Churchill Downs
The iconic Twin Spires.
Jun 27, 2025 • 10:44 pm
LOUISVILLE — What a year 2025 has been in horse racing. And it’s only June!
The triple crown series this year featured great performances from a strong crop: Sovereignty in the Derby and Belmont, and Journalism never finishing outside the top 2 – and creating a lasting memory in the Preakness stretch.
We enjoyed a spectacular field on the Derby undercard – including the Grade 1 Churchill Downs, out of which multiple horses have already won their next races – all of them graded stakes.
Good Cheer gave us a major reason to cheer through the Kentucky Oaks – before being outshined at Saratoga by La Cara. The 3-year-old filly division is again a strong one.
And who can overlook the quality of the Southern California-based runners? Raging Torrent won the Met Mile – over Fierceness and White Abarrio – and we had a 1-2 finish of Kopion and Hope Road in the Grade 1 Derby City Distaff. That’s right: the SoCal invaders did the thing at Churchill on Derby Day.
Add to it Saturday’s Grade 1 Stephen Foster – a $1,000,000 race for older horses – and you may have the best field to date. This is nearly impossible to imagine, given the quality of the aforementioned Grade 1 Churchill Downs, but here we are.
Let’s meet this stacked field, and get a wager together.
Churchill Downs Race 11. Grade 1 Stephen Foster. 1 ⅛ miles, dirt. 4+up. $1,000,000.
1. First Mission. 4/1. Jockey: Luis Saez. Trainer: Brad Cox.
First Mission is an accomplished runner (get ready for that term in this piece), winning 6 of his first 12 career races, including 4 wins in graded stakes. Those 4 wins have come in 3 different years: as a 3-, 4-, and 5-year-old. He won the Grade 2 Razorback at Oaklawn Park last out, at the same distance and over the same surface. It would be easy to dismiss that win, given how Oaklawn-based horses have run this meet at Churchill (read: not well), but First Mission has a history at Churchill, inclusive of a win in last year’s Grade 2 Alysheba. He can win here, but he’s a step down the ladder for me.
Comment: likely include.
2. Mindframe. 7/2. Jockey: Irad Ortiz, Jr. Trainer: Todd Pletcher.
Mindframe enters this one in the best current form, having topped a near-impossible field in the Grade 1 Churchill Downs on Derby Day. He’s a throwback, in that he runs well at various distances; he’s now won stakes at 7 and 8 furlongs, and earned good seconds in last year’s Belmont (10 furlongs) and Haskell (9 furlongs). He can get the distance here, and it’s clear the connections – including Todd Pletcher – think he’s a Breeder’s Cup Classic contender. I’m not going to disagree.
Comment: most talented.
3. Skippylongstocking. 6/1. Jockey: Jose Ortiz. Trainer: Saffie Joseph, Jr.
Skippy is a true throwback: this will be his 33rd career race, including 4 races this year at 4 different tracks – all of those in graded stakes, with 2 wins and 2 thirds. He gives an honest every single time we see him. He’s long been just short in Grade 1s, but it would surprise very few if he showed up in a big way in the Foster. He’s 6-years-old but his breeding lines are such that the ownership is better off running him for purses than sending him to stud. Can he win? Sure. Will he? We’ll bet that he doesn’t.
Comment: reluctant toss.
4. Sierra Leone. 5/2. Jockey: Flavien Prat. Trainer: Chad Brown.
Sierra Leone was part of the greatest race I’ve ever seen in person: Kentucky Derby 150, which included a three-way photo finish. Sierra did tons of bumping and good running in the stretch, finishing second by the tiniest of margins. After a summer of disappointments at Saratoga, he found his best strides just in time, winning the Breeder’s Cup Classic at Del Mar. His ownership brought him back at Fair Grounds in New Orleans, where he had won previously; he finished a bad third, up the track behind lesser competition than he’ll face here. No one I’ve spoken with can give a solid reason as to why; sometimes horses just don’t fire. All this criticism, but Sierra has something substantial on his record: 10 starts, and 10 times in the money. He’s a game runner, and you know he’ll bring it. I’ll put him on top in this race, and expect him to run his best.
Comment: most likely winner.
5. Mystik Dan. 3/1. Jockey: Brian Hernandez, Jr. Trainer: Kenny McPeek.
Mystik Dan won the aforementioned Derby 150, with jockey Brian Hernandez, Jr. showing his mettle with a ground-saving ride and the ever-famous corner cut. Dan went the remainder of 2024 without a win, and his return in 2025 was less than inspiring. Credit team McPeek, which took a patient approach with Dan, pointing him to a softer spot at Oaklawn. He ran there on Derby Day, finishing a tight second to a very good Saudi Crown. He parlayed that into a win in this race’s prep, the Grade 3 Blame, again cutting the corner and showing his moxy over the Churchill surface. I think he’s a contender because the race is at Churchill, but I simply don’t think he’s ready to beat a field of this quality.
Comment: reluctant toss.
6. Hit Show. 9/2. Jockey: Florent Geroux. Trainer: Brad Cox.
Hit Show may be the most difficult horse to handicap in the field, as his win in the $12,000,000 Dubai World Cup came as a legitimate surprise to many. Prior to that, he had shipped to Santa Anita for the Grade 1 Handicap, finishing a distant 12 ½ lengths behind winner Locked. He has won twice at Churchill, including the Grade 2 Lukas Classic; his best runs, however, have come over sloppy tracks. It’s very warm here in Louisville, and pop-up storms are likely; perhaps Hit Show gets the slop he wants, and pulls off another major win. Handicapping horses off a return from the Arabian Peninsula is always difficult; if Hit Show is like Raging Torrent, he’ll be just fine.
Comment: include if it rains.
7. Ashcort. 30/1. Jockey: Julien Leparoux. Trainer: D. Wayne Lukas.
Ashcroft will likely be trainer D. Wayne Lukas’ final stakes starter at Churchill Downs, as it was announced last weekend that he’ll need to end his career because of health concerns. Lukas is as important to modern horse racing as anyone, and his trainer tree is incredible. Ashcroft, simply put, hasn’t been good this year. His last win was going a mile at Santa Anita, but not in stakes company; he’s never tried going this far. Horse Racing has seen less likely winners than Ashcroft, but he’s simply not anywhere near the same class as the other runners in this race.
Comment: first toss.
Sporting Tribune Wager:
$1 Trifecta Play ($40) – 2,4 over 1,2,3,4,5,6 over 1,2,3,4,5,6. Good luck!
