Clark Preview

Ice. Alright.

Welcome to a very special LIVE edition of the horse-racing.

Happy hour. I am joined by Justin Bieber

about today. Hey Megan Megan left us.

No, not for you. She big-time this for Lexington

today, I'm Megan Megan had some other some other things and we

wanted to get a show out for the Clark specifically.

So this will be an abbreviated thing, but you also want to try

out some technology things to see how this going live on

Twitter. Works out for us because that's

probably where we interact with most of our friends.

Louis, where do we We work in our fans, find us on Twitter at

horse happy or on Twitter so if you're watching right now it's

your likely a subscriber already but we are found in any of those

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racing as a topic on Twitter you might be seeing as right now

perhaps for the first time so welcoming and I also will be

uploading this to the podcast reading.

So if you're listening to podcast you want to find

Twitter. I mean this might if this goes

well this could be something we do it, right?

I mean so we'll just try to try it out and see you know I like I

like these techie challenges like Figure these out.

Ha ha. I love that.

By the way, that's fantastic. I do love a Mashers.

All right. The old little Louisville.

Masters. How about as bad as you'll ever

see? How was your Thanksgiving?

It was okay. We um, we ended up doing carry

out from a local restaurant, just to kind of support our

friends in the restaurant industry.

Here in Kentucky that are taking a beating this year, of course,

with all the restrictions and different things.

But you know that it was frankly it ended up being really great

so I'm glad we did it. So that was really nice guy but

you guys you know it was nice. It was Was the first time I

cooked a Thanksgiving meal at our house in a long time.

So people who don't listen to the Show often, I'm very much in

the person who does the cooking in our household, in my wife, my

wife does like the handiwork in the yard work.

So she just literally self renovated, our kitchen so and

it's 90% done. What she's really good at

getting things 90% done. And I'm hopeful that we're gonna

get that extra 10% and get it all the way finished but I you

know, I put roasted turkey. Big Green Egg and had a cigar

while I was going and maintenance myself.

An old-fashioned wood dinner was pretty good.

I had wild turkey with my turkey and you know, the desserts we

prepared way too much food, which is, I guess the thing you

do, you know, how to idea? We got leftovers this weekend so

but I definitely 100% miss being at Churchill Downs.

It was really difficult for me to kind of not be there and you

know, just what I'm kind of in one way.

I'm kind of glad that they did not have any indoor dining

stuff, because then it's like not.

Our streak is not broken, it's just paused, right?

So, right. And you know, the kids were all

loving my turkey and all that kind of stuff, and loving

dinner, and that's it. So what do y'all want to do next

year? You want to do this again next

year? If you want to go back to church

out things like like before I could finish my sensor.

I go back to Churchill Downs and so I'll good.

Okay, yeah. I mean they love it's such an

awesome day. You know, traditionally before

therby was a thing in the night racing.

This Thanksgiving was that Third, biggest Day, Louis on the

calendar Behind The Oaks in the derby and correct.

I kind of always made me. Wonder the Clark to me is on the

wrong day, the Clark should be on Thanksgiving Day.

Not the Friday after what do you think about that?

Clark should be on Thanksgiving Day.

I like that they give Thanksgiving Day to the

Phillies, it doesn't bother me. Okay well I'm just I mean is the

clerk. The clerk is the biggest race

they have in the fall meet in November for sure.

Yeah and I just think that it whether I don't know, it's

probably one of the it's definitely a top 10 Race to have

Churchill Downs. Maybe a top probably number 6 or

5 if I had to guess. Yeah.

It's a Derby Day. Level race, for sure.

Yeah, it's yeah. Well, it's the and it's the what

the Foster is in the, in the summer, right?

So and then you get some of those maybe think it's behind

the Foster just because, oh, absolutely says, have decided to

go away for, you know, for the down to Florida or Arkansas

whatever. But but no, I frankly, this

year, the fields better for for the Clark that it was for the

Foster. I agree with that actually yeah.

So that works out. It does work out.

I just I feel like you know, you're going to have the crowd.

Crowd on the Thursday then you should have the bigger race on

the Thursday so and traditional years, you know, right?

So anyway we're going to talk today, we're going to break.

It's just gonna be altered and we're basically, losing are

getting ready to head out to the track and then and and death.

So not going to church on. Just I guess place my favor

because I get to go today, which I I've been to the clerk before.

I'm pretty sure. But I mean, it's not like, it's

something I normally do. It's a lot of folks are Derby.

Many of us. Don't go to the track.

To back days. That's right.

Right. Yeah.

So we're going to do a late pick for, is that sound good?

Yeah, that's what I hate a capsule, right?

Starting with race eight, and if we can get pics from million, we

can chew him out, but I don't even know if she's even looked

at it yet, to be honest with you.

So I was making is making on the air today.

I don't think she is she's off today, right?

She's not. She's working for her for her

own private company. Everybody first a dead horse.

Yep. Yep.

Okay. So, Ray st.

Louis is in 87, thousand dollar amount race.

It's a mile and a 16th on the dirt.

So, who do you like in this race?

Yeah, it's an interesting race because it's for Phillies three

and up, but essentially non to lifers.

And so, you write you, you get a lot of horses where you look at

the numbers. And you think, man, no one's

knows really want in here, or what have you.

And so, you just kind of got to get over that.

There's a lot of handicapper love in this race for the 10.

Serafina second time off the layoffs here, after being

wrapped up on October 21st at Keeneland speed figure say yes,

I just don't see the whole package with her.

She what? One at this distance it with an

84 speed figure. But this is more serious company

than she's been in before and she'll have to be at the

absolute top of her game to compete.

So I'm more interested in the lightly race to villanelle and

see if she could step up into winning company which one last

time out at the maidan level. See if she's ready for this

bigger, step up in this race, plenty to like, with her.

And if floor on, can regain his previous form, it shouldn't be a

problem for on. By the way, this week has not

been great. It's been interesting.

They'll be Something to watch today, maybe in the earlier

races to see if flow can get back in that Rhythm.

But so far not so much this week after we watched him absolutely

dominate over Derby weekend. And then I have a really good

weekend over Breeders Cup as well.

The, for storm at sea, seems to have like the jockey change to

Rafa bejarano and if anyone's watching closely this, meet, our

office taken horses and double-digit odds, and just

peppering the board. So he's actually having a really

nice meat right now. So, definitely Gotta play with

the four horse huh? Yeah something to watch with the

for I think it's an include here.

Even possibly in your longer. Pick for tickets horse, I could

jump up and win here the six tempers Rising lost a market

research, who ran a pretty well yesterday in the grade to with

the Phillies and so leper, who knows this track?

I think that tempers Rising could be a factor here as well.

So I'm going to include the 1, 2 4 and 6.

In my ticket, I might even add some other horses here because I

do have a single later on and so 1246 is my absolute a baseline

ticket for this. Race.

So as the so what we're going to do today to is I'm going to give

kind of more the Casual better and Louise going to give more

the handicapped or. So I'm going to look at this and

tempers Rising again. If we go with our class, going

to class to me, there's no more, there's no other horses better

class than tempers Rising. Although, when it comes to the

Winner's Circle, only hit the Winner's Circle once and so that

would make me a little nervous about whether or not they should

be tie. I like your storm at sea pick

and I the only other lock shot that I would kind of throughout

Although I think this horse is probably a step below, would be

mad honey, just because it has two wins at Churchill Downs, and

likes the track one last time I would Churchill Downs, but this

is a pretty big step up in company for that.

But if I was just looking for like a long shot to play,

because I do think the favorites are vulnerable in this race.

Matt's honey is the wise guy horse that people like for this

race, by the way. So you're not alone on that.

The workouts make a lot of sense here, right?

And and you get Corey Landry who is is having a reasonably good

meet here at 13%, which is good. And this is the kind of horse

that Corey wins on right where we all go.

Oh gosh. Why didn't I could coordinate my

ticket? Right.

It's so I do. I don't think the eight Matt's

honey is about inclusion here. We're going to see some more

class in the ninth race at Churchill Downs.

It's one mile on the dirt so they'll be out of the Chute one

turn, 80,000 are optional, claiming race allowance often.

We actually have signalman in this race who ran in the

Preakness? Not this year but last year, ha

Creak hustles in this race. I mean there's this is actually

like A race where there's a lot of people that you're going to

mention and then you're probably going to horse find a horse

that, if you're a horse person, you know, this horse but there's

a lot of action on the 8th looking at bikinis that seems

that like, is the overwhelming favorite in this race.

And that's my single today is looking at bikinis.

I think that second time up this year off the layoffs here, Chad

Brown tilaka, folio knees, hitting it 30% at this meat.

I mean, he's on unbelievable fire right now.

So I'm going to trust Chad Browns, got this horse.

Ready to go, came back out, ran out.

Reasonably good 94, speed figure after 10 months off all this

horse, has his class and speed. I went back and watched the

cigar mile from last year just to get a sense of this horse

scar, my lad aqueducts next week.

Actually, but it is a 1 turn mile there.

That was won by maximum-security last year.

That was kind of his, his cap to is really great three-year-old

season last year. They list True Timber is the

third place horse, but essentially right behind him by

a neck was looking at bikini. So that's what kind of Gasps

this horse was in just in December last year and so I'm

going to trust that this horse is actually getting back to that

class level and of classical class in this race.

I'm going to single the eight so that I can spread in something

like the previous race and race 8 where I agree with you that a

lot of different horses can win that race.

Meaning, if I'm going to save some money then I got a single

somewhere. I'm going to look for looking at

bikini sir. Yeah I actually had that same

note actually had looking at bikinis as its if I was going to

do a pick for that. I was going to try to single

with looking at bikinis, right? You know my biggest the biggest

the biggest I think for me is never a searchable for and you

just never know how horses are going to take to the track at

Churchill Downs. And I'm hoping that hopefully

that signalman and ha Creak hustle because those are names,

I think that a lot of people recognize will get a lot of

money and maybe we get better than two to one, but we'll see

on that. Of course, I'm interested to see

Sigmund back here because he ran in that, that Mile and 5/8.

Erase that we were at Keeneland for my Breeders Cup day and I

just think that distance wasn't a go for him.

I'm interested to see if shortening back up to one turn

and going. A mile is better for him because

the horse, I don't know what Kenny was trying there.

I understand when they try horses shorter, I usually like

horses stretching out more than I like horses.

Shortening up, but single men in the spot.

Could be something huh, Creak hustle I just don't you feel

like you've been burned by this horse over and over over.

Yeah. So I don't want to besmirch the

horse because it's really, I mean, really terrific horse and

turn and be fully some nice job with him.

Three wesen 21 starts to Lifetime.

So yeah, that's it, right? But In kind of jumping up and

down and class show running in this kind of level, and then

running in into in great company.

But I do think that looking to bikinis is the class here.

If the form, is there for the horse, which by the way, like I

said, I 94 speed figure coming off of that.

Kind of layoffs tells me that this horse is ready to run.

Has run at lots of different tracks.

Has great speed figures at all of them.

So I'm going to trust it look in a bikini as my single day.

Yeah, I mean the only other horse that I would think is

worth a mention. Here is the One Thirst for Life

who did run third in the ack-ack.

And again, if I was looking for maybe some exotic place here,

whatever else or just a longer shot to hit the board, I did

kind of like the thirst for Life pic here as well.

He was 14 times at Churchill Downs, but again, knowing these

are, these are horses who have been around the around the track

a couple times. I mean, 35 starts lifetime for

thirst for life. So there you go.

Yeah. Any picture Chris Landeros

backup which could be a good move for.

I'm actually absolutely. Okay.

Now the star of the show is the Clark handicap.

It is the Milan. Eighth on the Dirt for

three-year-olds and up, this is the Crown Jewel of the November

meet, as weak as it comes to a close.

And I think this field is really interesting.

First off Louis, this is a great one race.

Is it a great one race? It's absolutely great one.

Okay, I will say it's 1 - oh interesting, you think, okay,

now, the reason why you got horses who have run at the grade

one level run, but not a lot of one at the great one level,

especially recently. So I, you know, I think, You got

a lot of horses there that have kind of our names.

Obviously, we're going to, we're going to know, but I don't know

if we've seen a lot of success at the grade one level.

And is that fair code of honor is 12 and a half million dollars

in his life. Sure, absolutely.

But has done. Jack parfait is 11.8 million

dollars in his life. Yes.

Mr. Freeze is a 1.6 million dollar earner 0 and L is one 1.3

million dollars. By my standards is 11.8 million

dollars in 12, grade one this year, or And that's what a great

to this year. Scuse me.

Yeah, no-one's got a great one win this year though, right?

If I'm not mistaken, probably not in this field.

Yeah, and frankly like a horse like silver, prospector who's

12:45 in this race in the 14th. Lat, it has won, seven hundred

thirty, five thousand dollars for a 92 speed figure at

Churchill Downs, last time out. So I'm just saying, I think

there's a lot of classrooms Trace, feels pretty wide open to

me. I do have a longer shot as my

favorite here but we're you have Mike, you kind of tease me off.

Are that you felt like there was a horse a that's going to jump

up. Okay, well again II do think

that this race sets out for a long shot to potentially hit the

board. And there is one long shot that

I do. Like, now I'm going to say that

if I'm playing a pig for ticket or a pick three ticket here, I'm

including a release Maximus. I'm including mr.

Freeze, and I am including by my standards, but the fourth horse

that I'm going to include is the one horse craft daddy, which I

am not. And the reason why again.

He's 2 for 2 lifetime at Churchill Downs.

So he's taking a huge step up here.

There's Question. But this is a horse that was at

one time. Trained by Brad Cox, Brad, Cox.

This thought this horse could be a grade one horse spent the

majority of his career on the turf.

Well, since Kenny, May Peak took this horse over there.

His first race out was, was on a soft Turf?

Didn't do. Well, his second entry, he was

in a listed Stakes race That was supposed to be on the turf,

taking off the turf rain, on the dirt and they figured out.

Oh, this horse can run on the dirt as only, right 11.

With Bryant Hernandez Hernandez and board.

Bryant Hernandez has taken this horse to two straight trips to

the Winner's Circle with two straight.

The last two trips at Churchill Downs.

I think that they, this horse is just really making momentum in

the right direction. And I think that we could see

crafty daddy, step up, because in, especially I'm not scared

Away by the Fayette Stakes. Start, just because there's some

horses that like, Churchill that don't like, England.

I mean, that's, we talk about that all the time, so and I also

thought that they made him move too early in that race.

And he made a big-time move to get up towards the front in the

middle of the back stretch and that's and that race but I you

know that's that's that is my surprise pick if I'm to taking a

long shot chance now mr. Freeze I think he's the horse

that's getting besmirch the most here and it's taking the exact

steps that Tom's d'etat took last year one, the one, the

Fayette steaks. And then came back and won the

Clark and I think you have to include mr.

Freeze, obviously we both like it Release Maximus.

And just as a future star of this sport, hopefully that's

going to race for a long time. Owen, Dale came in the money in

this race last year, probably, I just don't think he could do it

again and then, you know, what do we have with by my standards?

You know, it's by my standards, you know, step up and get a win

here or not, you know. Where's this format right now?

Right? Because of in the classic, he

wasn't there, right? Right.

You didn't fire at all. And so yeah, I for horses here.

You've talked me into the one, by the way, I'm going to include

in my longer ticket. Did I do a good job?

Yes. I do you think by my standards

can win here? If he regains previous form?

He'll it seems to like the track, right?

So that that's a big thing. Mr. Freeze I totally agree with

you is coming out of the dirt mile.

That's two terms at Keeneland. We're back to one turn here.

I think that's better for You're free.

Yep I do actually think this code of honor can win here,

okay, and he's actually one or two turns and has plenty of

class in speed, but my pick is a really is Maximus.

And he was my trip at Keeneland in the Fayette he went from 10

to 12 5 to 2 because too many people listen to this show and

if Ricardo doesn't make a terrible decision, going into

the final turn in the Fayette Aurelius Maximus, doesn't just

when he wins by a couple of lengths and he's probably four

to one in this. Race.

And so, my sense is, you can get a release Maximus today for six

or seven to one. It's gonna be a creme Right,

Place Bedford. Oh, yeah, yeah, and absolute

must include remember. This is a son of pioneer.

The Nile his mom is is by AP Indy.

This is a royally bred horse. That just hasn't been healthy.

It's great to see that. He is because Steve is running

him twice now or three times. Now, just here in the fall, I

think he's coming into his own this year.

I think next year is going to be his absolute break out.

Your, I think this is where he makes his first big statement.

So I do think that he'll win here.

I am fascinated to see Bode Express in this race.

I I wonder if he jumps out to the front and causes a frenetic

Pace at the front, which makes me think that horse like a

really is Maximus is going to be a terrific spot to pick up the

pieces. And so I'm 512 387 I'm going to

add the one as my fifth horse there.

I wouldn't be surprised if any of those four horses wins but I

can't get past the eighth one price on a Mac.

So that's I mean it's a great price on that.

And again what If my favorite bet the win place show bet.

I mean, take that all day long, right?

So we're going to finish up the late pick for with the 11th of

course, they throw these kind of races in there to make this pick

for almost impossible to hit the maiden special weight 244,

maidens Phillies and Mayors three year olds and up and Louis

I hate these races, six furlongs on the dirt.

So it's a 1 turn Sprint and you got horses who are very lightly

race versus you. Horses who have been around the

block like shell-shocked and in just never really been able to

find their groove or even even a horse that to me that now stir

puts in here. That's really interesting in in

Spady Cheryl and I just can't figure out a Spady Cheryl is

able to run with whatever pack she's in but she's just never

going to break away, right? And actually get a win or not.

So what's your what's your take on this field?

So I'm including the for I think she's absolutely got a shot

here. I think that the past

performances show, you know, a couple of Especially recently,

the horse has been hitting the board to the last three times.

I I though I have three horses here, that I really like my main

girl. The one is my top play here.

I think you can watch those numbers and the improvement from

first race to Second. Race is really important here,

even though this horse hasn't hit the board yet, we're going

to keep Robbie albarado. I mean, kidding me pick this

year. I mean, goodness, gracious.

And my sense is that this horse will improve and has a real shot

here at 6:00 for a long time. I do think the, for, Us.

But spiting Sherrill is a play here just because I don't know

about the other horses in this company.

And so my hope my hope is that, you know, you get a, it's not

gonna be a ton of value their specials, probably one of the

two or three favourites but I do think as a serious shot and then

I do think the the favorite favorite Silver Bell of the

seven is a must play. Here.

Does have an 89 speed figure at Oaklawn.

This year is second time off the layoffs here, actually.

And so this might actually be a case where very rarely and made

in racist you get this kind of Break and then you get a second

time up for a horse, get corollary.

Hopefully we keep mentioning him.

Hopefully that's a good day. So it's worth mentioning so much

but you do get Corey later, hear horses, run second, three times.

No, shame in run and second when you're a maiden and so I am

going to trust a 14 and 7 here might spread out a little bit

more, but currently, as my ticket is constituted Five

Horses. One horse Five Horses three

horses 37:54, the pick for, I think that's not crazy,

especially if a horse like really is Maximus.

Win, The park I think you'll get to Brenda's just tremendous

value on the on the pick for even with the single in raised

nine. Alright, so I hope it's a great

day at the track. Yeah.

And you know, I'm looking forward to it's gonna be a

little cold but that's okay. And even looked at the weather

and like, Miss just sunny outside, so I just assume.

Oh, it's gonna be high 50. Let's go, sonny, let's go.

Yeah for a michigander. That's like that's summer,

right? I'm sorry.

But for late how many how many crappy thanksgivings have you

attended at Churchill Downs? It's always another bag.

You just never know if you're going to get a cold or

50-somethings. Yeah.

As pretty as actually, a pretty average day here in Louisville

and the big news coming out Church of the hands of this

week. Louis was that they're going to

really invest in that Turf course and try to I mean I think

I got a bearish this year. I think you got a to I think

they. Absolutely.

I think they should be embarrassed frankly.

Yeah, yeah. And and they're going to correct

it because there really was no reason why that Turf course

should have been in bad shape. So frankly, you know, those A

dates used to actually, I'll do people remember.

They used to go to Turfway right for Lisa, Rinna September.

Obviously they've moved those dates to The Churchill for a

couple of weeks. I'm wondering if they just over,

ran a little bit too much on the turf there.

But frankly, I think in other years, they run on the turf

course but because we are so cognizant and so mindful of

fatalities and injuries to horses, they said you know what,

we're not worth it. And not only are we not off

today, we're off the rest of the meat, we're going to cancel Turf

graded Stakes which they did. And you know what?

That's why kudos to them. Yeah enough.

That's a honestly a good enough reason for me so absolutely.

Yeah. So I'm excited because I do

think there could actually widen the course a little bit, they

talked about right? So it's incredible is people can

see in my background here, the Hedge here.

That means the hedges are actually going to have to move

just crazy to think, right? Because you can't go, they can't

go this way, right? They came into the dirt-track,

they have to leave that. So it'll be interesting to see

what they end up doing. And last thing I want to ask

because we are giving get the return of King Guillermo here

really soon next week. Ian, cigar, my would, the Clark

have been a good spot for King Mo.

No, this is our miles of perfect spot for him.

I'm just disappointed that he was at Churchill Downs for like

eight years and never, never got to see him.

Wrote a love to see him today, but I do think the field at

Aqueduct next week, will be more manageable for him.

Absolutely, and the end of mile distance.

I think also is probably well, there's a good spot.

So yeah, I agree. The one turn I think is gonna be

really good for ya. Alright.

So we will you Lou and I will be out of the track today, you

know, if you see us around if you're out there.

Students come by and yams are open.

You guys want to hang out and come say hi please.

We'd love to see when we have when we did that.

Last time we had we got to meet a lot of great people and it was

awesome and you know just smell my cigar maybe that's if you

want to try to find us or send us a DM.

So we'll see you guys later. Take