Mike & Louis discuss the upcoming big day of stakes races at Churchill Downs & disagree about the Belmont
Our MATT WINNers
Full Transcript
All right, welcome to this edition of the horse-racing.
Happy hour will upset you do like that.
I was going to think we could do it here Leslie sound like this.
All right, there we go. That is actually something
better that's actual alive. Cheers glass, right there going
on because we are excited that horse racing is back at
Churchill Downs, and I didn't think it was that big of a deal.
I went on record last episode saying, like, you know, Louis is
more excited that I am there? Yeah, I said Louise more
excited. I am.
But then I get the morning of that Saturday morning.
I get a my 88 year old grandma. I'll call him and say, hey, what
channel? Can I watch Churchill Downs on
today, right? I mean, that was what it's
really about. They like they want to know
people want to seal a sports, you know, NASCAR's figured it
out. You have UFC's figured it out
and it was time for horse racing horse.
Racing's just got this massive opportunity right now that
they're Not that they haven't capitalized on yet.
Yeah. Hi Mike.
Good to see. I hate to see you to lose.
I'll push back a little bit only because the numbers are so up at
the tracks that are running on the gambling side, on the
gambling site. Sure.
But also on the television side, right?
I mean you know, Fox Sports is just broadcasting.
I was in my car the other day and Fox Sports was broadcasting,
Churchill Downs as their live feed on Sirius XM.
Wow. Okay.
Yeah, that's that. So, I, I'll push back a little
bit on not capitalizing because I think if you are well, run and
you're doing your thing the right way.
If you're a gold stream, if your church old, okay, let's put down
good this way. That just shows that there's a
demand. Yeah, that's foxes.
Are demand. Horse racing could be driving
and pushing that demand better. Oh sure.
That's what I'm trying to get it.
So like, you know, we can now start to really push them o
stories out there. You know, they could incorporate
just really kind of glorifying this Trail of the The
simultaneous Trail. It's going to happen now to the
derby and the Breeders Cup at the same time, right?
That's just unprecedented, you know?
Well, it also It's a weird time because what they should be
playing up is that American? Pharoah's babies are running,
right? Oh yeah, all over the place
everywhere. In the first race at Churchill
Downs today. They came second and third,
right? There's so many running that two
of them were in the same race, right?
And that's what they should be playing up and it is a lost
opportunity there. But I do think you know that
kudos to Fox and different Outlets who saw this coming
because you know when 14 million dollars is BET on A-Z Zero on
track handle that in Churchill Downs.
That is an impressive number and they knew that people were going
to watch. And I'll tell you, I don't know
our board people are bored. I have friends who I've gotten
into horse racing who have admitted to me that every
Saturday. Now at the races, is what they
watch, because that's what's on, right?
Right. Because they do watch, add a
baseball, or whatever else would be on right, horse?
Racing's on right now, that's what they're watching.
Hey, it's not like horse racing. Doesn't give you the Drama.
Oh, totally, that other sports. Give you right.
I mean I was camera which race it was.
Was. Most men like race to race
three, but I was one horse away from hitting a really big
superfecta and I'm kicking myself because I would have bet
the try would have had it and to try paid like 1,200 bucks and
I'm, you know, I'm like, why didn't I just get the try and
I'd, you know, play the dime, super effective, every once
awhile because of their just kind of fun.
You can box for horses or 240 and, and one horse away from
like a 1200 dollar payoff and because you had, I had to, of
the long shots. So, I did the hard part and I
missed one of The, you know, so one of the favorites I took out
is the one that I missed on it and so you get that drama.
But then you get the drama of seeing that 42:1 whatever try to
win. And or just, you know, the great
finishes, you get all that stuff in horse racing.
So the drama is there. The excitement of them coming
down the stretch. You cannot beat it.
That's right. And you know, just I mean kudos
to this, how Churchill has put this be together in a very short
amount of time. There are over 60 jockeys in the
jockey Colony here. That's crazy.
Unbeliever can't shower but I mean, I wonder if they're not
giving them like individual sweets, I'm not kidding.
I don't know, you know what I mean?
Like just, you know, obviously they need to use the jockey room
for certain things, but like, if the guys aren't getting a
different space for themselves. So, you know, if they're, if
that's part of the distancing protocol there, by the way, in
my notes for today, which I have to pull up.
Where are you? There you are.
What are you drinking the meantime.
Oh yeah, this is a 12-year Weller Weller, very nice, the
black They will hear ya, the Black Label which I drink very
infrequently because I feel like it's very hard to find.
It is very hard. Yeah.
Have you been Winkle basically? Yeah, and it's a tremendous
drink and no happy to be on that one today.
And you're having Blends Blends. Yes, certainly odd power of not
a little nicer, but, well, I mean, I think, I think most
people would, I don't know. It's in that Weller 12,
universes of plans. I think most people would say,
well, or 12 year. Should we put up a Twitter poll
about that? Yes, let's do that.
Twitter poll. Never, we've never done.
Of course, no one's listening to us live right now, so it doesn't
matter. But for their own Twitter, just
to see what the results are gonna guess.
We'll report next week or maybe by the end of the show.
We'll have something. I don't probably get some votes
in the next hour. Okay, we'll see what happens.
So, yeah, I would go. So, if I would choose plans over
well or 12, but I think most people would choose well, or 12
over plans. It's specifically for what you
just said. I mean, plans and easy to come
by right now, either. I mean, all the Buffalo Trace
products, they've really kind of figured it out.
Like, they didn't want to water down.
Their product that they ran out, they knew that created some more
demand. And I mean, you can't even find
eagle ray right now, right? So kudos to Sazerac for knocking
out of the park. No.
There are all over it and they're they're doing some cool
stuff. They're doing curbside pickups.
Now, out of Buffalo Trace, you can actually go straight there
for those products that are harder to find.
Cut out the distributor keep prices down.
They didn't completely it. Nice.
That's not sure. What that is.
That's not true. It's joke.
Okay. Yeah, it gives you, it gives us
an excuse As in The Bourbon Room gives you an excuse to drive out
to Bourbon country, which is yeah, that's gorgeous.
All of us are missing that stuff right now.
Yeah. So the poll is up, we're taping
the Pod, pick your bourbon Blends or well or 12 years.
So other job and get to that has people that little known fact to
on the Bland side. So the people know the planes
Single Barrel here that's that's what's on the shelves.
But there's a couple expressions of planes and I've got a couple
of them. You can't buy any of them in the
United States but supposedly I heard that there is going to be
one of the expressions of plans. It is going to be released in
the United States. I can remember was Blanton's,
gold. I think it was plans gold.
She get those like, they like really such a pan that kind of
thing or some of Germany. Some Japan.
I have a friend of mine who can get him and so I have like the
straight from the barrel one, that's really good.
I had the plans gold. Yeah, it's really good.
Great. All right.
Can't go wrong with either the willow 12 year or the blitz for
sure. Both tremendous and I love the,
the single Blanton's that you can buy in the store, those
small box. Odds are always like 10 12 bucks
or when you collect the tops of plans.
I do it because I don't drink it enough to do that, but but I
love those single ones as little gifts, like, little thank yous
to people. Yes, that's a cool thing.
You can just put on a show where it was like a trophy with the
horse. Really not, right?
Yeah, that's great. Yeah.
So what else we got? What else, what else?
You got your notes now. Did you fill them up?
I do have all my notes up here. We will later in the show.
We will talk about the all Stakes pick five, which is the
last five races at Churchill Downs, on Saturday, five stakes
races, five, stakes races all at least 100 Grand one of The G3
150,000 dollars. The mat win, which is God's word
every Point register B points. That's right.
It is on the level of the Jeff Ruby Stakes, except that the
horses are considerably better. And I say that with what the
Jeff Ruby Stakes Winner is actually the morning line
favorite in his Stakes race in the last race.
So we'll talk about him too because I got to see him in
person with a stable boy. But you know I just a couple
things I want to talk about the Belmont on June 20th.
At what naira is telling everyone is exactly what I've
been saying on this show for years.
And then I do want to talk about the Derby rankings because now
we should call them the Belmont rankings.
Because now that they're running the Belmont at night for a
Long's, we should be talking about that as the Derby because
it's the first race. And then I also Yeah, those are
essentially my notes I want is yell and scream about naira and
then where the on-screen about an hour now, now would be fine.
Okay, okay, I'm going to ask you first because I want to get your
reaction. Myra says June, 20 were running
the Belmont nine furlongs Mile and an eighth or anybody.
I'm sorry and going to be on NBC, which is awesome, right.
Get that good team. They're right.
Which is great. Just tell me your thoughts.
I don't want to lead you at all. So you know, traditionally the
Belmonts 12. Furlongs, correct.
So that's, that's the first thing.
I'm most people, I think that listen to this show interest and
that it's not usually a model inmate.
That's a mile and a half. It's a long one.
It changes that race considerably because of that
track, right? And I haven't seen like where
the start is. Do you Know where the start is.
It's essentially a one turn, it makes it a one turn race
essential and you and I feel I think you and I feel the same
about that like the difference between a classic race in a non
classic races, classic ratio should be two turns generally
speaking. Yes so You know, and then
there's just history and tradition and records and all
that other kind of stuff it too. I don't like it.
I don't like it being a mile and an eighth, I don't, but I don't
know if they could. I don't think it would have been
fair for the horses or four or healthy for the horses to
stretch them out to a mile and a half without the other without
the other races. I mean we still have not seen
them going on a quarter yet. I don't think so.
You know we got to remember that these Nurses are young athletes
that they're going from basically the Mi being stretched
all the way out to the mound of quarter that the Derby is and
they switched go back to Milan 3/16 for the for the Preakness.
And then they train up to the mall and a half, which is the
Belmont. And I just feel like to be fair
to them, probably them all. My only 8 is probably legit.
I think they could probably done them on a quarter, you know, I
don't think logistically, it works at that track.
That's because that's because the turned is essentially.
Yeah, you're right. Yeah, you're exactly right and
so I understand why they're doing the mile and an eighth as
far as the layout of the track. Yep.
What you talked about as far as it would essentially be like
asking High School cross country Runners to go from a 5k to a
10K. Exactly.
It's start with the 10K that go back to 5K, right.
I mean I kind of think, you know, it's less less than that
but I mean, you know if you shot your so, did I answer your
question? Well, you did and it was it a
well-thought-out like it was, I think it's okay.
I think boat two things can be true.
I can I think it can be disappointing.
That they're not running at 12 furlongs but also understandable
that they're running it at night, right?
Yeah. I mean I'm more excited about
the potential feel that it could draw correct.
That's the thing that's why. That's one of the reasons.
The nine furlongs is awesome because the field is going to
write rific should only horse would be that I've heard is not
going for sure's can Guillermo. I don't know that he was going
to win that race anyway. He would have been interesting,
he would have entered and I don't know that.
He wins that race anyway. I think, by the way.
So, first things first, I want to honor a gun naira on this
show. Many times, I've said, they do
not care about Belmont. They care about what Saratoga
Scott Aqueduct is what you say, you like, they hate the hate
Aqueduct Belmont. They love.
Saratoga. Okay.
Here's how, you know, for sure that I'm right there, telling
you, with this Belmont, 11 weeks before Derby, they're running
the Belmont. Why?
Well, right there, Other Factor there though, you cannot run the
Derby and then run the Preakness in October 4th, or whatever
they're doing. What they know is.
Why not run the Belmont the first Saturday in August and
then you have one on the first Saturday in August 1 on the
first Saturday in September. And one of the first Saturday in
October it is very simple. Well I think they honestly feel
like you gets so crowded. When you order 100 percent
they're not going to go against what they their stay schedule is
in August there. Stick scheduled, August is
awesome. It's Saratoga.
Yeah, but they're not going to mess with Saratoga.
It's about the Traverse is about Saratoga that Travers is a
bigger race in the Belmont. I 1 million percent disagree
with you. I think that's a hideously bad
statement know. But, naira agrees with you, you
know how I know they drop the prize money, a half million
behind the, I completely disagree with you.
And this is so forth, but the Traverse isn't traditionally in
August and that season in August does have a ton of tradition
with it. You why would you interrupt it
with the Belmont? Because you're not going to have
champion horses go. Owing to the Traverse this year.
It's a joke of a race this year. It's Point Race.
It's a points race. Yes, yes, exactly.
Right. It is on par with the Florida
Derby. This year.
It's the wood. It's the Wood Memorial.
It is the One World. Don't.
Don't look me in the face and tell me that the Traverse
matters more than the Belmont this year.
It doesn't. Well, you're just.
So you're going to make an adjustment for one year when you
have all that other history, I'd totally disagree with that.
I think we at the Traverse is there.
You should go with it and I just that's what they're saying.
Yeah, they agree with you. They're saying that that
Saratoga the Traverse is more important at the Belmont Stakes.
No they're not. They're saying the Belmont
mistakes is not. So important that we should
upset the entire apple cart. Actually, that's a really good
with the Apple analogy for the up there, too.
So they're saying that they're not going to upset the entire
apple cart and they shouldn't. Okay.
So you would I just fundamentally disagree on this.
I also want to go on record because I've seen a lot of this
chatter online this week if a horse wins, the Belmont and then
wins the Derby and then wins the Preakness.
They are a Triple Crown winner period and there is no asterisk.
I don't care. It is as hard to win those three
races, all spread out in a different places as it would be
to win all of them in. Five weeks II don't want to hear
anything else about it. I'm tired of people complain
about it. Look does the new triple crown
for this year? I agree with what you're saying
there but will they say hey if you can run and of course this
is makes it's either because the classic is going to have four
girls right. But that's what it is really
setting up for and that's why I the word the Belmont is just
kind of matter mean from. I think why?
I need to be in June. But going from the Derby to the
Preakness to the classic is what they're trying to set all these.
Horses up to do. Oh, absolutely.
Yeah. Yeah, I know, but you but by the
way, with this be set up the wrong strong, strong information
that Keeneland will be no fans for the Breeders Cup.
Oh, oh that's can't say anything else.
No fans for the Breeders Cup. Yeah, after the Derby is
probably going to have some fans.
Oh, I don't think there'll be seven bands.
Here's where I'll disagree with you.
So we actually need to. I'm just Go ahead.
I've no, I can't because I guess if I saw, if I say anything
else, I'm going to just going. Yeah, well, I'm not going to
divulge a whole lot of stuff that doesn't can't be divulged
yet. So a couple of days ago, They
put out that. Sorry, I'm getting this up.
June 8th. You don't really want to talk
door, attractions will reopen. So you're telling me, but
they're not saying that you're going to mask Rascal. 175,000
people, let me finish. So you're telling me people can
go swim in the pool at Kentucky Kingdom and wait in line for
roller coasters, but they can't go sit in the 100 section to
Churchill Downs. That is 100% going to be if
that's the case, that's 100 percent correct.
I have not seen that they're going to open Kentucky Kingdom.
That was talked about yesterday in the governor's.
My don't listen to Governor's press.
I understand y'all really yesterday that he was completely
lying about the ICU numbers. The most important thing about
flattening. The curfew was totally like, I
would like, he was escalating them or under playing them by
over 200% escalating them. Well, that's just flat.
Like we're not going to get in the political side of that, but
that doesn't surprise me. It's unacceptable.
I mean, it's one of the more unacceptable things that I've
ever seen, But distilleries are going to be open.
Aquariums are going to be open, libraries will be open.
And museums will be open. Why could you not sit the 100
section? Sure.
I'm using and being A open is completely different than having
people jammed packed. I'm not saying jam packed, dirt
going to be people at Churchill Downs.
We'll see. We'll see.
Be 180. I think, I think there's a
chance that were there. I'm after this.
Yeah. But what I really want to see is
I really want to see the governor come out with a stance
and Churchill Downs just to be like mmm.
Nah, that's not what we're doing.
And just go one hundred percent against it was go to a horse it
that's what I want. The Louisville cop is going to
arrest people for going to Churchill Downs.
What is, what would that do to Mayor Fischer?
Oh, the spot for him. Good thing for him.
Is he never has to run again but oh I mean another does beshear.
But anyways, the but anyways so okay, but do you agree with me
on the way around that comment. I agree that the Triple Crown,
if the Belmont, if you win the Belmont, the Derby and the
Preakness and that or order Hue or sill, Triple Crown winner.
Here's here's the historical argument for them.
By the way over, half the horses that we consider, Triple Crown
winners ran in a different format than the current one.
Sure, two of them ran the brand, the Preakness before the derby.
And then in other years, they would run the Derby.
Run the Preakness a week later. Run another race and then run
the Belmont a month later, okay? So a horse racing has a
wonderful, wonderful Heritage in history.
Why are we so afraid to be part of it this year but that's what
I don't understand. Why are we why are we suddenly
clutching our pearls about having to have three weeks
between the Preakness that? No, no, It's gotta be at 12,
furlongs, get over it this year. Yeah.
Just get over it this year and I'm not yelling at you Michael
yelling General. Now, that's an interesting
point, though. The And of course the these
distances have not always been set in stone either the Belmont
was run it like a mile of 7h for a while.
Yeah well even the Darby hasn't been a mama quarter forever
that's right. That's the Oaks distance has
changed many times and I don't think of any past Oaks winners
as lesser horses or something you hear it listen to this
potential. Like what they're saying right
now is the probable lineup for the Belmont Stakes on horse
racing. Well, I've got the odds with me.
So go you got the odds for the Belmont.
I have the futures from from okay from Las Vegas Tis, the law
versus a doll. For charlatan right there, you
can just stop and then like it's worth it.
By the way, thanks returns all the on the pole already the 12
years. Yeah I told you you're right
now. You called Basin.
So Volante Governor Morris shivery doctor.
Post I don't which I don't know much about dr.
Post it's a pleasure horse. Yeah max player, modernist
Farmington Road. So you have the top, you know,
you those first all those top three.
And you could have so Volante at a easily at a 12:50 in that race
is 22 1 in the Futures. Yeah, well who do you think
that's our favorites on here? Well, who So I can only pick two
other threes, which are trying to say or for well, no, I don't
think there's a fourth. I don't.
So, how are you doing, good? Charlotte's an adult is law.
I mean, you're, you know, you're on it.
Yeah. One of those is 72 to the other
Title, 5 to 2 outputs. A long day ahead of basin.
I was so lucky on. This is 22, 1 Basin is 12:35.
They agree with you. Okay, I think most people that
would think that basins a bigger name It's better more races,
you've heard about yes. So who's the fourth one that
they've got on their that's fourth?
Favorite is is a tie between dr. Post and honor a p.o. will see.
I'm Sana rape. He's not even on this one that
I'm looking at dr. Post.
So the coming up strong, I'm gonna have to do some homework
on that. So that might be one of those
New York shooters that we don't hear about it.
He's up there, he's alive guys. The total list and all of a
sudden yam something, right? Yep.
Well I'm a man. I think people love charlatan
right now 522. So and I'd by the way, you owe
me an apology because I was talking about that horse, what
he was lightly run. I know I just said, I just said,
let's take a wait-and-see. I just said, let's wait.
I still don't feel right. Those three horses are to or
better in the next course of 16 to 1 and you and I agree that
they're the three best horses. Right?
Oh no cool. Yeah.
I caught that. Yeah.
It's not on this list. I'd be like authentic, right?
Yeah. And he's just not on this list.
Are we going? Under the Derby, the Derby
rankings right now. Is that what we're doing?
I have in my notes. We need to stop calling them.
The Derby rankings, are the Belmont rankings?
Because it's a mile and an eighth, don't because it's Mile
and an eighth. The world's upside down, let's
call them what they are the Belmont rankings, but Salman
away, it's a month away. All right?
So, instead of being like, it's 15 weeks to the derby still,
this is where I'm going to disagree with you, but because
not all these horses are shooting for the Belmont.
But all these horses are shooting for the Derby.
Oh, sure. But it's still a million dollar
race. It still is Is and but it is
still the Derby rankings. It it's but it's 150 Point Derby
race right there. Setting this aside as clearly
the biggest prep, right - at least 100 percent should be
totally rude. Yeah, so yeah, so yeah, the
Derby 15 weeks away. I'm going to start calling them,
the Belmont rankings, you do what you want, but what donut
rankings. What are you doing up there?
You looking at the top three horses?
I think in the derby rankings, that should be right now, meteor
high in order. I'm going to, I'm going to look
like a total jackwagon. I think all three sources to be
bought bad for horses and I have okay and I was critical about
this Barn going into it just because of what happened last
year and we wanted to wait and see but I think if I'm if I'm
ranking them I'm going to go I'm going to go in the doll
charlatans authentic. So - tis law.
The doll charlatan. Okay and that is with me that is
with me having been on the charlatans bandwagon a long time
ago. I just adore how Tesla law runs
and his style and all those things.
Charlotte said to be as still a massive massive unknown even
though he did win which is interesting to me that baffert's
choosing If he if this is right that bad for choosing to send
him to Belmont and not like and I would have thought he wrote it
in a sanity to Derby horse all day.
Yeah, I don't know why he's not switching him an authentic
charlatan. It's not a to turn race at
Bella, that's because militant one turn is a real problem at
the Belmont. That's probably true.
Big problem. Where is my doll?
No, problem with two turns, right?
Just law, not gonna have to, probably two turns, right?
Charlatan one turn in the Belmont.
I think it plays really well for her.
Okay. So what does it say, what does
it say? If if the Santa Anita Derby
backwards choosing that authentic is singling that And
throwing a doll and charlatans and the Belmont.
What does that say? It says that he thinks
charlatans good at one. Turn by the way.
Honor, if he's could go either way, I think.
He also thinks the doll can win all three of these legs.
You think he thinks that all could win the Belmont?
Like the dolls are really legit. Triple Crown the red wrecked.
You think he's trying to say the new dolls is bedsores?
Yes, that's exactly what I think he said there.
If that's the case in, which he put charlatan the same needed
our be so that the extent that charlatan didn't have a chance
to beat him one on one turn that's fair.
But I think he's, I think he knows he's got a chance at one
turn and he'd rather win the race.
They just try it. A Triple Crown in a weird year.
Bob knows how to train in the spring leading up to the derby.
Like, no one else, right? Because I know, I know guys,
whatever 6, sure, right. This is different right?
And who knows? I think to charlatan is his new
justify and he has a sense that he's a great horse and let's
just send them to the front. See what happens.
But he doesn't. Does that mean charlatans have
been a justify? Can't run the fall, right?
But but, but he doesn't know, that's what I'm saying.
He's so lightly raced, right, right.
When does that ticket Rod? By the way?
Just want to make sure everyone understands that.
If this was Justifies year and just if I would not have been
running the fall, right? He was, he would have broke
down, he would have not physically been able to run.
His ankle, would have given out last week at like Churchill
Downs and some hundred thousand dollars.
Yes? Right correct.
Yep. No, it's it's a totally upside
down here. That's what you know, question
is in some ways, is that, is this year, the Triple Crown even
harder because of how much more mature before gonna be yes, of
course. Because you're going to the
derby has 20 horses and generally, speaking for five of
them are very good at that point, right?
And then you've got a bunch that are good but a bunch that are
that got enough points in the points race at this point, I
think we'll have a. I think we'll have 20 horses for
the Derby, just because I think people, if you got a chance for
another of your, on the derby, but I think of this world, let
me kind of brief. I think in the very good
category will have five or six maybe seven very good and maybe
two are excellent at that point, right?
And so yeah, I think one of the Triple Crown this year, no
question, it's harder. So is authentic your number 4
horse authentic is because they'll all be mad at number
four in the world, by number 5. Okay.
Um, no, can get almost my for I still do not but I'm not jumping
off. I really like him.
He's for, I think authentic is either five or six for me, you
know what I would actually like, of course, we've already seen
this out. I would I would get I would put
well as by you behind King Guillermo.
You're being really safe with can Guillermo and I don't mind
that but I wish he would go to the Belmont.
I think one turn Mile and an eighth.
I know they want more distance with him but you're not going to
get more distance until at the Derby.
I mean I guess it's A will be a mile corner, right?
So I guess he could shift for Trevor's but I really like him
gear my like a style. I really like Sammy Camacho, I
think there's a chance that he has a really good summer so I
would put him in my top five right now.
Will we see a American pharoah Offspring in the derby?
Yes. Okay, just because they're so
damn many of them there are because not really, there's not
a top top three. Yeah, there's not a lot on drop.
Playstyle. Right.
Well, I mean rhythm sections, pretty freaking good horse.
And And that's the one that will have to watch Fletcher's Got
Rhythm Section and he's lightly raced and so how he matures we
don't even know where he's going to go next.
I mean, that's that's the horse that I guess if you're going to
watch any of them to kind of see what happens, that's the one
that's got a shot and he benefits the most out of this
entire, this entire situation. He won his Maiden looked really
good at a mile and 16th and Gulf Stream and now we'll just have
to see where he goes. Next.
But you're going to see him in a point, race in the summer.
And so he's got a shot where he would have before.
So that's that's the one Pharaoh cold.
I think that's worth watching. Okay, so, alright, alright,
well, let's take a break and then we'll come back.
We'll handicap. For the five races.
Okay, just make sure we got our notes together and there would
be this would be our loan break. We'll just do one thing today,
right? Today that sounds.
Yeah. And then I'm just so everyone
knows just before we go to break we were we're just going to look
at the five stakes races for Saturday.
I'll go ahead. I'll people who follow us on
Twitter at horse happy hour know that I had the early pick three
and the middle pick five last weekend.
And so what I'll do this week, he'll barely his head barely fit
through the door. That's because I'm a joke.
They do not know what I'll do. Is look at me.
I got the pick three. I got to pick five people been
accent. So I'm gonna put it out there.
I'm going to text making Devon and let her know.
I didn't do that and I thought about it.
I did not try to keep the creep Factor down and the head and
then we did a got a little a show, I think actually we had a
nice back and forth with her out, Twitter about her potty
mouth and on her birthday. So that was good.
Good. Anyways, the but we will look at
the late pick five. I will put out an early pick
three and if I liked it, middle Pick 5.
I do think there are two middle Races by the way at this.
That are I think the five is a lead-in for the Wise, Dan.
All right. Well, let's handicap necks.
All right, we're gonna go to break, we'll be right back.
This is the horse racing. Happy hour.
Alright, welcome back and happy hour.
I'm here with that. Creepy white guy at the end, the
bar, lure bow. Mike and off of here.
So that would be somebody you're ready to handicap.
I'm ready to hit again just so everyone knows.
Derek Rogers, treated out either today or yesterday can remember
that they are going to guarantee 500k the all Stakes late pick
five on Saturday. That's a nice payoff.
It's not that at all. That is literally like Breeders
Cup level stuff. Yep.
And they're called this tell, you know why.
I mean, if they just, they were able to 14 million laughs.
Yeah, they're like hey, let's see.
Now we have good horses. Let's see what I mean.
Yes, bottom will girls not a terrible horse but we see gold
her and C'est Moi last week in Arctic five, kept it down to 27
bucks. Came back 240 which is great and
but we'll try to do something similar this weekend.
Guaranteed 5rk said they're calling it.
Stephen Foster preview day, which is great, I'm hoping by
then we'll actually be able to cover the stuff because I'm
holding the governor to June 8th as the date that I could get in
the damn place. So I'm holding him to it.
Heat is not said that you can get in Churchill Downs.
June a he has said, outdoor attractions.
Churchill Downs has an outdoor attraction.
I'm just telling you what They're on a June 8th, you might
be right. Because you can like we talked
about in the past, you can be socially distance in a place
like that, easily. No problem.
But I could do a show from 1923 good beer.
Anyone with our new equipment setup, we could be correct.
Like we take these headsets out, we're gold like we got it so we
can talk to Kevin will get to the gut with those guys in the
racing office and see when we do the great three.
Matt win is a derby points race, that's raised 10.
It's 20 points. So it's like the Jeff Ruby's
takes and then yeah that's that's about that.
I've got all my notes Here for a racist 7 through 11.
So you want to go to Shani first, huh?
Very cool. That they're starting a bunch of
new Stakes this year. One of them.
Actually, it's either next week or after I can't remember.
It's called the Ottoman. And so my neighborhood is
getting a shout-out at Churchill Downs.
One of the stakes races. Without this week Shawnee, if
people aren't from Louisville, that are listening.
Many of our neighborhoods, treat all the parks are named for the
Native American tribes, that lived here previously, so
Shawnee, Chickasaw, Iroquois Seneca.
All those groups that lived here called You say, you're going, I
did okay and Iroquois amphitheaters.
One of the Great Outdoor music venues in the region, all kinds
of things and the the brothers who did the Central Park, boy,
help me. Why Olmsted Lobster?
The Olmsted Brothers put together Parkways to.
I never knew there was a brother.
I just knew Frank are numerous. Yeah, wow they came here and
they worked on Louisville and named.
All the pies are sending American tribes that were here
at one point. So the Iroquois or Delta
shouting. Excuse me, there's an Iroquois
race. Yeah, but the Sean he's being
run their course in the fall. It is.
That's right. And then 8:00 to 4:30 logs here,
Phillies a for and older on the dirt.
You're gonna see two horses, right out the bat in the
Shawnee, and the Shawnee that are going to be very familiar
names. They're going to attract a ton
of money kind of money especially because Chad, ground
is pretty good, that's right. Yeah, yeah, we're you're going
to have Dunbar Road, it's going to go off as a just a really
big, you know, probably less than 1 to 1 probably less than
even money. Yeah, she feels like a 325 in
this right? Come on. 4 to 5 is the morning
line by the way and she's a Julie, that's another horse that
Carlos, Santana, Juniors honesty.
Baskets and words had has had success at Churchill Downs.
Is going to be a two to one and the outside to so easy, break
from the gate then. So do you see anybody who could
upset any of these two fillies? I do.
So the six horse in this race is Fault.
Yep. And this is a horse that
consistently runs in the 90s, remember that?
This is a mile and a sixteenth. And so you want a horse that can
do the two terms that can I run like that she is absolutely
there. This is her.
Second start off. A layoff.
She did run well last time it had a rough trip.
You're going to get a nice price.
I wrote These before, I had the morning lines.
She's ten to one. Yeah, so my sense is she'll be 7
to 1. I would say that he did want
something like that when we go off.
But I think that V is the six just so people and just just for
comparison. I mean, you're right and Vault
has run and last four races. Well let's just starting.
Let's stay in 2020. I've only got one reason 20.
That's what I'm saying. Is the second time off the
layoff? Yes.
Oh yeah. You have a lot of, a lot of
people don't know, a lot of Mayors take december-january off
because they're in season, you correct?
And so she was probably in season, so she ran in November,
then she came back at Oaklawn, didn't hit the board, and that's
where you really have to dig into these things.
But she ran a 91 speed figure and, and and nice quiet.
If she was right there, right there, I'm sure you're in
fourth, I should say she missed nine one's cute to Dunbar Road.
Who's you know again has not race in 2020 yet.
Correct. Same Stitch scenario.
Yep. But dumb borrowed last three
races. Under 101 and a 99 correct.
I don't know. There's a reason that that gun
is four to five of them were absolutely, no question.
But you're hoping hasn't run since November out in
California. What you're hoping is that you
can catch a horse on a layoff, right?
She's just not ready to break, whatever.
It might be something like that where you get lucky.
So, so one other thing. I'm absolutely, of course, have
to include Dunbar in your pick, five Dumber, there's no
question. She's a Julie has to be on you
pick five. That's not a question, but
what's not looking for deeper pick five?
I think someone like vault is in there.
Let's not. Just but let's not, you know,
again we talked about horses, I break away from the pack and
Dunbar Road might be comfortable and something the mid-80s 90
speed and just run with the pack.
I mean dumbbell row, taking a drop down in class but as not
didn't win her last two races. So she was a third and not even
hit the board in their last race out.
Now she readily distaff. Same thing was a traditional
church, just a terrific group and I can't believe Dunbar
roads. Never race a church.
Oh yeah, that was surprising to see to play finicky.
And but not so from that standpoint I really like I might
even like she's a Julie on top who hits the board five out of
six times at Churchill Downs is 1/3 of those races.
Steve excuses here. All the time, Ricardo has been
terrific this year. Absolutely.
Yep. And even though it's been a long
time since she's one as well, I mean, they're both these class
both these horses are taking a step down and classes to be
here, I'm gonna go. And by the way I do, like your
Vault Vault selection to, I wasn't trying to dog it You know
we might see like in a another horse like another broad jump up
okay who ran a really solid 94. His 1998 before has had a lot of
speed but shown a lot of speed again and that's the only other
horse. I think we could jump into that
is a up I'm looking at oh, the five the five.
Yes, sorry. This will what I'm looking at
has the know that big numbers. So I see ya my old eyes.
All right, she's getting a doctor.
Thank you. I have one.
Maybe I switch, you know. That's and that's another broad
and then Moonlight Garden. Moonlit Garden would be the
other two really good chance here.
It's interesting because horses are shipping from so many
different places, but other Broadway, and really great speed
figures at Aqueduct will be able to actually see earlier in the
day of a kind of courses are translating, right?
Yep. So I like a horse that ran last
at aqueduct in another race later.
And so we'll get a good shot here from seeing another broad
run, which is a hilarious name for a female horse, by the way.
All right. Then we go on the turf of mile
on the turf, for one of the greatest total Force has ever
seen the Tappan Stakes. So this is 43.
Year-old Phillies. Yep.
And like you said a while, eight furlongs, so go ahead.
Do you have a one that jumps out to you?
Or I would say that I like, the consistency that I've seen,
well, I'd probably go with the nine on sharing, okay?
It's really one of the morning. Yeah.
This could be your favorite. Yeah, yeah, I think they she's
been fairly consistent. She's been improving another
horse. Coming awful.
Yep. Again, not unusual for Phillies,
right? So I also like, just the
consistency of walk in the Marrakech, I guess is what you
say that. Marrakesh Marrakesh.
That's a major city in Morocco. Yeah.
All right. I'm not from Morocco.
So that's your horse is born in Ireland.
So that horse has had has been out here but has not won yet in
2020. So, you know you it's these
three year olds Phillies, did I do?
I think that the turf at Churchill is as It's much of a
difference here. Is the dirt like I think the
horses either love the dirt or they don't like the dirt at
Churchill, the core of any track frankly, right, right.
Yeah. The turf is, is translates
better and that's why greatest Cup races.
The turf wars our show. Absolutely.
The only other horse that I would maybe look at as a
potential longer shot to hit the board and I don't know what the
line is on it. But dominga.
Oh gosh. You stole it out for me 12:45.
I love to me. Get to step up.
Yeah. So different than most of the
horse has won or Turtle. Yep.
Yeah, Brad Cox. Brad kashan Bridge Mahan, let's
go stepping up a class. But frankly, there aren't many
Turf Stakes at a mile for two-year-old Phillies.
Anyway, I think that Outburst is another horse here.
That's really good. The 752 one, that that would be
a terrific price. Almost has three, two one.
I'm seeing here Olmsted even catch my eye, which is, which is
interesting. And makes me worried that I
didn't do my job here, but the other horse that I think if they
get in the race, why do dogs not Catch your eye.
I'm worried that I didn't do a good job here.
That's what I'm saying. Well, I mean heshes 444, right,
right. This is what I'm saying.
Like, 9090 184 has been on the turf in 12 races, Adam.
I'll I mean that's that's a solid, you know, Paco Lopez.
It's a solid that's a solid play.
I think it's because the horse. Brandon, a 60,000 dollar race
last time out, but but for sure, no reason that it's not a solid
play, the horse that I think if they get in is the 15.
I love ya. Watch for the 15.
One of the things we had to do last week to hit the pick, five
is include a 17 horse from the 17 gate because of an also
eligible. And that's who came in in the
last race and paid are paid our bills.
So don't don't, sleep are going to react with I think on
Saturday, right? Give me five but some of these
horses get in, they've entered for three races.
Something right? Because they know there's
fifteen sixteen horses in these fields.
And so just Eve of War, which is terrific name for horse. 98 be
putting last time out, correct. It has to be put in.
I think in any any multi-race sort of pick here and is another
step up in class here but is coming from Gulfstream.
If you can run quickly on the crappy grass at Gulfstream, you
could definitely do the church allows.
All right, so the next race, if we can move on, is that?
All right, is the flame. Which I was there, when blame
because in yada, it was one of the great race calls of all
time. I will say, oh, you know, this
is what turn mile for four-year-olds.
Yeah. But you know what it is this is
the the equivalent of like when WWE does the Royal Rumble and
brings back all the old wrestlers like you recognize
their name. But they weren't really all that
good correct. That's what that's what this is.
I mean, longer a style, all great horse, your personal horse
bourbon re solution. Yeah, carbonara Solutions, will
begin Adele, ever fast, always mining, mr.
Bunny, diamond king, it's actually frankly.
This is a loaded fuel for a hundred thousand dollars, it is.
And honestly, you know, Ozzy was bourbon, are a bourbon
resolution. Bourbon or easily totally
playable are absolutely. Holy basically like recent a
happened, stupid 30 to 1 and you got a horse that's been in the
ninety four. Ninety 90 98 100.
I mean, that's, that's, that's a great play right there.
All right, so I do want to say one thing about this race and I
love it. I liking and looks so people
know long-range toddies name. Yep.
Don't play that horse. I watched his last two races, he
doesn't want to race anymore. Now he's done that.
That horse is done. Stay away from long range sniper
fast, ever fastest playable here.
I like Diamond King here. Okay, I know it's the 14 Diamond
Dallas Page outside has not been hurt and had 21.
I can't believe it frankly so I love Diamond King in this race
as a longer shot. That's kind of a win place, show
kind of play or you know, throw them in your try, for trying to
hit a try here with 14 horses, good luck with that.
But I mean, honestly, I mean, I didn't even, I don't think I
mentioned mr. Money, I'm it's just loaded for
100,000. There's a lot of great horses
here. It's really, it's really a fun
filled, but when Dale at 321, I think you try to beat Global
campaigns are pretty good horse too.
I think you have to look at him. I would, you know, in this is
another one. Diamond King look, great at
aqueduct in March. Are you gonna go with my
extraordinary Jerry? Because that's who I'm picking
in this race? Yeah, the not extraordinary
Jerry. Yeah, I told one 12:48, there
you go. Nice number, I do, I'm going to
stay with a diamond king at anyone.
Okay, I'll take the nine. You know, you're a longer shot
horses. This is what were you can
actually play. Both of them across and I'm
going to play bourbon already Solutions.
Yeah. That is for people to understand
that I own a real estate brokerage the name of it re
Solutions and so it is bourbon resolutions but bourbon
resolution probably bourbon at re Solutions there's lots of
bourbon at re Solutions. All right.
I also I'm a second start off the layoffs kind of guy.
Yeah so for horse has to take a layoff and then they come back
and they look good enough for their first start again, die be
king second time, obviously, there improve.
I think he's going to get better.
I like him a lot here, actually. All right, I love it.
Attend to what I'm thrilled about.
Out. Then we go.
That is the mat win. So we're gonna win.
We are at the, the Derby prep race.
The actual graded Stakes are everything else is a listed
Stakes today, or outside or excuse me.
But this is a grade 350,000 return of Maxfield.
Yeah, this is it and he won the Breeders Futurity at Keeneland,
his last time out. He's been silent since that huge
lay off. He's going to take a ton of
money to me. You got to play this multi-race.
Yes. But to me, this is where you bet
against Hawaii. Totally agree.
I love pneumatic here. The to you get Ricardo Santana
jr. And you get Steve asmussen
together 94-95 speeds at Oaklawn this year.
I love to Medicare Churchill Downs by the way, last Saturday
was super favorable to speed even with a wet track, okay?
The track people over there just get it right and it's a fair
track. I was laughing because someone
called it Chalk Hill Downs, last Saturday and I'm like, no it's
just not a crappy track. This is a 60 jockey Colony with
With the top trainers and everything else.
I mean, no, this is legit. There are three other horses to
look at here night traffic which is not New York traffic, right.
I think I said it right there. Yeah, it is not driving traffic
and then hang on. That's why trafficking into one
terrific and that's a horse. You finished second.
Louisiana Derby which, which we both.
I was a good Louisiana Derby. So attachment rate was that for
worse? I'm going with, okay, so by the
way, I got killed on this show for saying that was Dale Romans
best horse in. March.
Yep, I killed for that. I don't know if you got killed,
you might, you'll have to be. By the way, I look pretty smart
right now because that horse is is the second choice, okay?
And then major fed. Is is another horse.
You have to look at here and hang on.
Who beat my traffic in the Risen star.
See exactly. Where we saw at night traffic.
Got revenge in the progenitor be.
Yep, not driving. My traffic is a shockingly
consistent horse. He's tacitus to this year, he's
going to hit the board. I would agree that you play him
in your Exotics. That's exactly right.
I don't know that he wins but he's their attachment rate major
fed. I think attachment has a better
chance of winning than those other two horses.
But that's this is where I think you get on the ground at
Churchill Downs on the horse like attachment rate and Dale,
Romans, he gets here. Gets very comfortable Dale.
Romans wins a lot of Churchill Downs, whatever the jokes are.
He's the winningest trainer here all time for a reason it's kind
of interesting because with attachment retail ran him really
early right? And then obviously knew he
wasn't ready. I don't know if there was any
health concerns with that horse after that, but he no one, it
seems his more willing to say it horse needs to stop the door.
Opens. Exactly.
I really he will he will just take.
He will, with Dennis is moment. I mean, he had the Price Is
Right. Yes, so this horse, get this
horse ran. First race almost, you know,
almost 11 months ago, ran finish 11th out of 12 10.
There you go. Yeah.
And then didn't run again and 2019.
Come out in 2020 and has running the Gotham came in third in the
Gotham run. The unbridled and came in
second. It looks like he's constantly
improving even those. And in since he's come back as a
as a three-year-old in the 2020 campaign, consistently in the
90s, I think, Is a really good play and hopefully for Dale, I'd
love for him to have a derby starter.
Totally. This is where this is where the
good stories start is he can jump up and win on Saturday.
All of a sudden were talking about Adele, Roman Source again,
right? Because the dentist is moment
thing, frankly is it's not, it's not tragic.
Know, it's unfortunate. It's unfortunate because that's
physically that horse should be great and he's just not great.
So then the war chance there is eleven hundred thousand dollars
here at. Am I late for lungs are year?
Old Turf raised here? Yeah and then actually, you're
going to see some names. Here that we're on the Derby
trail, that decided to go to the turf route like South Bend who
we saw in person if I'm not mistaken we had.
Yeah and I was actually going to mention stable boy and I saw the
five horse feel pass. Yep.
In the Jeff Ruby's case. He won the Jeff Ruby's.
Take some. What's interesting is as soon as
the race was over we talked about on the show that week.
The owner said yeah we're not really shoot for the Derby even
though we have Derby points. And I was looking back.
That was March 14. I think that was the last day.
Anyone could really do anything before all the locked out.
Yeah, you know, probably. And it was it even for us, you
know, we were really the only ones in that building, you know,
as far as media and so but feel past.
I was I thought, I thought you know what, got to include them.
We had 1821 horse, hit in our pick, five last week, came down
from Turfway. Feel passes coming from Turf
way, that's easy. Travel to those horses seem to
be translating to church. Oh well, I'm going to stay with
field passive. Maybe it's just bias from having
seen him but great horse. You get Jose, right?
Is it Jose Ortiz? I just literally just move.
So let's see, we are? Yes Jose Ortiz - yep.
You get Jose again for two one. Yep.
Four to one is still a nice number.
That tells you how wide open they think this race is that for
to one is your morning line leader.
That's incredible. Right.
So, for to 1922 5 2016, 21 5 to 1, lots of options here, I don't
think Short trip down, 71 is going to be hard on them.
The other horse that I wrote before, I saw the morning line
was Hieronymus, the sixth. And of course, Hieronymus is 92.
I really like the product numbers, Brad, Cox again, I
don't mind if all of my movies end up on the same shelf here, I
really trust. Brad Cox all the turf at church
way at church. We could go to church way.
That's what that's, what's going on right there.
Kind of it. Yeah.
And so, yes, he's the six, right?
Yep. Hieronymus is the sixth field.
Passes the five, it might be an exactor for me, the five and six
because I think those two are the best.
So have you come up with a pick five better.
You're going to wait. I'm gonna I'll put it on
Saturday but I'm just giving my my top top plays here for people
as they start to think about who they're going to include.
Okay. Yeah, I mean we're just kind of
we're sorting it out. I want everyone to kind of
understand when I put out picks on our Twitter page and I don't
mention anyone, it's just me. But if I mentioned people by
name, it's because my can I have both picked races and we, you
know, we're kind of very friendly.
By the way, we very rarely have actual personal Wagers on these
things going ahead against each other to see who picked better,
you know, maybe for like a Breeders Cup Saturday or
something like that, whatever. But this week, I'll put out,
both people's picks, for sure will write yours down tonight
and make sure those are available and then frankly you
and I were different on for these.
Yeah, I mean this is a wide open day which is true.
I mean there's meets you know it's nice to have For $40,
you're going to run that 5K and 500k.
You're going to earn it. That's right.
That's so it's gonna be a little bit harder.
That's right. Yep.
All right. What else is in your notes that
we haven't got to yet? That's it man.
We got it all we did. So it's like time to pay the tab
and get out of here. They can be.
All right, all right horse, happy hour on Twitter.
People want to shoot us a note. It's horse racing happy hour at
gmail.com and so you want to hear the exciting thing that
we're working on right now. Louis it.
So we're working on switching our platform over to Anchor this
true. And what anchor also allows us
to do is you will be able to leave us a voice.
Message and we will and if you keep them clean will play them.
Yeah. Well so we'll well you know if
you have a question if you got something that we you know we'll
put them on the air, will you would have to give us permission
but we're happy to do that. Well, if you leave the voicemail
message, you're giving us permission got.
So the we're basically doing the switch to have a little bit
better. Statistics, we're still going on
Last Words Castle, we all live sportscaster local guys will ya
and but we're also going to be able to just have some another
level of Agent with our fans are not our fans.
So that's the only, I guess we have fans, I don't know our
listeners. The people who, you know, what?
We have a fair number of fans. Sure.
But I don't want to be thinking about that way.
I was more like, again, we're two guys drinking and talking
about horse racing, and if someone else wants to join the
conversation, we're inviting you to the table.
That's a better way of looking to talk about.
All right, so just a reminder to we Mike had plans today.
I had the well or 12 year, our early results on the pole is
that the well or 12 year? Is there any to anyone's over
plans? Not yet?
Okay. But But I think that'll change.
Its I don't have put out for 24 hours.
Okay, we'll see what happens. We'll see what happens.
We'll update that next week, thanks to everyone who does
interact with us on Twitter. It's been fun and to the show,
of course, at horse happy hour on Twitter, and then horse
racing, happy hour at gmail.com. And then once the voicemail
option is up, we'll let you know.
Yeah, so we'll be, we'll be back next time here on the horse
racing. Happy hour.