Florida Derby Preview | Brian Nadeau

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Now here's Louis Rebo. Hi, welcome back in 10:00 hour

TGIF edition of Rebo and Co on ESPN 681057.

Hanging out with you until noon. Fast break Friday with Bobby V

preview the last of the four Sweet 16 games tonight.

Of course, roundtable got that mixtape for you at 5:30.

I'm back out at 6:00 with the Kentucky Racing Spotlight.

And Speaking of racing, we talk now with Brian Nadeau.

He sets the morning lines and he's on the set of the simulcast

down there at Gulfstream Park, kind enough to join us ahead of

tomorrow's 100 point Florida Derby, the grade one of Florida

Derby. And Brian, last time we talked,

we couldn't figure out if Sovereignty was going to want to

run or not. And boy, did he ever want to run

last out there in the fountain of youth.

How are you, man? Yeah, Louis, good to talk to

you. I'm.

I'm good. Yeah.

Boy, was that a Tour de force. And the fountain of youth.

So certainly front and center. And Saturday's Curling Florida

Derby to wrap up. Well, Sunday wraps it up.

But, you know, kind of put a bow on the championship meet down

here and there ain't no deny. And the race goes through him,

that is for sure. That's right, he'll break from

the outside in the Florida Derby and just a really unusual and

unlucky run of jockey health down there, unfortunately,

between Junior Alvarado and of course, so a guy that we got

we've gotten to know really well over the years up here in in

Tyler gaffe Leon Manny Franco's going to be in to ride

sovereignty and there's always questions Brian with a with a

horse that likes to come from off the pace like a sovereignty.

Can a new jock time it with him do those kinds of things?

Is this the kind of case where frankly, he's just the better

horse? And look, we're talking about

Manny Franco. This is still a high level

professional jockey. We're not talking about, you

know, taking a huge step down from junior.

But is that at all a concern for you super?

Thank you. No, not really.

He's won a Florida Derby actually before with, you know,

a little bit ago with his law. So he knows it.

Well, it's I thought it was a little surprising maybe they

didn't go locally, Louis with, you know, someone that rides on

a day in day out basis here. Yeah.

But he's had a lot of success for good Dolphin and wrote a

champion for them last year in immersive.

So, you know, they lead that way and you know, the flow of the

race seems to point to sovereignty.

He he's so much the best horse. But you know, the weird thing is

we talked entering the fountain of youth how, how cranked

Sovereignty was. And I don't think he was all

that cranked. And he won for fun.

And oddly enough, that's the that's the question on Saturday,

how, how, how cranked is he? Because obviously we love our

Derby, but this is not the Derby.

So it'll be interesting. You know, he still has a huge

pedigree and it's not won a grade one race.

So, you know, and it's $1,000,000 and it's damn

important. So the race just so so goes

through him for several, several different reasons.

Yeah, I think and Brian Nadeau with us from Gulfstream Park,

you bring up what I've actually the point that I've been making

on on different shows this week is if this were a grade 2

Louisiana Derby, I think a dolphin would think of it

differently. But because it is that Grade 1

Florida Derby, right? I, I think that, you know, for

them, for breeding purposes as a home bred for them, this makes

sense to me that they'd be, they'd be cranked for a grade

one and then, hey, if he wins the Derby, he wins.

But boy, 20 horses, Who knows what can happen at Louisville?

Yeah, I think that's a great point too.

And they're, they're they're so, you know, into breeding and it's

so important. He's got such a huge pedigree.

So I, I, I, I feel pretty strongly.

He's ready to roll on Saturday. We see a Bob Baffert ship here

first time in a while. We also see a Mike Smith ship

here. I thought actually I was, I was

actually excited for Tyler to ride Matic it Rd.

So this really does throw me off as far as my analysis of this

race. But this is a horse that ran

really well in the Rebel. No one's touching Cold battle as

of late. We'll see tomorrow in the

Arkansas Derby up in in Hot Springs.

But there's a horse that comes in wasn't quite ready for the

the Roger for the robbery. Lewis, excuse me, does run

really well in the Rebel. What do you expect his tactics

to be tomorrow? And do you think he can get up,

you know, get second or third and get in the starting game?

Well, Mike Smith, never, I've seen a supersonic pace that he

doesn't want to be a part of. So I would expect those horses

rolling early on Saturday. I know they did take the

blinkers off, but you know, you saw him going 45 and three in

the Rebel I and it's Bob Baffert.

Bob Baffert doesn't take train horses to come from off the

pace. You know, speed is the weapon

here at some California speed as well.

And I would expect him to be definitely, if not on the lead

involved to be sure. I expect a pretty hot pace in

this Derby on Saturday. Madiket Rd. of course out of the

SF Racing Connections, Authentic and lots of other great horses

as well that have gone on to great things.

I talked with trader Brad Cox on Blood Horse Monday this week and

he I was caught off guard at how upbeat he was about Tappan St.

and obviously an interesting pattern with this horse.

They run him, you know, at the end of last year, the two year

old maiden he wins that comes back in the Holy Bowl.

Brian, there was a moment where I thought he was going to win

that race. Burnham Square, the best horse

that weekend, frankly, in in winning that Holy Bowl.

Great works at Payson Lake. No stunner here.

Brad Cox picks us off right. Yeah, not at all.

I think he's kind of actually coming in a little bit under the

radar too. Chapman St.

This is a pattern. You know, White of Barrio did

this. He skipped the Fountain Youth

after winning the Holy Ball and dominated in the Florida Derby

show. Captain St's got to step up.

He's got to improve. But after two starts and and a

very lightly race campaign, obviously, and a fresh horse,

he's eligible to do that on Saturday.

And you're right, he ran very, very well in the Holy Ball

behind Burnham Square, so you can't take anything away from

him. He's also a horse that on paper,

Louis is supposed to trip out quite nicely in this race

because he doesn't need to be involved early.

He can take back a little bit and see what's happening and

then make the run off the far turn.

Brian Adele with us from down there at Gulfstream Park.

Grade 1 Florida Derby tomorrow. Hunter pointer for the Kentucky

Derby on the trail there. Disruptors in this race as well.

I read Ortiz and Todd Pletcher, a very impressive winner over 7

furlongs, last out there at the beginning of the month.

These are never accidental placements by Todd Pletcher.

I really believe that. Obviously the pedigree, the the

the gun runner on the sire side. Little bit of question on the

damn side of course with the Spitz town, but one that should

be able to get the distance. What do you expect Disruptor to

try to do when we try to see that early pace again, do you

think? I mean, it looks that way,

right? He's chasing in 44 and two.

Last time he's on the lead dueling in 45 and three.

He's never taken back. I don't know why they would do

that on Saturday when speed seems to be his weapon.

Well, boy, just it's a lot, Louis.

And I don't want to speak for the connections, but the chips

have kind of been pushed all in here.

The barn Todd is this is not his let's just be honest.

I think we can all agree this is not the best year for Todd in

terms of three-year olds. He'll probably have some late

developing 3 year olds, but in terms of getting to the Kentucky

Derby, the days are peeling off the calendar pretty quickly and

he's not left with a lot of bullets and he's got a Grande

who I think is probably his best horse disruptor.

Now, to be perfectly fair to when you win by over 9 lengths

and you have a three-year old that's by gun runner, what are

you going to do? You going to wait for a one XI

mean come on, let's be honest here.

So they have to run in this race.

It doesn't mean it doesn't mean they're going to win this race.

I just, it's a lot to me and it's too much too soon.

I'm willing to side against Disruptor and you know, I've

already mentioned the flow of this race.

I don't think it's going to flatter him either.

Sovereignty your top pick here. I'm going to take a real dumb

stab with Jimmy's dailies. I'm going to use I'm going to

use 3A's really tapping St. Sovereignty and Jimmy's dailies.

He he didn't have a fair go of it behind Grande.

Last time he was facing winners, he was trying two turns and he

he unfortunately was the inside speed with a really nice horse

for Todd pressing him the entire way and he held nicely to be

second. He's not he's not going to be on

the lead on Saturday. It was 9 furlongs in that race.

He's got that little feather in his calf.

He's got it for my money. Joel Rosario, you can say a lot

of different things about him, but he's a phenomenal tough

finishing rider that can drag horses home.

And oh, by the way, he's going to be 12 or 15 to 1.

So that's what I'm what I'm doing there.

You know sovereignty rent a one on the furrow grass.

If he even if that again, he'll laugh this field.

You know, somebody's got to really, really improve.

Like I said, those are the three I'm going to use and I'm as much

with them as I am playing against sources like Disruptor

and certainly not a Cat Rd. Jimmy's dailies, of course out

of the Brian Lynch barn already has Owen Almighty in the Derby

field Text on the text line here for you.

Brian on 437-9680 on our UPS jobs text line.

How is the track? I there's been some weather

we've seen them off the turf a little bit.

How is the track? What are you expecting for both

the dirt and the turf tomorrow for the for the race?

Yeah, You know, we took off the turf on Wednesday and Thursday,

you know, and we're fast and firm.

Now the weather could possibly come into play Sunday.

I I hope we're going to be OK tomorrow.

If there's the weather thing tomorrow, it it kind of feels

like it's going to be tomorrow night, not tomorrow racing wise.

So I think we're OK there. The turf to be perfectly honest

with you could have you could needed the rain that we got.

So it'll still be a very fast and very firm turf course on

Saturday. And you know, anybody that's

taken the time to listen to to me and the program knows that

that's been the thing. All meet that fast and firm and

speed has played and I don't expect anything different really

on Saturday. Race 9 is the the Gulfstream

Park Oaks. We should mention this as well

with a spot in the Kentucky Oaks up for grabs as well.

The Queens MG at 9 to 55G at 8:00 to 5:00 have Do we have an

update on who's riding 5G tomorrow?

I have not heard as of yet and, and, and obviously,

unfortunately Tyler Gaffley on the the weird thing is since we

draw so early, yes, right, Tyler and Junior are named all the way

through Sunday. So there's so much bobbing and

weaving going on. I have not heard that yet.

That doesn't mean it's not out there.

I just haven't heard it yet. She's an early speed type.

The Queen's MG likes to sit just off.

Do we kind of expect those two to to to dominate this razor?

Could like a Cassiar? Could someone like that under

Dylan Davis become part of this equation as well?

I've never been a Queen, the Queen's MG fan and she got

really all the best of it. And the Devona Dale, she does

not look like A2 turn horse to me.

So I'm all about 5 GS here and what I'm going to try to do is

get maybe a little value underneath of the exact because

I do think Cassie R is interesting.

I didn't really love her maiden when it came up fast on the

buyers, came up really slow on the Thoroughgrass.

She ran a 12. So I think it remains to be

seen. It was a bit of a blanket finish

too. But hey, this is a Hall of Famer

and Chuck Mcgay, he's saying off of Tampa all out, Tampa win,

he's going to run in the Gulfstream Park Oaks.

I think, you know, you have to sometimes just take things at

face value. That's a lot of confidence from

Chug. So I do think she's interesting.

She's bred to run all day in her pedagogy.

Anna's promise was so good off the claim for Carlos David last

time and she's supposed to sit a nice trip in this race.

Short stretch finish line. But we did back up the starting

gate. So it gives everybody a little

fairer chance. But still Louie, at the end of

the day off the far turn, it's a quick run to the finish line.

I don't think that's going to flatter the Queen's MG and it's

certainly going to flatter 5G who is to me.

I know it's I know it's sappy. I know it's Irad, but I, you

know, I was pretty firm making 5G the favorite here because the

race to me clearly, clearly goes through heart.

Carlos David has Anna's promise on the outside for Luis Saez.

Is she going to be OK from the seven?

Yeah, yeah, that's OK. She's got the speed to get

involved, especially because I don't think Cassiar is is going

to be involved. And you got 1000 to one in there

and what what, what in the literals that doesn't really

seem to be a pace player either. The the elephant in the room on

Saturday and a lot of these races and Anna's Promise is a

great horse to just mention it. A lot of these horses, they're

taking Lasix off because they're running in stakes races on

Saturday and it's just something you've got to prove and there's

a lot of dressed up horses with big figures.

Actually the great another one is Paradise City.

She completely blows up what Lasix added last time.

She's got to prove she can run just as good without it.

She's the one horse in there. So that is a lot of stakes on

Saturday for the three-year olds.

You're going to see Lasix coming off and I, I don't have a, I

can't tell you who's going to be good and who's going to be not,

but I can tell you it's a, it's a thing.

There's no doubt about that. Earlier in the car to Brian

Nadeau with us from Gulfstream Park is the Ghost Efforts Race

7. It's a grade 3.

We see white a barrio in here. And Brian, I try not to get

involved in the in the horse racing Twitter sort of disputes

and different things because I tend to be a rather positive

person and horse racing Twitter is not a positive place.

Yeah, White a Barrio is in here. Well, obviously he won a grade

one earlier this year in the Pegasus World Cup by a billion

lengths, and people are questioning why he's in this

spot. To me, it's simply, hey, get him

back out there, get him in a race, you know, set him up for

either, you know, trips to Saratoga, whatever it might be.

Are are you critical of them running them in this spot or do

you think it makes sense? Not in the least.

I never understood why people tell think they have the right

to tell people where to run their horses or where.

No, they spend the rest of the year telling us no one runs

their horses. Like, hey, shut up.

What about the horses? Yeah, that's a great.

Yeah, that's a great, that's a great, great point as well.

Listen, they said shortly after the the the Pegasus, they didn't

want to go to Dubai, OK? The goal was the races like the

Met Mile and the Whitney and stuff.

And this is a great spot to get him ready for those races.

They don't want to run in a race like the Met Mile off the bench.

OK? So now they've got a perfect

trap. Oh, by the way, he lives 40 feet

away. Why do we want to?

It's dumb to question it because why would they want to ship to

Oakland Park? They don't.

It's going to sound dumb. They don't care about the money,

OK? And I.

Get it? That's.

Right, you know, and I don't mean that in a negative way.

The horses made they're trying to be horse of the year and it's

a big they're. Trying to get.

Back to the Gulf. Stream and.

Yeah, that's right. Exactly.

And and you know, I'm not a Twitter guy.

Louis and I post stuff on my pics on there and that that's

it. I try to see if we can get Pork

Porter Moser to Villanova and that's about all I do on

Twitter. But yeah, so but you he's

running on Florida Derby day. He's the best horse in the

country. Like golf.

Clap for it and and be quiet. I mean, come on.

Power squeezes in here. Are you surprised she keeps

running against the boys? Next question.

I don't, I don't know. I don't know if she's I don't

know if she's running or not. I don't get it.

She's a damn Louis. She's a damn good horse.

I don't know what they're doing. She won the most historic 3 year

old Philly race in the country. Like, what are you doing?

I don't get it. I hope, I hope if she runs on

Saturday, I hope everything goes well and we get to see her in

proper races for older fillies and mares because she's eligible

to be in those proper races and she's eligible to make a dent.

She's the next level behind Torpedo Anna.

So I don't get. It I'm with you, Brian Nadeau

with us, I'll get you out of here on this.

Is there a horse in, say, races like 11 through 13 here ahead of

the Florida Derby that can help us with the late ticket?

Is there one that's either a single or a long shot that you

like? Like is Knightsbridge going to

win his race? Like where?

Where should we be looking in the late sequence?

You know, I'll say this, you're allowed to play against

Knightsbridge, OK? I feel like the brilliant, the

brilliance has worn off a little bit.

I'm going to I'm going to come back and race 12 to in our time.

She should have never lost last time.

I don't know who's riding her. I'm going to come back.

You can be very tight late, Louis.

I mean, you've got a horse in race 13, like the major dude

who's supposed to win the Appleton.

If I had advice to everybody listening, my advice is spread

early on the card and you're allowed to play like $5, pick

four or something late because I think that's not the spot late

where I'm going to be looking for something too funky.

All right, well, he's Brian Nadeau at Brian under score, J

under score Nadeau, odd Twitter. You can find him at Capital OTB

as well. Their sheet is really, really

easy to follow and I really love checking that out, especially

for Aqueduct and Gulfstream plays and of course at

Gulfstream Park for all the great stuff happening down there

tomorrow. Say hi to Sam and and Ron and

all the folks down there. Brian, I'm sure we'll catch up.

Are you making it up for the Preakness this year?

What are you doing? Yeah, to be determined, Blue, I

don't know. You know, last year I went up

and did the the, the morning line kind of stuff.

So we'll see if I get up there or not.

But yeah, it's always fun to catch up with you and I

appreciate you having me. All right.

Brian no problem. They go.

Brian Nadeau down at Gulfstream Park, take a quick break here,

come back, back to hoop stock. We do it next.