David Levitch | Gulfstream & NOLA

Life is good. A quick fading of the music

while I sip my coffee. This is the Horse Racing Happy

Hour, December 19th edition of the show.

David Levitch back in with us today.

A fresh off the set at Churchill Downs.

You big Timer, how are you? It was, yeah.

I'm doing good. That was a fun experience.

I did it last year a little bit, but this year I got to work with

Joe and Tony for the first time. Tony, Caleb, you had a good

time, but everything's good. Yeah, good man.

Yeah, basketball season has kicked up for you guys.

How are how's the season going so far?

How's your roster? Everything's good.

We we should actually lost our first.

We have a whole new team. Lost our first two games.

We won five straight. We won our first game in the

King of the Bluegrass last night.

So nice, we're in the just moving on in the winners bracket

Friday night. We play at 9:00 tomorrow night

so it's going to be a little past my bedtime but I guess I'll

I'll be able to make it through. Coach Kelsey at your game

yesterday. No, he would.

We actually played 430 yesterday.

I think he went to the same X game at 7:30.

So we were already gone at that point, but maybe tomorrow night.

There you go, catch the coaches down there.

People don't know if you're listening to around the country.

King of the Bluegrass, one of the great high school basketball

tournaments anywhere, frankly, held every year in the southern

part of the Louisville area. And so just a spectacular thing.

David, obviously a local high school coach here, wanted to

have you on ahead of these races, both the Gulfstream Park

and Fairgrounds, of course, with the Derby Prep and the Gun

Runner, but kind of wanted to get your impressions overall of

what's been happening this season.

But I wanted to start. You mentioned Tony Calo.

I went up the Turfway on Saturday for the synthetic

championships and I haven't gotten to do, you know, write a

piece about this or or do the big intro.

And I think it will be my intro on the Kentucky Racing Spotlight

tomorrow. But David, I don't know if

synthetic is the future or whatever.

You hear all this talk about saving horse racing and blah,

blah, blah. I do know though, that if they

keep doing it that way, it's going to be a nice addition to

the sport, right? Just another good betting option

with full fields, all those kinds of things.

Anytime in December, David, that I can get twelve horses in every

race of a pick four, I'll definitely take it.

I mean, even the horse quality that day was unbelievable.

Yeah, I mean, Christophe Clemont had like two or three horses.

Like there was people shipping in from New York.

If you would have gone through that car.

That's probably the best winter card so far of anywhere.

Gulfstream, Oaklawn Fairgrounds, that was the best winter card

overall. And that place is just, I mean,

if you can figure it out, it's just you get paid.

It's just tricky. But yeah, like you said,

synthetic. I mean Belmont Park, when they

reopen in the winter, they're going synthetic all winter.

You'll have Turfway all winter. And then Gulfstream Park, they

barely even run dirt races anymore outside of their main,

their main days. But during the week it's 5 or 6

synthetic races, so well, we're. Seeing it, Santa Anita's going

to, they're been training on it and with their rules about

sealing the track, with John Lindo on the program last week

and with their rules about sealing the track, it's

inevitable that it's going to be part of their series.

And frankly for California, David, with how much there's an

emphasis on the turf racing out there, frankly, synthetic just

makes sense for what they do. Yeah, and I guess the Golden

Gate horses. Obviously there's no more Golden

Gate those horses. Cheaper races on synthetic.

It'll get better field. Can't they only run 8 though or

something in the field size? I think the field size is

limited to like 8 or something on synthetic because of the

track configuration, but I mean anything to help?

Count here's 8's better than five, I mean.

Yeah, anything at this? Point, give me eight horses.

I remember even a couple years ago, you know, the hubbub about

the, the turf course at fairgrounds and people being

like, oh, they're only getting eight in the gate.

I'm like just give me 8 in the gate like.

Eight's not a big three. Or 8's fine for for a pick three

or something like that. Exactly.

Probably. Yeah, right.

And so I think, you know, I just, I was just reading about a

track that year over year, Oh, Del Mar, Del Mar went from 7 1/2

to 7.8 starters a race. Hey, give me 8 starters.

Like, what are we doing here? I mean, it'd be totally fine.

So all right, just I wanted to get that in first.

I'll, I'll definitely open with that tomorrow on the Kentucky

Racing Spotlight and catch that at 6:00 on ESPN 680-1057 here in

Louisville. But to this point, man, your

impressions of 2024. We had Brian Hernandez junior on

the spotlight show a couple weeks ago.

Obviously what he's done with Kenny as far as the Derby, the

Oaks, the the Clark triple Torpedo, Anna, what she's meant

to the sport, I mean, is she, would you be able to vote?

I'm an Eclipse voter. Would you be able to vote for a

three-year old Philly who only once beat older horses as Horse

of the Year overall, given what we've seen in 2024?

I think because she won the distaff she's probably going to

win horse of the year. I think this is pretty capped

and obvious. I think if Fierceness would have

won the Classic, he would have fallen away.

But it's it's just I think because Sierra Leone was not

inconsistent, but he never put together a lot of wins.

He only won the Bluegrass and the Young Classic, obviously the

Classic's most important race. But then Fierce's beat him twice

at Saratoga. But then the Philly won.

She won all her races. She won out with a win.

I know the Distaff this year was without idiomatic.

You couldn't really get a good gauge.

So I think she'll win horse of the year.

She also has a huge following. I agree.

And they've done a good job with her.

We were out there on Clark Day. They handed out the pink hats

and they played all that kind of stuff.

I mean, that's those are. But David, you know this, that's

just a good idea. And I'm glad that they're, you

know, the Mcpeek folks are have figured that out, right?

And I don't, yeah. And I don't think Horse of the

Year means you're the best horse in the country.

She had the best year campaign of anybody.

I think Fearsus is here alone are better horses than her.

But she had a better, I guess you would say a better season

based on she won every race pretty much, I think.

Did you want every race you ran in?

Except for the Travers, yeah. Yeah, except for the Travers.

Yeah, 1 fierceness beater. So yeah, Wiggins, Phillies.

Yeah, she won all her Philly. Rides OK, Yeah, she never lost

to a Philly. That's exactly right.

Because she lost the golden rod last year, didn't she?

Was it the golden rod she lost? She did lose as a 2 year old and

I'm trying to think. Yeah, I think it was a

Churchill. I think that Walsh Philly

beater. But yeah, I'm just going off

just. Talking.

No, that's all right. Yeah.

No, I think that she's definitely in that kind of

driver's seat. Before we came out here, you

were talking about like older dirt male this year, like good

luck really. We get our balance for the the

Eclipse Awards and I'm looking around and I'm like, how much

did Arthur's ride do this year? You know, yeah, it's is it him,

the Baffert horse that won the Pegasus escaping me, the

national treasure? I'm sure he's he'll probably

win. I would have say.

That sounds right. Let me pull up the Arthur's

rides on here. Full Serrano gun pilot.

Highland Falls hit show. Kings Barns, Meekstow, Mullikin,

Nakatomi, national treasure, Newgate next.

I guess you could make a case for next right, if you if you

wanted to purely go on just his just his wins.

But you know, 4 for five all of them on dirt.

Of course, Pyrenees rattle and roll rattle.

World's an interesting one. It's too bad he didn't he didn't

race more Senor buscador, Skippy, long stocking straight,

no chaser substantador and tap it trice.

So there you go. I might, you know, post time was

in here as well. I don't know.

I think I think Next is going to get some votes just because I

think people, he's so dominating.

He also has a following. Yeah, I think that's right.

So and and frankly those are easy connections to like as well

with the with the folks taking care of him we.

Don't. It doesn't seem like it's going

to be a problem with four year olds this year.

We seem like we got everybody coming back.

Final. Well, I want yeah.

And I was going to ask you about that.

And you say finally that's it's an interesting word for you to

throw on there because I was going to ask you, do you think

that we just went through a blip where all those 3 year olds ran

off to the breeding shed or is that are we getting lucky with

this next year? Will we see more years like

2025? I don't know.

Well in the past five or ten years this seems pretty lucky

because most 3 year olds, I mean horses like fierceness in Sierra

Leone are almost never coming back anymore.

Right now they seem to be horses that are both getting better.

You have locked you have mind frame you have I'm probably for

I mean you have 4 legit horses right there that you usually

don't get to see and like got hurt.

He just came back on the Cigar mile.

So maybe the way his and then you get horses like maybe rattle

and roll coming back like you're going to have some horses.

Last year they were you know, that AB plus range older horses

now that you're going to mix them with them.

It seems like finally 3 year old's turning 4.

We might actually have some competitive races this year,

some Whitney and all those. Yeah, we might.

It might actually be that, you know, maybe a horse like

Stronghold makes a return and gets better as a four year old

son of ghost zapper. Yeah, Mystic Dan's going to have

to be one of those as well. Obviously we'll see him on the

26th out at Santa Anita, so hopefully that's a great run for

him. But yeah, you're right.

I mean, we're, we're, we're really leaning on a couple of

really good horses, but with a bunch of potential to be, you

know, much better as 4 year olds, you know, especially with

the breeding, if, you know, if you run into a gun runner, we

watch dad do all of his best running at 4:00 and 5:00.

And so maybe, you know, Sierra Leone, what if Sierra Leone gets

markedly better? I mean, that's, you know, that's

on the table if Pierce's gets a lot better, right?

I mean, I think it'd be pretty great.

Yeah, and there's just so much talent coming back and it'll be

interesting to see where they all land because you're going to

probably try to avoid. Some will go to Saudi, some will

go to Dubai. I know Pierce's had a little set

back, but so you probably see him more in the summer, spring,

summer. But yeah, it's interesting to

see where they all come back at. I know mine frame just started

training again. You mentioned I'm missing Dan.

Interesting spot for him, by the way.

If he wins that race, would people start throwing him in the

three-year old boat because he would have the Derby obviously

in that, which makes it kind of like, I don't know why they're

running in that race. It's kind of like it's an

interesting spot, in my opinion, to ship all the way there for

seven furlongs. I got to imagine that #1 San

Anita is paying for him to ship. I got to imagine #2 even a

second place check in a $300,000 race makes the trip worth it,

right? It is a prestigious race.

It is a prestigious race. So if he gets 70 grand out of

that or whatever on 2nd and that's a warm up race, getting

back into something overseas, I mean, that might not be the end

of the world. I haven't heard.

Do you know with Mystic, are they planning to keep him

stateside or is he going to the Arabian Peninsula?

Do we know? I'm sure everybody's going this

Saudi. If they're ready and.

It's also A1 turn race, so it kind of like, you know, if you

can do two turns and you're a good one turn horse, it kind of

like it really can throw you in like fierceness.

For example. If he was in that race, he'd be

pretty darn hard to beat in my opinion, because of the one turn

figures. And so it kind of it's I think

why Debarrio too, But who knows what that horse he's running

next week or two weeks in the Mr. next week.

So you'll have him as well if he comes back ready to fire.

Yeah, I think we were supposed to see him tomorrow in the

Harlan's holiday. Yeah, they're going to the one

turn race. Yeah, they're going to the one

Miller with him. I think they're trying to find

out if he's a 1 Turner. Like, you know, he's pretty good

in the Cigar Mile. So I mean, I'm sure, I'm sure

he'll be fine trying the the mile at this point.

Baffert has the top two in the Derby standings at this point.

David, do you think we've seen the Derby winner win a stakes

race to this point? No, I, well, I shouldn't say no.

I think Baffert is going to probably try to get eight horses

in the Derby this year, so I don't.

Want. To I don't want to say Baffert

is, I mean you would you look at it like Pletcher really hasn't

unveiled anything. Cox really hasn't unveiled any

dirt horses. He's got every Philly known to

man coming back for three. He's got five of them, I think,

but I think I mean Chad Brown really hasn't.

He'll have Chancellor coming back but we don't know if he can

go two turns, so I don't know. I think the one in the Derby the

last couple years, I think the later the better.

It seems now almost like these maiden winners get one or two

preps in and then you go. Yeah, that seems to be the case

for sure. He's David Levitch joins us

here. He's at Panic Prince on Twitter.

You want to go find his stuff there?

Where can people find you, David?

Horse Racing Nation, you just go to expert picks and I'm right

under that tab. See Paddock, Prince, Gulfstream

Park right now, Derby preps, all that good stuff.

There you go, I'll go find him there.

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Let's get into some of that handicapping here, David.

We head down to Gulfstream Park. We're talk late pick 4 here.

If you are not familiar with betting Gulfstream, probably

unusual if you're listening to this show, but 17% on those win

play shows, 15% on the pick fives and the tropical turf.

As far as take out, do not play the tries of the superfectas by

take out standards at Gulfstream Park.

Otherwise very, very playable place.

The Janice is race 8. A note here that the 12F Anna

will not run in this race. That horse will run up here at

Turfway Park instead. 5 furlongs on the turf here.

David I I thought a pretty tough one since Arzak's the favorite

in here. He's got one win in Holiday.

I printed this, I didn't have them.

Is he the morning line favorite I.

Was going is 2 to one, yeah. So I mean it just one for six

this year anytime I land in a race with that kind of odds,

David, I mean, it stands out for sure.

Yeah, and you know what? The thing about him is?

His base days might be behind him.

I don't know if this 5 for long distances.

I mean, it's so sharp like. If.

You watch Gulfstream Park, you know, in a 5 furlong race, you

got to have some speed or you got to have a huge set up to

really run because it just seems like these there's these races

are just so forwardly dominated. There's a lot going on in this

race. I mean, Cox is getting two

horses in the five. Yes, I am free.

And the seven, that's right. Both have speed.

We all know Brad. I think he sent thirty horses or

something down there this year, so he's going to be a guy that's

going to have horses. I wanted a little price in here.

I'd landed on the one Masetto thought.

His life I think is if you look at his form, his turf sprints

are really good. His one at Woodbine last year

was good and then his comeback race on the turf, or should I

say back on the turf last time with Churchill was pretty good.

I'm just going to hope he sits the middle of the pack trip, get

some speed. But if I was playing a pick four

in here, I'd try to use a lot, and I don't even know if I would

use our Zack. I I think if you're trying to

get value late in the sequence, I'm I'm with you.

I'm going to I'm looking at another longer odds horse here

too. The two horse David XY speed in

here, 7 for fourteen wins straight up lifetime at

Gulfstream Park seems to be horse for the course.

Last time out was that 5 furlong distance in 54 and one David.

That's a winning time in any race.

So if that horse can run back to that kind of speed, I think

he'll be just fine in this spot. 8 year old gelded son of her

samurai got. Away and he's the horse.

That's the profile. Forward.

Speed doesn't need the lead. Consider a length or two off.

Speed comes back, he makes that first run, holds off the

closers. Yeah, I agree.

I think that horse has a big shot.

I mean, even if you look at the 8 horse for Safi, the axe them,

I mean this horse is good at Gulfstream, handle the distance.

Safi wins a million races at Gulfstream throughout the year,

so he knows the turf. But yeah, I would.

If I'm playing a pick 4 here, I'm probably spreading, maybe

trying to get rid of Arzak. Arzak seems like a horse you

almost single because you just think he's better in his old

form or you just get rid of him because he's going to be 8:00 to

5:00 with Irad. He's always getting over bet

with Irad. Yeah, no, that's exactly right.

I'm also interested Coppola isn't here for Dale Romans.

Yeah, I throw. Him in my pick 4.

Yeah, I think he's definitely part of the play here.

Was really good in the Woodford. I don't know if people remember

he actually got the lead in the stretch before being overtaken

by both our shot and Charcoal in that in that race.

But this is a horse that's been up against, you know, Cogburn

against Charcoal. Like I mentioned, really, really

high level horses. I don't want to say this is a

step down, but boy, it's not the same kind of level that he's

been in in other spots. And so I think Coppola's got a

real shot here. I think he'll get all a six to

one too. Yeah, I completely agree with

you. His Jyper, I mean, if he runs

that race only, I mean that was a blistering fast race obviously

with Cogburn. But yeah, I mean I got him in my

I got him in my pick 4 as well. He's got speed like I mentioned,

there's this race is the type of race it looks like there's so

many speeds. It's like, oh, here goes just

one somehow one just going to get the lead and wire of the

field. But I mean this pace has to be

hot. So I want to look for a horse

like you picked or IA couple links off the pace maybe doesn't

need the lead price shopping in here.

Yeah, no, I think that's totally legit.

The Grade 3 is the Harlan, the Harlan's holiday.

Excuse me, Mile the 16th on the main track there, $165,000 in

the Kitty of the return of a couple of horses.

I'm sure many of you listening have followed before.

Tuscan Sky in here, who I cannot figure out.

David Tumba. Rumba, of course, will be your

8:00 to 5:00 morning line favorite in here.

Kick. Trafalgar is gonna try to go two

turns. I got to tell you, I am

fascinated by digital OPS in here for some reason.

The four horse comes out of the brown barn.

Safi first time with horses hits at 27%.

Now usually that's lower level claimers.

I totally understand. But he is very good at taking

horses not from his barn and placing them in new company.

One in a mile and three sixteenths last time is going to

go a shorter distance here. But in the two winning runs for

this horse in five lifetime starts, David, both under Dylan

Davis and getting to the front and staying in front, I think

they'll try to do that with this son of Nyquist.

I'll take digital OPS in an upset win here.

The four in the Harlan's holiday.

Yeah, I didn't really know what to do with this horse because

like you said, if he doesn't get the lead, he doesn't run and

they're throwing blinkers on. But he is coming from Chad

Brown, so I don't know how much. I know Saffy's good at

Gulfstream, but I don't know how much Saffy can improve a horse

off Chad Brown. They did pay 400,000 at the most

recent sales, so they obviously have some hopes for this horse

off some nice wins. I mean, yeah, I can see it

especially at Gulfstream Park on the dirt, the stretch, it just

it just leans towards horse with speed.

It's one of those most dirt races do, but this is definitely

a track. When you mentioned Tuscan Sky,

it's funny you bring that up about him.

His last race. If you just look at it on paper,

you're like, yeah, he ran fine. But if you actually watch the

race, he was in a full out duel the entire the entire race with

the the horse the. Generous horse.

I can't think of horse's name, but the horse that won, Generous

Tipper, was off the pace and just walked just past him

because of the way the triple. I thought Tuscan Sky ran huge in

that race. To be honest.

I think he's going to get the lead from the rail.

I mean, I don't, I don't know if he needs the lead from the rail,

but I think they're going to send him out of there.

He won in the Pegasus, not the real Pegasus, the Pegasus with a

rail draw. So I the rail shouldn't bother

him. I'm single him in here.

The horse I don't really love is Tumba Rumba.

I think he's a cool horse, but I don't know what the I don't

know. He's not really.

I don't know if his he's the second.

Place horse, it's OK. No, he's the 2nd place horse.

Yeah, I think there's, I like your horse and my horse.

I think there's horses on the improve now that I think you're

if they can run a better, if they can run their a race and

keep improving, I think they're better than Tumbarumba at this

point. But Tumbarumba is a cool horse.

He runs at a lot of distances. Rocket Can is in here.

I had forgotten that horse was in the Derby.

How about that? Man, he was bad.

He he he was bad last time. Yeah, he was.

Didn't he win the Yeah, it was the Holy Bowl.

I remember that. Yes, he won the Holy Bowl, went

ran pretty well actually in the Fountain of Youth behind Forte.

That was the day nobody was beating Forte.

That was like his coming out party was that that found of

youth race? And then obviously they tried

him in the Arkansas Derby behind Angel of Empire.

But yeah, it I'd forgotten, but I just I don't think he wins

without Lasix at this point in his career.

So, you know, just one for six this year.

His only other win in his only win in 24 was under Flavi and

Pratt. And every horse that was under

Flavi and Pratt course, you're one race so.

I don't think he made two mistakes the entire year.

No, that's exactly right. But yeah, it's still sunshine

too. Local horse.

Like, I was just going to ask you about him because he is the

local option here. Lionel Reyes gets them out here.

Do you think he's got a reasonable shot here?

I thought his last race was pretty good, actually.

He made a nice run from way back.

Obviously you don't get Paco today, who rides him in pretty

much every start, so I think he's fine.

I don't think he's as good as Tuscan Sky or some of these

other horses, so he's going to need a little bit of a setup,

but I'm going to lean on Tuscan side here.

All right, David Levitch with us here on the Horse Racing Happy

Hour. It's a December 19th edition of

the show, running through the late four pick four at

Gulfstream Park. Fort Lauderdale is a Grade 2

mile and an eighth on the turf course there at Gulfstream Park,

running for $215,000 here for three and up.

David, another fun one. Frankly, I thought this field

was awesome. I landed on the.

I landed on the four in major. Dude feels like the kind of race

where he might breakthrough here after a couple of good works

down there at Palm Beach Downs. four-star Dave didn't work out

for him, but I don't think anyone was beating Carl Spackler

that day. Before that though, we saw him

in some good optional claiming company at Saratoga at the

Distance for example. Came back and won his allowance

last out at Keeneland. Keeps Irad here.

I don't think I'll get 5 to one, but I'll take Major Duda on.

Top, I completely agree with you.

We agree for the first time today.

That was I thought his last race was actually really good.

He sat in the pocket and he really he really exploded.

And outside of you Mike, you mentioned his four-star Dave.

I know they were all allowance races, but he's looked really

good this year so I'm going to bank on him sitting that little

couple links off Pocket Trip with Irad.

The horse I did not know what to do with in here was Win for the

Money, the morning line favorite.

I I can't tell if this horse is I don't know.

His huge figure was in that weak race at Gulfstream last year and

he never really ran it again. And then he ran a huge race at

Woodbine again and now he's here.

I mean, I, is he really a five to two?

I mean, I know he can win the race and I have him in my bed,

so I'm going to use him. I just I don't know what to do

with that horse. I can't I don't get AI don't

have a good read on him. I he's kind of they stare at

you, those one on two buyers. But really, do you really trust

this horse at a short price if he's really going to be two to

1/5 to two? I'll tell you the one that I

can't figure out a siege of Boston.

So James trying to break his horse and and he was in the lead

had it won at Aqueduct last out. He just in the knickerbocker and

just doesn't win. And so yeah, he just doesn't win

man. And so the Seven Siege of

Boston. By the way, folks, if you need

an exact horse, there's. There's yeah, he's right

underneath. Yeah, that's right.

He's a nice horse and Grant Snod is coming out of the Breeders

Cup, so yeah, he's going to take money.

But if you pay attention in Kentucky Downs, you know the

rail is where you want to be. Gafflione gave that horse

perfect ride in the Kentucky Turf Cup, right up the rails.

So I like the other pleasure over him.

But I wouldn't surprise me if grandson Auto won.

Who's the other pleasure? Major Dude?

How about that? We are both on Major Dude in

this one. It's I'd look for for him.

Gosh, what do you think the actual odds will be by the time

they get to race time with Major Dude?

7:00 to 2:00. That sounds right.

OK. I will take seven to two in

that. It's still hard to tell with

Irad too. I mean, a Gulfstream, he's

winning at like 40% already. It's so he's if this race was at

Saratoga, he's probably 4 to 192.

But since it's a Gulfstream, the source is probably 3 to 172 just

because of Thyrad, a Gulfstream. Yeah, it seems to be how it

goes. The Swati River will be the

Grade 3 to close the card. It's a mile on the turf course

for Phillies and Mares 3 and up, $165,000 in the Kitty here.

David, I thought another. This is just a fun closing.

Yeah, just a tough race, too. You're totally right.

I landed on another Dylan Davis here.

Christophe Clamas sends breath away.

I hate the 11, but I really like this horse.

Has been part of the final equation at Saratoga, Aqueduct

and Aqueduct in a row. Grade 3A listed stakes or black

type, I should say, last time out as well.

It's gonna sit 3-4 lengths off the speed and try to pick up the

pieces at the end, which I trust Dylan Davis to do also.

Really just like the price you're you're following

Gulfstream closer than I am. Is the 11 hole going to be a

problem in the mile race here? It's not ideal, but the meat is

young. I just started really following

it for the last couple, you know, two weeks or whatever.

But it's just this horse does like Gulfstream too.

Horses that seem to like Gulfstream or horses that really

take to those tight turns. And this horse is like kind of

an in between a Miller and a six furlong, A7 furlong horse.

So I think the tight turns at Gulfstream really help her.

But yeah, I have her in there. I landed on the 1 Ocean Club.

I'm just going to take a chance with her from the inside.

I don't know if she's good enough to beat these, but I

think she has enough forward speed that if she can work out a

good trip from the inside, she's going to be a price.

I'm going to give her a shot in there.

But I used your horse. I didn't know what to do with

the 12. Bless my stars.

The euro import. That is not a good post.

Obviously being 1 outside of breadth away works look fine but

I didn't that's that's a hard but you got to be much the best

in your US debut from way out there.

So I will probably watch and see with her but I landed on the one

in here. I thought her last one was

pretty good in The Noble Damsel. No, I think it's a reasonable

play for sure. The sisters embark there.

Edwin Gonzales. I'm trying to figure out

Papilio, the four in here, David.

One win and six tries this year seems to be part of the equation

for most of these races. Does Oliver running late?

I just don't know if the miles long enough in my brain.

Except that she's 2 for three lifetime with a second place

gets back to Castellano. I wonder if he won't be helpful

for what it is that she does best.

Yeah, she's she's definitely a good horse to use at 15 to one

underneath at least. I don't know if she can win this

race because I don't know if she's good enough, but if this

pace gets hot, I mean, I guess she could win Enterprise.

But yeah, underneath I think she's she's always shown

ability, but she's never like broken through like you're

always like, oh, she's back. Like she's going to get it.

That Cassie had another horse too, the same age and I cannot

think of the name. He won the one of the races at

Churchill this year. It's going to come to me in a

minute. But anyways, it's kind of the

similar horse, same age and everything.

They were running at the same time.

I'm going to look this horse up, but that's what kind of horse I

think she is, a horse that can win on her best day, but she

also needs a huge set up. Chad Brown sends Saffron Moon to

the post here. Half a length loser at

Keeneland. Last out in October, but this is

essentially second off the layoff here.

It's web Slinger by the way. Sorry to.

Call web Slinger OK. Like the same type of horse, it

just needs that wicked set up. Yeah, go ahead on Saffron Moon,

though. Yeah, no, you're fine.

But with Saffron Moon, just you know, the six to one hasn't won

this year, hasn't really raced a lot ever, frankly, but picks up

Tyler here. I I think that's that horse is

in a terrific spot. Second off the layoff.

Here, the only thing that bothers me about horses like

that, if they're not winning at short prices for him on the

turf, it's kind of like it's kind of hard for me to take

because he wins races and he wins when he's bet on the turf

most of the time. As we all know, he wins about

every single turf stakes known to man from April to November,

so I think she's not the horse that confused me was Be Your

Best because I don't know where that I guess the speed came

from, the race being a marathon race last time out, but before

that she was terrible. I That one's tough for me too,

but I do like Edgar Zionist out. There was not getting the lead

is my thing. So like I don't if she's not

getting the lead, can she run her best race because.

I don't know how she's a one for her last 12.

I mean like, you know, at some point just.

It was like a fluky race almost. She got the lead going long.

Frankie just kind of walked the dog and was able to hang on.

And Safi was at that point was winning everything like he still

is, I guess. What do you make of Golden

Hostess? You mentioned the the South

African bred Bless My Stars on the outside.

This is another South African bred.

Saw some of those pop up in the Breeders cup this year.

Man, this is Graham Motion and This is why I paused here

because this is a horse. He's now sprinted twice, but the

horse did its best running at the end of the race.

David, we're only asking horses to go that mile.

You mentioned kind of the shorter turns, the quicker, you

know, tighter turns at Gulfstream.

Any chance that their golden Hostess would get John Velasquez

here? I'll take 8 to one all day.

I could be very wrong about this, but in the winter time

when you don't have that many options, I think you have to

figure things out like what you want to do all winter.

And I don't think this horse wants to go 5 furlongs.

So Graham motions like all right now I got to try mile to see

what I can do the rest of the winter.

I don't her races in South Africa, she never got the mile,

but that's obviously a completely different

configuration. Most likely I didn't watch those

races. I'm going to guess it's a little

different than Gulfstream Park. A horse was ever able to get

that extra furlong on these tight turns like we've talked

about on the inner there. I feel like this would be the

track to try, but you got to you got to try it because what's she

going to do all winter? There's nowhere to run unless

you go to Santa Anita because you're not getting five.

You don't get 6 furlongs and seven furlongs at Gulfstream.

So it wouldn't shock me, but I'm not a big fan of horses

stretching out with that one closing run.

But it wouldn't shock me at all because obviously Grand Motion's

an outstanding trainer. All right, so how are you

playing the late card on Saturday when we get there?

So I play a pick 4. You may just read out my numbers

or What do you want me? Yeah, sure.

Go ahead and do that. I will.

I will actually type it as you say.

Go ahead. I was going to play the late

pick four in the first race, the Janus.

I would use the 15781011 When we get to the featured dirt race on

the day of the Harlan's holiday. I would single Tuscans guy, the

one use a few in the M Fort Lauderdale, the 245 and then the

finale in the Swanee River. I would use the 1711 and 12.

So going to lean on Tuscan sky in the late pick 4.

If you were playing a late pick five, I think the first leg was

extremely, extremely hard. So I was going to lean on the

late pick four in here. Yeah, that's that would be my

pick 4 right there. Try to get Tuscan Sky, maybe get

Major Dude at a little bit of a price, and then try to get a

long shot home in the last with Oceans Club, Ocean Club and some

other price sources. But I think it's a really good

sequence. It's finally a Gulfstream Park

card that actually looks Championship level like it

doesn't. Look like a champion.

So you know, Pegasus prep day, it's going to be a fun day.

Couple good maiden races but that's my pick 4.

Is that 36 bucks or did I do the math right?

Correct. Six 318 * 4 would be 3670.

Two 72 / 2 is 36, right? So that should be, yeah, that

should be the number. I did a tropical pick 3 here.

Three horses in each race. So let me get these typed out

for me. OOP, you are being a jerk.

There we go, 1-2 and ten. The first I decided, is it just

to do a little bit of coverage in each race?

Because I think you and I agree there's no single in any of

these turf races. And so I'm going to try to get a

little bit of value in some of these because I do have longer

shots up there. 33 and 3:00 will be my play here in the turf pick

3. And I'm trying to figure out

exactly what that cost would be, but I think it's somewhere

around $72. Was that dollar minimum there

two? What is the $3?

Minimum $3, Yeah, so it's an $81.00 ticket here for my

tropical pick three if you play three horses in each race.

But I think on a day like this it's going to pay stacks and the

take out rate only be at 15% should make it pretty good.

We're going to move over to New Orleans now.

Five horse field for the gun runner.

It is a 10 point race for the Kentucky Derby mile and a 16th

on the dirt at the fairgrounds. David and I are going to play a

game as we do with all of our shows here.

We're going to a horse has a chance to win this race.

David, you are going to stick to your guns.

And if they don't, you're going to be gun shy.

How about that? All right, so David, let's run

through the field here. Built is the one horse here,

Wayne Catalano. Corey Lannery last ran at

Keeneland winning its maiden race at 7 furlongs.

Comes in sprints around 13% for Wayne Catalano.

Also having a really good year with two year olds hitting at

15% this year. David, stick to your guns or are

you gun shy on built? I'm gun shy on this horse.

I'm not a he doesn't have good stats.

Stretching out Sprint to route off the layoff horse has talent,

but I got to see it going two turns and this is it's a short

field, but there's some good talent in here.

Yeah, son of Hard Spun Corey Landry.

Of course the Louisiana native gets them out there.

I'll go ahead and agree with David.

I think I'll be gun shy on this horse as well, at least for now.

I could just be one that develops into something more

substantial in the spring. Sure, son of Hard Spun curling

on the damn side. Obviously built to go the two

turns. I'll let him go ahead and try

the two turns before I go ahead and bet him or think he's going

to be top choice in this one. Render Judgement is the two

Hernandez Junior Mcpeak. We've heard that combination

before and certainly at the fairgrounds where they hit

together at 13%. Kenny Mcpeak, 10% winner with

his two year olds in the last 367 races.

Just a little bit of experience there trying to turns up for the

third time here coming out of that Kentucky Jockey Club.

What say you about Render Judgement?

I like this horse. I'm, I'm, I would, I would, I

would, I would play this horse in my bets because he has two

turn experience. I think it's.

Important in these kind of races.

He was never beating the horses he ran versus last time out.

Jonathan's Way Rant runner up, good horse first resort.

Owen Hardy when Owen Hardy was winning every race.

He won the race at Aqueduct as well.

I think rendered judgement just because of Mcpeak being so good

with these young horses, especially going two turns.

I would use him and all my bets in here He and then we'll talk

about another horse in here, but he's one of the horses I'm using

in here. The son of blame, as you

mentioned, already done the two turn thing.

I agree with you. Stick to your guns on this one.

Go ahead and use render judgement as part of your your

bets there and certainly the team of the connections there

makes sense as well. Magnitude comes in two to one.

The three horse here, Asmussen and Jose Ortiz Speaking of

people winning all of the races at their perspective tracks.

What a great you know what, you say, whatever you want.

Jose has made all of the right career moves lately.

The move to Kentucky has been really fruitful.

The move to New Orleans for the winter.

His team has done a really, really good job, set him up with

very good mouths. He gets a good one here, a horse

that recently won at the distance on the dirt at

Churchill Downs. What say you?

I'm gunshot on this horse. I don't like the field he beat.

He he only beat four other horses.

The runner up coming into that race had run a 39 buyer and a 69

buyer and there was only 5 of them.

Hold on there. This horse got everything his

own way. I know it's scary to throw it

and ask me to not this time expensive $450,000 horse, but

you can't like everybody in here and I think this horse is going

to be massively over. Bet I'm a gunshot on this horse.

I think purely as a winner, I I'm going to stick to my guns

here. I think he's got a shot.

I think Jose just has been so good down to fairgrounds.

The combination of those two guys for sure.

I'm with you. I don't think there's any value

in this race altogether. But I'm going to go ahead and

say stick to your guns with this horse.

I think magnitude can absolutely win.

Chris's revenge comes in here. He's the four horse.

Brittany Russell loves seeing her outside of Maryland and

outside of New York. Starting to send more trainees

to the gate. Jaime Torres gets the the mount

here for the horse that most recently ran in a mile starter

allowance essentially at Churchill Downs running running

forth behind Optical and McAfee. Where'd you land on this one?

I'm good shot. I don't know how this horse

wins. No offense to the the horse of

the connections. I don't I don't know how this

horse wins. It's almost just like will you

please run in this race so we can get 5.

That's what it looks like. Maybe pick up a check, get

lucky, get a few dirt. You get Derby points for this.

You do 10/10/10. Well, this horse will get it for

just being in the race, so there you go.

Yeah, exactly. So I just, I don't see how this

horse wins. The Mayfield he beat at in New

York was no bueno. I'm not only going to agree with

you, I'm going to bet against any Instagram kid until I see

one win A2 turn race. Yeah, they just watch.

What was that horse? Key Waden?

Was it Key, Waden? Key Waden Yep, Yep, couldn't do

it up in New York, and so I'll go.

I'll wait. I'll I'll just wait until an

Instagram baby wins over two turns To this point certainly

has not happened. Admiral Dennis, I think I heard

you mentioned is the morning line favorite here 9 to 5 Cox

and Saez. I think I know what I'm doing

here. Yeah, I'm all in and sticking to

your guns on this horse. I think this horse is a very

likely winner. I think it's good that Saez is

following this horse, leaving Gulfstream on a big day to

follow this horse. He must think this horse has

some real ability. Got bet on debut hard, didn't

break that grade. Had a rough trip.

Saez much more professional going a mile second time out.

Perfect outside post. I think this horse is a likely

winner and I'm going to play him with the two in here.

Yeah, I agree. I think he is the most likely

winner as well. So stick to your guns on Admiral

Dennis, son of Constitution. Do you enjoy names like that on

horses, David, where it's a little bit of a word play, like

We the People as the son of Constitution?

Yes, that is, it is clever because sometimes when I look at

horse names, I'm like, I don't know how you came up with this

bad of a name. So when you see a good name, you

can actually appreciate it. You know, like Claiborne always

has the one word names, like the Phipps always added good names.

Like then you see horses with just awful names and you're

like, how did you even come up with this?

But they pay the bills, so they name the horses what they want.

That's pretty much how it works. He's a David Levitch at at man

oh man, at horse capper. No paddock Prince.

What am I saying? You're the printer paddock under

store mix mixing up all my guys. Go find him on Twitter and of

course, Horse Racing Nation. Go get his picks for the full

card there at Gulf St. How many are you doing that

every day they run? Yeah, I do Gulfstream every day

in the winter. I do Turfways on Saturdays and

then Derby prep cards. I'm not doing Fairgrounds this

weekend, but once they get to the new year, I'll start doing

Sanity. We'll have Malibu Day, Obvious

or all that. But yeah, once breeders, once

all the, excuse me, not breeders come, once the Derby preps

really get rolling in January, I'll start to do Derby prep

cards. Awesome.

Well, good luck with the The King of the Bluegrass and

everything else with your team. So hopefully everything goes

well and don't be a stranger on the show.

We'll talk to you next time. Thank you for having me, I

enjoyed it. All right, brother.

See you, man. There you go.

Little David Levitch on a Thursday edition of the show,

December 19th edition to the horse racing.

I appreciate him jumping on again.

If you wanted to see those tickets for today, David's

playing the late pick four there at Gulfstream Park.

Again, go find his stuff at Horse Racing Nation.

Does a great job over there. Gulfstream, Saratoga, lots of

different Keeneland, lots of different places.

Does a terrific job. About 36 bucks there.

I came up with an $81.00 turf pick three, the tropical turf

that they've got down there as well.

Three horses in each race. I think you got to spread a

little bit in all of them and hopefully we can hit that one as

well. But we'll go ahead and get out

of here. Zach, go ahead and play the

music. Another shortened addition of

the Horse Racing Happy Hour next Thursday will be the start of

our road and this show. We will see you for that then.

My name's Lou. You're both get.

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