Dan Illman | Derby 151 Trail Begins

I welcome and it is a September 12th edition of the Horse Racing

Happy Hour live at the Paddock at Churchill Downs.

I'm Louis Roubo, hanging out tonight with our friend from the

Daily Racing Forum. His name is Dan Illman.

He is in a much more cultured part of the world, joining us

from New York City. Of course, Dan, your your

coastal elite, you get to be part of our inaugural sejure, if

you will. I'm using the word sejure on

purpose on the Sporting Tribune feed as well.

So say hello to everyone in San Diego, Los Angeles and Las

Vegas. How about that?

Do I have to? No, you don't.

No. Of course not.

Hello everybody. Again, it's an honor to be here.

Debut edition. Very excited on site Downs under

the twin Spires in the paddock. So many legendary moments at

Churchill Downs and so many more yet to come.

Well, there you go, a little track they call Churchill Downs

here hanging out outside a quarter billion dollar paddock.

Nothing wrong with any of that, Dan.

Wanted to get your thoughts on a couple of things, but of course

we bring Dan in whenever this part of the season hits.

We'll start with this question, Dan.

More likely that the Derby winner runs in the Iroquois or

runs in any of the maiden races. The two year old maiden races on

Saturday. What a question.

You know something? I'm a gambler.

I'm going to say maiden race. Yeah, I think that's probably.

Right. A lot of times, Louis, in these

stakes races, they're precocious.

They're early. These are horses, many of them

right now, they're going to be separated.

Men, boys, router, sprinter, this one turned mile in the

Iroquois, Pocahontas. I'm telling you, a lot of these

horses are stretching out for the first time.

They're all speed balls. They're going to be caught out,

I think, by this distance, so half of them are likely to be

off the Derby trail. After this race.

You might get two or three that might move on to the next one,

the Kentucky Jockey Club, and then perhaps down the road.

But these maidens, you might not see a maiden winner in the

Kentucky Derby, but you might see a good fast closing third or

a fast closing second or a fast closing 4th.

Those are the ones to watch. That's exactly right.

We've had a couple of two year old maidens win here tonight

that I think are worth watching already.

So we'll get into all of that as we go along.

I did want to pick your braid a little bit because Breeders'

Cup. We're only two months out.

I'm sure I'll be running into you in San Diego.

This is how the world works. We have Kentucky Downs here, Dan

and I don't know if you're aware of the field near Tennessee

where we run Races 7. Days over.

OK. And you have to hear about it

over and over again because of the purses and all these kinds

of things. Kentucky horses or horses coming

out of Kentucky Downs, over 53 on the grass at Breeders' Cup

races in California, the last 53 runs.

Does that mean a single thing to you?

Absolutely. What does it mean?

We don't believe anything that happens at Kentucky Downs.

It is a completely different ball game.

A tight turf course at Delmar, firm turf course at Delmar,

whatever the heck you have a Kentucky Downs with a weed

growing fields, eight mile races, 4400 turns, undulating

peaks and valleys. Not to be rude, you rarely see a

good horse win at Kentucky Downs.

You see a lot of bad horses give big performances and their bet

against. I love Kentucky Downs.

The people love Kentucky Downs. Great for the horsemen, Great if

you can pick winners over that track because you've got 13

horse fields, you've got your dime break, you've got your

nickel breakage. But boy, oh penny breakage.

Boy, oh boy, boy, oh boy. It's hard to trust anything that

happens. It's like when I'm handicapping

Laurel and I see horses coming out of Timonium.

They're running the Ferris wheel.

They've got all kinds of cotton candy all over them.

I don't touch them with a 10 foot pole if they run big and I

don't care if they run bad. I want horses.

You know who's going to win a Breeders' Cup race one of these

days in California? A horse that runs lousy at

Kentucky Downs and is completely overlooked, but has good form

everywhere else on conventional turf horses.

His name is Dan Ilman. He does not speak for the horse

racing happy hour, of course, but there you go.

I'm kidding, of course. The a horse who is good and did

run well at Kentucky Downs is named Cogburn.

And so we're gonna watch the replay of Cogburn winning the

Ainsworth Turf Sprint, the six furlong very short quick turn

into that left turn there at Kentucky Downs.

Zach, go ahead and hit that that pre play for us here on the

Horse Racing Happy Hour. They make their way toward the

top of the stretch. It is Cogburn who will turn for

home in front. Cogburn, the leader at the top

of the lane Here. Charcoal sneaks through on the

inside and right up there too is no balls.

Who comes up alongside of them. It is Cogburn to catch 3

sixteenths to go. No balls on the outside, moves

up into second. Charcoal is down toward the

inside, but Cogburn is opened up.

Cogburn is opened up by three, then no balls in second.

One timer and Charcoal on the inside.

No doubt about it, it is Cogburn.

Cogburn scores. Probably the best.

Just a quick. A quick ask A quick ask, do they

mow that lawn or do they just have goats out there eating it?

It's a little bit of both. How about that?

Yeah, No, it's a fair question. All right.

So Cogburn though, one of those horses, Dan, we saw really great

at Saratoga best turf printer sense whom as far as the last

like 3-4 races, it's it won't been too long probably, but the

numbers are incredible, frankly. The numbers are incredible.

When you got the world record at Saratoga, right, 5 1/2 for a

lungs and sub a minute. I mean that was an unbelievable

performance. And again, he was able to

overcome Kentucky Downs. He ate up the lawn, he just

showed off that amazing early speed and he kept on going.

It is worth noting that the one loss he ever had was a Kentucky

Downs on turf. But still, I actually was

rooting for him a little bit to lose.

Not because I hate Cogburn, I love Cogburn as a horse, but

because I want value in the Breeders Cup turfs.

Of course, if he came into this race off a bad third, you'd be

like a bad third at Kentucky. Downs means nothing to me, but

he's a deserving favor in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint.

I'm sure Asmussen's got to tighten the screws now because

you got to turn them back to five at Del Mar.

He's got that speed now. He's going to be facing some

Southern California speed, but boy is he good.

He is very, very good. Do you worry at all about that

transition? Obviously we're gonna get the

Euro shippers. We're gonna see that we got for

the first time. I was either at Keeneland or

last year where one of those two year old EUR took the left turn

and actually won the race. I think they finished top three,

in fact, in the in the, you know, outside of the euro

shippers. You think he'll take to

California? OK.

I think he'll take to California just fine.

He's a professional horse. He's been around a long time.

He's been good on dirt, he's been good on turf.

He's displayed the versatility to win from on or off the lead.

I think he will be close to the pace.

I think you always worry about distances in Sprint distance

changes. Even 6:00 to 5:00 is a big

change. 7:00 to 5:00 as you see in New York, some New York with

the Keeneland when they go to seven to five and a half

sometimes. But with him, I'm not worried

about it. He's just very, very versatile.

As for the European and turf sprinters, I'm always leery

because many of those horses are often slow from the gate.

And if you break a step slow, 1/2 step slow in a North

American 5/8 of a mile turf race with a big field of horses that

all of a sudden you have to navigate your way around, it's

real tough to do, especially for a baby.

We saw that last year, Gerardo Carlos guiding the

aforementioned no balls. I do you think Larry Colmes was

saying his name a little longer for a fact in that race?

Just a little bit. He's a fun horse, isn't he?

Except you think about it, Debbie, you never want to be

that horse. But at the end of the day, I

think he's a sneaky horse in the Breeders Cup because I have a

feeling that Larry Ravelli might have gotten a little bit of a

late start with this horse this year.

So we just decided to work backwards right away from the

Breeders Cup Turf Sprint. He's now had two preps, one off

the layoff he likely needed here was a great fitness builder.

Again, he didn't run great, but it was Kentucky Downs and he ran

into a monster who was really primed and ready to go.

Something tells me we're going to see the real no balls at Del

Mar. I think you're totally right

about that. Let's move on.

We're getting we have you on because the first Kentucky Derby

prep is this Saturday here at Churchill Downs, the Iroquois,

obviously a Ted Point prep. Pocahontas the same day folks

for the Kentucky Oaks, same point system for them.

Some changes this year, Dan 2, the road to the Kentucky Derby,

both in where they're racing and in which races will count.

So, Zach, if you can go ahead and pull that graphic up for us

so that we can see sort of the changes and kind of show

everybody what's going on as far as those changes.

But what stands out immediately, of course, Dan, is they're

adding the Virginia Derby. This is not so stunning.

I wish they would have, by the way, instead of changing the the

Virginia Derby just completely to the dirt, keep the Virginia

Derby on grass and call this like the Richmond Derby or

something. I don't know.

It might be a fanatic here. Of course I'm being fanatic.

What are we? Doing Yeah, I, I think you are

actually I, I, I, I the Derby point situation is always very

tough. I mean, again, it's exciting

that we're talking about the Derby right now, but isn't it

kind of silly? I mean, the Iroquois is going to

offer 10 points. We don't even know who the two

year old champion yet. We don't even know who the

Breeders Cup Juvenile winner is. And these horses are getting 10

points. I don't know.

I, I think the Virginia Derby, it's very nice.

It's seven weeks out. It'll be interesting to see how

it affects the fields and some of the other more established

races. And the Colonial Downs.

I mean that that track is still a little bit untested on dirt.

I have no idea how that's going to work out.

Huh. It will be very interesting

because that place is set up for turf racing.

You're totally right about that. Seven weeks prior to the Derby.

You think that's on purpose. Maybe you know, train up to the

Derby from there, or if it doesn't go well you can jump

into another prep 3 weeks later. I think that's the right move if

because horsemen do have the choice nowadays.

I think that horsemen want to give more and more and more

time. How many times do we see like

horsemen, You know, they get the big points at Tampa Bay Downs

and then they just decide I'm going to train up to the race

just to get in. Hey, if you want to get in and

have a mint julep, that's great. I'm not sure your horse is going

to be well prepared, but there are so many trainers nowadays

that are afraid of a bounce or bringing a horse back too

quickly. Seven weeks is going to fit the

mold for trainers that love to give time and for a horse that

seems to be getting better. If you run very well in the

Virginia Derby, plenty of time to run back.

So I do like the timing of the race.

I like the timing if it's a prep to a prep to the Derby.

I hate horses coming off long layoffs in the Derby.

Yeah, right. You could lead into the

Lexington or something I guess too, if you wanted a smaller

prep as the final race prior to the Derby there three weeks

before at Keeneland, of course, they've combined the Euro and

the UAE routes. Dan and I, I actually really

applaud this route, this this move because I think there needs

to be more of a concentration in American dirt racing, especially

on bringing more Japanese horses over.

I think that should be something that we really are pushing, but

we're also seeing because of the, I mean frankly the the

stunningly well good results from from Japanese traders,

owners, etcetera, they are going to the Arabian Peninsula to get

over here as well. So keeping the UAE Derby as 100

point race, that makes sense to me as well.

Yeah, a lot of the Japanese horsemen are going to want to go

there and they're also going to use the Saudi Derby as a prep to

the UAE Derby, as Forever Young did.

Now, of course, they do have the Japan or they had the Japan road

to the Triple Crown. Forever Young just bypassed

that. He was too good for He decided

he wanted the big money in Saudi and the big money in the UAE

Derby. So the UA Derby, listen, it is

never a great Betty Grace. It seems there's always this one

to five shot that dominates and then you've got 6 stragglers.

But if you can attract a couple or three Japanese horses, great.

I'm still waiting for the horse to come out of the turf prep in

Europe to actually do something to me.

It isn't going to happen. I don't understand that part of

it at all. But hey, I, I, I get the idea of

making this a global race. I just think you can concentrate

on two or three spots overseas and really get a, a really good

runner, frankly, on the 1st Saturday in May.

And those races with smaller fields, they're going to be

penalized, Dan And I think we know where the shot across the

bow, he's especially aimed. But A5 horse field, if people

don't know, and this is by the way, what's carded, I've been

told it's not, you know, if they get to the gate and it's eight

horse field, the three of them run through the gate or

something, they're not going to do that.

But 75% of the points in A5 horse field and down to 50% for

four or fewer horses. Dan, this won't affect say, like

a wood memorial or something like that in New York, but it's

probably at least on the radar Are the folks running in San

Anita? I think anybody in Southern

California's got to be terrified, you know, and a

Baffert might just. But here, here's the problem

with this. And again, this is the Baffert

penalty because what we have the sham 5 horse Bafford.

Field, yeah. Four horse, Bafford Field or

something like that here. Are you just going to now have a

trainer maybe that has one or two or three?

We won't mention any names. Good 3 year olds afraid that

they're going to scare them off and all of a sudden you're going

to enter 6? No hopes, six maidens that can't

run or or three and all of a sudden though the race is

watered down. I, I don't know, Southern

California is always a problem because it's an island unto

itself. You don't see a horseman with

good 3 year olds on the East Coast Midwest ship out to

Southern California, right? Major problem.

I think we need an incentive to get trainers to go out to

Southern California and I'm not exactly sure what that is.

Maybe more points with more horses.

Maybe indeed, but I thought we would have to talk about that

for sure. All right.

So we are dragging Dan into our first ever blind ranking segment

and this is essentially how it works.

We're going, we're going to, we're going to have Dan rank

five horses that have won the Kentucky Derby in the last 10

years, OK. He does not know who is coming

next. And so 1 is the best, 5 is the

worst, Dan. And we will start with this past

year's winner in Mystic Dan. Where would you rank him?

You think amongst without knowing who's coming next?

See this is I love this game already because I would say I

know who's coming. See I I tempted to say 5, but I

have a feeling I know who's coming 4.

Mystic Dad 4. Mystic Dan at 4, Your next horse

I, I think I'm gonna surprise you with this one, is Nyquist.

Oh, he is very good horse, Nyquist.

I gotta say, I gotta say this, when Nyquist won the Derby here

and and that room was full of people booking for Belmont, I

will say that that was, I mean, that was that was one of those

moments, but I'll let you go here.

Nyquist Super Race horse has really become an excellent

stallion. I'm going to put him.

Let me put him at 3:00. OK.

I'm Nyquist. Emptied.

Yeah. Yeah, Nyquist at 3.

Of course, named after the Detroit Red Wing.

How about that? Your next one is a horse named

American Pharaoh. 1. All right, so American Pharaoh

gets the one. We'll see if Zach knows how to

spell Pharaoh in American Pharaoh.

A very important thing here. Oh, look at that.

How about that? Or actually, he doesn't.

He got here. Now he's felt it the wrong way

by accident. Just random needless shrapnel

being caught by 1 producer Zach, in this case September Derby

winner Authentic. This is a tough one because

again, I have a feeling you're saving the best for last.

I'm going to have authentic 2. OK.

All right. You could justify out here, I'm

going to be very angry. So Dad, where would your right

justify? I was expecting most country

house 21. Or Ridge strike.

Yeah, right. I know.

Yeah, yeah. But wow.

All right. So this is a massive failure, by

the way. It's been a lot of fun, No?

It's all right. So we've got the list.

This is the blind list. Yes Dan, I'm going to afford you

the opportunity. Go ahead and re rank these.

OK, American Pharaoh, Justify Nyquist, Authentic Mystic Dan.

I think I agree with you. Yeah, Don't change that.

No, no, no. He's stuck with this.

Don't. You dare do that And and he's

stuck. With the blind, Yeah.

You like it, don't you, Dad? You like that segment?

Well again, that's the problem. You out handicapped yourself,

you're out think yourself right. These are going to be justify or

it's strike. Yeah, I think I did a good job

there. All right, there you.

Go, Dan. This is going on our Twitter,

just so you know. Dan knows it's all right.

He knows. He knows his job on this show.

He also knows that we're presented by our friends over at

manscapemanscape.com. Promo code HORSE RACING 20% off

a note I've been getting, and I think it's very cool.

You can see a Spire. How about that?

Let's see, there's a second Spire.

How about that? That's great is that people are

actually getting the face products with the foil razors

for their teenagers for their first experience with with

shaving. So in case you don't want to get

a razor for your kid, something like that, go check it out, get

the foil. You know, you got a teenager,

maybe a preteen. I wasn't one of those guys.

Didn't have to shave till I was like 17.

But if you are one of those people, maybe you can help your

kid out that way. Me either.

I never shave. Possible.

Never. Never.

Yeah, that's all. You never shave.

That's right. Never lost. manscape.com promo

code HORSE racing. Get 20% off free shipping to

your house as well. As part of that, I was, I was

alerted Dan, that one of my neighbors had had bought it for

her son. And I was like, that's actually

a legitimately great idea and I'm going to bring that up on

the show. So there you go.

All right, so 2 year olds in handicapping, obviously

Pocahontas this weekend, Iroquois this weekend, tons of

maiden races going on right now. Dan, tell people about your

book, because it is, as we found on Amazon, still available, But

is it still relevant? Is it still?

Relevant in some ways it's still relevant.

I mean, you know, I have a lot of sires that have some of them

have died obviously like that rankings of sires and trainers

etcetera. But I think some of the angles

are still relevant. It needs to be updated, but I

think when we talk about handicapping maiden races, let's

talk about two year old maiden races, maiden races overall,

everyone falls for the first time starter.

I don't know whether it's all we want to find the next star.

We want to be smarter than anybody else, right?

Play experienced horses most of the time they have a tremendous

edge over first time starters. You look at some of the trainers

and I pulled up some data over the last few years, Some of the

greatest trainers in the world. Steve Asmussen's ROI with first

time starters this year, $1.29, 2020 three $1.40 Chad Brown one

46143, Doug O'Neill one 37117. You're getting killed if you're

just blindly playing the Super trainers with first time

starters. They give up so much experience

to the horses that have already raced.

They're unknown commodities or at least you have something on

form with the horses that have already run.

So I was that would be one of the first steps playing

experienced horses. And don't get fooled too much by

buyer speed figures or any kind of metric.

These horses are growing, they are maturing.

Sometimes you, as you'll see in some of these races coming up,

big buyers, big figures, aided by pace, aided by the way the

race was run. Now it's going to be a

completely different situation. You want to project the number

for resources, not go blindly off what we have.

Whether it's a big number, both horses off the regret and the

horses with middling to competitive numbers can improve.

Watch trips as well. Horses that might have won a

pace duel, lost the race war, They might get a better

situation. Watch horses that finish well in

their debut, especially for trainers, don't do very well and

gallop out well after the race. It's usually a sign that the

trainer was giving them one and they're going to move forward

next time out. Every trainer, every circuit's

going to have a trainer that does win.

A guy like Larry Ravelli, he's 22 for his last 78.

Oh, I it's unbelievable. A guy like Dwayne Wright.

The Emerald Downs is very, very good.

DRF Formulator is exceptional because they're able to give you

these statistics, percentages for stallions and also of course

percentages for trainers. But you know, experienced horses

work for me. Sires, if you want to look for

sires right now that do very, very well.

If you're going to play a first time starter, they have to have

three things. They have to have a trainer that

likes to win the first time starters and does very well.

They have to have a pedigree. The female family's obviously

important, but here's just a list of horses.

But when 18% or more, which is my benchmark for saying they're

an above average debut stallion, Gun runner, Twirling, Candy,

Violence, Gervin. Not this time.

Omaha Beach. Just six names off the top of my

head that I put down and I realized these are sires that I

keep an eye on. And I think the most important

thing is something that you're going to have to really work at,

and those are workouts. Nowadays, we have the workout

report where we're able to check out at Saratoga and Del Mar, see

how these horses are working. I like to see who they're

working with. A lot of times trainers are

going to work horses with similar ability together to give

them both a good stiff workout in the morning.

I remember back in the old days before we had workout reports,

all we had was the old tab in the racing forum.

And I remember Medallia de Arro was one of my favorite horses in

the country, was the best 3 year old in the country perhaps at

the time. And every week I'd look at the

work tab and I'd see Medallia de Arro 59.8 Bullet and under and

maybe you same tab Empire Maker 59 eight.

And I'd say I don't know who Empire Maker is.

Seven days later. Medelio Dioro 7 furlongs 124

Empire Maker 7 furlongs 124. Well obviously these sources are

working together. Empire Maker was an unraced 2

year old that was working with the best 3 year old in the

country. It's no surprise that he came

out and was an exceptional race source in his own right.

Yeah, that makes a a ton of sense.

It's interesting too, because I think intuitively, Dan, we would

assume a sire like a gun runner or something, it would take his

progeny a little bit longer to develop because we saw his best

racing as an older horse, right. And so sometimes it's

counterintuitive, like a Nyquist, you mentioned his

horses do well on turf too, right?

Or justify doing well on turf even if we didn't see the run on

turf. Well, that's the remarkable

thing with the justifies even American Pharaoh, you can make

the argument American Pharaoh, you think?

Turf sire. Now the justifies I think can

run on anything, but they started out amazing on turf and

they just can do it. Whether it's a hidden the nugget

to gene in the in the pedigree of Justify that allows this to

happen, who knows, but you never really do know.

It's a good point about the Gun Runners in that they do seem to

be at least early right now, and they continue on.

Let's go ahead and look at those two stakes races for two year

olds on the weekend. Of course you can find

thedrf@drf.com. Dan, how about this?

If you use promo code Louis, you get 10% off your purchase.

How about that Lou i.e. use your promo code get in there, 10% off

any of your stuff there over at drf.com, a bunch of stakes on

the card as well. I'll talk about that after we

kick Dan to the curb here. But the Pocahontas is race 8.

He mentioned it. It's out of that mile.

Shoot. I Dan we do shows together if

people are are finding us for the first time tonight ahead of

the Preakness. And one of the things I really

like about how Maryland runs their circuit is they start the

two year olds at six, then they go to seven for a long 6 eighths

of a mile 7/8 of a mile. Then they get to that mile shoot

at at Laurel and then eventually the two Turner that kind of

thing. Do you I like that they're

they're running out of the mile shoot for these races.

Do you agree? I I like it as well.

I think it's a good test of stamina.

And again, as we talked about in the open, it's kind of going to

weed out the sprinters from the routers at this point, the

precocious horses that wanted 4 1/2 and 5 1/2.

Now we're really going to be tested against horses maybe that

run one at 6 1/2 and seven. You could argue those sources of

a tremendous advantage going the one turn mile because as you

said, that progression is just natural buildup of stamina.

The Pocahontas is race 8 on Saturday.

We'll be in our usual spot. By the way, if people want to

pop by in 3:20, we'll be sitting up there watching the races this

weekend. Pop on by as always.

I'll have a cigar for you. One mile on the dirt course

here. Everything on the dirt this

September here at Churchill Downs.

A grade 3300 K in the Kitty here and some names that I think are

really interesting coming into this race.

We've got stilettos coming out of two back-to-back races with

sort of an unhard to handicap coming out of Lone Star, goes to

Ellis, wins her follow up there and the Debutante.

I think there's some longer shots in here.

Liam in the dust, for example. The 14 in this race.

I think it's really interesting at 15 to one for Luis Saez.

Where did Dan land in this race? Well, I'm interested in the 13

Kimchi Cat a little bit. I'm a little concerned that he

won the Bolton Landing in an off turf race.

He was entered main track only that day, so a lot of things

work to his advantage. But what I liked about Kimchi

Cat, she's not the biggest source in the world, but she was

able to sit and track the pace 3 wide.

She sort of just cruised up to the leaders turning for home.

She did it on her own. She's a very professional sort.

Tyler fits her to AT to aboard her.

And I think from this post position, which I'm not sure is

going to be too easy post 13 doing a one turn mile, I think

she's fast enough to get position without losing too much

ground. And thus if she's pulling A3

wide stalking trip or so while clear of the kickback, which

sometimes effects these young horses, I think she's going to

give a good accountable self. But as we said, there are so

many horses in this race. That makes sense.

I'm curious as to your thoughts on the horse with the Big Fig

and that is the Three La Cara. One last time out in gate to

wire fashion, Mark Cassie was winning with everything in the

world. She earns an 84 buyer.

Folks are going to gravitate to that.

I thought she couldn't have had an easier trip in that race if

they tried or drew it out on paper she got as loose as she

wanted to be. I don't know how who she beat

and I just can't see her pulling that trip in a field with other

speeds. Maybe she proves me wrong, but

at a short price I'm kind of aiding her.

What do you think her price will be?

A post time? You're talking about a short?

Is 5 to one a short price in this field for you?

I kind of think so. She's nine to two maiden race

last time out and again she's got the big last time out and if

she builds on it she wins. But I don't think there is any

guarantee she's going to build on it or her second race at

Churchill Downs. You're the big buyer speed

figure. She shows up as the favorite at

Saratoga and Kimchi Cat handles her.

I just think the big figure last time was because she was able to

feel good with that kind of trip.

You get out to the lead and face no pressure.

It's a lot different situation when going out to the lead and

facing 2-3 other fast horses. You mentioned Kimchi Cat.

I'm actually interested in this because when we were just

talking before we actually got to the race, you had mentioned,

hey, a horse with experience at 7 furlongs, right, which Lacara

has, in this case, Kimchi Cat doesn't.

That horse has never gone farther than 5 1/2 furlongs.

Why do you think you're leaning on a Kimchi Cat at 9:00 to 2:00

rather than a horse that won at 7 furlongs?

I kind of think, and even though Le Cara did win at 7 furlongs, I

think the trip is what turns me off.

If Kimchi Cat only had one start or maybe two starts, I'd be a

little bit concerned, but she has three races between 5:00 and

5:00 and 1/2, so I think she's at least built up the requisite

stamina from those three starts to get her ready to go A1 turn

mile. So I'm going to give her a

little bit of a again, watching her at Saratoga, she's not the

biggest Philly in the world and that worries me.

I want to work a little bit of scope as they stretch out in

distance. But I do trust her tactical

speed. I do trust Tom Amos.

We have to talk about some of the others in here, though.

What about pretty sure Brendan Walsh?

Here's an improbable Philly who wins first time out the dams was

second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Phillies.

Obviously the source has pedigree.

Perhaps the most interesting thing is that she's not Joe El

Rosario's first call. If they're a scratch, Claire's a

maiden gets into the race. That's where Joelle will land

and listen, Claire's charm. We talked about workouts and

company. Before her debut, she was

working in company with Jonathan's way.

We're going to talk about a little bit later.

Yeah, she also has been working at Churchill and seems to really

enjoy the track as well, so that matters to me at least.

Did you see in your mind between Ellis and Saratoga where the

better two year old races were this year?

I think they were at Saratoga, but let me tell you, Ellis is

one of the more underrated 2 year old programs.

It keeps getting better year after year after year.

The purses are there and it seems every year we get one or

two good ones and I have a feeling that Stilettos, although

she didn't win a maiden race, she won a stake, proved that she

was the real deal. She looked good winning at Lone

Star. She certainly looked good.

She did have to prove it at Ellis.

She did it at 7 and she did it by setting a fast pace.

Look at those fractions. She went sub 23 in the second

quarter, sub 22 in the first quarter.

She's battling for the lead. She's able to shrug off those

horses and beat 2 next out winners.

And she's bred as well. Her dam was second in the Grade

1 La Brea. She's fast.

Will she be able to handle other paces this heat?

I'm not sure. This is the kind of race.

Handicap the race and make your own odds line and find and then

play the overlays because you could make a case for six or

seven horses in this race. They're still they're still

unexposed, they're still inexperienced, they're still

improving. Yeah, I mentioned the 14 Liam

and the dust. I really like her here.

I think that that debut at 7 furlongs, I think I, I, I like

on debut, Dan, if a horse is willing, like she did at Ellis,

to get into a a battle with another horse and just be

willing to go forward, not be a pack animal on debut.

And I, I was pretty impressed with her first run there because

she was right there neck and neck with a couple of Phillies

going in, frankly into the turn she gets into the stretch, she

pulls away 15 to one kind of price.

Certainly it, you know, going to include her in a longer ticket,

you know, pick four, pick five kind of ticket.

But I think even for purposes of an across the board kind of bet,

I think she's really interesting.

Well, she won that debut at 7. It's never easy.

That's that's to me is almost like a route for two year olds

early in the road will win at 4 1/2 at 5 furlongs and the fact

that she was able to overcome the pace pressure going 7 and

then Cruz on home, she won that race in the matter of a workout.

She was no surprise. Everyone at the track knew she

was going to win. She was bet down to what even

money that day. I'm a little concerned about

post 14. Like what sort of trip are we

going to pull from Liam in the dust is Louis Saez, who's a very

aggressive jockey, just got a quarter horse are out of there

and try to get to the front with some of the fast horses.

Is she, is he going to take a chance being hung out wide all

the way around the track? The post is worrisome, but if

this horse runs well, all of a sudden you circle her for the

future because Rudy Brissette does a very good job.

Yeah, that would be 1 to watch for sure.

A couple races later will be the Iroquois 10th race, one mile

dirt course, 300K in the Kitty for the Grade 3.

This is 10 points, the first prep for the Kentucky Derby.

Fun fact, damn, last year's winner W Saratoga did actually

make it to the Kentucky Derby starting gate.

I think honestly, if we look back at last year's Derby trail,

what Larry Demeret did to get that horse all the way through

the year, it actually qualifies. What are the better trading jobs

we saw? Absolutely.

And you know something? He ran his horse, which is what

is always nice to see. You run your horse and you earn

your way into the Kentucky Derby and that's exactly what

happened. And he wasn't as good as those

other 3 year olds on the 1st Saturday in May.

But absolutely tip of the hat to the connections there because

they showed a lot of sportsmanship.

They ran the horse, they made money with the horse and they

got to the ultimate goal, which is to get into the starting gate

in the Derby when you're a small connection.

We will try to find the next of those horses, a horse that's

coming in. Dan, I tweeted this today

because I never thought this would happen.

I haven't been doing this very long, but I never thought this

would happen. We have a buzz horse for the

Iroquois. I reject this, by the way, but

it is almighty. There's a lot of talk about this

horse, but frankly also a lot to like about him as well.

No doubt about it both races up close on the pace and just keeps

on rolling. Winning by open lengths winning

at Ellis Spargo and seven there's the progression we

talked about 5 1/2 to 7 bread to certainly go long.

The the dam was great in steaks placed going a route of ground

on the dirt. This is a horse that's going to

get the acid test from a pace standpoint has been sort of been

facing fair paces in both of his races.

The pace is going to be fast in the Iroquois, but it's hard to

knock a horse like Owen Almighty.

But as you said, there's a lot of buzz around this horse.

I read on means he's of course going to take even more money so

demand value because while he's a logical contender and no one

will be surprised if he wins, it's not like he's this super

stand out cinch. Yeah, I think there are a couple

of others in here that are especially interesting.

We have a horse that's already 2 for two lifetime at Churchill on

the outside in, politically correct.

The 12 horse here ran in that juvenile behind Owen Almighty by

over 4 legs. How should someone handicap that

aspect, Dan, where you've got a horse that's returning to a

track where he's had success, but he's going against a horse

that he just lost to? Well, I think first of all you

have to analyze how the horse achieved the success.

And in Politically Correct's case, I think he was a little

bit dressed up going into that Ellis Park juvenile in the

debut. Just watching the races at

Churchill Downs that day, Speed was absolutely king.

Politically correct got to the lead, what I thought was a Speed

bias track and was able to win. They ran him in the Bashford

Manor and that was a race. If you ever see a Pace Meltdown

race it was the Bashford Manor where the pace was ridiculously

hot and two politically corrects credit he fell far behind and

was last, but that's where you wanted to be.

When the pace melted down and he was able to get up and win.

I wonder if he was tested and found wanting in the juvenile.

I'm not willing to write him off.

Obviously not. He's shown ability to win from

on the lead and off the pace. A sign of professionalism for a

2 year old. I just thought Owen Almighty was

better than he was in Ellis Park.

Yeah, I think that's probably right.

Another horse in here that I saw a debut up near you at Saratoga

is Jonathan's Way, the 10. This is a horse with only one

race under his belt at six furlongs.

He's got to go 8 here. Dan, what's the best way to look

at this? Is it breeding to know if he's

going to be able to get the 8? What's the what's sort of the

the the litmus test for? You here it's it's one way to

look at it. And I think if you look at the

pedigree, you might be a little bit concerned that it's speedy.

I mean, Vacomas just been a super first crop sire.

They've been winning with everything and he was a sprinter

that could go mile, A1 turn mile certainly, but the dam was very

early a stakes winning dirt sprinter as a 2 year old.

But when you watch Jonathan's weigh his debut, there's no

doubting the Source's talent. First of all, when you're Phil

Bauer and you send out a first time starter at Saratoga at 2:00

to 1:00, that's what's known as steam.

Someone knew that this Source could run a little bit.

He didn't break well at all. He swept up on the outside and

he kept on going. It was the sign of a horse that

has an immense amount of talent. He did get a figure for that

race as well. How will he break?

That's the key in this race. A lot of times we see second

time starters, once that experience is in their head,

they know what they're doing. They break better.

And that would be a boon for Jonathan's way.

If he breaks slowly, he could be in trouble.

Something tells me that the source might be the goods, at

least around one turn. Yeah, no, I think that's right.

And I think we forget, you know, because this is technically a

Derby prep. We forget that once in a while

trainers are just trying the eight furloughs because it's a 1

Turner, right? And they they see a big check

and it's it's something that they can go after.

What did you what do you think of First Resort?

There's a horse that ran last in the Saratoga Special, ran out of

steam at 6 1/2. Is there a way for a horse to

rebound after that kind of performance stand, or do you

think this is one that might be better off sticking at six?

No, absolutely. This horse can rebound.

I don't see any reason why not. A very versatile pedigree that

it should at least get a mile. The dam was a Grade 1 stakes

winner on the dirt. I think she won the La Brea at

7. Uncle Moe.

Of course the stallion can do just about anything.

A first resort was was being tested in the Saratoga Special

and got caught up in a speed duel and ran pretty well to be

second find. A very underrated Todd Pletcher

2 year old, a professional runner named Showcase.

You could argue that if Showcase is in this race, he's a big

favorite and 1st resort gave that horse all he could handle

till about the 8th pole and did a lot of dirty work from the

rail Bay. Arano's going to have to really

rush this horse and I'm concerned about what sort of

trip he's going to pull, but I don't want to give up on him

just yet. Yeah, Rafa did win this race

last year aboard W Saratoga, so he's done just that at long odds

as well. I think I have to ask you about

Sandman coming in. This is another Mark Cassie or

Magnitude coming in for Steve Asmussen.

Broke his maiden at Ellis Park under bug boy Eric Asmussen, if

you will. So either those stand out to

you. I have to be honest, I think

both have talent. I think they still have a lot to

prove to me. Magnitude just got away in my

opinion with the easiest of paces second time out at Ellis

Park and that's a Steve Asmussen MO in maiden races.

Bet him second time out, he wins first time out, but I often if

they don't perform first time out, you will see an improved

performance and that's what we got for Magnitude who walked the

dog on the lead and he's just going to be facing a much

tougher pace scenario. As for Sandman, he really ran in

his second lifetime start for Cassie, but I he just got a

perfect trip. He got great position down

towards the inside, the rail opened up, he shot on through.

He never had a stone in his path.

He's a very well bred horse by the Super stallion Tap It and a

half brother to a stake source named She Can't Sing who is a

graded stakes winner. Sandman I think has a lot of

maybe future potential in this race.

I don't want to play horses off perfect trips at short prices.

I'm curious your thoughts on 2 long shots real quick?

Yep, Miss Sarah we talked about. Yeah.

Dale Roman doesn't win first time he had Macero ready to go,

the horse got bet a sweeping move from off the pace to win,

flattered when 2 next out horses returned to win and the horses

bred. He's by not this time a great

first time starter, a sire, but also has turf and distance in

the pedigree being 1/2 the Bleeker St.

It was a very good per force back in the day that was just

very interesting, especially if there's a pace meltdown and Dale

knows how to place these maiden winners.

Yeah, he's he. I think one of the calling cards

for him before five years ago were these two year old races.

I always looked for him in the fall, especially Churchill

Downs, right. And so I think I see a bit of

the, I don't know, a little return to form, if you will, for

Dale Romans as he gets into that whatever phase.

This is a training career. I talked to him last week.

He's high on Massaro. He is.

He thinks this is a really talented horse.

Here's the thing, it was a muddy day.

That day at Ellis Park. It wasn't good.

It was muddy. It was legitimately muddy.

I don't know how he's going to take to the dirt here, but

frankly, they've been working them here, so I I'm not worried

about that part. 15 to 1 is a very nice price for the reason

that you mentioned, which was on debut.

He was willing to do that work from the back of the field of

passive horses. There's a ton of early speed in

this field. He could be one of those horses

like W Saratoga last year, just to pick up the pieces.

And a similar situation perhaps with the 9 Firmus trained by a

very good horseman, Wayne Catalano.

And when you look at this pedigree, he's a son of Curlin,

winning his debut at 3/4 of a mile.

His dam was a multiple grade 2 stakes winner.

This is another horse that showed the professionalism and

the maturity to rally from off of the pace.

So again, you may look at the buyer's speed figure and say ah,

6969's on a bad buyer's speed figure for a 2 year old.

And what August? These horses are improving by

leaps and bounds. And if you believe the Curlin's

want to go longer, maybe Firmus is a horse in the back of the

pack to at least make the bottom of your single race exotics.

But as I like, I like to say, in these sort of races, you can

make a case for five or six, make your own fair odds line and

then play your overlays. Dale Robbins did win this race.

Was sitting on GO in 2020 and Dennis's moment.

What a name. Oh man, Dennis's moment in 2019.

He was the bee's knees man he was.

Everybody loved Dennis's moment. The wheels came off but for the

first start or two me something. You know another horse just like

that is running this weekend at Churchill Downs in Hoosier,

Philly. As a 2 year old, she couldn't

miss man. Oh my God, I got crushed.

I got crushed for liking her. I don't.

I don't like that I got crushed for that.

I don't think you were wrong for liking her because when you saw

her win she was super impressive.

When the talk started to get of she's not just an Oaks Philly,

she's a Derby Philly. At the end of the year.

Maybe that was being overblown and we just put a little bit too

much pressure on Hoosier Philly, but she listened as a 2 year old

super. You mentioned a little bit too

much pressure on a Philly. Do you like Torpedo Anna going

to the Cotillion instead of the Pennsylvania Derby?

Yes, OK, I do too. She took her shot in the

Traverse. She proved she's just as good as

those sources, Kenny realizes now.

Everything is so muddled, isn't it?

The older male division is so muddled.

The three-year olds, they're getting better, they're good.

But you could argue she's if not the best, the second best, with

fiercely their noses apart and that's where they are in the

rankings. She wins the cotillion.

She beats idiomatic in a dare manner and randomized and raging

sea in the Breeders Cup Distaff and there's even a hint of

chaos. She's horse of the year.

I'm with you. There you go.

Well he's Dan Ellman at DRF under score.

Dan Ellman, tell all the people where your much better produced

videos are. Oh, our much better produced

videos are at the Daily Racing Forum YouTube channel.

Head on over there. We've got stakes previews from

some of DRF's best handicappers and me.

And you can also find my stakes previews and recaps for the

Mid-Atlantic areadrf.com. Dan.

'S. Yeah, Louie, use that promo code

Louie, Dan's favorite, Dan's dad's favorite handicapper Mike

Beer available on that website. So there you go.

My father wish Mike Beer was his son.

There it is. We, we, we all kind of do.

All right. Well, get out of get him out of

here. Thank you, Dan.

We appreciate it. All right, there you go.

Dan Elman with us from the DRF. I'm Louie Rabo.

This is the horse racing happy hour out here live at Churchill

Downs Thursday Night Racing. We got one more left in about 10

minutes. So I'm gonna get going on the

last couple of races out there on Saturday.

Again, I'll be out here if you want to come hang out in Section

320. You're welcome to do that.

Dan talk to you through races, 8:00 and 10:00.

I'm going to do 7 and 9 now. The Locust Grove is the

beginning of that late pick five.

It's mile to 16th race, Grade 2 on the dirt, $400,000 in the

Kitty here. This is for Phillies and mares 3

and up horses in here that people will know for sure the

favorite's going to be almost certainly in this case, boy, I

say that Shotgun Hottie's almost certainly going to be the the

favorite of this race, coming in only one win in six runs this

year. I think she's going to be a

worthy favorite though coming out of the seven hole for Jorge

Ortiz. She did win the Allaire DuPont

over Preak this weekend. It's kind of started her on a

nice chain of good races all in a row in that grade 2 flirtily

here at Ritual Downs, finishing second by a neck Tacilla, who

they tried later in grade one company out on the West Coast as

well. So I think she's going to be a

worthy favorite in here for sure.

Behind her I have tax the three horse.

I'm a little chalky here, but nine to two for Brian Hernandez

junior and trainer Randy Morse. This horse last three times out

in the groupie doll at a mile at Ellis Park.

Frankly felt like they didn't quite know what to do.

Pagile, who's also in this race, picks up the pieces, wins that

race by a neck over Fancy. I am interested to see her get

back to Churchill Downs where she has won 2 / 5 lifetime

starts. She'll get back to this

distance, which she's never won at, which is really interesting.

She was a really good third though in that Fleur de Lis.

I think she's at least going to be part of the equation at the

end of the race. Would not be surprised if we

ended with A73 type. Exacta Loved is in here.

I mentioned Pagal as well. She's 2 for four.

Pagal is at 8:00 to 1:00 here for the axe man Luan Machado, 2

seconds as well. In four races at Churchill Downs

lifetime, she hasn't won at the distance, but also frankly she

hasn't run at the distance too often.

She's been running at a mile at different places, one in the

slap at a mile here at Churchill and then after that ran in that

kind of mile 1 1/2 turn sort of thing at Ellis Park in the

groupie doll that was off a layoff from May to August.

She's actually second up in her form cycle here.

So I think Pagal, the five horse here is actually a really,

really interesting entry for trainer Tommy Drury and I think

you'd be crazy to leave loved out of your handicap.

The four here, you get Tyler, you get Brendan Walsh, the two

of them hitting right red. About 20% of Churchill Downs

together in graded stakes. Not a great run so far this year

for trainer Brendan Walsh, but this horse, one for One Lifetime

at Churchill Downs did win an allowance after her maiden win.

First time against against winners.

Has one at Keeneland, has one at Churchill, has one at at Ellis

Park as well. Ran in the Molly Pitcher last

year. Ran in that Double dog Dare

earlier in the year at Keeneland.

So it's been in good company before.

Shouldn't be overwhelmed in this company at all.

Race 9 is gonna be the Louisville Thoroughbred Society.

This is a Listed stakes, 6 furlongs on the dirt and of

course it's Churchill down. So we're doing six, $300,000 for

a 6 furlong Listed stakes here. I ran Ortiz in to ride on

Saturday. Dan pointed that out.

Trust, trust your handicapping on your horses.

A guy like Irad's going to attract a lot of money.

Go ahead and trust your handicapping.

But I will say he's on the best horse in this race and close the

game. Sugar shipped out for the grade

one Bing Crosby. Something we wrote about at the

Sporting Tribune. Lost to the chosen Bron.

No shame in losing to the chosen Bron.

On the West Coast at six furlongs.

Ran a 101 buyer that race. Last three buyers 9999101.

Guess where those first two were?

They were at Churchill Downs. This, this horse loves this

course. This also feels like the kind of

race that I read. RT simply doesn't lose.

And so look for this horse who ran under Umberto Raspoli on the

West Coast to come back here, pick.

I read back up and do exactly what he did in the Kelly's

Landing and in the Aristides this year in June to win both.

There are other horses in here that are really interesting and

I think could be part of the equation at the end.

Doo Doo, got to look at my notes.

There goes Skelly's in here, the 10 on the outside.

I think that's a must include here.

His numbers out of control good. Ran in the Grade 1 Vanderbilt

last time at Saratoga, ran a good second behind Nakatomi.

No one was beating Nakatomi that day.

He ran a one O 9 and change 6 furlongs at Saratoga.

That's going to be pretty tough to beat and so I'm not going to

hold that against him. But after that, I think Decker

Island's a really interesting horse here.

Five wins at 16. Lifetime starter starts for this

7 year old son of Hardspud. He's still going, he's still

running. He's won both of his races this

summer, man, and I love that stuff.

He goes out to Iowa, wins the Sprint over six furlongs in a

Buck 9 and change just like Skelly, you know, excuse me,

just like Nakatomi at Saratoga. So if he can get back to that

kind of form and get back to those numbers that he's run here

before, I think he can absolutely be part of the

equation at the end of the race as well.

And disco ball is in here. The five longer shot here I

think could be a problem. Ran really well last time out at

Saratoga, backing up a performance at Delaware Park

before that. Has to drop off Lasix I think

for the first time in his career for this 7 year old gelding.

And this, this is how I know I'm old.

Zach Orb is his dad and Orb won the Derby, won the Derby that I

attended. So a 7 year old son of Orb is

running in this race. Interesting to see if he keeps

that form going. But he's 4 for six this year.

He's been running in Santa Anita, Delaware, like I

mentioned last up at Saratoga. So this horse has been on the

board at Santa Anita, at Delaware Park and at Saratoga

winning four of those six races. Will be interested to see his

debut here at Churchill Downs. It's just a quick pick for the

last race in case you're looking for a play in the last race.

It's a 2 year old, excuse me, a 2 year old maiden race here,

$120,000 here we are going two turns a mile and a 16th for two

year olds. So this might be one to watch

for horses that might eventually ship or play Excuse Me run in

the Kentucky Jockey Club at the end of November here.

Homer's Odyssey is going to be in here.

I just like that name. But Tickled Quest is where I

landed the 5 second timer for for Brad Cox.

This horse going from the mile in Ellis Park to a mile and a

16th. Obviously they think this son of

Nyquist wants to go the two turns.

Trainer Brad Cox will certainly have him ready to go on

Saturday. I look to the 11 then on the

outside in Kinetic Control. It's the second timer for Dale

Romans. We talked about his acumen with

two year olds here. Corey Landry gets them out.

Ran over 7 furlongs at Ellis Park.

Ran really well. Frankly, if that race is

probably another half of furlong long, he wins it and so I'll be

interested to watch him. This the sort of not This Time

stretch out to the mile and 16 going two turns here at

Churchill. I think he'll like it quite a

bit. Seattle Rd. is in here.

The 8 horse at 12 to one. Jaime Torres won the Preakness

this year. Word for Tom Amos, second time

starter here. This is easily, in my opinion,

Tom Amos's best angle is the second time starter wins at 16%.

With those horses. It is coming in off a little bit

of a layoff at the end of July. So that horse coming in, that's

a 21% angle. They'll throw the blinkers on.

So look for that horse to be on the lead early.

And finally, in that race, I'd look at so Sandy, the six, 12:50

Cherie Devoe, man, she's having a summer hitting at 15% this

year. Was a firster, did nothing at

Ellis Park, man, that means almost nothing to me.

Second timers for her. Hit at 18% picks up Jose Ortiz

in the mount and all he's done is win a fifth of his races this

year. All right, Zach, come on up to

the screen. We'll get out of here.

But I wanted to thank our friends over at a Sporting

Tribune. But you can catch me every

Saturday. My column this week will be

about the Iroquois, the road to the Derby.

We'll get into Santa Anita when they start running there again

there at Los. It's Southern Cal this weekend,

so I want to thank everyone hanging out with us, Vegas,

Hawaii, LA or San Diego, wherever you are watching the

show. Zach, did you learn anything

today? I learned that half of the

abbreviations Dan uses that I don't understand.

He also favors, the thing I learned today is he favors

experience over first timers. Now don't get stuck on the 1st

timers. I think that's an interesting

thing to point out to the audience and I appreciate that.

Do you have the Dolphins or the Bills tonight?

Oh, I am 100% dolphins. OK, All right.

Taking the home team tonight. There you go.

I think the Bills are gonna sneak down there.

I'll win by three. So there you go.

All right, well, let's get out. Of you know, Louis, there are

lies and damn lies and the Bills winning against the Dolphins,

OK. You can find us at Horse Happy

Hour and you can find me at Radio Louie and of course at

Sporting Trib. If you want to find us on the on

the old Sporting Trib as well, make sure you go follow them.

Great supporters of the horse racing happy hour as well.

manscapemanscape.com promo code horse racing.

Get that 20% off free shipping to your house, Zach.

We'll be back at it next week. We'll be talking Churchill, but

of course talking Santa Anita opening weekend as well.

All right, let's head out for another edition of the Horse

Racing Happy Hour. Thank you, Dan.