Friend of the show Barry Spears (@urbnhandicapper) joins to walk through the pick 6 on Saturday at Churchill Downs.
It’s Claiming Crown Day – let’s make some money!
Friend of the show Barry Spears (@urbnhandicapper) joins to walk through the pick 6 on Saturday at Churchill Downs.
It’s Claiming Crown Day – let’s make some money!
All right, welcome in a special Friday afternoon edition of the
Horse Racing Happy Hour Louisville.
Of course, back porch at my house horse of here in
Louisville, KY ahead of the claiming Crown 2024 edition.
We'll be out there tomorrow hanging out at Churchill Downs.
Make sure that if you are out there, you come by and say hi
either in the paddock or section 320 where we are always hanging
out. I want to encourage people get
out there right now. Tobacco's by ace on sale right
now with our Guy J Shepard out there on Bardstown Rd.
So pop in on your way to the track tomorrow, Bardstown Rd.
just north of Eastern Parkway. He'll have you all set up.
Hey mention the show get an extra cigar for free with any
order over there. Our guy Jason Shepard and J
Shepard cigars go say hi to them over there tell them that we
sent you a man that has had a cigar or five in his life.
His name is Barry Spears, joins us from a very chilly northern
Florida. Barry, I'm very sorry.
I, we, we're having a, a bit of a funeral here for the weather
that you're having to endure, even though I man, we ain't got
no leaves. I mean, there's nothing here
bro. Yeah, everything is naked back
there and cold and that's not my thing.
But you guys are in section 320. I have a question, is there a
section 420? Do they do different things than
you guys with the cigars in that section?
Man, I love you asking that question.
Here's the answer to that. It's very simple, by the way,
it's 53° here and very humid, which means it's just sitting
and disgusting. It just is.
It's the the nature of the beast.
This time of year here at Louisville, there probably is
not a section 420 'cause once you get above the three
hundreds, there's something else.
But your joke is very funny, so I don't I I kind of want it to
be true now, All right. Make it happen.
Come on, Louis, you're kind of a strike.
A local. You're strike that 3 bird
Shaker. That's right.
Come on, Kevin Kirstein. Make it happen.
No, Kevins got that all day. I kind of agree with you
actually. Both of them, both Kevin, Kevin
Kilroy as well. Yeah, yeah.
Oh, you know they. They got to do it for the team
do. It for the team maybe Caitlin
free swoops in and saves all of us at the end of the day had her
on this morning if she. Can't get it done.
Nobody can get it. Done yeah, we're we're done
here. That's exactly right.
May as well hang up the hang up the the old podcast strings, if
you will. And so Barry, cool day tomorrow,
man in with with the claiming crown.
It's, it's I, I think of like the Breeders Cup on crack, man.
Because I, I was telling you right before we came, it's the
day where a horse wins and then you go back to the past
performances and you're like, Oh yeah, there it is.
I feel like more often on this day than almost any other day
that we have on the calendar. Yeah.
You know, it's, it's kind of odd the way this day works with
these like starter allowance kind of conditions.
You get these horses that have a lot of bat class or, or or in
form really well at one time and then out of form and then coming
back in the form. I mean, typical claiming type
stuff. That's right.
But it makes very hard, it makes for a hard time for these races
because you're getting horses from different circuits running
a different kinds of claiming races.
Some may be better than others, some may look not as good, but
maybe better. So it, it, it gets really tricky
trying to get selections here and, and sometimes you get
these, uh, you know, wonky kind of prices on horses that
actually look a little better than what their past
performances might say. Yeah, so Barry and I are gonna
look at the last six races on the card here.
That'll start with race 6. So if you are playing the Derby
City 6:00 tomorrow, that pick 6 at Churchill Downs will have you
covered at least for our on top picks.
Ask Barry ahead of this one. Like we did with Travis Stone
last night. Top play and then a price play
in each race. Frankly, on a day like this, not
very difficult to find a good price play in every single race.
I've got a couple, frankly, for numerous races.
I've got a race here, Barry, where I've got 8 to one on top
with 12:50 in second spot. I mean, it's that kind of disc.
That's, that's, that's what I love and, and, and, and actually
in this race, I have the same sort of deal.
Awesome. OK, so let's get into it, man.
Like I said, we'll be out there tomorrow, so if you are kicking
around, hit us on Twitter at Horse Happy Hour, whatever you
got to do to let us know that you're up there.
But of course, 320 is my usual section of choice where the the
J Shepard goodness comes out and you can come grab a cigar from
me. But the sixth race is an $8000 a
starter allowance here, $100,000 in the Kitty though. 6 furlongs
on the dirt. We're sprinting here.
Caramel Chip is back from his run in the Godolphin Mile.
This this year hasn't won on dry dirt in a really long time.
Barry looks like we're going to have nice conditions for the
races tomorrow, so I'm going to be against him as we run this
race tomorrow. Where did you land in Race 6?
Yeah, I'm I'm totally against that horse.
It's it's so weird. His career because it, you know,
recent he's running in in graded stakes over in Dubai and then
prior to that he was running in the start allowance races.
It's like, well, what what kind of horse is he?
Pretty good. He's a six year old, a little
long and the tooth hasn't been out in the wild 222 to one on a
horse like this that's kind of inconsistent.
I I can't do it. I actually went outside towards
the OR not towards 2 the 8 Charter Oak.
I think this has some races at Prairie Meadows at higher
classes that that would probably be a little bit better class
wise than than some of these others. 12 to one should get a a
good setup. I I think there's enough pace in
here for this horse to run them down late.
There you go. So that's both an on top and a
price horse here. I said I'm against the one here.
I'm not against the two and I know 2 to one or five to two,
excuse me, is gonna get no one's blood boiling on a day like
today. But I do think Concrete Glory
has a serious shot in this 1/6 for 16 lifetime at the distance
hasn't missed the board this year.
Barry has been running really, really well at Gulfstream Park.
I don't think Safi ships this horse for no reason.
This 65 year old excuse me, son of Bodie Meister.
And look, I mean, you know, you talk about which horses make up
these races. This is an exact perfect
example. They, you know, they bought this
horse at a sale for 14K Awesome. Good for you.
Because he's turned into a horse that's made over a quarter
$1,000,000 in his life. And he'll be, I think, one of
the favorites, if not the favor by the time we get there.
I do like the three here. Bury the King of Kentucky's
gonna come in. McKee gets the ride.
Claude Bronfield and I, this is a horse that's been running
really well. If you look at the form when
he's in this type of company, he wins, right?
He wins by 10 of Belterra and then a $5000 lounge before that
wins at Belterra and other optional claiming company.
It's when he gets to a place like Indiana and he's running
in, frankly a, you know, a high level allowance in Indiana.
He runs second. So if we're gonna get that kind
of, you know, output from him, I think he's got a serious shot
here as well. And my logger play was more the
11 in here. The horse real naughty.
I think you're gonna hear the name Brian Hernandez junior
ought to be a a lot ahead of this day.
But this horse comes in has been running a Thistle down up in
Cleveland in a bunch of allowance races for non 3
lifers, that sort of thing. This horse won a non 4 lifer
event this year, frankly, going 6 furlongs at Thistle $1.10
final time there. So that horseman you can get 12
to one. You get Brian on that horseman.
This is exactly what we're talking about with claiming
crown. That's the kind of horse that
can make or break your day, but certainly make it.
One thing I'll say about this race is there is no shortage of
speed. If you can't close in this race,
I don't think they're you're going to get any closers at all.
This is a tough race. I I mean in general, just
because there's there's like half the field is, is all out
speed and half the field just likes to close.
So should be interesting. Yeah, should be a fun one for
sure. I think every horse I mentioned
is gonna try to get some part of the lead.
It's gonna be a horse like Charter Oak that's gonna pick it
off if they are able to pick it off later on.
Barry given that one. Out not as his, not hope, not
hope that's. Gonna happen.
That's it's an easy game people just listen to Barry.
That's how it works. Race 7 starts a late pick 5 here
going a mile on the 1 Turner there at Churchill Downs. 100K
and the Kitty here. This is a 12/5 starter allowance
race here we see a horse that loves to run second in
ambitiously placed at Churchill Downs but has since moved to
other tracks and been very, very successful as well.
Barry. I landed on the six here.
I think Jubal and Joni is a worthy 7 to 2 coming out of the
California tracks. This is an interesting one
because Ray Lu is going to get them out here for Jeff Mullins
that he knows from his time at Del Mar this past year and
certainly in the current meet. Claim for eight.
They run him in a 20. He wins the 20.
He's claimed back in that race out of the Sherman barn and goes
ahead and runs second in a $50,000 optional claimer there
against other Phillies out at Santa Anita go in the two turns.
I wonder if the one turn mile will help out here, but is 2 for
three lifetime at the distance? The only blemish on the record
is that second place finish. I thought the 11 was interesting
here too. Penn St. ran really well last
time, Barry, over the mile course.
So literally over this course that we're going to be in in a
$20,000 allowance, straight allowance, start allowance.
Excuse me here. I wonder if that's the kind of
company we're going to get here. Rafa Bejarano seems comfortable
with this horse. Last win did come over that mile
shoot at Ellis Park. And so I think we'll like the
one turn mile here at Churchill as well.
So on top, at least for me, Barry, I got 6 and 11.
Where'd you land? You kind of have to think that
the races at Churchill, you know, over their meet are
probably better than most. So yeah, I, I do like Penn St.
in this spot. It wouldn't be my top pick.
He's actually is more my second pick.
But yeah, he he definitely has the the the speed and the
running style to win a race like this.
But I went to Vino's Angel the 8 for the same reasons.
But this horse has been running at at a little bit better
company. It's again, it's hard to compare
because this horse has been running on synthetic at Presque
Isle coming into, you know, Churchill on the dirt one turn.
It's it's a world of difference. But speed wise, this horse fits.
And you know, if the pace kind of develops, like I think it is
going to, you know, with Tennessee Mom out, Tennessee
Moon out front kind of winging it and then everybody else
lining up behind them or trying to challenge that horse, you
might see enough pace in here for a horse like Vino's Angel to
come running late. Nice.
Yeah. And we've seen over the years,
you know, I've interviewed trainers who are who I think of
as turf trainers and they always talk about that dirt surface at
Churchill being one that horses can come off the synthetic or
come off the turf and really seem to not, it seems to not
bother them as much perhaps as other dirt courses.
So that's something to watch as as well, too.
Here, Bear. We'll see horses switching
surfaces as well, right? So some that have been, you
know, successful on dirt before and they're willing to try it
here for the check, but they've been running on turf, they've
been running on synthetic, that kind of thing.
You mentioned the synthetic at Presque Isle.
Is that a concern for you at all or you just looking at the form
essentially? No, that's not a concern.
I I think this horse fits Bill Mori had, you know, he he's,
he's a really, really good horseman.
Has a good eye for where to place them.
So I, I trust him in this spot because he, he moves horses in
and out of circuits like this all the time.
And, and I think he, he's got a good one here.
Just got to show it on on on Saturday.
Santos Andrew is aboard the the five literary in here for Tim
Eggleston. How about that coming down out
of Horseshoe Indianapolis, one against in an optional claimer
field in a 13,000 optional claimer last out was right there
over the mile course in a in a in an optional 40 before that
did win at the $36,000 allowance level before that.
So my long shot play here in this race is going to be Tim
Eggleston 5 Literary. It'll be interesting to see how
that horse runs. Did try the the dirt once at
Churchill Downs before up the track, but that was a long, long
time ago. She's five years old now.
Daughter of Tonalist, which was actually a favorite horse of
mine many years ago. I was one of those horses that I
enjoyed betting. I'm probably the only one.
Go ahead, see in this horse's form it it's like you wonder why
this horse doesn't run on dirt more.
Right. Well, I think sometimes it's
just where you can get carded, man.
And and you know. That's that's also true.
Say what you will about, you know, Horseshoe Indianapolis,
they're running for decent purses, but if you got to get in
on the turf, you just get in on the turf, right?
It's I think part of it is that thing.
But you're right, man, 3 for seven lifetime on the dirt, 2
for eight at the distance. I think that that that offers a
lot, a lot of value. And frankly, over a one mile
course, it's not like we're trying to figure out a mile and
a quarter race here. I think Santo Sanjour can get
the job done there for sure. Race 8 is another starter
allowance, of course. 5 1/2 furlong Sprint on the turf here.
We're running for $150,000. It's a $25,000 starter
allowance. And Barry one of these where
we've got some pretty short prices in here.
Final verdict comes in off an allowance win at Aqueduct under
Dylan Davis picks up Tyler for the mount here, and you know
there's going to be another one in hilarious affair, the 10.
I would lean in this race, frankly, in a different
direction. But where did you end up?
I ended up on the one balsa. I think this horse has a a good
running style for this particular race and I think this
horse might get overlooked a little bit and and that's why I
think you know, this is a really good spot.
The horse is actually coming into this race razor sharp and
and it's very versatile can be up on the lead can sit off it a
little bit. Lindy Wade should should really
to be able to put this horse wherever he wants and and and be
formidable. My price play is a horse that I
actually have on my wall here. Midday Image.
Well, it's 8 year old, but he's still running pretty decent
figures and running against better competition.
Dropping into this spot makes a lot of sense considering his
past and and where this horse has been running previously.
But this is a big drop in class for this horse and I wouldn't be
surprised if this one goes off. Maybe second or third choice.
OK, you know, and I almost made this one top pick too.
OK. It was really close between
those two horses. Yeah, you're right running in
higher level stuff both at Laurel, Keeneland, Saratoga for
sure. And so yeah, it I think the drop
into class here is absolutely the right way to describe him
dropping in. Man, I'm really hoping I have
the five on top here by the way, in final verdict.
So I do agree there, but man, I'm hoping the 13 draws here and
here Barry off the also eligible list because the move to turf
has been so good for Philo Bedeaux, 3 for four with a
second in four lifetime starts on the turf.
I think this is a horse that's absolutely ready for this.
Been running a Canterbury picks up Rafa Bejirano for this mount.
And I don't hate the outside post.
We had Travis Stone on the show last night and he even said,
look, with the the turf course is playing right now, you
actually want to be closing a little bit and frankly in the
middle of the track. Well, if you break from 13, I
guess where you're probably going to be middle of the track.
So frankly, I think it sets up really well for this horse who's
been running around a 56 and one last time out on firm go at
Canterbury. I think the turf course is going
to set up really, really well. That 13 draws in.
I think no one's going to be looking for an also eligible for
a, an Escobar for a Martin Escobar coming out.
He's got 4 starters all year. Give me that horseman that's AI.
Think you're going to get solid 2022 to 1 then.
I can tell you that you're probably going to get in this
race because the nine horse ran at Aqueduct.
Right. I saw the race, so I I know that
happened. I'm more hoping that this horse,
this horse has been training at Tampa.
I'm just hoping the horse shipped is what I'm saying.
I'm really I'm, you know, is, is that 13?
Grand, I think they would on the.
Grounds. Yeah, I would I.
Think they would because, you know, you know, obviously Tampa
is where the source is going to be based.
They haven't even started running yet.
So this might be a good situation for them to, you know,
maybe grab some dough before before the Tampa meat.
But I'm not really sure. And the reason I I, I looked at
this horse really closely and I'm just not sure where those
Canterbury races stack up. I agree.
I I have no idea. I mean, this horse could, could
easily run them off their off their feet, but I I'm just, I
was just not sure. Yeah, yeah.
I just, I, I, I noticed that switch to to turf went back
watched the last race was in the Brunel barn when he was running
those races. And I just, I, I think this is a
horse that's got a legit shot here on Saturday.
Should he have made the trip? But race 9 will start the late
pick 3 here. And this is another starter
allowance, of course, 7 furlongs on the dirt.
This is a 16K starter allowance running for $125,000 here.
And I think of all of the all of the races here, Barry, I think
this one has the clearest favorite in global sensation and
frankly the most deserving favorite of any of the races.
Is this one to try to play against or is this one maybe
that we key in? We know we're going to get hit a
little bit because a lot of people are going to bet this
horse. How would you play this sequence
with this horse? Yeah, I'm playing against this
horse. I.
Mean. It doesn't take much for me to
want to bet against a favorite and there's enough speed in
here, especially the horse to his outside panic is is pretty
good and very fast, and there's some others in here.
So I I think this pace is going to get hot and occupy global
sensation enough for other horses to have a chance.
Now my play would be the seven like a salt shaker, just for the
fact that this horse is going to sit right off that speed and and
ready to pounce, beat and get first run, which in most cases
in a race like this is the best move.
But I'm all but the other horse. My price play is the five keen
cat, and this horse is interesting from the standpoint
of should get a similar trip if good enough to like a salt
shaker. Being inside of that horse
probably makes a little bit of a difference too.
I like the workout on November 9th at Churchill for 48,
breezing from the gate 18 out of 160 that day and you're not
going to see, you know, lower level type claimers do that.
This horse is a little bit better than that and it showed
just hasn't gotten out of Iowa very much.
Likely the last race too. Was was a setup for this?
One, it's a prep, right? Exactly.
No question. So I I think they have the right
approach to to point towards this race.
They're going to give their best shot.
Whether they win or not is another story.
But I think this horses figures stack up and the class and
everything. So at 20 to one, definitely
worth a flyer. You know, my long shot play in
here is the two no easy days has been running at Laurel Park at a
similar distance. It's going to have to step up
and do an extra furlong here, but seems to not mind that.
It's another horse, Barry, that's going to try to sit third
or fourth position, try to move up.
What I love about this horse is it sees that long stretch at
Laurel all the time. Anyway, the long stretch of
Churchill Downs is not going to be unusual for this horse,
right? And so while I don't think this
horse ends up winning, I'm going to include this one in any exact
or trifecta play that I play because I do think this is the
kind of horse that picks off off the second spot and really does
amp up the payouts in that case, out of the Mackenzie bar, how
about that Axel Concepcion gets the ride there on no easy days.
The late double features the crown of the day.
This is the $35,000 starter allowance, $200,000 per smile
and an eighth starter allowance for race 10.
So if you've started for a claiming price of 35,000 or less
in the last two years, you qualify for this race horses
certainly that people probably remember out of the four-star
Dave this year money. Applies back for this one.
I went with a considerably longer shot here, Barry and I'll
start. I think hurry, hurry.
The 8 here is absolutely one to watch and this is going to be
one that's going to do his best running late but picks up Jose
Ortiz in this spot. And I love the move to Jose and
I think he's going to give this son of Accelerate who by the way
is still intact. And I think it's the kind of
horse that we can see come out of this race and maybe not in
the Clark this year, but maybe see him in some other sort of
Grade 3 type races, maybe at the fairgrounds, something like that
as we move forward. But give me Hurry Hurry, who has
won at the distance, one in a mile and three sixteenths at
Churchill Downs before, is not scared at all of any of this.
And if these other horses get out too fast, he's going to be
ready to pick up the pieces. So give me 8 to one all day on
the four. Hurry, hurry.
Yeah, no knocks on that one. I mean, this horse is, is looks
to be kind of improving a little bit, yes, correct.
We forget he's only four, right? I mean, it's not like, you know,
and when you get to this, this is a reminder that this is how
the sport naturally plays out. If you just let horses race,
they get better as they get older, right?
And so it's fun to watch a horse like Hurry Hurry because if he
picks this off, like I said, we might see him in the mine shaft
or see him in something like that in the fairgrounds, you
know, a race like that down in New Orleans.
Yeah, I hope so. I mean, I don't know, you'd like
to see these horses that that kind of come out of the ranks,
you know, kind of mixing it up with the claimers then move up.
And that's how it used to be. You know, you used to try to
clear conditions before you moved up into the steaks
company, stuff like that. It's always good to see those
those throwback types. I don't know what to do with
Bourbon Day in this spot. Of course, it's probably going
to take all the money that you ever want to see, but got a
insanely perfect trip last time. And I think the the buyer figure
says that too, 96, which is way better than what this horse was
doing. And I'm not sure that that will
hold up. I, I, I just don't see it
happening. I'm definitely betting against
that. One horse I would say would be
my top pick would be the 11th surface to air.
If you eliminate that September 2nd race on the turf.
This horse is just as good as anybody in here.
And I think that muddied up the form just enough to where this
horse is 8:00 to 1:00 in the morning line, not to mention the
the kind of nondescript sort of connections.
And I know they, they kind of hang out in the Mid-Atlantic,
but this horse has been traveling around and I think
they, they know they have a good horse.
I mean, when they claim this horse out of that maiden claimer
at Keeneland, I mean immediately just turned around and and
dividends everywhere. And I think they they actually
went a little bit maybe, maybe too long is a mile an eighth,
but I'm willing to gamble on that in this spot at that price.
I mean, dropping out of steaks company here, getting back into,
you know, his kind of class. I I'm with you on that 8 to 1
might be a little short for me, but my guess is Barry, just
based on, you know, just based on connections, like you said,
bourbon day is going to get all the money.
I think you're going to get better than 8:00 to 1:00 on that
horse by the time you get to to to post time.
I think the five in here is really interesting as well.
Auto Glide, Julian Leperoux gets them out here and I don't know,
Barry, there's always a track every year where I go, man,
horse is coming out of that track.
It always catches me off guard and Delaware is that track this
year for some reason this horse won two back in the Battery Park
at Delaware Park over a mile and a 16th.
So we're going a 16th of a mile further.
They tried him in the in the the deputed testimony.
Excuse me at Laurel the next time out.
I think he was just tired, man. I think he needed some time off.
They gave him the freshening. He comes back in the spot.
That is not a great angle for for trainer Greg Compton.
But if that horse is all fresh, if those workouts at Oak Lawn
are not indicative of how fresh he actually is, I think Julian
Leperou is the right jock for him to sit just off the pace and
make a press when he gets to the stretch.
What do you think Bourbon Day goes off at in this race?
Just because it is Brad Cox and he ran in 96 last time.
I mean, is Brad Cox in Kentucky? It it you got to think this
horse is going to be about, you know, six to five And I I'm with
you. I like auto glide that that's my
price play in here. Of note, the jockey, trainer
combo. The three races that that
Leparoux won with this horse are the only three times he's ridden
for Greg Compton. It's amazing.
I know it. I mean, you got to think this
horse has to be a little bit live in this spot just based off
that alone, you know, and you'll probably get your price because,
you know, Greg Compton isn't a household name, but he's a very
good horseman, gets it done at 20% most of the time.
Why not? Yeah, a guy who goes 30 for 143
knows exactly what he's doing and where he's placing his
horses. So agree with you on that.
And by the way, that horse is carrying the maximum weight in
this race because it's won this year, right?
That is a giveaway sometimes in these handicapped races.
Who's had the best success this year?
And auto glide in this race, believe it or not, would fall
into that category. The Get Out race is race 11:00
tomorrow mile on a 16th on the Matt Wind Turf course.
By the way, Barry, have no idea if you got to watch last night.
Cracked my ass up, had Travis Stone on.
Love having Travis on. I only bother him like twice a
year. He's a busy man, you understand
me? He's busy making super effective
bets in the middle of the night in Japan and all these kinds of
things. And and he comes out last night
and I'm like, do you ever refer to the turf course as the Matt
Wynn turf course? And he stares at me and he goes,
Is it called the Matt Wynn turf course is.
That what it is. And I was like, oh, shoot, did I
just what? Oh, no.
And I was like, maybe I heard that, but it wasn't really it.
And then I look it up right on Churchill Dolls website, the the
renovated Matt Wynn turf course, blah, blah, blah.
And I was like, oh, Travis, I'm sorry brother, I'm not trying.
I'm not trying to get anybody in trouble.
That's not what we're doing here.
The worst. Got him, you understand, got
him. He texts me after the show.
So I think we're OK. But man, I felt bad for a second
by on the 16th on that Matt Wynn turf course for this starter
allowance. That is a $25,000 starter
allowance for three-year olds and up, and you had to have
started for a claiming price of 25K in the last two years.
Barry, this is a fun, fun, fun race.
I like a horse on a quick turn around if he draws in.
This race is the epitome of what this day is about, I think.
And it's it's good that this is the last race because it's very
competitive. All these horses have have been
around the block a few times. You know, you got Oh yeah, Cadet
core 32 lifetime starts, twelve wins.
I mean, I know eight wins on huge big leagues, 30 to one
here. So yeah, it's.
A great point by you cadet core is 20 to one and that horse is
1/12 of 32 lifetime starts. That's awesome.
That's great. I know that that I mean that
this whole field is is just battle tested and this is the
kind of race you you like to see.
And we used to get them a lot more often, especially during
the winter, you know, like this time of year from like November
to February, We we get these races periodically on cards, you
know, and and they're always fun and always, you know, kind of
yield some prices. Yeah.
But I thought the 10 had merits a real good chance in here.
Journeyman. Yeah, sure.
You know, in a tough race, I think running style and
versatility is why I like journeyman.
Not to mention, you know, ran a really, really huge race last
time, was probably overmatched, outran his odds for sure.
And I think he's going to do that again, although this time
he probably won't be the, you know, a great price, but he
won't be bad. I think this is a real lukewarm
favoritism kind of race where the favorite might be 5:00 to
2:00-ish, maybe 2 to one, which is lukewarm these days, 2 to
one. The way how the betting works
and everything, where you get horses at one to two all the
time. Used to see it like once a year,
probably about 1520 years ago. Now you see it twice on a card
or maybe even more. But I think that one merits a
good shot. And then the price play would be
the three title forces. Nice, kind of the same thing.
A little bit of versatility can be placed wherever Beta Rano
does really well. On this turf course.
Funny enough, so I'll trust him at a decent price in a race
that's kind of wide open. It's it's sort of wild to think
of Rafa Bayerano the three, three years in a row wins the
riding title in Southern California.
And he's like, I just want my kids.
No, but like, and but he wants his kids to be in the same house
all the time. So he moves to Kentucky and he
just takes whatever he can get. You know what I mean?
He's doing great. But you're right.
I mean, it's where he's the guy that you can watch and go, OK,
he's on this horse and that horse has some ability to close
or whatever it might be. He's going to at least give the
horse a good trip. Yeah, he's hungry.
That's that's exactly right man. My price point here was actually
good governance. The 11 got a freshening last out
at Keeneland was charging at the end is definitely going to be in
good form for Anna Navarrette in this one.
Santos Andre does pick up the mount again.
This horse last two times out at Horseshoe Indianapolis did win
its races. One in an optional claimer at
the $40,000 level went over to Ellis Park tried to qualify for
those races in the in the on Kentucky down preview day had to
drop Lasix didn't like it gets Lasix back here after that race
at Keeneland and that was in a non 3 lifer high level Irish
aces was in there. Laparos ended up winning the
race. This is not that kind of level.
So I think that the 11 in here has a really, really, really
legit shot. And another auto also eligible
that I hope draws in is on the grounds at Churchill, which is
St. in the city. The 13 Francisco Arrieta is
going to get them out here. That horse comes in off of a win
over the mile and a 16th course there was in the lead, lost the
lead and then rallied for the win there.
And I think before that, I'm not at all sure that they were going
to place this horse in this kind of company, but that was in the
high level allowance company. I think if that horse draws in
Barry, I love the quick turn around from trainers if they're
if they're just convinced, hey, this horse is going right now.
He needs to get back out there. That's my kind of play, man, And
I love that kind of long shot 15 to one that horse draws in you
best damn well be be sure good governance and Satan the city
are going to be in an exact or trifecta play for me.
How will you play this card tomorrow, Barry?
I know you do some shows with our guy Chase over on the OTB
and you guys do the the 100 bucks and aqueduct on a Friday,
right, That kind of thing. You know, how do we play
aqueducts? How do we get that that budget a
day like tomorrow, full fields, all that kind of stuff.
I'm a pick three guy. I love them, but might be it
might be an exact kind of day. It might be a trifecta kind of
day. What does Barry Spears look for
on a day like this where you know the fields are going to be
full and frankly those those one to two horses probably aren't
going to pop up too much? Yeah, this is this is kind of
Breeders' Cup esque. It really is.
And the way you have to approach it because you know, you could
get prices on horses that are, are real legit and you could
send your day around that. And that's probably what I'm
going to do is, is focus in on a couple of these double digit
prices and kind of work my way through those races, you know,
double s and pick threes in and out and then win bets and, you
know, exotics vertically with those same horses and you hit
one. That's right.
That's all she wrote. That's right, tomorrow's a day
you hit two bets, you're going to be good.
That's. Right, exactly.
That's that's what I used to do. I used.
To. Go.
I swear to God, when I was a kid, I was barely able to drive,
had had, you know, a little bit of money in my pocket and I'd go
to the track, get somebody to bet for me and just one or two
races and that's it. And or I'd sit there, wait, make
the bet, hit and go home. That's right.
Take your buddy and run. His name is Barry Spears.
You find him at Urban Handicapper odds Twitter for
sure. Look man, you are due for a
horse racing happy hour trip next year.
The lazy one is to just meet you at Tampa.
Where should we drag you instead?
Do you want to go to? You want to do some Hot Springs?
You want to do NOLA? What are you feeling this year?
Either one, I, I actually, my nephew lives in Arkansas and
he's like, oh, you need to come down.
And I was like. Really.
OK, I, I'll be very honest, I'm using Matt Dinerman to get into
all these places, so I'd never been to the Haskell before.
I just, you know, you drop Matt Dinerman's name.
You get. Champagne, caviar or whatever.
The opposite of that is Matt Dinerman.
He is gold, dude. He's money.
I love that guy. I got to tell you, Barry, have
you seen the picture? Dude of I interviewed a head of
Breeders' Cup Saturday at Del Mar and he's got this hat now
that you could tell our dude bro, he dropped like AG on this
hat and it's just it gives me so much.
I love watching dudes like Dinnerman come up man, because
they just he's so he's such a normal.
He's just a cool normal dude. That's exactly right.
I love watching that stuff and he was at Del Bars where he fell
in love with racing, so my man was in his element.
He was hanging out with his pops, like all the stuff, dude,
It was great. The best thing about Matt is you
would never know what I mean. You would always think the guy
has the best day of his life every day.
Every day. That's right.
Yep. That's right, you know, and,
and, and I you just got to appreciate people like that with
that kind of energy that that sustains, you know?
Sport with so many people that are looking for the bad, right I
mean. Yeah, you know, and he's such a
positive guy, you know, just even talking to him on social
media, stuff like that, he's just a real good energy.
Like you know, good energy is always always good to have and
always hard to find. For sure.
All right, man. Well, which of your long shot
picks did you feel? Did you have one that you were
like, this is it? This is the one I'm really going
to try to press. Yeah, hold on, I think.
No, you're fine. I know.
I'm throwing kind of throwing that at you with that one.
Go from Dinnerman to whichever your favorite bet was going to
be for the day tomorrow. You should have seen this hat.
I'll send you the picture, man. That's great.
Charter Oak. Actually I like quite a.
Bit which race was that? In the 6th.
OK, cool. OK, because.
I, I because I think honestly, the 8 horse in the yes, I'm a
beast is is probably the fastest horse in this race.
I've watched this horse right a billion times like his whole
career. They're gonna have their hands
full and and I think that pace is just gonna get ridiculous.
There you go all. Right, well, he is Barry Spears.
He is the urban handicapper, the sniper, whatever you want to
call him. We call him Barry here on the
Horse Racing Happy hour. Thanks for joining us, Barry.
I did want to brag a little bit since you are a a former college
basketball player. My 12 year old, also named
Louie, hit his first in game 3 pointer this.
Week Buckets, Louie buckets, Little Louie Bucket.
Yeah, that's, that's, that's. He's one of these kids.
He just stands outside and bombs threes.
He goes one for 10. You caught a gun.
You know, he's he's he's he's Reggie Miller.
How about that? Yeah.
There you go. Hey.
We're ready. That's.
It I wish you were the game. The game's over.
The game is done, Little Louie. We're done here getting buckets.
All right, well, it is time to get out of here.
Appreciate you, Barry. This has been a random Friday
edition of the Horse Racing Happy Hour.
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