BC Preview Show from a Bar – Living the Dream

Hey, this is Mike and often with the horse racing happy hour

Louis and I recorded a very special episode.

Today. We were at Chefs, cut Pizza in

Louisville for a special live event.

We had horse racing fans out there new and old.

We did a little bit extra kind of educational piece.

This is really what our show is all about about making horse

racing approachable for the normal fan.

We got to live that mission today live and in person we hope

you enjoy the show is going to be a little bit of a different

episode. Also be sure to catch us first

and Breeders Cup. Coverage on Friday from 10 to

noon on ESPN 680. And then again on Saturday, from

11 to noon, also on ESPN, 680. We hope you have a great

Breeders Cup weekend. Thanks to our friends at Chef's

cut for having us out there, and also thanks to our sponsor with

Green Sheet racing.com. All right, good luck this

weekend. Alright, welcome to another

edition of the horse-racing. Happy arm, I can do here with

Lou your bow. And we are live at Chefs, cut

Pizza. Let's make some noise live

audience. Louis, we are like moving up in

the world. This is the second time you.

I didn't come in the derby season because I was in

California. Yep.

But you can you were out here. Yeah so good girl pretty excited

about it. I dressed up.

Everything. Not my nice hoodie.

Yeah. Well looking good feeling good,

it's good love readers Cuts could be good time.

Do you ever watch that you watch that movie trading places?

I which one looking good, feeling good, like the Eddie

Murphy and he had a burp. Yeah.

All right. Dana.

It was Dan Aykroyd. Yes, Dan Aykroyd.

Yeah. Okay.

So we are here. We're going to answer some

questions. We're going to give some tips

right now though. We're talking about the Breeders

Cup and let's talk a little bit about what the Breeders Cup.

What it is? What is the breed?

Escape Louis. Essentially, it's the World

Championships of thoroughbred racing.

It's held literally six months after the Kentucky Derby.

So those are kind of the two bookends of the, the horse

racing calendar. It's always the first full

weekend of November on Friday. They run the races for

two-year-olds which they refer to as juveniles.

And then on Saturday, the races are four horses that are three

years old and older, there are five Breeders Cup races on

Friday and 9:00 on Saturday. So you actually get nine,

straight grade 1 races, which The very highest level of racing

in the world. All in a row with the very best

horses shipping in from Europe, from Japan, from different

places. So you'll get it you'll get a

real sense of the very best horses in the world.

And actually this year you might see the greatest horse of all

time and I know a lot of people talk about Secretariat.

We're talking about a horse that's going to be in the

Secretariat type class did not win.

A did not run in the Triple Crown, did not run in the

Kentucky Derby but this horse is just blowing.

Everybody away. And that's that's flight line

that you're going to be able to see in the Breeders Cup Classic.

So it's going to be great. We will talk about who will talk

about him but I just want people to know like this is like this

is even more special than the normal Breeders Cup in my

estimation. Those of us who do this are

geeking out that we get to be at the track with flight line on

Saturday that kind of thing. So pretty excited.

That's probably the most excited been since since sunyata in 2010

at Churchill Downs. Right?

So yeah. Okay, so let's are we going to

do a little bit talking about what betting is and then talk

about the races that we're going to get into today.

To this is essentially the third page in our hand out here.

It's called the betting menu. We're going to talk about

betting Basics, the different ways you can bet on horses and

then we'll get into some of the races in detail, some basic

things, you can look for in any race and they will compose some

tickets. Try to get value from shorter,

priced horses, and that I'll answer any of those questions

that you might have. All right, so the real quick,

the ABCs of betting. What you've got to look forward

to the basic bets are the win place and show.

And the the cool thing about horse racing is that you're not

betting against, like, no matter what kalin's got to make their

money. Okay.

So they do this thing called a take out.

They're going to take money out, and then there's a pool of money

and you're basically betting to get your share of that pool.

The money, you're betting against all the other

horseplayers, not against the track.

It's not like casino gambling in.

Way. So we have win place and show

those are the basic bets. That's a great way.

That's that's where people who do this for a living kind of

live. They live there and they live in

playing these multi-race sequences the Exotic bets

picking the exact of the trifecta superfecta, which can

be a lot of fun. Especially like that darn

superfecta which you can play for horses.

You Can Box them 4240. And that actually paid.

What did it pay a Keeneland a couple weeks ago?

Like, seventy one thousand dollars or something that and

you on a 202 like a 10-cent bet? That's what that could pay, but

those are Paradigm, so it. Exactly.

As you pick the first two horses in order Trifecta, you've picked

the first three horses in order and then a super.

It's the first four horses in order.

All right, so then and then finally, we have those

multi-race Wagers, The Daily Doubles, which means you're

picking two races in a row, the pick three, the pick Pick five

and ultimately the pick six. And so if you listen to ESPN

radio, listen in the morning, you've heard tree Drew döner,

collect all this money, and try to get this pick six ticket,

that they're going to lose and all that kind of stuff.

So don't bet with Mark Blankenbaker.

That's all I'm gonna say. Stay away from that right there.

All right, I agree with you. Yeah.

Stay away from our klickovic, right?

And it's really the pick-6 sequence in this kind of racing.

Louis is so tough because the fields are so deep.

I mean, we, Have some unbelievable horses that we're

going to talk about today that are going to go off at 12:50 or

better. Yeah.

So on on the back page, I have a long shot, I like in every

single Breeders Cup Race at least half of those horses are

15 to 1 or longer odds. So 12:45 12:40, that kind of

thing. And I think their horses that

have legitimate shots to win all those races.

But a lots of times in normal race stays like, if you want to

Churchill Downs, you saw horses 1501 that horse has won a race

or it's at a lower class, but you're still talking about a lot

of grade 1, great to win. There's that are on that list.

Oh, no question. Yes, unbelievable.

All right. So, let's talk real quick.

The we're going to cover two races on Friday, we're going to

talk brace six, which is the juvenile chatter Sprint, race 9,

which is the juvenile that is the first major Derby prep.

This is where the last Derby winner to win.

The Breeders Cup. Juvenile was justify, but

usually, you'll see a horse when the horse that wins.

The Breeders Cup juvenile will be like the Derby favorite.

The first derby favor of the year.

And then on Saturday we're going to talk about the Breeders Cup

Sprint. The Breeders Cup mile.

The distaff which is always one of our favorite races, the

Breeders Cup Turf. And then finally, the Breeders

Cup Classic, that's essentially the late pick five, the all

Stakes Pick 5, that will happen at Keeneland on that day.

That's about a 15% take out. So, that's a very playable bet.

All right. Any questions so far, we got any

questions from our audience at all.

All right, if you do just you know let us know.

And like I said, we want to keep this Relations possible.

Let's start with Friday with Race Six.

This is the Breeders Cup juvenile Turf, Sprint.

And is a grade one, a million dollars on the line.

Now, Lily. This is where I think this is.

We talked a lot about horses. Going one, turn or two turns,

the turf races you want to you especially the longer distance

Turf races. You want to pay attention to the

European horses but in the Sprints, it's a little different

because over in Europe they run in a straight line.

And this is the first time, a lot of these horses will ever be

making a turn and so that kind of stuff really can impact a

race. And so, usually in the turf,

Sprint's you have the American horses have a really good shot.

However, we know that there's one European horse that

everybody does like a lot and that is the Platinum Queen who's

going off at 1:53. But there's some good American

horses in your two little. Yeah, do European horse is

actually ever won this race and Trader.

Wesley, ward has the to course In here.

Love, Reigns love Reigns. Thank you.

And what's interesting about this horses?

They thought enough of this horse to take it, you're going

to close to be so we're getting more feedback there.

So it literally standing just listen just, you know, just keep

your distance. He's trying to add to the people

here. All right.

Just stay over there. Maybe your criticisms to stay

over there, this one. Yeah.

How about this? All right, so the love Reigns is

in this race. The queen is Queen is yes.

So a 6-1 3-6 Rod Race Six. Right now that Breeders Cup

juvenile serfs print, this is a cool thing to you'll see, both

male and female horses in this race.

Because at this point in their Development, A lot of times the

female horses are right alongside the males.

And so in this case, I do think the to love Reigns end up with

ends up, winning here. As I said, no European horse has

ever won this race. Love Reigns, has won two races

and lost won the two races that she won was going over a The one

time she lost was in England where there was no turn she you

who watch her run and she keeps looking to her left to see when

to turn. So instead of kicking it in, as

hard as she could, for all five furlongs over there, she ended

up finishing issue forth in that race over there, Mike.

We pulled up. Sorry, I forgot your good,

something elements. So even with I read Ortiz,

taking the trip over with Wesley ward.

He has won this race before. So I think the two is very much

a most likely winner here. We're going to try to go against

the favorite and it's for the reasons that we've already

talked about. No, you're being a horse.

Has ever won this race. All of the major contenders from

Europe that are shipping in for this race.

Have never gone around a turn. They've only run straight line

races and so we're going to trust that that inexperience is

going to. It's not going to work for them.

We're going to try The American horses here.

But if you wanted a more of a spread in your tickets here it's

27, 11 12 and 5 for me. So even though one of Reigns is

a European horse, it has come to American already race.

In America, has already done. The turn is used to it so too

and again you'll see the trainer there is Wesley, Ward Wesley War

typically And these two year old races.

Wesley, Ward is a good trainer named to know.

He does very well with to your two year olds especially on the

turf and very successfully at Keeneland as well wear these

races will be helped. All right.

Anything else to add on the six? I don't.

All right then we're going to move on to the Breeders Cup

juvenile. This is the main event of the

afternoon on Friday. This is race 9.

It is the FanDuel Breeders Cup. Juvenile presented by the

Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance, that's a great 12 million

dollars on the line here. Doing and we've got a horse here

who has the potential making of another Superstar.

The one thing that I don't like about Friday, lots of times.

We see this is kind of the equivalent of like the kid who

matured more than everybody else in middle school, and was the

really good athlete. And then everybody caught up to

him later on, you know, when we got to high school and college

and so lots of times, we don't see these horses really have the

careers that we think they're going to have.

We had the exteriors that their parents held a back of yours.

Yeah, would be big in school, you just Seventh grader.

You know, shaving his beard. Yeah.

Right. Yeah.

So we have a horse here Louis though, that could be an

absolute Superstar. Yeah.

So a name that many people will know, even if you don't follow

horse-racing closely Bob baffert trains, Cave Rock, who's the

three in this race undefeated two-year-old, the only horse in

the field with what's called a 100 plus Beyer speed figures a

figure to measure how fast horses compete in Races by a man

named Andy buyer. And the hundred speed figure is

a very good indicator of a horse that's wrong.

A very, very good race. In this case of Cave, Rock runs

his race. He's going to win, simply put

it's it's that simple. He's the best horse in this

race. I do think there's another horse

who can win here in the in the for Forte because he just won at

Keeneland over this course. So going to turns at Keeneland

at this distance, a really, really good jockey trainer combo

and I should just have these thoughts.

This is pleasure is pleasure. Yes yeah.

And so you get pleasure and you get and you get I read Ortiz,

the two of them together, hit it, 27 percent overall so they

went over a quarter of their races together.

Anything over 20% in horse racing is is exceptional and so

27% is even more exceptional because it's a another 33

degrees. 27 percent is more than 20 know because it's really

twice of its exceptional. I mean, exceptional exceptional

so the two of them together a horse that I really like that is

coming out of the Grade 1 champagne is verifying rent

second. I'm going to trust that.

That was because of the conditions, that's the 5 horse

here man. If you get 10 to 1 on that,

horse on race day between Brad Cox.

Joel Rosario, the two of them hitting it.

An unbelievable 30% together, 24/7 percent just to Keeneland

recently. If you can get that combination,

Brad Cox, very good with two year olds, he hits a 25% with

them and then blazing sevens is the six in this race.

Flavia Pratt Chad Brown, the two of them hitting together at 30%

29% at the most recent, Keeneland, Really really, really

good names that people will know for sure coming out of that

champagne as well. They'll sloppy conditions at

Aqueduct. I don't hold against any horse.

I think that that's already a deep track when it's sloppy in

New York certain horses. Like it's certain horses.

Don't my senses. He didn't like that.

That's a, this is how old I am. I've been doing this long enough

that that's a son of good magic. That's right.

That was the first derby I covered.

So, there you go. And, and so that's, I would lean

on the three here. If you wanted to have a shorter

ticket, I think he's the most likely winner.

On this day on this card but if you wanted to go chase some

value, I would lean on verifying fuck.

So there's a couple ways you can pet the three here.

Just so for people to understand, if you put a

straight win bed on the three right now, it's four to five,

right? So I have to bet $5 to make for,

which is not awesome. It's a risky, five dollars.

You're actually might even be better off.

Just put in $5 to show instead of win in the the payout might

not be that much different. And you could have the horse

finish first, second, or third in that case, the other way you

I can do it though. Is if you feel really good that

cave, rock is going to win. This is where you can look at an

Exacta, maybe an exact a wheel where you have Cave, Rock coming

in first and you pick a couple horses to come in second

especially if you think that there could be a longer shot

that hits the board especially for things like a horse like

verifying just got to run his race at 12:50.

He comes in second place you might get a nice 12:15.

The one kind of payout on so you could literally do a $1 Exacta

box wheel where you take the three horse and everyone else to

come and second it's a nine dollar bet.

If you have Of decent you know shot longer shot come in, you

should get a decent pay out. By the way, I have done a poor

job here. All of my long shots and every

single Breeders Cup racer on the back here.

And so I want to go back to the previous race.

I apologize, Race Six Tyler's tribe is in this race, and this

is one of those horses that if you don't follow horse racing

every week, like the nerd that I am, you would never have heard

of this horse, because he's running in Iowa at Prairie

Meadows, but he might be the fastest two-year-old in the

country. He's been running on dirt at

Prairie Meadows, so he's trying Turf for the first time.

And I'll be honest, I don't know who Timothy Martin is the

trainer. He's really just an Iowa guy.

So this is the kind of horse though at 12:45 that if he likes

the turf look out, you can get a huge price on him.

He's the kind of horse that I would use in that exact to play

may be right underneath the to. Yeah, chef.

Yep. Running horse auditor.

Yep. Try them on Turf.

Yep. They're not used to the surface.

Sure. So one of the things with Tyler

is that they brought that horse to Keeneland at the beginning of

October and he's been training on the Keeneland Turf.

What's the real quick just so our listeners.

So question was the dirt to Turf transition?

The footing feels different for the horses is essentially your

you're concerned with Tyler's tribe.

I think that's absolutely reasonable.

My only take on him is they've been working him on the turf and

if he happens to like it, if he breaks, well, he breaks

unbelievably well. So he's going to be ahead of the

European horses to start this race so that puts him ahead of a

significant-looking. Out of this field.

And so for me at 12:45, that's the kind of horse on playing

when place, right? Because if he hits even in

second place, he's probably on a two dollar bet he's played, he's

gonna pay 25 bucks and that's the kind of bet that can carry

you throughout the day. Because if you can figure those

things up at 12:48 in second place on a day, like juvenile

day, that's absolutely possible. It's actually another like All

Turf is not created equal, right?

So like the turf in California at Del Mar is going to be almost

like running. On the green of a golf course

in. That's a real hard and Europe,

it's going to be a deeper softer Turf.

It's going to be wetter and so because we're in Keeneland it

might favor European horses more than like if we were in

California. So does that make sense?

Okay. All right, by the way, a horse

that I love at a super long price.

On this card is in the last race that day Race. 10 web Slinger is

the 10 webslinger Juanita one in this race recently?

Won a one-mile race at Monmouth Park in Now, now now and that to

me is, if you say meow, meow meow, I might have, it has been

at Keeneland has been training on the Keeneland course very

well. The numbers look really, really

good 12:40, it's because of the combination.

Mark hasse find trainer. Dylan Davis though is probably

the seventh or eighth best writer in New York.

But if that horse gets his trip and runs his race, which will

involve closing and there are plenty of horses in this field

because their two year olds who are going to go out front,

they're going to run out as hard as they can.

I love a two-year-old with a little bit of restraint and

that's why. I think it's 12:40 webslinger.

Here is an excellent out. You're not unlike any list or

anything like that, right? Parties were to make sure you

like you can get you can stay like 300 yards away from the

school. You're like a two-year-old with

a little restraint. Never mind people left for the

record. People left.

Okay, don't have a sense race seven, we're going to go onto

re7 on Saturday night. This is where we get the older

horses that this is where you start to see the champion form,

really take and we have some incredible fields in the

Breeders Cup. And in this Breeders Cup Sprint,

which is a grade one, six, furlongs two million dollar race

here. We're going to get a heavy

favorite in Jackie's, Warrior, who A heavy favorite last year,

in the Breeders Cup in was in, was very disappointed in how he

ran. There is a, there's a

double-digit tend to one horse here.

That blue and I both love. And will you tell them a little

bit about American theorem? Yeah, America, theorem does run

largely on the west coast. They did bring him in to run a

Turfway Park to try to pick off the Kentucky club.

Classic in April, didn't like the synthetic surface up their

Turf way by the way, stop by Turfway today on my way back

from picking up our producer Zach from the airport at

Cincinnati looks terrific. Fuck the new building looks

incredible. So that's, that's a great great

opportunity for us here at Kentucky during the winter.

But, you know, last two times out rental 104 and a 1-1 speed

figure. Generally speaking to win, the

Breeders Cup Sprint, you got to run about a 107 108 Keeneland.

Turns this track into a parking lot for this Saturday.

It's very thin, it's very fast. It's a horse like American

theorem if he's running well at sea level at Del Mar, you have

to remember that courses right on the ocean.

So it's going to Really humid. It's going to have all of that,

you know, all of this salt it's going to have all of that, you

know, sort of sand Enos to it. The Keeneland surface is going

to be a lot cleaner for him at 12:50 to bring it in jail, Bravo

they're flying him in essentially for this race.

And so I love that they're doing that.

And so if he can keep that that figure, you know, if you look at

his last race, he tried to go seven for a long.

So seven days of a mile, it didn't work before that.

He went at six, furlongs highest speed figure of his life that

was in July the end of July. So if he can get back to that

form, he's been training at Santa Anita.

If he can get back to that form, then he can absolutely win this

race. Okay, we mentioned a little bit

about the nine horse. Jackie's Warrior, who will be a

heavy favorite in this race? Jackie's worry lost this race

last year to Aloha West, who's also coming back in this race.

I don't think either one of us really like the loja West in

this spot. It would he would have to

replicate last year, almost exactly.

And that's going to be hard to get that same traffic in.

Jackie's Warriors. Been known to have a hiccup in a

race. However, It happened the last

time that this horse ran and so we actually it's it's up to me

were Jackie's Warrior. It's not even a hiccup because

he's a six Furlong horse. He's one for five at the

distance last time. He tried seven for a long and he

gets caught in the last eighth of a mile.

So to me actually he just needs to get to the wire.

He's one of those kinds of horses.

He and Joel Rosario have been together almost his entire

career Steve asthma since a local trainer.

He's the all-time winningest trainer in North American.

Has Mosin. No one better at six.

Furlongs probably in the world on dirt than Steve asmussen.

And so my hope is is that actually if you wanted to play

this late sequence, this might be one of those spots that you

go real thin, but if you're playing it race to race and

you're trying to hit a win better, you try to hit something

like that. I do think American theorem is

in that group. I do have Kumari as the

second-best here. Just based on those speed

figures. The last two times out.

Interesting to note who wrote him the last three times.

Joelle Rosario, Joel Rosario is riding Jackie's Warrior so he

jumped off this horse to ride, jakey's Warrior.

Sometimes the giveaways are real obvious in the championship

races that one to me is a very, very big giveaway.

And then I had America theorem of the third spot.

Elite power has run back-to-back really great races has won four

in a row coming in. And so you get I read Ortiz

there, I read on these Championship days is as good as

anyone in the world on Breeders Cup days.

So, 9 2, 4 6, is the order for me.

I think you either use, Jackie's Warrior, and you move on, or you

try to get a price with someone like American theorem.

And, again, Jackie's Warrior has run 17 races in his lifetime.

Has won 12 of them and hit the board 15 times out of 17, pretty

good record right there. All right, we're going to move

on to the FanDuel Breeders Cup mile.

This is a Turf race. It is again obviously, it's a

one mile on the turf. Two million dollars is the purse

here. Louis who do you like here?

This is one of those spots where you might get to see a superstar

performance and modern games is in this race.

He's the 4 horse 345 lifetime at the distance with two Only runs

in super high level classic races.

All he does is run a group ones or grade ones, the top top

level. He's coming in off of a short

loss in the Queen, Elizabeth the second Stakes a tasket one of

the very highest level places for him to win.

What's interesting to me is the last two times he's run in.

North America, he's one and those are left-handed turn

races. So when you're reading the form,

you have to notice which way the horses are turning or not

turning last time out, he ran a mile in a straight line.

Didn't win the race before that. He's in Toronto at Woodbine he

gets to do a 1 turn mile at Woodbine and it was Surgical.

And I mean surgical, he just got to the top of stretch, just

started weaving through traffic, picking off horses.

He was never not winning that race.

If he can get back to that form where he gets to go left-handed,

I think that's his strong lead and I think he'll be much better

here, I think he's one of the more likely winners of the day.

The interesting part of this race is if you told me one of

about 900, Horse has won this race, I wouldn't be surprised

there's that many good milers in this race.

It's frankly if not the most interesting race we're going to

see from a from a competition standpoint this weekend.

It's top two or three because we're going to talk about the

distaff in a minute and I think it's right there.

Kinross is in this race. The 13, the reason I like

Kinross is because he reminds me very much of last year's winner.

The horse namespace Blues, who won out of Delmar had never gone

to turns Had been a seven for a long specialist.

That's what we get with. Kinross really, really good at

seven. Furlongs can the horse stretch

out to a mile? My sense is absolutely at 922.

The 13 is really, really good value.

Domestic spending is in this race and is the absolute wild

card here. The horse has not run since

August of 2021. Ran in the last Arlington

million. Just take it easy Park.

Yeah, he's been showing up killing the group.

To me this horse is absolutely the wild card.

Now, the good news is trainer. Chad Brown brings horses back

off this kind of layoffs at 28%, so he knows how much time to

give horses off and also, which spots to put them in.

I do not think he puts his horse in this race if he doesn't think

he has a chance, I think he absolutely does.

Then the six horse in here is Ivar this.

Horse has won at Keeneland at this distance. 104 speed figure

in this race, actually. One of the one of the longer

shots. I've given out on this.

Yeah, it's right in the anchors, Mark Grace.

And so on, he's one of them, I'll really, really impressive.

If he, it was the Shadwell, Turk my excuse me.

If he can get back to that form, if he can recreate that form for

one day, he can absolutely went 12:45 on that horse.

That's a delicious number. My official long shot in this

race. For this one was aybar the six

and so if you wanted a longer shot of 12:45 type horse.

Look for Javier Castellano. Look for Apollo Lobo.

The team up here on Ivar, there are two for two together.

This year, the ten horse order of Australia is actually a horse

that's won this race before. And again, I don't think we like

him here in this spot, but it is a horse that has won this race

before. One horse, that Louis did not

mention who's coming off a couple wins as 1/3 of her last

for three of his. Last four is Annapolis the 11 I

read Ortiz on the turf. Yes, please.

Just my CI rat into one and a horse has good as Annapolis.

I'm going to take a bet there and one of the thing just real

quick. Let me mention the for the

modern games being his favor. Here we mentioned, was Lee Ward

with the two-year-olds Charles Appleby is the European trainer

that if you see his name and a Turf race on Saturday?

You want to pay special attention so that literally in

his last 25 stakes races in the United States, he's won 13 of

them. 13 for twenty five, fifty, two percent.

Okay, so that is that's the kind of training.

They were talking about with Charlie.

Appleby flying in Bill Buick to ride.

This horse is not an accident. This bill's been on him in every

race that he's ever won. By the way, this horse did win,

modern games won this race. Last year order of Australia won

this race, two years ago. Okay, so now we are moving onto

a race that is always one of our favorites.

And so we talked about, if you want to be a fan of horse

racing, you need a fall in love with the Lease because the

Phillies tend to race a little bit longer than the than the

male horses. We know the Kentucky Derby

winner typically runs a couple more races and then goes to the

study, we never see that horse race again.

This feel in the Breeders Cup distaff, which is a mile in

Mountain, 82 million dollar. Purse is so deep that secret

oath who won the Kentucky Oaks and 2021 is 12:45.

That's the horse that won. The Kentucky Oaks last year is

12:45. That's how good this field is,

and, and the Lodi. I'm just going to turn it over

to you because this guy right here, is incredible when it

comes to picking the Phillies on the horses side.

Elise, yeah, I love Kristin your wife.

Wow, you just, I was gonna say, let's burn how lovely wife is

laughing because you're laughing at my wife, not to me.

So I don't know why anything, I mean they're hurt Is it right

here? I don't know what you're doing.

All right. So in the distaff man, so for a

couple years now I've done a road to the Oaks rankings.

Everyone does a derby one. I think the Oaks is just as

interesting was doing it for the l.a. times for a while, did for

the answers for little bit and and so Mallet.

That was the horse that put me on the map as a as a in the LA

Times essentially. And so she won the Oaks last

year. She's come back this year, she's

one or last two races against many of the same horses that are

in this field. She's in the one hole doesn't

bother me at all because she's going to run what we call.

Call a my gosh, she's going to be right off the page, she's

going to be on the hip of the leader essentially.

And so, she's able to switch up her style, she can run a little

bit further, back of the pack. She can be near the front of she

needs to, you know, previously, frankly in the tempted in

November of 2000, she got off on stayed out front, so she needs

to do that, she can do that as well.

I think she's the most likely winner here.

The nine to five favorite is nest and she's a three year old

and she ran in some huge races this year, one of which you may

have heard of called the Belmont Stakes and Finished second

against the boys. So this is legit horse.

She has since come back and won her last three races.

All two of them grade ones at Saratoga, and then she came back

at aqueduct in the, the remove, the meat from Belmont to

Aqueduct right now division. She won again by a measly 9, and

3/4 length. Again, stuff gets older horses

in the beldam and so I to me, I get why people are putting her

925, but I think if they both have their best day, I'll take

my with that over nest. In this case, that's the one

horse. Course I think that with Mallet

that you just get a little bit older stronger horse obviously

Nest capable of running with the boys.

Nothing wrong with what she's been doing after that, I think

you can get some interesting prices.

So super dope. Is that horse that won?

The Kentucky Oaks here at Churchill Downs in 2022, or 21,

scuse me. Took a long layoff after that

and came back in. Excuse me, came back right back

after that and ran in the Preakness last year.

They're not this year. When we doing Yeah, she ran this

year. There she is.

Me, yeah, secret old one. The one of the Oaks this year,

came back ran in the Preakness. So Nest, ran in the Oaks, and

then ran in the Belmont. So, we getting these horses that

are feeling pretty comfortable against the boys, which is,

which is fun. Okay, background on those, other

races brand s behind Nest by many links and so I think she's

less likely of a winner here and then you get the seven search

results who's been right there the last couple times out wins

the great three, Molly Pitcher at Monmouth Park as the favorite

comes back runs at Saratoga in late August finishes.

Literally half a length behind Mallet that who I think is the

winner of this race. So maybe its search results at

922 that we can lean on for a little bit more value here.

In this one, my long shot in this race.

On the official pics here is blue striped the to and the

reason I believe that she's 20 21 and she's coming out of a

really good wind in the Hirsch out at Del Mar going to turns in

what was frankly, very fast starting race and I think

there's a chance of the distaff starts really.

Quickly as well. 23 Flat for the first quarter 46, and for so sub

47. I'd goes to the kinds of

numbers. We're going to see the classic

later, so she can, if she can withstand those and be within

two lengths of the lead, she can hang out with anybody so far as

I'm concerned. It's, so that's the kind of

horse if she runs her race. If it falls apart in front of

her of a couple horses, go out and they're going way too fast.

She's the kind of horse tactical speed is what we call it able to

make her move when she wants to when when she's asked by Hector

berlioz. I think it's funny to one.

That's the kind of horse if the race falls apart, could be your

lunch. So, just to kind of recap, we

have eight horses in this race. Louis and I both would not be

surprised if seven of these horses win this race.

There's only wake at midnight is probably not a Breeders Cup

winner. Probably not right.

But other than that, I think that all these horses are very

much capable and we're researching that horse a little

bit which means you should definitely bet it because we say

it's not going to win. I think even in a field that's

going to be a forty fifty to one question.

It's going to be huge. Yeah.

But the other Them horses. You can make a case for every

single one of them. All right, we're going to move

on to the Longines Breeders Cup Turf with grade 1.

This is a four million dollar race.

It's a mile and a half on the turf Louis real quick before we

get in this race. One of the interesting things

about Keeneland is they actually have to finish lines.

You want to talk about that a little bit?

I don't okay, cuz I hate it. Yeah, I hate it to you but they

do. They actually have to finish

line so that they can move the Starting Gate and just make sure

they have better stretch runs. It's not as big of a track as

Churchill switch. On the top side, what launched

today okay. Whatever long jeans.

But this is, we're talking less. It's Versailles.

Not Versailles. Okay, that's longinus I never

knew that. There you go.

I've learned something. The guy from Austin, Texas had

to come. Give me some sort of lesson

here. All right.

Louie, who do we like here in this Mana?

You love them on a half race. We're little.

We thought we were going to see a superstar in this race ended

up not coming over. Yep, he opens up this field

opens up this field. It just incredibly feel a little

bit and so I've got Rebels romance on top here.

The five, Charlie Appleby again, first time.

He races a horse in North America, they only went at 53%

and so Horses coming over off of four wins.

The only knock on this horse. Would be that.

It's been running in Germany rather than in Ireland, or in

England. And so if you wanted to put the

horse down for those reasons, you could, but it has been

running in major grade one company over there.

As I mentioned, Charlie Appleby 53%.

With first-timers in North. America, may have more like

goddesses in this race. And this is the kind of race

where the girls are real competitive.

If they know how to run. And so, she's the to, in this

race 1:51, Joel Rosario, build, mot five times, she's running.

Distance and five times, she's one.

So she seems to be a real specialist at this distance.

The other good news, she's 24 to Keeneland lifetime.

So she seems to like the course as well.

Nine wins in 12 lifetime starts. That is a that is that's awesome

more. Importantly, five and five five

or five of the distance right over the distance with me.

Yeah. Yeah.

What's up John? She was bred here in Kentucky at

Calumet. She's an English.

She's a daughter of English Channel.

The horses in Germany. So to give you an example, it's

a good question, actually. Rebels romance was bred in

Ireland and he's a son of a major Turf sire there to do

boughey. Scuse me, Dubai.

We I was Dubai. We do Bow, we do Bali.

That's another Charles Appleby. What is that nation's pride?

Is also in this race. Another Charlie Appleby.

As you can see, we're getting a trend here.

Bill Buick aboard for this one. This horse is actually been

running in the United States. In restricted company with other

three year olds, he's the best three-year-old at the distance

142 lifetime going. This long 446, this year has

picked off races, both at Saratoga.

And at at Aqueduct. What I like about this horse is

a lot of European horses and Mike mentioned it come over and

they're used to softer ground. This horse has won twice.

Going over firm go in the United States.

So used to the feel of an American Turf course.

I like that a lot. 1:53 is an obvious that someone agrees to

meet their Mischief is In, I don't know if people saw this

horse, he won the Saudi couple, couple of knots Audi cup, he

won, the Judgment International. And then before the where is it?

The doodoo doodoo by classic. That's what it was.

And so this is a horse, it did. When the side a couple of my

talk about, you want a 20 million dollar race in Saudi

Arabia, on dirt and he's at, er, Force.

Okay, so 6417 Lifetime on the turf, he's won at the distance

before. He's just he's so capable.

If you look at the time form from overseas, he's just so

capable of running a Race. He's been in massive company

before random ran behind a horse named by Eid.

Who did not make the trip for this.

Race would be a flight line type favorite in this race.

Had he made the trip ran second behind him in a race this year

so I'm hoping that he can get some of that asket form back and

run. Well here.

And then the ten Red Knight is my long shot here 12:40 on the

10 in this race. Red Knight 4411, at the distance

has won twice this year. Both of them at a mile and a

half and so if you're looking for unbelievable value red

night, I saw win at a mile and a half at Kentucky Downs.

So the racetrack right next to the Tennessee Border here.

Horses that have one it Kentucky Downs, have come back and run

very well at Keeneland on the turf course this year.

So I'm going to be placed in five and five when bet place bet

on Red Knight because I think he's got a really serious chance

to if he doesn't win at least be right there, at the end of the

race has been running really, really well since the move to

the mic, maker Barn bike maker and excellent Turf trainer.

And I think that's What's what's good for him?

So I went 5 2 7 11 and 10. I'm not sure that there's not

more horses you could include here, but for purposes of what

we're doing here tonight, that's who will mention all right.

Then it all comes down to the mama quarter, the Breeders Cup

Classic tune in NBC 540, you will not want to miss this

because you're going to see something historic one way or

the other. That's right, you're going to

see an all-time performance this horse Flightline, who is the

for, in this race ran in the Pacific classic literally just

blew the field away and just a few all Kentucky Derby fans

here, right? You know, we all are here, we

love that sport. How many horses have run?

A monic order, the Kentucky Derby and under two minutes.

Do do do one. There's actually three, and the

three of them are Secretariat Monaco's.

And then who came in second to Secretariat, was it?

I can't believe I'm blanking on this.

Northern dancer ran a flat to but did someone run secretary

the second place horse the Secretariat years Ray and stuff

to minute. Mile by the way Secretariat's

time was a minute. 59 point for this horse ran a minute 59 1 and

the jockey never know. Rode him.

No whip, no do incur, never sat down mile and a quarter faster

than I could have been on this horse and it would have ran a

sub 2 minute mile you ready for this?

You ready for this? Bob baffert said his horse who

ran second which was Country Grammar thought he won the race

because the 9020 and a quarter length or ahead of him.

He they walked him back and he was like all right let's go in

the Winner's Circle and they walked him off and he was like

what are we doing? He lost by 19.

Likes of a horse and we were talking about speed figures

being over 100 knots F. This Speed figure in this race

was 126 and they jockey never wrote them.

I mean that is just telling you what kind of a superstar kind of

horse that we're going to see. So the story is going to be this

horse goes out and wins. It can overcome, it's already

overcome a bad start and then bet handicap and it could win if

this horse somehow loses. I'm going to guess at something

really bad happened that we don't want to talk about the Hat

happened priest of classic a couple of years ago.

That's right but that you are going See a historic

performance, one way or the other.

I think the other thing that matters in the classic is who's

going to run right behind him. And there's a horse named

Olympiad, the seven in this race who I think has the best

long-term form. And if he runs his race will not

get caught up in an early speed. Dual will not make the kinds of

mistakes that some horses will make.

In this company. He's run this year seven times,

he has won six of those races. All six of those races.

He has a buyer speed figure over 100.

So he's running massive races. Okay, did he?

Yeah, we don't want you. And so the one time he lost was

at, Saratoga, it was wet every time these one on dry dirt, he's

won. So if we get dry conditions at

Keeneland on Saturday, which I anticipate by the classic, he'll

be good to go. So, at 12:50, that's a horse to

look for in second or third spot.

If you're playing those Exotics in this race, okay.

We also have a couple, the Derby winners in this race Rich,

strike it. Who is the longest shot on the

board? All is still raising for

respect, right, Louis. I mean if he hits the board

here, it's huge look If this race gets out of control upfront

life is good goes real fast. If you know, happy saver decides

that he's just going to go be the speed.

And this by the way, happy saber maybe a scratch this is just

coming out. Hasn't officially been scratched

yet but has a cracked both. We might see, we might see a

scratch on headaches even if a life is good, a hot rod Charlie.

They're going to try to duel for the front.

Those horses like to be out front, I am not saying that rich

strike is going to win this race because he isn't going to, but

it doesn't mean he can't get a nice check here, right?

It doesn't mean he can't pick up a Boxer and a third in this

race. And so look for I mean if you

wanted to use a longer longer shot your Trifecta, I think Rich

strike is an absolute player. I mean, quite honestly that was

I think that's what they're going to do.

I think they're gonna drop them to the back of the field and

then they're just going to see how it goes.

And and I'll tell you they chose this over running in the Clark

handicap which is at the end of the month here in Churchill

Downs at Churchill Downs, where that horse is pretty hard to

beat. He's really, really, really

great at Churchill Downs. All of his wins are there and so

obviously they think there's something here about the way the

race is going to set up that he could pick off a check but

again, eight horse field, maybe a seven horse field.

Not surprised if any of these seven horses actually hit the

board, there should be only one winner and so this is where you

might get into your exotic place.

Try to play a an Exacta or a trifecta.

Knowing that the you're going to have the four horse in the win.

I'll be honest, this is the race because we're going to be at

Keeneland, I'm just going to get the 2 dollar with me to take us

to have it by it. Frame line and never turn it in.

Ya. How about to daughter win

tickets to shade? Say it kind of like I was here.

Yep. So yeah, we did the same thing

when authentic won the Derby because that was just the

September Derby and we just bought two daughter win tickets

and everybody's so excited. We have over there.

Yeah, the souvenir, right? So by the way, if you wanted to

bet connections life is good, Todd Pletcher, I read Ortiz.

Excellent connections to the to their table Bob, baffert

shipping in a three year old to run in this race.

That's not an accident. He wouldn't bring this horse.

If he didn't think he wasn't going to pick off a check.

So look for table. Ava who hasn't run his best race

yet. Will be clear about that.

I think he's improving I think he'll be really good for year

old. There's a chance that he jumps

up get some of the money here. Hot rod Charlie is a weird horse

run 18 times he's hit the board, 14 of them.

That's a horse that just for some reason he's gritty.

I think that's the best way to last time.

I'm pretty just great, but tends to run third second, that kind

of number. So look for the five hot rod

Charlie to be part of it as well.

Epicenter who's probably the best consistent three-year-old

this year did. When the Ivers.

And the Jim Dandy this year at Saratoga.

If he runs his race, should be part of the equation as well.

But again, I just like Olympiad a little bit better here, the

seven because I think that he's a little bit more experience

that I think he's the kind of horse that won't be overwhelmed

by whatever Pace Sarah works out.

Yeah, the one thing about Hot Rod, Charlie's only ran at

Keeneland one other time and that was in the two-year-old in

the Breeders Cup. Juvenile, two years ago he was

like 96 21 and ran a huge race, just a huge race and I did I had

him only Bet to win. I did not have them across the

board. Like, I normally would and you

know, not that we still talk came in second but hot rod.

Charlie does like this track and he likes to be up front and he

likes to run up from the pack. So a definitely a horse.

I would think that would hit the board.

Yeah, so thanks for coming out tonight.

That's gonna be doing any other questions or anything.

Any questions before we get to that, I'll go through some of

these sequences off, are with you guys.

Just so everyone knows. I'll have sequences in both

Friday and Saturday is Green Sheet, Green Sheet, racing Dot.

You can also pick those up at your local store depending on

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track to watch the races this weekend, you can do that as well

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