Weekend Preview | Matthew DeSantis

We'll bring in Matthew DeSantis from Naira Bets.

All the good stuff there in a very, very other, another cold

part of the country. Matthew Horry, man, you doing

all right? I'm doing well, staying warm.

I hope you are too Louis, and hope all the listeners are as

well. Yeah, this is one of those.

And I haven't done the PSA yet, Matthew, but like if you are

cold in your house, ask for help because we are unfortunately

people are are are literally dying from this, Matthew.

It's that serious. And so we are not running races

here in Kentucky. We are not running races in New

York. We will be running, of course,

down in South Florida and in LA. I did have to laugh though,

these arrogant dudes out in LA talking about if you want

guaranteed weather. And I'm like, didn't you all

have to push opening day back three days?

Like it rained so much that you could even go to your track?

Like get out of here with all this.

Yeah, I mean, you got what you got wildfires, you got mud

slides, you got floods, you got earthquakes.

I mean, yeah, they they got plenty going on out.

There you get out of here with that Matthew DeSantis with us.

He's at failed to Venice on the socials wanted to get him on

ahead of a a couple of preps this time of year.

Go ahead and admit. Have you really been trying to

line up your dirty dirty winner before this, or do you wait for

preps of the 20 and 50 point variety to really dive into

that? I kind of wait a little bit.

I know there's always an eagerness to be the first person

to get on a potential horse, but I call me crazy.

I'd rather be right than first. So I sit there and wait and kind

of like to evaluate. I think particularly as the

preps get a little bit longer, you start to see some of these

horses that are probably meant to be sprinters start to maybe

fade off the page a little bit. And obviously the news

yesterday, Ted Noffy off the Triple Crown trail, that's the

other part of this, is you get these types of injuries or

setbacks or, you know, these types of issues with horses.

And so I just try to appreciate these races, evaluate them as

they come. And sometimes you have a horse

really pop off the page. Certainly works.

Like Paladin for me is one that I definitely have circled and

highlighted. But I can't wait to see him in

the Risen Star. I think that's going to be a big

test and that's going to be a lot of fun in a couple of weeks.

Yeah, should be really great. Matthew DeSantis with us.

I'll tell you, a race to watch tomorrow might not be on

people's main radars, but Baffert's got three maidens in a

maiden special weight at Santa Anita.

Race 6 tomorrow. That's at 6:00, about 6:10 local

time here in Louisville between Duntoff, a horse named Crude

Velocity, who's the son of Beau Liam, and then he's got 1, is a

Kazushi. There it is.

He had an intimischief named Potente who's been working like

a maniac, so always on the lookout.

I'll never know who's going to be out last or wherever they

might be. Matthew, but I think race 6

tomorrow, that's an Anita. Add it to your list of races to

watch for sure. I 100% agree.

And Potente to your point is a $2.4 million son of Into

Mischief. So hello, there's some

expectations there. And you know, it's interesting.

Chad Brown had a horse the Sunday after Pegasus Canelo Leto

who debuted and I tweeted something out and basically

said, hey, this is right around the same time Mage debuted a few

years ago. And that trajectory has become

all the more common. Of course, if you remember,

justify not breaking his main until very late.

So I think Bob, in particular out West, it's got a few horses

that we have yet see that have a little something to say on the

Triple Crown trail. But even some of those horses

debuting late at Gulfstream Park, there's an Ave. for them

to get and end up in the starting gate of Kentucky Derby.

You mentioned Gulfstream Park. Let's head there.

Race 10 on tomorrow's card is the Ford Gal Grade Three Oaks

Prep here, 7 furlongs on the dirt, their one turn at

Gulfstream Park. Grade 3 money on the line as

well, $175,000 on time girl. The nine to five favorite for

Brad Cox. She was aware of the Fern Creek

last out at 6 1/2 furlongs. She's a daughter of Not This

time, so I do think that Brad probably thinks of her as at

least a candidate for the Kentucky Oaks.

Some other interesting ones in here though, one that you saw on

debut up there is Imperatrus Imperatrist.

How Imperatrist? What?

How we saying her name? Imperatrist.

Yeah, Imperatrist. Look at me pronouncing things.

Todd Pletcher and John Velasquez, of course.

Who do you like at this one though?

I mean mythical comes in a 5 to 2 as well.

Yeah, there's a lot of speed in this race and seven furlongs is

a tricky distance with this much speed and so I was actually kind

of looking for a little bit of a price to come from off the pace.

I landed on the other Brad Cox horse, the number 5.

Sneaky good for Ellen J Foxwood and NK Racing.

This is an end of mischief out of a tonalist Mayor $450,000

purchase perfect 2 for two broke its maiden impressively at

Keeneland and then went and won at Tampa.

And what impressed me about that Tampa race was the horse broke

its maiden in gate to wire fashion, then goes to yeah.

But basically it's sitting last in a six furlong Sprint and just

envelops the entire field and wins for fun.

I thought that was really impressive to see.

The horse can do things a few different ways.

Like I said, I think there's a lot of speed.

I think sneaky good is going to start picking them off at the

top of the stretch. And I think you're getting 8 to

one on a horse like that's very impressive.

And the other horse I'll give a shout out to that's a huge price

is the #7 Holland Dr. 15 to one for Will Walden.

This is the half sibling to Matoli and Hot Rod Charlie, so

there is some expectations here from a pedigree standpoint.

Side by Practical Joke 7 furlong shouldn't be an issue.

Another one that likes to come from off the pace, but that's

I'm going to go a little bit of price shopping in the forward

gal. Holland Dr. already a winner

Gulfstream Park and her only attempt there over 6 1/2

furlongs. Just has to go an extra half

furlong in this one. The aforementioned Will Walden,

by the way. Off to a terrific start. 5 for

20 to start to meet down there at Gulfstream Park.

We're talking with Matthew DeSantis from up at Naira

Appreciate him jumping Audra Bow and Co on ESPN 680-1057.

We've got you till noon. The sweetest chant.

Another 3 year old Philly race here, but we move to the turf

for this one Matthew Mile on the 16th there save money 100,000 a

$175,000. Excuse me on the line in this

one and our guy Brian Nadeau set some warning lines has Ginger

Brew as excuse me, the winner of the Ginger Brew sister Troy yen

as the favorite here. I think she's a worthy favorite.

And frankly, Matthew, we saw actually that that turf form at

Gulfstream translated to the the turf races as part of the

Pegasus World Cup Series as well last weekend.

So I don't think a crazy thing to have her at 2:00 to 1:00.

Is she the favorite here? I think so.

I think she's very much so the horse to beat, particularly with

the news that was reported yesterday that the number 11

Spirit Doll is likely to scratch out of the race.

I think maybe if you want to get creative, the number 10

aggressive Lime. But here's the thing.

There is 0 pace in this race. This is kind of the opposite of

the forward Dow. And I think Mario Gutierrez was

sister Corrine is just going to get up there on the front end

for Brian Lynch, who, oh, by the way, is hitting at 33% during

the championship beat. And I think just is going to be

able to take him gate to wire if somebody wants to go from her

inside, certainly can just track right off the pace.

But she's in such good form. Four straight wins has never

lost once she's gotten off the dirt.

And I think she's a very worthy favorite.

And I feel like she's probably a horse that you can feel pretty

confident singling in a late pick five sequence.

Sister Troy. Anne, ridden by Mario Gutierrez

and all of her races, started her career at six furlongs on

the dirt at Ellis Park, Finished a decent third move to the turf

at Churchill, next out 1 immediately by 4 1/2 lengths in

maiden Special company moves to Keeneland against winners, goes

ahead and picks that one off runs of the Wait a while of the

Synthetic at Gulfstream Park, wins that one for fun and then

comes back and wins the Ginger Brew at a mile.

Storms Wake, who was third in that race, will show up here as

well. Luis Saez ends up picking up the

mount for Brian Lynch. I think she's the most likely

upset candidate. I would agree she's absolutely

the best value play in this race.

My only concern is the lack of pace.

She's going to need to come from off of it.

I think she has a little bit more tactical speed than we've

seen in the past. Certainly getting somebody like

Louis up is going to help maybe gets her a little bit more

involved. But listen, an Oscar performance

out of the Night of Thunder mare.

There's plenty of great things to like about this horse.

And like I mentioned, Brian Lynch is on fire, so I think

he's got this one covered on the front end and coming from off

the pace. So I think those two are the

absolute ones you should be zeroing in on in the spot.

The two horse in here is named after many of your dates.

It's called surprise ending. What do you make of her chances?

Here. That's a good joke.

Whatever. No, that's a good sports talk

radio joke. I stand by it.

What do you make of her chances here?

I actually think she's got real shot here.

I've no. So here's here's the thing that

I because I took a long look at this too surprise ending for

Brendan Walsh and I love Brendan and particularly when he's

teamed up with Tyler. Sure.

My concern is this horse got really fast fraction debut and

came from well off the pace, and I just don't know if we're going

to get those same fractions. And it's interesting, she was a

big price in debut. I mean, a little surprising for

a Brendan Walsh horse making a debut at Gulfstream Park to go

off at 18 to 1, and she got the job done.

But I just worried about whether or not she's going to get the

same set up and whether or not the field's going to come back

to her quite the same way it did in debut.

So I thought at 8:00 to 1:00, I'd rather go with a horse like

Storms Wakey to one than her at 8:00 to 1:00, yeah.

I totally agree with that. Plus I mean that that was on

Lasix too. There's no Lasix in this race,

obviously all those things. So there's questions around that

one for sure. Your dating life on the side

Holy Bowl will be the the final race on the card to talk about

Matthew de Santis from up there at Naira bets The Holy Bowl

grade three $275,000 on the line.

It will be the main Derby prep for the weekend with the

postponement in Arkansas Mile on the 16th here on the dirt return

of incredible who we saw up here in the street sets come from off

the pace. Love the long stretch in in that

one. The two favorites, though, come

in nearly in Cannoneer, frankly, with the news of Ted Noffy that

you mentioned to open the segment.

And this has to be, you know, Ted Todd Pletcher's best chance

at a Derby starter and nearly what make what makes you of this

race? And who do you think the most

likely Derby starter is out of this group?

Yeah, I did. That's a good question.

In terms of the most likely Derby starter out of this group,

I actually would say Incredibles probably the most likely Derby

starter just because he's got some points already.

He's a tested graded stakes or I think he's going to run well

here. But I think there's a difference

between the most likely Derby starter and the horses probably

most likely to win this race. And for me, I really like the

number 5 Cannoneer nearly as an interesting horse, you know,

obviously super talented. And you mentioned maybe Todd's

best shot, maybe a horse like Renegade who finished second in

the Remsen to Paladin. Maybe that's a horse that you

want to keep an eye on for Pletcher as well, but certainly

nearly feels like his best shot. But thinking about nearly as

this horse was well beaten in debut, then goes down to

Gulfstream Park and runs against state bred competition in

Florida and you know, easily wins that field, but really

didn't run against much that day and then ends up running in a

three or four horse allowance race and had Lasix.

Now we're switching off Lasix going two turns.

There's some questions there with nearly the reality is the

scratch of Butane, who much like me was not able to get their

flights out of this past weekend, was not able to make it

to Gulfstream Park for this race.

As well as the likely scratch of the number 9 game port for Chad

Summers, who has said they're going to be targeting the Sam F

Davis really leaves cannon ear up front and without much pace

pressure at all. And this is a horse that looks

so impressive last time out at Churchill Downs and even in

debut, I thought ran well against a horse like Comport,

who we saw come back win a stakes race in Kentucky.

So I think Cannoneer 2 to one, that's going to be my top pick

in this race. Brad Cox, I ride Ortiz Junior,

this is 1/2 sibling to one of my personal favorite horses,

Midnight Bourbon, as well as 1/2 sibling to Gervin.

So again, great pedigree here, particularly for a mile and a

16th. That's where I'm going to be

going. I'm just going to be following

the pace dynamics and this one should be alone upfront.

What do you make of Bravaro? This is a horse that you would

have seen with your own eyes there at Aqueduct back in

September and October. 2 for 2 is a New York bred, but is in

the Joseph barn. So Safdie's got this one in

South Florida for this race. Is this, is there a world of

which this one shows up? I don't know.

Rudd's third here and he goes, you know what, Maybe we need to

head back to New York with this one.

I think maybe even second, I think this is a really good

horse. Bravaro, 8:00 to 1:00 in the

morning line. Son of Upstart.

I like this horse a lot. Showed so much maturity in

debut, winning from just off the pace, then came and stretched

out to a mile, enveloped that field in the Sleepy Hollow.

No problem at all. That race has already produced

some Next Out winners, so you'd love to see that.

And the fact that Saffy didn't leave the horse in New York I

think is telling because he could have left this horse up

here running some of the Derby preps in New York.

That might have been a softer spot.

Instead, he brings him down to Florida, puts him in the Holy

Bowl. That's a little bit of the

deeper waters. And I think this horse has a

real live shot at 8:00 to 1:00. If I'm playing any sort of

vertical gimmick, this horse is absolutely included in it

because I think the price is fantastic.

Yeah, Bravaro, an interesting one.

And like you said, if you got up started on the sire side, I mean

it look at the the end before the Y doesn't change how good,

how well bred this horse is, right?

Instead of AK, something like that.

So yeah, no, I totally agree with you on that.

We're talking with Matthew DeSantis.

Let's take a left turn and head to Maryland.

The extra heat and spectacular bid there on the card, 6

furlongs and the extra heat, 7 furlongs in the spectacular bid

on the Philly. And then on the colt side there.

I always do these shows with our good friends in Maryland.

Mackenzie Pfeiffer joined me in the Horse racing Happy Hour

yesterday. She's awesome.

If you haven't checked out that episode, who do you like here in

So this is race 800,000 on the line here. 6 furlongs on the

dirt for three-year old Philly. So you got the extra heat.

It's competitive race, but I really like the number 7V music

9 to 2 for Mike Maker. I this horse just coming out of

a really good race at Oakland Park, the Astral Spa overnight

where you saw the winner Counting Stars come back and win

the year's end, predominantly going a mile at Oak Lawn.

And even the 4th place finisher Grace Is Free came back to win

the Mockingbird Stakes next time out.

And what was impressive was all of those horses really move

forward on their buyer speed figures from that race at

Oaklawn in the Astral Spa. So I think this horse I know

just has that one maiden win but has shown the ability to rate

off the pace as well and pass horses by.

Not a one in those spots, but you can see this horse has no

problem getting passed to others.

Sired by Mclean's music, obviously good Sprint influence

right there. I think this one can continue to

move forward. Third back from a little bit of

a layoff and Mike Baker, I think is always dangerous when you

talk about the Mid-Atlantic. Unfaithful Rosen here, by the

way, 3rd at the Fairgrounds last out.

She's the three horse in here. Love Your Neighbor, who was

second in the untappable stakes in Silver Bullet Day did win and

in her next two starts and so this is an interesting set of

horses there. The spectacular bid last one.

We'll ask Matthew DeSantis about.

He's at failed to menace on social 7 furlongs on the dirt at

Laurel Park, 100,000 on the line.

We do not have an update from Gary Capuano which horse

Hazelwood will be on between the two and the three, but obviously

they will be part of the betting equation.

Where did you land in this one? Well, I landed on another Gary

Capuano horse and that's the one with the rider aside.

Michael Sanchez #4 Hollywood Import 9:00 to 2:00 on the

morning line, coming off of a win last time out in the half

stakes. And again, a horse that can do

it a few different ways, can come from well off the pace and

also could go straight to the front.

Now the fractions last time were a little soft at some furlongs,

but what I like is that this one has shown plenty of ability of

coming from off the pace. So again allows Michael Sanchez

to play the break a little bit. This one has ascending speed

figures, I like that, and I think has also shown the ability

to run well over an off track. So the fact that this one can

run well despite the conditions definitely puts this one up

there for me. And 9:00 to 2:00 feels like a

really honest price. Pennsylvania bread on the

outside, close the gate. An interesting one for me,

Matthew, just, I don't know, $2500 breeding job.

I love that. Is the Class A little bit too

much for this one? Did break maiden in a maiden 50

last out by 9 3/4 lengths there at Laurel Park.

That looked really, really good. And like you just said, kind of

an off track, right? I don't expect to have perfect

conditions on Saturday that way. So should be a lot of fun.

It has been fun, Matthew, by the way, watching Maryland racing

recapture some of its previous magic this year.

And I in in lots of different ways where field sizes, all the

different things. But, you know, the emergence of

Yetzi and Hazelwood as well on their circuit, I always think of

Maryland as a spot where we find the next jockey, right?

And so it's been nice to see them getting back to what

they're good at. Absolutely.

As somebody who lived in Northern Virginia for a long

time, used to go to Laurel regularly, Pimlico as well, love

the Maryland horsemen there. And you know, listen, one of my

colleagues at Naira's, Maggie Wolf and Dale, native of

Maryland, she loves it there and she always talks to me very

fondly about her memories in Maryland.

It's a it's a great state, it's a great horsemen state and great

product and so glad to see them bounce back.

Yeah, they're doing great this year.

Check them out. 12% take outs on the pick fives there as well.

So nice playable numbers as well.

Well, Matthew, we appreciate you, your friend.

Have a good weekend, stay warm. When, when are you planning to

race again at Aqueduct? What is the New York plan for

that? Well, we're planning to race

next Wednesday, February 4th and we'll see, but that's the plan.

And so we're going to. But listen, here's the thing you

want to talk about looking forward to some racing up in New

York. We're going to have some jam

packed cards because we have about 2 1/2 weeks worth of

stakes race to cram in to that next week.

So you're going to see some great cards, competitive fields

and some wonderful betting sequences once we get going up

here at Aqueduct shortly. At failed to menace and of

course at naira bets for everything they've got going up

there in the good in the Big Apple.

Matthew, appreciate you buddy. Have a good weekend and stay

warm. All right, you do the same.

Louie. Thank you so much.

There you go. Matthew DeSantis with us here on

Rabo ANCO, ESPN 681057 on the other end.

We haven't talked. We got Cooper flag stuff,

people. We got Cooper flag stuff.

Zach went from from crying laughing early in the show to

just smiling and being unable to stand up right now with hearing

about Cooper Flag, we talk about it next.