BC25 Euro Invaders w/ James Welsh

All right, welcome in our special British Isles edition of

the Horse Racing Happy Hour every year with our friend James

Welsh from jwracing.com. Our friend over there always

beating the bookies. He has a keen interest in

American dirt racing as well. But James, man, happy Sunday to

you. Happy Sunday before Breeders'

Cup. We need to get you back over

here for one of these freaking things, James.

And but happy Sunday. I always enjoy this conversation

and I've told people over the years, James, I think I've got

more winners out of this conversation every year than I

do out of others because I just, I, I lean on a euro for those

euro shippers. And so I appreciate you very

much. How are you?

Buddy, Yeah. No, thank you.

Good. Thank you.

Yeah. Oh, good.

Move forward to it, Yeah. All right, So I think some

opportunities for sure with some shippers and and you know James,

one of the things about the turf races within the Breeders Cup

schedule that really got upended last year was we saw especially

on Friday, but then again repeated on Saturday in the

Sprint division, we saw really good shows from the EUR.

And the first race you and I are gonna talk about is that Turf

Sprint on Friday, which is the British Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint

here. 1,000,000 bucks on the line, only a 5 furlong course at

Del Mar, James. And I remember going into the

races last year thinking, well, you better get out of the gates

there, Euro, so you're going to be in a lot of trouble.

And then they did. So it was an interesting kind of

juxtaposition there. Obviously, the trainers working

with their horses, training them to be better at that.

In this group, we're going to have a couple of really good

runners. True love is in this group.

Is true love better sprinting or going a mile do you think?

It's it's a great question. The space distance is probably a

long Sprint, 6 furlongs out to 7 furlongs because they're not

sure I'll get the mile. I would have preferred that

going in the race. We'll talk about precise up to a

mile. I think that would probably suit

it more around this track. But FIFA longs, it's such a

class horse. It's a big, big, strong filly.

She's got a huge advantage at the moment, but being that big,

will that suit her going around those sharp two turns around one

turn? Sorry.

So it might be, although she's betting the horse twice.

Havana, Anna Joseph O'Brien Joseph O'Brien's horse that

could be more suited to good stepping back to the five

furlongs and around that track. But true love certainly has been

that horse twice comfortably and it's certainly without without

the the best horse for sending over.

And it's probably probably similar prices at the moment,

probably 3:00 to 1:00 here in the UK.

And I think it'll probably be around about that in the morning

line. There's a couple of quite strong

American contenders. Will I be playing it as a one

bet? No, I would be I'd be probably

the odds. Havana Anna is about 81.

That might be that might be more the the if I was going for a a

bet, we certainly would include it in all your exotics.

There's one or two other ones and I quite like the the the

American horse, you know, the lineal who come on and come over

ran third date Royal Ascot. It's won its last two races,

hits 8 to one in the UK market. I think it'll probably be a bit

shorter in the morning line. So that would be certainly one

there. And the other one that ran in

Canada. I think it's Cy Fair as well,

George Weaver's horse. So that was that was quite good.

Obviously we're recording this before the the draw on Monday,

so that would be crucial as well.

But don't get me wrong, true love is a top class grade one

horse. They'll be tough to beat.

Yeah, Lenalu is an interesting runner for Patrick and Conan out

of his barn. She's just fast, James.

There's and there's nothing. I mean, and she's a five kind of

furlong specialist, right? And it does stand out amongst

the American runners. I agree with you.

Yeah. So that bit of one certainly for

the for punters listen to this in the UK that may be an angle

taking the UK odds on that one. Yeah, there you go.

Yeah, it seems to be a race. And, and James, I'd, I'd love to

know what you think about, do you think going forward we're

going to see it be a more competitive race as far as

Americans winning it than EUR? Because I do, I think, I think

that the Euro, especially the trainers have figured out, hey,

we got to do some game work. We got to just speed it up.

Once we start doing those things, we'll be OK.

Yes. So yeah, it's really, it really

depends on the the horse. You see Shark 5I I still think

that favours the Americans that do, yeah.

Even after last year or James Welsh?

Yes, even after that, just one, one other thing I would say if

he sends it was Ian O'Brien's and other horses entered called

Mission, Mission Central who won his Champions Day only about 13

days ago. This horse is developing quite

rapidly and it can go from the front again.

Probably 6 follows as it stripped.

But if I could bust out the gate, it's a big strong horse

and it could go well, maybe feed exotics at a big price.

Yeah, is that? Essentially a Group 1.

That horse, no, I wouldn't be, I guess just come through the

ranks. Mission Central.

So it didn't want a Group One at Royal to the Champions Day.

Ask it one accepts a a classified sort of stakes race

worth a yeah. I just I see the I see the the

purse amount over. 3. 1000 and I think OK, that's got to be a

Group One in the UK and so. Yeah, it wasn't.

No, no, it was one of these ones.

It was a valuable conditions race, yes.

Very cool. OK, Yeah, kind of like our state

bread races over here in, in in the United States.

There you go. So let's move on.

Second race we'll talk about on Friday with James Welsh is the

Breeders Cup Juvenile Philly Turf, and that's a mile on the

turf course there. Last year, James, you came on

and you caught me off guard by talking about Lake Victoria the

way that you did. And then, James, you were very

right about Lake Victoria. And you know, I was talking with

David Jennings from the Racing Post the other day and I asked

him sort of a question based on your handicapping from last year

about Lake Victoria. I know how excited he is about

Precise. How?

Excited. Are you about her?

Because I'm hearing not just comparisons, but potentially

she's a little better than Lake Victoria, which is incredible.

That's interesting. They have a very, I would say I

am not as excited. So it's a very similar, very,

very similar profile when we come on here last year, you

know, last year, the odds it was slightly odds against, but it

was a it was a horse, you know, with a bit of work and running

and it finally got it. It was way above the class of

these the classes. And the good thing for me

playing into the American pools, it was the banker, it was your

daily double banker. It was your pick 3 banker, you

know all those. So it was great to do that

precise would be one that the current odds of around about,

you know, 6511 to 10 just got odds against at the moment.

Yes, it's got, you know, fantastic forms, 1-2 group ones.

You won the top race in Ireland, one the top top race in England,

favorite for the 1000 Guineas. So yeah, I mean, actually you

think it's too good. It's only a bit late.

Victoria. What?

It's almost too good. It's done an awful ready for

this year. What why?

Why send it out there? So yes, it's going to be very,

very tough to beat and even its best if if it's silly or to blow

its best, it probably could still win.

But I do think there are a couple value bets against it, so

I won't be betting it in that play and I'll be trying to

hopefully get it beat with an outsider.

The one thing I would say about his last run and it was overall

time was a very fast time. But the first furlong precisely

ran it in 14.69 seconds, which is pretty slow, and it's last

furlong was 13.15. For a tough race, Group One that

was slow. The race went in the middle of

the race, so they went. Obviously the horses went too

fast too, too soon in the the earlier race and it sort of

picked up the pieces later on. But it was very impressive and

will be tough to beat. But it won't be a play or a bank

and pick threes or any lot for me at that that price.

The couple have got against it and we touched the point once

again. We mentioned, you know, probably

the outsider of them, Queen of Hawaii, which is 20 to 1 here,

which I think is is, you know, there's an interesting there.

It's also one round in in Leperstone, which is the top

track, top, top flat tracking and Ireland out with the and

that's got a sharp left hand bend.

And that to me is very important to me.

You're going round those and two bends here.

So it's going, that's going to be 1.

I'd be sort of interested between 20 to 1.

And then an even bigger bomb for us here.

There's a horse called Pacific Mission trained by Andrew

Balding and you know, the last time we built on soft ground.

Just just tired of me betting to finish top trainer and Andrew

building and I wouldn't be surprised, but I don't think

it'll be a win. Won't certainly it won't be a

win, but certainly for a fan playing at the American pools

and exotics, it's currently 25 to one year.

I might as well be a massive price over there.

So that would be what I'd be looking to use underneath as

well. So so that would be certainly I

won't be using precise as a a single this this time.

Yeah, it's a, it's the rare couple of days James, where I'd

really do the play show kind of bets, but that kind.

Of. Stands out as an opportunity to

get 20 bucks in the play spot or something like that, right where

you can you can kind of build that bankroll throughout the

day. It's not as exciting Rick, a

second or third place horse, but hey, if it pays, the pays,

right? It pays, pays, yeah.

And as I said in the UK here we call it each way betting.

So you can lock in the price. So if you're putting £50 each

way, you're getting £50 one bet but 50 LB place bet at 25 to one

that pays more than your your one bet so.

Right. Yeah, yeah, It's an exciting

one. Balding's an interesting

trainer, too, when he comes over to North America, and he's very,

very specific in the spots he picks.

Yes, he he will make he, he he he will be champion trainer at

some point here. I think he's really improving

and he will become a big name in America.

Yeah. So, yeah.

Is there an? American in this group that

stands out to you. At all, and so I so I had a a

quick look. What was the one the one who was

is it time to dream? Todd Todd Pletcher was the one.

Now the thing for that is that and this this could be the

benefit again for against, I think 61 monoline.

I think that one will come in a bit in American odds, but

probably move up a bit in the UK odds.

So that's the interesting 1 and I would use.

That's the American one I'll be using in exotics.

Time to do. That that Jessamine was an

excellent race. Yeah.

You know, it's interesting, James.

The top finishers in that race all came from Kentucky Downs and

I'm sure you've seen in the racing there, that's our track

here in, in, in the Commonwealth here in Kentucky that's, you

know, a mile and 5/8 or whatever.

And up and down the hill is a little bit of right, more of a

British style kind of that way. And all of the horses in the top

three that race came out of that track.

So our horses here are adjusting well to those, you know, those

undulations and the flat tracks and all that stuff.

So it's been I think a bit of a different thing coming out of

Kentucky Downs this year, which is interesting in itself.

I think I would be crazy not to ask you who you've got in the

juvenile. OK.

Juvenile who you got? I know you love your American

dirt racing. Yes, well, obviously Ted and off

he's looked very, very good. You know, certainly the East

Coast and I think the East Coast forms a bit stronger.

So I've tried to get something to looked at the races and tried

to get something to beat it. But at the moment 65 Ted and

off, it's a bit short for me. But yeah, it's the most likely

one. But certainly I think something

will come through and probably challenge it strongly.

I don't think it will totally dominate the race, but I just

don't know what one it is unless you've got 1.

You could steal his I. Got one I like here that I think

because of the connections will not get the respect that he

deserves and he just need a bunch of Bafferts last out.

His name is Intrepido that read this horse for 15 grand.

OK, so just a just a a very, very normal, but that's a war

front That's a into mischief on the on the sire side, pleasantly

perfect on the damn side. So this is actually if you go to

the grand level, This is a well bred horse.

He beat desert gate and Plutarch last out at San Anita before

that broke his maiden going two turns at Del Mar as well in 135

and change over the mile. He is fast, he's capable, but

nobody knows the name Jeff Mullins unless you're really

paying attention to the hell party racing.

So that might be an opportunity. So there's one to throw in your

your your exhaust. We look at here there.

You go, but Race 10 is the juvenile turf.

I love this race every year. This was, of course, the race

last year that we got to meet many, many great runners that

have turned out the things here because Scott comes in out of

the Dewhurst Stakes, Group One win at Newmarket.

What I liked about that, James, is we try to figure out who's

going to run well, you know, in the turf conditions, the flat

conditions plus the weather that we have in the United States, it

was it was good to firm go there.

So I like that part of it, of course, for sure.

How good is he and how good has the company been that he's been

in with recent races? Very good and I think he touched

upon the the later in the year has been the the autumn has been

quite dry over here. So a lot of the races have been

good to firm. So there's probably around about

going to be about 50 horses coming over from Europe this

year. That's slightly down on

previously 7080 than before. And I think it's because of the

dry autumn people would have avoided the, you know, the art

meeting was fairly good. No, it still was soft, but it

wasn't bottomless if we wipe a horse out.

But the Champions Day at Ascot was good to firm as well, a

decent ground. So a lot of horses ran here and

sort of will skip the Breeders cups and probably the challenge

from Europe this year is not as probably as strong as it would

have been. But you're right, a late autumn

race. Gustad won it won, it ran second

at Newham Market, it's ran third on three group ones.

I think it's 3 total group ones ran third and three the top main

races in Europe, runner up success of three group ones

which is top class forum. The one thing I would say about

it, it's a big horse so I prefer a more nimble horse and it also

takes a bit of a pull. It's a bit headstrong as well.

So yes, a fast pace will suit it and probably can run a bend

might be an advantage for it, but there is negatives against

it. So it's one that you know, I

certainly won't be at the moment.

It's currently what is it 5 to 4?

The best price for it. The one against it was obviously

the the we've mentioned previously that humidity was

going to probably run in this race.

It's been scratched and that would have been an 8 to 110 to

1. Fair play for me.

So Gustad, some negatives against it.

I can't find too much else with it.

Others I said other than the euro there was humidity.

It's not running. There's one I would say just a

crazy price again is North Coast, again trained by Joseph

O'Brien, who seems to have a few outsiders here.

But it does have American owners and they probably might have,

although it was well beaten last time, but it was beaten on

softest ground. So maybe it's a complete, I

wouldn't say it's a winning opportunity, but 25 to 133 one

for American owners. Joseph Bryan knows what he's

doing as well. So I can see that running.

But other than that, it looks pretty light from the Europe.

So I think the thought Gustad's probably got a very, very strong

chance, but certainly won't be a a single for me and I'd be

looking probably. As I said, I've tried to look at

the Americans bought us. I've looked at that, you know,

I'm trying to find something else and say the Pilgrim was a

looks to me probably usually the the key key trial for us, for

Americans, but I don't have a strong one digged out yet.

We'll see how the draw develops, you know.

I'm interested in Argos of the American runners just coming out

in that summer at at Woodbine. This will come up a couple of

times, James. But you know, they have the two

turf courses there at Woodbine. The larger one on the outside is

under renovation. So they didn't run those races.

They usually run their Woodbine mile, these other ones where it

would create a one turn mile, kind of a wide sweeping mile

there. Instead they went the two turns

this year and it's a much tighter thing.

So it's much more like the Del Mar setup.

Yes. So I think that'll that'll set

up really interestingly as well. So I like seeing these horses

especially, you know, you mentioned a gestalf, for

example. What I liked about him is even

on debut, what did he do? He went left-handed and he won

right. And so that's, you know, he's

he's able to do a little bit of everything.

And I've learned from you to look away.

If a horse can go right-handed, they can almost certainly also

go left-handed. So just, you know, you know,

they'll be able to figure it out once they get there.

Let's move on to Saturday. He's James Welsh, jwracing.com

our our annual visit with him. I keep telling him we need to

have him on ahead of the Kentucky Derby.

And I do a poor job of reaching out to him ahead of that.

I think I did this year. But you were at a cool concert.

I think that's what happened in April.

Yeah, yes, I definitely always. There was a few concerts and I

think there's that. We arranged it.

I may have bought a ticket for some, yes.

You know what, that's a lot better than talking to me.

But our second thing starts with the turf Sprint in race 5 in a

horse that's really come into his own this year.

James is Arizona Blaze and you know he is unusual in in an

American sense and that he's only finishing up his third.

He's finishing up his his three-year old season.

He's going to have run 18 times by the time he gets to the end

of his his 10 year old year. He's got a ton of experience.

I love a horse that's obviously developing, getting better and

has seen a little bit of everything.

I don't think the travel's going to bother him.

What do you what do you think of Arizona plays?

You summed up well. Yeah, it's it's a decent quality

horse and it's the best. Obviously we're sending over

from from Europe. But what I've got to say is this

year I know we'd European won on recently, but the turf Sprint

division in Europe is abysmal. It is really, really poor,

really poor. So if you can't win this, I

would have been amazed if an American horse doesn't win this.

So Arizona Blaze, solid horse, could run well.

But you know, the best horse we had in Europe this year was a

horse called Dashfora. The sprinter Philly came over

from Australia, won a couple of big races, went close to others,

but she wasn't even top level in America and I don't think she'd

be the top 10 sprinters in Australia.

So she comes over here, you know, kicks the butt of

basically all these European horses, the European Sprint

division, there's no dominant force there, you know, big price

winners. So I would be I'm very surprised

if Europe wins this. The other one we've got sending

over is kidding my 9 year old, you know, So I think the track

will be too far for that. So I think it's that I was

looking at the US horses that said bring the band home shows a

lot of speed, But will it get taken on?

But I definitely think this is set up for AUS and potentially a

bomb for this one in the US. This could be an interesting

race, I think to to for the exotics.

I think this could be a probably an outside that I'm not

notorious in the, you know, AG bullet, etcetera.

I'll be there. But no, I think something could

come and beat him. I remember I was at Santa Anita

two years ago for the Breeders Cup and there was 2 British guys

we met and and they're like who's who's the fastest American

turf horse horse in the stretch. I said his name is No balls.

I don't know if he could win though.

James, he was 12 to one and those guys cast a nice like that

this year. It's a nice reminder, though,

that there is, you know, when we get especially this distance,

James speed is good speed. Fields, right And that's.

It if there's a pass on the course, they're fast enough they

get out of the gate. No balls is definitely in that

category previously at least and so there you go.

I'm interested, frankly, Pearl magic is coming over.

They're going to try potentially him on the turf from Japan and I

I'm always fascinated by that. He does have five wins over the

turf, but he does a little bit of everything.

He won left-handed in an Ibis Jack 53 in change over 5

furlongs. If that's accurate, James, he

wins every race in the world. Yeah, I.

Think that's it and I've been calling I'm a supporter of Japan

racing. They're fantastic, but I don't

know if some of the times I've read one or two come over there

previously and the time seemed absolutely incredible.

You know the obviously the ground must be so rock hard fast

that. Yeah, So hey, let me ask you

about a dirt or a dirt race here.

Obviously with the retirement of Thorquito Anna, there's gonna be

a changing of the guard at the top of the distaff division here

in the United States. And in Race 7 on Saturday, we

will have the Breeders Cup Distaff there.

I've fallen in love with a three-year old here.

James, if you want one for an exacto trifecta, her name is

Kliko. She just won a Grade 1 petillion

at parks. It's on the Pennsylvania Derby

day. I watched her win in Indiana

over the summer, James, And what stood out to me and I, and I'm

I'm sure you look for these kinds of cues as well.

She gets done with the race. They bring her to the to the

winner's circle. It's a busy, I mean a busy day.

It's their big day of the trap. You could have set off fireworks

around her and nothing would happen.

She's a total pro. Brendan Walsh is having a year

here in the United States. So that's my long shot in the

race. I imagine she's going to be

12:15 to 1, something like. That I've just looked at the

price soon as you mentioned that, because I didn't obviously

seismic beauty running, you know, such a huge buyer last

time out, but I I can lock in 16 to one in the UK odds at the

moment. So there you go.

Thank you. I don't know that James, again,

I don't know that she wins, but she's getting better.

That's it. And I think she doesn't miss the

board buddy. I mean, she just is an absolute

animal. Four wins in a row.

So maybe I won't get the the number, but Brendan Walters has

been developing 3 year olds this year as well as anyone in the

United States. So she's one to watch.

Is there? Do you have another favorite

though? Not obviously in that race

seismic beauty, as you said, looking at the buyers, 110

buyers and she runs anything like that.

She should do it. But as I say, they do regress

and a Philly. So, but no, no strong opinion in

that race. No, unfortunately, Yep.

Yeah, seismic beauty and once in a while, James, you just lean on

the locals and she's running really well and you just lean on

the locals. The Breeders Cup Turf is Race 8

and this is one of the grand races of the year.

James a mile and a half. We're going to go the three

turns there at Del Mar and look, this is setting up, I think

James to be one of the great fields that we've seen in this

race in a very long time. You get the return of the champ

and Rebels romance, but you get the new runner and she's a

three-year old Billy and she almost won the darn arc and her

name is Mini Hawk Hulk. I got to say James I I

appreciate connections, taking chances and and setting up these

kinds of races for us. But at the same time, there's

$1,000,000 check waiting for, but they they're that confident.

Should they be that confident? Well, she's an even money

favorite here, so obviously, you know, so even money.

So she's well liked. She's won unbelievably 4 Oaks

this year, three of them group ones.

So she's won the Yorkshire Oaks, the English Oaks, the Irish Oaks

until in the start of the year she won a prep.

It was the Cheshire Oaks run at Chester, which is the most

American style track in in the UK.

It's a very tight track, very picturesque and it won that as

well. She's one thing about it, she's

a big, big, strong horse as well.

So I don't know if the, you know, as I said, just after

saying she's won it, what do you call it, Chester?

But as I said for this, she'll need everything to go right.

We know a lot of people are, you know, there's a lot of publicity

about it because obviously Rebels remands, you know, it's

well known now it's going for the third one, which would be

the first time to get a third one in the race.

So that's going to get a lot of support.

So I think Rebels romance will take a lot of money.

But one thing about it, when I'm looking at the race, there's a

couple of very interesting ones, but they all like to go from the

front. So Mini Hulk could be forwardly

placed, Rebels Reminds could be forwardly placed.

There's another horse called Amliko which had won I think had

won five race in a row, one at Royal Ascot with second last

time out in soft crowd over slightly a bit fuddling in the

likes. So it's coming back in trip, it

will definitely stay the distance.

So if they can get Amco out and running on an uncontested lead,

that could be a very interesting horse and never want to run in

America, Canada silver again that that that LED from the

front out there on an uncontested lead.

So I think they are. And to add it all to it, there's

a horse called Goliath in the race, which is 12:50, which come

back to form last time one in Germany last year when it won

the King George at Royal Ascot Ascot, it absolutely thrashed

Rebels romance on, you know, similar conditions.

So but it just lost its way and it probably wasn't run.

But I know the trainer, the owner, John Stewart is it.

He's quite a big owner in America now.

So I think he bought that and obviously he supplemented that

for the race. I think it needs to be a bit

soft, as I say, the one in Germany, last time in Germany,

normally soft the ground. So Goliath could be quite well

fancied, but I don't think the ground will suit that.

So the interesting 1 you can never leave him out.

Charlie appably El Cordebase, although it was beaten last time

fair and square, this race will have more pace in it and I can

see that getting held off. And if there's a if there's a

pace meltdown, it could, you know, could be the one to come

through. So there's a lot of ways to go

and unfortunately I don't I don't have a strong steering you

at the moment. I think the American horses, I

don't think you've got anything. I've looked today the American,

the one our horse I looked at, you know, Brian Means won this

race twice with, you know, some long shots.

So Rashaba. But if you look at back on he

say he's adamant the horse is a mile up.

So if it's going to be a fast run mile and 1/2, will it stay?

I I think the the legs are going to run out of it.

So that was probably 1 I did look at, but just to be on the

grounds of, you know, more or less what the trainer was

saying. It would probably struggle to

get the distance. So that's one the Americans.

Unfortunately, I don't see anything at all.

I know restricting. Is it restricting split reverend

romance in the Elkhart West, but I don't see any reason why it

would overturn the the form. They're M2 so, but certainly

it's going to it's going to generate a lot of publicity in

this race. And as I said, Mini Hawk, she's

a tough season, but she's a superstar.

You know, people are comparing it to the horse similar to a

couple of years ago it was enabled, which is a it was a

great horse. So people mention it in the same

breath as that. So, so, yeah, once again,

sporting for me and O'Brien and the Kilmore team to to run it in

the race. It's it's fantastic, Yeah.

I mean, any time a daughter of Frankel runs like that in the

arc at three years old, people are going to get excited.

I and you know what, they should, they absolutely should.

And so I, I'm not mad about it. I'm just glad James, I, I, you

said it last year with Lake Victoria.

I can't believe they're shipping her.

I'm just glad people keep shipping these horses.

I think that's the thing. I think Kilmore are on the the

board there would be this Topsy. They do support it and it's

fantastic. So yeah, it's great to see you.

Very sporty. Really, really is fantastic.

The Breeders Cup Mile is race 10, but do you have a a classic

pick at this point? I'll probably, I think probably

I don't tweet as much as I used to, but when I did mention it, I

don't remember doing a tweet and I definitely think I'm a

supporter of the three-year olds over the the older horses.

I think that I think they're an incredible bunch.

I think sovereignty fabulously horse.

I think journalism has been tough, has a tough campaign, but

it still shows up. So in the UK we're getting was

it 2 to 1 sovereignty twelves 14 to 1.

Journalism seems too far too far apart.

And the one I I said at the time, I think might probably if

you if you continue into the four year old careers, Besia

could be one that yes, I know it's been training well, it was

a bit immature in the year. It's a wee bit behind everything

else. But I think it's the long term

and always this in the back of my mind that Bezier could be the

classic. I didn't think it was going to

turn up, but I think this is as good a classic as there probably

could ever have been. You know, with, you know, Sierra

Leone there fierceness who turns up on it.

If fierceness turns up on his day, he can be anybody.

If it's a pace meltdown. And I don't know if it is 'cause

I think they were talking about running a rabbit, Sierra Leone,

big long stride, finishing late, you know, I mean, this could be

an absolute race for the ages. It's fantastic.

I think there's a world in which fierceness is on the front at

the top of the stretch. Yep, and both Sierra Leone and

sovereignty are making serious. Serious runs, they can just

pitch you. At the end together and four

horses in there for no reason or whatever, yes, I I think it sets

up for potentially a spectacular.

It is, yeah. Well, good stuff.

All right, well, race 10 is the mile, and this one has James.

I won't lie. This is 1 I can't figure out

because this is a spot, you know, we've seen recently

Johannes Acosta, Creed, some other American runners that are

actually really good milers, right?

I Johannes has not been up to that stuff this year.

I'm hoping that he got back to it in that City of Hope mile.

Last time it was really fast. In a minute, 34.

Yeah, He can do that again at Del Mar.

He's got a real shot. But there's some others in here,

James, especially European shippers, that are really

interesting. And it's notable speech, of

course, that stands above this field.

Does he stand far above this field for you?

No. No, definitely not.

And it's I love this rate. This is a real good race.

The the draw is going to be crucial.

As I say, we won't know that to tomorrow and at current price.

Notable speech 5 to 2. I wouldn't want anything to do

with that. I think it's slightly

regressing. Charlie Appleby yeah, it'll run

a good race but definitely one to take on and get beat.

One of the key races obviously last time at Keeneland was the

race Rhetorical 1. I loved that and I remember when

it won its debut at Saratoga about 18 months ago.

It was mind blowing. I thought this is and I've

backed it and I'll followed it and it keeps getting out.

As I said, I can't remember the price we got.

I got a fabulous price last time out of it.

So it and it led from the front and it went off at a pace and I

thought, oh, there's no a pace jewel.

It held on no problem. And the ones that tried to chase

it, they finished out the back. So it's AI at the UK odds.

I'm certainly I think rhetorical will go go well and run well for

a long way. But there is real good horses in

here against it. You know, Ian O'Brien obviously

sending over the line in winter. This horse was, you know, meant

to be the his best 3 year old at the turn of the year.

It was favorite for, you know, 1000 guys, the Darby, it's

favorite for everything partly get ill in the spring and it's

come back in the last couple of weeks, run 2 good races in a

quick succession. And I believe he's sent over all

be confirmed in the next day or two.

So that's that's certainly a horse that is very well thought

of and is is run well recently. So one to keep an eye on, but

wouldn't be 1 of betting. The one I'm quite more

interested in is Chal and the French horse.

And how good has French racing been this year?

Is it because I hear for many people that it's it's been a

very good year for French turf racing?

It is so they've been good. So the trainer of this the guy

young trainer Graffard, he won the at the triumph with Darzan

who bet mini hawk and I think he's going now for for a young

trainer. It's just exploding on his

scene. He's going for the 13th Group 1.

So that is fantastic for a breakout season.

And salon is definitely I mean, no, you know, French, French

horse have a good record in the mile here, And that's that's

that's my worry. But I think Salan could be the

one that gets caught. I'm trying to be sneaky and say,

oh, pissing the exotics. And that's my banker for the you

know, you know, the show and it it gets over bet in America.

So but I certainly want to I'll definitely be be including the

other one. I would say I've got to give a

mention to back to a friend. Horses are probably overpriced a

wee bit is Andrew Bond's horse John Quill, who was it was

forced in that race, that rhetorical win, but he was

drawn. It was 1112 might have been

outweighed it. Did you know inside to try and

get by the way he was? On the complete outside 11 of

11. Complete outside, so he got

terrible trip. We can put a line through that

and he was still pretty close at the finish.

You know me, I look at the time, so I've got it here in front.

He actually finished in 2248, which is the fastest.

So he actually finished the fastest 2 furlongs.

So so there you go. And you can get at the moment

probably around about 20 to 1. So that that's it and the one up

when you see locate. A Vega at a mile, Man that you,

John? Yeah.

So, so that that's an interesting 1.

So as I say, Salah with John Krills, I was looking at that

and just as one I was looking through the race and that's what

was this horse called 1 stripe the Graham Motion and I took the

way it's apparently it's Grover. It's it's South African

champion. Apparently one of the best

thoughts about South Africa. Ran it out in Woodbine ran a

stink and it Woodbine, but you never know.

It's getting acclimatized and I think you can get 50 to 160

sixty one that could go off talking about over 100 to one or

something. No, I don't know anything about

it. I'll be very intrigued to to get

some local knowledge about it because I don't like leaving

these things out and this can be I'm here not as you know, not to

bet favourites. I'm looking for bombs.

I'm going to crush this. And if you get that into the

three, it makes some difference. So, yeah, so Graham Motion this

year is racing his horses as well.

And you know, he's an Irishman, but the, the as well as anyone

is he won, he won a grade 2 at Santa Anita last year with a

horse that also won it at Aqueduct this year, a grade one

there. And so he is, he's picking these

spots and doing that sort of thing.

I would not be surprised if this horse runs really, really well.

And frankly, he introduced many of these horses on the East

Coast of the United States at a full stream and at Colonial down

in Virginia and they ran really well immediately essentially.

And so, yeah, I, I, I'm with you, I think the second run in

North America, especially when we're switching hemispheres,

right? It's not just going east to

West, it's switching hemispheres.

The schedules are totally different.

I'm with. And the one I would like to ask

you for, middle man 6 from 6 at the track.

But always feel, you know, the Californian grass horses are

just not even as good as the American East Coast horses, let

alone the Euro horses. So I'm a wee bit wary of it, but

it's certainly when do I need to include that, would you think

for middle man's one that I need to look at?

Or is it because Euro Euro's going to just be too good for

them here and rhetorical? I'll say this, if you're going

to include an American horse, I think Johannes at this distance

is simply Johannes is better than him.

I don't know what that number is.

It's probably not long enough, frankly, but he's he's not as

good at Del Mar as he is at Santa Anita. 7 for seven

lifetime at Santa Anita. But at the distance, if you

look, he's 5 for seven. Just ran the City of Hope mile

in a in $1.34. That was second in the in the

that was second in the forum cycle James and before that they

shipped him E to run against the East Coast horses and the

four-star Dave off a huge layoff.

So they obviously think a lot of him.

And if you're going to include American horse, I think it's

especially the West Coast. I think it's Johannes that'll

get a piece. OK.

Good to know. Thanks.

And then finally, Race 12 is the Philly and Mayor turf.

We talked about it earlier. If MIDI Hawk were in here, we

wouldn't talk about the race, but I wanted to ask you about a

couple of others. See, the fire is in here, yes,

and she's coming in from that balding barn that we have talked

about. Not any personal balding, but

barn. What do we expect from?

This one, as I said, form figures look quite good.

She's brought her up. She's brought up three group

ones to top Cloud Room, really top class horses.

So she's been running against the best horses around and maybe

a reproduction of that form will be good enough to do it.

But you know, she's a tapered 3 to one favorite 72 best price

here, which is probably fair, but she doesn't excite me out.

You know, I think there's something there we we we could

get her to to get beat with. I know people have mentioned

diamond rain Charlie appably again, but it doesn't feel one

for me. She feels pretty the the the

American horse is quite well fancied even here.

It's quite short and the betting again, but will it stay the trip

again the fast run race. I'm not 100% certain Bedtime

story Aiden O'Brien wasn't one of tooth I know I didn't like so

the winner ended up on 2 closes out back to our French friends.

Henry Gaffard Jazora again, well behind many.

As you've talked about the class in the race, so many we don't

think it's going to run in this race.

Jordan was 13th in the arc behind it going softer than it

needed. Didn't have a good draw to draw

in the arc is crucial in the 1st first four home were all drawn

less than 5. So if you were drawn out wide

you didn't really by chance. So she did sort of take a pool

early on come in. So just doing a thing and get a

good trip. So I think we could probably put

a line through that race in the arc and a a form before that was

very good improving and it's a lovely price as well.

So that would be the sort of one I would be sort of looking at

just now, yeah. Yeah, give me another is in this

race as well. Another of those South African

breads was another champion down there.

And there you see her form at Tampa, Churchill, Saratoga.

It's not good. She just won a Del Mar.

I mean this was very clearly set up for this race.

She's an interesting one here. I don't know if Juan Hernandez,

who's a champion rider in South Southern California will keep

them out there, James, but it's interesting.

I would try to get a a higher level turf rider than than than

Juan for this race if I'm grand motion.

But no guarantees with any of those things.

But you did mention that she feels pretty is getting bet down

in Europe as well. Do you give her a shot here?

She's. Got a shot, but as I said, I

think her odds are too low now we we're down about 61, which

is, you know, pretty pretty short for a horse question marks

with distance, but it's solid form and she she definitely look

she looks certain to run quite quite well.

So she she's quite fancy. Never.

Missed the trifecta, right? I mean, it's just that kind of

horse. And when you get to distance

turf races like this, I, if I know you're going to be in the

trifecta, I'm putting you on my ticket.

You know what I mean? It's just she's got to be.

Yeah. Fun stuff.

Well, great. And, well, James, I mean, I

always appreciate this conversation.

What's your next concert? Where are you going next?

What are you doing? You're my music.

What the music wise? And it's usually a good time of

the year for me, but I don't have anything lined up at the

moment. I don't think so.

Oh, have we have, we have. We have got a band called Band,

an old band from when I was about in the late 80s, early 90s

called My Bloody Valentine. Of course, yeah, yeah.

So, so they they'll give me a comeback.

So I'll probably go along and see My Bloody Valentine.

All right, James, well, the, the British Cup's in the state of

Kentucky next year, so if you need a bed, you got a bed.

All right, you come visit me. You stay with me.

We'll do some shows together. We'll have a blast.

You'll have to share a mutual thing, but you can get over it.

All right, well, go beat the books with him, jwracing.com.

Go check him out, especially if you happen to be listening over

James's part of the world and you're trying to beat the

bookies and all that kind of stuff.

James, I always appreciate this conversation.

Good luck at the Breeders Cup, my friend.

Talk to you. Good luck.

Enjoy it. OK, thanks.

There you go. Bye.

Alright. He's James Welsh at jwracing.com

on the socials as well. Thanks, James.

Great. Thank you much, Lee.

Good luck.