Florida Derby Preview | Anthony Pascale

It's good and it's the horse racing happy hour.

Lou, your beau hanging out with you on a Thursday edition of the

program. We welcome in Anthony Pascal

from down there at Gulfstream Park, but also of course, our

FanDuel go to, if you will, on this program and on ESPN 680.

Of course. Anthony by man, it's been way

too long. How are you?

It has been, I've been enjoying my time here in South Florida,

which is about to come to an end.

Only a couple days remaining of the championship meet here.

And I'll tell you what, we're going to go out with a bang

because this Florida Derby card on Saturday I think is

absolutely fantastic. You know, sometimes by the end

of the meet you get a lot of trainers who are pointing their

horses towards Churchill and Keeneland.

And the Florida Derby cards don't always come to fruition.

That's why they often say the Fountain of Youth card is better

than the Florida Derby card. But this year I can make the

case I actually like the Florida Derby card better this year.

Yeah. No, I think you're totally on

with that. And certainly, I mean, every

year we get this kind of, you know, there are a couple days

that aren't Breeders' Cup and aren't, say, Derby Day, for

example, Anthony, that I think of as the cards that I know I'm

going to be paying attention to. Florida Derby's always on that

list. I always go to like a Belmont

day where there's going to be 6 or 8, you know, grade ones in a

row, that kind of thing. But no, Florida Derby Day is

always on the list for me. Yeah.

And sometimes even though you have all those grade ones, you

get really short fields and big and short prices and, and there

are a couple horses that are going to be short prices on

Saturday in our stakes races in the All Stakes Pick 5.

But that doesn't mean they're not beatable.

Right. No, I think you're totally right

about that. You and I are going to go

through six different races here, a pair of pick threes,

races 7-8 and nine and then 1213 and 14 if you want to figure out

the rest of the pick six. Good luck to you there, wherever

you might be betting from. But Anthony, what is the what

has been the overriding theme of this championship meet there at

Gulfstream? I was kind of caught off guard,

but not surprised that for example, a lot of the Gulfstream

based runners ran really well, for example on turf races on

Pegasus Day, that kind of thing. We've seen some of those local

horses perform really well. Has anything else stood out to

you? On the main track, I feel like

the inside part of the main track has not been good.

So if you look back at this meet, I, I want to say

Commandment was one of the only horses this whole meet that ran

well coming up the inside, the outside paths on the main track

have been where you want to be. Now you look at that two ways.

You look at horses who ran up on the inside who didn't run well,

I think of incredible. It's not the best example

because I think there was more at play.

He just really didn't just didn't want to run that day.

I don't know if it was just the inside, but hey, he came back

and ran big class president was a horse who did not who ran on

the inside part of this track at Gulfstream and then went over to

Oakland one and one their Derby prep.

So if you're on the outside part of the track and this is, you

know, on Saturday, when you find horses that ran well on the

outside part of the track, they were with the track.

So maybe that's giving you reason to maybe go with someone

else and fade horses that are going to take money.

Yeah, we'll talk several dirt races, of course, but one of my

favorite things, and I know we always talk about the Florida

Derby, Anthony, is the turf racing on Florida Derby day

because there's just so much of it.

There's sprints, there's longer distance races, there's very,

very long distance races as well.

We'll get into some of those as we go as well.

But Anthony Pascal with us from FanDuel, Go find him on socials

at FanDuel Anthony as well. But the Ghost Zapper is the

Grade 3 that kicks off what we'll be talking about, at least

on this program race. 7A mile and a 16th on the dirt here.

This is for four and up and here and I feel like every year we

get a couple of horses that are right on the cusp or Gulfstream

Park, like Legends. The Ghost Zapper for sure here

we get one of those horses. We get the Wood Memorial. 2nd

place runner from last year and Grande already made his seasonal

debut. Do you like him going the two

turns here? Yeah, I, I don't think the two

turns is an issue at all being by curling and, and he showed

that he could go two turns last year here at Gulfstream Park.

This was actually going to be my sneaky Derby play last year.

I was really disappointed when when he got hurt right before

the Derby and they had to scratch him because he, I, I

thought going into the Derby he ran a good second in the Wood

Memorial. You mentioned he was second to

Rodriguez. I was at at Aqueduct that day

and that track was favoring speed big time.

Grande was against the track, but he came back and ran huge,

huge in that race on February the 14th.

And the only thing I fear is he ran a little too big.

Sometimes off really long layoffs, horses run that run

big. They kind of regress in their

next start. We're going to find out how good

Grande is. That was a big race that he ran

last time. I have a feeling that he just

might be too good for these. And I can tell you this, all

these horses are glad that Knightsbridge isn't isn't going

to try this this race. I mean, I know Knightsbridge

probably doesn't want two turns, but yeah, Grande certainly is

the horse to beat. There are a couple of other

interesting horses in there. Capital idea for Bill Mott

running second off the layoffs. If somehow they they set it up

early and they go quick capital ideas a horse who could be

coming late. He he's not without a shot.

And how about the Florida bred Lightning Tones who seems to run

some big races over this race track and sometimes at good

prices. He seems to run well off layoffs

and he has in the past at least. And he might be a horse that I'd

throw in the exactas as well. Yeah, lightning tones, that

Morelos Castro combination that we've seen over 50 Times Now.

The last, you know, about 18 months there at Gulfstream Park,

they had an incredible 18%. I'm interested in Steel Sunshine

here coming out of a couple of graded Snakes to see if he can

actually take a legitimate step forward.

We saw him really good in a handicap earlier in November,

but man, Cadet Core on the outside is just one of those

horses I can never figure out. He's up the track of the

Monmouth Cup. Gives it a go in Louisiana

coming off the Lasix here. Any chance Javier Castellano

pilots him into the money? The one thing I don't like, and

we don't run a lot of races at a mile and a 16th here at

Gulfstream, but I can tell you this, the outside posts aren't

that great and Cadet Core is really going to have to work out

a trip from the outside. He was beaten last time out by

Excel Rise. We saw Excel Rise run what I

thought was a pretty poor race at Fairgrounds last weekend.

So because of that outside post, and I know he's going to take

money because he has run some fast races, that was going to be

a horse that I was going to try to fade but wouldn't be a total

shock. And Javier has been riding

really well. Yeah, now he knows the track for

sure down there in Ghost St. Park.

His name is Anthony. Pascal joins us from FanDuel

here on the Horse Racing Happy hour.

By the way, we're presented by Stockton Mortgage.

If you live east of the Rockies, it's a decent chance that

Stockton Mortgage offer services in your state, so go check them

out at stocktonmortgage.com. The Grade 3 Orchid awaits us in

race 8 starts a $1.00 pick 3 here.

Mile and 1/2 on the turf. So the Philly and mare side of

things. Anthony will get into the Pan

American later on the Colts and and horses side of things over

there. Who'd you land on in this one?

I thought it was. It was interesting that Bayes is

back in here for Miguel Clement. I think this makes sense as a

landing spot for her. Yeah, she's certainly the most

accomplished in the field. She is a Grade 2 winner.

She won the Flower Bowl, or was it the.

Yeah, the Flower Bowl last year. The problem I have with horses

like this, this is a starting point for them.

So in races like this where you know you're going to have a

horse that's that's taking a lot of money, you know, obviously

Miguel Clement wants to win a bulk of his races itself.

Saratoga, while he would love to win this race on Saturday, you

know, how ready is Balaza to to run a big race?

I for me the sentimental play is just basking because she was

very good to me on Fountain of Youth Day.

I hit the all, I hit the all button in that race in the very

one and she was the biggest price and she actually came

through for me. But I will say, you know,

besides that she had only run on turf once before.

And I totally put a line through that other turf race because it

led to a layoff. And I think last time she proved

that that she likes the grass. And sometimes when horses, when

you try something different with them and they take to it, you

want to stick with them. And I don't think she's going to

be that short of a price. So just basking.

I'm not concerned about the distance being by arrogate.

I think the extra 8th of a mile will be just fine for her.

And just basking for me from a nice inside post.

Should be able to save ground and hopefully they go quick

enough up front and they'll set it up for her again.

You mentioned the distance, I mean, she was just fine in the

Alabama last year, wasn't she? Right behind power squeezing

candied and all that group. And so, yeah, no, obviously the

distance actually that was 2024. But that distance does not seem

to be an issue for her. Obviously Ian Wilkes moving her

in over, excuse me, to the turf side of things.

We did see the Will Walden trainee in Speed Shopper win it

a mile and 1/2 at Gulfstream Park.

Do you, how much do you value that kind of experience, do you

think? Absolutely.

I, I, I mean, and I like that he gave her a little time in

between races. So she, she, you know, just ran

on January the 24th. So here we are with a couple

months off and, and, and you know, she's a fresh horse now

and I feel like she's proven that she can run over this turf

course. She would be the other one for

me. Yeah, now she's an interesting

one in there for sure. The orchid, of course, a mile

and 1/2 on the turf course. We move back to the dirt and we

will see the three-year old fillies in this one.

It's called the Gulfstream Park Oaks.

It's at that mile and a 16th distance, but we only have 7

runners. So I imagine not too upsetting

for those who will break from the five ahead.

The six. And I need to ask you that,

Anthony, as we are trying to determine who will be in the

starting gate for the Kentucky Oaks that first Friday in May up

here in Louisville. Is it prom queen and she'd be

smoother? Is there another horse we need

to look at in here? No, I think you have to pay

attention to just singing for Kent Sweeze.

This is a horse who who won a maiden special at Churchill over

in the fall. She ran in the Goldenrod, came

on late to finish third, and then Kent Sweeze brought her

back in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra.

I was there that day and I felt like that track was very speed

favorite. This was not a track that that

was for just singing. So she was also off a layoff in

that race. She's tighter, she's fitter.

Just singing is going to, I think, run a big race on

Saturday. You get the blinkers on.

I know Kent thinks very highly of this Philly.

I've talked to him about her and and you get Johnny Velasquez.

And I don't know that there are many more jockeys that you would

want, you know, want on your horses right now than Johnny B

because he's riding so well. Oh man, we were at Turfway on

Saturday. He couldn't miss.

I mean, he won 33 stakes in a row just.

Absolutely. Feeling it that day for sure, I

wanted to ask you about She Be Smooth and prom queen between

the two of them. Would you tend to lean on the

class of Devona Dale winner She Be Smooth or just the talent of

the Cox trainee and prom queen? I mean, she be smooth beat prom

queen. So I mean, you know, you have

that going for she be smooth. And I was actually at Todd

Pletcher's barn Wednesday and. There he goes.

All right, we'll get Anthony back in here in just a second.

Of course, talking about the Gulfstream Park Oaks with him.

He's down there at Gulfstream Park as part of their publicity

coverage. Oh, no.

Well, I can hear you, Anthony. Keep going though as we try to

figure out your your camera here.

Prop Quid and she'd be smooth. You were pointing out that she'd

be smooth. In fact, has one head to head

for sure. I lost Anthony there.

We'll get back with him as soon as we possibly can.

But yeah, prop quid coming out of a mile and a 16th maiden win

there at Gulfstream Park. Brad Cox trainee Javier

Castellano did have them out that day and she's one of those.

Only ever run on Lasix twice. He's going to have to drop the

Lasix. He's going up against big time

class in winners here, but seven to five on she'd be smooth. 9:00

to 5:00 on prom queen. An interesting juxtaposition of

those two. But yes, Anthony Pascal back

with us. Sorry.

Between those two, no, you're totally fine.

I I just think more question marks with Prom Queen than there

are with She'd be smooth. Yeah.

And when I talked to Pletcher, I asked him, I said did she

surprise you a little bit? Because for a for a maiden

winner for for Todd to go off 56 to 1:00 and then in the Devona

Dale go off 6 to 1 again. I said did she surprise you?

Did you? Did she did you not maybe think

she was as good as she's showing you right now?

And he said, well, listen, in her works she wasn't showing us

that much. But now that we've realized

she's kind of a come from behind horse, they don't always work

that great in the mornings. They don't show that big time

early speed. So she be smooth coming from

last in that race in the Devona Dale.

And that was a really good effort.

She was on the inside part of the track for a lot of that

race. I don't know how good she is.

We're going to find out on Saturday.

But but I I for me, it's her over prom queen.

But I'm definitely using just singing.

Interesting too. And I imagine, you know,

Pletcher may not have mentioned this to you, but she's a

daughter of Lexingtonia. That's the Spikes town line, we

think one turn with those kinds of horses.

So for her to easily. She likes the mile though,

right? She clearly likes the mile, so

that didn't bother her at all. I'd like to think a 16th of a

mile's not going to affect her. That much I'm with you, I'm with

you. Yeah, yeah.

All right. Well, let's move on to the late

pick three with Anthony Pascal down there at Gulfstream Park.

Of course, from FanDuel TV. You'll see all of their coverage

this weekend. I imagine you've got teams both

in Hot Springs and in Hallandale Beach.

Yeah. Absolutely, Yeah.

We think we've got a crew of 5 or 6 here.

And, and then same thing out at Oaklawn.

These are, these are the two I think, you know, pivotal Derby

preps. I mean, the Bluegrass is going

to be a pivotal Derby prep because we're going to have

Paladin who's one of the favorites running there.

But I don't think there's a deeper Derby prep that we've

seen yet. And I, I'm not sure we'll see

if, if it turns out to be the deepest, but the Florida Derby,

I think is, is by far the, the deepest we've seen yet.

Also a terrific predictor of high level success in the

Kentucky Derby. Of course, major and soccer

guarantee both alums or recent winners of the Kentucky Derby as

well, but the late pick 3 will start with the Sand Springs Mile

and the 16th on the turf here for Phillies and Mares 4.

And up on this side, there's a field of 11, Anthony.

And I'll tell you what, of all the races we've talked about,

this is the one where I think you could really make a case for

about a half dozen in here. Yeah, this was a really tough

race over this turf course. I feel like you don't want to be

too far back. That's why I went with Lahina.

Lahina for for Team B and Cone Boy.

If you want to see a horse win a race easily, go back to watch

that race on February the 7th here at Gulfstream.

It was against Florida bred company, but you will not see a

horse win a race much easier than she did in there.

She will try the Florida Oaks last time out at Tampa different

turf course. She comes back to Gulfstream

where she's proven over homecourt advantage.

I think she might have another step forward and she ran a big

number in that race 2 back. So I like her on Saturday.

There you go, looking at that one there.

Let's move on. Late double now.

Race 13 is the Pan American, a mile and 1/2 on the turf here, a

grade 3. When I think of Florida Derby

Day, Anthony, this is part of what I think about is this race.

You know, in the same way that I think about the United Nations

ahead of the Haskell during the summer, for example, up at

Monmouth Park, these sorts of longer races, $225,000 on the

line in this one. I'm fascinated by Brother Kenny

on the turf here from D'Angelo. But First off, who do you have

on top here? Well, Farbridge is obviously the

most accomplished in the field and he's certainly the horse to

beat. He won this race last year, got

up just in the nick of time after he had some trouble early

on in the race. But he's a six year old now.

Draws the outside posts, hasn't run since September.

For me, these are the kind of horses I try to beat.

I mean, you know what I mean, at a really short price.

I, I have a ton of respect for Farbridge.

I just don't know if Saturday is the day where I where I really

want him. And I think that and, and when

Farbridge won this race last year, I believe he had to start

going into this. So did he.

Let's see. No, he.

Came out of the Breeders Cup for that one.

But this is the. Breeders' Cup layoff.

He was in that Turf Classic with Rebels romance before he went

and ran second in the Breeders Cup.

Yeah. So the horse that I, I, I moved

to was Dashman for Brian Lynch. Brian Lynch has won more stakes

races on the turf this meet than any other trainer.

So leave him out, you know, to your own peril.

Dashman ran off a really long layoff last time out and I

actually thought he ran quite good.

It was not an easy field. It was a tough allowance race.

And I think second off the layoff, he has some back races.

He he was meant to be a good horse and I think Dashman's

going to outrun his odds. You get Joe El Rosario, and I

think he's going to run big. Do you see these workout times

for Dash? Man?

You're my man. Land A574 around the Delbys

like. Just remember though that that

that Palm Meadows turf course gets super, super hard and, and

we see fast times over that Palm Meadows turf course all the

time. But but the horse has obviously

been working well. I think the horse needed that

last race. Second off the layoff use for

me. And you know, the other horse in

there is corruption from the rail, but he's another one

coming in off the layoff. He has early speed.

We'll see if anybody decides to go with him.

I just thought, you know, I was trying to be sneaky in here and,

and, and try to get a price because obviously corruption and

and Farbridge are going to take, you know, most of the most of

the money. Yeah, what do you make of

corruption on the inside? Serious shot here.

Yeah, absolutely. The problem The thing is that

the trip that he gets, I mean, if they let him walk on the on

the lead all by himself, they could be over and and that's how

he easily beats Farbridge and turns the tables on him last

like after he beat him last year.

But we'll see. I mean Johnny BS going to have

to send him out there. I didn't see a ton of early

speed in the race. You mentioned brother Kenny.

I mean, I don't know what he's going to do on the grass, but

corruption has a big advantage because of that early speed.

All right, move on to the closer on the card, of course, the

great one Florida Derby 1,000,000 bucks on the line

here. Start line is the finish line

for this one Milan and 8th on the dirt at Gulfstream Park.

A bunch of horses in here whose names we've heard for sure.

We've seen their performances. Anthony, I want to ask you

first, though, about the Tampa Bay Derby winner in the Puma.

There's a horse that we saw on the 7th of March.

He's going to come back in 20 days to run this race, or 21 I

guess in this case. I love this move because

otherwise you're looking at either going up to Lexington and

who knows who's going to be there or whatever else.

I like this. Three weeks.

Then give yourself 5 weeks to the Kentucky Derby.

Do you agree? I think, I really think Gustavo

Delgado's doing right by the horse here.

Yeah. And the other big thing is he's

running out of his stall. He's stabled right here at

Gulfstream. So to not have to ship to run in

the prep, I mean, he was going to have to ship to Kentucky

eventually anyway. But I think running right out of

his stall and like you said, getting the extra week, I'd

rather have the extra week going into the Derby than the extra

week coming out of the Tampa Bay Derby.

So I like the move. I don't like I, I cashed on the

Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby. I will not be playing him

tomorrow. And here here's the reason.

I think he ran a big race 3 weeks ago and I just don't know

if he's going to fire his best shot again three weeks later.

And I also don't think that they want him to because remember,

the goal is the first Saturday in May, they got their Derby

points. He's already earned enough

points. He drew the outside.

I think he's going to, I think he's going to run credibly

enough, but I do not think, although it's $1,000,000 race

and they'd love to win it, I just don't think Saturday is the

goal for a horse like this. And so I will have no problem

considering him in the Derby, but I'm not going to bet him on

Saturday. Puma very likely start of the

Kentucky Derby given the number of points being over 50 at this

point. Can certainly lock up a spot

with a top three type finish in the Florida Derby itself.

Obviously nearly commandment. We're going to get Chief Wallaby

in here as well. Chief Wallaby isn't just the

buzz. Horsey is Brian Nadeau's

favorite on the morning line for this one.

Do you agree with that? Yeah, I put up a poll on my, on

my Twitter page asking people who, who was going to win the

Florida Derby. And, and Chief Wallaby was, he

was, he was Chief Wallaby was the clear winner so far at least

never like, you know, like 600 and something votes.

I, I feel like people are looking at Chief Wallaby that

there's a lot more in the tank that you know, it was only a

second lifetime start. He was a good second in the, in

the fountain of Youth and that there's more there.

We'll see. I'm not 100% convinced that the

farther distances are better for Chief Wallaby.

That's something he's going to have to prove to me.

But he's certainly a very talented horse for me.

Nearly has proven himself around 2 turns over this racetrack.

He won the the Holy Bowl quite easily.

The race before that he had won very nicely, earned a big

number. I'm a big third graph guy,

earned a He's earned the fastest third graph figure of any horse

in this race. And he still needs Derby points,

so he's going to be ready to run on Saturday.

Pletcher knows that he needs those points.

So I think Nearly on Saturday is the worst for me.

Nearly coming in on a three race win streak.

All of those by at least 5 lengths and all of them at

Gulfstream Park. As Anthony mentioned, what do

you make of commandment comes in out of that win against Chief

Wallaby in the stretch there in the Fountain of Youth.

What do you make of his chances tomorrow or Saturday?

I mean, obviously he's got a big shot if he takes a step forward.

He's he's, he's a likely winner of the race.

The question is, does he take a step forward?

I like that after, if you watch the, the replay of that race

last time out, they made it a point to get him to gallop out

and keep going. Like, listen, buddy, there's

more work here. Next time we got to go farther.

And I think they wanted a good test to see how far Commandment

really wants to go because it's a question.

The distance is a question mark for him too.

You know, the farther distances, I should say, I don't think

tomorrow's Saturday's distance is, is really that huge of a, of

a question. But yeah, Commandment ran a a, a

huge race. I don't know if I consider him

at the top of the heap in terms of this three-year old crop.

And if you ask me for a good reason as to why I I don't think

that I don't know that I can give you one, but I often feel

like these things are are feels sometimes.

And we watch the horses and we watch how they compete.

We watch how they how they run against each other.

I I just think that there, you know, I, I, I think there's

probably more in chief Wallaby's tank.

And I also think for sure nearly is a horse who, you know, listen

in the Holy Bowl nearly ran with a very fast pace early and he

kept going. Now, they didn't come home that

quick, but he kept going. I like the tenacity that he

showed in that race, the fact that he could go quick early and

still finish late. So that's why I'm on nearly.

All right. Let's go through some of the

other horses in here that I imagine you have gotten to see

at some point. But Wayne's Law, for example,

finished behind Renegade and the Sam F Davis will try the Florida

Derby here for Amador Sanchez. What do you make of his chances

here? Yeah.

Just remember that the Being Cone horse, Redland Rebels is

going to Arkansas, so he will not be in the Florida Derby.

And I don't know, Wayne's Law is the only other horse other than

the top four that I could somewhat make a case for.

Not really in the wind position, but maybe if you're trying to

get a price in your trifectas superfectas.

That would probably be the only other horse that I would be

interested in here. Interesting.

OK, all right. A son of tis the law.

This is a a royal breeding kind of race.

Anthony really is in this spot. So thanks for a really fun one

there on Saturday. What who's the I always ask my

guests on the horse racing happier Anthony Pascal with us

from FanDuel. Who is the horse I have to beat

in the late sequence to make the most money in your mind?

Far Bridge. Far Bridge.

By far. OK, got it.

All right. OK, he's going to take a time to

come. Up with that.

No, because I think he's he's one of the shorter prices of the

day. I feel like corruption will take

money on the inside. But I think far Bridge, I mean,

if you look at his resume, he's just he's he's he's class wise

above everybody else. Well, there you go.

We'll go vote in the the poll there at FanDuel Anthony on the

social. I didn't.

Say it'd be my single, though I didn't say he'd be my single.

Though Anthony FanDuel, Anthony there, of course.

And so what's the what's the next?

What's the next phase for you? Obviously championship meet

coming to a close. I'm going to be spending a bunch

of time at Keeneland. What's next for Anthony?

You'll see me at Keeneland. Yeah, we're getting ready to to

gear up for the opening weekend, that Friday and Saturday, the

Bluegrass Stakes. That Saturday is always an

awesome day, but I will be there for the entire meet and then on

to the Derby. All right, I will pop by the set

at Keeneland. There my.

Friend and really. Really appreciate you jumping

on. I'm sure we'll talk soon.

Always good to see you, Louis. Thanks, Anthony.

There you go, Anthony Pascal from FanDuel, Appreciate him

jumping on the program here. Reminders of programming going

on with us as well Tomorrow morning on ESPN Louisville,

10:20 AM and 10:40 AM Eastern Time back-to-back.

Brian Nadeau from down there at Gulfstream Park and then from

Arkansas Derby land will welcome in Matt Dinerman as part of the

program. He will call the races as always

at Oakland Park as part of the Arkansas Derby card.

We'll talk with him tomorrow. And of course, right back here,

2:00 tomorrow. We'll talk with our guy with

Barry Spears, of course, as we go through Socal Saturdays.

We'll get you ready for all the action out there at Santa Anita

on Saturday as well. Well for Anthony Louis, thanks

for hanging out with us here. I'm a horse racing happy hour

back at it tomorrow with another edition of Socal Saturdays.

Have a great weekend everybody. Yeah.