wasn't going to win.

They just I don't want to say they wrapped her up, but like

they there was no push at the end of that race.

That was a 7 for a long race. The race before that was over

wet fast. Go here in the Kentucky Oaks.

If we get rid of those two races, is this not the distance?

Is this not what this horse wants to do?

I think it absolutely is. And so I I got quiet inside my

top 3 here. Matthew.

I'm really interested to see if she gets back to any kind of

that form. And if you look at her recent

works, they've been very good at Churchill Downs.

I'm I'm wondering if not, if this isn't just a get back to

this spot. I don't know that she wins here,

but you know, maybe a launching spot into her 4 year old

campaign. Listen, I have her third as

well. It's funny, I have her in that

exact same spot. Much of the same logic that you

had Jose Ortiz, who wrote her last time out is notorious for,

and I don't say this in a bad way of when he doesn't have a

horse under him, let's walk at home.

He knows and and he saves horses.

And honestly, that's why trainers love using him because

he's not going to push a horse and he's going to make sure that

horse is ready for the next start.

And we're not going to unnecessarily use up a horse in

a race. If there's, you know, what are

you going to do? Improve one position maybe.

And so like, what are we doing? And so I think it makes all the

sense. Second back from that long

layoff has been training great. John Ortiz is not going to spot

this horse in this position if he doesn't think she's got a

real shot at running a big race. I know how much he cares for

this Philly and I like her a lot in this spot at 15 to 1.

I think there's a real chance Brad Cox has a big day and I

think it could start with the four Alpine Princess in here as

well. I thought she was really good in

the Locust Grove last time, just didn't for whatever reason, have

the late kick. I wonder if it's because she

didn't need a little bit of time off.

The last time they did that for her was November of last year.

My goodness gracious. And that was in the comely up

your way at Aqueduct where she ran really well off the off of

the layoff right behind pretty Anna, who at the time was one of

the best runners in the country. And so I, I think there's a shot

that she's a little bit of time off here, not a lot, but enough

that, you know, she got her legs back underneath her.

I think Alpine Princess could be really interesting in this one.

Is this a, is this a royal spa or the field kind of thing?

Or are you going to spread a little bit in your tickets?

You know, because I like standout sensation and quiet

side as big prices. This is a royal spa with two

prices. I'm not going to be defensive

and include Alpine and Princess or regaled or things like that.

Like I'll roll with my the seven as my top choice, but I'm going

to pair it up probably with two big prices in case the seven

falters. I I maybe have a a nice bailout

option there. Joe Ramos in to ride the 10

regaled here, won the Zia Park Derby yesterday.

How about that? So globetrotting Joe Ramos got

his first Derby mount this year. He's doing a little bit of

everything these days. We move on to the next one.

It is the Cardinals Stakes. We move to the turf for this

one. It's a mile on a 16th.

Their three-year old Phillies in this one.

We just had the Commonwealth Turf for the boys that this is

the other girls version here and excuse me, Phillies.

And there's 3 and up in this one, which landed this one race

11. Man, I would have been so much

easier to land on the horse that I ultimately landed on if not

for the post position. But I just can't quit the number

11 Proctor St. It's always been a horse I've

liked for Brendan Walsh and I just think this horse has been

running so well the last few times out really, you know, has

come back as a four year old and run that 85 off the bench off a

long layoff. Then comes back on to 909191

finishes third in that perfect sting.

But man was running behind some nice horses in terms of dynamic

pricing and Rakaya and and then came comes back and shows that

Big Lake kick to win last time out at Keeneland.

Now you do have some questions about going off Lasix again, but

in fact the horse ran in 91 and such a competitive 3rd 2 back.

It doesn't give me too much pause there.

I think the extra grounds not going to be an issue and it's

just it's about working out the right trip from that far outside

post. But I do like the number 11 a

little bit of a price of 6 to 1. Yeah, 6 to 1 Proctor sheet.

You get Tyler, who's been really, really good at this meet

as well. By the way, Pepper in the top 2

over and over and over again. I went a little boring in here

for sure with the 8 and the nine pit of Betty, I think out of

that first lady looked really, really good at a mile and I

think she's going to enjoy the extra added distance here.

I think Louis size will have her in the right kind of spot.

Frankly wasn't wasn't terrific at Kentucky Downs but wasn't bad

either before that. Of course, 1 here in the

Anchorage is 4 for six lifetimes.

It's just hard to look past her enjoying the conditions here at

Churchill Downs. B bove right next to her for Joe

Sharp. Just a guy that's always a

problem with Churchill Downs. What our spring training title

here did. Joe Sharp gets irad aboard for

this one was aboard last time in the Dowager but that was a mile

and 1/2 that was yielding go at Keeneland a little bit less to

do here in this spot and should be able to do that.

Has run at the distance before as well.

But I wanted to ask you a different shipper in here in

this race. Awesome checks going to be

making the the trip. Did I miss this race?

No, it is this race #4 in this race for Horacio de Paz, Ricardo

rides again for this one who has been winning in Steak Spread

company in New York. But frankly outside of it, even

in the Athenian, I thought was pretty good as well.

Yeah, this is of course that clearly Horacio has gotten into

good form and awesome Chuck was a horse that kind of very

familiar with obviously ran up here in New York all the time in

New York bred. I can't tell you the number of

times I bet on this horse and lost and then bet against this

horse and lost as well. And so I've never kind of been

on the right side of her, but she's been ultra consistent the

last few times out. Horacio does not ship outside of

state very often with these types.

So when you see him spot her in this particular race, especially

a week or two after we had a slew of turf races that he could

have spotted her in up here in New York and the fact that he is

going to take her down to Kentucky and run her against

Open Company and Grady Stakes Open Company or Listed Stakes

Open Company, I think it says she's pretty live.

And those, listen, if the buyers translate, they're right there

with everybody else. I mean, sure, her last three are

absolutely competitive in this field and 15 to 1 is an insanely

good price. I have her third, much like

quiet side in terms of taking a little bit of a shot at a pretty

big price in this race. Yeah, she's interesting because

I mean, she just is so consistent.

And when I get to route turf, just give me consistent, give me

the horse that's going to be there at the end, and then she

is. And look, it makes sense too.

I mean, I know we see New York bred.

This is a Mendelssohn. This is an awesome.

Again, mayor, this isn't some kind of like badge for breeding

job. This is a.

Very right. This is not a solo meaning out

of a central banker mayor. I mean, this is where we're

we're getting a little bit more, you know, let's just be honest

about things and this is. You'd have to do that you.

Really didn't. Have to do that on this show.

You put me in a terrible spot with the solo meaning people.

Now. What are you doing?

I don't appreciate that at all. Listen, I love.

Listen, I love the folks up at McMahon, which stands.

OK, there it is. All right.

Big fan of that the group up there and they're they're great

bunch of people and they I mean central banker, God bless me who

stands up there as well has been like the.

Leading. Other than that, how is the

play, Mrs. Lincoln? That's right.

This is the whole thing. Happy to say this.

Louis Ramon, I get out with you. Happy Thanksgiving, everybody.

Do you have a go to? Is there a Thanksgiving food you

look forward to every year? I used to.

I love my mom's sweet potato souffle.

I was going to. Say there's always a mom dish, a

grandma dish, an aunt dish. Something like that.

But I will say if I just show up at somebody's house and it's

like, right, it's stuffing I. Just feel like.

As long as you don't screw up the stuffing, we're good to go.

Exactly right. We're having the debate on my

radio show this morning about if, if we've done the thing

where we've jump the shark on Turkey, like like bad mouthing

Turkey. Like we don't need to do that.

Like we know it has one day. It's OK.

Just make a good Turkey. Like just do it like fine.

That's fine. Every day, though, That's the

thing. You're gonna have ham for

breakfast. You could have for dinner

tomorrow. Like it's great sandwiches.

We don't need to mess with ham ham, but Turkey needs spot like

spend a little time make their Turkey nice.

I just, I don't, I don't need, I don't need Turkey slanter in my

life if it's enough already. I love Turkey.

I Turkey's my favorite. Like I I can eat a Turkey

sandwich every day of my life like that.

I love Turkey. I'm just saying.

All right, well, let's move on to front.

Start with the ladies first. This is Revere.

They'll be on the grass. It is a grade too.

How about that? Going a mile and 816300K on the

line. Phillies that are three years

old. This is the actual race that

accompanies the Commonwealth turf.

I apologize for that. Lush lips in here.

Can we beat her? I'm going to try to, you know,

maybe, maybe I'm wrong. Recent $3.7 million purchase at

the Stars of Tomorrow sale. I feel like they really had her

cranked up for that horse that kind of gives herself the

perfect trip a lot of times because she has that good speed

to be able to put herself into kind of a tracking trip a lot of

times behind maybe the initial leader in these turf races.

You know, obviously he's going to be able to save every bit

into ground. I will say the #2 the horse that

finished second tour Laurelin, we did see her come back and

regress off that number. So Laurelin and run a 92.

Nat QE 2 and came back to run a 86, I believe, while finishing

second to Fiona up here in the Jockey Club Oaks.

And so I think that there's a chance that that number maybe

regresses a little bit. I'm going to try to beat her

with a horse a little further outside the number 10.

Pretty picture. Chad Brown play the in Pratt.

12:50 Louis, you can shake your hands, all you I'm sorry we

landed on the same lock, but that's a horse that I just I'm

sorry. You gonna be tend to want to

chat. Yeah.

It's funny doing the things keep talking.

Yes, I. Agree.

There's such an unusual Chad horse, right?

I mean, to kind of break its main into debut.

Then runs in the slop at Monmouth, two of all places

where you don't really see that very often.

Then runs in the slop again or in the Sands Point going a mile

and they showed a little bit of a kick that day.

Didn't have the easiest was why in the first turn had to split

horses, which is never easy to do for young inexperienced

horse. Some runnings out of the tis.

Now mayor. You don't see that sort of bread

very often, but those things can get distance on Slavy and Pratt.

I just think this one makes a lot of sense. 12:50 If Slavy can

work out the trip, this one can work on running.

And there is a decent amount of speed in this race, which is one

of the reasons I do want to try to play against flush flips a

little bit here. OK, so pretty picture also

finished behind Fast Market who's in this field and it

should be pointed out Fast Market came back and won a

greatest stakes next fast right. So it's not as though you talk

about regression. There was no regression coming

out of that race. And I get flabby and Pratt.

That's exactly right. Look, we're not going to get,

we're not going to get 12:50. I this is where I get hopeful

we're not getting 12:50. It's.

OK. Are we going to get 6 to 1?

671 absolutely, because there are other horses in this field.

I mean, look, Lush Lips is going to get a bot.

Yeah, it's I guess it's OK that she's going to get a bunch of

money. It's fine.

And but that that amount of money that she's going to take

because look at no offense to Marine, who's probably going to

win the writing title of Tampa. He's going to win the writing

title of Tampa. Nobody at Churchill knows.

About that they're. Going to take a bunch of money.

Exactly. I'll tell you the other one I'm

interested in here is something about her.

Is the 8 horse in here axle conceptual?

Gets. Oh yeah, yeah.

Do you have this race 1018 just so we can make out together on

the show and just like make it? 1018410184 I can share my screen

at any time. Trying to have a civilization.

We have the exact same topic. Try to have a civilization.

This is the. This is when you.

This is when you play the. Hot ones look at us, look at us,

look at us. Oh man, I that show's amazing,

by the way. It's such a good concept and and

Sean's, whoever does this research does a good job.

They're really, really exceptional.

But the something about it I think is really interesting for

X-Men racing. I'll make the case here third

the last two times out. One of the things I'm watching

here is the weather's not going to be bad.

I want to be clear, but it's going to be cold and it's

probably going to be foggy in one of those real November days

that we get here at Louisville. This is a horse that's run on

all kinds of soft and and peed on downs and this guy.

It's just a horse that that adapts well and and I hear

something about her can can absolutely get up.

And by the way, other Mendelssohn training there

breaking job. So there you go.

I don't like any of this by the way.

So let's talk about the Clark and that's race 11 on Friday.

It is the third oldest race at Churchill Downs.

Used to be run around Derby time.

My Co host, very interesting Co host on Blood Horse Monday made

a spirited case for the Clark to be in the spring interesting and

like it used to be. Now it's been I think something

like 70 or 80 years since it was in the spring and it was

essentially just the moving calendars and everything.

And I told him you would rather go up against one Breeders' Cup

then go against all of the Arabian Peninsula races in this

break. I I think where it is right now,

you get the kind of field that we have here.

This is a good field. This is a really.

Nice field, but it is grade 2 plus.

It is Grade 1 minus frankly, in most years, Matthew, this would

be a Grade 1. And we all be like, yes, let's

this is what a great field. This is awesome.

And then we got spoiled by the Breeders Cup classic field.

We got spoiled by some 3 year old fields this year.

But no, I'm I'm largely with you.

This is a good field man. This is a good one.

The very good field because you have a very nice group of

three-year olds headline by Gosser and magnitude, but you

have a nice group coming back as well with regards to 1st mission

and rattle and roll and some others.

And so that's a really nice field is a full field too.

That's the other nice part is it's not just, you know, a few

big names, which unfortunately happens in these dirt route

races so often where you get a few big names and then you go,

well, we just filled in with the big fan of this race.

You get hit show in here. Yeah, First mission even get a

horse like Cook Creek who can run a hole in the wind every

once in a while. Drunk of Gold is a really

interesting horse who Day is a horse that I've loved since he

was a maiden back, you know, breaking his maintenance as an

Ohio bred. You know, I think he's distance

limited here, but still Willie Deez is a horse that's had some

nice races. So listen, that's this is a nice

deal top to bottom. And you didn't mention the

defending champion in this race and rattle and roll so.

The no I mentioned rattle and roll.

I have selective hearing. All right, so the so the who'd

you land on? You'll you'll see.

I landed on Gospel, that's where I landed.

And you know, Goskar didn't have back and watch that Fayette.

He didn't have the easiest trip. It looks if you just look at the

run lines on paper, you'd go. He got the trip that he kind of,

you know, normally gets that kind of tracking, you know,

trip. He was hung wide around both

turns and gave up a lot of ground doing that and made a

move and got to the front. And then I like that Brendan's

adding the blinkers because I don't think it's going to

necessarily give him that speed to go to the front.

I think it's to help him finish a little bit stronger because

this is kind of what we've seen with Gosker, whether it was in

the Preakness, whether it was in the Haskell, he gets to the

front and maybe gets a little distracted or lazy.

And you saw that again. And the other thing to point out

in that Fayette, they went fast and he was hung wide really

following fast fractions. He was the only one that came

flying from the back, including rattle and roll.

I there's going to be a fast pace for sure, but I don't think

they go quite as fast. I just like this sort of triple

Costco is going to get 4 to one. I'll I'll take that as my price

there. But I I do like that was quite a

bit. And I have first mission in in

my second position. OK.

All right. So you go four to two in the

spot. I have that first mission by

handicapping. I went 3-6 and four.

I do think hit show is the one to beat in here.

I I agree with you about pace meltdown in that race, at least

a little bit. But they did get out.

It was one one 11137. It wasn't what you're describing

though, is the first two furlongs of the race being I

think 22 and then 46. And those are fast for sure.

I think it slowed down enough that it was just that he was the

best horse on that day. We've also seen him closer to

the pace in other races, including in that West Virginia

governor's last year. But the interesting thing with a

horse like this in out of the Cox barn especially is he is, as

much as any trainer I follow, willing to put horses in spots

that you're like, wow, that's an easy spot.

Just build confidence in horses. And I don't, and I think that's

what the Fayette was actually for was to get confidence back

in him after what was not a good Lucas classic, let's call it

what it was. It was not a good race for him.

That was a bad show, frankly. And and I get it, Mystic Dan's

in there and and and Vanishing's in there and we we kind of lose

sight of those things. But it was almost a oh, he's not

a grade one horse kind of race. It was that bad.

And so I think getting him back to that Fayette was more about

let's get him back out there. It's going to be a pace he can

deal with, etcetera. I think it's set up so that he

has confidence going into this one.

I think that the other part is so many of his runs where you're

like, what are they doing with that horse?

We're floor on Giroux, including the Foster and at some point I

get I rat and I just feel better about this type of horse than I

do with floor on Giroux in the irons.

We will move on from those points.

I think the six horse and rattle roll has a really, really

serious shot. I also really think Chunk of

Gold has a serious shot to hit the board here.

You too like big boys shot to hit the board in this spot.

I think he's really interesting and not just because of the

speed figure. Last time he's just a horse in

the Bourbon Flight, for example, in a mile and three sixteenths,

he was there the whole time. He's just he's just a stayer.

I don't know how much he's actually going to get over on

anyone. But I will say this, Ethan W

figured out that if he was going to move this horse up in the

world, he needed to move the rider up in this world.

And so he has done that now 2 races in a row.

He puts Jose on. Last time the horse wins, not

just for fun, he wins by a panel, OK.

And then they're bringing them back this time and he gets

Junior Alvarado. I, I think that's a, that is a

recognition either by ownership or by Ethan W that, hey, we need

to do something a little bit better than what we're doing

before. I think he's got A and I've got

Gosker. Yeah, Chuck Gold.

I love it on Chuck Gold I he's such a cool horse.

I mean, God, $2500 purchase is gonna make over $1,000,000 in

his career. So at some point soon.

And what's so impressive about him is actually if you go back

to Urban Flight 2 back, he loses to brother Kenny.

Well, brother Kenny just. So when is he a part of Derby?

Yesterday, so that was no slouch, you know, not up front

and it just kind of goes in America around.

And and so those last few races he's really kind of stepped up

and you know, certainly the buyer last time would indicate

he's ready to compete with these boys.

And I just think at 12:50 he presents outstanding value if

you go and like you said, even if you don't think maybe he's a

win candidate man, throwing him in exact his trifecta just makes

all the sense in the world. Yeah, I'm not sure.

That I would have him winning this race there's certainly a

scenario and frankly the clerk of all of these races does give

us like the bodies of the world right those guys are yeah win

this race and so I mean chunk of gold would fit into that kind of

group. But like you said, it's just

it's the price, it's the preservationist, it's those

kinds of things after we've disperse them.

But the the anyways, the yes should be a fun race.

I lated 364. How could.

You it should be 4/2 what I I-4293, you know, magnitude is a

horse. Listen, he's been the butt of a

joke a few times where I always joke that people thought he was

somehow good value in two to one against sovereignty.

Literally one of the funniest things I've ever heard in my

life. But and when bracket Buster put

him away at the quarter pole, I said, this is going to be fun

and the and indeed it was. And but as much as I ragged on

magnitude and everybody back to that day, something different,

which was I can pass horses from the back and I can come from off

the pace if things don't work out for didn't have the easiest

trip now by days. It didn't run particularly great

the Breeders cup classic, but that's a whole different caliber

of horse we're talking about there.

So I'm not going to hold that against magnitude.

And honestly, if you look at the buyers, three of the last four

races outside of Saratoga was we feel very competitive within

this field needs to work out the trip from the far side, but but

a horse that I think is going to be in the mix at some point.

Yeah, magnitude the mile and an AT has plenty of stretch twice

frankly to work out the trip. It'll be he'll be totally fine.

Yeah. All right, we move on to

Saturday first race we're going to talk about.

His race for the Ed Brown Stakes is named for trainer and jockey

Ed Brown, who won the the Belmont in 1870 as the jockey

aboard Kingfisher, but won the Kentucky Derby training Babe

Babe in 1877. He's been a Hall of Famer for a

very, very long time. He was actually born into

slavery evolving before going on to an incredible career in horse

training. There are so many.

It's amazing, Matthew, the number of stories like that in

Kentucky and it is a reminder of obviously a very shameful

chapter of our our our country's, you know, collective

history, but also just how agrarian this sport is.

That's so the earliest mid 19th century most right.

So guy like like Ed Brown, who who probably worked on a horse

farm, unfortunately, as as as a slave, it had gained so much

knowledge and other things that it translated.

It's amusing the number of stories like that here in

Kentucky. Now, you'd love to start that

story a very different way, but unfortunately he didn't.

But you have an Ed Brown part of that very, very long tradition.

You could read about him, by the way, at the the National Hall of

Fame website. He's got a really cool story and

I encourage everyone to go check it out.

But it is race for. We see Boyd shipping in for this

6 1/2 furlong race on the dirt here. 2 year olds Matthew and

225 online. You try to be Boyd.

No, no, I'm not going to try to be Boyd and I, I know that the

effort basis of the last five years.

So I know that Bob shipping out of California has not been

particularly winning the last few times.

That said, he's bringing a contingent now.

He's not bringing Explorer, like you said, but he's bringing a

contingent. He's not just bringing Boyd.

He's got a couple of maids that are coming out the year and I

got the Cherokee we'll talk about in the Jockey Club.

And so I I just think Boyd can roll here.

And this is a horse that I think is pretty special and it's

interesting. Isn't stretching him out right

away and is letting him run at 6 1/2.

I'll be interested to see what that means for the long term

future of whether or not he kind of continues to progress or

whether Bob keeps him as a sprinter.

I think that's an interesting thing to look at.

But you got a violence out of the street, boss, Mayor.

I mean, you should be able to get two turns.

I mean, mile and a 16th, mile and an 18th the least.

So, you know, we'll see. But this has outstanding speed

draw the outside too which I just think it makes everything

so much. Easier.

Yeah. Flopping prep will ride.

Tyler had the initial amount in September in a maiden breaker at

Del Mar. I'll tell you who's going to

finish second. You ready?

Cold, exact, very smear style going 62.

I am taking Babrovsky here, who's been on the turf last two

times out Dale Romans. But before that did win in a

maiden effort at Saratoga on the dirt before that, ran really

well at 5 1/2 at Trishill. Frankly, just got caught at the

very end of that race in a first effort in June.

If you look at the work, the work tab back to dirt.

One of those was a bullet before a turf effort in the Indian

summer, which frankly, he almost won anyway.

Yes, but that did win the skid board odd turf.

I don't mind the the the switch here.

I think this one actually makes a lot of sense.

Give me but brofsky to hit the border.

I'm not going to argue with you on Bob Brofsky at all.

And by the way, that was a tough trip.

He got in that last race at Keeneland.

That was not ideal because he got checked up at one point and

had to kind of re rally Schwarzenegger just had to.

It's funny. And by the way, you should have

ended that by going, my name is Louis Rubo, and I approve this

message because, you know, with Yale Roman's not running

percentage down in Kentucky, it's a lot of fun.

But you know, I went to a big price too for a second because

if I'm going to go even money chalk up top, I went three.

I went big Dom. I went big Dom as my big price

in this race. It didn't work.

Let's just cut right back and I love when I see trainers do this

with two and three-year olds rather than getting Derby fever,

rather than trying to do something just we know what we

have, let's be really good at what we have and we're going to

cut back. We're going to put the blinks on

and you got a McKenzie. Jose Ortiz is up.

He rode the horse in debut where he wanted to beat Doctor Kapoor,

who's a horse we're going to talk about in a couple of races

running in the Safi. So I like Big Gob at 15 to one.

I'll take that horse underneath in the ice cold.

Yeah, I, I'm very tempted in a, in a world where I feel strongly

about the races around this woman to play a pick three where

I use the 2-3 and four, because I think all of them can

actually, Yeah. And then you just, you play the

lottery ticket at that point for sure.

But I, I think if you could beat those other horses in that part

of the sequence, boy, oh boy, you could really, you can catch

some pretty special kinds of sense in this spot.

They're throwing the blinkers on to have him even closer to the

front in this field. And I think Gnaw's getting back

to the six furlongs here where he is undefeated and picks up

Tyler. I think all three of those

horses can win for sure. And so I'll, I'll, I'll push

this way. Is this a Boyd or all kind of

race? I would say it's a honestly, for

me, it would be a Boyd or one through 4 because I don't really

love Strawdale at all and I just I not a big for Yaupon, but all

right, fine. And so I just you know, I just

don't really see it for that one and I know broke its maiden last

time out, but you know, picks up too well.

But I still am just like, not necessarily sold, but yeah, I, I

think if you, yeah, if you're playing against Boyd, then you

got to toss them completely and just, yeah, I mean, at that

point might as well include everybody else because the

difference between 4 and five horses not, not that much on the

in the yeah, in the ticker. Do you think, ya pone, it's

going to make a lighting joke about breeding, but I'm not

going to do that. It's a forensic.

I like Yaupon too. I mean, I I like Yaupon, but I

just like 1.3 million first printer is just that's the other

thing is it's it's more so you paid 1.3 million and we're going

to be sprinting this horse enlisted stakes races like and

it's a little on the Derby trail, not running in the Ed

Brown stakes. A lot of times.

I know who's the Lucas horse a couple years ago who ran in the

Ed Brown and then kind of made the run, if I'm not mistaken,

but and and ran D Wayne ran them constantly and I and I'm

forgetting the name. So it's not uncommon to see

horses kind of come out of this race and then stretch out and

progress a little bit. But yeah, just a little

concerning that Steve hasn't here.

Not on the bigger spot, maybe. I am trying to see who the

historical winners of this race are.

Wasn't like a season or anything.

Wasn't I mean like not? That it might have been a

season, yeah. It wouldn't surprise me if it

was because that horse only ran 708 times per year when he would

not surprise me. Let's move on though to the

other 2 year olds. Princess on the card it is.

The Fern is on the Philly side of the next two year olds here.

6 1/2 on the dirt for $225,000. And a fun group in here as well,

including one that I'm not sure why they're in here, which means

I'm definitely going to bet them.

And so the old Do you know what Fern Creek is?

I no, I don't. I'd imagine it's a Creek near

some ferns in Kentucky. How about that?

But I could be wrong. This guy with the English

skills. It is a neighborhood

neighborhood about 8 miles to the southeast of where I'm

sitting. Are there a lot of rich people

there? Because I don't think they name

no. That's what's crazy.

Why are we naming things Ferns Creek?

I think that's fantastic. It's a very nice part of town.

How about that? Yes, if you want for Gary, Yeah.

This Saturday we have the Bushwick Stakes up here in New

York, so. Park at Delaware, it's fine you.

Know listen, it's funny and it's there's not a crazy amount of

speed in this race and I ultimately went to the #7 on

time girl 3 to one for Brad Cox coming out of a second in that

Myrtlewood last time out. I rat.

I don't know if anybody's going to be able to really catch her.

So I just I like her in this spot and I just think the

outside poster doesn't really kind of speed your outside.

So even if the one decides to really go solemn valve with

Brian Hernandez. We'll see.

I mean, that horse is good for her, but I think one time girl

just kind of sits right off that pace and I don't think it's too

crazy. The point is fine, Chardonnay is

your favorite of five to two is more of a closer and I just

don't think it sets up for her in this particular spot.

So I'm going to go with the seven instead.

Yeah, I like a stalker here. Page Turner, the two horses

here. Jose picks up the mount.

I like that a lot, frankly, for Cherie Devoe, this is a daughter

of Army mule. We're seeing those come on as

well. Pioneer the excuse me on the

damn side. I do wonder, as this is her

third race, if they won't try to stretch her out later on,

actually. And so I think this is 1 where

we see her right now spreading. But eventually, Matthew, as you

pointed out, sometimes you need these races still before you get

into your spring or whatever. I've been turning lights out of

key and this is just the this is what Cherie does the best is

this kind of layoff. She gives horses about a month

and a half, brings them back. Usually they run really well.

And then the second time that she's shooting for, I think this

was always on the map for them. And so I'll use page Turner on

top there. I went seven in my second spot.

I do think fine Chardonnay is in here.

Here's the horse. I don't know what to do with so

I'm definitely throwing her my tickets is Mackinac and that is

the 9 horse. I call it Mackinac because I'm

from Michigan. What do you call it Mac Mac.

That's an act of that would be an act of violence in Michigan

like someone would someone would have that burned your car by

now, It would be. Over.

Mine was like 11 years old. My dad and I were on a baseball

road trip out to Cincinnati and then Cleveland and then

Pittsburgh and then back to Pennsylvania, back to

Reddington. And we were driving on the TA

Turnpike and we passed Donegal, OK?

And I said, oh, we got exit for Dungal coming up.

And my dad looks to me and goes, what language are you trying to

speak right now, Dungal? It's Dungal.

And I was like, oh, it's all done in gal.

I just said done gal. And so, yeah, listen, if you

come to me after 15 years of teaching, the one thing I can

pronounce is first and last names.

I'm very good at that because I would practice every semester

for first day. So I didn't mess with somebody's

name on roll call. But yeah, the horse names, you

know. And then sometimes if you

pronounce it the right way, and then, you know, the ownership

group goes, Oh, no, no, it's this way you go.

Next go where is that K? Next go other with this horse

only ever been on turf and try the two turns in the Jessamine.

By the way, I would put and I'm not exaggerating when I say

this, I know it's a 2 year old race, but I would put the field

for the Jessamine up against any full top to bottom field that

we've had in a horse race in the United States this year.

I thought it was that that was great.

It was very, very it. Was a. 1011 very good 2 year old

Phillies doing the thing. OK Mackinaw finishes at the

bottom of that field. That's why I bring it up.

OK what is this? Never been on dirt but has

started to work on dirt. The works are fine.

This is a twirling candy in a name that we've already

mentioned a violence is good for.

This is also Rusty Arnold, I think not accidentally putting

this horse here. He could put her in a non to

whatever, right? I mean anywhere that he wants.

Ran her in a restricted race to get her to break her bait and

all that kind of stuff. Am I just over reading into this

one? No, I don't think you're over

reading into this and it's interesting.

This is one who I I think is, is definitely interesting and the

turf of the dirt angle thrusty is 1 in particular because in

the Grade 1 going turf to dirt, I want to say maybe it was turf

and then went to dirt and then ran another big one on dirt as

well, killing sort of and run dirt turf and then went to dirt

and really popped. And so I know I think there's a

plenty of logic with that angle and I think that, you know, you

might as well take a shot with it.

You're right. The violence influence

underneath is all dirt and whirling Candy, as you said, can

kind of do a little bit of everything.

Yes, more turf, but but not that much more turf.

And so and yeah, absolutely makes a lot of sense because as

much as I like the seven, I'm not in love with the seven.

And none of the buyers for any of these horses really are that

much better than anybody else. So I think, you know, the idea

of perking up on a new surf was really not out of the question.

Yeah, do you think saliva can get it down from the?

Rail I I don't love the rail in those sorts of spots first time

against winners. I do worry a little bit has been

training very well six to one is an honest price probably going

to end up on my ticket though in some way.

It may be a little defensive, but yeah, it would not shock me

if that was good. It was able to back up the the

last run as. Pick three starts with.

By the way, just want to say going back to the conversation

earlier, Dewayne Lucas Horton question was just that was the

horse that ran in the Ed Brown and then ended up going on two

years ago. Was that just this year, or did

he have like American promise for American freedom this year?

Won the Virginia Derby and then won the Yeah.

By the way, just Steal American Promise are the exact same

horse. They're big Lucas.

They run every three weeks. They're they finish 7th plackets

that these are the same. No, no offense to Chad or the

owners groups. There's about 15 Chad Brown

horses who are all the same, and they do it when somebody brings

them up. I'm like, Oh yeah, that one.

Didn't it hurt this one three days ago?

No. How could you mix them up?

I'm mixing them up. That's well, the late pick 3

will start with the Jockey Club. It is a grade 2 mile and a 16th

on the dirt here at Churchill Downs just down the street. 2

year olds in this one, this race, Matthew, it either ends up

being massively important or just a nothing race.

It really is incredible. A couple years ago we had three

Derby starters finished top three.

That was the White of Ario year, of course, before he went on to

win the Florida Derby. And then I think last year just

no one came out of the race. So and then once in a while the

Remsen really matters and then it doesn't and blah, blah, blah.

I will say this though, I don't look at the Breeders Cup

Juvenile anymore for my Derby winner.

I'm essentially done doing that. That is a championship for two

year olds. It is very rare that we get the

transformation year one year 2H2 to H3, etcetera.

And so I I look more at races like this, frankly for.

I I think if you're looking for a Derby winner, it makes more

sense to start looking at races like this.

You know, the Remsen, you know, some of these early prep races

to kind of find that. That said, since the advent of

the point system, the juvenile winner does end up in the field

of the Kentucky Derby quite a bit.

So if you know, Ted Noffe's maybe the safest bet of being in

the starting gate right now for the first Saturday in May, for

sure, whether he can get a mile and a quarter, whether he can

you. Know you?

Know that sort of thing, we'll see.

But I agree with you and listen, it was interesting.

I think I, I was doing a little bit of research on this for our

YouTube show, the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky

Oaks, which I do with my colleague Kaylee Shapiro.

And we were looking at the Kentucky Jockey Club.

And you're right, it either is very important or not important

at all. But it has also produced, aside

from that 2022 year where the White of Mario, the smile happy,

it also has produced 4 Kentucky Derby starters two different

times since the advent of the points system that was in 2015

and 2018. So it, it can be like this

really important race or like you said, you then go like 4

years and there's nothing. And so you're like, all right, I

don't know. But but when it's important,

it's really important. It's important because we see

the names Mcpeak, Cox, Mcpeak, Asmussen, Joseph Baffert and

Asmussen, so this is not an unimportant race.

Yep. $40,000 on the line here. A bunch of Derby points as well.

You know what, Matthew? I'll go first here.

Yes, please do I'm. Just going to go ahead.

OK, well, I'm going to be incredibly boring and pick

Further Ado as my top selection. I wanted to try to pick against

this horse. I was probably going to try to

use Safi's horse to maybe be a little bit smart Doctor Kapoor.

Ultimately, it was a little bit of a calculation of whether or

not I think this horse is going to regress off that 98, how much

that horse is going to regress off that 98 and still win.

I think that horse could regress 5-6 points and still potentially

win this race. So I don't think you necessarily

need to back up another 98 to win.

It's a gun runner out of the Sky Mesa mare draws a little further

outside. This horse should want to run

for days, and that's exactly what you saw.

I'm not at all deterred by the fact that this horse took three

starts to break its maid. You know who else took three

starts to break their maiden sovereignty?

And you know the first time he did it going a mile on a 16th.

And so that's exactly what you see out of Further Ado.

Suddenly we go on a mile on a 16th and we look like a world

beater. Now, I don't know if he beat

much of anything in that race, but you win any race by 20

lengths and that's going to be notable.

Brad Cox, you know, I rather tease Junior.

It's a really short price, but I just think that's the horse that

looks really, I don't want to say special, but that horse

looks like 1 you you absolutely want to make note of because I

think this one's going to be on the Derby trail quite a while

all. Right.

Well, I was going to go a different direction.

I was going to try to be. Creative and I'll go ahead.

I would hear it. With the son of Global Campaign

Universe 7 here and this to me is more about watching Kenny

Runners over the last couple of years than anything else.

And if you look at this one, this is a stunningly logical

progression to get to this point.

Open our career at 7. Winner at Saratoga, go to a mile

at Aqueduct over one turn in the champagne.

Simply put, not good enough at that point, but was only the

second start. Gets bumped at the beginning and

still frankly passes horses throughout that race. 9 horse

field still finishes in 3rd even if it is up the track.

Gets the two turns at Churchill. First time in the street since

last out. Had the lead at the top of the

stretch frankly and was right there under Jose Ortiz.

I don't love that he's jumping off but I also think it's

telling that Brian's jumping on because if this horse is going

to be on the Derby trail, who is Kenny Mcpeek and a want it's

going to be brown. OK.

So it makes sense to me that after the injury and we had it

Brian by the way, on blood horse Monday.

If anybody wants to go back and watch that talks about this

horse. I think that this is just the

natural progression and I think getting to this point has made

all the sense gets to go to the two turns a second time at

Churchill where he didn't show his ass last time in the in the

street sense. He was very good and frankly

incredible that day. If incredible ran the race that

he ran in the street sense in this field, he'd win this race.

It was that good. I think he could take a step

forward off of that effort. So give me I'm I'm actually

going to try him straight up give me universe.

I no, I listen. I like it.

I like it. And I think that it's funny,

this summer when up in Saratoga, Kaylee Shapiro and I went out to

cover Anna coming out. I think one of the last days up

in Saratoga and Kenny had everybody out and you could come

out to the barn and see Anna and it's funny, he pulled out

Universe and he goes, let me show you next year's Kentucky

Derby winners. And right now that's Kenny B.

And Kenny to some extent, but it also speaks to he was very high

on this horse and he that was after the horse broke its main

and he was like, we're going to the champagne.

And it was exactly what you said.

He he had this charted out where he wanted to take this horse.

And I think this horse is dangerous.

I have this horse in my top three.

I like Universe quite a bit, so I that I would not be shocked at

all to see this horse take a big step forward.

And Kenny, he knows how to get these young ones to know how to

run. You know, he's won this race

plenty of times. Yeah, and this is such a, a, a

Mcpeak $75,000 purchase. Like it just, it just all reeks

of exactly what they do. This smells like Mystic Daniel.

It really doesn't. When I see Kenny with a horse

that's like 75 or less, I'm just like, this horse is going to

just like, I'm just like, he is so good at identify just, and

they all have the same physicals.

And it's this typical thing where it's like a nothing sire

with a big female family. And you see the horse and just

physically he talks about they have a big hip, they have a

certain walk and it's just he can spot that stuff and see it

better than almost anybody else out there and he can find these

bargains. And you go, man, how does Kenny

Mcpeek have a $40,000 Derby horse?

How does Kenny Mcpeek turn a $40,000 fast Anna into the horse

of the year? You know, and that's what he

does. The other part is I was telling,

I was talking with someone the other day, might have been Sean

actually, and and I said there's only twice in a big race like

Derby level, Breeders' Cup level, whatever, where I looked

at a horse, it said that's my horse.

This year was one. It was sovereignty.

That was one. It was just, it was easy.

I saw him. Oh man, it would have been,

yeah. The Saturday, the week before

Derby, he was in. Bill Mott was in his.

Bill Mott was in his helmet. They were out on that.

And I said, whose horse is that? And they into the side and it

was Noverty and I was done. The other one is this.

This won't surprise you if you've been around her, but

Serengeti Empress before. The Oh yeah, Tom's horse, Yeah.

She she was off to the side and I couldn't see the totality of

her. And I went, oh, whose Derby

starter is that? Yeah, I think it was Jenny

Reese, who's like, that's a Philly, Louis, that's a Philly.

Who is that? Sergei Empress.

I'm done, I'm done. I just saw her once.

I was done. And she ended up 13 one.

So thank God Doctor Kapoor is in here for sappy and I want to

make a couple of comments about this horse because I I think

it's really interesting. The Mackenzie's are very

difficult for me to figure out at this point because there have

been a couple that are willing to do the distance, but many

that do not want to. Now my honest teeth is one of

those like at the bottom of the two turn distances, all those

things. Maybe that'll be fine, but this

is 1 and I'm sure you do this with numerous trainers, but this

is one that Safi started at Saratoga and then moved to

Keeneland, right OK, right. During during a time when this

one could have won by 1000 in in Florida, right?

Could have just Oh my yeah, forget about a billion in

Florida. Picked off a couple races for 45

and 55,000. Whatever.

He didn't do that. He started this one at Saratoga.

Almost won on debut seemed to got to get better with a little

bit of added distance. This is the kind of horse that

wins the 2 year old race like this, no?

And Jose stays jumps on like leaves universe to go.

Now I agree with you about everything with Brian and it

makes sense that Kenny would go back to Brian for that all that

so that that all makes sense. But you still Jose hops on this

one. The buyers I think are real.

You know, lost to a horse and big dog who I talked about

earlier, who I who I think is a real upset shot over Boyd horse

has outstanding speed, but like you said, improved with distance

and improved with a little bit more conditioning has been

training at Churchill. I mean this this doesn't feel

like your typical Safi come up from Gulfstream where the horse

romped by 8 with Edgar Zaya's up on a $43,000 maiden claimer.

You know it. This feels like our maiden

special weight. So this feels like a pretty

serious horse. The buyers are there that 87

doesn't need to get much better. I agree with you about the

Mackenzies. You have the kitten joy's

influence underneath. So you would imagine going a

little bit longer is not going to it's going to be an issue.

I do wonder if this horse might be better on Turfers and Vedic

at some point. But like, you know, it just

could be a very precocious runner.

But I still think these Mackenzies can get they can get

two turns, they can get two turns.

But I do think there's questions about whether he can get a Derby

runner sort of a thing. But I think a mile and a 16th

mile and an eighth, under the right circumstances, he can get

that. Pad day mile Horseman.

Nothing wrong with being a pad day mile.

You make a lot of money being a pad day mile horse, a lot of

money. But this just feels like a sappy

special and so I just wanted to point that one out.

We did not mention the Baffert in here in the two horse and

Cherokee Nation comes in a maiden.

I don't think it's an accident. Indy shipping, though.

No, especially when you see what happened with Mr. AP.

Who for? Vlad Sarin.

Who ran second? In the Breeders Cup Futurity or

really Brewers Cup Juvenile, I should say to Ted Nafi and this

one really battled Mr. AP right down the stretch.

So certainly I think a formidable horse in this

particular spot that was going A2 turn mile.

So even though we're going a little bit longer, has that two

turn experience, which I do think is really important.

Sometimes when you see these horses come out of A1 turn mile

either up here at Aqueduct or at Churchill Down.

Now you go a mile and a 16th and two turns.

But these California horses, those mile races are two turns.

I just think the dynamics are a little bit different and it

showed a lot and obviously a lot of expectations, $1.15 million

and you have a not this time who could do a little bit of

anything out of an Indian, Indian Charlie Mayer.

So again, distance really should not be an issue for this one at

all. I think is pretty dangerous in

this spot as all Bob horses are. And on top of that, you have

Flavian Pratt up on them out. She didn't make the trip, so

Explorer is out of the Grade 2 Goldenrod last race we'll talk

about here on the horse Racing happy hour.

Luger Beau Matthew to Santa's hanging out with you Want to

thank our sponsors this week and never say die Bourbon a great

option for you ahead of Thanksgiving.

If you want to grab a bottle on your way to your Thanksgiving

party this weekend. The horse player in your life

would absolutely love it. Does Cox end up with favoritism

here? Life of joy, you think?

Probably does end up with favoritism in this particular

race and, and understandably so. Undefeated in the stakes winner

last time, outgoing 2 turns at Churchill Downs.

Ultimately, though, I'm going to go, I'm going to take a swing.

I just released my top five, you know, Derby and Oaks contenders.

My number one Oaks contender is in this race and she's 12:50.

I'm going #11 Bella Ballerina as my top selection for President

Walsh. This is the half sibling to

Pretty Mischievous, who by the way won being an important race.

The Goldenrod is the the race for the Kentucky Oaks Has

produced the last four winners out of this race.

It is remarkable. Has produced multiple oak

starters the last five years. This is a race you need to be

paying attention to. Godolphin, Brendan Walsh, Tyler

Mccaff, Leone from off the pace and debut.

The second place horse came back to win next time out as well and

more importantly improve the buyer speed figure.

I think this one can move forward from that. 70 has to

work out the trip from the outside post, but a 12:50,

especially with Explorer out, I think is absolutely worth a shot

in this particular spot. I love Brad's horse here.

I think life enjoys the horse to beat for sure.

I want to ask you though, let me count the ways the New York bred

comes in. Longest run is a mile over the

one turn mile at Aqueduct but was very impressive in the made

mist. Made a mist getting Joel Rosario

again. Is she good enough in open

company? I don't think so.

I'm a little skeptical of this one.

Like if you made me, I think Awesome Check has a better

chance of winning OK that race than she does of winning this

race. If you've talked about the two

New York Reds, you know, certainly precocious and was

able to get the job done. I don't know how good those

fields were. And I think we're stepping up

into a whole new caliber of competition here.

And so I'm a little worried about that horse that what will

be a very short price now that Explorers scratch.

So that's the other concern is like, are you going to get 5 to

2 on her? And if you're getting 5 to 2 on

her, I'm really going to be playing.

Against the longer shot I'm going to try and here is the 9

in Atropa Jose Ortiz. Makes all the sense.

They tried the extra distance last time.

She really liked it at Keeneland and frankly, Matthew, the setup

at Keeneland usually over a mile on the 16th, you don't see that

kind of margin because the the stretch isn't long enough for

you to to take away from another horse.

And so for her to have won by that kind of distance and I get

it. It's measure.

It's Kayla's comet. That's not the kind of two year

old Philly that we're going to see in this field.

I I still was so impressed by her stretch out.

This is in a mischief and frankly, we can talk about Cyrus

all day. The best sire going is the the

broodmare sire burner. That's it.

I mean that is I think on that side of things.

I don't know that it's close. The competition's open and shut

there for me. This one just absolutely royally

bread $450,000 purchase of Keeneland in September last.

I just this one all sets up. I think it makes total sense.

I think at the end of the day I'll have the 9 on top here.

I actually have the 9 seconds so I I don't disagree with you and

I think that the the 9 I mean in the mischief out of the

Bernardini mayor, Jeez, where did we see that before?

Could it could it be sovereignty?

And I agree Bernardini's the best fruit marry influence.

You get a brood mare by you know, you find a mare for from

Bernardini and you're just going to print money.

And that's what it what's all brood mare.

She's a blame out of a Bernardini mirror because

Bernard is the second best brood mare retires the blame.

And so it's just like when she retires, like whatever you need

to bring to that because she's going to throw some runners and

I just but yeah, no, I agree from the pedigree standpoint,

makes a ton of the next time. And more importantly improved

good buyers feed figure going longer at Churchill Downs.

I I just think there's a lot to like there about a tropho.

The number 9 at 8:00 to 1:00. Very honest price for Cherie

who's gotten off to a hot start. Jose's up.

So no, tons makes tons of sense in this particular leg of a pick

five sequence. Well, there you go, he's Matthew

DeSantis. He's up there at naira bets.

Of course, go get the deposit match right now with them up

there at the naira bets. All the good things.

Have a great Thanksgiving, my friend.

What's so the does your dad like step up the dad shirts even into

next level dad shirts on Thanksgiving or is it just it's

just comment with him that he doesn't even have to do that?

He doesn't even have to do it for Thanksgiving.

But what I'm going to tell you is my dad has created a new

holiday. He's created a holiday called

Twixmas. It's between Christmas and New

Year's, it's between and Twixmas.

It's on December 28th and I would expect on Twixmas Day you

are going to see a dad shirt like no other.

And there's going to be probably the top three buttons open.

There's going to be some chest hair.

It's going to be a very dad like affair and it's going to be,

it's going to be pretty fun. We call that the Holy Innocent's

Day of my house, but whatever, Twixmas.

Different strokes for different folks.

You know, oh man, well, he's a he's a dad shirt Dave.

His name is Matthew DeSantis. We appreciate him jumping on the

podcast. Have a great set of days, man.

A fascinating time of year in the the horse racing world.

Yes, I can't wait for that. Yeah, no, Louis, thank you for

having me on and and happy thanks to you in the family.

There you go, Matthew says. I appreciate him jumping on the

show today here on the horse racing.

Happy. I will be back next week with

another edition of the program. We'll start getting into,

frankly, Derby preps. They're running at fairgrounds

doing different things. And so we're going to be going

heavy, heavy Derby preps, obviously starting with the

Junkie Club this weekend. But thank you to Matthew and

thank you to you for hanging out with us on this rendition of the

program. Thanks to our friends at Never

Say Die Bourbon, Never Say Die bourbon.com.

We're checking out the great story over there with our

friends at Never Say Die. We'll be back next week.

We hope you are too.