Michael Clevenger and O’Neil Arnold/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
Good Cheer, with Luis Saez up, wins the 151st running of the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on Friday, May 2, 2025
May 2, 2025 • 6:21 pm
LOUISVILLE, Ky. — The First Saturday in May has arrived – without much of the usual bluster and buzz.
The backside of Churchill Downs has been quiet, if not serious, most of the week. It’s caught me a bit off-guard, as while there are the usual nerves about the Derby amongst the connections, there’s a general sense of celebration during this week. For those of us who cover the sport, it’s a rare opportunity to see our colleagues from all over the country; it’s likewise similar for owners and trainers.
This week wasn’t without its usual drama in getting to the starting gate, as numerous contenders had to scratch during the week. Grade 1 Florida Derby winner Tappan Street, trained by Brad Cox, suffered a leg fracture exiting the track after training a week ago, and was ruled out of the Derby. Tappan Street underwent successful surgery, and is expected to race again. Mike Repole owned Grande was ruled out by the stewards with a quarter crack, largely seen as a treatable condition and one horses can run on. Rodriguez, my previous top pick and Wood Memorial winner, was scratched by trainer Bob Baffert and will point to the Preakness in two week.
And finally, the weather. As is common on Derby Day, we’ll likely be looking at rain. Sloppy conditions change the complexion of all races, and should play a factor in the race tomorrow.
Given all of the above, here are four I’m interested in for Kentucky Derby 151.
Churchill Downs. Grade 1 Kentucky Derby. 1 ¼ miles, dirt. $5,000,000.
8. Journalism. 3/1. Jockey: Umberto Rispoli. Trainer: Mike McCarthy.
Journalism will be the favorite, and a deserved one: he’s reeled off three straight graded stakes wins, all of them impressively. At his best, he has the exact style one would want in dirt route races: sit just behind the pace-setters, then pounce in the final stretch.
The knocks against Journalism are two part: first, those stakes were against fields with only four other horses. That’s right: he’ll run against more horses in the Derby than he has in his last three races combined. The other is the conditions: he’s never run on a wet track, but neither have most of his competitors. I won’t hold that angle against him.
14. Tiztastic. 20/1. Jockey: Joel Rosario. Trainer: Steve Asmussen.
Trainer Steve Asmussen is the winningest all-time trainer in North America, and has only one hole in his resume: the Derby. Tiztastic last ran in the Louisiana Derby, the longest prep ahead of the Kentucky Derby, and won. He rallied from off the pace, and will probably have to be much closer on Saturday if he hopes to win. Jockey Joel Rosario rode him for the first time in that Louisiana Derby, and is great in these kinds of spots. He knows Churchill Downs well, and should give Tiztastic a proper ride. His sire, Tiz The Law, ran second in the 2020 Kentucky Derby, and won the Belmont that year.
My odd angle on Tiztastic is his form last summer at Kentucky Downs, a turf course in southern Kentucky. It may seem odd to use this as a positive in a dirt race, but the rare undulations and contours of Kentucky Downs showed me he can run in anything. He’s live here.
18. Sovereignty. 5/1. Jockey: Junior Alvarado. Trainer: Bill Mott.
Sovereignty comes in off a second-place finish in the Grade 1 Florida Derby, one of the great predictors of high level success in the Kentucky Derby. Just two years ago, Mage finished a good second in the Florida Derby and won on the first Saturday in May.
Sovereignty won the Grade 3 Street Sense at the end of November at Churchill Downs, and the top three horses all qualified for the Derby, and won a Derby prep: Sovereignty, Tiztastic, and Sandman. Not only did he win the race, it was his first career win, and it came in a stakes.
That day wasn’t a great weather day here in Louisville, and the experience over the Churchill Downs dirt course is a major positive.
12. East Avenue. 20/1. Jockey: Manny Franco. Trainer: Brendan Walsh.
East Avenue ran a great second in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes, six weeks after a disappointing showing in the Grade 2 Risen Star in New Orleans. He could’ve folded in the Blue Grass like he did in Louisiana, but simply put in one of the best performances of his career.
I believe East Avenue is the fastest horse in this year’s Derby, and should be able to get the lead at some point. It’s never easy for horses to make closing moves on a wet dirt track, so he may get loose on the lead and take the whole thing.
The Sporting Tribune’s Kentucky Derby 151 Trifecta:
8,18 over 3,8,12,14 over all
$1 Trifecta bet is $38. Good luck!
