Derby 150 Handicapping Seminar

All right. Hello, everybody.

Welcome to a special Derby edition of the Horse Racing

Happy Hour. I'm Mike Endolfo and I'm joined

as always by Louis Ribault, and we are live at the Blind

Squirrel in Louisville, getting people ready for Derby 150.

We're going to go through, we're going to do some handicapping

today and just do a little. Just betting basics, Louis.

This is our favorite show of the year.

Oh, no question. Absolutely one of our favorite

shows of the year. Love getting to meet the people

that show up for us. And so we get to do this both

podcast and show because of our listeners and it's absolutely

fantastic you get to meet them. Yeah, and if you are new to the

horse racing happy hour, make sure you go back and check out.

Last week was one of our most popular episodes ever, the Derby

Draft. It's a great way to get a little

snippet about every single Derby horse.

Yeah, if you just want to. Sound smart for 3045 seconds at

a Derby party? That's the episode.

For you go go to the Derby draft, pick up some things and

you know. Track announcer Travis Stone on

that one. Caitlin, Free the Paddock

reporter and of course, our friend Steve Kornacki from NBC.

That's. Right.

Steve Kornacki did our show and Jimmy Fallon in the same week.

That's all I got to say about that.

There you go. All right, Louis, go ahead.

Let's kick us off. We're again, we're going to be

at Churchill Downs live on air, 11:50 tomorrow, 11:50 on

Thursday, 9:50 to 1:00 on on Friday, and 11:00 to 2:00 on

Derby Day. So as you're coming into the

track, tune us in and we can see.

This of our our guys, it's. Cheaper than what?

A Oh, there you go. Yeah, there you go.

Well. I didn't know where that was

going. All right, all right.

Louis, how did we get here? What is the Kentucky Derby?

Yeah, so how did we get to the Kentucky Derby?

So if you are new to horse racing, this is an unusual race.

It is. It is confined to only

three-year old horses who have to qualify on a path either

through Europe, through Japan or different tracks around North

America. Best predictors for this are

recently the Santa Anita Derby and of course the Florida Derby.

The the 2nd place finisher in the Florida Derby won the Derby

last year in Mage. The Wood Memorial historically

has been a very very good predictor of success.

In the Kentucky Derby we have not had a winner from their wood

since 2000. With Fusaichi on the Derby side,

horses of both sexes can qualify.

So Phillies can run in the Derby.

A couple have won in the past, but not.

So to win. I don't grind some.

Willie winning colors. Oh, winning colors.

Just sorry. And only females.

Phillies, as we call them at three-year, three years old kid

run on Friday in the Kentucky Oaks.

All right, we're heading back. And now let's talk about

tonight's betting menu. We will walk through the all the

horses in the Derby. So you will get a little snippet

about those things as well introduce you to some of the top

contenders for the Oaks. But I will tell you this, Louis

The Oaks is wide open. Oaks feels wide open.

We'll talk about why it might not be.

And we'll go through some just to the basis of wagering how you

structure a ticket. And really that's kind of the

key to how you're going to make money on Derby day.

And then finally, we're going to give you out some of our

favorites because one of the things that we've been bringing

up on our show, if you've been listening to us, is that the

Kentucky Derby is like watching middle school track.

So if you want to, you know, see the the 7th and 8th graders run

the CS AA for $5,000,000. That's what it'd be like.

It's different though, because you can't hold your kid back.

That's true, yeah. But all these other horses that

are on the undercard would be like Carl Lewis and Hussein Bolt

and all that other kind of stuff.

We got some unbelievable horses in some of these races, so let's

get into it right now. The ABC's of Betting and Louie.

Yeah, so some of the very basics of betting.

So if you're a sports better, for example, you're trying to

beat the house, right? So you're trying to beat the

casino, the sports book, whatever it might be.

In horse racing, you're actually betting against the person

standing next to you. OK, so that you put a you put

$100 in the track, takes its 10 bucks and then that 90 bucks is

dispersed based on who has the winning bet?

So I think the best way to explain that is Churchill Downs

doesn't really care who wins. They've already made their

money. That's right.

They got something called the Take.

So every single dollar that comes in there, they can take a

percentage of that. No matter who wins, they've

already made their money. It doesn't change.

It's going to be the same. They just want you to bet.

That's right. And that's why, frankly, they do

want to try to hire the best people at their desk.

Because if you win, you're more likely to bet again, right?

So if you win a bunch of bets and bet a bunch more money, they

make more money, etcetera, etcetera.

The basic bets include win place and show.

The win bet is very obvious. If your horse crosses the line

1st and there's no objection or what have you, you win your

money back plus the odds. On top of that, a place bet is

if your your horse finishes first or second, but that pool

is divided amongst the two horses that finish first and 2nd

and then the show bet is obviously for 3rd place.

I recommend pretty highly against the show bet by the time

you get down to those odds, especially if any kind of

favorite comes in, even if you like a long shot, it's not going

to pay like it could if the horse runs second or first.

So try to stay away from those show bets.

But usually you talked about the take, it's usually lowest on

that kind of. Bet.

And actually, one of the fun things I like to do, if you're

not a serious gambler, maybe you start with a $5 show bet and you

just keep on, like, playing it forward until you lose.

You just keep on moving it forward.

So that can be a lot of fun, too.

You know, a Safeway can, you know, pick a horse that's going

to fish on the top three? That's.

Exactly right. There are also exotic wagers

that includes Xactas and xacta means that you pick the first

two finishers in the race in exact order.

The trifecta is the first three horses in a race in exact order

and of course the superfecta then would be 4 horses.

On Derby day you will be able to bet a high five as well.

I don't have to tell you how many of the horses in a row.

You have to pick 6. The major 7.

Good job at math there. Buy a house for Mike and they

but all of the minimums on these superfectas and high fives go up

for Derby to a dollar. Which is really a bummer because

I love that dime superfecta and that is not available for the

Kentucky Derby. So the.

Next type of wager is if you wanted to bet multiple wager.

So if you happen to be say a same game parlay person or a

multi game parlay person, this is the equivalent.

And those you're trying to pick the winner, we're doing exactly

the same thing in what's called the daily double.

That's back-to-back races. So you're trying to pick the

winner of of the first race and the second race in that sequence

and then a pick 345 and six just describes how many races you're

trying to pick in that sequence. Obviously the more races, the

more difficulty, and you can pick more than one horse for

those sequences and it can get pretty expensive given all the

combinations. Now one of the things that I

think is really fascinating that a lot of people don't understand

and actually I was out the track today and the guy was like, why

did that exacto pay what it paid when I had a the two favourites

up top and with the odds that you see on the board are just

the wind pool odds. So that has nothing to do with

what the payout will be for the Xacta has nothing to do with

what the payout would be on a place bet.

It's only for a win bet. That is the only odds that they

put on the at the track. That's exactly right.

So if you have a 1 to 1 / a two to one, it's not going to pay

very well and hey, take out on the mind.

In other words, stay away from the Super factors in the high

fives this weekend at Churchill Downs.

Stick to other kinds of bets. Win, play, show for sure.

In big fields tends to be the very best bet that you can make

on Derby weekend. All right, here are the races

that we're going to talk about tonight on Oak State.

We're going to talk about the Gray win, Great, great win.

Grade one. Someone's going to win the LATCH

win, which is one of our favorite.

Races. Who are some of The Who are some

of the horses that we've seen there before in Latch?

Oh man. Now, like Beholder, way back to,

I mean, a songbird. I mean, yeah.

It's a great horse. This is a Philly and mare race,

the older Philly and Mares. This is a great predictor for

what could happen in the Breeders Cup distaff.

That's exactly right. It is the spring distaff

essentially. Right, and the race on the. 16th

over the dirt. We'll talk about it.

Later Race 9 is the Grade 28 bells named after another famous

Philly that came in second, the Kentucky Derby 8 bells

tragically though, broke down. So that's we got that one.

And then of course the main event, Race 11, the Grade 1

Kentucky Oaks on Derby day, we're going to cover the grade

one DC distaff. We're gonna talk about the Grade

2 American turf, which has actually got kind of a

fascinating play with Derby horse because we have a horse

that has chosen to run in the Derby instead of the American

turf. And the turf course at Churchill

Downs may be a question. They did not run the turf today.

Louis, did you notice that? Of course.

Great. Then, of course, we have the

Grade 1 Churchill Downs, the Grade 1 Turf Classic, and then

finally the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby.

And the reason I select these races is if you want to play any

of the Friday and Saturday wagers, they're up there.

The only wager I think we don't have all of them for is what's

the three-year old race, the one pad day mile.

Yeah, I don't have the pad day mile up here.

I'm glad to talk about it after the seminar.

There is a $3 all three-year old race pick three on Saturday.

Oaks pad, Day Mile. No, I think it's just on.

Saturday, yeah. So pad, day mile, the American

turf and the Derby, I, I, I, I we're not doing that.

That's just the one we're not going to do.

But there are two day pick six. It's obviously the Oaks Derby

double, those kinds of bets. All of them are covered tonight

as part of the seminar. All right, Louie, let's talk

about who you like in that first race we talked about this is

Oaks Day. This is Friday, Race 5, the

Grade 1 La Troin. Who did you like here, Louis?

Yeah, look, and this is where once in a while you get to see a

Superstar in the Eclipse award winner, which is the highest

award in horse racing, is back in this race this year.

She ran to Churchill Downs last year and won.

Her name is idiomatic. She'll be the four horse in race

5 on Friday. She is the Eclipse winner for

older dirt female. Like I mentioned, she's the best

in the game right now. Last year she ran 9 times she

ran. She.

Won eight of those and ran second once.

If she's at all at her best form, she is going to win on

Friday. The good news is she has been

off since November. You might look at that and

think, man, that's a lot of time off for a horse like that.

But Brad Cox, local guy, grew up right down the street from

Churchill Downs. Comes off the layoff like that,

layoff a time off for a horse comes off a layoff like that at

32%. If you do anything in horse

racing at 20%, that's exceptional.

In this case, we're talking about a horse coming off at 32%.

Shigeruera is the 6th horse here.

Julia Leperu is going to get the ride another one coming off a

longer layoff. But I have good news.

Phil Bauer does two things really well.

Trainer Phil Bauer that is he places horses and stakes company

and he brings them off the bench off these layoffs really really

well at 35%. So look for her to at least be

part of it. She is 2 for two lifetime at

Churchill Downs as well. Pretty mischievous is in here.

She won the Oaks was that last year?

Yeah. Ran and ran and ran.

Won. The Acorn heads up to the test

at Saratoga wins that race. She's mega talented.

I would not be surprised if she won here 5 to 2 on the morning

line. Totally deserve it there as

well. And then I went to quite a a

little bit of a longer shot for my 4th spot here, 15 to one for

Corey Lanry and Chase Pommier. How about that?

I I thought showed up pretty well in the Apple Blossom last

time out behind a Dare Manor and Flying Connection.

Dare Manor is a fantastic filly, not eligible to run at Churchill

Downs because she's trained by Bob Baffert.

That's the only reason she's not in the LA Troy End this weekend.

She ran in that Apple Blossom Free like a girl at 15 to 1,

running third in that race. I think if you're going to play

a trifecta something like that in this race, you have to

include. Her So just want to make sure

everyone understands something. Number one, it is not unusual

for the older females to take this long layoffs, especially

females, right? The females especially.

And one thing that we always talk about on our show, we.

Talk about it, by the way. It's because they're ready to

breed, actually. They go into heat, essentially.

If you've ever had a dog, they essentially go into heat over

the winter. That's a bad time to be racing

is essentially what that works out to be.

And one of the things that if you listen to our show, we

always talk about, if you love racing, fall in love with the

Phillies and mares, they race longer, you might get to see

them as a 2 year old, 3 year old, 4 year old, five year old,

sometimes 6. So it's a good, you know, this

is a good field to kind of like. Yeah, especially like an

idiomatic She runs nine times last year.

I would guess if she's healthy, she'll run six or seven more

times this year. That's just fantastic.

You can get to know her, you know her running style, get to

use her in your wages as well. Yeah.

This is this sets up for a great this is, this is Beastie man.

It's. Absolutely.

All right. Race 9 is the great to 8 bells.

Louis, you had four horses here that you liked.

Let's talk about #7, Denim and pearls.

Yeah, so Denim and pearls is in this one floppy and Pratt gets

the ride again. This is for Brad Cox folks.

The best run at Keeneland this year was her denim and pearls in

the Beaumont grade two race going the exact same distance.

She's one for one at it. She did also win at Churchill

Downs over the mile track, which is only one furlong longer, 1/8

of a mile longer. So they're going to start a

little bit further up in the chute at Churchill Downs.

So she'll start right there. I think she's got an excellent

chance here. Flavi and Pratt Fries in offer

that one. He and Brad Cox win a third of

their races at Churchill Downs together.

That's an absurd percentage. So definitely, definitely have

denim and pearls on top. I have Impel in the second spot

and something I have noticed about these cards that you're

going to notice tonight. I think the class of this

weekend is going to show up and so Impel is five to two here.

I think it's cutting back to a more comfortable distance in

this one. It's two for three lifetime.

Very lightly raced for the Brad Cox barn ran in that Ashland

last time out. Milan is 16th at AT Keeneland,

just ran out of gas. If you look at the past

performances, she's essentially she's essentially in second

place the whole time. She's there by a head, right

behind all of the leaders and then just fades at the end over

that second turn. She doesn't have to do that on

Friday at Churchill Downs, so I'm going to give her a really,

really sharp chance there. If you want a long shot on

Friday, this is the race to look for one on the outside.

The 12 horse, R Harper Rose, is listed at 12 to one.

Tyler Gaffeleone has won the riding title every year at

Churchill Downs for the last 78 years in a row.

He's unbelievable. That might be an exaggeration.

He's teaming up with Savi Joseph Junior on this one.

She won the forward gal, which is a grade three race.

It's on the road to the Kentucky Oaks.

They obviously think this horse is going to be a sprinter.

So if you want a long shot on Friday, R Harper Rose the 12

horse who is 12 to one as well, on the line for Saffy.

Joseph Junior should be good to go.

The two of them win a third of their races at Churchill Downs

at 27% overall and Helenas Forte.

Helenas Forte is 12:50 here. Jose Ortiz very fine jockey has

recently moved his business to Kentucky.

His tack as we call it in the industry ran last time in the

Ashland. Hated going two turns.

Gets back to seven furlongs is 1 for one at that distance.

Before then was running in six furlong races.

I'm not sure that she's of the class of the first three, but

can she get a piece of this race?

I think she can. All right, we're going to move

on now to the main event of Friday, which is the Grade 1

Kentucky Oaks $1.5 million on the line for these Phillies

going a mile and an eighth. Louie, I think we're going to

disagree on this one. OK, you know I love the way just

FYI is looked on the track this week.

Yes. And so just FYI, third in my

handicapping, she's second off the layoff here.

So that's actually something I wanted to talk about, These

layoffs that I keep talking about.

I keep mentioning horses do take this time off.

Like we mentioned, the Phillies, especially the Phillies and

mares need that time off in the winter just for natural reasons.

In her case, let me get down to her and the PPSI.

Probably she is the 13 here. Judy Alvarado, Bill Mott,

really, really great together. Bill Mott wins 1/4 of his stakes

races. I mean that's a stunning number.

So he places his horses really well.

She came off the bench last time out.

She ran a very, very good second at the short stretch at

Keeneland. She will like the added distance

here. I totally agree with you.

A couple years ago we watched Malefat.

Yep, almost run. The exact same race in the

Ashland at Keeneland came back, won the Oaks the next the next

month, And so could Jeff's FYI be that Philly again?

No question in my mind, I'll know.

You like to resent? Bill Mott, Junior, Yeah.

Excuse me. Yeah, Junior Alvarado.

Absolutely there. But the horse who's in the best

form right now is Tarifa. Yeah, Brad Cox, trainee, written

by Flavia and Pratt. Flavia and Pratt might pick up

some wins this weekend, folks. I might.

I might be. Happy.

He might have a good one, huh? He's he's got a good deal going.

On. By the way, there's nothing

wrong with that. If you like a jockey and just

want a better jockey, no question.

Go for it, my buddy John's over here at the bar.

He is a jockey better. He is a trainer better.

He is a breeding better and that's it.

He doesn't look at the past performances.

He doesn't care about that. Those are the things that matter

to him. Find the thing that works for

you in horse racing and you'll always have fun with it.

But Tarifa, look 3 for three this year.

We love the undefeated thing as a three-year old.

She's done that this year, went ahead and won the Florida Oaks

last time out. A lot of horses translate very

well from Gulfstream Park to the surface of Churchill Downs.

I'm hoping that she'll do exactly the same on Friday.

Leslie's roses in this race and this is a horse that just loves

two turns and so I'll be looking for her to to be really good.

The Ashland also, by the way, is a really good indicator of

success and future success for Phillies.

And so she won that race. She was right there with just

FYI. If we think that much of just

FYI and she beat her last out, I'm again for the benefit of the

doubt, put her in that second spot and a horse that I liked on

paper and then I saw her this week during workouts, you know,

seven, 7:15 in the morning is Thorpedo Anna.

She's the five Horse here in the Kentucky Oaks.

Again, she dominated the fantasy at Oak Lawn Park.

We see a lot of transitioning between Oak Lawn in Arkansas Hot

Springs, AR up here to Churchill Downs.

She should make the the switch. No problem.

Brian Hernandez Junior is a really, really good rider and

he's very, very good at Churchill Downs.

He should be totally capable in this spot.

And look, she dominated that fantasy.

I mean, she put those other horses away in a very, very

serious way. Kenny Mcpeak has won this race

before the Kentucky Oaks. He trains her.

I think she's got a real shot as well.

All right. We're going to move on now to

Saturday and we're going to start with Race 6, the grade one

DC distaff. We got another.

Just really good, at least a top two really good horses here.

Who do you like in this one, Louis?

Yeah. So in the in the distaff I'm

going to, I'm actually going to land on Vava.

And so there was a race recently, the Madison is a grade

11 turn race at Keeneland going 7 Furlongs.

Vava actually ran second, but that was her first race this

year coming off the layoff, right?

So she's going to be second off the layoff here.

And I love that her first up was at Keeneland.

Keeneland doesn't always translate to Churchill Downs.

For some reason, Mike, the Phillies seem to run better at

Keeneland than at Churchill Downs than the guys do.

I don't know what. It just seems to be.

And so I think she's got a really, really serious shot

here. You get Irad Ortiz Junior, the

winner of the Eclipse Award for Top Jockey in North America last

year. So if you wanted to land on a

horse, I would land on Vava in this spot.

I am really interested in red carpet ready in this spot.

I think she's terrific. 3 for three lifetime at Churchill

Downs, 2 for two, two for three. Excuse me at the distance.

And so definitely check her out. Luis Saez for Rusty Arnold here.

Look one here. Come.

Here comes the bride at Gulfstream Park.

A track that I've talked about translating.

Well, 2 Churchill Downs at 6 1/2 furlongs. 7 will be no issue for

her. I fully expect her to be part of

the equation. Nice summer.

Two at 9:00 to 2:00. There should be, somebody said,

the three for three. We call that horse for the

course. Horse for the course.

That's exactly there. If a horse loves a certain

track, you don't want to overlook it.

Yeah. So I think she's got a

legitimate shot as well. We'll go to the seven next.

In Elvastar, you get local guy Tyler Gaffeleone.

Again, Five to two is probably going to be the favorite in this

race because she won that race at Keeneland last out.

Well, good for her. It was her second run though.

She already had her second race in 2024.

So I'm just going to guess that she's not going to keep that

form up as well as she has in the past.

And so I'm. I'm just guessing on that.

She's also perfect at Keeneland, so I think she really likes that

track. I think coming back to Churchill

Downs, where she's run once and didn't win.

Is a chance for us to beat her as the favorite in this one.

And then I went to three witches on the inside, which I'm sure

there's a joke there, but I'm. I don't have one.

Do you have one? No.

What was the three witches? That had the three the toil

toil. 3 witches here. She's already 3 for six.

Lifetime at the distance, has never missed the board again.

Flavia and Pratt rides here for Mike McCarthy.

Mike McCarthy will talk about in a couple of races has endlessly

in the Kentucky Derby. Mike McCarthy trains here he and

Flavi and Pratt. Not great at Churchill to this

point but they win 40% of their races together 44.

Zero. Those are better than Baffert

numbers with five horse fields in California 40%.

That is 8 to 1 and this is the West Coast speed.

Once in a while a horse ships in from California and they're just

faster. They just are this might be that

horse 8 to 1. Terrific price on Flavi and

Pratt. All right, Race 9 is the

American turf. It's a $600,000 race.

One mile on the 16th on the turf.

And again, Louie, this turf course, we got a lot of

questions. We do.

And so we gotta see how it's gonna hold up.

What are you gonna be looking at?

But sorry, like if you're watching The Turf.

I went on Saturday. For this reason, I wanted to

watch Races on the Turf course. For now, it appears to be

playing like a normal turf course.

Not a ton of kickback, very normal amount of of kickback.

At least it the turn seem to be playing normally.

If you're a front runner, it's good for pace.

If you're a closer, it's fine for closing.

I'm not worried about the turf this week.

I'm worried about the turf in June.

I mean, that's why we didn't race on it today, even though

they probably could. Just being careful when you have

this many grade twos and grade ones on that course, you just

have to be careful, especially with all the issues they've had.

Look, I I'd rather have all the horses on the turf, but I also

understand they're in a weird spot where they just really have

to be. Careful.

All right, let's see right here. You started off with the Five

Horse Legend of Time. Legend of Time is coming in for

Charlie Appleby, one of the great British trainers who

brings his horses over for very select races.

He comes over. He wins 58% of his races with

horses, starting in North America the first time.

That's it. I'm telling you, there's a ton

of class this weekend. It's going to be a fantastic two

days of racing, so some of your bets might not return a lot of

money, but you're going to see the very best horses that we can

get in North America in a single race.

Frankie Natori's going to be in from Santa Anita to ride this

weekend, like, like I mentioned, endlessly.

Actually, no, he'll be on. Excuse me?

Frankie Natori's on. I'll be outside.

That's right in the Derby. Frankie Natori is a champion

rider, Royal Ascot in in Germany, in France, in different

places, obviously. He's an Italian jockey, very

capable on the turf. I fully expect this horse to

come over in great shape. Charlie Appleby is an absolute

must use in this sequence. So look for him.

Look. Excuse me.

In her this case, Yeah. Look for him on top.

Here, Neat is the next horse that I wanted to go to.

We're going to get a price here a little.

Bit It's also how I like my bourbon, Louie.

That's true. That's neat.

I like the bourbon. Oh man, I lost my spot.

Sorry. Sorry, you know.

There's neat, yes, six to one here.

Raelu Gutierrez took over the mounts for Neat, the six horse

for Rob Atris a couple races back.

Man. She she ran and won in her last

race last year, came back this year after a layoff and won

again on the turf at Keeneland. The turf at Keeneland travels

really well to other courses, so if you run well at Keeneland you

can run well at Santa Anita, you can run well at Belmont, you can

go to other places and run well. No different here at Churchill

Downs as well as a as kind of an aside.

I know people love buyer figures and the numbers and those sorts

of things. Two turn route races on the

turf. Less, not zero, but less.

OK. And so in this case, if you see

numbers in the 80s or whatever, kind of push that aside.

Become a person that watches the times, the finish times for

these races. Because this horse in this case

ran it in $1.44 last time out at a mile and a 16th.

Not not to get too far ahead of like too advanced, but also I

think if you're looking at where they were positioned because

they're going to be bunched together, these these route

races are bunched together. When they start to separate and

how far they separate, that's to me is something that I would

look for. There you go.

Need is also three for three at the distance.

That's a big deal to me. So she's run this three times at

this distance and won all three of them.

That's an awesome stat for me. 6 to one is a huge number.

So if that euro for some reason doesn't show up, doesn't like

the course, is tired from travel the time change.

I don't know whatever it might be for that horse.

Neat might be picking up the pieces solid. 5 to one, six to

one kind of price. I'm into that for sure. 10 is

the 10 horse is set coming in only run twice.

And this is more me trusting connections than anything else.

Mark Cassie, a fantastic conditioner of young horses has

set in the spot really good over two turns in fact with this

horse if I'm remembering correctly, yes.

So 7 1/2 furlongs at Gulf St. Park is 2 turns.

So this horse has been going the two turns.

We are going to go another eighth of a mile longer.

So that is absolutely a question.

But in this case, she's a daughter of Oscar performance.

That's a horse that got the distance, no problem.

So I'm not worried about that part either.

Cassie's Oslo, an excellent turf trainer.

Cassie's an excellent turf trainer.

He does a lot of work at Woodbine in Canada, where

there's a ton of turf racing and he wins back-to-back races.

So if his horse wins the race before they come back and win a

fifth of their races, 21%, so that's a nice number too.

So if we're looking for little angles, try to get a little bit

of a price. It's a 10 to 1 horse, 12:50's

fantastic that can make your day, frankly, and so look for

set to absolutely be part. By the way, if you notice that I

have five horses listed with every other race, I've had four.

That's because I think a lot of horses can win this race and

that's awesome. That's always the best kind of

race. Cucchino was just outside for

Javier Castellano and for Suge Suge Mcgahey, of course.

This is a horse that actually hasn't done a lot of winning

yet, has run second three times in a row, but in these route

races on turf, so often we see what we call blanket finishes.

Tons of horses on the line at the end.

I'm looking for maybe this is the one time that horse pops

through. We saw it last year actually in

the other three-year old actually in the same race, wet

Slinger did the same thing. I don't know if people remember

that name 15 to one. He had kind of been right there

at the end in a bunch of races, broke through, gosh, what do you

pay $22.00? Something like that.

Really nice prize. And so look for that as well.

That's a horse that I think could get there and stay hot as

the seven. Antonio Fresu, I threw this one

in because once in a while, I don't know what the California

turf horses are going to do, but I like horses this young,

especially that win. And this horse has won three in

a row, and I like that a lot. So I'll be looking for him.

Excuse me. Yeah, 123.

So once they move to Antonio Fresu, that's a name you're

going to have to start getting used to because that guy's going

to win a jockey title or two in San Anita before he moves

somewhere with better purses. Yeah, absolutely.

How about that? We've been.

Talking about that a lot this week.

Right. Yes, we are.

Get, get ready for a guy like Antonio Alfresu.

Especially when we get to Kentucky Downs, those kinds of

meats. You'll hear his name a lot more.

All right, the Churchill Downs Stakes is the next race we're

going to cover, which is race 10.

It is $1,000,000 Seven Furlong Sprint on the dirt and Louis,

should we do the raising canes read with this cause Raise

canes. Then there's Race I.

Love that horse by the. Way.

I mean, you got to. And I love the chicken fingers.

Yeah, yeah, there you go. If you listen to the show, the

Canes Read is a very specific thing that I do every Tuesday.

We. Did it made someone very

uncomfortable today with it? I know.

That I made someone very. Comfortable.

Yeah, 100%, That's OK. Another horse that we love.

I even cover my own face when I do it.

It's OK, like it's all right. I'm like, I'm not proud of

myself. Another horse that we love in

this race that is not on your list though.

It's Mr. Wireless. It's a horse.

That we see. Yeah, just sentimental.

Not not horses. We think you're going to win or

whatever else. By the way, if we're talking

about the cane tree, it might be a great time to mention that you

can go to Manscape, put in the Code Horse racing and get 20%

off your order. Yeah, we appreciate the folks at

Manscape hanging out with the show for.

Sure, it looks like a lot of people here he'll.

Go, oh, Dan Issel got his manscape box.

He's very appreciative. We'll talk about that on the

show the next couple of days. I think if you're going to

single on Derby day, this might be the spot.

And I think it's with Zozos, even though he's coming off the

bench. Like I said, I think Brad Cox

does that as well as anyone in the game.

He's the classiest in this field.

To me. This is a weekend of class.

Tons of great horses. Coming in from grade one's

grade. Twos.

This is not a Grade 1 field. It simply isn't.

On our show we talk a lot about, hey, what is the actual grade of

this race. I would give this a 2 -.

I think it's, I think it's that much lower than a grade one.

Zozo's crazy. We're talking $1,000,000 purse.

We're talking 1,000,000 bucks. In my mind though, Zozos is the

grade one horse in this field. Gun pilots in here, longer

price. I really like Christian Torres

as a Jockey. He's going to win the Jockey

title at Oaklawn. Really, really talented guy.

Look for him in this race to be a more balanced runner.

So when we talk about 7 Furlongs, you kind of just

think, man, go out as fast as you can and get the lead and see

if you can hold on. This horse isn't going to do

that. He's going to have some late

kick. And if the track turns out on

Saturday to be 1, where it's not great to be on the lead, it

could be gun pilot at 12:50. That would be the ending.

Be the horse that ends up winning here, Steve Asmussen and

Christian Torres with 21% of their races, similar 20% at

Churchill Downs as well. So if you're looking for a price

in this race, again look to gun Pilot the 10.

I would also look at Tejano Twist and this is how much I

don't love this field. I have this horse in second or

third, excuse me, He's run three times this year, 3 seconds.

That seems to be his thing. Once in a while horses figure

out that as long as they run kind of hard, they still get fed

when they get back to the barn. He might be one of these horses

and so he turned 5 this year. He might be on the way to not

wanting to do this anymore. So I'm wondering if he'll do

that. But he has won at Churchill

Downs a couple of times and so I think he's capable of winning

here. The only thing with him is I

think he's more of a six for a long horse than A7 for a long

horse. Hoist the goal, by the way, It's

super fascinating because that's the name I think some people

recognize. Yes, so the.

Goal is here for a guy that we really liked, Alice Stewart.

Jon. Velasquez is going to pick up

the the mount here. Something that's very difficult

to predict is when horses travel across the globe to race, how

will they come back to where they're based and run?

So this horse shipped to the Arabian Peninsula to run in the

United Arab Emirates or Saudi Arabia, those kinds of places

coming back to the United States.

Usually a horse needs a race just to get their feet

underneath them. This horse is massively

talented. So if the Eleven wins on

Saturday, I'm not going to be stunned.

Frankly, I should probably have them above Tejano.

Clash, especially with the the field being as look bad as it

is. Right, That's right.

And so this is also a horse who can maintain his speed better on

the backstretch, on the finish than most horses in this field.

Plus he's got very good early kick.

I think if he runs his race he'll be third, fourth in this

field and then be able to take it over at the end.

Zozo's though, will be on the lead.

If he's got any kind of stamina on Saturday, I expect him to

win. All right, Race 11, which is one

of our favorite races. No question.

I love. Old Forrester Bourbon Turf

Classic $1 million on the line here I randomly.

Heard someone say there's my beard.

I look. Around there's my beard.

It's. Columbus, yeah.

Columbus. Come on, Columbus.

Keep your beard to yourself. All right, here's your four

horses We like here. Let's start with #11 naval

power. By the way, the mile and an

eighth race at Churchill Downs is the one on the turf if you're

looking out to the track. They start all the way at the

top of the stretch and it's my favorite route in horse racing.

I love the mile and an eighth race.

It's at Churchill Downs, this race.

It's why the turf course not being in great shape really

kills me inside because I love this, I love this race, I love

this route, and it really bothers me that we don't have it

together locally here in Kentucky.

I'm really hopeful that they figured things out.

I'm going to be terribly boring here.

I'm going to the Euro here in naval power again.

This is the overseas form that we're going to trust.

This horse is 2 for two at the distance, one for two this year.

And that loss actually was at Keeneland, first time in North

America. So we talked about maybe a horse

bouncing when they get over here.

They kept the horse in Kentucky since that Maker's Mark mile

will be running on Saturday. In this turf classic, Frankie

Dettori gets the mount instead of Tyler Gaffa Leone.

We'll see if that helps the horse in this case.

But yeah, naval power on top for me, we'll go to, excuse me,

we'll go to six. I'm very busy.

Yes, we are. Isn't isn't it amazing?

I I got to I got to get this off my chest.

Aren't the busiest people in the world childless 20 somethings?

How are you so busy? You just slept for 9 hours.

You're not busy. I got 4 kids, you're not busy.

Anyways, so I'm very busy. Trained by Chad Brown and the

speed figures are off the charts.

Off the charts. One O 3 last race, one O 1

before that, Both of those this year, one at fairgrounds and one

at Gulfstream Park. So this is a horse that can

travel. So Mike, I think we've got two

horses at the top of this thing that are the very best in the

Turf Classic and you get Irad Ortiz with Chad Brown.

IRAD and Chad Man. That's IRAD and Chad 20. 7%

overall, I would guess on turf, you know what, I should have

looked this up. I apologize.

I would guess on turf the numbers considerably better.

Although IRAD and Chad not as dominant as they were two, three

years ago, I mean that's Chad choosing.

Tyler for a lot of these mounts, absolutely right now.

He gave Irad his second choice of mountain the Derby, and I

interviewed him about that on Saturday.

We'll get to it when we talk Derby.

These things are fluid. They move, but Irad's still very

capable on the turf for sure. Program trading is coming off

the layoff for Chad Brown. We talk about trainers and what

they're good at. Chad Brown, great at bringing

horses off the layout. Over 20% in the winners.

This is a horse royally bred in Europe and so I'm issued.

I'm I'm interested to see how he comes off this layoff.

Ran it colonial then they shipped him to California.

He won the race in California after shipping from Virginia.

That's pretty impressive. I love horses that can ship and

win because that's what Derby weekend is.

Many of these horses are not stable here.

They have to ship in, in this case, program trading.

The five horse hits that and then guess who's back?

Mike. Webb Slinger.

Back he won the American turf last year.

We mentioned that I can actually look Webslinger paid.

If you're a Spider Man fan, you gotta look at with with

Webslinger, right? I mean that's.

He paid $22.00. What did I say, 22?

Yeah. You were there.

That's a ridiculous memory. I don't know my wife's favorite

color, but I know that Webslinger paid $22.00 to the

American turf last. Year, you know my.

Favorite 2 for two Kentucky blue.

Oh, of course. OK, yeah.

Yeah, 2 for two at Churchill Downs.

Like I said, won that American turf last year.

You're gonna get 12:50 on that horse, and once in a while this

Mark Cassie again, once in a while you just get a horse that

loves the turf course, and if he won it last year on the janky

turf course, he can win it again on the janky turf.

Course, Absolutely. All right, now we're on the

Derby. Do we want to go through the

field before we get to your top? Yeah, let's go through the.

Let's go through the field. OK, we're going to go through

the field of the Kentucky Derby. Everyone's looking at that like,

holy crap, he's got endlessly on top.

We'll get there, I promise. Don't worry, we'll get.

And I'm right there with everyone else who has.

You and every single media. Member If endlessly wins, you

got to remember that Louie had it, because that's going to be,

it's going to be the talk, right?

There 45 to 1. We're going to go straight

through it, you know, and I will say this Louie, let's talk,

we'll go through this field and we'll, we like to eliminate

horses. So we'll just go we'll talk a

little bit about them eliminate winner win contender or just a

contender to hit the board. I.

Think if they make it, if we like them, we say they're

manscaping. We're manscaping them and.

If they're a nose, we say they're they're they're hairy or

something. Zohan.

They like the Bush. Yeah, no, yeah.

Your name is good. Yeah, yeah.

All right, door knock in the one has a really tough post position

draw, but since we've had that 20 horse skate, yes it has moved

it back and that's now more of a straight shot.

I still don't like door knock in the one super super talented has

the only he's actually beat Sierra Leone so.

If you want to get into the weeds about the Derby door

knocks, a perfect example runs last out in the bluegrass at

Keeneland. We haven't had a Derby winner

out of the bluegrass since 1991. I was 10 years old.

I have. Scored the gold.

My youngest daughter's in first grade, OK?

So that's not right. I don't remember.

I'll be very honest. It's been that long.

He did not win that race, so that doesn't bother me.

Before that, he ran in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream

Park. Way better predictor for success

in the Kentucky Derby is Gulfstream Park than Keeneland.

So if you wanted a reason to go with Doorknob, the two horses

right next to him, Sierra Leone and Mystic Dan, are not speed

horses. Out of the gate, Door Knock is.

So that one gate's a little less of a problem than it would be

for a lot of horses. Plus, if he's going to try to be

a speed horse, he's actually going to save a lot of ground

being inside. So if you wanted to make the

case for Door Knock, that's it. Plus, by the way, go back to the

podcast, we've got an interview for Danny Gargan that we did

yesterday about Door Knock and about his other horse.

It's exciting. The two horses Sierra Leone.

This horse came in to the Kentucky Derby as one of the two

probable favorites. Probably the biggest loser of

the position draw. Yeah, Sierra Leone, dead set

closer is going to want to drop back.

Lily, If that horse comes into traffic as it tries to drop back

as everyone's trying to push over the rail, it could be

trouble. It could be trouble, or it could

set up really well for. Him because I think they've.

Got a couple horses that think they need to either be the lead

or right on it and he's not going to have to worry about

that. Everyone always tells you, oh,

there's no pace in this race. There's no pace in this race.

That's complete crap. These jockeys are humans.

Let's be very realistic. So door knocks.

Jockey is Luis Saez. OK?

That's the one horse on the inside.

I told you he's going to break for it.

You think Luis Saez isn't going to go a little bit too quick on

that? I think he is.

OK, so instead of going 47 and something, he's probably going

to go 46. And something.

So listen to me right now, I'm telling you, the first fraction

that you will see in the Kentucky Derby will be like 20-3

and two and then the. Next I think he's going to be 22

something. 46.6 seconds for the for the half mile.

I'm just telling you when you see it on Saturday when you're

at your Derby party, you go, that Louis guy said.

It was going to be 46 and six. That's what's going to happen.

Sierra Leone will have speed to run into.

Look, he's the most talented closer in the field, so if he

can make his way through, he can absolutely win.

Generally speaking, since we started the point system a dozen

or so years ago, closers don't win this race.

Rich Strike ruined a lot of things for a lot of people, for

sure. But look, at least generally

speaking, it's very difficult to make your way through twenty

horses. It just is.

You can close in A7810 horse reel, but when you double it,

it's considerably harder. That'll be his challenge on

Saturday. All right, the three horse at 20

to one is going to be Mystic Dan, trained by Kenny Mcpeak and

ridden by Brian Hernetez Junior. Yeah, I talked with Brian this

morning. We watched him breeze.

This not breeze, but you know, galloped a little bit this

morning in Mystic Dan, 20 to one on the morning line.

I think you'll get every bit of that price unless it rains

because he ran one of the great three-year old races of the year

this year in the Southwest. If you want to go back and watch

a jockey really do his job, watch the Southwest Replay.

Hernandez takes him, takes him essentially from the two or

three path and just rockets him, almost slingshots him up the

rail. The rail that day was the place

to be. He knew that.

Gets him on that spot and the horse explodes.

So if it rains and it's it's ugly on Derby day, Mystic Dan

might be the play. I'm going to tell you his odds

are going to go down, but I think you'll still get 12 or 15

to 1. All right, we got Zach Tiller

here eating some food, man. Zach.

Zach. What do you mean?

Zach. Zach, what'd you get?

Zach, what'd you get? We got 2 jacks that are really

close to us, Zach. Zach Cantrell is the producer

for the Rabon Co. Also helps me out with the

basketball post. Game shows, 2K shows, that's

right. And Danner, who's the bum?

And he's not here, so. There, I agree that he's the.

Bum yeah, there it is, the four horse to me.

But by the way, catching Mystic Dan, the first horse that I

would say is a threat to hit the board because you're always

looking for that bomb like the. 20 to one or longer.

Don't think Mr. Danes win this race.

I think Mystic dance more likely to hit the board.

The door knocks. Yes, I agree.

Yes. 4 Catchy Freedom is to me, this No horse is really

polarizing. You either love them or you

don't. I'm in the camp that does not

love them. I think you're in the camp that

does love them. I did not like Mage last year,

so bet everything on catching freedom.

So go ahead. 8 to one I think you'll get all of that price on

Saturday. Maybe a little bit more.

The connections would say that you won't, but it's a 20 horse

field catch. I think fierceness is just going

to catch so much cash that other horses are going to turn into

values by the time we get to post on Saturday.

Catching Freedom is my #2 pick in the Derby.

I think he's really, really capable.

Comes out of that Louisiana Derby.

The Louisiana path to the the Kentucky Derby.

Not, frankly, a very fruitful one, I'll be very honest.

But they run it at a mile and three sixteenths.

It's only a 16th of a mile shorter than the Derby.

And one of the questions we always ask about these

three-year olds, because the Derby for many of them is the

longest race they'll ever run ever at 10 furlongs.

So 10 eighths of a mile, a mile and a quarter, quite literally.

OK, Catching Freedom has already won at a mile and three

sixteenths, and he did it in a style where he he jumbled

essentially out of the gate. He kind of drifted a little, and

he had to do all the work late and still won the race.

Connections I'm in. All right, The five horse here,

Catalytic, actually, he's a horse 30 to one that you think

could have a really solid career in horse racing.

Probably not going to win the Kentucky Derby, but it could be

a future star in our sport. If you are looking for a long

shot that has done something familiar, Catalytic ran second

in this year's Florida Derby. Last year's winner was Mage, who

also ran second in the Florida Derby last year.

By the way, we didn't mention that door.

You get Jose freaking Ortiz. I mean like you get a very top

jockey for that horses. We did not mention that door

knock. The one horse is a full brother

to mage, yeah. That's, I don't know how we

didn't do that, yes. #620 to one shot.

Just steal one of the two justified horses here.

Dewayne Lucas with a Derby starter.

Everybody will love that from a sentimental reason.

Do you like just steal? I The only reason I'm tossing

this horse is because of the jockey and not because I haven't

interviewed him. I have not because I don't think

he's a good guy. I do.

And not because I don't think he's going to be a future

jockey, a great jockey. I do.

Keith Asmussen gets his first mound in the Oaks Derby this

weekend. It's a big stage, man.

It's a big, big stage, and I think for a guy he's like 23, I

think at some point these stages are too big.

Even Tyler Gaffeleon, we kind of take for granted.

That's 29. He's still only 29, but you can

think about six more full years of riding to get keyed to that

level. I definitely see it.

By the way, I think he's that talented.

It's not a question this horse to me though, because of the

connection's just not going to. Make all right the 20 to one

shot 7 horse. This is the buzz horse this year

because of local connections. Whit Beckman literally grew up

like right over there in Anchorage, went to Saint X

having his first ever. I don't even know which

direction that. Way that way.

Yeah. You played right, Yeah.

Yeah. So Whip Beckman has his first

Derby starter here with Honor Marie getting a lot of play.

I think this horse is a little too slight to handle this kind

of bump and that might happen. What do you think?

I'm staying away from him because of what you just said.

I think a lot of people locally are just buzzing and and I

watched Danza do this and I watched, you know, other horses.

Danza. I always go to Danza, but Danza

hit the board. That's what's funny.

Danza actually hit the board. It's the worst example of a

Buzzz horse I could use, but I just as a winner, no hit the

board. Maybe Ben Curtis gets them out

here. I actually don't like that.

Everyone else seems to love that.

I don't like Ben Curtis getting them out here.

To me, he's a turf jockey, not a dirt jockey.

And you raced totally different, but I guess the point being

exactly. They like a big field won't, but

I'll tell you why. He raced a lot in Europe, much

bigger field, so he'll be used to a 20 horse type of field.

That's why people like Ben Curtis.

Lying in the United. States for the first time this

year. All right, the 8 horse.

This is my favorite Brad Cox horse.

You're not alone, by the way. You're not alone.

A lot of people like just a touch.

Yep. So this is just a touch Frenchie

on board with Brad Cox 12:50 we saw.

Flora out of the draw this year. Good to see him the he.

Did not catch the plane to the Breeders Cup that we were on.

He did not. But that was funny.

The poor stewardess is like is for Florent.

Gay rue on here and we're like, that's not how you you're not a

horse pursing person. That's what I that's what I just

learned about you. If you want the horse that has

run the most like mage from last year, just a touch, Is that

horse 2nd place finish in his last prep?

Qualified via that has been running well but not great to

this point. Only run three times.

Super lightly race, but everything else about him makes

sense. His dad is justified, won the

Derby. His mom is by tappet.

That's a two turn horse for sure.

He's totally bred for this. The connections are what they

are. Brad Cox and Florin Giroux, in

their last 66 races at Churchill Downs, have won 29% of them.

That is a huge number. Florin knows the course, so if

you want to tend to one type of horse or just want to include as

part of that late, pick three, pick 5.

Whatever you want to do just to touch, you probably have to

include. All right, the So the number 9

horse here, Encino, is scratched.

He just scratched this afternoon.

Now why that's important, Louis. And so we've heard that that

dreaded #17 slots #1 the Derby fierceness, now longer.

It's two parts. So Forever Young went from being

the first horse loaded because they do a dual load in the

Kentucky Derby. That's true one. 10 to the last.

211 All the way through he went from very first, very last, in

putting him in the gate. If you care about that stuff,

horse not having stand there for nine others to go in young might

be the biggest beneficial of the scratch.

Fierceness will go from the 17th slide to 6th slide and so even

though versus will still be for 17 the program.

That's an important point actually.

So the program numbers do not change.

OK. So Epic Ride comes in.

That's right. Epic Ride comes in as the 21

horse much like Rich Strike a couple of years ago by the way

they they both came for turf way.

I I don't know what to tell you. We just got another rich strike

in this race. I don't know what to tell.

All right now, so we're going to talk about the 10 horse.

This is the first Japanese horse.

This is TO Password Willie. I have fallen and I say why

don't? You talk about him, you're way

over. You're head over heels on.

This guy, I've actually really disliked watching the Japanese

horses. You know, I I get out there and

I watch them work in the mile shoot and then see him on the

track. This horse to me just has the

body stop type that wins the Derby.

It's got a nice ass. Let's be just be real.

It's a nice big ass and that's what happens in the Derby they

win. The Empress, one of the finest

asses I've ever seen, dominated. The other Yeah, absolutely.

And so I'm looking at this horse.

Only one has run twice. We know nothing about him.

But I'm not going to be shocked with this horse that hits the

board. I think I would be shocked

today. Horse racing, the two race thing

doesn't deter me at all. If you watch Justify come in

with three races, wins the Triple Crown, that doesn't

bother me anymore. I just don't know enough about

these horses to include them in tickets.

It's I don't want to say I'll let them beat me, but that's

kind of my attitude about this. Yeah, absolutely.

And. And that's what most people want

to be. But it should be pointed out to

Kimura's coming in from Woodlawn to ride this or from Woodbine.

Excuse me, I did that twice today, coming in from Woodbine

to ride this horse. He is the champion jockey in

Toronto every year and he's Japanese.

So clearly the the talking to the horse, the language that's

used with the Japanese horses really matters to them.

So paying for him to fly down and ride this horse should be an

interesting one. He'll be in the 9 hole on

Saturday. And I like the 11 a lot too.

Forever young. This is why I was taking so much

interest in the Japanese horses. I thought this horse was a

serious contender. I think, like you said, this

horse won the draw and now he's super won the draw.

Talk a little bit about Forever Young.

I think the most talented person is as far as a handicapper with

what's called the Daily Racing form.

The DRF is a man named Dan Ulman.

He's based in New York. He does a lot of Mid-Atlantic

things, but then does the YouTube page for Daily Racing

form. His number one on the Kentucky

Derby rankings is this horse Forever Young.

Now this is a UAE Derby horse and that is a great predictor

historically for not even hitting the board in the

Kentucky Derby. OK, they don't even hit the top

five. So it's you are going against

history if you play Forever Young.

But it is impossible to overlook Japanese success at the Breeders

Cup in recent years. And Mike and I are both of the

opinion that we will have a Japanese winner of the Kentucky

Derby I think in the next five years.

Are you in that camp? Oh, absolutely.

OK. Yeah.

This horse is fully capable of doing it.

We've seen him on the track. He breezed today.

Teal password by the way, look fantastic working out.

Today, super comfortable, right? Oh, super comfortable.

If if a Japanese horse is going to breakthrough, it could very

well be forever young. Did I startle you?

Are you good? Sorry.

Did I startle you? No, he just teal password look

good today. I I don't know what else.

To talk about good I. Don't like it.

I don't like it. I don't like it.

That 12 horse is another horse that's probably not going to win

the Derby, but you think it hit the board and you also think

could be a star later on. I think track phantom is going

to be a star at 7:00. Furlongs a Sprint horse, yeah.

I think it's going to be more of a mile or a 7 furlong type.

We'll see him in the Churchill Downs, that kind of race in

future years. See that person though?

I'm not look. No, no, no.

We had this conversation today with with Ron Moquet, really fun

one on the show. I think you got to try the

Derby. I think if you got a good

three-year old, you qualify for the Derby.

I think you got to try it and if it doesn't work, pull your horse

up. By the way, Whitmore finished

last of this thing in 2016. He won the Breeders Cup Sprint.

And then won $4 million. Yeah, right.

I mean, they named it. They named a town in Arkansas

after him. I mean, Krip's all money, right?

So look, horses can run poorly in the Derby and go on to great

careers. I don't think track Phantom's

going to run poorly, but I do think he's going to try to be

part of that early pace and I think he's going to wear out.

And so Track Phantom is an absolute toss for me.

I would say the other buzz horse right now.

Do you know? Do you?

Know why? Absolutely.

The characters in that barn are just the the we're gonna, are we

gonna get the exercise rider on. We're getting him tomorrow,

tomorrow, so, so the exercise rider for West, Saratoga's a

Jamaican kid and we're gonna talk to him tomorrow.

He's got big dreadlocks and everything is fantastic.

So and Larry's like the one of the best trainer interviews that

you could possibly have. Larry Demerit is unbelievable.

And listen. And people would have bet the

Gray horse, right? This is the only Gray horse.

I want people to know that this horse won the very first

Kentucky Derby road to the Kentucky Derby race, the

Iroquois in September over the mile course at Churchill Downs.

So the horses won a Churchill. If you want an angle, that would

be it. The other part is Larry Tamerit

has a tiny operation. He has had 14 starters this

year, 14 fifteenth start and he's like this.

He weighs less than my 12 year old and this would be his second

win of the year. He has one win this year and

he's got a runner of the Kentucky Derby.

He's this is the rich striker this year.

Honestly, that's. Absolutely.

Like, how rare is it, Louis, for an Iroquois winner to make?

It to the we had two horses that won early.

The 1st 2 Derby preps made the gate.

That's. Unheard of.

What I What I should do right now is commend Larry for how

incredibly difficult it is, especially with Colts, to be

good in September and be good in May.

And that's what he's trying to do.

It's it's very it's it is worth. It's remarkable.

It's worth remarkable. All right, Louie, here it is.

We are talking about endlessly. I need to know, is it that you

love endlessly? Or do you love the Jeff Ruby

stakes? Or a little bit of both.

It is both. I also love that Mike McCarthy

doesn't want to run this horse. I think he's a liar.

I think he's lying about that. I think he knows what he has and

I think this horse is going to sit.

You think he's down playing the whole thing, huh?

Absolutely. He's blaming the 90 something

owners, which is the easiest thing to do.

They can't hear so he can say whatever he wants.

Over here Mr. Havocamp. I I think the horse sits.

The second. Behind a ridiculous pace and I

think he's in the mage spot. The I mean the Orb spot.

I actually Orb is probably the best.

The best way that I can describe it if 2013 runs back endlessly

wins the Derby on Saturday at a price of like 4045 to 1.

By the way, we. The other thing we need to do is

turf way. We need to talk about the Jeff

Ruby Stakes. I want everyone to look me in

the face right now. Did you notice there used to be

a conference called the PAC 10 and then it was the PAC 12 and

now it doesn't exist anymore And those schools are all going to

conferences centered around Indiana and Texas.

OK, we need to get over this stuff in horse racing about what

the great tracks are and what the the other ones aren't.

The Jeff Ruby Stakes produced the 2nd place finisher last year

in two fills and he did every bit of the work last year.

Rich Strike finished third in that race a couple of years ago

and won the damn thing before they switched the surface.

Animal Kingdom won the 2012 Kentucky Derby I just mentioned.

The race at Keeneland hasn't had a winner since 1991.

We've had two and a second place finisher out of turf way.

Stop telling me that Keeneland's a better predictor for success

at Churchill Downs. Look at all of you.

You understand me? Does everyone understand me?

Good. OK.

Endlessly. Thank you, Sir.

Endlessly. Serious shot here.

And you're going to get a serious price.

I mean, two fills, one in the Ohio Derby.

Well, how prestigious is that? All right, He.

Ran second in the Kentucky Derby.

What? Do you the 15?

Horse. If I give you a horse at 40 to

one that runs second in the wrong, get over yourself.

The 15. The 15 is domestic product, 30

to one shot here this is I ran Chad, but on the dirt.

Yes, that's right. Domestic product.

One. If you want a great finish to a

Derby race, go back. Watch the Tampa Bay Derby.

Four horses right on the wire. He was one of them.

What if you want to make the case for domestic product?

It's the connections first jockey trainer for sure.

Son a practical joke. And mom is by painter.

Both of those really, really good two turn sires.

The thing here that you would have to like about the Tampa Bay

Derby. Terrible predictor of success in

the Derby is that was a very slow race and he needs pace to

run into and he still overcame it.

So if you wanted to make the case for domestic product in

this one, it's those three things essentially.

One of the That's a lot, by the way.

All those are really good one. Of the things you're supposed to

do is bet the first Derby that you see on the Derby horse you

see on the backside. OK, grandmo the 1st.

For me, that was Grandmo the 1st.

I'm probably not going to bet Grandma the first.

Oh, I'm. You're too old, but do you know

the show? Sophia the 1st.

I've heard of. It Are there any parents in

here? Know Sophia?

Oh, there's a granddad, right? There.

Oh. There's a mom.

There she is. There's a dad.

OK, so when I see Grandma the first, I think Grandma the

first. That's what I think.

So if anyone else is thinking that, there it is.

Boom. All right.

OK, yeah, no, but I should be. Making and ask yourself, right?

What else you got to say about grandmother first?

There you go. Yeah.

I would not bet this horse. Yeah, this horse, third by 10

lengths in the Florida Florida Derby.

I should tell the story. I also tossed Abel Tasman for

that reason out of the Santa Anita Oaks, and then she

dominated the Kentucky Oaks. I'll be very clear.

I did not like him in the mornings, which means he'll win

the Kentucky Derby. All right, we're going to talk.

The next three horses to me are super fascinating.

We're going to talk about the Derby favorite fierceness.

Now breaking down the 16 spot the besmirched winner of the

Santa Anita Derby with Stronghold and then Resilience

the winner of the wood. So we've got three straight 100

point winners. Winners, right?

Here and for a long time in the point system that.

Mattered. That matters.

Right, so statistically we talk about stats and horse racing all

the time. Winning 100 point Race matters,

17/18/19 Saddle claws all did exactly that.

And fierceness has an owner of Mike Rapoli, He's kind of shy, a

little reserved. We're hoping a win in the

Kentucky Derby will help bring him out of his.

Shell, it would be nice. You know you you you cheer for

the small guy. Yeah, right.

These billionaires. The vital, the vital water guy,

you know. Let's go for it.

All right, let's talk fierceness here, Louis.

I firmly believe that if this horse has no trouble runs his

race, there's no horse that can beat him.

If he got it gets his trip. That's right.

To me, he's a 5050 horse. He either runs it or he doesn't.

So to me, he won't miss the board.

Yes, that's it. So my my concern about

fierceness is very simple. If John Velazquez cannot keep

this horse from joining what I think is going to be a torrid

pace up front, he's going to run out of of steam.

He's going to run out of gas, and he's not going to be part of

the equation. At the end, I think he'll get to

the 8th pole and he'll just start fading and a bunch of

horses will pass it. Now like you said, he's looked

great. We should mention that he's

looked fantastic. He looks very comfortable with

Churchill Downs, horse runs his race, he wins.

And so if you're if you're playing one of those multi race

sequences we talk about if you leave fierceness out that's that

is a decision, that's an absolute decision.

All right, we're going on next. The 18 here is Stronghold 20 to

one Shot Lily. I can never remember a Santa

Anita Derby winner. This horse not even really

besmirched. It might have been the wrong

word, like ignored in a lot of ways. 20 to 1 here on

Stronghold. I think this horse is actually.

I think this horse hits the board.

Was that you? Nice.

I like that a lot. I mentioned Antonio Fraso, who's

going to be riding here, really, really quality Italian jock for

Phil D'amato here. They hook up a lot.

They win at about 20%. Go back and watch the San Anita

Derby. The thing that you would like

the most about Stronghold is that he was behind two horses

and forced a path between them. And in the Derby you have to do

stuff like that. You have to be willing to make

make your own way into traffic. You really do.

And so I like that a lot, frankly, a lot about Stronghold.

I simply don't know if he's fast enough to win the Kentucky

Derby. I just don't know.

And that's really the issue for me with him.

Did win the sanity like you mentioned before, that one in

freaking New Mexico, in the Sunland Derby.

OK, so this is a horse that can travel and win.

Before that ran second in the low S futurity behind Baffert

and before that second behind Nicos.

If nice those were healthy, he'd be the best 3 year old in the

country right now. It is what it is.

So running second to that horse, Not a big deal. 20 to one is an

unbelievable price and I think you're going to get every bit of

that. Maybe 25 all.

Right. We're going to move on to the

next one, which is resilience winner, the Wood Memorial 100

point race. We've seen Resilience a lot this

this week. If you want to make the case for

Resilience, it's about Aqueduct in the surface this year for

three-year olds, the Remsen. In December, we had three Derby

starters running that race, domestic product ran 7th and

that door knock and Sierra Leone ran 1/2 right next to each other

in a very famous stretch duel. Now at Aqueduct, they all left,

took time off and won their first race back at three

different tracks. So maybe Aqueduct is just

traveling really well and the Wood Memorial this year for some

reason is just different. With the renovation at Belmont

Park, they're having to run a lot more at Aqueduct, so they

had to change up the surface a little bit.

I wonder about that, Danny Gargan the other day told me.

I'm a total idiot for thinking that, but I I do believe that.

And I think that if you're going to get a Wood Memorial winner,

Resilience is as good as any. Next we've got the 20 horse

society. Man, this is a 50 to one shot

that I actually do think could hit the board.

Danny Gargan's second starter here.

Tutori on board. What do you like about?

This if you include him in a super or a try or something like

that is that it is Frankie Dettori being a veteran jockey

and making all the right decisions.

That's not a bad angle. That really isn't.

It's not a bad angle. We we sat down with Danny

yesterday I I he seemed weirdly confident about this horse.

Weirdly, I'm. Actually, I'm liking this horse,

actually finishes ahead of door knock.

I think he thinks that too, yeah.

And that's where and he talks a lot about Dettori.

Dettori and Dettori. Really.

Obviously someone he respects they've they've hooked up 0

times before. This is what happens in the

Kentucky Derby. Once in a while you just have a

jock and a trainer that have never gotten together.

But it's the freaking $5,000,000 Kentucky Derby.

So they get them. They get them hooked up.

I I don't like this horse. But if you want to, if you're a

jockey, if you're a person that follows jocks, follows that kind

of thing. Society man might be included in

longer ticket, yeah? All right, the also eligible

that got in today was Epic Ride. John Ennis has done a great job

with this horse, training this horse like he was going to be in

the Derby, knowing that the likelihood of someone scratching

was up there. Biscuit gets the ride.

What do you think about Epic Crash?

I really like John. I got to interview him a couple

weeks ago. I just, I don't.

I don't know the scenario where this horse wins the Kentucky

Derby. I don't know what it looks like.

Go hit the board. I don't know the scenario of the

Kentucky Derby where this horse hits the board.

I don't know what it is. That doesn't mean it can't

happen. It's the freaking Derby.

Sure. I just.

I don't know what that looks like.

And starting in that far, far outside gate takes a special

horse like Big Brown to be successful.

I I will, I will let Epic Ride beat me this year.

The last horse that we've got, Bugattu, is the other also

eligible. Let's talk about what has to

happen, Louis, for Mugattu to get in the race in the first.

Not a whole lot. You gotta do one more scratch

before Friday, basically. Friday morning.

Right. Yeah.

Friday at 9:00 AM, is that the cut off 9 or 10?

Yeah. Right.

Yeah. So if a if a horse scratches

after that, we got to, he's out of the race and we'll have

nineteen horses, right. So we have two scratches.

We're gonna have nineteen horses we got to get to happen.

To 2016 with Whitmore. That's why, Whitmore finished.

Absolutely. All right, so the official Derby

pigs, Louis, are on the board. Are you gonna really put

endlessly out there? I'm in public.

This is why Ben Roberts asked me to talk to my.

Best friends here, Yeah, I got endlessly on top.

I really trust the Ruby as the modern best predictor outside of

the Florida Derby for success. But Louis Fiercest won the

Florida. I get it.

But the horse bounces. He's in every other horse.

So fiercest doesn't show up on Saturday, which is a possibility

where he gets caught in that pace duel.

I think a horse, like endlessly, someone more mid pack than say a

Sierra Leone is going to be able to win this race.

And the surface at Churchill, those horses travel well from

from Florence they do. I'm not worried about this horse

at all. I think the bluster is totally

made-up. I don't buy any of it.

And so I'm going to look for endlessly to be on top of the

Derby. And you have fierceness on here

as your third pay to win. To win but not to come in like

this would not be a super effective bet.

You. Would.

I would not bet those four. Horses.

Yeah, again. Endlessly or not endlessly.

Fierceness is either going to win this race or probably finish

my tops like 15th or something. All right.

Now what I love, what I love. A stretch duel between

fierceness and Sierra Leone. You bet your ass I would.

I would love it. I just don't.

That's a very unlikely scenario with twenty horses.

I think we should have a pretty exciting Kentucky Derby.

I think we're gonna have good weather, knock on wood.

We're also set up to have an. Amazing Dan.

How about that? Preakness Stakes.

We should have an amazing Preakness Stakes.

We're gonna be out there as well in in Pimlico again this week.

1:50 tomorrow. ESPN 68010 to 2:00 on Thursday.

11:50. 11:50, Sorry. Yep, I'm already thinking about

my other schedule. 11:50 on on Thursday, 10:00 to 1:10 to 1:00

on Friday, 11:00 to 2:00 on Saturday.

We'll be there for all your coverage and.

I tell people all the time, if you drive it somewhere, throw

the radio on. If you're getting ready for a

Derby party, throw it on your smart speaker.

Whatever you got to do, we'll be on all day.

I I I want to thank Mike Penna for doing the pregame show for

us. Absolutely.

Thank. You horse racing radio network

leading into our show. Mike, if you're out there, I.

Want to thank all the people here who came out to see Hear

this, Hear us Gas backs. Make sure you tip your servers.

We're going to pay the tab. We're going to get out of here.

This has been the horse racing happy hour.