All right, Welcome to another edition of the Horse Racing
Happy Hour. What do you need to have a hero?
I got top of cheetah glass. Here you go.
That was. I'm at your house, man.
I'm all right. I'm at the mercy of your
present. While we're on the topic, Mikey
Doble here with Louie Ribeau while we're on the topic of
glasses to go chink chink with. First off, do you know?
What they say in France? What they say?
Chin, chin. Chin, chin, chin.
How about that? All right.
Yeah. You like that is Yeah, sure.
OK. Wee, wee.
OK. What?
Did they say in Italy, do you know?
Chin, chin. I.
Was going to say they different? Yeah, there you go.
They the shout out to Rachel for taking care of us again.
I didn't get to see her a whole lot because I had to bounce a
little bit early. Did you get to hang out, Rachel?
You you were there, what, 65 minutes?
I was there for. We did the show for 56 and then
you were bought. For 9 minutes, Yeah.
I I hung out for two races at oh, did you?
Yeah. OK, got it.
Yeah. I mean not with me, but with
people. You know what?
Roger Browning, our boy was sitting by himself.
So. I oh RB All right, so my table's
over. Yeah, went over and hung out
with Roger for a while. And it's always a good
relationship for us to have, right.
So doesn't hurt Roger. I'm sure he's listening to you.
Access to that that owners area there.
You go and so, and I want to say thanks to Paula Duca because.
It was so awesome have him on. He was a natural, He was great
and we could have probably talked with Paul La Duca about
baseball and horse racing forever.
He found out he's a Louisville now.
Yeah, he's living. Well, how about that?
Living nearby? Yeah, yeah, how about that?
There you go. Congrats to him.
And so, yeah. Did you get to see Rachel after
I left? Yeah.
Yeah. All right.
So what happened? What happened after I left?
Everything. Yeah.
Well, you leave and then all the.
Races like where's Mike? No.
What is the opposite of that? Yeah, no, no.
But it turned into you saw the stuff on Twitter, right?
No, You're kind of aware of Twitter a little.
I got really busy. So did you.
Yeah. Yeah, So.
No, like we we did what you always do after the Indiana
Derby, which is what. Did you go to B devs?
Oh, there it is. I love.
That just got her hat on backwards.
Love it. And then basically saying crew,
that was there last year, right? Many of the same folks, yeah.
Yeah, and there's bigger crowd. So, bigger crowd this year.
That's right. Yeah.
I did meet Jenna Otten this year.
OK, who does all the handicapping simulcast work up
at Scioto Downs in Scioto Downs in Columbus?
OH OK, how about that? She has a small car tonight at
Scioto. 16 races, 16. It's a Thursday for her.
Holy cow. It's like 16 races, no big deal.
Well, it's. Like I'm putting my Do Not
Disturb here in my Apple Watch. There you go.
That would have been a thing to do 5 minutes ago.
Yeah, sorry about that. Well, it's usually like
constantly on Do Not Disturb so but.
I don't know what happened. Whose cocaine do you think is at
the White House? Come on now.
Do you believe them that it's in an area without cameras?
No, I would hope every inch of the White House has cameras.
Right. My favorite thing is the initial
report was it's in a highly trafficked area.
And then they're like, yeah, it doesn't have cameras.
Like I lied to, you know, we all lie to people.
I lie to my kids. You lie to me, people lie to.
People, I've never lied, but that's a When have I lied to
you? When?
We're going to close on your house.
You know this. Kind of.
Oh, well, that wasn't me lying. That was you.
Me giving you the information that I had at the time.
That was, by the way, that was all my stress of last weekend.
And it's my stress tonight, too. Is.
Is me. No, not you.
Just from the real estate side. Like, we have not to go too far
into this. But at our office, yeah.
We are very conscious about not making promises for the lender
that they can't deliver on. That's not how most real estate
agents work. All right.
I'm finding that out. It's very common in the country.
And so four Closings, I went to bed last Thursday night, no, did
not know if we're going to have three Closings or no Closings.
Woke up the next morning, thought we were going to 0
Closings, end up having two Closings.
And I'm kind of back in that same for tomorrow in the
Danville area because I'm going to Lexing tomorrow for a couple
different reasons. Closing two properties would
would be one of them, so. Got it.
That's a hell of a thing. Yeah, so who you work with on
the buy side matters. And as Louie can tell you, like
as good as we can be sometimes I can't fix stupid on the other
side. So a couple good things today.
OK, so let's go. Let's go positive.
All right, how did lions cocaine was found at the White House?
It is friend of the show Matt Dinnerman's birthday.
What? How about that?
Happy birthday, Matt. Dinner Happy birthday to Matt
Dinnerman, handicap on Twitter. Happy birthday to Joey Vito's
nerdy little brother. 1 billion percent second thing.
That's good. I'm an uncle again today.
Congratulations. My sister had a baby.
Yeah, it's hers. I don't nieces and nephews Do
you? Have I have 7?
OK, let's see. I got.
I have to count. I have 7, so I have 4:00 with my
sister, OK? And then I have seven.
My brother-in-law has two, and then my other brother-in-law has
one. Yeah.
How about that? All right.
Good deal. Nice.
Congratulations. Yeah, no, I'm excited.
I get to meet him in at the end of the month, actually.
Will you be, Will you be done at 7:00 or do you think there'll be
more? I'm done at 7:00.
I don't think there's any more. I would guess we're done.
There's a chance for one more, but I doubt it.
It would be one of my brothers in law, excuse me, but they had
to adopt and I think it's stunningly hard to adopt in
this. I guess I could have a
sister-in-law who adopts, but it would be difficult with her line
of work. Yeah, I got it.
There you go, Okay. Well, those things matter for
sure. In case you're wondering what
we're gonna talk about today, we'll go through some replays.
Yes, there are boys Zach as well.
Well, and that was the third thing to be happy about.
Yeah, we gotta give, I mean. Is that our guy?
Zach. Producer Zach.
New job today. Yep, About an hour before the
show said, hey, wife wants to go celebrate.
Could we do that? Absolutely.
And I told him, listen. Depends on how you're gonna
celebrate the. Horse racing happy hour is the
number one thing, but he said hey man, I was like, OK, go do
that. It's gonna go some good.
Job. Zack's gonna get some tonight.
Great jobs back. Good job.
Congratulations on the sex, yes. There you go.
So you leave. I left.
Horseshoe, Yeah. And then the racing gets weird.
It got weird, by the way. Great job they got.
They got the track fast. That's all by the end of.
The day Dude, you have no idea. Yeah, it was.
It was fast by the Grace 5. Yeah, it's fantastic.
And like they were building an arc in the infield before that
it was raining that hard you you were drove through so.
It was unbely crazy. We looked outside, the rain was
sideways and falling at an incredible rate, right?
So yeah, that was they did a great job for sure.
We have a friend of the show that I sent pictures of cuz he's
a pretty big handicapper. I was like man, it's it's wet
out there, but they they did an awesome job.
Able to stay on the turf for all the all the stakes.
Wow as well. Which is impressive, but yeah,
no. I turned into a turned into a
nice day all. Right.
And then and then you all got to hang out of BW threes.
And then we went to B dubs and they did all the spicy.
Chicken Did the owner of the winning connections of Verify
show up at BW Threes? They weren't in town, so no.
OK, how about that? The Brad Hawks show up.
He did not. Did you invite Brad Hawks?
To be so I did. On it's.
Like you're now good buddies with him.
On it's Louie on Friday we had him on and I said what are you
doing after you win the Indiana Derby?
Because we all go to B dubs and he said I'm going home to sleep
so I can get up at 4:30 to watch.
Workout OK, So what time did ISIL leave?
He left after us, so he was at the track until 10:30 at night.
Yes, we. Went to the casino then.
Watching. No, he was in the OTV watching
the Iowa Derby. Cuz he's Dan Isel and he's got a
problem, which is why we like Dan Isel.
I too like Dan Isel. I can't believe I can say that.
Dan Isel is like a friend. He's absolutely.
A friend. It's like he's your friend, of
course. Kentucky's all time.
League score well, my buddy Nate came with a shout out doctor.
Doctor Hughes he. Like just be like hanging out
with this. I did ruin his day though.
How's that cuz I told him the Joby Hall story.
Which Joby Hall story? Like how much money is still got
to go to Kentucky? I don't think I've ever heard
that. It's all told I told.
It on there. Well, I don't as much as you
think that I just tuned in from 11:50.
No, but what I'm saying is I'm not breaching trust.
Here. OK, So what was the story?
It's just, you know, like trips are paid for and there's
envelopes and there's, you know, I.
Heard something about, like someone like a pharmacist, deep
like. Pharmacy dollars.
I heard that story. It depends on how they play.
Yeah, yeah, that's a good one. But no, just, you know, like.
Coupons. Like, come for dinner, sit down
with the family. There's an envelope on the
table, you know, and don't worry about it, you know, don't worry
about it. But it broke it.
It broke Dr. Hughes's heart. Because he just thought it was.
All he thought it was all pure. Yeah, there's lots of purity.
And I just smiled. I'm like, yeah, they got, they
got Pat Riley to move there from New York City because, you know,
that's that's what guys from New York did back then.
Let's just move to Lexington. To play for a segregated teams
instead of playing in New York, that's what they did.
You know that that that was the play.
No, you need the back. It's Okay.
So how much was it? Did he say?
What's that? How much was did he get?
I guess it wasn't like a one time shot.
So it was lots of different moments, Yeah.
Like he wasn't supposed to go on a second official that got paid
for. Dad didn't want to drive to all
the games, flights would show up.
You know, that kind of stuff. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Frankly, all the stuff he talks about.
Probably should be paid for anyway.
Like, yeah, yeah. Yeah, it's legal town.
Yeah, right. So.
It's not just like he would walk out of the game and there'd be
$1000 waiting for him at his debt, his locker or something.
It wasn't like that. Well, I'm sorry that Nathan got
his heart broken. What about your other buddy?
Did he have a fun time? Was it Chris or Scott?
Scott Scott Yeah, Scott Scott had a good time.
He has been. He went to the first ever.
Listen, by the way, yes, all right, shout out to Scott.
Scott also listens to Islam Louie, which I don't understand
why, but he. He went on the first time we
ever went to Oaks, so our first ever big horse racing day he
went. All right, Sweet.
So Scott's been around since the beginning, so one of my OG
friends, he was the one I usually go to, the Arlington.
Million. That was not a dude I've met
before, though. Had you not met Scott?
I don't think so. Man, I've known Scott since I
met him in €90.00. One die scored.
Together. No, it's college.
Um probably met him in 2001, 2002, 1001, something like that.
So when do my friends get to start going to the whenever you
want? OK.
You have to have friends first. Oh my God.
You know, we get Doctor Wes to go with, so you need it every
next year. That would be a lot of fun.
Be like, be like a strip club, just cash, raining everywhere.
Tell you what. Yeah, we got to get Doctor Wes
and then our plastic surgeon buddy to go with us and you
know, stay at the my my highlight was walking into, you
know, I parked in the garage. Sure.
And who as one does? Who parks in front of me but the
illustrious? Ed to Rosa.
That's right, yeah. Yeah.
You got to walk over to the yard like.
Ed and I got to hang out for a little bit, walk in, and we got
to the elevator. He's like, oh, I got to go
downstairs because they, they put the media.
All the way in the back longer. Yeah, and it was like a
definitely they would got downgraded and far as their.
Well, the media room, they figured out they could sell us a
suite for like 25 grand. And they did.
And they did it. Yeah, because they had a great
crowd. Oh yeah.
Yeah. So one beef, by the way.
I don't know. I love my flask beef.
We got the flask this year. Did you open that up?
I I didn't take anything. You.
Didn't take a backpack? No.
I got 2 for jockey Joe Ramos so he could give one to his
girlfriend and one to his mom, OK?
And then I gave one to all the guys that came with us.
But you took all the tshirts. I got one for my producer on the
radio and one for my wife, who slept at hers last night.
OK. Does she own?
Like that's it? That's what she does with them.
She sleeps in the night. Good.
What? No, I just, you know.
We've been sleeping. Tshirts I know, OK.
You're married to a woman, right?
Yeah, she's. Here she knows.
Yeah, OK, she's not here, actually.
She. Went out making us money.
She's not showing houses. So the Yeah.
So that was awesome. The the flask is topnotch.
However, I was a huge fan of last year's Indiana Derby glass.
The which is more of a Tom Collins.
These are sparks been coming Just get ready for with your.
Drink with the the monotone all green, which I think you like
as. Well, I like the all green.
Right. And I will say this is a higher
quality glass than what we get at Churchill Downs for the Derby
glasses. I mean that's a heavy bottom.
It is nicer, yes, it's a nicer glass, but they went to more of
the traditional mint jewel of glass that you would get at
Churchill Downs. So I'm a little, little
disappointed in that, but that's, you know and it's got
multiple colors on it and whatever else but.
It's nicer and I don't like it. Yeah, I don't know.
I really like drinking out of these glasses.
I think I'm down to two of them. So let's play the verifying
replay. You want to watch a little
verifying. Because I have a verifying hot
take. You got to verify well, and I've
besmirched the horse, which meant he was going to win.
Yeah, of course. And let me pull it up real quick
while we kind of get this rolling.
All right here, verifying the five, here Racing 2, Kali
Ostros. The eight who tries to get
through there gets cut there. Raise Kane on the outside.
Race came man looking strong. Verifying holding on.
And there it is. Verifying gets the W in the
Indiana Derby. What's your hot take on that?
You know, we thought we were wondering if verifying was like
one of those horses just like to run second and third.
And he did. He did good.
That's his last graded sticks one.
Okay. Verifying's done winning graded
sticks. They got it.
Well, you think he's probably, he probably is like legit a
Grade 3 horse, right? That's.
That's just who he is. He's a great three horse and
there are so few graded stakes at one turn mile and that's what
he needs to be running. So we're not going to see
verifying the like the prediscovery.
So at Santa Anita, he's not good enough for the classic.
And then the mile is going to be two turns, what we see.
Verifying in the Clark Brad Hawks.
Boy, that's a really good question.
What is the race on the undercard there?
I couldn't tell you. I'd have to look.
Yeah, I'd have to look too. I'm gonna go, no, I don't think
he makes it to the Clark OKI think they know he's in good
form now and he's got his greatest stakes win and they'll
move him out to the to the bar. Oh, you think he's like going to
go to stud? Yes.
Oh wow. I think he might have a little
bit more racing in him than that.
I got to remember which. There we go.
Got to get the right screen on there.
So. So verifying wins.
Raising cane though race cane looked really, really good.
I was impressed. You know, verifying went to the
lead early and then they kind of settled the man, right.
That's in that stalking position.
Stayed second and third the entire way.
It was a good ride. I mean, at the end of the day I
thought it was a really good. Ride.
I thought him and Raising came. Both got ideal trips.
I agree with most people on Twitter that Kali Oster got
totally cut off, but if if jockeys would stop diving to the
to the rail, they'd stop screwing their horses out of
good spots and they keep diving to the rail.
You have to know that. You have to know the verifying
is not going to stay in the middle of the track there.
You have to know that that that reminds me of, like right before
I left we had a heavy favorite. The one horse was like a heavy,
heavy favorite. The race right before I left and
I left and I put, I did think he was vulnerable.
So like, I bet him $100 to show on purpose because I thought it
was vulnerable. Just looking at his PP's, I
thought for sure he hit the top three and I thought he got cut
off like no other. And so when I'm walking out to
the parking lot carrying all the stuff you like, I don't know if
you butt dialed me or you or what you did, but.
You called me, so I did call you.
Yeah. Did you call me for a legit
reason? I did.
OK, well, I still don't know what that is, so.
What? We found the thing we were
looking for. We thought maybe you had packed
it up. OK, great.
OK. So I was like, oh, there must be
an inquiry. So I when you when I didn't hear
back from you immediately. Your horse was party
constitution finished. 5th started looking for my ticket
whenever I was. He got cut off like no other,
like he got moved out of the way but I guess they deemed it not
wasn't going to impact the race. I think it would have impacted
his finish for sure so but. Tis tis what it is.
So, all right, let's go on to the Indiana Oaks and.
I got this one very wrong so you.
Got it. Very wrong.
Very wrong. Here we go with the Indiana
Oaks. Defining purpose up front with
Melatza. In seconds we come down, Taxed
is in fourth. We're going to see tax.
Really, you know, lose steam here, right?
Yeah, it. Didn't have enough.
Defining purpose looking really strong.
All right, Defining purpose was the horse that we kind of
besmirched, right? Like we like the whole show
thought that defining purpose wouldn't really have a shot
there proved us all wrong. I also by the way mile and a 16.
I don't think it matters if they go mile and an eighth.
Yeah, I think the finding purpose wins that race.
That was the only way to win races the last couple of weeks
at Horseshoe was you had to be out front and so they Hirono
trying to come from off the pace which I get it, that's the
horses running style. Wasn't wasn't ever going to be
good enough. I did not expect to find any
purpose to be in the lead at that point, so they did a very
good job. Brighton Herdannis Junior in
that case. And that's the reason I didn't
like the one in that one race. That right because he liked to
come off the pace as well and he tried in that race and he just
couldn't do it. I mean it was it was an upfront
day for sure. Shout out to my buddy Daniel for
this cigar by the way. It is legit.
Oh, they're great. Yeah, Olivia, but this is a
special edition. It's 135th edition for them.
So they came out with this perfecto shape which is really
unique and it's, it's, it's yummy, I'm enjoying it quite a
bit. So the yumminess overflow with.
The yumminess overflow with yes for sure.
I usually like. I don't I didn't for some reason
grab a drink and so oh I normally would be like and no
this is this is good. I'm not going to have a lot of
after taste or anything like that so all right.
So what else happened this week anything else big time.
No, I played an hour of blackjack.
How about that? At the casino.
Yeah, the renovation's beautiful.
They did a good job. Did you end up with money in
your pocket or did you take a hit?
Yes. But I also took a hit.
Okay. So both, Yes, Okay at.
The end of the world. Good hour of entertainment.
Yeah. Yeah, that's fun.
All right. I didn't go into the renovations
at the casino, so that's great. I'm glad to.
Hear you will barely were there at all.
The definite flyby from Mike and.
Elfa, the other thing that I think.
Big time to all of us. We might want to just talk about
real quickly. And you, I'm sure, talked about
this on your ESPN show, Mr. Big Time, the plan for sports
betting in Kentucky. Yeah.
So what did you think about Andy Beshear's announcement there?
So September 7, we'll have brick and mortar betting in this
state. That's obviously the first week
of the NFL. So no.
So that's at Churchill. They haven't announced that yet.
OK? We don't know where that's going
to be in Louisville. We know that Red Mile is going
to host the Lexington. It's probably going to be the
pop level facility I would assume to you, right, I mean.
I well, why did they build that first turn club?
Well, I think it's going to be both those places.
OK. They're good.
Well, I think downtown is going to be the one.
That's not open by September. It's not open.
Yet yeah. Right.
That's gonna be the place. So what I'm saying is I think
there might be 3 or 4. Oh yeah, I totally think that's
the breaking more. Why?
But you know, everyone's waiting for us to go.
The interesting thing, and I thought about this the other
day, is. A huge part of our on on the
radio side, a huge part of our audience lives in Indiana, so 30
percent, 35%. And if you're a better in
Louisville, you probably already had an account that you used to
go over the bridge and bed in Indiana, right?
But I like I don't. I don't either, but what I'm
getting at is if you if you already have that account.
The willingness of of companies to set up in the state of
Kentucky might be a little bit lower because they might feel
they already have a captive audience.
So Lexington between Red Mile and and Keeneland is only hooked
up with Caesars and no one else. And that's a little surprising
because I just kind of assumed if they were going to have
something, they would have multiple outlets, multiple
options, right. So I'm a little surprised to see
that, but they only have the one and I'm wondering if either
Caesars paid them a fee to be the only.
The connection exclusive. The exclusive, or if there's
just not as much as they were hoping, Lexington would be a
better case study, though, because it's further from any of
the borders. It's harder to get to Tennessee.
It's harder to get to Ohio. Louisville's obviously right
here, so even from your house right here, which is not
necessarily near the river. We're not far from the river
here. We could still be there in 10-12
minutes. Yeah, right.
I mean, we're pretty close. And at the I'm a little
disappointed that they're gonna miss the first weekend of
college football. Correct I.
Think that's the big? And then we'll have three weeks
after that, the 28th, the mobile betting will start.
So the September 7th Louisville has a home football game.
Do we do the show from Churchill Downs?
While they're doing some last sports betting and about the
Lions, do I have horse racing? Bet the Lions will lose to the
Chiefs. Yeah.
Is that going on that weekend? That night?
Yeah. Well, the Lions will definitely
lose the Chiefs if you bet it straight up.
I don't know about what the spread's gonna be, but.
Chiefs by a billion. You don't know, man.
My Lions are gonna be so. Bad They showed some.
It's the most overrated. Everyone's overwounded.
You haven't. 1957 That's all I can.
Say that division's not very good this year, except, you
know. Watch the Packers win it anyway,
cuz they actually have a culture.
Yeah, well, yeah, The Vikings. I'll be seeing that Lambo for
the first time next week. There you go, yeah.
Doing a tour or something, Or you just.
I don't know. I mean, I'm guessing we'll do
the tour. I haven't booked anything, but
we're driving. We're vacationing next week and
it's. Gonna is Lambo like Churchill
and? Indianapolis Motor Speedway and.
It's got more character than that.
Augusta Is it like it's more like Augusta?
Is it one of those places? Augusta.
Notre Dame Stadium. That kind of.
Notre Dame Stadium OK, yeah, I I lumped Notre Dame Stadium in
many, many, many college football stadiums because it's
it's other than the Jesus at the one end of it.
Yeah, it's it's pretty. Generic.
Yeah. It's pretty generic, yeah.
So now I know the traditions around it are different.
But lots of colleges have have good, you know, pregame
traditions, that kind of stuff. So I'll tell you, I love going
to the Notre Dame football game. I know you do.
So probably go to the local game They play in Louisville this
year, they do so. I'll be a nice crowd, probably.
Yeah, I mean Notre Dame and Kentucky or home games for
Louisville this year. I mean, that's.
That's a good thing to have on your schedule, especially when
you got brand new coach and A. Lot of excitement.
And whatever else like your schedule money was.
So will we start talking a little like football
handicapping at all in this show in the fall?
I mean not if I have anything to say with it.
Because I'm going to be doing that for hours every day.
I'm not just. Come sit down with me.
All right. Yeah.
Yeah. But I I mean, I am a little
bummed that, but I, I I do think that that first night, September
7th, Churchill's going to do it, right.
That's a Churchill race day. Lord was going to have a
football game. It's going to be it could be
really cool. So maybe we.
Need What's the percentage chance or not a back at
Churchill in September? Oh, I think they're back in
Churchill in September. I don't think there's anything
wrong the track in the first place.
Okay, that didn't matter then for the move.
No, the move was for optics though, right?
I mean, so they didn't and Churchill was like, hey, we got
an opportunity to do this for optics and we got all these
other construction projects. So we can get a head start on,
you know, I think they looked at it as like a win, win from that
standpoint, so. They're they're going to be
there in September. You know I I don't think there's
any question they'll definitely be there for the for the Clark
in the November meet. So I don't think they're going
to miss the opportunity to have the both wagering opportunities,
the horse racing and the sports gambling at the same time.
I mean especially Can you imagine if the Reds are still
good at that point and the Reds are still contender.
And by the way I don't disagree with your take on I heard you
say something about 88 wins. But as a Reds fan, that sounds
freaking awesome. No, but it's also like given the
start of the season too. Yeah, I don't think 88.
I wasn't besmirching them at all.
No, I think it's fantastic. Yeah, I will say that their
schedule in the second-half is way using their schedule in the
first, OK. OK.
Because they don't have to play the we're also.
Assuming they're going to stay hot and baseball isn't always
that way, no. But baseball labs and flows as
much as any. I mean, maybe more than any.
Sport and eventually Ellie Daily Cruz is going to cool off a
little bit, but he's still going to.
Do it? People come back to the mean
more in baseball than they do almost in any sport.
Right. Yeah.
So, but. My prediction last fall in
October was that the Reds would be better this year because I
really believed in the young town that they had that they
would be above 500 next year and they'd be contenders in two
years in 2025. So to me, like them being ahead
of schedule and most people never saw this whatsoever, I
mean. Oh, I definitely didn't, Yeah.
Oh, the jokes early of the year when I was reading, hey, we've
got Reds coverage tonight, as they, you know, as they careen
toward a hundred losses, I mean, for sure.
No one. No one burst merges in more than
Andy Sweeney so. Yeah, I wasn't involved in that.
All right, let's do our horse racing 101.
All right, Let me get I get to be the star.
You are the 101 star and you're talking about a very interesting
thing with that with takeout rates.
So let's cue the logo and the music here.
I'm producing since Zach has got getting some.
BA Zach. Zach To Bow Bow Welcome to Horse
Racing 101 with a Horse Racing Happy hour sponsored by the
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All right, Louie, today we're going to talk about probably I'm
a little bit more of an advanced gambling tactic, but something
that gamblers definitely pay attention to that most fans,
well most fans don't even understand that there is a
takeout to begin with. So let's talk about takeout
rates. It's at least not visible,
right? It's not something that's
visible. We'll talk about takeout rates
today. I'm going to focus on NYRA
because we're going to talk about Saratoga.
So I'm not picking on or supporting NYRA at all in this,
Mike. I'm just using them as an
example of Saratoga. We're talking about the Spa,
We're talking about the Spa this weekend.
And essentially what people need to know is that we're doing two
things in horse racing. We're doing what's called
paramutual raise wagering. So you're not betting against
the house, right? You're betting against the other
people at the track or the other people on their phones and so.
The house wants you to. Just wants bets.
They're going to get paid the. House just wants, so they want
volume. Of bets.
Volume of bets is correct, and so the more complicated the bet,
the more they keep and the less complicated the bet.
Or the more difficult to bet, the less they keep is the
general rule. So, for example, at NIRA, the
New York Racing Association, to pick five you have to pick the
winner of five races in a row. It has the lowest takeout rate
of any of their bets. Okay. 15% Okay.
Very hard to pick five winners in a row.
Sure, right? Win play, show bets.
Unless you're with the person who I was with last week who
gets picked fives all the time, Dennis.
No, the guy who I was with last Thursday night.
Dennis. No, I wasn't with Dana, was
Dana? So TK, yeah.
But I didn't want to say his name is.
TK listens, right? Yeah, Win play show is 16%, so
it's a simple bet, right? It's easy to calculate.
So if you bet to win and let's say there's $1000 bet, the track
is going to keep 160 of those dollars.
And. Then they're going to pay out
divisible by your percentage of the win pool if your horse wins.
That number and that's what the 5:00 to 1:00 or the six to one,
seven to one number is. That's your percentage of the
wind pool after the takeout, okay.
So in other words, they're keeping some of that money.
Louis, what are they using that money for?
That's a good question, listener, very good question or
viewer. And so they're keeping that to
pay purses for track upkeep, to pay the track announcer,
whatever you want to look at. There's a lot of there's costs
on it they go with. It now are they charging for
other things? That's what I want to know.
What's that? What's strong to do with the
money? Since they don't do anything
with purses or make their tracks nice.
His name is Mikeandolfo Big Mikeandolfo on Twitter.
So we're talking about NYRA, which does spend money on those
tracks. And then, for example, when you
get into an exacta. Yep, Or a Daily Double.
So an Exacta is the first two horses crossing the line in a
race, in a single race. And then the Daily Double is
picking two winners in a row, right?
That's an 18 1/2% takeout rate. Now we get all the way up to if
you play like a trifecta or superfecta, so the first three
horses or the first four in a race that we're getting to the
24% kind of takeout rate, pick threes and pick fours fall into
this too. So you have to be careful about
some of these these plays. You have to feel really
confident that you're going to hit those races to play those
kinds of plays because otherwise you're probably better off, you
know, just playing you also. Say that like they they're
keenly aware that the. The average person maybe gets
bored doing win place in show bets and So what do they do
instead of going to multi race sequence They or they I think
they're more like trifetch is more than anything else yeah.
Yeah. So of every dime that you put
in, two and a half cents is coming out for takeout.
That's a lot of money. That's a lot of money if you
think about it that way. Yeah, 2.4 cents, right, right.
And so that's something to think about.
We'll talk about the late pick three at night or this weekend,
but it's something to consider about.
And you know, if there's a jackpot wager, for example.
Where you have to be the only person to hit it to get paid,
the takeout rates are going to be considerably higher into the
40 percents, these kinds of things.
My suggestion is usually don't play the those, don't play
those. And they and they make it sexy.
They're like, oh, you know, it's a guaranteed payout and.
Now I want to give naira credit. They don't have any jackpot
wagers, Okay, We were just at Indiana, they don't have any
jackpot wagers. I think that's the way to do
this, Keenland, no jackpot wagers, Okay, right.
That's that's a much better way to do betting than these other
places that we hang out. And so yeah, that's what I would
suggest. So just be aware you could look
these up. It's very difficult to find
them. Friend of the show Rowan Ward,
they were on when we did an Arlington Million show a couple
years ago and they did. They wrote a really good piece
for for Horse Racing Nation. You can find that Rowan's at
Rogue Clown on Twitter and I know they have that posted on
their on their Twitter feed. And so you can go find that
there. But it's a it's worth it to try
to find out where you're playing.
What's good cuz like we're going to Del Mar soon, yeah.
And they have some sneaky high takeout rates, unfortunately,
yes, unfortunately. Not a beautiful place by.
The way. Well, sure.
But they also they're paying people to ship in and they're
paying, look, they got 1112 horse fields, it's a legit
betting product in the same way that Saratoga is, right.
And so it's your your takeout rate goes toward that.
But at the same time, I think people just need to be, you
know, aware of it, which is why when we're at Indiana, what do
we play, We play the big 5. It's under 12% takeout and you
see it in the in the payouts. Even when chalk comes out, it
pays really, really well. And why is that?
There's more money that stays in the pools.
And that's why you get better payouts.
Hey, we actually got a comment. Look at this.
We haven't had one of those in a while because we've been off
Facebook, right? Are we on Facebook?
Did I do this wrong? You know what, I'm not streaming
to the right. Things we're not streaming to
anything. No, we are streaming to it, but
we're streaming to my my real estate sites.
Not into horse racing too much, but yes to cigars.
Nice job Mike. I love that I got the shout out.
So I'm actually, I didn't pay attention and I'm, I'm streaming
to all of my real estate sites right now.
So that's what we're doing. That's fantastic.
So if you were, we're not on Twitter.
But that's OK. I was wondering cuz I went on
Twitter like three times and so there you go.
All right, we can post the show later.
On there you go. So yeah, so usually the play is,
If it's a simpler bet, play it. If it's a very difficult bet as
far as a sequence, play it. So pick fives.
Wait, play, show exact a daily double.
That's usually your best take out, right?
OK, so all those people who are streaming this lab white right
now just got a little bit of a lesson in horse racing betting,
and that's good. So hopefully we got some new
betters. That way as well.
So all right man, good stuff. Let's get into our handicapping
segment right now. We are going to go, like you
said, we're going to Saratoga. We're going to talk about that
late pick three, but we got a really big race that we're going
to cover before it usually won the premier races on the female
side every year. This is race for at Saratoga.
It is the Grade 1 Diana Stakes. It is a mile and an eighth on
the turf for Phillies and marriage 4 year olds and up and.
$600,000 purse and we've got not only a horse with a great name,
but a horse that is legitimately coming into her own as a legit
superstar in this, in this class.
The the, you know, turf distance females.
Two different questions. Chad Brown has four of the five
entries here. Chad Brown's also won six this
race 6 out of the last seven times.
Does that bother you? That's what he does.
He's great on the turf. Man, is it bad for betters.
It's bad for betters from the standpoint of like, if you're
going to just play this race alone, it's probably not great.
Should this be a grade one? From its history, I would say
yes, you know, just from the traditional sense of it, yeah,
but and you got, you got the grade one of grade one Phillies
in this, in this. So you think it's Italians like
the walk away? You single her here?
That's my question. Probably you're not going to
make any money, right? You know, if you're looking for
another course here. I don't know how good white beam
is. I really don't.
This is a Chad Brown, obviously coming out of the gallerette.
We saw her. The gallerette was on on Black
Eyed Susan day grade three. Really, really good.
Oh no, the 20th, that was. Nevermind.
That was a previous day. Really fine horse I read aboard
that day. I read.
Obviously riding in Italian here it tells you a little bit but
you get Flavian Pride. He and Chad Brown, a miserable
27% together. Came over from overseas, what
her first four races. Ran second by a neck in her
first race in North America at Aqueduct in in more of a listed
stakes setting. Comes up to the graded company
in a mile on the 16th. Runs really, really well at the
Gallerette and so if she can, if she can repeat that form, she'll
be in good shape. The difference here is that you
have an Italian who's going to want to be out front, stay out
front, that's her style. You also have market
segmentation that wants to do that.
You get Jose Ortiz here, who rode the horse last time to a
win. Integrate one at Belmont, now
going a mile and a quarter, we ain't going a mile and 1/4 here,
we're going a mile and an eighth.
So it's a little bit shorter. But frankly, to me, that's more
about the track layout than it is anything else.
If they run this exact same course at Belmont, it's a mile
and an 8 air mile and a quarter, excuse me.
So really it's just about doing that.
So if you wanted to beat in Italian, my suggestion is you go
to the three market segmentation.
Jose Ortiz Jedbra. And more than likely though, if
you think that an Italian's gonna.
She's she's what, 2:00 to 5:00 in the morning?
Line 2 to 5. And she's probably going to be
shorter odds than that. If I had a guess, I.
Think 2 to five's about right. Okay.
I actually think David Ayer are going to nail that.
One, this might be a race that you don't even play at all and
just sit back and enjoy an amazing horse, you know?
She's never missed the board. If you're a big show bet guy,
that might this might be the race.
You okay? Yeah, go heavy on the show bet.
Yeah, because it's not going to pay much different than the win
bet it is so. It's just different ways to kind
of think about this race and and.
Then Fluffy Socks was really good here over a mile and the
just half turf mile over a Derby weekend, but she is not in the
same classes as these sources. No, okay.
So we're gonna move on then to the next race that we're gonna
talk about, which is Race 9 this begins that late, pick three
that we were just talking about. We're going to do Grade 3 Kelso,
Grade 3 Sanford and then we'll do a quick pick on the main
special way that they that they end so that you have a good.
By the way, if you are listed in that late interested, excuse me
in that late sequence there, starting Race 7 to pick five or
maybe the Grand Slam unfortunately has a high take
out rate too. It's very fun bet playlist.
The one and the four Easy Breeze Easy and Race 7 both look like
very formidable favorites, frankly.
And then you get into this New York bread made the special way
and they are. Really emphasizing the New York
bread program at Saratoga this year.
You're going to see that more and more.
It's good for betters, bad for knowing the horses, but it's
good for betters because I think it creates more often and we see
this in Indiana a lot more long shots win those races.
So this is where you would spread if you were looking at
Race 8 here, I would spread a little bit.
So race 9. So if you want to make this a
pick, 4 is what. You're trying to say if you want
to make it a pick 5. Yeah, pick five.
Gotcha. Now I'm playing the pick 3.
Because I I have a A I'm pushing, I'm going to press hard
on the pick three rather than play the pick.
Four. But you think that there's
probably some you can go small, you can go short.
On I think you can go really short on the pick 3.
Yeah, so Grade 1 Diana stakes, I'm sorry, the Grade 3 Kelso is
1 mile on the turf for four year olds and up $175,000 purse.
We're going to see some names here that we like, like we like
Annapolis and Annapolis is going to be a heavy favorite here.
I agree. Not the only horse here that can
win because we also see a horse with cost of creed.
We love cost of Creed. Is it really those two and
everyone else? To me it is.
I do think if you wanted to look somewhere else, big Everest is a
really interesting horse. 2 for two this year is one for
straight, six of seven. That's an incredible number.
Has one at Churchill, at Saratoga before the spa, the
spa. And Churchill could not be,
other than age, much more different, right?
No, yeah. I mean, that's.
I mean, we were talking. About they have the 19th century
in common. That's about.
It right. It's basically like Keeneland
and all the Yankee, Saratoga and Delmar are like in this like.
Yeah, that boutique track. Yeah, but the racing at Saratoga
is the most serious of the three, right?
Oh yeah, because we know Keeneland doesn't really care
about racing. Yeah, but they still, at the
beginning of their meets, is always loaded.
It's loaded. Because you're heading into the
breeder scope. Or a month before the Derby.
Oh, yeah, right, right. Delmar has the Pacific Classic,
which is the most important race in California for thoroughbreds.
Sure, Right. OK.
And the Bing Crosby and, yeah, other good race, yeah.
But big efforts is coming out of these lower level races.
Class. It is important, but the time
matters too. It's a fast horse, but running a
mile on 16th at $1.40 the splits all make sense. 23 and 4723 and
4723 and 4723 and 46 and races that this horse won.
And so interested here because Joel Rosario has an incredible
record on this horse. And you know, they've been
running it at that at that level.
Interesting to see Crystal Clamal move this horse into this
level. So that's interesting.
Philo di Ariano's, your Brazilian horse here for Jose
Ortiz was in the poker last time, lost by a neck at a mile,
just ran out of gas. So that actually makes me turned
off by the 6th year as we go a mile here at Saratoga because I
think there's going to be a little bit of pace in here.
So yeah, Costa Creed's the interesting wild card here ran
in. The Arabian Peninsula 2 backing
in Saudi Arabia at Abdullaziz in a in the turf Sprint finishing
second by head with Louise size comes back to Belmont.
First time stateside runs in the Japer loses to caravel.
I'm in the business of not holding that against horses of
losing to caravel. And so I it's interesting to
watch a horse go from six prolongs to two turns here.
But Belmont is is good at that at 17% good second off the
layoff here. And this horse by the way has
won three times at the distance and it's hit the board 9 times
at 15 runs at the distance including two wins in Saratoga
has won the four-star day before, so at at a mile.
So this horse is capable of winning this race.
Interested to see it. I would play the two and the
8:00 here and move. On so you know talking about
Class A little bit here Louie, we're talking about when we talk
about cost of creed, multiple time Grade 1 winner, I mean and
this is you're dropping down to a Grade 3 field.
And that's why Casa Creed and the Annapolis, Annapolis are
going to be, you know, heavy, heavy favorites.
And and I actually might even like Casa Creed a little bit
more here than then I like. And I think, what are you going
to get a better price on anything Casa Creed?
Yeah, I agree. Casa Creed.
You might get 3:00 to 1:00. Yeah, which would be awesome.
And then again, with those odds going back to what you were
talking about with takeout rates, just to kind of educate
our betters a little bit, especially since we got some new
people watching for the first time.
When you see the odds on the board, those are the odds for
that horse to win those. They're only talking about the
wind pool. Yep.
And it doesn't necessarily mean that's what's being bet in the
in those pick three, pick four pools.
Yep. So.
So look at what's called will pays.
Will pays. That's right.
Literally, it will pay what and and those are the the things to
look at if your horse does win. So race 10, we're going to move
on to the next race, which is the Sanford Stakes.
This is a. Another grade 3/6 for lumps on
the dirt for two year olds. We're going to see all these two
year olds start to come out of the woodwork.
We're going to start to see the the field for the Breeders Cup.
Juvenile takes stakes. Really the whole first day of
the Breeders Cup is all about the juveniles, the two year old
horses and then for that you know typically we start to see
the Triple Crown horses a little bit later, but we had Forte
already running quite a bit by that.
At this point, he ran in this race.
Yeah, so. This is this is sometimes could
be a a lossless. Race, yeah.
Brooks made it a Belmont lossless race, yeah.
So who is the The Shining and 1st of?
How do you even look at these two year old stakes races?
You know, how do you have? Good question.
So the Schuylerville was today and a maiden one sometimes.
Sometimes it's not as easy as you would think.
I really look for. So one of my favorite angles and
Mike's tired of hearing this after four years, five years
hanging out. I love a horse coming out of a
maiden win. Now, the problem with two year
old races is so many of them are coming out of maiden wins,
right? And so got that confidence of
running for the first time and then coming back a second time
out, really understanding the lay of the land.
You're going to walk in a circle for a while, then we're going to
put a saddle on you, and then someone's going to jump on your
back. And then you're going to go to a
starting gate and then you're going to take off all those
things that go with getting a horse to the starting gate and
actually running. And so in this case, it's a
little more obvious because there's a horse in here who ran
2245. 57 and 103 in the sand at Belmont.
Wow. And is now coming to Saratoga,
OK. So and who's this horse?
This is Gold Sweep the 9:00. And he's trained by.
Steve, as Muslims, there you go. Written by Jose Ortiz, who wrote
him last time at Belmont, came out of the main special weight
at the highest level at 5 for logs at Churchill Downs in May.
One in the Tremont illicit stakes here.
Others from that race are in here including yo-yo Candy who
finished a solid 10 and one quarters length behind Wow.
This horse is absolutely just an just a menace.
So if you look at this though comes out of that made special
way didn't win so it was a maiden.
When it runs in the Tremont you can't look at those figures and
not see a very very fast horse. Now you could say that about a
lot of horses here. It's going to rain today and
tomorrow at Saratoga, but I think it's going to dry out for
Saturday if it doesn't market streets.
An interesting horse on the outside for Tyler.
One in the slop at Ellis Park at first asking.
Dwayne Lucas still getting done? Might be interesting.
You do get yo-yo Candy, who finished a ways back in the
Tremont after winning at Parks. I think that's a horse that you
can, you can say is probably not going to win here.
I don't know. Is Triple Tree interesting here
because it does finish at 59. Well, I think another thing
that. Would buy but on the synthetic
so it's less interesting to me. So to me it really does come
down to. Gold Sweep be the best, but
you're also really big on the trainers that can place two
year. Olds, I agree with that too.
So and and again. As Must Adhere is more about
having sprinters. The guy is great at six
furlongs. You're right.
I mean, this is what he does the best.
I don't think it's. Especially with two year olds,
at this distance, he does a good job.
She's great at six for a long. Yeah, he's also great in grade
threes. And you know who else?
Who? What other trainers?
Do you really look at it? How they place the two year
olds? Norm Cassie, I think it's a
rising 2 year old star. For a long time I looked at Dale
Romans. I can't tell with Dale if it's
more who's sending him horses now or if he's lost a bit of his
edge on that. I don't know that it matters
right now. I don't trust him the way that I
used to and I think of Norm Cassie as the replacement for
Dale Romans. And then the final race that you
so your pick here is the 9. The 9:00 and I would single.
And single the 9, pretty comfortable with that And that
of course is trained by Steve, OK.
And then I'm going to play that sound as much as possible
because Zach doesn't do it enough.
If at all. Race 11 is going to, excuse me,
it's going to complete the main specialty here.
And by the way, you can also, if you want to play the Daily Devil
with the 10th race in the 11th race, you can do that as well.
There's a horse in this race, even though it's a main special
weight that you like a lot, and this is going to be $136,500 for
mains 3 year olds and up on this in this race.
Who did you like in this one? It's a little misleading, by the
way, so I put it out on Twitter the other day.
Is it surprising that they're running stakes for 125,000 and
made special weights for 136? Yeah, right.
Well, it's not what they're doing.
They're adding 24 grand from the New York.
You have to be a New York bread to get 136.
So if the two beer run for example who's 2:00 to 1:00 here
and I think is single bowl wins the race they get their part of
$105,000 or 110 I guess is the number there still a fine purse
so that Wesley Ward will be fine if that horse comes in second
off the layoff here and well yeah race 11 and I just I
totally screwed that up yeah yeah and so.
Comes in here, beer run out of a run at Belmont at six for a long
set. Horses in the lead at 5 1/2 and
loses. We're going 5 1/2 here.
I think the distance is preferable.
Breaks well out of the gate. I think it'll be just fine here
in this company. If you're looking to beat the
two, I would look at Flattop Box.
The four ran well last time behind beer run, but ran well.
Under Jose Ortiz gets Jose Ortiz again here and then otherwise if
you look at someone else that you're probably doing something
like city fever for Michael Trombetta, first time starter.
He's not great with first time starters, but that's where you
would have to be looking metallurgic.
Maybe for Mike Maker, who's like an 11 percent first time
starter, that's pretty good. Bay be Long is is for Belmont,
here for Junior Alvarado. I love the two of them.
They're better on Long Island than they're at Saratoga.
For me, that's that's how it works out.
So if the 13 drows in, that'll be an interesting one, cuz
that's a horse that they tried in August.
It didn't work out. Chad Brown gave the horse some
time off. When he's over six months off,
his horses win at 30%. We talked about people placing
horses. Chad Brown's one of those guys,
30% off the layoff, 26% with first Lasik and then 27% the
first time he has the horse. So if you got a horse, just
let's explain this. This might be a little bit of
more of a 101. You got a horse like that, he's.
Obviously good enough to be in this field, got Flavin Pratt
Chad Brown. Why is he and also eligible and
not in the field? A lot of that just has to do
with the draw. And so if enough horses put
their names in, and in this case we had 12 total entries, we have
a coupled entry which means that the same ownership owns two
horses in the same race. They cannot get double the purse
money and so they they have those a couple together and so I
to me it's more just. Bad luck of being in the 13
rather than being in, let's say the seven something like.
That and then we have a horse in the 14.
If now the 13 sucks for for a spread.
I don't love that on the outside, but I do think the
horse is fast. Enough and the 14 if the if if
the rain does. Washes off.
And they go to Off the Turf. The 14 would be a play with
Ludwig on the main track as well, probably because they'll
have a lot of scratches. You also have a lot of horses in
this race, Louis, and this is the most we've ever talked about
being special week because this was supposed to be a quick pick.
First time not my fault. I know it's my fault.
I'm asking good questions. So first time Lasix, how does
that play into your handicapping?
I do. I do take Lasix into
handicapping usually, however, not first time, usually as
running without it for the first time.
So many trainers. Now, because of the new rules
and the stakes rules don't run their two year.
They can't run their two year olds with Lasix, excuse me.
And then when they get to the three-year old year, if they
know they want them to be a stake source, they won't ever
have them run with Lasix. Knowing that they have to.
For example, if people follow on the Kentucky Derby trail, if you
run with Lasix, you do not get the points right for the
Kentucky Derby because you cannot run with Lasix at the
Kentucky Derby. So it makes enough of a
difference to the folks who run the Kentucky Derby that they're
not allowed to run with it. It's a medication, by the way.
It's a diuretic. It helps horses to to urinate.
And I've learned over the weekend from Dan that instead of
Lasix in Europe, they just don't give horses water for 24 hours.
They dehydrate the horse. Lay 6 seems way better.
Yeah, I would agree. Yeah.
All right. Well, that's that's so the lay
pick three here. If you want to play it, you can
play it really, really short. Starting Race 9.
Race 9, the two and the 8. Yep, Single the nine and race
nine. Single the two.
And then race 10. And so you're gonna, since it's
so short, you're gonna play that a couple times, so.
I'm gonna play it for 10 bucks. Yeah.
So the minimum at at Niro, which I really like, by the way, is a
dollar OK? That's a cool thing to do with
pick three is I think it's a great way.
To up the pools, get the payouts to be better.
I'm going to play for 10 bucks, cost you $20 to play.
So I'll have a $20 play this weekend at Saratoga and that's
probably what I'll. Do.
OK, great. Yeah.
And it'll pay. I'm trying to hit about 100 and
between 100 and 2000 and $70. Well, that's all we got today.
Thanks for tuning in. This has been another edition of
the Horse Racing Happy Hour. Ooh, that was pretty good.
I like it. Man on the back porch, Old man
on the back porch. Old man on the back porch and
then old man.
