Dan Illman ahead of KY Derby 150

How about that? Dan Elman, he joins.

US wait on. Hang on, hang on.

We got to present this segment. You are presented by a plastic

surgeon. Dan, how about that?

Bay's Plastic surgery and Med Spa, new location on Exley in

Saint Matthew's beautiful facility.

We were out there for the Derby draft this year.

Dan Elman, a veteran of the Derby draft and of course our

Road to the Preakness shows. I'm stunned you came on the show

after your old Hilltop award came down.

Congratulations. Congratulations.

I wanted to thank you very much. I wanted to add a little bit of

gravitas to this show. It's usually a bit of nonsense

now. You know the old Hilltop Award

is a is a very meaningful award. You've had Howard Cosell, you've

had Jim McKay, you've had Jack Whitaker, you've had Joe Hirsch

and now you've had Dan Newman, all big names in the industry.

It's. It's a list of list.

No, no, that's a list of list for sure.

And we appreciate Dan jumping on.

Dan, when you were not on the show, I said nice things about

you. I will not do that.

Now what is your what's your favorite race on the two days of

Oaks and Derby here at Churchill Downs?

I actually like the Churchill Downs stakes, the Sprint race

tomorrow. I think there's a chance we

might get some prices in that race and isn't that what this is

all about, Trying to score with a big price?

You know, Zozos is going to be the favorite in that race.

We haven't seen him since the Breeders Cup dirt mile.

I wonder if Fred Cox is maybe using this as a prep for the Met

Mile. The worst that interests me in

there is the 10 Gun pilot. This is a horse showed some

ability last year as a three-year old.

They tried to get him on the Derby trail.

They ran him into tough spots like the PAC day mile and the

Woody Stevens. And then these top connections.

Steve Asmussen took him off of the layoff.

He's come back off of the layoff with two big victories, a really

good second last time out in the Eclipse stakes.

I just think this gun runner Colt is coming into his form at

the right time. He's 12:50 in the morning line.

I'm going to play gun pilot. Dan, are you impressed that I

have Zozos on Top and Gun Pilot Second or am I just hanging out

with you and getting better at this?

Is that what's happening? No, no, no.

I was. I'm impressed that you were able

to smoke out the gun pilot's merit.

I'm a little bit disappointed that you're kind of chalked out

there with Zozo. That's a.

Big. Bear I know that you and you and

Brad Cox, it's like a love covenant.

And I noticed that whenever Brad has a horse to the race, you're

you're on top. That's fair enough.

That's Brad Cox manscape. Well.

That's more of my job to find out the dance.

Yeah, right. That's for the horse racing

happy hour. I'm still waiting for my free

supply after that brilliant plug on the last.

Program. It was brilliant.

Yeah, you got to send me your address for those things.

He's Dan Elman. He is at DRF.

Dan Elman on Twitter. Go find him there.

And of course Daily Racing Corp Let's go ahead and pump your

stuff as as we get into Derby weekend, you guys are doing a

ton of stuff over at the Daily Racing.

We are doing a ton of stuff at the Daily Racing Forum YouTube

channel. Handicapping stakes previews for

all of the graded races at Churchill Downs Friday and

Saturday. Brad Free Andy buyer with a

special webinar. All of our various talents

giving different handicapping opinions.

You've got podcasts. We already have 1000 new

subscribers. We've got giveaways.

Please head on over to the Daily Racing Forum YouTube channel,

Serious Fancy Captain Content. There you go.

At the DRF I had injunction 4th in that race.

The slop has crushed me today. Dan Newman here with us on the

ESPN 681057. You mentioned that Churchill

Downs race tomorrow. And you know it's funny you say,

you know, I'm interested in that race.

I always tell people, hey, the race before the Derby.

I think it's the real jewel of Saturday, that turf classic.

So let's get into it together here.

I really like the horse that Charlie Applebee's bringing

over. Obviously a naval power has been

on the ground here for a little while.

Ranic at Keeneland. I think by the time we get

together we had a fair amount of rain last night.

Dan, we're going to go yielding today.

I would guess they'll listed as good tomorrow.

I'll be very honest. I'm not sure how much this is a

turf course and more just a layer of green grass over

something. Did you, do you have a strong

feeling about naval power or another horse in that race

tomorrow? Naval power is certainly the

horse to beat. I'm really, I use a horse that

must be used in any sort of multiple race wagers.

I do want to give integration another chance.

I thought that this horse was brilliant in his first three

races. He beat horses like program

trading and I'm very busy and he beat them very easily.

They ran him in the Pegasus World Cup and I think he had a

very bad trip in that race. He stayed ground, tried to get

through in between horses and the hole just wasn't there and

by the time it was, the race was over and he still only got these

two lengths by warm heart. We know is a super mare.

I heard his last race in the Maker's Mark I I just think he

didn't handle that yielding turf course at Keeneland and he also

tried to come from all the way on the outside while Masters.

He's shot up the rail so he lost ground.

He's getting a better trip from the inside.

I'm using integration. I'm using power.

If you're looking for a crazy long shot in that race, check

out Cellist the number 3, because this horse won the

Louisville back at Churchill Downs in 2022 / a good turf

course, so he seems to like a little bit.

It gives. Maybe he's better on the

synthetic, as we saw in his last race, the Kentucky Cup Classic,

We ran a career best, but he ran really well in that spot and

he's outperformed his odds on occasion on turf.

So I'm a little bit interested in using him as a price source,

but I want to use integration and you know listen I I have to

use naval power in in multiple race wagers based on what we saw

in the makers Mark and he doesn't likes it wet.

Do you give web Slinger much of a shot in that field?

The seven horse Javier Castellano Mark Cassie won the

American turf here last year, 2 for two at Churchill Downs.

I am a huge fan of the source. I just can't lose any more money

on him. He has he just he just gets into

the miserable trips and all of his races.

I honestly believe he is as good as the big names in this race.

In the Saratoga Derby I thought he was best over program

trading. The problem was program trading

at an easy lead web swingers threw 4 wide all the way around

the track and he got beat ahead. I thought him the Twilight

Derby. He ran a great race.

The problem is he has to come six wide into the stretch and he

grows out of ground. Hollywood Derby.

Similar situation shuffled back when program trading.

Got the jump, got the run and finished second.

Didn't love his race last time out in the Munis.

I wonder how much upside is left.

He needs taste and I'm just not sure he's going to get it

because he is a one run closer. The speed of this race is never

surprised and if he gets loose he could be somewhat interesting

at a price for Mr. Fletcher. Dan Elman with us from the DRF

at DRF. Dan Elman on Twitter.

Of course, the YouTube stuff is the bread and butter with him.

Just probably, I hate to say this, the best video guy in

horse racing. I'm not proud of it.

It's not good. I'm not proud of it.

Whatever. We do a very janky show.

Dan does not. So go check yourself out over.

I'm really disappointed that we're not flying until later on

Thursday for the Preakness because I literally, I would

have been at that breakfast for you, Dan.

I've been at that Alibi breakfast because I would love

to see you get that award. I know you're going to thank us

in your acceptance speech, and it just would have been nice for

you to say, you know. Obviously made my career, so of

course I'm going to thank. You.

But I would serious business if we would have been able to get

there early. We got this little thing called

a PGA tournament. PJ James.

If I would we're flying in that night.

I would have, I would have made different arrangements and I

would have been there for that breakfast because it really is a

big honor and I'm hey. Dan, I just touted the 10.

It didn't hit the top five. Are you surprised?

I finished second to last. No, no there it is.

No, but you but but you have the natural excuse of a sloppy

track. There you go.

We'll blame. We'll blame Mother Nature.

There you are Dan, over with us. Let's get to let's get to the

oaks today. Let's go ahead and do that.

Dan. I.

There are man, frankly four or five Phillies in this race that

I really like. I love that our Pretty Woman

drew into this field, for example.

Obviously Tarifa has been terrific the whole year and you

know if we were handicapping the Derby and we were doing it 10

years ago, we would say look at this undefeated 3 year old who's

won or 100 point prep and all these things and final fractions

that we'd be talking about Tarifa as a favorite in the

Kentucky Derby. In the Oaks, that form matters

as well. A lot of times, more often than

the Derby of course we get the best horse winning the oaks that

we do the Derby. Tarifa already won on sloppy go.

We're seeing a bunch of these horses that can win on sloppy

go. If I crazy to love our Pretty

Woman drawing in, is Tarifa the favorite?

Where'd you land in the Oaks today?

I think our Pretty Woman deserves to be in the race.

I'm happy she's in the race and I think she's one of the most

talented runners in the crop and I think that she could easily

win. I think this is one of the best

Kentucky oaks fields we've seen in recent years from a betting

standpoint. From a competition standpoint,

they're very evenly matched. I think you make a case for nine

of the horses in this race. I do think Theresa is probably

the horse to beaten as a horse, but I think must be used in all

sorts of multiple race wagers. I don't want to give up on

Leslie's Rose and I wonder if we're going to simply because of

the lousy post position. She's a Philly that showed an

immense amount of talent in her first two starts.

She bombed at Gulf Streams and starts back and then she showed

up at Keenan last time out it was much more professional.

Now she had a perfect trip at Keeneland, the old pocket inside

out, and that can't work out for her from post 14 here, but she's

run well on wet going in the past.

I just think Leslie's Rose has a lot of natural talent and if she

drifts off her borderline, I want to use her.

I think Tarifa's very logical. I think our Pretty Woman is very

logical. Listen Torpedo Anna looks so

good off of the layoff Ways and Means that such a miserable trip

in her seasonal debut tower squeezes the worst of all of

them that might be overlooked even though all she does is win.

It's kind of a wide open race. I don't want to use all, I don't

want to nine. We haven't even talked about

masters 2 year old champion, just FYI.

But I think Teresa is the worst to be.

I want to bet list these rows. If she drifts slightly off for

boarding line, I think she has a little bit more upside.

Just FYI, run second in that Ashland first time running this

year is the second. Second off the layoff here, the

longer stretch of Churchill Downs.

So those both play to her very well tomorrow or?

Tonight, excuse me, I think it plays to.

I think it plays to her very well.

I think the fact that there was a lot of sweet in this race

plays to her very well because while she did win the Breeders

Cup juvenile Phillies from right up close to the pace, I think

she'll be just as effective rallying from out of it.

The one concern with just FYI is this.

It was obviously a late start to the season and while it was a

very good prep for her in the Ashland, is she really thick and

tight with only one prep race under her belt breaking from

post 13 against this competitive field, this is a race where I

think everyone should make a fair odds line.

Not not a morning line odds, but what do you believe the fair

odds on each horse could be And then go for the overlay?

We are hanging out with Dan Illman from the DRF here on the

Horse Racing Happy hour ESPN 681057 today until 1:00

tomorrow, 11:00 to 2:00 for our Derby coverage after our guy

Mike Penna on the Horse Racing Radio Network.

The Edgewood is before that race.

We're going to have three Yielding races on the turf here

today. Dan, lots of people in this

market are Derby fans, not horse racing fans, so they might be

listening to this show. Just trying to get some insights

on what to look for as they head to the track for Kentucky Oaks

Day. When you have a yielding turf

course, is there anything that you look for in particular?

Do you look for horses that have won and run well on yielding

courses? Do you happen to look for

European based runners in those cases?

What is it that Dan Elman looks for on a yielding course?

Well, most of the European horses have experience over wet

turf courses and they're obviously going to do well.

I think what you're looking for is previous winning experience

on turf. And the good news about the DRF

formulator, past performances, A shameless plug as well.

Turf statistics for every Stallion, and you also have

pedigree statistics for every dam, so you'll be able to check

out the family for horses that have never raced on the turf in

the past, wet turf in the past. And really that's going to be

the key to this races, and I think it's hard to justify last

year's breeders. Cup 2 Phillies turf winner has

never raced on a wet track in her career and it'll be

interesting to see how she handles it, especially off of a

lengthy layoff. If you think she's going to be a

short force off of a layoff, maybe this testing grounds will

make it even more difficult for her.

I think that a lot of folks going to navigate towards Fuku

because she just won over a wet turf horse in the Appalachian.

She won over a wet surf horse in Keeneland, Jessamine, but she's

kind of a one run closer that maybe needs a little bit of pace

and race health. While I do think parts justifies

the horse to be keep an eye on both, Fox gives them.

The wife is very underrated. She ran a quality race in the

Appalachian last time out at 58 to one after a very tough trip

in the China Doll behind Southern California's best 3

year old Sir Billy Maduro. I think MO Fox Given is still

getting good and I think she's going to be a good price yet

again. By the way, it it is, it is true

that it is very difficult to find a racing form at Churchill

Downs. But I want to tell people that

in almost every freaking liquor store in this city you can find

the form. And with our partners at Cox's

and Evergreen Liquors around the city, 2526 different locations,

they're going to have the form there for you.

So if you want to get that paper form, you could obviously always

go to drf.com and buy the form that way.

If you want the digital copy, maybe print it out at home if

you want it. But if you want that book and

look, Dan, this is one of those weekends having that old school

form, you know, it's like being at the track.

You want to get that paper ticket in your hand, right?

I agree. I think there's nothing better

than holding a racing form, if not for posterity sake, when you

hit the fix sticks and you're able to take the form home and

frame it and put it on your wall.

Plus, if you get it at the liquor store, you can pick up a

bag of Old Ripple as well. There it is.

So Dan Elman with us from the Daily Racing for check out their

YouTube page as you mentioned, go.

What about our Knicks? Man, were you excited?

Oh, I'm not really that excited about that foolishness.

I I I don't. Follow.

Much of the I don't really follow much of the other sports.

That's why I'm a winner here. I focused on one sport.

I'm not worried about baseball with the foolish Yankees.

They don't know what they're doing with the basketball.

I'm I'm happy the Knicks are doing great.

It's about time. The last Knick game I watched, I

think John Starks and Patrick Ewen.

What about? All right, well, Knicks,

Rangers, they're up there. I'm.

I'm all about it there. You go, All right, Dan Hilbert,

let's go ahead and get to that Kentucky Derby and one of fifty.

You covered the Belmont 150 already.

Are we kind of just bums down here in Kentucky for being a

couple years behind? I'm I'm a little bit

disappointed, but not surprised there.

You go it is race 12 to borrow post time right before 7 PM 657

here at Churchill Downs Dan. I I've made the horrible mistake

of listening to everyone else this week, so I'm going to make

the horrible mistake of also listening to you.

I'm just kidding. Where did you land in this one?

We're seeing fierceness here, like 2 to one.

I'm just not comfortable betting a 2 to one horse, a three-year

old in a 20 horse field with all the things that happened in the

Kentucky Derby. I, I, and I've asked everyone

this question, Dan. They've all answered it exactly

the same. I will ask it to you the same

way I've asked everyone else. If fierceness runs his race

tomorrow, does he win the Kentucky Derby?

Yes, if fierceness runs his race tomorrow, he wins the Kentucky

Derby. The problem is that's a big if

because we've seen fierceness and he can be had if fierceness

doesn't get things his own way. His Florida Derby, yes, it looks

brilliant. 110 buyers, speed figure.

He wins by the length of the stretch.

He beat a terrible feel that day and he had everything his own

way. There's other speed in this

race. I do think John Velasque is

gonna try to make the front with this source if he breaks because

he is a bit cranky, you're right, two to one.

I just don't know if I want to take that short of price on that

horse while realizing that he can win.

This is a gambling game and sometimes he just got to take a

stand against. I think the two most likely

winners in this race are Sierra Leone and forever young.

Those are the horses I would be concentrating on, on the win

end. And then he has sort of multiple

race wagers, a Sierra Leone just to have found that killer in

endeavour. Chad Brown put blinkers on, you

remember the reps and we had all the momentum and he just didn't

get by doorknobs for one reason or another.

The blinkers have come on, he wins the risen star, he wins the

bluegrass. And what I liked about both of

those races is that he felt the agility to weave his way through

horses at key junctures of that race.

He's going to have to do that here.

Obviously breaking for posts too and like he far behind and he'll

have to weave through a nineteen others or go around the ball.

But he's that talented. And As for forever young, you

know, we've been touting him on the on the podcast for a long

time. Ever since pretty much he won

his debut. He had a feeling he was going to

be the best Japanese entrance that we've seen at Churchill

Downs for the Kentucky Derby. He's handled everything that's

thrown at him now. It's hard to, you know, you

watch these Japanese horses work out and you're like, oh they're

going really, really slow. I just have a feeling that's

part of their training regimen and that they're set to go on

Derby day. He's a very talented horse.

I think if he can work, if he can stay within range, this will

be the fastest pace he's ever seen in his entire life.

If he can stay within range, I do think the source will get a

good kick. This will stay all day long.

I mean, I feel like Sierra Leone's been, like, forgotten

about after he grew the two. It's. 5:00 to 1:00, right?

Now. That's a good number.

That's a good number. Top 2-3 horse in your

handicapping. If you can get 5 to one, that's

a bet. Much better number.

And you know, we've watched for every young ones every morning

out here, Dan and who's fine across the track, no problems.

I've really actually been very impressed with how TO Password

has looked along those same lines.

We just don't know a lot about that horse.

Well what I know about TO Password from watching his first

two races is he does have natural speed.

He breaks really sharp from the gate.

In his debut back on January the 6th, he sat just off of another

horse and he blew by him in the stretch.

It was a good looking performance and then in this

last race they put him right on the lead.

Now he was saved by the wire there, which makes me wonder,

does he really want to go a mile and a quarter, especially when

he's dealing with fast-paced horses like fierceness, Contract

Phantom in the early portion of this race?

And then you consider his limited experience.

He's only raced twice in his career, but why do you want to

knock a 50 to one shot? If you like them, use them.

Personally, I think this is a little bit too much, too soon.

But you're right, supposedly he has been working very, very

well. You're a New York guy.

Resilience won the wood. We haven't had a ton of success

coming out of the Wood Memorial in the Kentucky Derby.

Resilience to me, has looked better than all of the other

Wood Memorial winners that I followed here.

Bill Mott. Knows what he's doing.

Junior Alvarado knows what he's doing.

Does that horse have a shot? I have some very sharp horse

players here in New York who like this horse a lot in the

Derby at a very big price. They love the way that he is

slowly getting better with each start.

This is not like one of those brilliant cases with fierceness

where he was, you know, from day one we knew he was going to be

good. Resilience.

They knew he was going to be good.

They just knew he needed some time to grow into himself.

And if you look at his last few races, they've all been good.

The Gulfstream race was a nice confidence booster when he

graduated. The Risen star ran really,

really well that day, pushing the pace and tiring.

And then last time out in the Woods Memorial.

I think the blinkers made a heck of a difference.

His tactical speed is going to allow Junior Alvarado to work

out a good trip. I think this source is live 2025

to one, and you can certainly use at the very bottom of your

single race exotics at the very least.

Is there a horse in this field that's kind of off the board?

If someone trying to fill in a trifecta superfecta kind of bet

on Derby day that might be closing late, could it be an

honor Marie? Could it be another horse of

that ilk? What's this denim?

I I think that Honor Marie is a horse that's going to take a lot

of wise guy attention simply because he looks good on paper

and a lot of folks have forgotten about him.

I mean, catching freedom we haven't talked about, but it's

not like he's going to be this tremendous price in the field.

I do think Crack Phantom will outrun his odds, although I'm

worried about the distance. I'm worried about the pace.

Are you looking for a closer? I think Endlessly is the horse

that you're supposed to look at. I think you're supposed if he

was 2 to 1 going into this race, you're supposed.

That's awesome because he's never run on dirt.

If it is a wet track, who knows how we'll deal with kickback,

but this horse has shown an explosive tick on both turf and

unsynthetic. If this taste is fast and it

falls apart, why can't this horse come up for a piece at a

big price? If I have endlessly on top in my

handicapping Dan, am I an idiot? No, you're not an idiot because

you're you're you're taking a talented horse at a price.

Does he have a lot of questions? Certainly has a lot of

questions. He's never raced on dirt.

It's kind of a Turkey pedigree. But I have a tremendous amount

of respect for these connections and I really just love for the

way this horse has finished his races, with the exception of the

Breeders, subjuvenile turf where I really thought he seemed

uncomfortable in between horses, at the end of that race, he

flies endlessly. Is the horse where if he handles

the dirt, you know you're dealing with an if with

pierceness at 2:00 to 1:00. I don't need that.

I'll take an if on a 30 to one shot like.

Endlessly, obviously. Like 48 to one on endlessly

right now. Oh no.

It's 3 year olds. We're talking about that.

That's why we're going through the field.

Another horse that I'm interested in is the Brad is the

Chad Brown Treaty. Excuse me, the Brown Treaty

domestic product picks up. Irad Ortiz here, one what was a

very slow Tampa Bay Derby, but what I liked about that run for

him, Dan, is there wasn't speed to run into and he still

overcame it. What do you say about domestic

product and the, you know, the addition of Irad Ortiz here?

I agree with you. That domestic product overcame a

very slow pace in the Tampa Bay Derby.

What I also like about that race is you remember there was about

a 35 minute tote delay before that race.

Maybe this whole 100,000 people screaming and yelling at him,

it's going to bother him. He didn't turn a hair while

having a walk and walk and walk and walk and walk around.

There was a big crowd at Tampa Bay as well.

I think a lot of people are going to underestimate this

horse because of his slow speed figures.

But how can you earn a fast speed figure in slow paced

races? And all these had two races this

year were slow paced races. He was wired by Haiti, so did he

finish ahead of that day? He finished ahead of fierceness

and in the Tampa Bay Derby he showed his guts and

determination. I think he's fast.

He's going to run faster than he did in the Holy Bull in the

Tampa Bay Derby. The question is how much faster

and if the pace is going to be fast.

It's not like he's going to come from 2 lengths out of it.

He might have to be 10 to 12 out of it.

So Irad's going to have to lose all his skill with domestic

product. I do think he needs to take a

little bit of a step forward to win this race, but again, I

don't want to knock a 30 to one shot who could be dirtied up

simply because he's slow, but only slow because the the races

came back slow from a pace stampling.

Last one I'll ask you about and this is Dan Ilman at DRF.

Dan Ilman on Twitter, go find all of his stuff at YouTube.

He's on the DRF homepage there. They do incredible work over

there. Dan, one of the very best in the

business stronghold, comes out of the Santa Anita Derby and

Mike and I have been saying it all week.

We cannot remember the last time no one talked about the Santa

Anita Derby winner. The thing I will point to with

him is I love how he made his own path between two horses in

that Santa Anita Derby at the top of the stretch.

I thought that's the kind of move that you need to be able to

make in a 20 horse field if you're going to make hay

tomorrow on the 1st Saturday in May.

What says Dan Elman about Strong?

Well, you're right about that. He bowled his way through, I

thought All in all, the Santa Anita Derby.

He had a very, very good trip. I think Phil D'amato just

managed him well and put him in some great spots for Someone

Derby, the Santa Anita Derby, where Baffert wasn't throwing

his big guns in there. So this is obviously a huge

test. I do like his tactical speed.

I think it's the kind of horse that can put himself anywhere.

His jump wants a BI, like the fact that, as you mentioned,

that you can race in between horses and it doesn't bother

him. And I think an underrated factor

if this range keeps up and if this track is wet.

This Sire Go staffer is one of the best in the world on wet

tracks and that could move strong, hold up a big deal.

He's been working well leading up to this race.

Another horse that has to run faster.

He just, he kind of lacks a little bit of sizzle and that's

probably one of the reason he's not taking a lot of money.

But how can you knock a horse that's run six times and has

never finished worse than six? It's just that I wish you ran

better in the Los Alamitos futurity.

Like that's the race I look at. I'm saying he's got to be quick

stock for me if he's gonna win the Derby.

Yeah, that that stands out for me as well.

He is Dan Elman at DRF. Dan Elman on Twitter, of course.

Go get that paper form today, people.

Let's go old school, get it today, get it tomorrow, go hang

out with the DRF on YouTube and of course on his Twitter page as

well covering the Mid-Atlantic. And he is.

And and let's let's drop all of the fun stuff about the happy

hour for a second. Dan, when we say congratulations

about the old Hilltop Award, we mean it.

It is. It's a tremendous honor.

And that you come on our show and you have fun and you you

treat us like colleagues means a ton to us.

Congratulations on the award. We are very much looking forward

to you being a big shot and not talking to us in two weeks.

No, no, I make games and have you kiss the ring and make you

touch the award if there is one. But no, I I really appreciate

you guys a lot. I thank you very much for the

congratulations. I have a lot of fun with you

guys and after after several stressful days of racing, it's

always fun talking to you. Well, I appreciate that very

much. I know Mike does as well, but

you stay home and we'll get you out of here.

Thanks, Dan. Happy.

Have a good Derby.