Alabama, Del Mar Oaks, & Lake Placid

We do welcome in Kevin Kilroy now from lots of different

places, but of course at First Gen.

Sports with us over there as well.

Dan is in Chicago and I know you are a fan of Chicago.

Kevin, if you had one day you fly into Chicago, I'm giving you

the Danisel itinerary. Okay, you fly into Chicago early

morning and you're going to a Cubs game in the afternoon.

What do you do for the morning and the early afternoon before

Cubs game? Four Cup team morning, early

afternoon. Assume it's hot up there.

I think he's getting perfect weather actually, if I remember

correctly. Yeah, you.

Got it. I get a cup of coffee and go to

the, you know, the lake High 70s the whole day, man.

Yeah, yeah. Enjoy that.

Take it easy. Then, I don't know, just hop on

the red line and ride up and down it all the way from Howard

down to 95th St. Dan, Ryan.

You know, just see the people you know.

That's one of the best parts of Chicago.

See the people maybe pop off on the blue line and head up to

Bang Bang Pie and Biscuits in Logan Square.

Dan, you ever been there before? Oh, there you go.

All right. Well, we will have to have ask

Dan about that. He's not.

No, I'm not kidding. He got up at 3:00 AM in Denver

today. He got up at 3:00 AM in Denver

today to go to Chicago to his son.

Got him a a Cubs experience where Dan gets to go on the

field at Wrigley Field and he is a Dan 74.

He's been a fan of the Cubs for 74 years.

So there you go. It's.

The same son you like that fix 6.

It is the same son who now has money for things like this, yes.

A great guy. So I thought you do it.

You gotta, you gotta, you gotta celebrate your day when you make

money like that. That's awesome.

I love that guy. Well, there you go.

Kevin Kilroy with us at Trust Your Luck on Twitter.

Find all his stuff at first Gen. of course.

What bougie places are you writing for this weekend?

Is there? Bougie and horse raising is

that, is that, is that a thing that's like oxymoron, right?

I just assume everything that isn't us as bougie.

Yeah, do you know that? Same deal, same deal doing the

in the money media side, the coin and make sure and sign up

for that newsletter doing the first Gen. the best spot to be

that always. Right.

And I don't think I'd talk about this very much, but I was right

for for the Edge, for Twin Spires Edge, do a, you know,

like a sort of catching my eye column at the beginning of the

week and then a betting strategy won at the end.

Those are 222 big things. I think, you know, celebrating

and telling the stories of of these horses and the connections

and then also thinking through not just the handicapping but

how to structure your tickets. Those are two big things I like

to do in this sport. So that's where I'll be at.

Popular thing that you've started to put together for us.

I I think you're probably over a month into this but they didn't

know a week looking back look back at the the week that was in

the in the races that we missed and and you talk about 5

favorites from the Cox bar and finish third or lower on Sunday

at Ellis Park. But we watched set piece win the

Arlington million. Man, I'll be honest, I had the

cross country pick five, but I did not have set piece in it.

Dude, set piece. Have you been always against

that piece? He's one of those horses.

No, no. I just assumed that Brad Cox

knew what he was doing and had to run him at a mile and 1/4 for

a reason. Man, Yeah, he.

You know when they were loading up in the gates?

I thought to myself, who is that set piece 5 to 1 like?

Come on. And there he is winning you know

and you know Floran Giroux that he has riders regular rider.

He's always been very high on that horse so he's been his

favorite horse and then the other next day he flies back to

Ellis Park and goes over 5 on the the favorite cocks.

You know, maybe maybe that in the night before he went out

celebrating and didn't didn't bring his game face, but some of

those, some of those. I think you could have seen on

the paper that they weren't going to get it done before,

before the races as well. And so that that's the type of

thing. I think looking back, you know

we we make money in this, in this game, it's such a great

gambling game for for making, for making good money and

getting good, good value. But we make it by beating

favorites, right? That's just, that's just the

core of it and the sharper you can get at that.

The more time you can spend study and not only who's going

to win, but why a favorite might lose and the more savvy you can

get there, the better. So, you know, I'm trying just to

compile as many of those as I can as I see them as they come,

Not just talk about it abstractly, but find those

specific races that we can look back to and see what was going

on there. And hopefully that's helping out

those handicappers out there. There you go.

Kevin Kilroy with us. All right, So let's go up to

Saratoga tomorrow. An interesting day because it is

really focused around and you know, I like that they do this.

So this week you get the three-year old Phillies and then

next week you'll get the Traverse and and the the Open

Company next week. So A2 turn race on the grass, A2

turn race on the dirt. Something I've never understood,

Kevin, is why we asked Phillies in this country at three years

old to run 75 different distances in the most important

races, but that's neither here nor there.

Let's start though with one of my favorite bets, and if people

don't know it, I was explaining it to Dan, but I think I I got

to it way too late in the show. The Grand Slam bet at NYRA is a

very fun bet. It's essentially a pick four,

but in the first three legs. Your job is to get as many

horses as you can that are going to hit the board on your ticket

and then in the last leg in in the fourth race.

So this week for example, it's races 789 and 10.

So in 7-8 and nine your job is to to just pick horses that

finish first, second or third in those races and then when you

get to the 10th race you have to pick the winner.

If you don't have the winner, you don't hit the ticket and so

you can hit the. You can hit it multiple times

Kevin, essentially where you know if you have two horses that

hit the board in the first race, three in the second race and one

in the third race, you still have 6 combinations going into

the final. So that's pretty.

So even if the even if the payouts like 12:50 it could

still pay you 60 bucks if you have the right horse.

Gotcha. So you stay alive to multiple

tickets if you use multiple runners and they all hit in the

money there. I love it, yeah.

So I think. You're turning me on too, and I

think it's interesting one, especially in thinking about not

only just taking the right horses, but the strategy, right.

I mean, when any of these pools we're always trying to think of.

What's everybody else going to do, right?

Because if we just have the same ticket, the same runners as

everybody else, then we're not going to get that value that we

want. So yeah, let's, let's walk

through this and try to think through them who who you can get

up there, but where we can be a little bit savvy and separate

from the pack. I think it's also fun too.

If you're a better like me, Kevin and I'll be really honest,

I'm not in this to be super profitable or anything.

I'm in it there. There's an absolute element of

entertainment for me, and I'm much more likely to be alive in

a ticket that requires me to finish first, second and third

that I am just to pick winners. And so it's also a way to keep

my attention longer on a Saturday as well.

But we start with I love. That I mean sports.

Fetters get 2 hours worth of the game, right?

And sometimes with concentration you get 2 minutes.

So this, it definitely sustains that thrill, which I love.

I love that. Yeah.

All right, so late. Pick five starts here.

And of course as well, that Grand Slam bet.

Race 7 is the grade to Lake Placid.

Do you know what happened at Lake Placid?

Kevin No. What happened?

They held the Winter Olympics there twice and the the

Americans beating the Soviets in 1980 happened at Lake Placid.

They named it after the race after that location mile and the

16th on the turf. 3 year old Philly's 200K here because we

don't pay enough for turf racing.

And then we wonder why the turf racing stinks in this country.

Where did you land on this one, Kevin?

All right, so we've got 4 interesting pace scenarios in

this in this Grand Slam and started off here with the late

class and we've got a lot of lot of speed, right, a lot of front

runners. You can see Heavenly Sunday

likely to go forward. Glorious Princess has got early

speed also looking on the outside, their prerequisites and

has done some damage at the front.

So in thinking in terms of, you know, just trying to be in the

money with this, I think we want to take off the pace.

Runners in here, So for me, look at the number 2 Aspray.

Or do you say Aspray 4 tax implications and then #7 surge

capacity? Those are the three that I want.

Glorious Princess is one I think is dangerous in here as well,

but might, you know, might suffer the consequences of being

a little bit too forward against all this other speed in the air.

SO247 is where I'll go. Yeah, I think I have seven and

two in my top two selections here.

So you and I are very much thinking the same thing here.

Ton of rain today. They're actually off the turf at

Saratoga. I think we're going to have wet

go in general tomorrow. Might dry out on the dirt a bit,

but I think for grass purposes we're going to have a softer

sort of go search capacity. Winning over a yielding course

in the Lake George last time grade 3 at Saratoga.

First first out against winners. Goes ahead and wins the stakes

race after breaking her maiden at at Monmouth.

Comes back. Wins that race at Saratoga.

I agree with you about a spray, by the way with Flavian Pratt

for Chad Brown. I don't know if you just don't

play the four Chad Browns and then move on from this.

Race. But it is what it is, I was

saying last night on the podcast.

One of my favorite things that started to happen is this

ownership group that makes Soviet jokes and names their

horses after it. But Soviet Excess is just a

terrific horse name. It just is and that's a Dylan

Davis at Todd Pletcher combination.

I'm interested because I think that horse hits the board and if

we can pick off horses in the earlier races that are less

likely to hit the board and we miss one of those horses, misses

the board. Let's say prerequisite the 8th

for some reason coming out of a grade one ran second misses the

board in this race with IRAD for some reason.

I don't know what the reason. Maybe the Softco, it doesn't

play to that horse very well. We have Soviet excess instead.

Ira and just just get them out of it.

They're angry about all the calls going his way upstairs.

But if a Soviet excess hits and a prerequisite misses, then we

get even better of a payout on that combination in the Grand

Slam. So I would look at a Soviet

excess as well as. You go ahead.

So if you're able to get one, then that ticket's going to be

alive in ways that all the other tickets aren't right.

You'll have that sort of that loan or that less likely when

they're going forward. Love it.

Yes, Dan is off today. Texture, just so you know.

Yes, the next race is an optional claimer.

We're going a mile on that Ellis Park shoot at Saratoga, $80,000

on the claiming price, $162,000 purse and 125,000 if you are not

a New York bred, I wish they would just list it that way.

But hey, that's not how the form works.

Where did you land here on the one miler on the dirt here,

Kevin. All right.

So again, think about pace, because I do think that's a big

part of trying to get a horse in the money, right?

It's having that race flow go their way.

This should be a slow pace. You know, I've got #3 in here

projected on the lead gerrymander.

Has been. So far has been.

You know a good four year old campaign for you know, the Chad

Brown horse here. Should be able to, doesn't need

to lead, should be able to get towards the front.

I'm not sure if that's the one I want to take in here.

I think this might be the leg that I get a little bit a little

bit cute in. There's a couple in here.

Number six Moseyenko. Coming out for Dennis Lawman,

who has, you know, been showing some really good form and some

sticky numbers on 3rd graphs. We're going to get a little bit

more distance in here, but. We could see a nice run there,

but I am a little bit concerned about that one in terms of the

pace set up. So that's what I'm a little bit

questionable about. If we look farther down, we see

Misty Bale, there's a couple in here that Royal take charge as

well that no Lasix. We just haven't seen the big

run, right. And they've been trying stakes

company, greatest stakes company where you're for the most part

you're not able to to use Lasix, right, not able to use that race

day medication. So now we're slotted into this.

That was, you know, one of the conditions that's still

available to him, and Misty Vale seems very live in here.

Mike Maker IRAD teaming up on that one.

If we just look three and four races back we can see the type

of figures that we need to be fast enough to beat these.

And then also Royal take Charge #5 coming out for Al Stall.

Definitely one who impressed me a ton of fairgrounds over the

winter and had a nice win at Churchill at the end of May

there. Went to the grade two at

Delaware Park and just was nowhere to be seen.

That was that was no latex also against the likes of idiomatic.

So that was a a tough race there.

I think we should be forward. We've got Ray Gutierrez, one of

my favorite jocks out there. We should be able to get a good

ride from the spot, the outside of gerrymander and and be up in

the money there at the end. I think people are going to

sleep on royal take charge and could be live in here so, you

know, nostalgic. It's it's the one that I think a

lot is going to be used by most in here.

And I get it. She could preach, but why aren't

we in stakes against stakes company right now?

You know, I mean like there was a prep race last time.

It seemed like that was going to prep towards back to stakes.

But here we are still in this lot.

And you know the Dolphins, they're not in any rush to get

to get their horses. You know, the wind and they're

not worried about money and purses, all that type of stuff.

So maybe it's just a patient play.

I've seen a lot of good dolls and horses campaign patiently

and so that could explain it. But Bill Mott's got this one

back against, you know, allowance company and maybe

we're not going to take that next step forward.

We've definitely seen her have a great run off the layup and not

improve the second and third time off.

So that could be the case there. Movie moxie one that I'm

interested in if you if you just wanted a horse that you're

trying to hit the board with four to one here one last time,

has run 8 times this year and hit the board six times.

Never missed the board at the distance.

So that's the kind of stuff when I'm playing this kind of bet

that I look at as well. Eight runs at the distance, four

wins 2 seconds and 2/3 for Linda Rice who is absolutely on fire.

Horses in for the tag because she she won last time out, so

she doesn't meet that condition. She's carrying the most weight

and sometimes when horses are carrying a lot of weight, Kevin,

it just means they've had good recent success.

We'll go to the biggest race of the day.

It is the Alabama. It's grade one for three-year

old Phillies. They're going the longest

they're ever going to go. We're going the classic

distance, a mile and a quarter $600,000 on the line.

We get wet paint is coming back out after a win at Saratoga in

the CCAA Oaks. Did you land on someone that

isn't wet paint? Because again, we're just trying

to hit the board. I think she's very, very likely

to hit the board here, Kevin. Yeah, I think she is too.

I think wet paint and Julia shining the two and the three in

terms of reading to get the the distance, they're the most

likely there. So I do think you know I know

you were looking at Julia shining in the morning so I had

the Derby or sorry head of the Oaks just like I was and she,

she looked fantastic that we haven't seen her race since

then. She's just been training up to

this spot but she she looked like she was back in her in her

a game. So for me, Julia shining.

Is the one I want to lean on here but also Taxed after that

that great win in the Black Eyed Susan.

You know Randy Morrison's on Steve Dick's show he was talking

about the more distance the better for Taxed.

So that last run there mile and 16th, I was kind of surprised to

see shortened up and now here we are at a mile and a quarter.

I think Taxed should be able to get the distance and should be

able to work out a good trip running to unlike the hot pace

here. Yeah, second, first and 2nd.

Her last three times out. Again, we're just trying to hit

the board of these horses. A must use there.

I'm interested to see randomized in this spot as well for Chad

Brown the 8 horse with Joel Rosario because she's going to

get the lead in this group is that one that just holds on at

the end and gets us, keeps us alive on the ticket gambling.

Girls are really interesting. Horse didn't didn't perform

well. Last out in that CCA Oaks.

I'm interested. Can she get back to that form

where she only almost won the freaking Kentucky Oaks, man?

Can she get back into that? Can I read give her more of a

proper trip here? Kind of slow things down and get

her into that spot as well? I don't know.

Fire lines are really interesting.

One here, try the Delaware Oaks. Last time out didn't seem to

like the two turns. So I'm a little concerned coming

back here for Chad Brown, but I don't think he tries her here if

he doesn't think there's something to be done as well.

So that's an interesting one. Fire line.

The five there with Javier Castellano might be a horse that

ends up hitting the board as well, but the one that matters

for us, which is hilarious by the way we were doing this last

night. The Alabama is more prestigious

at this point now in horse racing than the Kentucky Oaks,

right? I just not the good judge to

that. It's all about how much they pay

me if I get it right. You know, but I don't know.

What's your argument there? I like.

I like this. I say I think by the time that

we get to this part of the year so the Kentucky Derby is the

Derby right and that will for for the foreseeable future that

isn't going to change. The Traverse is the second most

important three-year old race in non Triple Crown years.

OK, but like episode or one three-year old of the year last

year when Modern Games was clearly had a better three-year

old season because he won the the Traverse right.

I mean to me that that like that shows that that's how voters

think. But the Alabama to me is, is the

like. This field is a better field

than we had earlier on for the Kentucky.

Oaks Yeah, this feels awesome. It's awesome, right?

I thought it was right. Yeah, right.

It was good this year. Yes, I agree.

Yeah, but we do see this is sort of the.

If you get through this test right, this is the gauntlet that

if you get through this threshold then you really do

emerge and and likely to go on to be a strong four year old

that you keep on racing, right. You can think about what Mao

thought that she she wanted and that gets me on Julia Shawn.

And yeah, I like this argument for sure, you know, because

sometimes it's just. But yeah, I mean we can talk

about the Derby that way too, right?

In terms of that that sort of criteria like do you move

forward, do you keep on racing, Do you continue to have a big

career? You know, and a lot of times the

Oaks and the Derby are just stopping points as opposed to

starting points for a strong career.

All right, let's do a quick pick then.

On race 10, optional claimer here 62 G's.

If you want to grab a horse, $156,000 and the purse are going

to mile on the inner turf course there at Saratoga.

Who are your most likely winners here, Kevin?

You know, sloky slight is makes me really intrigued moving to

the turf here. I don't want to use sloky slight

in this bet specifically, but the figures fit and that that

recent form is is pretty, pretty nifty.

But we've got a lot of pace in here.

You know on this inner turf course we've seen some great

trips be worked out from, you know, you know on the rail or

near near the rail. Give me Napoleonic War #2.

Chad Brown, Bobby and Pratt Blinkers on 2nd.

Started a four year old. Should move forward.

That last effort was stuck wide, tending to the pace a little bit

and it was a hot pace. Got the lead but couldn't hang

on. That was a mile, 16th hour and

mile. A lot makes sense for this.

Peter Brandt owned 4 year old Gelden, son of a war front, so

#2 Napoleonic War. There you go.

I will go to Irad and when I need the Irad to come through it

probably won't happen but play second through DQ last time.

Was verbal and I think verbal finishing by less than a length

and a half and an optional claimer at Belmont.

Go in the firm go will like the go at Saratoga tomorrow if they

are off the turf by the way in this race tomorrow check out

call me Harry. The three has won over wet go

with an 88 speed figure in the slop and aqueduct before Louis

Sy is a board there for Fernando Abreu.

Might be the long shot that ends up stealing this ticket.

So look at the three, Call me Harry in the 10th race if they

are off the turf. All right, Kevin, man, we

appreciate you very much and people go check you out at First

Gen. Sports 1ST, gensports.com and at

trust your luck on Twitter. Appreciate you man.

Louie, thanks so much. Good luck this weekend.

No problem. He is presented by our friends

at the Kentucky Thoroughbred Development Fund and at the KY,

the Kentucky HBPA as well. Getting ready.

We had them all out on Tuesday at Blind Squirrel for Kentucky

Downs Preview day. Obviously the racing continues

at Ellis Park this weekend and then we will move to Kentucky

Downs in the coming weeks. Make sure you check them out.

KYHBPA, the Kentucky Horse Breeders and Benevolent

Association over there. I would bring in my friend John

Lindo from Out West Thoroughbred LA.

Check out all of their stuff. They're on on the weekends.

John just did a hit in Las Vegas and now he's doing a hit in

Louisville. Do you feel important, John?

Greetings in Southern California, Louie.

And no, actually just doing my job, but it's great that there's

interest in the racing from out here.

Delmar is always fun. So it's a very popular signal in

the time of guest facilities in Las Vegas.

And you know, it's anytime we can promote the racing, we're

going to do it. Awesome.

So yeah, go check him out as well out there Thoroughbred LA

you can find all of their stuff online.

They have a nice streaming service, easy to follow them as

well. Delmar every year John, it's a

it's a remarkably consistent thing.

You get the field sizes, you get the purses, everything else.

But man the payouts are always really big and to me it's one of

the more difficult places to handicap.

What do you think it is about Delmar?

Is it just it the fact that it does feel kind of like a one off

or is it Is it just the the built in nature of having those

field sizes? Well yeah, I think the field

size is the biggest thing and and the the thing about it is

one of the reasons we have the field sizes is the ship and win

program out here which entices the owners to come on out and

they pay the shipping price, you know the the van bills and what

not. And and then there's a big first

bonus on on dirt and turf depending on what service you're

running on. So that brings a lot of new

faces that we haven't seen to Southern California.

And so with that, we're not seeing the same old races.

You have new faces and different types of races and.

The turf horse in Delmar is different from the turf at San

Anita, so there's a lot of factors.

And then you mixed in an average of over nine horses per race so

far at the meat. It makes some great wagering

opportunities and there's value to be found and the IT may for

us, it's just really refreshing. It's fun to get out of every

every summer. For those of us in the Midsouth,

do you put the weather up at the top of the Delmar track feed

just to annoy us? That is the best Chamber of

Commerce call you can ever make. Isn't it Still shot facing?

Oh, it's 78 and Sunny. I had no idea.

Oh who? Who do?

Who could have? Who could have predicted that it

would be 78 and Sunny at Delmar? Yeah, well, you know when it

gets to 75 we start complaining. So you know it's it's been

incredible. And they have right at the West

End of the grandstand they just pointed over across the street

is the beach and there's a shot of dog beach out there where the

dogs could be running around and.

And when the sun's shining and and you know, you're looking at

that and again, a place like Las Vegas where it was 115 degrees,

that's why we have a lot of cars in the parking lot with Arizona

and the Nevada license plate. So it brings the people out and

it really is a fun place to be and.

Yeah, it. I love that shot too.

You look at this. Ah, we're back home again.

It's it's a lot of fun. John Lindo with us at John Lindo

60 on Twitter, really good follow there as well.

Keeps you up to date and and look he brags about the weather.

It is what it is. You you got to deal with that

part of John. It's OK.

John's been a regular guest for us.

Go ahead. You have a.

Hurricane warning coming up late, I know.

Well luckily the weather seems to know what dates they're

running it at. At said excuse me at Delmar.

So they're not going to mess with the schedule too bad that

way. The my only comment was I'm glad

they're naming some of those those those storms after women,

because I feel like men were carrying the brunt of the naming

of all of those stars for too long.

They're ridiculous. Well, we're supposed to get one

coming in from Otto Poco and maybe potentially on the IT

could affect Sunday's races. We should be good today and and

the Saturday card should be fine, but we actually might get

a little rain which would be that's the biggest upset of the

meat weatherman in San Diego. Probably the best job in news

right now. That's one of those I can do

Delmar Oaks, I think so. I just.

I don't fit in a suit as well as those people do.

I All right, so the Delmar Oaks is tomorrow discussing this as

well. What percentage of derbies and

oaks do you think are on the turf rather than on the dirt?

It's got to be about 1/3, right? Yeah.

If if that you know and it's it's really is a Delmar the the

three-year old down here they really focus on the grass racing

So yeah the Oaks is on the grass and like you say it's kind of

strange that you see it in Oaks and.

We have in in the end of the year the American Oaks which is

a mile and a quarter the last three-year old only race at

Santa Anita. So we do have a few oaks and and

then those types of races on the grass out here and again it it

brings for large fields you know all with all the the big

three-year old races back in New York we got a field of 10 for

the the Y'all Marrows was a great one tomorrow.

So it's an important race for these Philly John Lindo with us

at John Lindo 60 on Twitter. Go find him.

They're Thoroughbred LA as well. thoroughbredla.com Go check out

all of their shows on the weekends, especially a must

follow if you're following West Coast racing.

The Delmar Oaks is tomorrow. It's a mile and an eighth from

the shoot. We'll get that.

That beautiful South African tones of of Trevor on the call

$300,000 for Phillies. Obviously three years old if

we're calling it an Oaks. A bunch of interesting horses in

here actually. And we were, you know, between

talking about the Alabama and the Lake Placid man.

To me, John, this is the race, I think, of those 3 where we might

be able to find the most value. I think so.

The favorite in the race is probably going to be #5, Anna

said. This is a Philly that trainer

Leonard Powell has brought in from Europe.

It's strange. Even though she ran three times

overseas, she never ran on the grass.

She was always a synthetic horse and came to California and

debuted in the US at Santa Anita and the allowance race against

older Phillies. And she won that despite

trouble. And then she came back in the

Grade 2 San Clemente. Earlier in the meet and she was

really impressive. She just powered through the

field and won by almost 3 lengths under wraps at the

wires. And the way she did it really

caught the eye. She's got a nice turn of foot

and you really need that on on the grass course at Delmar.

It's it's a course that you can get up from behind.

We saw yesterday coming back off the off the dark days Thursday

with the rails out 30 feet that every every race on the grass

was wired to wire. So that was a little bit of an

aberration but the rails will go back to their normal settings on

the on Saturday you'll have the full length of the church course

and that usually gives those horses from off the pace some

somewhere to work. And it it's a it's a course that

in general, you know, you want a European style kind of stay

covered up inside, ankle out and blast home.

It's interesting and and John Lindo with us you bring up

wanting to be a closer a horse that's in this race that's going

to if if stalk or if inherit the lead is going to be big pond the

seven is a cow bread. Reminds me a little bit of a

couple weeks ago in the Bing Crosby when we all tried to

figure out if the chosen Ron could jump up and keep those

times going. The speed going against grade

one horses does a horse like big pond in your mind.

I know. Lightly raced.

She hasn't been in a ton of spots.

She comes in, wins the the state bread, last time out for trainer

trainer, Tim Yak team. Do you think she's got a serious

shot, at least to hit the board tomorrow?

She's got to have a. Little bit of a chance of, you

know, she won the Fleet Treat Stakes in her second career

start here at Del Mar, going 7 furlongs on the dirt.

So this is her first time around two turns.

It's her first time on turf, so there's a lot of questions to

ask. She's by a California sire named

Mr. Big who will get you a grass horse.

So the breeding's okay for that, but she's going to be in a in a

tricky spot because of the speed of the race is going to be #4

Ruby Nell from train to Richard Mandela's barn.

It's a Philly who cost $1.2 million as a March 2 year old.

So obviously the intentions are high and she kind of

disappointed in her first two or three starts, but when she got

to the grass she she found out what she wants to do and she's

one, two straight now, going two turns on turf.

Including an allowance race she'll be in front and Big Pond

is the one that's probably going to have to track her and make

the first run. So can she do that?

Can she get the mile and then they stepping in with open

company a Grade 1 stakes. It's a lot to ask of her.

She's got ability, but she's going to have to move forward

again to to to hit the board in this direction.

John Lindo with us out there, Southern California, we're

talking Delmar Oaks. Race goes off tomorrow at 8:45

Eastern. God, I love these times.

Window shopping is in this race for Hector Barrios and for

Richard Mandela. Mandela having a fine summer in

graded stakes, especially with three-year olds.

Do we expect her to have a a say in the race tomorrow?

Yeah, I'm a big. Fan of of #2 window shopping as

she you know, she won the Grade 2 Summer Oaks at San Anita on

the main track last time. She's won two or four starts and

had all kinds of trouble in the two defeats.

She was third in the San Anita Oaks when she was absolutely

They shut the door on her on the far turn.

And she actually debuted last winter at the in the November

meet at Delmar. And she was in every trouble,

trouble every step of the way. She ended up splitting the field

that day, but she galloped out, you know, a furlong in front of

the field. You knew the ability was there.

She's been on the dirt. And maybe, kind of by necessity,

she actually broke her maiden on the dirt at Santa needed this

winter in a race that came off the turf.

So I think the intention was always grass for her, but you

know she won the the the maiden race by 16 lengths.

So they kept her on the grass and our dirt and got a great two

win out of her moves back to the turf this weekend.

She's a good Philly and she's tactical.

She won't be on the lead, but she can sit and and track and

he's got Hector Barrios riding who rides this turf force as

well as anybody. And only one thing you want to

know about the Delmar turf. I think going into this week

there's been 61 races on this turf force.

And three jocks have been dominating.

The leading rider Juan Hernandez has eleven wins on the grass,

you have Hector Burials with ten wins on the grass and and then

Berto recently with eleven wins. So between the three of them

they won over half the grass races at Delmar.

And if you look at just the turf routes, those three guys that

want about 72% of those route races on turf at Delmar going

into this week. So that would be the 2/5 and

nine and the nine is the only horse we haven't talked about in

that group. That's be your best.

That's a Heracio de Paz. He's shipping this horse in from

most recently being in Belmont. The horse did run a couple of

times before that at Keeneland in Big Time Company, obviously

in the Breeders Cup and then in the Appalachian in April.

I'm including this horse because Juan Hernandez is a board.

Am I crazy? No, you're not.

And the Heracio deposit. I know he struggled at the

Saratoga this summer, but this is a guy that can ship horses

around the country and run well. I chased this Philly a little

bit last year in England. I I thought she would run well

in the British Cub Juvenile Phillies.

She had some trouble, but she wasn't going to to win anyways

and I've kind of been waiting to see her get back to her best

form. You know, she was beating a neck

and the wonder again, which is a great to a Belmont.

And then last time she kind of flattened out.

Maybe she was too close to the pace in the Delmar Oaks a mile

and this is probably going to be one of her best distances you

got. Juan Hernandez is riding as well

as anybody out here. And again, she's rather

tactical. She won't be at the back of the

fact she won't be on the lead but on her best day I I think

she's a pretty good Philly and then I wouldn't throw her out.

John Lindo with us at John Lindo 60J no H and Lindo Lindo just

like it sounds on Twitter go find him there.

The race after it is a 12/5 claimer which makes me very

angry but the race before it is a very good maiden special way

for two year old Phillies. So obviously we're doing the

Philly thing out there as well is there?

I I'm sure you've looked at the card.

I don't know if you've looked at the maiden special before it too

much. We do have a second time

starter, Hope Road we with the aforementioned Hector Barrios

there at Delmar or the first He's winning, or the second

timers winning. What's happening this year?

Like. Like most of the means, it kind

of depends on the trainer. And John Saller who trains Hope

Road has has kind of knocked a little bit of a slow start.

But this Philly Hope Road ran very well in her first start.

She ran opening weekend, kind of rallied with an outside bias

that day. Got beat 1/2 length, but she was

picking up the the field when they got to the wire.

She gets a little bit more distance from 5 furlongs opening

day to 6 1/2 furlongs on Saturday.

She's, if you remember the she's out of a mayor named Marley's

Freedom who was a very, very good sprinter for trainer Bob

Baffert, and she was a Grade 1 winner.

She's by Quality Roads, so the breeding is there.

I think the longer distance is really going to help her in this

race. She's probably got to watch.

Watch out for a couple of first time starters from trainer

Richard Mandela's barn. You have #7.

Flynn's chant? The Medalia de Oro Philly that

brought $675,000. She's out of her mayor who won

her debut. She's related to two horses who

won their debuts. So there she's bred to be

precocious. A good solid work to have on

that one and also in the Races #1 Tamra from the Mandela stable

by both the oral out of beholder and if you saw the reason the

Saratoga sale beholders Yearling this year brought $4 million

from the Bob Baffer connection. This one that is a home bread

that's spent. Their farm has kept her a good

solid work pattern, but she draws the rail and that's that's

always the concern of Delmar on the dirt Mike Smith rides her.

So either way she's one to watch as we go forward throughout.

But it's an interesting race and I do think that experience

probably makes Hope Road the one to be.

Please. John Lindo, we appreciate him

joining us. How can What's the best way for

people to follow you this weekend?

Yeah, like I said. We'll be on Thurrobud, Los

Angeles, our website thurrobudla.com.

We'll be talking about all the things going on and you know,

there's been a lot of things happening out here and I don't

know if you guys have talked about it, but you know, we lost

a real icon. And Jerry Moss who who who owns

then Yana and has been based in California for so long, did so

many good things for so many people.

And we'll talk about him a little bit and obviously the

racing has been great out here and you know, we might have to

talk about rain on Sunday. That would be interesting.

So we'll see how that goes. Turn into the Saratoga out

there. I'm kidding.

Of course. He's John Window hanging out of

Delmar at John Window 60 on Twitter.

John, I'm a big fan. Thanks for jumping on, man.

Appreciate you anytime. Louis, you guys have a great

weekend. All right.

We'll see you, John. All right.